Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Goldtrust Futures Daily, written by the Goldtrust Futures Research Institute on May 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Caustic Soda Market - From May 5th to 12th, 2025, the caustic soda price rose from 807 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 829 yuan/ton at the weekend, a significant increase of 2.73% and 4.94% compared to the same period last year [3] - The price increase is due to supply - demand factors (supply decreased due to enterprise maintenance, and demand was stable as downstream aluminum plants had high profits and high - load production) and macro factors (US tariff adjustments after the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks) [3][4] Group 3: Stock Index Futures - A50 rose sharply and the Hong Kong stock market soared. Technically, it remains strongly bullish in the short - term, and the trend continuation is favorable [7] - On Monday, the three major A - share indexes rose significantly due to the expected benefits of Sino - US negotiations, and the post - market joint statement of the Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks was positive [8] Group 4: Gold Market - Affected by the Sino - US tariff negotiations, gold adjusted further. The outer - market gold neared the low point, and Shanghai gold broke below the pre - holiday low. However, the overall pattern is still oscillatory, and it is expected that the downward adjustment space is limited, with strong support for Shanghai gold between 750 - 760 [10][11] Group 5: Iron Ore Market - In May, there is a large pressure of supply surplus due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and domestic demand is about to enter the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high iron ore valuations. But the market sentiment has turned positive due to the Sino - US economic and trade talks. Technically, it strengthened in oscillation today, with a large bullish candle on the daily chart, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory and bullish [14] Group 6: Glass Market - The continuous release of demand still awaits the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policy announcements. The Sino - US economic and trade talks brought significant positive news, changing the market sentiment. Technically, it rebounded slightly today, and the short - term thinking turns to oscillatory [17] Group 7: Soybean No.1 Market - The tight supply situation of imported soybeans has been rapidly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local - reserve soybeans provides some support for the anti - decline of the soybean No.1 futures market. Profit - taking funds are leaving the market, the position has been continuously decreasing, and technically, it shows signs of a phased peak [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is in a slump with prices dropping significantly and a weak outlook due to oversupply, cost - side factors, and the macro - economic environment. The technical indicators also show a bearish trend [3]. - The short - term strong characteristics of stock index futures remain obvious, continuing the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is expected this weekend [6][7]. - The medium - to long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is currently in a volatile pattern after a short - term technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and large previous gains [10][11]. - Iron ore faces a large supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the risk of high valuation is heightened as domestic demand turns to the seasonal off - season. The high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. - The demand for glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it hits a new low and the bearish view remains [17]. - The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures, but there are signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Market - Supply: Soda ash has seen rapid capacity expansion in recent years. New capacities such as Jiangsu Debang and Lianyungang Alkali Industry have entered the market, with continuous release of new capacity in 2025, resulting in abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Float glass demand has decreased due to the sluggish real - estate market, and the growth of photovoltaic glass has slowed down. The demand increment from other fields like lithium carbonate is small [3]. - Cost: The prices of upstream coal and raw salt have dropped, reducing the costs of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, and providing support for price decline [3]. - Macro - environment: Uncertainty in economic recovery has led to a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, reduced investor risk preference, and capital outflows from the futures market, pushing down soda ash futures prices [3]. - Technical analysis: MACD green bars are expanding, KDJ shows a death cross, the price has broken through the key psychological level, and short - term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a bearish market [3]. Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term strong characteristics are obvious, and it continues the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is awaited [6][7]. Gold - Long - term trend: The medium - to long - term upward logic remains unchanged. - Short - term situation: After a large increase, it is undergoing a technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and a large number of profit - taking positions. It is currently in a volatile pattern [10][11]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high valuation [14]. - Technical analysis: It had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. Glass - Demand: Demand needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The daily melting volume is low, the spot production and sales have improved slightly, but the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18]. - Technical analysis: It hit a new low today, and the bearish view remains [17]. Soybean No.1 - Supply - demand: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures [21]. - Technical analysis: Profit - taking funds are reducing positions, and the position has been continuously decreasing, showing signs of a phased peak [21].

