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金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260203
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 12:55
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - For PTA, due to the approaching Spring Festival, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances and unclear crude oil trends, the short - term PTA price is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] - For MEG, although the comprehensive operating rate has decreased, port inventories are still increasing and there are large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is hard to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents PTA - **主力合约情况**:On February 3, the PTA main futures contract TA605 fell 1.08%, and the basis strengthened to -63 yuan/ton [2] - **基本面情况**:The market price of PTA in East China today was 5085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - side Brent crude oil rose sharply and then fell back to $66/barrel. The PTA capacity utilization rate remained flat at 75.83% compared with the previous working day, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.58 days, a decrease of 0.04 days from last week [3] - **主力动向**:Long - position main players reduced their positions [3] - **走势预期**:As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, terminal factories are about to have holidays, polyester production cuts are expanding, demand is weakening, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. With large cost - side disturbances and unclear crude oil trends, the short - term PTA price is expected to be volatile and bearish [3] MEG - **主力合约情况**:On February 3, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2605 fell 1.98%, and the basis strengthened to -107 yuan/ton [4] - **基本面情况**:The market price of ethylene glycol in East China today was 3657 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cost - side crude oil and coal prices were under pressure. The total inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 82.2 tons, an increase of 1 ton from the previous period [4] - **主力动向**:Short - position main players increased their positions [4] - **走势预期**:Although the comprehensive operating rate of ethylene glycol has decreased, port inventories are still increasing and there are large - ship arrival plans in February, so the inventory accumulation expectation is hard to reverse. With weakening downstream polyester demand before the festival, there is a supply - demand imbalance. Considering the previous price trend, there is a certain support around 3600 yuan/ton, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate at the bottom [4]
金信期货日刊-20260203
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 23:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in precious metals is due to forced liquidation and margin hikes triggered by the initial spark of the Wash nomination, with Shanghai silver expected to be volatile and bearish in the short - term. A - shares are expected to continue adjusting, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies. Gold is likely to remain volatile, so caution is advised. Iron ore is in the process of finding a bottom, and a volatile approach is recommended. Glass is expected to turn volatile and bearish in the short - term. Methanol trading will likely focus on overseas situation developments. Pulp futures are in a range - bound trend [3][5][10][12][15][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Silver - Core decline drivers include regulatory strict control (the Shanghai Futures Exchange raised the margin to 18% and limited opening positions to 800 lots), a hawkish macro - environment (the Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75% and Powell's hawkish stance), profit - taking due to a previous over 30% increase and a 12% reduction in CFTC non - commercial net long positions, and the substitution effect of copper for silver. In the short - term (1 - 2 weeks), it is volatile and bearish; in the medium - term (1 - 3 months), the price may recover under certain conditions. Operation advice is to avoid blind bottom - fishing and short at resistance levels [3]. 3.2 A - shares - The overall A - share market declined unilaterally with significantly reduced trading volume. Technically, there is a need for further adjustment at the daily - line level, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [5]. 3.3 Gold - Gold prices continued to fall sharply, and it is expected that the volatility will continue for some time. Caution is advised when participating [10]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a loose supply is further fermented. On the demand side, except for exports, the domestic demand support from real estate and infrastructure is weak. Technically, it closed lower today, and a volatile approach is recommended, paying attention to the lower platform support [12][13]. 3.5 Glass - The daily melting volume changed little, and inventory decreased slightly. The main drivers are policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and a short - term volatile and bearish approach is adopted [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - Fundamentally, the state of both supply and demand reduction does not support the market. Although the reduction in imports is gradually being realized, the negative impact of coastal olefin plant shutdowns has also occurred as expected. The de - stocking progress is average, and the relatively high port inventory suppresses the market. Overseas geopolitical uncertainties remain, especially the situation in Iran is undetermined, so short - term trading will likely focus on overseas situation developments [19]. 3.7 Pulp - The pulp spot market is operating stably, with some pulp and paper mills undergoing maintenance shutdowns. The domestic port inventory is still under pressure, and the downstream demand for base paper lacks the driving force to increase, mainly maintaining rigid procurement. As the production cost decreases, the paper mills' gross profit has rebounded. The pulp futures have shown a range - bound trend recently [21].
