南华期货尿素产业周报 ——多单持有 2026/1/25 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 * 远端交易预期 1.1 核心矛盾 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，尿素价格持续上涨。但伴随价格上行，下游逐步抵触，现货成交转弱， 预计尿素价格短期回调，顶部区间参考1850-1950之间，建议多单持有。 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2026 2 4 6 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose 56.87 points, a 2.08% increase. The most influential varieties were silver and gold, with the silver variety index having a change of 11.04% and a contribution of 0.67%, and the gold variety index having a change of 7.74% and a contribution of 0.57% [1][2] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 39.19 points, a 1.08% increase. The most influential varieties were PTA and nickel, with the PTA variety index contributing 0.37% and the nickel variety index contributing 0.25% [1][2] - The Nanhua Metal Index rose 99.62 points, a 1.38% increase. The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, with a contribution of 0.85% [1][2] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose 30.09 points, a 1.95% increase. The most influential variety was PTA, with a contribution of 0.55% [2] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 0.4 points, a -0.04% decrease. The most influential variety was live pigs, with a contribution of -0.53% [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Comprehensive Index NHCI | 2785.69 | 2728.81 | 56.87 | 2.08% | 2785.69 | 2723.27 | 62.42 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 2321.77 | 2128.42 | 193.35 | 9.08% | 2321.77 | 2128.42 | 193.35 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3660.83 | 3621.64 | 39.19 | 1.08% | 3660.83 | 3586.63 | 74.20 | | Metal Index NHMI | 7318.26 | 7218.64 | 99.62 | 1.38% | 7318.26 | 7170.98 | 147.28 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1572.97 | 1542.88 | 30.09 | 1.95% | 1572.97 | 1528.77 | 44.19 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 2109.97 | 2049.28 | 60.69 | 2.96% | 2109.97 | 2048.38 | 61.59 | | Black Index NHFI | 2566.01 | 2579.80 | -13.80 | -0.53% | 2579.80 | 2530.10 | 49.70 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1061.11 | 1061.51 | -0.40 | -0.04% | 1062.99 | 1052.34 | 10.65 | | Su Ni Comprehensive Index NHCIMi | 1201.71 | 1185.84 | 15.87 | 1.34% | 1201.71 | 1181.00 | 20.71 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 988.87 | 977.72 | 11.16 | 1.14% | 988.87 | 968.59 | 20.28 | | Petrochemical Consumption NHPCI | 956.07 | 906.92 | 49.15 | 5.42% | 956.07 | 906.36 | 49.71 | | Coal - based Chemical Engineering AHCCI | 961.61 | 932.45 | 29.16 | 3.13% | 961.61 | 923.88 | 37.74 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1070.50 | 1080.73 | -10.23 | -0.95% | 1080.73 | 1052.68 | 28.05 | | Building Materials Consumption NHBMI | 695.46 | 699.60 | -4.14 | -0.59% | 699.60 | 684.24 | 15.36 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl | 1226.28 | 1215.67 | 10.61 | 0.87% | 1229.00 | 1209.21 | 19.79 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 930.56 | 932.97 | -2.41 | -0.26% | 932.97 | 921.45 | 11.53 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The table shows the comparison of Nanhua commodity indices, including the present value, previous value (last week), change, and ranking of various index ratios such as precious metals index/comprehensive index, industrial products index/comprehensive index, etc. Blue - marked varieties have a ranking (i.e., percentile) less than 0.1 or greater than 0.9 [9] 3.3 Nanhua Sector Index Weekly Data 3.3.1 Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The most influential varieties were PTA and nickel. PTA had a closing price of 565.73 this week, a previous - week closing price of 521.08, a change rate of 8.57%, and a contribution of 0.37%. Nickel had a closing price of 1937.48 this week, a previous - week closing price of 1849.07, a change rate of 4.78%, and a contribution of 0.25% [14] 3.3.2 Nanhua Metal Index - The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, with a closing price of 683.50 this week, a previous - week closing price of 550.51, a change rate of 24.16%, and a contribution of 0.85% [14] 3.3.3 Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index - The most influential variety was PTA, with a closing price of 565.73 this week, a previous - week closing price of 521.08, a change rate of 8.57%, and a contribution of 0.55% [14] 3.3.4 Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - The most influential variety was live pigs, with a closing price of 199.54 this week, a previous - week closing price of 206.70, a change rate of - 3.46%, and a contribution of - 0.53% [14] 3.3.5 Nanhua Black Index - The most influential variety was iron ore, with a closing price of 7453.48 this week, a previous - week closing price of 7612.86, a change rate of - 2.09%, and a contribution of - 0.64% [15] 3.3.6 Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index - The most influential variety was lithium carbonate, with a closing price of 683.50 this week, a previous - week closing price of 550.51, a change rate of 24.16%, and a contribution of 1.47% [17] 3.4 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - The table shows the average holding volume this week, the average holding volume last week, the month - on - month increase, and the holding volume ratio of various futures varieties such as soybean meal, silver, and rebar [19]

