金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 2 / 0 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：2月9日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.70%，基差-66元/吨和上一交易日持平。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5108元/吨，较前一交易日上涨18元/吨。成本端布伦特原油在67美元/桶的高位震荡；PTA产能利用 率较上一工作日持平至76.90%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.74天，较上周-0.16天。 主力动向：多头主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：春节假期临近，终端放假在即，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端订单天数、库存水平显示需求弱化，2月份PTA有累库预期。当 前成本端扰动偏大，原油走势不明朗，PX远端向好，预计短期PTA价格随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：2月9日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌0.03%，基差走强 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.， LTD 焦煤价格后市怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 焦煤主力合约震荡回落，供应端恢复，蒙煤通关量高位运行，进口压力犹存，下游焦企采购维持刚需；焦炭 第五轮提降预期降温，部分焦企首轮提价；焦企利润维持低位；钢厂铁水产量弱稳，采购以刚需为主；现实 双焦供需偏弱；市场对政策调减产量有预期，整体商品市场情绪变化较快。 消息面：印尼调减出口额度；国家统计局公布2025年全国房地产市场基本情况，中国2025年房地产开发投 资82788亿元，比上年下降17.2%；新建商品房销售面积同比下降8.7%，新建商品房销售额下降12.6%。后 期重点关注市场情绪、政策调控与产能约束、进口煤通关量。 技术面：当前焦煤期货在1100-1300元/吨区间震荡，1300元整数关口是强压力位，且近期冲高未放量，易 引发资金获利了结。宏观上，春节临近市场交投活跃度下降，投机需求萎缩 。 综合来看，大概率维持宽幅震荡，春节后随着下游复工，或有阶段性反弹，但整体上涨空间受限，操作上建 议以区间高抛低吸为主。 GOLDTRU ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil price volatility has increased this week, and the rebound height may be limited without clear signals of production cuts or a significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4] - PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term due to weak downstream demand [4] - Ethylene glycol is in a situation of supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [5] - Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish, but there is a risk of correction [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, oil prices fluctuated sharply due to geopolitical and Fed policy uncertainties. Tensions in the Middle East, concerns about potential supply disruptions, a reduction in US crude oil production due to force majeure, a decrease in US crude oil inventories, and a decline in the US dollar index supported oil prices [4] - OPEC+ announced a suspension of the production increase plan for the first three months of 2026 at the end of 2025, but the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute an output increase of 1.2 million barrels per day in 2026 [4] PX & PTA - Domestic PX load remained unchanged, and processing fees fell to around $300/ton. With the end of some device maintenance, PX supply and demand are expected to ease, and attention should be paid to the subsequent terminal restocking [4][10] - This week, PTA devices remained unchanged, factory inventories started to accumulate, and downstream operations weakened significantly. There is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation in February. The polyester industry's operating rate will decline rapidly, and the overall maintenance intensity exceeds that of the same period last year [4] - The current spot price of PTA is 5,068 yuan/ton, with a weekly average capacity utilization rate of 76.29%. Factory - in inventory days increased to 3.72 days. PTA processing fees are 422 yuan/ton. As future supply recovers and downstream demand weakens, PTA prices are expected to be volatile and bearish in the short term [16] MEG - At the beginning of the month, there are plans for large Saudi contract ships to enter the warehouse, and the near - term arrivals are still relatively high. The arrivals will gradually decrease from mid - February [5] - The seasonal inventory accumulation from January to February is at a high level since 2021, and the future expectation is difficult to reverse. Polyester demand is weak, the supply - demand of ethylene glycol is imbalanced, and device losses are expanding [5] - The current price of ethylene glycol is around 3,600 yuan/ton, which has a certain support. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to overseas situations [5] BZ & EB - The operating rate of pure benzene has increased, and there are expectations of restarting multiple domestic related devices, so the overall supply is expected to rise. This week, the pure benzene port inventory remained flat but is still at a high level [5][38] - It is expected that during the Spring Festival, the load reduction of styrene will be limited under high profits, while other varieties with weak profits may have obvious load reductions. In February, the overall demand will remain stable month - on - month, and it is expected to gradually enter a seasonal inventory accumulation pattern [5] - The overall operating rate of downstream 3S is not high, showing an inventory reduction trend. With the subsequent resumption of some devices and the high inventory of pure benzene, there is a risk of correction. Pure benzene and styrene are generally cautiously bullish [5] Polyester Industry - The weekly average capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 79.53%, a decrease of 2.34 percentage points from last week. As the Spring Festival approaches, multiple devices are under maintenance, and the domestic polyester industry output continues to decline significantly [30] - The operating rate of sample enterprises in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving industry is 22.47%, a decrease of 19.94% from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days is 6.35 days, a decrease of 0.35 days from last week. The average level of terminal weaving finished product inventory is 26.08 days, a decrease of 2.72 days from last week [30]

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upward space is limited. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4] - For other commodities: A shares adjusted downward with low trading volume, and the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to recover tomorrow; gold is expected to continue fluctuating, so participation should be cautious; iron ore is seeking a bottom with weak domestic demand support and a bearish outlook; glass has a bullish tendency with minor daily adjustments; methanol may fluctuate slightly and is expected to stabilize as demand recovers; pulp is in a range - bound trend due to slow domestic consumption recovery [7][10][11][14][17][21] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **External Events**: Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports due to a government production - cut plan, with some 2026 output quotas potentially cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025. This has led to a rise in export quotes, a limit - up in the A - share coal sector, and a stronger coking coal futures market [3] - **Domestic Situation**: As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines are on holiday, reducing supply. However, Mongolian coal imports at the Ganqimaodu Port remain high. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, with fundamental improvements [3] - **Technical Analysis**: Coking coal futures are oscillating between 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with 1300 yuan being a strong resistance level. Trading volume did not increase during recent rallies, and market activity is low due to the approaching Spring Festival [3] A Shares - The overall A - share market adjusted downward with low trading volume today. Technically, the short - term adjustment of the Shanghai Composite Index is nearing the end, and it is expected to recover tomorrow [7] Gold - Gold prices have continued to decline significantly, and fluctuations are expected to continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus has intensified. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still weak. Technically, it has broken through the support platform, and the outlook is bearish [11][12] Glass - Daily melting volume has changed little, and inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side optimization. Technically, it adjusted today, but the bullish view remains [14][15] Methanol - Methanol at ports may fluctuate slightly due to expected import reduction. Attention should be paid to downstream resumption progress, port inventory changes, and coal price trends. Prices are expected to stabilize as demand recovers [17] Pulp - Since the end of last year, the supply - demand pattern of pulp has improved, driving prices to bottom out. However, the slow recovery of domestic terminal consumption restricts price increases, and the futures market is in a range - bound trend [21]

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 2 / 0 5 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5140元/吨，较前一交易日下跌10元/吨。成本端布伦特原油在68美元/桶的高位震荡；PTA产能利用 率较上一工作日持平至76.90%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.74天，较上周-0.16天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：春节假期临近，终端放假在即，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端订单天数、库存水平显示需求弱化，2月份PTA有累库预期。当 前成本端扰动偏大，原油走势不明朗，PX远端向好，短期PTA价格震荡偏空看待。 MEG 主力合约：2月5日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌0.87%，基差走弱至-122元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二醇华东地区市场价3642元/吨，较前一交易日下跌40元/吨。成本端原油、煤炭价格承压；华东主港地区MEG库存总 量83.6万吨，较上一 ...