金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260202
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-02 09:22
金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 2 / 0 2 主力合约:2月2日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天下跌4.89%,基差走弱至-81元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面:今日PTA华东地区市场价5125元/吨,较前一交易日下跌165元/吨。成本端布伦特原油继续暴涨后回落至66美元/桶;PTA产能 利用率较上一工作日持平至75.83%;周度PTA工厂库存天数3.58天,较上周-0.04天。 主力动向:空头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 走势预期:春节假期临近,终端放假在即,聚酯减产幅度扩大,终端订单天数、库存水平显示需求弱化,2月份PTA有累库预期。当 前成本端扰动偏大,原油走势不明朗,PX远端向好,短期PTA价格震荡偏空看待。 MEG 主力合约:2月2日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌4.63%,基差走弱至-131元/吨。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD ...
金信期货日刊-20260202
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-02-01 23:31
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 2 / 2 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., 沪银价格下跌,后市怎么看? 沪银短期震荡偏空,监管调控+获利了结+美联储偏鹰压制银价。 1. 核心下跌驱动 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 - 监管严控:上期所提保至18%、开仓限额800手,抑制投机,1月30日沪银主力收29919元,跌6.03%,多杀 多加剧波动。 - 宏观偏鹰:美联储维持利率3.5%-3.75%,鲍威尔表态偏鹰,降息预期降温,美元反弹压制贵金属,白银高波 动属性放大跌幅 。 - 资金与技术:前期涨幅超30%触发止盈,CFTC非商业净多头减12%,技术超买后技术性回调需求强烈。 - 替代效应:LME铜价走高,部分工业用户以铜代银,削弱白银工业需求支撑。 2. 后续走势与操作 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源:公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考,市场有风险,入市需谨慎 LTD - 短期(1- ...
金信期货观点-20260130
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 09:58
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Oil prices rose significantly this week, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, reduced US crude oil production, decreased US crude oil inventories, and a falling dollar index. However, the long - term production increase trend remains unchanged, and the rebound height of oil prices may be limited without clear production cut signals or significant escalation of geopolitical situations [4]. - The overall valuation of the chemical sector has increased due to rising crude oil prices. PX supply is expected to ease, and PTA may face inventory accumulation in February. PTA prices are expected to oscillate at a high level following the cost side [4]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been alleviated, but the medium - term oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets have strengthened, but their supply - demand has turned loose, with limited upward momentum and a risk of correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - This week, Brent crude oil reached $70/barrel. Tensions in the Middle East and concerns about potential supply disruptions, along with reduced US production and inventory, and a falling dollar, supported oil prices [4]. - OPEC+ announced a suspension of production increase from January to March 2026, but the long - term increase trend remains. Non - OPEC+ producers are expected to contribute 1.2 million barrels per day of production growth in 2026 [4]. PX & PTA - PX load remained unchanged, with processing fees stable at around $350/ton. Supply is expected to be looser in the future, and attention should be paid to terminal restocking [4]. - PTA plant inventory decreased slightly this week, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in February. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level with the cost side [4]. - As of Friday, the PTA spot market price was 5,290 yuan/ton, up 241 yuan/ton from last week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.83%, unchanged from last week. Factory inventory days decreased by 0.04 days to 3.58 days [16]. - PTA processing fees were 416 yuan/ton, up 61 yuan/ton from last week. The price increase was mainly due to the strong support of PX prices [16]. MEG - Domestic ethylene glycol synthesis gas plants are undergoing spring maintenance, and the overall strengthening of the coal and polyester sectors has boosted its valuation, reducing supply pressure [5]. - Port inventory reached 812,000 tons, but imports are expected to decline in February due to overseas plant shutdowns. The price is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [5]. - As of Friday, the ethylene glycol price in East China was 3,814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton from last week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate was 61.50%, up 0.44% month - on - month [25]. BZ & EB - The pure benzene market has strengthened, but the supply - demand has turned loose, and there is a risk of correction [5]. - The styrene plant capacity utilization rate was 69.28%, down 0.35% month - on - month. Both factory and port inventories have increased, but the inventory pressure has been alleviated [38]. Polyester and Terminal Weaving - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry was 81.81%, down 1.81 percentage points from last week. The production and capacity utilization rate declined significantly due to pre - holiday plant maintenance [30]. - The开工 rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving sample enterprises was 42.41%, down 8.79% from the previous period. The average order days of terminal weaving were 6.70 days, down 0.85 days from last week, and the average finished - product inventory level was 28.79 days, up 0.48 days from last week [30].
