1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro news, and capital flows. Key events include Malaysia's increase in the September export tax on crude palm oil, expected low sunflower seed production in Ukraine, and potential impacts of weather on US crops. [1][9][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Quotes - The closing prices and percentage changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude oil, US soybeans, and others, are presented. Currency exchange rates such as the US dollar index and several other currencies against the US dollar are also provided. [1] Spot Market Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF premiums and quotes for imported soybeans from different origins are also included. [2] Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have higher - than - normal temperatures and mostly median precipitation from August 18th to 22nd. A slow - moving front in the US Midwest will bring rain and temperature changes, which may benefit some crops but also cause flooding in some areas. [5][8] International Supply - related News - Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax of crude palm oil for September. Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange through the use of palm - based biodiesel. Forecasts for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are provided. Brazil's soybean, soybean meal, and corn export volumes for a specific period are predicted. Argentina's soybean sales data is released. Ukraine's rapeseed and sunflower seed production is expected to decline. The Baltic Dry Index has risen. [9][10][11][12] Domestic Supply and Demand - On August 13th, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased, while the trading volume of soybean meal decreased. The national oil mill operating rate declined. Price changes of various agricultural products and livestock products are reported. [14][15][16] Macro News International News - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts in September and October are high. The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut rates. US mortgage application and oil reserve data are provided. The IEA has lowered global oil demand growth forecasts. UAE's refined oil inventory has decreased. [18][19] Domestic News - The US dollar/renminbi exchange rate has decreased (renminbi appreciation). The central bank has conducted reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's July financial statistics show the growth of M2, M1, and M0. [20] Capital Flows - On August 13th, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.391 billion yuan, with 5.129 billion yuan in commodity futures (including inflows in agricultural and chemical futures and outflows in black - series futures) and 22.262 billion yuan in stock index futures. [24]

Report Title - "Guofu Bean Series Research Weekly Report: Potential Tightness in Forward Soybean Imports, Stronger Domestic than Overseas Bean Futures" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Table of Contents I. Market Review - Covers soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil [4] II. Production Area Weather - Includes weather in US soybean production areas and international supply - demand [4] III. International Supply - Demand - Focuses on US, Brazilian, and Argentine soybeans [4] IV. Domestic Supply - Demand - Analyzes soybean oil and soybean meal supply - demand [4] V. Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, Spreads - Considers basis, monthly spreads, variety spreads, and CFTC position situation [4] Price Data - Brazilian soybean quotes for October 2025 rose from 300 to 315 (a week - on - week increase of 15), for February 2026 from 157 to 175 (an increase of 18), for March 2026 from 130 to 142 (an increase of 12), for April 2026 from 120 to 132 (an increase of 12), and for May 2026 from 135 to 155 (an increase of 20) [47] - Argentine soybean quotes for October 2025 were 240, and for November 2025 were 245 [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and grains. It also covers important fundamental information such as weather conditions in the US and their impact on crops, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, macroeconomic news, and capital flows in the futures market. The information is useful for investors to understand the current situation and potential trends in the commodities market [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - The closing price of BMD palm oil 10 was 4254.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.31%. Brent 10 on ICE closed at 66.32, down 0.14% previously and up 0.15% overnight. NYMEX crude oil 09 closed at 63.35, down 0.74% previously and 0.31% overnight. CBOT soybeans 11 closed at 986.50, down 0.80% previously and 0.65% overnight [1]. - The latest value of the US dollar index was 98.25, up 0.19% in ten days. The CNY/USD exchange rate was 7.1382, up 0.05%. The MYR/USD exchange rate was 4.2218, up 0.11%. The IDR/USD exchange rate was 16186, down 0.40%. The BRL/USD exchange rate was 5.3808, down 0.73%. The ARS/USD exchange rate was 1325.000, down 0.08%. The SGD/USD exchange rate was 1.2812, down 0.14% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 9170 with a basis of 120 and no daily change; in East China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change; in South China, it was 9030 with a basis of - 20 and no change [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 8500 with a basis of 84, down 26; in Jiangsu, it was 8600 with a basis of 184, down 96; in Guangdong, it was 8620 with a basis of 204, up 24; in Tianjin, it was 8520 with a basis of 104, down 36 [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, in Shandong, the spot price was 2910 with a basis of - 125, up 2; in Jiangsu, it was 2920 with a basis of - 115, down 8; in Guangdong, it was 2910 with a basis of - 125, down 18; in Tianjin, it was 3000 with a basis of - 35, up 12 [2]. - The CNF quote for imported Brazilian soybeans was 481 dollars/ton with a CNF premium of 315 cents/bushel [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Production Area Weather - From August 13 - 17, temperatures and precipitation in major US soybean - producing states are generally high. The western part of the US Midwest has active rainfall, while the eastern part is relatively dry. Rainfall is beneficial for corn and soybean crops in the northern Great Plains and Midwest [3][5][6]. - In the past week, US temperatures were 1 - 8°F lower than normal, and rainfall in the northwest, northern Great Plains, and southeast was 10 - 85 mm higher than normal. In the next 15 days, US temperatures will be 2 - 6°F higher than normal, and the northern Great Plains and Midwest are expected to have 20 - 75 mm more rainfall than normal [6]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - ITS data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 are estimated at 482,576 tons, a 23.3% increase from the same period last month [8]. - As of the week ending August 5, CBOT soybean long positions decreased by 5999 to 156793, and short positions increased by 22377 to 195953. Similar changes occurred in other related contracts [8]. - The barge freight rate in the middle of the Mississippi River decreased by 5% week - on - week. A section of the Mississippi River was closed, which may delay the transportation of grains from Midwest farms to the US Gulf [8]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending July 31 decreased by 52.1% to 26,400 tons. From August 1, 2024, to July 31, 2025, exports were 9.5186 million tons, a 38.8% increase from the previous year. As of July 31, the commercial inventory was 1.1432 million tons [9]. - France raised its rapeseed production forecast for this year from 4.2 million tons to 4.5 million tons. Russia is expected to produce 5 million tons of rapeseed this year [9]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose for three consecutive days, with the Capesize and Supramax indices driving the increase [10]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 8, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 39,933 tons, a 227% increase from the previous trading day [11]. - On August 8, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 52,500 tons, a decrease of 53,100 tons from the previous day. The operating rate of domestic oil mills was 64.17%, up 1.56% from the previous day [11]. - From August 2 - 8, the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills was 2.1775 million tons, with an operating rate of 61.21%, 35,500 tons lower than expected [11]. - As of the week ending August 8, the profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 45.13 yuan/head, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 134.14 yuan/head [12]. - In July 2025, the average monthly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces was 19.14 yuan/kg, a 3.1% increase month - on - month and a 22.7% decrease year - on - year [12]. - On August 8, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.94, up 0.02 points from the previous day. The average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.41 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from the previous day [13]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - Fed Governor Bowman believes that recent downward revisions to employment growth data highlight the need for the Fed to cut interest rates. She expects to support rate cuts in the remaining three meetings this year [15]. - St. Louis Fed President Mousalem said the Fed faces dual risks in achieving its inflation and employment goals [15]. - The WTO predicts that the global goods trade volume will grow by 0.9% in 2025, up from the previous forecast of - 0.2% [15]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - On August 8, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1382, up 37 points (RMB depreciation) [17]. - On August 8, the People's Bank of China conducted 122 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 536.5 billion yuan [17]. - China's CPI in July was 0% year - on - year, better than the expected - 0.1% [17]. 3.5 Capital Flows - On August 8, 2025, the net capital outflow from the futures market was 8.126 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 1.801 billion yuan, including 1.151 billion yuan in agricultural products, 827 million yuan in chemicals, a net outflow of 777 million yuan in black - series commodities, and 601 million yuan in metals. Stock index futures had a net outflow of 9.927 billion yuan [20]. - Commodities with large capital inflows included lithium carbonate (1.3 billion yuan), gold (1.152 billion yuan), and crude oil (464 million yuan). Those with large outflows included CSI 500 stock index futures (- 2.388 billion yuan) and CSI 300 stock index futures (- 3.029 billion yuan) [19].

