1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report is bearish as the significant increase in production led to higher - than - expected ending stocks [21]. - The USDA May supply - demand report is bullish for soybeans as the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean ending stocks are lower than expected [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight, the closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 07 (BMD) was 3846.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.61% and an overnight decline of 0.41% [1]. - The latest prices and price changes of currency indices including the US dollar index, RMB, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are also given. For instance, the US dollar index was 100.79, with a decline of 0.25% [1]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2505 in East China was 8510, with a basis of 460 and no change in basis compared to the previous day [2]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions like the US Gulf, US West, Brazil, and Argentina are listed. For example, the CNF premium in Brazil was 133 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote was 444 dollars per ton [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 20 - 24) for major US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - median precipitation and generally lower temperatures. The weekend in the US Midwest will be dry, and more rainfall may occur next week. Different weather conditions are detailed for the western and eastern regions [3][5]. - Three institutions (AmSpec, ITS, SGS) reported that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month, with growth rates of 14.21%, 6.63%, and 19.22% respectively [6][7]. - RHB analysts believe that Indonesia's recent increase in the export special tax on crude palm oil (CPO) may support global CPO prices and strengthen its biodiesel policy [7]. - As of the week ending May 13, about 17% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 15% the previous week and 9% last year [7]. - As of the week ending May 8, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales met expectations, with specific changes in export sales, shipments, and new sales for different market years [8][9][10]. - The NOPA reported that US soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, and soybean crushing volume was 190.226 million bushels [10]. - The US EPA has submitted a proposed rule to the White House to review the amount of biofuels that refineries must blend into their fuels starting in 2026 [10]. - CONAB predicted that the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production would reach 168.3418 million tons, with an increase of 14% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month [11]. - Anec predicted that from May 11 - 17, Brazilian soybean exports would be 3.9898 million tons, and soybean meal exports would be 627,400 tons [12]. - Ukrainian producers expect soybean prices to rise at the end of May, and they may reduce the sowing area by 12% this year [12]. - The predicted Australian 2025/26 rapeseed production is 6.2 million tons, and future precipitation conditions need to be closely monitored [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose to a more - than - one - week high due to the increase in capesize vessel freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 70% compared to the previous trading day [15]. - On May 15, the trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills decreased, and the overall oil mill operating rate increased by 1.13% [15]. - In April 2025, the national industrial feed production increased by 4.2% month - on - month and 9.0% year - on - year, with changes in different types of feed and raw material usage ratios [15]. - On May 15, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" decreased, and the price of eggs increased by 1.5% [16]. International Macroeconomic Data - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 91.7%, and there are different probabilities for rate cuts in July [17]. - US economic data such as initial jobless claims, industrial output, retail sales, PPI, etc. are presented, with some data meeting expectations and others deviating [17][18]. - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil supply will exceed demand in 2025, and the supply growth forecast is raised [18]. Domestic News - On May 15, the US dollar/yuan exchange rate was raised, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds [20]. 05 Key Information Analysis - The MPOB April palm oil report shows that production, exports, imports, and consumption changed, and the ending stocks increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, higher than expected [21]. - The USDA May soybean report adjusted the 24/25 and 25/26 annual US soybean exports, production, and ending stocks, with the ending stocks lower than expected [22]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 15, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 28.657 billion yuan, including 4.803 billion yuan from commodity futures and 23.853 billion yuan from stock index futures. Different sectors of commodity futures also had varying capital flows [24][25]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

2025/5/16 10:13 【国富期货早间看点】印尼上调⽑棕榈油出⼝专项税⾄10% Anec 5 1427 20250515 【国富期货早间看点】印尼上调毛棕榈油出口专项税至10% Anec上 调巴西大豆5月出口预估至1427万吨 20250515 2025年05月15日 07:38 02 现货行情 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2505 | 华北 | N/A | N/A | N/A | | | 华东 | 8620 | 460 | -20 | | | 华南 | 8680 | 520 | -10 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8160 | 266 | -34 | | | 江苏 | 8280 | 386 | ୧ | | | 广东 | 8250 | 356 | ୧ | | | 天津 | 8260 | 366 | 56 | | DCE豆箱2509 | 山东 | 2960 | 57 | -38 | | | 江苏 | 2990 | 87 | -8 | | | 广东 | 3030 | 127 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint The USDA May report shows that the ending stocks of US soybeans in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons are expected to decline, with the 25/26 ending stocks lower than market expectations, having a bullish impact. However, the supply narrative for US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains to be seen, as there are uncertainties regarding whether the weather in the main producing areas can support a bumper harvest and whether