金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/07/18 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃价格下跌后，是否能继续做多 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从基本面看，房地产需求持续疲软，虽有光伏需求支撑，但难以完全抵消地产拖累，且玻璃社会库存同比 增加，供应压力较大。不过，金晶科技等生产线冷修，日熔量减少对供应形成边际支撑，可能限制价格跌 幅。 | 主力动向 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOLDTRUST | FUTURES | CO.，LTD | | 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ | ibaotu.com | | 从产业资讯看，7月16日讯，据SMM了解，今日安徽地区一座设计产能为75 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: Although the short - term glass market has intense long - short competition, considering the marginal support of supply reduction and the unchanged medium - term upward trend of the futures main contract, if the price stabilizes at the key support level, one can try to go long; otherwise, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Stock Index Futures: It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level during the delivery week [7]. - Gold: Despite the adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of rate cuts this year, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. - Iron Ore: With the improvement of the macro - environment, high iron - water production, and the positive feedback repair of the industrial chain, it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. - Methanol: As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, so it should be shorted with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Glass - Fundamental: Real estate demand is weak, and although there is support from photovoltaic demand, it cannot fully offset the drag from the real estate sector. The social inventory of glass has increased year - on - year, resulting in significant supply pressure. However, the cold repair of production lines such as Jinjing Technology has reduced the daily melting volume, providing marginal support for supply and potentially limiting price declines [3]. - Industrial News: On July 16, a kiln production line in Anhui with a designed capacity of 750 tons per day entered cold repair, and the cold - repair speed of the top 10 photovoltaic glass production lines has accelerated. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, which is beneficial for glass enterprises to reduce inventory and subsequent glass prices [3]. - Technical Analysis: The short - term correction of the glass futures main contract does not change the medium - term upward trend. If it stabilizes around 1050 yuan, one can try to go long with a light position. The short - selling power of glass is concentrated, but the net short positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract show a decreasing trend, and market divergence has intensified [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures This week is the delivery week of stock index futures. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upward at a high level [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a correction in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains, and it can be bought at a low price when it adjusts to an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore The improvement of the macro - environment has increased risk appetite. With good steel - mill profits, iron - water production remains at a high level, and the industrial chain is in a state of positive feedback repair. Technically, it continued to rise today, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak. There is no obvious change in the fundamentals, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it fluctuated within a narrow range today, and the lower support is effective, so it should be viewed from a bullish perspective [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Methanol As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 6.10 tons, while that in South China decreased by 1.58 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, and it should be shorted with a light position [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate in the second quarter was 5.2%. The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [4]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to a decrease in the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold market. However, the long - term outlook for gold remains positive, and it is advisable to buy on dips when it reaches an important support level [8][9]. - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it is expected to maintain a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is recommended [12]. - The glass market is mainly driven by news and sentiment. Although the fundamentals have not changed significantly, the price has support below after a high - level decline today, so a bullish view is taken [14][15]. - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports has increased. The inventory in East China has increased, while that in South China has decreased. With the continuous accumulation of port inventory, a short - selling strategy with a light position is recommended [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis of Stock Index Futures - The GDP in the first half of the year increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and 5.2% in the second quarter. The market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Technical Analysis of Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in the gold market. But the long - term trend is upward, and it can be bought on dips at important support levels [8][9]. 3.3 Technical Analysis of Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it maintains a strong consolidation at a high level, and a bullish view is appropriate [12]. 3.4 Technical Analysis of Glass - The fundamentals of the glass market have not changed significantly, and it is mainly driven by news and sentiment. After a high - level decline today, there is support below, so a bullish view is recommended [14][15]. 3.5 Technical Analysis of Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of methanol at Chinese ports is 71.89 tons, an increase of 4.52 tons from the previous period. East China has seen inventory accumulation, while South China has experienced destocking. With continuous inventory accumulation, a short - selling strategy with a light position is suggested [18].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. Supply tightened due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the production - capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Demand increased during the "peak - summer" period. This may raise steel production costs and steel prices, and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - In the stock market, the overall situation is that the Shanghai Composite Index had a good performance with an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and reduced expectations of rate cuts this year, the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted to an important support level, and investors can buy on dips [11][12]. - For iron ore, the macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. - For glass, the supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. - For methanol, as of July 9, 2025, China's methanol port inventory increased. The East China region saw inventory accumulation, while the South China region had destocking. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. It is expected that annual production will be reduced by 1.2 billion tons. The Mineral Resources Law implemented on July 1 raised the coal - mine production - capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi. The supply of high - quality coking coal tightened, and the spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak - summer" period, the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82% (a new high this year), the daily iron - water output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking - plant operating rate was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking boosted short - term demand [3]. Stock Market - The Shanghai Composite Index had an opening - low and closing - high trend, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index had minor fluctuations. Customs data showed that China's goods trade imports and exports increased by 2.9% year - on - year in the first half of the year. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing a short - term adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it has adjusted to an important support level, so investors can buy on dips [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high iron - water output. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state. Technically, it maintained a strong high - level consolidation, so a bullish view is appropriate [16]. Glass - The supply side has no significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream restocking power is weak. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it pulled up near the end of the session, so a bullish view is appropriate [20]. Methanol - As of July 9, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The East China region saw an inventory increase of 61,000 tons, while the South China region had a decrease of 15,800 tons. With continued inventory accumulation and visible foreign - vessel unloading of 177,200 tons, a short - selling strategy with a light position is advisable [22].

