Guo Lian Qi Huo

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2025年政府工作报告解读:多维突破稳增长
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-03-07 03:43
宏观|专题报告 2025 年政府工作报告解读 2025 年 3 月 5 日 国联期货研究所 证监许可[2011]1773 号 王娜 从业资格证号:F3055965 投资咨询证书号:Z0001999 吴昕玥 从业资格证号:F03124129 多维突破稳增长 分析师: 2025 年政府工作报告出台正值我国经济复苏基础尚不稳固、外部 环境更趋复杂严峻之际。在此背景下,报告确立了"稳中求进"总基调, 核心目标是统筹高质量发展与安全,通过政策协同发力实现经济质的 有效提升和量的合理增长,为"十四五"圆满收官与"十五五"良好开局 奠定基础。 联系人: 报告在延续"稳预期、激活力"政策主线的同时,更加强调政策工 具的主动性与结构性突破。通过"财政货币双宽松+产业创新深改革+ 民生保障强托底"的政策组合,既着力破解短期需求不足困境,又为 中长期高质量发展构建制度性框架,展现出在复杂变局中驾驭经济航 向的战略定力。 相关研究报告: 股指衍生品:估值修复,磨 底等待启动契机 股指衍生品:稳增长政策渐 明朗 期待基本面拐点 【专题报告】国联期货股指 分红观察(一):分红对股 指基差的影响 【专题报告】美国通胀拐点 将现,加息临近尾 ...
风格择时系列专题报告(一):利率周期、期限利差周期和信用利差周期风格轮动择时策略
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-01-26 02:36
Market Style Definition - Growth style is associated with high-growth potential sectors like pharmaceuticals and technology, while value style is linked to more defensive sectors like finance[7]. - The CSI 300 Index leans towards value style with nearly one-third market capitalization in finance, whereas the CSI 1000 Index shows a diverse sector distribution with 27% in information technology, indicating a stronger growth style[8]. Style Rotation Framework - In the interest rate cycle, holding growth stocks is favorable during declining rates, while value stocks are better during rising rates due to their defensive characteristics[16]. - The term spread cycle indicates that when economic changes are more pronounced than liquidity changes, small-cap growth stocks perform better; conversely, large-cap growth stocks excel when liquidity changes dominate[18]. - In the credit spread cycle, rising credit spreads favor large-cap value stocks due to their stronger financial stability, while falling spreads benefit small-cap growth stocks by easing their financing conditions[19]. Factor Timing Backtesting - Backtesting results show that the dual interest rate strategy effectively timed the market during years when value and growth styles outperformed, particularly in 2017 and 2020 for value, and 2019 and 2021 for growth[24]. - The backtesting from December 31, 2015, to January 17, 2025, indicates that the term spread factor has a notable ability to time styles effectively[28]. Summary of Findings - The report establishes a clear distinction between the CSI 300 Index (value style) and the CSI 1000 Index (growth style) based on industry composition and growth/value factors[30]. - The constructed style rotation models based on interest rates, term spreads, and credit spreads provide insights into market behavior and investment strategies[30].