Report Industry Investment Rating - The palm oil and pulp industries are rated as "Oscillating with a Bearish Bias" [3][22][26] Report's Core View - The decline in palm oil futures prices is due to multiple factors, including ample supply, weakening demand, international trade policies, and competition from substitutes. Market participants should closely monitor relevant factors and adjust strategies in a timely manner [3] - The stock index futures are expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term, influenced by policy announcements and Fed's interest - rate cut signals [6] - Gold is in short - term small - range oscillations, and with the increasing probability of a Fed rate cut in September, it is bullish for gold [10][11] - Iron ore shows a wide - range oscillation pattern, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] - Glass prices are supported at the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] - Pulp is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season due to high inventory and weak downstream demand [26] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Palm Oil - On August 29, 2025, the closing price of the palm oil main contract was 9349 yuan, down 160 yuan or 1.69% from the previous day [3] - In Malaysia, the estimated palm oil production from August 1 - 20 increased by 3.03% compared to the same period last month, increasing supply pressure [3] - Except for China, the demand from most major buyers has weakened, and the high price of palm oil and the narrowing price difference with soybean oil have reduced market purchasing willingness [3] - Some countries' import restrictions or tariff adjustments have led to a decrease in international market demand, and the increasing production and more competitive prices of substitutes have diverted consumer demand [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The release of "Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" and Fed Chairman Waller's support for a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, with continued cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, are the influencing factors. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - After the Fed Chairman released positive signals at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, the probability of a rate cut in September increased, which is bullish for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in short - term small - range oscillations [10][11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, it showed a pattern of rising and then falling today, with obvious wide - range oscillations recently. Although iron - water production remains high, the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products has not changed, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it rose sharply near the end of the session, and the lower support was effective. Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The recent large cumulative increase in the oil market, combined with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, has reduced the market's motivation to chase up prices and increased the pressure for profit - taking. It should be treated with an oscillating and bearish view [22] Technical Analysis - Pulp - Inventory is the biggest constraint, downstream demand has not improved, and procurement remains average. Today, the price of coniferous pulp Yinxing in Shandong has been lowered. It is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the A-share market and expects the Shanghai Composite Index to reach the 4200 - 4300 point range in 2025 [2][26] Core Viewpoints - The recent correction of the Shanghai Composite Index is a normal adjustment in a bull market, and the bull market is still ongoing based on comprehensive analysis of macro - economy, policy, funds, and technical patterns [2][3] - The "six factors" of economic recovery, loose monetary policy, capital flow, policy support, favorable international environment, and technical breakthroughs jointly form the basis for the strong rise of the A - share market [26] Summary by Related Factors Macroeconomic Factor - Since 2025, a series of growth - stabilizing policies have shown continuous effects, and the macro - economic recovery has been further consolidated. The GDP growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3%, and key economic indicators such as industrial added value, total retail sales of consumer goods, and fixed - asset investment have shown a steady upward trend, providing fundamental support for the stock market [4] Monetary Policy Factor - The current monetary policy remains moderately loose. The central bank has maintained reasonable and sufficient market liquidity through reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and various structural tools, driving the market interest rate center to decline continuously. This makes fixed - income assets less attractive and equity assets more appealing, leading to a large - scale transfer of funds to the stock market [10] Capital Flow Factor - In June 2025, China's household deposits exceeded 16.2 trillion yuan. In the context of an "asset shortage" in the financial market, the decrease of 1.1 trillion yuan in household deposits in July and the recent high - volume trading in the stock market indicate the "movement" of household deposits [13] - In July, the number of new A - share accounts reached 1.9636 million, a 19% month - on - month increase and a 71% year - on - year increase compared with June. The margin trading balance has steadily increased, and the issuance of public funds has picked up, indicating that market risk preference has shifted from conservative to aggressive, bringing continuous incremental funds to the market [16] Policy Factor - The top - level strategic goal of "activating the capital market and boosting investor confidence" has been implemented, and the regulatory authorities have introduced a series of measures to improve the capital market ecosystem, which is expected to continuously increase the valuation center and investor confidence [19] International Environment Factor - The Fed