1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper spot demand is under pressure, the macro - expectation is upward, and there are constraints on copper mine supply [1] - The copper futures market shows a strong performance, while the spot demand is weak, and the discount is widening [10] 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - On December 24, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened compared to the previous Friday [12] - The copper market shows a situation of strong futures and weak spot demand with an expanding discount [10] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $1.25 per ton week - on - week to - $44.9 per ton, remaining at a low level [14] - According to Steel Union, the port inventory of copper concentrate this week was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons week - on - week and lower compared to the same period last year [17] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [19] - The estimated domestic electrolytic copper production in December will increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [21] - In November, China imported 269,200 tons of refined copper, a decrease of 3.8% month - on - month, and exported 143,000 tons, an increase of 116.8% month - on - month [22] - This week, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, while the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly [23] - LME copper continued to destock, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [24] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week and is expected to remain under pressure next week [26] - From December 1st to 21st, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 1% year - on - year and 3% compared to the same period last month [28] - The overall production schedule of photovoltaic modules in January is expected to decline significantly [31] - The planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in January increased by 6% compared to the actual production volume of the same period last year, with household air conditioners increasing by 11% [33] Macroeconomic Data - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months [37] - The US GDP in the third quarter exceeded expectations, with the core PCE increasing by 2.9% [39] - The US labor market is recovering, with the ADP weekly average private employment showing positive growth for three consecutive weeks [42]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - expectation is positive for copper as the Fed's rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals, domestic policy expectations are rising, and major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Fundamentally, global copper mine supply is restricted, and the growth rate of refined copper production is expected to slow down. Although the domestic demand growth rate may slow down, there will still be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market in 2026. Therefore, the Shanghai copper market is expected to continue an upward trend, and a long - position approach is recommended [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro - The US inflation is slowing down, the labor market is weakening, and the rate - cut expectation boosts non - ferrous metals. In November, the US CPI slowed to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI slowed to 2.6% year - on - year, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, and launched a short - term Treasury purchase plan of about $40 billion per month [7][8] - In China, fixed - asset investment is slowing down, and policy expectations are rising. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of manufacturing investment was 1.9%, infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real estate market, and the National Fiscal Work Conference stated that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue in 2026 [10][11] - Major overseas economies are implementing fiscal expansions. Germany will increase its federal debt issuance by about 20% in 2026, Japan will launch its largest - scale initial budget, and the US will have additional fiscal expenditures of about $480 billion in 2026. The PPI shows an upward trend, and attention should be paid to the start of the replenishment cycle [12][14] 3.2 Supply - The growth rate of global copper mine production is expected to be limited. In 2025, the growth rate of global copper mine production was adjusted down to 1.4% due to production cuts in some mines, and in 2026, it is expected to be 2.3% due to new and expanded production capacities in some countries [19][20] - In China, the supply of copper concentrates is in short supply, imports are increasing year - on - year, and port inventories are relatively low. From January to November 2025, copper ore and concentrate imports increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and as of mid - December 2025, port copper concentrate inventories decreased compared with the same period last year [22][23] - By - products improve the loss situation of smelters, and copper concentrate supply is tight, putting pressure on processing fees. In 2025, the TC of imported copper concentrates was in the negative range, and the long - term processing fee for copper concentrates in 2026 was set at 0 [25][26] - The growth rate of global refined copper production is expected to slow down in 2026. The growth rate is expected to slow down to 0.9% in 2026 due to limited copper concentrate supply. China's CSPT will cut the capacity load of mine - copper by more than 10% in 2026, affecting about 1 million tons of global refined copper supply [27][30] - The refined copper market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", with significant import inversion and a decline in net imports. From January to November 2025, China's refined copper imports decreased year - on - year, and exports increased year - on - year [32][33] 3.3 Demand - Driven by supply - capacity expansion and demand increase, China's copper product output increased. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper products increased by 8.8% year - on - year [36][37] - The output of refined copper rods increased. New capacity, demand growth, and substitution effects contributed to the increase in output in 2025. The output of recycled copper rods decreased, driving some demand to refined copper rods [38][39] - The output of copper strips slightly decreased, while the output of copper foils increased significantly. The demand for copper strips is expected to be differentiated, and the demand for copper foils is driven by energy - storage and new - energy vehicle consumption [40][41] - The output of copper tubes was affected by air - conditioner production scheduling, with a significant year - on - year decline in the fourth quarter. