1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China is the world's largest importer of propylene, with imports of 2.0185 million tons in 2024, accounting for 34.28% of the global total trade volume. Due to continuous domestic capacity expansion, the import dependence has decreased from 14.14% in 2014 to 3.47% in 2024, and may decline further in 2026 [4][17]. - Propylene trade tends to be short - distance due to transportation conditions and costs. China's imports mainly come from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region of China. South Korea is the largest source of imports, and a potential reduction of 3.7 million tons/year of naphtha cracking capacity may affect propylene exports by 333,000 tons/year, but has limited impact on China's supply - demand pattern. Japan is the second - largest source, and the export volume from Taiwan region to China decreased significantly in 2024 due to a tariff increase [4][5]. - China's propylene exports are relatively small, with 73,200 tons exported in 2024, mainly to Taiwan, Mexico, and Malaysia, having a small impact on domestic supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Propylene Import Dependence May Further Decline - The global propylene trade volume has been declining, dropping from about 7 million tons in 2020 to about 5.8 million tons in 2024 [8]. - China's propylene import volume has been decreasing, and the import dependence has declined from 14.14% in 2014 to 3.47% in 2024. In 2026, there will be a large - scale capacity expansion in China, which may further reduce the import dependence [17]. - The 2026 propylene capacity expansion plans cover multiple regions in China, with a total planned capacity of 655,000 tons/year from various enterprises using different processes such as naphtha cracking, PDH, MTO, and CTO [27]. 3.2 The Impact of South Korea's Cracking Capacity Reduction on Propylene Imports Is Small - Propylene trade prefers short - distance transportation. China mainly imports propylene from South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region of China. South Korea is the largest source, with imports of 1.4885 million tons in 2024, accounting for 73.75% of the total imports [29]. - South Korea has a propylene production capacity of 11.165 million tons/year, and about 20% of its production is exported. Facing the crisis of "declining competitiveness", South Korea may cut 3.7 million tons/year of naphtha cracking capacity, which may affect propylene exports by 333,000 tons/year, but has limited impact on China's supply - demand pattern [34][41]. - Japan is the second - largest source of China's propylene imports. As of 2024, its propylene production capacity is about 7.14 million tons/year, with a production of about 4.44 million tons and an export volume of 568,100 tons, accounting for 12.8% of its domestic production. The export volume from Taiwan region to China decreased in 2024 due to tariff adjustments [41][47]. - There are mutual imports and exports among South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan region, mainly due to low transportation costs, device maintenance, and group - internal contract supply. China's propylene exports are small, having a limited impact on domestic supply - demand balance [53][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Global crude oil supply is expected to be loose with an increasing surplus, while demand will gradually recover from November to December. The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand [10][33][36]. - In the polyester industry chain, anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side. Although demand was better than expected in October, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The low - profit situation of PTA and bottle chips may improve [10][112][113]. Summary by Directory 1. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: The 200 - million - ton/year PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan was not fulfilled. The monthly average operating rate in October increased slightly, and the inventory increased slightly. The consumption was still good in October. The price was mainly affected by crude oil, first falling and then rebounding [17][19]. - **PTA**: In late October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The monthly average operating rate increased slightly, and the social inventory continued to decline. The spot processing fee was very poor, falling below 100 yuan/ton [20][21]. - **MEG**: Shandong Yulong Petrochemical's 80 - million - ton/year ethylene glycol plant was put into production in October. The comprehensive operating rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased. The price performance was relatively weak [24]. - **Short Fiber**: The operating rate decreased slightly in late October. The demand was expected to remain weak, and the spot processing fee was generally acceptable. The price first fell and then rebounded, with a slight cumulative decline [27][29]. - **Bottle Chips**: The operating rate rebounded from a low level and then stabilized in October. The domestic demand decreased month - on - month, and the export declined from August to September. The spot processing fee fluctuated little, and the price increased slightly cumulatively [31]. 2. OPEC+ Continues to Increase Crude Oil Production - **Supply Surplus Expectation Intensifies**: In October, eight OPEC member countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, with a cumulative increase of 2.74 million barrels per day. EIA continuously raised the global crude oil production forecast, and the supply surplus expectation intensified. Although the demand decreased seasonally, with the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut and other factors, the international crude oil price rebounded after a decline, with a small cumulative decline [33]. - **Demand Will Seasonally Recover**: The Fed's interest rate cuts may boost demand. The process of the seasonal decline in crude oil demand has basically been completed, and it will gradually recover from November to December [39][48]. 3. The Anti - Involution Narrative Resurfaces - **PTA New Plant Commissioning**: In October, Dushan Energy's 270 - million - ton/year new PTA plant was put into production. The PTA processing fee was extremely low, which attracted the attention of the competent department. Anti - involution may lead to an active contraction of the supply side [51][63]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Tends to Be Loose**: The ethylene glycol operating rate remained at a high level in October, and the supply tended to be loose. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol declined continuously from August to October [64][68]. 