Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of precious metals is expected to continue rising in the medium and long term due to central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand. In the short term, precious metals have strengthened. For London gold, the resistance level is at 4150, and the support level is between 4000 - 4050. For silver, the support level is between 49.5 - 50, and the resistance level is at 52.5 [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, precious metal prices rose strongly. The potential end of the US government shutdown alleviated the current shortage of market liquidity and supported the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $4123.4 per ounce, up 2.83%; US Silver 2512 contract closed at $50.405 per ounce, up 4.7%. SHFE Gold 2512 main contract closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 2%; SHFE Silver 2512 contract closed at 11719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.85% [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 64.1%. The long - term SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1042.06 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 14 tons to 610 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons in the week ending October 31 [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. In terms of events, on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at 22:20; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on fintech at 23:00; US Treasury Secretary Bessent will speak at 23:45. On Friday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy at 01:15; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamark will participate in a fireside chat at 01:20; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy at 23:05. On Saturday, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat at 03:30 [4] Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE Gold Main Continuous contract is at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.6%; SGX Gold TD is at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68%. CME Gold Main contract is at $4123.4 per ounce, up 2.88%. SHFE Silver Main Continuous contract is at 11719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05%; SGX Silver TD is at 11726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14%; CME Silver Main contract is at $50.405 per ounce, up 4.52%. SHFE - TD Gold is at 2.96 yuan per gram, down 18.23%; SHFE - TD Silver is at - 7 yuan per kilogram, down 33.33%. CME Gold - Silver Ratio is at 81.8054, down 1.57% [6][7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE Gold inventory is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; CME Gold inventory is 1173.5181 tons, unchanged; SHFE Gold position is 136657 lots, down 3 lots. SPDR Gold position is 1042.06 tons, unchanged. SHFE Silver inventory is 609.978 tons, down 2.1%; CME Silver inventory is 14901.8329 tons, down 0.21%; SGX Silver inventory is 830.31 tons, down 8.28%; SHFE Silver position is 243217 lots, down 0.94%. SLV Silver position is 15088.632696 tons, unchanged [16] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US Dollar Index is at 99.6233, up 0.08%; the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan is at 7.1232, up 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 47368.63 points, up 0.81%. WTI crude oil spot is at $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%. LmeS Copper 03 is at $10874.5 per ton, up 1.68%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.13%, up 0.49%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.84%, up 0.55%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.56%, up 3.7% [22]

金融期货早评 宏观：美国政府结束关门在望 【市场资讯】1）国办发文提出 13 项措施进一步促进民间投资，扩大准入、打通堵点、强 化保障。2）中国两部门：优化论证新能源配置及送出消纳方案，促进"沙戈荒"新能源基地 实现规模化就地消纳。3）美国政府关门或再持续数天，参院关键程序性投票通过临时拨款 法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。4）媒体称美国接近将 39%瑞士关税砍到 15%， 特朗普称设法略降瑞士关税，接近达成协议降低印度关税。5）特朗普"钦点"的美联储理事 米兰：政府关门不会影响我对美国经济的看法，12 月应降息 50 基点。6）私营行业数据： 美国 10 月消费品价格涨幅三个月来首次放缓。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，物价指数边际回升，其背后更多受低基数效应、反内卷等因素驱 动。出口同比增速受基数扰动回落显著，在出口对经济的拉动作用边际放缓的背景下，提 振内需或将成为后续政策的重要发力方向。上周海外市场核心看点集中于流动性阶段性紧 张、美国政府超长停摆及美元指数反弹三大方面。目前美国政府停摆有望终结：参院关键 程序性投票通过临时拨款法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。若相关程序顺利推进， 美国政府最早或于 ...

股指期货日报 2025年11月10日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 3. 中国10月CPI 同比上涨0.2%，PPI同比下降2.1% 策略推荐 基本面释出积极信号，但市场避险情绪仍存 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.35%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升1754.01亿元。 期指方面，IM缩量上涨，其余品种均放量上涨。 重要资讯 1. 特朗普称政府停摆接近结束 2. 中国10月以美元计价出口同比下降1.1%，进口同比增1.0% 核心观点 周末公布部分经济数据，出口同比转负，主要受假期、高基数效应以及外需阶段性回调影响，物价数据方 面，CPI同比转正，核心CPI 同步回升，服务消费贡献抬升，食品CPI同比拖累减轻，反映国内消费需求边际 修复；PPI同比延续回升态势，跌幅较9月进一步收窄，主要源于上游行业价格持续回升，反内卷式政策已有 初步成效，静待价格传导向下游扩散。物价数据向好提振市场对经济修复的信心，受此影响今日白酒、美容 护理、零售等大消费板块领涨，指数整体放量偏强。不过期指基差除IH合约外其余均贴水加深，叠加红利指 ...

铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/11/10 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石12合约月度价格预测（11月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-826 | 20.05% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（11月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2512 | 空 | 25% | 820-830 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2512-C-830 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2512 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: November 10, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) [1] - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Analysis Market Performance - On Monday, bond futures opened lower and then quickly rebounded. T and TL contracts rose during the mid - day session but then declined. Except for TS which slightly fell, other varieties closed higher [1]. - The funding market tightened, with DR001 rising to 1.48%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 11.99 billion yuan, with a net injection of 4.16 billion yuan [1]. Important Information - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown [2]. Market Outlook - The A - share market rose slightly today with increased trading volume, but the bond market was not significantly affected [3]. - The inflation data for October released over the weekend showed some improvement, which might be the reason for the lower opening of bond futures. However, the sustainability of inflation improvement is questionable, and it does not currently pose a major negative impact. The bond market is generally strong [3]. - This week, attention should be paid to the upcoming release of data such as October social financing, investment, and consumption. The market's overall expectations for these data are not high [3]. - Maintain a mid - term optimistic view on the bond market. Hold mid - term long positions and consider taking profits on short - term long positions as appropriate [3]. Group 3: Data Summary Contract Price and Position Changes | Contract | Price on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Price on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Price Change | Position on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Position on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Position Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS2512 | 102.466 | 102.472 | - 0.006 | 85,232 | 83,418 | 1,814 | | TF2512 | 105.93 | 105.92 | 0.01 | 172,702 | 175,280 | - 2,578 | | T2512 | 108.485 | 108.475 | 0.01 | 291,294 | 289,749 | 1,545 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 116.03 | 0.27 | 184,847 | 180,551 | 4,296 | [6] Basis and Transaction Volume Changes | Contract | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Basis (CTD) on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Basis Change | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 10 | Transaction Volume on 2025 - 11 - 07 | Volume Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | TS | - 0.0267 | - 0.0403 | 0.0136 | 24,929 | 26,289 | - 1,360 | | TF | - 0.025 | - 0.0264 | 0.0014 | 49,109 | 44,485 | 4,624 | | T | 0.0205 | 0.0795 | - 0.059 | 58,830 | 54,915 | 3,915 | | TL | 0.1987 | 0.0885 | 0.1102 | 96,097 | 99,783 | - 3,686 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel mills' profitability has continued to decline, falling below 40% this week. Pig iron production has slightly decreased due to the decline in steel mills' profitability and is expected to continue this downward trend. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline, and the inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally. Ferroalloys also have high inventory levels, facing significant pressure to reduce inventory. After the macro - sentiment settles, ferroalloys will return to the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but the price will be supported by the cost side. It is expected that ferroalloys will fluctuate [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - **Silicon iron**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.75% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.8% [3]. - **Silicon manganese**: The monthly price range is predicted to be 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.62% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 4.4% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is concern about a decline in ferroalloy prices, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to sell SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 15%. The suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250 and SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and there is a need to purchase according to orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy SF2601 and SM2601 futures contracts with a hedging ratio of 25%. The suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300 and SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Contradiction between high inventory and weak demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. Downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and ferroalloy inventory is at a high level. Both silicon iron and silicon manganese enterprise inventories are at their highest levels in the past 5 years. Silicon manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 1.5% month - on - month, and silicon iron enterprise inventory has increased by 9.3% month - on - month, facing significant inventory pressure [4]. - **Challenge of cost support**: Recently, the correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices has been gradually weakening. The increase in coking coal prices has not driven up ferroalloy prices [4]. - **Contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality**: The anti - involution tone remains, and the market still has some enthusiasm. There are still certain expectations for supply - side contraction, but the high inventory of ferroalloys and weak downstream demand remain unchanged. The market's long - and short - term logic lies in the game between strong expectations and weak reality, and there is a high risk of a price increase followed by a decline due to the lack of substantial action [4]. 3.4利多 and 利空解读 - **Positive factors**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", which mentions that the capacity replacement ratio for ironmaking and steelmaking in each province (autonomous region, municipality) should be no less than 1.5:1. The fourth round of price increases for coke has started. In October, China exported 828,000 vehicles, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 6.513 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 23.3%. In October, China exported 443 ships, and from January to October, the cumulative export was 5660 ships, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 20.5%. In the first 10 months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 13.43 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7% [6]. - **Negative factors**: The steel market is in the peak season but with weak performance. The profitability of steel mills has declined significantly, and the negative feedback pressure is gradually increasing. Pig iron production has continued to decline. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. The consumption side lacks driving force, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [6]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Silicon iron**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 26, with a daily increase of 60 and a weekly decrease of 56. The warehouse receipts were 7197, with a daily increase of 1498 and a weekly increase of 2688 [6]. - **Silicon manganese**: On November 10, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 38 and a weekly decrease of 28. The warehouse receipts were 16357, with a daily increase of 1999 and a weekly increase of 6337 [7][8].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14. Towards the end of the year, the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate may show a "shifting bottom in fluctuations" trend [3]. - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the repair of the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - For treasury bonds, it is recommended to buy on dips, with mid - term long positions held and empty positions bought in batches on dips [5]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and it is advisable to pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities on dips [9]. - Copper prices will continue to seek a balance point, with different fluctuation ranges depending on downstream procurement volume [12]. - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, alumina to operate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy to fluctuate at a high level [13][14][16]. - Zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly, tin to fluctuate narrowly, and lithium carbonate futures to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to fluctuate widely, and lead to fluctuate mainly [19][20]. - Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, and iron ore prices are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - Coking coal and coke prices may face short - term adjustments, and ferroalloys are expected to fluctuate [26][27]. - Crude oil is in a narrow - range fluctuation, LPG is expected to fluctuate strongly, PX - PTA is expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, and MEG - bottle chips are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [30][34][35]. - Methanol 01 is looking for support, PP is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, PE is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [38][40][43][44]. - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level, and urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term [45][46][47]. - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, the reality is weak but the cost is strong. Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [48][53]. - For live pigs, it is waiting for the bottom - building, and for oilseeds, attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report [55]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's price index has marginally rebounded. The export growth rate has significantly declined due to base disturbances, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: In the previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower. In October, China's foreign trade maintained growth, and the foreign exchange reserve and gold reserve increased [2]. - **Core Viewpoints on Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101, and the US dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to operate between 7.09 - 7.14 [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed slightly lower in the previous trading day. It is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, focusing on the domestic fundamentals and overseas liquidity [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell back after high - level fluctuations last week. It is recommended to buy on dips [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market fluctuated narrowly last week. It is in a short - term adjustment phase, and mid - term buying opportunities on dips should be noted [7][9]. - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated last week. Macro factors are bearish, and the price will continue to seek a balance point [9][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, alumina is in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum prices [13][14][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fluctuated strongly last week, with a certain upward drive [16]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly, with a stable 290,000 yuan pressure level and high - level consolidation expected [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate futures price strengthened last week. It is expected to fluctuate strongly between 77,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [17]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are expected to fluctuate widely, with a weak fundamental situation [18][19]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuated narrowly, and are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short term [20]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They fell weakly last week. Steel products are expected to fluctuate within a range, with high de - stocking pressure on coils [21][23]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are under pressure from both macro and fundamental aspects and are expected to continue a weak trend [23][26]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The prices may face short - term adjustments, and coking coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black metal sector in the medium - to - long term [26]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to fluctuate, with high inventory and weak demand [27]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is in a narrow - range fluctuation, with weak short - term momentum and long - term pressure [30]. - **LPG**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, but lacks further upward drive [30]. - **PX - PTA**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly with the cost side, but the PTA oversupply situation is difficult to change [31][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: They are difficult to break downward in the short term but are under long - term pressure [35]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 is looking for support, with port pressure difficult to relieve [38]. - **PP**: It is expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with high supply and weak demand [39][40]. - **PE**: It is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with a difficult - to - change supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [43]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: They are expected to fluctuate at a low level without upward momentum [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to consolidate at a low level [45][46]. - **Urea**: Urea prices are expected to be stable and strong in the short term, with high supply but supported by export policies [47]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The reality is weak but the cost is strong, with different trends for each [48][50]. - **Paper Pulp & Offset Paper**: Paper pulp may fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate [53]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to maintain a weak pattern, with a loose supply situation [54]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building, and the long - term can be bullish, but the medium - and short - term are based on fundamentals [55]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the release of this week's USDA report, with the import of soybeans and the supply and demand of domestic soybean meal having their own characteristics [55].