Report Title - "Jiaoxin Futures Daily" and "Analysis of the Reasons, Impacts, and Outlook for the Rise in Coking Coal Futures Prices" [1][2] Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, coking coal futures prices rose due to supply tightening and increased demand. The price increase will raise steel production costs and may push up steel prices, while also boosting market confidence in the coal industry and attracting more capital inflows. Opportunities for low - buying on pullbacks should be grasped [3] - A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is in an adjustment phase but the long - term upward trend remains. Iron ore, glass, and methanol have their own market characteristics and trading suggestions [6][10][21] Industry Analysis Coking Coal Industry - Supply: Main production areas have tightened safety inspections, with over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia shut down for rectification in June. It is expected that production will decrease by 1.2 billion tons per year. The implementation of the "Mineral Resources Law" on July 1 raised the coal mine production capacity threshold, causing 30% of small coal mines to face exit. The supply of high - quality primary coking coal is tight, and spot prices have risen by 50 yuan/ton [3] - Demand: During the "peak summer power consumption period", national high - temperature warnings are frequent. The daily power plant consumption has exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry's operating rate has rebounded to 82%, a new high for the year. The daily hot metal production has rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant operating rate is 73%. Steel mills' passive inventory replenishment has increased short - term demand [3] A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened flat and moved higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising in the late session and then falling back. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [6] Gold Market - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is expected to reach new highs. It is advisable to buy on dips [10][11] Iron Ore Market - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and hot metal production remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it showed a rise and then a fall today but did not break below the support, so a bullish view is maintained [14][15] Glass Market - The supply side has not seen a significant loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories remain high, downstream deep - processing orders have weak inventory replenishment motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it rose and then fell today but the lower support is effective, so a bullish view is maintained. It is still waiting for the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18][19] Methanol Market - As of July 9, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 718,900 tons, an increase of 45,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 61,000 tons, while that in South China decreased by 15,800 tons. This week, methanol port inventories continued to accumulate, with 177,200 tons of obvious foreign vessel unloading during the period. A short - position strategy with a light position is recommended [21]

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" [1][2] - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price increased. Supply tightened due to safety inspections and regulatory changes, while demand rose during the "peak summer" period. This price increase may push up steel prices and attract more funds to the coal industry. Traders should seize the opportunity to buy on dips [3]. - The stock index futures are expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level. The A - share market had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index holding above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [7][8]. - Gold may face short - term adjustments due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains. Traders can buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - Iron ore has a high overvaluation risk due to weak market conditions, but it showed a significant rebound today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [15][16]. - Glass supply is still high, and demand has not significantly increased. However, it showed a strong breakthrough today, and a bullish view is now appropriate [18][19]. - Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short term due to the US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. The capacity replacement window may close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The new "Mineral Resources Law" will force 30% of small coal mines to exit, and the supply of high - quality coking coal is tight, with the spot price rising by 50 yuan/ton [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily consumption of power plants exceeded 240,000 tons, the coking industry's operating rate reached 82%, and the daily production of molten iron rebounded to 235,000 tons. Coking plants' operating rate was 73%, and steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market Performance: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, recovered, and finally pulled back at the end of the day. The Shanghai Composite Index held above 3500 points, and there were no major news events [8]. - Outlook: The market is expected to continue to oscillate and rise at a high level [7]. Gold - Market News: The Fed decided not to cut interest rates, reducing the expectation of rate cuts this year, leading to a short - term adjustment in gold prices [12]. - Outlook: The long - term upward trend of gold remains. Traders can buy on dips when the price reaches an important support level [11]. Iron Ore - Market Conditions: Supply increased month - on - month, molten iron production declined seasonally, and port inventories increased again. The weak market increased the risk of overvaluation [16]. - Outlook: After a significant rebound today, a bullish view is now appropriate [15]. Glass - Market Conditions: There has been no large - scale cold repair of production lines due to losses, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not significantly increased [19]. - Outlook: After a strong breakthrough today, a bullish view is now appropriate [18]. Soybean Oil - Market News: The US biodiesel policy and the Middle East situation are uncertain, which may cause short - term oscillations or strengthen the price of soybean oil [21]. - Outlook: In the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. Traders can short - sell lightly when the