证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 外部不确定性加剧，"两会"政策指引助力中国资产价值重估 外部不确定性加剧：美国主要股指自今年 2 月中旬以来持续调整。2 月 14 日 -3 月 11 日，纳斯达克指数、标普 500 指数、道琼斯指数分别调整-12.94%%、 -8.87%、-6.99%。近期海外不确定性因素有所加剧，包括特朗普关税政策的 巨大不确定性，美国政府债台高筑且物价下降缓慢，政府效率部工作进展可 能引发人事震动等。美股开启大幅调整的重要催化，主要在于近期美国公布 的多项经济数据指标都暗示了滞涨甚至衰退的潜在可能。 如何看待美股科技股回调：本轮美国科技股的 risk off 可能已经"蓄谋已久"。 如果观察 2023 年开启的 AI 行情的最大受益者英伟达，其股价在 2024 年 6 月 20 日突破 140 美元关口后，已经经历了一个较长周期的震荡行情，虽然 在今年年初一度创下历史新高，但动量较过去两年已经显著走弱。从中长期 来看，AI 叙事以及财政赤字大幅增长这两个美股过去两年大涨的主要驱动力 也正在松动。美股科技股的阵痛期可能仍未结束。 海外资 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a forecasted stock price increase of 5% to 15% relative to the industry index over the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue growth of 19% and a net profit growth of 20% in 2024, with projected revenues of 24.006 billion yuan and net profits of 3.841 billion yuan [1][4]. - The company has established a partnership with Adidas starting in 2024, which is anticipated to enhance its customer base and revenue streams [2]. - The company has expanded its production capacity with new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, contributing to a 17.53% increase in sneaker sales in 2024, totaling 223 million pairs sold [3]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported revenues of 20.569 billion yuan in 2022, with a slight decline to 20.114 billion yuan in 2023, followed by a projected increase to 24.006 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - **Net Profit**: The net profit was 3.228 billion yuan in 2022, slightly decreased to 3.200 billion yuan in 2023, and is expected to rise to 3.841 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: The EPS is projected to increase from 2.77 yuan in 2022 to 3.29 yuan in 2024 [1][4]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: The P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 23.4 in 2022 to 19.6 in 2024, indicating improved valuation [1][4]. Production and Market Expansion - The company has successfully launched three new factories in Vietnam and is expanding its production capabilities in Indonesia and China to mitigate geopolitical risks [3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its customer structure and expanding production capacity in response to customer demand and growth plans [2].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 13 日 联科科技（001207.SZ） 2024 年公司利润快速增长，看好高压导电炭黑项目应用领域拓展 | 财务指标 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 1,917 | 2,266 | 2,993 | 3,329 | 3,925 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 4.4 | 18.2 | 32.1 | 11.2 | 17.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 169 | 272 | 352 | 433 | 551 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | 51.3 | 61.5 | 29.3 | 23.0 | 27.3 | | ROE（%） | 9.7 | 14.5 | 16.3 | 17.2 | 18.3 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.83 | 1.34 | 1.74 | 2.14 | 2.72 | | P/E（倍） | 26.1 | 16.2 | 12.5 | 10.2 | 8.0 | | P/B ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a stock price increase of over 15% relative to the industry index in the next six months [3][17]. Core Views - The company has exceeded expectations in its closing performance, with a reported revenue of 18.56 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 5.95%, and a net profit of 1.83 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [1]. - The company focuses on differentiated operations, achieving a revenue of 11.07 billion yuan from photovoltaic products, despite a year-on-year decline of 13.36%, while shipments increased by 73% to 17.2 GW [2]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 20.91 billion yuan, 24.02 billion yuan, and 26.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside net profits of 2.05 billion yuan, 2.27 billion yuan, and 2.54 billion yuan [7]. Financial Summary - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 19.