Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on May 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Caustic Soda Market - From May 5th to 12th, 2025, the caustic soda price rose from 807 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 829 yuan/ton at the weekend, a significant increase of 2.73% and 4.94% compared to the same period last year [3] - The price increase is due to supply - demand factors (supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and demand was stable as downstream aluminum plants had high profits and high - load production) and macro factors (US tariff adjustments after the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks) [3][4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - A50 rose sharply and the Hong Kong stock market soared. Technically, it remains strongly bullish in the short - term, and the trend continuation is favorable [7] - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose significantly due to the expected benefits of Sino - US negotiations, and the post - market joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks was positive [8] Group 4: Gold Market - Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiations, gold adjusted further. The outer - market gold neared the low point, and Shanghai gold broke below the pre - holiday low. However, the overall pattern is still oscillatory, and it is expected that the downward adjustment space is limited, with strong support for Shanghai gold between 750 - 760 [10][11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market - In May, there is a large pressure of supply surplus due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high iron ore valuations. But the market sentiment has turned positive due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. Technically, it strengthened in oscillation today, with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory and bullish [14] Group 6: Glass Market - The continuous release of demand still awaits the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. The Sino - US economic and trade talks brought significant positive news, changing the market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory [17] Group 7: Soybean No.1 Market - The tight supply situation of imported soybeans has been rapidly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local - reserve soybeans provides some support for the anti - decline of the soybean No.1 futures market. Profit - taking funds are leaving the market, the position has been continuously decreasing, and technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is in a slump with prices dropping significantly and a weak outlook due to oversupply, cost - side factors, and the macro - economic environment. The technical indicators also show a bearish trend [3]. - The short - term strong characteristics of stock index futures remain obvious, continuing the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is expected this weekend [6][7]. - The medium - to long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is currently in a volatile pattern after a short - term technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and large previous gains [10][11]. - Iron ore faces a large supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the risk of high valuation is heightened as domestic demand turns to the seasonal off - season. The high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. - The demand for glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it hits a new low and the bearish view remains [17]. - The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures, but there are signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Market - Supply: Soda ash has seen rapid capacity expansion in recent years. New capacities such as Jiangsu Debang and Lianyungang Alkali Industry have entered the market, with continuous release of new capacity in 2025, resulting in abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Float glass demand has decreased due to the sluggish real - estate market, and the growth of photovoltaic glass has slowed down. The demand increment from other fields like lithium carbonate is small [3]. - Cost: The prices of upstream coal and raw salt have dropped, reducing the costs of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, and providing support for price decline [3]. - Macro - environment: Uncertainty in economic recovery has led to a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, reduced investor risk preference, and capital outflows from the futures market, pushing down soda ash futures prices [3]. - Technical analysis: MACD green bars are expanding, KDJ shows a death cross, the price has broken through the key psychological level, and short - term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a bearish market [3]. Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term strong characteristics are obvious, and it continues the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is awaited [6][7]. Gold - Long - term trend: The medium - to long - term upward logic remains unchanged. - Short - term situation: After a large increase, it is undergoing a technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and a large number of profit - taking positions. It is currently in a volatile pattern [10][11]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high valuation [14]. - Technical analysis: It had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. Glass - Demand: Demand needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The daily melting volume is low, the spot production and sales have improved slightly, but the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18]. - Technical analysis: It hit a new low today, and the bearish view remains [17]. Soybean No.1 - Supply - demand: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures [21]. - Technical analysis: Profit - taking funds are reducing positions, and the position has been continuously decreasing, showing signs of a phased peak [21].

