Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamental support for copper is limited, and attention should be paid to the macro - driving factors next week [1] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The center of the Shanghai copper futures market has moved up, the sentiment of spot trading has weakened, and the premium is under pressure [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation this week is limited [12] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index this week increased by $0.82 per ton week - on - week to - $42.63 per ton, still negative [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports this week decreased by 169,700 tons week - on - week to 560,900 tons [17] - The spread between refined and scrap copper has strengthened [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in July is expected to continue to rise [20] - There is an import inversion of copper [21] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week this week, while the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [24] - The LME copper inventory continued to increase, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and with the upward movement of the Shanghai copper center, new orders and提货量 decreased. The operating rate is expected to continue to decline next week [27] - From July 1st to 20th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 23% year - on - year and decreased by 12% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in July decreased month - on - month, and the overall production plan for August has limited month - on - month change [33] - According to Aowei Cloud Network, the production plan for household air conditioners in August is 1.1155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1% [35] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing increment in June was 4.2 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 2.24 trillion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap narrowed [37] - The US Markit manufacturing PMI in July fell back into contraction, but the overall business activity expanded at the fastest pace since December [40] - Attention should be paid to the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting next week [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China needs to maintain strategic focus in the second half of the year, with an unchanged policy expansion and a focus on boosting domestic demand. The July Politburo meeting is expected to introduce policies in areas such as central government leveraging, improving people's livelihoods, promoting consumption, infrastructure construction, stabilizing the real - estate and stock markets, and addressing over - competition [2]. - The US - Japan trade agreement sets a tariff negotiation template. In the US - EU and US - China trade negotiations, the former may follow the US - Japan model, while the latter will likely focus on consolidating previous agreements [5][7]. - The increase in US average global tariff rates will likely lead to higher - than - expected inflation, causing the Fed to adjust its interest - rate cut plans, with a more cautious and smaller - scale approach [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observations 1.1 Focus on the Policy Continuity and Long - term Linkage of the July Politburo Meeting - China faces challenges both externally and internally. The supply - side has issues of "excess stock" and "insufficient increment," and the demand - side suffers from "shrinking external demand" and "weak domestic demand." Policy should focus on addressing over - competition and promoting industrial capacity upgrades, and boost domestic demand through multiple means [2]. - The July Politburo Meeting may announce policies in areas such as expanding domestic demand, accelerating infrastructure, stabilizing the real - estate market, and strengthening anti - over - competition measures. It is also an important node for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [3][4]. 1.2 US - Japan Agreement Reached, Preliminary Model for Trade Negotiation Tariffs Formed - The US is using tariffs as a bargaining chip to achieve multi - dimensional goals. The US - Japan agreement sets a template for future trade negotiations [5]. - In the US - EU trade negotiation, the EU is divided, and the negotiation may follow the US - Japan model. In the US - China trade negotiation, the priority is to "suspend tariff escalation," and the upcoming meeting in Sweden will likely consolidate previous agreements [7]. 1.3 Tariff Rates Higher than Expected, Fed's Interest - Rate Cuts "Scaled Down and More Cautious" - The average US global tariff rate is expected to reach 15% - 21%, higher than the pre - Trump level and market expectations, which will likely lead to higher inflation and force the Fed to adjust its interest - rate cut plans [8]. - Trump's intervention complicates the Fed's decision - making. The Fed's future interest - rate cuts may be more cautious and of a smaller scale, and a rate cut in September is likely [10]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The one - year and five - year LPR remain unchanged. The central bank has a net capital injection this week. The government is implementing a subsidy project for the elderly, and measures are being taken to address over - competition in the market [11]. - The growth rate of real - estate loans has rebounded. The "Housing Rental Regulations" will be implemented. China and the US will restart trade talks in Sweden, and China has put forward three proposals for China - EU relations [11]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the initial jobless claims decreased, consumer confidence changed little, inflation expectations declined, and the leading indicator slightly dropped [13]. - In the Eurozone, business activity growth reached an 11 - month high, and corporate inflation expectations decreased. Germany plans large - scale investment, and the EU may cooperate with Japan in rare - earth mining [13]. - In Japan, the ruling coalition lost control of the Senate. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and South Korea is considering concessions to avoid tariffs [13][16]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - There are various important economic data releases in the US next week, including housing price indices, consumer confidence, GDP, and employment data. China will release the Caixin Manufacturing PMI [17].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The domestic sugar market is affected by multiple factors. Although there is short - term upward momentum due to the positive macro - atmosphere, the 09 contract is expected to decline from a high level later due to factors such as a significant drop in demand, potential continuous import volume increase, and strong industrial hedging forces [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: As of the end of May 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season in China was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. In the central - southern region of Brazil, the cumulative crushing volume decreased by 14.06% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 14.25% year - on - year. The impact on price is considered neutral [9]. - **Demand**: Currently, the price of processed sugar is stable. Yunnan sugar has a cost - performance advantage over processed sugar and has better transactions than Guangxi sugar, but the overall market transaction is average, with a downward impact on price [9]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, slightly higher than the average of the past five years. As of July 18, the total number of registered sugar warrants decreased compared to last week, with a downward impact on price [9]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The impact on price is considered neutral [9]. - **Basis**: The quotes of sugar - making groups in Guangxi and Yunnan have changed slightly, and the quotes of processed sugar factories are stable. The market maintains a demand - based procurement rhythm, with a neutral impact on price [9]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has increased slightly, and the out - of - quota import profit remains flat, with a downward impact on price [9]. - **Macro**: There are expectations of China's CPI and PPI bottoming out. The market anticipates an increase in incremental policies, especially as the end - of - year policy - making meetings approach, which may drive the market up, with an upward impact on price [9]. - **Strategy**: Gradually arrange 09 short positions at high prices. Although the domestic market may still have upward momentum in the short - term, the 09 contract is expected to decline from a high level later [9]. 3.2 This Week's Sugar Market News - **Brazil's Production Data**: In the second half of June, in the central - southern region of Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume decreased by 12.86% year - on - year, and the sugar production decreased by 12.98% year - on - year. From the start of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of June, the cumulative crushing volume decreased by 14.06% year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production decreased by 14.25% year - on - year [14]. - **Sugar Use in Beverages**: Trump claimed that Coca - Cola would use sucrose in its US - market beverages, and Coca - Cola thanked him and promised to share more details. PepsiCo said it would use sucrose if consumers demand it [15]. 3.3 Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: In the 2024 - 2025 period, the domestic sugar production was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [20]. - **Domestic Sales**: As of the end of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.34%, and the cumulative sales rate was 74.11%. As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69% [24][27]. - **Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports**: The report mentions relevant data sources but does not elaborate on specific data [30]. - **Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders**: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [34]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [38]. - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity**: As of July 18, the total number of registered sugar warrants was 21,477, a decrease from last week's 22,850 [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2025, the A - share market showed an interval - oscillating pattern with significant structural differentiation. The market style shifted from traditional core assets to growth - type targets. - Policy support is an important factor for the market, but the economic recovery still faces internal and external challenges. The full recovery of economic endogenous momentum requires stronger policy support. - In the short term, the market will continue to oscillate. It is advisable to reduce long positions in small - and medium - cap stocks on rallies. For empty - position investors, it is recommended to be patient and focus on layout opportunities when the index pulls back to the lower edge of the interval. In the medium - and long - term, allocation should be cautious, with emphasis on tracking the progress of profit repair and policy effects [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1股指延续区间震荡态势 - **行情回顾**: From the beginning of the year to mid - March, the A - share market oscillated upward due to the acceleration of the AI industry and policy benefits. Then it adjusted under the impact of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs". From mid - April to the end of the year, it regained its upward momentum due to domestic policy support and the easing of Sino - US trade frictions. Structurally, small - and medium - cap stock index futures were more elastic than large - cap stocks, and the CSI 1000 led the gains several times in the first half of the year [8]. - **行业表现**: In the first half of 2025, industries showed significant differentiation. Precious - metal - related non - ferrous metals and high - dividend bank sectors led the gains, while coal, food and beverage, and real estate sectors declined. Different time periods had different dominant styles [10]. - **股指基差**: The expansion of market - neutral strategies and the increase in index dividend rates led to an increase in index futures discounts. It is expected that in the second half of 2025, the seasonal discount of stock index futures will be relatively larger than in previous years, but the absolute degree of discount will gradually decrease [11][14][16]. 