铜周报 20251123 宏观短期偏空，矿端犹存约束， 沪铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 盘面跌、终端采购意愿回升，铜现货升贴水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 本周LME铜0-3M升贴水先跌后涨、环比变动有限 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.32美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增5.7万吨至70.49万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind ...

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251116 [1] Report Core View - The macro - situation is short - term bearish, the fundamentals are acceptable, and the copper market is in a volatile state [1] Summary by Directory Price Data - Copper spot trading improved slightly, and the premium/discount remained stable overall [10] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium/discount strengthened compared to the previous period [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.17/ton week - on - week to - $42.21/ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 18,200 tons week - on - week to 647,900 tons [19] - The change in the refined scrap price difference was limited week - on - week [22] - The estimated output of electrolytic copper in China in November will decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [25] - From January to October in China, the import volume of copper ore and its concentrates was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [27] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper decreased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory increased [28] - LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, mainly due to the callback of the previous week's market and the concentrated release of new orders [32] - From November 1st to 9th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 5% year - on - year [34] - In November, the production schedules of domestic component enterprises varied, and the overall production schedule is expected to decline month - on - month [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In October in China, the new social financing was 810 billion yuan, the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - In October in the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months, while the service PMI reached an eight - month high [43] - Fed officials took a hawkish stance, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December decreased [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The domestic platinum and palladium supply mainly comes from imports, domestic mining, and recycling. Imports are the largest source, but the import volume has been decreasing since 2021. Recycling has become an important supplementary source, especially for palladium [5][8]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in the automotive catalyst industry has decreased due to the growth of new - energy vehicles, but plug - in hybrid vehicles still require palladium as a catalyst. The demand for platinum in the glass fiber industry has increased significantly, while the demand in the petrochemical industry has declined [9]. - The importance of recycling in the platinum and palladium supply will increase as high - grade ores become scarce, and the domestic recycling volume is expected to continue to grow [41]. Summary by Directory I. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Supply and Demand Overview - Supply: Mainly from imports (nearly three - quarters), domestic mining (a small amount), and recycling (over one - fifth). Recycling sources include catalysts, industrial waste, and jewelry [11]. - Demand: Mainly from the automotive (over half), industrial (nearly one - third), investment, and jewelry (nearly one - tenth) sectors. The rest is for platinum bar investment [11]. - In 2024, the domestic platinum supply was 95.9 tons (down 7.7% from 2023), with imports down 10.4%, recycling up 5.5%, and domestic mining up 52.9%. The demand was 64.4 tons (down 3.1% from 2023), with a new inventory of 31.5 tons [12][16][17]. - In 2024, the domestic palladium supply was 32.4 tons (up 3.1% from 2023), with imports down 42.6%, recycling up 60%, and domestic mining up 4.5%. The demand was 68.9 tons (down 19.4% from 2023), and the inventory decreased by 36.5 tons [17][18]. II. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Mining and Recycling - Mining: In 2024, domestic mined platinum accounted for 2.7% of the domestic platinum supply, and mined palladium accounted for 7.1% of the domestic palladium supply. Although the production increased compared to 2023, it still accounted for a small share [19]. - Recycling: It is an important source of domestic platinum and palladium supply, especially for palladium. In 2024, the domestic platinum recycling volume accounted for 12.1% of the domestic platinum supply, and the palladium recycling volume accounted for 64.2% of the domestic palladium supply [19]. - Global reserves: China's platinum - group metal reserves account for less than 0.1% of the global total. South Africa and Russia are the major reserve - holding countries [23]. - Global production: In 2024, South Africa and Russia were the major producers of platinum and palladium. China's platinum and palladium mine production accounted for nearly 1% of the global total [26][28]. - Domestic recycling growth: Driven by policies promoting automobile trade - ins, the domestic automobile scrap recycling volume increased significantly in 2024, leading to a significant increase in palladium recycling. However, the recycling industry faces challenges such as intensified competition, strict environmental requirements, and difficulties in implementing reverse invoicing [35][37][40]. III. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Imports - Import trend: Although the production from domestic mining and recycling has increased, imports are still the main source. The import volume has been decreasing since 2021, and the export volume is very small [8][42]. - Import types: Platinum is mainly imported as unforged platinum and platinum powder, and palladium is mainly imported as unforged palladium and palladium powder [46]. - Import sources: The main sources of platinum imports are South Africa, Russia, Japan, Switzerland, and Hong Kong, China. The main sources of palladium imports are South Africa, Russia, Taiwan, China, and Japan [48][50]. IV. Domestic Platinum and Palladium Demand - Overall demand: In 2024, the domestic demand for platinum was 64.4 tons (down 3.1% from 2023), and the demand for palladium was 68.9 tons (down 19.4% from 2023). The decline was mainly due to the increase in the proportion of pure - electric vehicles and the slowdown of petrochemical industry capacity [51]. - Automotive catalyst: It is the main downstream consumer of platinum and palladium. In 2024, the consumption of platinum in automotive catalysts was 16.5 tons (down 13.6% from 2023), and the consumption of palladium was 57.7 tons (down 21.7% from 2023). The growth of new - energy vehicles has impacted the demand, but plug - in hybrid vehicles still require palladium [52][54][57]. - Glass industry: In 2024, the glass industry's consumption of platinum was 23 tons (up 13.3% from 2023), becoming the largest downstream consumer of platinum [52][59]. - Other industries: The demand for platinum and palladium in the petrochemical industry has declined. The demand for palladium in the electronics industry has slightly decreased, but future data storage growth may increase palladium consumption. The platinum consumption in the hydrogen production field is still at a low level [60].

核心观点 主要观点 • 上周各期权隐含波动率表现为先扬后抑震荡回落格局，周一至周三盘中受海外流动性等因素影响隐含波动率出 现局部冲高，但我们亦注意到此过程中国内A股韧性十足，周四周五随着市场情绪的修复隐含波动率再度创出此 轮新低。当前11月IO、HO和MO期权平值隐波均值分别在13.95%、14%和18.3%左右，与30日历史波动率相比分别 溢价-2.89个百分点、-2个百分点和-0.3个百分点左右，溢价整体处于历史偏低水平，预计隐波继续回落空间相 对有限，波动率聚集性特征下或将继续呈现低位震荡格局。 • 隐波的不断回落显示期权市场更多以震荡上行进行定价，短期各指数向上加速概率仍旧偏低。 股指期权 • 持仓PCR值出现明显上行，看涨期权卖方在上周最后两个交易日均有明显减仓趋势，显示资金观点更多认为指数 下方空间不大。 • MO看跌期权持仓密集区在行权价7400点以下区域，IO看跌期权则在行权价4700点处依旧持仓极高，但结合技术 形态我们更倾向于用上周低点附近作为11月看跌期权卖方的防守区域。 2 • 综合而言，11月合约剩余时间将进入最后两周，时间价值衰减加快。一方面前期11月虚值看跌期权卖方仍可考 虑继续 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum 2512 closed at 21,625 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a week-on-week increase of 1.41%. Shanghai Aluminum showed a strong and volatile trend. The direction of the Fed's December interest rate cut is unclear, the US government shutdown set a record, and the PMI performance of the manufacturing and service industries in the US and Europe diverged, resulting in macro uncertainties. During the off-season, the start - up rate of aluminum products decreased, but the inventory pressure was limited. There were disturbances in overseas supply, and the copper - aluminum ratio was at a high level, so Shanghai Aluminum was strongly volatile [3]. - Macroscopically, the direction of the Fed's December interest rate cut is unclear, the US government shutdown set a record, and the PMI performance of the manufacturing and service industries in the US and Europe diverged. In terms of supply, domestic ore is in short supply, while imported ore is sufficient, and the shipment of some Guinea ore has resumed. The weekly output of domestic alumina decreased, but the operating capacity is still at a high level year - on - year and is accumulating inventory again. The room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. In terms of demand, the overall start - up rate of aluminum products decreased this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week. In terms of inventory, the spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly week - on - week, the spot inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased week - on - week [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with long and short factors, and uncertainties are increasing. During the off - season, the start - up rate of aluminum products decreased, but the inventory pressure was limited. There were disturbances overseas, and the copper - aluminum ratio was at a high level. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is recommended to go long at low levels. Alumina continues to accumulate inventory, and its fundamentals are still weak, so it is recommended to go short on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - This week, Shanghai Aluminum was strongly volatile. The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai Aluminum continued to be under pressure week - on - week, and the LME aluminum 0 - 3M spread continued to weaken week - on - week. The high price of the Shanghai Aluminum futures market put pressure on the spot premium of aluminum ingots [7][11][15]. Fundamental Data - Supply of domestic ore is tight, while imported ore is sufficient, and the shipment of some Guinea ore has resumed [19][21]. - The monthly spread of alumina changed little. The