the demand will be stable. The supply outlook may vary depending on factors such as yield, export volume, and tariff policies [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Production End - The USDA May report uses data from the March planting intention survey, expecting the soybean planting area to decrease from 87.1 million acres in the 24/25 season to 83.5 million acres in the 25/26 season due to poor planting profits [4]. - The estimated yield per acre in the 25/26 season is 52.5 bushels, the highest in the same period over the years, in line with the historical estimation trend. The yield will be first revised in the August report [4]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting progress is 48%, higher than the five - year average of 37%, and the germination rate is 17%, higher than the five - year average of 11% [4]. - There is uncertainty about whether the 25/26 yield can maintain 52.5 bushels per acre. The current rainfall in the main producing areas is low, and good weather during the critical growth period is needed [5]. Export End - For the 24/25 season, the USDA May report increased the export forecast by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels. As of May 8, 2025, the cumulative export sales volume was 48 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.68%, higher than the report's forecast. The export demand is expected to be well - supported [11]. - For the 25/26 season, the forecast export volume is 1.815 billion bushels, a decrease of 35 million bushels year - on - year. The pre - sale progress is significantly slow, and the tariff policy remains a key concern for future export demand [12]. Crushing End - As of March 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in US soybean crushing declined. However, the market expects the cumulative year - on - year increase to rebound in April, and the 24/25 crushing is still well - supported [15]. - For the 25/26 season, the monthly report expects the crushing volume to be 2.49 billion bushels, with a year - on - year increase of 2.89%. The crushing growth rate slows down, and the adjustment of US biodiesel policy needs to be watched [16]. Ending Stocks - For the 24/25 season, the ending stocks were reduced by 25 million bushels to 350 million bushels. The possibility of further adjustment by the USDA is low [19]. - For the 25/26 season, under different yield and export scenarios, the supply situation varies. If the export volume is adjusted downward, the supply may turn loose; otherwise, the supply may be tight [19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report has a neutral impact, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes of various commodities are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil, with their closing prices and daily percentage changes [1]. - Currency quotes such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are also provided along with their percentage changes [2]. 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given [3]. - CNF premiums, premium changes, and CNF quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are presented [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (May 17 - 21) for US soybean - producing states shows that precipitation is higher than normal, and temperatures vary [6]. 国际供需 - ITS indicates that Malaysian palm oil exports from May 1 - 10 decreased by 9% compared to the same period last month, while SGS expects a 1.9% increase [10]. - USDA's 2025/2026 US soybean production, ending stocks, and yield forecasts are close to market expectations, and it maintains previous production forecasts for Argentina and Brazil [10]. - As of May 11, 2025, the US soybean planting rate was 48% (higher than expected), and the emergence rate was 17% [13]. - A private exporter reported selling 120,000 tons of soybeans to Mexico [14]. - As of May 8, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 426,077 tons [14]. - As of May 10, the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 98.5% [15]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of May increased by 24% compared to the daily average in May last year [15]. - APK - Inform raised Ukraine's 2025 soybean production and 2025/26 export forecasts [16]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, ending a four - day decline [17]. 国内供需 - On May 10, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 80% compared to the previous trading day [18]. - On May 10, the trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national oil mill operating rate dropped to 54.80% [18]. - As of May 9, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil decreased by 5.28% week - on - week, while that of soybean oil increased by 4.40% [18]. - The agricultural ministry adjusted China's 2024/2025 soybean import volume and estimated 2025/2026 import and consumption volumes [19]. - The average purchase price of pigs and the average ex - factory price of白条肉 decreased slightly from April 28 - May 4 [19]. - As of May 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" decreased, and prices of various agricultural products changed [20]. 04 Macro News 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 88.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts by December have decreased [22]. - The European Central Bank should stop rate cuts, according to an ECB official [22]. - Canada's national economic confidence index as of May 9 was 48.6 [22]. 国内要闻 - On May 10, the US dollar/CNY exchange rate decreased (CNY appreciated) [24]. - On May 10, the Chinese central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [24]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress, with significant tariff reductions [24]. 05 Market Impact Analysis - The MPOB March palm oil supply - demand report shows an increase in ending stocks, and palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a bullish impact on soybeans, with lower - than - expected ending stocks for 25/26 [25]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 12, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 9.886 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.867 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 11.753 billion yuan in stock index futures [28]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.