4. Demand Is Better Than Expected but Still at Risk of Decline - **Polyester Operating Rate Rises Steadily**: In October, the polyester and loom operating rates increased slightly, showing the characteristic of "no off - season in the off - season". From January to September, the growth of polyester production mainly came from bottle chips, which drove the increase in the consumption of PTA and ethylene glycol [71][75]. - **PTA De - stocks and Ethylene Glycol Accumulates Stocks**: PTA social inventory continued to decline in October, while ethylene glycol port inventory increased. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to the expected decline in demand [76][80]. - **Polyester Profits Are Still Under Pressure**: In October, polyester profits first increased and then decreased. The spot processing fee of short fibers was at a relatively high level, and the profit of bottle chips was expected to improve [81][83]. - **Stable Export of Filament and Gradual Recovery of Bottle Chip Export**: From January to September, the exports of filament, bottle chips, and short fibers increased year - on - year. The export of bottle chips had the largest scale and increment, but there was a large pressure of year - on - year decline in single - month exports in the later stage [86][89]. - **Risk of Lagging Decline in Demand**: Although the demand in October was better than expected, there is still a risk of a lagging decline. The operating rates of pure polyester yarn and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms are expected to decline in the later stage [95][98]. 5. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Month - on - Month, but Exports Face Downward Pressure - **Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Improves Gradually**: In 2025, the growth rate of domestic consumption of textile and apparel was not high, but it improved month - on - month. The peak season is mainly in the second half of the year, and attention should be paid to the consumption situation in the fourth quarter [104][105]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports May Recover from a Low Level**: From January to September, the cumulative export of textile and apparel decreased year - on - year. In October, Sino - US trade relations are expected to ease, which is conducive to the recovery of textile and apparel exports [108][109]. 6. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In October, OPEC+ continued to increase production, and the international crude oil price first fell and then rebounded. The prices of polyester industry chain products also showed a similar trend, with better performance than crude oil. The supply and demand of the polyester industry chain increased in October, but the profits were still not ideal [110][112]. - **Outlook**: From November to December, the international crude oil market has both positive and negative factors. The supply of the polyester industry chain is expected to contract along with the decline in demand. The profits of upstream and mid - stream products such as PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol are expected to improve [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, but weather factors may affect the tapping progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the overall upward driving force is weak [3][63]. - The cost - side supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, and the supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from October to November. The profit of butadiene rubber is in a loss state, with high - level production and inventory. The annual capacity growth rate of butadiene rubber is 9%, and the inventory remains high [4][65][66]. - The strategy is to dynamically intervene in buying natural rubber and selling synthetic rubber, while paying attention to risk points such as tariff policies, device commissioning and maintenance changes, extreme weather in major producing areas, oil price fluctuations, and the macro - economy [5][67]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Rubber Market Review in October 2025 - Natural rubber: The rubber market showed a "V" - shaped trend in October. It continued to decline in the first and middle of the month, possibly due to the slightly unexpected rubber reserve release at the end of September and the expected increase in supply in October. The market rose in the later period due to the warming of macro - sentiment. As of October 29, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,625 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton (+1.6%) for the month, and the closing price of the NR main contract was 12,720 yuan/ton, up 290 yuan/ton (+2.3%) for the month [10]. - Synthetic rubber: It fluctuated following natural rubber but was weaker than natural rubber. As of October 29, the closing price of the BR main contract was 10,795 yuan/ton, down 545 yuan/ton (-4.8%) for the month [10]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Natural Rubber: Southeast Asian New Rubber Supply May Fall Short of Expectations - Thailand: It may have entered a stable production - decline cycle. Although there is an expectation of increased production in the fourth - quarter peak season, the current new rubber supply is affected by rainy weather. The rainfall in the northeastern part of Thailand is expected to decrease seasonally, but the production there may not increase significantly. The southern part is approaching the rainfall peak, which may still affect tapping. In August 2025, Thailand's rubber production was 458,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons (-0.4%). From May to August, the production was 1.585 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24,600 tons (-1.5%) [13][14]. - Other major ANRPC members: Indonesia's production has increased this year, with 189,000 tons in August 2025, a month - on - month decrease of 8,500 tons (-4.3%), and a cumulative export of 1.141 million tons of natural rubber as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 86,300 tons (+8%). Vietnam is expected to have a slight production decrease, with 140,500 tons in August 2025, the same as the previous month, and a production of 455,500 tons from May to August, a year - on - year decrease of 50,000 tons (-10%) [15]. - China: Affected by Typhoon "Mujigae" in 2024, about 230,000 mu of rubber plantations in Hainan were damaged. In August 2025, China's production was 113,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,000 tons (+12%). The rainfall in Yunnan and Hainan in October was lower than that of the previous year. African rubber is rising, with Cote d'Ivoire's cumulative exports reaching 1.05 million tons as of August 2025, a year - on - year increase of 130,000 tons (+14%) [16]. 