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金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251125
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 11:22
Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the PTA and Ethylene Glycol Daily by Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated November 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: PTA Market Analysis Market Performance - On November 25, the PTA主力期货合约TA2601 fell 0.30%, and the basis strengthened to -39 yuan/ton [2] Fundamental Information - The market price of PTA in East China today is 4635 yuan/ton, with the cost - side crude oil price stabilizing after a decline. The PTA capacity utilization rate is 71.17%. The weekly PTA factory inventory days are 3.81 days, a decrease of 0.16 days compared to the previous period. The PTA processing fee has recovered to over 200 yuan/ton [3] Main Force Movements - The long - side main force reduced positions [3] Market Expectations - Recently, PTA supply has decreased significantly, and India's BIS cancellation has boosted export demand, leading to a small - scale de - stocking of PTA. Downstream polyester start - up may gradually weaken, and the long - term supply remains in excess. In the short term, the PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate following the cost side [3] Group 3: Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Market Analysis Market Performance - On November 25, the ethylene glycol主力期货合约 eg2601 rose 0.49%, and the basis weakened to 21 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Information - The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today is 3918 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The cost - side crude oil price stabilized after a decline, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in a loss. The weekly inventory of MEG ports in East China totaled 63.3 tons, an increase of 1.5 tons compared to the previous period [4] Main Force Movements - There is a divergence between long and short main forces [4] Market Expectations - Recently, ethylene glycol inventory has been continuously rising, and although the inventory accumulation rate has decreased, the expectation has not been reversed. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production and conduct maintenance, alleviating the supply - side pressure of ethylene glycol. It is reported that a 3.3 - million - ton plant in Iran has recently shut down, and the restart time is undetermined. Downstream polyester start - up remains stable but has entered the consumption off - season. Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, the market may continue to maintain a volatile pattern [4]
金信期货日刊-20251125
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-25 01:10
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The glass futures secondary main contract is in a game between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with many supporting factors from cost, supply, inventory, policy, and capital aspects, and has long - term bottom - fishing value [3] - The stock index futures are significantly oversold, with shrinking trading volume and a wait - and - see attitude in the capital market, expected to remain in high - level oscillations [7] - Gold has rebounded and is approaching an important resistance level, with increased oscillations and expected to fluctuate for some time [12] - Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support, and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation for high - selling and low - buying [14] - Glass daily melting has little change, inventory has increased this week, and can be regarded as an oscillatory upward trend [18] - For methanol, there is an opportunity to short in the short - term and go long in the long - term [21] - Pulp futures show an oscillatory downward trend [25] Summary by Related Catalogs Analysis of the Possibility of Bullish on Glass Secondary Main Contract - Cost provides strong support, and the decline space of the contract price is limited. The industry's break - even point is about 980 - 1000 yuan/ton, and the glass secondary main contract was reported at 1113 yuan/ton on November 21 [3] - Supply contraction continues to increase, and the supply - demand pattern is gradually optimized. Four coal - fired production lines in the Shahe area have been shut down for cold repair, with a total daily melting volume of 2650 tons, driving the national float glass daily output to decline by 1.33% month - on - month [4] - The contract is undervalued, and the long - term allocation value is prominent. Some institutions suggest buying in batches on sharp drops and taking profit when the industry profit returns to the break - even point [4] Technical Analysis of Stock Index Futures - Significantly oversold, with shrinking trading volume, and expected to remain in high - level oscillations, it is recommended to observe more and act less [7] Technical Analysis of Gold - After a rebound, it is approaching an important resistance level, with increased oscillations and expected to fluctuate for some time [12] Technical Analysis of Iron Ore - In the process of finding a bottom, with weak domestic demand support, and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation for high - selling and low - buying [14] Technical Analysis of Glass - Daily melting has little change, inventory has increased this week, and can be regarded as an oscillatory upward trend [18] Technical Analysis of Methanol - As of November 19, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 147.93 million tons, a decrease of 6.43 million tons from the previous period. There is an opportunity to short in the short - term and go long in the long - term [21] Technical Analysis of Pulp - The import volume in October decreased month - on - month, and the domestic port inventory is in a destocking trend. The supply is still abundant, and the futures show an oscillatory downward trend [25]
金信期货纸业日刊-20251124
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 11:20
Report Overview - Report Name: Jinxin Futures Paper Industry Daily - Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Pulp futures are expected to continue their weak performance due to factors such as price decline, inventory accumulation, increased imports, and cautious downstream procurement [4]. - Double - offset paper futures are likely to fluctuate in a low - level range in the short term, and the spot price is unlikely to rise substantially, maintaining a "stable price and weak volume" stalemate due to cost, supply, and demand factors [12]. - Both pulp and double - offset paper are negatively affected by the increase in short - selling positions of major players [18]. Summary by Directory Pulp Futures Fundamental Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the price of softwood pulp decreased by 50 yuan. On Thursday, port inventory increased by 102,000 tons, a 5.1% month - on - month increase. In October, softwood pulp imports continued to rise, with a cumulative annual import of 7.122 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly, port de - stocking is lower than expected, and downstream procurement is cautious [4]. Double - offset Paper Futures Fundamental Analysis Basic Situation - In Shandong, the price of double - offset paper remained stable, and the spot market price was temporarily stable with little fluctuation in the quotes of leading paper enterprises. The sharp decline in the upstream pulp futures price has invalidated cost support, and negative sentiment has continued to spread. In Guangdong, some spot prices have weakened, and local publishing tender prices are low, increasing market wait - and - see sentiment. The supply side has an over - capacity situation, with new capacity to be added, while the operating rate has been hovering at a low level and inventory digestion is difficult. On the demand side, although publishing tenders support rigid demand, non - rigid demand orders have shown little improvement, and long - term factors such as digitization and birth rate are dragging down demand growth [12]. Main Force Trends - For pulp, short - selling major players have increased their positions, which is bearish [18]. - For double - offset paper, short - selling major players have increased their positions, which is bearish [18].
