Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the downward trend of both domestic and foreign sugar markets persists. Fundamentally, potential new import licenses and unexpectedly high syrup imports will continue to pressure the market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract is expected to decline after the macro - heat subsides, with limited upward space near the 5500 price support level. Rolling short - selling is recommended [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 1.7778 million tons, a 3.12% increase. Imported syrups and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons in July, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The supply situation is bearish, but the staggered supply of processed and domestic sugar eases market pressure. Continuous attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar [9]. - **Demand**: Despite being in the domestic consumption peak season, demand release is lower than expected, and the concentrated supply of processed sugar is increasing supply pressure, so the demand outlook is bearish [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic sugar mills have low inventories, but social inventories are at a moderately high level. The possible issuance of a second batch of import licenses will put pressure on processed sugar in the later stage, and the inventory situation is neutral [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 5, the registered sugar warehouse receipts were 12,476, with 6 valid forecasts, totaling 12,482, down from 13,917 the previous week. The warehouse receipt situation is neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The spot and futures prices are both declining, market trading sentiment is cautious, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines. The overall spot trading is light, and the basis situation is neutral [9]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped significantly, and the out - of - quota import profit has increased slightly. The profit situation is neutral [9]. - **Macro**: In China, there are expectations of more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter due to weak economic data. In the US, hard data has weakened significantly, with disappointing non - farm payrolls data and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since 2021. The macro situation is neutral [9]. - **Strategy**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract is under pressure. With potential negative factors in the later stage, the 01 contract may rebound near the 5500 price support level, but the upward space is limited. Rolling short - selling is advisable [9]. 02 This Week's Sugar Market News - **Global Supply - Demand**: The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply deficit in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant reduction compared to the 4879,000 - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season [14]. - **Brazilian Production and Shipping**: In the first half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a sugarcane crush of 47.63 million tons, an 8.17% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a 15.96% increase. As of September 3, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 87, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.207 million tons, a 17.81% increase from the previous week [14][15]. 03 Weekly Sugar Data - **Foreign (Brazil)**: - In the first half of August, the sugarcane crush in Brazil's central - southern region increased by 3.596 million tons year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 497,000 tons [20]. - As of the first half of August in the 2025/26 season, cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 1.12 million tons year - on - year, a 4.67% decline [23]. - **Domestic**: - The domestic sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.1621 million tons, a 12.03% increase year - on - year, slightly lower than expected [26]. - As of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a 7.34% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 74.11%, a 2.54 - percentage - point slowdown [30]. - The cumulative sugar sales reached 8.1138 million tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 6.52 - percentage - point acceleration [33]. - In July 2025, imports of syrups and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons [41]. - The out - of - quota import cost has decreased this week [45]. - As of September 5, the total number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from the previous week [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term cotton market will experience range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. New cotton is about to be listed, and the expected increase in production will put pressure on cotton prices. However, the current low inventory in the industrial chain and the motivation for seasonal restocking provide support at the bottom. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly within the range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and in the medium term, wait for the futures price to fall to an appropriate level before buying long - term contracts [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: USDA reduced the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres in August, and the harvested area by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The US cotton output was reduced by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to the previous month, which has a moderately positive impact. However, China's cotton output was increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and there is still room for further increase. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the cotton - picking work is ready [6]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish. In the off - season, textile mills are not very willing to stock up. The operating rate has recovered slightly, with this week's operating rate at 66% compared to 65.9% last week. The weekly stocking willingness of weaving mills has slightly increased, with this week's operating rate at 37.4% compared to 37.2% last week. The profit loss of spinning mills has decreased, with this week's profit at - 1,352 yuan/ton compared to - 1,407 yuan/ton last week [6]. - **Inventory**: BCO announced that the national cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons compared to the end of June and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory this week was 1.547 million tons, compared to 1.7126 million tons last week. The raw material inventory of textile mills this week was 27.5 (unit not specified), the same as last week. The yarn inventory of textile mills this week was 310,000 tons, compared to 313,000 tons last week [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 5,829, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 233,100 tons, compared to 260,500 tons on August 29 [6]. - **Basis**: As of September 5, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 14,000 yuan/ton. As of September 4, the arrival price of US cotton M1 - 1/8 was reduced to 13,271 yuan/ton. The price of domestic 3128B lint cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a quoted price of 15,370 yuan/ton. The domestic - foreign cotton price difference narrowed to 2,099 yuan/ton. The overall average cost of ginning factories this year, converted to the standard weight, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton. In the new year, with some production capacity of ginning factories in northern Xinjiang exiting and the overall poor demand outlook, the expected opening price will not be high. According to market research feedback in August, the planting cost in a certain area in southern Xinjiang is lower than last year, and it is estimated that the opening price of cotton in southern Xinjiang will be below 6 yuan/kg, and about 6.3 yuan/kg in northern Xinjiang [6]. - **Macro**: The main belief in the market is still anti - involution. With the recent weak economic data in China, the market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The hard data in the US has significantly weakened, and the non - farm payrolls data was disappointing again. The US Department of Labor data showed that the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000 and the previous value of 73,000. At the same time, the non - farm payrolls data for June and July was revised down by a total of 21,000. The unemployment rate rose to the highest level since 2021. After the revision in this report, the average monthly increase in non - farm payrolls in the past three months was only 29,000. In September, a large amount of cotton will be on the market, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Ginning enterprises are worried about price drops in the later period, and the mentality of industry players at the initial stage of harvesting is generally cautious. The improvement in the macro - environment is not expected to drive the enthusiasm for purchasing [6]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the beginning inventory increased by 280,000 tons year - on - year; the output decreased by 548,000 tons year - on - year; the import increased by 550,000 tons year - on - year; the total supply increased by 282,000 tons year - on - year; the export increased by 520,000 tons year - on - year; the consumption increased by 8,000 tons year - on - year; the total consumption increased by 528,000 tons year - on - year; the ending inventory decreased by 246,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory - to - use ratio decreased by 0.98 percentage points year - on - year [10]. - **Production of Major Global Producing Countries**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton output decreased by 275,000 tons year - on - year. The output of China decreased by 1.56% year - on - year, the US decreased by 8.32% year - on - year, India decreased by 2.07% year - on - year, Pakistan remained unchanged, Australia decreased by 26.74% year - on - year, and Brazil increased by 7.38% year - on - year [11]. - **Demand Changes in Major Global Producing Countries**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton consumption increased by 0.02% year - on - year. The consumption of China decreased by 1.32% year - on - year, India decreased by 1.96% year - on - year, Pakistan increased by 0.94% year - on - year, Bangladesh decreased by 1.18% year - on - year, and Turkey and Vietnam remained unchanged [12]. - **US Cotton Weather and Inventory**: The weather is unlikely to disrupt US cotton. The overall US inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is transitioning from three - year continuous destocking to appropriate active restocking. The import - grabbing behavior of clothing wholesalers and retailers has pushed up the inventory. However, due to the "Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" reached between China and the US in May, the temporary easing of tariffs and two import - grabbing behaviors in the first half of the year have led to the retailer inventory rising to a high point again, which has weakened the continuous restocking behavior to some extent [13][17]. - **Domestic New - Year Planting and Inventory**: The planting area in the new year has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and textile mills are looking forward to import quotas. The destocking speed of China's cotton commercial inventory is relatively fast. As of the end of July, the national cotton social inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons compared to the end of June and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory this week was 1.547 million tons [21][42].

铜周报 20250907 非农大幅低于预期，宏观降温， 铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 社库累库，盘面冲高、采购受抑，铜现货升水走弱 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比缩窄 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比涨0.63美元/吨至-40.85美元/吨，仍低 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 8 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周九港铜精矿库存环比减2.23万吨至68.83万吨 精废价差周环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 9月检修影响增加，加之阳极板供应紧张，9月国内电解铜产量预计环比降幅超4% 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期 ...

宏观周度观察 20250907 非农爆冷降息已定，黄金创纪录高位 | 国联期货研究所 | | | 目 录 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可[2011]1773 号 | | | | | | 1. | 本周宏观观察 | | | 王娜 | 2. | 国内重点事件及重要经济数据 | | | 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 | 3. | 海外重点事件及重要经济数据 | | | | 4. | 下周重点数据/事件 | | 相关研究报告： 具体来看，我们认为有几点值得关注和思考： | 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： | | --- | | 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 | | 稳驭舟 | | 2025 年二季度宏观展望：多 | | 空拉锯，全球高波动弱增长 | | 格局深化 | | 2025 年宏观经济展望：畅通 | | 经济循环，走出低通胀 | | 2024 年中期宏观经济展望： | | 虚云散尽见真章，厚积薄发 | | 待春雷 | | 2024 年宏观经济展望：行稳 | | 方致远，温和渐进修复 | | 宏观专题：透过金融数据探 | | 寻资金运转逻辑与效 ...

