金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 焦炭期货创新低，释放出什么信号？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从宏观层面看，全球经济增速放缓，国内经济结构调整仍在持续，这使得工业生产需求减弱，作为 重要工业原料的焦炭需求也随之降低。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 在供求关系上，焦炭供应端产能扩张，新增焦化厂不断投产，而需求端钢铁行业受房地产市场低迷、 建筑工程开工率不足的影响，产量下降，对焦炭采购量减少，供大于求的局面愈发明显。 政策层面，环保政策趋严，部分焦炭生产企业因环保不达标而限产、停产，钢铁行业也面临同样问 题，需求进一步收缩。与此同时，原料成本的下降也推动了焦炭价格走低，炼焦煤价格下跌，降低 了焦炭的生产成本。 焦炭期货价格创新低，是宏观经济、供求关系、政策、原料成本等多因素共同作用的结果。不要追 空，把握超跌反弹多的机会 。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 26, the main contract of rebar futures fell below 3000 yuan/ton, hitting a new low since September 12, 2024, due to multiple factors including supply - demand, cost, and macro - economic environment. In the future, with lackluster off - season consumption, EAF steel mills may cut production, and the steel market is in a low - valuation area, presenting short - term long opportunities from oversold rebounds [3]. - Today, the A - share market rose and then fell. The three major indices (Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index) closed in the red, while the CSI 1000 closed strongly in the green. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index continued to show a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6][7]. - Gold's internal and external markets broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 confirmed as the end of this wave of adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. There is resistance near a certain point, and it is recommended to wait for adjustments to buy on dips instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. - In May, due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, iron ore faces large supply - surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation. Technically, it hit a new low today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [15]. - For glass, demand growth depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a bearish oscillating view is taken [17][18]. - For PTA, the PX plant operating rate remains low, and major manufacturers like Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong plan to conduct maintenance in May, leading to tight spot circulation. Meanwhile, the downstream polyester industry has poor demand, suppressing the PTA futures price. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Rebar futures price decline is due to complex supply (blast furnace production cuts but EAF restarts) and weak demand (slowdown in manufacturing investment, low real - estate sales). Cost pressure comes from falling coking coal prices and increased iron ore shipments. In the future, off - season consumption is poor, and EAF steel mills may cut production [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The A - share market was volatile today. The capital flow shrank by 14.56 billion compared to last Friday, and the index maintained a weak high - level oscillating pattern [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Gold broke through a small platform upwards, with the low on May 15 as the end of the adjustment. It is expected to rise to the high on May 9. Wait for dips to buy instead of chasing the rise [10][11]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - In May, iron ore has supply - surplus pressure due to reduced exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is entering the off - season. Technically, it hit a new low, with a bearish oscillating view [15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - Glass demand growth depends on real - estate policies. Currently, daily melting is low, sales have improved slightly, but inventories are high, and downstream restocking motivation is weak. Technically, it showed narrow - range fluctuations, with a bearish oscillating view [17][18]. Technical Analysis - PTA - PX plant operating rate is low, and major manufacturers plan maintenance in May, causing tight spot circulation. Downstream polyester demand is poor, suppressing PTA prices. Technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [21].

