沪铜假期事件盘点及前瞻 20260223 海外宏观多空交织、节中累库， 短期震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 假期重要事件/数据盘点 | 1 | | --- | 核心要点及策略 2 影响因素分析 3 01 03 02 价格数据 05 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 20 08 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 节前铜现货成交冷清、贴水承压 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 节中LME铜0-3M贴水环比有所缩窄 7 02 基本面数据 8 2月13日铜精矿现货粗炼费TC约-50.53美元/吨，仍低 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 1月秘鲁矿业生产铜精矿含铜完成计划的115.1%，同期新高 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 节前精废价差有所走强 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 卫星数据显示1月冶炼活动量创近十年最低水平 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 1-12月累计进口未锻轧铜及铜材532.1万吨，同比减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report systematically reviews the cycle characteristics and causes of the commodity bull market, indicating that the core driving force for the excellent performance of commodities during the economic prosperity phase comes from the expansion of real - economy demand and rising inflation [3]. - The commodity index timing strategy 2.0 has limitations such as high noise in trading signals during deflation and insufficient capture of phased rebound markets. The newly developed multi - factor timing strategy significantly improves sensitivity to rebound markets and capture efficiency, with optimized signal quality and better overall timing results [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs "Commodity Bull Market" Cycle Review and Cause Analysis - **"Commodity Bull Market" Cause Analysis**: During economic growth, the demand of major commodity - consuming industries like manufacturing, construction, and transportation increases, directly promoting the expansion of the commodity market and causing price increases. Commodities are effective anti - inflation investment tools during economic prosperity due to their high correlation with inflation [6]. - **Commodity Market Performance in the Economic Cycle**: Using the macro - economic prosperity index year - on - year data and CPI year - on - year data as indicators for economic growth and inflation growth, it is confirmed that the commodity market has the best returns during the prosperity phase [7]. Limitation Analysis and Timing Factor Formulation Method - **Review of Commodity Index Strategy 1.0 and 2.0**: Strategy 1.0's inflation index based on PMI ex - factory prices leads official PPI data by about 10 days but lags behind the commodity futures index by about a month. Strategy 2.0 optimizes Strategy 1.0, and the monthly average of the commodity futures index is highly consistent with the inflation index, providing a leading signal for inflation paths and leading official PPI data by about 40 days in PPI trend information acquisition [10][11]. - **Limitations of Commodity Index Strategy 2.0**: In the deflation phase, the trading signals generated by the strategy are noisy, and the ability to capture phased rebound markets is limited, resulting in missed profit opportunities [14]. - **Formulation Method of Commodity Index Multi - factor Timing Strategy Factors**: - **Commodity Futures Index Trend Timing Factor**: Use the commodity index itself as the price - level factor and combine it with economic index timing [15]. - **Supply Timing Factor**: Use the PMI new order index and PMI production index to represent the supply and demand sides, and combine them with PPI trend prediction [18]. - **Demand Timing Factor**: Similar to the supply timing factor, it combines relevant indicators and PPI trend prediction [20]. - **Supply - Demand Composite Timing Factor**: Based on the weights in the manufacturing PMI index, sum the weighted new order index and production index and normalize them with a total weight of 55% [21]. - **Predicted Supply Timing Factor**: Select 14 high - frequency supply - side indicators to fit the PMI production index, with monthly rolling fitting and historical back - testing starting from July 2021 [23]. - **Predicted Demand Timing Factor**: Select 16 high - frequency demand - side indicators to fit the PMI new order index, with monthly rolling fitting and historical back - testing starting from July 2021 [25]. - **Predicted Supply - Demand Composite Timing Factor**: Weight and sum the predicted supply and demand timing factors and then normalize them with a total weight of 55% [27]. Commodity Index Multi - factor Timing Strategy Net Value Back - testing - Combine the 7 timing factors introduced above with the timing factor in the previous report to construct 8 equal - weighted scoring factors. When the total score of the 8 factors exceeds 4 points, a long signal for the commodity index is triggered. The multi - factor timing strategy shows obvious timing effects on the commodity index, and its timing effect is more sensitive than that of the commodity index timing strategy 2.0, effectively tracking phased rebound markets even in a downward price cycle [29]. Summary - The research first reviews the previous research conclusions that the commodity market performs well during economic prosperity and has developed commodity index timing strategies 1.0 and 2.0. To address the limitations of Strategy 2.0, 7 new timing factors are constructed and combined with the original factor to form an 8 - factor equal - weighted scoring system. The multi - factor timing strategy significantly improves the ability to identify phased rebounds in the downward cycle, with better signal sensitivity and stability [31].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report constructs a fitting prediction system based on high - frequency data for the manufacturing PMI. The historical back - test shows that the directional prediction win - rates of this method for the production, new orders, and comprehensive PMI are over 82%, 62%, and 70% respectively, providing an effective quantitative analysis framework for predicting manufacturing trends [4]. Group 3: Summaries According to the Directory 1. Basic Definition and Components of the Purchasing Managers' Index - **Definition of PMI**: The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an internationally recognized leading indicator for macro - economic monitoring. The manufacturing PMI, with 50% as the "boom - bust watershed", reflects the manufacturing economic situation and is an important barometer for assessing manufacturing prosperity and predicting macro - economic trends [8]. - **Components of Manufacturing PMI**: It is calculated by weighting five key sub - items: new order index (30%), production index (25%), employment index (20%), (100 - supplier delivery time index) (15%), and main raw material inventory index (10%). Demand and supply sub - items have a combined weight of 55% and are the core factors for judging the PMI trend [9][11][12]. 