铜周报 20250914 基本面支撑有限，宏观向上， 沪铜偏强 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格数据 | 04 | 基本面数据 | 07 | | 03 宏观经济数据 | 19 | | | 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 下游采购情绪较低落，铜现货升贴水承压 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比略有扩大 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.45美元/吨至-41.3美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增0.44万吨至69.27万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差周环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 9月 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Newly harvested grains will increase in production, with a significant year - on - year increase in total supply, a slight year - on - year decline in total consumption, and a narrowing production - demand gap. The annual balance is expected to be mainly in a balanced state. - In the international market, the supply - demand pattern of corn in the new year is expected to be generally loose, with production reaching a record high, consumption increasing steadily, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio slightly decreasing [4][67][68]. Summary by Directory Supply Side - In the 2025/26 season, the expected increase in new crop production is strong, and the new total supply is expected to increase year - on - year by about 12.2%, reaching 27344 million tons [12][31]. - For new crop production expectations, the sown area in 2025 is generally stable, with a slight decrease in the three northeastern provinces and one autonomous region. The national average yield per unit area is expected to increase by 10.7% year - on - year, and the national corn output is estimated to be about 26644 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 9.6%. The planting cost has decreased, and the corn collection and port cost in Heilongjiang is about 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton [13][14][16]. - For imports, it is expected that the 2025/26 corn imports will not exceed the quota, currently estimated at 7 million tons. The imports will feature strict control, multiple sources, and low volume [24]. - For other grain substitutions, the import of barley in 2025/26 is expected to continue to decline, and the annual import volume may fall below 1 million tons; the import of sorghum is expected to be low - volume with a slight recovery, reaching 5.5 - 6.5 million tons [33][37]. Demand Side - In 2025/26, the feed consumption of corn is expected to reach 176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons, a decline of 1.13%; the industrial consumption is expected to reach 79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons, an increase of 1.28% [38]. - For feed demand, the overall feed demand is expected to decline slightly. Pig feed consumption is expected to be stable with a slight decline, and poultry feed demand is expected to remain stable [44]. - For industrial consumption, it is expected to increase slightly. The demand for corn starch may increase, while the alcohol consumption may continue to decline [52][53]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - For the global supply - demand pattern, in 2025/26, the global corn production is expected to reach 1288.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the total consumption is expected to reach 1289.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; the ending inventory is expected to be 283 million tons, a decrease of 570,000 tons compared to the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio is 22.07%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The overall supply - demand structure is expected to be balanced and slightly loose [57][58]. - For the US supply - demand situation, in 2025/26, the US corn production is expected to reach 425.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%; the total consumption is expected to reach 332.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the export volume is expected to reach 73.03 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.95%; the ending inventory is expected to be 53.77 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 62.2% [61]. - For the substitution balance structure of the Chinese corn market after inventory reduction, in 2025/26, the sown area is expected to be 36.29 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of about 30,000 hectares, an increase of 0.08%; the output is expected to be about 266.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.63 million tons, an increase of 9.6%; the import volume is estimated at about 7 million tons; the feed consumption is expected to reach 176 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 200,000 tons; the industrial consumption is expected to reach 79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1 million tons; the state - owned inventory is expected to remain stable at 41 million tons [63][64][65]. Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: The international corn supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, while the domestic supply will increase significantly, and the consumption will decline slightly, with the annual balance mainly in a balanced state [67][68]. - Strategy: - During the farmers' grain - selling period, it is recommended to short the C2601 contract on rallies. - During the traders' selling period, if the futures price falls below 2000 yuan/ton during the grain - selling season and most of the trade inventory has been built, the futures price may strengthen. - For unilateral investors, it is recommended to short the C2601 contract on rallies during the grain - selling season. - For spot enterprises, traders are advised to sell - hedge the built inventory on rallies, build inventory gradually on dips, and sell the inventory gradually during the selling season when the price rebounds; downstream grain - using enterprises should maintain a safe inventory, stock up more at low prices during the grain - selling season, and sell - hedge long - term inventory on rallies to lock in risks [6][69].

白糖周报 内外盘下跌趋势仍在 徐亚光 从业资格证号：F03093235 投资咨询证号：Z0017169 | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周度核心要点及策略 | 03 | 糖市周内要闻 | 05 | | 03 | | | | | 糖市相关数据 | 08 | | | GUOLIAN F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 目录 CONTENTS 2 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度核心要点及策略 3 白糖核心要点及策略 | 因素 | 价格 | 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年7月份我国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加31.82万吨。2025年1-7月份我国进口食糖177.78万吨，同比增 加5.39万吨，增幅3.12%。不过加工糖和国产糖错峰供应，一定程度上缓解了集中上市带来的冲击，使得市场供需节奏更加平稳，持续关 | | 供应 | 向下 | 注进口糖到港情况。2025年7月我国进口糖浆和白砂糖预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计15.97万吨，同比减 ...

