Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251207: Macro Upward, Sharp Increase in LME Copper Cancellation Ratio, Shanghai Copper Expected to Remain Strong [1] Core Viewpoint - With the macroeconomic upward trend and a sharp increase in the LME copper cancellation ratio, Shanghai copper is expected to remain strong [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot circulation sources are tight, and the copper spot premium has risen [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first rose and then fell, showing a week - on - week weakening [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.86/ton, still at a low level [14] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 750,200 tons [17] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [19] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - The overseas market is strong, the copper export window is open, and some smelters are actively preparing for exports [23] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory both continued to decrease week - on - week [25] - LME copper inventory is still increasing but the cancellation ratio has soared, while COMEX inventory continues to increase [27] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The breakthrough of the market to a record high significantly suppressed the consumption of refined copper rods [28] - From November 1st to 30th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 7% year - on - year and 6% compared with the same period last month [30] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [33] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI in November was 49.9 [40] - The CPI in the Eurozone rebounded to 2.2% in November [42] - Hassett said that now is a good time for another cautious interest rate cut [44]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Black varieties, especially coking coal, are experiencing a backlash from last month's overvaluation as delivery pressure is fully manifested; the downside space for rebar and hot - rolled coils is limited, but upward movement requires policy and sentiment fermentation; the focus of iron ore is on the impact of long - term agreement negotiations on the market, showing significant box - like characteristics; the downside space for glass spot is limited, but the futures far - month prices are high, and the near - month is mainly centered around delivery, and cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [2]. - Total demand remains insufficient. The era of real estate has passed, infrastructure growth is restricted by various factors, and although exports are booming, they are highly uncertain due to factors like anti - dumping; anti - involution is different from supply - side reform, especially the 2016 supply - side reform in the black industry; iron ore faces significant long - term pressure, and current long - term agreement negotiations are intense; many near - month varieties are not overvalued currently, but the previous overvaluation has led to the current backlash; there are many cold repairs in the glass industry, and although there are seasonal factors, the downside space for spot is limited, but the far - month prices are still overvalued [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Viewpoints - Black varieties, especially coking coal, are facing a backlash from overvaluation, with delivery pressure fully shown [2]. - The downside space for rebar and hot - rolled coils is small, and upward movement depends on policy and sentiment [2]. - The key for iron ore is the impact of long - term agreement negotiations on the market, presenting box - like features [2]. - The glass spot has limited downside space, the futures far - month prices are high, near - month trading is centered around delivery, and cash - and - carry arbitrage can be considered [2]. Operating Logic - Total demand is insufficient, real estate's heyday is over, infrastructure growth is restricted, and export uncertainty is high due to anti - dumping [2]. - Anti - involution is different from supply - side reform, especially the 2016 reform in the black industry [2]. - Iron ore has significant long - term pressure, and long - term agreement negotiations are tense [2]. - Many near - month varieties are not overvalued now, but previous overvaluation causes the current backlash [2]. - There are many cold repairs in the glass industry, the spot's downside is limited due to seasonality, but far - month prices are still overvalued [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market will be divided into a "buy the expectation" phase before the official appointment of the next Fed Chair in May 2026 and a "sell the reality" phase after the appointment. In the "buy the expectation" phase, the "shadow chair" will guide market expectations towards aggressive rate cuts, leading to specific price movements in major asset classes. In the "sell the reality" phase, the Fed's monetary policy path is likely to be cautious due to various constraints, and the market will shift its focus and face increased volatility. Additionally, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet in 2026 and its potential impact on the market should also be closely monitored [22][27][29]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs I. Key Events for Focus on Fed Independence - The independence of the Fed is the cornerstone of the US dollar's credit, influencing global capital flows and commodity pricing. Trump has tried to influence the Fed through various means, such as frequent calls for rate cuts, attempts to dismiss Cook, and appointing new理事. The next key points of focus are the selection of the next Fed Chair and the progress of the dismissal case of Cook, which will affect the market's re - evaluation of the Fed's rate - cut path in 2026 [5][8][11]. II. "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates 2.1 Selection and Appointment Process of the Fed Chair - The process includes candidate selection and evaluation (July - December 2025), where the candidates have been reduced from 11 to 5; the President's official nomination (January 2026), which signals the President's expectation for future monetary policy; the Senate confirmation process (average 4 months), including hearings, committee voting, and full - Senate voting; and the oath - taking ceremony (May 2026) [13][15][16]. 