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 0 9 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从基本面来看，当前氧化铝市场仍处于过剩格局 ，尽管5月8日价格上涨，但前期价格重心下移， 此前现货端企稳反弹部分源于北方电解铝产区补库。目前市场依赖供给缩减来平衡供需，但周度产 量数据显示供应缩减力度并不显著。而且，市场预期全年矿端供给大概率趋向宽松，几内亚矿产出 速率今年快于去年，近期还有低价成交消息，成本塌陷弱化供应减量逻辑。 2.从技术面分析，此前氧化铝期货呈近强远弱的BACK结构，主力合约在2870--2670区间震荡 。5月 8日的上涨是否能打破原有震荡格局有待观察。若后续不能持续放量上涨并突破关键压力位，很可能 只是反弹。 3.此次上涨或因短期市场情绪变化、资金炒作，以及河北文丰集团涉嫌相关项目带来供应端扰动。但 在整体过剩格局和矿端供应预期宽松背景下，很难仅凭这一次上涨就判定为反转。后续需关注产能 投放进度 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The report analyzes the reasons for the sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum futures and provides technical analysis of multiple futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and caustic soda [3][7][11][15][18][23] Group 2: Reasons for the Sharp Decline of Shanghai Aluminum Futures - From the demand side, downstream demand is significantly weak. The procurement willingness of downstream processing enterprises remains low, and the demand growth of industries such as construction and automobile manufacturing for aluminum is slow. The consumption side shows no obvious signs of recovery. In Guangdong, although the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains tight, the demand side is dragged down by the decline in export orders, weakening the support for high prices [3] - In terms of supply, although the futures warehouse receipts continue to decline (recently about 149,000 tons), domestic production capacity is gradually being released, and the market supply is relatively sufficient, offsetting the benefits of inventory reduction [3] - Macroeconomically, international macro disturbances intensify. Weak domestic exports (from January to February, the export of wrought aluminum decreased by 11% year - on - year) suppress import demand, and the widening of the internal - external price difference intensifies the domestic selling pressure. The overall market sentiment is weak, and investors lack confidence in the aluminum price trend, which also promotes the price decline [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - There are gaps in the market, and there are continuous policy benefits. In the short term, it is expected to continue the pattern of fluctuating upward [7] Gold Futures - In the short term, the risk - aversion sentiment recedes, and there are many profit - taking positions due to the large cumulative increase in the early stage, so it faces a technical correction. In the long - term, due to the damage to the US dollar credit, the upward logic remains unchanged. The external gold has risen sharply and is adjusting near the previous high, while Shanghai Gold is relatively weaker but remains in a strong oscillation pattern [11][12] Iron Ore Futures - In May, the reduction in downstream exports and the recovery of shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure. At the same time, domestic demand is about to turn to the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation of iron ore. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [15] Glass Futures - The continuous release of demand still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it opened high and closed low today, and the short - term thinking of fluctuating downward remains unchanged. Currently, the daily melting is at a low level. Although the spot production and sales have improved, the factory inventory is still at a high level, and the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [18][19] Caustic Soda Futures - The market price is running at a low level, and there are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, especially the continuous production reduction in the alumina industry. However, manufacturers are highly motivated to ship. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [23]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 5 / 0 7 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 氧化铝期货跌跌不休，底在何方？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 自年初以来，氧化铝期货价格便持续下行，不断刷新阶段性新低，如今已跌破关键支撑位，丝毫没 有止跌企稳的迹象 。造成这一局面的主要原因在于供需严重失衡。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，国内多个氧化铝新产能项目相继投产，像广西华昇二期、魏桥新线等，大量新增产 能涌入市场，使得供应大幅增加。海外方面，锦江和Inalum的项目也有产能释放，供应压力进一步 增大。而在需求端，下游电解铝产能运行稳定，对氧化铝的需求增长有限，难以消化过剩的供应。 成本端也难以给氧化铝价格提供支撑。几内亚铝土矿发运大幅增长，进口矿价格持续走低，本周几 内亚铝土矿CIF价格已降至86美元/吨 ，较年初下降28美元/吨。这使得氧化铝生产成本不断下移，成 本支撑减弱。 当前氧化铝期价暂时难言企稳， ...

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂， 市场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供 大于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 2.在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 3.政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月29日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? 2025年4月28日豆油豆粕期货价格暴跌，主要有以下几方面原因： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂，市 场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供大 于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月28日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 | 主力动 ...

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 8 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 生猪期货价格暴跌原因分析 ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 2025年4月24日，生猪期货市场出现暴跌行情，主力2509合约日线呈大阴线形态并伴随长下影线， 2511合约也大幅下跌，日内最低价格13685元/吨 ，接近前期震荡区间下沿的两次低点。这一暴跌现 象主要由供需和市场情绪三方面因素导致。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 从供应端来看，能繁母猪与新生仔猪数量均显示未来生猪供应量充足。官方数据显示去年12月底前 能繁母猪数量持续上升，意味着今年10月底之前生猪理论出栏量将持续处于上升趋势当中。今年3月 份新生仔猪数量上升至接近2023年的高位水平，一季度新生仔猪对应7-8-9月份生猪出栏，相应的9 月合约面临的出栏压力较大。同时，今年2 - 4月生猪压栏及二次育肥带来的体重增加和供应后移， 虽能补充二季度供应，但之后供应压力会进一步加 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 2025年4月24日为什么黄金下跌而白银上涨？ 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.黄金价格下跌，主要是因为前期涨幅过大，积累了较多获利盘。4月22日现货黄金价格首次突破 3500美元/盎司的历史高位，大量投资者选择获利了结 ，引发抛售潮。同时，市场避险情绪降温，特 朗普改口称"无意解雇鲍威尔" ，缓解美联储独立性担忧，俄乌冲突也现缓和迹象，投资者不再大 量涌入黄金避险。另外，美元反弹，美联储释放"鹰派信号" ，美元指数回升至98.95，以美元计价 的黄金价格受到压制。 2.白银上涨则得益于自身供需关系的变化。在供应端，白银矿产开采增速缓慢，且回收量有限，导致 供应相对紧张。需求端却十分强劲，白银在工业领域应用广泛，在太阳能、电动汽车、半导体等行 业需求持续攀升。全球对清洁能源的重视，使得太阳能产业发展迅 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 4 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 黄金收阴线，价格到顶了吗？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.首先，美元与美股反弹。当日美元指数单日上涨0.6%至98.95 ，因美国财长暗示贸易紧张局势缓和， 激发股市乐观情绪，美股回升，三大主要股指涨幅均超2.5%。美元的强势表现与美股对资金的吸引， 使得黄金的吸引力被削弱，部分资金从黄金市场流出，转向股市与美元资产。 2.其次，多头获利了结。此前黄金价格连续冲高，纽约商品交易所黄金期货在4月22日盘中一度升至 每盎司3509.90美元，首次突破3500美元关口。连续上涨积累了大量获利盘，在4月23日，部分投资 者选择高位套现，触发程序化交易抛售，大量卖盘涌现，导致黄金期货价格下跌。 3.最后，政策不确定性增加。特朗普政府对关税问题保持沉默，市场担忧美联储可能因政治压力调整 货币政策，这种不确定性加剧了市场短期波动，投资者观望情绪浓厚，减少对黄金期货的买入，促 使价格下行 。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需 ...