1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass futures showed a V-shaped trend today. The market has significant differences in the future direction of glass futures. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillatory and bullish pattern. Investors need to closely monitor changes in supply - demand relationships, policy trends, and capital flows [3][4] - A-share market: After the three major A-share indices opened lower today, they declined and then closed with a small positive line. With the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] - Gold: Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold, the long - term outlook remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] - Iron ore: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15][16] - Palm oil: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures - Market performance: Glass futures showed a V - shaped trend today. The morning session declined due to market sentiment and fundamental factors, and rebounded in the afternoon [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass is at a relatively high level, and supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still sluggish, and downstream demand for glass has not improved significantly. Although there is some speculative demand, it is difficult to form effective support [3] - Outlook: If there are favorable policies for the real - estate market or measures for glass industry capacity regulation, it may change the current supply - demand expectations and push up glass futures prices. If demand remains weak and the high - inventory problem cannot be solved, the upward space of glass futures will be limited, or it may continue to decline [4] - Technical analysis: The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs. Factory inventories are gradually decreasing, but the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong. Fundamentals have not changed significantly. Recently, the trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Today, it was consolidating at a low level, and investors should operate cautiously and wait for stabilization [20][21] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower today, declined, and then closed with a small positive line [8] - News influence: The implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per person, stimulates consumption. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] 3.3 Gold - Market influence: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in gold [12] - Technical analysis: The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] 3.4 Iron Ore - Market environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16] - Technical analysis: It rebounded slightly today. Investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15] 3.5 Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [24] - Negative factors: Weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum of the market [24]

Group 1: Overall Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple futures, including coking coal, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and palm oil [3][7][11] Group 2: Coking Coal Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 25, affected by policy expectations and production checks, some coking coal futures contracts had a "five - consecutive - board" increase, with prices soaring from 709 yuan/ton in early June to 1259 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 77.57%. However, that night, the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued position - limit measures, leading to a more than 10% plunge in the main contract [3] - **Fundamentals**: Previously, production in Shanxi and other places was affected by environmental protection and safety supervision, causing supply shortages. The rising futures prices also drove spot replenishment and hoarding. But regulatory measures such as limiting open positions and increasing handling fees were introduced to cool down the speculation [3] - **Future Trend**: In the short term, the market sentiment is unstable, and there may be a rebound if more funds enter. In the medium - to - long term, the regulatory attitude to curb excessive speculation is clear. Coal production capacity has room for release, imports from Mongolia and Russia have increased by 25%, and port coal stocks are high. Meanwhile, demand is weak, with construction steel usage shrinking by over 10% and steel mills having low acceptance of high coking coal prices. So, the price is likely to return to fundamental - driven and maintain a wide - range, slightly bullish oscillation [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened lower and then rebounded on Monday, closing with a small positive line. The mid - year work conference aims to consolidate the stable and positive trend of the capital market. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9] Group 4: Gold Futures - After the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduction of the annual interest - rate cut expectation, gold prices adjusted. But the overall long - term trend remains positive. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is likely to resume an upward trend, showing an oscillating upward pattern [12][13] Group 5: Iron Ore Futures - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, so iron - water production remains high, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, the daily - line has been declining, so cautious operation is needed to protect profits [17] Group 6: Glass Futures - The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are gradually decreasing, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, the price limit was hit today, so cautious operation and waiting for stabilization are recommended [21][22] Group 7: Palm Oil Futures - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 25, 2025, coking coal hit the daily limit four times, and on the reporting day, it hit the daily limit again with a 7.98% increase, closing at 1,259 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed lower, with an overall volatile adjustment and a small negative - line close. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, but the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly line and is likely to resume its upward trend [11][12]. - Iron ore has declined continuously at the daily - line level, but the overall black industry is still on an upward trend, and the focus is on protecting profits [15]. - The glass market has no significant change in fundamentals. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, and the upward trend of the bulls continues [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit its upward momentum [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: On July 25, 2025, coking coal hit the daily limit four times, and on the reporting day, it hit the daily limit again with a 7.98% increase, closing at 1,259 yuan [3]. - **Supply - side Factors**: The National Energy Administration issued a verification notice on coal mine over - production on July 22, which affected the market's supply expectation. In addition, safety inspections were strengthened after mine accidents in Shanxi in late May and early June, and recent heavy rainfall in major production areas restricted production and transportation. Mongolian coal imports also decreased, widening the supply gap [3]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong demand for coking coal. Coking enterprises have initiated a second price increase, which is likely to be implemented, and downstream procurement is active, supporting the price [3]. - **Risk**: The actual implementation of the production - capacity verification policy needs to be monitored. If the supply - side pressure does not tighten as expected, the coking coal price may adjust [4]. A - share Market - **Market Performance**: The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed lower, with an overall volatile adjustment and a small negative - line close [8]. - **Policy**: Relevant ministries and commissions are taking actions to prevent "involution - style" vicious competition [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Gold - **Price Movement**: Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, but the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly line and is likely to resume its upward trend [11][12]. Iron Ore - **Market Environment**: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and the molten iron output remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Iron ore has declined continuously at the daily - line level, but the overall black industry is still on an upward trend, and the focus is on protecting profits [15]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: There is no significant loss - induced cold repair in the supply side, the factory inventory is gradually decreasing, but the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and there is no significant change in the fundamentals [20]. - **Trend**: The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, and the upward trend of the bulls continues [19]. Palm Oil - **Positive Factors**: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. The strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [22]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit its upward momentum [22].

Report on Different Commodities 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Pig**: The current situation of oversupply continues. The pig price is expected to remain weak next week, but the policy-driven inventory reduction expectation boosts the futures price. It is recommended to observe the market situation [5][6]. - **Egg**: As the egg price reaches a high level, the market acceptance is limited, and the market trading slows down. It is recommended to enter the market at a low price and focus on the 01 contract [20]. - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic policies have new changes, and the short - term is a mix of long and short factors. It is recommended to make long - term layouts at low prices [33]. - **Palm Oil**: The decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and increase in production suppress the futures price, while the domestic price is relatively firm. The import profit is improving, and it is expected to remain weak in the short term [46]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Demand**: In the hot weather, pork consumption is in the off - season, and the demand is limited. The weekly slaughter volume of the sample is 1.5144 million heads, a 3.02% increase from last week [5]. - **Supply**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs requires reasonable elimination of sows and reduction of secondary fattening. The inventory of sows in 123 large - scale farms in June increased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year. In July, the risk of swine fever persists, and the elimination of sows may increase [5]. - **Inventory**: In June, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 0.30% month - on - month and 5.63% year - on - year. In May, the inventory of 85 small and medium - sized farms increased by 0.57% month - on - month and 7.00% year - on - year [5]. - **Profit**: The pig - raising profit is still divided. The average 30 - week profit of self - breeding and self - raising is 72.10 yuan per head, a decrease of 42.76 yuan per head compared with last week. The average 30 - week loss of purchasing piglets is 117.52 yuan per head, an increase of 45.68 yuan per head compared with last week [5]. - **Conclusion**: The national average pig - slaughtering price this week is 14.25 yuan/kg, a 2.13% decrease from last week and a 25.39% decrease year - on - year. The pig price rebounds and then continues to fall, and the large - scale farms accelerate the slaughtering rhythm [6]. Egg - **Demand**: The egg sales volume in five representative