2. Prediction Ideas and Indicator Screening for Manufacturing PMI - **Prediction Ideas**: A fitting prediction system centered on high - frequency data is constructed. The process includes screening high - frequency data affecting supply and demand, fitting the PMI production index and new order index with these data, and then fitting the manufacturing PMI [13][14]. - **High - frequency Indicator Screening**: For the PMI production index, 14 supply - side high - frequency indicators are selected, focusing on the steel and petrochemical industries. For the PMI new order index, high - frequency indicators cover bulk consumption and investment demand, personnel flow, external demand, and intermediate product prices [13][15]. 3. Fitting of the Manufacturing PMI Index - **Fitting of PMI Production Index**: After monthly averaging the selected high - frequency indicators, a regression analysis model is built. The historical prediction win - rate for the direction of the production index is over 82%, and the prediction for January 2026 is 50.36, consistent with the official data's directional judgment [16]. - **Fitting of PMI New Order Index**: Using the same framework, a high - frequency simulation combination with 16 core indicators is built. The historical prediction win - rate for the direction of the new order index is over 62%, and the prediction for January 2026 is 44.27, consistent with the official data's directional judgment [18]. - **Fitting of Manufacturing PMI Index**: After fitting the production and new order indices, the manufacturing PMI is predicted. The historical win - rate for the direction judgment of the manufacturing PMI is 70%, and the prediction for January 2026 is 46.2, consistent with the official data's directional judgment [20]. 4. Summary - The research selects representative daily or weekly indicators from supply and demand sides, simulates the changes of PMI production and new order indices, and finally fits the comprehensive PMI. The system shows high fitting accuracy and reliable prediction ability for the "boom - bust line" direction, enhancing the timeliness and forward - looking of macro - economic monitoring [22].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As of 2025, the global annual ethylene production capacity has exceeded 230 million tons. The ethylene production capacity expansion in the Americas, Middle East, and Europe faces challenges, while Asia will be the core contributor to global ethylene production capacity growth. - Europe, Japan, and South Korea are likely to shut down ethylene production capacity due to high raw material costs, competitive disadvantages under global over - capacity, and regional structural problems. After that, China may become the global core beneficiary and supply mainstay with its multiple advantages [4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 America: Ethane Cracking Project Commissioning Pace May Slow Significantly - In 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in the Americas reached 60.338 million tons/year, with the United States accounting for 77.74% of the regional capacity at 46.907 million tons/year, being the core contributor to future ethylene production capacity growth in the Americas [10]. - The U.S. ethylene process mainly uses ethane. After three stages of development, the U.S. ethane cracking project will see a significant slowdown in the commissioning pace after 2025, mainly because of the decline in ethane supply growth and weakening ethylene market demand. The high - grade and easily - mined resources in core shale gas production areas are decreasing, the single - well production decline is accelerating, and the overall natural gas production has entered a medium - low growth stage. Also, the ethane recovery ratio is approaching the upper limit, and the ethylene demand growth has slowed down [14][16][20]. 3.2 Middle East: Facing Ethane Resource Constraints - As of 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in the Middle East was 35.67 million tons/year, with Saudi Arabia being the largest producer with a capacity of 17.63 million tons/year, accounting for 49.42%. After 2015, the growth rate of ethylene production capacity in the Middle East slowed significantly due to ethane resource constraints. The supply of NGLs in OPEC countries has decreased, and the ethane recovery ratio is saturated. Ethylene production in the Middle East is showing a trend of heavier raw materials [26][29][31]. 3.3 Europe: High Energy Costs and Weak Demand - As of 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in Europe was about 30.8 million tons/year, with Germany being the largest producer with a capacity of 5.82 million tons/year, accounting for 18.87%. European ethylene production has high costs due to a naphtha - based raw material structure, high energy prices, policy constraints, and industrial layout issues. The demand for ethylene in Europe is weak. Since 2021, the demand has declined significantly, and in 2025, the demand was about 23 million tons with a growth rate of only 1.71% [32][36][37]. 3.4 Asia: Will Contribute the Main Incremental Production Capacity Globally - As of 2025, the total ethylene production capacity in Asia reached about 110 million tons/year, with China being the largest producer with a capacity of about 62 million tons/year, accounting for 56.58%. From 2026 - 2027, Asia will still have a large amount of new ethylene production capacity, and China may be the main contributor. In 2026, China may have 9.11 million tons/year of new production capacity put into operation, with a production capacity growth rate of up to 14.69% [44][48][49]. 3.5 Europe, Japan, and South Korea: Likely to Shut Down Ethylene Production Capacity Concentratedly - The shutdown of ethylene production capacity in Europe, Japan, and South Korea is mainly due to high raw material costs, competitive disadvantages under global over - capacity, and regional structural problems. After the shutdown, China may become the global core beneficiary and supply mainstay due to its leading global ethylene production capacity scale, scale - effect of refining and chemical integration plants, diversified raw material routes, and lower costs compared to the single naphtha route in Europe, Japan, and South Korea [50][52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, international oil prices rebounded significantly. The OPEC+ is expected to continue the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in February. Although the traditional demand peak season continues, the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong due to the background of supply - demand surplus. [5][124][127] - The polyester industry chain is affected by the Spring Festival. In February, the demand will decline first and then rebound rapidly. The decline in demand has limited negative impact on prices, and the main influencing factor lies in the supply side. If the supply does not increase significantly, the price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. [8][10] - In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong in February, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the new production capacity of filament and staple fiber will increase in 2026, and the production profits may be under long - term pressure. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol improved in January and still has room for improvement in the future. [128] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In January, the prices of polyester industry chain varieties fluctuated greatly. PX price was relatively weak, while PTA and bottle chips were relatively strong. Ethylene glycol, which performed poorly in 2025, rebounded significantly in January. [16] - **PX**: The PX price was affected by the tight PTA supply since the fourth quarter of 2025. In January 2026, the PX price was weakly correlated with crude oil. The PX futures had a maximum cumulative increase of 23.2% from the lowest point in October 2025 to the highest point in January 2026. [17][19] - **PTA**: In January, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with December 2025. The PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, but the stocking speed was relatively moderate. The PTA futures price increased slightly more than PX from the low point in October 2025 to the high point in January 2026. [20][22][24] - **MEG**: In January, the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased slightly. The oil - based ethylene glycol profit improved slightly, and the coal - based ethylene glycol profit approached the break - even point. The ethylene glycol price rebounded rapidly from a low level. The maximum cumulative increase from the lowest point in late December to the highest point in January was 12%. [25][26] - **Staple Fiber**: In January, the staple fiber operating rate increased significantly. Affected by the price increase of PTA and ethylene glycol, the staple fiber processing fee was poor. The staple fiber price increased, but the increase was slightly lower than the increase in polymerization cost. [27][32] - **Bottle Chips**: In January, the bottle chip operating rate continued to decline, reaching a low level in recent years. Although the domestic bottle chip demand was in the off - season, the supply contraction offset the weak demand, and the bottle chip profit was relatively strong. [33][35] 3.2 OPEC+ Suspends Production Increase Policy, but the Expectation of Supply Surplus Remains - **Geopolitical Instability and Weather Factors**: In early January 2026, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the meeting on February 1 will maintain this policy. Geopolitical factors such as the relations between the US and Venezuela and Iran will affect the crude oil supply expectation, but the impact on supply is weak under the background of global crude oil supply surplus. The cold weather in January affected the oil production in the US and Kazakhstan, but the impact is short - term. [36][37] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for 2026 to 10765000 barrels per day in January, an increase of 23000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA significantly lowered the 2026 demand forecast by 34000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA predicted a supply surplus of 2830000 barrels per day in 2026 and 2080000 barrels per day in 2027. [37][39][42] - **Oil Price Trends**: In January, international oil prices rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of more than 14%. The winter heating demand will continue in February, and oil prices are still expected to rise. However, under the background of supply surplus, attention should be paid to the risk of oil prices falling after rising. [43][50][52] 3.3 Low Operating Rates in Multiple Links, with a Decline Expected in Spring Maintenance - **No New Production Capacity Pressure in the Short - Term, but Many Equipment Maintenance Plans**: In the first quarter of 2026, there are no new production plans for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The operating rate changes will affect the supply. The spring maintenance of petrochemical equipment around March usually has a greater impact on the operating rates of PX and PTA. Currently, the PX operating rate is high, and the PTA operating rate is low. [53][54][61] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Expected to Decline, and Import Cost May Rise**: In 2026, there are three new ethylene glycol production devices planned to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. The import cost may rise due to the increase in natural gas prices. [69][71][79] 3.4 Demand Affected by Seasonal Factors, Polyester Operating Rate to Decline First and Then Rebound - **Demand Fluctuations Concentrated in February, with Good Long - Term Demand**: In January 2026, the demand for the polyester industry chain continued to decline. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound rapidly. In the long - run, the industry chain demand is generally good. [80] - **PTA Expected to Stock Moderately, Ethylene Glycol Inventory Still under Pressure to Increase**: In January, the PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase, but the stocking speed slowed down. In February, the PTA stocking speed may accelerate, but it is expected to be moderate. The ethylene glycol inventory still has the pressure to increase, but the decline in the operating rate may offset the stocking pressure. [91][92][94] - **Poor Profits of Polyester Products, Difficult to Improve in the Short - Term**: In January, the polymerization cost increased, and the demand for polyester products first increased and then decreased. The processing fees of filament and staple fiber were poor, while the processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly. In the short - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber are expected to be relatively poor, and the pressure on the profits of filament and staple fiber is still high in the long - term. [95][96][97] - **Seasonal Stocking of Filament, Supply Decline to Offset Stocking Pressure**: In 2025, the export volumes of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and staple fiber increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the filament inventory showed a differentiation trend, and the stocking situation will continue in February. The staple fiber inventory was relatively good in January, but there is still stocking pressure in February. [101][103][109] - **Greater Fluctuations in Loom Operating Rate, and the Downstream Prosperity May Increase**: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and looms will decline to the lowest point, and then rebound rapidly after the festival. The average operating rate of looms in 2026 is expected to be higher than that in 2024. [112][113] 3.5 Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Expected to Increase, and the Export Market May Improve - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand in 2025, Expected to Accelerate in 2026**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, and the growth rate in December was 0.9%. The domestic retail sales of textile and apparel in December 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year. With the implementation of domestic demand - promoting policies, the domestic demand for textile and apparel is expected to grow faster in 2026. [118][120] - **Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's