price reaches the previous high of 7950 - 8000 [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 9, 2025, the coking coal futures price rose. The supply was tight due to safety inspections in major production areas, potential closure of the capacity replacement window, and the implementation of the Mineral Resources Law. Meanwhile, demand increased during the "peak summer" period, with high power plant consumption, rising coking industry and iron - making开工率. The price increase may raise steel production costs and attract more funds to the coal industry. Investors are advised to seize the opportunity of low - buying on dips [3]. - For stock index futures, considering the June CPI and PPI data, the market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. - For gold, although there was an adjustment due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. - For iron ore, supply is rising, iron - making output is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. There is a risk of overvaluation, and steel mill profits should be monitored. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. - For glass, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. - For soybean oil, due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: In June, over 30 coal mines in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia were shut down for rectification. There are rumors that the capacity replacement window will close in the second half of the year, with an expected annual production cut of 1.2 billion tons. The implementation of the Mineral Resources Law on July 1 led to about 30% of small coal mines facing exit, such as the suspension of 12 million tons of production capacity in Shanxi, causing a shortage of high - quality coking coal and a 50 - yuan/ton increase in spot price [3]. - Demand: During the "peak summer", the daily power plant consumption exceeded 2.4 million tons, the coking industry开工率 reached 82%, a new high for the year. The daily iron - making output rebounded to 2.35 million tons, and the coking plant开工率 was 73%. Steel mills' passive restocking increased short - term demand [3]. Stock Index Futures - Market situation: In June, CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI fell 3.6% year - on - year. The market is expected to continue high - level consolidation [7]. Gold - Market situation: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to buy on dips at important support levels [11][12]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand situation: Supply increased month - on - month, iron - making output decreased seasonally, and ports started restocking. The weak reality increased the risk of overvaluation, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [14][15]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: There has been no major cold - repair situation due to losses in the supply side, factory inventories are still high, downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation, and demand has not increased significantly. It is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policy. Technically, it continued to rebound and is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17][18]. Soybean Oil - Market situation: Due to the uncertain US biodiesel policy and Middle - East situation, the short - term trend may be strong, but mid - term supply will increase. When the price reaches the resistance area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is recommended [20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The egg futures price is falling. The supply pressure is large due to high in - production laying hen inventory and increasing small - sized egg supply, and the demand is weak in summer. The egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, with the low - price area limiting the decline, and the strong support area of the main egg futures contract price is 3370 - 3350 [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to oscillate upward as the US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China to promote Sino - US trade [7]. - Gold is expected to reach a new high in the long - term, although it has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates. It can be bought at a low price when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. - Iron ore is in a state of wide - range oscillation. Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and the risk of over - valuation is increasing, so attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14][15]. - Glass is in an oscillating state, and it is still waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introduction. The supply side has no major cold - repair, factory inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak [18][19]. - Soybean oil is expected to oscillate or be strong in the short - term due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the 7950 - 8000 pressure area, it can be short - sold lightly [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Egg Futures - Supply: High in - production laying hen inventory, increasing new - laying hens, and more small - sized egg supply lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is difficult to relieve as the culling of old hens is limited [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption, and school holidays reduce canteen purchases. Although low prices may stimulate promotions and restocking, overall demand is weak and difficult to change in the short - term [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward as the US Treasury Secretary plans to talk with China to promote Sino - US trade [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term trend is still bullish, and it can be bought at a low price when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The risk of over - valuation is increasing, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, it is in a wide - range oscillation [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side has no major cold - repair, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power and weak demand. It is still waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy introduction, and technically, it is in an oscillating state [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Soybean Oil - In the short - term, it may oscillate or be strong due to the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation. But in the medium - term, it is in a season of production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the 7950 - 8000 pressure area, it can be short - sold lightly [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The