3.2.2 Natural Rubber Import: Affected by Overseas Production Increase and EUDR Delay - Import volume is seasonally increasing with the growth of overseas output. Future imports need to pay close attention to industry policies such as EUDR, China - Thailand zero - tariff policy, and zero - tariff policy with 53 African diplomatic countries. The appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht may put pressure on imports. EUDR implementation has been postponed. In September, 595,900 tons of rubber were imported, a month - on - month increase of 75,000 tons (+14%), higher than the average of the past five years (550,000 tons). From January to September, the cumulative import was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [21][22][24]. 3.2.3 Butadiene Rubber: High Inventory - The supply - demand gap of butadiene is expected to gradually widen from November to December. The supply side includes: a certain repair of naphtha cracking ethylene profit but still in a loss state, with the weekly production rate dropping to a seasonal low due to maintenance from October to November; a 14% expected capacity growth rate of butadiene in 2025, with the production of 200,000 tons from Jilin Petrochemical and 200,000 tons from Yulong Petrochemical put into production in August - September expected to be released, and 180,000 tons from Guangxi Petrochemical planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter; although South Korea has decided to cut 25% of its naphtha cracking capacity, the import volume from South Korea has not significantly decreased, and the import volume from Europe has increased significantly. The demand side focuses on the commissioning progress of SBS and ABS. The inventory of butadiene rubber has been high this year, with Yulong Petrochemical's 150,000 - ton production capacity put into production and gradually ramping up at the beginning of the year, and a 50,000 - ton/year low - cis butadiene rubber production device of a certain petrochemical expected to start trial production in late October [37]. 3.3 Demand Side: Domestic Demand is Good, Export is Acceptable, but Trade Frictions Need Continuous Attention - Overseas demand: From January to August, EU car registrations were 7.169 million, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.2%, and US car sales were 1.91 million, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - Direct demand: The performance of all - steel tires is good. From January to September, the domestic production of semi - steel tires was 432 million, a year - on - year decrease of 0.96%; the production of all - steel tires was 95.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The start - up rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was lower than that of the previous year, and the overall enterprise inventory was high. The weekly start - up rate of all - steel tires was at a medium - to - high level in the past five years, and the inventory was at a seasonal low. - Tire export: In September, the export volume of new pneumatic tires was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80,000 tons. The cumulative export from January to September was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for motor cars was 2.5 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 0.4% compared to the previous month. The export of new pneumatic rubber tires for trucks and buses was 3.63 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.7%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.3% compared to the previous month. Continuous attention should be paid to the impact of trade frictions [43]. - Terminal market: From January to September, passenger car sales were 21.2126 million, a year - on - year increase of 13.6%, with the growth rate remaining the same as the previous month. Commercial vehicle sales were 3.1118 million, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%, with the growth rate increasing by 1.4% compared to the previous month. The sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow, especially the sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly. From January to September 2025, the sales of new - energy heavy - duty trucks were 135,300, a year - on - year increase of 179%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of highway freight turnover was 4.1%, with the growth rate increasing by 0.2% compared to the previous month [44]. 3.4 Inventory: Synthetic Rubber Inventory is High, and Natural Rubber May Have an Inventory Accumulation Expectation - Natural rubber: As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.039 million tons, a decrease of about 49,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The dark - colored rubber inventory was 639,000 tons, a decrease of about 22,000 tons, and the light - colored rubber inventory was 400,000 tons, a decrease of about 27,000 tons. The 20 - number rubber futures inventory was 43,800 tons, an increase of about 9,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The Shanghai rubber futures inventory was 123,300 tons, a decrease of about 26,000 tons from the end of the previous month, reaching a seasonal low [56]. - Synthetic rubber: The butadiene rubber enterprise inventory increased to 28,600 tons, and the trader inventory decreased to 4,500 tons. The total was still at a relatively high seasonal level. The BR futures inventory was 8,900 tons, a decrease of 300 tons for the month. The total inventory of styrene - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was about 24,000 tons, at a seasonal medium level [56][57]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Natural rubber: The supply side has an unchanged expectation of increased production, but the tapping progress may be affected by rainy weather in domestic and overseas producing areas. The Southeast Asian producing areas, mainly Thailand, may have a supply increase falling short of expectations. The import is seasonally recovering, but there may be some pressure due to the postponed implementation of EUDR and the appreciation of the RMB against the Thai baht. The demand side shows good domestic demand, with relatively good performance of heavy - duty trucks and all - steel tires, but tire exports face challenges due to continuous international trade frictions. Overall, although there is an expectation of increased new rubber supply, factors such as weather may still affect the supply progress. The demand side does not seem to be the focus of trading. Currently, the rubber price has returned to a relatively reasonable level, and considering the expected inventory accumulation in the later period, the upward driving force is weak [63]. - Synthetic rubber: The cost - side supply of butadiene is abundant, and the supply - demand gap from October to November is expected to gradually widen, which may or may not affect the price of natural rubber. Butadiene rubber has a loss in profit, high - level production, and high inventory, with a 9% annual capacity growth rate and continuously high inventory [4][65][66].

