Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [5][11]. Core Views - The report highlights that SMIC is a key player in the rise of "Chinese chips" amid escalating US-China tech tensions, with stricter scrutiny on semiconductor supply chains starting in 2025 [1][2]. - The semiconductor demand is expected to grow moderately, with advanced processes helping the company navigate through market cycles [2]. - SMIC is making significant capital expenditures to strengthen its position, with plans to double its production capacity over the next few years [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - SMIC is the largest foundry in mainland China and the third largest globally, providing a range of technology nodes from 0.35μm to 14nm FinFET [1]. - The company is strategically positioned in the semiconductor industry, especially as the US imposes tighter restrictions on technology access [1]. Financial Performance - In 2024, SMIC's total revenue is projected to reach $8.03 billion, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2][7]. - The company aims to maintain a capital expenditure of approximately $7.5 billion in 2025, with significant investments in expanding its production capacity [3]. Capacity Expansion - SMIC is currently constructing four 12-inch wafer fabs with a combined capacity planning of 340,000 wafers per month, which is nearly double its 2023 capacity [3]. - The company has been increasing its investments in key equipment to support advanced process expansion, particularly in its Shanghai facility [3]. Market Trends - The report notes a recovery in consumer electronics driven by AI innovations, with increased demand for products in the home appliance and 3C sectors expected in 2025 [2]. - The trend of "local for local" sourcing is anticipated to benefit SMIC as overseas sanctions continue [2]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections show a growth trajectory with expected revenues of $9.79 billion in 2025 and $11.74 billion in 2026 [7][8]. - The report anticipates a recovery in net profit margins, with a projected net profit of $791.46 million in 2025, up from $492.74 million in 2024 [8][10].

非银金融 投资评级 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 今年拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比去年增加 3000 亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000亿元,支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4万亿元、比 上年增加 5000 亿元。今年特别国债和地方专项债合计达 6.2 万亿元，明显高于去年合 计值的 4.9 万亿元。考虑到去年 11 月 8 月财政部提出的"6+4+2"化债方案发力，预计 化债压力大为减轻的地方政府将在"轻装上阵"的利好下增加有效财政支出强度，今年 广义财政口径下的支出效率也将提升,财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。 货币政策方面,政府工作报告提出的"实施适度宽松的货币政策"、"社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"等关键表述与去年底的中央 经济工作会议基本一致。 本次政府工作报告提出的实施"适度宽松"的货币政策,是对去年中央经济工作会 议对货币政策最新定调的再次明确。去年年末以来,市场对货币政策转向宽松反应明显, 十年期国债收益率自去年 11 月底的 2.02%一路震荡下行至当前的 1.71%。在市场提前 计价央行货币政策更加宽松的同时,自 ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|宏观研究|宏观点评 今年拟发行超长期特别国债 1.3 万亿元、比去年增加 3000 亿元。拟发行特别国债 5000亿元,支持国有大型商业银行补充资本。拟安排地方政府专项债券 4.4万亿元、比 上年增加 5000 亿元。今年特别国债和地方专项债合计达 6.2 万亿元,明显高于去年合 计值的 4.9 万亿元。考虑到去年 11 月 8 月财政部提出的"6+4+2"化债方案发力，预计 化债压力大为减轻的地方政府将在"轻装上阵"的利好下增加有效财政支出强度，今年 广义财政口径下的支出效率也将提升，财政政策对内需的支撑值得期待。 货币政策方面,政府工作报告提出的"实施适度宽松的货币政策"、"社会融资规模、 货币供应量增长同经济增长、价格总水平预期目标相匹配"等关键表述与去年底的中央 经济工作会议基本一致。 本次政府工作报告提出的实施"适度宽松"的货币政策,是对去年中央经济工作会 议对货币政策最新定调的再次明确。去年年末以来,市场对货币政策转向宽松反应明显, 十年期国债收益率自去年 11 月底的 2.02%一路震荡下行至当前的 1.71%。在市场提前 计价央行货币政策更加宽松的同时,自 ...

