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【早间看点】欧盟或允许零关税进口一定额度且符合条件的印棕,加拿大6月菜籽压榨环比升3.0%-20250730
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 05:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities including palm oil, soybean, and related products, along with important fundamental information such as weather in the US, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - economic news, and capital flows in the market [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and daily and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, and US soybean futures are presented. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 10 (BMD) is 4283.00, with a daily increase of 0.35% and an overnight increase of 0.68% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of the US dollar index and multiple currencies against the US dollar are provided, such as the US dollar index at 98.90, up 0.25% [1]. Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are given. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9050, with a basis of 130 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - **Imported Soybean Quotes**: The CNF premiums and CNF quotes of imported soybeans from different regions are shown, like the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans is 266 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 469 dollars per ton [4]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: The future weather outlook of US soybean - producing states from August 3rd to 7th shows that the temperature is close to the average and precipitation is mostly above the median. The Midwest planting belt has rising temperatures and relatively high soil moisture [5][7]. - **International Supply - Demand**: The EU and Indonesia reached an agreement on palm oil trade, with the EU allowing zero - tariff imports of a certain quota of Indonesian palm oil. Indonesia is expected to export over 500 tons of palm oil to India in 2025. Brazil's July soybean and soybean meal export forecasts are lower than the previous week. EU's 2025/26 imports of palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed are all lower than the same period last year. Canada's June rapeseed crushing volume increased by 3.0% month - on - month [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply - Demand**: On July 29th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 152% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills increased significantly, and the operating rate of oil mills rose. The national soybean oil port inventory increased by 2.8 tons compared to the previous week [14]. Macroeconomic News - **International News**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The US consumer confidence index in July is 97.2, higher than the expected value [15]. - **Domestic News**: On July 29th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was reported at 7.1511, up 44 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 4492 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 2344 billion yuan [18]. Capital Flows On July 29th, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 38.56 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net capital outflow of 0.57 billion yuan, including an outflow of 9.38 billion yuan from agricultural product futures and 8.29 billion yuan from chemical futures, while black - series futures had a net capital inflow of 33.2 billion yuan. Index futures had a net capital outflow of 38 billion yuan [21].
国富期货早间看点:SPPOMA马棕7月前25日产量增加5.52%,USDA美豆优良率为70%高于市场预期-20250729
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-29 06:44
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, and details on fund flows. It also provides data on key agricultural products such as palm oil, soybeans, and their related products, along with information on livestock and macro - economic indicators both in the US and globally [1][3][7][16]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various futures including palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, soybeans, and related products are presented. Price changes of major currencies are also provided [1]. - Information on futures - spot price differences (basis) for palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions, as well as CNF quotes for imported soybeans from different countries [1]. 02 Spot Market No specific content provided. 03 Important Fundamental Information - **产区天气 -** - US soybean - producing states are expected to have low temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median from August 2 - 6. The Midwest has good soil moisture with rain this week, and although there is high - temperature stress, the overall situation is favorable for crops [3][5]. - **国际供需 -** - Malaysian palm oil production from July 1 - 25, 2025, increased by 5.52% compared to the same period last month, while exports decreased by 8.53% [7]. - As of July 27, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 70%, higher than expected. The flowering and pod - setting rates are also reported [8]. - Brazilian soybean exports in the first four weeks of July 2025 increased by 12% compared to the daily average of July last year [9]. - Argentina reduced export withholding tax rates for various agricultural products [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index declined on Monday due to falling freight rates of all ship types [10]. - **国内供需 -** - On July 28, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 72% compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume of soybean meal also increased, and the oil - mill operating rate rose [12]. - As of July 25, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils increased slightly, with palm oil inventory rising and soybean oil inventory falling [12]. - As of July 28, 2025, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports increased [13]. - In June 2025, the slaughter volume of large - scale pig - slaughtering enterprises decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. As of July 28, there were price changes in major agricultural products in the wholesale market [14]. 04 Macro News - **International News** - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 62.6% [16]. - The US July Dallas Fed Business Activity Index was 0.9, better than expected [16]. - The US Treasury increased its borrowing forecast for the third quarter by $453 billion [16]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28 [16]. - Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, including tariff and investment details [16]. - The US will not extend the tariff - increase deadline on August 1, but Trump is ready to continue tariff negotiations [16]. - OPEC + is considering another production - increase action and will discuss September's production level on August 3 [17]. - **Domestic News** - On July 28, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted up, and the Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [19]. 05 Fund Flows - On July 28, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 18.351 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 23.813 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net inflow of 5.461 billion yuan in stock - index futures. Details of fund flows for major futures varieties are provided [22][23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No information provided.