total export value increased by 5.5% year - on - year. The total export value of textile and apparel decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, with textile exports increasing by 0.5% and clothing exports decreasing by 5%. Affected by the US tariff policy, clothing exports decreased in 2025, and are expected to recover in 2026. [121][122] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In January 2026, international oil prices strengthened. PX and PTA prices were weak at the beginning of the oil price rebound due to the decline in polyester industry chain demand. The sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices boosted the ethylene glycol price. In January, the PX operating rate was stable, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased, the ethylene glycol average monthly operating rate decreased slightly, and the polyester operating rate continued to decline. The PTA inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase. The profits of PX and PTA were good, and the profits of filament were poor. [124][125][126] - **Outlook**: In February 2026, the OPEC+ may continue to suspend crude oil production increase. The traditional demand peak season continues, but the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong. The polyester industry chain demand will decline due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound. The price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. The ethylene glycol inventory may continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline in the operating rate. In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve. In the long - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber may be under pressure. [127][128]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the end of Q4 2025, the total positions of public - funds in stock index futures decreased after two consecutive quarters of growth. The long positions were 24,202 contracts, a 6.97% decrease from the previous quarter, with a market value of 32.569 billion yuan, down 4.92% quarter - on - quarter. The short positions were 5,651 contracts, a 12.78% decrease, with a market value of 8.138 billion yuan, down 12.75% quarter - on - quarter. The net long positions were 18,551 contracts, a decrease of 987 contracts from the end of the previous quarter, and the net long market value was 24.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 496 million yuan from the previous quarter [2][41]. - The long - position reductions were mainly concentrated in the IH and IF contracts, with the number of contracts decreasing by 5.1% and 28.02% respectively. The short - position reductions were mainly in the IM contract, with a 13.4% decrease, indicating that public - funds were more optimistic about small - and medium - cap index futures in the future and more cautious about large - cap index futures [2][41]. - The number of participating products was 433, slightly less than at the end of the previous quarter. The number of index - enhanced products increased the most, from 131 to 144. Meanwhile, the number of partial - stock hybrid and flexible - allocation products decreased, from 42 and 43 to 37 and 34 respectively [2][41]. - In terms of the overall participation market value, most products' participation market values decreased to varying degrees. Among long positions, the passive index - type products decreased the most significantly, from 29.5 billion yuan to 28.05 billion yuan. The index - enhanced products, although the number of participating products increased significantly, did not see a synchronous increase in participation market value, with long positions decreasing from 3.265 billion yuan to 3.17 billion yuan. Among short positions, the participation market value of neutral products decreased significantly, from 3.214 billion yuan to 2.38 billion yuan. The simultaneous decrease in long and short positions of stock index futures indicated an increase in divergence regarding future index trends [2][42]. - A total of 61 public - fund companies participated in stock index futures. The total positions of the top ten managers reached 25,845 contracts, with a total market value of 35.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.2% and 6.4% respectively from the end of the previous quarter. Among them, Harvest Fund and China Asset Management reduced their positions most significantly, with significant long - position reductions of 2,391 and 1,382 contracts respectively in stock index futures [2][42]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Overall Situation - Stock Index Futures Positions Begin to Fall - As of the end of Q4 2025, public - funds held a total of 29,853 contracts of stock index futures, a decrease of 8.13% from the end of the previous quarter. The decline in positions mainly came from short - position adjustments. Specifically, long positions were 24,202 contracts, a 6.97% decrease, and short positions were 5,651 contracts, a 12.78% decrease [6]. - In terms of position market value, public - funds held a total stock index futures market value of 40.707 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.59% from the previous quarter. Long - position market value was 32.569 billion yuan, a 4.92% decrease, and short - position market value was 8.138 billion yuan, a 12.75% decrease [6]. - In terms of net positions, public - funds held a net long position of 18,551 contracts, a decrease of 987 contracts from the end of the previous quarter, and the net long market value was 24.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 496 million yuan from the previous quarter [7]. - In terms of participating entities, 61 public - fund companies participated in stock index futures, 2 more than at the end of the previous quarter. The number of participating products was 433, 1 less than at the end of the previous quarter. Specifically, 59 companies participated in long positions of stock index futures, 26 in short positions. The number of fund products with long positions was 372, and the number of short - position products was 62. The number of long - position products began to decline after six consecutive quarters of growth [8][11]. 