金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 主力合约：12月09日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天下跌0.73%，基差走强至-26元/吨。 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4630元/吨，较前一交易日下跌15元/吨。成本端布伦特原油再次跌倒63美元以下，OPEC+会议维持 26年1季度暂停增产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.92天，环比增加0.14天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 预期：PTA之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，库存格局逐步转向累库。下游聚酯开工高位小幅下降，预计终端需求将进一步转弱； PTA加工费再次回落至150元附近，短期预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月09日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601下跌 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/09 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 焦煤接近跌停板，后市怎么看？ 12月8日焦煤主力合约价格报1102.5元/吨，当日跌7.13%，且11月以来累计跌幅已达17%. 后续大概率呈短期承压震荡、下跌空间有限，反弹高度受限的态势 ： 供应端，国内煤矿受超产核查等约束产量处近年同期低位，但蒙煤通关量高位、海运煤集中到港，12月进 口端仍将持续压制价格 。 需求端，当前铁水日产量232万吨，12月钢厂检修增多将进一步拉低产量，叠加钢厂库存充裕，对焦煤采 购意愿低迷 。 不过当前2601合约价已低于1100元/吨的主流现货仓单成本，且春节前下游存在补库需求，会支撑价格难 再大幅下探 。 而宏观政策利好尚未转化为实质需求，短期多空博弈加剧，主力合约尚未企稳，抄底操作需格外谨慎。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/08 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 聊聊多晶硅期货看空的四大逻辑 多晶硅期货做空核心逻辑围绕供需失衡、政策预期落空及库存高压展开，具体如下 ： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.供应过剩持续：10月国内多晶硅产量达13.7万吨环比增6.2%，年末库存大概率超40万吨。西北新增产能 又对冲了西南枯水期减产，供应端压力难缓解，而库存消化需数月。 2.需求端疲软传导：下游硅片11月排产环比降1GW，电池片企业累库下压缩采购。光伏终端因上半年抢装 透支需求，四季度组件定标量同比大降，终端低迷态势向上传导至多晶硅环节。 3.政策利好失效：收储、产量配额等政策推进滞后，此前的政策预期溢价已回吐。市场对政策信心削弱， 利好消息对盘面提振力递减，难撑价格上涨。 4.交割与仓单压力：11月仓单强制注销将释放现货，期货交割价高于现货价，多头接货即亏损。企业为回 笼资金注册仓单 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES IFind、Mysteel、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 原油 OPEC+决议2026年第一季度保持其暂停增产的政策不变，当下12月每日增加13.7万桶石油供应。目前国际原油市场的主要交易逻辑未发生 变化，利好来自美国对产油国的制裁政策延续和地缘局势的不确定性，而利空则是原油增产预期及全球经济、需求欠佳。地缘局势上不稳定性依 然存在，乌克兰仍在对俄罗斯境内持续袭击，美国或将军事入侵委内瑞拉。预计短期原油价格反弹空间有限，长期仍是维持震荡偏弱格局。 PX&PTA PX国内整体负荷维持高位，海外工厂低负荷运行。印度BIS认证取消对出口格局形成利好，供需格局偏紧，支撑周内PX加工费继续上涨， PXN价格走扩至290美元左右。本周国内PTA开工率提升，虹港250万吨PTA装置重启，中泰120万吨PTA装置提负。前段时间主动"反内卷"的 产能未来将逐步重启、提负。下游聚酯负荷高位持稳，不过终端织造的订单天数和库存水平已显示需求转弱，高开工或不可持续 ...

GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：文华、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 品种 周度观点 需求：需求季节性提振有限，样本屠宰企开工率 34.12%，较上月微降 0.30 个百分点；鲜销率 均值 85.70%，环比下滑 0.75 个百分点，批发市场白条销量难形成有效拉动，终端消费承接力 不足。 供给：全国重点省份养殖企业生猪计划出栏量环比涨 3.20%。年底规模企业冲刺出栏计划，前 期二次育肥猪源集中出栏，全国生猪均重达 123.68kg，大猪供应偏多，整体供应压力较大。 生猪 库存：屠宰企业主动入库积极性低，但猪肉供应偏多导致鲜销困难，部分企业被动入库，冻品 库存呈 "入库量大于出库量" 的增加态势，库存压力抑制企业补库意愿。 利润：养殖端处于微亏状态，在猪价持续承压的情况下，虽然养殖成本有所下降，但利润空间 难以有效修复。当前市场缺乏推动价格强势回升的动力，预计短期养殖利润将继续承压。 结论：供需失衡格局短期难扭转，12 月价格将低位震荡、短暂回弹后承压回落，养殖端微亏持 续，需 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - It is recommended to short Shanghai silver futures due to the fading macro - level benefits, technical callback signals, and potential variables in funds and supply - demand [3][4]. - For stock index futures, it is advisable to treat the market as a high - level oscillation [8]. - For gold, it is in a complex oscillation process, and it is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. - For iron ore, it is in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support, and a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14]. - For glass, a bearish oscillation view is taken from a technical perspective [17]. - For coking coal, considering the tight supply and cautious downstream procurement, opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. - For pulp, before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Silver Futures - Macro - level: The rise of Shanghai silver depends on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Positive US economic data will cool down the expectation, strengthen the US dollar, and suppress silver prices. The current price has reflected a large amount of the expectation, and price decline may occur after the benefit is realized [3]. - Technical level: After the rise, Shanghai silver is prone to over - buying. Signals such as the KD value turning around above 80, MACD top divergence, price hitting the upper Bollinger Band, large deviation from short - term moving averages, long upper shadows at high levels, and price rising with volume shrinking indicate weak upward momentum, suitable for light - position short - selling trials [3]. - Funds and supply - demand: The sharp rise has led to strong profit - taking demand. A significant decrease in positions during the price rise means capital withdrawal. The high volatility of Shanghai silver is unsustainable, and short - selling volatility can be profitable when it falls. The supply of mined silver may gradually recover, alleviating the supply - demand tension [4]. Stock Index Futures - The market showed an upward trend in the afternoon after morning oscillation today. The Shanghai Composite Index was weak, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices were strong in the afternoon. Whether the adjustment is over needs further confirmation, and the market should be treated as a high - level oscillation [8][9]. Gold - Gold is in a complex oscillation process, which is expected to continue for some time. It is not advisable to chase up or sell down [12]. Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of supply relaxation has further fermented. On the demand side, except for the remaining strength in exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation strategy of high - selling and low - buying is recommended [14][15]. Glass - The daily melting capacity has decreased, and the inventory has decreased again this week. The main driving factors are the supply - side clearance policies. Technically, a bearish oscillation view is taken as the daily line has continuously closed with negative candles [17][18]. Coking Coal - Downstream enterprises' procurement is cautious, with low inventory and mainly for rigid demand. On the supply side, some coal mines have reduced production due to underground problems, and the overall supply remains tight. Opportunities for long positions should be grasped [20]. Pulp - The Lion brand pulp mill in Canada's BC province with an annual output of 380,000 tons will permanently shut down from December, accounting for about 1.5% of the commercial bleached softwood pulp capacity. The Rauma pulp mill of Stora Enso with a capacity of 650,000 tons has a one - month temporary shutdown. Affected by foreign pulp mill production cuts and capital games in deliverable products, the futures price has risen significantly. Before the end of the domestic Spring Festival peak season, it is advisable to buy on dips [23].