2025/8/11 10:03 【国富棕榈油研究周报】MPOB 报告发布在即，棕榈油价格震荡运⾏ 20250811 【国富棕榈油研究周报】MPOB 报告发布在即，棕榈油价格震荡运 行 20250811 国富研究 国富研究 2025年08月11日 07:20 上海 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NZqtcFtsJkg78NTmOFBVcQ 1/15 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | | 二、产区天气 | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 . | | 1. | 马棕 7-8 月预测 | | 2. | 其他重要资讯 6 | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | | 1. 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/NZqtcFtsJkg7 ...

2025/8/8 10:46 【国富期货早间看点】USDA美⾖当周出⼝净增101.29万吨⾼于预期 Anec巴西⼤⾖8⽉出⼝料为815万吨 20250808 | 期货 | 现货 | 现货价格 | 基差 | 基差隔日变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DCE棕榈油2509 | 华北 | 9060 | 120 | 0 | | | 华东 | 8920 | -20 | -40 | | | 华南 | 8920 | -20 | 0 | | DCE豆油2509 | 山东 | 8500 | 110 | 90 | | | 江苏 | 8670 | 280 | 0 | | | 广东 | 8570 | 180 | -20 | | | 天津 | 8530 | 140 | 20 | | DCE豆粕2509 | 山东 | 2890 | -127 | 5 | | | 江苏 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 广东 | 2910 | -107 | 5 | | | 天津 | 2970 | -47 | -5 | | | 地区 | CNF升贴水 (美分/蒲式耳) | CNF升贴水变化 | CNF ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on international and domestic supply - demand, macro - economic news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking. It covers commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, crude oil, and financial instruments like stock index futures. Summary by Directory 01 Overnight行情 - Overnight closing prices and price changes of various futures are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. For example, BMD palm oil 10 closed at 4257.00 with a previous - day decline of 0.54% and an overnight decline of 0.23% [1]. - Price changes of major currencies are also given, such as the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. The US dollar index was at 98.21 with a decline of 0.56% [1]. 02现货行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2509, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in North China is 9100 with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are presented, like the CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 315 cents per bushel and the CNF quote is 480 dollars per ton [2]. 03重要基本面信息 - 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (August 11 - 15) for US soybean - producing states shows generally high temperatures and precipitation close to or above the median. Most states will have above - normal temperatures (A) and above - median precipitation (A) [3][4]. - The weather in the US Midwest will see a temperature drop later this week, with good soil moisture in most areas. There will be sporadic showers in different parts at different times [5]. - 国际供需 - MPOA data shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in July 2025 is estimated to increase by 9.01% to 1.84 million tons, with different changes in different regions [7]. - SPPOMA data indicates that from August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.39%, and production decreased by 17.27% [7]. - Forecasts for palm oil production in different countries are given: Malaysia's 2024/25 production is estimated to be 19.2 million tons (up 1% from the previous forecast), Indonesia's is 48.8 million tons (unchanged), and Thailand's is 3.52 million tons (unchanged) [8]. - Nigeria plans to plant 100 million oil palm trees and revitalize the cocoa industry [8]. - Analysts expect US soybean export sales to increase by 30 - 80 thousand tons in the week ending July 31, 2025, with different projections for 2024/25 and 2025/26 [9]. - Brazil exported 12.25732536 million tons of soybeans in July 2025, with a 9% increase in daily average export volume compared to the same period last year [9]. - As of July 30, 2025, Argentine farmers sold 528.9 thousand tons of 2024/25 soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 27.9605 million tons [10]. - Wet weather has delayed the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK, and the 2025/26 rapeseed production is expected to be 20.3 million tons (unchanged) [10]. - 国内供需 - On August 6, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 52.8 thousand tons, a 185.41% increase from the previous trading day [12]. - On August 6, 2025, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 311.5 thousand tons, a decrease of 1.5959 million tons from the previous day. The national dynamic full - sample oil mill operating rate was 61.63%, a 1.18% increase from the previous day [12]. - From July 21 - 27, 2025, the average purchase price of live pigs in designated slaughtering enterprises was 15.84 yuan/kg, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week and an 18.7% decrease year - on - year [13]. - On August 6, 2025, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 113.78, a 0.26 - point increase from the previous day [13]. 04宏观要闻 - 国际要闻 - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September 2025 is 6.