金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/10 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 多晶硅下跌，可以空了吗？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年9月9日多晶硅期货下跌，背后折射出行业复杂现状。从当日交易数据来看，多晶硅主连收盘价 55322元，较前一日下跌2075元，跌幅达3.73% ，最高触及56790元，最低下探至53300元 。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 究其下跌原因，首先是产能过剩与库存高压的双重压力。当前产能冗余率超135%，350万吨产能仅对应 150万吨实际需求，社会库存达44 - 45万吨，8 - 9月预计还新增2万吨，消化周期约3个月。 其次，需求端表现疲软，国内光伏装机连续两个月下滑，7月同比降幅扩大至47.55%，终端电站收益率 持续承压。再者，此前市场因 "反内卷" 政策等情绪向好，但随着时间推移，市场对多晶硅价格上涨预 期逐渐消退，买涨不买跌的情绪使得市场需求进一步下降。 这一下跌不仅反映出多晶硅 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/09 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货上涨分析与市场展望 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年9月8日，玻璃期货连续上涨，收盘价较前一日上涨38元，涨幅达3.26%，收于1204元 。这一价 格变动背后，蕴含着复杂的市场因素。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 玻璃底部支撑重心将有所上移，叠加下半年对于宏观政策端的偏暖预期、 "金九银十"及年底赶工需求 的相对季节性偏好期待。 多头逻辑当前未到证伪窗口，一方面是反通缩、反内卷是大势。反内卷题材再次发酵，玻璃期货市场持 仓量增加，资金关注度提升，大量资金的参与活跃了市场，也为价格带来向上推动力，多方因素共同促 成了9月8日玻璃期货的上涨。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD | 主力动向 | | | | --- | ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Glass Futures Rising Analysis and Market Outlook [2] - Report Date: September 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: Glass Futures Analysis Core View - On September 5, 2025, glass futures rose significantly, with the closing price up 56 yuan from the previous day, a 4.94% increase to 1189 yuan. Multiple factors contributed to this increase, and it is recommended to buy on dips [3]. Supply - Side Factors - Although the overall glass production capacity and output were relatively stable, recent cold repairs of some production lines reduced the market supply expectation, providing a basis for price increases [3]. Demand - Side Factors - Demand from urban renewal, old - community renovation, interior decoration, the automotive industry, home appliances, glass exports, tourism and commercial construction, the photovoltaic industry, and e - commerce logistics packaging increased, offsetting the decline in demand from the new commercial housing completion stage [3]. Market Sentiment Factors - The anti - involution theme fermented again, increasing the trading volume of the glass futures market and attracting more funds, which also pushed up the price [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - The State Council issued a policy on sports consumption with a total scale of over 7 trillion yuan. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward in the short term [6]. Gold Futures - The US July PCE price data met expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and there is a short - term upward trend [11]. Iron Ore Futures - Technically, it is still in a high - level wide - range shock range. The iron - water output is high, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products remains. Be wary of negative feedback due to eroded steel mill profits [14][15]. Glass Futures - Technically, it rebounded significantly. The daily melting volume is stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream deep - processing orders have not fully recovered. Pay attention to the restocking situation approaching the peak season [18][19]. Palm Oil Futures - The oil market has risen a lot recently. With increased inventory pressure and lack of demand, the motivation to chase the rise has decreased, and the profit - taking pressure has increased. Treat it with a bearish bias [21]. Pulp Futures - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable, and port inventories began to decline slightly, boosting the futures price. There is an expected boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet. Maintain a view of low - level shocks and recommend waiting and seeing [25].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Report's Core View - The pulp futures have stopped falling, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see. The pulp price is supported by the peak - season expectation and enterprises' active shutdown for price hikes, and the view of oscillation is maintained [2][4][7] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Hot - Spot Focus - The spot price of Shandong softwood pulp remained stable today, and the port inventory started to decline slightly but was still higher than the same period last year. At the beginning of September, the paper products industry saw a price - adjustment wave, with many product companies implementing a dual strategy of price hikes and shutdowns. The peak - season expectation supported the product prices [2][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remained loose, and Brazil's pulp exports in August increased by 35% year - on - year. On the domestic demand side, there were minor fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset paper and household paper increased year - on - year, while that of white cardboard and coated paper decreased. The improvement of raw paper orders was limited, dragging down the pulp market [4] Technical Analysis - The pulp price in Shandong area was stable today, the market showed signs of stopping falling, but the upward drive was limited, and the trading sentiment was light. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [7] Main Force Trends - The short - selling main force of pulp reduced positions, which was bullish [9]

