金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 2 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：1月27日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天下跌3.17%，基差走弱至-84元/吨。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5220元/吨，较前一交易日下跌130元/吨。成本端布伦特原油在65美元/桶附近；PTA产能利用率较上 一工作日持平至75.83%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.62天，较上周持平。 主力动向：空头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：当前PTA加工费高位但PTA装置暂无进一步提升负荷的计划。终端织造库存累积；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，预计 春节前终端需求将转弱，当前原料涨价过快与节前避险心态形成矛盾，短 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊纯碱期货上涨五大理由 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1. 宏观情绪回暖：央行宽松货币信号释放，稳增长预期升温，资金回流大宗商品，叠加玻璃等关联品种联动上 涨，带动纯碱期货多头情绪发酵。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2. 成本支撑强化：煤炭等能源价格反弹推高纯碱生产成本，氨碱、联碱企业多处于亏损状态，天然碱成本线约 1100-1150元/吨，低价下企业挺价意愿增强，现货报价小幅上调，托底期货价格。 3. 供应短期扰动：部分企业临时检修，行业开工率阶段性波动，叠加春节前物流运力偏紧，主产区货源外运延 迟，销区短期流通性紧张，放大市场对供应的担忧。 4. 库存阶段性去化：截至1月22日厂 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 聊聊纯碱期货上涨五大理由 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1. 宏观情绪回暖：央行宽松货币信号释放，稳增长预期升温，资金回流大宗商品，叠加玻璃等关联品种联动上 涨，带动纯碱期货多头情绪发酵。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 2. 成本支撑强化：煤炭等能源价格反弹推高纯碱生产成本，氨碱、联碱企业多处于亏损状态，天然碱成本线约 1100-1150元/吨，低价下企业挺价意愿增强，现货报价小幅上调，托底期货价格。 3. 供应短期扰动：部分企业临时检修，行业开工率阶段性波动，叠加春节前物流运力偏紧，主产区货源外运延 迟，销区短期流通性紧张，放大市场对供应的担忧。 4. 库存阶段性去化：截至1月22日厂家总库存152.12万吨，周降2.3万吨，虽仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market is under multiple pressures, and the supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices. The rebound space of oil prices is limited without clear production - cut signals or significant geopolitical escalation [4]. - PX supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually, and PTA prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback of the industrial chain before the Spring Festival [4]. - The supply pressure of MEG has been alleviated, but it is in a short - term supply - demand weak pattern. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term and the supply surplus situation is difficult to change in the medium term [5]. - The supply - demand of BZ has marginally improved, and EB prices have strengthened. Although the current pressure of BZ is still large, there is a risk of correction, and the overall view is cautiously bullish [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The crude oil market is influenced by inventory pressure, supply return, and the decline of geopolitical risk premium. Cold weather may support demand in the short term, but the demand improvement is difficult to change the overall supply - demand pattern. The supply surplus in 2026 will be the core driver of oil prices, and the rebound space is limited without clear signals [4]. PX & PTA - Domestic PX maintenance plans are being implemented, and the load has dropped from a high level. The processing fee has rebounded to around $350/ton. The supply - demand is expected to weaken gradually. PTA device load has slightly decreased, and there is a weakening demand signal at the terminal. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost in the short term [4]. - The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 89.87%, down 2.08% from last week. The Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 79.31%, down 0.53% from last week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $350/ton. The new PX capacity will be added in the second half of next year, and the maintenance plan in the second quarter is relatively large. The near - term industrial situation has weakened [8]. - The PTA spot market price is 5,068 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate is 75.83%, down 1.39% from last week. The factory inventory days are 3.62 days, the same as last week. The polyester production reduction plan has increased, and the PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level with the cost [13]. MEG - The spring maintenance of domestic ethylene glycol syngas devices, combined with the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors, has alleviated the supply pressure. The port inventory has increased again, but the import volume is expected to decline in January - February. The short - term supply - demand is weak, with strong support at around 3,600 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5]. - The price of ethylene glycol in East China is 3,652 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from last week. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate is 61.06%, down 1.63% from last week. The port inventory in East China is 740,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons from last week. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level under the future supply - demand weak expectation [20]. BZ & EB - The supply - demand of pure benzene has marginally improved, and the port inventory has started to decline from a high level. The downstream demand has been boosted. The supply of styrene is expected to shrink, and the price has strengthened. The downstream 3S shows resilience, and the inventory pressure has been gradually relieved. The current pressure of pure benzene is still large, and there is a risk of correction, with a cautiously bullish view [5]. - The pure benzene operating rate is 72.37%, down 1.89% from last week. The styrene operating rate is 69.63%, down 1.23% from last week. The BZN has rebounded to around $160/ton. The pure benzene and styrene have both reduced inventory. The downstream PS, ABS, and EPS have different operating rate changes, and the 3S production and sales have improved [29]. Polyester and Downstream - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 83.49%, down 3.21% from last week. The inventory of polyester staple fiber and filament has decreased. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises is 51.20%, down 3.74% from the previous period. The terminal demand has weakened, and the market atmosphere has become colder [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai rubber price has been continuously falling recently and is likely to show a weak and volatile pattern in the future. The futures market is weak, and the spot market generally follows the decline. The downstream market has weak buying, and transactions are mainly for immediate needs. In the short term, with the liquidation of arbitrage positions, the market supply increases, but the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the fundamentals lack effective support, so the rubber price may show a correction trend [2]. - The overall trend of stock index futures today was to open higher, rush up and then fall back, and the market bottomed out and rebounded at the end of the session. Technically, it is generally in a range - bound oscillation, and there may be another pulse in the intraday trading tomorrow. It is still recommended to operate according to the oscillation idea [7][8]. - After the gold price oscillated and adjusted, it reached a new high again, with an increase in volatility and signs of acceleration. It is recommended to take a long - position strategy [12]. - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply of iron ore is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, although there was a small rebound today, the downward trend remains unchanged, and a bearish and oscillating view is maintained [15][16]. - The daily melting volume of glass has been continuously decreasing slightly, and the inventory has also been reduced. The main driving factors are the stimulus policies on the policy side and the anti - involution policy for the supply - side clearance. Technically, although there was a small rebound, the downward trend remains unchanged, and a bearish and oscillating view is maintained [19][20]. - There are two reasons to be bearish on rubber: the macro - environment shows signs of correction, and the rubber futures need to correct and repair as the capital sentiment cools down; the pressure of domestic spot inventory is gradually prominent [23]. - As of January 22, 2026, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.7%. The inventory has been accumulating for three consecutive weeks, and the futures market has shown a weak and oscillating trend recently [25]. 3. Summary by Directory Core Drivers of Rubber Price - Supply: Domestic rubber production has completely stopped, while Southeast Asian countries are still in the tapping season, so the short - term supply is relatively loose. The low - production season will gradually take effect after February, but the support is limited [3]. - Demand: Although the tire production rate has rebounded, terminal consumption is weak. High - priced raw materials suppress buying, and pre - holiday inventory replenishment is unlikely to exceed expectations, lacking the power for continuous upward movement [3]. - Inventory: The inventory in Qingdao area has increased week by week, and the pressure of inventory accumulation continues, suppressing the upward space of futures prices [3]. - Macro and Correlation: The decline of crude oil prices, the weakness of the energy - chemical sector, the price cut of synthetic rubber, and the profit - taking of long positions have intensified the correction of natural rubber prices [3]. Operation Suggestions for Rubber - For single - side trading, it is advisable to try short positions on rebounds. Before the holiday, the market volatility increases, so it is necessary to strictly control the position and set strict stop - losses to avoid chasing up or selling down [4]. Technical Analysis of Different Commodities - Stock Index Futures: Operate according to the oscillation idea [7][8]. - Gold: Take a long - position strategy [12]. - Iron Ore: Maintain a bearish and oscillating view [15][16]. - Glass: Maintain a bearish and oscillating view [19][20]. - Rubber: Be bearish due to macro - environment and inventory factors [23]. - Pulp: The inventory is accumulating, and the futures market is in a weak and oscillating state [25].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， 橡胶价格下跌，后续怎么看 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 沪胶近期持续下跌，后续大概率呈震荡偏弱格局。期货盘面弱势下滑运行，现货市场多跟随盘面走低。下游市 场买盘薄弱，成交刚需为主。短期来看，伴随套利盘平仓出货，市场货源流动性释放，但下游采买情绪谨慎， 基本面缺乏有效支撑，胶价或呈现回调整理运行趋势。 一、核心驱动 1. 供应：国内全面停割，海外东南亚仍处割胶季，短期供给偏松，2月后低产季才逐步发力，支撑有限。 2. 需求：轮胎开工率虽有回升，但终端消费乏力，高价原料抑制买盘，节前备货难超预期，缺乏持续拉涨动力。 3. 库存：青岛地区库存周增，累库压力持续，压制期货价格上行空间。 4. 宏观与关联：原油回落、能化板块走弱，合成胶价格下调拖累天然橡胶，多头获利了结加剧回调。 二、操作建议 单边：反弹可轻仓试空。节前波动加大，严控仓位，设置严格止损，避免追涨杀跌。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUT ...

