Group 1: Urea Futures - The urea futures price soared on August 19, with the main contract rising by 62 yuan, or 3.53%, to close at 1789 yuan. The surge was mainly due to the unexpectedly high tender offer for urea imports by India's IPL company [3]. - On the supply side, the daily output of the urea industry remained at a high level of 190,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 50 tons on August 5), the total enterprise inventory climbed to 917,300 tons (a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons on July 30), and the production enterprise operating rate was 84.93% (a week - on - week increase of 1.58%), indicating high supply elasticity [3]. - On the demand side, it showed the characteristics of "weak domestic demand and uncertain exports". The operating rate of compound fertilizer plants in North and Central China increased slowly, the raw material inventory could be used for about 7 days, and the purchasing willingness was low. Agricultural demand entered a seasonal off - season, and the grass - roots stocking willingness was lacking. Although the export port inspection policy was relaxed, the actual order conversion had not increased significantly [3]. - There are differences in the market regarding the subsequent trend. The bearish view believes that urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and the abundant supply pattern remains unchanged, expecting a weakening oscillation. The cautiously optimistic group points out that the current price is not high, the room for continuous decline is limited, and although one should not be overly optimistic about the upside, the export theme may still ferment [3]. Group 2: Stock Index Futures - News: Li Qiang proposed to further improve the implementation efficiency of macro - policies and stabilize market expectations. Many securities brokerage business departments saw a peak in customer consultations [7]. - Operation: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [7]. Group 3: Gold - The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased, which is beneficial to gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation on a platform [11]. Group 4: Iron Ore - The fundamentals are relatively strong as steel mills' profitability has improved, leading to high pig iron production. Also, under the call against involution, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Technically, it continued to adjust today, and it should be treated as a high - level wide - range oscillation in the near future [15]. Group 5: Glass - The macro - environment has improved and is continuously strengthening under the recovery expectation. The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market drive mainly comes from the domestic economy [19][20]. - Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Group 6: Methanol - Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased slightly due to a small amount of re - exports and ship departures, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation. It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Glass futures have good prospects for continued long - positions. The supply is shrinking, and the demand has new growth points, so it's advisable to continue going long on glass futures [3][4][5]. - The short - term A - share market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level. The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8][9]. - Gold is favored by the market as the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US increases, and currently, it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. - Iron ore has strong fundamental support and is in a resonance upward trend. It should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16][17]. - For glass, considering the improvement of the macro - environment and effective lower support, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20][21]. - Methanol in ports should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view as the inventory continues to accumulate [24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures - **Supply**: Policy promotes capacity clearance, and 4 production lines with a daily melting capacity of 2800 tons have stopped kilns, resulting in a shrinking supply [4]. - **Demand**: Although the demand from new commercial housing completion has declined, there is strong demand in urban renewal, old community renovation, interior decoration, the automotive industry, and the home appliance and kitchenware field, and export demand is also increasing [4]. A - share Market - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the three major A - share indexes opened higher, slightly declined, and then reached new highs in this round of rebound. The Shanghai Composite Index hit a 10 - year high [8][9]. - **News**: The central bank reaffirms a moderately loose monetary policy, and many places in the property market are accelerating the deployment of urban renewal [8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term market will continue to oscillate upward at a high level [8]. Gold - **Market Driver**: The July non - farm payrolls data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is beneficial to gold [12]. - **Market Condition**: Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term platform with small oscillations [12]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Steel mills' profitability has improved, iron - water production remains high, and the black - industry chain is in a healthy state, presenting a resonance upward trend [16][17]. - **Technical Aspect**: There was an adjustment today, and it should be treated with a high - level wide - range oscillation mindset recently [16]. Glass - **Supply and Demand**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [21]. - **Market Driver**: The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation [21]. - **Technical Aspect**: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [20]. Methanol - **Port Inventory**: Last week, the methanol port inventory continued to accumulate. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas in East China increased with a small amount of re - export and ship departure, the stable supply of foreign vessels led to continuous inventory accumulation [24]. - **Market Outlook**: It should be treated with a bearish and oscillating view [24].

