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申洲国际:点评报告:24年报利润超预期,产销重回稳健增长趋势-20250326
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-26 02:00
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Insights - The company's 2024 annual profit exceeded expectations, with a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan (up 14.8% year-on-year) and a net profit of 6.24 billion yuan (up 36.9 year-on-year), alongside a proposed dividend of 1.28 HKD per share [1][5] - The growth in revenue is driven by a recovery in customer demand and an increase in market share, leading to improved production efficiency and gross margin recovery [1][3] Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from different product categories in 2024: sportswear 19.80 billion yuan (up 9.8%), leisurewear 7.21 billion yuan (up 27.1%), underwear 1.44 billion yuan (up 34.6%), and other knitted products 0.22 billion yuan (up 10.9%) [2] - Revenue by region in 2024: Mainland China 8.06 billion yuan (up 13.2%), Europe 5.19 billion yuan (up 3.2%), Japan 4.83 billion yuan (up 31.5%), the United States 4.61 billion yuan (up 18.9%), and other regions 5.97 billion yuan (up 13.4%) [2] Profitability and Efficiency - The gross margin for 2024 is 28.1% (up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year), with a net profit margin of 21.8% (up 3.5 percentage points year-on-year) [3] - The company has improved its operational efficiency, leading to a significant recovery in gross margin, although the second half of the year saw a slight decline compared to the first half due to increased hiring and wage adjustments [3] Capacity and Expansion - The company has increased its workforce to 103,000 by the end of 2024, up from 92,000 at the end of 2023, and has acquired a new factory in Vietnam to enhance fabric production capacity [4] - The new garment factory in Cambodia is expected to start hiring in March 2025, further expanding production capabilities [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 32.14 billion yuan, 35.52 billion yuan, and 39.14 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 6.59 billion yuan, 7.39 billion yuan, and 8.22 billion yuan [5][10] - The company is expected to maintain a low price-to-earnings ratio of 12, 10, and 9 times for the years 2025-2027, indicating potential for growth [5][10]
浙商证券浙商早知道-2025-03-26
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 23:45
证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期:2025 年 03 月 26 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 26 日 :王禾 执业证书编号:S1230512110001 :021-80105901 :wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要点评 【浙商房地产 杨凡/吴贵伦】房地产 行业深度:楼市修复领跑全国,"中国硅谷"崭露峥嵘——20250324 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/3 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 大势:3 月 25 日上证指数下跌 0%,沪深 300 下跌 0.06%,科创 50 下跌 1.36%,中证 1000 下跌 0.78%,创业板指 下跌 0.33%,恒生指数下跌 2.35%。 行业:3 月 25 日表现最好的行业分别是煤炭(+1.9%)、基础化工(+1.24%)、公用事业(+1.22%)、石油石化(+0.86%)、 农林牧渔(+0.75%),表现最差的行业分别是通信(-2.24%)、计算机(-2.15%)、电子(-1.82%)、传媒(-1.58%)、 汽车(-1.52%)。 资金:3 月 25 日全 A 总成交额为 12875 亿元,南下 ...
宏观专题研究:MLF退出后央行如何定利率?
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 14:32
宏观专题研究 MLF 退出后央行如何定利率? 核心观点 2025年3月24日央行官网发布公告,宣布将开展 4500亿元 MLF操作,并从本月起 将 MLF 操作由单一价位中标调整为多重价位中标,标志着 MLF 利率政策属性完全 退出,央行主要政策利率为公开市场 7天期逆回购操作利率。 当前我国央行采取的隔夜利率走廊上、下限是从推动货币政策从数量型向价格型转变 的尝试,与 7天 OMO 利率组合方式与欧央行利率走廊的机制有相似之处。MLF 利 率政策属性退出后,预计央行通过"7天 OMO 利率+央行引导→DR007/LPR→短端 利率→长端利率"的链条实现利率传导。展望后续货币政策,全年看预计 2025年货 币政策维持宽松基调,与财政政策、产业政策形成政策合力,预计全年降准幅度约 100BP,降息约 30BP。 MLF 利率政策属性退出历史舞台,回归1年期流动性投放工具定位 证券研究报告| 宏观专题研究|中国宏观 报告日期:2025年03月25日 分析师:李超 执业证书号:S1230520030002 lichao1@stocke.com.cn 分析师:费瑾 执业证书号:S1230524070007 feiji ...