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 投资评级 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31, 券商Ⅱ指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）; 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 增持 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期） : 中长期资金入市空间逐步打开,建议关注券商投资 机会 市场表现: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300 指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is set to "Increase" for companies expected to outperform the market by more than 10% over the next six months, "Hold" for those expected to perform within 5%-10% of the market, and "Reduce" for those expected to underperform by more than 10% [94]. Core Insights - The pet economy is identified as a high-quality sector aligned with social development and consumption trends, with domestic pet food companies expanding capacity and enhancing branding, leading to anticipated rapid growth in performance. Key companies to watch include Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. [88]. - The livestock cycle is expected to face pressure on prices due to high output in 2025, leading to a gradual capacity reduction cycle. This presents opportunities in the equity sector, particularly for large-scale breeding groups like Mu Yuan Co. and Wen's Co. [89]. - The seed industry is undergoing revitalization, with the commercialization of biological breeding expected to accelerate, creating opportunities for expansion and restructuring within the industry. Companies like Long Ping High-Tech and Da Bei Nong are highlighted as key players [91]. - The overseas market for feed is growing rapidly, particularly in Southeast Asia, where domestic leading feed groups possess management and technical advantages, indicating potential for new growth. Haid Group is noted as a significant player [91]. - Recent macro policies focus on debt reduction and stimulating consumption, which are expected to benefit sectors with strong agricultural and consumer attributes, such as Da Yu Water and Xi Wang Food [91]. Summary by Sections Pet Food Industry - The domestic pet food sector is experiencing significant growth due to increased production capacity and brand development, with companies like Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Ti Co. positioned for strong performance [88]. Livestock Sector - The livestock industry is facing price pressures due to high output levels, creating opportunities for investment in large-scale breeding companies such as Mu Yuan Co. and Wen's Co. [89]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is set for expansion and restructuring driven by the commercialization of biological breeding, with key companies like Long Ping High-Tech and Da Bei Nong leading the way [91]. Feed Industry - The feed industry is expanding into overseas markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, where companies like Haid Group are well-positioned to capitalize on growth opportunities [91]. Policy Impact - Recent policies aimed at debt reduction and consumption stimulation are expected to positively impact agricultural sectors, particularly those with strong consumer ties, such as Da Yu Water and Xi Wang Food [91].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy," indicating an expected return of over 10% relative to the CSI 300 index in the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company has recently achieved authoritative certification for its self-developed Tianwen Intelligent Computing Cloud Platform, which is expected to drive growth in its cloud computing business [2][3]. - The launch of the DeepSeek Security Intelligent Computing Integrated Machine, which integrates various capabilities, positions the company to meet the growing demand for AI private deployment in the domestic market [4][10]. - Revenue forecasts for the company are projected to be 2.805 billion yuan in 2024, 3.091 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.417 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 69 million yuan, 179 million yuan, and 242 million yuan respectively [10][12]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianrongxin has been actively developing its cloud computing products since 2019, with steady growth in related business [3]. - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately 10.792 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 10.682 billion yuan [4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 3.124 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected decline of 11.81% for 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10.21% and 10.54% in 2025 and 2026 respectively [12][14]. - The net profit for 2023 was -371.4 million yuan, with expectations of turning profitable in 2024 with a net profit of 68.57 million yuan [12][14]. Market Position - The company’s DeepSeek series has been adopted by over 60 enterprises, including major players like Huawei and Lenovo, indicating a strong market presence [4][9]. - The overall scale of the intelligent computing service market in China is expected to reach 5 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 57.3% from 2023 to 2028 [9].

