金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/06 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 今日焦煤2601期货大涨继续昨日的大涨，一度涨停板，引发市场高度关注。此次大涨并非偶然，而是由多 因素共同作用。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，部分产地煤矿因井下事故、安全检查及环保稽查等影响产量。如山西吕梁等地部分煤矿复 产缓慢，蒙煤进口受口岸闭关影响，供应收紧。需求层面，钢铁行业盈利佳，钢厂综合盈利率近60%，铁 水日均产量高位，对焦煤需求形成有力支撑，焦化企业和钢厂补库需求进一步推高价格。 政策上，新版《矿产资源法》施行，工信部反内卷工作方案预期，以及行业协会对焦炭价格的上调，也带 动了焦煤价格。 展望后续，若煤矿超产核查严格执行，供应端收缩预期延续，需求端维持现状，焦煤2601价格有望保持强 势。不过，若蒙煤进口大幅增加，或钢厂铁水产量见顶回落，其上涨也将承压。投资者需紧密关注基本面 和政策动态 ，震荡偏多对待。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The sharp rise of coking coal 2601 futures today is due to multiple factors. If the strict implementation of over - production verification in coal mines continues to shrink supply and demand remains stable, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or steel mill hot metal production peaks and declines, the price increase will face pressure. Investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics and treat it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, it will mainly show high - level fluctuations [7]. - The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will show small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. - In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. - In the short - term, domestic and foreign orders for glass are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to underground accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. For example, the resumption of production in some coal mines in Lvliang, Shanxi is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures, leading to tightened supply [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with the comprehensive profitability rate of steel mills close to 60%, and the daily average hot metal output is at a high level, which strongly supports the demand for coking coal. The replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up the price [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new version of the Mineral Resources Law, the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations also drive up the price of coking coal [4]. A - shares - Policy impact: Starting from August 8th, the taxation of interest income from treasury bonds and other securities is overall positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is high - level fluctuations [7]. Gold - Economic data impact: The significantly lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data, especially the large downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it shows small - scale fluctuations in the short - term [11]. Iron Ore - Market situation: In the context of stable demand and falling port inventories, the iron ore futures price rose slightly on Monday. However, the expected increase in supply restricts the upward trend, and the overall market shows a pattern of more - biased supply - demand game [15][16]. Glass - Short - term situation: Domestic and foreign orders are average, and the operating rate of downstream component enterprises remains low. With the slowdown of stocking, local transactions are weakening. Overall, local supply and demand have slightly improved, and the price shows an upward trend, but the increase should be treated with a bias towards more in a volatile market [19][20]. Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative factors: Weak Malaysian palm oil exports may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].

Report Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current correction of silver prices is a technical adjustment in the bull market, caused by temporary factors such as the Fed's hawkish stance, short - term strong US economic data, and domestic policies falling short of expectations. The core logic supporting the long - term strength of silver has been further strengthened during the adjustment. The report maintains the view that domestic silver will break through the 10,000 yuan/kg mark within the third quarter, and the Shanghai silver main contract below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors should take advantage of the current correction to build long positions [17][18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Reasons for Silver Price Correction - The Fed's hawkish stance: In the July FOMC meeting, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and Fed Chair Powell's remarks were more hawkish than expected, causing the US dollar index to rise for seven consecutive trading days to 100.09 on August 1st, hitting a new high since the end of May. The stronger US dollar increased the holding cost of silver, pressuring international and domestic silver prices [4] - Short - term strong US economic data: The US GDP annualized growth rate in Q2 reached 3%, significantly exceeding market expectations. The PCE price index in June rose to 2.6% year - on - year, compressing the space for monetary policy shift and pushing up real interest rates, which suppressed the performance of silver [5] - Domestic policy meetings falling short of expectations: The stimulus signals released by the July Politburo economic work meeting did not meet market optimism, leading to a general correction in the domestic commodity market, and silver prices were also pressured. After the meeting, the main contract of Shanghai silver reduced positions and declined, indicating short - term departure of long - position funds [6] Factors Supporting Long - Term Silver Strength - Supply - demand structure tightening: The global silver market is expected to face a supply shortage for the seventh consecutive year in 2025, with a cumulative shortage of 800 million ounces from 2021 - 2025. Mine production has been declining, and industrial demand for silver is growing. Exchange silver inventories have decreased by 18% since the beginning of the year, reaching the lowest level since 2014 [8] - Re - evaluation of financial attributes and hedging value: In the first half of 2025, global silver ETP had a net inflow of 95 million ounces, and retail investment in silver coins and bars in Asia and North America was booming. India's purchases of physical silver and silver ETFs hit record highs. In