egg futures price is falling. Due to high inventory of laying hens, increased supply of small - sized eggs, and weak demand in summer, the egg price is expected to remain low in the first half of July, but the decline is limited [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillations. Gold is expected to rise in the long - term, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels. Iron ore has a high over - valuation risk, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended. Glass market needs real estate stimulus or major policies, and a shock approach is appropriate. Soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term, and short - selling with a light position is advised when it reaches the previous high pressure area [7][11][15][19][23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Egg Futures - Supply: High inventory of laying hens, increasing number of newly - laid hens, and increased supply of small - sized eggs lead to large supply pressure, and the pressure is hard to relieve soon [3]. - Demand: Summer is the off - season for egg consumption. School holidays reduce canteen purchases, and overall demand is weak and hard to change in the short - term. However, low prices may stimulate supermarket promotions and trader restocking [3]. - Price Outlook: Affected by the leap June, the egg price will remain low in the first half of July. The low - price area has delivery and cold - storage stocking, limiting the decline. Observe the strong support area of 3370 - 3350 for the main egg futures contract [3]. A - share Market - Market Performance: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low, with only the Shanghai Composite Index closing in the positive territory above 3470 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations [8][7]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates reduces the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. But the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it's advisable to buy at low prices when it reaches important support levels [12][11]. Iron Ore - Market Situation: Supply is rising month - on - month, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are accumulating inventory again. The weak reality increases the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, it shows a trend of rising and then falling, and a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended [16][15]. Glass - Supply and Demand: There is no major cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventory is high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power, so demand is not continuously increasing. It needs real estate stimulus or major policies. Technically, it has been adjusting at a high level for three days, and a shock approach is appropriate [20][19]. Soybean Oil - Market Trend: Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle - East situation, soybean oil may oscillate or strengthen in the short - term. But the current supply - demand is not tight, and it will see seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium - term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 7950 - 8000, short - selling with a light position is advised [23].

Group 1: Report Core View - Glass futures experienced a pullback after a rally, presenting a good opportunity to go long [3] - The expectation of production cuts is the key driver for the price increase of glass futures. Domestic leading photovoltaic glass enterprises plan to collectively cut production by 30% starting from July, and the supply in July is expected to drop to around 45GW. Previously, the glass industry had a serious oversupply issue, with prices dropping by over 70% and the industry in a loss - making state. Production cuts will alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand and accelerate capacity clearance, which is beneficial for price recovery. Additionally, Sanxia New Material announced a one - year cold repair of its float glass production line, and these production cut actions on the supply side support the price [4] - Policy factors also contribute to the rise in glass futures prices. The Central Financial and Economic Commission proposed to regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises, which will increase costs as enterprises improve product quality and reduce supply as backward production capacity exits [4] - From the market sentiment and technical aspects, glass futures may have been oversold previously and have a technical rebound demand. The market's expectation of production cut news and policies has strengthened the bullish sentiment, and capital inflows have pushed up the price. Moreover, the firm price of soda ash has caused some glass enterprises to incur losses, providing strong support for the glass price near the cost line [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The implementation of the new program trading regulations is imminent. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate upwards next Monday [8] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. However, the overall trend remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before it reaches a new high, although the pace is slow. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level and is likely to resume its upward trend [12][13] Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has weakened seasonally, and port inventories have started to accumulate again. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits. Technically, most of the prices have risen and then fallen today, and a wide - range oscillation approach should be adopted [16][17] Glass - The supply side of glass has not yet experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, factory inventories are still at a high level, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation, so the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Recently, the significant production cut of photovoltaic glass has affected market sentiment. Technically, the price has maintained a range - bound consolidation today, and the short - term sentiment has a greater impact. An oscillating and bullish approach should be adopted [20][21] Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain situation in the Middle East, the short - term trend of soybean oil may be oscillating or bullish. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in a period of seasonal production and inventory increase in the medium term. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8050 - 8000, a light - position short - term short - selling strategy can be considered [23]