Report Information - Report Title: Monthly Average Price Futures Listing Strategy Report - Valuation Differentiation, Focus on Opportunities in the Strength and Weakness between Varieties [1] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhang Kexin, Wang Junlong, Lin Jing [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Valuation Range**: Assuming Brent crude oil is at $60 - 70 per barrel, the lower marginal prices for PP, PE, and PVC are approximately 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 4,650 yuan/ton respectively; the upper marginal prices are about 7,000 yuan/ton, 7,350 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Driving Forces**: Polyolefins have both supply and demand increasing, while PVC demand is weak. Combining the balance sheets, PE has a better outlook. In the fourth quarter, PE is in a tight - balance state, while PP and PVC may experience inventory accumulation [8]. - **Contract Selection**: Considering liquidity, it is recommended to prioritize the PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F contracts [9]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: The listing benchmark prices of PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F are 6,673 yuan/ton, 7,002 yuan/ton, and 4,774 yuan/ton respectively. PP is slightly over - valued, PE is neutrally valued, and PVC is under - valued. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For the L2602F - PP2602F spread, it is recommended to widen the spread on dips, with a reference range of 200 - 600 yuan/ton. PVC is not recommended for hedging for now [11]. Summary by Directory Core Points and Strategies - **Valuation Range**: Based on Brent crude oil at $60 - 70 per barrel, export and import profit formulas, and cost calculations, the lower and upper marginal prices of PP, PE, and PVC are estimated [7]. - **Driving Forces**: Polyolefin supply has a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%, PVC supply grows by about 6%. PP demand grows by about 5.8%, PE demand is supported by the peak season of greenhouse films, while PVC demand is dragged down by the real estate sector. From the balance sheets, PE is in a better position [8]. - **Contract Selection**: Due to liquidity considerations, the PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F contracts are recommended [9]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Given the listing benchmark prices and market factors such as potential Sino - US trade agreements and rising oil prices, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Widen the L2602F - PP2602F spread on dips, and do not recommend PVC for hedging currently [11] Valuation Differentiation - **Production Profits**: PP, PE, and PVC production profits show different trends and levels in different production methods and time periods, with PVC production in a loss state and the integrated profit of caustic soda - PVC slightly in the red [14][21][30]. - **Price Spreads between Varieties**: The price spreads between L - PP, L - PVC, and PP - PVC show different trends over the years, providing potential trading opportunities [36] Polyolefins Supply and Demand Increase, PVC Demand is Weak, PE has a Better Outlook from the Balance Sheet - **Supply and Operating Rates**: The monthly production and operating rates of PP, PE, and PVC show different trends over the years. PP and PE supply is expected to increase, while PVC supply growth is relatively slower [46]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The downstream operating rates of PP, PE, and PVC also show different trends, with PVC downstream operating rates affected by the real estate market [59][69]. - **PVC Exports**: India's anti - dumping tax on PVC has been implemented, but the impact on export data has not yet been reflected [75]. - **Demand**: The real estate market data such as housing completion, new construction, and sales area show a downward trend, which has a negative impact on PVC demand [83]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PP, PE, and PVC show different trends, with PVC inventory potentially increasing [90][99]. - **Balance Sheets**: The balance sheets of PP, PE, and PVC show different supply - demand relationships in different months, with PE in a relatively better position in the fourth quarter [107][110][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still has projects ramping up or awaiting production both domestically and overseas. If the mine supply remains stable, lithium salt production is expected to grow strongly. - The demand side shows that the demand for cathode materials is expected to increase steadily, and the terminal market, including new - energy vehicles and energy storage, remains strong. - In November 2025, if there are no changes in the mine end, there is expected to be a supply - demand gap of 1.2 million tons. - The operation suggestion is to buy 2601 and sell 2605 [2][58]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review in October 2025 - In October, the fundamentals of carbonate lithium showed increased production, decreased inventory, and continuous growth in futures. By October 27, the main contract closed at 81,900 yuan/ton, up 9,020 yuan/ton (+12.4%) within the month. The average spot price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 76,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 74,300 yuan/ton, both up about 4% month - on - month. - In October, raw material prices rose, with a slightly larger increase than lithium salts. By October 27, the price of SMM lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 906 US dollars/ton, up 49 US dollars/ton (+6%) within the month, and the price of SMM lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,990 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+6%) [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Domestic Lithium Mines - Domestic lithium mine production decreased month - on - month. In September, the sample production of domestic mines was 20,000 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 700 tons of LCE (-3.4%), and the cumulative production from January to September was 205,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 52,000 tons of LCE (+34%). - Projects in the process of ramping up production include Lijiagou, Dahongliutan, and Lagocuo [11]. 