Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to be in a volatile pattern. In the long - term, it has strategic allocation advantages due to global central bank gold - buying trends. In the short - term, it will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation before the December Fed meeting and oscillate at the key level of $4000. Trading positions should wait, while long - term allocation can be made on dips after stabilization [4]. - Silver is in a short - term volatile consolidation. Its price trend is highly correlated with gold, and the long - term price center will follow gold's upward movement. Its price elasticity is higher than gold [5]. - The report suggests paying attention to the progress of the US government shutdown and subsequent macro data, as well as whether the Fed will start bond - buying operations for reserve management [5]. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 01 Macro Impact Factors - **Fed Interest - Rate Cut**: Powell's hawkish stance made the market re - price the future easing path. Before the December Fed meeting, the market will fluctuate around the interest - rate cut expectation due to data uncertainty caused by the government shutdown and internal Fed differences [7]. - **US Supreme Court's Tariff Legality Ruling**: The case's final decision is pending. In the long - term, the US tariff system will shift to "precision strikes", and the economic drag from tariffs will continue [7]. - **Trade Conflict**: In the short - term, the risk of industrial chain "decoupling" in Sino - US trade has decreased, but structural contradictions remain, and future disputes will focus on technology and security [7]. - **Geopolitical Conflict**: Conflicts in areas like Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela are still ongoing, which is positive for precious metals [7]. - **US Government Shutdown**: It has entered the 40th day, causing impacts on welfare payments, healthcare, and air traffic. The probability of a bipartisan compromise has increased, and attention should be paid to whether an agreement can be reached on November 15 for the government to reopen [8]. - **Physical Gold ETF**: It has seen continuous net inflows for five months, with $82 billion in October. The trading volume has reached a record $170 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [8]. - **Central Bank Gold Buying**: Global central banks' net gold purchases in Q3 2025 were 220 tons, with a 28% quarterly increase and a 10% year - on - year increase. China's central bank has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months [8]. 02 ETF持仓跟踪 - **Gold and Silver ETF Holdings**: Specific data on the holdings and changes of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF from November 3 - 7, 2025 are provided [30]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETF Inflows**: It had net inflows for five consecutive months, with $82 billion in October. North America and Asia led the inflows, while Europe had outflows. The trading volume reached a record high [35]. 03 Exchange Inventory - There is information about gold and silver exchange inventory, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [40][42]. 04 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences - There is information about domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [46][49]. 05 Precious Metals Ratio - There is information about precious metals ratio, but no specific content is provided in the summary part. The data source is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [52][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, the total position of public funds in stock index futures continued to reach a new high since 2015, with the increase mainly from short - position increases. The slowdown of long - position increases and concentration in the IH contract, along with short - position increases in the IM contract, indicate that public funds are more optimistic about large - cap indices. The increase in the proportion of long positions in quarterly contracts may be related to the high historical basis in the futures market. Different types of funds show varying participation in terms of quantity and market value, and the top ten managers' total positions have increased [2][42]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Overall Situation - Significant Growth in Stock Index Futures Position Market Value - As of the end of Q3 2025, public funds held 32,496 lots of stock index futures, a 7.97% increase quarter - on - quarter, with the growth mainly from short - position increases. Long positions were 26,017 lots (up 3.38% QoQ), and short positions were 6,479 lots (up 31.42% QoQ). The total position market value was 43.58 billion yuan, a 28.63% increase QoQ, with long - position market value at 34.25 billion yuan (up 22.15% QoQ) and short - position market value at 9.327 billion yuan (up 59.76% QoQ) [6]. - The net long position was 19,538 lots, a decrease of 699 lots from the previous quarter, but the net long - position market value increased by 9.7 billion yuan to 34.25 billion yuan [6]. - 61 public fund companies participated in stock index futures, 5 fewer than the previous quarter, while the number of participating products increased by 22 to 440. There were 57 long - position companies, 24 short - position companies, 374 long - position products, and 67 short - position products. The number of long - position products has been increasing for 6 consecutive quarters [7][10]. Position Variety and Month Analysis 2.1 Position Variety Indicates Public Funds Are More Optimistic about Large - Cap Indices in the Future - This quarter, public funds' positions in various varieties were divergent. Long - position increases slowed down and were mainly concentrated in the IH contract, with an increase of 1,160 lots (26.6% QoQ) and 1.43 billion yuan (40.82% QoQ). Short - position increases were mainly in the IM contract, with an increase of 1,725 lots (76.9% QoQ) and 3.11 billion yuan (111.1% QoQ). The short - position main variety continued to shift from IF to IM, and the proportion of IM in short - hedge increased from 48.4% to 63.38%. This shows that public funds are more optimistic about large - cap indices [11]. - For different contracts: IF total position was 11,918 lots, with long positions of 10,260 lots (down 5.21% QoQ) and short positions of 1,658 lots (down 5.58% QoQ); IH position was 5,749 lots, with long positions of 5,514 lots (up 26.64% QoQ) and short positions of 235 lots (down 9.96% QoQ); IC position was 6,904 lots, with long positions of 6,287 lots (up 3.09% QoQ) and short positions of 617 lots (down 7.77% QoQ); IM position was 7,925 lots, with long positions of 3,956 lots (up 1.67% QoQ) and short positions of 3,969 lots (up 76.9% QoQ) [17]. 