Group 1: Report Core View - The soda ash futures have the potential to continue to be long due to supply reduction expectations, optimistic demand outlook, cost support, and policy speculation potential [3] Group 2: Soda Ash Futures Analysis - Supply: The current weekly production of the soda ash industry is maintained at a high level of 730,000 tons, with an operating rate as high as 87.13%. However, the new environmental protection policy in Qinghai will lead to production reduction expectations as Qinghai's capacity accounts for about 14.9% of the national capacity [3] - Demand: Although the float glass capacity is limited by the weak real - estate completion and new construction data, and the photovoltaic glass is in a loss situation, with the economic recovery, there is an optimistic expectation for future demand. The export volume of soda ash in the first half of 2025 increased significantly year - on - year, providing support to the market [3] - Cost: The prices of upstream raw materials such as coking coal have risen, and since fuel and raw materials account for a relatively high proportion in the cost of soda ash, it provides support to the soda ash futures price [3] Group 3: Other Futures Technical Analysis Stock Index Futures - The short - term market will enter a high - level shock stage [5] Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected. The probability of a rate cut in September has increased, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [8] Iron Ore - The fundamentals are strongly supported as the molten iron output remains at a high level due to the improvement in steel mill profitability. The black industry chain is in a relatively healthy state under the call for anti - involution. Technically, it has a small fluctuation today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range shock recently [11][12] Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [15][16] Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures price dropped, with a closing price of 9368 yuan and a decline of 1.04%. If supply continues to increase and demand fails to improve effectively, the palm oil futures price may face continued pressure [3]. - For stock index futures, due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase [6]. - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. - For iron ore, the overall fundamentals are strongly supported, and it shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. - For glass, the supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. - For alumina, it has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil Futures - On August 14, 2025, the palm oil futures closed at 9368 yuan, down 1.04%. The reasons for the decline are complex. On the supply side, Malaysia is in a seasonal production - increasing cycle, and Reuters expects the July inventory to reach a nearly two - year high, with the production - increasing expectation still in place in August. Indonesia's biodiesel and export policy adjustments bring uncertainty to international supply. On the demand side, domestic terminal consumption is weak, the spot basis in Chinese ports is continuously weakening despite low inventory, EU imports are down year - on - year, and India's high imports in June cannot change the overall weak demand. In addition, the weak price of soybean oil intensifies competition from substitutes, and technically, the daily line is near the over - bought area, with insufficient short - term upward momentum [3]. Stock Index Futures - Multiple institutions interpreted policies such as fiscal subsidies for personal consumer loans, and the National Data Bureau stated that China's total computing power ranks second in the world. Due to the high - level bearish candlestick, the short - term market will enter a high - level consolidation phase. Today, the three major A - share indices rose first and then fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index failed to break through 3700 points, ending an 8 - day winning streak with a small bullish candlestick with an upper shadow [6][7]. Gold - The July non - farm payroll data in the US was significantly lower than expected, and the data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range consolidation [10]. Iron Ore - With the improvement of steel mills' profitability, the molten iron output remains at a high level, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. In addition, the anti - involution sentiment in the black industry chain has led to a relatively healthy state, showing a resonance upward trend. Technically, it closed with a large bearish candlestick today and should be treated as a high - level wide - range consolidation [14][15]. Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [18][19]. Alumina - As a "mineral with stories", alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [22].

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Report" - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - The subsequent trend of silver futures is expected to be volatile and bullish [3]. - The "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" brings policy benefits to promote consumption in the financial sector, which continues to be positive for A-shares [7]. - The weaker-than-expected July non-farm payroll data, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicates that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a rate cut in September, which is positive for gold [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and after a small adjustment, it can still consider a low-buying strategy [15]. - The glass market has a slight improvement in supply and demand, and with the improvement of the macro - environment, a low - buying strategy can be maintained [19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [24]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Silver - Fundamentals: The global silver market has been in short supply for many years, and this pattern is expected to continue in 2025. Strong industrial demand from photovoltaics and new energy provides strong support for silver prices [4]. - Macro - level: The expectation of loose global monetary policy is increasing, the US dollar index may weaken in the medium term, inflation expectations are rising, and the de - dollarization trend may lead central banks to include silver in reserve assets, all of which are positive for silver [4]. - Technical analysis: After the London silver price breaks through the key position, there is no obvious resistance above. Institutions are generally bullish on silver, expecting the international silver price to fluctuate mainly between $45 - 49 per ounce in the second half of the year, and the Shanghai silver futures may reach 10,000 - 11,000 per kilogram [4]. A - shares (Stock Index Futures) - News: The "Personal Consumption Loan Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy Implementation Plan" is positive for A - shares. The three major A - share indexes showed a pattern of rising after a morning pull - back, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line, achieving 8 consecutive positive days [7][8]. - Operation: Continue to maintain a low - buying strategy [7]. Gold - News: The weaker - than - expected July non - farm payroll data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September rate cut, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range shock [11]. Iron Ore - Fundamentals: Steel mills' profits have improved, and iron water production remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The anti - involution in the black industry chain and the continuous news of black production restrictions have boosted market sentiment [15][16]. - Technical analysis: After a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy can be considered after stabilization [15]. Glass - Fundamentals: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driving force for the recent market is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19][20]. - Technical analysis: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [19]. Alumina - Fundamentals: Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, and the futures have long maintained high volatility [24]. - News: EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license. - Operation: Maintain a low - buying strategy [24].