has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, narrowing the Sino - US interest rate spread, weakening the attractiveness of US dollar assets. The stable and strong RMB exchange rate has increased the cost - effectiveness of RMB assets [21] - Global funds are re - evaluating the Chinese market with relatively low valuations and leading economic recovery, and northbound funds have shown a trend of net inflow, becoming an important driving force for the market [21] Technical Analysis Factor - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the key resistance level of 3800 points with heavy volume, and multiple major moving averages are in a bullish arrangement and diverging upwards, providing strong technical support for the index to rise. The current market trading is active, with good volume - price coordination, and the upward trend is expected to continue, targeting the 4200 - 4300 point range [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the demand for pure benzene has some support, and the BZN spread remains stable. Styrene is expected to oscillate with bottom support in September due to high planned maintenance volume. [3] - The global crude oil market is expected to face a record supply surplus next year. Crude oil prices are adjusting in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September. [4] - The tight - balance pattern of PX has loosened, and its processing fee support is weakening. The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in the short term, but it is still a long - term supply - surplus situation. [4] - The price of ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to low inventory and slightly improved demand. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs BZ&EB - Pure benzene's current high - level operating rate and decreased port inventory, but overall inventory is still high and may accumulate later. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and terminal orders are poor. [3] - Styrene's operating rate remains stable, with a slight inventory build - up. Planned maintenance in September may lead to supply contraction, and downstream demand is rising. [3] - This week, pure benzene's operating rate is 79.18% (up 0.19% from last week), and styrene's is 78.07% (down 0.46% from last week). BZN remains at around $150/ton. [30] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, downstream demand has improved month - on - month, but terminal consumption verification is needed. [30] Crude Oil - The IEA predicts a record supply surplus in the global crude oil market next year due to OPEC+ production increase and slow demand growth. [4] - Crude oil prices are adjusting in a weak trend, and attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September to see if production increase will be suspended in October. [4] PX&PTA - Domestic PX's operating rate is high, inventory has changed from destocking to stocking, and the tight - balance pattern has loosened. [4] - The PTA supply - demand pattern is expected to improve in the short term, and there is a destocking expectation. The processing fee has recovered to 239 yuan/ton but is still at a low level this year. [4] - China's PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, the same as last week, and Asia's is 74.45% (up 1.54% week - on - week). [8] - The PTA spot price is 4834 yuan/ton (up 87 yuan/ton from last week), and the mainstream spot basis is 2.75 yuan/ton. [11] - The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate is 70.71% (down 5.51% week - on - week) due to a 500 - million - ton device's maintenance. [11] MEG - There are supply - side policies stimulating the ethylene glycol market, but there are also demand - side device clearances bringing negative pressure. [4] - This week, the ethylene glycol price is 4539 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan/ton from last week), and the total domestic capacity utilization rate is 65.11% (up 2.66% from last week). [15] - Ethylene glycol's port inventory is at a historical low level (41.32 million tons, down 8.46 million tons from last week), and attention should be paid to the supply - demand gap risk. [15] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry is 86.66% (up 0.11% week - on - week). [22] - Terminal orders have increased, and the market sentiment has improved, but the industry is still over - supplied, and downstream profits are still in the red. [22] - Based on the demand seasonality of textile raw materials, the decline in filament and staple fiber demand may be almost over, and attention should be paid to whether demand will pick up next month. [22]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report recommends an oscillating and bullish stance on coking coal futures [4]. - It suggests an oscillating and bearish view on palm oil futures [23]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal futures have been oscillating upwards recently, driven by multiple factors, presenting both opportunities and challenges [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to shift from an upward trend to high - level oscillations [7]. - The gold market will experience short - term small - scale platform oscillations [11]. - The iron ore futures are showing obvious wide - range oscillations recently [15]. - The glass futures rebounded slightly today, and attention should be paid to the lower support [19]. - The palm oil market has a declining motivation for further chasing the rise and an increasing pressure for profit - taking [23]. - The pulp market is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Futures - Supply - side factors include tightened safety regulations in Shanxi leading to coal mine production cuts and reduced imports due to lower Mongolian port clearance and rising Australian coking coal arrival prices [4]. - Demand - side factors are strong demand from the steel industry, high hot metal production, and increased coking enterprise procurement after coke price hikes [4]. - Technically, the coking coal futures have broken through key moving averages, formed a bullish arrangement, and seen a significant increase in trading