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in alumina prices may be due to short - term market sentiment, capital speculation, and supply - side disturbances. Given the overall surplus pattern and the expected loose supply of ore, it is difficult to determine this as a reversal. It is likely a rebound if supply remains loose and demand shows no significant improvement [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] - Gold is in an overall oscillating pattern. The short - term decline is due to the ebb of避险情绪 and technical corrections, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11][12] - Iron ore faces high supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality exacerbates the high - valuation risk. A high - short strategy is maintained [15] - Glass is in a situation where daily melting is low, factory inventories are high, and demand is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies. A bearish strategy is maintained [20] - For soybeans, the supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, and the overall selling pressure in the soybean market has increased. The soybean futures market shows signs of a phased peak [23] Summary by Category Alumina - Fundamental analysis: The alumina market is in a surplus pattern. The previous rebound in the spot market was partly due to restocking in northern electrolytic aluminum production areas. Supply reduction is not significant, and the expected loose supply of ore weakens the logic of supply reduction [3] - Technical analysis: The previous alumina futures showed a BACK structure. Whether the May 8 increase can break the original oscillating pattern remains to be seen. If it fails to continue to rise with increasing volume and break through key pressure levels, it is likely a rebound [3] Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] Gold - Technical analysis: The external gold market has adjusted after a significant increase close to the previous high, and Shanghai gold has followed the decline. It is in an overall oscillating pattern. Short - term technical corrections are due to the ebb of避险情绪 and large accumulated gains [11][12] Iron Ore - Fundamental analysis: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to high supply surplus pressure, and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand exacerbates the high - valuation risk [15] - Technical analysis: A large negative line was closed today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [15] Glass - Fundamental analysis: The current daily melting is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Demand growth depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [20] - Technical analysis: The price hit a new low today, and the bearish strategy remains unchanged [20] Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for the soybean futures market [23] - Technical analysis: Profitable funds have reduced their positions, and the open interest has continuously declined, showing signs of a phased peak [23]

Group 1: Report Core View - The report analyzes the reasons for the sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum futures and provides technical analysis of multiple futures including stock index, gold, iron ore, glass, and caustic soda [3][7][11][15][18][23] Group 2: Reasons for the Sharp Decline of Shanghai Aluminum Futures - From the demand side, downstream demand is significantly weak. The procurement willingness of downstream processing enterprises remains low, and the demand growth of industries such as construction and automobile manufacturing for aluminum is slow. The consumption side shows no obvious signs of recovery. In Guangdong, although the supply of electrolytic aluminum remains tight, the demand side is dragged down by the decline in export orders, weakening the support for high prices [3] - In terms of supply, although the futures warehouse receipts continue to decline (recently about 149,000 tons), domestic production capacity is gradually being released, and the market supply is relatively sufficient, offsetting the benefits of inventory reduction [3] - Macroeconomically, international macro disturbances intensify. Weak domestic exports (from January to February, the export of wrought aluminum decreased by 11% year - on - year) suppress import demand, and the widening of the internal - external price difference intensifies the domestic selling pressure. The overall market sentiment is weak, and investors lack confidence in the aluminum price trend, which also promotes the price decline [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Different Futures Stock Index Futures - There are gaps in the market, and there are continuous policy benefits. In the short term, it is expected to continue the pattern of fluctuating upward [7] Gold Futures - In the short term, the risk - aversion sentiment recedes, and there are many profit - taking positions due to the large cumulative increase in the early stage, so it faces a technical correction. In the long - term, due to the damage to the US dollar credit, the upward logic remains unchanged. The external gold has risen sharply and is adjusting near the previous high, while Shanghai Gold is relatively weaker but remains in a strong