Report Title - Copper Weekly Report 20251214 [1] Core Views - The LME copper squeeze and Fed rate cuts boost the market, and attention should be paid to the central bank's decision next Sunday [1] Price Data - The Shanghai copper market is strong, with negative consumption feedback, and the copper spot premium has declined [9] - This week, the LME copper 0 - 3M premium first fell and then rose, with a slight week - on - week decrease [13] Fundamental Data - This week, the average price of the copper concentrate TC index decreased by $0.22/ton week - on - week to - $43.08/ton, still at a low level [15] - According to SMM, the inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports increased by 13,700 tons week - on - week to 763,900 tons [18] - The refined - scrap copper price difference strengthened week - on - week [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase by 5.96% month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year [23] - From January to November, the cumulative import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 4.883 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 4.7% [24] - This week, both the spot inventory of electrolytic copper and the bonded area inventory increased week - on - week [27] - LME copper inventory continues to accumulate but the cancellation ratio remains high, and COMEX inventory continues to accumulate [29] - The operating rate of refined copper rods continued to decline week - on - week. The strong market significantly suppressed consumption [31] - From December 1st to 7th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market decreased by 17% year - on - year and 10% compared with the same period last month [32] - The production of photovoltaic modules in December is expected to continue to decline [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in December decreased by 22.3% compared with the actual production volume in the same period last year [37] Macroeconomic Data - In November in China, the new social financing was 2.49 trillion yuan, the new RMB loans were 390 billion yuan, and the M2 - M1 gap widened [41] - The eurozone's CPI rebounded to 2.2% in November [43] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but three voting members opposed it, and it still expects one rate cut next year [45]

能源化工|年度报告 聚酯产业链年度报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 供需形势将逐步好转，低价格低利润有望修复 国联期货研究所 能源化工研究团队 交易咨询业务资格编号 贾万敬 从业资格号：F03086791 投资咨询号：Z0016549 2025.06.27 《聚酯产业链月报：油价波 动放缓，产业需求将逐步回 升》2025.07.31 慢》2025.08.29 成本和需求季节性波动，价 格或前低后高》2025.09.29 2025.10.30 将好转》2025.11.27 展望 《聚酯产业链月报：反内卷 叙事提振，价格开始回暖》 《聚酯产业链专题报告：产 OPEC+不断增产，使国际油价在2025年承压下行。尽管2026年一季度OPEC 暂停增产，后期或将重启增产政策，国际油价重新面临下行压力。2025 年国际 油价累计跌幅 19%左右，预计 2026 年跌幅将有所收窄，不过需要关注过剩预期 的兑现情况。 能扩张高峰已过，供需关系 聚酯产业链方面，PX、PTA 和乙二醇的产能和产量增速放缓，而需求将延 续小幅增长趋势，供需关系将出现好转。在产能扩张放缓，需求逐步增长的情 况下，行业低价格、低利润运行的状况将 ...

铜周报 20251207 宏观向上，LME铜注销比猛增， 沪铜预计仍强 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 5 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 铜现货流通货源偏紧，铜现货升水抬升 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 本周LME铜0-3M升水先涨后跌，周环比走弱 6 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.11美元/吨至-42.86美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增2.71万吨至75.02万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内12月电解铜产量预计环比增5.96%、同比增6.69% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 外盘强 ...

并保留我公司的一切权利 分析师：吴剑剑 从业资格证号：F03132084 投资咨询证书号：Z0020830 免责声明： 本报告中信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。 报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述期货操作的依据。由于报告在撰写时融入了研究员个人的观点和见解以及分析方法，如与国联期货发 布的其他信息有不一致及有不同的结论，未免发生疑问，本报告所载的观点并不代表国联期货公司的立场，所以请谨慎参考。我公司及其研究员对使 用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告所提供资料、分析及预测只是反映国联期货公司在本报告所载明日期的判断，可随时修改，毋需提前通知。 任何机构和个人不得进行任何形式的复制和发布 如遵循原文本意的引用 黑色周报 20251207 | | 虚高的反噬 | | --- | --- | | | 1、黑色品种，特别是焦煤，交割压力得以充分体现，上月的虚高导致 | | 策略观点 | 了当前的反噬；2、螺纹热卷下方空间不大，但向上需要政策和情绪的 发酵；3、矿石的焦点在长协谈判对市场的影响，箱体特征显著；4、 | | | 玻璃现货下跌空间有限，但期 ...

