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银行业周报:2024Q4主要监管指标发布,国股行业绩边际回暖
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-25 07:46
Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained at "Overweight" [6][11]. Core Views - The banking sector's performance shows marginal recovery in 2024 Q4, with a total net profit of 2.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3%. Large banks and joint-stock banks have shown improved profit growth, while city commercial banks and rural commercial banks face pressure [6][11]. - The asset growth rate of the banking industry has slowed significantly due to debt resolution and insufficient credit demand. As of the end of Q4 2024, the banking industry's assets grew by 6.5% year-on-year, with large commercial banks at 7.6% and joint-stock commercial banks at 4.7% [6][29]. - Loan growth has also slowed, with a year-on-year increase of 7.6% in Q4 2024. Large banks, joint-stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks saw loan growth rates of 9.0%, 4.2%, 8.1%, and 7.6%, respectively [7][29]. - The net interest margin for commercial banks was relatively stable at 1.52%, with a slight decrease of 1 basis point quarter-on-quarter and a decrease of 17 basis points year-on-year. The expected decline in net interest margin for 2025 is anticipated to be less than in 2024 due to deposit repricing [7][31]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The banking index fell by 0.65%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.53 percentage points. Large banks and joint-stock banks performed relatively better [3][14]. Funding Market - Short-term funding rates have risen, with the central bank's net withdrawal of 18.2 billion yuan. The average rates for various borrowing terms have increased, indicating a tightening funding environment [20][22]. Industry Dynamics - The banking sector's performance indicators for Q4 2024 show a marginal recovery, with large banks and joint-stock banks improving their profit growth. The overall asset growth has slowed, and the loan growth rate has also decreased, particularly for city commercial banks [6][29]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on two main lines: first, high-quality regional banks are expected to provide higher dynamic dividend yields during economic recovery; second, state-owned large banks still hold significant high dividend value. The industry rating remains "Overweight" [11][36].
钢铁行业周报:需求恢复,累库放缓
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-25 07:46
Group 1 - Industry Investment Rating: Maintain "Overweight" [3] - Core Viewpoint: Demand recovery and inventory accumulation slowing down [6][8] - Recent Industry Performance: Steel sector increased by 0.33%, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.67 percentage points [5] Group 2 - Supply Data: As of February 21, iron and steel production decreased slightly, with a total output of 2.2744 million tons, and a blast furnace operating rate of 77.66% [6] - Demand Data: Weekly apparent consumption of five major steel products reached 7.9438 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 19.77%, driven by a significant rise in construction material consumption [6][45] - Inventory Data: Total inventory of five major steel products was 18.642 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 2.3%, indicating a slowdown in inventory accumulation [6] Group 3 - Price and Profitability: Prices for major steel products showed a slight increase, while the profitability of sample steel enterprises decreased to 49.8% [7][8] - Investment Suggestions: Short-term market recovery is expected, with a focus on green steel enterprises and leading companies with scale advantages for long-term investment [8][56]
药品行业周报:创新药支付端支持政策有望加快落地,持续看好板块投资机会-2025-02-25
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-25 07:31
证券研究报告 2025 年 2 月 23 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 药品行业周报 创新药支付端支持政策有望加快落地,持续看好板 块投资机会 ——药品行业周报(2.17-2.23) 相关研究: | 1.《AI赋能医药创新加速,关注板块 | | --- | | 重估投资机会》 2025.2.17 | | 2.《政策持续支持创新药,首版丙类 | | 医保目录年内推出》 2025.1.22 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 3.8 -1.9 -13.3 绝对收益 8.4 1.0 0.7 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 医药生物 沪深300 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:张德燕 证书编号:S0500521120003 Tel:(8621) 50295326 Email:zhangdy@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 核心要点 ❑ 国内医药生物上涨 1.88%,创新产业链修复显著 上周医药生物上涨 1.88%,位列全市场一级行业涨幅第 9 位,跑输万得全 A 0.18 pp。 ...