Report Information - Report Title: Monthly Average Price Futures Listing Strategy Report - Valuation Differentiation, Focus on Opportunities in the Strength and Weakness between Varieties [1] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhang Kexin, Wang Junlong, Lin Jing [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - **Valuation Range**: Assuming Brent crude oil is at $60 - 70 per barrel, the lower marginal prices for PP, PE, and PVC are approximately 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,500 yuan/ton, and 4,650 yuan/ton respectively; the upper marginal prices are about 7,000 yuan/ton, 7,350 yuan/ton, and 5,150 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Driving Forces**: Polyolefins have both supply and demand increasing, while PVC demand is weak. Combining the balance sheets, PE has a better outlook. In the fourth quarter, PE is in a tight - balance state, while PP and PVC may experience inventory accumulation [8]. - **Contract Selection**: Considering liquidity, it is recommended to prioritize the PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F contracts [9]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: The listing benchmark prices of PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F are 6,673 yuan/ton, 7,002 yuan/ton, and 4,774 yuan/ton respectively. PP is slightly over - valued, PE is neutrally valued, and PVC is under - valued. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For the L2602F - PP2602F spread, it is recommended to widen the spread on dips, with a reference range of 200 - 600 yuan/ton. PVC is not recommended for hedging for now [11]. Summary by Directory Core Points and Strategies - **Valuation Range**: Based on Brent crude oil at $60 - 70 per barrel, export and import profit formulas, and cost calculations, the lower and upper marginal prices of PP, PE, and PVC are estimated [7]. - **Driving Forces**: Polyolefin supply has a year - on - year growth rate of over 10%, PVC supply grows by about 6%. PP demand grows by about 5.8%, PE demand is supported by the peak season of greenhouse films, while PVC demand is dragged down by the real estate sector. From the balance sheets, PE is in a better position [8]. - **Contract Selection**: Due to liquidity considerations, the PP2602F/L2602F/V2602F contracts are recommended [9]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Given the listing benchmark prices and market factors such as potential Sino - US trade agreements and rising oil prices, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Widen the L2602F - PP2602F spread on dips, and do not recommend PVC for hedging currently [11] Valuation Differentiation - **Production Profits**: PP, PE, and PVC production profits show different trends and levels in different production methods and time periods, with PVC production in a loss state and the integrated profit of caustic soda - PVC slightly in the red [14][21][30]. - **Price Spreads between Varieties**: The price spreads between L - PP, L - PVC, and PP - PVC show different trends over the years, providing potential trading opportunities [36] Polyolefins Supply and Demand Increase, PVC Demand is Weak, PE has a Better Outlook from the Balance Sheet - **Supply and Operating Rates**: The monthly production and operating rates of PP, PE, and PVC show different trends over the years. PP and PE supply is expected to increase, while PVC supply growth is relatively slower [46]. - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The downstream operating rates of PP, PE, and PVC also show different trends, with PVC downstream operating rates affected by the real estate market [59][69]. - **PVC Exports**: India's anti - dumping tax on PVC has been implemented, but the impact on export data has not yet been reflected [75]. - **Demand**: The real estate market data such as housing completion, new construction, and sales area show a downward trend, which has a negative impact on PVC demand [83]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of PP, PE, and PVC show different trends, with PVC inventory potentially increasing [90][99]. - **Balance Sheets**: The balance sheets of PP, PE, and PVC show different supply - demand relationships in different months, with PE in a relatively better position in the fourth quarter [107][110][112]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still has projects ramping up or awaiting production both domestically and overseas. If the mine supply remains stable, lithium salt production is expected to grow strongly. - The demand side shows that the demand for cathode materials is expected to increase steadily, and the terminal market, including new - energy vehicles and energy storage, remains strong. - In November 2025, if there are no changes in the mine end, there is expected to be a supply - demand gap of 1.2 million tons. - The operation suggestion is to buy 2601 and sell 2605 [2][58]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Carbonate Lithium Market Review in October 2025 - In October, the fundamentals of carbonate lithium showed increased production, decreased inventory, and continuous growth in futures. By October 27, the main contract closed at 81,900 yuan/ton, up 9,020 yuan/ton (+12.4%) within the month. The average spot price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 76,600 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 74,300 yuan/ton, both up about 4% month - on - month. - In October, raw material prices rose, with a slightly larger increase than lithium salts. By October 27, the price of SMM lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 906 US dollars/ton, up 49 US dollars/ton (+6%) within the month, and the price of SMM lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,990 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan/ton (+6%) [8]. 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Domestic Lithium Mines - Domestic lithium mine production decreased month - on - month. In September, the sample production of domestic mines was 20,000 tons of LCE, a month - on - month decrease of 700 tons of LCE (-3.4%), and the cumulative production from January to September was 205,000 tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 52,000 tons of LCE (+34%). - Projects in the process of ramping up production include Lijiagou, Dahongliutan, and Lagocuo [11]. 