金信期货日刊-20251124
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 02:57
GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源:文华财经、金信期货 观点仅供参考,市场有风险,入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 品种 周度观点 需求:结构性分化持续。白卡纸提价落地情况好,包装纸头部企业引领涨价潮,箱板纸、瓦楞 纸均价周环比均涨 80 元 / 吨;而文化纸需求依旧疲软,双胶纸即便计划提价,因缺乏需求支 撑,下游接受度低,整体需求未实现全面放量。 供给:宽松中现短期扰动。国内 10 月纸浆产量环比涨 10.2%,供给基础宽松;智利针叶浆外 盘报价下跌、阔叶浆报价上涨。不过美国木兰浆厂 11 月 20 日起临时停产,给全球供应带来短 期小幅扰动,但难改整体宽松格局。 纸浆 库存:延续高位累库态势。截至 11 月 20 日,国内主流港口纸浆样本库存量达 217.3 万吨, 较上期累库 6.3 万吨,环比涨 3.0%,其中青岛港持续宽幅累库,仅常熟港等少数港口呈窄幅去 库走势,整体库存处于年内中位水平。 利润:纸企利润分化。包装纸企业因产品提价,叠加纸浆成本稳升但传导顺畅,利润修复态势 明确;而依赖文化纸的企业仍承压,双胶 ...
金信期货日刊:玻璃看多策略要点-20251124
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-24 01:29
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/24 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 玻璃2605合约当前价格接近1000元/吨成本线,下行空间受限,但抄底需严守风控、静待信号。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 基本面看,传统地产需求疲软拖累产销,但光伏玻璃、BIPV等新赛道需求同比增长18%,构成长期支撑; 供应端沙河部分产线冷修,虽有复产预期,但落后产能出清持续推进。 技术面需关注1000-1005元支撑区间,仅当价格站稳该区间且出现成交量放大、连续减仓等信号时,可轻 仓试多。 风险提示不可忽视:库存仍处高位,冬季需求淡季或加剧累库压力,且持仓高企存在流动性风险。抄底核 心逻辑是成本支撑与产业转型红利,需摒弃盲目抄底思维,待供需拐点明确后再逐步加仓。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源:公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考,市场有风险,入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD ...
金信期货观点-20251121
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-21 09:06
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to the end of the demand peak season, increased inventory accumulation in the US, and concerns about supply disruptions from geopolitical frictions [3]. - The PX price is expected to fluctuate following the crude oil price, with a short - term supply - demand balance. PTA is likely to have a small inventory build - up before the year - end and will mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [3][7]. - The domestic ethylene glycol (MEG) futures price is expected to run weakly due to factors such as increased supply expectations, weakening cost support, and high inventory [4]. - The prices of pure benzene (BZ) and styrene (EB) may not have sustainable rebounds as their fundamentals have limited positive factors and the cost - end oil price is under pressure [4]. 3. Summary by Product Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspend production increases in Q1 2026. The next meeting is on November 30. The demand peak season has ended, and US crude oil inventory accumulation has increased. Geopolitical frictions may limit Russian oil exports and support the oil price. The market consensus on future supply surplus leads to an expected weak and volatile price [3]. PX & PTA - PX: The domestic overall load remains high, with a weekly average domestic capacity utilization rate of 89.21% (-0.36% week - on - week) and an Asian average of 79.79% (+0.06% week - on - week). The PX - naphtha spread is stable at around $250/ton. With limited fourth - quarter maintenance and no new domestic capacity in H1 2026, and positive factors for terminal demand, the supply - demand is stable, and the price is expected to follow the crude oil price [3][7]. - PTA: Two sets of devices were shut down for maintenance this week, with the weekly operating rate dropping to 74.29%. Polyester load remained high, and sales volume increased. Before the implementation of substantial policies, there is an expectation of a small inventory build - up due to increased supply and weak demand before the year - end. The processing margin is still low, and it is expected to follow the cost - end fluctuations [3][13]. MEG - The overall domestic load decreased slightly, but new plant trials increased supply expectations. The cost support from crude oil and coal weakened. Coal - based MEG profit shrank, and the operating rate decreased. After the "Double Eleven", the downstream polyester operating load is expected to decline, and the port inventory has been accumulating. The high inventory will suppress the price, and the price is expected to run weakly [4][18]. BZ & EB - BZ: The domestic load decreased, but the port inventory increased significantly. The import volume is expected to remain high, and downstream profits are generally in deficit. Although the North American blending demand has improved, the overall demand is weak. - EB: The weekly operating rate decreased slightly, with new plant launches and some restarts. There are planned maintenance in the second half of the month. The port inventory decreased, but the expected arrival volume in the second half of the month will increase. The downstream 3S operating rate increased slightly, but the overall inventory is high. The price rebound may not be sustainable [4][26]. Polyester - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyester industry was 87.59% (+0.07% week - on - week). Polyester staple fiber and filament had a small inventory build - up. The comprehensive operating rate of the Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving industry was 67.69% (-0.30% from the previous period), and the average terminal weaving order days decreased to 13.54 days (-0.95 days). The new order growth is weak, and the market activity has declined [22].