2025年05月09日 07:30 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3835.00 | 1.99 | 0. 89 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 63. 12 | 3.56 | 1. 02 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 60. 28 | 4.02 | 1.23 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1044. 75 | 0. 53 | 0. 14 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 294. 60 | -0. 17 | -0. 03 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 40 | 2.13 | 0. 48 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 63 | 0. 75 | | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 2073 | 0. 09 | | | 马未林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 2383 | 0. 37 | | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16493 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term palm oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile due to tariff policy changes, a sharp drop in international crude oil prices, and a marginal loosening of supply expectations in the producing areas [22][23]. - Short - term soybean prices in the US are expected to experience more volatile fluctuations. Although the US has postponed the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on some countries, which may boost soybean prices, there are still significant uncertainties in US tariff and biodiesel policies, and the sowing of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is imminent [24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and price changes of various commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, US soybean meal, and US soybean oil are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies also show corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. CNF premiums and quotes for soybean crushing in different regions are also given [2]. 3.3 Weather Forecast - From May 12th to May 16th, the temperature in the main soybean - producing states in the US is expected to be higher, and precipitation will significantly increase. The weather in the US Midwest is generally favorable, with improved planting progress and early growth conditions, but long - term dryness could be a problem [3][5]. 3.4 Production Forecasts - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2024/25 season is 19 million tons, with an upward revision of less than 1% from the previous estimate, supported by a rebound in crop yields. The production in Indonesia for the 2024/25 season is expected to be 48.8 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous estimate. The production in Thailand for the 2024/25 season is expected to remain at 3.59 million tons, also unchanged from the previous estimate [6][8][9]. - Analysts predict that the US soybean production for the 2025/26 season will be 4.338 billion bushels, with an estimated ending inventory of 362 million bushels. The global ending inventory of soybeans for the 2025/26 season is estimated to be 126.02 million tons [9]. - The estimated rapeseed production in Canada for the 2025/26 season is 18.2 million tons, a 2.1% increase from the previous year, despite a decrease in planting area and unfavorable summer weather prospects [12]. 3.5 Export Forecasts - Anec expects Brazil to export 12.6 million tons of soybeans and 1.87 million tons of soybean meal in May. Imea predicts that the soybean exports from Mato Grosso in Brazil for the 2025/26 season will decrease by 4% compared to the previous year [10]. 3.6 Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 7th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,850 tons, a 293% increase from the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal was 378,700 tons, with an increase of 276,600 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of oil mills was 53.68%, a 5.73% increase from the previous day [14]. 3.7 Macro News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 80.2%. The US consumer credit increased in March. FOMC decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged. The EIA strategic petroleum reserve and crude oil inventories in the US changed. The retail sales in the Eurozone in March had specific monthly and annual changes. Brazil's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points [17][18][19]. - **Domestic News**: On May 7th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted downward. The Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. The central bank lowered the re - lending rate and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operation rate. China increased its gold reserves and foreign exchange reserves in April [21]. 3.8 Key Information Analysis - MPOB's March palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory increased by 3.52% to 1.563 million tons. The production, export, import, and consumption all changed compared to the previous month. The report's impact is neutral [22]. - USDA's April supply - demand report made adjustments to the US and Brazilian soybean supply - demand balance sheets. The report's impact is neutral, and US soybean prices may be more volatile in the short term [24]. 3.9 Capital Flows - On May 7th, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 1.425 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 11.301 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net capital inflow of 12.726 billion yuan [27]. 3.10 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