2025年03月09日 证券研究报告|行业研究|行业点评 非银金融 非银行业周报（2025 年第八期）： 本期（2025.3.3-2025.3.7）非银（申万）指数+1.24%，行业排 17/31，券商 II指 数+0.73%,保险II指数+1.72%; 上证综指+1.56%，深证成指+2.19%，创业板指+1.61%。 个股涨跌幅排名前五位：海南华铁（+28.43%）、新力金融（+10.38%）、中航 产融（+8.80%）、国泰君安（+5.89%）、九坤投资（+5.88%）； 个股涨跌幅排名后五位：国盛金控（-5.14%）、海德股份（-3.12%）、建元信托 (-2.93%）、浙江东方（-2.34%）、中国银河（-2.22%）。 (注：去除 ST 及退市股票) 核心观点: 证券: 市场层面,本周,证券板块上涨 0.73%,跑输沪深 300指数 0.66pct,跑输上证综 指数 0.83pct。当前券商板块 PB 估值为 1.51 倍，位于 2020 年 50 分位点附近。 本周,3月6日,证监会主席吴清在十四届全国人大三次会议经济主题记者会上表 示,逐项打通社保、保险、理财等中长期资金入市卡点堵点,不断引入 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with an expected return exceeding 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company has successfully developed the Tianjian Intelligent Computing Cloud Platform, which has passed authoritative certification, indicating strong market potential for its cloud computing business [1][2]. - The DeepSeek security intelligent computing integrated machine integrates various capabilities and is designed to meet the growing demand for AI privatization deployment in the domestic market [3][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in cybersecurity demand and the rapid growth of the AI privatization deployment market, with projected revenues of 2.805 billion, 3.091 billion, and 3.417 billion yuan for 2024 to 2026 respectively [8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Tianrongxin's DeepSeek security intelligent computing integrated machine combines computing hardware and intelligent computing platforms, providing a high-performance, secure, and reliable solution for clients [2]. - The company has seen steady growth in its cloud computing business since launching its products in 2019, with revenue growth rates of +12.17% for 2023 and +9.98% for the first three quarters of 2024 [2]. Market Potential - The overall scale of China's intelligent computing service market is projected to reach 5 billion USD in 2024 and 7.95 billion USD in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 57.3% from 2023 to 2028 [7]. - The demand for integrated machines has surged as enterprises shift towards private deployment of AI, ensuring data security and privacy [3][7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 2.804 billion yuan in 2024, 3.091 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.417 billion yuan in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 0.685 billion, 1.794 billion, and 2.419 billion yuan [10][8]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 157X, 60X, and 45X respectively [8].

Core Insights - The report highlights a new round of "East Rising, West Falling" trading narrative, driven by the expectation of a U.S. recession and China's leading position in the AI revolution [3][10][13] - The government work report for 2025 indicates a proactive macroeconomic policy, with a target deficit rate set at a historical high of around 4%, which is expected to boost market sentiment and investment structure [8][9][10] - The report anticipates that the valuation of Chinese technology stocks will undergo a significant reshaping, with domestic consumption and AI autonomy becoming the mid-term market focus [10][13] Market Overview - As of March 5, 2025, the overall market showed positive performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.56% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.61% [7] - The report notes a decline in market activity, with the average daily trading volume dropping to 17,009.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 2,906.41 billion yuan from the previous week [7] - The overall A-share market's price-to-earnings ratio stands at 19.06, reflecting a 1.63% increase from the previous week [7] Economic Projections - The government aims for a GDP growth of around 5% and a CPI increase of about 2% for 2025, indicating a commitment to economic stability and growth [8][10] - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and developing new productive forces, aligning with the central economic work conference's objectives [10] Investment Trends - The report indicates a divergence in domestic capital flows, with financing and ETF funds showing opposite trends since the beginning of the year, suggesting a cautious approach among investors [14][15] - Historical data suggests a strong correlation between the annual broad deficit rate and the government's initial deficit target, indicating that fiscal expansion could positively impact economic growth and the stock market [9][10] Sector Focus - The report identifies sectors such as consumer goods, technology, and defense as potential areas for investment, particularly in light of the government's focus on consumption and technological self-reliance [10][13] - The report also notes that the Hang Seng Technology Index remains a point of interest for investors, reflecting ongoing trends in the technology sector [10]