定期报告|月度报告 玻璃：中游库存高企 成本支撑加强 2025 年玻璃纯碱四季度策略报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 纯碱：投产对冲出清 现价继续探底 玻璃： 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 2025 年我们认为玻璃估值主要面临两大压力，一是供应过剩外加库存积累给 现货价格带来的压力，二是下游大头地产行业的资金和利润情况对上游可分配的 蛋糕的限制。截至三季度末来看，今年需求呈现淡季不淡，旺季不旺的特点，三 季度在刚需+中下游补库需求支撑下，玻璃现货价格背靠成本震荡。 张可心 展望四季度，地产行业从新房销售、房企利润、开发商到位资金情况来看，依 旧处于筑底阶段，新开工、施工面积的同比缩量意味着后续竣工面积同比会延续 下行。预期玻璃从需求端得到估值提振的力度依旧有限。季节性来看，10 月仍有 刚需支撑，但年末受过年同比延后的影响，FG01 合约交易冬储的时间或受限。 相关研究报告： 估值方面，经历长期的行业下行以及利润恶化，玻璃产业成本支撑会边际加强。 需求预期偏谨慎的背景下，需要关注供给端带来的估值修复动力，包括亏损格局 下的冷修出清推动，以及"反内卷"政策基调下，能源更 ...

股指期货|季度报告 2025 年股指期货三季度报告 2025 年 9 月 30 日 国联期货研究所 活水破局势如虹，估值待盈风满楼 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 项麒睿 A 股市场在 2025 年上半年延续从去年以来震荡格局后，三季度迎来强 势上行突破。估值方面，股指内部分化明显：上证 50 和沪深 300 指数市盈 率偏高，但市净率处于中低位，估值背离需盈利修复驱动收敛。中证 1000 受益于产业智能化、新兴消费催化和火热交易情绪带来的风险溢价，相对 沪深 300 拥挤度差触及近两年高位，均值回归势能增强，预示风格再平衡 可能临近。 从业资格号：F03124488 投资咨询号：Z0019956 展望四季度，外部环境依然复杂。美国对华关税压力持续，"抢出口" 趋势难以为继，经常账户将承压；但美元信用根基动摇使其长期趋弱，人 民币被动贬值压力缓解，资本账户有望延续修复。国内预期向现实转化效 果显现，但"反内卷"政策对通缩的改善的持续效果仍待需求端发力配合， 企业利润修复尚不稳固。政策和货币效果传导到 PPI 仍需时间，预计 PPI 同比将在 2026 年年中转正，届时股指市场将迎来盈利与估值共振。 ...

能源化工|季度报告 聚酯产业链四季度报告 2025 年 9 月 29 日 成本和需求季节性波动，价格或前低后高 国联期货研究所 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 OPEC+延续增产政策 供应过剩加剧 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 9 月，8 个 OPEC+成员国同意在 10 月份将石油产量提高 13.7 万桶/日，增产 政策延续。EIA 不断上调 2025 年和 2026 年全球原油产量预估，供应过剩预期逐 步强化。从需求季节性变化来看，四季度全球原油需求先下降后回升，根据 EIA 的预估，四季度各个月份原油供应均处于过剩状态。 生产利润普遍偏低 需求淡季供应或下降 PX 和 PTA 现货生产利润较低，以 PTA 更为突出，生产利润偏低使相关企 业的生产积极性偏低，预计装置检修仍较多。据悉，独山能源 250 万吨/年的 PTA 新装置或于 11 月投产，这套装置投产后，短期内没有新的装置将要投产的计划， 产能扩张对价格的压力将有望缓解。 相关研究报： 纺织原料需求旺季不旺 产业需求将面临回落 需求或由旺转淡》2025.0 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250928: Supply Concerns Dominate the Market, Shanghai Copper Expected to Fluctuate Strongly [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Supply concerns dominate the market, and Shanghai copper is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Grasberg copper mine shutdown drives up the market, and the copper spot premium/discount is under pressure to weaken [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation continued to narrow week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.44/ton week - on - week to - $40.36/ton, still low [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 86,500 tons week - on - week to 637,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in October is expected to continue to decline month - on - month [23] - In August, 425,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products were imported, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 2.1% year - on - year [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased slightly week - on - week [26] - LME copper inventory continued to decline, while COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, but the copper price soared, demand was suppressed, and new orders grew slowly [31] - From September 1st to 21st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 10% year - on - year [34] - The production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to continue to decline slightly [35] - The production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in a detailed manner [41] - The US core PCE price index in August increased by 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations [43] - The divergence on the Fed's interest rate cut path has intensified [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The study explores the effectiveness of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index in predicting the short - term trends of domestic stock indices. The quantitative timing strategy based on the previous night's performance of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index can significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark indices, with a smoother net - value curve, enhancing returns and reducing the maximum historical drawdown, especially for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [4][37]. - This research expands investors' strategy toolkits and helps futures and options intraday traders optimize trading decisions and improve trading win - rates [4][37]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index Introduction - It is a stock index compiled by the NASDAQ to track the stock price performance of Chinese companies listed in the US, regarded as a "barometer" of Chinese new - economy enterprises in US stocks. As of September 23, 2025, it has 73 constituent stocks, including Alibaba and Baidu, covering new - economy sectors such as the Internet, new energy, and consumer services. In terms of the number of constituent stocks, the optional consumer and information technology sectors have relatively large shares [9]. 2. Correlation Analysis between NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and Domestic Stock Indices - There is a significant positive correlation (correlation coefficients above 0.65) between the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and the Shanghai 50, SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices in the past three years, indicating that the previous night's movement of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index affects the next - day movement of domestic stock indices [12][13]. - The Granger causality test on the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index and the SSE 300 and CSI 1000 indices shows that the lagged first - order NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index has a certain predictive effect on domestic stock indices, and it can be used to predict the next - day movement of domestic stock indices statistically [16]. 3. Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index 3.1 Strategy Basic Logic - When (closing price - opening price)/opening price of the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index on the previous day is greater than X%, indicating that the K - line entity is at least a medium - sized positive line, go long on domestic stock indices at the opening price the next day and hold until closing [17]. 3.2 Historical Back - test Performance - **Shanghai 50 Index Timing Strategy**: Since 2018, the strategy has significantly outperformed the Shanghai 50 Index, with a compound annualized return of 7.63% (compared to 0.22% of the Shanghai 50 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 44.43% to - 13.21% [19][22]. - **SSE 300 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy is 8.42% (compared to 1.28% of the SSE 300 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 45.6% to - 10.07% [23][24]. - **CSI 500 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy can reach 11.05% (compared to 1.65% of the CSI 500 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 41.68% to - 9.44% [28][29]. - **CSI 1000 Index Timing Strategy**: The compound annualized return of the strategy can reach 12.74% (compared to 0.63% of the CSI 1000 Index), and the maximum drawdown has decreased from - 45.38% to - 10.51% [33][36]. 4. Conclusion - The strategy based on the NASDAQ Golden Dragon China Index can significantly outperform the corresponding benchmark indices in the past seven - plus years, with a smoother net - value curve, enhancing returns and reducing the maximum historical drawdown, especially effective for the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices [37]. - The research expands investors' strategy toolkits and helps futures and options intraday traders optimize trading decisions and improve trading win - rates [37].