镍不锈钢周报 缺乏单边驱动，关注宏观指引 20250831 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 李志超 从业资格证号：F3058314 投资咨询证号：Z0016270 | | | 1 | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 核心策略要点 | 01 | 影响因素及分析 | 03 | | 03 | | 04 | | | 资讯数据 | 04 | 数据图表 | 07 | 2 02 影响因素分析 | 3 | | --- | 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 4 4 03 资讯和数据 03 资讯数据 5 03 资讯和数据 6 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 期镍运行 7 8 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 沪不锈钢运行 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 基差、价差 9 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 7 10 镍现货运行 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 11 镍现货运行 镍端库存 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 13 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 14 不锈钢库存 纯镍、镍铁产量和进出口 数据来源：钢联、i ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. USDA's August report shows a reduction in the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres and a 15% cut in the harvest area to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rose from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. The US cotton output decreased by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, while China's cotton output increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons. The global cotton output decreased by 391,000 tons month - on - month. The cotton market was volatile this week. Spinning mills' willingness to stock up remained weak during the off - season, and the pressure of finished product inventory eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness increased slightly, and inventory pressure also decreased [6]. - The demand factor has a downward impact on cotton prices. Spinning profit expanded slightly, and the loss in the inland area decreased [6]. - The inventory factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. BCO announced that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The de - stocking speed continued to accelerate, reaching the fastest rate of the year. The spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory maintained a downward trend. The operation rate of inland yarn mills remained weak. In the industrial chain inventory, the finished products still had high inventory, while the raw material inventory decreased [6]. - The warehouse receipt factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. As of August 29, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 6,514, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 260,500 tons, compared with 290,400 tons on August 22 [6]. - The basis factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remained firm, and the spot transaction price fluctuated with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.9% impurity in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract was between 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - The cost factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The overall average cost of ginning factories this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, with the withdrawal of some ginning factory capacities in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - The macro factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The market believes that China will continue to avoid excessive competition. With the recent weak economic data in China, the market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The economic data in July were generally lower than expected, and the three major indicators declined simultaneously, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable production, lower - than - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which is consistent with the seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI in July and the negative growth of new credit in July, indicating insufficient domestic effective demand. The US entering the interest - rate cut channel was supported after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. Powell said that the inflation risk increased in the short term, but the impact of tariffs on prices might be one - time, and there was a downward risk in the employment market. The policy interest rate is in the restrictive range, and the Fed may adjust its policy according to the changing risk balance. After the speech, the market again bet on an interest - rate cut in September, and the probability of a rate cut increased from less than 80% to around 90% [6]. - The trading strategy is that there may still be a decline in the single - side market. In the medium - term, it is advisable to build long positions at low prices. In early September, if the US non - farm and inflation data are not conducive to the US Fed's interest - rate cut channel, it will be difficult for the overall commodities, including cotton, to rise significantly under the weak reality. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, the selling hedging pressure in the market will lead to a callback. The upward space in January is limited. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see until the market price drops before buying the far - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis, cost, and macro factors of cotton, and provides corresponding trading strategies [6] 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply and demand situation has changed. The initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory have different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [11]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The cotton production of main producing countries such as China, the US, India, Pakistan, Australia, and Brazil has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton production decreased by 2.75% year - on - year [12]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The cotton consumption of main consuming countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton consumption increased by 0.02% year - on - year [13]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The US cotton weather has little impact on production. The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is changing from continuous de - stocking in the past three years to appropriate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement in May and the two rounds of import - rushing in the first half of the year, the retailer inventory has risen to a high level again, weakening the continuous restocking behavior to some extent [18][19] - **Domestic New - Year Cotton Situation**: The domestic new - year cotton planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The de - stocking speed of China's cotton commercial inventory is fast. The industrial inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, the operation rate of inland yarn mills is still weak, the finished products in the industrial chain inventory remain highly stocked, and the raw material inventory is decreasing [23][25][40]