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.82 billion yuan, with a return on equity (ROE) of 19.9% [1]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.26 yuan, 1.40 yuan, and 1.56 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 12.0, 10.8, and 9.7 [7]. - The company’s magnetic materials segment contributed 4.58 billion yuan in revenue, with a gross margin of 27.32%, while the lithium battery segment achieved a revenue of 2.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 56% [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业动态点评 2025 年 03 月 13 日 通信 禾赛激光雷达全年出货量大幅增长，车载、机器人激光雷达市场景 气度高增 事件：3 月 11 日，据禾赛科技官方公众号，公司公布了 2024 年第四季度以 及全年未经审计的财务数据，收入创历史新高，成为全球首家且唯一实现全 年盈利的上市激光雷达企业，展现我国在激光雷达领域的领先能力。 禾赛科技全年业绩实现强劲增长，2025 年交货量有望飙升 2倍以上。2024 年，据禾赛科技官方公众号，公司以强劲的财务表现和市场表现，收入创历 史新高，稳居行业榜首，年度交付量连续 4 年翻倍，成为全球首家且唯一实 现全年盈利的上市激光雷达企业，也是全球首家全年经营和净现金流为正的 上市激光雷达企业。公司在 2024 年实现全年营收 20.8 亿元，其中第四季度 营收 7.2 亿元。全年激光雷达总交付量为 501,889 台，同比增长 126.0%；其 中第四季度交付量达 222,054 台，同比大幅增长 153.1%。公司在 Q4 斩获至 今为止海外前装量产激光雷达领域规模最大的订单，与一家欧洲顶级主机厂 达成了多年独家定点合作，覆盖其燃油车和新能源汽车的多 ...

证券研究报告|投资策略研究*专题报告 2025 年 03 月 13 日 投资策略研究 中美对弈升级,聚焦贸易和科技 事件:年初至今特朗普宣布对中国商品征收两轮 10%的关税,中国迅速从关 税、出口管制、法律诉讼等方面进行反击。中美对弈升级,或从贸易摩擦扩 散至科技竞争。 贸易摩擦:风险犹在但可控。特朗普开启贸易摩擦的目的,提升美国内部供 应链安全,预防未来地缘突变导致的极端尾部风险。第二任期,特朗普政府 "制造业回流"的战略地位进一步提升,执行层面或加码,态度坚决,通过 维持各进口国的高关税或吸纳千亿级别的对美投资,构建美国制造业体系。 美对华关税或存在进一步提升空间,但考虑到对内减税和对外关税的关联度, 作者 分析师 汪毅 执业证书编号:S1070512120003 邮箱:yiw@cgws.com 分析师 简宇涵 执业证书编号:S1070524080001 邮箱:jianyuhan@cgws.com 相关研究 1、《政策支持+行业突破 -- 周度策略行业配置观点》 空间有限。 贸易摩擦:综合分析下,在高关税下,消费电子、轻工制造(家具、玩具) 受影响程度较大,而工程机械、白色家电受影响程度相对较小。如何分析 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" with expectations for the overall industry performance to surpass the market in the next six months [17]. Core Insights - The "Weight Management Year" initiative aims to promote healthy eating habits and increase awareness of weight management among the population, with a focus on functional foods [1]. - Functional foods related to weight management include meal replacements, general functional foods, and health supplements, utilizing ingredients like nutrients, plant extracts, and compounds such as L-carnitine [2]. - The report highlights the role of probiotics in weight management by improving gut health and metabolism, recommending companies like Keta Bio [3]. - Oats and dairy products are emphasized as advantageous meal replacements due to their nutritional benefits and health claims [4]. - The concept of "food and medicine homology" is explored, with traditional Chinese medicine ingredients being integrated into food products to meet health and dietary needs [5]. - The report suggests that the promotion of healthy eating concepts will directly benefit functional food sectors, with a particular emphasis on the role of traditional Chinese medicine in dietary adjustments [5]. Summary by Sections - **Functional Foods**: The report identifies meal replacements, functional foods, and health supplements as key categories, with specific ingredients highlighted for their benefits in weight management [2]. - **Probiotics**: Probiotics are noted for their positive impact on gut health and fat metabolism, with specific strains recommended for their effectiveness [3]. - **Meal Replacements**: Oats and dairy products are recognized for their health benefits and suitability as meal replacements, with specific companies recommended for investment [4]. - **Traditional Chinese Medicine**: The integration of traditional Chinese medicine into food products is discussed, highlighting its dual value in nutrition and health [5]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The report recommends focusing on companies in the health food sector, including Keta Bio, Yili, New Dairy, and traditional medicine companies like Tongrentang [8].