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD BZ&EB 纯苯本周开工率高位，整体港口库存偏高，后续可能累库。下游综合开工率下滑，整体利润仍然较差。短期看纯苯需求有一定支撑， BZN价差走弱。苯乙烯本周无新增装置检修，但预计月底有装置检修供应收缩，关注检修兑现情况。苯乙烯下游综合开工率下降， 终端提货情况偏弱，三S整体库存仍然较高，当前已进入消费旺季，需求可能有所好转，关注后续表现，苯乙烯在9月检修量较高， 预计价格在有底部支撑情况下震荡运行。 品种 周度观点 原油 近期国际能源署（IEA）发布能源展望报告，在OPEC+产油国扩增产量叠加需求增长缓慢的背景下，预计明年全球原油市场将面临 创纪录供应过剩局面。地缘政治上俄乌停战前景尚不明朗，随着能源需求旺季临近结束，原油价格仍是在弱趋势中调整，关注本周 日OPEC+ 会议看是否会在10月份暂停增产。 PX&PTA PX负荷波动不大，库存依旧处于低位但由去库转为累库，紧平衡格局松动，PX加工费支撑 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report suggests a sideways to bearish outlook for coking coal and palm oil futures [3][21]. - For pulp, it maintains a view of low - level sideways movement and recommends waiting and watching [25]. 2. Core Views - The continuous decline of coking coal futures for five consecutive days, along with the weakening of black - series futures such as coke and iron ore, is due to multiple factors including supply, demand, policy, and cost [3]. - In the stock market, with the issuance of the action plan for stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry and foreign giants being optimistic about the A - share market, the short - term A - share market is expected to continue high - level sideways adjustment [6]. - For gold, the US July PCE price data meets expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is bullish for gold, and it shows signs of breaking through the platform in the short term [11]. - Iron ore futures continue to rebound today with obvious high - level wide - range fluctuations recently, and there is a need to be vigilant against the negative feedback caused by the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15]. - Glass futures show a small rebound today with obvious wide - range fluctuations recently, and attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Futures - Supply: The intensity of safety inspections in major production areas has been marginally relaxed, previously shut - down and overhauled coal mines have gradually resumed production, with a weekly output increase of about 4%. The arrival of imported coking coal at ports has been sufficient, and the arrival volume of Russian coal increased in mid - to - late August, increasing the overall supply pressure [3]. - Demand: Downstream coking plants, affected by the slowdown in steel mill purchases, have reduced their enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal stocks, choosing to consume existing inventories. Some coking enterprises have even lowered their operating rates, and coking coal purchases have continued to shrink. Steel mill profits have limited recovery, pig iron production remains at a medium - to - low level, and the rigid demand for coke is insufficient, further suppressing coking coal demand [3]. - Inventory and Policy: Port inventories have increased by 140% year - on - year and are at a high level. If demand cannot be effectively increased, inventory pressure will cause coking coal prices to decline. The pre - September 3 military parade production - restriction expectations have not reached the previous intensity, and the subsequent relaxation of over - production verification policies may lead to further release of coal mine production and increase market supply [3]. A - Share Market - News: Two departments have issued the "Action Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026", and foreign giants are optimistic about the A - share market outlook [6]. - Market Performance: The three major A - share indexes opened and then fluctuated lower, with a continuous decline during the session. Financial stocks rose against the trend at the end of the session, and the market finally closed with a medium - sized negative line [7]. - Outlook: The short - term market is expected to continue high - level sideways adjustment [6]. Gold - News: The US July PCE price data meets expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is bullish for gold [11]. - Technical Analysis: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there are signs of breaking through the platform in the short term [11]. Iron Ore - Technical Analysis: It continued to rebound today, with obvious high - level wide - range fluctuations recently. Attention should be paid to the support below [14]. - Market Situation: Pig iron production remains at a high level, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products has not changed. There is a need to be vigilant against the negative feedback caused by the erosion of steel mill profits [15]. Glass - Technical Analysis: It showed a small rebound today, with obvious wide - range fluctuations recently [18]. - Market Situation: Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and the recovery of downstream deep - processing orders is not yet sufficient. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [19]. Palm Oil - Market Situation: The recent cumulative increase in the oil and fat market is relatively large. With the overall increase in inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to continue chasing up has decreased, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased [21]. Pulp - Market Situation: The pulp price in Shandong region remained stable today, and port inventories began to decline slightly, boosting the futures price. There are expectations of a boost before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, but no improvement has been seen yet [25]. - Outlook: It is expected to maintain low - level sideways movement, and waiting and watching is recommended [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The pulp price is currently weak due to delivery pressure and a fundamental pattern of weak supply and demand. However, with the pulp price falling to a low level, there are rumors that some enterprises are preparing to take delivery, which may relieve the warehouse receipt pressure. As the port inventory decreases week - on - week and the seasonal peak demand season approaches, paper mills have a strong willingness to support prices, so the pulp price may rebound. The report maintains a view of range - bound trading [3]. - The pulp price in Shandong is stable today, the market shows signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, the trading sentiment is light, and it is expected to remain in a low - level range - bound trading before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The short - selling main force has reduced positions, which is bullish [8]. Summary by Related Content Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, the supply of hardwood pulp remains loose, but Brazil has a slight production cut and raised the quotation, basically indicating the confirmation of a phased bottom. The risk of tariffs increases the possibility of production cuts by overseas softwood pulp mills, and the pattern of tight softwood and loose hardwood continues to diverge [3]. - On the demand side, there is an expectation of a recovery, but the spot market has not shown signs of improvement. The "peak season is not