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper tubes decreased by 0.3% year - on - year [43][44] - Real - estate demand dragged down the performance of copper rods. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output of copper rods decreased by 1.4% year - on - year [46][47] - The demand for power - grid construction increased significantly, while the growth rate of power - source investment slowed down. In 2025, the cumulative power - grid investment increased by 7.17% year - on - year, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to grow [48][50] - The growth of the global photovoltaic market is expected to slow down in 2026. In 2025, the new photovoltaic installed capacity in China increased significantly, but in 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to policy adjustments, grid - absorption pressure, etc. [51][53] - The global wind - power industry is expected to remain prosperous in 2026. In 2025, the new installed capacity of wind - power in China increased significantly, and from 2026 - 2028, the average annual growth rate of onshore and offshore wind - power is expected to be high [54][55] - The domestic real - estate market is expected to be stabilized. The Central Economic Work Conference in December focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, and in 2025, the decline in real - estate indicators narrowed [56][58] - The growth rate of home - appliance consumption is expected to slow down in 2026. Although there is still policy support in 2026, the growth rate will slow down both domestically and overseas [60][61] - The production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China continued to grow significantly in 2025. In 2026, the growth rate will slow down due to the change in vehicle - purchase tax policy [63][68] 3.4 Inventory - Global copper inventory shows obvious regional differentiation. High prices will suppress demand in the short term, leading to an increase in social inventory. As of mid - December 2025, domestic electrolytic copper and bonded - area electrolytic copper inventories increased compared with the same period last year [71][72] - There is a concern about a short squeeze in the LME copper market. In 2026, there will be a supply - demand gap in the global copper market. The growth rate of global refined copper production will slow down to 0.9% in 2026, and the demand growth rate will slow down to 2.1%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of 150,000 tons [73][74]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of "overall surplus and structural differentiation." Supply will be concentrated in the northwest, with slow clearance of backward capacity. Demand growth will slow down, mainly driven by polysilicon but limited by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. Electricity cost is the core variable, with the northwest having a stable cost advantage and the southwest showing significant seasonal fluctuations. Prices are expected to fluctuate around the cost range, constrained by supply elasticity [5][7][10]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon industry is transitioning from an "excess logic" to a complex stage of "policy intervention and high - quality capacity reshaping." Supply will experience structural changes, with backward capacity facing rigid exit and high - quality N - type material in short supply. Demand will enter a platform period due to the slowdown in global photovoltaic installation growth, and the industrial chain profit needs to be redistributed downstream. The market will be in a game between the "policy bottom" and the "demand top," and price trends and basis structures will be significantly affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [5][13][17]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 2025 Market Review - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2025, the price of industrial silicon showed a significant downward trend in the first half of the year due to supply pressure, and then fluctuated widely in the second half. The price was affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest, weak downstream demand, and policy expectations [25]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market in 2025 went through four stages: shock, decline, sharp rise, and high - level consolidation. Policy factors, supply - demand imbalances, and market sentiment were the main drivers of price changes [28][29][30]. 3.2 Cost and Profit - **Power Cost**: Power cost is the most important variable in the cost of industrial silicon. The southwest has obvious seasonal power cost changes, while the northwest has a relatively stable power cost structure. In the future, the power cost advantage in Xinjiang will be more obvious through the source - network - load - storage integration model, and Yunnan and Sichuan have their own green power utilization models, but there are still challenges in power supply stability [34][35][36]. - **Silicon Coal**: In 2025, the price of silicon coal dropped by 30% - 45%, but in 2026, the downward space is limited. If the coal price stabilizes and rebounds, it will support the cost of industrial silicon. The price of silicon coal is expected to rebound to 1600 - 1800 yuan/ton if the "anti - involution" policy promotes industry self - discipline [43][44]. - **Overall Cost and Profit**: The cost of industrial silicon is relatively stable in 2026. The northwest has a lower cost, while the southwest has higher costs in the dry season. The profit level in 2025 was differentiated, and the industry profit rebounded slightly in the second half of the year [49]. 3.3 Supply - **Excess Pattern and Slow Clearance**: The industrial silicon supply in 2026 will maintain the pattern of overall surplus and structural differentiation. There is a large amount of backward capacity, and the market has difficulty in quickly clearing it due to policy - market differences and regional interest differentiation [57][58][62]. - **New Capacity**: New capacity will still be concentrated in the northwest in 2026. However, due to the impact of industrial silicon profits, the construction and commissioning of some new capacity may be postponed [67]. 