2.2 The Proportion of Long Positions in Quarterly Contracts Continued to Increase Significantly - This quarter, the proportion of public funds' long positions in quarterly contracts increased significantly and reached a historical high, while the proportion in current - month contracts continued to decline. This may be related to the high historical basis in the futures market, as quarterly contracts have higher and more stable basis than current - month contracts. Specifically, the proportions of long positions in current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 14.41%, 0.66%, 78.36%, and 6.57% respectively, with changes of - 12.7, - 0.86, 17.96, and - 4.42 percentage points QoQ. The proportions of short positions were 33.36%, 1.53%, 58.95%, and 6.15% respectively, with changes of - 11.2, 1.31, 6.47, and 3.43 percentage points QoQ [18]. Position Situation of Various Fund Products 3.1 Significant Increase in the Number of Index - Enhanced Products - The total number of public fund products participating in stock index futures increased by 22 to 440. The number of index - enhanced and flexible - allocation products increased the most, from 120 and 36 to 131 and 43 respectively, while the number of partial - stock hybrid products decreased from 49 to 42 [20]. - In terms of total participation market value, passive index products were the main participants in long positions of public funds' stock index futures, followed by index - enhanced products. The long - position market values of passive index and index - enhanced products increased significantly, and the short - position market value of flexible - allocation products increased significantly, from 24.277 billion, 2.692 billion, and 0.965 billion yuan to 29.499 billion, 3.265 billion, and 3.695 billion yuan respectively. Partial - stock hybrid, flexible - allocation, and neutral products were the main participants in short positions, different from the previous quarter when it was mainly neutral products, indicating that public funds are more cautious about the short - term market and the active hedging momentum has increased [21]. 3.2 Significant Increase in Short Positions of Flexible - Allocation Products in IM - For long - position products, passive index products increased their long positions in all four major futures contracts. Index - enhanced products also significantly increased their positions in IC and IM due to the high historical basis. - For short - position products, in addition to traditional neutral products still having a large proportion of positions in IF, flexible - allocation products significantly increased their short positions in IM from 0.763 billion yuan to 3.46 billion yuan. Partial - stock hybrid products maintained a short - position of about 1.8 billion yuan in IM, with a slight increase from the previous quarter. This shows that public funds are more cautious about small - and medium - cap indices in the later period [34][35]. The Total Position of the Top Ten Managers Continued to Increase - This quarter, the total position of the top ten managers reached 28,153 lots, with a total position market value of 37.447 billion yuan, increasing by 10.78% and 31.86% respectively quarter - on - quarter. China Europe Fund significantly increased its short positions by more than 2,700 lots, and Harvest Fund increased its long positions by 1,200 lots. Specifically, the long positions of the top ten managers were 22,654 lots (up 4.21% QoQ) with a market value of 29.425 billion yuan (up 22.49% QoQ), and the short positions were 5,499 lots (up 49.6% QoQ) with a market value of 8.05 billion yuan (up 83.12% QoQ) [36][37].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The polysilicon industry is facing a situation where the high profits in the silicon material segment are extremely disconnected from the cash - flow pressure in the downstream segments, and there is a continuous game between high inventory and market - expected capital. The current market quotation is over - valued in the short term, and the profitability of the mid - and downstream industries is not optimistic [4][62]. - The short - term game between downstream companies' cash - flow preservation and upstream companies' price - holding and sales - hoarding continues. Downstream companies prioritize cash flow, shrink capital expenditures, and most companies postpone expansion plans. Upstream silicon material companies rely on policy expectations to hold prices [4][6][58]. - Future supply - side reduction requires policy support to eliminate production capacity and the cooperation of downstream demand. The probability of the establishment of a debt - bearing platform company by the end of the year is increasing, but it will take time to realize the supply - side production capacity reduction [4]. - The valuation of polysilicon is high in the short term, with significant differences. In the long term, companies with industrial chain integration and cost - control capabilities will have higher valuation premiums [59][60][61]. Summary by Directory Policy Aspect: Strengthened Expectation of Storage Policy Implementation, Likely to be Completed This Year - Since the second half of this year, "anti - involution" policy signals have been intensively released, and the market's expectation for the clearance and supply - side reform of the polysilicon industry has increased. High - level meetings have emphasized the construction of a unified market and the withdrawal of backward production capacity [13]. - In September, new energy consumption - related policies were introduced to improve terminal demand, but the full solution of terminal demand limitations still takes time, and the installation expectations for next year are not optimistic [18]. - By October, progress was made in the establishment of a platform company for