3.2 Position Variety and Month Analysis 3.2.1 Position Variety Indicates Public - Funds Are More Optimistic about Small - and Medium - Cap Index Futures in the Future - In terms of position variety, the positions of each variety of public - funds continued to diverge this quarter. Long positions in IH and IF decreased to varying degrees, with the number of contracts decreasing by 524 and 1,545 respectively, a 5.1% and 28.02% decrease. IC and IM had a slight increase, with the number of contracts increasing by 193 and 61 respectively, a 3.07% and 1.54% increase. At the same time, short positions in all four varieties decreased to a certain extent, and the reduction in IM was the most obvious, with 532 contracts, a 13.4% decrease. The main short - position variety was still concentrated in the IM contract, accounting for 62.55% of the total short - hedge ratio. The reduction in long positions of IH and IF indicated that public - funds were more optimistic about small - and medium - cap index futures in the first quarter and more cautious about large - cap index futures [11]. - Specifically, the total position of the IF contract was 11,193 contracts, with long positions of 9,736 contracts, a 5.1% decrease, and short positions of 1,457 contracts, a 12.12% decrease. The position of the IH contract was 4,122 contracts, with long positions of 3,969 contracts, a 28% decrease, and short positions of 153 contracts, a 34.9% decrease. The position of the IC contract was 7,084 contracts, with long positions of 6,480 contracts, a 3.07% increase, and short positions of 604 contracts, a 2.1% decrease. The position of the IM contract was 7,454 contracts, with long positions of 4,017 contracts, a 1.54% increase, and short positions of 3,437 contracts, a 13.4% decrease [18]. 3.2.2 The Proportion of Short Positions in the Current Month Decreased Slightly - In terms of the position contract months, the proportion of public - funds' short positions in the current - month contract decreased this quarter, but the proportion of long positions in the quarterly - month contract was still at a historical high. This indicated that although the futures market basis had converged significantly, there were still many public - funds using quarterly - month contracts for long - position substitution, and the futures market basis might remain at a low level for some time [19]. - Specifically, the proportions of long positions in the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts were 14.98%, 1.11%, 78.72%, and 5.18% respectively, an increase of 0.6, 0.5, 0.4, and - 1.38 percentage points respectively from the end of the previous quarter. The proportions of short positions were 27.35%, 0.4%, 56.1%, and 16.12% respectively, an increase of - 6, - 1.1, - 2.9, and 10 percentage points respectively from the end of the previous quarter [19]. 3.3 Position Situations of Various Fund Products 3.3.1 The Hedging Market Value of Neutral Products Decreased Significantly - In terms of the position situations of various fund products, the number of public - fund products participating in stock index futures decreased slightly this quarter, with a total of 433. Among them, the number of index - enhanced products increased the most, from 131 to 144. Meanwhile, the number of partial - stock hybrid and flexible - allocation products decreased, from 42 and 43 to 37 and 34 respectively [21]. - In terms of the overall participation market value, most products' participation market values decreased to varying degrees. Among long positions, the passive index - type products decreased the most significantly, from 29.5 billion yuan to 28.05 billion yuan. The index - enhanced products, although the number of participating products increased significantly, did not see a synchronous increase in participation market value, with long positions decreasing from 3.265 billion yuan to 3.17 billion yuan. Among short positions, the participation market value of neutral products decreased significantly, from 3.214 billion yuan to 2.38 billion yuan. The simultaneous decrease in long and short positions of stock index futures indicated an increase in divergence regarding future index trends [22]. 3.3.2 The Short Positions of Small - and Medium - Cap Index Futures Decreased Significantly - In terms of the stock index futures varieties held by different products, on the one hand, the passive index - type products, which were the main force in public - funds' long positions, showed a decrease in IH and IF long positions and an increase in IC and IM long positions this quarter. The long positions of IH and IF decreased from 4.9 billion yuan and 13 billion yuan to 3.594 billion yuan and 12.17 billion yuan respectively, while the long positions of IC and IM increased from 7.355 billion yuan and 4.166 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan and 4.287 billion yuan respectively. On the other hand, due to the continuous convergence of the basis of IC and IM, the long positions of index - enhanced products in IC and IM decreased slightly [33]. - In terms of the types of public - funds' short positions, traditional neutral products, partial - stock hybrid, and flexible - allocation products all had varying degrees of decrease in short positions, and the decrease in IM was more obvious. The increase in long positions and decrease in short positions in small - and medium - cap index futures indicated that public - funds were still relatively optimistic about the medium - term market of IC and IM [33]. 3.4 The Total Positions of the Top Ten Managers Begin to Fall - This quarter, the total positions of the top ten managers reached 25,845 contracts, with a total market value of 35.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.2% and 6.4% respectively from the end of the previous quarter. Among them, Harvest Fund and China Asset Management reduced their positions most significantly, with significant long - position reductions of 2,391 and 1,382 contracts respectively in stock index futures. Specifically, the long positions of the top ten managers were 20,900 contracts, with a long - position market value of 27.84 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.7% and 5.5% respectively from the end of the previous quarter. The short positions were 4,945 contracts, with a short - position market value of 7.207 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.07% and 10.5% respectively from the end of the previous quarter [35]. 3.5 Summary - Overall, this quarter, the total positions of public - funds in stock index futures decreased after two consecutive quarters of growth. Specifically, long positions were 24,202 contracts, a 6.97% decrease, with a market value of 32.569 billion yuan, a 4.92% decrease. Short positions were 5,651 contracts, a 12.78% decrease, with a market value of 8.138 billion yuan, a 12.75% decrease. The net long positions were 18,551 contracts, a decrease of 987 contracts from the end of the previous quarter, and the net long market value was 24.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 496 million yuan from the previous quarter. Long - position reductions were mainly concentrated in the IH and IF contracts, with the number of contracts decreasing by 5.1% and 28.02% respectively. Short - position reductions were mainly in the IM contract, with a 13.4% decrease, indicating that public - funds were more optimistic about small - and medium - cap index futures in the first quarter and more cautious about large - cap index futures [41]. - In terms of the number of participating products, the number of participating products was 433, 1 less than at the end of the previous quarter. The number of index - enhanced products increased the most, from 131 to 144. Meanwhile, the number of partial - stock hybrid and flexible - allocation products decreased, from 42 and 43 to 37 and 34 respectively [41]. - In terms of the overall participation market value, most products' participation market values decreased to varying degrees. Among long positions, the passive index - type products decreased the most significantly, from 29.5 billion yuan to 28.05 billion yuan. The index - enhanced products, although the number of participating products increased significantly, did not see a synchronous increase in participation market value, with long positions decreasing from 3.265 billion yuan to 3.17 billion yuan. Among short positions, the participation market value of neutral products decreased significantly, from 3.214 billion yuan to 2.38 billion yuan. The simultaneous decrease in long and short positions of stock index futures indicated an increase in divergence regarding future index trends [42]. - In terms of participating entities, a total of 61 public - fund companies participated in stock index futures. The total positions of the top ten managers reached 25,845 contracts, with a total market value of 35.