3.2.2 Overseas Lithium Resources - Australian mines: Production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. In the second quarter, the production of operating mines was about 940,000 tons of ore, a month - on - month increase of about 108,000 tons (+13%), and the sales volume was about 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 150,000 tons (+18%). - South American salt lakes: Continued to grow rapidly. New projects were put into production in 2025, and the Atacama salt lake was expanding production. - American mines: The main projects were relatively stable, with increased production and sales volume month - on - month. In the second quarter, the production of the main lithium spodumene projects in the Americas was 140,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 16,500 tons (+13%), and the sales volume was about 120,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 20,000 tons (+18%). - African mines: Expected to have considerable growth, but geopolitical issues may disrupt production and shipping [16][17][18]. 3.2.3 Domestic Carbonate Lithium Capacity and Production - Capacity: The total smelting capacity of carbonate lithium in China has expanded rapidly in the past two years. In October 2025, the monthly total smelting capacity was close to 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37,400 tons (+33%), mainly from the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends. - Production: The overall production of domestic lithium salt plants has continuously reached new highs this year. In September, the production was 87,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons (+2.4%), and the cumulative production was 684,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,000 tons (+42%) [23]. 3.2.4 Import of Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt - Lithium concentrate: The cumulative import volume increased slightly. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 50,000 tons (+10.6%), and the cumulative import from January to September was 4.37 million tons (+3.4%). Among them, the cumulative import of Australian ore increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and that of Zimbabwean ore decreased by 15%. - Lithium salt: In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons (-10%), and the cumulative import in September was 173,000 tons (+5.2%) [28]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Direct Demand - The production schedule of cathode materials is expected to increase steadily. In September, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons (+13%); the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons (+3%). In October, the estimated production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 5% and 1.65% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong [39]. 3.3.2 Terminal Demand - Power market: The sales of new - energy vehicles in China still had a high growth rate. In September 2025, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles (including exports) were 11.198 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.6%, and the sales penetration rate reached 49.72%. The sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly, and the proportion of plug - in hybrids decreased. - Energy storage: Due to cost reduction and policy support, there is an expected increase in demand. From January to September, the total winning bid capacity of energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8% [45][46]. 3.4 Inventory and Outlook 3.4.1 Inventory - Mine - end inventory dropped to a low level. Lithium salt inventory has been gradually reduced for about 3 months, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased rapidly in advance [51]. 3.4.2 Carbonate Lithium Outlook in November - There are still projects ramping up or awaiting production both at home and abroad. - Raw materials: The Jianxiawo project in China has stopped production, and some mining rights in Jiangxi are still uncertain. Overseas, the production and sales volume of Australian mines, South American salt lakes, and American lithium spodumene in the second quarter did not decrease significantly. Lithium ore inventory has fallen to a low level in the past half - month. - Lithium salt: Production continues to increase, and the proportion of lithium spodumene - end carbonate lithium production has increased from 55% at the beginning of the year to 64%. - Import: The subsequent import of lithium ore and lithium salt depends on the geopolitics in Africa and whether overseas producers will adjust sales volume due to price fluctuations. - Overall, if there are no changes in the mine end, there is expected to be a supply - demand gap of 1.2 million tons in November 2025 [56][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, suggesting investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price rebounds due to the support of the seed cotton purchase price and the low commercial inventory, but there is a certain hedging pressure in the short - term. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the dull demand, the price is likely to show a bearish trend [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 285 - 300 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. China's cotton production is expected to be around 750 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 10%, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is expected to be 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market is trading lightly this week, with most spinning mills making rigid purchases [5] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, the commercial cotton inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. As of October 24, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises can be used for 11.17 days, up from 10.25 days last week [5] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 24, the total of registered warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for Zhengzhou cotton is 12.75 million tons, up from 11.34 million tons on October 17 [5] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,540 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,110 yuan/ton [5] - **Cost**: In 2025, the cotton planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang is approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton is stable at around 7.1 yuan/kg [5] - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and the consumer confidence index continued to decline. In China, policies to boost domestic demand are being strengthened, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5] 3.2 Week - to - Week Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 26.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.14% [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 88.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons, imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, consumption is expected to decline slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 3.57% year - on - year [13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - quality rate of US cotton is 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the weather is unlikely to have an impact [16] - **9 - Month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg, the estimated production is around 750 million tons, the cotton quality is better than last year, the purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang is at a three - year low [25] - **Cotton Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume decreased by 69.7% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 67.17% year - on - year [26] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume decreased by 36.2% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 15.5% year - on - year [28] - **China's Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, the cotton commercial inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is bullish, driven by macro - optimistic sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract 2512 closed at 87,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The market went up due to factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, slow growth of US core CPI in September, and positive economic data from China, the US, and Europe [4]. - The supply of copper is expected to be tight. Domestic smelters' maintenance expanded in October, with anode copper supplement limited. The output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the output in November is also expected to decline month - on - month. The net import of copper in October increased month - on - month [4]. - The demand for copper is affected by high prices. The consumption of refined copper rods is dull. The sales area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities from October 13 - 19 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the same period last year. The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week, while LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Data - The copper spot premium and discount declined as the market was strong but the procurement sentiment weakened. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium and discount weakened week - on - week [12][13]. b) Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.73/ton week - on - week to - $42.7/ton, remaining at a low level [18]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports decreased by 0.26 tons week - on - week to 67.81 tons [20]. - The change in the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [22]. - The domestic electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [24]. - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [26]. - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week. LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [27][28]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased slightly week - on - week, and consumption was dull due to high copper prices [31]. - The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to be 2.2 million, a decrease of 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year [33]. - The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [34]. - The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [35]. c) Macroeconomic Data - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [38]. - The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, and the euro - zone composite PMI in October reached the highest level in a year and a half [40]. - The US core CPI in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest growth in three months, which increased the expectation of another interest - rate cut by the Fed this year [43].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Special Report - Analysis of the Listing of Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts [2][3] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guolian Futures Research Institute [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The listing of monthly average price futures contracts for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene fills the gap in domestic risk management tools, adheres to the trading pricing habits of physical enterprises, and promotes the in - depth application of risk management tools in the industrial chain [7]. - The innovative cash - delivery mechanism facilitates pricing by industrial chain enterprises and helps form a more representative industry reference price [7]. - The inclusion of these three varieties in the tradable scope of qualified overseas investors helps expand international trade cooperation, safeguard China's pricing rights in global trade, and enhance China's influence in the global commodity market [8]. Group 4: Contract Listing Background - On October 20, 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) officially announced the listing of monthly average price futures contracts for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, which will start trading on the night of October 28, 2025 [7]. - Monthly average price futures contracts use the weighted average of daily settlement prices or quotes in a specific month as the final settlement price, which is more in line with the trading habits of physical enterprises [7]. - The application and promotion of these contracts can refer to the research project of Guolian Futures Research Institute, and their listing has epoch - making significance [7]. Group 5: Contract Listing Important Matters 5.1 Trading Time - The three chemical monthly average price futures will start trading at 21:00 on October 28, 2025 (with a pre - trading session from 20:55 - 21:00), and night trading will be available [9]. 