棕榈油研究周报:产地供增需减,棕榈油价格震荡下跌-20250728
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 08:32
Report Title - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly: Supply Increase and Demand Decrease in Origin, Palm Oil Prices Oscillate and Decline" [1] Core View - The palm oil market is characterized by an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the origin, leading to an oscillating and declining price trend [1] Section Summaries 1.行情回顾 (Market Review) - This section likely covers the performance of BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil, but specific details are not provided in the given content 2.产区天气 (Weather in Producing Areas) - It focuses on the weather conditions in palm oil - producing areas, yet no specific information is available 3.国际供需 (International Supply and Demand) 3.1 GAPKI 5 - month report - No content related to this report is provided 3.2 Indian SEA 6 - month report - No content related to this report is provided 3.3 Malaysian palm oil July forecast - **Export data**: According to AmSpec on July 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 896,484 tons, a 15.22% month - on - month decrease and a 23.59% year - on - year decrease. Exports of different types of palm oil also declined. For example, 24 - degree palm oil exports decreased by 30.02% month - on - month and 55.52% year - on - year [25]. According to SGS on July 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were 486,404 tons, a 35.99% month - on - month decrease and a 50.29% year - on - year decrease [26] - **Production data**: According to SPPOMA on July 20, 2025, the production increased by 16.19% compared to July 15, 2025. FFB yield increased by 7.03%. According to MPOA on July 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 11.24% compared to the previous month [27][28] 3.4 Other important information - No additional significant information is provided 4.国内供需 (Domestic Supply and Demand) 4.1 Import profit - No content related to import profit is provided 4.2 Palm oil transactions - No content related to palm oil transactions is provided 4.3 Palm oil inventory - No content related to palm oil inventory is provided 5.国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 (Domestic and International Futures and Spot Prices and Price Differences of Oils and Fats) 5.1 Basis, monthly spread, and variety spread - No content related to basis, monthly spread, and variety spread is provided 5.2 Palm oil warehouse receipts and futures positions - No content related to palm oil warehouse receipts and futures positions is provided 5.3 FOB quotes - No content related to FOB quotes is provided
国富棕榈油研究周报:生柴消息扰动,棕榈油价格上涨-20250721
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 13:12
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Guofu Palm Oil Research Weekly Report: Biodiesel News Disturbs, Palm Oil Prices Rise" and is dated July 21, 2025 [1] Group 2: Report Outline - The report includes sections on market review (BMD and DGE palm oil),产区天气 (palm oil producing area weather), international supply - demand (Malaysian palm oil July forecast and other important news), domestic supply - demand (China's June palm oil imports, import profit, palm oil transactions, and palm oil inventory), and domestic and international palm oil futures - spot prices and spreads [4] Group 3: International Supply - Demand (Malaysian Palm Oil Export Forecast) AmSpec Data - Malaysian palm oil exports on July 15, 2025 were 574,121, a - 5.29% change from the previous month and a - 27.42% change from the same period last year. Among them, crude palm oil exports were 159,392, a 2.23% increase from the previous month and a - 33.11% decrease from last year; 24 - degree palm oil exports were 87,042, a - 22.77% change from the previous month and a - 53.10% change from last year [17] SGS Data - Malaysian palm oil exports on July 15, 2025 were 399,366, a - 22.18% change from the previous month and a - 49.24% change from the same period last year. Exports to China were 22,074, a - 59.27% change from the previous month and a - 69.88% change from last year; exports to the US were 33,750, a - 18.76% change from the previous month and a 170.00% change from last year; exports to India were 49,800, a - 15.99% change from the previous month and a - 58.46% change from last year [18]
豆系研究周报:产区天气暂时无忧,CBOT大豆涨幅受限-20250721
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 13:12