Report Information - Report Title: Jinxin Futures PTA Ethylene Glycol Daily - Report Date: January 21, 2026 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute [1] PTA Analysis Market Performance - On January 21, the PTA主力期货合约 TA605 rose 1.50%, and the basis strengthened to -61 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China was 5095 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil in the cost side fluctuated around 64 US dollars/barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day. A new material plant reduced its load for maintenance, and a Xin Fengming plant restarted. The weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.62 days, a week-on-week increase of 0.02 days [3] Main Force Trends - Short - side main forces increased their positions [3] Trend Expectation - The current PTA processing fee is at a high level, but there are no plans to further increase the load of PTA plants. The inventory of terminal weaving is accumulating. Pay attention to the early holiday situation of polyester factories before the Spring Festival. It is expected that terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is generally bullish on upstream PX. It is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) Analysis Market Performance - On January 21, the ethylene glycol主力期货合约 eg2605 fell 0.59%, and the basis strengthened to -100 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3581 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price in the cost side was under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 73.6 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared with last Thursday [4] Main Force Trends - There were differences between long - side and short - side main forces [4] Trend Expectation - The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still relatively high, and the port inventory is high, resulting in a large supply pressure. Many overseas plants have maintenance plans in the future, but it is expected that the operating rate of downstream polyester will decline. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will still fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4]

Group 1: Methanol Market - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: After the decline in methanol futures prices, it will be weak in the short - term and fluctuate within a range in the medium - term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream operation rate as the key variables [2] - Key points from relevant content: - Reasons for price decline: Winter is the off - season for demand, MTO and other downstream profits are compressed, some devices plan to stop or reduce production; port inventory is high (about 1.5372 million tons in early January), and inland factories face high shipping pressure; there is a correction in market sentiment and profit - taking by funds [2] - Trading strategy: Treat it by shorting on rallies during corrections, operate with light positions, and take profits in batches [4] Group 2: Stock Index Futures - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The ChiNext Index shows signs of a stable rebound in the short - term, which is expected to drive the STAR Market to strengthen [7] - Key points from relevant content: - Market performance: Most A - share indexes opened and closed lower today, except for the Shanghai Composite Index which rebounded after hitting a low, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indexes declined significantly [7] Group 3: Gold - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: After a period of shock adjustment, gold prices reached a new high, and the operation strategy is to go long [9] Group 4: Iron Ore - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support; technically, it has been falling continuously, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [11] - Key points from relevant content: - Market situation: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply surplus is further fermented; on the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in a weak state [12] Group 5: Glass - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Technically, it has broken through an important support level, and the bearish view remains unchanged [13] - Key points from relevant content: - Market situation: The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has also been reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side reform policies [14] Group 6: Rubber - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: There are reasons to be bearish on rubber. Firstly, although the commodity market atmosphere is still positive, there are signs of a correction, and rubber futures need to correct; secondly, the pressure of domestic spot inventory is gradually emerging [16] Group 7: Pulp - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The recent upward trend of pulp futures has been interrupted, and it has entered a new stage of mainly oscillating and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, the recent changes include the halt of the further rise of hardwood pulp (staying around 4700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts, indicating that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price. It should be treated with a bearish view in the oscillation [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The PTA price is expected to fluctuate at a high level following the cost side, while the ethylene glycol price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation in the short term [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **主力合约情况**: On January 20, the PTA main futures contract TA605 rose 2.14%, and the basis weakened to - 68 yuan/ton [2]. - **基本面情况**: The market price of PTA in East China