1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The global vegetable oil market is entering a shortage phase due to reduced production and increased demand, with palm oil production declining and demand remaining high, especially from the biofuel industry [12]. - The weather in the US soybean - producing states and the Midwest region will have an impact on soybean production, and the current soybean growth indicators have certain deviations from expectations [7][9][13]. - Various countries' economic data and policies, such as the Fed's interest - rate decisions, the US's trade policies, and OPEC+'s oil production decisions, will affect the commodity and financial markets [23][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market Quotes - **Futures**: Closing prices, previous day's and overnight price changes of commodities like Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, etc. are presented. For example, the closing price of Brent 08 (ICE) is $65.12, with a previous day's increase of 4.01% and an overnight decrease of 0.46% [1]. - **Currencies**: The latest prices, price changes, and 10 - day price changes of currencies such as the US dollar index, Chinese yuan, Malaysian ringgit, etc. are shown. For instance, the US dollar index is at 98.70, with a decrease of 0.72% [2]. 02 Spot Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot**: Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are provided. For example, the spot price of DCE soybean oil 2509 in Shandong is 7920 yuan, with a basis of 274 yuan and a basis change of 1 yuan [4]. 03 Important Fundamental Information **产区天气 - (Weather in Producing Areas)** - **US Soybean Producing States**: Future weather forecasts (June 7 - 11) show that most areas will have higher - than - average rainfall and lower temperatures in the central part. The Midwest will have more widespread showers and thunderstorms [7][9]. - **Canada**: Multiple provinces are facing spring forest wildfires, with the forest fire prevention level reaching the highest level of 5, and the cumulative burned area approaching 890,000 hectares [10]. **Industry Data** - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia's May palm oil exports increased by 17.9% compared to the previous month. Indonesia's palm oil production, exports, and inventory data show different trends in different periods [11]. - **CFTC Position Report**: Changes in long and short positions of CBOT soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal, and ICE rapeseed as of the week of May 27 are reported [11]. - **USDA Reports**: Include crop growth, drought monitoring, export inspection, export sales, and monthly crushing reports, which reflect the growth, export, and processing status of US soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal [13][14][15][16]. - **South American Data**: Brazil's 2024/25 soybean production forecast is revised upward, and Argentina's soybean harvest progress and agricultural export revenue are reported [16]. - **EU Data**: The next - year's EU rapeseed, sunflower seed, and soybean production forecasts are adjusted [17]. - **Canada**: The progress of spring rapeseed sowing in Saskatchewan and Alberta is reported [17]. **Domestic Supply and Demand** - **Commodity Transactions**: On May 30, the trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased, and the trading volume of soybean meal also decreased. The开机率 of oil mills decreased [19]. - **Livestock Farming**: Pig - farming profits show different trends, and the price of agricultural products and livestock products has changes [19][20]. 04 Macro - economic News **International News** - **US Economic Data**: The probability of the Fed's interest - rate decisions in June and July, US manufacturing PMI, construction spending, GDP growth forecasts, and trade policies are reported. For example, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 95.3% [23][24]. - **OPEC+**: OPEC+ agrees to increase daily oil production by 411,000 barrels for the third consecutive month [24]. - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's May manufacturing PMI final value is 49.4 [25]. **Domestic News** - **Exchange Rate**: On May 30, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate is adjusted downward (the Chinese yuan appreciates) [26]. - **Monetary Policy**: The Chinese central bank conducts 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment [26]. - **Economic Data**: China's May official manufacturing PMI is 49.5, and the balance of RMB loans at the end of the first quarter of 2025 is reported [26]. 05 Key Information Analysis - **MPOB Report**: Malaysia's April palm oil ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with production, exports, imports, and consumption showing different trends, and the report has a negative impact [27]. - **USDA Report**: The USDA's May supply - demand report has different impacts on the 24/25 and 25/26 market years of US soybeans, with the 25/26 market - year ending inventory forecast being lower than expected, and the report has a positive impact [28]. 06 Fund Flows - On May 30, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 20.404 billion yuan, including a net outflow of 1.427 billion yuan in commodity futures and 18.977 billion yuan in stock - index futures [31]. 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The increase in Malaysia's biodiesel blending ratio in transport vehicles and the rainfall in the US soybean - growing areas may impact the market. The MPOB April report on Malaysian palm oil is bearish, while the USDA May report on US soybeans is bullish. [7][18] - Attention should be paid to the subsequent production and export changes of Malaysian palm oil and the impact on the inventory - building rhythm, as well as the impact of US weather on soybean production. [18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Quotes - Overnight quotes for commodities such as Malaysian palm oil, Brent crude, US crude, US soybeans, and related products, as well as currency quotes including the US dollar index and various exchange rates, are presented, along with their price changes. For example, the closing price of Malaysian palm oil 08 (BMD) is 3903.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.87% and an overnight decline of - 0.76%. [1] 02 Spot Quotes - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes for futures contracts such as DCE palm oil 2505, DCE soybean oil 2509, and DCE soybean meal 2509 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2509 in East China is 8620, with a basis of 450 and a basis change of 0. [2] 03 Important Fundamental Information - Production Area Weather - The future weather outlook (June 3 - 7) for US soybean - producing states shows that temperature and precipitation are close to or higher than normal levels in most areas. The Midwest has more rainfall, which is beneficial for sown areas, but may affect sowing in some southern regions. [3][6] - Policy and Market News - Malaysia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio in transport vehicles from B10 to B20. Indonesia has implemented a B40 mandatory blending plan and is considering raising it to B50. [7] - An EU anti - deforestation law will impose new import restrictions. Four countries are classified as "high - risk" and major palm - oil producing countries are "standard - risk", with different compliance inspection rates. [8] - Export and Inventory Data - Market expectations for US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil export sales are given. Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 10.36% to 16.01 tons in the week ending May 25, but increased by 59.29% year - on - year from August 1, 2024, to May 25, 2025. As of May 25, the commercial inventory was 91.99 tons. [8][9] - Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 29, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 1026% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal in major oil mills increased, and the overall oil mill startup rate was 63.44%, up 0.75% from the previous day. [11] 04 Macro - economic News - International News - The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 96.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 3.8%. US economic data such as initial jobless claims, GDP, and the existing home sales index are released. [13] - There are developments regarding US tariffs and trade agreements, including a federal court's suspension of a tariff - related ruling. [14] - Domestic News - The central bank conducted 2660 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 29, with a net investment of 1115 billion yuan. [16] 05 Supply - Demand Reports - The MPOB April report on Malaysian palm oil shows a significant increase in production and inventory, which is bearish. The USDA May report on US soybeans shows an increase in exports and a decrease in ending stocks, which is bullish. [18] 06 Capital Flows - On May 29, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 197.96 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net outflow of 22.39 billion yuan, while stock index futures had a net inflow of 220.35 billion yuan. [22] 07 Arbitrage Tracking No relevant content provided.

