Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Convertible Bond Index Sampling Replication **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to replicate the performance of the benchmark convertible bond index by maintaining consistency in key characteristics such as stock-bond nature, industry distribution, and market capitalization distribution. It uses a simplified grouping and sampling method to achieve effective replication with reduced complexity[2][13][19] **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the sample space as all publicly issued convertible bonds listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges, with a listing period exceeding 10 working days and a bond balance of at least 30 million yuan[19] 2. Categorize convertible bonds into three types based on their "flat premium rate" (calculated as $ \text{Flat Premium Rate} = \frac{\text{Convertible Value}}{\text{Pure Bond Value}} - 1 $): - **Bond-oriented**: Flat premium rate < -20% - **Balanced**: Flat premium rate between -20% and 20% - **Stock-oriented**: Flat premium rate > 20%[13][19] 3. Group the convertible bonds by flat premium rate and industry classification (based on Shenwan Level 1 industry), resulting in 93 subgroups (3 flat premium categories × 31 industries)[19] 4. Within each subgroup, rank the bonds by the market capitalization of their underlying stocks and select approximately 20% of the bonds near the median market capitalization (10% above and below the median)[19][20] 5. Adjust holdings quarterly, equally weight the selected bonds, and account for transaction costs (0.12% on both sides)[20] **Model Evaluation**: The model is simple, easy to implement, and achieves good replication results with a tracking error of approximately 2% since the second half of 2023[2][20] Model Backtesting Results - **Convertible Bond Index Sampling Replication**: - **Annualized Tracking Error**: Approximately 2% since 2023H2[2][20] - **Impact of Sampling Ratio**: Increasing the sampling ratio reduces tracking error. For example, sampling 40% of the bonds results in a tracking error of 1.5% since 2022[25][27] - **Liquidity**: The daily average trading volume of the sampling portfolio accounts for approximately 17% of the benchmark index's trading volume since 2020, ensuring sufficient liquidity[32] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: Flat Premium Rate **Factor Construction Idea**: The flat premium rate measures the stock-bond nature of convertible bonds, which significantly impacts their price behavior. It categorizes bonds into three types based on their risk-return characteristics[13][19] **Factor Construction Process**: - Formula: $ \text{Flat Premium Rate} = \frac{\text{Convertible Value}}{\text{Pure Bond Value}} - 1 $ - Classification: - **Bond-oriented**: Flat premium rate < -20% - **Balanced**: Flat premium rate between -20% and 20% - **Stock-oriented**: Flat premium rate > 20%[13][19] **Factor Evaluation**: Different types of convertible bonds exhibit distinct risk-return profiles, with bond-oriented bonds being the most stable and stock-oriented bonds having the highest elasticity[13][15] Factor Backtesting Results - **Flat Premium Rate Factor**: - **Bond-oriented Convertible Bonds**: - Annualized Return: 9.6% - Annualized Volatility: 8.7% - Maximum Drawdown: 12.1% - Sharpe Ratio: 1.10[15] - **Balanced Convertible Bonds**: - Annualized Return: 9.1% - Annualized Volatility: 12.9% - Maximum Drawdown: 20.2% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.74[15] - **Stock-oriented Convertible Bonds**: - Annualized Return: 11.5% - Annualized Volatility: 21.7% - Maximum Drawdown: 38.3% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.61[15]

Monetary Policy Insights - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) anticipates limited incremental monetary policy adjustments due to a temporary easing in US-China relations[1] - The central bank emphasizes optimizing policy tools while focusing on the relationship between existing and new financial resources[2] - The new monetary policy corridor mechanism centers around a 7-day reverse repo rate of 1.5%, with upper and lower limits set at 2% and 1.3% respectively, resulting in a narrowed corridor width of 70 basis points[4] Capital Market Support Tools - Two market-oriented tools have been introduced to support the stock market, allowing banks to decide on loans based on market conditions[7] - As of January 2025, the swap facility has conducted operations totaling 105 billion yuan, with listed companies disclosing plans to repurchase shares amounting to nearly 60 billion yuan[9] Structural Adjustments and Social Stability - The focus of re-lending has shifted from economic growth to structural adjustments and social stability, particularly supporting technology innovation and employment for key groups[11] - The balance of entrepreneurial guarantee loans reached 293.5 billion yuan as of Q1 2024, reflecting a 0.2% year-on-year growth, while student loans increased by 26.3% year-on-year to 208.6 billion yuan by Q3 2024[12] Pension Finance Development - The PBOC aims to establish a long-term mechanism for pension finance, emphasizing the importance of the silver economy and innovative financial products to meet diverse pension needs[13] - By 2028, a comprehensive pension finance system is expected to be established, with a focus on high-quality development in the sector[13] Risk Considerations - Potential fluctuations in the US economy and Federal Reserve policy expectations may impact China's exchange rate and international balance of payments[14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba [4]. Core Insights - Alibaba is