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 93.6% [15]. - The US MBA mortgage application activity index for the week ending August 1, 2025, was 253.4, with different values for purchase and refinancing indices [15]. - The US global supply - chain pressure index in July 2025 was 0.07, down from 0.14 in the previous month [15]. - Fed's Kashkari believes that the Fed should respond to the economic slowdown and that two rate cuts this year seem appropriate, but may pause or even raise rates if inflation rises due to tariffs [15]. - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on imported semiconductor - containing products, with exemptions for companies producing in the US [15]. - The US White House announced that Trump signed an executive order to impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods in response to India's continued purchase of Russian oil [15]. - As of August 1, 2025, the US EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory was 235 thousand barrels, and the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 3.029 million barrels [16]. - In June 2025, the euro - area retail trade volume increased by 0.3% month - on - month and 3.1% year - on - year [16]. - 国内要闻 - On August 6, 2025, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.1409, with a 43 - point increase (CNY depreciation) [18]. - On August 6, 2025, the People's Bank of China conducted 138.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170.5 billion yuan due to 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities [18]. 05资金流向 - On August 6, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.244 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net inflow of 3.11 billion yuan (including 0.31 billion yuan in agricultural product futures, 1.543 billion yuan in chemical futures, 2.487 billion yuan in black - series futures, and a net outflow of 1.23 billion yuan in metal futures), and stock index futures having a net inflow of 6.134 billion yuan [22]. - Capital flow data for various futures products are presented, such as the net capital inflow for CSI 1000 stock index futures is 49.35 and for CSI 500 stock index futures is 19.77 [21]. 06套利跟踪 No specific content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information, macro - news, fund flows, etc. It covers multiple aspects of the agricultural and energy futures, as well as international and domestic macro - economic factors that may impact the market [1][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight行情 - The closing prices and price changes of various futures, including Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude oil, US crude oil, US soybeans, etc., are presented. The US dollar index and exchange rates of multiple currencies against the US dollar are also provided [1]. Spot行情 - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are given. CNF quotes and CNF premium information for imported soybeans are also included [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区天气 - The future weather outlook (August 10 - 14) for US soybean - producing states shows that most areas will have higher - than - normal temperatures and precipitation. The US Midwest planting belt will have showers this week, with good soil moisture in most areas [3][5]. 国际供需 - Malaysia plans to increase the allocation for palm oil replanting projects from 2026 - 2030. In 2024, the replanting rate was only 2%, far below the 4% target. Brazil's soybean sales data for different seasons are provided. EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in 2025/26 are lower than the previous year. The Baltic Dry Index continued to decline [7][9]. 国内供需 - On August 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased. The trading volume of soybean meal increased, while the oil - mill operating rate decreased. The national soybean oil port inventory increased. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" rose slightly [10]. Macro - news 国际要闻 - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and October is high. US economic data such as retail sales, PMI, trade balance, and API crude oil inventory are presented. Trump made statements on tariffs and the Fed chair. Eurozone's PPI and PMI data are also provided [11][13]. 国内要闻 - On August 5, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate decreased (yuan appreciated). The central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and achieved a net withdrawal of funds. China's futures market trading volume and turnover in July increased year - on - year [15]. Fund Flows - On August 5, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 4.689 billion yuan, with commodity futures having a net inflow of 5.333 billion yuan and stock index futures having a net outflow of 0.644 billion yuan [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive overview of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, important fundamental information on weather, international and domestic supply - demand, macro news, fund flows, and arbitrage tracking for commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and related products. Specific Summaries by Section Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 10 was 4,218.00, with a previous - day decline of 1.39% and an overnight decline of 0.76% [1]. - Brent 10 (ICE) closed at 68.68, with a previous - day decline of 1.21% and an overnight decline of 0.85% [1]. - NYMEX US crude oil 09 closed at 66.24, with a previous - day decline of 1.52% and an overnight decline of 0.94% [1]. - CBOT US soybeans 11 closed at 994.50, with a previous - day increase of 0.66% and an overnight decline of 0.13% [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot price in North China was 8,920, with a basis of 120 and no change in basis from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 8,330, with a basis of 80 and a basis decline of 2 from the previous day [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong was 2,900, with a basis of - 118 and a basis decline of 9 from the previous day [2]. Important Fundamental Information Weather in Production Areas - US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - normal temperature and precipitation from August 9 - 13 [4]. - The