02 现货行情 2025/5/29 10:11 【国富期货早间看点】印尼下调6 CPO 856.38 / 市场预期阿根廷⼤⾖产量降⾄4870 20250529 【国富期货早间看点】印尼下调6月CPO参考价至856.38美元/吨 市 场预期阿根廷大豆产量降至4870万吨 20250529 2025年05月29日 07:34 上海 | | 收盘价 | 上日 漆跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3882. 00 | 0. 80 | -0. 44 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 64. 33 | 0.93 | 0. 14 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61.86 | 1.29 | 0. 31 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1048. 50 | -1.25 | -0.52 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 293.80 | -0. 74 | -0. 27 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48.88 | -1.61 | -0.02 | 01 隔夜行情 | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日涨跌幅 | | --- ...

【国富期货早间看点】美豆种植率为76%低于市场预期 Anec下调巴 西大豆5月出口预估至1403万吨 20250528 2025年05月28日 07:29 上海 01 隔夜行情 2025/5/28 09:55 【国富期货早间看点】美⾖种植率为76% Anec 5 1403 20250528 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3862. 00 | 1.02 | -0. 16 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 63.74 | -0. 69 | 0. 85 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61. 07 | -1. 12 | 0. 89 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1061. 75 | 0. 09 | 0.00 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 296.00 | -0. 03 | 0. 03 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.68 | 0.93 | 0. 32 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99.57 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MPOB April palm oil supply - demand report has a negative impact due to a significant increase in production and higher - than - expected ending inventory [24]. - The USDA May supply - demand report has a positive impact as the 25/26 annual US soybean ending inventory estimate is lower than market expectations [25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Overnight Market - The closing price of BMD Malaysian palm oil 08 is 3819.00, with a previous day's decline of 0.05% and an overnight decline of - 0.26% [1]. - The closing price of ICE Brent 08 is 64.18, with a previous day's decline of - 0.33% and an overnight increase of 0.31% [1]. - The closing price of NYMEX US crude oil 07 is 61.53, with a previous day's decline of - 0.37% and an overnight increase of 0.34% [1]. - The US dollar index is 98.99, with a decline of - 0.09% [2]. - The CNY/USD exchange rate is 7.1833, with a decline of - 0.12% [2]. - The MYR/USD exchange rate is 4.2317, with a decline of - 0.83% [2]. - The IDR/USD exchange rate is 16215, with a decline of - 0.57% [2]. - The BRL/USD exchange rate is 5.6464, with a decline of - 1.03% [2]. - The ARS/USD exchange rate is 1143.000, with an increase of 1.06% [2]. - The SGD/USD exchange rate is 1.2851, with a decline of - 0.42% [2]. 02 Spot Market - For DCE palm oil 2505, the spot price in East China is 8440, with a basis of 470 and a daily basis change of - 10; in South China, the spot price is 8420, with a basis of 450 and a daily basis change of - 30 [3]. - For DCE soybean oil 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 7980, with a basis of 266 and a daily basis change of - 18; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 8020, with a basis of 306 and a daily basis change of - 8; in Guangdong, the spot price is 8000, with a basis of 286 and a daily basis change of - 38; in Tianjin, the spot price is 7900, with a basis of 186 and a daily basis change of - 18 [3]. - For DCE soybean meal 2509, the spot price in Shandong is 2880, with a basis of - 73 and a daily basis change of - 39; in Jiangsu, the spot price is 2870, with a basis of - 83 and a daily basis change of - 19; in Guangdong, the spot price is 2900, with a basis of - 53 and a daily basis change of 1; in Tianjin, the spot price is 2960, with a basis of 7 and a daily basis change of - 9 [3]. - The CNF premium for Brazilian soybeans is 145 cents per bushel, and the CNF quote is 443 dollars per ton [5]. 