铜周报 20250921 宏观乐观情绪降温， 基本面驱动有限 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 | | 本周沪铜主力2511合约周五下午收于79850元/吨，周环比跌1.52%。本周沪铜重心走低：美联储 | | --- | --- | | | 行情回顾 如期降息25基点，但美联储主席表示本次属风险管理型降息，50基点降息呼声不高，宽松预期降 | | | 温；国内8月经济数据显现工业缓、投资弱、消费淡特征。后半周盘面跌，现货升贴水止跌回升。 | | 运行逻辑 | 宏观，鲍威尔称本次属风险管理型降息，宽松预期降温；国内8月经济数据显现工业缓、投资弱、 | | | 消费淡。供给，印尼Grasberg铜矿仍暂停。9月检修影响增加，加之冷料供应紧张，国内电解铜产 | | | 量预计环比降幅超4%、同比增超11%。需求，精铜杆开工环比上升，因节前备库及后半周盛面下 | | | 跌。上周10个重点城市新房、二手房成交面积环比均增。9月空冰洗排产总量较去年同期实绩减 | | | 7.2%。9月1-14日全国乘用车新能源 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, expecting short - term weak and volatile trends [5]. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a historical low. Seasonal replenishment provides support at the bottom. It is expected to be mainly weak and volatile in the short - term, with support at around 13,500 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see on a single - side basis and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 01 Week - on - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: The 2025/26 US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. The 2025/26 Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast [5]. - **Demand**: The 2025/26 Chinese cotton consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish, but there are signs of marginal improvement in current downstream orders. As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%. As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton are 4,232, with 12 valid forecasts, and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts is 169,700 tons (200,600 tons on September 12) [5]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton is 15,250 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,735 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,515 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall planting cost of self - owned land has decreased slightly. The cost of cotton planting on rented land is equivalent to a seed cotton price of 6.0 - 6.2 yuan/kg, equivalent to about 13,500 - 13,600 yuan/ton on the futures market. The overall average cost of ginning plants in the new year is expected to be 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton, and the opening purchase price is not expected to be high [5]. - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims last week dropped significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, the largest decline in nearly four years. Retail sales in August showed strong growth, but tariffs and a weak employment market pose downward risks. The US consumer confidence index in September continued to decline, reaching the lowest level since May. On September 17, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. In China, waiting for the Politburo meeting in October, domestic demand - side policies are continuously strengthening, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5]. 3.2 02 Week - on - Week Data Charts 3.2.1 Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the global cotton production is 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and the total consumption is 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9]. 3.2.2 US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, the US cotton production is 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, with the final output estimated to be between 2.85 - 3 million tons. Consumption is 370,000 tons, remaining flat year - on - year [10]. 3.2.3 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA) - In 2025/26, Chinese cotton production is 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, and there is still room for the USDA to raise its forecast. Consumption is 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2% [11]. 3.2.4 Chinese Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO) - In 2025/26, the estimated production is 7.42 million tons, close to the general expectation of 7.5 million tons. Imports are expected to increase by 34% year - on - year, different from the USDA's forecast of flat imports. Consumption is similar to the USDA data, showing a slight year - on - year decrease, not overly pessimistic. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 6.03% year - on - year [13]. Other Data - **Domestic New - Year Planting**: The new - year planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. According to different surveys from February to June, the national planting area and Xinjiang planting area show varying degrees of year - on - year increases, while the national and Xinjiang cotton yields show different degrees of year - on - year decreases [19]. - **Cotton and Yarn Imports**: Cotton import volume is low, and spinning enterprises are looking forward to import quotas [21]. - **Enterprise Inventories**: As of September 19, the raw material inventory available days of textile enterprises is 10.86 days (11.63 days last week), and the yarn inventory days of spinning mills is 30.4 days (30.6 days last week) [27]. - **Enterprise Operating Rates**: As of September 19, the spinning mill operating rate is 66.6% (66.5% last week), and the weaving mill operating rate is 37.9% (38% last week) [5]. - **Chinese Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of the end of August, the domestic cotton commercial inventory is 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the end of July and a year - on - year decrease of 30.9%, at a historical low [39].

"预防性"降息开启，靴子轻轻落地 国联期货研究所 宏观|专题报告 2025 年 9 月 18 日 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 相关研究报告： 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 稳驭舟 2025 年二季度宏观展望：多 空拉锯，全球高波动弱增长 格局深化 2025 年宏观经济展望：畅通 经济循环，走出低通胀 2024 年中期宏观经济展望： 虚云散尽见真章，厚积薄发 待春雷 2024 年宏观经济展望：行稳 方致远，温和渐进修复 宏观专题：透过金融数据探 寻资金运转逻辑与效率 目 录 3. 后续降息路径探讨 4. 市场影响 证监许可[2011]1773 号 1. 美联储议息会议概览 王娜 2. "预防性"降息开启，靴子轻轻落地 鲍威尔 8 月 22 日在 Jackson Hole 全球央行峰会上鸽派发言后，全球大类资产的 降息交易正式启动，9月17日美联储降息靴子落地，联邦基金利率的目标区间从4.25% 至 4.5%降至 4.00%至 4.25%，降幅 25 个基点。这是美联储 2025 年开年以来九个月内 首次决定降息。美联储自去年 9 月到 12 月连 ...