2.2 "Advanced Tests" for Fed Chair Candidates - Test 1: Candidates must have Fed理事 qualifications. If non -理事 candidates are considered, they may need to fill a即将出现的理事 vacancy first. Key time points to watch are January 21, 2026 (Supreme Court oral debate on Trump's attempt to dismiss Cook) and January 31, 2026 (Miran's理事 term expiration) [18][19]. - Test 2: Senate confirmation faces challenges related to partisan differences and Fed independence. If Hassett is nominated, concerns about his close association with Trump and his past controversial remarks may lead to opposition in the Senate, and the final result depends on the Senate's review and game [20]. III. Market Impact: Expectations and Reality of the Fed's "Shadow Chair" 3.1 "Buy the Expectation" Phase: Before the May 2026 Official Appointment - The "shadow chair" will publicly state an aggressive dovish stance, guiding the market to expect rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar index tends to weaken, US Treasury yields decline, and commodity prices rise, with precious metals being the core target of loose trading. However, conflicts between the "shadow chair" and Powell or setbacks in market expectations may increase asset volatility [27][28]. 3.2 "Sell the Reality" Phase: After the May 2026 Official Appointment - After the new Fed Chair is appointed, the Fed's monetary policy is likely to be "hesitant in decision - making and cautious in implementation" due to economic dual - differentiation, FOMC internal differences, and concerns about Fed independence. The market will shift its focus, and volatility will increase. The US dollar remains weak, and commodities will be more influenced by their own supply - demand [29][30][31]. - In 2026, the possibility of the Fed expanding its balance sheet should be closely monitored. If it occurs, it is more of a technical operation for liquidity management, with a scale much smaller than previous QE, and its impact on assets is mainly "liquidity repair" [34][35].

证监许可[2011]1773 号 ——期货择时系列专题（四） 分析师： 黎伟 本文详细探讨了融资相关数据对国内 A 股市场的指引性，并利用量化回 测的方式基于融资增量、融资买入额及融资买入额占两市成交额比值构建 了三种择时策略。结果显示：该类指标用于趋势跟踪策略时的效果远好于 反转策略时的效果，且融资买入额用于择时的长期效果最好。在过去 10 余 年多的时间里，不仅能够显著超越对应基准指数的收益表现，还呈现出更 为平滑的净值曲线，在提升累计收益率的同时有效降低了历史最大回撤， 尤其对成长性更高的中证 1000 指数效果更为突出。 该研究不仅显著拓展了投资者的策略工具箱，而且股指期货及期权交易 者亦可据此预判市场未来几个交易日趋势，从而优化交易决策，增强操作 的针对性与交易胜率。 相关研究报告： 专题报告|金融工程 期货择时系列专题 2025 年 12 月 1 日 融资余额在指数择时中的应用 国联期货研究所 从业资格号：F0300172 投资咨询号：Z0011568 正文目录 | 1、 融资余额与标的指数相关性分析 - 3 - | | --- | | 2、基于融资指标的量化择时策略 - 4 - | | 2.1、 ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251130: Increased Expectations of US Interest Rate Cuts and Constraints at the Mine End, Shanghai Copper Expected to Be Bullish [1] Core View - With increased expectations of US interest rate cuts and constraints at the mine end, Shanghai copper is expected to be bullish [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - The futures market strengthened, suppressing copper spot purchases; tight supply of some goods led to an increase in spot premiums and discounts [11] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened [12] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.43/ton week - on - week to -$42.75/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 723,100 tons [19] - The spread between refined and scrap copper strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [23] - In October, China imported 279,900 tons of refined copper and exported 65,900 tons, with a net import of 214,000 tons [25] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory continued to decrease week - on - week, and the bonded area inventory decreased [27] - LME copper inventory continued to accumulate, and COMEX copper inventory also continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week. The rebound in the futures market suppressed the downstream purchasing sentiment [31] - From November 1st to 23rd, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 3% year - on - year and by 8% compared with the same period last month [33] - As of the end of October, the cumulative installed capacity of solar power generation nationwide was 1.14 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 43.8% [34] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - In October, China's new social financing was 810 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [40] - In the US, the core PPI in September increased by 0.1% month - on - month, lower than expected [43] - Fed officials have successively issued dovish statements [44]