3.4 Demand - **Polysilicon**: The demand for polysilicon in 2026 will be affected by the slowdown in photovoltaic installation growth. The supply of polysilicon will experience structural changes, with backward capacity being eliminated and high - quality N - type material in short supply. The price and basis structure will be affected by policy implementation and technological iteration [69][74][131]. - **Organic Silicon**: The demand for organic silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. The supply - demand balance is expected to be repaired, and exports will drive the growth of organic silicon demand [104][107]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The demand for silicon in the aluminum alloy industry will remain stable in 2026. Although the production of the aluminum alloy industry is growing, the consumption of primary industrial silicon is limited, and new energy vehicle consumption has limited impact on the demand for industrial silicon [112]. - **Export**: The export of industrial silicon is expected to remain stable in 2026. Overseas markets mainly purchase on - demand, and some overseas orders have been transferred to China due to cost and quality advantages [122]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the supply of industrial silicon will increase slightly, and the demand growth rate will be about 5%. The supply - demand gap will widen slightly, and the surplus pattern will be slightly improved [125][126]. - **Polysilicon**: In 2026, the supply - demand situation of polysilicon will be affected by policies. If the capacity is tightened as expected, the market will be in a tight - balance state; otherwise, it will remain in an oversupply state [127][129]. 3.6 Market Outlook - **Industrial Silicon**: In 2026, the industrial silicon market will continue to be in a slightly surplus state. Prices will fluctuate around the cost range, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes brought about by short - term supply - demand mismatches and policy implementation [10][130]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market will be in a game between policy implementation, capacity clearance, and global installation demand. The price will seek a balance among the "policy bottom," "demand top," and "quality difference," and the market may be in a tight - balance state [17][131].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The financial options market in 2025 showed structural changes and sentiment differentiation. The market preference was towards growth - style index options, and the mid - term market sentiment remained optimistic. The implied volatility was relatively mild, and the advantage of option sellers increased. In 2026, the volatility center may rise slightly, and certain option strategies are recommended [4][111][113]. - The performance of option strategies in 2025 varied. The quantitative timing strategy based on the premium and discount of synthetic underlying assets achieved stable returns, while the "foolish" double - selling strategy had relatively large risks [5][112]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 2025 Financial Options Market Operation - **Option Market Activity**: The domestic option market had 12 listed financial option varieties. By November 30, 2025, the total trading volume was 1.717 billion contracts, the average daily trading volume was 7.8047 million contracts, the total trading turnover was 1.641327 trillion yuan, and the average daily trading turnover was 7.46 billion yuan. The average daily trading volume, turnover, and open interest increased by about 12%, 21%, and 13% respectively compared to the same period in 2024. The growth in turnover mainly came from the third quarter, and the growth was mainly driven by the CSI 1000 Index Option and the dual - innovation options [12][14]. - **Market Preference for Growth - Style Index Options**: Measured by average daily turnover, the CSI 1000 Index Option had the highest market share at 33.69%, followed by the Southern CSI 500ETF Option at 19.25%. The market still preferred growth - style index options with larger underlying index fluctuations, while the share of the SSE 50ETF Option continued to decline to about 6% [17]. - **Position PCR Indicating Optimistic Mid - term Market Sentiment**: The position PCR values of major financial options mostly followed the fluctuations of the underlying index in 2025. The average position PCR values of IO and MO options increased significantly compared to 2024, indicating an increase in the proportion of investors selling put options. Although the position PCR values have declined recently, they are still at medium - to - high historical levels, suggesting that the mid - term market sentiment remains optimistic [22][23]. 3.2 2025 Stock Index Option Market Volatility - **Historical Volatility in a Similar "M" Shape**: The historical volatility of the three major index option underlying assets showed a similar "M" shape in 2025, with the upward - moving period significantly shorter than the downward - moving period. The volatility center and range narrowed compared to 2024 [26]. - **Implied Volatility More Moderate than in Previous Years**: The implied volatility of options also showed a similar "M" shape, but the upward - pulse time was shorter and the peak - reaching time was earlier. The implied volatility was more moderate than in previous years, which was related to the increasing institutionalization of the market and the regulatory authorities' advocacy of a slow - bull market [32][39]. - **Enhanced Advantage of Option Sellers in 2025**: The advantage of option sellers was enhanced in 2025, as the frequency and average amplitude of option implied volatility premiums increased compared to 2024, and the implied volatility mostly showed a downward - trending pattern [40][44]. - **Low Skewness Throughout the Year**: The proportion of negative skewness in implied volatility of options increased in 2025, mainly due to the expansion of stock market neutral products. Currently, the skewness of the CSI 1000 Index Option has recovered to a medium - to - high level in the past two years, while that of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Index Options is still at a slightly low - medium level [45][48]. - **2026 Volatility Outlook**: In 2026, the implied volatility is currently low, and the volatility center may rise slightly, but it is expected that the peak will not exceed that of 2025. The implied volatility of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 Index Options is expected to range between 12% - 30%, and that of the CSI 1000 Index Option between 17% - 40%. Local peaks may occur in the first and third quarters [52]. 3.3 Option Strategy Review and Recommendation - **Quantitative Timing Strategy Based on Premium and Discount of Option Synthetic Underlying Assets**: This strategy can achieve a 23.6% absolute return in 2025, with a maximum drawdown of only 4.81%, far superior to the CSI 500 Index and corresponding stock index futures [60]. - **Performance Review of Classic Option Strategies**: - **Bull Spread Strategy**: In a slow - bull market, this strategy performs well. Although it slightly underperforms the underlying index, it significantly reduces the maximum drawdown [63][70]. - **Selling Put Option Strategy**: Except during the sharp rise in late September 2024, this strategy can generally outperform the underlying index, and the decline amplitude is relatively smaller [73][77]. - **Covered Call Strategy**: In 2025, this strategy performs better in IO and HO options with more stable underlying fluctuations, but underperforms in MO options with larger fluctuations. It may not be able to outperform the underlying index in a rapidly rising market [85][89]. - **Bullish Three - Leg Strategy**: In a slow - bull market, this strategy is a good alternative to index long positions. In case of a rapid market rise, the problem of underperformance can be improved by adjusting the position ratio [90]. - **Traditional Double - Selling Strategy**: For investors with poor timing ability, the SSE 50 Index Option is the most suitable for the double - selling strategy. The double - selling strategy for MO options has the most unstable returns and relatively large maximum drawdowns [98]. 