Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass valuation in 2025 faces two major pressures: supply surplus and inventory accumulation affecting spot prices, and the financial and profit situation of the real - estate industry limiting the upstream's share. In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations, and the valuation boost from the demand side is limited. Cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair power from the supply side [3][56][68]. - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern remains in Q4, with high industry inventory and operating pressure. New capacity addition and slow capacity clearance will continue to put pressure on the spot price. The cost of synthetic soda ash production is expected to decline in October. The SA01 contract should pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [5][7][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 1.1 Glass 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, ignition advanced, cold - repair slowed, and daily melting increased. A total of 2 float glass production lines were cold - repaired, and 4 were ignited. By the end of September, the daily melting of glass was 161,300 tons per day, an increase of 3,500 tons per day compared to the end of Q2. The glass production cost decreased slightly, and the industry profit improved slightly, but natural - gas production lines were still in the red [17][18]. - Demand: In Q3, there was support from rigid demand in deep - processing, and the demand for replenishing inventory from the mid - and downstream was released. As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream were 10.5 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The inventory of mid - and downstream enterprises increased [25]. - Inventory: In Q3, the glass inventory shifted to the mid - and downstream of the industrial chain. By September 26, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 9.861 million weight boxes compared to the end of June, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56% [46]. 1.2 Glass 2025 Q4 Outlook - Demand: The overall demand trend is downward. In Q4, the rigid demand is expected to be strong first and then weak. The high inventory of the mid - stream may squeeze the upstream production and sales. The demand from the automotive industry is expected to maintain a high year - on - year increase, while the home - appliance industry's order volume is expected to decline year - on - year [56][57]. - Supply: There is still room for ignition and cold - repair of production lines in Q4. Policies such as clean - energy transformation and "anti - involution" may bring downward risks to supply [61]. - Industry Structural Adjustment: Policies to promote the structural optimization and green transformation of the glass industry are expected to be implemented repeatedly in Q4. The discussion on the Shahe clean - energy transformation project will also continue, but the progress of fuel switching in glass factories may be slower than expected [67]. 1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Valuation: The cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally. The valuation boost from the demand side is limited, and attention should be paid to the supply - side factors for valuation repair [68]. - Strategy: In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations. There may be a situation where production and sales weaken and the spot price cools down. For the FG01 contract, pay attention to the low - buying opportunity after the premium is reversed and based on the cost [69]. Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, the decline in the operating rate due to maintenance was limited. The supply pressure remained high due to the high - capacity base and new capacity put into production in Q2. By September 26, the soda - ash output in September was about 2.8204 million tons, with a heavy - soda output of 156,260 tons and a light - soda output of 125,780 tons. The average heavy - soda ratio in September was 55.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of soda - ash plants in September was about 87.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [87]. - Cost Valuation: In Q3, the increase in coal prices led to an increase in the cost center of synthetic soda - ash production. The soda - ash industry still faced great loss pressure [87]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda from the glass industry improved in Q3. The daily consumption of heavy soda by float and photovoltaic glass was about 49,800 tons by September 29, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons per day and a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons per day. The demand for light soda from downstream industries was supported. In September, the weekly average apparent demand for light soda was 342,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.096 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 221,000 tons [90]. - Import and Export: In August, China's net export of soda ash remained at a historically high level. In August 2025, China exported 215,400 tons of soda ash, with an average export price of 170.64 US dollars per ton, equivalent to 1,222 RMB per ton, and imported 289.9 tons [94]. - Inventory: In Q3, the upstream inventory of soda ash fluctuated at a high level and decreased in September with the mid - and downstream replenishing inventory. By September 26, the inventory of soda - ash plants was 1.6515 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 216,000 tons [99]. 2.2 Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Outlook - Supply: The second - phase project of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production within the year, increasing the supply pressure. After the maintenance season, the planned production - capacity loss will decrease, and the operating rate is expected to rise, further increasing the supply pressure. The industry will continue to clear excess capacity, but the clearing process is slow [102]. - Demand: The demand for light soda is supported, with strong performance in traditional and emerging industries. The supply of float glass in Q4 is expected to be stable, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [105][106]. 2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Supply - Demand Outlook: In Q4, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance and new capacity addition. The demand is expected to be stable, with support for light soda and stable daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass [109]. - Valuation: The current spot price can promote capacity clearance, but the process is slow. With new capacity expected to be put into production, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to be under pressure. The cost of synthetic soda - ash production is expected to decline in October [7][109]. - Strategy: In the surplus pattern, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to find the bottom. The implementation of the second - phase project of Yuanxing may further push down the soda - ash price. For the SA01 contract, pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the A-share market broke through the shock pattern and continued to rise. The external environment remains complex in Q4. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable, putting pressure on the current account. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and the capital account is expected to continue to recover. Domestically, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti-involution" policy on deflation still requires demand-side support, and the recovery of corporate profits is not yet stable. Policy and monetary effects will take time to be transmitted to the PPI, which is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The index's range-bound pattern may continue, and the previous long IF and short IM hedging portfolio is recommended to be held. Allocation investors need to control their stock index positions, and long-term investors should focus on the progress of profit repair and policy effects [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Indexes Break Through the Shock Pattern - **Market Review**: In Q1, the A-share market continued the shock pattern since Q4 2024. After being affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" remarks in April, the market recovered with the implementation of domestic policies and the easing of Sino-US trade frictions. In Q3, multiple positive factors supported the market, including the "anti-involution" policy, the continuation of the "rush to export" trend, the appreciation of the RMB, and the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread, providing sufficient liquidity for the stock index market [9]. - **Industry Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, industries showed significant differentiation. Precious metals and related non-ferrous metals led the gains due to Trump's tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. As of September 26, communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics had the highest increases, while coal, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest declines [11]. - **Stock Index Basis**: The expansion of neutral strategies and the increase in the index dividend rate led to a larger discount in stock index futures. The injection of rescue funds and the active trading sentiment increased the trading volume of the A-share market, and the small and medium-cap style was dominant. The expansion of neutral strategies increased the hedging demand for stock index futures, and the high dividend rate of listed companies also contributed to the larger discount [13][17]. 2. Market Valuation: Focus on Earnings-Driven Valuation Digestion - **CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes**: The valuation levels of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have been significantly repaired. As of September 26, their price-to-book ratios were at historically low levels in the past 10 years [22]. - **SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes**: There is a divergence in the valuations of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. Their price-to-earnings ratios are generally in the high historical range, while the price-to-book ratios are relatively low. This difference is due to the significant valuation recovery since September last year, but the improvement in market profitability still takes time [22]. - **Index Crowding**: There is a potential for short-term style rebalancing. The crowding degree of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has narrowed, and the market's enthusiasm for the CSI 500 index remains high. The relative valuation of the CSI 1000 index has further recovered. The crowding degree difference between the CSI 1000 and CSI 300 indexes has reached a high level in the past two years, increasing the potential for mean reversion [26][29][32]. - **Stock-Bond Cost-Effectiveness**: The stock market does not have an obvious relative advantage. After the continuous rise since September last year, the stock market is at a low level in terms of the stock-bond cost-effectiveness indicator. Although the domestic interest rate cut window is opening, the relative valuation of the stock market compared to the bond market is still at a relatively high level [35]. - **Valuation Summary**: After the continuous repair of the A-share market valuation this year, the relative valuation advantage of the stock index market over bonds has weakened, and the current stock-bond cost-effectiveness is still at a low level. There is a differentiation pattern within the market, and the valuation repair is faster than the profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the subsequent profit repair to drive the convergence of indicators. The CSI 1000 index may experience a style rebalancing [37]. 3. The Effect of Transforming Domestic Expectations into Reality is Evident - **Improvement in Financial Transmission Efficiency and the Need for Further Policy Release**: In August 2025, the "gap" between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed, indicating an improvement in the capital activity and efficiency of enterprises. However, the structure of social financing shows that the endogenous economic momentum is still insufficient, and policies need to be continuously strengthened in Q4. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down for the first time this year, mainly due to the high base last year, the decrease in government bond financing, and the weak demand for entity financing [38]. - **The "Anti-Involution" Policy Improves Deflation Expectations, but Profit Recovery Still Depends on Demand-Side Support**: The "anti-involution" policy proposed in early July is an important driving force for the stock market, but the policy's effectiveness takes time. The net profit of the four major index component stocks and the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size are still at the bottoming stage. The price level is still weak, and the recovery of demand is insufficient. The scissors gap between the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index squeezes corporate profit margins. The PPI is expected to turn positive around Q2 2026 [41][46]. 4. Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer Appear, and the Pressure on the Capital Account May Continue to Ease - **Initial Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer**: After the loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered in May, commercial banks lowered deposit rates, and some banks' one-year fixed deposit rates fell below 1%. The increase in listed companies' dividends and the entry of rescue funds are changing the asset allocation behavior of residents. Funds are flowing from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, and the A-share market is expected to receive sufficient allocation funds [50][53]. - **The Change in the Dominant Factor of the US Dollar and the Easing of Pressure on the Capital and Financial Account**: The US dollar's traditional safe-haven asset status is fading, and its price is now more influenced by interest rates. The continuous expansion of the US debt and geopolitical conflicts have eroded the US dollar's credit foundation, leading to a weakening trend. The weakening of the US dollar supports the RMB, and the capital and financial account is expected to recover [55][57]. - **The Unsustainable "Rush to Export" Trend and the Pressure on the Current Account**: During the Sino-US trade negotiations, the "rush to export" trend was obvious, supporting economic growth in the first three quarters. However, due to the high tariffs on Chinese exports and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in the US, the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, and the current account will face significant pressure in Q4 [59][64]. 5. Summary - The US's tariff measures against China have limited room for adjustment, and the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, putting more pressure on China's current account in Q4. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and cross-border capital flows are expected to continue to recover. Domestically, although the financial system's transmission efficiency has improved and the "anti-involution" policy may marginally improve deflation in Q4, the price increase still depends on demand-side support, and the deflation risk has not been completely eliminated. After the valuation repair of the A-share market, the relative attractiveness of equity assets has weakened. The profit recovery is the key to whether the market's overall center can rise. The PPI is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The style may rebalance, and the previous hedging portfolio is recommended to be held, while investors should control their positions and focus on profit recovery [65][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Global crude oil supply is expected to be abundant, with the surplus continuously expanding. In the fourth quarter, global crude oil demand will first decline and then rebound. Given the overall loose supply, the short - term decline in demand may have a more significant negative impact on crude oil prices. Even if demand rises in December, global crude oil supply will still be in a surplus state [9]. - In the polyester industry chain, both the cost side and industrial demand will face downward pressure in the fourth quarter, but supply is also expected to decline accordingly, resulting in a pattern of weak supply and demand. The decline in supply may be more obvious than that in demand. The spot production profits of various polyester industry chain products are generally low. Therefore, during the traditional off - season of demand, the price performance of the polyester industry chain may not be poor, and it is expected to show a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rebounded and then declined, with a slight cumulative decrease and a weak trend. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil. In July, prices generally rebounded, and from August to September, they declined. In August - September, the demand of the polyester industry increased slightly, and the operating rates of PX and PTA rose in September, showing a pattern of double - growth in supply and demand. Coupled with the weak operation of the cost side, prices continued to fall in the first half of September. In late September, due to the rebound of international oil prices, the prices of related products in the polyester industry chain generally rebounded from low levels, while the price of ethylene glycol was weak [15]. - **PX**: The operating rate was low in July but showed a continuous upward trend from August to September, reaching the highest level this year in mid - September. In late August, the planned maintenance of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million tons/year PX unit was postponed, and other maintenance units restarted, causing the operating rate to rise instead of fall. In August, PX imports increased month - on - month, reaching the highest single - month level this year. From June to August, new PTA units were put into operation, but the new PTA units had limited short - term impact on boosting PX consumption. In September, the PTA operating rate increased slightly, but the operating level was lower than the same period last year, and the change in PX demand was not obvious [16]. - **PTA**: The operating rate was generally stable in July, significantly declined in August due to many unit overhauls, and increased slightly in September. The spot processing fee of PTA was continuously low in the third quarter, and the enthusiasm of factories for production was not high. In September, multiple overhauled PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased month - on - month compared with August. In July, PTA supply was stable, but demand weakened due to the continuous decline of the polyester operating rate, and social inventory increased. In August, due to the decline of the PTA operating rate, although the polyester operating rate was at a low level, PTA social inventory decreased slightly. In September, with the increase of both the PTA operating rate and the polyester operating rate, the overall situation was a double - growth pattern of supply and demand, and the change in PTA social inventory was not significant [20][21]. - **MEG**: The comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol increased steadily in the third quarter. In mid - August, the operating rate decreased significantly but quickly recovered. The domestic ethylene glycol output was generally stable at a high level in the third quarter. The consumption of ethylene glycol was relatively stable. The port inventory of ethylene glycol in Jiangsu and Zhejiang only increased slightly in early August. At the beginning of September, the inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell below 400,000 tons, reaching a new low this year and lower than the same period in previous years. The price of ethylene glycol rose continuously in July, fluctuated narrowly in August, and declined continuously in September [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate of short fiber was relatively stable in the third quarter, and the monthly output from July to August was basically the same. The operating rate of pure polyester yarn decreased less than last year in the third quarter, but the increase during the recovery stage was also weak, and the current operating level was lower than the same period last year. The short - fiber market showed a pattern of weak supply and demand in the first eight months, with weaker demand being more obvious. The spot processing fee of short fiber fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, generally rising in July, falling in August, and rising again in September [25]. - **Bottle Chip**: The operating rate of polyester bottle chips began to decline in late May, remained at a low level from early July to the end of August, and then increased slightly but was still relatively low. From a seasonal perspective, the domestic demand for bottle chips was generally stable from July to August, and bottle - chip exports decreased month - on - month in August, reaching the lowest single - month level since March. The spot processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly continuously in July and then fluctuated narrowly at a low level. The spot price of bottle chips generally oscillated downward in the third quarter, and the closing price of the main contract fluctuated. The basis of bottle chips decreased continuously from July to August and increased slightly in September, with the futures and spot prices at par [30]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production, Intensifying the Expectation of Supply Surplus - **EIA Keeps Raising Crude Oil Supply Forecasts, and the Expectation of Supply Growth Continues**: In the third quarter, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell. In July, supported by the expectation of the peak demand season, international crude oil prices were strong. However, due to OPEC+'s continuous decisions to increase crude oil production at each monthly meeting, the global crude oil supply surplus is expected to intensify. Since April, OPEC+ has gradually lifted the voluntary production - cut plan and made monthly decisions to increase crude oil production. From July to September, OPEC meetings continued the production - increase policy. Affected by OPEC+'s continuous production increase, EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for three consecutive months from June to September, with the largest increase in the August EIA report [32]. - **Seasonal Fluctuation of Demand, with Overall Loose Supply**: The supply and demand of international crude oil are relatively loose, but from the statistical data of the US crude oil, the supply surplus is not obvious. The number of US oil and gas rigs is still hovering at the bottom. As of September 26, 2025, the number of US oil and gas rigs was 549, including 424 crude oil rigs, which rebounded from a low level but was still low. The latest weekly US crude oil production data showed that as of the week of September 19, US crude oil production was 13.501 million barrels per day, which generally increased slightly from August to September and was at a relatively high level, but significant growth was difficult. The consumption of crude oil has two peak seasons due to the US summer travel peak and winter heating demand. The seasonal changes in global crude oil demand are basically synchronized with those in the US. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of US refineries first increased and then decreased, and was higher than the same period last year for most of the time. After mid - September, the refinery operating rate showed a downward trend, and October is usually a period when the refinery operating rate performs poorly. The EIA commercial crude oil inventory fluctuated repeatedly in the third quarter, with no obvious trend, and is currently near the annual low. It is expected to continue to rise in October. The strategic reserve inventory has been gradually increasing slightly since November 2023. The US gasoline inventory decreased rapidly from July to August, generally higher than the same period last year, and the decline rate slowed down in September. With the continuous decline of the capacity utilization rate of US refineries, the US gasoline inventory will resume the continuous decline trend in October [38][40][41]. 3. Supply of Mid - upstream Products in the Industry Chain is Stable, and Low Profits Still Affect the Supply Side - **PX and PTA Operating Rates Fluctuate Repeatedly, and PTA New Units are Gradually Put into Production**: As of now, there are no new PX production units this year. From June to August, two new PTA units were put into production, and in May, a new ethylene glycol unit was put into production. There are still plans to put new PTA and ethylene glycol units into production by the end of the year. The PX operating rate was relatively low in July due to unit overhauls, and increased continuously from August to September. In the fourth quarter, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2 million - ton and Sinochem Quanzhou's 800,000 - ton PX units are planned for maintenance. The PTA operating rate increased slightly in July and then was generally stable, but there were still many overhauls in August. In September, some PTA units restarted, and the operating rate increased slightly. In the fourth quarter, there are plans to overhaul multiple PTA units. From January to August 2025, China's PX production decreased year - on - year, imports increased, and the supply decreased slightly year - on - year. PX consumption increased year - on - year. PTA exports decreased year - on - year, and the spot processing fee was poor in the third quarter [49][50][53]. - **Ethylene Glycol Operating Rate Increases Steadily, and the Operating Condition of Coal - based Ethylene Glycol is Better than Expected**: In May 2025, the first - phase 600,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol unit of Sichuan Zhengdakai was successfully commissioned, and the ethylene glycol capacity increased slightly. According to the new unit commissioning plan, Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 1 million - ton/year ethylene glycol unit may be put into production in October. The coal - based ethylene glycol operating rate increased steadily in the third quarter, with only a short - term decline in mid - August. From January to August 2025, China's ethylene glycol production and imports increased, and the supply increased significantly year - on - year. The profit of oil - based ethylene glycol was better than last year, showing a narrow - range fluctuation, and the theoretical calculation of oil - based ethylene glycol production was still in a loss state. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was generally good but declined significantly in the third quarter [62][64][67]. 4. The Demand of the Industry Chain in the Fourth Quarter is High at First and then Low, with Overall Insipid Demand - **The Demand for Textile Raw Materials in the Traditional Peak Season is Weak, and the Demand for Bottle Chips will Continue to Weaken**: Since 2025, new units of filament, bottle chips, and film have been put into production. The polyester capacity has increased slightly this year, with bottle - chip capacity accounting for the majority. In the third quarter, the demand for textile raw materials was in the stage of turning from off - season to peak season, showing the characteristics of an off - season that is not off and a peak season that is not peak. From January to August 2025, China's polyester production increased year - on - year, mainly driven by bottle - chip production. The increase in polyester production drove up the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [70][71][76]. - **PTA and Ethylene Glycol May Accumulate Inventory, and the Supply Side will Determine Inventory Changes**: The PTA social inventory reached a phased high in late February this year and then gradually declined from March to early July. In the third quarter, the overall change was not significant. In September, it changed from continuous inventory reduction in August to slight inventory accumulation. The ethylene glycol port inventory in the third quarter generally showed a downward - oscillating trend. In October - November, the demand for polyester raw materials is expected to weaken, and ethylene glycol may accumulate inventory [81][82]. - **Polyester Profits are Weak, and the Profit Situation is Still under Pressure in the Demand Downturn Stage**: The processing fees of various polyester products are affected by capacity growth, supply - demand contradictions, and seasonal demand changes. In the third quarter, the profit situation of major polyester products was not ideal. In the fourth quarter, the demand of the industry chain will face the pressure of weakening again, and it is difficult for the production profits of filament and other products to continue to improve [83][85]. - **The Inventory Pressure of Filament is Not High, and There is a Downward Pressure on Bottle - Chip Exports**: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and short fiber increased year - on - year, with bottle chips and short fiber having higher export growth rates. The export volume of bottle chips increased the most in absolute terms. However, in the fourth quarter, the domestic demand for bottle chips is in the traditional off - season, and exports are expected to decline month - on - month, and the trend of bottle - chip processing fees is still not optimistic. The filament inventory fluctuated greatly this year, and there is still inventory accumulation pressure in October - November. The short - fiber inventory has generally shown a downward trend since mid - February, and the inventory accumulation pressure in the fourth quarter is not large [91][93][97]. - **The Seasonal Change in Demand Weakens, and the Off - Season May Not Be Off**: Filament and short fiber in polyester products are greatly affected by the off - peak seasons of textile raw material demand. From August to September, the operating rates of filament and short fiber did not increase