the context of geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, silver has a unique "dual - wheel drive" pattern [10] - Favorable macro - environment: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is over 70%, and it is almost certain to cut rates before the end of October. Global major economies' fiscal policies are still in a loose cycle, and post - pandemic excess liquidity will gradually flow into silver [11] - Sufficient momentum for the convergence of gold - silver ratio: The current gold - silver ratio is around 86, still significantly higher than the historical average of 50 - 60. If gold prices remain stable, silver needs to rise to $42 per ounce (about 10,500 yuan/kg in China) for the gold - silver ratio to return to a reasonable level, with a potential upside of over 20% [13] Technical Analysis and Investment Strategy - Technical adjustment: The current correction of silver is a healthy adjustment in the bull market. The main contract of Shanghai silver has strong support in the range of 8,800 - 8,900 yuan, and the price stabilized after a decline on August 1st, indicating that the short - term adjustment is almost over [15] - Investment strategy: The main contract of Shanghai silver below 9,000 yuan provides a safety margin. Investors can adopt the "buy on dips and build positions step - by - step" strategy to establish long positions. Silver is expected to resume its upward trend in August, and investors should seize the current buying opportunity [17][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term trend of the alumina futures market may fluctuate sharply due to market sentiment, but in the long - term, the price is likely to decline under pressure due to the strong expectation of supply surplus [3][4] - The short - term trend of A - share indices is mainly high - level oscillation [7] - The long - term direction of gold is still optimistic, currently in a short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] - For iron ore, with the improvement of the macro - environment, it is in a positive feedback repair state, but recent fluctuations are large, so cautious operation is needed [15][16] - The fundamentals of glass have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, with cautious operation required [20] - The new US renewable fuel policy may boost the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning, but weak exports may limit the upward momentum [23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - The sharp rise was driven by policy expectations and market sentiment. On July 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned a plan to stabilize growth in the non - ferrous industry, leading to a large influx of long - position funds. The price climbed until it hit a resistance at the 3500 yuan/ton mark [3] - The subsequent decline was due to cooling market sentiment and fundamental factors. The sharp drop in the coking coal variety last Friday night led to a callback in leading varieties, and the alumina market has an overall loose supply - demand situation, with an expanding supply surplus trend and a decline in net export data in June [3] A - share Indices - The three major A - share indices opened lower and rose in the morning, then continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, and finally closed with a low - level doji. The National Healthcare Security Administration has formulated a "new drug listing initial price mechanism", and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a notice on the 2025 polysilicon industry special energy - saving supervision task list [7] Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of rate cuts this year, causing an adjustment in the gold price. However, the long - term outlook remains positive, and the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, with short - term small - range oscillation at the bottom of the platform [11][12] Iron Ore - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, resulting in high pig iron output. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it had a narrow - range consolidation today, with large recent fluctuations, so cautious operation is required [15][16] Glass - The supply side has not seen a significant cold - repair situation due to losses. Factory inventories are marginally decreasing, and the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, it oscillated and declined today, and cautious operation is needed [20] Palm Oil - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up the Chicago soybean oil price to a contract high, and the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures will help the performance of the Malaysian crude palm oil futures in the morning. However, weak exports in Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ plans to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for another 548,000 barrels per day increase in September, which may lead to an oversupply and downward pressure on oil prices. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the potential secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. - PX is in a tight - balance situation with low inventory and high operating rates. With only one potential new device planned at the end of 2025 and high uncertainty, PXN has support due to new PTA device demand [4]. - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production, and multiple devices are under maintenance. The short - term polyester load is strong, but in the long run, there is an oversupply, and prices are expected to fluctuate with the cost [4]. - Rising coal prices support the cost of ethylene glycol. Port inventory is decreasing, and the supply - demand is tight. However, there is an expected increase in imports in August, and short - term prices are expected to be strong [4]. - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and the industry is in an oversupply situation. The demand for textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day this month, and there are expectations for the same increase in September, which may lead to oversupply and downward price pressure. The US tariff agreements may improve market risk appetite, but the claim of secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian oil could cause price fluctuations [4]. PX - Current PX inventory is low, and the operating rate is high, maintaining a tight - balance situation. In 2025, only one 3 - million - ton device of Yulong Petrochemical is expected to be put into operation at the end of the year, with a capacity growth rate of about 5%. The domestic PX output in the first half of 2025 was 18.