today is 5010 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Brent crude oil on the cost side fluctuates around 64 US dollars per barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day. A new material plant reduced its load for maintenance this week, and a Xin凤鸣 plant restarted. The weekly inventory days of PTA factories are 3.62 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.02 days [3]. - **主力动向**: The long - position main force increased positions [3]. - **走势预期**: The current PTA processing fee is at a high level, but there is no plan to further increase the load of PTA plants. The inventory of terminal weaving has accumulated. Attention should be paid to the situation of polyester factories taking early holidays before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the terminal demand will weaken before the end of January. The market is unanimously bullish on upstream PX, and it is expected that the PTA price will fluctuate at a high level following the cost side [3]. MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **主力合约情况**: On January 20, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 2.52%, and the basis strengthened to - 116 yuan/ton [4]. - **基本面情况**: The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3595 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The coal price on the cost side is under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China is 73.6 tons, an increase of 0.8 tons compared with last Thursday [4]. - **主力动向**: There is a divergence between the long and short main forces [4]. - **走势预期**: The domestic ethylene glycol operating rate is still relatively high, coupled with high port inventories, resulting in relatively large supply pressure. There are maintenance plans for multiple overseas plants in the future, but it is expected that the downstream polyester operating rate will decline. It is expected that the ethylene glycol price will still oscillate at the bottom in the short term [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Methanol futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term and fluctuate within a range in the medium term, with inventory reduction, import volume, and downstream operating rates being the key variables [2] - For methanol trading, the strategy is to short on rallies during corrections, with light positions and staged profit - taking [4] - Regarding stock index futures, the Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher with reduced trading volume today. There is a possibility of further upward movement tomorrow, and it should be treated as a volatile market for high - selling and low - buying [8] - Gold has reached a new high after a shock adjustment, and the operation strategy is to go long [10] - Iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [11] - Glass has a bearish outlook based on today's large - negative candlestick [14] - Rubber is bearish due to a weakening macro - atmosphere and increasing domestic spot inventory pressure [18] - Pulp futures have entered a new phase of mainly oscillating and secondarily declining, and should be treated with a bearish bias [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol - **Reasons for price decline**: Winter is the demand off - season, and downstream MTO and other devices plan to stop or reduce production due to compressed profits; port inventory is high (about 1.5372 million tons in early January), and inland factories face high shipment pressure; the chemical sector has corrected after a collective rise, and capital has taken profits, intensifying short - term fluctuations. Additionally, stable international situations, coastal olefin device maintenance, and poor downstream profitability have also affected the price [2] - **Trading strategy**: Short on rallies during corrections, operate with light positions, and take staged profits [4] Stock Index Futures - **Market situation**: The Shanghai Composite Index opened lower and closed higher today with reduced trading volume. The ChiNext and STAR Market indices showed obvious weak oscillations. Technically, the small - cycle adjustment is sufficient, and there is a possibility of further upward movement tomorrow. It should be treated as a volatile market for high - selling and low - buying [8] Gold - **Market situation**: Gold reached a new high after a shock adjustment, and the operation strategy is to go long [10] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has further intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real - estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking. Technically, it closed with a large - negative candlestick today, and the strategy of shorting on rebounds remains unchanged [11] Glass - **Market situation**: The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has also been reduced. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large - negative candlestick today, and the bearish outlook remains unchanged [14] Rubber - **Reasons for bearish view**: The macro - atmosphere shows signs of correction, and the continuous upward momentum is insufficient. As the capital sentiment cools down, rubber futures need a correction. Also, the domestic spot inventory pressure is gradually emerging [18] Pulp - **Market situation**: The recent upward trend of pulp futures has been interrupted, and it has entered a new phase of mainly oscillating and secondarily declining. From a fundamental perspective, the recent changes include the halt of the further increase of hardwood pulp (staying around 4,700), the decline of the basis of most softwood pulp, and the large - scale registration of pulp warehouse receipts, indicating that the futures price is overvalued relative to the spot price. It should be treated with a bearish bias [21]