Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations, with a short - term weakening trend in operation [2]. - Iron ore should be viewed with a shock mindset [5]. - Glass should be viewed with a shock mindset, despite improved spot sales and optimistic market sentiment, actual demand remains to be observed [8]. - Alumina should be viewed with a slightly bullish shock mindset as the current price is close to the cost line [11]. - Caustic soda is expected to bottom out and rebound as it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch from late March to April [14]. - Soybean No.1 will experience low - level shock consolidation after a short - term sharp decline [17]. - Rapeseed oil will be in a short - term shock pattern [20]. Industry - Specific Summaries Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it has entered a "fatigued" state. Fundamentally, listed companies are in the intensive annual report disclosure period, and some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, the MACD has a high - level death cross, indicating a need for further adjustment [2]. Iron Ore - It closed with a small positive line today. There is a large long - term supply intensity, and attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand as the traditional peak season approaches. Technically, the indicators show a double death cross [5][6]. Glass - Recently, some production lines have been cold - repaired again, and spot sales have improved. With the influence of policies, market sentiment is optimistic, but actual demand remains to be observed. Technically, the indicators show a double golden cross, and it closed with a negative line today [8]. Alumina - The average production cost in the alumina industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line [11]. Caustic Soda - With strong exports, many future maintenance expectations, and a strong basis, the futures 05 contract may be oversold. Alumina device production is going smoothly, and short - term demand for caustic soda is not bad. From late March to April, there will be a peak of caustic soda device maintenance, and it may face a short - term supply - demand mismatch [14]. Soybean No.1 - The成交 rate of a 160,000 - ton soybean auction yesterday was low. There are rumors that the customs clearance time for imported soybeans has been accelerated, and the small amount of soybeans from grass - roots farmers supports the soybean price. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [17]. Rapeseed Oil - China has imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, and domestic inventory pressure remains high. Technically, the MACD and short - term moving averages show a death cross [20].

金信期货日刊 金 信 期 货 研 究 院 铁矿 今日冲高回落，转为震荡思路。 2025/03/26 股指经过连续震荡上行之后，短期进入"疲态" ，我们认为短期震荡调整是大概率事件，从 基本面看，上市公司进入年报公布密集期，部分资金会寻求避险；技术上，MACD高位死叉， 股指有进一步调整的需求，操作上，短期震荡偏弱思路为主。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 股指期货 数据来源：iFind、金信期货 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 长期供应强度较大，临近传统旺季，关注下游实际需求启动情况；技术上，指标双死叉， GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 近 ...

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The stock index is likely to experience short - term shock adjustment after continuous upward oscillations. It is recommended to adopt a short - term weak shock strategy [2]. - For today's market, it is recommended to take a bullish shock approach [5]. - In the long - term, due to high supply intensity and approaching the traditional peak season, attention should be paid to the actual start of downstream demand. Technically, with double dead - crosses of indicators, a cautious attitude is needed [6]. - For glass, with some production lines cold - repaired recently, spot sales have improved. With positive market sentiment influenced by policies, but actual demand still to be observed. Technically, with double golden - crosses of indicators and a strong breakthrough today, a bullish approach is recommended [8]. - For 20 - number rubber, from March onwards, Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries are in the low - yield season for over a month, with less glue output and reduced raw material supply for standard rubber. Technically, with disordered price movements, a shock approach is recommended [11]. - For alumina, the average production cost in the industry is 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, and the current price is close to the cost line. A bullish shock approach is recommended [14]. - For sugar, over 90% of sugar mills in Guangxi have completed the crushing process, and the domestic sugar - crushing season is coming to an end. Industrial inventory is high, but import pressure is not large. Technically, with golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, the short - term market will fluctuate at a high level [16]. - For rapeseed oil, after China imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal, but the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil is small, mainly imported from Russia. After the short - term emotional release, the market returns to the supply - demand situation, with high domestic inventory pressure. Technically, with golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, the short - term market will be in a shock pattern [19]. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - After continuous upward oscillations, it enters a "fatigue" state. Fundamentally, as listed companies enter the intensive annual report disclosure period, some funds seek risk - avoidance. Technically, with a high - level dead - cross of MACD, there is a need for further adjustment [2]. General Market - Today's market shows a significant upward trend, and a bullish shock approach is recommended [5]. Long - term Market - High supply intensity and approaching the traditional peak season. Attention should be paid to downstream demand start. Technically, double dead - crosses of indicators [6]. Glass - Some production lines are cold - repaired, spot sales improve. Policy - influenced positive market sentiment, but actual demand to be observed. Technically, double golden - crosses and a strong breakthrough [8]. 20 - number Rubber - Southeast Asian low - yield season from March, less glue output, reduced raw material supply. Technically, disordered price movements [11]. Alumina - Average production cost 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton, current price close to cost line [14]. Sugar - Guangxi sugar - crushing season ending, high industrial inventory, low import pressure. Technically, golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, high - level short - term shock [16]. Rapeseed Oil - Tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal, small import volume from Canada, mainly from Russia. After emotional release, back to supply - demand, high domestic inventory. Technically, golden - crosses of MACD and short - term moving averages, short - term shock [19].

宏观点评： "反常"的金融数据 金 信 期 货 研 究 院 2024/05/13 黄婷莉 F3073548 Z0015398 央行公布4月金融数据 (1) 新增人民币贷款7300亿元，市场预期7433亿元，前值30900亿元。 (2) 社会融资规模-1987亿元，市场预期10148亿元，前值48675亿元。 (3) M2同比7.2%，市场预期8.3%，前值8.3%; M1同比-1.4%，前值1.1%; M0同 比10.8%。 24-02 23-11 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------|--------|-------|----------|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------|--------|---------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | 当月新增社副 | -1987 | 48675 | 15248 | 65364 | 19326 | 24554 | 18441 | 41326 | 31279 | 5 ...