significantly, showing the characteristics of a peak season that is not peak. In October, demand will turn weak, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms can reflect the demand changes of short fiber and filament. The operating rate of looms increased to near the highest level this year as of September 26, but it will decline again in late October. The production of yarn and grey cloth is still weak this year, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in October - November [102][104][107]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel will Gradually Improve, but Exports are under Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Enters the Peak Season, but the Overall Performance is Not Ideal**: In 2025, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased, but the year - on - year growth rate gradually declined from June to August, and the recovery of domestic consumption was unstable. In August 2025, the domestic retail sales of textile and apparel increased year - on - year, but the growth rate was lower than that of the overall retail market from June to July. Domestic textile and apparel consumption shows obvious seasonal fluctuations, and the peak season is mainly in the second half of the year. It is necessary to pay attention to the domestic textile and apparel consumption in the fourth quarter [108][113]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports are under Downward Pressure, and the Decline in Apparel Exports is More Obvious**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export amount increased year - on - year. However, the US tariff policy adjustment is still increasing, and the Sino - US trade environment is difficult to improve substantially. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased slightly year - on - year, with textile exports increasing and apparel exports decreasing. In July - August, China's apparel exports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, and the peak export volume this year occurred in June instead of August as in previous years [114][115][117]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In the third quarter, OPEC+ decided to increase crude oil production at monthly meetings, and EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with the supply surplus scale expanding. International crude oil prices oscillated downward during the peak consumption season in the third quarter, with a small cumulative decline. The prices of the polyester industry chain generally followed crude oil, and the overall performance was weaker than that of crude oil. The profits of the industry chain were still not ideal, with the profits of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declining significantly in the third quarter, and the profits of filament, short fiber, and bottle chips rebounding from a low level but still remaining low [118]. - **Outlook**: In the fourth quarter, the international crude oil market will face a transformation where demand first drops rapidly and then rebounds. Under the expectation of supply surplus, the market may be more sensitive to the decline in demand. If OPEC+ continues the policy of continuous production increase, the international crude oil supply surplus situation will further intensify. The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in the fourth quarter, but the effect of interest - rate cuts on boosting the expectation of crude oil demand is limited. In the polyester industry chain, the demand will be generally weak in the fourth quarter, especially in October when it enters the off - season of textile raw material demand, and there may be a situation where the off - season is not off. Due to the low profits across the entire industry chain, supply is also expected to decline when demand falls. In October, both crude oil and the polyester industry chain demand are expected to weaken, and the prices of industry - chain products will face downward pressure, but it is expected that the supply side will also make adjustments, entering a state of double - reduction in supply and demand. In December, as crude oil demand gradually recovers, the downward pressure on oil prices will ease, and the prices of the polyester industry chain are expected to rebound, showing a trend of being low at first and then high in the fourth quarter. In terms of industry - chain profits, the profits of mid - upstream products PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol declined in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, industry - chain profits are expected to shift from downstream to mid - upstream products [119][120].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250928: Supply Concerns Dominate the Market, Shanghai Copper Expected to Fluctuate Strongly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns dominate the market, and Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Grasberg copper mine shutdown drives up the market, and the copper spot premium/discount is under pressure to weaken [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation continued to narrow week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.44/ton week - on - week to - $40.36/ton, still low [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 86,500 tons week - on - week to 637,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to continue to decline month - on - month [23] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [26] - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, but the copper price soared, demand was suppressed, and new orders grew slowly [31] - From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 10% year - on - year [34] - The production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to continue to decline slightly [35] - The production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in a detailed manner [41] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [43] - The divergence on the Fed's interest rate cut path has intensified [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The study explores the effectiveness of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index in predicting the short - term trends of domestic stock indices. The quantitative timing strategy based on the previous night's performance of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index can significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark indices, with a smoother net - value curve, enhancing returns and reducing the maximum historical drawdown, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [4][37]. - This research expands investors' strategy toolkits and helps futures and options intraday traders optimize trading decisions and improve trading win - rates [4][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index Introduction - It is a stock index compiled by the NASDAQ to track the stock price performance of Chinese companies listed in the US, regarded as a "barometer" of Chinese new - economy enterprises in US stocks. As of September 23, 2025, it has 73 constituent stocks, including Alibaba and Baidu, covering new - economy sectors such as the Internet, new energy, and consumer services. In terms of the number of constituent stocks, the optional consumer and information technology sectors have relatively large shares [9]. 