5.2 Trading Contracts - The first - batch listed contracts start from the 2602 contract. For example, linear low - density polyethylene has L2602F, L2603F, L2604F; polyvinyl chloride has V2602F, V2603F, V2604F; and polypropylene has PP2602F, PP2603F, PP2604F. New contracts for the next month will be added after the last trading day of each month [9][10]. 5.3 Listing Benchmark Price - The listing benchmark price is the settlement price of the corresponding contract on October 28, 2025. Specific information can be queried on the DCE website [10]. 5.4 Margin Ratio and Price Limit - The trading margin ratio and price limit of the three chemical monthly average price futures contracts are the same as those of the corresponding contracts [10]. 5.5 Arbitrage Trading Instructions - Support for arbitrage trading instructions, including same - variety inter - period arbitrage, cross - variety arbitrage, and arbitrage between different delivery methods [11]. 5.6 Fees - The trading fee is 1 yuan per lot for normal trading and 0.5 yuan per lot for hedging. The delivery fee is 1 yuan per lot, and it will be waived before December 31, 2025, except for high - frequency traders recognized by the exchange [11]. 5.7 Declaration Fee - The declaration fee is charged daily, with different standards based on the amount of information and order - to - trade ratio (OTR) for different varieties [12]. 5.8 Portfolio Margin - The three chemical monthly average price futures contracts participate in portfolio margin discounts. Specific information can be queried on the DCE website [13]. 5.9 Position Information Publication - After daily settlement, the exchange will publish contract - related trading volume and open interest as required [13]. 5.10 Trading Limits - The trading limits for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures contracts are 8000 lots, 18000 lots, and 10000 lots respectively. Hedging and market - making trading are not subject to these limits [13][14]. 5.11 Position Limits - Position limits are implemented according to the "Dalian Commodity Exchange Risk Management Measures", with different limits in different time periods [14]. Group 6: Contract Content - The trading varieties are linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride, with a trading unit of 5 tons per lot, a quotation unit of yuan per ton, and a minimum price change of 1 yuan per ton [15]. - The price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and the contract months are from January to December [15]. - The trading time includes morning (9:00 - 11:30) and afternoon (13:30 - 15:00) sessions, and other trading times as stipulated by the exchange. The last trading day is the last trading day of the month before the contract month, and the delivery date is the same as the last trading day [15]. - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, and the delivery method is cash delivery. The trading codes are L + contract month + F, PP + contract month + F, V + contract month + F, and the listing exchange is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [15].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251019: Macro and fundamentals are intertwined, and Shanghai copper will fluctuate in the short term [1] Core View - Macro and fundamentals are intertwined, and Shanghai copper will fluctuate in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Downstream procurement sentiment is dull, and copper spot trading is average [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M spread strengthened on a week - on - week basis [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index was -$40.97/ton, still low [17] - The loss caused by the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine was 45% higher than previously estimated [18] - The refined scrap copper price difference decreased on a week - on - week basis [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [24] - This week, both the electrolytic copper spot inventory and bonded area inventory increased within the week [26] - LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper inventory increased [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded on a week - on - week basis but decreased year - on - year. Enterprises resumed production but were restricted by high copper prices, and consumption was weak [30] - From October 1st to 12th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market decreased by 1% year - on - year [32] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to be slightly reduced [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [34] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [38] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [41] - Powell left the door open for the Fed to cut interest rates, but there are differences within the Fed on the pace of rate cuts [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying index market remains in a bull market in Q4 2025, but there is a local overheating of leveraged funds in the short - term. The implied volatility of options is at a moderately low level, and there may be local volatility pulses in Q4 due to increased