【国富期货早间看点】欧盟24/25年棕榈油累计进口243万吨 巴西 24/25大豆产量料为1.721亿吨 20250507 2025/5/7 09:39 【国富期货早间看点】欧盟24/25 243 24/25 1.721 20250507 2025年05月07日 07:44 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3749.00 | -0.91 | -1. 13 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 62. 04 | 2.97 | -0. 48 | | 美原油06(NYMEX) | 59.00 | 3.09 | -0. 54 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1040. 50 | -0. 53 | -0. 10 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 292. 90 | -0. 91 | -0. 78 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48. 30 | -0.90 | -0. 25 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report comprehensively analyzes the changes in global financial markets, industrial supply - demand, and macroeconomic news during the 2025 May Day holiday, covering commodities, currencies, and key economic indicators in both international and domestic markets. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 May Day Foreign Market Changes - **Commodity Prices**: During the May Day holiday, there were fluctuations in various commodity prices. For example, BMD palm oil fell 2.12%, NYMEX crude oil dropped 4.74%, and COMEX gold rose 1.77%. The dollar index rose 0.34%, the Dow Jones Industrial Index increased 1.71%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 2.95% [2]. - **Currency Exchange Rates**: The Argentine peso against the US dollar had a 2.33% decline, while other major currencies like the Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, and Indonesian rupiah remained stable against the US dollar [2]. 2025 May Day Industrial Supply - Demand - **International Supply - Demand** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's April palm oil production is expected to increase, with different institutions' data showing growth ranging from 14.74% to 24.62%. Export data from different institutions vary, with some showing an increase and others a decrease. Indonesia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in May, and India's palm oil imports in April decreased by 24% [3][4][5]. - **Soybeans**: As of April 29, about 15% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, a 6% reduction from the previous week. As of May 4, the US soybean planting rate was 30%, lower than expected. US soybean export sales increased, and Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production is expected to be 1.684 billion tons [6][7][10]. - **Other Crops**: Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 21.6% in the week ending April 27, and Australia's 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 620,000 tons [13]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand** - **Agricultural Products**: On April 30, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 85% compared to the previous trading day. The opening rate of domestic oil mills decreased by 0.49%, and the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" dropped 0.27 points [15]. 2025 May Day Macroeconomic News - **International News** - **US Economy**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in May is 97.3%. The US Q1 core PCE price index annualized quarterly rate was 3.5%, and the Q1 real GDP annualized quarterly rate was - 0.3%. The April non - farm payrolls were 177,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.2% [16][17]. - **OPEC**: OPEC's April oil production decreased by 200,000 barrels per day to 2.724 million barrels per day. OPEC + plans to increase production in June and possibly again in July [19]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's Q1 GDP annual rate was 1.2%, the April CPI annual rate was 2.2%, and the May Sentix investor confidence index was - 8.1 [19][20]. - **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On April 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.2014, down 15 points. The central bank conducted 530.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 422.8 billion yuan [22]. - **Economic Indicators**: China's April manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous month [22].

Group 1: Report Titles and Dates - "Guofu Soybean Research Weekly Report: Sufficient Expected Arrival of Imported Soybeans, Decline in Soybean Meal Prices", dated May 06, 2025 [1] - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: Expected Improvement in Origin Export Demand, Rebound in Palm Oil Prices", dated April 28, 2025 [93] - "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: Expected Loosening of Origin Supply, Decline in Palm Oil Prices", dated May 06, 2025 [93] Group 2: Report Table of Contents - **Market Review**: Covers soybeans, soybean powder, and soybean oil [4] - **Production Area Weather**: Focuses on US soybean production area weather [4] - **International Supply and Demand**: Includes US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans [4] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: Analyzes soybean oil and soybean meal supply and demand [4] - **Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spreads**: Details basis, monthly spreads, variety spreads, FOB quotes, and CFTC positions [4] Group 3: Price Quotes - In the June quote, the price dropped from 155 to 140, a decrease of 15 [45] - In the July quote, the price dropped from 180 to 160, a decrease of 20 [45] - In the August quote, the price dropped from 210 to 190, a decrease of 20 [45]