prosperous", with basically small fluctuations. Among the four major paper types, the production of offset printing paper and tissue paper increased year - on - year, while the production of white cardboard and coated paper decreased year - on - year. The improvement of raw paper orders is limited, dragging down the pulp market trend [3]. Price and Market Trend - The spot price of softwood pulp in Shandong today continues to remain stable, and the port inventory starts to decline slightly, but it is still higher than the same period last year [3]. - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, the market has signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, and the trading sentiment is light [5]. Market Sentiment and Suggestion - The short - selling main force has reduced positions, which is bullish for the pulp market [8]. - It is expected that the pulp market will remain in a low - level range - bound trading before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, and it is recommended to wait and see [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report suggests treating the coking coal and palm oil markets with a cautious and somewhat bearish outlook, indicated as "oscillating with a downward bias" [3][22] 2. Core Views - The decline in coking coal futures prices is due to multiple factors including supply - demand imbalances, policy, and cost. The supply has increased while demand is weak, and inventory and policy factors also contribute to the downward pressure [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level oscillating adjustments in the short term [6] - Gold has a chance to break through the platform in the short term as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased [10][11] - Iron ore shows a slight rebound today with obvious high - level wide - range oscillations recently, and there is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] - Glass futures had a rally followed by a decline today. Attention should be paid to the support level and the replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] - The pulp price in Shandong is stable, and the market is expected to remain in low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [26] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - Coking Coal - Supply: The safety inspection in major production areas has been relaxed, and coal mines that were shut down for maintenance have resumed production, with weekly output increasing by about 4%. The arrival of Russian coal at ports in mid - to late August has further increased supply [3] - Demand: Downstream coking plants have reduced their enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal due to the slowdown in steel mill purchases. Steel mill profits have limited recovery, and iron and steel production is at a medium - low level, suppressing coking coal demand [3] - Inventory and Policy: Port inventory has increased by 140% year - on - year. If demand does not improve, inventory pressure will push prices down. The pre - September 3rd military parade production limit expectations are not as strong as before, and possible relaxation of over - production verification policies may increase supply [3] Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - The three major A - share indexes opened high and closed low today, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly falling below 3800 points. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillating adjustments in the short term [6] Technical Analysis - Gold - The US July PCE price data met expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there are signs of breaking through the platform in the short term [10][11] Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - Technically, there was a slight rebound today, with obvious high - level wide - range oscillations recently. Attention should be paid to the support level below. There is a risk of negative feedback due to the erosion of steel mill profits [14][15] Technical Analysis - Glass - Technically, it rallied and then declined today. Attention should be paid to the support level below. Daily melting is basically stable, factory inventories continue to accumulate, and downstream deep - processing orders have limited improvement. Attention should be paid to the replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] Technical Analysis - Palm Oil - The oil market has had a large cumulative increase recently. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the market's motivation to chase up has declined, and the pressure for profit - taking has increased. It is recommended to take a somewhat bearish view [22] Technical Analysis - Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong remained stable today. The market shows signs of stopping the decline, but the upward driving force is limited, and trading sentiment is light. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season, and it is advisable to wait and see [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for coking coal and palm oil is bearish with oscillations [3][22] - The investment suggestion for pulp is to hold off and observe [25] 2. Core Views of the Report - The decline in coking coal futures prices is due to multiple factors including supply, demand, inventory, and policy. The market should be treated with a bearish outlook [3] - The A - share margin trading balance has reached a record high, and the market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term [6] - The probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is favorable for gold. Gold shows signs of breaking through the platform in the short term [11] - Iron ore prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Attention should be paid to the support level below, and the risk of negative feedback due to eroded steel mill profits should be watched [14][15] - Glass prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Attention should be paid to the support level below and the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] - The upward momentum in the palm oil market has declined, and the market should be treated with a bearish outlook [22] - The pulp market shows