汉钟精机(002158):事件点评:公司发布2024年业绩快报,四季度净利润降幅收窄
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-25 07:09
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a net profit growth for 2024 despite a decline in revenue, with a net profit of approximately 880 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [3] - The decline in revenue is attributed to adjustments in the photovoltaic industry, which affected the sales of vacuum pump equipment [4] - The company has improved its operating profit margin by 1.7 percentage points to 28.2% through refined management strategies [4] - Future growth is expected from the refrigeration and air compressor business, as well as expansion in the semiconductor sector and after-sales maintenance services [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of approximately 3.70 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to the parent company was approximately 880 million yuan, with a basic earnings per share of about 1.65 yuan, reflecting a 2.2% increase [3] - The company forecasts operating revenues of 3.70 billion, 3.83 billion, and 4.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 880 million, 930 million, and 1.04 billion yuan [5][7]
1月金融数据点评:企业信贷需求大幅改善
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-21 08:26
湘财证券股份有限公司 XIANGCAI SECURITIES CO.,LTD | 证券研究报告 | 2025年2月20日 | 湘财证券研究所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 宏观研究 | | 宏观月度数据点评 | 企业信贷需求大幅改善 相关研究: 1. 《债券融资再度发力,M1同 比继续下行》 2024.06.18 2. 《M1同比连续三个月负增 长》 2024.07.16 《新增社融表现偏弱,M2同 3. 比上涨》 2024.10.15 4. 《M1同比大幅改善》 核心要点: 1 月 M1 同比增速录得 0.4%,较前值下降 0.8 个百分点;M2 同比增速为 7.0%,较前值下降0.3个百分点。M1、M2 剪刀差有所扩大。 □ 事件 2025年 1 月新增社会融资规模 7.06 万亿元,前值 2.85 万亿元;M1 同比 增速为 0.4%, M2 同比增速为 7.0%。 ロ 新增社融迎来开门红 1月新增社会融资规模同比多增 5833 亿元。其中亮点在于新增人民币贷 款成为当月的主要支撑项,社融口径下新增人民币贷款同比多增近 3800 亿,而在此之前新增人民币贷款的表现一直欠佳,这是实体经济 ...
银行业绩快报披露,经营表现好于预期
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-20 07:16
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking industry, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [22]. Core Insights - The performance of 16 banks exceeded expectations, with revenue growth showing significant improvement. The average revenue growth rate increased by 2% quarter-on-quarter and showed year-on-year improvements for many banks [8][18]. - Asset quality remains stable, with most banks maintaining or slightly improving their non-performing loan ratios. The report highlights that the overall asset quality is solid, with banks continuing to release provisions [17][18]. Summary by Sections 1. Bank Revenue Growth Exceeds Expectations - As of now, 16 banks have disclosed their performance reports, with an average revenue growth rate of 2% quarter-on-quarter and improvements year-on-year. Notable banks with significant revenue growth include Zhengzhou Bank (+7.8%) and Xiamen Bank (+5.9%) [8][7]. - Net profit growth also saw a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2%, although year-on-year growth remains under pressure. Zhengzhou Bank led with a net profit growth of +19.3% [8][7]. 2. Steady Growth in Scale and Stable Asset Quality - The report indicates that asset growth for 2024 is led by Jiangsu Bank (16.1%) and Suzhou Bank (15.3%), with a noticeable regional disparity in asset growth [14]. - Loan growth showed a recovery trend, with six out of thirteen banks reporting an increase in loan growth rates. The average deposit growth rate for thirteen banks improved by 1.8% [16][18]. - The non-performing loan ratios for most banks remained stable or slightly decreased, indicating a solid asset quality. The report notes that banks are still releasing provisions, with a focus on maintaining adequate coverage [17][18]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that with the acceleration of fiscal policies and improved financing mechanisms for small and micro enterprises, bank loan growth is expected to remain steady. The performance of quality regional banks is anticipated to show greater resilience, potentially offering higher dynamic dividend yields [22]. - It emphasizes two main investment themes: the potential for high dividend yields from quality regional banks and the significant value of large state-owned banks [22].