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.2% and 6.4% respectively from the end of the previous quarter. Among them, Harvest Fund and China Asset Management reduced their positions most significantly, with significant long - position reductions of 2,391 and 1,382 contracts respectively in stock index futures [42].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The U.S. has postponed imposing tariffs on critical mineral imports, and Shanghai copper prices have weakened [1] 2. Key Points by Category Price Data - After the contract change of Shanghai copper, the copper spot has turned to a discount, and the spot market trading is sluggish [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen on a week - on - week basis [13] Fundamental Data - The average weekly price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.12/ton to -$46.53/ton on a week - on - week basis and remained low [15] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 54.7 million tons, an increase of 11.9 million tons on a week - on - week basis and lower on a year - on - year basis [18] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has widened [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease on a month - on - month basis but increase on a year - on - year basis [23] - From January to December, the cumulative imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 5.321 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.4% [26] - This week, the spot and bonded area inventories of electrolytic copper increased on a week - on - week basis [27] - LME copper inventories have increased, and COMEX copper inventories continue to accumulate [29] - Driven by post - holiday复产, the operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded this week [30] - From January 1st to 11th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 38% on a year - on - year basis [31] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline; the export tax refund for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [32] - The production schedules of household air conditioners in January and February are differentiated, with the cumulative production basically flat [34] Macroeconomic Data - The central bank has lowered the policy tool interest rate by 25 basis points and stated that there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [36] - The core CPI growth rate in the U.S. in December was lower than expected, with a year - on - year increase of 2.6%, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year, in line with expectations [38] - The front - runner for the Federal Reserve Chairman position has changed, and Trump has said that he hopes Hassett will continue to serve as a White House advisor [41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The geopolitical disturbances are intensifying, there are concerns about resource security, and the Shanghai copper market remains strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Impact Factor Analysis - **Macro (Positive)**: In 2026, the central bank will increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts, and flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. The US president is discussing a plan to acquire Greenland, including military options, and has instructed the purchase of $200 billion in US mortgage - backed bonds. China's December CPI year - on - year increase reached a 34 - month high, and PPI increased month - on - month for three consecutive months. The US added 50,000 non - farm jobs in December, falling short of expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%. The January Michigan consumer confidence index reached a four - month high [6]. - **Demand (Negative)**: Affected by holidays and high prices, the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to be under pressure, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines. The transaction area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities last week decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The production plan of household air conditioners in January increased by 11% compared with last year's actual performance, but the production plans in January and February were different due to the Spring Festival, with the cumulative production basically flat. The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market from December 1st to 31st increased by 7% year - on - year. The overall production plan of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [6]. - **Supply (Neutral)**: According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrates this week was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons and at a low level compared with the same period last year. Codelco's copper production in 2025 was 1.332 million tons, a slight increase compared with 2024. Rio Tinto and Glencore are conducting preliminary consultations on a potential business merger. According to SMM, the domestic electrolytic copper production in December increased by 6.8% month - on - month and 7.54% year - on - year, mainly due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled smelters and the increase in the production of scrap - produced anode copper. The electrolytic copper production in January is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [6]. - **Inventory (Negative)**: This week, the spot and bonded - area inventories of electrolytic copper increased month - on - month. LME copper stocks decreased, while COMEX copper stocks increased. According to Steel Union, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper on Thursday was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons compared with Monday and 37,600 tons compared with last Thursday; the bonded - area inventory was 115,200 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons compared with Monday and 6,800 tons compared with last Thursday. The LME copper inventory on Friday was 138,975 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,350 tons; the COMEX copper inventory on Friday was 517,999 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,158 short tons [6]. - **Specific Production (Neutral)**: On Friday, the spot premiums and discounts of premium copper, flat - grade copper, and wet - process copper were 30, - 80, and - 175 yuan/ton respectively. Due to the high price level and weak spot copper transactions, the premiums and discounts were under pressure. The spread between the February and March contracts of Shanghai copper closed at - 170 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, continuing to be under pressure. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened slightly week - on - week [6]. 3.2 Price Data - The high price level led to weak spot copper transactions, and the premiums and discounts were under pressure [11]. - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened slightly week - on - week [13]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week decreased by $0.43/ton month - on - month to - $45.41/ton, still at a low level [15]. - The port inventory of copper concentrates this week was 428,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68,000 tons and at a low level compared with the same period last year [18]. - The price difference between refined copper and scrap copper strengthened [20]. - The domestic electrolytic copper production in December increased by 6.8% month - on - month and 7.54% year - on - year, and the production in January is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [23]. - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8%, and exported 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.8% [26]. - This week, the spot and bonded - area inventories of electrolytic copper increased month - on - month, LME copper stocks decreased, and COMEX copper stocks increased [27][28]. - Affected by holidays and high prices, the operating rate of refined copper rods continued to be under pressure, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year declines [31]. - The retail volume of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market from December 1st to 31st increased by 7% year - on - year [32]. - The overall production plan of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline, and the export tax rebate for photovoltaic value - added tax will be cancelled starting from April [33]. - The production plans of household air conditioners in January and February were different due to the Spring Festival, with the cumulative production basically flat [35]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog service industry PMI in December was 52, remaining in the expansion range, but new export orders fell back into contraction [37]. - The US January Michigan consumer confidence index reached a four - month high, and inflation expectations were relatively stable [40]. - "New Fed Wire" said that the December non - farm employment data paved the way for maintaining the status quo, and traders expect it is almost impossible to make a change in January [41].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In Q1 2026, OPEC+ suspends crude oil production increase, and demand is in the peak season, so international oil prices are expected to strengthen. However, if production increase resumes, it will still suppress oil prices. The market is at an important node, and future oil price fluctuations are expected to widen [4][55][127] - In the polyester industry chain, demand will decline due to the Spring Festival in Q1 2026, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will first decrease and then increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, and the inventory accumulation rate is mainly affected by the operating rate. The price decline in Q1 is considered a buying opportunity, and the weak ethylene glycol price in 2025 is also expected to strengthen [10][82][127] - Currently, the profits in the entire industry chain are mainly concentrated in the PX segment, and the profit situation of polyester products is generally poor. This situation is expected to continue in Q1 2026, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the pressure on profit decline during the demand decline [128] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In Q4 2025, the prices of PX and PTA first fell and then rose, and finally increased slightly for the whole year. Ethylene glycol prices showed a continuous downward trend, with a significant decline in December. Short - fiber and bottle - chip prices first fell and then rose, but still declined for the whole year [16] - PX: In Q4 2025, the supply and demand situation was not good, but the price increased due to the tight supply and continuous inventory reduction of PTA. The operating rate was high, with little room for further improvement [17] - PTA: Since H2 2025, the operating rate has been lower than the previous year, especially in Q4. In November, many devices were shut down for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in production and inventory. The price increased significantly in December, and the futures price increased by about 4.6% for the whole year [20][21][22] - MEG: In 2025, new production capacity was put into operation, and the operating rate increased, resulting in a significant increase in supply. In Q4, the supply was loose, and the price continued to fall, with an annual decline of more than 20% [24][27] - Short - fiber: There was no new device put into operation in the past two years. In Q4, the operating rate was generally stable, and the output increased year - on - year. The domestic consumption demand was weak, and the price first fell and then rose, with an annual decline of 4.6% [29][30] - Bottle - chip: In 2025, the production capacity expansion slowed down, but there was still supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the cumulative output increased by 7% year - on - year. The export volume increased significantly, but the domestic demand growth was limited, and the price fell by 2.3% for the whole year [31][33][36] II. OPEC+ Suspends Crude Oil Production Increase in Q1, but the Expectation of Supply Glut Remains - Geopolitical conflicts occur frequently, but the expectation of interfering with crude oil production is not strong. In 2025, OPEC+ changed from production cut to production increase, and decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. However, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in March [37] - The EIA continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast in 2025, while the demand adjustment was relatively small. The global crude oil supply became looser, and the supply glut increased in 2025 and 2026 [37][38][40] - In Q1, the heating oil demand is strong, which supports the refinery operating rate. The international oil price is near the low point in recent years, and the current is an important node for oil price fluctuations, with expected wider future fluctuations [45] III. Spring Maintenance in Q1, the Operating Rate of Some Links Will Change Significantly - There is no new device production plan for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in Q1 2026. The PX operating rate is expected to decline significantly due to the spring maintenance, while the impact on the PTA operating