signs of stopping the decline, but the upward drive is limited. It is expected to remain in low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [25] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal Futures - Supply: The safety inspection in major production areas has been relaxed, coal mines have resumed production, and the weekly output has increased by about 4%. The arrival of Russian coal at ports in mid - to late August has increased supply pressure [3] - Demand: Downstream coking plants have reduced their enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal due to slow steel mill procurement. Steel mill profits have limited recovery, and iron - water production is at a medium - low level, suppressing coking coal demand [3] - Inventory and Policy: Port inventory has increased by 140% year - on - year. If demand does not improve, inventory pressure will drive prices down. Looser production - limit expectations before the September 3 parade and potential relaxation of over - production verification policies may increase supply [3] 3.2 A - share Market - The A - share margin trading balance has reached 2.3 trillion yuan, breaking the historical record. Central Huijin's large - scale purchase of ETFs has reached a record 1.28 trillion yuan. The market is expected to continue high - level oscillations in the short term [6] 3.3 Gold - The US July PCE price data met expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. Gold has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly chart and shows short - term upward signs [11] 3.4 Iron Ore - Technically, iron ore prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Attention should be paid to the support level below. The pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products persists, and the risk of negative feedback due to eroded steel mill profits should be watched [14][15] 3.5 Glass - Technically, glass prices are in a narrow - range consolidation. Attention should be paid to the support level below. Daily melting is stable, factory inventories are accumulating, and downstream deep - processing orders have limited improvement. Attention should be paid to inventory replenishment approaching the peak season [18][19] 3.6 Palm Oil - The recent cumulative increase in the oil market is large. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the upward momentum has declined, and the market should be treated with a bearish outlook [22] 3.7 Pulp - The pulp price in Shandong has increased, and the market shows signs of stopping the decline. However, the upward drive is limited, trading sentiment is weak, and it is expected to remain in low - level oscillations before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report suggests a volatile and bearish outlook for coking coal and palm oil futures [4][21] Core Viewpoints - On September 1st, the coking coal futures market saw significant declines in the main contract, with a drop of over 5%, and other black - series futures also weakened. This was due to multiple factors including supply, demand, policy, and cost [3] - The A - share market is expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term [7] - Gold shows signs of breaking through the platform in the short term due to favorable factors [11][12] - Iron ore prices are under pressure as the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products persists, and there is a risk of negative feedback [14][15] - Glass prices are tested as the factory inventory accumulates and downstream demand is insufficient [18][19] - Palm oil market has a reduced motivation for further price increases and higher profit - taking pressure [21] - Pulp prices are expected to remain in low - level volatility before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [25] Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal Futures - Supply: The safety inspection in the main production areas has been relaxed, coal mines have resumed production, and the weekly output has increased by about 4%. The arrival of imported coking coal at ports has also increased supply pressure [3] - Demand: Downstream coking plants have reduced their enthusiasm for replenishing coking coal due to slow steel mill procurement. Steel mill profits have limited recovery, and iron - water production is at a medium - low level, suppressing coking coal demand [3] - Inventory and Policy: Port inventory has increased by 140% year - on - year. The pre - 9.3 military parade production limit expectation is lower than before, and potential relaxation of over - production verification policies may increase supply [4] A - share Market - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened higher, then fell, and finally rebounded. The Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index closed slightly up. The market is expected to continue high - level volatility in the short term [7] Gold - The US July PCE price data met expectations, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is favorable for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there are signs of upward movement in the short term [11][12] Iron Ore - Technically, the price dropped significantly, testing the lower support. The iron - water production is still high, but the pattern of strong raw materials and weak finished products persists, and there is a risk of negative feedback [14][15] Glass - Technically, the price dropped significantly, testing the lower support. The daily melting volume is stable, the factory inventory is accumulating, and downstream deep - processing orders are not strong enough. Attention should be paid to the inventory replenishment situation approaching the peak season [18][19] Palm Oil - The oil market has seen large cumulative increases recently. With rising inventory pressure and lack of demand support, the motivation for further price increases has decreased, and profit - taking pressure has increased [21] Pulp - Inventory is a major constraint, downstream demand has not improved, and procurement is average. The price of coniferous pulp in Shandong has been lowered, and it is expected to remain in low - level volatility before the Mid - Autumn Festival peak season [25]