白糖周报 下跌未完 空单持有 GUOLIAN F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 3 白糖核心要点及策略 | 因素 | 价格 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年7月份我国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加31.82万吨。2025年1-7月份我国进口食糖177.78万吨，同比增 向下 | | | 加5.39万吨，增幅3.12%。不过加工糖和国产糖错峰供应，一定程度上缓解了集中上市带来的冲击，使得市场供需节奏更加平稳，持续关 | | | 注进口糖到港情况。2025年7月我国进口糖浆和白砂糖预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计15.97万吨，同比减少6.86万吨。其中， | | | 进口糖浆、白砂糖预混粉(税则号列170290)数量为4.54万吨，同比下降18.28万吨；我国进口2106.90.6项下糖浆、白砂糖预混粉共11.43 | | | 万吨，同比增长11.42万吨，为历史同期最高。 | | 需求 | 向下 国内虽处消费旺季，但需求释放力度不及预期，加之加工糖集中供应，供给压力渐显。 | | 库存 | 中性 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong, but no specific overall industry investment rating is provided [1] Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak season and positive domestic and international macro - economic trends, the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Catalog Price Data - This week, the spot premium first declined and then increased, and it is expected to remain firm next week [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation was limited this week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.33 per ton week - on - week to - $41.48 per ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at nine ports increased by 148,800 tons week - on - week to 710,600 tons [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [20] - Due to increased maintenance in September and a shortage of anode plate supply, the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline by more than 4% month - on - month [22] - In July, the net import of refined copper in China was 178,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [24] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week [26] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week, with weak orders and pick - ups, and it is expected to rebound next week [29] - From August 1st to 24th, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [32] - Production is based on demand, and the component output in August changed little month - on - month [33] - The planned production volume of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual volume of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - The manufacturing PMI in August increased by 0.1 points month - on - month, and the business climate improved [40] - The year - on - year increase of the US core PCE price index in July reached 2.9%, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact is still controllable [41] - The annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% [44]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250817: Limited Supply - Demand Contradiction, Upward Macro, and Bullish Oscillation in the Market [1] Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction of copper is limited, the macro - economic situation is upward, and the copper futures market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [1] Key Points by Section Price Data - The spot supply of copper is tight, the purchasing sentiment has increased, and the spot premium has risen [10] - The LME copper 0 - 3M spread has continued to widen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index has increased by $0.38 per ton week - on - week to - $37.68 per ton, showing a recovery but still remaining low [15] - The copper concentrate inventory at nine ports has decreased by 62,000 tons week - on - week to 557,600 tons [17] - The spread between refined copper and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - Only one domestic smelter is under maintenance in August, but the number of smelters with production cuts has increased, and the electrolytic copper output is expected to decline slightly month - on - month [20] - The copper import window has opened [21] - The week - on - week change in the electrolytic copper spot inventory is limited, while the bonded - area inventory has continued to increase [23] - The LME copper inventory has hardly changed, and the COMEX copper inventory has continued to accumulate [25] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods has increased, and downstream purchases have increased [27] - From August 1st to 10th, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China have increased by 6% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [28] - The overall production volume of photovoltaic modules in August has changed little month - on - month [31] - The total production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August has decreased by 4.9% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year, with the air - conditioner production volume decreasing by 2.8% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan [36] - The US CPI in July has increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected; the PPI has increased by 0.9% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year [39] - Two new candidates for the Fed Chair support significant interest - rate cuts [40]

Report Title - "Sugar Weekly Report" [1] Report Core View - The 01 contract of sugar has rebounded as expected and is expected to have further upward space. The current price of the 01 contract has a large discount, and the futures price will first repair part of the discount upwards. The sugar fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, and there is still further upward momentum [10]. Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: China's sugar imports in June 2025 reached 430,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.71% and a year - on - year increase of 1434.86%. The cumulative imports from January to June were 1.04 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.7%. The time of import volume arrival is delayed, and the subsequent pressure is still high, but the staggered supply of processed sugar and domestic sugar eases the impact [10]. - **Demand**: The price of processed sugar has gradually stabilized, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up, accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas, and the overall spot trading is fair [10]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. The shipping volume from Brazil in July is low, and the arrival after August is expected to be lower than expected, so the pressure on processed sugar is not large [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 15, the registered sugar warehouse receipts were 17,104, with 0 valid forecasts, a total of 17,104, compared with 18,545 last week [10]. - **Basis**: The basis is upward. The spot prices in various regions are stable, and the recent linkage between futures and spot prices has strengthened, driving the market trading atmosphere to warm up and accelerating the inventory removal process in production areas [10]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil is about 5,578 yuan/ton, with a slight increase, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat [10]. - **Macro**: Domestically, the economy shows a weak recovery pattern, and there are expectations of more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. Overseas, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in 2025, with the first cut likely in September [10]. 02 Sugar Market News This Week - **Brazil**: It is estimated that the sugarcane planting area in 2025 will be 9.241643 million hectares, a 0.2% increase from the previous month's estimate and a 0.8% increase from the previous year. The sugarcane production is estimated to be 695.085205 million tons, a 0.3% increase from the previous month's estimate but a 1.6% decrease from the previous year. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the first half of July, the cumulative sugar production decreased by 9.22% year - on - year [15]. - **India**: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season will increase by 18% to about 34.9 million tons, and the total planting area is estimated to be about 5.724 million hectares, slightly higher than that in the 2024/25 season [16]. 03 Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: In the 2024 - 2025 sugar - making season, the national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons and a growth rate of 12.03% [20]. - **Domestic Sales**: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50,520 tons and a growth rate of 7.34%. The cumulative sales rate was 74.11%, a slowdown of 2.54 percentage points year - on - year. The cumulative sales of sugar reached 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons and a growth rate of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, an acceleration of 6.52 percentage points year - on - year [24][27]. - **Domestic Substitute Imports**: In June 2025, the total imports of domestic substitute syrups and premixes were 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total imports were 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons [34]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost decreased slightly this week [38]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: The number of warehouse receipts has declined from a high level. As of August 15, the total number of registered warehouse receipts was 17,104 [42].