rate is expected to be small [56] - Ethylene glycol has many new device production plans in 2026, but there is no plan in Q1. The production profit is poor, and the domestic output may decline [70][73][80] IV. Demand is Affected by Seasonal Factors, and the Polyester Operating Rate Will First Decrease and Then Increase - In Q1, the demand will fluctuate greatly and decline overall due to the Spring Festival. The polyester operating rate will first decrease and then increase, and the output is expected to decline significantly [82][85] - Affected by the decline in demand for polyester raw materials, the inventory will increase. PTA and ethylene glycol have inventory accumulation pressure, but the negative impact of ethylene glycol inventory accumulation on price in Q1 is expected to weaken [92][95] - The profits of polyester products are generally poor and difficult to improve in Q1. The profits of long - filament and short - fiber are under greater downward pressure, especially during the demand decline [96][98][100] - The long - filament inventory has pressure to increase rapidly in Q1, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is relatively small before the new device is put into operation [107][109] - The operating rate of looms will fluctuate greatly in Q1, and the average operating rate is expected to be higher than that in 2025. The output of yarn and grey cloth is generally low, and the inventory change is relatively small [110][112][113] V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - The growth rate of domestic textile and apparel demand is not high and will maintain a low - growth trend. The growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales is low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel retail sales fluctuates [115][118] - The global economic and trade relations have eased, which is beneficial to the recovery of textile and apparel exports. Although China's textile and apparel exports declined in 2025, they are expected to recover in 2026 [119][120][121] VI. Summary and Outlook - Summary: In Q4 2025, international oil prices continued to be weak, and the polyester industry chain (except ethylene glycol) first fell and then rebounded. The supply - demand contradictions in some links of the polyester industry chain were prominent, and the prices of PTA and ethylene glycol diverged significantly. The profits in the industry chain were concentrated in the PX segment [123][124][126] - Outlook: In Q1 2026, international oil prices are expected to strengthen, and the demand in the polyester industry chain will decline due to the Spring Festival. The price decline is considered a buying opportunity, and the ethylene glycol price is expected to strengthen. The current profit situation in the industry chain is expected to continue, and the closer to the downstream, the greater the profit decline pressure [127][128]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Ethylene is the most important basic organic raw material in the chemical industry, known as the "mother of the petrochemical industry." Its production capacity, process routes, and downstream structure reflect a country's petrochemical development level [4]. - Ethylene production is mainly through steam cracking, with different raw materials leading to different process routes. Downstream applications are extensive, mainly in polyethylene, ethylene glycol, styrene, and PVC, and the demand is closely related to the macro - economy and industry cycles [4][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Ethylene Basics - **Definition**: Ethylene is the simplest olefin with the formula C₂H₄ and structure CH₂ = CH₂. It is an important chemical raw material and a natural plant - ripening hormone [8]. - **Physical and Chemical Properties** - **Physical Properties**: Colorless, slightly sweet - smelling gas at normal temperature and pressure; has a low melting point of - 169.2°C and a boiling point of - 103.7°C; less dense than air; difficult to dissolve in water but easy in organic solvents; highly volatile and flammable, with an explosion limit of 2.7% - 36.0% [10][11][15][16]. - **Chemical Properties**: Chemically active due to the C = C double - bond, mainly showing addition, oxidation, and polymerization reactions [17]. - **Storage and Transportation** - **Storage**: Commonly stored in low - temperature liquid form using double - layer or full - containment cryogenic storage tanks at about - 104°C; can also be stored in pressurized gaseous form in steel pressure vessels or spherical tanks [25][26]. - **Transportation**: Mainly transported by pipeline in large - scale plants and chemical parks; for long - distance or international transport, it is usually in low - temperature liquid form; high - pressure gaseous transport is used for short - distance and small - batch transport [27][29][30]. II. Ethylene Industry Chain - **Production Process** - **Mainstream Process: Hydrocarbon Steam Cracking**: Accounts for over 90% of global ethylene production. Raw materials include light (ethane, propane, butane), medium (naphtha), and heavy (AGO, VGO) types. The process involves raw material pre - treatment, cracking reaction, quenching and heat recovery, compression and purification, and low - temperature distillation separation [35][36][38]. - **Auxiliary Processes**: Catalytic cracking has a lower reaction temperature and is suitable for high - propylene demand scenarios; methanol - to - olefins (MTO) does not depend on petroleum resources and is suitable for areas rich in coal and natural gas [46][47]. - **Global Ethylene Production Process Pattern and Characteristics** - **Global Pattern**: In 2025, ethane cracking accounted for 39.27% and naphtha cracking 36.86%, together over 75%. Other processes play a supplementary role [51]. - **Trends**: The global ethylene process shows a trend of increasing light - hydrocarbon use, decreasing heavy - raw material use, and coexistence of multiple routes. There are significant regional differences based on resource endowments [57]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Polyethylene**: Consumes over 50% of ethylene, including LDPE, HDPE, and LLDPE, with different production processes and applications [68]. - **Styrene**: Produced mainly by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation. It is mainly used in synthetic polymers and rubbers, and its demand is sensitive to the manufacturing industry cycle [71]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Produced by ethylene oxidation - hydration globally, and coal - based process is developed in China. Over 80% is used in the polyester industry [74]. - **Ethylene Oxide**: Produced by direct ethylene oxidation. It is mainly used to produce ethylene glycol and is also used in other fields [77]. - **PVC**: Produced by ethylene and calcium carbide methods, with products used in hard and soft goods [78]. - **EVA**: Produced by copolymerizing ethylene and vinyl acetate. Low - VA EVA is used in foaming materials, and high - VA EVA is used in photovoltaic encapsulation films, etc. [82].