Sino - US relations uncertainty. In a bull market with a negative skew structure, shorting out - of - the - money put options after local volatility pulses is worth attention. As Sino - US relations uncertainty grows, index trends may shift from unilateral upward to range - bound, and investors with long futures positions are advised to sell out - of - the - money call options near the upper bound of the range for additional income [4][5][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Pre - Q3 Financial Options Market Operation Option Market Activity Highly Differentiated - There are 12 listed financial options, with 5 on the SSE, 4 on the SZSE, and 3 on the CFFEX. From January 1 to September 25, 2025, the total trading volume was 1.353 billion contracts, with an average daily trading volume of 7.516 million contracts, a total turnover of 1.25744 trillion yuan, an average daily turnover of 6.986 billion yuan, and an average daily open interest of 8.706 million contracts. Compared with the same period in 2024, the average daily trading volume, turnover, and open interest increased by about 17%, 48%, and 47% respectively. In Q3 2025, the average daily turnover increased by 101.4% quarter - on - quarter. The turnover of small - and medium - cap index options and ChiNext options increased significantly, while that of large - cap index options changed little [10][11][12]. Market Prefers to Trade Growth - Oriented Index Options - In Q3 2025, the CSI 1000 index options had the highest market share at 33.29%, followed by the Southern CSI 500 ETF options at 18.05%, and the ChiNext ETF options at 12.85%. The market generally prefers growth - oriented index options with higher volatility [14]. The PCR of Open Interest Indicates Over - Enthusiasm among Put Option Sellers - In Q3 2025, the PCR of open interest of major financial options mostly followed the underlying index's fluctuations, showing an upward - trending oscillation. The PCR of IO and MO options reached extremely high levels above the 99th percentile, indicating an over - proportion of put option sellers and local market overheating [20]. Stock Index Options Market Volatility Option Implied Volatility Shows an Up - and - Down Trend - In Q3 2025, the implied volatility of options first rose and then fell. The average implied volatility of IO and MO options reached around the 90th and 87th percentiles in the past three years, respectively. During the upward movement of the underlying index, the implied volatility showed different patterns at different stages. Currently, the implied volatility has returned to a relatively low level in the past five - year period, and the room for further decline is limited [23][28][29]. The Proportion of Negative Skew Decreased Significantly in Q3 - The proportion of negative skew in Q3 decreased compared with Q2. The decrease was partly due to the end of the dividend period of index component stocks and the stagnation of small - cap stocks after late August, which reduced the hedging demand of public and private funds. The buying momentum of out - of - the - money call options weakened after reaching a high in late August, indicating market caution [33][35]. The Frequency of "Near - Low, Far - High" Implied Volatility Increases - Taking the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index options as examples, the proportion of the "near - low, far - high" term structure of the CSI 1000 index options increased in Q3, indicating a relatively stable market trend and a lower frequency of short - term sharp fluctuations, suggesting a healthier and more sustainable market upward movement [38][40]. Q4 Volatility Outlook - In Q3 2025, the difference between the implied volatility and the 30 - day historical volatility of IO and MO options had a certain range of fluctuations, and the average difference showed that the environment for option sellers improved compared with Q2. Currently, the implied volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index options has bottomed out and rebounded, with a moderately low premium level. There is a possibility of upward volatility pulses in Q4 [41][42][44]. Option Strategy Review and Recommendation Long - Term Excess Returns of IM Long Positions - As of October 10, 2025, long - term holding of the IM current - month contract has achieved a cumulative return of 44.5%, 11.2 percentage points higher than the CSI 1000 index. However, there was a significant retracement from mid - August to early September due to the stagnation of small - cap stocks and the convergence of futures discounts [45]. Returns of Put Option Sellers in the First Three Quarters - Back - testing shows that although put option sellers did not outperform the underlying index in Q3, the stability of the fund curve was better, and the average retracement was significantly reduced [48]. Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on Option Synthetic Underlying Premiums - The quantitative timing strategy based on ETF option synthetic underlying premiums has achieved an annualized return of 19.5% and a maximum retracement of 17.83% on the CSI 500 index futures since 2018. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved an absolute return of 21.41% with a maximum retracement of only 3.25% [54]. Classic Option Double - Selling Strategy - The double - selling strategy is most suitable for the relatively stable SSE 50 index options, with a cumulative return of 12.96% and a maximum retracement of less than 6% in the first three quarters of 2025. The IO option double - selling strategy has achieved positive returns but suffered a significant retracement during the unilateral market since July. The MO option double - selling strategy has the most unstable returns, with a cumulative return of - 2.52% and a relatively large maximum retracement [56][58]. Q4 2025 Outlook - In Q4 2025, the underlying index market is still in a bull market, but there is local overheating of leveraged funds in the short - term. The implied volatility of options is at a moderately low level, and there may be local volatility pulses. In a bull market with a negative skew structure, shorting out - of - the - money put options after local volatility pulses is worth attention. As Sino - US relations uncertainty grows, index trends may shift from unilateral upward to range - bound, and investors with long futures positions are advised to sell out - of - the - money call options near the upper bound of the range for additional income [66].