感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，国内煤矿生产持续高位运行，4月原煤产量同比增长3.8%，1 - 4月累计产量同比增长 6.6% ，山西、内蒙古和陕西等主要产煤大省产量均有不同程度增长。进口方面，虽海运煤进口利润 下降，但蒙古煤"五一"后日通过量仍维持高位，5月17日中蒙第二条跨境铁路开工，后续进口能力 还将提升，内蒙古288口岸库存高企，成交冷清，贸易商降价出货，进一步打压价格。 需求端同样表现疲软。钢铁行业作为焦煤主要消费领域，当前处于淡旺季转换阶段，上周247家钢厂 日均铁水产量环比减少0.87万吨，有见顶迹象，且在低利润背景下，钢厂采购谨慎，无集中补库需 求。而焦化厂面临钢厂连续压价，已历12轮提价，后续还有第13轮提价可能，市场情绪谨慎，采购 推迟，导致煤焦销售不畅，库存连续累积。 综合来看，除非国内煤矿大幅减产或需求端超预期反弹，否则焦煤价格仍将承压，短期内弱势格局 难改。 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰 ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Goldtrust Futures Daily" [1][2] - Report Date: May 23, 2025 [1] Group 2: Crude Oil Futures Analysis - **Core View**: On May 22, 2025, the crude oil futures market experienced a sharp decline due to multiple factors. From the supply side, some oil - producing countries unexpectedly increased production, with OPEC+ over - increasing production, some countries not strictly implementing production cuts, and the US shale oil production increasing by 1.6 million barrels per day. If Iran signs a nuclear agreement with the US, its production may exceed 4 million barrels per day and release oil reserves. From the demand side, global economic growth is weak, the US manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line at 49.1, China's refinery operating rate is only 80%, and energy structure transformation is accelerating, suppressing long - term oil demand. Investors should closely monitor the market and adjust strategies, and relevant enterprises should prepare in advance. The market should be treated with a volatile and bearish outlook [3][4]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - **Core View**: The index has reached a record high, and it is likely to experience high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold Futures - **Core View**: The internal and external gold markets have broken through a small platform upwards. It can be basically confirmed that the low point on May 15 is the end of this wave of adjustment, and the upward target is expected to reach the high point on May 9. There is resistance at a certain point, and the market should be mainly bullish in the future [11][12]. Iron Ore Futures - **Core View**: In May, the decrease in downstream exports and the increase in shipments have led to a large supply surplus pressure, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high - valued iron ore. Technically, it is in a wide - range fluctuation, with a slight adjustment today, and should be regarded as a volatile market [15]. Glass Futures - **Core View**: The continuous increase in demand depends on the effects of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, there was a large decline today, and the market should be regarded as a volatile one. Currently, the daily melting volume is low, the spot production and sales have improved, but the factory inventory is still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power [17][18]. PTA Futures - **Core View**: Fundamentally, the PX plant operating rate remains low, large factories plan to conduct maintenance in May, the spot circulation is tight, and the downstream polyester industry has poor demand, which suppresses the PTA futures price and makes it difficult to break through the pressure level. Technically, there are signs of a phased peak [20].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝大涨分析及后市展望 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月21日氧化铝大涨，主要源于几内亚矿端扰动。几内亚是全球第一大铝土矿生产国、我国第 一大铝土矿进口国 ，当地时间5月16日上午，几内亚矿业局对Axis矿区下达停工指令，该矿区涉及 产能约4000万吨/年，2024年实产2300万吨，目前恢复时间不明。这是继5月15日几内亚政府吊销46 家矿业公司采矿证后，铝土矿供给扰动的进一步升级。 从基本面来看，当前国内氧化铝企业开工率下滑，处于年内低位，检修产能较多，供应压力减弱， 现货货源收紧，库存出现明显下滑。下游电解铝企业的开工率却保持在97%的高位，且季节性特征 显示，电解铝的高开工会持续到9月份。 短期来看，铝土矿扰动叠加供给端收缩，氧化铝市场情绪回暖，有利于价格反弹修复。 但从中期视角， ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 1 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纯碱价格创新低，市场寒意几何？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月20日，纯碱价格再创新低，这一现象引发市场广泛关注。纯碱作为重要化工原料，其价格 波动牵扯众多行业神经。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，近年来纯碱产能持续扩张，2023 - 2024年新增产能不断投放，2025年计划新增产能 也相当可观 ，高开工率让市场供应始终维持高位。而在需求端，浮法玻璃受地产竣工低迷影响，需 求大幅萎缩；光伏玻璃需求增长也开始放缓，其他需求增量有限。供需严重失衡，使得纯碱价格承 压下行。 成本方面，煤炭、原盐等主要原材料价格下降，降低了生产成本，给予生产商降价空间。宏观经济 增长放缓，工业生产活动减弱，对纯碱需求减少，国际市场供需格局与贸易政策变化，也冲击着国 内纯碱价格。 