专题研究|研究报告 PVC 系列专题——进出口 2025 年 11 月 PVC 进出口基本面整理 PVC 进出口 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 张可心 从业资格证号：F03108011 随着国内 PVC 产业的发展以及产能的扩张，我国从 PVC 净进口国逐 渐摆脱进口依赖，成为全球 PVC 第一大生产国和出口国。2024 年我国 PVC 出口总量接近 300 万吨，占国内 PVC 产量比重约 12.8%。贸易对象方面 我国在进出口两方面都呈现出了一定的集中度，出口方面，我国近年对印 度、越南、孟加拉国等国家出口呈现显著增量。 2025 年，PVC 下游地产仍在下行周期，出口 PVC 需求端比重增加， 国内 PVC 价格中枢下行也增强了我国 PVC 生产企业出口竞争力。2025 年 1-10 月我国 PVC 累计出口 323,38 万吨，同比增量显著，+48.89%，占 国内 PVC1-10 月累计产量约 16%。 相关研究报告： 与此同时，2025 年我国 PVC 第一大出口国印度在 BIS 认证、反倾销 税政策上的动向对我国 PVC 出口及出口预期带来冲击，在未来出口受限 预期下，今年 PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have all experienced a peak in rapid capacity expansion in the past 5 - 6 years, but the capacity growth rate in 2025 significantly declined compared to the previous peak. The production growth rate of PX and PTA also dropped notably. Polyester products, being closer to the downstream, have shown a steady overall growth in capacity. Although the capacity growth rate in the past two years has also slowed down, the decline is not as significant as that of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. It is expected that in 2026, the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately, while the capacity growth rate of mid - upstream products will slow down significantly. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain will generally improve [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. PX Enters the Stage of Low - Capacity Growth with Limited Room for Utilization Rate Increase - **PX new device production may be postponed due to strict control of refining capacity**: From 2019 - 2023, affected by the commissioning of private refining and chemical integration devices, PX new devices were intensively put into production, with the capacity growth rate exceeding 20% in multiple years. Since the second half of 2023, no new PX devices have been commissioned. In September 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued a work plan, requiring strict control of new refining capacity and reasonable determination of the scale and pace of new PX capacity. Some large - scale PX devices planned for 2026 - 2028 may be postponed. Even if they are commissioned as scheduled, the capacity growth rate will significantly decline compared to the 2019 - 2023 peak [14]. - **PX utilization rate is difficult to increase significantly due to maintenance needs**: PX devices need regular maintenance, and the maintenance time is usually longer than that of PTA, resulting in a certain amount of maintenance loss every year. The PX utilization rate fluctuates throughout the year, and the high - utilization rate usually lasts for no more than three months. In recent years, the average annual utilization rate has been around 81.5%, and it is expected that there will be limited room for further improvement in 2026 [18]. 2. In 2026, PTA Enters a Gap Period of New Capacity Commissioning, and the Utilization Rate Affects Supply - **The pressure of PTA capacity growth eases as there are no new device commissioning plans in 2026**: From 2019 - 2025, China's PTA capacity continued to expand, with high growth rates in some years. In 2025, three new PTA devices were commissioned, with a net increase in capacity of 7.5 million tons per year. In 2026, there are no new PTA device commissioning plans, and although there are multiple devices planned for 2027 - 2028, the overall capacity growth rate from 2024 - 2026 is relatively low [20][23]. - **PTA utilization rate has room for increase due to production efficiency**: This year, the PTA spot processing fee has been poor, which generally affects the industry's utilization rate. In 2025, the average PTA utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous year. In 2026, on one hand, the supply growth pressure is reduced due to no new device commissioning; on the other hand, there is potential for the utilization rate to increase and boost production [24][25]. 3. Ethylene Glycol New Devices Are Scheduled to Be Commissioned at the End of Next Year, and the Supply Growth Pressure Is Expected to Be Limited - **Some ethylene glycol new devices may be postponed**: From 2020 - 2023, the ethylene glycol capacity growth rate was high, but it significantly declined from 2024. In 2025, the capacity increased by 1.4 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 4.6%. From 2026 - 2027, there are still many new device commissioning plans, with a total planned capacity of 5.35 million tons per year. However, due to poor production efficiency, some devices may be postponed. In 2026, only Huajin Aramco's 400,000 - ton - per - year device is planned to be commissioned in the first half of the year, so the new - capacity pressure in the first half of the year is small, while the market will focus more on the commissioning of new devices in the second half of the year [29][30]. - **There is still potential for the ethylene glycol utilization rate to increase**: This year, the profit of oil - based ethylene glycol has improved compared to last year, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was good before July, promoting an increase in the utilization rate. In 2025, the average utilization rate of oil - based ethylene glycol increased by 2.6 percentage points, that of coal - based ethylene glycol increased by 4.9 percentage points, and the comprehensive utilization rate was 59.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from last year. The ethylene glycol production increased due to factors such as a slight increase in capacity, an increase in utilization rate, and a significant increase in imports. Although there are many new device commissioning plans in 2026, the actual supply increase may be limited, and there is limited room for the utilization rate to continue increasing [33][34]. 