weekly output of domestic alumina decreased by 13,000 tons to 1.84 million tons, but the operating capacity is still at a high level year - on - year. The alumina import window narrowed, and the overall inventory increased by 56,000 tons to 4.788 million tons [22][26][29]. - The room for the increase of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is limited. The weekly output of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased by 70 tons to 854,000 tons. Aluminum imports are at a premium. The spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly week - on - week, the spot inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased week - on - week [37][39][44]. - The overall start - up rate of aluminum products decreased this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week due to the high price of the futures market and the off - season effect [51][56]. - From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year. The production plan of household air conditioners in November was 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators in November was 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. The production plan of washing machines in November was 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2% compared with the actual performance of the same period last year. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market increased by 17% year - on - year. The production plans of domestic component enterprises in November varied, with the overall production plan expected to decline month - on - month [57][64][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (2512) closed at 22,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%. The center of Shanghai zinc has risen [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and uncertainty is increasing. The increase in domestic refined zinc production falls short of expectations, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, but the downstream operating rate is declining. With macro uncertainty and a mixed fundamental situation with limited driving forces, Shanghai zinc should be treated as a volatile market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai zinc has changed little week-on-week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium has strengthened [9]. - The spot premium in Shanghai has risen, while those in Guangdong and Tianjin are under pressure [12]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Smelters continue to scramble for domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to deteriorate. In October, domestic refined zinc production increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year, but the increase was less than expected. In November, production is expected to decrease by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19][21]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of galvanizing has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, but orders from some southern terminals have improved, and the operating rate may rebound next week. The high zinc price has suppressed the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy, which is expected to continue to decline next week. The market demand for zinc oxide is average, and the operating rate is expected to remain low next week [3][27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic zinc ingot spot inventory has slightly decreased and is at a high level compared to the same period last year, while the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remains unchanged. LME zinc inventory has slightly decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year [33][36]. - **Related Industries**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year-on-year. In November, the production plan of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4%. The production plan of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 17% year-on-year. In November, the production plans of domestic component enterprises vary, and the overall production is expected to decline month-on-month [40][43][51].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - This week, the spot price of industrial silicon remained largely stable with minor fluctuations, while the futures price oscillated downward. The downstream demand decreased slightly, and the procurement sentiment was poor. The overall supply - demand was relatively loose, but there were also some bullish factors such as cost increases and production cuts in the southwest [6]. - The recommended strategy is to maintain a short position when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon was largely stable with minor fluctuations, and the market atmosphere was sluggish. The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - The recommended strategy is to hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Industrial Silicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price decreased slightly, and the futures price oscillated downward. The southwest region gradually reduced production, and the downstream demand was weak [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High supply in October, high inventory, and limited demand growth in the fourth quarter [6]. - **Bullish Logic**: Cost increase, production cuts in Xinjiang and the southwest, and expectations of the dry season in the southwest [6]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Short positions can be established when the price rises, with an upper pressure level of 9,500 yuan/ton [7]. Polysilicon - **Market Situation**: The spot price was stable with minor fluctuations, and the futures price oscillated strongly. The market was in a state of "strong expectation" and "weak reality" [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: - **Bearish Logic**: High inventory, loose supply, weak downstream transactions, and poor fundamentals [12]. - **Bullish Logic**: Rising component tender prices, policy support, and industrial linkage effects [13]. - **Recommended Strategy**: Hold the previous short position, with an oscillation range of 48,000 - 52,000 yuan [13]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Data Review Price Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the main contract Si2601 was 9,220 yuan/ton, up 1.32% from last week. The trading volume increased by 29.79%, and the open interest increased by 17.38% [27]. - **Spot**: The prices of Tongyang 5530 and Tongyang 4210 in the East China market remained unchanged from last week [27]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of Si2601 (East China 553) decreased by 52.17%, and the basis of Si2601 (East China 421) decreased by 25% [27]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: The overall industrial silicon production decreased by 7.85% this week, and the opening rate decreased to 34.30%. The southwest region saw a significant decline in production, while the northwest region also had a slight decrease [28][58]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy was weak. The production of polysilicon decreased by 5.05%, and the production of organic silicon increased by 5.22% [28]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 554,800 tons, up 4.8% from last week, while the futures inventory decreased by 505 tons [28][80]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The production cost increased mainly due to the rising price of petroleum coke and electricity in the southwest region [78]. - **Profit**: The profit decreased slightly this week, and it is expected to continue to decline next week [78]. 3.3 Polysilicon Data Review Price Data - **Spot**: The price of P - type polysilicon remained unchanged at 44,000 yuan/ton, and the price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 1.54% to 51,000 yuan/ton [119]. - **Futures**: The futures price oscillated strongly due to expectations of production reduction and the establishment of a storage platform [12]. Supply and Demand Data - **Supply**: In November, the polysilicon production is expected to decrease, with a north - south difference in production changes. The overall supply is still at a high level, and the inventory continued to rise [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components decreased, and the procurement sentiment was poor [119][126]. Cost and Profit Data - **Cost**: The average production cost decreased to 41,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2% [132]. - **Profit**: The gross profit and gross margin increased slightly, but the overall profit level was still low [132].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil is cautiously bullish, with Brent crude expected to be in the range of 63 - 69 [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall strength of energy - chemical products is polyester > pure benzene - styrene = methanol - polyolefins. The strategy of "long PX and PTA, short methanol - polyolefins" can still be held cautiously, but beware of the impact of valuation improvement and year - end settlement liquidation, and do not be overly bearish [4] - For crude oil, EIA inventory shows that the apparent demand for US oil has rebounded, there is a small inventory build - up, refineries have unexpectedly reduced their operating rates, and the apparent demand for gasoline has declined with continued inventory drawdown. Seasonal demand decline is阶段性 completed. The current crack spreads for gasoline and diesel are good, and the market will then shift its focus to heating oil demand. The reduction of the Saudi - Asia premium has weakened market sentiment. Geopolitical factors remain the marginal driver [4] - In the polyester industry, PX operating rate has increased, while TA and EG operating rates have decreased. The operating rates of polyester and its downstream industries have increased steadily and continuously exceeded expectations, and the industrial chain inventory has rebounded. Maintenance factors may continue to support TA processing fees, and factors such as a more relaxed external environment and a late Chinese New Year may support the downstream demand of polyester. The upward elasticity of the industrial chain is maintained [4] - In the pure benzene - styrene industry, the downstream demand for pure benzene has increased steadily, with obvious improvement in nylon. The supply side has moderate support such as the conversion of disproportionation profit to loss, low BZN valuation, and better gasoline reforming profit than aromatics. The visible inventory has increased. The downstream PS of styrene has continued to improve, but EPS in the north has entered the off - season. The downstream export orders have increased, but it may still be weaker than pure benzene [4] - In the methanol - polyolefins industry, the decline in methanol has