GUOLIAN F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 徐亚光 从业资格证号：F03093235 投资咨询证号：Z0017169 白糖周报 反弹空间有限 维持空头趋势 目录 CONTENTS | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度核心要点及策略 | 03 | 糖市周内要闻 | 05 | | 03 | | | | | 糖市相关数据 | 08 | | | 2 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度核心要点及策略 3 白糖核心要点及策略 | 因素 | 价格 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年7月份我国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加31.82万吨。2025年1-7月份我国进口食糖177.78万吨，同比增 加5.39万吨，增幅3.12%。不过加工糖和国产糖错峰供应，一定程度上缓解了集中上市带来的冲击，使得市场供需节奏更加平稳，持续关 | | 供应 | 向下 | 注进口糖到港情况。2025年7月我国进口糖浆和白砂糖预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计15.97万吨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market currently has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. New cotton will be in large supply, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. Although it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, downstream demand remains weak. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, with seasonal restocking providing support at the bottom. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, with the range between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: USDA reduced the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres in August, and the harvested area by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The final US cotton production was reduced by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, with a neutral - to - bullish impact. China's new - season cotton production is at a historical low but was increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and there is still room for further increase [5]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish. In the off - season, textile mills have weak inventory - building intentions. According to Steel Union data, the operating rate of textile mills increased slightly to 66.5% this week from 66% last week, and the weekly operating rate of weaving mills also increased slightly to 38% from 37.4% last week. The profit loss of spinning mills continued to narrow, with a profit of - 1,187 yuan/ton this week compared to - 1,352 yuan/ton last week [5]. - **Inventory**: BCO announced that the social cotton inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory was 1.547 million tons this week. The raw material inventory of textile mills was 27.44 days this week compared to 27.5 days last week, and the yarn inventory of textile mills was 30.6 days this week compared to 31 days last week [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 5,017, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 200,600 tons, compared to 233,100 tons on September 5 [5]. - **Basis**: According to Wind data, as of September 12, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel data, as of September 11, the arrival price of US cotton M1 - 1/8 was lowered to 16,940 yuan/ton. The price of domestic 3128B lint cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a quotation of 15,220 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton shrank to 1,720 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall average cost of ginning mills this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton. In the new season, with some ginning capacity in northern Xinjiang exiting and the overall demand outlook not optimistic, the opening purchase price is not expected to be high. According to market feedback this week, the purchase of hand - picked cotton has started in southern Xinjiang, and the price of seed cotton has risen rapidly from the initial 7.3 - 7.4 yuan/kg to 7.6 - 7.7 yuan/kg [5]. - **Macro**: The market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The US employment market is weak. The non - farm employment number was revised down by 911,000 from March last year, an average monthly reduction of nearly 76,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. The overall CPI monthly rate is 0.382%, and the core CPI monthly rate is 0.346%. The market has priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year [5]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory all show different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [9]. - **Production by Major Producing Countries**: The production of major cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. In 2025/26, China's production is 6.858 million tons, the US is 2.877 million tons, and India is 5.117 million tons [10]. - **Demand Changes in Major Producing Countries**: The consumption of major cotton - consuming countries such as China, India, and Pakistan also shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. In 2025/26, China's consumption is 8.165 million tons, India is 5.443 million tons, and Pakistan is 2.373 million tons [11]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The inventory of US clothing wholesalers and retailers is transitioning from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement and tariff relief, the continuous restocking behavior has been weakened to some extent [17]. - **Domestic New - Season Situation**: The new - season planting area and production are expected to maintain a supply - abundant pattern. The national area and production, as well as Xinjiang's area and production, show different trends in the surveys from February to June [21][22]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: China's commercial cotton inventory is being depleted rapidly. The operating rates of textile and weaving mills show slight increases, and the inventory of textile and weaving mills also shows certain changes [42].