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint There is a concern about tariffs again, leading to a correction in Shanghai copper prices, but the expected depth of the decline is limited [1] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Price Data - The Shanghai copper market rallied after the holiday, with downstream purchases mainly for rigid demand [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened on a weekly basis [11] Fundamental Data - On October 10, the spot TC for copper concentrates was about -$40.7/ton, still at a low level [15] - Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [24] - After the holiday, both the spot inventory and bonded area inventory of electrolytic copper increased [25] - LME copper inventory decreased on a weekly basis, while COMEX copper inventory increased on a weekly basis [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased significantly on a weekly basis this week, as the post - holiday copper price rally suppressed consumption and dragged down the operating rate [28] - From September 1 to 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 16% year - on - year [31] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [32] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual figure of the same period last year [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in September rose to 49.8, rebounding for the second consecutive month [37] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [39] - There are differences among Fed officials regarding the magnitude of interest rate cuts [40]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass valuation in 2025 faces two major pressures: supply surplus and inventory accumulation affecting spot prices, and the financial and profit situation of the real - estate industry limiting the upstream's share. In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations, and the valuation boost from the demand side is limited. Cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair power from the supply side [3][56][68]. - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern remains in Q4, with high industry inventory and operating pressure. New capacity addition and slow capacity clearance will continue to put pressure on the spot price. The cost of synthetic soda ash production is expected to decline in October. The SA01 contract should pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [5][7][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 1.1 Glass 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, ignition advanced, cold - repair slowed, and daily melting increased. A total of 2 float glass production lines were cold - repaired, and 4 were ignited. By the end of September, the daily melting of glass was 161,300 tons per day, an increase of 3,500 tons per day compared to the end of Q2. The glass production cost decreased slightly, and the industry profit improved slightly, but natural - gas production lines were still in the red [17][18]. - Demand: In Q3, there was support from rigid demand in deep - processing, and the demand for replenishing inventory from the mid - and downstream was released. As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream were 10.5 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The inventory of mid - and downstream enterprises increased [25]. - Inventory: In Q3, the glass inventory shifted to the mid - and downstream of the industrial chain. By September 26, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 9.861 million weight boxes compared to the end of June, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56% [46]. 1.2 Glass 2025 Q4 Outlook - Demand: The overall demand trend is downward. In Q4, the rigid demand is expected to be strong first and then weak. The high inventory of the mid - stream may squeeze the upstream production and sales. The demand from the automotive industry is expected to maintain a high year - on - year increase, while the home - appliance industry's order volume is expected to decline year - on - year [56][57]. - Supply: There is still room for ignition and cold - repair of production lines in Q4. Policies such as clean - energy transformation and "anti - involution" may bring downward risks to supply [61]. - Industry Structural Adjustment: Policies to promote the structural optimization and green transformation of the glass industry are expected to be implemented repeatedly in Q4. The discussion on the Shahe clean - energy transformation project will also continue, but the progress of fuel switching in glass factories may be slower than expected [67]. 1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Valuation: The cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally. The valuation boost from the demand side is limited, and attention should be paid to the supply - side factors for valuation repair [68]. - Strategy: In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations. There may be a situation where production and sales weaken and the spot price cools down. For the FG01 contract, pay attention to the low - buying opportunity after the premium is reversed and based on the cost [69]. Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, the decline in the operating rate due to maintenance was limited. The supply pressure remained high due to the high - capacity base and new capacity put into production in Q2. By September 26, the soda - ash output in September was about 2.8204 million tons, with a heavy - soda output of 156,260 tons and a light - soda output of 125,780 tons. The average heavy - soda ratio in September was 55.