金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/11 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD | 主力动向 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOLDTRUST | FUTURES | CO.，LTD | | 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ | ibaotu.com | | 江西停产未有定论 碳酸锂延续大涨 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近几日，碳酸锂期货大幅拉涨，涨幅超10%，波动率上行，主要仍源于枧下窝续证事件扰动，8月9日枧下 窝采矿证将到期，市场减停产预期再度上升，减停产若落实则对短期供需平衡有直接影响。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 近期市场传言扰动较多，从官方消息来看尚未有定论，建议投资者对市场消息保持理性，本周在风险事件 落地前盘面波动较大。 从基本面来看，碳酸锂 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sharp rise in coking coal 2601 today is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, the market will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. - The July non - farm payroll data indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [15][16]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the macro - environment. A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - Alumina has high volatility, and a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a comprehensive profitability rate of nearly 60%. High daily hot metal production supports the demand for coking coal, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4]. - Outlook: If the over - production verification of coal mines is strictly implemented, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and if demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or the hot metal production of steel mills peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4]. 3.2 A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened higher in the morning, then冲高回落, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in the afternoon and closed with a red doji [8]. - Driving factor: The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares [7]. - Operation strategy: In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. 3.3 Gold - Driving factor: The July non - farm payroll data is significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold [11]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Fundamental support: The improvement of steel mill profitability has maintained a high level of hot metal production, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy [15]. 3.5 Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20]. - Driving factor: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19]. - Operation strategy: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19]. 3.6 Alumina - Market characteristic: It has high volatility due to continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm [22]. - Event: EGA condemned the Guinea government for revoking the GAC mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy on dips [22].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/07 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 焦煤回调结束，可以继续多吗？ 今日焦煤2601连续第三日大涨，引发市场高度关注。此次大涨并非偶然，而是由多因素共同作用。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，部分产地煤矿因井下事故、安全检查及环保稽查等影响产量。如山西吕梁等地部分煤矿复 产缓慢，蒙煤进口受口岸闭关影响，供应收紧。需求层面，钢铁行业盈利佳，钢厂综合盈利率近60%，铁 水日均产量高位，对焦煤需求形成有力支撑，焦化企业和钢厂补库需求进一步推高价格。 政策上，新版《矿产资源法》施行，工信部反内卷工作方案预期，以及行业协会对焦炭价格的上调，也带 动了焦煤价格。 展望后续，若煤矿超产核查严格执行，供应端收缩预期延续，需求端维持现状，焦煤2601价格有望保持强 势。不过，若蒙煤进口大幅增加，或钢厂铁水产量见顶回落，其上涨也将承压。投资者需紧密关注基本面 和政策 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/06 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 今日焦煤2601期货大涨继续昨日的大涨，一度涨停板，引发市场高度关注。此次大涨并非偶然，而是由多 因素共同作用。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，部分产地煤矿因井下事故、安全检查及环保稽查等影响产量。如山西吕梁等地部分煤矿复 产缓慢，蒙煤进口受口岸闭关影响，供应收紧。需求层面，钢铁行业盈利佳，钢厂综合盈利率近60%，铁 水日均产量高位，对焦煤需求形成有力支撑，焦化企业和钢厂补库需求进一步推高价格。 政策上，新版《矿产资源法》施行，工信部反内卷工作方案预期，以及行业协会对焦炭价格的上调，也带 动了焦煤价格。 展望后续，若煤矿超产核查严格执行，供应端收缩预期延续，需求端维持现状，焦煤2601价格有望保持强 势。不过，若蒙煤进口大幅增加，或钢厂铁水产量见顶回落，其上涨也将承压。投资者需紧密关注基本面 和政策动态 ，震荡偏多对待。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current correction of silver prices is a technical adjustment in the bull market, caused by temporary factors such as the Fed's hawkish stance, short - term strong US economic data, and domestic policies falling short of expectations. The core logic supporting the long - term strength of silver has been further strengthened during the adjustment. The report maintains the view that domestic silver will break through the 10,000 yuan/kg mark within the third quarter, and the Shanghai silver main contract below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors should take advantage of the current correction to build long positions [17][18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for Silver Price Correction - The Fed's hawkish stance: In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chair Powell's remarks were more hawkish than expected, causing the US dollar index to rise for seven consecutive trading days to 100.09 on August 1st, hitting a new high since the end of May. The stronger US dollar increased the holding cost of silver, pressuring international and domestic silver prices [4] - Short - term strong US economic data: The US GDP annualized growth rate in Q2 reached 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The PCE price index in June rose to 2.6% year - on - year, compressing the space for monetary policy shift and pushing up real interest rates, which suppressed the performance of silver [5] - Domestic policy meetings falling short of expectations: The stimulus signals released by the July Politburo economic work meeting did not meet market optimism, leading to a general correction in the domestic commodity market, and silver prices were also pressured. After the meeting, the main contract of Shanghai silver reduced positions and declined, indicating short - term departure of long - position funds [6] Factors Supporting Long - Term Silver Strength - Supply - demand structure tightening: The global silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the seventh consecutive year in 2025, with a cumulative shortage of 800 million ounces from 2021 - 2025. Mine production has been declining, and industrial demand for silver is growing. Exchange silver inventories have decreased by 18% since the beginning of the year, reaching the lowest level since 2014 [8] - Re - evaluation of financial attributes and hedging value: In the first half of 2025, global silver ETP had a net inflow of 95 million ounces, and retail investment in silver coins and bars in Asia and North America was booming. India's purchases of physical silver and silver ETFs hit record highs. In the context of geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, silver has a unique "dual - wheel drive" pattern [10] - Favorable macro - environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is over 70%, and it is almost certain to cut rates before the end of October. Global major economies' fiscal policies are still in a loose cycle, and post - pandemic excess liquidity will gradually flow into silver [11] - Sufficient momentum for the convergence of gold - silver ratio: The current gold - silver ratio is around 86, still significantly higher than the historical average of 50 - 60. If gold prices remain stable, silver needs to rise to $42 per ounce (about 10,500 yuan/kg in China) for the gold - silver ratio to return to a reasonable level, with a potential upside of over 20% [13] Technical Analysis and Investment Strategy - Technical adjustment: The current correction of silver is a healthy adjustment in the bull market. The main contract of Shanghai silver has strong support in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan, and the price stabilized after a decline on August 1st, indicating that the short - term adjustment is almost over [15] - Investment strategy: The main contract of Shanghai silver below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors can adopt the "buy on dips and build positions step - by - step" strategy to establish long positions. Silver is expected to resume its upward trend in August, and investors should seize the current buying opportunity [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of the alumina futures market may fluctuate sharply due to market sentiment, but in the long - term, the price is likely to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of supply surplus [3][4] - The short - term trend of A - share indices is mainly high - level oscillation [7] - The long - term direction of gold is still optimistic, currently in a short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] - For iron ore, with the improvement of the macro - environment, it is in a positive feedback repair state, but recent fluctuations are large, so cautious operation is needed [15][16] - The fundamentals of glass have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, with cautious operation required [20] - The new US renewable fuel policy may boost the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning, but weak exports may limit the upward momentum [23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - The sharp rise was driven by policy expectations and market sentiment. On July 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned a plan to stabilize growth in the non - ferrous industry, leading to a large influx of long - position funds. The price climbed until it hit a resistance at the 3500 yuan/ton mark [3] - The subsequent decline was due to cooling market sentiment and fundamental factors. The sharp drop in the coking coal variety last Friday night led to a callback in leading varieties, and the alumina market has an overall loose supply - demand situation, with an expanding supply surplus trend and a decline in net export data in June [3] A - share Indices - The three major A - share indices opened lower and rose in the morning, then continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, and finally closed with a low - level doji. The National Healthcare Security Administration has formulated a "new drug listing initial price mechanism", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice on the 2025 polysilicon industry special energy - saving supervision task list [7] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term outlook remains positive, and the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, with short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high pig iron output. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, with large recent fluctuations, so cautious operation is required [15][16] Glass - The supply side has not seen a significant cold - repair situation due to losses. Factory inventories are marginally decreasing, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it oscillated and declined today, and cautious operation is needed [20] Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up the Chicago soybean oil price to a contract high, and the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures will help the performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for another 548,000 barrels per day increase in September, which may lead to an oversupply and downward pressure on oil prices. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the potential secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. - PX is in a tight - balance situation with low inventory and high operating rates. With only one potential new device planned at the end of 2025 and high uncertainty, PXN has support due to new PTA device demand [4]. - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production, and multiple devices are under maintenance. The short - term polyester load is strong, but in the long run, there is an oversupply, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [4]. - Rising coal prices support the cost of ethylene glycol. Port inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand is tight. However, there is an expected increase in imports in August, and short - term prices are expected to be strong [4]. - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and the industry is in an oversupply situation. The demand for textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for the same increase in September, which may lead to oversupply and downward price pressure. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the claim of secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. PX - Current PX inventory is low, and the operating rate is high, maintaining a tight - balance situation. In 2025, only one 3 - million - ton device of Yulong Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The domestic PX output in the first half of 2025 was 18.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The annual supply in 2025 is expected to be about 47.8 billion tons, with a growth rate of about 3%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate is 82.35%, down 0.56% week - on - week, and the Asian weekly average is 71.98%, down 0.03% week - on - week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $265 per ton. The downstream PTA is still in an expansion cycle, and the supply - demand gap supports PX prices [4][8]. PTA - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently, and multiple devices are under concentrated maintenance. The downstream polyester is in the off - season, and the processing fee is 204 yuan per ton, remaining flat compared to last week and at a low point this year. With new device production, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the processing fee may be compressed. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, down 1.09% week - on - week. The spot market price is 4,750 yuan per ton, and the mainstream spot basis is 09, - 13 [4][14]. MEG - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,485 yuan per ton, down 2.05% week - on - week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 60.67%, up 1.47% week - on - week, and the coal - based capacity utilization rate is 63.87%, up 3.88% week - on - week. The gross profit has risen to 103.33 yuan per ton, up 15.42 yuan per ton week - on - week. The inventory in East China ports is 427,200 tons, down 47,800 tons week - on - week, at a historical low. Due to the delay of imported goods caused by typhoons, imports are expected to increase. Affected by coal prices, the overall price is expected to be strong [19]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation due to high - level operation. The effectiveness of potential production cuts needs further observation. The demand for long - and short - fiber textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/01 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝期货大涨转下跌，后续走势解析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，氧化铝期货市场走势跌宕起伏，先是大幅上涨，后又迅速下跌，引发了市场参与者的广泛关注。那 么，这背后的原因是什么？后续又该如何看待呢？ 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从上涨原因来看，主要是政策预期和市场情绪的推动。7月19日工信部提到即将推出有色行业稳增长方案， 鉴于之前"反内卷"政策对多晶硅、焦煤等品种的影响，多头资金大量涌入氧化铝市场 ，推动价格持续攀 升，直至突破3500元/吨整数关口才遇阻。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD | 主力动向 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOLDTRUST | FUTURES | CO.，LTD | | 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Report" - Date: July 31, 2025 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The subsequent trend of soda ash futures is likely to be broadly volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate around the cost range in the medium to long term due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels [3]. - The short - term trend of the A - share market is expected to be volatile at high levels [6]. - Gold is expected to resume its upward trend and move upwards in a volatile manner, despite recent adjustments [10][11]. - For iron ore, due to the improved macro - environment and high iron - water production, the industry is in a positive feedback repair state, but caution is needed due to large recent fluctuations [14][15]. - The glass market's fundamentals have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Caution is advised and waiting for stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - The Malaysian crude palm oil futures may benefit from the strong performance of Chicago soybean oil and Dalian edible oil futures, but weak exports may limit its upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, and about 2.8 million tons are expected to be added in the second half. Despite a decline in production during the high - temperature maintenance season in July, overall supply remains high [3]. - Demand: Photovoltaic glass is in continuous loss, the daily melting volume in production is expected to continue to decline, the rigid demand for soda ash is weakening, and there is an excess in the heavy - soda balance [3]. - Inventory: Manufacturer inventories are at a historical high. Although there has been a slight decline, the overall pressure remains large [3]. A - Share Market - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 3636 points, while other indices opened lower and continued to decline in a volatile manner [6]. - News: Sino - US will promote the scheduled extension of the US reciprocal tariffs, and Xi Jinping chaired and delivered an important speech on the current economic situation and the economic work in the second half of the year [6]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term outlook remains positive [11]. - Technical Analysis: The weekly - line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there is a high probability of a resumption of the upward trend [10]. Iron Ore - Macro - environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and iron - water production remains high due to decent steel - mill profits. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15]. - Technical Analysis: The price rose and then fell today, with large recent fluctuations. Caution is needed, and it is advisable to protect profits and wait for a stabilization opportunity [14]. Glass - Supply: There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to major losses on the supply side, and factory inventories are gradually decreasing [20]. - Demand: The replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Technical Analysis: The price rose and then fell today. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Caution is advised, and waiting for stabilization is recommended [19]. Palm Oil - Positive Factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. The strong performance of Dalian edible oil futures will also help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative Factors: Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].