2. Correlation Analysis between NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and Domestic Stock Indices - There is a significant positive correlation (correlation coefficients above 0.65) between the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and the Shanghai 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in the past three years, indicating that the previous night's movement of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index affects the next - day movement of domestic stock indices [12][13]. - The Granger causality test on the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and the SSE 300 and CSI 1000 indices shows that the lagged first - order NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index has a certain predictive effect on domestic stock indices, and it can be used to predict the next - day movement of domestic stock indices statistically [16]. 3. Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index 3.1 Strategy Basic Logic - When (closing price - opening price)/opening price of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index on the previous day is greater than X%, indicating that the K - line entity is at least a medium - sized positive line, go long on domestic stock indices at the opening price the next day and hold until closing [17]. 3.2 Historical Back - test Performance - **Shanghai 50 Index Timing Strategy**: Since 2018, the strategy has significantly outperformed the Shanghai 50 Index, with a compound annualized return of 7.63% (compared to 0.22% of the Shanghai 50 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 44.43% to - 13.21% [19][22]. - **SSE 300 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy is 8.42% (compared to 1.28% of the SSE 300 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 45.6% to - 10.07% [23][24]. - **CSI 500 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy can reach 11.05% (compared to 1.65% of the CSI 500 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 41.68% to - 9.44% [28][29]. - **CSI 1000 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy can reach 12.74% (compared to 0.63% of the CSI 1000 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 45.38% to - 10.51% [33][36]. 4. Conclusion - The strategy based on the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index can significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark indices in the past seven - plus years, with a smoother net - value curve, enhancing returns and reducing the maximum historical drawdown, especially effective for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [37]. - The research expands investors' strategy toolkits and helps futures and options intraday traders optimize trading decisions and improve trading win - rates [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper 2511 closed at 79,850 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a week-on-week decrease of 1.52%. The center of Shanghai copper moved lower. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but the Fed Chairman said this was a risk - management - type interest rate cut, and the call for a 50 - basis - point cut was not high, cooling the loose expectation. China's economic data for August showed slow industry, weak investment, and light consumption. In the second half of the week, the futures price fell, and the spot premium stopped falling and rebounded [4]. - Fundamentally, the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia remained suspended. The impact of maintenance in September increased, and combined with the tight supply of cold materials, the domestic electrolytic copper output was expected to decrease by more than 4% month - on - month and increase by more than 11% year - on - year. The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week due to pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in the futures price in the second half of the week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities increased week - on - week last week. The total production plan of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in September decreased by 7.2% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from September 1 - 14 increased by 6% year - on - year. The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September increased slightly month - on - month. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, the bonded - area inventory increased slightly, the LME copper inventory continued to decline, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [4]. - With the cooling of the loose expectation and limited fundamental drivers, Shanghai copper entered a volatile phase and should be treated within a range [4]. Summary by Directory Price Data - In the second half of the week, the futures price fell, and the copper spot premium stopped falling and rebounded [11] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M discount narrowed week - on - week [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by 0.5 US dollars/ton week - on - week to - 40.8 US dollars/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports increased by 31,800 tons week - on - week to 724,500 tons [16] - The refined - scrap price difference weakened week - on - week [18] - Due to increased maintenance in September, the domestic electrolytic copper output was expected to decrease by more than 4% month - on - month and increase by more than 11% year - on - year [20] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [21] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory increased slightly week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to decline, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [25] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week due to pre - holiday stockpiling for the National Day and the decline in the futures price in the second half of the week [27] - From September 1 - 14, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [31] - The expected output of photovoltaic modules in September increased slightly month - on - month, but there were differences among leading enterprises [32] - The planned production of household air conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - In August in China, the new social financing was 2.57 trillion yuan, and the new loans were 590 billion yuan [40] - In the US, the core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations [42] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, emphasized the downward risk of employment, and believed that inflation had risen [43]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, expecting short - term weak and volatile trends [5]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a historical low. Seasonal replenishment provides support at the bottom. It is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short - term, with support at around 13,500 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The 2025/26 US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast [5]. - **Demand**: The 2025/26 Chinese cotton consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish, but there are signs of marginal improvement in current downstream orders. As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%. As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 4,232, with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 169,700 tons (200,600 tons on September 12) [5]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,515 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall planting cost of self - owned land has decreased slightly. The cost of cotton planting on rented land is equivalent to a seed cotton price of 6.0 - 6.2 yuan/kg, equivalent to about 13,500 - 13,600 yuan/ton on the futures market. The overall average cost of ginning plants in the new year is expected to be 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton, and the opening purchase price is not expected to be high [5]. - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Retail sales in August showed strong growth, but tariffs and a weak employment market pose downward risks. The US consumer confidence index in September continued to decline, reaching the lowest level since May. On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In China, waiting for the Politburo meeting in October, domestic demand - side policies are continuously strengthening, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5]. 