03 Important Fundamental Information Weather Forecast - From May 31 to June 4, in the northeastern US soybean - producing states, the temperature is higher than normal and the precipitation is generally low [6]. - In the US Midwest, there will be rainfall and low temperatures. Recent heavy precipitation is beneficial for soil moisture, but it may delay sowing in the southern areas. Frost may occur in the northern remote areas [8]. International Supply and Demand - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 0.73%, with a 1.06% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.34% increase in oil extraction rate [10]. - From May 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports were estimated to be 991,702 tons (AmSpec) and 947,248 tons (SGS), increasing by 7.3% and 34.71% respectively compared to the same period last month [10][11]. - In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to Algeria increased by nearly 82% to about 79,000 tons [11]. - Thailand's domestic trade department requires the palm oil purchase price to be no less than 5 Thai baht per kilogram and the retail price of bottled palm oil to be no more than 50 Thai baht per liter [11]. - The estimated Brazilian soybean production in 2024/25 is 1.720 billion tons, and the corn production is 1.327 billion tons [11]. - As of May 24, 2024/25, the Brazilian soybean harvest rate was 99.5% [12]. - In the 4th week of May 2025, Brazil's soybean loading volume was 11.1543 million tons, and the daily average loading volume increased by 8.96% compared to May last year [12]. - The EU's 2025 rapeseed yield per unit is predicted to be 3.14 tons per hectare [12]. - In April 2025, Canada's soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes decreased by 7.2% and 10.27% respectively compared to the previous month [13]. - Ukraine's 2025/26 rapeseed price increased, and the estimated production is 3.25 million tons, lower than the 2024/25 level [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On May 26, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 24,100 tons, a decrease of 42% compared to the previous trading day [16]. - On May 26, the trading volume of soybean meal was 114,600 tons, a decrease of 76,800 tons compared to the previous day [16]. - The operating rate of all - sample oil mills was 66.73%, an increase of 2.86% compared to the previous day [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the total commercial inventory of three major oils was 1.8018 million tons, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil was 338,700 tons, a decrease of 5.84% compared to the previous week [17]. - As of May 23, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 697,200 tons, an increase of 6.23% compared to the previous week [17]. - It is expected that the imported soybean arrivals in June and July will be 12 million tons and 9.5 million tons respectively, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills will increase significantly [17]. 04 Macroeconomic News International News - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.6% [21]. - The EU plans to accelerate trade negotiations with the US, and Trump postponed the deadline for imposing a 50% tariff on the EU to July 9 [21]. - OPEC+ adjusted the July production decision - making meeting to May 31, and there are rumors that the daily production may increase by 411,000 barrels in July [21]. Domestic News - On May 26, the US dollar/renminbi exchange rate was 7.1833, a decrease of 86 points [23]. - On May 26, the central bank conducted 382 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 247 billion yuan [23]. 05 Supply - Demand Reports - Malaysia's April palm oil ending inventory increased by 19.37% to 1.866 million tons, with a negative impact on the market [24]. - The USDA May report adjusted the 24/25 US soybean exports upward and the ending inventory downward. The 25/26 US soybean ending inventory estimate was lower than market expectations, with a positive impact [25]. 06 Capital Flow - On May 26, 2025, the futures market had a net capital outflow of 10.219 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.48 billion yuan in commodity futures and a net outflow of 11.699 billion yuan in stock index futures [28].

| | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 99.90 | 0. 32 | | 人民币(CNY/USD) | 7. 1903 | -0. 05 | | 马来林吉特(MYR/USD) | 4. 2622 | -0. 40 | | 印尼卢比(IDR/USD) | 16379 | 0. 18 | | 巴西里亚尔(BRL/USD) | 5. 6355 | -0.24 | | 阿根廷比索(ARS/USD) | 1135. 500 | -0.92 | | 新中(SGD/USD) | 1. 2890 | -0. 31 | 2025/5/23 09:49 【国富期货早间看点】UOB 5 20 1% 3% 32.29 20250523 【国富期货早间看点】UOB马棕5月前20日产量预计减1%至增3% 美豆当周净出口销售32.29万吨符合预期 20250523 2025年05月23日 07:30 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日漆跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 38 ...

2025/5/22 10:05 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA 5 20 3.72% 4 339.5 20250522 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕5月前20日产量增加3.72% 阿 根廷4月大豆压榨量为339.5万吨 20250522 2025年05月22日 07:31 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3905.00 | -0. 36 | 0. 23 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 64. 58 | -1.55 | -1.04 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61. 34 | -1.46 | -0.98 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1061. 75 | 0. 71 | -0.23 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 293. 70 | 0. 44 | 0. 07 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.75 | 0. 36 | -0.66 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

2025/5/20 09:48 【国富期货早间看点】⻢来下调6⽉⽑棕榈油参考价格⾄9.5% 66% 20250520 【国富期货早间看点】马来下调6月毛棕榈油参考价格至9.5%的出口 关税区间 美豆播种率为66%高于市场预期 20250520 2025年05月20日 07:28 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日漆跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3915.00 | 1.89 | 0. 80 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 65. 48 | 0.23 | 0. 48 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 62. 15 | 0. 36 | 0. 65 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1051. 25 | 0. 02 | 0. 31 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 291. 20 | -0. 21 | 0. 10 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 49.48 | 1.14 | 0. 86 | | | 最新价 | 漆跌幅(%) | 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美元 ...

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调⽑棕榈油出⼝专项税 66% 20250519 【国富期货早间看点】GAPKI敦促推迟上调毛棕榈油出口专项税 阿 根廷大豆收割率达66%领先于去年同期 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 | | | | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油07(BMD) | 3825.00 | -0.96 | 1 | | 布伦特07(ICE) | 65. 33 | 1.10 | 0.57 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 61.93 | 1.14 | 0. 58 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1051.00 | -0. 21 | -0. 02 | | 美豆粕07(CBOT) | 291. 80 | -1.52 | -0. 17 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 48.92 | -0. 81 | -0. 39 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 100. 96 | 0. ...

2025/5/19 10:08 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国⽣柴政策扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 【国富棕榈油研究周报】美国生柴政策扰动，棕榈油价格震荡加剧 20250519 2025年05月19日 07:20 上海 | í | 行情回顾 | | --- | --- | | 1. | BMD 马棕 | | 2. | DCE 棕榈油 | | í í | 产区天气 . | | | 1. 棕榈油产区天气 | | 三、 | 国际供需 | | 1. | MPOB 4 月报告 | | 2. | 印度 SEA 4 月报告 | | 3. | 马棕5月预测 | | 4. | 其他重要资讯 ... | | 四、 | 国内供需 | | 1. | 进口利润 | | 2. | 棕榈油成交 | | 3. | 棕榈油库存 | | 五、 | 国内外油脂期现价格、价差情况 13 | | 1. | 基差、月差、品种差情况 | | 2. | 棕榈油仓单数量和期货持仓量 | | | 3. FOB 报价 | https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/dABm5MPGrK7lbUmFlSQxoA 2/19 https://mp. ...