Midwest planting belt in the US will be mostly dry this week, with soil moisture remaining good. A front has passed, bringing cooler temperatures [6]. International Supply - Demand - Reuters survey shows that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 is expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June [8]. - As of June 30, 2025, 89.6% (5.03 million hectares) of Malaysia's oil palm plantations had MSPO certification [8]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate as of August 3, 2025, was 69%, in line with market expectations [10]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On August 4, 2025, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 33,150 tons, a 25% decrease from the previous trading day [14]. - As of August 1, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils in key regions in China was 2.3611 million tons, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week [14]. Macro News International News - The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 5.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 94.4% [17]. - The US factory orders in June decreased by 4.8% month - on - month, in line with expectations [17]. Domestic News - On August 4, 2025, the central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was 7.1395, up 101 points (appreciation of the RMB) [19]. - On August 4, 2025, the central bank conducted 544.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows On August 4, 2025, the futures market had a net inflow of 778 million yuan, with a net inflow of 2.6 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 1.822 billion yuan in stock index futures [21]. Arbitrage Tracking No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the futures market on August 4, 2025, covering overnight and spot market quotes, important fundamental information, macro - economic news, capital flows, and arbitrage tracking. It focuses on the performance of various commodities such as palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil, as well as international and domestic economic indicators. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Quotes - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil in October was 4,245.00, with a previous day's increase of 0.35%. Brent crude oil in October on ICE was at 69.52, a decrease of 3.15% the previous day and 0.20% overnight. NYMEX US crude oil in September was at 67.26, down 3.03% the previous day and 0.06% overnight [1]. - The US dollar index was at 98.67, a decrease of 1.32%. The exchange rates of various currencies against the US dollar showed different trends, with the Malaysian ringgit, Indonesian rupiah, Brazilian real, and Singapore dollar appreciating, while the Argentine peso depreciated [1]. Spot Quotes - For DCE palm oil 2509, the spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 9,040, 8,910, and 8,900 respectively, with corresponding basis values of 120, - 10, and - 20, and basis changes of - 10, - 40, and 0 [2]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 8,300, 8,520, 8,460, and 8,390 respectively, with basis values and changes varying by region [2]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Tianjin were 2,890, 2,890, 2,870, and 2,970 respectively, with corresponding basis values and changes [2]. - The CNF quotes for imported soybeans from Brazil and Argentina were 474 and 452 dollars per ton respectively, with CNF premiums of 300 and 240 cents per bushel [2]. Important Fundamental Information - **Weather in Production Areas**: US soybean - producing states are expected to have above - average temperatures from August 6 - 10, with more precipitation in the northwest and northeast. The weather in the US Midwest is currently favorable for corn and soybean growth, with occasional rainfall and temperature fluctuations [3][5]. - **International Supply and Demand**: In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 7.07% according to SPPOMA. Indonesia exported 2.07 million tons of crude palm oil and its products in June. There were also changes in the positions of various agricultural products futures, US soybean crushing volume, Canadian rapeseed exports, and Nigeria's plan to double soybean planting area by 2027 [9][10][11]. - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: On August 1, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 31% compared to the previous day. There were also changes in the trading volume and开机 rate of soybean meal, soybean crushing volume, Brazilian soybean shipping plans to China, pig - breeding profits, and agricultural product wholesale prices [14][15]. Macro - economic News - **International News**: US economic data in July showed mixed results, with lower - than - expected non - farm payrolls, slightly higher unemployment rate, and inflation expectations. The ISM and S&P Global manufacturing PMIs also had different performances. There were discussions about OPEC+ production increases [18][20]. - **Domestic News**: On August 1, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted upwards. The Chinese central bank carried out reverse - repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of funds on the day and a net injection for the week. Newly - issued government bond interest income will be subject to VAT starting from August 8 [22]. Capital Flows - On August 1, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 9.63 billion yuan, with 1.091 billion yuan from commodity futures (697 million yuan inflow in agricultural product futures, 140 million yuan inflow in