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: The PTA market is expected to continue to fluctuate with the cost side in the short - term. Supply reduction is significant recently, but previously shut - down capacities will gradually restart, leading to a shift to inventory accumulation. The cancellation of export restrictions by India boosts exports, while downstream polyester开工 is expected to seasonally weaken [3]. - MEG: Under the expectation of both supply and demand reduction, MEG may oscillate at a low level. It is continuously accumulating inventory, though the accumulation rate has decreased. Some domestic plants plan to reduce production or conduct maintenance, and an Iranian plant has shut down [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs PTA - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the PTA main futures contract TA2601 rose 0.34%, and the basis weakened to - 37 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 4685 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. OPEC + decided to suspend production increase in Q1 2026. The PTA capacity utilization rate was 73.81%, and the weekly PTA factory inventory days were 3.92 days, a 0.14 - day increase from the previous week [3]. - **Main Force Movements**: Short - side main forces increased their positions [3]. MEG - **Market Performance**: On December 04, the ethylene glycol main futures contract eg2601 fell 0.41%, and the basis weakened to - 8 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The market price in East China was 3813 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Brent crude oil fluctuated around $63. The production profit of coal - based ethylene glycol remained in the red. The weekly MEG port inventory in East China totaled 71.9 tons, a 1.1 - ton increase from the previous week [4]. - **Main Force Movements**: There was a divergence between long - side and short - side main forces [4].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/04 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纸浆主力合约再次日内涨超3%，后市怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 12月3日纸浆主力合约涨3.53%至5402元/吨，最高涨幅超过3% ，但后市大概率维持震荡格局，中长期则 有中枢上移潜力。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 短期来看，上涨主要源于交割品不足引发的盘面资金博弈，而非基本面实质改善 。 当前国内港口库存仍达217.2万吨，针叶浆库存高位且需求疲软，下游纸厂对高价原料采购谨慎，仅刚需采 浆，询盘积极性未明显提升。 虽阔叶浆货源偏紧、外盘成本支撑其价格抗跌，但整体供需改善有限，浆价难持续单边上涨。 中长期而言，2026年海外纸浆新增产能少且有减产转产计划，欧洲需求回暖或减少国内进口量 。 同时国内成品纸产能扩张将带来浆料边际需求增量，当前浆价估值偏低，价格中枢有望上移。 后续需重点关注港口去库进度及下游成品纸涨价落地效果，这两大因素将主 ...

金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 1 2 / 0 3 PTA 主力合约：12月03日PTA主力期货合约TA2601今天下跌0.46%，基差走强至-29元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价4705元/吨，较前一交易日下跌15元/吨。成本端原油价格下跌，OPEC+会议维持26年1季度暂停增 产决议；供给端PTA产能利用率73.81%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.78天，环比减少0.03天。 主力动向：多头主力减仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 预期：最近PTA供应减量较多，之前检修的产能将逐步开始重启，PTA阶段性幅去库。印度BIS取消对出口形成提振，预计下游聚酯开 工将季节性转弱。关注加工费修复下的装置复产情况，短期预计PTA市场依旧跟随成本端震荡运行。 MEG 主力合约：12月03日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2601下跌1.55%，基差走强至1元/吨。 基本面：今日乙二 ...

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/12/03 金信期货日刊 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 纸浆主力合约日内涨超3%，后市怎么看？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 12月2日纸浆主力合约涨2.62%至5272元/吨，最高涨幅超过3% ，但后市大概率维持震荡格局，中长期则 有中枢上移潜力。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 短期来看，上涨主要源于交割品不足引发的盘面资金博弈，而非基本面实质改善 。 当前国内港口库存仍达217.2万吨，针叶浆库存高位且需求疲软，下游纸厂对高价原料采购谨慎，仅刚需采 浆，询盘积极性未明显提升。 虽阔叶浆货源偏紧、外盘成本支撑其价格抗跌，但整体供需改善有限，浆价难持续单边上涨。 中长期而言，2026年海外纸浆新增产能少且有减产转产计划，欧洲需求回暖或减少国内进口量 。 同时国内成品纸产能扩张将带来浆料边际需求增量，当前浆价估值偏低，价格中枢有望上移。 后续需重点关注港口去库进度及下游成品纸涨价落地效果，这两大因素将主导浆 ...