新宙邦(300037):2024年报点评报告:有机氟如期增长,25年放量有望加速
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 14:25
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.847 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.85%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 942 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.83% [1] - The organic fluorine segment is expected to grow as 3M exits the market in 2025, providing new opportunities for the company's fluorinated products [3] - The electrolyte segment faced pressure due to increased competition and a significant drop in product prices, with the average price per ton decreasing by 41.3% year-on-year [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenues of 51.2 million yuan from electrolytes, 15.3 million yuan from organic fluorine, 7.7 million yuan from capacitors, and 3.7 million yuan from semiconductors, with year-on-year changes of +1.24%, +7.25%, +21.91%, and +18.35% respectively [2] - The gross margin for the company decreased to 26.49%, down 2.45 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the impact of the electrolyte segment [2] - The company’s net profit margin was 12.13%, a decrease of 1.37 percentage points year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge by investing in key raw materials and expanding its production capabilities, including a new base in Poland to meet international demand [3] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company is adjusted to 1.198 billion yuan for 2025 and 1.541 billion yuan for 2026, with a projected increase to 1.949 billion yuan by 2027 [4] - The report indicates that the company’s earnings could see significant growth in Q1 2025 as the fluorinated products ramp up production [3] Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 21.7 for 2025, 16.9 for 2026, and 13.4 for 2027 [4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise from 1.25 yuan in 2024 to 2.58 yuan by 2027 [4]
九兴控股(01836):深度报告:高端鞋履制造商龙头,开发设计能力领先
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 11:04
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [7]. Core Insights - The company is a leading high-end footwear manufacturer with strong design and development capabilities, focusing on high-value-added sports, luxury, and fashion brand clients. Following a successful management transition in 2019, the company has accelerated its expansion into luxury fashion clients and increased its market share in sports categories. The company has initiated its first three-year plan for 2023-2025, targeting a low double-digit profit CAGR [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company specializes in high-end footwear manufacturing, with a global production footprint in China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and the Philippines. It serves notable clients such as Nike, Deckers, Balenciaga, and Cole Haan across various categories including sports, luxury, and fashion. The management transition in 2019 has revitalized the company, leading to accelerated growth in luxury fashion client acquisition and sports category share [2][16][18]. Competitive Advantages - The company boasts leading design and development capabilities, with an average selling price (ASP) of $28.4 in 2024, significantly ahead of the industry. Its R&D expense ratio stands at 3.1%, placing it in the top tier of the industry. The company has established deep ties with high-end brands like Nike and Balenciaga, effectively diversifying its client base and mitigating trend cycle risks. The revenue distribution for 2024 is projected at 45% from sports, 8% from luxury, 27% from fashion, and 20% from leisure [3][4][18]. Financial Performance and Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of $1.62 billion in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5%. The projected net profit for 2025 is $185.3 million, reflecting an 8.34% increase. The company maintains a commitment to a 70% dividend payout ratio and plans to repurchase $60 million worth of shares annually from 2024 to 2026, resulting in a projected dividend yield of 10% in 2025 [5][6][21]. Production Capacity and Efficiency - The company has diversified its production capacity, with 51% of its output expected from Vietnam and 27% from China in 2024. The average output per employee is projected to reach 1,244 pairs per year, with revenue per employee at $36,000, indicating a continuous improvement in production efficiency [4][21][22].
招聘行业2025年2月专题报告:2月农历春节季节性影响,招聘行业持续筑底观点不变-2025-03-25
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 10:56
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [7] Core Viewpoints - The recruitment industry is experiencing a seasonal impact due to the Lunar New Year, with job postings showing a decline in growth rates during January and February. However, a recovery is anticipated as the market enters the peak recruitment season in March and April [1][3] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate increased slightly to 5.4% in February, with youth unemployment rates for ages 16-24, 25-29, and 30-59 at 16.9%, 7.3%, and 4.3% respectively, indicating a need for ongoing observation of the employment market [2] - The number of new job postings on Datayes has shown a year-on-year increase of 18% as of March 16, 2025, reflecting a recovery in employer confidence. The number of new recruitment companies and job postings in February increased by 38% and 45% year-on-year, respectively [3][24] - In February, 44 out of 81 sub-industries reported year-on-year growth in job postings, while 37 industries saw a decline. Notable growth was observed in sectors such as domestic services, group buying/takeout, and logistics [4][13] - The monthly active users (MAU) of BOSS Zhipin reached approximately 52.7 million in Q4 2024, with strong year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 25%, 30%, and 28% across the quarters [5][29] Summary by Sections Macro Level - The urban surveyed unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 5.4% in February, with youth unemployment rates showing slight increases across different age groups [2][15] Micro Level - As of March 16, 2025, Datayes reported a year-on-year increase of 18% in new job postings, with February seeing a 38% increase in new recruitment companies and a 45% increase in new job postings [3][24] Industry Analysis - In February, 44 industries experienced year-on-year growth in job postings, while 37 industries saw declines. Key growth sectors included domestic services and logistics, while industries like wedding photography and biopharmaceuticals faced declines [4][13] User Engagement - BOSS Zhipin's MAU reached approximately 52.7 million in Q4 2024, with consistent growth rates across the quarters, indicating strong user engagement [5][29] Recruitment Trends - The recruitment market is expected to recover as it enters the peak season in March and April, following the seasonal impact of the Lunar New Year [1][3]
舍得酒业(600702):24年报点评报告:短期业绩承压,关注景气拐点
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 07:27
短期业绩承压,关注景气拐点 ——舍得酒业 24 年报点评报告 投资要点 财务摘要 ❑ 产品结构承压,关注政商务消费需求恢复 24 年公司中高档/普通酒类收入分别为 40.96/6.93 亿元,同比-28%/-23% ,占比 为 86%/14%。我们认为或因品味、智慧舍得及舍之道销售承压。24 年公司实施 "控量挺价"策略,积极协助经销商全力提升动销,为消化渠道库存及后续销售提 供强力支撑。2025 年,公司将继续坚持品牌向上、渠道向下、全面向 C 的策 略,聚焦重点市 场、重点客户、重点渠道,加大消费者培育力度,持续通过精 益创新挖掘潜力,坚定不移打造大单品的同时,重视各价位段产品的均衡布局。 ❑ 省内外市场均承压,聚焦传统优势市场 1)分市场看:24 年公司省内/省外营收分别为 15.11/32.77 亿元,同比-20%/ -30%。2)分渠道看:公司电商销售表现亮眼,24 年营收 4.5 亿元,同比+3%。 公司聚焦川冀鲁豫及东北等传统优势市场,逐步推进品牌的全国化布局,全面推 动"品牌 IP 化、终端场景化/消费者社群化/行动数字化"的营销模式升级创新。 ❑ 盈利能力下行,费用投放力度较大 1) 24 ...