chemical futures, 1.293 billion yuan outflow in black - series futures, and 635 million yuan outflow in metal futures) and 8.539 billion yuan from stock - index futures [25]. - The capital flows of major futures varieties varied, with inflows in some commodities like soybean oil and gold, and outflows in others such as crude oil and copper [24]. Arbitrage Tracking No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information regarding the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions for various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and crude oil. It also presents important fundamental information on factors such as weather conditions, international and domestic supply - demand dynamics, and macroeconomic news. Additionally, it details the capital flow in the futures market and conducts arbitrage tracking [1][2][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overnight Market Conditions - **Futures**: The closing prices and price changes of various futures contracts, such as BMD's October palm oil, ICE's October Brent crude, and NYMEX's September US crude oil, are presented. For example, BMD's October palm oil closed at 4259.00, with a previous - day increase of 0.54% and an overnight decrease of 0.42% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices and price changes of multiple currencies, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are provided. For instance, the US dollar index was at 99.94, with an increase of 1.05% [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Futures - Spot**: The spot prices, basis, and basis changes of various futures contracts, such as DCE's 2509 palm oil, 2509 soybean oil, and 2509 soybean meal, are given. For example, the spot price of DCE's 2509 palm oil in North China is 9110, with a basis of 130 and a basis change of 0 [2]. 3.3 Important Fundamental Information 3.3.1 Weather Conditions in Producing Areas - **US Soybean Producing States**: The future weather outlook from August 4th to 8th shows that the temperature in the main soybean - producing states is high, and the precipitation in the northwest is higher than the average. The temperature in the Midwest planting belt is expected to drop, and the growth conditions are still relatively favorable [5][7]. 3.3.2 International Supply - Demand - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year, from 6.1 million tons in the same period last year to 9.3 million tons [9]. - **US Soybean Exports**: As of the week ending July 24th, US soybean export sales are expected to increase by 20 - 90 million tons, with 10 - 30 million tons for the 2024/25 season and 10 - 60 million tons for the 2025/26 season [10]. - **Argentine Soybean Sales**: As of July 23rd, Argentine farmers sold 78.77 million tons of 24/25 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 2743.16 million tons, and 4.3 million tons of 25/26 season soybeans, with a cumulative sales volume of 48.95 million tons [11]. - **Ukrainian Rapeseed**: As of July 25th, Ukrainian farmers have harvested about 100 million tons of rapeseed, lower than 330 million tons in the same period last year. The market has revised down the 2025 rapeseed production forecast to 240 - 250 million tons [12]. - **Baltic Dry Index**: On Wednesday, the Baltic Dry Index fell for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a two - week low, due to a decline in demand for all ship types [13]. 3.3.3 Domestic Supply - Demand - **Oil Product Transactions**: On July 30th, the total transaction volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 102,566 tons, a 108% increase from the previous trading day. The total transaction volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 30.49 million tons, a decrease of 13.05 million tons from the previous day [14]. - **Agricultural Product Prices**: The average weekly price of lean - type white - striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities) from July 21st to July 25th, 2025, was 18.73 yuan per kilogram, a 2.2% week - on - week decrease and a 25.7% year - on - year decrease [14]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News 3.4.1 International News - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 54.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 45.7%. US economic data such as ADP employment, GDP, and PCE price index are also presented [17]. - **FOMC Statement**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% - 4.50%, with two governors advocating for a rate cut [18]. - **Eurozone Economic Data**: The Eurozone's second - quarter GDP annual rate is 1.4%, and the industrial and economic sentiment indices in July are - 10.4 and 95.8 respectively [19]. 3.4.2 Domestic News - **Exchange Rate and Monetary Policy**: On July 30th, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was 7.1441, down 70 points. The central bank conducted 309 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan [21]. - **Housing Loan Interest Rate**: In the second quarter of 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in China was 3.09% [21]. 3.5 Capital Flow On July 30th, 2025, the net inflow of funds in the futures market was 18.187 billion yuan, with 6.098 billion yuan in commodity futures (including 205 million yuan in agricultural product futures, 5.324 billion yuan in chemical futures, 131 million yuan in black - series futures, and 439 million yuan in metal futures) and 12.089 billion yuan in stock index futures [24]. 3.6 Arbitrage Tracking There is no detailed information on arbitrage tracking in the provided content.