金融期货早评 宏观：国内出口数据边际下滑 【市场资讯】1）中国 8 月按美元计价出口同比增长 4.4%，进口同比增长 1.3%，集成电路 和汽车出口增长明显；大宗商品进口季节性复苏、原油铁矿石铜回升，大豆进口量创历史 新高，稀土量减价增，出口价值环比上涨 51%。2）特朗普称准备对俄罗斯实施第二阶段制 裁。3）美财长称若最高法院维持裁决，将被迫退还半数关税；贝森特给出"前瞻指引"：美 国经济将在四季度"大幅加速"，制造业"不能弹指一挥间建工厂"。4）一年内第三位法国总 理下台，贝鲁未通过信任投票，周二递交辞呈。 期，对美元指数形成压制。中国出口数据对美元兑人民币汇率的影响则偏中性：8 月以美 元计价的出口金额累计同比为 5.9%，较上月微降 0.2 个百分点；从国别出口结构看，出口 延续前期格局，非美市场仍是出口增长的主要驱动力，市场对此数据反应平淡。总体而言， 【核心逻辑】国内方面，需重点关注后续促服务消费政策的落地进展。此类政策将在一定 程度上衔接"以旧换新"等商品消费刺激举措，共同支撑社会消费品零售总额增速，但其最 终提振效果仍需进一步观察。8 月出口数据已公布，出口增速边际下滑，既受去年同期高 基数影 ...

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/08 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石10合约月度价格预测（9月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-830 | 20.24% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（9月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2510 | 空 | 45% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2510-C-830 | | 40% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2510 | 多 | 30% | 770-780 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌，若 ...

南华干散货运输市场日报 —当日，工业品发运需求大幅增加，支撑大船需求，运价指数跌幅收窄 2025年09月08日 尽管当周主流船型运价指数均环比下跌，但BDI运输市场走势跌幅缩窄，主要原因在于大船需求边际好转，令 大船运价指数跌幅收窄，BCI、BPI运价指数跌幅收窄至4%以内。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：玉米发运节奏加快，其中巴西、阿根廷农产品发运明 显增加；工业品中铁矿石、煤炭发运边际增量显著。 综合上述来看，大船需求边际好转，小船边际需求减弱，从而出现BCI运价指数跌幅收窄，BSI运价指数转弱 的情况。 BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 二、现货指数回顾 2.1.BDI运价指数分析：大船需求回升，运价跌幅收窄 与8月29日数据相比，主流船型运价指数均下跌，因此9月5日发布的运价数据显示，BDI综合运价指数继续走 弱，但跌幅有所收窄 ...

国债期货日报 2025/09/08 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 号 观点：波段思路 盘面点评： 周一期债多数低开，日内窄幅波动，短期品种微涨，长期品种收跌。现券收益率多数上行，长端上行幅度较 大。公开市场净投放88亿，资金面边际收紧，DR001上升至1.36%附近。 source： wind,南华研究 T主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 T基差：主连 T IRR：主连 % (右轴) 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 0 0.5 1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 TL主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TL基差：主连 TL IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 -1 0 1 -2 0 2 4 6 日内消息： 1.中国8月按美元计价出口同比增长4.4%，进口同比增长1.3%。 2.彭博：股市上涨引发担忧，中国降息前景存疑。 行情研判： 数据方面，8月进、出口增速明显放缓，双双低于预期，关税影响逐步显现，但目前债市焦点尚未回归基本 面。消息方面，彭博社报道 ...