金信期货日刊-20260130
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-30 01:06
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., 棕榈油持续上涨,后市怎么看? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1月29日,棕榈油主力P2605收9362元/吨,涨幅1.15%,盘中最高9396元/吨,创三个月新高,核心驱动为供 应收缩与需求回暖。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 供应端,MPOA数据显示马棕1月1-20日产量环比降14.43%,高频数据显示1月1-25日出口环比增7.97%- 9.97%,季节性减产叠加出口改善,库存去化加速。 需求端,印度斋月备货启动,国内节前备货支撑消费,美国生柴政策利多预期提振植物油需求。 政策面,印尼延续B40生物柴油政策,美国RVO终案落地前,生柴需求预期稳定,对价格形成支撑。 中长期需警惕供应恢复压力,2-3月主产国或逐步进入增产周期,产量回升将影响库存去化节奏 。此外,原油 价格波动、马币汇率及油脂间价差变化也会干扰价格走势。 操作上,短期轻仓做多 ...
金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260129
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 11:17
金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD PTA 主力合约:1月29日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨0.34%,基差走弱至-72元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面:今日PTA华东地区市场价5250元/吨,较前一交易日持平。成本端布伦特原油继续上涨到68美元/桶以上;PTA产能利用率较 上一工作日持平至75.83%;周度PTA工厂库存天数3.58天,较上周-0.04天。 主力动向:多空主力分歧 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 走势预期:当前PTA加工费高位但PTA装置暂无进一步提升负荷的计划。终端织造库存累积;关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况,预计 春节前终端需求将转弱,当前原料涨价过快与节前避险心态形成矛盾,短期预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约:1月29日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605下跌0.03%,基差 ...
金信期货日刊-20260129
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-29 01:14
金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., 棕榈油持续上涨,后市怎么看? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1月28日,棕榈油主力P2605收9270元/吨,涨幅1.49%,盘中最高9306元/吨,创三个月新高,核心驱动为供 应收缩与需求回暖 。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 供应端,MPOA数据显示马棕1月1-20日产量环比降14.43%,高频数据显示1月1-25日出口环比增7.97%- 9.97%,季节性减产叠加出口改善,库存去化加速 。 需求端,印度斋月备货启动,国内节前备货支撑消费,美国生柴政策利多预期提振植物油需求 。 政策面,印尼延续B40生物柴油政策,美国RVO终案落地前,生柴需求预期稳定,对价格形成支撑。 中长期需警惕供应恢复压力,2-3月主产国或逐步进入增产周期,产量回升将影响库存去化节奏 。此外,原油 价格波动、马币汇率及油脂间价差变化也会干扰价格走势 。 操作上,短期 ...
金信期货PTA乙二醇日刊-20260128
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 09:30
本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 2 8 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.,LTD PTA 金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 主力合约:1月28日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨1.24%,基差走强至-64元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面:今日PTA华东地区市场价5250元/吨,较前一交易日上涨30元/吨。成本端布伦特原油大幅上涨到68美元/桶附近;PTA产能利 用率较上一工作日持平至75.83%;周度PTA工厂库存天数3.62天,较上周持平。 主力动向:多头主力增仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 走势预期:当前PTA加工费高位但PTA装置暂无进一步提升负荷的计划。终端织造库存累积;关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况,预计 春节前终端需求将转弱,当前原料涨价过快与节前避险心态形成矛盾,短期预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约:1月28日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨0.35%,基 ...
金信期货日刊-20260128
Jin Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 00:52
GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD 棕榈油持续上涨,后市怎么看? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1月27日,棕榈油主力P2605收9238元/吨,涨幅2.67%,盘中最高9248元/吨,创三个月新高,核心驱动为供 应收缩与需求回暖 。 金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 1 / 2 8 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品,为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益,请勿复制、传播、销售,否则将承担法律责任!包图网将对作品进行维权,按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿! 供应端,MPOA数据显示马棕1月1-20日产量环比降14.43%,高频数据显示1月1-25日出口环比增7.97%- 9.97%,季节性减产叠加出口改善,库存去化加速 。 需求端,印度斋月备货启动,国内节前备货支撑消费,美国生柴政策利多预期提振植物油需求 。 政策面,印尼延续B40生物柴油政策,美国RVO终案落地前,生柴需求预期稳定,对价格形成支撑。 中长期需警惕供应恢复压力,2-3月主产国或逐步进入增产周期,产量回升将影响库存去化节奏 。此外,原油 价格波动、马币汇率及油脂间价差变化也会干扰价格走势 。 操作 ...