3.2.2 Overseas Lithium Resources - Australian mines: Production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down. In the second quarter, the production of operating mines was about 940,000 tons of ore, a month - on - month increase of about 108,000 tons (+13%), and the sales volume was about 996,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 150,000 tons (+18%). - South American salt lakes: Continued to grow rapidly. New projects were put into production in 2025, and the Atacama salt lake was expanding production. - American mines: The main projects were relatively stable, with increased production and sales volume month - on - month. In the second quarter, the production of the main lithium spodumene projects in the Americas was 140,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 16,500 tons (+13%), and the sales volume was about 120,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 20,000 tons (+18%). - African mines: Expected to have considerable growth, but geopolitical issues may disrupt production and shipping [16][17][18]. 3.2.3 Domestic Carbonate Lithium Capacity and Production - Capacity: The total smelting capacity of carbonate lithium in China has expanded rapidly in the past two years. In October 2025, the monthly total smelting capacity was close to 150,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 37,400 tons (+33%), mainly from the lithium spodumene and salt lake ends. - Production: The overall production of domestic lithium salt plants has continuously reached new highs this year. In September, the production was 87,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons (+2.4%), and the cumulative production was 684,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 203,000 tons (+42%) [23]. 3.2.4 Import of Lithium Ore and Lithium Salt - Lithium concentrate: The cumulative import volume increased slightly. In September, the import of lithium concentrate was 521,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of about 50,000 tons (+10.6%), and the cumulative import from January to September was 4.37 million tons (+3.4%). Among them, the cumulative import of Australian ore increased by 8.5% year - on - year, and that of Zimbabwean ore decreased by 15%. - Lithium salt: In September, the import of carbonate lithium was 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,200 tons (-10%), and the cumulative import in September was 173,000 tons (+5.2%) [28]. 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Direct Demand - The production schedule of cathode materials is expected to increase steadily. In September, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 356,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons (+13%); the production of ternary cathode materials was 75,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 tons (+3%). In October, the estimated production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 5% and 1.65% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong [39]. 3.3.2 Terminal Demand - Power market: The sales of new - energy vehicles in China still had a high growth rate. In September 2025, the cumulative sales of new - energy vehicles (including exports) were 11.198 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.6%, and the sales penetration rate reached 49.72%. The sales of pure - electric heavy - duty trucks increased rapidly, and the proportion of plug - in hybrids decreased. - Energy storage: Due to cost reduction and policy support, there is an expected increase in demand. From January to September, the total winning bid capacity of energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8% [45][46]. 3.4 Inventory and Outlook 3.4.1 Inventory - Mine - end inventory dropped to a low level. Lithium salt inventory has been gradually reduced for about 3 months, and the warehouse receipt volume decreased rapidly in advance [51]. 3.4.2 Carbonate Lithium Outlook in November - There are still projects ramping up or awaiting production both at home and abroad. - Raw materials: The Jianxiawo project in China has stopped production, and some mining rights in Jiangxi are still uncertain. Overseas, the production and sales volume of Australian mines, South American salt lakes, and American lithium spodumene in the second quarter did not decrease significantly. Lithium ore inventory has fallen to a low level in the past half - month. - Lithium salt: Production continues to increase, and the proportion of lithium spodumene - end carbonate lithium production has increased from 55% at the beginning of the year to 64%. - Import: The subsequent import of lithium ore and lithium salt depends on the geopolitics in Africa and whether overseas producers will adjust sales volume due to price fluctuations. - Overall, if there are no changes in the mine end, there is expected to be a supply - demand gap of 1.2 million tons in November 2025 [56][58].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish outlook on the cotton industry, suggesting investors look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound of the CF2601 contract [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton futures price rebounds due to the support of the seed cotton purchase price and the low commercial inventory, but there is a certain hedging pressure in the short - term. In the fourth quarter, due to the significant increase in new cotton production, the pressure of concentrated listing, and the dull demand, the price is likely to show a bearish trend [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: In the 2025/26 season, the US cotton production is expected to be 285 - 300 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. China's cotton production is expected to be around 750 million tons, a year - on - year increase of over 10%, with the highest expectation exceeding 800 million tons [5] - **Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton consumption is expected to be 838 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. The domestic cotton yarn market is trading lightly this week, with most spinning mills making rigid purchases [5] - **Inventory**: As of October 15, the commercial cotton inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory. As of October 24, the raw material inventory of textile enterprises can be used for 11.17 days, up from 10.25 days last week [5] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of October 24, the total of registered warehouse receipts and valid forecasts for Zhengzhou cotton is 12.75 million tons, up from 11.34 million tons on October 17 [5] - **Basis**: As of October 24, the Xinjiang cotton spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton, the closing price of the main CF2601 contract is 13,540 yuan/ton, and the Xinjiang cotton basis is 1,110 yuan/ton [5] - **Cost**: In 2025, the cotton planting cost per mu increased by 100 - 200 yuan compared to 2024. The total cost per mu is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan. The purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton in Xinjiang is approaching 6.5 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton is stable at around 7.1 yuan/kg [5] - **Macro**: In the US, the number of initial jobless claims increased, and the consumer confidence index continued to decline. In China, policies to boost domestic demand are being strengthened, which is expected to support the medium - and long - term demand for domestic cotton [5] 3.2 Week - to - Week Data Charts - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 25.62 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%, and consumption is expected to be 25.