上周行业大幅跑输基准,钕铁硼价格涨后趋稳
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-20 02:30
证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 稀土永磁行业周报 上周行业大幅跑输基准,钕铁硼价格涨后趋稳 相关研究: | 《上周稀土原料价格全面上调,成本端支撑 | | | --- | --- | | 下钕铁硼价坚挺上行》 | 20250211 | | 《节前行业小幅上涨,成本端支撑尚可,钕 | | | 铁硼价格趋稳》 | 20250206 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -6 0 27 绝对收益 -3 -3 45 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:王攀 证书编号:S0500520120001 Tel:(8621) 50293524 Email:wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点: ❑ 市场行情:上周稀土永磁材料行业下跌 5.31%,跑输基准 6.5pct 上周稀土永磁行业大跌 5.31%,跑输基准(沪深 300)6.5pct。行业估值 (市盈率 TTM)回落 4.76x 至 84.83x,当前处于 97.5%历史分位。 ❑ 上周 ...
锂电材料行业周报:上周正极材料开工下降,负极材料成本上行持续压缩利润-20250319
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-20 02:30
证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 锂电材料行业周报 上周正极材料开工下降,负极材料成本上行持续压缩利润 相关研究: | 《上周行业反弹,节后各环节价格多维持平 | | | --- | --- | | 稳,供需缓慢恢复》 | 20250212 | | 《节前行业小幅跑输基准,各环节供需均有 | | | 所收缩》 | 20250206 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 3 -9 -5 绝对收益 6 -11 12 分析师:王攀 证书编号:S0500520120001 Tel:(8621) 50293524 Email:wangpan2@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼湘财证券研 究所 核心要点: ❑ 市场行情:上周锂电材料行业上涨 1.93%,跑赢基准 0.74pct 上周锂电材料行业上涨 1.93%,跑赢基准(沪深 300)0.74pct。行业估值 (市盈率 TTM)回升 0.64x 至 33.98x,当前处于 32.3%历史分位。 ❑ 正极材料:三元前驱体价格持稳,碳酸锂 ...
多款疫苗获新进展,关注强研发力企业
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-20 02:30
证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 18 日 湘财证券研究所 行业研究 疫苗行业周报 多款疫苗获新进展,关注强研发力企业 核心要点: ❑ 市场表现:上周疫苗上涨 2.46%,涨幅居中 1. 《短期关注年报业绩,长期关 注创新及出海》20250122 2. 《节后医药行业迎来普涨,疫 苗涨幅居中》20250212 行业评级:增持 近十二个月行业表现 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 24/02 24/05 24/08 24/11 沪深300_累计 疫苗_累计 | % | 1 个月 | 3 个月 | 12 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 相对收益 | 1 | -9 | -42 | | 绝对收益 | 4 | -7 | -29 | 注:相对收益与沪深 300 相比 分析师:许雯 证书编号:S0500517110001 Tel:021-50293534 Email:xw3315@xcsc.com 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 中国人寿金融中心10楼 上周(2025.02.10-2025.02.14)医药生物报收 7368.1 点,上涨 2.71%;原料药报 收 9058.4 ...
信贷“开门红”,对公贷款如期回暖
Xiangcai Securities· 2025-02-20 02:28
行业研究 银行业数据点评 证券研究报告 2025 年 02 月 17 日 湘财证券研究所 信贷"开门红" ,对公贷款如期回暖 | 1.《增量政策推进,关注银行配置 | | | --- | --- | | 价值》 | 2024.11.10 | | 2.《自律机制规范存款定价,缓解 | | | 银行息差压力》 | 2024.12.03 | | 3.《2025年度策略:积极政策下的 | | | 股息选择》 | 2024.12.19 | | 4.《宽信用力度有望加强,银行股 | | | 高股息优势延续》 | 2025.01.07 | 行业评级:增持(维持) 近十二个月行业表现 % 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 相对收益 -1.60 9.03 9.74 分析师:郭怡萍 证书编号:S0500523080002 Tel:(8621) 50295327 Email:guoyp@xcsc.com 中国人寿金融中心10楼 相关研究: 核心要点: M1 口径调整,非银存款增长趋缓 地址:上海市浦东新区银城路88号 1 月,M1 同比增长 0.4%,M1 口径在 1 月发生调整,新口径下 M1 不再反 映个人活期存款向企业活期存款 ...