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7%. The annual supply in 2025 is expected to be about 47.8 billion tons, with a growth rate of about 3%. The domestic weekly average PX capacity utilization rate is 82.35%, down 0.56% week - on - week, and the Asian weekly average is 71.98%, down 0.03% week - on - week. The PX - naphtha spread is around $265 per ton. The downstream PTA is still in an expansion cycle, and the supply - demand gap supports PX prices [4][8]. PTA - A 3.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China has one line put into production recently, and multiple devices are under concentrated maintenance. The downstream polyester is in the off - season, and the processing fee is 204 yuan per ton, remaining flat compared to last week and at a low point this year. With new device production, the oversupply situation will intensify, and the processing fee may be compressed. The weekly average PTA capacity utilization rate is 79.67%, down 1.09% week - on - week. The spot market price is 4,750 yuan per ton, and the mainstream spot basis is 09, - 13 [4][14]. MEG - The market price of ethylene glycol this week is 4,485 yuan per ton, down 2.05% week - on - week. The total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 60.67%, up 1.47% week - on - week, and the coal - based capacity utilization rate is 63.87%, up 3.88% week - on - week. The gross profit has risen to 103.33 yuan per ton, up 15.42 yuan per ton week - on - week. The inventory in East China ports is 427,200 tons, down 47,800 tons week - on - week, at a historical low. Due to the delay of imported goods caused by typhoons, imports are expected to increase. Affected by coal prices, the overall price is expected to be strong [19]. Polyester Industry - The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the Chinese polyester industry is 85.82%, down 0.60% week - on - week. Downstream demand is weak, and there is inventory accumulation due to high - level operation. The effectiveness of potential production cuts needs further observation. The demand for long - and short - fiber textile raw materials is expected to recover in mid - to late August [26].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/01 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝期货大涨转下跌，后续走势解析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 近期，氧化铝期货市场走势跌宕起伏，先是大幅上涨，后又迅速下跌，引发了市场参与者的广泛关注。那 么，这背后的原因是什么？后续又该如何看待呢？ 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从上涨原因来看，主要是政策预期和市场情绪的推动。7月19日工信部提到即将推出有色行业稳增长方案， 鉴于之前"反内卷"政策对多晶硅、焦煤等品种的影响，多头资金大量涌入氧化铝市场 ，推动价格持续攀 升，直至突破3500元/吨整数关口才遇阻。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD | 主力动向 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | GOLDTRUST | FUTURES | CO.，LTD | | 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售， ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Report" - Date: July 31, 2025 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The subsequent trend of soda ash futures is likely to be broadly volatile, with prices expected to fluctuate around the cost range in the medium to long term due to high supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels [3]. - The short - term trend of the A - share market is expected to be volatile at high levels [6]. - Gold is expected to resume its upward trend and move upwards in a volatile manner, despite recent adjustments [10][11]. - For iron ore, due to the improved macro - environment and high iron - water production, the industry is in a positive feedback repair state, but caution is needed due to large recent fluctuations [14][15]. - The glass market's fundamentals have not changed significantly, and its recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Caution is advised and waiting for stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - The Malaysian crude palm oil futures may benefit from the strong performance of Chicago soybean oil and Dalian edible oil futures, but weak exports may limit its upward momentum [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the soda ash industry added 2.4 million tons of new production capacity, and about 2.8 million tons are expected to be added in the second half. Despite a decline in production during the high - temperature maintenance season in July, overall supply remains high [3]. - Demand: Photovoltaic glass is in continuous loss, the daily melting volume in production is expected to continue to decline, the rigid demand for soda ash is weakening, and there is an excess in the heavy - soda balance [3]. - Inventory: Manufacturer inventories are at a historical high. Although there has been a slight decline, the overall pressure remains large [3]. A - Share Market - Market Performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose and then fell, reaching a maximum of 3636 points, while other indices opened lower and continued to decline in a volatile manner [6]. - News: Sino - US will promote the scheduled extension of the US reciprocal tariffs, and Xi Jinping chaired and delivered an important speech on the current economic situation and the economic work in the second half of the year [6]. Gold - Market Factors: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, leading to an adjustment in gold prices. However, the long - term outlook remains positive [11]. - Technical Analysis: The weekly - line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and there is a high probability of a resumption of the upward trend [10]. Iron Ore - Macro - environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and iron - water production remains high due to decent steel - mill profits. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [15]. - Technical Analysis: The price rose and then fell today, with large recent fluctuations. Caution is needed, and it is advisable to protect profits and wait for a stabilization opportunity [14]. Glass - Supply: There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to major losses on the supply side, and factory inventories are gradually decreasing [20]. - Demand: The replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Technical Analysis: The price rose and then fell today. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Caution is advised, and waiting for stabilization is recommended [19]. Palm Oil - Positive Factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. The strong performance of Dalian edible oil futures will also help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [23]. - Negative Factors: Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit the upward momentum of the market [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass futures showed a V-shaped trend today. The market has significant differences in the future direction of glass futures. In the short term, it is likely to maintain a wide - range oscillatory and bullish pattern. Investors need to closely monitor changes in supply - demand relationships, policy trends, and capital flows [3][4] - A-share market: After the three major A-share indices opened lower today, they declined and then closed with a small positive line. With the implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, the market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] - Gold: Although the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has led to an adjustment in gold, the long - term outlook remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] - Iron ore: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15][16] - Palm oil: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass Futures - Market performance: Glass futures showed a V - shaped trend today. The morning session declined due to market sentiment and fundamental factors, and rebounded in the afternoon [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, the daily melting volume of glass is at a relatively high level, and supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the real - estate market is still sluggish, and downstream demand for glass has not improved significantly. Although there is some speculative demand, it is difficult to form effective support [3] - Outlook: If there are favorable policies for the real - estate market or measures for glass industry capacity regulation, it may change the current supply - demand expectations and push up glass futures prices. If demand remains weak and the high - inventory problem cannot be solved, the upward space of glass futures will be limited, or it may continue to decline [4] - Technical analysis: The supply side has not experienced significant losses and cold repairs. Factory inventories are gradually decreasing, but the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong. Fundamentals have not changed significantly. Recently, the trend is more driven by news and sentiment. Today, it was consolidating at a low level, and investors should operate cautiously and wait for stabilization [20][21] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Market performance: The three major A - share indices opened lower today, declined, and then closed with a small positive line [8] - News influence: The implementation of the national child - rearing subsidy system, with an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per person, stimulates consumption. The market is expected to continue to oscillate upward [7][8] 3.3 Gold - Market influence: The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates has reduced the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year, leading to an adjustment in gold [12] - Technical analysis: The long - term outlook for gold remains positive. Currently, the weekly line adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is likely to restart its upward trend, showing an oscillatory upward tendency [11][12] 3.4 Iron Ore - Market environment: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and the iron - water output remains high. The industry chain is in a positive feedback repair state [16] - Technical analysis: It rebounded slightly today. Investors should operate cautiously, protect profits, and wait for stabilization [15] 3.5 Palm Oil - Positive factors: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving up Chicago soybean oil prices. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [24] - Negative factors: Weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum of the market [24]

Group 1: Overall Core View - The report analyzes the market trends of multiple futures, including coking coal, stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and palm oil [3][7][11] Group 2: Coking Coal Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 25, affected by policy expectations and production checks, some coking coal futures contracts had a "five - consecutive - board" increase, with prices soaring from 709 yuan/ton in early June to 1259 yuan/ton, a cumulative increase of 77.57%. However, that night, the Dalian Commodity Exchange issued position - limit measures, leading to a more than 10% plunge in the main contract [3] - **Fundamentals**: Previously, production in Shanxi and other places was affected by environmental protection and safety supervision, causing supply shortages. The rising futures prices also drove spot replenishment and hoarding. But regulatory measures such as limiting open positions and increasing handling fees were introduced to cool down the speculation [3] - **Future Trend**: In the short term, the market sentiment is unstable, and there may be a rebound if more funds enter. In the medium - to - long term, the regulatory attitude to curb excessive speculation is clear. Coal production capacity has room for release, imports from Mongolia and Russia have increased by 25%, and port coal stocks are high. Meanwhile, demand is weak, with construction steel usage shrinking by over 10% and steel mills having low acceptance of high coking coal prices. So, the price is likely to return to fundamental - driven and maintain a wide - range, slightly bullish oscillation [4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The A - share market opened lower and then rebounded on Monday, closing with a small positive line. The mid - year work conference aims to consolidate the stable and positive trend of the capital market. It is expected that the market will continue to oscillate at a high level [8][9] Group 4: Gold Futures - After the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduction of the annual interest - rate cut expectation, gold prices adjusted. But the overall long - term trend remains positive. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is likely to resume an upward trend, showing an oscillating upward pattern [12][13] Group 5: Iron Ore Futures - The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, and steel mills' profits are acceptable, so iron - water production remains high, and the industrial chain is in a positive feedback repair state. Technically, the daily - line has been declining, so cautious operation is needed to protect profits [17] Group 6: Glass Futures - The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are gradually decreasing, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and recent trends are more driven by news and sentiment. Technically, the price limit was hit today, so cautious operation and waiting for stabilization are recommended [21][22] Group 7: Palm Oil Futures - The new US renewable fuel policy increases the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, driving Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. Coupled with the strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures, it will help the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures. However, weak exports from Malaysia may limit the upward momentum [25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 25, 2025, coking coal hit the daily limit four times, and on the reporting day, it hit the daily limit again with a 7.98% increase, closing at 1,259 yuan, becoming the focus of the futures market [3]. - The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed lower, with an overall volatile adjustment and a small negative - line close. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7][8]. - Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, but the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly line and is likely to resume its upward trend [11][12]. - Iron ore has declined continuously at the daily - line level, but the overall black industry is still on an upward trend, and the focus is on protecting profits [15]. - The glass market has no significant change in fundamentals. The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, and the upward trend of the bulls continues [19][20]. - The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, which is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures, but weak exports may limit its upward momentum [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Coking Coal - **Price Performance**: On July 25, 2025, coking coal hit the daily limit four times, and on the reporting day, it hit the daily limit again with a 7.98% increase, closing at 1,259 yuan [3]. - **Supply - side Factors**: The National Energy Administration issued a verification notice on coal mine over - production on July 22, which affected the market's supply expectation. In addition, safety inspections were strengthened after mine accidents in Shanxi in late May and early June, and recent heavy rainfall in major production areas restricted production and transportation. Mongolian coal imports also decreased, widening the supply gap [3]. - **Demand - side Factors**: Steel mills' profits are considerable, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong demand for coking coal. Coking enterprises have initiated a second price increase, which is likely to be implemented, and downstream procurement is active, supporting the price [3]. - **Risk**: The actual implementation of the production - capacity verification policy needs to be monitored. If the supply - side pressure does not tighten as expected, the coking coal price may adjust [4]. A - share Market - **Market Performance**: The A - share market's three major indices opened higher and closed lower, with an overall volatile adjustment and a small negative - line close [8]. - **Policy**: Relevant ministries and commissions are taking actions to prevent "involution - style" vicious competition [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Gold - **Price Movement**: Gold has adjusted due to the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates and the reduced expectation of an interest - rate cut this year, but the long - term upward trend remains. It has adjusted sufficiently on the weekly line and is likely to resume its upward trend [11][12]. Iron Ore - **Market Environment**: The macro - environment has improved, risk appetite has increased, steel mills' profits are acceptable, and the molten iron output remains high. The industrial chain is in a positive - feedback repair state [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Iron ore has declined continuously at the daily - line level, but the overall black industry is still on an upward trend, and the focus is on protecting profits [15]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: There is no significant loss - induced cold repair in the supply side, the factory inventory is gradually decreasing, but the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and there is no significant change in the fundamentals [20]. - **Trend**: The recent trend is more driven by news and sentiment, and the upward trend of the bulls continues [19]. Palm Oil - **Positive Factors**: The new US renewable fuel policy has increased the use of soybean oil in biodiesel production, pushing Chicago soybean oil to a contract high. The strong rise of Dalian edible oil futures is beneficial for the early - morning performance of Malaysian crude palm oil futures [22]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak exports of Malaysian palm oil may limit its upward momentum [22].