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26% [9] - **US Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.2%, consumption remains unchanged at 370,000 tons, exports are expected to be 2.613 million tons, a slight year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 26.28%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.14% [10] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (USDA)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%, consumption is expected to be 8.38 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 88.03%, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [11] - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (BCO)**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 7.42 million tons, imports are expected to increase by 13% year - on - year, consumption is expected to decline slightly year - on - year, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 3.57% year - on - year [13] - **US Cotton Weather**: As of September 26, the good - quality rate of US cotton is 47%, 16 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and the weather is unlikely to have an impact [16] - **9 - Month Xinjiang Cotton Research Conclusion**: The average yield per mu is 460 - 470 kg, the estimated production is around 750 million tons, the cotton quality is better than last year, the purchase price of seed cotton is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, and the inventory of old cotton in Xinjiang is at a three - year low [25] - **Cotton Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume decreased by 69.7% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 67.17% year - on - year [26] - **Cotton Yarn Import Volume**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume decreased by 36.2% year - on - year, and the 2024/25 season cumulative import volume decreased by 15.5% year - on - year [28] - **China's Cotton Commercial Inventory**: As of October 15, the cotton commercial inventory increased by 69.85 million tons compared to the end of September, mainly due to the increase in Xinjiang's inventory [29]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is bullish, driven by macro - optimistic sentiment. The Shanghai copper main contract 2512 closed at 87,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a weekly increase of 3.95%. The market went up due to factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations, slow growth of US core CPI in September, and positive economic data from China, the US, and Europe [4]. - The supply of copper is expected to be tight. Domestic smelters' maintenance expanded in October, with anode copper supplement limited. The output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the output in November is also expected to decline month - on - month. The net import of copper in October increased month - on - month [4]. - The demand for copper is affected by high prices. The consumption of refined copper rods is dull. The sales area of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities from October 13 - 19 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the same period last year. The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to decrease by 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [4]. - In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week, while LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Price Data - The copper spot premium and discount declined as the market was strong but the procurement sentiment weakened. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium and discount weakened week - on - week [12][13]. b) Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.73/ton week - on - week to - $42.7/ton, remaining at a low level [18]. - The inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports decreased by 0.26 tons week - on - week to 67.81 tons [20]. - The change in the refined - scrap copper price difference was limited [22]. - The domestic electrolytic copper output in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [24]. - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [26]. - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded - area inventory increased week - on - week. LME copper inventory decreased and COMEX copper inventory increased [27][28]. - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased slightly week - on - week, and consumption was dull due to high copper prices [31]. - The retail volume of narrow - sense passenger cars in October is expected to be 2.2 million, a decrease of 2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year [33]. - The production of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to decline slightly [34]. - The production of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [35]. c) Macroeconomic Data - China's GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year [38]. - The US Markit PMI in October reached the second - highest level this year, and the euro - zone composite PMI in October reached the highest level in a year and a half [40]. - The US core CPI in September increased by 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest growth in three months, which increased the expectation of another interest - rate cut by the Fed this year [43].