3.2市场估值：关注盈利带动估值消化 - **中证500和中证1000指数**: As of June 27, the price - to - book ratios of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes were at historically low - to - medium levels, at 1.91 and 2.13 respectively, in the 49.20% and 23.71% quantiles of the past 10 years [20]. - **上证50和沪深300指数**: As of June 27, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes were relatively high, while the price - to - book ratios were relatively low, showing a valuation divergence. The recovery of profitability is crucial for digesting the price - to - earnings ratio and repairing the divergence [22]. - **指数拥挤度**: The market style may continue to shift towards growth - type targets. The relative valuation of small - cap growth - style assets has increased significantly, and the difference in the crowding degree between the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes has narrowed [24][28]. - **股债性价比**: The stock market does not have an obvious relative advantage. After the significant rise in the market since the end of September, the stock market is running at a low level. If the Fed cuts interest rates in the second half of the year, the yield of interest - rate bonds is expected to continue to decline, and the relative valuation of the stock market is still at a relatively high level [34]. - **估值小结**: After the valuation repair since the end of September, the relative valuation advantage of the stock market over bonds has weakened. The market is internally differentiated, and the valuation repair is faster than the profit recovery. The difference in the crowding degree between the CSI 1000 and CSI 300 indexes will continue to oscillate upward [36][37]. 3.3国内预期向现实转化仍存阻力 - **金融传导效率好转，政策效果需进一步释放**: In May, the year - on - year growth rate of M1 money supply rebounded. The conversion from M2 to M1 began to appear, but the long - term investment willingness of real - economy enterprises was still weak, and the credit policy to stimulate consumption had not fully taken effect [37]. - **通缩压力未完全消退，利润水平修复仍处于筑底阶段**: The net profit of constituent stocks of each index is still at the bottoming stage, showing differentiation. The profit of large - scale industrial enterprises has not formed a continuous repair trend. The price level shows that the economy is still on the verge of deflation, and the demand - side momentum has not fully recovered [39][44]. 3.4资产配置转移预期提升，资本账户压力或将缓解 - **资产配置转移预期提升**: The central bank cut the reserve ratio and policy interest rates, and commercial banks lowered deposit rates. The "deposit relocation" expectation has increased, and funds are flowing from traditional bank deposits to bank wealth management and the capital market, which is expected to bring sufficient allocation funds to the A - share market [46][49]. - **美元主导因素转变，资本金融账户压力或将缓解**: The US dollar is changing from a typical counter - cyclical asset to a pro - cyclical asset, and its weakening expectation is increasing. The RMB's passive depreciation pressure is expected to be substantially relieved, and the capital and financial accounts may enter a repair channel [53][55]. - **关税措施修正收缩空间有限，经常账户仍存在明显压力**: Sino - US trade is still affected by tariffs. The US faces structural contradictions, and the "Big and Beautiful Act" may support the US's tough attitude towards import tariffs, so the domestic current account still faces obvious pressure [57][62][63].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The industry investment rating suggests the cotton market is "oscillating with a slight upward trend, and low-buying is advisable" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The USDA's June global cotton supply and demand forecast shows that in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.65 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 710,000 tons, while global consumption is expected to be 25.708 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 304,000 tons. The planting area of cotton in the US in 2025 has decreased by 12% year-on-year to 9.867 million acres, with an 8% reduction in the main producing area of Texas. The planting progress is slow, and the good and excellent rate is 49%, lower than the same period last year. The USDA predicts that the US cotton production in the 2025/26 season will be 3.18 million tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%, but the weather in the third quarter remains a key variable [3] - In Xinjiang, China, as the temperature rises, the cotton growth progress has accelerated, generally entering the early flowering stage, and pests have appeared in some cotton fields. The Xinjiang Meteorological Observatory forecasts that most areas in Xinjiang will experience continuous high temperatures above 35°C in the next week, with local short-term heavy precipitation, so the impact of weather changes on cotton growth needs continuous attention [3] - This week, the trend of cotton yarn has been relatively weaker than that of cotton. The spot transaction price has been relatively stable. The processing profit of inland spinning mills has remained around the cash flow. Downstream orders have decreased, and inventory has increased slightly. Spinning mills mainly make rigid-demand purchases and mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude [3] - As of the end of May 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory was 3.459 million tons, a decrease of 694,000 tons from the end of April. The monthly decline has exceeded 600,000 tons for three consecutive months, and the de-stocking speed has reached a new high in the same period in recent years. If this pace continues, the inventory may drop to a low level before the new cotton is listed (September - October), intensifying market concerns about tight supply and supporting the futures price [3][32] - As of June 27, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 10,302 lots, with 302 lots of valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 423,800 tons, compared with 433,400 tons on June 20 [3] - The basis of 31-grade double-28 Xinjiang new cotton against the 05 contract is 950 - 980 yuan/ton, and that of double-29 cotton is 1,050 - 1,100 yuan/ton [3] - The overall average cost of ginning plants this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. Against the backdrop of the withdrawal of some ginning plant production capacity in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook for the new season, the expected opening price is not expected to be high [3] - The ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran shows fragility, but the short-term easing of the Middle East geopolitical situation has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September and China's timely introduction of incremental reserve policies have boosted market confidence in the short term through the expectation of monetary easing [3] - Recent cotton price rebounds are mainly due to crowded short-selling funds, low valuations, and the depletion of high-quality domestic cotton caused by reduced imports of cotton and cotton yarn this year, which has led to a continuous strengthening of the basis. However, the downstream is in a loss state, so in the short term, attention should be paid to the issuance of sliding-scale import quotas or even state reserve sales that may be triggered by the difficulties faced by spinning mills, which could effectively address the continuously decreasing cotton inventory [3] Summary According to the Directory Global Cotton Supply and Demand - The USDA estimates that the world will continue to accumulate cotton stocks. From the 2020/21 season to the 2024/25 season, the global ending inventory has generally increased, and the inventory-to-use ratio has also risen from 58.54% to 67.97% [5] - The new season is still expected to have an oversupply of cotton globally [8] US Cotton Exports - The export prospects of US cotton in the next season face significant challenges and uncertainties. The trade war poses a major risk to the supply chain, and textile-producing countries are very cautious about forward purchases of US cotton. If China's tariffs on US cotton continue, China's purchases of US cotton in the next season will also remain stagnant. Additionally, Brazil's record-high production will compete with US cotton in the supply market, and the export contracts for US cotton in the 2025/26 season are expected to be signed very slowly [14] Overseas and Domestic Market Conditions - Overseas cotton mill operating rates are relatively stable [18] - In China, the downstream operating rates have slightly rebounded, and the operating rates of weaving factories have steadily increased [21][24] - Chinese cotton spinning enterprises maintain rigid-demand restocking, with insufficient initiative for restocking [27] - In China, the raw material inventory of weaving factories has declined, while the finished product inventory has continued to accumulate [30] - The total volume of new cotton warehouse receipts in China remains high [34]

Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. The UNICA bi - weekly production data will be the key variable guiding market sentiment. The current ICE raw sugar futures price has partially reflected the expected high - yield in Brazil. After breaking through the key support level of 16.5 cents per pound, price - sensitive buying has significantly increased, and the basis is strong. With the recent deterioration of weather in Brazil, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly after the July delivery. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week. Although there were profit - taking orders from long - position holders at the 5800 - level, there is still room for upward movement based on the position structure and market sentiment, so long positions can be held for now [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: As of the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season has ended. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. The focus of the raw sugar market has shifted to the new crushing season in Brazil. Different institutions have released forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil [6]. - **Demand**: As of the end of May, the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.521 million tons or 23.07%. The cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of May 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons. The industrial inventory at the end of May was 3.0483 million tons. As of late May, the inventory in third - party warehouses in Guangxi was about 1.38 million tons, about 0.19 million tons more than the same period last year [6]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of June 27, the number of registered sugar warehouse receipts was 23,992, with 0 valid forecasts, totaling 23,992, down from 27,669 last week [6]. - **Basis**: The spot transaction price of sugar in Guangxi was 6,012 yuan per ton. The quotations of sugar - making groups mostly increased this week, the market trading atmosphere continued to improve, and the overall spot trading was good [6]. - **Profit**: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil was about 5,574 yuan per ton, and that from Thailand was 5,680 yuan per ton. The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week, and the out - of - quota import profit remained flat [6]. - **Macro**: The short - term geopolitical situation in the Middle East has eased, which has a positive impact on the market. Market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September have increased, and there are expectations of incremental reserve policies in China, which have boosted market confidence in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Long positions can continue to be held. The international sugar market has entered the accelerated production period of the new crushing season in the central - southern region of Brazil. After the July delivery, the raw sugar futures market is expected to rebound significantly. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar continued to rise this week, and there is still room for upward movement, so long positions can be held for now [6]. 2. Weekly Sugar Market News - The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production and sales both increased year - on - year [15]. - As of the week of June 25, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 76 to 74, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped decreased by 149,700 tons or 5.25% week - on - week [15]. - In the second half of May, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 8.86% year - on - year, with an increase in the sugar - making ratio [16]. 3. Weekly Sugar Data - **Domestic Production**: The sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.16 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 12.03%, slightly lower than expected [21]. - **Domestic Sales**: The domestic sugar market has entered the pure sales stage. The cumulative sugar sales as of May were 8.1138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.07%, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster than the same period last year [25]. - **Brazilian Exports and Domestic Imports**: There are data on Brazilian sugar exports and domestic sugar imports, but specific trends are not detailed in the summary part [32]. - **Imports of Domestic Substitute Syrups and Premixed Powders**: In May, the total import of syrups and premixed powders was 64,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 150,700 tons. From January to May, the total import was 346,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 385,800 tons [38]. - **Out - of - Quota Import Cost**: The out - of - quota import cost increased slightly this week [42]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of warehouse receipts decreased from 27,669 last week to 23,992 as of June 27 [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests taking profit on long positions on rallies in the first three trading days of the week due to the daily increase in the number of warehouse receipts and the less - than - expected destocking at ports. On Thursday, it recommends going long on pullbacks as the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in July tightens and the probability of an escalation in the situation among the US, Israel, and Iran increases [2]. - According to the expected changes in oil prices and BZN, the valuation range of EB2508 is revised up to 7400 - 8150 yuan. It is recommended to hold long positions and go long on pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Pure Benzene Logic - **Domestic and Asian Device Maintenance**: In China, many domestic pure benzene - related devices have maintenance plans or actual maintenance situations. The total domestic maintenance loss in June is 17.69 million tons, and in July it is 17.10 million tons. In Asia, many foreign devices also have maintenance plans, with a total maintenance loss of 23.27 million tons in June and 11.01 million tons in July [10][11]. - **Overseas Aromatic Hydrocarbon Supply - Demand Changes**: From May to June in the US, the total pure benzene imports were only 3 - 4 million tons, and the inventory of pure benzene traders and downstream raw materials in the US Gulf ports decreased significantly. In Europe, multiple phenol plants announced permanent closures this year [12]. - **Production and Profit**: The weekly production profit of petroleum benzene increased by 100 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.36% (+0.96). The weekly production profit of hydro - benzene decreased by about 97 yuan/ton, and the operating rate was 67.87% (+0.77). The import profit of domestic pure benzene decreased by 49.86 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed [15][18]. - **Crude Oil and Related Inventory**: In the week of June 13, EIA crude oil inventories decreased by 11.473 million barrels, Cushing crude oil decreased by 995,000 barrels, and SPR replenished by 230,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate dropped to 93.2% [22]. - **Downstream Product Conditions**: In the phenol sector, some plants increased their loads; in the caprolactam sector, the profit improved significantly and there was still room for restocking; in the aniline and adipic acid sectors, some plants had start - up and shutdown situations, and the profit of adipic acid increased slightly [27][29]. - **Inventory and Consumption**: As of June 16, the pure benzene inventory in East China ports was 153,000 tons (+4000), and the提货 volume decreased significantly. The five major downstream industries' total consumption of pure benzene increased by about 27,300 tons. After revising up the caprolactam operating rate forecast, the pure benzene supply - demand in July turned back to a tight balance [31][35]. 02 Styrene Logic - **Device Maintenance**: Domestically, Baolai's 350,000 - ton device entered maintenance, and some other devices restarted or postponed maintenance. Overseas, some devices restarted or had restart failures, and some were shut down due to raw material problems. The total domestic maintenance loss in June was 106,600 tons, and in July it was 50,500 tons [41][42]. - **Production and Profit**: This week, the domestic styrene production was 361,900 tons (+23,800), and the capacity utilization rate was about 79.01% (+5.2). The average weekly integrated profit of styrene increased by about 91 yuan/ton, the profit of PO/SM plants increased by about 29 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the average weekly profit of non - integrated plants decreased by about 25 yuan/ton [43][47]. - **Inventory and Trade**: This week, the styrene inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 188,800 tons (+4100), and the inventory in East China ports was 66,300 tons (-13,700). The import profit of styrene decreased by 34.79 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the far - month import window closed. The export of styrene in June is expected to be 21,000 tons, a decrease from the previous month [55][58]. - **Supply and Demand**: This week, the total consumption of styrene by the three S products decreased by about 2400 tons. In the short term, the supply of styrene increased while the demand decreased, but the accumulation of factory and port inventories was small [61]. 