led to a rebound in MTO profit. Attention should be paid to whether the maintenance plan will be implemented. The expectation of non - Iranian supply reduction continues, Iranian shipments may remain at a high level, and East China ports may continue to receive Iranian supplies. The impact of domestic gas restrictions remains to be observed. This chain may still perform weakly, but the price decline has improved the valuation. Be wary of the impact of hedge position liquidation [4] - The US liquidity environment is under test again. The US Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in Treasury bonds of various maturities next week, and about $40 billion in investment - grade corporate bonds are expected to be issued. November 11 is a holiday for US Veterans Day, and the bond market will be closed [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 01 Energy - Chemical Weekly Market Performance - The report mentions "Energy - chemical futures weekly performance", but no specific performance data is provided in the given content [10][12] 02 Crude Oil Data Tracking - **Crude oil weekly inventory**: Not detailed in the given text [18] - **Refined oil weekly inventory**: Not detailed in the given text [21] - **Refinery capacity utilization**: Not detailed in the given text [24][27] - **Oil product crack spreads**: Not detailed in the given text [30] - **Net long positions (affected by government shutdown in data update)**: Not detailed in the given text [33] 03 Energy - Chemical Industry Chain Data Tracking - **Industry chain inventory, operating rate, and processing fee percentile overview**: Data for various products such as PX, PTA, BZ, EB, EG, MA, PE, PP, and PVC are provided, including inventory, inventory percentile in the past three years, operating rate, operating rate percentile in the past three years, processing fee or profit, and processing fee percentile in the past three years [38] - **Aromatic chain basis seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [39][41] - **Olefin chain basis seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [43] - **Aromatic chain inventory seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [45] - **Olefin chain inventory seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [48][51] - **Aromatic chain operating rate seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [55] - **Olefin chain operating rate seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [56][59] - **Aromatic chain profit/processing fee seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [62] - **Olefin chain profit/processing fee seasonality**: Not detailed in the given text [65][68]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251109 [1] Core Viewpoint - There is uncertainty in the macro - environment, and the resonance between the fundamentals' expectations and reality is limited [1] Price Data - The copper futures price declined, the spot purchasing sentiment warmed up, and the premium increased [9] - The LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation widened slightly week - on - week [10] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.11/ton week - on - week to - $42.04/ton, still at a low level [14] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 0.36 tons week - on - week to 62.97 tons [16] - The refined - scrap copper price spread decreased week - on - week [18] - The domestic electrolytic copper production in November is expected to decrease by 0.4% month - on - month and increase by 8.2% year - on - year [20] - China's imports of copper ore and concentrates from January to October were 2508.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [22] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased [25] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [26] - The operating rate of refined copper rods increased week - on - week, as the copper price declined and downstream purchasing picked up [29] - The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market from October 1st to 31st increased by 17% year - on - year [30] - The production schedules of domestic component enterprises in November vary, with the overall schedule expected to decline month - on - month [31] - The planned production of household air - conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production in the same period last year [32] Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [35] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for eight consecutive months in October, and the service PMI reached an eight - month high [37] - The direction of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December is unclear [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is still in a destocking pattern. Amidst news disturbances, the price of lithium carbonate fluctuated sharply this week, and the long - term buying value is significant [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Core Points and Strategies Supply - **Domestic Supply**: Domestic mica monthly output increased, lithium spodumene and recycling output continued to grow, and domestic lithium salt production capacity increased in November. The Jiaxiaowo lithium mine has been identified, with expected cost increase, but the actual resumption of production needs to be tracked. The lithium carbonate futures reached a high of 85,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the