宏观|专题报告 2025 年 12 月 5 日 美联储"影子主席"的预期与现实 国联期货研究所 证监许可[2011]1773 号 从业资格证号：F3055965 投资咨询证书号：Z0001999 秩序重构浪涌急，应变守机 稳驭舟 格局深化 经济循环，走出低通胀 待春雷 王娜 相关研究报告： 2025 年中期宏观经济展望： 美联储"影子主席"的预期：在 2026 年 5 月正式任命之前，美联 储继任主席在履新前以"影子主席"身份将密集公开表态传递激进鸽派 倾向，明确主张"大幅降息是正确方向"，通过传递白宫经济意图，引 导市场关注重塑预期框架、与鹰派立场对冲削弱官方沟通效力等方式进 行预期管理，塑造降息路径预期。市场将提前交易宽松预期，大类资产 价格呈现鲜明的政策预期驱动特征：美元指数倾向于走弱，美债收益率 整体呈现下行态势，大宗商品市场重心持续上移，贵金属作为零息资产 直接受益于降息预期下的实际利率下行，叠加美元走弱，成为宽松交易 的核心标的；其余商品依托"宽松政策提振经济需求"的逻辑获得支撑。 "影子主席"与鲍威尔后续出现观点冲突，或者市场宽松预期因美联储 部分官员倾向维持现状而遇挫，可能会加大各类资产的波动 ...

证监许可[2011]1773 号 ——期货择时系列专题（四） 分析师： 黎伟 本文详细探讨了融资相关数据对国内 A 股市场的指引性，并利用量化回 测的方式基于融资增量、融资买入额及融资买入额占两市成交额比值构建 了三种择时策略。结果显示：该类指标用于趋势跟踪策略时的效果远好于 反转策略时的效果，且融资买入额用于择时的长期效果最好。在过去 10 余 年多的时间里，不仅能够显著超越对应基准指数的收益表现，还呈现出更 为平滑的净值曲线，在提升累计收益率的同时有效降低了历史最大回撤， 尤其对成长性更高的中证 1000 指数效果更为突出。 该研究不仅显著拓展了投资者的策略工具箱，而且股指期货及期权交易 者亦可据此预判市场未来几个交易日趋势，从而优化交易决策，增强操作 的针对性与交易胜率。 相关研究报告： 专题报告|金融工程 期货择时系列专题 2025 年 12 月 1 日 融资余额在指数择时中的应用 国联期货研究所 从业资格号：F0300172 投资咨询号：Z0011568 正文目录 | 1、 融资余额与标的指数相关性分析 - 3 - | | --- | | 2、基于融资指标的量化择时策略 - 4 - | | 2.1、 ...

铜周报 20251130 美降息预期增、矿端存约束， 沪铜预计偏强 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 盘面走强、铜现货采购受抑；部分货源紧、现货升贴水抬升 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比跌0.43美元/吨至-42.75美元/吨，仍低 8 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 本周LME铜0-3M升水走强 6 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周十港铜精矿库存环比增1.82万吨至72.31万吨 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 精废价差环比走强 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内11月电解铜产量预计环比减0.4%、同比增8.2% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 中国10月精 ...