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Newly - harvested soybeans show a collision between a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South, with a decline in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After a price increase in October, the price is stagnant, but the state reserve purchase limits the downside. In the long run, the price center of domestic soybeans may shift upward [1][5] - Near - term trading logic involves price stagnation, reduced enthusiasm for mid - and downstream purchases, and sentiment suppression from potential US soybean imports. Long - term, high - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the price of domestic soybeans may break out of the bottom - range oscillation [1][3] - The seasonal reversal in October laid the foundation for the new - season listing cycle of domestic soybeans, and in the long term, the price may break through the bottom - range oscillation and the price center may rise significantly [5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The co - existence of a bumper harvest in the Northeast and disasters in the South has led to a decrease in the proportion of high - protein soybeans. After the price increase in October, it is currently stagnant. The state reserve purchase limits the price decline, and there is a lack of factors to drive further price increases [1] - The new changes in the domestic soybean market may change the bottom - range oscillation trend. High - protein soybean prices are expected to remain firm, and the consumption progress of medium - and low - protein soybeans will affect the price rhythm [1] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - For the 01 contract, short - term hedging above 4100 should be held, and long - term procurement can wait for a price decline to enter the market [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management, planting entities can short the A2601 contract above 4100 to lock in profits with a 30% hedging ratio - For procurement management, those worried about price increases can mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [6] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Some branches of Sinograin started purchasing new - season domestic soybeans this week, and there was no auction arrangement [7] - **Negative Information**: On November 10, 30,969 tons of domestic soybeans were auctioned, suppressing price increase sentiment. The resumption of US soybean imports is becoming clearer, which will compete with medium - and low - protein domestic soybeans [3][8] 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Whether the rhythm of US soybean imports can be further clarified - Whether selling pressure will emerge after the price stagnation - The release of the latest US Department of Agriculture production and supply - demand report on November 14 - The trading results of the domestic soybean auction on November 10 [10][11] Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The weekly price of soybeans first fell and then rose, with a slight increase in the weekly line. The trading volume continued to expand, the open interest decreased slightly, and the registered warehouse receipts increased to 10,556 lots [11] - The basis weakened slightly as the spot price stagnated and the futures price rose slightly - The 03 and 05 contracts were weak, the 01 contract was strong, and the overall monthly spread change was not significant [16][19] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the profit of 39 - protein clean grain has increased significantly compared to last year. Mid - stream trading enterprises have a stronger willingness to stockpile, but the profit of building storage is uncertain. Down - stream demand is more active, and high - protein soybeans are in short supply. The crushing profit has only small changes, resulting in a neutral purchasing attitude of oil mills [27] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - The supply of high - protein soybeans has decreased, and it will gradually tighten in the next 10 months. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans has increased. Attention should be paid to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the changes in the purchasing intensity of oil mills [31] 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - In November, the edible consumption of domestic soybeans is picking up, mainly for high - protein soybeans. Down - stream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the price of high - quality soybeans [32] - The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the prices of soybean meal and soybean oil. Attention should be paid to the arrival quantity in December and the soybean meal price to see if the crushing demand can increase as it did last year [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - The market pattern shows signs of being at the end of its strength. Whether it's non-ferrous metals, weak industrial products, or some agricultural and sideline products (such as US soybeans, eggs, and pigs), their fundamental data has been fully traded and priced. Futures prices are based on future dynamic fundamentals rather than long - standing static fundamentals. Two types of varieties can be focused on: those with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase in position, volume during a decline and are resistant to falling [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Condition - After the supplementary decline in the market, some industrial products are at the end of their decline. For example, alumina has low trading volume, small market divergence, and reduced price volatility; glass has large intraday position - increase and decrease amplitudes but limited price fluctuations, indicating strong resistance to decline and tenacious resistance from long - positions. Static fundamental data of these varieties has been poor for a long time and has been fully digested by prices. Using static fundamentals for strategy deduction may yield mediocre results [4]. - Recently, polyolefin varieties have experienced supplementary declines. In the context of weak macro - demand, methanol suppliers will increase production until profits are low or even in the red. Regarding US soybeans, although China's expected purchase of 12 million tons at the end of the year may drive a price rebound, the reality of oversupply remains, limiting the rebound space. A significant and continuous increase in US soybeans requires a reduction in supply, and there is a high risk of chasing up soybean meal prices [4]. Product Recommendation - Abandon market prediction and rely on strategies. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products push daily reports, recommend trading varieties, and provide exit rules. They can be subscribed to via the path [Nanhua Futures app - Research Report Selection - Strategy Research Selection], and both products offer free trials [5]. Data Tables - **Hot - variety price change ranking**: A table shows the ranking of price changes of popular varieties, but specific data is not presented [7]. - **Sector fund flow**: The total amount of funds has a net outflow of 2.26 billion. Among sectors, precious metals have an outflow of 396 million, non - ferrous metals 394 million, while black metals have an inflow of 804 million, energy 234 million, chemicals 1.571 billion, feed and breeding 1.052 billion, oils and fats 524 million, and soft commodities 526 million. The corresponding percentage changes are - 6.2%, - 4.9%, - 6.7%, 17.9%, 15.7%, 48.6%, 50.5%, 11.6%, and 31.6% respectively [9]. - **Black and non - ferrous weekly data**: The table provides price, inventory, valuation, position, position - change, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous varieties, such as iron ore, steel rebar, and copper, with data presented in percentile form [9]. - **Energy and chemical weekly data**: Similar to the above, it shows relevant data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural product weekly data**: It presents data for agricultural products including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12]. Charts - There are multiple charts showing the capital flow of different varieties and sectors, such as black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, and others, but specific chart content is not described in detail [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives an overall rating of "Weakly Bearish" for the crude oil market [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction in the crude oil market lies in the game between short - term geopolitical risk support and medium - to long - term supply - demand and macro - level bearish factors. The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market has become fatigued with relevant news, and the support is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and the market shows a characteristic of "falling with the trend but not rising", with the macro and fundamental factors jointly suppressing the market [1] - The near - term trading logic is dominated by the decline in geopolitical sentiment, the approaching spring maintenance of refineries, and the increase in US commercial crude oil inventories. The short - term trend is weakly bearish. The long - term trend is a downward oscillation due to the rigid supply pressure and limited demand growth [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestion 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical situation in Venezuela and Nigeria has not been resolved, but the market's reaction to relevant news is weakening. In the medium - to long - term, the double - bearish pattern of supply and demand remains unchanged, and combined with economic concerns caused by the US government shutdown, the market shows a "falling with the trend but not rising" characteristic [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestion - The market is in a weakly bearish oscillation. The strategy suggests to short the market when Brent rebounds to $66 - 68 per barrel, with a stop - loss at $70. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [7] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Bullish Information**: Two US B - 52 bombers approached the Venezuelan coast, and the US and Venezuela have tense relations recently [8] - **Bearish Information**: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling prices for Asian markets in December. The production of Kazakhstan's Karachaganak oilfield has increased by about 15% [9][10] 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - On November 10, 2025, at 24:00, a new round of refined oil price adjustment window will open. As of the ninth working day on November 7, this may provide short - term support for crude oil futures prices [12] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - This week, international crude oil prices oscillated slightly downward, falling below the short - term moving average. The previous week, the settlement price of the WTI main contract decreased by 2.02%, and that of the Brent main contract decreased by 2.21%. The INE crude oil futures position increased by 1,689 lots week - on - week, while the Brent crude oil futures position decreased by 65,844 lots week - on - week [14][17] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the SC - WTI spread was $4.37 per barrel. The SC - Brent spread was weakening, and the internal - market crude oil was relatively weaker under the background of OPEC+ production increase [22][23] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the monthly spreads of Brent, WTI, and SC all weakened. The recent spreads have given back most of the risk premiums due to fundamental suppression [25] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 7, the SC - Brent spread was $0.49 per barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $3.88 per barrel. The spread between SC and Brent has weakened again because the external - market crude oil is more strongly supported by geopolitical risk premiums [30] 3.4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of November 7, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively, while in North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the crack spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [42] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil production was 13.651 million barrels per day, up 0.7 million barrels per day week - on - week. From November 1 - 7, the number of active oil rigs in the US was 414, unchanged week - on - week [64] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US refinery crude oil input was 15.256 million barrels per day, up 3.7 million barrels per day week - on - week, and the refinery capacity utilization rate was 86.0%, down 0.6 percentage points week - on - week. From October 31 - November 6, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese independent refineries was 62.49%, up 0.11 percentage points week - on - week, and that of Chinese major refineries was 78.64%, down 1.86 percentage points week - on - week [66] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 31, US commercial crude oil inventories totaled 421,168 thousand barrels, up 5,202 thousand barrels week - on - week. As of November 5, the Chinese port commercial crude oil inventory index was 106.77, down 1.52% week - on - week [68] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 25 - 31, US crude oil exports were 4.367 million barrels per day, up 0.6 million barrels per day week - on - week. The Middle - East seaborne crude oil exports from October 21 - 27 were 16.7283 million barrels per day, up 1.90% week - on - week, while Russian seaborne crude oil exports this week were 3.3723 million barrels per day, down 12.98% week - on - week [70] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA has continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. OPEC has maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. The IEA has slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 [74][75]