hedging supply of recycled materials [11] - **Foreign Supply (Imports)**: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports, while Mali's imports were zero. Lithium carbonate imports in September were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). Additionally, 8,000 tons of lithium sulfate were imported from Chile [11] Demand - In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased by 10.54% and 11.58% month - on - month respectively, and the production schedule in November is expected to remain strong. Solid - state batteries are a continuously focused area with strong policy support, and currently, more attention is on the increasing demand for lithium iron phosphate [11] Inventory - Weekly inventory has been decreasing month - on - month for about 3 months. This week, it was 124,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3,405 tons, and the destocking is accelerating. Warehouse receipts on Friday were 27,332 tons, a decrease of 309 tons during the week. Lithium ore weekly inventory increased for two consecutive weeks [11] Production Cost - Process improvements may reduce production costs. The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has decreased recently, and raw material prices decreased during the week [11] Balance Sheet - Without considering changes in mining permits, it is estimated that there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November [11] 3.2 Data Chart Tracking Price and Spread - **Price Changes**: As of Friday, the SMM valuation of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 150 yuan/ton (-0.2%); lithium mica was 2,120 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton (-2.75%), with a cost reduction of 1,410 yuan/ton; lithium spodumene (6%) was 927 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17 US dollars/ton (-1.8%), with a cost reduction of 1,071 yuan/ton [23] - **Spread Analysis**: The spread between lithium carbonate and nickel strengthened during the week. The strategy of "long 1 and short 5" for the basis and monthly spread of lithium carbonate is presented [24][28] Production and Capacity - **Weekly Production and Capacity**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate was 21,534 tons (+454 tons), and the weekly production capacity utilization rate was 55.21% (+0.77%). Among them, the production capacity utilization rate of lithium spodumene was 65.17% (+0.47%), mica was 31.98% (+1.38%), and salt lakes was 58.37% (-3.84%). The recycling end production capacity utilization rate was 29.88% (-6.69%) [34] - **Monthly Production**: In October 2025, China's lithium carbonate production was 92,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%, and the cumulative output from January to October was 775,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 44%. The production of lithium hydroxide in October was 29,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% [35] - **New Capacity**: In November, the lithium element production capacity will continue to grow (110,000 tons). Newly put - into - production projects include 10,000 tons of lithium salt from Tibet Mining, 30,000 tons from Luopu Xihai New Energy, 30,000 tons of battery - grade lithium hydroxide from Tianqi Lithium, and 40,000 tons of lithium salt from Salt Lake Co., Ltd [36] Import and Export - **Lithium Ore Imports**: In September, lithium concentrate imports increased by 50,000 tons month - on - month, mainly due to a 136,000 - ton increase in Australian ore imports. In October, China's lithium ore production (spodumene + mica) was 20,000 tons LCE, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% [44] - **Lithium Carbonate Imports**: In September, lithium carbonate imports were 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons, with cumulative imports of 1.73 million tons (+5.2%). In October, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, of which 16,200 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 5,100 tons (+46%) [47] Downstream Demand - **Positive Electrode Materials**: In October, the production of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased by 11.58% and 10.54% month - on - month respectively [48] - **Terminal Demand**: From January to September, the winning bid capacity for energy storage was 131.6 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 37.8%. In September, new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million, a month - on - month increase of 15%, and the cumulative sales from January to September were 11.198 million, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34.6% [57] Other Factors - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of high - purity tantalum ingots has been decreasing since June, and the price of potash fertilizer has fluctuated slightly recently. The US added potash fertilizer as a critical mineral on November 6 [61][66] - **Profit Analysis**: The profit from externally purchased lithium spodumene is slightly positive, while the lithium mica end is still in a loss [68] - **Balance Sheet Analysis**: The balance sheet shows that without considering the shutdown/restart of lithium mines in Jiangxi, there will be a shortage of 17,000 tons in November. New capacities of lithium spodumene and salt lakes are being put into production and ramping up, and the production schedule of positive electrode materials in November is continuously improving [72][73]