Report Overview - The report is a daily publication from Goldtrust Futures Research Institute, dated February 5, 2026 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillation. After the Spring Festival, there may be a staged rebound, but the overall upside is limited. Operations should focus on high - selling and low - buying within the range [4] Summary by Category Coking Coal - Indonesia's government's large - scale production cut plan has led to miners suspending spot coal exports. Some companies' 2026 production quotas may be cut by 40% - 70% compared to 2025, causing export quotes to skyrocket and driving the A - share coal sector to a daily limit and coking coal futures to strengthen [3] - As the Spring Festival approaches, domestic coal mines in major production areas are starting to arrange for holidays and production suspension, leading to a seasonal low in supply. However, the Mongolian coal customs clearance at the Ganqimaodu Port remains high, with relatively sufficient imports. In February, coking coal supply decreases while demand remains stable, and the fundamentals improve marginally [3] - The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with the 1,300 - yuan integer mark being a strong resistance level. The recent rally lacked volume, which may trigger profit - taking by funds. Macroscopically, market trading activity decreases as the Spring Festival approaches, and speculative demand shrinks [3] Stock Index Futures - The A - share market rebounded after hitting the bottom today, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the gap. It is facing short - term pressure near the current level, and it is recommended to reduce positions on rallies for now [6][7] Gold - Gold prices continue to decline sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10] Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, it has broken through the platform support and is regarded as oscillating bearishly [12][13] Glass - The daily melting volume of glass has changed little, and the inventory has slightly decreased. The main drivers are the policy - side stimulus policies and the anti - involution policies for the supply - side clearance. Technically, it closed with a large positive line today, and the trading idea has turned to oscillating bullishly [15][16] Methanol - As the Spring Festival approaches, the methanol market has abundant supply and weakening demand. Enterprises are smoothly clearing their inventories but mostly selling at low prices. The market lacks positive support, and the price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term [18] Pulp - From the perspective of the pulp fundamentals, the supply - demand pattern has improved month - on - month since the end of last year, driving the pulp price to bottom out and rebound. However, the recovery of domestic terminal consumption is still slow, which should limit the speed and space of price increases. The futures market has shown an oscillating pattern in the recent period [21]

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 主力合约：2月4日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨1.36%，基差走强至-52元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5150元/吨，较前一交易日上涨65元/吨。成本端布伦特原油再度反弹至67.5美元/桶左右；PTA产能 利用率较上一工作日+1.07至76.90%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.58天，较上周-0.04天。 主力动向：多头主力增仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：春节假期临近，终端放假在即，聚酯减产幅度扩大，终端订单天数、库存水平显示需求弱化，2月份PTA有累库预期。当 前成本端扰动偏大，原油走势波动较大，PX远端向好，短期PTA价格震荡偏空看待。 2 0 2 6 / 0 2 / 0 4 MEG 主力合约：2月4日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨0.64%，基差走强至- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coal**: Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak, restocking is ending, and there is significant upward pressure. In the short - term, prices are more likely to fluctuate and decline. After the Spring Festival, there may be a phased rebound, but the overall upside is limited. It is recommended to use a high - selling and low - buying strategy within the range [3][4]. - **A - shares**: The A - share market opened higher, then declined, and finally rebounded to close higher. The next day's trend is crucial, and it is recommended to short on rallies for now [6]. - **Gold**: Gold prices continue to fall sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [11]. - **Iron Ore**: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented. The domestic demand support is weak, and the price is expected to be bearish with a downward trend [13][14]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance. It is recommended to view it from a volatility perspective [18]. - **Methanol**: The supply - demand reduction state does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred. The inventory reduction progress is average, and high port inventories suppress the market. Short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on overseas situation developments [21]. - **Pulp**: The pulp spot market operates stably. Some pulp mills and paper mills are under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is under pressure, and downstream demand has insufficient momentum. The futures market shows a range - bound trend [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coal - **Supply**: In early February, coal mines will gradually stop production for the holiday, increasing the expectation of supply contraction. However, the average daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal at ports is about 160,000 tons, and the import volume is stable. The overall supply contraction is limited. The new coal mine safety regulations mainly cause speculative expectations, and there has been no actual large - scale production reduction [4]. - **Demand**: The first round of coke price increase has been implemented, but coking is still in a loss state, and the second - round increase faces great resistance. Steel mills' hot metal production remains at around 2.28 million tons, but the profit is low. They only purchase coking coal as needed, and the winter storage restocking is almost over, with limited new demand [4]. - **Technical**: The coking coal futures are oscillating in the range of 1,100 - 1,200 yuan/ton. The 1,200 - yuan integer mark is a strong resistance level. Recently, the price failed to break through with high trading volume, which may trigger profit - taking. As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading activity decreases, and speculative demand shrinks [4]. A - shares - **Market Performance**: The A - share market opened higher, declined, and then rebounded to close higher. The daily - line chart showed a mid - sized bullish candlestick with a lower shadow [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Temporarily short on rallies [6]. Gold - **Market Trend**: Gold prices continue to fall sharply, and the volatility is expected to continue for some time [11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Exercise caution when participating [11]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is further fermented [14]. - **Demand**: Except for exports, the domestic demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors is still weak [14]. - **Technical**: The price has broken through the platform support, and the market is expected to be bearish [13]. Glass - **Supply - demand**: The daily melting volume changes little, and the inventory is slightly reduced. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [18]. - **Technical**: The price closed up today, and it is recommended to view it from a volatility perspective [17]. Methanol - **Supply - demand**: The supply - demand reduction state does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred. The inventory reduction progress is average, and high port inventories suppress the market [21]. - **Market Uncertainty**: There are still uncertainties in overseas geopolitical situations, and the Iranian situation is undetermined. Short - term trading is likely to be mainly based on overseas situation developments [21]. Pulp - **Supply - demand**: The pulp spot market operates stably. Some pulp mills and paper mills are under maintenance. The domestic port inventory is under pressure, and downstream demand has insufficient momentum. Paper mills' gross profit has increased as production costs decline [24]. - **Technical**: The futures market shows a range - bound trend [24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - For PTA, due to the approaching Spring Festival, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances and unclear crude oil trends, the short - term PTA price is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] - For MEG, although the comprehensive operating rate has decreased, port inventories are still increasing and there are large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is hard to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - **主力合约情况**：On February 3, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.08%, and the basis strengthened to -63 yuan/ton [2] - **基本面情况**：The market price of PTA in East China today was 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - side Brent crude oil rose sharply and then fell back to $66/barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.58 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from last week [3] - **主力动向**：Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - **走势预期**：As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances and unclear crude oil trends, the short - term PTA price is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] MEG - **主力合约情况**：On February 3, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 1.98%, and the basis strengthened to -107 yuan/ton [4] - **基本面情况**：The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - side crude oil and coal prices were under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 82.2 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous period [4] - **主力动向**：Short - position main players increased their positions [4] - **走势预期**：Although the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol has decreased, port inventories are still increasing and there are large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is hard to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. Considering the previous price trend, there is a certain support around 3600 yuan/ton, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metals is due to forced liquidation and margin hikes triggered by the initial spark of the Wash nomination, with Shanghai silver expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term. A - shares are expected to continue adjusting, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies. Gold is likely to remain volatile, so caution is advised. Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, and a volatile approach is recommended. Glass is expected to turn volatile and bearish in the short - term. Methanol trading will likely focus on overseas situation developments. Pulp futures are in a range - bound trend [3][5][10][12][15][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Silver - Core decline drivers include regulatory strict control (the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin to 18% and limited opening positions to 800 lots), a hawkish macro - environment (the Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% and Powell's hawkish stance), profit - taking due to a previous over 30% increase and a 12% reduction in CFTC non - commercial net long positions, and the substitution effect of copper for silver. In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), it is volatile and bearish; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), the price may recover under certain conditions. Operation advice is to avoid blind bottom - fishing and short at resistance levels [3]. 3.2 A - shares - The overall A - share market declined unilaterally with significantly reduced trading volume. Technically, there is a need for further adjustment at the daily - line level, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [5]. 3.3 Gold - Gold prices continued to fall sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the domestic demand support from real estate and infrastructure is weak. Technically, it closed lower today, and a volatile approach is recommended, paying attention to the lower platform support [12][13]. 3.5 Glass - The daily melting volume changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and a short - term volatile and bearish approach is adopted [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - Fundamentally, the state of both supply and demand reduction does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is gradually being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred as expected. The de - stocking progress is average, and the relatively high port inventory suppresses the market. Overseas geopolitical uncertainties remain, especially the situation in Iran is undetermined, so short - term trading will likely focus on overseas situation developments [19]. 3.7 Pulp - The pulp spot market is operating stably, with some pulp and paper mills undergoing maintenance shutdowns. The domestic port inventory is still under pressure, and the downstream demand for base paper lacks the driving force to increase, mainly maintaining rigid procurement. As the production cost decreases, the paper mills' gross profit has rebounded. The pulp futures have shown a range - bound trend recently [21].