3.2 02 Week - on - Week Data Charts 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the global cotton production is 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and the total consumption is 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9]. 3.2.2 US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. Consumption is 370,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year [10]. 3.2.3 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast. Consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11]. 3.2.4 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO) - In 2025/26, the estimated production is 7.42 million tons, close to the general expectation of 7.5 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 34% year - on - year, different from the USDA's forecast of flat imports. Consumption is similar to the USDA data, showing a slight year - on - year decrease, not overly pessimistic. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 6.03% year - on - year [13]. Other Data - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: The new - year planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area and Xinjiang planting area show varying degrees of year - on - year increases, while the national and Xinjiang cotton yields show different degrees of year - on - year decreases [19]. - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: Cotton import volume is low, and spinning enterprises are looking forward to import quotas [21]. - **Enterprise Inventories**: As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [27]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Chinese Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%, at a historical low [39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Fed's 25 - basis - point rate cut on September 17 was in line with market expectations, and the dot - plot signaled a dovish stance with a possible 50 - basis - point cut within the year. The Fed is moving towards a more "risk - neutral" policy direction, and this rate cut has a "preventive" characteristic. The market will correct the pricing of monetary easing, and the long - term trends of a weak US dollar and a strong gold market remain, but market liquidity may be weaker than previously expected [2][7][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fed FOMC Meeting Overview - **Interest Rate**: The target range of the federal funds rate was lowered from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%, a 25 - basis - point cut [2][3]. - **Economic Situation**: Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year, employment growth slowed, the unemployment rate rose slightly but remained low, and inflation increased and was still slightly high. The statement removed the description of a "robust labor market" and judged that the downside risk to employment had increased [3]. - **Dual Goals**: The FOMC aims for full employment and price stability (long - term inflation at 2%), and the rate - cut decision was based on the shift in the risk balance [3]. - **Balance Sheet Reduction**: The Fed will continue to reduce its holdings of US Treasuries, agency debt, and agency mortgage - backed securities (MBS), and the balance - sheet reduction is proceeding as previously planned [3]. - **Voting Disagreement**: Among the 12 voting FOMC members, only new理事Milan voted against, preferring a 50 - basis - point cut. The voting result did not show a more divided situation [3]. - **Economic Forecast**: The median expectation of FOMC members is that GDP will grow 1.6% this year and 1.8% next year; the overall inflation rate will be 3.0% this year, drop to 2.6% in 2026, and reach 2.1% in 2027 [4]. - **Dot - Plot**: Among 19 FOMC members, 9 think there will be 2 more rate cuts this year, 2 think 1 more, 6 think no more cuts, 1 thinks there should be a rate hike, and 1 (likely new理事Milan) thinks 5 cuts. The median forecast of the federal funds rate in 2025 was lowered from 3.9% to 3.6%, implying 2 more cuts this year. From September 2025 to the end of 2027, a cumulative 125 - basis - point cut is expected, lower than Trump's expectation of 300 basis points [4]. 3.2 "Preventive" Rate Cut Initiated - Before the meeting, weak employment data, moderate inflation, and controllable tariff transmission led to a consensus market expectation of a rate cut. The 25 - basis - point cut was in line with expectations, and the dot - plot signaled a dovish stance. The Fed is moving towards a more "risk - neutral" policy, and this rate cut is "preventive" due to political risks. The meeting did not show an intensified internal division, and concerns about the Fed's independence have eased to some extent [7]. 3.3 Discussion on Subsequent Rate - Cut Path - Future rate - cut paths depend on employment and inflation data under the "risk - balance" framework, as well as political issues related to the Fed's independence. The US employment situation is complex, with short - term policy boosts but long - term structural problems. Data accuracy issues may increase the difficulty of predicting rate - cut paths. US inflation is expected to rise due to tariffs, peaking around the first quarter of 2026. The scope for further rate cuts within the year is limited, and in the base case, the rate - cut space in 2025 is about 50 - 75 basis points [8][10][12]. 3.4 Market Impact - Mainstream asset prices have largely priced in a 25 - or 50 - basis - point rate cut. After the rate - cut decision, market sentiment declined, with gold prices rising then falling, and US Treasury yields and the US dollar index showing a V - shaped reversal. The long - term trends of a weak US dollar and a strong gold market remain, but the market will correct the pricing of monetary easing, and market liquidity may be weaker than expected [13].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The rebound space of white sugar is limited, and the downward trend is maintained. There are still many negative factors such as potential new import licenses and unexpected syrup imports, and it is advisable to roll short [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import was 1.7778 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 53,900 tons or 3.12%. In July, the total import of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 68,600 tons. The price is expected to go down, and attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar [8] - **Demand**: The stocking for the Double Festival is almost over, the demand release is less than expected, and the supply pressure is emerging. The price is expected to go down [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of domestic sugar mills is low, but the social inventory is at a moderately high level. There are rumors of a second batch of import licenses, which will still put pressure on processed sugar later. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the registered warehouse receipts of white sugar were 11,599, with 6 valid forecasts, totaling 11,605, compared with 12,482 last week. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Basis**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi is 5,725 yuan/ton, the quotation of Guangxi Sugar Group is 5,830 - 5,940 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan Sugar Group is 5,730 - 5,780 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processed sugar mills is 5,950 - 6,080 yuan/ton. The downstream procurement is mainly on a need - to - buy basis. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Profit**: The cost of out - of - quota imports from Brazil is about 5,459 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in cost and a slight decline in profit. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Macro**: The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, and inflation will remain high in the short term. The Fed will also adjust its economic and inflation expectations. The impact on price is neutral [8] - **Strategy**: There is price support around 5,500. Although there will be a rebound, the space is limited, and there will be a decline later. It is advisable to short at high and cover at low [8][9] 02 This Week's Sugar Market News - The ISO predicts a supply gap of only 23,100 tons in the 2025/26 sugar season, much smaller than the 487,900 - ton gap in the 2024/25 season. The global sugar production is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season [14] - In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil was 47.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.596 million tons or 8.17%. The sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 497,000 tons or 15.96% [14] - As of the week of September 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 84, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,000 tons or 0.71% [15] 03 Weekly White Sugar Data - **Foreign**: In the first half of August, the sugarcane crushing volume in central - southern Brazil increased year - on - year, but the cumulative crushing volume from the 2025/26 season to the first half of August decreased year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 1.12 million tons year - on - year [20][23] - **Domestic**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 505,200 tons or 7.34%. The cumulative sugar sales rate was 74.11%, a year - on - year slowdown of 2.54 percentage points. The cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.69%, a year - on - year acceleration of 6.52 percentage points [26][30][33] - **Imports**: In July 2025, the total import of syrup and white sugar premix was 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The out - of - quota import cost increased this week [41][45] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the total number of white sugar warehouse receipts decreased compared with last week [48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market currently has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. New cotton will be in large supply, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. Although it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, downstream demand remains weak. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, with seasonal restocking providing support at the bottom. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, with the range between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: USDA reduced the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres in August, and the harvested area by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The final US cotton production was reduced by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, with a neutral - to - bullish impact. China's new - season cotton production is at a historical low but was increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and there is still room for further increase [5]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish. In the off - season, textile mills have weak inventory - building intentions. According to Steel Union data, the operating rate of textile mills increased slightly to 66.5% this week from 66% last week, and the weekly operating rate of weaving mills also increased slightly to 38% from 37.4% last week. The profit loss of spinning mills continued to narrow, with a profit of - 1,187 yuan/ton this week compared to - 1,352 yuan/ton last week [5]. - **Inventory**: BCO announced that the social cotton inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory was 1.547 million tons this week. The raw material inventory of textile mills was 27.44 days this week compared to 27.5 days last week, and the yarn inventory of textile mills was 30.6 days this week compared to 31 days last week [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 5,017, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 200,600 tons, compared to 233,100 tons on September 5 [5]. - **Basis**: According to Wind data, as of September 12, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel data, as of September 11, the arrival price of US cotton M1 - 1/8 was lowered to 16,940 yuan/ton. The price of domestic 3128B lint cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a quotation of 15,220 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton shrank to 1,720 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall average cost of ginning mills this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton. In the new season, with some ginning capacity in northern Xinjiang exiting and the overall demand outlook not optimistic, the opening purchase price is not expected to be high. According to market feedback this week, the purchase of hand - picked cotton has started in southern Xinjiang, and the price of seed cotton has risen rapidly from the initial 7.3 - 7.4 yuan/kg to 7.6 - 7.7 yuan/kg [5]. - **Macro**: The market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The US employment market is weak. The non - farm employment number was revised down by 911,000 from March last year, an average monthly reduction of nearly 76,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. The overall CPI monthly rate is 0.382%, and the core CPI monthly rate is 0.346%. The market has priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year [5]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory all show different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [9]. - **Production by Major Producing Countries**: The production of major cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. In 2025/26, China's production is 6.858 million tons, the US is 2.877 million tons, and India is 5.117 million tons [10]. - **Demand Changes in Major Producing Countries**: The consumption of major cotton - consuming countries such as China, India, and Pakistan also shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. In 2025/26, China's consumption is 8.165 million tons, India is 5.443 million tons, and Pakistan is 2.373 million tons [11]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The inventory of US clothing wholesalers and retailers is transitioning from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement and tariff relief, the continuous restocking behavior has been weakened to some extent [17]. - **Domestic New - Season Situation**: The new - season planting area and production are expected to maintain a supply - abundant pattern. The national area and production, as well as Xinjiang's area and production, show different trends in the surveys from February to June [21][22]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: China's commercial cotton inventory is being depleted rapidly. The operating rates of textile and weaving mills show slight increases, and the inventory of textile and weaving mills also shows certain changes [42].