Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook on consumer opportunities, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption trends, supported by various government policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes that the May Day holiday data shows significant growth in both the number of travelers and total spending, suggesting a strong recovery in the consumer sector [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - Closing index level is 7997.15, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 5985.5 [1] Recent Research Insights - The report notes a 6.4% year-on-year increase in domestic travel during the May Day holiday, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, a growth of 8.0% [4][5] - Retail and catering sectors showed a 6.3% increase in sales, with specific categories like home appliances and automobiles seeing growth rates of 15.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][6] Investment Recommendations and Focused Targets - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as liquor and catering, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [9] - Recommended stocks include Yum China, Haidilao, and various tourism and hotel companies [9]

证券研究报告：农林牧渔 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-05-07 股票投资评级 增持|维持 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 9.59 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）45.26 / 45.00 | | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）434 / 432 | | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 11.04 / 8.24 | | 资产负债率(%) | 69.0% | | 市盈率 | 106.56 | | 第一大股东 | 南方希望实业有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:王琦 SAC 登记编号:S1340522100001 Email:wangqi2022@cnpsec.com 新希望(000876) 降本增效成果显著，破除困局 ⚫ 事件： 公司发布 2024 年年报及 2025 年一季报，其中 24 年全年实现营 业收入 1030.63 亿元，同比下降 27.27%，归母净利 4.74 亿元，同比 增长 90.05%。2025 年一季度，公司实现营业总收入 244.17 亿元，同 比增长 2.13%，归母净利润 4.45 亿，同比扭亏为盈。 ⚫ 点评：降本增效成果显著，饲料及生猪业 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Views - The traditional cable business is expected to see marginal improvement, while the battery business is anticipated to recover from losses. The company is actively expanding its AI business [3]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but a net loss of 320 million yuan, a significant decline of 199.5% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 showed revenue of 7.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3][4]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing demand for reliable power systems, particularly in the nuclear power sector, as confirmed by the approval of five nuclear power projects in April 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 4.55 yuan - Total market capitalization: 10.1 billion yuan - Total shares outstanding: 2.219 billion shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 78.6% [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 84.6% [3]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 10.7% and 0.9%, respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous year [4]. Business Segments - The smart cable network business generated revenue of 22.703 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, but the net profit decreased by 70.1% due to rising copper prices and intense competition [5]. - The smart battery segment saw revenue of 1.65 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%, but incurred a net loss of 690 million yuan [6]. - The smart airport business achieved revenue of 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan [8]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 29.74 billion yuan, 33.90 billion yuan, and 38.36 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 590 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [9][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [9][15]. Core Views - The traditional cable business is expected to see marginal improvement, while the battery business is anticipated to recover from losses. The company is actively expanding its AI business [3]. - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, but a net loss of 320 million yuan, a significant decline of 199.5% year-on-year. The fourth quarter of 2024 showed revenue of 7.87 billion yuan, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.3% and a year-on-year increase of 14.5% [3][4]. - The company is benefiting from the increasing demand for reliable power systems, particularly in the nuclear power sector, as confirmed by the approval of five nuclear power projects in April 2025 [5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Latest closing price: 4.55 yuan - Total market capitalization: 10.1 billion yuan - Total shares outstanding: 2.219 billion shares - Debt-to-asset ratio: 78.6% [2]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 4.87 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, and a net profit of 50 million yuan, up 84.6% year-on-year [3]. - The gross margin and net margin for Q1 2025 were 10.7% and 0.9%, respectively, with slight changes compared to the previous year [4]. - The smart cable network business generated revenue of 22.703 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, but the net profit decreased by 70.1% [5]. Business Segments - The smart battery segment saw revenue of 1.65 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 180.5%, but incurred a net loss of 690 million yuan [6]. - The smart airport business achieved revenue of 1.66 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 35.7%, with a net profit of 120 million yuan [8]. Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 29.74 billion yuan, 33.90 billion yuan, and 38.36 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 590 million yuan, 820 million yuan, and 1.17 billion yuan [9][11]. - The expected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17, 12, and 9 times, respectively [9].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the acceleration of data value transformation, with high-quality datasets empowering AI development. The Digital China Summit emphasized the importance of high-quality datasets in driving AI advancements [4][5] - The establishment of various high-quality data collection projects across multiple cities indicates a growing focus on data-driven applications in sectors such as healthcare, transportation, education, and finance [5][6] - The report notes the launch of the first data asset securitization project in China, which marks a significant step in the marketization of data elements and provides a new financing channel for the digital economy [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Situation - The closing index is at 4675.66, with a 52-week high of 5440.49 and a low of 2805.53 [1] Relative Index Performance - The report provides a forecast of relative performance for the computer industry against the CSI 300 index, showing a potential increase of 24% to 46% from May 2024 to December 2025 [3] Key Companies and Investment Ratings - Notable companies in the industry include: - Sanwei Tiandi (Buy) with a closing price of 28.88 and a market cap of 2.23 billion - Shanghai Steel Union (Buy) with a closing price of 20.76 and a market cap of 6.62 billion - YunSai ZhiLian (Buy) with a closing price of 23.48 and a market cap of 32.11 billion - Shanda Diwei (Buy) with a closing price of 9.55 and a market cap of 3.82 billion - New Point Software (Buy) with a closing price of 33.00 and a market cap of 10.89 billion [10][12]

分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《中共中央政治局会议精神学习》 - 2025.04.28 宏观研究 证券研究报告：宏观报告 研究所 | | | 投资要点 （1）五一假期居民出行需求旺盛，消费亮点纷呈 第一，居民出行需求延续高热度，自驾游仍是主要出行方式。交 通运输部消息，今年五一假期前四天（5 月 1 日至 4 日），预计全社会 跨区域人员流动量 11.85 亿人次，日均 2.96 亿人次，较 2024 年同期 增长 6.24%，较 2019 年同期增长 34.92%。第二，旅游保持高热度， 跨境游和票根经济成为消费新增长点。从省域来看，四川、山东、浙 江、上海、重庆等省市旅游保持高热度，旅游数据再创新高；在入境 政策持续优化、度假旅游需求旺盛、国际航班运力增加等多重利好因 素叠加下，跨境游成为新的增长点；票根经济已成为"五一"假期新 的消费亮点。第三，假期消费持续升温。"五一"假期全国重点零售和 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Timing Model (First Threshold Method) - **Model Construction Idea**: The diffusion index measures the proportion of constituent stocks in the Wind Micro-Cap Index that have been in an upward trend over the past 20 trading days. This model uses a left-side trading strategy based on threshold values to determine market timing[64][65] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the diffusion index as the proportion of stocks in the index that have risen in the past 20 trading days 2. Set thresholds: when the diffusion index is above 0.9, the portfolio is fully in cash; when it is below 0.1, the portfolio is fully invested 3. Fill in signals for other periods based on the previous period's signal 4. Ensure that a full investment must precede a full cash position, and vice versa - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model failed to outperform the Micro-Cap Index in-sample but demonstrated controlled drawdowns. However, it struggled to identify major bear markets in 2024 and exited too early during the bull market in September 2024, missing significant gains. It performed better in 2025 by capturing the bottom and subsequent upward trends[65][66] - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Timing Model (Delayed Threshold Method) - **Model Construction Idea**: This right-side trading strategy modifies the first threshold method by using momentum instead of reversal logic. It aims to address the shortcomings of the left-side approach by focusing on momentum[67] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the diffusion index as the proportion of stocks in the index that have risen in the past 20 trading days 2. Set thresholds: when the diffusion index drops below 0.9 after being above it the previous day, the portfolio moves to cash; when it rises above 0.1 after being below it the previous day, the portfolio becomes fully invested 3. Fill in signals for other periods based on the previous period's signal - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model failed to outperform the Micro-Cap Index in-sample but demonstrated controlled drawdowns. It avoided early exits during the September 2024 bull market, preserving gains and achieving a new high in strategy net value. Its performance in 2025 was