positioned as a low-valuation, high-growth potential star in the market, focusing on its core businesses of e-commerce, cloud, and logistics [2][7]. - The company has made significant organizational adjustments to stabilize revenue growth in its Taobao and Tmall businesses, while also enhancing shareholder returns [2][18]. - The Qwen AI model is recognized for its leading capabilities internationally, with expectations for accelerated growth in the intelligent cloud business due to advancements in AI [2][45]. Summary by Sections Business Focus and Revenue Stability - Alibaba has restructured to focus on e-commerce, cloud, and logistics, with core business revenue accounting for over 73% of total income [19][24]. - The Taobao and Tmall group's revenue is expected to stabilize, driven by improved operations and a return of small and medium merchants [2][18]. - The company has successfully maintained its GMV share, with recent quarters showing growth exceeding that of the overall retail market [28][30]. AI and Cloud Business Growth - The Qwen model is among the top in international rankings, contributing positively to the cloud business's revenue growth [46][51]. - The intelligent cloud business is projected to see significant revenue increases, with expected growth rates of 10%, 18%, and 18% for FY2025-2027 [62]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 997.2 billion, 1,068.6 billion, and 1,147.3 billion CNY, with corresponding growth rates of 6%, 7%, and 7% [61]. - The forecasted net profit for the same period is 145.5 billion, 164.4 billion, and 183.2 billion CNY, with growth rates of 82%, 13%, and 11% [61][63]. - The DCF valuation method suggests a target price of 133.94 HKD per share, supporting the "Buy" rating [11][65].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The composite current collector industry is entering a new stage of industrialization, with a low overall penetration rate that is expected to benefit from rapid increases in penetration in the future [2][5] - The composite aluminum foil has been adopted by end vehicle manufacturers, and it is anticipated to see further growth in 2025 due to cost reduction and capacity expansion [5] - The composite copper foil is expected to reach a significant production milestone in 2025, driven by advancements in technology and increased production capacity [5] Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions - Focus on leading composite current collector material manufacturers such as Putailai (power equipment), Baoming Technology (electronics), and leading companies in water electroplating equipment like Dongwei Technology (machinery) and welding technology like Jiaocheng Ultrasonic (power equipment) [2] Industry Development - The composite current collector is a new type of lithium battery material designed to enhance battery safety and energy density, featuring a "metal conductive layer - PET/PP polymer support layer - metal conductive layer" sandwich structure [5] - Major players like CATL and Jinmei New Materials have been pioneers in this field, with significant patent developments and commercial applications since 2015 [5] Market Trends - The composite aluminum foil is primarily produced using vacuum deposition technology, with domestic manufacturers collaborating with international firms to enhance production capabilities [5] - The composite copper foil production involves a complex process, and several domestic equipment manufacturers have established significant production capacity [5] Financial Projections - Key companies in the composite current collector sector have varying profit forecasts and valuations, with Putailai projected to have a net profit of 22.5 billion in 2025 and a PE ratio decreasing from 23.4 in 2023 to 15.0 in 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3][22]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a deepened partnership with Huawei, focusing on digital transformation and intelligent logistics, which enhances its prospects in smart manufacturing and logistics [7]. - The company has seen a significant increase in international revenue, with a 20% year-on-year growth, contributing to 39% of total revenue [7]. - The electric forklift sales have reached 63% of total sales, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the industry [7]. - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 grew by 11.63% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of lithium battery forklifts and international business [7]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024-2026 is expected to grow by 8%, 11%, and 10% respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12, 11, and 10 [7]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 17,471 million yuan, with a growth rate of 11.47%. For 2024, the revenue is expected to be 17,782 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.78% [3][21]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is estimated at 1,278 million yuan, with a significant increase of 40.89%. The projections for 2024 and 2025 are 1,384 million yuan and 1,533 million yuan, respectively [3][21]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is expected to be 1.43 yuan, increasing to 1.55 yuan in 2024 and 1.72 yuan in 2025 [3][21]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 16.34% in 2023, declining slightly to 15.41% in 2024 [3][21]. Industry Context - The company has a competitive position in the engineering machinery sector, with a focus on international expansion and electrification trends [7]. - The overall market for forklifts has shown positive growth, with domestic sales increasing by 9.7% year-on-year in December 2024 [15][16].