sales areas is 5,875.68 tons, a 2.05% increase from last week. The egg price in the production area is strong, and the domestic sales in the production area are good [19]. - **Supply**: The shipment volume of 15 representative markets in the main production areas is 6,312.25 tons, a 1.33% increase from last week and a 16.81% decrease year - on - year. The shipment volume first increases and then decreases this week [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Thursday this week, the production - link inventory is 0.50 days, a 13.8% decrease from last week; the circulation - link inventory is 0.58 days, a 21.62% decrease from last week. It is expected that the inventory in the breeding and circulation links will increase slightly next week [19]. - **Profit**: The cost of egg - laying chicken farming this week is 3.54 yuan/jin, a 0.28% increase from last week. The farming profit is - 0.32 yuan/jin, a 58.44% increase from last week. The egg price has increased significantly this week, and the farming profit has increased significantly [20]. Soybean Meal - **Demand**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs' policy is negative for soybean meal demand [32]. - **Supply**: As of the week of July 18, the good - quality rate of soybeans in 18 US states is 68%, a 2% decrease from the previous week, the same as last year. The proportion of high - quality soybeans in Argentina is 58%, the same as the previous week and higher than last year. The inventory of imported soybeans in major domestic oil mills is 7.12 million tons, with a slight decrease week - on - week and an increase month - on - month [32]. - **Inventory**: The domestic soybean meal inventory is 1.01 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons week - on - week and 500,000 tons month - on - month, but a decrease of 280,000 tons year - on - year [32]. - **Profit**: The profit from importing Brazilian and Argentine soybeans for oil extraction first rises and then falls this week [32]. Palm Oil - **Demand**: Indonesia is studying increasing the biodiesel blending ratio, and the palm oil imports of India and China have increased significantly [46]. - **Supply**: From July 1 - 20, the yield of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches increased by 7.03%, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16%, and the palm oil production increased by 6.19%. It is still in the traditional production - increasing period [46]. - **Inventory**: The commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions is 591,400 tons, a 5.04% increase from last week and a 23.49% increase from last year [46]. - **Profit**: As of July 24, the FOB price of palm oil for the August shipment is 1,039 US dollars/ton, an increase of 29 US dollars/ton from last week. The import cost is 9,145 yuan/ton, an increase of 214 yuan/ton. The hedging profit is - 41 yuan/ton, an increase of 134 yuan/ton from last week [46].

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for coking coal has been ignited, with prices reaching the daily limit for the third time. The price increase is driven by tightened supply expectations due to production - inspection policies and various supply - side factors, as well as strong demand from steel mills and coking enterprises [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards. Gold is likely to restart its upward trend. The iron ore market is in a positive feedback repair state, and its short - term trend cannot be determined. The glass market shows a continued uptrend, and the palm oil market's upside may be restricted by weak exports [7][11][15][18][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - On July 23, coking coal hit the second daily limit, and on the current day, it hit the limit again with a 7.97% increase, closing at 1198.5 yuan. The National Energy Administration's production - overrun verification notice on July 22 and other factors have tightened supply expectations [3]. - On the supply side, production has been affected by safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi and rainfall in major production areas, and Mongolian coal imports have decreased. On the demand side, steel mills have good profits, high iron - water production, and coking enterprises are likely to raise prices for the second time, with strong downstream procurement [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index standing firm at 3600 points. Affected by factors such as Hainan's customs closure and anti - involution in various industries, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. After sufficient weekly - line adjustments, it is likely to restart its upward trend [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and iron - water production remains high due to good steel - mill profits. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it is in a high - level consolidation, and the trend cannot be determined to have ended [15]. Glass - The supply side has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are gradually decreasing, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power. The market is mainly driven by news and sentiment, with a continued uptrend [18][19]. Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has boosted Chicago soybean oil prices, which is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit its upward momentum [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened strongly and hit the daily limit, with a gain of 11% and closing at 1,135.5 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market again [3]. - The market expects a tightening of coking coal supply due to the National Energy Administration's verification notice on over - production of coal mines on July 22, leading to a large influx of funds and pushing the price to the limit up [4]. - In the A - share market, the three major indexes showed a pattern of rising first and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,600 points during the session and finally closing with a high - level doji star [9]. - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices, but the long - term upward trend remains [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Movement**: On July 23, 2025, the main contract of coking coal opened and hit the daily limit, with a 11% increase, closing at 1,135.5 yuan [3]. - **Supply Factors**: The National Energy Administration's notice on coal mine over - production, safety inspections after mine accidents in Shanxi, rainfall affecting production and transportation in main producing areas, and a decline in Mongolian coal imports have all contributed to a supply gap [4]. - **Demand Factors**: Steel mills have good profits, high hot metal production, and coking enterprises' second price increase is likely to be implemented, leading to strong downstream demand [4]. Stock Index Futures - The US Treasury Secretary announced that the third round of China - US consultations will be held next week, and it is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate [8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, after sufficient weekly adjustments, gold is likely to resume its upward trend and is expected to fluctuate upwards [13]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, hot metal production remains high due to good steel mill profits, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, it is not yet certain that the upward trend has ended, and the focus is on protecting profits [17]. Glass - There has been no significant change in the fundamentals, with no major cold - repair situation in the supply side, marginal reduction in factory inventories, and weak restocking motivation for downstream deep - processing orders. Technically, after a rise and then a fall, the focus is on protecting profits [18][19]. Palm Oil - The US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices and helping the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Based on historical patterns and the current policy - economic environment, it is likely that a dual - bull market for stocks and commodities will reappear from 2025 to 2026. Commodities will lead the way first, and the stock market will experience a full - scale upsurge after profit realization. In the context of the "Fed rate - cut cycle" and the "initiation of the restocking cycle", future commodity demand may shift from a structural recovery to a full - scale expansion, driving up the prices of non - ferrous metals, crude oil, and energy - chemical products. The stock market is currently in the early stage of a bull market and is about to transition to a subsequent profit - driven stage. In the second half of 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index is expected to break through 4,000 points and rise at an accelerated pace. If the "anti - involution" reform can effectively address the negative feedback of insufficient domestic demand and over - capacity, Chinese assets may undergo a systematic revaluation comparable to that in 2007 [21]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 2005 - 2007 Double - Bull Market Characteristics - **Stock Market Evolution Path**: In June 2005, the Shanghai Composite Index hit a historical low of 998 points. Then, catalyzed by the split - share structure reform policy, it rebounded to 1,300 points and entered a six - month sideways oscillation period. Starting in 2006, driven by over - heated economy and excessive liquidity, the index started an epic rally, reaching a historical peak of 6,124 points in October 2007, with a cumulative increase of 513.6% [5]. - **Commodity Leading Start**: The commodity market started half a year earlier than the stock market. In the summer of 2006, against the backdrop of accelerated global industrialization (especially high infrastructure and real - estate investment in China) and a weakening US dollar, the prices of industrial products such as copper, zinc, and crude oil entered a bull market first. During the 2004 - 2006 interest - rate hike cycle, the price of copper increased by 144.3%, crude oil by 105.6%, and the precious metal gold by 39.1% [5]. - **Core Driving Logic**: This market was essentially driven by both "fundamentals + liquidity". The split - share structure reform removed institutional constraints, high - speed economic growth boosted corporate profits, and a surge in trade surplus and RMB appreciation expectations led to excessive liquidity, jointly driving up asset prices [8]. Similarities and Differences between the Current Market and the 2005 - 2007 Cycle Similarities - **Policy - Driven Starting Point**: Both bull markets started with major institutional reforms. In 2005, the split - share structure reform solved the problem of non - tradable shares. The current round focuses on the "anti - involution" policy, targeting over - capacity and low - price competition to promote supply - side clearance [12]. - **Sideways Accumulation Phase**: The stock market experienced a long - term oscillation after the initial policy stimulus. In 2005, it traded sideways at 1,300 points for half a year. In the current round, after the policy bottom was established in September 2024, it traded sideways for about eight months until the commodity bull market spread to the cyclical sectors of the stock market in June 2025 [12]. - **Commodities Leading the Stock Market**: Commodities reacted earlier than the stock market. In 2006, the commodity market started half a year earlier than the stock market. Since June 2025, ultra - oversold commodities such as coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate have rebounded significantly, with a much faster increase rate than the stock market [12]. Differences - **Policy Focus Shift**: In 2005, the focus was on demand stimulation (real - estate marketization + export tax rebates). The current round focuses on supply optimization (a unified national market + elimination of backward