南华期货集运产业周报 —— 黄金周空班计划公布，底部支撑显现 俞俊臣（投资咨询资格证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/09/07 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 当周影响EC价格走势的核心因素为欧线现舱报价与主流船司空班、关税的不确定性。延续此前逻辑，需 求季节性回落，当周主流船司9月上旬现舱报价持续下行，仍是利空期价的主要因素。但此外，部分主流船司 官宣黄金周停航计划，从供应角度给予欧线运价与期价以支撑；美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定，美国总统特朗 普实施的大部分全球关税措施非法，从宏观情绪角度短期利多期价走势。我们可以看到，EC价格与欧线现舱 报价价格整体虽仍呈现高度的正相关性，但相较而言，EC价格更显平稳。后期可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价 变动、船司动作和关税变化。 | 上海至鹿特丹小柜分船公司现舱报价 | | | | | | | | 上海至鹿特丹大柜分船公司现舱报价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has undergone a significant adjustment, and the implied volatility of financial options has decreased. The trading volume of 50ETF options has declined compared to the previous week, with the trading volume of put options lower than that of call options. The put - call trading ratio has increased compared to the previous week but is below the historical average, while the put - call holding ratio has decreased compared to the previous week but is above the historical average [1][2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Financial Option Data - **Trading Volume and Holdings**: The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options this week was 1.4576 million contracts, a decrease of 18.99% compared to the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.8, which increased compared to the previous week and was below the historical average. The put - call holding ratio last week was 0.85, which decreased compared to the previous week and was above the historical average. The average daily trading volume of Huatai Bairui 300ETF options was 1.5743 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 1.4231 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Southern China Securities 500ETF options was 2.1945 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 1.4044 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options was 2.1735 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 2.1941 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 0.2263 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 0.1551 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of GEM ETF options was 2.8928 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 1.6524 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1834 million lots, and the average daily holdings were 0.2248 million lots; the average daily trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 0.3718 million lots, and the average daily holdings were 0.3404 million lots [1][4]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 20.54%, a decrease of 3.19% compared to a week ago. The implied volatility of 50ETF options was 18.48%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to a week ago. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 25.51%, a decrease of 0.98% compared to a week ago [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the trading volume of commodity options increased by 24.24% compared to last week, and the open interest increased by 5.29%. The sentiment in the options market has warmed up compared to last week. At the same time, the implied volatility of options generally increased. The implied volatility of gold and silver options increased by more than 5 percentage points compared to a week ago, and they are currently at the 50%-60% and 70%-80% historical percentile levels respectively. Additionally, the main futures contract of polysilicon hit the daily limit, and the implied volatility of its options rose by more than 6 percentage points, currently above the 90% historical percentile level [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Commodity Option Data - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 28.09%, up 0.80% from a week ago; lithium carbonate options was 37.08%, up 0.56%; rebar options was 18.33%, up 6.65%; soda ash options was 19.79%, up 0.62%; gold options was 14.80%, up 0.62%; silver options was 26.40%, up 5.94%; palm oil options was 14.43%, down 0.81%; soybean oil options was 19.10%, down 0.04%; rapeseed oil options was 21.95%, up 3.56%; and rubber options was 11.23%, up 0.07% [1][4]. Figures - There are multiple figures showing the trading volume, open interest, implied volatility, historical volatility, skewness structure, and term structure of various commodity options, including crude oil, lithium carbonate, rebar, soda ash, gold, silver, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and rubber options [6][14][20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Group 1: Report Summary - The South China Comprehensive Index rose 18.21 points, a 0.72% increase this week. Gold and silver were the most influential varieties, with gold's index rising 3.82% and contributing 0.28%, and silver's index rising 4.51% and contributing 0.27% [1][2]. - The South China Industrial Products Index fell 2.38 points, a -0.07% decrease. Crude oil and PTA were the most influential, with crude oil contributing -0.12% and PTA -0.1% [1][2]. - The South China Metal Index dropped 12.24 points, a -0.19% decline. Lithium carbonate was the most influential, contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The South China Energy and Chemical Index decreased 2.4 points, a -0.14% fall. Crude oil was the most influential, contributing -0.17% [2]. - The South China Agricultural Products Index increased 3.42 points, a 0.31% rise. Palm oil was the most influential, contributing 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Weekly Data Overview - Table 1 shows the weekly data of South China commodity indices, including closing prices, changes, and other details for various indices such as the Comprehensive Index, Precious Metals Index, etc. [3]. - Table 2 presents the strength - weak arbitrage data of South China variety indices, including present values, previous values, changes, and rankings for different commodity comparisons [6]. - Table 3 provides the daily price changes, contribution to index price changes, average weekly holdings, and other data for each futures variety [8]. Group 3: Sector Index Analysis South China Industrial Products Index - The top six contributing varieties are crude oil, PTA, fuel oil, rebar, sintered ore, and tin [10]. South China Metal Index - The top three contributing varieties are lithium carbonate, rebar, and tin [10]. South China Energy and Chemical Index - The top three contributing varieties are crude oil, PTA, and fuel oil [10]. South China Agricultural Products Index - The top three contributing varieties are palm oil, corn, and soybean oil [10]. South China Black Index - The top three contributing varieties are iron ore, coke, and manganese - silicon [12]. South China Non - ferrous Index - The top three contributing varieties are lithium carbonate, tin, and alumina [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock market rebounded today, basically recovering yesterday's losses, and the market returned to trading in technology - related industries during the upward process. The stock index remained above the 20 - day moving average, with a positive sentiment today. It is expected that this moving average will continue to provide support in the future. The ADP data in the US yesterday was lower than expected, the US dollar index declined, and the US stocks rose, sending some optimistic signals before the market. However, today's overall trend showed obvious volume contraction, so it is expected that the upward momentum will not be as strong as in the previous upward trend stage. In the short - term, a volatile view on the stock index is maintained. If consumption - related policies are further introduced, it may trigger a new round of optimistic sentiment. Domestic inflation and financial data will be released next week, and attention should be paid to the changes in economic growth momentum conveyed by the data. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose with shrinking volume. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 2.18%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2395.99 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume [3]. Important Information - Policies and measures to expand service consumption are expected to be introduced soon. The new policies will focus on increasing the supply of high - quality services, including expanding inbound consumption, launching more high - quality inbound tourism routes and services, promoting the orderly opening of the Internet and culture fields, and promoting the inclusion of service consumption items such as camping, homestays, property services, and "Internet + medical" into the catalog of industries encouraged for foreign investment. - Apple's sales in the Indian market in the previous fiscal year reached a record 9 billion US dollars. - Hainan Free Trade Port plans to implement a wider - scope tourist visa - free entry policy [4]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 2.82 | 1.64 | 4.41 | 3.61 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 16.0241 | 6.5764 | 17.0326 | 30.3786 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.4542 | - 3.5666 | - 2.3753 | - 7.9453 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.8339 | 9.9744 | 24.8658 | 38.6798 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 2.0566 | - 1.1778 | - 1.2544 | - 1.7948 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.24 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 3.89 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 10.17 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 23046.59 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (billion yuan) | - 2395.99 | [6]