Group 1: Macro - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil reshaping the order, domestic structural differentiation, and precise policy - driven stable growth. The old US - led global system is accelerating towards a fragmented end, with the failure of multilateral order and intensified great - power competition becoming the norm [1]. - The US and Europe's game over Greenland has escalated, with the US threatening tariffs on 8 European countries and the EU responding with counter - lists and freezing trade agreements. Swedish and Danish pension funds have cleared US bonds, impacting the traditional safe - haven status of US bonds [1]. - The US core PCE物价指数 in November 2025 met market expectations, indicating no significant rebound in inflation. The Fed is likely to maintain the current interest rate in the January meeting, and may keep rates stable until Powell's term ends in May 2026 [1]. - Japan's central bank policy is highly concerned. It is expected to maintain the current interest rate and hawkish tone, and Governor Ueda may explain this as an assessment of last year's interest - rate hikes [1]. - China's economy in 2025 ended with a pattern of "strong supply, stable external demand, and weak domestic demand". In 2026, the GDP growth target is expected to be 4.5% - 5%, and expanding domestic demand is the core of stable growth [1]. Group 2: RMB Exchange Rate - Overseas, the strong US economic data boosts market risk appetite and depresses interest - rate cut expectations, but the US dollar index lacks upward momentum due to factors like Nordic pension funds' withdrawal [2]. - Domestically, the central bank's unexpected 900 billion yuan MLF operation and the indication of room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts in the year push up the US dollar - RMB exchange rate in the short term, but the expected high corporate settlement willingness may lead to a subsequent decline [2]. - In the future, the RMB has a solid foundation for trend - based appreciation. Its appreciation space depends on the US dollar index and the central bank's exchange - rate control orientation [2]. - Short - term strategy: Export enterprises can lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [3]. Group 3: Stock Index - The previous trading day saw a differentiated performance in the stock index. The large - cap index was weak in the morning and fluctuated in the afternoon, while the small - and medium - cap index fluctuated throughout the day. Except for the Shanghai 50 index, other indices closed up [4]. - Short - term, the index is in an adjustment phase with significant style differentiation, but the medium - and long - term bullish logic remains unchanged. Small - and medium - cap indices are expected to outperform [4]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, the bond market was lackluster and oscillated. The trading - oriented funds retreated, and the market is cautious about the short - term bond market space [5]. - The central bank will conduct a 900 billion yuan MLF operation, and attention should be paid to whether the capital interest rate will decline and stabilize at a low level [5]. - Medium - term, hold long positions; short - term, stay on the sidelines [5]. Group 5: Container Shipping to Europe - The container shipping index (Europe line) futures market showed a differentiated trend, with near - month contracts under pressure and far - month contracts relatively resilient [5][6][7]. - Bullish factors for far - month contracts include the uncertainty of the Red Sea route's full resumption and potential rush - shipping demand in March [6]. - Bearish factors include the decline in spot freight rates and the reduced risk of short - term trade frictions [6]. - Strategy: Trend traders can conduct range operations, short near - month contracts at the upper end of the range and go long at the lower end, and be cautious about chasing far - month contracts [7]. Group 6: Commodities - New Energy Lithium Carbonate - The main lithium carbonate futures contract closed up, with increased trading volume and open interest. The spot market showed general performance, with rising prices of lithium ore and lithium salts [10]. - The addition of new registered brands on the GZEX is expected to strengthen the basis of lithium carbonate spot and narrow the spread between contracts [10]. - Before early February, consider going long on dips; before the Spring Festival, reduce positions to avoid risks [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts showed different trends. The industrial silicon spot market was general, while the photovoltaic industry chain spot market weakened [11][12][14]. - In April, the rush - export market in the photovoltaic and organic silicon fields is expected to drive up the demand for industrial silicon. For polysilicon, the industry is mainly focused on destocking [14]. - Strategy: Go long on industrial silicon on dips and short polysilicon on rallies. Reduce positions before the Spring Festival [14]. Group 7: Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals Copper - The copper price fluctuated narrowly at a key level. The inventory of copper in major exchanges showed different changes, and the spot market had general trading [16][17]. - The capital inflow into the chemical and agricultural product sectors was obvious, and the non - ferrous sector was weak. The copper price faced resistance at 100,000 yuan [18]. - Strategy: Do not open new positions above 100,000 yuan; hold existing long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [19]. Aluminum - The aluminum price showed a certain degree of volatility. The supply of aluminum increased, and the demand weakened before the Spring Festival, with inventory accumulation [20][21]. - Short - term, the aluminum price will oscillate; medium - and long - term, it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to dips for entry [21]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated narrowly during the day and was strong at night. The supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was weak, with inventory accumulation [22]. - Short - term, it will oscillate weakly. Aggressive investors can try short positions lightly, and holders can sell call options [23]. Nickel - Stainless Steel - The nickel - stainless steel market oscillated at night. The supply of nickel ore was affected by the rainy season, and the demand for stainless steel was supported by inventory reduction [24]. - Be cautious about the high - level callback