佛燃能源(002911):点评报告:城燃主业保持稳健,供应链业务成长性凸显
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 07:26
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 31.589 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.70%. The operating profit was 1.229 billion yuan, down 9.38% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.853 billion yuan, up 1.03% year-on-year. The net profit after deducting non-recurring items was 0.808 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.81% [1][5] Summary by Sections City Gas Business - The city gas business is expected to grow steadily, with a domestic natural gas supply of 4.907 billion cubic meters in 2024. The sales volume for city gas is projected to be 4.499 billion cubic meters, a slight decrease of 1.52% year-on-year, with a unit price of approximately 3.26 yuan per cubic meter, down 5.19% year-on-year. The revenue from city gas is expected to decline by 6.63% [2] R&D and Equipment Business - The R&D and equipment manufacturing segment achieved significant breakthroughs, including the construction of a 300kW SOFC system and the addition of 10 energy-saving transformation projects for kiln production lines. This segment's revenue reached 0.069 billion yuan, marking a substantial year-on-year increase of 80.83% [3] Supply Chain Business - The supply chain business, which includes natural gas and refined oil products, saw a revenue increase of 83.21% year-on-year, reaching 15.847 billion yuan. This growth is attributed to the establishment of a supply chain network centered around Nansha storage and the participation in international LNG trade [4] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 39.270 billion yuan, 49.226 billion yuan, and 60.453 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.31%, 25.35%, and 22.81%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 0.979 billion yuan, 1.162 billion yuan, and 1.400 billion yuan for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 14.76%, 18.71%, and 20.48% [5][9]
健盛集团(603558):点评报告:24年如期稳健增长,静待越南无缝提质增效
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 04:59
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 纺织制造 健盛集团(603558) 报告日期:2025 年 03 月 25 日 24 年如期稳健增长,静待越南无缝提质增效 ——健盛集团点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 24 年报符合预期,年末计提压力落地 2024 年公司实现收入 25.74 亿元(同比+12.8%),归母净利润 3.25 亿元(同比 +20.2%),扣非后归母净利润 3.21 亿元(同比+22.5%),兑现高质量稳健增长。 单 Q4 实现收入 6.50 亿元(同比+4.4%),归母净利润 0.62 亿元(同比-11.6%), 扣非后归母净利润 0.64 亿元(同比+4.0%),单季度收入降速与出货节奏有关, 而利润波动则受到年末计提奖励基金影响(提取金额为 1635 万元)。 24 年公司整体毛利率 28.8%(同比+2.8pp),Q4 毛利率 28.9%(同比+3.1pp),提 升来自工厂精细化管理及无缝提质增效。 24 年净利率 12.6%(同比+0.8pp),Q4 净利率 9.5%(同比-1.7pp),主要受奖励 基金计提影响(Q4 销售/管理费用率分别同比+1.2pp/2.1pp)。 ❑ 全年现金分红 55% ...
卫星化学(002648):2024年报点评:轻烃龙头2024业绩亮眼,α-烯烃综合项目助力迈向新高度
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-03-25 04:37
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 45.648 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 10.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.072 billion yuan, up 26.77% year-on-year [6][8] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw a significant performance boost, with revenue reaching 13.373 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.69%, and a net profit of 2.379 billion yuan, up 75.09% year-on-year [6][8] - The company is advancing its α-olefin high-end new materials project, which is expected to support long-term growth [6][7] - The company is increasing its R&D investment, which reached 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, focusing on key strategic materials and new materials [6][7] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, establishing partnerships with over 160 countries and regions [7] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit margin of 23.57%, an increase of 3.73 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.28%, up 1.75 percentage points year-on-year [6][8] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 7.495 billion, 10.102 billion, and 12.592 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.22, 3.00, and 3.74 yuan [8][9] - The company is projected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with revenue expected to grow by 22.39% in 2025 and 24.79% in 2026 [9]