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views - On August 12, the soda ash futures closed at 1409 yuan, up 71 yuan or 5.31% from the previous day, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan. The rise was driven by macro - policies and cost factors. However, there are many uncertainties in the future trend. If there is no substantial positive support, the price may fall to the cost line [3]. - The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days. The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares, and the operation strategy is to go long on dips [6]. - The lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and the downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. - The iron ore market has a strong fundamental support due to high molten iron production and optimistic market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded significantly, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14][15]. - The glass market has a slightly improved supply - demand situation, mainly driven by the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, with effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18][19]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license, the strategy is to go long on dips [22]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Futures - Price: Closed at 1409 yuan on August 12, up 71 yuan or 5.31%, with the highest reaching 1429 yuan [3]. - Driving factors: Macro - policies and cost factors, including relevant policies from the Sixth Meeting of the Central Financial and Economic Commission and rising coal prices [3]. - Future trend: Uncertainties exist. High inventory and potential cost reduction may lead to price decline [3]. A - share Index - Market performance: The three major A - share indices had a volatile day, and the Shanghai Composite Index closed with a mid - yang line for 7 consecutive days [6]. - News: The suspension of 24% tariffs between China and the US for 90 days is positive for A - shares [6]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [6]. Gold - Influencing factors: Lower - than - expected July non - farm payrolls data and downward revision of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold [10]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range oscillation [10]. Iron Ore - Fundamental support: High molten iron production due to improved steel mill profitability and optimistic market sentiment from black - limit production news [14][15]. - Technical analysis: A significant rebound, and the strategy is to go long on dips [14]. Glass - Supply - demand situation: Slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [19]. - Driving factors: The improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation [19]. - Technical analysis: With effective support below, the strategy is to go long on dips [18]. Alumina - Market characteristics: Continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility [22]. - Event: EGA condemned Guinea's revocation of GAC's mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Go long on dips [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area may shift the industry's supply - demand balance from tight equilibrium to shortage, and lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong, but it's unlikely to reverse the lithium price trend. The market should be treated with a bullish and volatile view [3][4]. - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are all positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards [6]. - The weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals of iron ore are strongly supported. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - On August 11, the suspension of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo mining area made various market rumors self - defeating. The lithium carbonate futures opened at the daily limit. The market's focus is on Yichun lithium mines. Before the official announcement, the mine had already stopped production and had no short - term resumption plan [3]. - The monthly lithium carbonate supply of the Jianxiawo mining area and its supporting smelter is about 10,000 tons, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total. The suspension is related to the implementation of the new Mineral Resources Law in 2025, which has increased concerns about the supply side [4]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - Beijing's real - estate new policies, lithium mine shutdowns, and strong economic data are positive for A - shares, and the short - term trend is to fluctuate upwards [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - Weak July non - farm payrolls data and downward revisions of May and June data increase the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US, which is positive for gold. The weekly adjustment is sufficient, and it will have a short - term small - range platform shock [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The improvement of steel mill profitability maintains high pig iron production, and the overall fundamentals are strongly supported. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the black - industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, it rebounds upwards, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [13][14]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The main driver is the improvement of the domestic economic recovery expectation. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy is recommended [17][18]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy is recommended [21].