对于相关企业，生产企业利润被压缩，面临较大经营压 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 2 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝涨停与后市分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年5月19日氧化铝涨停，主要是几内亚铝土矿供应风险发酵所致。几内亚政府撤销部分矿山采矿 许可，Axis矿区被下达停工指令，涉及产能约4000万吨/年，恢复时间不明，引发市场对铝土矿供应 短缺的担忧。 从基本面来看，国内氧化铝开工率下调，贵州、广西地区新增集中检修，山东也有少量检修 。电解 铝方面，虽有部分地区复产，但水电表现不佳，复产低于预期。 短期内，氧化铝价格或因供应端减产检修和矿端消息炒作继续上行。但从中期视角，1-3月国内铝土 矿进口4707万吨，自几内亚进口3639万吨。目前港口库存回升至2458万吨，超过过去2年的同期水平。 结合目前海漂库存仍有1483万吨，处于近4年高位，短中期矿石供给无虞。铝材在中美关税下出口承 压，下游电解铝维持刚需采购，一旦氧化铝产能回归，供需过剩格局可能重现，压制价格。 投资者需密切关注几内亚矿端动态、新增产能进度以及矿价波动。操作上，短期追涨需谨慎； 中长线而言，可待价格稳定后 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On May 16, 2025, the glass futures price hit a new low, with a decline of over 2% and a minimum of 1002 yuan/ton, and a trading volume of 1.6316 million. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the price may remain weak in the short - term and depend on various factors in the long - term [3]. - A - shares had a full - line decline after continuous upward oscillations, and there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase. Foreign investors are optimistic about the overweight opportunities of Chinese assets [6]. - Gold is in an adjustment phase, but the general direction is still bullish, and the most important support is the low point after Tomb - Sweeping Festival [11]. - Iron ore faces supply surplus pressure in May due to export reduction and shipping increase, and the weak reality increases the high - valuation risk. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish and oscillating mindset [14]. - The glass futures market requires the manifestation of real - estate stimulus effects or major policy announcements for demand to increase. Technically, it should be viewed bearishly [17]. - PTA has fundamental pressure to break through the resistance level due to low PX device operating rates and weak downstream polyester demand, and shows signs of reaching a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Focus - On May 16, 2025, the glass futures price hit a new low. Supply has a potential contraction trend, but inventory is at a near - three - year high. Demand is weak, raw material costs have decreased, and macro - policies have not effectively supported the demand side. In the short - term, the price may remain weak, and in the long - term, it depends on multiple factors [3]. Technical Analysis - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares declined after continuous upward oscillations, and there is a high probability of entering an adjustment and oscillation phase. Foreign investors are optimistic about the overweight opportunities of Chinese assets [6]. - **Gold**: It is in an adjustment phase, but the general direction is still bullish, and the most important support is the low point after Tomb - Sweeping Festival [11]. - **Iron Ore**: In May, there is supply surplus pressure due to export reduction and shipping increase, and the weak reality increases the high - valuation risk. Technically, it should be viewed with a bearish and oscillating mindset [14]. - **Glass**: Demand needs real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it should be viewed bearishly [17]. - **PTA**: It has fundamental pressure to break through the resistance level due to low PX device operating rates and weak downstream polyester demand, and shows signs of reaching a phased peak [21].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 1 6 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 5月15日氧化铝大涨，原因与后续走势分析 5月15日，氧化铝期货盘面表现强劲，主力合约涨幅显著。此次大涨主要受两方面因素影响。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 供应端，近期氧化铝企业检修减产增多，运行产能持续下降，产量处于相对低位，且短期暂无新产 能投放，供应收紧给予价格反弹动力。从数据来看，国内港口氧化铝库存虽较前一周仅增加0.1万吨 至3.8万吨，但供应减量的趋势已在市场形成价格支撑预期。 需求端，早间现货市场询价增多，电解铝厂与贸易商询价积极，铝厂采购意愿上升，持货商顺势上 调报价，成交价格稳步上涨，总消费稳中略增，近期供需结构明显改善。 从后续走势看，目前氧化铝实际生产利润及盘面利润均修复至正值，可能缓解供应端的减产情绪， 成本下移也对价格存在潜在利空 。尽管当前氧化铝供应过剩暂时难以证伪，但短期 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 1 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA与PX大涨，是否到了压力区？ PTA期货 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从技术角度来看，有观点认为4800在日线周期是上轨压力，5月14日PTA期货主力合约最高达到4920 元/吨，突破了4800元/吨这一压力位。但仅从这一点不能完全判定就进入了压力区，还需观察后续 能否站稳。从基本面看，PX装置开工率维持低位，5月浙石化、盛虹等大厂计划检修，现货流通偏紧， 同时下游聚酯行业需求较差，对PTA期货价格形压制，使得其突破压力位具有一定的基本面压力。 PX期货 5月14日PX期货涨幅明显。从成本角度看，国际油价上涨带动其原料成本上升，同时下游PTA装置投 产预期增加需求，推动PX期货价格上涨。目前没有明确的公开信息表明PX期货涨到了压力区，但由 于P ...