Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report believes that silver has entered a strong upward channel in price, and it is expected to break through 10,000 yuan/kg in Q3 2025. Despite short - term technical corrections due to factors like the Fed's hawkish stance and high inventory pressure, the rigid supply - demand gap and the momentum for gold - silver ratio repair remain unchanged. Investors are advised to build long positions in batches on dips to await the dual catalysts of macro - impacts and supply - demand gaps in the second half of the year [2][3][25]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Environment - The global monetary easing cycle continues. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, with a more than 50% probability in July and a 52% probability in September. The actual interest rate is on a downward trend, which will significantly reduce the opportunity cost of holding silver. China has released liquidity through MLF and reserve requirement ratio cuts, and the ECB has cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June, with further cuts likely. Historically, silver has usually outperformed gold during interest - rate decline periods [3][4][5]. - Geopolitical risks are escalating. In the Middle East, the US military's air - strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities and the threat of a larger - scale attack, along with the discussion of closing the Hormuz Strait by Iran, will push up inflation and risk - aversion premiums. The continuation of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the intensification of global trade frictions have increased the VIX panic index by 15% compared to 2023, leading to a shift of funds from risky assets to precious metals. Silver has a more prominent risk - aversion elasticity [9][10]. - The global "de - dollarization" process is accelerating. Central banks' silver - buying trend continues, with a 1230 - ton purchase in 2024 (18% year - on - year increase). The US stable - coin bill exposes the internal contradictions of the US monetary system, and emerging markets are diversifying their foreign - exchange reserves by increasing precious - metal holdings, including silver [12]. 2. Supply - Demand Pattern - Supply growth is weak. Global silver production decreased by 2% in 2024. The supply is constrained by factors such as the scarcity of silver mines and recycling bottlenecks. In 2025, the global silver supply gap is expected to reach 117.6 million ounces (about 3659 tons), marking the fifth consecutive year of shortage [3][15]. - Demand is expanding. The recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the acceleration of 5G base - station construction have increased the demand for industrial silver. The demand for silver coins and bars is expected to grow by more than 7% in 2025 [17]. 3. Financial Attribute - The current gold - silver ratio is as high as 94, far exceeding the historical average range of 60 - 80. Historically, after the gold - silver ratio exceeded 80, it was usually repaired through the accelerated rise of silver. If the ratio returns to 80, based on the current COMEX gold price of $3400/ounce, the corresponding silver price would be $42.5/ounce, equivalent to over 10,000 yuan/kg in the domestic market [3][18][20]. - The historical performance of silver shows that in 2011, it once exceeded $35/ounce and then reached $49.5/ounce in less than two months. Recently, it has broken through $35/ounce again, indicating that a bull - market rally can be expected [22].

1. Core View on Urea - On June 20, 2025, the urea price plummeted due to multiple factors [3] - The domestic urea production capacity has been continuously expanding, with an expected new capacity (including replacement) of 6.6 million tons/year in 2025. The total production capacity may exceed 75 million tons/year by the end of the year, with a stable daily output of over 200,000 tons and an operating rate of around 87% [4] - The demand is weak. In agriculture, during the summer top - dressing season, grass - roots procurement is cautious, and the procurement volume is only 70% of previous years. Industrial demand is also poor, with the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises dropping significantly to around 37% [4] - As of June 11, the national urea enterprise inventory reached 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 13.7%. Urea exports are strictly controlled, and the port - gathering speed is slow, with an export expectation of less than 2 million tons this year, which is difficult to relieve the domestic inventory pressure [5] - The decline in raw material coal prices weakens the cost support, and the production costs of coal - based and gas - based enterprises have decreased simultaneously, giving enterprises more room to cut prices [5] 2. Technical Analysis of Different Futures 2.1 Stock Index Futures - Rumors that Trump will decide whether to attack Iran within two weeks have led to a decline in international oil prices. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate next week [8] 2.2 Gold - The Fed's decision not to cut interest rates in the meeting has reduced the expectation of an interest rate cut this year, causing an adjustment in gold prices. However, the general upward trend remains unchanged, and it is only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] 2.3 Iron Ore - The supply has increased month - on - month, the pig iron output has weakened seasonally, and the ports have returned to inventory accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore. Technically, pay attention to the important support below and view it with a fluctuating perspective [15][16] 2.4 Glass - The supply side has not experienced a major loss - induced cold repair situation, the factory inventory is still at a high level, the downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and the demand has not continued to increase significantly. It still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and a fluctuating view is adopted [19][20] 2.5 Soybean Oil - Due to the long - term expectation of the US biodiesel policy and the uncertain Middle East situation, the short - term trend of oils and fats may be fluctuating or slightly stronger. However, the current supply - demand situation is not tight, and it is in the period of medium - term seasonal production and inventory increase. When the price reaches the previous high pressure area of 8280 - 8300, take profit on long positions and take short positions with a light position [21]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the daily journal of GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD, dated June 20, 2025 [1] - It analyzes the reasons for the rise of jujube futures and provides technical analysis of various futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and urea [2][7][11] Group 2: Jujube Futures Analysis Investment Rating - Treat the jujube futures market with an oscillating and slightly bullish view [5] Core View - The rise of jujube futures on June 19, 2025, is due to weather speculation and capital promotion, and future trends depend on weather, growth, and consumption [3][5] Key Points - Fundamental factor: High - temperature weather in southern Xinjiang may cause jujube yield reduction, leading to supply concerns and price rebound, despite ring - cutting measures [4] - Market factor: Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's policy adjustment (lowering margin ratio to 9% and adjusting daily price limit to 8% from June 20) attracts more capital and stimulates speculation [4] - Inhibiting factor: Seasonal fresh fruits replace jujubes, and it's the off - season for jujube demand. Current inventory is 10,693 tons, down 0.14% week - on - week but up 69.51% year - on - year [4] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Other Futures Stock Index Futures - Asian stock markets adjusted due to an attack schedule, and the A - share market closed with a large negative line. The market is expected to continue to oscillate [8][9] Gold Futures - After the Fed's decision not to cut interest rates, gold adjusted, but the long - term trend is still bullish. A low - buying strategy is recommended [12][13] Iron Ore Futures - Supply is increasing, iron - water production is seasonally weakening, and ports are restocking. The market faces over - valuation risks. Observe the lower support level and view it with an oscillating perspective [14][15] Glass Futures - Supply has no major cold - repair situation, factory inventory is high, and downstream demand is weak. Wait for real - estate stimulus or major policies. The market is viewed with an oscillating mindset after a small rebound [17][18] Urea Futures - Domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons with an 87.23% operating rate. Agricultural demand is slow, and prices are weakly adjusting. Be cautious of a strong long - position rebound when reaching the previous support area [21]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/06/19 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油期货连续上涨，后续行情怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年6月18日，大连商品交易所豆油期货主力y2509合约上涨72元 ，最新价达8040元，表现颇为 亮眼。近期豆油期货价格上涨，背后有着多重因素。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，阿根廷2024/25年度大豆产量因干旱降至4900万吨，同比减少6% ，巴西大豆收割 进度滞后，全球大豆库存消费比降至28%，创五年新低，大豆供应紧张传导至豆油。 在需求端，随着全球经济复苏，食品加工行业对豆油需求稳定增长。同时，生物柴油需求的提升也 极大拉动了豆油消费，美国上调2025年生柴掺混目标，欧盟、美国等地区生物柴油政策鼓励使用植 物油 ，豆油作为生物柴油重要原料，需求大增。 此外，国际原油价格在6月17日显著上涨，截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所7月交货的轻质原油期货 价格涨幅为4. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The urea futures market has rebounded for three consecutive days, but further rebound faces many constraints. It is advisable to take a short - term bullish and long - term bearish approach [3]. - The A - share market is expected to continue to fluctuate, affected by factors such as the Israel - Iran conflict and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum [7]. - The gold market remains bullish, and it is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective, considering supply, demand, and price support [14]. - The glass market should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term, pending the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy changes [18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Futures - On June 17, the main contract of urea futures led the futures market with a nearly 4% increase, driven by changes in international geopolitical situations that altered export expectations [3]. - However, from the supply side, the supply - demand contradiction is not substantially alleviated, with daily production exceeding 200,000 tons and large inventory - removal pressure. In 2025, about 4 million tons of new production capacity will be added, and the oversupply pattern is hard to change [3]. - From the demand side, agricultural demand is in the off - season, and industrial demand is shrinking. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has dropped to 37.13%, and that of melamine has decreased by 8.3%. As of June 15, enterprise inventory reached 142210 tons, far exceeding the equilibrium threshold of 80000 tons [3]. - Currently, the domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is still slow, and the urea price continues to be weakly adjusted. When it reaches the previous support area, short - sellers should be vigilant against strong long - side rebounds [22]. A - share Market - The Israel - Iran conflict continues, and the upcoming Lujiazui Financial Forum is favorable for A - shares. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - Today, the three major A - share indexes opened higher and closed lower, with a small - amplitude oscillating decline throughout the day and a rebound at the end of the session, finally closing with a doji star. The news is bearish [8]. Gold Market - Due to the Israel's raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it also follows the upward trend. The gold market remains bullish, and it is only a matter of time before a new high is reached. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. Iron Ore Market - Supply has increased month - on - month, iron - water production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to the accumulation stage. The weak reality increases the risk of over - valuation of iron ore. Attention should be paid to steel mill profits and industrial repair status. Technically, the price tested the lower support level today, and the market should be viewed with a fluctuating perspective [14]. Glass Market - On the supply side, there is no major cold - repair situation due to losses, factory inventories are still at a high level, the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong, and demand has not continued to increase significantly. Technically, it showed a narrow - range fluctuation today, and it should be regarded as fluctuating in the short term [18].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a strong trend, but investors should remain cautious and avoid blind chasing [3]. - The stock index futures market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. - The gold market is expected to reach new highs, and a low - buying strategy is more prudent [11]. - The iron ore market should be viewed with a focus on oscillations, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [14]. - The glass market should be viewed as oscillating in the short - term, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. - The urea market is in a weak adjustment phase, and short - position holders should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Futures - On June 16, the main contract of methanol futures rose by over 4%. The increase was driven by both supply - side tightening and demand - side recovery [3]. - On the supply side, domestic coal - based methanol plants reduced production due to environmental inspections, with the operating rate dropping to 70% and production decreasing by 3% compared to last week. Imports also decreased due to tight supply in the Middle East [3]. - On the demand side, the operating rate of MTO units rose to 78%, the demand in the olefin industry recovered, and formaldehyde enterprises increased their inventory, driving up the demand for methanol [3]. - In terms of cost structure, coal prices rose by 5%, and natural gas prices increased slightly, providing strong cost support [3]. - Due to the escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel, 4 methanol plants in Iran with a total capacity of 6.6 million tons shut down, and the rest operated at low loads. Iranian methanol accounts for about half of China's imports [3]. Stock Index Futures - In May, the stable and positive trend remained unchanged, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upward [7]. Gold - Due to the Israeli raid on Iran, geopolitical risks have intensified. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and although Shanghai gold is relatively weak, it is also following the upward trend. Gold is still expected to reach new highs [12]. Iron Ore - Supply has increased month - on - month, pig iron production has seasonally weakened, and port inventories have returned to accumulation. The weak reality has increased the over - valuation risk of iron ore, and attention should be paid to steel mill profits [15]. - Technically, the support level was tested again today and proved effective, so the market should be viewed as oscillating [14]. Glass - On the supply side, there has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses, and factory inventories remain high. Downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation, and demand has not continued to increase significantly [18]. - Technically, the market showed narrow - range fluctuations today, and a short - term oscillating view is adopted, pending the effects of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17]. Urea - On the supply side, the daily domestic urea production is around 205,600 tons, and the operating rate is about 87.23% [19]. - On the demand side, agricultural demand progress is still slow, and downstream players' participation is limited. Urea prices continue to adjust weakly. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders have made profits, and they should be vigilant against strong long - position rebounds [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Crude oil futures prices rose significantly on June 12 and 13, 2025, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% on the 12th, closing at $68.15 per barrel, and domestic crude oil futures hitting the daily limit on the 13th. Geopolitical tensions, supply - demand imbalances, and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations contributed to the price increase. The subsequent rise in crude oil prices may push up inflation and increase downstream enterprise costs [3]. - For stock index futures, next week's market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6]. - Gold is still bullish, and it's only a matter of time to reach a new high. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series, but it has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12 and 13, 2025, crude oil futures prices rose significantly. Geopolitical tensions, such as the uncertainty of the US - Iran nuclear negotiation and threats of conflict, led to concerns about supply disruptions. From the supply - demand perspective, the peak travel season in the US and the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East increased demand, while the US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 3.6 million barrels last week. Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations also boosted prices. The price increase may push up inflation and increase downstream costs [3]. Stock Index Futures - After Israel attacked Iran, the three major A - share indexes opened lower and closed with a mid -阴线, with a slight rebound at the end. Next week, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. Gold - Due to Israel's surprise attack on Iran, geopolitical risks increased. The overseas gold market is approaching a new high, and Shanghai gold, although relatively weak, is also rising. Gold is still bullish, and reaching a new high is just a matter of time. A low - buying strategy is more prudent [10][11]. Iron Ore - At the end of the quarter, mines are still ramping up shipments, and iron - water production is seasonally weak, increasing the over - valuation risk of iron ore. However, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. It is a strong variety in the black series, but has been rising weakly recently and should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. Glass - There has been no significant cold - repair situation due to losses on the supply side, factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak restocking motivation. The market should be viewed with a short - term volatile mindset, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. Urea - The domestic daily urea production is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream players are less involved. Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. When reaching the previous support area, short - position holders should be wary of a strong rebound from the long side [21].

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On June 12, 2025, crude oil futures rose significantly, with the WTI July crude oil futures up 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel. The rise was due to geopolitical tensions, increased demand, and positive progress in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations. The price increase may push up inflation and raise downstream costs, and continuous attention should be paid to geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. - A-share market: After opening lower in the morning, the three major A-share indexes quickly rebounded and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat. With limited news except for the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [6][7]. - Gold: Currently in a volatile pattern that is difficult to change in the short term, but still bullish in the long term. It is advisable to buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10][11]. - Iron ore: There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but the continuous decline in port inventories supports the market. It is still a strong variety in the black series. Technically, the support below is effective, but it has been rising weakly recently, so it should be viewed as a volatile market [14][15]. - Glass: The supply side has not seen significant losses and cold repairs, factory inventories are still high, and downstream demand has not increased significantly. It is necessary to wait for the effects of real estate stimulus or major policy announcements. Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17][18]. - Urea: The domestic daily urea output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23%. Agricultural demand progress is slow, and the price continues to adjust weakly. When it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil Futures - On June 12, 2025, WTI 7 - month crude oil futures rose 4.88% to $68.15 per barrel [3]. - Reasons for the rise: geopolitical tensions (uncertainty in US - Iran nuclear negotiations), increased demand (US summer travel peak and Middle - East summer electricity - consumption peak), and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations [3]. - Impact: may push up inflation and increase downstream costs, and continuous attention is needed on geopolitical situations, OPEC+ policies, and global economic trends [3]. A - share Market - The three major A - share indexes opened lower, rebounded quickly, and then fluctuated sideways, closing flat [7]. - With limited news except for the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism meeting, the market is expected to continue high - level fluctuations [6]. Gold - Currently in a volatile pattern, difficult to change in the short term, but bullish in the long term [11]. - Operation strategy: buy on dips rather than chase the rise [10]. Iron Ore - There is a risk of overvaluation due to weak demand, but port inventory decline supports the market [14][15]. - Technically, the support below is effective, but the recent rise is weak, so it is a volatile market [14]. Glass - Supply side: no significant losses and cold repairs, high factory inventories [18]. - Demand side: downstream demand has not increased significantly, waiting for real estate stimulus or major policy announcements [17][18]. - Technically, it declined slightly today, and a short - term volatile view is adopted [17]. Urea - Supply: domestic daily output is about 205,600 tons, with an operating rate of about 87.23% [21]. - Demand: agricultural demand progress is slow, and downstream follow - up is limited, so the price continues to adjust weakly [21]. - Strategy: when it reaches the previous support area, short - position profits are realized, and a strong rebound from the long side should be watched out for [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - On June 11, 2025, the rebar futures price rose to 2991 yuan/ton, driven by macro - economic factors, policies, market supply - demand, and market expectations [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is expected that the market will likely maintain high - level fluctuations [7]. - Gold is in a short - term oscillatory pattern but is bullish in the long run, and the operation should focus on going long, with low - buying recommended instead of chasing the rise [11][12]. - Iron ore is a strong variety in the black series. Despite over - valuation risks due to weak reality, the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market, and a bullish - oscillatory view is recommended [15][16]. - For glass, an oscillatory - bullish view remains, waiting for the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements [18]. - Urea prices are in a weak adjustment. With domestic daily production at about 20.56 tons and an 87.23% operating rate, agricultural demand is slow, and when reaching the previous support area, there is a risk of a strong rebound from the long side [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Futures - The price increase is due to domestic economic recovery driving demand, government environmental policies reducing supply, supply - demand imbalances caused by cost and policy factors, and positive market expectations [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, with the background of China and the US reaching an agreement framework in principle [7]. Gold - It is in a short - term oscillatory pattern, but long - term bullish. Operationally, it is advisable to go long and choose low - buying [11][12]. Iron Ore - There is an over - valuation risk due to weak reality, but the continuous decline in port inventory supports the market. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a bullish - oscillatory view is recommended [15][16]. Glass - Supply has not seen significant cold - repair due to losses, factory inventories are high, and downstream demand is weak. An oscillatory - bullish view remains, waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies [18][19]. Urea - Domestic daily production is about 20.56 tons with an 87.23% operating rate. Agricultural demand is slow, prices are in a weak adjustment, and when reaching the previous support area, there is a risk of a long - side rebound [22].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 6 / 1 1 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年6月10日焦煤期货上涨，是多因素共振的结果。从宏观层面看，政策端稳增长信号加强，宏观 预期边际改善，为市场注入信心，资金活跃度提升，推动焦煤期货价格上扬。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供需角度而言，前期焦煤价格持续下行，5月主力合约跌幅近22% ，期货相较现货跌幅更大，盘面 存在强烈修复基差需求。6月3日，焦煤主力合约一度大幅下探，贴水现货成本较多，超跌状态显著， 为反弹提供了内在动力。同时，成本端给予一定支撑，山西部分煤种价格逼近现金成本线，煤矿减 产预期渐浓，供应收缩预期升温，也推动了价格上涨。 不过，此次上涨持续性存疑。供应端，5月焦煤进口量维持高位，蒙煤口岸成交价持续下滑。需求端， 虽当前钢厂铁水日产量处于高位，但6月为传统淡季，南方雨季也抑制开工，产量后续大概率环比回 落，且现货 ...