3.4 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In 2025, the trading turnover of the financial options market increased, mainly driven by growth - style options. The position PCR indicated optimistic mid - term sentiment, the implied volatility was moderate, and option strategies achieved stable returns. Some classic strategies can reduce drawdowns and smooth the capital curve [106][111][112]. - **Outlook**: In 2026, the volatility center may rise slightly. Sellers of out - of - the - money put options are worthy of attention, the bullish three - leg strategy can be used to replace traditional futures long positions, and the strategy of shorting volatility is also worth considering [113][114].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the bull market in precious metals will continue to advance, driven by the dual engines of "financial attributes + industrial demand", with significant differentiation among varieties. Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, while silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance" [2][115][116]. - Gold is expected to have a high of around $5000 per ounce in 2026. It is recommended to use gold as the core strategic defensive variety in the 2026 asset portfolio to achieve risk hedging and value preservation [2][115]. - Silver's price increase space will be more prominent in 2026, with greater room for imagination. Its high - volatility characteristics are expected to continue [2][116]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Gold: Multifaceted Hedge and Long - Term Allocation Value Remains - **Global "Broad Fiscal" Cycle Resonance**: In 2026, major global economies are expected to continue the broad fiscal cycle, with the US, Europe, and Japan showing different fiscal expansion patterns. The US's "Big and Beautiful Act" will increase the deficit, and the deficit rate is expected to rise to about 7.0% in 2026. Germany will drive the mild expansion of the euro - zone's fiscal policy, and Japan will see a moderate increase in the deficit rate. The broad fiscal cycle has intensified concerns about fiscal sustainability, pushing up long - term bond yields and eroding the credit of major currencies, highlighting the value of gold as a "ballast stone" [7][9][10][11]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut Cycle**: The Fed will continue the interest rate cut cycle in 2026, with a "stable at first, then rapid" rhythm. Economic and debt pressures will drive the need for a low - interest - rate environment. The change of the Fed chairman will be a key variable, with a dovish new chairman expected to accelerate the interest rate cut process. The Fed's technical balance - sheet expansion and its combination with the US Treasury's debt issuance strategy will inject liquidity and reduce the financing and holding costs of precious metals. However, concerns about the Fed's policy independence remain [24][33][43][44]. - **US Mid - term Elections**: The "pendulum effect" of the 2026 US mid - term elections will reduce trade and geopolitical fluctuations. Although the overall tariff risk is lower, short - term attention should be paid to potential tariff increases in key industries, and the risk of sudden outbreaks in Sino - US trade conflicts still exists [48][52][54]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Global central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, which is a long - term strategic adjustment of the currency reserve structure. Emerging market central banks, as the main buyers, still have room to increase their gold reserves. In 2026, central bank net purchases are expected to remain above 800 tons, providing strong support for the gold market [56][61][62]. - **Gold Investment Scale**: In 2025, gold investment demand was strong, but the current proportion of gold in global asset management is still low, and there is still a large space for growth in gold investment scale [63][64][67]. Silver: Dual - Engine Drive of "Industry + Finance" and Strategic Resource Value Highlights - **Supply Constraints**: Global silver supply growth is sluggish. Structural factors such as the decline in mine grade, the lack of new large - scale silver mines, and the fact that silver is mostly a by - product of other metals limit production growth. In 2026, the production of associated silver may be affected by the smelting restrictions of copper, lead, and zinc [70][72][75]. - **Diversified Demand**: - **Industrial Demand**: The demand for silver in the photovoltaic, automotive, and data center and artificial intelligence industries is expected to continue to grow. The photovoltaic industry will drive silver consumption due to the increase in installed capacity, the automotive industry will see increased demand due to electrification, and the development of data centers and artificial intelligence will also boost silver demand [82][86][87]. - **Investment Demand**: In 2025, the investment demand for silver increased significantly, and the position of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, continued to rise. There is still room for the position to return to the historical high, which will provide upward momentum for the silver price [96]. - **Supply - Demand Gap**: Since 2021, the global silver market has been in a supply shortage pattern, and this situation is expected to continue in 2026, providing upward momentum for the silver price [69][101][102]. - **Low Inventory**: In 2025, the inventories of major silver markets were at multi - year lows. Low inventory will amplify price fluctuations and may trigger a squeeze - out market [103][105][108]. - **Strategic Resource Attribute**: Major countries around the world have introduced policies to manage silver as a strategic resource, which will have a complex impact on the silver price and supply - demand structure in the short and long term [109][110][111]. 2026 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold will maintain a volatile upward trend, and it is recommended to use it as a core strategic defensive variety in the asset portfolio. Silver will show a strong pattern driven by both "industry + finance", with greater price increase potential and high - volatility characteristics [115][116].