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Special Report - Analysis of the Listing of Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts [2][3] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Guolian Futures Research Institute [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The listing of monthly average price futures contracts for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene fills the gap in domestic risk management tools, adheres to the trading pricing habits of physical enterprises, and promotes the in - depth application of risk management tools in the industrial chain [7]. - The innovative cash - delivery mechanism facilitates pricing by industrial chain enterprises and helps form a more representative industry reference price [7]. - The inclusion of these three varieties in the tradable scope of qualified overseas investors helps expand international trade cooperation, safeguard China's pricing rights in global trade, and enhance China's influence in the global commodity market [8]. Group 4: Contract Listing Background - On October 20, 2025, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) officially announced the listing of monthly average price futures contracts for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene, which will start trading on the night of October 28, 2025 [7]. - Monthly average price futures contracts use the weighted average of daily settlement prices or quotes in a specific month as the final settlement price, which is more in line with the trading habits of physical enterprises [7]. - The application and promotion of these contracts can refer to the research project of Guolian Futures Research Institute, and their listing has epoch - making significance [7]. Group 5: Contract Listing Important Matters 5.1 Trading Time - The three chemical monthly average price futures will start trading at 21:00 on October 28, 2025 (with a pre - trading session from 20:55 - 21:00), and night trading will be available [9]. 5.2 Trading Contracts - The first - batch listed contracts start from the 2602 contract. For example, linear low - density polyethylene has L2602F, L2603F, L2604F; polyvinyl chloride has V2602F, V2603F, V2604F; and polypropylene has PP2602F, PP2603F, PP2604F. New contracts for the next month will be added after the last trading day of each month [9][10]. 5.3 Listing Benchmark Price - The listing benchmark price is the settlement price of the corresponding contract on October 28, 2025. Specific information can be queried on the DCE website [10]. 5.4 Margin Ratio and Price Limit - The trading margin ratio and price limit of the three chemical monthly average price futures contracts are the same as those of the corresponding contracts [10]. 5.5 Arbitrage Trading Instructions - Support for arbitrage trading instructions, including same - variety inter - period arbitrage, cross - variety arbitrage, and arbitrage between different delivery methods [11]. 5.6 Fees - The trading fee is 1 yuan per lot for normal trading and 0.5 yuan per lot for hedging. The delivery fee is 1 yuan per lot, and it will be waived before December 31, 2025, except for high - frequency traders recognized by the exchange [11]. 5.7 Declaration Fee - The declaration fee is charged daily, with different standards based on the amount of information and order - to - trade ratio (OTR) for different varieties [12]. 5.8 Portfolio Margin - The three chemical monthly average price futures contracts participate in portfolio margin discounts. Specific information can be queried on the DCE website [13]. 5.9 Position Information Publication - After daily settlement, the exchange will publish contract - related trading volume and open interest as required [13]. 5.10 Trading Limits - The trading limits for linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures contracts are 8000 lots, 18000 lots, and 10000 lots respectively. Hedging and market - making trading are not subject to these limits [13][14]. 5.11 Position Limits - Position limits are implemented according to the "Dalian Commodity Exchange Risk Management Measures", with different limits in different time periods [14]. Group 6: Contract Content - The trading varieties are linear low - density polyethylene, polypropylene, and polyvinyl chloride, with a trading unit of 5 tons per lot, a quotation unit of yuan per ton, and a minimum price change of 1 yuan per ton [15]. - The price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, and the contract months are from January to December [15]. - The trading time includes morning (9:00 - 11:30) and afternoon (13:30 - 15:00) sessions, and other trading times as stipulated by the exchange. The last trading day is the last trading day of the month before the contract month, and the delivery date is the same as the last trading day [15]. - The minimum trading margin is 5% of the contract value, and the delivery method is cash delivery. The trading codes are L + contract month + F, PP + contract month + F, V + contract month + F, and the listing exchange is the Dalian Commodity Exchange [15].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251019: Macro and fundamentals are intertwined, and Shanghai copper will fluctuate in the short term [1] Core View - Macro and fundamentals are intertwined, and Shanghai copper will fluctuate in the short term [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Downstream procurement sentiment is dull, and copper spot trading is average [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M spread strengthened on a week - on - week basis [11] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index was -$40.97/ton, still low [17] - The loss caused by the accident at Codelco's El Teniente copper mine was 45% higher than previously estimated [18] - The refined scrap copper price difference decreased on a week - on - week basis [20] - China's electrolytic copper production in October is expected to decrease by 3.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.7% year - on - year [22] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [24] - This week, both the electrolytic copper spot inventory and bonded area inventory increased within the week [26] - LME copper inventory decreased, while COMEX copper inventory increased [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods rebounded on a week - on - week basis but decreased year - on - year. Enterprises resumed production but were restricted by high copper prices, and consumption was weak [30] - From October 1st to 12th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market decreased by 1% year - on - year [32] - The planned production volume of photovoltaic modules in October is expected to be slightly reduced [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in October decreased by 18% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year [34] Macroeconomic Data - China's new social financing in September was 3.53 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 1.29 trillion yuan [38] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI continued to contract in September, and the service PMI significantly missed expectations [41] - Powell left the door open for the Fed to cut interest rates, but there are differences within the Fed on the pace of rate cuts [42]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The underlying index