oscillation pattern [11][12] Iron Ore Futures - In May, the reduction in downstream exports and the recovery of shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure. At the same time, domestic demand is about to turn to the seasonal off - season. The weak reality increases the risk of high valuation of iron ore. Technically, it rose and then fell today, and short - selling at high levels is recommended [15] Glass Futures - The continuous release of demand still depends on the effect of real - estate stimulus or the introduction of major policies. Technically, it opened high and closed low today, and the short - term thinking of fluctuating downward remains unchanged. Currently, the daily melting is at a low level. Although the spot production and sales have improved, the factory inventory is still at a high level, and the replenishment motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is not strong [18][19] Caustic Soda Futures - The market price is running at a low level, and there are no signs of improvement in downstream demand, especially the continuous production reduction in the alumina industry. However, manufacturers are highly motivated to ship. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [23]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the alumina futures price has been continuously declining, hitting new lows and breaking key support levels, mainly due to a serious imbalance between supply and demand. The subsequent trend depends on the direction of ore prices and the scale of production cuts [3][4] - The stock index futures market is calm without major negative factors, and the short - term is expected to continue the volatile and bullish pattern [7] - After the holiday, the A - share market had a good start, with small - cap stocks led by the CSI 1000 performing well, rising more than 2% [8] - The medium - and long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is more likely to be in a strong volatile trend, but it faces a short - term technical correction [11][12] - In May, the iron ore market has a large supply surplus pressure due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality increases the risk of high valuations. It is recommended to consider shorting at high levels [16] - The glass market needs the real estate stimulus effect or major policy to boost demand. The short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] - The caustic soda market price is running at a low level, with no sign of improvement in downstream demand. It is expected to be weak in the short term [22] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Alumina Futures - Supply: Multiple new domestic alumina production capacity projects have been put into operation, and overseas projects have also released capacity, increasing supply pressure [3] - Demand: The downstream electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the demand for alumina has limited growth, unable to absorb the excess supply [3] - Cost: The shipment of Guinea bauxite has increased significantly, and the import price has continued to decline. The cost support for alumina has weakened [3] Stock Index Futures - Market situation: There are no major negative factors, and today's large gap - up positive line indicates a short - term volatile and bullish pattern [7] Gold - Long - term: The medium - and long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11] - Short - term: There is a technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains [12] Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, downstream export reduction and shipment increase lead to a large supply surplus, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season [16] - Strategy: Consider shorting at high levels due to heavy upward pressure [16] Glass - Demand: Demand growth depends on real estate stimulus or major policies [19] - Market situation: The price hit a new low today, and the short - term is in a volatile and bearish trend [19] Caustic Soda - Market price: Running at a low level [22] - Demand: Downstream demand shows no sign of improvement, especially the continuous production cut in the alumina industry [22] - Outlook: Expected to be weak in the short term [22]

金信期货日刊 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 3 0 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂， 市场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供 大于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 2.在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 3.政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月29日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 9 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 豆油豆粕期价下跌，背后原因到底是什么? 2025年4月28日豆油豆粕期货价格暴跌，主要有以下几方面原因： 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 从供应端来看，巴西大豆丰产，4月起月均到港量预计大幅增加，且随着进口巴西大豆陆续到厂，市 场预计五一节后油厂开工率将恢复正常 ，这使得豆油供应不断增加，而需求增长却较为缓慢，供大 于求的局面给价格带来下行压力。 在需求层面，全球经济增长放缓，消费者购买力下降，餐饮业复苏缓慢，导致食用油整体需求减弱。 同时，棕榈油价格低位，豆棕价差倒挂，替代品竞争抑制了豆油的市场需求。 政策因素也不容忽视，美国生物柴油政策存在不确定性，影响了豆油在工业领域的需求预期。市场 担忧政策变化导致豆油需求减少，进而引发价格下跌。多种因素交织，最终造成了4月28日豆油期货 价格的暴跌。 | 主力动 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO., LTD - Daily Journal" - Date: April 28, 2025 - Research Focus: Analysis of the sharp decline in hog futures prices and technical analysis of various futures I. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report II. Core Viewpoints - The sharp decline in hog futures prices on April 24, 2025, was mainly caused by supply, demand, and market sentiment factors. Future hog supplies are expected to be sufficient, demand is weak, and previous bullish factors have been realized, leading to concerns about supply pressure and a subsequent price slump [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is crucial. Above this point, there is still upward momentum; below it indicates weakness [7] - Gold is facing a short - term technical correction due to the short - term ebb of risk - aversion sentiment and large accumulated gains. However, the long - term upward logic remains intact. The low point of the previous day is a key point [11] - Iron ore prices may be supported by short - term replenishment demand during the steel mill复产 cycle, but are constrained by long - term capacity expansion and other factors. The market is in a short - term wide - range shock [14] - Glass demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The short - term trend is bearish [17] - Due to the approaching end of the Brazilian new - season soybean harvest and a bumper harvest, the upward space for domestic soybean (bean one) prices is limited [20] III. Summary by Category 1. Hog Futures - **Supply Side**: Official data shows that the number of breeding sows increased until the end of December last year, indicating an upward trend in theoretical hog slaughter until the end of October this year. The number of newborn piglets in March this year was close to the high level in 2023, putting pressure on the September contract. The weight gain and supply shift caused by hog backlogging and secondary fattening from February to April will increase future supply pressure [3] - **Demand Side**: Despite the approaching May Day holiday, high hog prices have reduced consumer purchasing willingness, and some consumers have chosen alternative meats. Current consumption is in a off - season, and daily pork demand is stable, unable to drive up prices [4] - **Market Sentiment**: Previous bullish factors for hog futures prices have been realized, and concerns about supply pressure in the production - increasing cycle have intensified, leading to the price slump [4] 2. Stock Index Futures - Policy side: The Ministry has denied Sino - US tariff negotiation consultations. Technically, the short - term is a complex shock pattern, and the low point of the previous day is important [7] - Market performance: The three major indexes showed continued divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up and the Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext, and CSI 1000 closing down [8] 3. Gold Futures - Short - term: Risk - aversion sentiment has ebbed, and there are many profit - taking positions. It is facing a technical correction. - Long - term: The long - term upward logic remains intact due to the damaged US dollar credit. The low point of the previous day is a key point for judging the short - term trend [11] 4. Iron Ore Futures - Short - term: Steel mills are in the复产 cycle, and short - term replenishment demand may support prices. - Long - term: Constrained by capacity expansion. Trade frictions may indirectly affect exports and steel demand, and the lack of substantial positive news from the Politburo meeting has weakened market sentiment. The short - term is in a wide - range shock [14] 5. Glass Futures - Demand: Demand needs real estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Currently, daily melting is at a low level, spot sales have improved slightly, but factory inventories are still high, and downstream deep - processing orders have weak replenishment motivation [17][18] - Technical: The price closed down and broke the low again, with a short - term bearish trend [17] 6. Bean One Futures - Supply: The Brazilian new - season soybean harvest is nearly complete, and a bumper harvest is certain. Future exports will set a record, so domestic supply is not tight, and the upward space for bean one prices is limited [20]

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 5 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 2025年4月24日为什么黄金下跌而白银上涨？ 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.黄金价格下跌，主要是因为前期涨幅过大，积累了较多获利盘。4月22日现货黄金价格首次突破 3500美元/盎司的历史高位，大量投资者选择获利了结 ，引发抛售潮。同时，市场避险情绪降温，特 朗普改口称"无意解雇鲍威尔" ，缓解美联储独立性担忧，俄乌冲突也现缓和迹象，投资者不再大 量涌入黄金避险。另外，美元反弹，美联储释放"鹰派信号" ，美元指数回升至98.95，以美元计价 的黄金价格受到压制。 2.白银上涨则得益于自身供需关系的变化。在供应端，白银矿产开采增速缓慢，且回收量有限，导致 供应相对紧张。需求端却十分强劲，白银在工业领域应用广泛，在太阳能、电动汽车、半导体等行 业需求持续攀升。全球对清洁能源的重视，使得太阳能产业发展迅 ...

金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 5 / 0 4 / 2 4 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 黄金收阴线，价格到顶了吗？ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 1.首先，美元与美股反弹。当日美元指数单日上涨0.6%至98.95 ，因美国财长暗示贸易紧张局势缓和， 激发股市乐观情绪，美股回升，三大主要股指涨幅均超2.5%。美元的强势表现与美股对资金的吸引， 使得黄金的吸引力被削弱，部分资金从黄金市场流出，转向股市与美元资产。 2.其次，多头获利了结。此前黄金价格连续冲高，纽约商品交易所黄金期货在4月22日盘中一度升至 每盎司3509.90美元，首次突破3500美元关口。连续上涨积累了大量获利盘，在4月23日，部分投资 者选择高位套现，触发程序化交易抛售，大量卖盘涌现，导致黄金期货价格下跌。 3.最后，政策不确定性增加。特朗普政府对关税问题保持沉默，市场担忧美联储可能因政治压力调整 货币政策，这种不确定性加剧了市场短期波动，投资者观望情绪浓厚，减少对黄金期货的买入，促 使价格下行 。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需 ...