production capacity storage, but the actual implementation of production capacity reduction still requires policy and practical support [14]. Fundamental Aspect: Disconnection between Upstream and Downstream, and Regional Differentiation Industrial Chain Internal: Severe Mismatch between Silicon Material and Downstream Demand, High Inventory as the Core Problem - There is an extreme gap between the high profits in the silicon material segment and the cash - flow pressure in the downstream segments. Silicon material companies maintain high profit margins, while downstream companies such as silicon wafer and battery cell manufacturers face losses [19][24]. - The high inventory of over 400,000 tons in the silicon material segment is the core problem, and there is a slight accumulation trend. The production schedule of polysilicon in October increased by 6% month - on - month, while the component production schedule decreased by 5% month - on - month [19]. - The digestion of high inventory requires a boost in terminal demand, but the future growth rate of domestic terminal installations cannot reach previous levels, and the possibility of significant inventory reduction in the short term is low [27][28]. Regional Supply and Demand: Profit - Driven Operation, Significant Structural Differentiation - In the silicon material segment, leading companies maintain high profits, but production is restricted by policies. In November, the production of silicon material in Inner Mongolia will decrease, but there may be complementary production capacity from other regions [35][40]. - Downstream segments are generally in a loss state, relying on OEM to survive. Component companies face cost pressure from raw materials and weak terminal demand [39]. - In different regions, Inner Mongolia's production is expected to decline due to high electricity prices and policy restrictions; Xinjiang's production is stable due to low - cost energy advantages; the southwest region faces challenges such as rising electricity prices during the dry season and contradictions between production capacity planning and short - term production [40][43][53]. Capital Operation: Differentiation between Cash - Flow Orientation and Capital Layout - In the short term, there is a continuous game between downstream companies' cash - flow preservation and upstream companies' price - holding and sales - hoarding. Downstream companies prioritize cash flow, shrink capital expenditures, and slow down expansion plans. Upstream silicon material companies control sales volume to maintain prices [58]. Industry Valuation: Significant Short - Term Differences, Long - Term Return to Supply - Demand Balance Short - Term Valuation: Game between Policy and Fundamentals, Significant Differences - Silicon material companies' high valuations rely on policy expectations. If the storage policy fails to meet expectations or downstream demand weakens, there is a risk of valuation correction. - Downstream companies' low valuations reflect their loss pressure. If the silicon material price returns to the fundamental level, their profitability and valuations may recover [59]. Long - Term Valuation: Valuation Mainline: Integration and Cost - Control Capability - In the long run, companies with industrial chain integration and cost - control capabilities, especially those with high green - electricity usage ratios and regional cost advantages, will have higher profit stability and valuation premiums [61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations in November 2025, with the 01 contract likely to oscillate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities after the premium is reversed. In the long - term, the cost support of the glass industry will gradually strengthen [3][63]. - For soda ash, in the short - term, there is a risk of capacity clearance. The price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic due to the expected new capacity release [4][102]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Glass 2025 November Strategy Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 October Review - In October, glass supply was stable, demand was weak, and the speculative demand in the middle - stream turned into speculative supply. The upstream inventory increased rapidly, and the prices in the main producing areas dropped. By the end of the month, the spot price stabilized at a low level [11]. - The FG01 - 05 spread continued the reverse - spread trend, corresponding to the weak reality and the market's expectation of environmental protection and capacity - restriction policies [11]. - In terms of supply, the daily melting capacity was stable in October, with 1 line ignited and no cold - repair. The production cost increased slightly, and the profit situation deteriorated [14]. - On the demand side, the deep - processing orders decreased, and the mid - and downstream inventory decreased. The real - estate data was poor, white - goods production decreased year - on - year, and automobile production maintained a high growth rate [20][22]. 3.1.2 Glass 2025 November Outlook - **Demand**: Affected by the real - estate cycle, glass demand is expected to remain weak. In November, the rigid demand may be weak and stable seasonally. Attention should be paid to whether the middle - stream replenishes inventory [50]. - **Supply**: In November, the ignition and cold - repair of production lines are expected to be relatively balanced. The supply may be affected by cold - repair and policy implementation, but the medium - term positive impact is limited [55]. - **Cost**: In October, the increase in fuel prices raised the production cost of the glass industry. The cost support for prices will gradually strengthen [60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the glass supply - demand pattern is expected to remain weak year - on - year, and the upstream inventory is expected to be worse than that in the fourth quarter of last year. - The valuation is driven by supply - side factors and potential mid - and downstream inventory replenishment. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to low - buying opportunities. The 01 - 05 spread has limited room to widen [63]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Strategy Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 October Review - In October, the high - supply and high - inventory pattern of soda ash remained unchanged. The spot price decreased slightly after the National Day, and the production cost increased due to the rise in coal prices. The SA01 contract oscillated in the range of 1200 - 1275 yuan/ton [70]. - In terms of supply, the production of soda ash remained high, but the alkali plant's initiative to reduce the load increased. The cost increased, and the industry's loss expanded [79]. - On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry was stable, and the demand for light soda ash was supported. The net export of soda ash in September remained at a relatively high level [82][86]. - In terms of inventory, the upstream inventory increased seasonally at the beginning of the month and then changed little under the drive of downstream low - price replenishment [89]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2025 November Outlook - **Supply**: The capacity clearance of the soda ash industry is expected to continue in November, but the mid - term price is still under pressure due to the expected release of 2.8 million tons of new capacity from Yuangxing Phase II [95]. - **Demand**: The rigid demand for light soda ash is supported, and the demand for heavy soda ash from the glass industry is expected to be stable [98][99]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In November, the soda ash supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. The price is affected by the progress of Yuangxing Phase II's production. In the long - term, the valuation of soda ash is not optimistic. - The current price of soda ash is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom. The SA01 contract should focus on the previous low support. The 01 - 05 spread lacks fundamental drivers and is more affected by macro factors [102].

Report Title - "Precious Metals Weekly Observation" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is digesting differences through fluctuations after the landing of macro hot - spots. Gold and silver are expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and its fundamentals do not support a deep correction. The market needs to correct the "expectation - reality" pricing of macro hot - spot events and digest the fluctuations in the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. [1][12][13][14][15] Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Precious Metals Observation - **Price Fluctuation**: Precious metals fluctuated around the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the Fed's October interest - rate decision. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions in the first half of the week led to a decline in the safe - haven appeal of precious metals, triggering technical selling. After the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the decision to stop shrinking the balance sheet in December, the precious metals prices stopped falling and entered a volatile phase. [3] - **Fed's October Interest - Rate Decision**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.75% - 4.00% in October and will stop shrinking the balance sheet in December. The market has fully priced in the October interest - rate cut, and the focus is on the subsequent interest - rate cut path. It is considered that the Fed is still likely to cut interest rates in December due to factors such as the cooling of the US employment market and the approaching of PCE to the target. Before the end of the data vacuum period caused by the US government shutdown, the expectation of an interest - rate cut in December may fluctuate repeatedly. [3][4][6] - **Sino - US Trade Negotiations**: On October 30, Sino - US leaders met in Busan, South Korea, reaching a series of practical achievements and setting a one - year tactical easing period for Sino - US economic and trade relations. This will reduce the short - term volatility in the market caused by trade issues, but structural contradictions still exist, and future games will focus more on the fields of technology and security. [7][8] - **China's Gold Tax New Policy**: The new policy mainly affects institutional and corporate participants in the physical gold extraction (out - of - warehouse) link in the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, without adding new taxes or increasing the tax burden on individuals. Its purposes include cracking down on tax arbitrage, strengthening compliance operations, and guiding the market direction. The impact on the domestic gold price is limited. [9][10][11] - **Strategies**: Gold and silver are both expected to be in a volatile state. Gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages, and the current adjustment may provide a good opportunity for layout after stabilization. It is recommended to pay attention to the US Supreme Court's tariff judgment at the beginning of November and the series of macro data after the US government resumes. [12][13] 2. Operating Logic and Views - **Medium - and Long - Term Logic**: In the context of the adjustment and reshaping of the global monetary system and high macro uncertainties, gold has long - term strategic allocation advantages due to factors such as the shaking of the US dollar's reserve currency status, high inflation expectations, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. [14] - **Short - Term Logic**: The one - year buffer period of Sino - US trade negotiations reduces short - term market volatility; the US government shutdown increases market concerns about the US economy; the Fed's October interest - rate cut and the possibility of a December cut make gold more attractive in a low - interest - rate environment; and geopolitical conflicts such as those in Russia - Ukraine and Venezuela still exist. [14] - **Views and Strategies**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. Gold's long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and the current adjustment is a short - term phenomenon. The market needs to digest the impact of macro events and Fed's policies. [14][15] 3. Important Data and Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to US Treasury bond interest rates, the relationship between US Treasury bond real yields and gold prices, precious metal ratios (such as gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio), and precious metal inventories and ETF holdings. [17][21][28][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has witnessed the realization of expectations and a short - term correction. With a tight supply at the mine end, it is advisable to go long on SHFE copper at low levels [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - The market was strong in the first half of the week, with the spot premium declining and rebounding in the second half [11] - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened on a week - on - week basis [12] 3.2 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.55/ton week - on - week to - $42.15/ton, still at a low level [16] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 52,000 tons week - on - week to 626,100 tons [19] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened on a week - on - week basis [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in October decreased month - on - month [23] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [25] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [28] - LME copper continued to see inventory reduction, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [29] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and the high price significantly suppressed downstream procurement [32] - From October 1st to 26th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were flat year - on - year [34] - The shipments of leading photovoltaic module enterprises were satisfactory, and centralized projects showed signs of recovery [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [39] - The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% for the third time, and the economic resilience withstood the headwinds of trade [41] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction in December [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a bearish view on the cotton industry and suggests investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The core view is bearish. The upward movement of seed cotton purchase prices and low commercial inventory support the market, but there is some hedging pressure above after the market rebounds. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the mediocre demand performance, the price may still be dominated by a bearish outlook [3] 3. Summary Based on the Table of Contents 3.1 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 287.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 285 - 300 million tons. China's cotton production is expected to be 708 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. The domestic production is generally expected to be 750 million tons, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons, and the quality is better than last year [3] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market was trading lightly this week, with spinning mills mainly making rigid - demand purchases [3] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 172.02 million tons, an increase of 69.85 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. The industrial inventory was 80.93 million tons, a decrease of 3.62 million tons from the end of September [3] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 30, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 2434, with 1228 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 14.64 million tons [3] - **Basis**: As of October 30, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,600 yuan/ton, and the basis was 1,050 yuan/ton [3] - **Cost**: In 2025, the planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu was between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang was approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton was stable at 7.1 - 7.2 yuan/kg [3] - **Macro - environment**: The US cancelled the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on China, and the 24% reciprocal tariff remained suspended for another year. The US government shutdown affected data release. Domestically, policies to boost demand are expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [3] 3.2 02 Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. Global consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. Consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, and exports are expected to increase slightly to 2.613 million tons [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. Consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, and consumption is expected to decrease slightly year - on - year [12][13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - to - excellent rate of US cotton was 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year [16] - **9 - month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu was between 460 - 470 kg. The expected purchase price of seed cotton was around 6.2 yuan/kg. The old cotton inventory in Xinjiang was at a three - year low, and most yarn mills were operating at full capacity but with narrowed profit margins [23][24][25] - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 690,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 69.7%. From January to September 2025, cumulative yarn imports were 720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.2% [26][28] - **Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, China's cotton commercial inventory was 1.7202 million tons, an increase of 0.6985 million tons from the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is the world's largest importer of propylene, with imports of 2.0185 million tons in 2024, accounting for 34.28% of the global total trade volume. Due to continuous domestic capacity expansion, the import dependence has decreased from 14.14% in 2014 to 3.47% in 2024, and may decline further in 2026 [4][17]. - Propylene trade tends to be short - distance due to transportation conditions and costs. China's imports mainly come from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region of China. South Korea is the largest source of imports, and a potential reduction of 3.7 million tons/year of naphtha cracking capacity may affect propylene exports by 333,000 tons/year, but has limited impact on China's supply - demand pattern. Japan is the second - largest source, and the export volume from Taiwan