mediocre, capturing some upward trends but overall underwhelming[67][69] - **Model Name**: Diffusion Index Timing Model (Dual Moving Average Method) - **Model Construction Idea**: This adaptive trading strategy uses short-term and long-term moving averages of the diffusion index to determine market timing. It aims to reduce reliance on fixed thresholds and adapt to market trends[68][70] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Define the short-term moving average as the 10-day moving average (MA) of the diffusion index 2. Define the long-term moving average as the 20-day moving average of the short-term MA 3. When the short-term MA crosses above the long-term MA, the portfolio becomes fully invested; when it crosses below, the portfolio moves to cash - **Formula**: Not explicitly provided in the report - **Model Evaluation**: The model failed to outperform the Micro-Cap Index in-sample but demonstrated excellent drawdown control. It avoided significant losses during the 2024 bear market and preserved gains during the September 2024 bull market. However, it showed limitations in trend recognition due to insufficient parameter smoothing, leading to suboptimal performance in 2025[70][71] Model Backtesting Results - **First Threshold Method**: - Triggered a full investment signal on April 7, 2025, at a diffusion index value of 0.0225[65][66] - **Delayed Threshold Method**: - Triggered an opening signal on April 22, 2025[67][69] - **Dual Moving Average Method**: - Triggered an opening signal on April 30, 2025[70][71]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [2][9] Core Insights - The company demonstrated strong performance in 2024, with revenue reaching 1.182 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.37%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 157 million yuan, up 35.44% [5][8] - The growth was driven by significant increases in membership store channels and online e-commerce, with online revenue growing by 204.33% year-on-year [6] - The company is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with projected revenues of 1.501 billion yuan in 2025, representing a 26.97% increase [8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 296 million yuan, a 42.92% increase year-on-year, and net profit of 36 million yuan, up 257.97% [5] - For Q1 2025, revenue was 383 million yuan, a 39.23% increase year-on-year, with net profit of 50 million yuan, up 16.25% [5] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 28.97%, with a net profit margin of 13.31% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from various product categories included 785 million yuan from chicken feet, 93 million yuan from skin products, and 48 million yuan from chicken wings, with notable growth in chicken wings at 23.76% [6] - Online and offline channels generated revenues of 680 million yuan and 1.104 billion yuan respectively, with online sales growing significantly [6] Profitability Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 197 million yuan in 2025, 231 million yuan in 2026, and 261 million yuan in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 25.49%, 17.16%, and 13.01% [8][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase in stock price of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within the next six months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company achieved Q1 2025 revenue of 5.95 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 10.27%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 8.21% to 0.68 billion yuan [4][5]. - The company focuses on its leading fish products and stable growth in snack channels, with significant investments in brand development, R&D, and channel expansion [5]. - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 29.91%, with a net profit margin of 11.34%, reflecting a slight decrease compared to the previous year [5]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 28.30 billion, 33.56 billion, and 38.77 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 17.33%, 18.59%, and 15.52% respectively [6][9]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to reach 3.25 billion, 3.99 billion, and 4.81 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 11.45%, 23.0%, and 20.51% respectively [6][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.72, 0.89, and 1.07 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, corresponding to price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18, 15, and 12 times [6][9].

证券研究报告：公用事业 | 公司点评报告 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 l 盈利预测与投资评级: | 最新收盘价（元） | 5.87 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）22.63 | / 22.63 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）133 | / 133 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 6.47 / 5.03 | | 资产负债率(%) | 32.5% | | 市盈率 | 20.00 | | 第一大股东 | 联众新能源有限公司 | 研究所 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:侯若雪 SAC 登记编号:S1340524100002 Email:houruoxue@cnpsec.com 联美控股(600167) 2024 年业绩受减值影响，分红稳健 l 投资要点 事件：2025 年 4 月 29 日，公司发布 2024 年年报和 2025 年一季 报。 2024 年公司营收 35.1 亿元，同比+2.9%；归母净利润 6.6 亿元， 同比-23.3%；其中 202 ...