我们认为，用户侧需关注的 API 安全防护方向包括： ❑ 多家安全厂商接入大模型，开启"AI+安全"双向赋能新范式 多家安全厂商宣布将 DeepSeek 模型集成至自身安全产品中，实现"AI+安全" 的双向赋能。 投资要点 ❑ DeepSeek 遭受网络攻击，暴露大模型安全防护需求 近期 DeepSeek 遭受的持续性网络攻击，揭示了 AI 大模型在数据安全领域的核心 风险。攻击者通过 DDoS 攻击、僵尸网络（如 HailBot 和 RapperBot）及暴力破解 等手段，不仅导致服务中断，更可能引发用户数据泄露风险。例如，攻击期间曾 出现 ClickHouse 数据库泄露事件，涉及用户聊天记录、API 密钥等敏感信息。此 外，思科研究团队发现，DeepSeek-R1 模型在提示词干扰测试中攻击成功率达 100%，暴露出模型自身在内容安全过滤和逻辑隔离方面的漏洞。 ❑ API 安全成为用户侧防护的核心挑战，需构建多层防御体系 在大模型使用过程中，API 接口成为攻击者重点目标。攻击者利用 HTTP 代理攻 击、僵尸网络请求等手段，通过 API 接口发起海量调用，导致服务资源耗尽，甚 至触发算力资源黑洞效应。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Insights - The report highlights the growth potential of the HNB market, with IQOS leading the market with over 70% share, indicating strong performance and industry growth [1] - The report anticipates a double-digit growth for IQOS sales in 2025, with a projected increase of 10-12% year-on-year [2][5] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 5%, 12%, and 17% for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profit forecasts showing a recovery in 2025 and 2026 [6] Summary by Sections HNB Market Growth - The HNB penetration rate in Japan is expected to reach 47.1% by December 2024, up 4.1 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The U.S. HNB market is set to open, with IQOS devices expected to be sold directly in Austin, Texas starting March 2025 [1] - The gross margin for smoke-free products increased by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year to 66.6% in Q4 2024, outperforming traditional tobacco products [1] User Growth and Market Expansion - The number of IQOS users reached 32.2 million in 2024, with a conversion rate maintained at 72% [3] - The smoke-free product revenue for 2024 is projected at $14.7 billion, reflecting a 14.2% increase [3] - The smoke-free product series is now available in 95 markets, with an estimated 38.6 million users [2] New Product Performance - The new oral nicotine product ZYN saw a 24.6% increase in sales, reaching 17.4 billion units in 2024 [4] - ZYN's shipments in the U.S. grew significantly, with Q4 2024 shipments reaching 165 million cans, a 42% increase [4] - The international market for ZYN is expanding rapidly, with shipments outside the U.S. exceeding 100% growth [4] Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are $11.78 billion, $13.16 billion, and $15.44 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.33 billion, $1.70 billion, and $2.24 billion [6][13] - The company is expected to maintain a P/E ratio of 59.71X, 46.47X, and 35.42X for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The establishment of a humanoid robot subsidiary is expected to open a second growth curve for the company, with a registered capital of 20 million yuan, focusing on the research, sales, and manufacturing of intelligent robots [1] - The demand for humanoid robots is anticipated to grow significantly, with a projected total demand of approximately 2.03 million units in the manufacturing and domestic service sectors in China and the US by 2030, representing a market space of about 318.5 billion yuan [1] - The company is a leader in intelligent packaging equipment, with core technologies in mechanical automation and intelligent control systems, which are highly compatible with humanoid robots [1] - The global packaging equipment market is expected to grow from 55.1 billion USD in 2023 to 77.7 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 3.9%, positioning the company to benefit as a domestic leader [2] - The company is focusing on product upgrades, category expansion, and domestic substitution, which are expected to enhance its competitive moat [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 3.33 billion, 3.965 billion, and 4.91 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.94%, 18.96%, and 23.86% respectively [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 0.18 billion, 1.86 billion, and 2.70 billion yuan for the same period, with significant growth rates of -74%, 922%, and 45% respectively [4] - The corresponding P/E ratios are projected to be 284, 28, and 19 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guomai Culture is "Buy" (first-time rating) [3] Core Views - Guomai Culture is a rare investment target driven by "AI technology + film IP," with the AI proofreading tool reducing costs and increasing efficiency in the publishing industry, alongside the strong IP animation film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," expected to drive a revenue growth of 40% in 2025, with significant growth potential exceeding expectations from both technology monetization and content commercialization [1][6] Summary by Sections AI Technology: Core Driver for Publishing Industry Upgrade - The AI proofreading tool addresses the high standards of proofreading in the publishing industry, with a predicted market size of 5 billion yuan for proofreading services [2][31] - The AI proofreading tool's speed has improved from approximately 280 characters per second to about 600 characters per second as of January 2025 [2][39] Film IP: Potential of "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms" - The animated film "The Stars of the Three Kingdoms," set to release in 2025, is expected to enhance profit elasticity for the company, with a projected box office of 1.744 billion yuan, similar to "Chang'an 30,000 Li" [2][42] - The company has invested 40 million yuan in the film, anticipating a profit of 4 million yuan based on a 40% revenue share from a 500 million yuan box office [2][42] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 574 million yuan in 2024 to 801 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 39.6% [8][50] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 138 million yuan, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22x [6][50] - The target price for the stock is set at 49 yuan per share, based on a target P/E of 35x for 2025 [6][48] Business Structure and Performance - The company emphasizes internet marketing and AI research, with internet sales revenue reaching 116 million yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 40.45% [18] - The company reported a revenue of 393 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 13.48% [19]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" [8] Core Views - Meituan is a leader in local lifestyle services, with stable growth in food delivery, optimized in-store competition, and significant growth in flash purchase services [1] - The report anticipates that advertising revenue will enhance user experience (UE) optimization, driving profitability in the food delivery segment [2][3] - The competition with Douyin in the in-store business is expected to stabilize, with Meituan maintaining a strong user base and merchant resources [5][6] - Flash purchase services are projected to accelerate penetration into lower-tier markets, with significant growth in order volume [7][12] Summary by Sections 1. Delivery Business - Healthy growth in food delivery orders is driven by high penetration and favorable weather conditions, with expectations for advertising revenue to enhance UE [2] - The potential for increased profitability in food delivery lies in improving the advertising monetization rate [3] - There remains room for growth in order volume through repeat purchases and promotional strategies targeting both high and low-tier cities [3][4] 2. In-store Business - The in-store travel and dining segment has ample growth potential, with a competitive landscape that allows for differentiated strategies [5] - Meituan's user mindset and merchant resource base are solid, maintaining a competitive edge against Douyin [6] 3. Flash Purchase Business - The flash purchase segment is expanding rapidly, with a focus on potential categories and deeper market penetration [7][12] - The model of "flash warehouses" is particularly suited for lower-tier markets, enhancing order volume significantly [12] 4. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at CNY 337.01 billion, CNY 390.99 billion, and CNY 449.64 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.78%, 16.02%, and 15.00% [15][20] - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach CNY 431.71 billion, CNY 540.59 billion, and CNY 715.64 billion for the same years, reflecting substantial growth [15][20] 5. Valuation and Target Price - The target market capitalization for Meituan is set at CNY 1,081.2 billion, with an expected upside of approximately 17% based on a 20X NON-IFRS PE valuation for 2025 [16]