4. Outlook In 2026, the capacity growth rate of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol will continue to slow down. PTA capacity is expected to have zero growth, and the supply pressure will be small. Polyester capacity is expected to maintain a certain positive growth due to economic growth and reduced uncertainties in exports. The demand for polyester raw materials will slightly increase, and the supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. The low - price and low - profit state of the polyester industrial chain is expected to improve, and the certainty of improved production profit is relatively high [39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Trend**: The precious metals market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The market is currently in a special stage of "ambiguous policy expectations + official data vacuum", and prices are mainly determined by the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts [3][4][6]. - **Gold**: In the long - term, factors supporting the strength of precious metals remain unchanged. After a rapid rise in October, the market needs to consolidate through oscillations. In the short - term, gold is in a high - level wide - range oscillation. Technically, it is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $3950 - 4000 and resistance at $4200. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range, showing no clear long or short signals [4]. - **Silver**: In the short - term, silver prices are also determined by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility and high - level wide - range oscillations. Technically, it is in an ascending triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $48 - 48.5 and resistance at $55. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range. The long - term price center of silver will follow that of gold. The silver market has a fragile supply chain, and its price volatility is higher than that of gold [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - **Fed Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is unclear. There are still differences within the Fed on whether to cut rates in December. The market is pricing in three rate cuts in 2026. After the Fed's dovish remarks on Friday, the probability of a December rate cut rebounded to 71%. The lack of official data for the December Fed decision will lead to repeated fluctuations in the market around rate - cut expectations [9]. - **Fed Independence**: The selection of the next Fed chair and related events may trigger market expectations regarding the Fed's independence and its interest rate cut path in December 2025 and 2026 [9]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - **Gold and Silver ETF Positions**: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1040.57 tons this week. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased to 15257.92 tons, with a decrease of 39.5 tons this week. This shows that institutional investors' physical allocation demand for gold and silver is at a high level [11][33]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETFs**: Global physical gold ETFs achieved capital inflows for five consecutive months, with a single - month inflow of $8.2 billion in October. Gold ETF trading volume soared to a record $17 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [38]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories The report mentions gold and silver exchange inventories but does not provide specific analysis content. Only the data sources are given, which are WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [48][54]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences The report only mentions domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [60]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report only mentions precious metal ratios and does not provide specific analysis content. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index The report only mentions the gold ETF volatility index and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [70].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251123: Short - term Macroeconomic Bearish, Mine - end Constraints Remain, Shanghai Copper Oscillates [1] Core View - The macro situation is short - term bearish, there are still constraints at the mine end, and Shanghai copper shows an oscillating trend [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - The copper spot premium increased as the market declined and terminal purchasing willingness rebounded [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with limited month - on - month changes [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.11 per ton month - on - month to - $42.32 per ton, remaining at a low level [17] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates in ten ports increased by 57,000 tons month - on - month to 704,900 tons [20] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper weakened month - on - month [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [24] - In October, China imported 279,900 tons of refined copper and exported 65,900 tons, with a net import of 214,000 tons [25] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to decrease month - on - month, while the bonded area inventory continued to increase [27] - LME copper inventories increased, and COMEX copper inventories continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to increase month - on - month as the market corrected, downstream purchasing sentiment improved, and orders rebounded [30] - From November 1st to 16th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 2% year - on - year and 7% compared with the same period last month [33] - The overall production volume of domestic photovoltaic module enterprises in November is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of domestic household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] Macroeconomic Data - In October, China's new social financing was 81 billion yuan, new RMB loans were 22 billion yuan, and the gap between M2 and M1 widened [39] - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in November unexpectedly fell below the boom - bust line [42] - The minutes of the Fed meeting showed serious differences [43]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]