region to China decreased significantly in 2024 due to a tariff increase [4][5]. - China's propylene exports are relatively small, with 73,200 tons exported in 2024, mainly to Taiwan, Mexico, and Malaysia, having a small impact on domestic supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Import Dependence May Further Decline - The global propylene trade volume has been declining, dropping from about 7 million tons in 2020 to about 5.8 million tons in 2024 [8]. - China's propylene import volume has been decreasing, and the import dependence has declined from 14.14% in 2014 to 3.47% in 2024. In 2026, there will be a large - scale capacity expansion in China, which may further reduce the import dependence [17]. - The 2026 propylene capacity expansion plans cover multiple regions in China, with a total planned capacity of 655,000 tons/year from various enterprises using different processes such as naphtha cracking, PDH, MTO, and CTO [27]. 3.2 The Impact of South Korea's Cracking Capacity Reduction on Propylene Imports Is Small - Propylene trade prefers short - distance transportation. China mainly imports propylene from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region of China. South Korea is the largest source, with imports of 1.4885 million tons in 2024, accounting for 73.75% of the total imports [29]. - South Korea has a propylene production capacity of 11.165 million tons/year, and about 20% of its production is exported. Facing the crisis of "declining competitiveness", South Korea may cut 3.7 million tons/year of naphtha cracking capacity, which may affect propylene exports by 333,000 tons/year, but has limited impact on China's supply - demand pattern [34][41]. - Japan is the second - largest source of China's propylene imports. As of 2024, its propylene production capacity is about 7.14 million tons/year, with a production of about 4.44 million tons and an export volume of 568,100 tons, accounting for 12.8% of its domestic production. The export volume from Taiwan region to China decreased in 2024 due to tariff adjustments [41][47]. - There are mutual imports and exports among South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region, mainly due to low transportation costs, device maintenance, and group - internal contract supply. China's propylene exports are small, having a limited impact on domestic supply - demand balance [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global crude oil supply is expected to be loose with an increasing surplus, while demand will gradually recover from November to December. The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand [10][33][36]. - In the polyester industry chain, anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side. Although demand was better than expected in October, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The low - profit situation of PTA and bottle chips may improve [10][112][113]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: The 200 - million - ton/year PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan was not fulfilled. The monthly average operating rate in October increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The consumption was still good in October. The price was mainly affected by crude oil, first falling and then rebounding [17][19]. - **PTA**: In late October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The monthly average operating rate increased slightly, and the social inventory continued to decline. The spot processing fee was very poor, falling below 100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **MEG**: Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant was put into production in October. The comprehensive operating rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased. The price performance was relatively weak [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate decreased slightly in late October. The demand was expected to remain weak, and the spot processing fee was generally acceptable. The price first fell and then rebounded, with a slight cumulative decline [27][29]. - **Bottle Chips**: The operating rate rebounded from a low level and then stabilized in October. The domestic demand decreased month - on - month, and the export declined from August to September. The spot processing fee fluctuated little, and the price increased slightly cumulatively [31]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production - **Supply Surplus Expectation Intensifies**: In October, eight OPEC member countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a cumulative increase of 2.74 million barrels per day. EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecast, and the supply surplus expectation intensified. Although the demand decreased seasonally, with the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut and other factors, the international crude oil price rebounded after a decline, with a small cumulative decline [33]. - **Demand Will Seasonally Recover**: The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand. The process of the seasonal decline in crude oil demand has basically been completed, and it will gradually recover from November to December [39][48]. 3. The Anti - Involution Narrative Resurfaces - **PTA New Plant Commissioning**: In October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The PTA processing fee was extremely low, which attracted the attention of the competent department. Anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side [51][63]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Tends to Be Loose**: The ethylene glycol operating rate remained at a high level in October, and the supply tended to be loose. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol declined continuously from August to October [64][68]. 