证券研究报告 | 公司动态点评 2025 年 03 月 11 日 鸿日达（301285.SZ） 积极打造 3D 打印等新业务增长曲线，半导体散热片产能加速释放 助力公司业绩提升 | 财务指标 | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入（百万元） | 594 | 721 | 877 | 1,239 | 1,721 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -3.9 | 21.3 | 21.7 | 41.2 | 38.9 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 49 | 31 | 55 | 132 | 211 | | 增长率 yoy（%） | -21.4 | -37.0 | 76.3 | 141.3 | 59.9 | | ROE（%） | 4.9 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 10.9 | 14.9 | | EPS 最新摊薄（元） | 0.24 | 0.15 | 0.26 | 0.64 | 1.02 | | P/E（倍） | 148.8 | 236.1 | 133.9 | 55.5 | 34.7 | ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 03 月 11 日 机械 具身智能首次写入政府工作报告，2 月挖机内销同比+99.4% 行业要闻：具身智能首次写入政府工作报告。3 月 5 日，2025《政府工作报 告》提到，建立未来产业投入增长机制，培育生物制造、量子科技、具身智 能、6G 等未来产业。另一边，《政府工作报告》也提及，大力发展智能网联 新能源汽车、人工智能手机和电脑、智能机器人等新一代智能终端以及智能 制造装备。相比起 2024 年的《政府工作报告》中提到的"深化大数据、人 工智能等研发应用，开展'人工智能+'行动，打造具有国际竞争力的数字 产业集群"，具身智能和智能机器人是首次出现在《政府工作报告》当中， 这也体现了我国科技制造领域，从数字技术赋能向"智能+实体"融合方向 的演进。 深圳发布具身智能行动计划。3 月 3 日，深圳发布《深圳市具身智能机器人 技术创新与产业发展行动计划（2025—2027 年）》。《行动计划》提出，到 2027 年，在机器人关键核心零部件、AI 芯片、人工智能与机器人融合技术、 多模态感知技术、高精度运动控制技术、灵巧操作技术等方面取得突破。新 增培育估值过百亿企业 ...

Investment Rating - The automotive sector is rated as "Overweight" with a recommendation to increase holdings in specific stocks [1][48]. Core Insights - The automotive sector experienced a 3.08% increase from March 3 to March 7, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.69 percentage points [9][37]. - The passenger vehicle retail sales in February are expected to reach 1.4 million units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 26% but a month-on-month decline of 22% [6][39]. - The release of Geely's "Qianli Haohan" intelligent driving system marks a significant advancement in high-level autonomous driving technology [3][39]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The automotive sector's performance includes a 0.68% increase in the passenger vehicle segment, a 1.42% increase in the commercial vehicle segment, and a 2.67% increase in the truck segment, while the bus segment saw a decline of 0.89% [9][37]. - The automotive parts sector rose by 5%, and the automotive services sector increased by 2.21%, both outperforming the CSI 300 index [9][37]. Valuation Levels - As of March 3, 2025, the automotive industry's PE-TTM stands at 28.92, up by 0.81 from the previous week [10][38]. - The valuations for sub-sectors are as follows: passenger vehicles at 31.53, commercial vehicles at 37.02, and parts at 25.96 [10][38]. New Developments - Geely's "Qianli Haohan" system includes features like high-speed NOA and automatic parking, with plans for a large-scale rollout in March 2025 [3][39]. - In February, the wholesale of passenger vehicles reached 1.781 million units, a 35% year-on-year increase [6][39]. Raw Material Prices - As of March 7, 2025, the prices for key raw materials are as follows: aluminum index at 20,847.07, copper index at 78,223.6, rebar index at 3,266.92, and rubber index at 17,431.15, with respective weekly changes of 0.93%, 1.8%, -2.2%, and -1.8% [19][38].