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The consumption of copper is under short - term pressure, while supply concerns and macro - expectations jointly boost the copper futures market. It is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2602 closed at 93,180 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, down 1.05% week - on - week. The overall trend of Shanghai copper this week was volatile. The over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, pressure on China's November fixed - asset investment and real estate, and accelerated contraction of the eurozone's December manufacturing PMI affected the market. Although the expectation of US interest rate cuts boosted the market, there were still disturbances in reality. The consumption was weak, and the copper spot premium dropped significantly [2]. 2. Operating Logic - **Macro**: US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool. The Bank of Japan emphasized prudent actions in the future. China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction [2][39][42]. - **Supply**: The port inventory of copper concentrates increased week - on - week but was lower year - on - year. The BM negotiation was still deadlocked. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year, with the impact of previous maintenance restored [2]. - **Demand**: The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year - on - year last week. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to decline, but the local price rose slightly this week [2]. - **Inventory**: The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate [2]. 3. Influencing Factors Analysis Price Data - The consumption was weak, and the spot premium dropped significantly. The LME copper 0 - 3M premium weakened week - on - week [11][12]. Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by 0.57 dollars/ton to - 43.65 dollars/ton week - on - week and remained at a low level. The port inventory of copper concentrates was 680,000 tons, an increase of 16,000 tons week - on - week but lower year - on - year. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased week - on - week. The domestic electrolytic copper production in December was expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products from January to November was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The spot inventory of electrolytic copper continued to increase week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased slightly. LME copper inventory decreased with a high cancellation ratio, while COMEX inventory continued to accumulate. The operation of refined copper rods was restricted and was expected to continue to decline next week. The retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China from December 1 - 14 decreased by 4% year - on - year and increased by 1% compared with the same period last month. The production of photovoltaic modules in December was expected to continue to decline. The production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [16][19][22]. Macroeconomic Data - China's November new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened. The eurozone's December manufacturing PMI accelerated its contraction. US inflation slowed down more than expected, and employment continued to cool [39][42][43]. 4. Recommended Strategy - Considering the over - expected slowdown of US inflation, continued cooling of employment, the Bank of Japan's emphasis on prudent actions in the future, weak consumption, significant decline in copper spot premium, and low year - on - year port inventory of copper concentrates, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For glass in 2026, it is expected that both supply and demand will decline. The demand decline rate is expected to narrow, and the industry profit pressure caused by the real - estate chain's capital problem remains to be resolved. Attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side, and the cost line supports the price. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted dynamically according to the cost [5][64]. - For soda ash in 2026, it is expected that supply will decrease and demand will increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the digestion of the high - inventory contradiction still faces challenges. The differentiation between light and heavy soda ash may continue, and the price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season [6][121]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Glass 2026 Annual Report 3.1.1 Glass 2025 Review: Industry Clearance Game under Weak Demand - In 2025, weak demand was the fundamental contradiction in the glass industry. The over - supply pattern and high upstream and mid - stream inventory pressures led to the spot price fluctuating around the cost. Throughout the year, the price showed a downward - rebound - downward trend, and the inventory transfer from upstream to mid - stream was an important driver for the price increase [14][15]. 3.1.2 Glass 2026 Outlook - **Demand**: The decline in glass demand in 2026 is expected to narrow. Real - estate demand will continue to decline but at a slower pace. The growth rate of the automobile industry will slow down, and the output of home appliances may decline year - on - year. It is expected that the apparent demand for glass in 2026 will decline by 5% [21][26]. - **Supply**: The glass supply is expected to decline first and then increase in 2026. The overall supply is expected to be around 5515 tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 4.5%. The industry may experience further clearance in the short term due to weak demand and high inventory, and the cost may rise in the long term due to energy transformation policies [54][60]. 3.1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, both supply and demand of float glass are expected to decline. More attention should be paid to the valuation elasticity brought by the supply side. The absolute price floor is around 950 yuan/ton, fluctuating with the cost. The FG05 contract valuation refers to [1000, 1280] and is adjusted according to the cost [64]. 3.2 Soda Ash 2026 Report 3.2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Price Review: The Decline of the Soda Ash Price Center Gradually Slowed - In the first half of 2025, the soda ash price declined due to over - supply and falling raw material costs. In the second half, the industry moved from over - supply to a wide - balance state, and the price stopped falling and rebounded. The inventory of the soda ash industry first increased and then decreased [72]. 