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of soda - ash plants in September was about 87.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [87]. - Cost Valuation: In Q3, the increase in coal prices led to an increase in the cost center of synthetic soda - ash production. The soda - ash industry still faced great loss pressure [87]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda from the glass industry improved in Q3. The daily consumption of heavy soda by float and photovoltaic glass was about 49,800 tons by September 29, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons per day and a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons per day. The demand for light soda from downstream industries was supported. In September, the weekly average apparent demand for light soda was 342,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.096 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 221,000 tons [90]. - Import and Export: In August, China's net export of soda ash remained at a historically high level. In August 2025, China exported 215,400 tons of soda ash, with an average export price of 170.64 US dollars per ton, equivalent to 1,222 RMB per ton, and imported 289.9 tons [94]. - Inventory: In Q3, the upstream inventory of soda ash fluctuated at a high level and decreased in September with the mid - and downstream replenishing inventory. By September 26, the inventory of soda - ash plants was 1.6515 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 216,000 tons [99]. 2.2 Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Outlook - Supply: The second - phase project of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production within the year, increasing the supply pressure. After the maintenance season, the planned production - capacity loss will decrease, and the operating rate is expected to rise, further increasing the supply pressure. The industry will continue to clear excess capacity, but the clearing process is slow [102]. - Demand: The demand for light soda is supported, with strong performance in traditional and emerging industries. The supply of float glass in Q4 is expected to be stable, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [105][106]. 2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Supply - Demand Outlook: In Q4, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance and new capacity addition. The demand is expected to be stable, with support for light soda and stable daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass [109]. - Valuation: The current spot price can promote capacity clearance, but the process is slow. With new capacity expected to be put into production, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to be under pressure. The cost of synthetic soda - ash production is expected to decline in October [7][109]. - Strategy: In the surplus pattern, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to find the bottom. The implementation of the second - phase project of Yuanxing may further push down the soda - ash price. For the SA01 contract, pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q3 2025, the A-share market broke through the shock pattern and continued to rise. The external environment remains complex in Q4. The US tariff pressure on China persists, and the "rush to export" trend is unsustainable, putting pressure on the current account. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and the capital account is expected to continue to recover. Domestically, the conversion of expectations into reality is evident, but the continuous effect of the "anti-involution" policy on deflation still requires demand-side support, and the recovery of corporate profits is not yet stable. Policy and monetary effects will take time to be transmitted to the PPI, which is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The index's range-bound pattern may continue, and the previous long IF and short IM hedging portfolio is recommended to be held. Allocation investors need to control their stock index positions, and long-term investors should focus on the progress of profit repair and policy effects [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Indexes Break Through the Shock Pattern - **Market Review**: In Q1, the A-share market continued the shock pattern since Q4 2024. After being affected by Trump's "reciprocal tariff" remarks in April, the market recovered with the implementation of domestic policies and the easing of Sino-US trade frictions. In Q3, multiple positive factors supported the market, including the "anti-involution" policy, the continuation of the "rush to export" trend, the appreciation of the RMB, and the narrowing of the Sino-US interest rate spread, providing sufficient liquidity for the stock index market [9]. - **Industry Performance**: In the first three quarters of 2025, industries showed significant differentiation. Precious metals and related non-ferrous metals led the gains due to Trump's tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. As of September 26, communication, non-ferrous metals, and electronics had the highest increases, while coal, food and beverage, and petroleum and petrochemicals had the largest declines [11]. - **Stock Index Basis**: The expansion of neutral strategies and the increase in the index dividend rate led to a larger discount in stock index futures. The injection of rescue funds and the active trading sentiment increased the trading volume of the A-share market, and the small and medium-cap style was dominant. The expansion of neutral strategies increased the hedging demand for stock index futures, and the high dividend rate of listed companies also contributed to the larger discount [13][17]. 