Report Title - 【国富豆系研究周报】产区天气暂时无忧,CBOT大豆涨幅受限 [1] Core View - The weather in the production areas is temporarily worry - free, and the increase of CBOT soybeans is limited [1] Summary by Directory I. Market Review - The review includes soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [4] II. Production Area Weather - Focuses on the weather in the US soybean production areas [4] III. International Supply and Demand - Covers the supply and demand of US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans [4] IV. Domestic Supply and Demand - Analyzes the supply and demand of soybean oil and soybean meal [4] V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations - Includes basis, monthly spread, variety spread situations, FOB quotes, and CFTC position situations [4]
【早间看点】ITS马棕7月前20日出口减少3.5%阿根廷24/25年度大豆产量料为5090万吨-20250721
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-21 13:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, and macro - economic news. It also covers international and domestic supply - demand situations for various agricultural products [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight Market - Overnight prices and changes of various futures are presented, such as the closing price of BMD's October Malaysian palm oil at 4316.00 with a previous day's increase of 2.47%. Brent's September contract dropped 0.60% previously and 1.69% overnight [1]. - Currency exchange rates and their changes are also shown, like the US dollar index at 98.44 with a 0.20% decline [1]. 02 Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE's palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal futures in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9000 with a basis of 100 and no change [2]. - Import soybean quotes include CNF premiums and CNF prices for different origins, such as Brazil's CNF premium of 260 cents per bushel and a CNF price of 473 dollars per ton [3]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures and near - to above - normal precipitation from July 23 - 27. The Midwest will have an active rainfall system and rising temperatures, which is generally favorable for crops but may bring high - temperature stress to some areas [4][6]. - International Supply - Demand - - Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 decreased 3.5% compared to the same period last month. The KPK is discussing land conversion from rubber to palm oil for smallholders to obtain MSPO certification [8][9]. - If Indonesia implements the B50 biodiesel blending policy, domestic palm oil consumption may surge by about 3 million tons [10]. - Nigeria plans to stabilize global crude palm oil prices and has increased production to 1.5 million tons [11]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean planting area is estimated to increase, and the production is expected to reach 50.9 million tons [12]. - Canadian rapeseed exports increased, and the commercial inventory is 1.2049 million tons as of July 13 [13]. - Germany's 2025 winter rapeseed production for vegetable oil and biodiesel is expected to increase by 7.1% [14]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose, with different types of ships having different price and profit changes [14]. - Domestic Supply - Demand - - On July 18, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 13% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased [15]. - China's palm oil imports in June increased year - on - year, while soybean oil imports decreased. Rapeseed and mustard oil imports increased [15]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 29th week was 2.3055 million tons, with an operating rate of 64.81% [15]. 04 Macro News - International News - - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in July was 61.8, higher than expected. US new - home starts and building permits in June also showed positive changes [18]. - The eurozone's May seasonally - adjusted current account surplus was 32.307 billion euros [18]. - Domestic News - - On July 18, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upward. The central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 10.28 billion yuan on that day and 120.11 billion yuan for the week [20]. 05 Capital Flow - On July 18, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 2.96 billion yuan, with a 2.187 billion yuan inflow in commodity futures and a 773 million yuan inflow in stock - index futures [23]. 06 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.