短期区间震荡，等待新花收购 F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 徐亚光 从业资格证号：F03093235 投资咨询证号：Z0017169 GUOLIAN 棉花周报 目录 CONTENTS 01 周度核心要点及策略 2 02 周度数据图表 4 全球供需平衡表 | 全球 | 2020/21年度 | 2021/22年度 | 2022/23年度 | 2023/24年度 | 2024/25年度 | 2025/26年度(8月) | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期初库存(万吨) | 1716 | 1583 | 1543 | 1651.6 | 1606 | 1634 | 28 | | 产量(万吨) | 2483 | 2494 | 2539 | 2459.9 | 2594 | 2539.2 | -54.8 | | 进口(万吨) | 1060 | 940 | 820 | 958 | 925 | 980 | 55 | | 总供应量 | 5259 | 5017 | 4902 | 5069. 5 | 5125 | 5153 ...

铜周报 20250907 非农大幅低于预期，宏观降温， 铜震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 社库累库，盘面冲高、采购受抑，铜现货升水走弱 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比缩窄 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比涨0.63美元/吨至-40.85美元/吨，仍低 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 8 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周九港铜精矿库存环比减2.23万吨至68.83万吨 精废价差周环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 9月检修影响增加，加之阳极板供应紧张，9月国内电解铜产量预计环比降幅超4% 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期 ...

宏观周度观察 20250907 非农爆冷降息已定，黄金创纪录高位 | 国联期货研究所 | | | 目 录 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证监许可[2011]1773 号 | | | | | | 1. | 本周宏观观察 | | | 王娜 | 2. | 国内重点事件及重要经济数据 | | | 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 | 3. | 海外重点事件及重要经济数据 | | | | 4. | 下周重点数据/事件 | | 相关研究报告： 具体来看，我们认为有几点值得关注和思考： | 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： | | --- | | 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 | | 稳驭舟 | | 2025 年二季度宏观展望：多 | | 空拉锯，全球高波动弱增长 | | 格局深化 | | 2025 年宏观经济展望：畅通 | | 经济循环，走出低通胀 | | 2024 年中期宏观经济展望： | | 虚云散尽见真章，厚积薄发 | | 待春雷 | | 2024 年宏观经济展望：行稳 | | 方致远，温和渐进修复 | | 宏观专题：透过金融数据探 | | 寻资金运转逻辑与效 ...

镍不锈钢周报 缺乏单边驱动，关注宏观指引 20250831 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 李志超 从业资格证号：F3058314 投资咨询证号：Z0016270 | | | 1 | 01 | | 02 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 核心策略要点 | 01 | 影响因素及分析 | 03 | | 03 | | 04 | | | 资讯数据 | 04 | 数据图表 | 07 | 2 02 影响因素分析 | 3 | | --- | 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 4 4 03 资讯和数据 03 资讯数据 5 03 资讯和数据 6 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 期镍运行 7 8 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 沪不锈钢运行 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 基差、价差 9 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 7 10 镍现货运行 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 11 镍现货运行 镍端库存 数据来源：钢联、iFinD、国联期货 13 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 14 不锈钢库存 纯镍、镍铁产量和进出口 数据来源：钢联、i ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. USDA's August report shows a reduction in the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres and a 15% cut in the harvest area to 7.4 million acres. The national cotton abandonment rate rose from 14% to 21% due to drought in the Southwest. The US cotton output decreased by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, while China's cotton output increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons. The global cotton output decreased by 391,000 tons month - on - month. The cotton market was volatile this week. Spinning mills' willingness to stock up remained weak during the off - season, and the pressure of finished product inventory eased. Weaving mills' weekly stocking willingness increased slightly, and inventory pressure also decreased [6]. - The demand factor has a downward impact on cotton prices. Spinning profit expanded slightly, and the loss in the inland area decreased [6]. - The inventory factor has an upward impact on cotton prices. BCO announced that the cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The de - stocking speed continued to accelerate, reaching the fastest rate of the year. The spinning mills' industrial cotton inventory maintained a downward trend. The operation rate of inland yarn mills remained weak. In the industrial chain inventory, the finished products still had high inventory, while the raw material inventory decreased [6]. - The warehouse receipt factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. As of August 29, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 6,514, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 260,500 tons, compared with 290,400 tons on August 22 [6]. - The basis factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The basis quotation for sales in Xinjiang remained firm, and the spot transaction price fluctuated with the futures price. The basis transaction price of machine - picked cotton grade 31, double 29, with less than 2.9% impurity in the Aksu area of southern Xinjiang for the 09 contract was between 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [6]. - The cost factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The overall average cost of ginning factories this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan. In the new year, with the withdrawal of some ginning factory capacities in northern Xinjiang and the poor overall demand outlook, the opening price is not expected to be high [6]. - The macro factor has a neutral impact on cotton prices. The market believes that China will continue to avoid excessive competition. With the recent weak economic data in China, the market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The economic data in July were generally lower than expected, and the three major indicators declined simultaneously, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable production, lower - than - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", which is consistent with the seasonal decline of the manufacturing PMI in July and the negative growth of new credit in July, indicating insufficient domestic effective demand. The US entering the interest - rate cut channel was supported after Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on August 22. Powell said that the inflation risk increased in the short term, but the impact of tariffs on prices might be one - time, and there was a downward risk in the employment market. The policy interest rate is in the restrictive range, and the Fed may adjust its policy according to the changing risk balance. After the speech, the market again bet on an interest - rate cut in September, and the probability of a rate cut increased from less than 80% to around 90% [6]. - The trading strategy is that there may still be a decline in the single - side market. In the medium - term, it is advisable to build long positions at low prices. In early September, if the US non - farm and inflation data are not conducive to the US Fed's interest - rate cut channel, it will be difficult for the overall commodities, including cotton, to rise significantly under the weak reality. After the new cotton is concentrated on the market, the selling hedging pressure in the market will lead to a callback. The upward space in January is limited. In the short term, it is advisable to wait and see until the market price drops before buying the far - month contracts [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, warehouse receipts, basis, cost, and macro factors of cotton, and provides corresponding trading strategies [6] 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the global cotton supply and demand situation has changed. The initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory have different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio has decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [11]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Production Changes**: The cotton production of main producing countries such as China, the US, India, Pakistan, Australia, and Brazil has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton production decreased by 2.75% year - on - year [12]. - **Global Main Producing Countries' Demand Changes**: The cotton consumption of main consuming countries such as China, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey, and Vietnam has changed over the years. From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton consumption increased by 0.02% year - on - year [13]. - **US Cotton Situation**: The US cotton weather has little impact on production. The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive de - stocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is changing from continuous de - stocking in the past three years to appropriate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement in May and the two rounds of import - rushing in the first half of the year, the retailer inventory has risen to a high level again, weakening the continuous restocking behavior to some extent [18][19] - **Domestic New - Year Cotton Situation**: The domestic new - year cotton planting area has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and spinning mills are looking forward to import quotas. The de - stocking speed of China's cotton commercial inventory is fast. The industrial inventory of spinning mills is decreasing, the operation rate of inland yarn mills is still weak, the finished products in the industrial chain inventory remain highly stocked, and the raw material inventory is decreasing [23][25][40]