Report Overview - Report Title: Jinxin Futures Daily - Report Date: August 11, 2025 - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Carbonate Lithium**: In the short - term, the price of carbonate lithium may be supported due to the marginal improvement in fundamentals and the potential for further fermentation of mining license and production reduction expectations. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the global lithium resource supply is in an expansion cycle, and it is difficult for the lithium price to reverse the trend, with a view of "possible rebound, not yet a reversal", and it should be treated with a bullish bias in a volatile market [3]. - **A - shares**: 700 billion yuan of reverse repurchases keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant, which continues to be beneficial for A - shares. In the short - term, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6]. - **Gold**: The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a small - scale platform shock in the short - term [10]. - **Iron Ore**: The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The black industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, after a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [14][15]. - **Glass**: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market is mainly driven by the improvement and strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization should be adopted [18][19]. - **Alumina**: Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot Focus - In recent days, carbonate lithium futures have risen sharply by over 10%, and the volatility has increased, mainly due to the disturbance of the Jixiawo mining license renewal event. As of August 9, the Jixiawo mining license was due to expire, increasing the market's expectation of production reduction. If the production reduction is implemented, it will directly affect the short - term supply - demand balance. There are many market rumors recently, but there is no official conclusion yet. Before the risk events are settled this week, the market will fluctuate greatly [3]. Technical Analysis - Stock Index Futures - 700 billion yuan of reverse repurchases keep the liquidity of the banking system abundant, which is beneficial for A - shares. In the short - term, the market will continue to fluctuate upwards at a high level [6]. Technical Analysis - Gold - The July non - farm payroll data was significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of the data for May and June, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, increasing the probability of a September interest rate cut, which is beneficial for gold. Currently, the weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it will have a small - scale platform shock in the short - term [10]. Technical Analysis - Iron Ore - The profitability of steel mills has improved, and the molten iron output remains at a high level, with strong fundamental support. The black industry chain shows a resonance upward trend. Technically, after a small adjustment today, a low - buying strategy should be maintained [14][15]. Technical Analysis - Glass - The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak. The recent market is mainly driven by the improvement and strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery. Technically, the lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization should be adopted [18][19]. Technical Analysis - Alumina - Alumina has continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm, with high long - term volatility in futures. After EGA condemned Guinea's government for revoking GAC's mining license, a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The sharp rise in coking coal 2601 today is due to multiple factors, and investors should pay close attention to fundamentals and policy dynamics, treating it with a bias towards more in a volatile market [3][4]. - The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares, and in the short - term, the market will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. - The July non - farm payroll data indicates that the probability of a September interest rate cut in the US has increased, which is positive for gold, and currently, it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. - The iron ore market has strong fundamental support, and a low - buying strategy should be maintained [15][16]. - The supply - demand situation of glass has slightly improved, and the main driver is the improvement of the macro - environment. A low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19][20]. - Alumina has high volatility, and a low - buying strategy on dips should be maintained [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Supply: Some coal mines in production areas have reduced output due to accidents, safety inspections, and environmental inspections. The resumption of production in some coal mines in Shanxi Lvliang is slow, and Mongolian coal imports are affected by port closures [4]. - Demand: The steel industry has good profitability, with a comprehensive profitability rate of nearly 60%. High daily hot metal production supports the demand for coking coal, and the replenishment demand of coking enterprises and steel mills further drives up prices [4]. - Policy: The implementation of the new "Mineral Resources Law", the expected anti - involution work plan of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the price increase of coke by industry associations have also driven up coking coal prices [4]. - Outlook: If the over - production verification of coal mines is strictly implemented, the supply is expected to continue to shrink, and if demand remains the same, the price of coking coal 2601 is expected to remain strong. However, if Mongolian coal imports increase significantly or the hot metal production of steel mills peaks and falls, the upward trend will be under pressure [4]. 3.2 A - shares - Market performance: The three major A - share indexes opened higher in the morning, then冲高回落, and the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded in the afternoon and closed with a red doji [8]. - Driving factor: The year - on - year increase of 3.5% in China's goods trade imports and exports in the first 7 months is positive for A - shares [7]. - Operation strategy: In the short - term, it will mainly fluctuate upwards at a high level [7]. 3.3 Gold - Driving factor: The July non - farm payroll data is significantly lower than expected, especially the significant downward revision of May and June data, indicating that the US economy is not as strong as expected, and the probability of a September interest rate cut has increased, which is positive for gold [11]. - Market condition: The weekly adjustment is relatively sufficient, and it is in a short - term small - range platform oscillation [11]. 3.4 Iron Ore - Fundamental support: The improvement of steel mill profitability has maintained a high level of hot metal production, and the overall fundamental support is strong. Under the anti - involution sentiment, the state of the black industrial chain is relatively healthy, showing a resonance upward trend [15][16]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy [15]. 3.5 Glass - Supply - demand situation: The supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and the factory inventory has declined significantly, but the recovery of terminal deep - processing orders is still weak [20]. - Driving factor: The main driver is the improvement and continuous strengthening of the macro - environment under the expectation of domestic economic recovery [19]. - Operation strategy: The lower support is effective, and a low - buying strategy after stabilization is recommended [19]. 3.6 Alumina - Market characteristic: It has high volatility due to continuous themes and high capital enthusiasm [22]. - Event: EGA condemned the Guinea government for revoking the GAC mining license [22]. - Operation strategy: Maintain a low - buying strategy on dips [22].

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/08/07 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 焦煤回调结束，可以继续多吗？ 今日焦煤2601连续第三日大涨，引发市场高度关注。此次大涨并非偶然，而是由多因素共同作用。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，部分产地煤矿因井下事故、安全检查及环保稽查等影响产量。如山西吕梁等地部分煤矿复 产缓慢，蒙煤进口受口岸闭关影响，供应收紧。需求层面，钢铁行业盈利佳，钢厂综合盈利率近60%，铁 水日均产量高位，对焦煤需求形成有力支撑，焦化企业和钢厂补库需求进一步推高价格。 政策上，新版《矿产资源法》施行，工信部反内卷工作方案预期，以及行业协会对焦炭价格的上调，也带 动了焦煤价格。 展望后续，若煤矿超产核查严格执行，供应端收缩预期延续，需求端维持现状，焦煤2601价格有望保持强 势。不过，若蒙煤进口大幅增加，或钢厂铁水产量见顶回落，其上涨也将承压。投资者需紧密关注基本面 和政策 ...