金信期货日刊-20251121
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 23:30
GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/21 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 鸡蛋期货2601上涨后,后市震荡偏多博弈为主 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 11月20日,鸡蛋期货2601合约震荡上行,盘中最高触及3248元,收盘涨2.05%报3240元,结束此前连续 回调态势。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 此次上涨主要受短期情绪修复与节日预期支撑,北方灌肠、南方腌腊等消费场景逐步启动,市场对12月备 货需求有所期待。 但中长期来看,供需矛盾未根本缓解。供应端,在产蛋鸡存栏仍处13亿只以上历史高位,后续3个月新增产 能将集中释放,供应压力难快速消解。需求端虽有旺季预期,但猪肉、鸡肉等替代蛋白价格低位运行,一 定程度挤压鸡蛋消费空间。 后市大概率呈现"短期震荡偏多、中期看产能去化"格局。 短期价格或区间波动,需关注存栏数据与降温对消费的拉动效果; 中长期若养殖端加速淘汰老鸡,轻仓 ...
金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251120
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-20 11:12
2 0 2 5 / 1 1 / 2 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD PTA 主力合约:11月20日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天下跌0.25%,基差在-67元/吨。 金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面:今日PTA华东地区市场价4633元/吨,较前一交易日下跌7元/吨。成本端原油价格再度下跌;供给端PTA产能利用率71.17%, 较前日-2.32%;周度PTA工厂库存天数3.97天,环比减少0.12天 主力动向:多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 预期:周内PTA装置计划内降幅,现货加工费有所回升仍在低位运行,如果没有实质性减产政策落地远期看供应仍偏过剩,下游聚酯 开工维持高位对需求形成支撑,短期预计PTA市场跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约:11月20日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601下跌2.05%,基差走强至26元/吨。 基本面:今日乙二醇华 ...
金信期货日刊-20251120
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 23:30
GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD 红枣期货:抄底需谨慎,震荡筑底是主基调 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/11/20 11月19日红枣期货2601合约结算价收于9332元/吨,但当前市场仍不具备明确重仓抄底条件,短多对待。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从基本面看,旧季库存同比增幅超120%,新枣集中下树进度达6-8成,供需压力尚未缓解;消费端旺季未 启,销区采购谨慎,需求缺乏实质支撑。不过期现价差已收敛,期货对现货呈现贴水状态,且仓单注册量 偏低,旧枣贴水交割规则限制了跌幅,盘面下跌空间收窄。 技术面来看,合约跌破万点后进入震荡区间,趋势的反转不是三五天就能改变的,需要足够的震荡筑底时 间。 虽然有些品种反转快一点例如烧碱、锰硅等;那些持仓量巨大,产业链牵涉广泛的品种例如铜、铝、双焦 等品种往往需要更长的横盘时间。 只有足够的时间才能完成多空力量的转换,也只有足够的时间才能让产业供需发生改变。投 ...
金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20251119
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-19 09:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the short - term PTA market is expected to follow the cost - end and fluctuate. The supply is expected to be in excess in the long - term without substantial production cut policies, while the high - level downstream polyester demand provides support [3]. - For MEG, the short - term price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate weakly. The inventory has increased significantly recently, and there is an expectation of supply increase, while the demand peak season is coming to an end [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.60%, and the basis strengthened to - 68 yuan/ton. The market price in East China was 4,640 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2][3]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end crude oil price remained stable. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.46%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The short - term PTA device operating rate will decline slightly as planned, and the spot processing fee has rebounded but is still at a low level [3]. - **Main Force's Action**: The long - position main force increased positions [3]. MEG - **Price and Basis**: On November 19, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.48%, and the basis weakened to 23 yuan/ton. The market price in East China was 3,925 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The cost - end crude oil price remained stable, and the production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol was still in the red. The weekly inventory at East China MEG ports was 66.76 tons, an increase of 4.96 tons compared to the previous period. Some ethylene glycol devices are undergoing maintenance and restart, and new devices are planned to be tested later [4]. - **Main Force's Action**: The long - position main force increased positions [4].