volume [4]. - The price increase benefits coking enterprises but may put pressure on steel enterprises [4]. Stock Index Futures - News includes the release of the 2025 list of China's top 500 private enterprises by the All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce and the introduction of new real - estate policies in many places [7]. - The market is expected to shift from an upward trend to high - level oscillations [7]. Gold Futures - The Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium has increased the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed, which is positive for gold [12]. - The weekly adjustment of gold is relatively sufficient, and it will have short - term small - scale platform oscillations [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Technically, it had a significant upward movement today, with obvious wide - range oscillations recently [15]. - High hot metal production continues, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products remains, and negative feedback due to eroded steel mill profits should be watched out for [16]. Glass Futures - Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and attention should be paid to the lower support [19]. - Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to restocking before the peak season [20]. Palm Oil Futures - The oil market has seen a large cumulative increase recently, but with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the motivation for further chasing the rise is declining and the profit - taking pressure is increasing [23]. Pulp Futures - High inventory is the main constraint, downstream demand has not improved, and procurement remains average. The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has decreased today, and it is expected to maintain low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [27].

2025/08/28 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 多晶硅期货下跌，行业变革进行时 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，多晶硅期货价格出现下跌态势，引发市场广泛关注。8月27日数据显示，多晶硅主力已收盘，价 格为48680元，较前一日下跌2505元，跌幅达4.89% 。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 多晶硅期货下跌，主要是受供需失衡、成本下降和政策与市场情绪等多重因素的影响。 从供应端来看，多晶硅产量回升，西北大厂矿热炉部分复产，西南复产加速，6月产量增至10.1万吨，7 - 8月供应维持高位，且期货仓单增加240手至3020手，强化了供应回升预期。 需求端却持续疲软，光伏装机量下滑与出口不及预期，2025年全球金属硅需求同比降13%，地产板块承 压，铝合金需求改善有限。此外，煤炭价格大幅回落，削弱了硅材料生产成本，再加上交易所对多晶硅 实施限仓措施并上调手续费，抑制了市场投机热情，导致部分资金离场。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent significant upward trend in the CSI 1000 stock index futures has attracted high market attention, driven by multiple factors including policy support, industrial development, and capital flow [3][4]. - The short - term sharp rise in the CSI 1000 stock index futures may accumulate some correction risks [4]. - The A - share market showed a pattern of opening lower, quickly rebounding from the bottom, rising and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high and then falling back [8]. - Gold is expected to have short - term small - scale platform oscillations, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is beneficial to gold [11][12]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and declined today, and attention should be paid to the support below. There is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [15][16]. - Glass prices had a small adjustment today, and it is necessary to test the support below again. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [18][19]. - The palm oil market should be treated with a bearish bias due to high inventory pressure and lack of demand [22]. - Pulp prices are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 5000 for potential long - position opportunities [25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs CSI 1000 Stock Index Futures - Policy support: The central bank's loose monetary policy signals such as expected reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts have injected more liquidity into the market, and government support for emerging industries has benefited many constituent stocks of the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Industrial development: The breakthroughs in the technology industry, such as artificial intelligence and semiconductors, have driven up the stock prices of relevant constituent stocks in the CSI 1000 index [4]. - Capital flow: The price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 1000 is at a relatively low historical level, attracting more capital compared to the CSI 300 [4]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower today, quickly rebounded from the bottom, rose around noon and then fell back, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high and then falling back in the late trading [8]. Gold - Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting: The Fed Chairman released positive signals, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to gold. The weekly adjustment of gold is relatively sufficient, and it is expected to have short - term small - scale platform oscillations [11][12]. Iron Ore - Technical analysis: Prices oscillated and declined today, and attention should be paid to the support below [15]. - Market situation: High pig iron production, the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products remains unchanged, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [16]. Glass - Technical analysis: Prices had a small adjustment today, and it is necessary to test the support below again [18]. - Market situation: Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [19]. Palm Oil - Market situation: The recent cumulative increase in the oil market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the motivation for the market to continue rising has decreased, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It should be treated with a bearish bias [22]. Pulp - Market situation: Suppressed by high port inventories, the transmission of factors such as the peak season and overseas production cuts and price increases is not smooth, and the upward space is limited. It is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 5000 for potential long - position opportunities. Attention