4. Demand Is Better Than Expected but Still at Risk of Decline - **Polyester Operating Rate Rises Steadily**: In October, the polyester and loom operating rates increased slightly, showing the characteristic of "no off - season in the off - season". From January to September, the growth of polyester production mainly came from bottle chips, which drove the increase in the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [71][75]. - **PTA De - stocks and Ethylene Glycol Accumulates Stocks**: PTA social inventory continued to decline in October, while ethylene glycol port inventory increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to the expected decline in demand [76][80]. - **Polyester Profits Are Still Under Pressure**: In October, polyester profits first increased and then decreased. The spot processing fee of short fibers was at a relatively high level, and the profit of bottle chips was expected to improve [81][83]. - **Stable Export of Filament and Gradual Recovery of Bottle Chip Export**: From January to September, the exports of filament, bottle chips, and short fibers increased year - on - year. The export of bottle chips had the largest scale and increment, but there was a large pressure of year - on - year decline in single - month exports in the later stage [86][89]. - **Risk of Lagging Decline in Demand**: Although the demand in October was better than expected, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms are expected to decline in the later stage [95][98]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Month - on - Month, but Exports Face Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Gradually**: In 2025, the growth rate of domestic consumption of textile and apparel was not high, but it improved month - on - month. The peak season is mainly in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the consumption situation in the fourth quarter [104][105]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports May Recover from a Low Level**: From January to September, the cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased year - on - year. In October, Sino - US trade relations are expected to ease, which is conducive to the recovery of textile and apparel exports [108][109]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In October, OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the international crude oil price first fell and then rebounded. The prices of polyester industry chain products also showed a similar trend, with better performance than crude oil. The supply and demand of the polyester industry chain increased in October, but the profits were still not ideal [110][112]. - **Outlook**: From November to December, the international crude oil market has both positive and negative factors. The supply of the polyester industry chain is expected to contract along with the decline in demand. The profits of upstream and mid - stream products such as PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to improve [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but weather factors may affect the tapping progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the overall upward driving force is weak [3][63]. - The cost - side supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from October to November. The profit of butadiene rubber is in a loss state, with high - level production and inventory. The annual capacity growth rate of butadiene rubber is 9%, and the inventory remains high [4][65][66]. - The strategy is to dynamically intervene in buying natural rubber and selling synthetic rubber, while paying attention to risk points such as tariff policies, device commissioning and maintenance changes, extreme weather in major producing areas, oil price fluctuations, and the macro - economy [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Market Review in October 2025 - Natural rubber: The rubber market showed a "V" - shaped trend in October. It continued to decline in the first and middle of the month, possibly due to the slightly unexpected rubber reserve release at the end of September and the expected increase in supply in October. The market rose in the later period due to the warming of macro - sentiment. As of October 29, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,625 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (+1.6%) for the month, and the closing price of the NR main contract was 12,720 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (+2.3%) for the month [10]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuated following natural rubber but was weaker than natural rubber. As of October 29, the closing price of the BR main contract was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 545 yuan/ton (-4.8%) for the month [10]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Natural Rubber: Southeast Asian New Rubber Supply May Fall Short of Expectations - Thailand: It may have entered a stable production - decline cycle. Although there is an expectation of increased production in the fourth - quarter peak season, the current new rubber supply is affected by rainy weather. The rainfall in the northeastern part of Thailand is expected to decrease seasonally, but the production there may not increase significantly. The southern part is approaching the rainfall peak, which may still affect tapping. In August 2025, Thailand's rubber production was 458,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons (-0.4%). From May to August, the production was 1.585 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons (-1.5%) [13][14]. - Other major ANRPC members: Indonesia's production has increased this year, with 189,000 tons in August 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 8,500 tons (-4.3%), and a cumulative export of 1.141 million tons of natural rubber as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 86,300 tons (+8%). Vietnam is expected to have a slight production decrease, with 140,500 tons in August 2025, the same as the previous month, and a production of 455,500 tons from May to August, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons (-10%) [15]. - China: Affected by Typhoon "Mujigae" in 2024, about 230,000 mu of rubber plantations in Hainan were damaged. In August 2025, China's production was 113,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (+12%). The rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan in October was lower than that of the previous year. African rubber is rising, with Cote d'Ivoire's cumulative exports reaching 1.05 million tons as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons (+14%) [16]. 