03 Downstream Products & Terminal Industry Logic - **EPS**: The average weekly external procurement profit was - 4 yuan/ton, the production was about 88,900 tons (-3000), the capacity utilization rate was about 53.63% (-1.84), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 27,700 tons (-2400). The mainstream price increased by 260 yuan/ton week - on - week (+3%) [67][82]. - **ABS**: The external procurement profit increased by about 18.33 yuan/ton week - on - week, the production was about 119,800 tons (-200), the capacity utilization rate was about 63.97% (-0.11), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 209,000 tons (-9000). The average price increased by 78.33 yuan/ton week - on - week (+0.72%) [73][82]. - **PS**: The average weekly external procurement profit decreased by 53 yuan/ton, remaining in a loss state. The production was about 89,900 tons (+600), the capacity utilization rate was about 58.7% (+0.4), and the inventory in sample enterprises' factories was about 102,000 tons (+6000). The average price of GPPS increased by 215 yuan/ton week - on - week (+2.69%) [77][82]. - **Terminal Industry**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in automobile sales was 1.2314 million vehicles (+12.61%), and the cumulative year - on - year increase in exports was 319,400 vehicles (+15.2%). In May, the production of air conditioners decreased by 1.353 million units month - on - month but increased by 430,000 units year - on - year; the production of color TVs decreased by 310,000 units month - on - month and 1.193 million units year - on - year; the production of refrigerators increased by 331,000 units month - on - month but decreased by 422,000 units year - on - year [86]. 04 Pure Benzene, Styrene Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Pure Benzene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in pure benzene production, import, and downstream consumption demand from January to December 2025. After adjustment, the supply - demand in July turned to a tight balance [104]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance sheet shows changes in styrene production, net import, and downstream demand from January to December 2025, as well as inventory changes and forecasts [108].

Report Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of SHFE zinc 2507 closed at 21,845 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 0.14% week-on-week. The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week due to the mixed macro situation and the fundamentals of increasing supply and weakening demand in the off - season, with signs of inventory accumulation and weakening spot premiums [3]. - The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed officials' differences became public. In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the output from newly - put - into - operation smelters and the resumption of some overhauled smelters are expected to lead to an increase in production in June, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed. The zinc import window closed in June [3]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. The galvanizing开工 decreased, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season. The开工 of die - casting zinc alloys decreased, and the demand weakened with a slower shipment rhythm. The开工 of zinc oxide remained flat with weakening orders, but some zinc oxide enterprises are expected to resume production next week, and the开工 may increase slightly [3]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased, while the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease. With the Fed's stance, high production enthusiasm of smelters, expected increase in zinc ingot production, weakening demand in the off - season, and signs of inventory accumulation despite the low social inventory of zinc ingots, it is recommended to short SHFE zinc at high prices [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - The SHFE zinc market was volatile this week. The spread between SHFE zinc 07 - 08 contracts weakened week - on - week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M backwardation changed little week - on - week. Due to weak downstream demand, the spot premium decreased [8][12][17]. 02 Fundamental Data - This week, the port inventory of zinc concentrates decreased by 0.1 million tons week - on - week, and the raw material inventory increased by 1.4 million tons [20]. - In June, the processing fees continued to rise, smelters were highly motivated to produce, and the production in June is expected to increase, making the domestic supply gradually more relaxed [23][24]. - In May, the net import of refined zinc was 2.53 million tons, with imports of 2.67 million tons and exports of 0.14 million tons [27]. - This week, the downstream开工 was under pressure. Traders replenished less inventory, the orders for galvanized pipes were few, and the demand for galvanized structural parts weakened in the off - season [28][31][35]. - The domestic zinc ingot spot inventory increased this week, the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone decreased, and the LME zinc inventory continued to decrease [37][38]. - Last week, the new - home sales in 10 key cities increased week - on - week but decreased year - on - year, while the second - hand home sales increased both week - on - week and year - on - year [44][45]. - In June, the production plan of household air conditioners was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual performance of the same period last year; the production plan of refrigerators was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase; the production plan of washing machines was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual performance of the same period last year; from June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 38% year - on - year; and the domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [49][51][54][59].