白糖周报 下跌未完 空单持有 GUOLIAN F U T U R E S 综 合 衍 生 品 服 务 平 台 3 白糖核心要点及策略 | 因素 | 价格 逻辑观点 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 据海关总署公布的数据显示，2025年7月份我国进口食糖74万吨，同比增加31.82万吨。2025年1-7月份我国进口食糖177.78万吨，同比增 向下 | | | 加5.39万吨，增幅3.12%。不过加工糖和国产糖错峰供应，一定程度上缓解了集中上市带来的冲击，使得市场供需节奏更加平稳，持续关 | | | 注进口糖到港情况。2025年7月我国进口糖浆和白砂糖预混粉(含税则号1702.90、2106.906)合计15.97万吨，同比减少6.86万吨。其中， | | | 进口糖浆、白砂糖预混粉(税则号列170290)数量为4.54万吨，同比下降18.28万吨；我国进口2106.90.6项下糖浆、白砂糖预混粉共11.43 | | | 万吨，同比增长11.42万吨，为历史同期最高。 | | 需求 | 向下 国内虽处消费旺季，但需求释放力度不及预期，加之加工糖集中供应，供给压力渐显。 | | 库存 | 中性 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report indicates that the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong, but no specific overall industry investment rating is provided [1] Core Viewpoints - With the arrival of the peak season and positive domestic and international macro - economic trends, the Shanghai copper market is expected to be strong [1] Summary by Catalog Price Data - This week, the spot premium first declined and then increased, and it is expected to remain firm next week [10] - The week - on - week change of the LME copper 0 - 3M backwardation was limited this week [11] Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.33 per ton week - on - week to - $41.48 per ton, still at a low level [16] - According to SMM, the copper concentrate inventory at nine ports increased by 148,800 tons week - on - week to 710,600 tons [19] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [20] - Due to increased maintenance in September and a shortage of anode plate supply, the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline by more than 4% month - on - month [22] - In July, the net import of refined copper in China was 178,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.7% [24] - This week, the electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and the bonded - area inventory decreased week - on - week [26] - The LME copper inventory increased, and the COMEX copper inventory continued to accumulate [28] - The operating rate of refined copper rods decreased week - on - week, with weak orders and pick - ups, and it is expected to rebound next week [29] - From August 1st to 24th, the retail volume of the new - energy passenger vehicle market in China increased by 6% year - on - year [32] - Production is based on demand, and the component output in August changed little month - on - month [33] - The planned production volume of household air - conditioners in September decreased by 12% compared with the actual volume of the same period last year [35] Macroeconomic Data - The manufacturing PMI in August increased by 0.1 points month - on - month, and the business climate improved [40] - The year - on - year increase of the US core PCE price index in July reached 2.9%, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact is still controllable [41] - The annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in the second quarter was revised up to 3.3% [44]