production capacity), and the covered industries have expanded from traditional steel and coal to emerging fields such as photovoltaics and lithium - ion batteries [13]. - **Economic Structure Transformation**: In 2005, the economy relied on investment and exports. Currently, it needs to rely on manufacturing upgrading and consumption recovery under the downward pressure of the real - estate market [14]. Policy Analysis - **2005 Reform**: The split - share structure reform in 2005 solved the historical problem of non - tradable shares, achieved a fully tradable market, and attracted large - scale entry of foreign and domestic funds, laying a liquidity foundation for the bull market. Meanwhile, "monetization of shantytown renovation" digested real - estate inventory, and infrastructure investment grew at an average annual rate of over 20%, directly boosting the demand for commodities such as steel and non - ferrous metals [17]. - **2024 - 2025 "Anti - Involution"**: The policy core from 2024 to 2025 has shifted to solving "involution - type over - capacity". Its framework has evolved from a concept to a systematic governance approach. The deep - seated logic is to break the vicious cycle of "increasing volume without increasing revenue". In July 2024, the Political Bureau meeting first proposed preventing "involution - type vicious competition", focusing on industry self - discipline. In July 2025, the meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission upgraded it to "legally governing low - price disorderly competition and promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity", targeting local protectionism and the bundling of investment - promotion interests, which has a significant impact on both traditional industries led by steel and cement and emerging industries led by photovoltaics and new - energy vehicles [18]. Commodity - to - Stock Market Conduction Logic - **2006 - 2007**: Commodities started first in 2006. Driven by the resonance of China's accelerated industrialization and the global inventory - replenishment cycle, the supply and demand of metals such as copper and aluminum and crude oil tightened. The price of copper rose from $2,980 to $7,280 (a 144.3% increase), and crude oil rose from $35.76 to $73.52 (a 105.6% increase). The stock market reacted later in 2007. The rise in commodity prices boosted corporate profits, with the profit growth rate of resource - related listed companies exceeding 100%, leading to a rally in cyclical stocks. The average increase of the non - ferrous metals sector was 400 - 500%, and coal stocks rose by more than 300%, and the rally spread to other sectors [19]. - **2025 Market**: The current commodity bull market started in June this year, earlier than the overall start of the stock market, but has significantly spread to relevant A - share sectors. Recently, coking coal, coke, soda ash, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, etc. have led the gains. The price of coking coal has rebounded by more than 50% from the bottom, and the price of polysilicon has broken through 50,000 yuan/ton from around 30,000 yuan/ton. The main driving factors include a reversal of policy expectations, industry losses forcing change, and the release of restocking demand. Since June, the cyclical sectors have responded to the rise in commodity prices first, showing a "commodity - mapped" increase [20]. Investment Recommendations - Build long - term positions in long - cycle scarce commodities such as copper, aluminum, and silver and hold them for the long term. - Build long - term positions in stock - index futures or other stock - related assets and hold them across years for the long term [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - On July 22, 2025, the domestic commodity futures market witnessed a significant event as the main contracts of glass, soda ash, and coking coal reached their daily limit up, attracting extensive market attention. In the short - term, these varieties may maintain their strength [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed with a mid -阳线. The coal market was further stimulated by the "anti - involution" in the coal industry, and the main uptrend of the market continued to move upwards in a volatile manner [7][8]. - Although gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Currently, it has adjusted to an important support level, and it is advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - Iron ore has reached a new high, and the uptrend continues due to an improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and a positive feedback repair in the industrial chain [15][16]. - Glass has seen continuous rallies, with its recent trend driven by news and sentiment. The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hotspot Focus - Glass: Last week, the weekly domestic production increased slightly, inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks, the profit of different production processes is being repaired, the spot sales rate in mainstream areas reached 100% or more, and the average price rose by 10 yuan/ton to 1190 yuan/ton [3]. - Soda ash: The inventory is at a historical high, and the fundamental situation is poor. This increase is mainly driven by glass and short - covering [3]. - Coking coal: Supply is affected by mine accidents and policy regulations. When supply shortages coincide with increased demand from the downstream steel industry, prices tend to rise. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's announcement of a ten - industry stable growth plan has boosted market sentiment and attracted a large amount of capital, driving prices to the daily limit [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The coal "anti - involution" has further stimulated the market, and the main uptrend of the market continues to move upwards in a volatile manner [7]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged, and it is currently at an important support level, suitable for buying on dips [11][12]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, it reached a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The improved macro - environment, increased risk appetite, high molten iron production, and positive feedback repair in the industrial chain support the upward movement [15][16]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The recent trend is driven by news and sentiment, and the continuous rallies indicate a continuation of the uptrend [19][20]. Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price has changed from rising to high - level oscillation. It's too hasty to judge that the price has reached the top just based on a single - day decline. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented and the supply - demand relationship is further improved, the price still has support [4]. - The main - rising wave market of the hydropower project - related sectors continues to oscillate upwards [7]. - The general trend of gold is still bullish. It has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11][12]. - The iron ore futures are in a continued uptrend as the macro - environment improves and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15][16]. - The glass futures are in a continued uptrend, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. - The US new renewable fuel policy may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit the upside [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the recent 16 trading days, and the main contract rose 7.49% on the 17th, hitting a record high. However, it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th [4]. - Technically, the current deviation rate is large, the price is far from the moving average, and the KDJ indicator shows a death cross at a high level, which is usually a signal of a possible price correction [4]. Hydropower Project - Related Sectors - The hydropower project is officially started, and related sectors have risen across the board. The main - rising wave market continues to oscillate upwards [7]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in the gold price. But the general upward trend remains unchanged [12]. - Gold has adjusted to an important support level, and it's advisable to buy on dips [11]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains at a high level with decent steel - mill profits. The industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16]. - Technically, the iron ore futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues [15]. Glass - There is no significant change in the fundamentals. The supply side has not seen a major loss - induced cold - repair situation, the factory inventory is marginally decreasing, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [20]. - Technically, the glass futures hit a new high today, and the uptrend continues. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment [19]. Palm Oil - The US new renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing up the Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it may help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upside [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The polysilicon futures price turned from rising to falling on July 18, but it's too hasty to judge the price has reached the top. If the "anti - involution" policy is effectively implemented, the price still has support, and it should be treated as high - level oscillation [3][4]. - The A - share market is moderately positive with various consumption - stimulating policies, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, but the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. - Iron ore's short - term trend is upward despite today's high - level decline, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. - Glass's fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and its trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. - Methanol's port inventory is accumulating, downstream demand is weak, and it should be short - sold with a light position [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polysilicon Futures - The polysilicon futures price had a cumulative increase of over 50% in the past 16 trading days, with the main contract rising 7.49% on the 17th, reaching a record high of 45,700 yuan/ton. But it fell 0.9% at the mid - day close on the 18th, closing at 43,620 yuan/ton. Technically, there are signs of a possible price correction, but the price may still be supported by policy and supply - demand improvements [4]. A - share Market - A - share's three major indexes opened higher, fell during the session, and then rebounded strongly at the end. With the frequent introduction of consumption - stimulating policies, it is moderately positive for A - shares, and the market is expected to continue to oscillate upwards at a high level [7][8]. Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing gold to adjust. However, the long - term upward trend remains, and it can be bought at low when it reaches an important support level [11][12]. Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - making water output remains high. Although the price rose and then fell today, the upward trend remains unchanged, and a bullish mindset should be maintained [16][17]. Glass - The supply side of glass has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs, the factory inventory has decreased marginally, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking power. The fundamentals haven't changed significantly, and the trend is driven by news and sentiment. The bullish trend continues [19][20]. Methanol - This week, the unloading of foreign vessels was smooth, and the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. The downstream demand remained weak, especially in Jiangsu where the inventory increased significantly. It should be short - sold with a light position [22].