3.2.2 Soda Ash 2026 Outlook - **Supply**: The soda ash industry is still in the capacity expansion cycle in 2026, but the production increase rhythm slows down. New production capacity at the end of 2025 and the beginning of 2026 will increase the supply pressure, and the industry may continue to clear capacity. The valuation is expected to be repaired by supply - side adjustment, and the upper limit of the valuation should be concerned about the resumption of marginal production capacity [99][101]. - **Light Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the demand for light soda ash was strong. In 2026, it is expected that the traditional downstream will maintain a growth rate of 4.5 - 5.0%, and the demand from lithium carbonate and exports will continue to increase. The weekly average apparent demand for light soda ash is expected to be around 34 - 34.5 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 7% [106]. - **Heavy Soda Ash Demand**: In 2025, the supply and demand of photovoltaic glass both declined. In 2026, the global new photovoltaic installation growth rate is expected to slow down, and the rigid demand for photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. The daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is expected to fluctuate between 8.5 - 9.3 tons per day, and the annual production is expected to decline by about 1% to 3228 tons, corresponding to a rigid demand of 581 tons for heavy soda ash [111][113]. - **Import and Export**: In 2025, China's soda ash exports increased significantly, and imports decreased sharply. In 2026, it is expected that the large - scale export and closed import window pattern will continue, and the annual net export volume is expected to be between 240 - 260 tons [117][118]. 3.2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - In 2026, the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease and demand to increase, and the fundamentals will be marginally repaired. However, the high - inventory problem still needs to be resolved. The price may be under pressure throughout the year, with a possible phased improvement during the maintenance season. The spot price of soda ash may continue to be in the industry cost range, and attention should be paid to the lower and upper limits of the valuation and the seasonal supply decline during the maintenance season [121].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, the market logic is expected to shift from liquidity-driven to profit-recovery - driven. The strategic adjustment of "building a strong domestic market" and the "anti - involution" policy will improve domestic demand and deflation expectations. Multiple leading indicators suggest that PPI may enter an upward channel, and corporate profit recovery is expected, but the repair strength may be weaker than in 2021. The market may continue to re - balance in the short - term, with the large - cap value style having an advantage, and profit - recovery opportunities will be the key theme for the A - share market in 2026 [4]. Summary by Directory I. Indexes Break through the Oscillation Pattern 1.1 Market Review: Ample Liquidity as the Core Driver of Index Market - In the 2025 annual report, it was predicted that the index market would show an "N" shape, driven by the ample liquidity from the "rush - to - export" expectation. However, China's exports maintained strong resilience after the "rush - to - export" trend cooled, and the obvious profit - repair trend was delayed. The A - share market oscillated in Q1, adjusted in April due to Trump's "reciprocal tariff" remarks, and then rose as policies took effect. In Q3, multiple factors supported the market, and in Q4, the driving force shifted from liquidity to profit - repair expectation [8]. 1.2 Industry Performance: Precious Metals Lead the Non - ferrous Metals Industry - In 2025, industry performance was significantly differentiated. Precious - metal - related non - ferrous metals led the increase due to Trump's tariff policy, the Middle East situation, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. As of December 16, communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had high gains, while food and beverage and coal had losses. Different styles dominated at different times, and the large - cap value style became attractive in Q4 [11]. 1.3 Index Basis: Multiple Factors Lead to Increased Index Discount - The A - share market's trading activity increased in 2025, and the small - and medium - cap style was strong. The market - neutral strategy's scale expanded, increasing the hedging demand for stock - index futures. High dividend payouts and the decline of snowball products also contributed to the deepening discount of stock - index futures [13][14]. II. Market Valuation: Focus on Profit - Driven Valuation Digestion 2.1 CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes: Significant Valuation Repair - As of December 16, the price - to - book ratios of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes were at relatively high historical levels, at 72.84% and 50.04% of the past 10 - year levels respectively [19]. 2.2 SSE 50 and CSI 300 Indexes: Valuation Divergence - As of December 16, the price - to - earnings ratios of the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes were at relatively high historical levels, while the price - to - book ratios were relatively lower. This divergence was due to the valuation recovery since September 2024, and future profit levels will be crucial for digestion and repair [22]. 2.3 Index Crowding: Large - Cap Value Style May Continue to Dominate - The index crowding degree reflects market allocation enthusiasm. In 2025, the small - and medium - cap growth style was popular in most of the year, but the large - cap value style became more attractive in Q4 due to its low valuation and high profit certainty [24][25]. 2.4 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness: Lower Priority of Relative Valuation Attention - The stock - bond cost - effectiveness indicator shows that the stock market is at a relatively low level. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the narrowing of the China - US monetary - policy cycle gap, the domestic interest - rate cut window is opening. In the current situation, the priority of relative valuation attention can be shifted, and more attention can be paid to other driving factors [28][31]. 2.5 Valuation Summary - After the continuous valuation repair in 2025, the A - share market's relative valuation advantage over bonds has weakened but is not at an extreme level. There is a differentiation in the market, and the large - cap value style is expected to continue to dominate [33]. III. Supply and Demand Drive, Profit Level Recovery Expected 3.1 Strategic Adjustment of "Insufficient Domestic Demand" Response, Marginal Relief of Consumption Downturn Expected - China's economic problem has been insufficient domestic demand. The policy response is shifting from short - term demand stimulation to long - term market cultivation and system construction. The "construction of a strong domestic market" aims to improve residents' purchasing power and consumption confidence, which is expected to relieve the consumption downturn [34][35]. 