专题研究|研究报告 PVC 系列专题——进出口 2025 年 11 月 PVC 进出口基本面整理 PVC 进出口 证监许可[2011]1773 号 分析师： 张可心 从业资格证号：F03108011 随着国内 PVC 产业的发展以及产能的扩张，我国从 PVC 净进口国逐 渐摆脱进口依赖，成为全球 PVC 第一大生产国和出口国。2024 年我国 PVC 出口总量接近 300 万吨，占国内 PVC 产量比重约 12.8%。贸易对象方面 我国在进出口两方面都呈现出了一定的集中度，出口方面，我国近年对印 度、越南、孟加拉国等国家出口呈现显著增量。 2025 年，PVC 下游地产仍在下行周期，出口 PVC 需求端比重增加， 国内 PVC 价格中枢下行也增强了我国 PVC 生产企业出口竞争力。2025 年 1-10 月我国 PVC 累计出口 323,38 万吨，同比增量显著，+48.89%，占 国内 PVC1-10 月累计产量约 16%。 相关研究报告： 与此同时，2025 年我国 PVC 第一大出口国印度在 BIS 认证、反倾销 税政策上的动向对我国 PVC 出口及出口预期带来冲击，在未来出口受限 预期下，今年 PVC ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol have all experienced a peak in rapid capacity expansion in the past 5 - 6 years, but the capacity growth rate in 2025 significantly declined compared to the previous peak. The production growth rate of PX and PTA also dropped notably. Polyester products, being closer to the downstream, have shown a steady overall growth in capacity. Although the capacity growth rate in the past two years has also slowed down, the decline is not as significant as that of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. It is expected that in 2026, the polyester capacity will continue to grow moderately, while the capacity growth rate of mid - upstream products will slow down significantly. In the long - term, the supply - demand situation of the industrial chain will generally improve [9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. PX Enters the Stage of Low - Capacity Growth with Limited Room for Utilization Rate Increase - **PX new device production may be postponed due to strict control of refining capacity**: From 2019 - 2023, affected by the commissioning of private refining and chemical integration devices, PX new devices were intensively put into production, with the capacity growth rate exceeding 20% in multiple years. Since the second half of 2023, no new PX devices have been commissioned. In September 2025, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other seven departments issued a work plan, requiring strict control of new refining capacity and reasonable determination of the scale and pace of new PX capacity. Some large - scale PX devices planned for 2026 - 2028 may be postponed. Even if they are commissioned as scheduled, the capacity growth rate will significantly decline compared to the 2019 - 2023 peak [14]. - **PX utilization rate is difficult to increase significantly due to maintenance needs**: PX devices need regular maintenance, and the maintenance time is usually longer than that of PTA, resulting in a certain amount of maintenance loss every year. The PX utilization rate fluctuates throughout the year, and the high - utilization rate usually lasts for no more than three months. In recent years, the average annual utilization rate has been around 81.5%, and it is expected that there will be limited room for further improvement in 2026 [18]. 2. In 2026, PTA Enters a Gap Period of New Capacity Commissioning, and the Utilization Rate Affects Supply - **The pressure of PTA capacity growth eases as there are no new device commissioning plans in 2026**: From 2019 - 2025, China's PTA capacity continued to expand, with high growth rates in some years. In 2025, three new PTA devices were commissioned, with a net increase in capacity of 7.5 million tons per year. In 2026, there are no new PTA device commissioning plans, and although there are multiple devices planned for 2027 - 2028, the overall capacity growth rate from 2024 - 2026 is relatively low [20][23]. - **PTA utilization rate has room for increase due to production efficiency**: This year, the PTA spot processing fee has been poor, which generally affects the industry's utilization rate. In 2025, the average PTA utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 4 percentage points from the previous year. In 2026, on one hand, the supply growth pressure is reduced due to no new device commissioning; on the other hand, there is potential for the utilization rate to increase and boost production [24][25]. 3. Ethylene Glycol New Devices Are Scheduled to Be Commissioned at the End of Next Year, and the Supply Growth Pressure Is Expected to Be Limited - **Some ethylene glycol new devices may be postponed**: From 2020 - 2023, the ethylene glycol capacity growth rate was high, but it significantly declined from 2024. In 2025, the capacity increased by 1.4 million tons per year, with a growth rate of 4.6%. From 2026 - 2027, there are still many new device commissioning plans, with a total planned capacity of 5.35 million tons per year. However, due to poor production efficiency, some devices may be postponed. In 2026, only Huajin Aramco's 400,000 - ton - per - year device is planned to be commissioned in the first half of the year, so the new - capacity pressure in the first half of the year is small, while the market will focus more on the commissioning of new devices in the second half of the year [29][30]. - **There is still potential for the ethylene glycol utilization rate to increase**: This year, the profit of oil - based ethylene glycol has improved compared to last year, and the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was good before July, promoting an increase in the utilization rate. In 2025, the average utilization rate of oil - based ethylene glycol increased by 2.6 percentage points, that of coal - based ethylene glycol increased by 4.9 percentage points, and the comprehensive utilization rate was 59.7%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points from last year. The ethylene glycol production increased due to factors such as a slight increase in capacity, an increase in utilization rate, and a significant increase in imports. Although there are many new device commissioning plans in 2026, the actual supply increase may be limited, and there is limited room for the utilization rate to continue increasing [33][34]. 4. Outlook In 2026, the capacity growth rate of PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol will continue to slow down. PTA capacity is expected to have zero growth, and the supply pressure will be small. Polyester capacity is expected to maintain a certain positive growth due to economic growth and reduced uncertainties in exports. The demand for polyester raw materials will slightly increase, and the supply - demand relationship will gradually improve. The low - price and low - profit state of the polyester industrial chain is expected to improve, and the certainty of improved production profit is relatively high [39].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Overall Trend**: The precious metals market is expected to experience wide - range oscillations. The market is currently in a special stage of "ambiguous policy expectations + official data vacuum", and prices are mainly determined by the market's expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts [3][4][6]. - **Gold**: In the long - term, factors supporting the strength of precious metals remain unchanged. After a rapid rise in October, the market needs to consolidate through oscillations. In the short - term, gold is in a high - level wide - range oscillation. Technically, it is in a triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $3950 - 4000 and resistance at $4200. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range, showing no clear long or short signals [4]. - **Silver**: In the short - term, silver prices are also determined by the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, with increased volatility and high - level wide - range oscillations. Technically, it is in an ascending triangular consolidation pattern, with support at $48 - 48.5 and resistance at $55. The MACD and RSI indicators are in a neutral range. The long - term price center of silver will follow that of gold. The silver market has a fragile supply chain, and its price volatility is higher than that of gold [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - influencing Factors - **Fed Interest Rate Cuts**: The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts is unclear. There are still differences within the Fed on whether to cut rates in December. The market is pricing in three rate cuts in 2026. After the Fed's dovish remarks on Friday, the probability of a December rate cut rebounded to 71%. The lack of official data for the December Fed decision will lead to repeated fluctuations in the market around rate - cut expectations [9]. - **Fed Independence**: The selection of the next Fed chair and related events may trigger market expectations regarding the Fed's independence and its interest rate cut path in December 2025 and 2026 [9]. 3.2 ETF Position Tracking - **Gold and Silver ETF Positions**: The holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 3.43 tons to 1040.57 tons this week. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased to 15257.92 tons, with a decrease of 39.5 tons this week. This shows that institutional investors' physical allocation demand for gold and silver is at a high level [11][33]. - **October Global Physical Gold ETFs**: Global physical gold ETFs achieved capital inflows for five consecutive months, with a single - month inflow of $8.2 billion in October. Gold ETF trading volume soared to a record $17 billion per day, mainly driven by North American funds [38]. 3.3 Exchange Inventories The report mentions gold and silver exchange inventories but does not provide specific analysis content. Only the data sources are given, which are WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [48][54]. 3.4 Domestic and Foreign Futures - Spot Price Differences The report only mentions domestic and foreign futures - spot price differences and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [60]. 3.5 Precious Metal Ratios The report only mentions precious metal ratios and does not provide specific analysis content. 3.6 Gold ETF Volatility Index The report only mentions the gold ETF volatility index and provides the data source, which is WIND and the research institute of Guolian Futures [70].