2. Market Valuation: Focus on Earnings-Driven Valuation Digestion - **CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes**: The valuation levels of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes have been significantly repaired. As of September 26, their price-to-book ratios were at historically low levels in the past 10 years [22]. - **SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes**: There is a divergence in the valuations of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes. Their price-to-earnings ratios are generally in the high historical range, while the price-to-book ratios are relatively low. This difference is due to the significant valuation recovery since September last year, but the improvement in market profitability still takes time [22]. - **Index Crowding**: There is a potential for short-term style rebalancing. The crowding degree of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has narrowed, and the market's enthusiasm for the CSI 500 index remains high. The relative valuation of the CSI 1000 index has further recovered. The crowding degree difference between the CSI 1000 and CSI 300 indexes has reached a high level in the past two years, increasing the potential for mean reversion [26][29][32]. - **Stock-Bond Cost-Effectiveness**: The stock market does not have an obvious relative advantage. After the continuous rise since September last year, the stock market is at a low level in terms of the stock-bond cost-effectiveness indicator. Although the domestic interest rate cut window is opening, the relative valuation of the stock market compared to the bond market is still at a relatively high level [35]. - **Valuation Summary**: After the continuous repair of the A-share market valuation this year, the relative valuation advantage of the stock index market over bonds has weakened, and the current stock-bond cost-effectiveness is still at a low level. There is a differentiation pattern within the market, and the valuation repair is faster than the profit recovery. Attention should be paid to the subsequent profit repair to drive the convergence of indicators. The CSI 1000 index may experience a style rebalancing [37]. 3. The Effect of Transforming Domestic Expectations into Reality is Evident - **Improvement in Financial Transmission Efficiency and the Need for Further Policy Release**: In August 2025, the "gap" between M2 and M1 growth rates narrowed, indicating an improvement in the capital activity and efficiency of enterprises. However, the structure of social financing shows that the endogenous economic momentum is still insufficient, and policies need to be continuously strengthened in Q4. The growth rate of social financing stock slowed down for the first time this year, mainly due to the high base last year, the decrease in government bond financing, and the weak demand for entity financing [38]. - **The "Anti-Involution" Policy Improves Deflation Expectations, but Profit Recovery Still Depends on Demand-Side Support**: The "anti-involution" policy proposed in early July is an important driving force for the stock market, but the policy's effectiveness takes time. The net profit of the four major index component stocks and the profits of industrial enterprises above the designated size are still at the bottoming stage. The price level is still weak, and the recovery of demand is insufficient. The scissors gap between the purchase price index and the ex-factory price index squeezes corporate profit margins. The PPI is expected to turn positive around Q2 2026 [41][46]. 4. Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer Appear, and the Pressure on the Capital Account May Continue to Ease - **Initial Signs of Asset Allocation Transfer**: After the loan prime rate (LPR) was lowered in May, commercial banks lowered deposit rates, and some banks' one-year fixed deposit rates fell below 1%. The increase in listed companies' dividends and the entry of rescue funds are changing the asset allocation behavior of residents. Funds are flowing from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial institutions, and the A-share market is expected to receive sufficient allocation funds [50][53]. - **The Change in the Dominant Factor of the US Dollar and the Easing of Pressure on the Capital and Financial Account**: The US dollar's traditional safe-haven asset status is fading, and its price is now more influenced by interest rates. The continuous expansion of the US debt and geopolitical conflicts have eroded the US dollar's credit foundation, leading to a weakening trend. The weakening of the US dollar supports the RMB, and the capital and financial account is expected to recover [55][57]. - **The Unsustainable "Rush to Export" Trend and the Pressure on the Current Account**: During the Sino-US trade negotiations, the "rush to export" trend was obvious, supporting economic growth in the first three quarters. However, due to the high tariffs on Chinese exports and the passage of the "Big and Beautiful Act" in the US, the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, and the current account will face significant pressure in Q4 [59][64]. 5. Summary - The US's tariff measures against China have limited room for adjustment, and the "rush to export" trend is difficult to sustain, putting more pressure on China's current account in Q4. However, the weakening of the US dollar eases the pressure on the RMB's passive depreciation, and cross-border capital flows are expected to continue to recover. Domestically, although the financial system's transmission efficiency has improved and the "anti-involution" policy may marginally improve deflation in Q4, the price increase still depends on demand-side support, and the deflation risk has not been completely eliminated. After the valuation repair of the A-share market, the relative attractiveness of equity assets has weakened. The profit recovery is the key to whether the market's overall center can rise. The PPI is expected to turn positive in mid-2026, bringing about a resonance of profit and valuation in the stock index market. The style may rebalance, and the previous hedging portfolio is recommended to be held, while investors should control their positions and focus on profit recovery [65][67].