3.2 "Anti - Involution" Improves Deflation Expectations, Profit Level Recovery Expected - PPI is expected to enter an upward channel in 2026 and turn positive year - on - year around mid - year. Fiscal, credit, and monetary data all indicate a turning point in the industrial - product price cycle. The profit level has shown an initial recovery trend [41][42]. IV. Asset Allocation Transfer Signs Appear, Capital Account Pressure May Continue to Ease 4.1 Interest - Rate Decline and Dividend Improvement Drive Asset Allocation Transfer - In 2025, the LPR was lowered, and bank deposit rates decreased, making deposits less attractive. At the same time, listed companies increased shareholder returns. As a result, funds flowed from the banking system to the non - banking financial sector, bringing incremental liquidity to the A - share market [50][53]. 4.2 Change in Dominant Factors of the US Dollar, Capital and Financial Account Pressure May Ease - The US dollar's role is changing from a counter - cyclical asset to a pro - cyclical asset due to the expansion of US debt and geopolitical risks. The weakening of the US dollar is expected to support the RMB exchange rate and ease the pressure on China's capital and financial accounts [58][61]. 4.3 Exports Maintain Resilience, Current Account May Face Pressure in H1 2026 - China's exports are expected to remain stable in 2026, with a "low - then - high" growth pattern. Exports may face pressure in H1 due to a high base in 2025 and difficulties in the US market's import recovery. However, the diversification of the export market and the upgrade of export - product competitiveness will provide support [64][67]. V. Summary: Profit - Level Repair Strength May Be the Key Driving Factor - In 2026, the market's core driving force is expected to shift to profit repair. Policies will improve domestic demand and deflation expectations, and multiple indicators suggest PPI may rise and corporate profits may recover. Asset allocation transfer and a favorable capital environment will support the market. The A - share market is expected to rise in an oscillatory manner, with the large - cap value style being attractive in the short - term [72]. - Short - term strategy: The index may continue to oscillate, and the previous long - IF and short - IM hedging portfolio is recommended to be held. Directional traders can enter the market at low prices based on profit - repair expectations. - Medium - and long - term strategy: The current valuation repair is ahead of profit recovery. The profit - recovery situation will be crucial for the market. The stock - index market may see a resonance between profit and valuation in 2026 [73].

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251214 [1] Core Views - The LME copper squeeze and Fed rate cuts boost the market, and attention should be paid to the central bank's decision next Sunday [1] Price Data - The Shanghai copper market is strong, with negative consumption feedback, and the copper spot premium has declined [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with a slight week - on - week decrease [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.22/ton week - on - week to - $43.08/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 13,700 tons week - on - week to 763,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [23] - From January to November, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [24] - This week, both the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [27] - LME copper inventory continues to accumulate but the cancellation ratio remains high, and COMEX inventory continues to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The strong market significantly suppressed consumption [31] - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 17% year - on - year and 10% compared with the same period last month [32] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In November in China, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - The eurozone's CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November [43] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it, and it still expects one rate cut next year [45]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ continued to increase production in 2025, leading to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward pressure on international oil prices. Although production increase will be suspended in Q1 2026, there is still a possibility of resuming production increase later, and the decline in oil prices in 2026 is expected to narrow [5][11]. - The growth rate of production capacity and output of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol in the polyester industry chain has slowed down, while demand will continue to show a slight growth trend, and the supply - demand relationship will improve. The low - price and low - profit operation situation of the industry will change, and the price center is expected to move up [11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - **PX**: In 2025, PX production decreased from February to April due to many device overhauls. From August to November, the operating rate was stable, and the cumulative production decline narrowed. The cumulative import volume increased slightly in the first 11 months. The supply - demand situation was good, with inventory decreasing from February to July and slightly increasing from August to September. The price fluctuated, with a cumulative decline of 1.5% as of early December [18][20]. - **PTA**: Three new PTA devices were put into operation from June to October, with a total capacity of 8.4 million tons/year. The average operating rate in the first 11 months decreased by 4.2 percentage points compared with last year, and the production growth rate was not high. The demand was good, especially from October to November. The social inventory decreased significantly, and the price showed a wide - range shock pattern, with a cumulative decline of about 4.5% as of December 11 [22][24]. - **MEG**: Three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation in 2025, with a capacity growth rate of 5.3%. The supply growth was mainly due to the increase in the operating rate. The inventory showed a process of de - stocking and re - stocking. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of more than 20% [27][30]. - **Short Fiber**: There was no new device put into operation in 2025, and the production increased slightly compared with last year. The export growth rate was high, but the domestic consumption demand was weak. The price showed a downward trend, with a cumulative decline of about 8% [32][34]. - **Bottle Chip**: The capacity expansion of bottle chips entered the end in 2025. Although the capacity growth rate slowed down, there was still a large supply pressure. The operating rate continued to decline, but the production increased by 6.7% in the first 11 months. The price showed a decline of 7 - 8%, and the profit was still poor [35][37]. II. Pay Attention to OPEC+'s Production Policy: Loose Crude Oil Supply is Hard to Resolve - **Suspension of Production Increase in Q1, Possible Resumption Later**: OPEC+ started to increase production from April 2025, with a cumulative increase of 2.877 million barrels/day. It decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026, but there is a possibility of resuming production increase in 2026. The three major institutions have continuously raised the global crude oil supply forecast, while the demand forecast is relatively stable, resulting in a loose supply situation [39][41]. - **The Expected Production Increase May Materialize, Still Having a Bearish Impact on Oil Prices**: The global crude oil supply is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Although the supply - demand imbalance is not obvious in the US crude oil data for now, it is expected to be reflected in the inventory data in 2026. The US oil and gas rig count decreased in 2025, but it did not have a significant impact on production. The international oil price was under pressure in 2025, and it is expected to be relatively strong in Q1 2026 but may be suppressed if production increase resumes [44][56]. III. Some Links in the Industry Chain Enter the Production Vacuum Period, and the Supply Growth Rate Will Significantly Decline - **Overall Slowdown in Capacity Growth Rate, Operating Rate Becoming the Key Factor Affecting Supply**: In 2025, there was no new PX device, and three new PTA devices and three new ethylene glycol devices were put into operation. In 2026, the new PX devices are expected to have limited supply increments due to late commissioning. There is no PTA new device plan in 2026, and the supply pressure will be reduced. The PX operating rate has little room for improvement, while the PTA operating rate has the potential to increase [57][66]. - **Ethylene Glycol New Devices are Planned to be Put into Operation Late, and the Supply Growth Rate is Expected to Decline**: In 2025, the ethylene glycol capacity increased by 5.3%. In 2026, there are many new device plans, but most of them are planned to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a possible delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate increased in 2025, but the absolute value is not high. It is expected that the supply growth rate will decline in 2026 [72][81]. IV. Demand is Rising Steadily, and the Adverse Factors Affecting Demand are Weakening - **Steady Growth of Polyester Capacity, Good Demand Supporting High Operating Rate**: In 2025, the polyester capacity increased by 5.5%, and the operating rate increased by 1.5 percentage points. The production increased by 7.6% in the first 11 months. It is expected that the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately in 2026, but the growth rate will slow down [82][86]. - **Polyester Raw Material Inventory Shows Seasonal Fluctuations, and Ethylene Glycol Inventory Rises Rapidly**: The PTA inventory increased in the first quarter of 2025 and then decreased. In 2026, the supply growth mainly depends on the increase in the operating rate. The ethylene glycol inventory decreased from March to August and then increased rapidly from October to November. In 2026, the supply growth rate is expected to decline, and the supply - demand situation will improve [90][93]. - **Profit Redistribution Will Still Occur, and the Industrial Chain Profits May Transfer to the Middle and Upper Reaches**: In 2025, the production profits of PTA and bottle chips were poor, while those of long - fiber and short - fiber were acceptable. In 2026, the short - fiber and bottle - chip capacities will increase, which will have a bearish impact on processing fees, but the bottle - chip production profit is expected to improve slightly [94][98]. - **The Base of Polyester Exports is High, and the Pressure for Further Growth Increases**: In 2025, the exports of major polyester products increased year - on - year, with bottle chips having the largest export volume increase and short fibers having the highest export growth rate. The export destinations are relatively scattered. In 2026, the long - fiber may face inventory pressure, while the short - fiber inventory pressure is not large [99][109]. - **Industrial Demand is Boosted, and the Downstream Operating Indicators Will Increase**: The average operating rate of pure polyester yarn is basically the same as last year, while that of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has decreased. With the growth of demand and the slowdown of capacity growth, the operating rate and production efficiency of the industry are expected to improve [110]. V. Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Keeps Growing, and the Export Market is Expected to Recover - **The Growth Rate of Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel is Not High, and it Will Maintain a Low - Growth Trend**: In 2025, the growth rate of China's social consumer goods retail sales was low, and the growth rate of textile and apparel consumption was also low in the first half of the year but rebounded in the second half. The domestic textile and apparel consumption is expected to maintain a growth momentum [115][119]. - **The Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations is Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's exports maintained positive growth despite the severe external environment. The textile and apparel exports decreased year - on - year, but it is expected to recover in 2026 [120][123]. VI. Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In 2025, the continuous production increase of OPEC+ led to an oversupply of crude oil and a downward trend in oil prices. The prices of the polyester industry chain were affected by oil prices and supply - demand relationships, with PX and PTA performing better than oil, and ethylene glycol being the weakest. The industrial chain profits were generally low, with PTA and bottle chips having poor profits [125][128]. - **Outlook**: In Q1 2026, the international oil price is expected to strengthen, but there is still pressure from production increase later. The supply - demand situation of the polyester industry chain will gradually improve, with supply growth pressure easing and demand growing steadily. The industrial chain profits are expected to transfer from the downstream to PTA and PX, and the price center is expected to move up [129][131].