Report Summary Core View - Aluminum prices closed at 20,465 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 0.12%. Market factors were intertwined, with the Fed on hold and Powell expecting inflation pressure in the coming months [4] Content Summary by Directory 01 Price Data - Shanghai aluminum first rose and then fell this week, but the center of gravity still moved up [11] - The spread between Shanghai aluminum contracts 07 - 08 weakened week-on-week; the LME aluminum 0 - 3M premium strengthened week-on-week [12] - With low inventory, the spot premium of aluminum ingots remained stable [17] 02 Fundamental Data - Aluminum ore port inventory decreased [20][23] - The alumina monthly spread showed a back structure [27] - The production profit of domestic alumina slightly decreased but remained acceptable. The weekly output of domestic alumina slightly decreased, and the inventory continued to accumulate. This week, the output of metallurgical-grade alumina decreased by 0.3 tons week-on-week to 171.5 tons, and the inventory increased by 2.2 tons to 384 tons [31][36][43] - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased but with limited amplitude. This week, the output of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.08 tons week-on-week to 84.47 tons [47][51] - Aluminum imports were at a loss [53] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decrease week-on-week, while the inventory of aluminum rods increased week-on-week. LME aluminum inventory continued to decrease [57][60] - Due to the off-season, the overall starting rate of aluminum products continued to decline this week and may continue to decline next week [64][70] - Last week, the new home sales in 10 key cities increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, while second-hand home sales increased both month-on-month and year-on-year [74][75] - The production plan of household air conditioners in June was 20.5 million units, a 11.5% increase compared to the actual figure of the same period last year [79] - The production plan of refrigerators in June was 7.9 million units, a 3.6% increase compared to the actual figure of the same period last year [82] - The production plan of washing machines in June was 6.75 million units, the same as the actual figure of the same period last year [83] - From June 1 - 15, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year-on-year [85] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decrease in June [90]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20250622: Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macro and fundamental factors are intertwined, and copper will remain volatile in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Warehouse receipts are flowing out, and the premium of copper spot is under pressure [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium continued to strengthen week - on - week [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.03/ton week - on - week to - $44.78/ton, still negative [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at nine ports decreased by 100,700 tons week - on - week to 712,100 tons [17] - The week - on - week change of the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [20] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in June is expected to decrease month - on - month but increase year - on - year [22] - Copper imports still remain in an inverted state [24] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased [25] - The LME copper inventory decreased again, while the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [27] - This week, the operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week but fell short of expectations. Terminal demand was weak, and the finished product inventory of refined copper rods increased [30] - From June 1st to 15th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 38% year - on - year [33] - Domestic photovoltaic module production continued to decline in June [34] - The "trade - in" national subsidy will continue, and 138 billion yuan of central funds will be allocated in the third and fourth quarters [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's social financing in May increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [40] - The US CPI in May increased by 2.4% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.1% month - on - month, falling below expectations for the fourth consecutive month [42] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, expecting two interest rate cuts this year and hinting at an increased risk of stagflation [43]