国富期货国富期货
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-18 09:36
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report mainly presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, important fundamental information including weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and mentions the expected significant increase in global palm oil prices by the end of 2025 due to supply - demand factors [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - The closing prices, previous day's and overnight percentage changes of various futures such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. are provided. Also, the latest prices, percentage changes, and ten - day percentage changes of major currencies are given [1]. 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 of imported soybeans from different origins are also shown [2]. 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - - The future weather outlook (July 22 - 26) of US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have rainfall and temperatures close to or higher than normal. The Midwest has good soil moisture, with corn and soybeans entering the pollination period, but some areas like northern Indiana need attention [3][5]. -国际供需 - - Malaysia's August crude palm oil reference price is raised, increasing the export tax from 8.5% to 9%. Indonesia has various palm - related policies and production situations. Global palm oil prices are expected to rise by 33% by the end of 2025. The US soybean and related product export sales and production forecasts of different countries are also reported [7][9]. -国内供需 - - On July 17, the trading volume of domestic oils and meals changed. The national sow inventory decreased, and the agricultural department will take measures to stabilize pig production. The agricultural product wholesale price index increased slightly [15]. 04 Macro要闻 -国际要闻 - - The probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate decisions in July and September are given. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, manufacturing index, etc., and Eurozone CPI data are presented [18]. -国内要闻 - - On July 17, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate decreased (renminbi appreciated), and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 3605 billion yuan [19]. 05资金流向 - On July 17, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 135.16 billion yuan, including 63.7 billion yuan in commodity futures and 71.46 billion yuan in stock index futures. The capital inflows of different types of commodity futures are also detailed [22]. 06套利跟踪 No relevant content provided.
【早间看点】SPPOMA马棕7月前15日产量增加17.06%美国6月生柴掺混信用额为6.29亿加仑-20250717
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-17 08:02
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodity market, including overnight and spot market conditions, weather forecasts, international supply - demand situations, domestic market trading data, macro - economic news, and capital flows. It shows the complex interactions among different factors such as weather, policy, and economic indicators that influence the commodity market [1][2][9][14][16]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market - Overnight prices and price changes of various commodities are presented, including palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and related products. Also, currency exchange rates and their changes are provided [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are shown [2]. - Import soybean CNF quotes and CNF premiums in different regions are presented [4]. Weather Forecast - US soybean - producing states' weather from July 21 - 25 will have rainfall and temperatures close to or higher than normal. Most areas in the US Midwest have favorable weather with good soil moisture, which is beneficial for corn and soybean pollination [5][7]. International Supply - Demand - Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 17.06% from July 1 - 15, 2025, while exports decreased by 22.18% compared to the same period last month [9]. - AI is being used to transform the palm oil industry in Malaysia, improving oil extraction rates, increasing uptime, and reducing labor dependence [10]. - India plans to increase domestic palm oil production to 230 million tons by 2029 [10]. - A private exporter reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export sale to an unknown destination for the 2025/2026 delivery [10]. - Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided [11]. - Argentina's soybean sales and export registration data are presented [12]. - Ukraine imposes a 10% export tariff on rapeseed and soybeans, and its rapeseed production forecast for 2025/2026 is given [12][13]. - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index reached a one - month high [13]. Domestic Market Trading - On July 16, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The oil mill operating rate increased [14]. - Agricultural product wholesale price indices and prices of pork and eggs are reported [14]. Macro - Economic News - International news includes Fed interest rate probabilities, US industrial output, PPI, mortgage application, and strategic oil reserve data, as well as Indonesia's central bank interest rate cut [16][17]. - Domestic news includes the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and China's central bank's reverse - repurchase operations [18]. Capital Flows - On July 16, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 14.421 billion yuan, with details on different types of futures [22]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.