3.2.2 Natural Rubber Import: Affected by Overseas Production Increase and EUDR Delay - Import volume is seasonally increasing with the growth of overseas output. Future imports need to pay close attention to industry policies such as EUDR, China - Thailand zero - tariff policy, and zero - tariff policy with 53 African diplomatic countries. The appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht may put pressure on imports. EUDR implementation has been postponed. In September, 595,900 tons of rubber were imported, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (+14%), higher than the average of the past five years (550,000 tons). From January to September, the cumulative import was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [21][22][24]. 3.2.3 Butadiene Rubber: High Inventory - The supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from November to December. The supply side includes: a certain repair of naphtha cracking ethylene profit but still in a loss state, with the weekly production rate dropping to a seasonal low due to maintenance from October to November; a 14% expected capacity growth rate of butadiene in 2025, with the production of 200,000 tons from Jilin Petrochemical and 200,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical put into production in August - September expected to be released, and 180,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter; although South Korea has decided to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, the import volume from South Korea has not significantly decreased, and the import volume from Europe has increased significantly. The demand side focuses on the commissioning progress of SBS and ABS. The inventory of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 - ton production capacity put into production and gradually ramping up at the beginning of the year, and a 50,000 - ton/year low - cis butadiene rubber production device of a certain petrochemical expected to start trial production in late October [37]. 3.3 Demand Side: Domestic Demand is Good, Export is Acceptable, but Trade Frictions Need Continuous Attention - Overseas demand: From January to August, EU car registrations were 7.169 million, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and US car sales were 1.91 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - Direct demand: The performance of all - steel tires is good. From January to September, the domestic production of semi - steel tires was 432 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.96%; the production of all - steel tires was 95.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The start - up rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall enterprise inventory was high. The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires was at a medium - to - high level in the past five years, and the inventory was at a seasonal low. - Tire export: In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to September was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for motor cars was 2.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for trucks and buses was 3.63 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions [43]. - Terminal market: From January to September, passenger car sales were 21.2126 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. Commercial vehicle sales were 3.1118 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, with the growth rate increasing by 1.4% compared to the previous month. The sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow, especially the sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly. From January to September 2025, the sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks were 135,300, a year - on - year increase of 179%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of highway freight turnover was 4.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month [44]. 3.4 Inventory: Synthetic Rubber Inventory is High, and Natural Rubber May Have an Inventory Accumulation Expectation - Natural rubber: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.039 million tons, a decrease of about 49,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The dark - colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons, a decrease of about 22,000 tons, and the light - colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 27,000 tons. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory was 43,800 tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The Shanghai rubber futures inventory was 123,300 tons, a decrease of about 26,000 tons from the end of the previous month, reaching a seasonal low [56]. - Synthetic rubber: The butadiene rubber enterprise inventory increased to 28,600 tons, and the trader inventory decreased to 4,500 tons. The total was still at a relatively high seasonal level. The BR futures inventory was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons for the month. The total inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was about 24,000 tons, at a seasonal medium level [56][57]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Natural rubber: The supply side has an unchanged expectation of increased production, but the tapping progress may be affected by rainy weather in domestic and overseas producing areas. The Southeast Asian producing areas, mainly Thailand, may have a supply increase falling short of expectations. The import is seasonally recovering, but there may be some pressure due to the postponed implementation of EUDR and the appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht. The demand side shows good domestic demand, with relatively good performance of heavy - duty trucks and all - steel tires, but tire exports face challenges due to continuous international trade frictions. Overall, although there is an expectation of increased new rubber supply, factors such as weather may still affect the supply progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the upward driving force is weak [63]. - Synthetic rubber: The cost - side supply of butadiene is abundant, and the supply - demand gap from October to November is expected to gradually widen, which may or may not affect the price of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber has a loss in profit, high - level production, and high inventory, with a 9% annual capacity growth rate and continuously high inventory [4][65][66].