should also be paid to whether the Fed will cut interest rates in September [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report is bullish on the subsequent glass market and suggests a low - buying strategy for glass futures [3][4]. - It expects the A - share market to continue high - level volatile upward movement this week [7]. - It believes that gold will have short - term platform - style small - amplitude oscillations, and the probability of a September interest rate cut by the Fed is increasing, which is beneficial to gold [11][12]. - It indicates that iron ore will have a significant rebound, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [16]. - It suggests a bearish and volatile view on palm oil due to high inventory pressure and lack of demand [24]. - It holds that pulp will maintain bottom - level oscillations in the short term, and investors should pay attention to the 5000 support level for potential long - positions and the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - The current decline in glass futures 2601 price may present a buying opportunity. The price is close to the production cost in the Shahe area, and enterprises may take measures to support the price. Technically, there is a possibility of a rebound [4]. - The daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is insufficient. Attention should be paid to the restocking situation near the peak season. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [20][21] A - share Market - The trading volume of the A - share market has exceeded 3 trillion, setting a new record for the year. Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Six Measures" to adjust the purchase restrictions. It is expected that the market will continue high - level volatile upward movement this week [7] Gold - After the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting, the Fed Chairman released positive signals, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have short - term platform - style small - amplitude oscillations [11][12] Iron Ore - With the improvement of steel mill profitability, the molten iron output remains at a high level, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Affected by the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, non - US assets are favored. Technically, it has a strong rally today, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [16][17] Palm Oil - The recent cumulative increase in the oil and fat market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has declined, and the profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish and volatile view [24] Pulp - Constrained by high port inventories, the transmission of factors such as the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, overseas production cuts, and price increases is not smooth, and the upward space is limited. It will maintain bottom - level oscillations in the short term. Attention should be paid to the 5000 support level for potential long - positions and the Fed's interest - rate decision in September [27]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The current decline in the price of the glass futures 2601 contract may be孕育 a long - making opportunity. The price is close to the production cost in the Shahe area, and the shrinking volume indicates a possible rebound [3]. - For the stock index futures, the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. - The probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is bullish for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [11]. - For iron ore, the overall fundamentals are strongly supported, but the market sentiment has weakened recently. It is in a high - level wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the support level [14][15]. - For glass, the daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the downstream deep - processing orders are not fully recovered. Consider going long at low levels when it stabilizes [18][19]. - For palm oil, due to the large cumulative increase in the recent oil market, with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase up has declined, and it should be treated with a bearish bias [22]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - The price of the glass futures 2601 contract has fluctuated sharply recently. The core support for the short - side counterattack is the imbalance between supply and demand and high inventory. The potential signals for long - making are the cost bottom line and the expected turn [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level. Relevant information includes the Fed's stance on not supporting a September interest rate cut and the increased enthusiasm of real - estate enterprises to acquire land [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downward, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is bullish for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. However, the recent market sentiment has weakened, and the black series has collectively corrected. Technically, it is in a high - level wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to the support level [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The daily melting is basically stable, the factory inventory continues to accumulate, and the downstream deep - processing orders are not fully recovered. Technically, the recent correction is approaching the important support level below. Consider going long at low levels when it stabilizes [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The recent oil market has had a large cumulative increase. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase up has declined, and the profit - taking pressure has increased. It should be treated with a bearish bias [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - PTA futures 2601 has risen in the past two days, and its future trend needs to be judged by considering multiple factors. It may maintain a slightly bullish and volatile short - term trend, with potential for further increase if demand improves; otherwise, it faces downward risks due to supply pressure in the medium term [3][4]. - For the stock market, the overall trend of the three major A - share indices is high - level volatile and upward [7]. - Gold is favored as the July non - farm payroll data indicates a lower - than - expected US economy, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, and its weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient with short - term platform consolidation [11]. - Iron ore is in a high - level wide - range volatile adjustment, with strong fundamental support but weakening market sentiment [14][15]. - Glass 09 has fallen 30 points back to 952. If its price stabilizes, the price of glass 2601 will also stabilize, and low - buying can be considered if it stabilizes [18]. - Palm oil should be treated with a slightly bearish and volatile view as the oil market has large cumulative gains, with rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - Supply: In August, there were concentrated short - term shutdowns and planned overhauls of facilities, reducing the operating rate to a monthly low and tightening supply. However, new facility production expectations and load recovery suppress the processing fee repair space, and medium - term supply pressure remains [4]. - Demand: Polyester load slightly increased to 89.4%, inventory pressure eased, and restocking demand in the manufacturing sector supported prices, but the sustainability of terminal textile orders remains to be seen [4]. - Cost: Crude oil fluctuations weakened valuation guidance, while PX provided weak support to PTA due to expected supply - demand pattern improvement [4]. - Technical and Market Sentiment: PTA2601 broke through the 20 - day line on the daily chart in the short term, and there is a bullish sentiment among some investors as the chemical product market shows signs of recovery [4]. Stock Market - The three major A - share indices opened higher and closed lower today, rising during the session and then falling back, with a small rebound at the end of the session, closing with a doji star. The overall trend is high - level volatile and upward [7][8]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. This increases the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in short - term platform consolidation [11]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profitability has improved, and hot metal production remains high, providing strong fundamental support. However, market sentiment has weakened recently, leading to a collective correction in the black - series commodities [14][15]. - Technical: It continues to adjust today, and is treated as a high - level wide - range volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level near the lower important support [14]. Glass - Price Movement: Glass 09 fell 30 points back to 952. If its price stabilizes, the price of glass 2601 will also stabilize [18]. - Technical: Attention should be paid to the lower important support level, and low - buying can be considered if it stabilizes [18]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The oil market has had large cumulative gains recently. With rising overall inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It should be treated with a slightly bearish and volatile view [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Glass 2601 futures is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Continued weak demand and inventory accumulation may further pressure prices, while improved demand or policy incentives could lead to price stabilization and recovery [3]. - The short - term stock index futures market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [6]. - The probability of a US interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to the gold market. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there will be a small - scale platform oscillation in the short term [10]. - Iron ore is in a callback phase and should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation. Attention should be paid to the support near the lower important support level [13]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has improved slightly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. Consider going long at low prices after the price stabilizes [16]. - The palm oil market should be treated with a bearish and oscillatory outlook due to increased inventory pressure and lack of demand [19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass 2601 Futures - From August 14 - 20, the closing price on August 14 was 1,220 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.37%. The production line remained unchanged, the start - up rate and weekly output were flat, but the manufacturer's inventory increased. From August 19 - 20, the market declined unilaterally, and the main contract on the 20th closed down 4.36% at 1,166 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 2,644,752 [3]. - The supply - side daily melting is stable at around 159,000 - 160,000 tons, and the downstream inventory is at a high level with weak production and sales [3]. Stock Index Futures - The stock index futures closed with a positive line. The fiscal revenue growth rate turned positive in the first seven months, and the economic sentiment level rebounded. The bond market had a significant correction [6]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut and benefiting the gold market [10]. Iron Ore - The iron ore market is in a callback. Technically, it continues to adjust and should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation. The steel mill's profit has improved, and the molten iron output remains high, with strong fundamental support, but the market sentiment has weakened recently [13][14]. Glass - The supply - demand situation of glass has improved slightly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. There is no actual policy benefit during the current macro - vacuum period [16][17]. Palm Oil - The cumulative increase in the recent oil market is large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand, the market's motivation to chase higher prices has decreased, and the profit - taking pressure has increased [19].