国富期货早间看点:ITS马棕7月前15日出口减6.16%,NOPA美豆6月压榨1.857亿蒲高于预期-20250716
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 09:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot market conditions, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, etc. It shows the price movements of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, and analyzes the impact of factors like weather, export data, and macro - economic indicators on the market [1][5][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight price changes of various futures contracts are presented, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc. The price changes of major currency pairs are also provided [1]. Spot Market Conditions - The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal rainfall and higher temperatures from July 20 - 24. Some areas in the US Midwest have received rainfall, and the overall weather conditions are favorable for crops [5][7]. - **Palm Oil**: ITS and AmSpec data show a decline in Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 15. However, UOB Kay Hian analysts believe that exports may increase in July, and production is expected to rise while inventory may remain stable [8][9]. - **Soybeans**: NOPA data shows that US soybean crushing in June was 185.709 million bushels. Anec predicts an increase in Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in July. The EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed have decreased compared to last year [11][12]. - **Shipping**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index continued to rise, with freight rates for all types of ships increasing [13]. - **Trading Volume and Inventory**: On July 15, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the开机 rate of oil mills increased slightly. The port inventories of imported soybeans and soybean oil increased [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International**: The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%. US economic data such as CPI, NY Fed Manufacturing Index, etc., are released. OPEC maintains its global crude oil demand growth forecasts. The economic data of the Eurozone shows positive trends [17][18]. - **Domestic**: The RMB depreciated against the US dollar on July 15. The Chinese central bank conducted a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan. China's Q2 GDP growth rate was 5.2%, and other economic indicators such as retail sales and industrial added - value were also released [20]. Fund Flows - On July 15, the futures market had a net inflow of 11.281 billion yuan, with 4.329 billion yuan in commodity futures (including net outflows in agricultural futures and net inflows in chemical, black - series, and metal futures) and 6.952 billion yuan in stock index futures [23]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.
国富期货早间看点-20250715
Guo Fu Qi Huo· 2025-07-15 02:51
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents a comprehensive overview of the commodities and financial markets, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It highlights significant changes in international and domestic supply - demand situations and macro - economic indicators [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight price and percentage change data are provided for various commodities such as palm oil, crude oil, soybeans, and their related products. Currency exchange rates and their percentage changes are also given, including the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar [1] 02 Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE豆油, and DCE豆粕 in different regions are presented. CNF quotes and CNF升贴水 for imported soybeans from different origins are also included [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information -产区天气 - The future weather outlook (July 19 - 23) for US soybean - producing states shows higher - than - normal rainfall and higher temperatures. The Midwest has a complex weather pattern with intermittent showers and temperature fluctuations. Overall, most areas of corn and soybean crops are in good condition as they enter the pollination stage [3][5] -国际供需 - India's palm oil imports in June increased by 60% month - on - month to 955,683 tons, and total vegetable oil imports rose by 30.6%. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of July 13 was 70%, higher than expected. US soybean export inspection volume was lower than expected. Brazil's soybean exports in the first two weeks of July decreased slightly compared to the previous year. Canada's rapeseed has different growth conditions in different provinces. The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high [7][8][9] -国内供需 - On July 14, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, and the oil mill operating rate rose. China's soybean imports in June decreased slightly from May but increased year - on - year. Imported edible vegetable oil in June increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The commercial inventory of major oils increased. Agricultural product wholesale price indices declined slightly [11][12][13] 04 Macro要闻 -国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 94.8%. A Fed official hopes to see further inflation decline before supporting a rate cut. High - end economists predict US core CPI inflation. Trump threatens to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia. The EU may impose counter - tariffs on US imports. Brazil denies requests related to US tariffs [15][16] -国内要闻 - On July 14, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate increased (yuan depreciation). The Chinese central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of funds. China's M2, M1, and social financing scale increased year - on - year. China's trade surplus in June increased, and Sino - US trade showed signs of recovery [18][19] 05资金流向 - On July 14, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 19.195 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 2.604 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net outflow of 21.798 billion yuan. Different commodities had varying degrees of capital inflow or outflow [21][22] 06套利跟踪 - Not provided in the content