market remains in a bull market in Q4 2025, but there is a local overheating of leveraged funds in the short - term. The implied volatility of options is at a moderately low level, and there may be local volatility pulses in Q4 due to increased Sino - US relations uncertainty. In a bull market with a negative skew structure, shorting out - of - the - money put options after local volatility pulses is worth attention. As Sino - US relations uncertainty grows, index trends may shift from unilateral upward to range - bound, and investors with long futures positions are advised to sell out - of - the - money call options near the upper bound of the range for additional income [4][5][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Pre - Q3 Financial Options Market Operation Option Market Activity Highly Differentiated - There are 12 listed financial options, with 5 on the SSE, 4 on the SZSE, and 3 on the CFFEX. From January 1 to September 25, 2025, the total trading volume was 1.353 billion contracts, with an average daily trading volume of 7.516 million contracts, a total turnover of 1.25744 trillion yuan, an average daily turnover of 6.986 billion yuan, and an average daily open interest of 8.706 million contracts. Compared with the same period in 2024, the average daily trading volume, turnover, and open interest increased by about 17%, 48%, and 47% respectively. In Q3 2025, the average daily turnover increased by 101.4% quarter - on - quarter. The turnover of small - and medium - cap index options and ChiNext options increased significantly, while that of large - cap index options changed little [10][11][12]. Market Prefers to Trade Growth - Oriented Index Options - In Q3 2025, the CSI 1000 index options had the highest market share at 33.29%, followed by the Southern CSI 500 ETF options at 18.05%, and the ChiNext ETF options at 12.85%. The market generally prefers growth - oriented index options with higher volatility [14]. The PCR of Open Interest Indicates Over - Enthusiasm among Put Option Sellers - In Q3 2025, the PCR of open interest of major financial options mostly followed the underlying index's fluctuations, showing an upward - trending oscillation. The PCR of IO and MO options reached extremely high levels above the 99th percentile, indicating an over - proportion of put option sellers and local market overheating [20]. Stock Index Options Market Volatility Option Implied Volatility Shows an Up - and - Down Trend - In Q3 2025, the implied volatility of options first rose and then fell. The average implied volatility of IO and MO options reached around the 90th and 87th percentiles in the past three years, respectively. During the upward movement of the underlying index, the implied volatility showed different patterns at different stages. Currently, the implied volatility has returned to a relatively low level in the past five - year period, and the room for further decline is limited [23][28][29]. The Proportion of Negative Skew Decreased Significantly in Q3 - The proportion of negative skew in Q3 decreased compared with Q2. The decrease was partly due to the end of the dividend period of index component stocks and the stagnation of small - cap stocks after late August, which reduced the hedging demand of public and private funds. The buying momentum of out - of - the - money call options weakened after reaching a high in late August, indicating market caution [33][35]. The Frequency of "Near - Low, Far - High" Implied Volatility Increases - Taking the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index options as examples, the proportion of the "near - low, far - high" term structure of the CSI 1000 index options increased in Q3, indicating a relatively stable market trend and a lower frequency of short - term sharp fluctuations, suggesting a healthier and more sustainable market upward movement [38][40]. Q4 Volatility Outlook - In Q3 2025, the difference between the implied volatility and the 30 - day historical volatility of IO and MO options had a certain range of fluctuations, and the average difference showed that the environment for option sellers improved compared with Q2. Currently, the implied volatility of the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 index options has bottomed out and rebounded, with a moderately low premium level. There is a possibility of upward volatility pulses in Q4 [41][42][44]. Option Strategy Review and Recommendation Long - Term Excess Returns of IM Long Positions - As of October 10, 2025, long - term holding of the IM current - month contract has achieved a cumulative return of 44.5%, 11.2 percentage points higher than the CSI 1000 index. However, there was a significant retracement from mid - August to early September due to the stagnation of small - cap stocks and the convergence of futures discounts [45]. Returns of Put Option Sellers in the First Three Quarters - Back - testing shows that although put option sellers did not outperform the underlying index in Q3, the stability of the fund curve was better, and the average retracement was significantly reduced [48]. Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on Option Synthetic Underlying Premiums - The quantitative timing strategy based on ETF option synthetic underlying premiums has achieved an annualized return of 19.5% and a maximum retracement of 17.83% on the CSI 500 index futures since 2018. In the first three quarters of 2025, it achieved an absolute return of 21.41% with a maximum retracement of only 3.25% [54]. Classic Option Double - Selling Strategy - The double - selling strategy is most suitable for the relatively stable SSE 50 index options, with a cumulative return of 12.96% and a maximum retracement of less than 6% in the first three quarters of 2025. The IO option double - selling strategy has achieved positive returns but suffered a significant retracement during the unilateral market since July. The MO option double - selling strategy has the most unstable returns, with a cumulative return of - 2.52% and a relatively large maximum retracement [56][58]. Q4 2025 Outlook - In Q4 2025, the underlying index market is still in a bull market, but there is local overheating of leveraged funds in the short - term. The implied volatility of options is at a moderately low level, and there may be local volatility pulses. In a bull market with a negative skew structure, shorting out - of - the - money put options after local volatility pulses is worth attention. As Sino - US relations uncertainty grows, index trends may shift from unilateral upward to range - bound, and investors with long futures positions are advised to sell out - of - the - money call options near the upper bound of the range for additional income [66].