of stainless steel [24]. Tin - The tin price oscillated widely during the day and was strong at night. The supply was affected by the slow resumption in Myanmar and Indonesia, and the demand was in the off - season [25]. - It will maintain high - level wide - range oscillation. Be cautious about entering the market [25]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply was stimulated by high prices, and the demand lacked new drivers, with inventory changes [25]. - It will oscillate, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [25]. Group 8: Commodities - Oils and Fats and Feeds Oilseeds - The external soybean market is expected to continue to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market may stop falling at a low valuation. The potential improvement in Sino - Canadian trade relations may change the pricing of rapeseed meal [27][28]. - Strategy: Reduce short positions in rapeseed meal [28]. Oils and Fats - The domestic oils and fats market showed a short - term weakening trend at night, but the overall upward trend remained. Pay attention to small - scale corrections [28]. - Palm oil is the strongest in the sector, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil may narrow [28][30]. Group 9: Commodities - Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - The high - sulfur fuel oil supply tension is easing, and the demand is mainly concentrated in the bunkering market. The long - term downward trend remains, but there is short - term support [31][32]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The crack spread remains low [33]. Asphalt - The asphalt market oscillated. The spot price was stable, and the futures price was affected by geopolitical factors. The supply and demand were weak, and the inventory increased [34]. - Strategy: Pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack spread long positions [34]. Group 10: Commodities - Precious Metals Platinum and Palladium - The prices of platinum and palladium rose at night. The market is affected by international political uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, and challenges to the Fed's independence [36][37]. - In the medium - and long - term, the bull market foundation for platinum and palladium remains. Be vigilant about the opening gap [38]. Gold and Silver - The prices of gold and silver reached new highs. The market is affected by the weakening of the US dollar system and geopolitical risk aversion [38]. - The precious metals market is in a bullish pattern. Gold has support at 4650, and silver has support at 86.5. Consider long positions on dips [39]. Group 11: Commodities - Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated strongly at night. The pulp price is affected by spot market conditions, port inventory, and European inventory [40]. - Strategy: Observe or go long on dips, and close short positions [40][41]. LPG - The LPG futures price rose. The supply was moderately low, and the demand was weakening, especially in the PDH sector. The inventory was changing [41][42]. - Be cautious about the upward risk [42]. PTA - PX - The PX and PTA futures prices rose strongly. The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is affected by device shutdowns. The demand for polyester is weakening [43][44][45]. - The PTA processing fee is expected to rise, but the space is limited. Wait for dips to go long [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol futures price oscillated strongly. The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening due to the decline in terminal orders. The inventory is at a certain level [46][47]. - The market is under pressure, and the long - term surplus expectation remains [47]. PP - The polypropylene futures price rose. The short - term supply is reduced due to device maintenance, and the demand has some support, but it is expected to decline seasonally [48][49]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [49]. PE - The polyethylene futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase after device restart, and the demand will face seasonal decline [50][51]. - The short - term fluctuation is dominated by macro - sentiment and cost [51]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene rose. The supply of pure benzene decreased and the demand increased, and the inventory showed changes. The supply of styrene was affected by unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction [51][52]. - Pay attention to the export increment of styrene, crude oil fluctuations, and the downstream's acceptance of high - priced raw materials [52]. Urea - The urea futures price rose. The supply is in an over - capacity stage, and the price is supported by export policies. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation [52][53]. - Hold long positions [53]. Glass - Soda Ash - The soda ash futures price rose. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has limited elasticity. The inventory is at a high level [54]. - The glass futures price rose. The supply and demand are weak, and the inventory needs to be digested [55]. Propylene - The propylene futures price rose. The supply decreased and the demand increased this week, and the price was supported by cost and supply - demand factors [55][56][57]. - Pay attention to geopolitical and device - related changes [57]. Group 12: Commodities - Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices oscillated at a low level. The production recovery is slowing, the consumption of rebar is fluctuating, and the inventory is in a certain state. The cost end has both support and pressure [57][58][59]. - The short - term price will oscillate, with the rebar 2605 contract in the 3050 - 3200 yuan range and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the 3200 - 3350 yuan range [57]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price recovered. The iron - making production is affected by safety inspections, the inventory is increasing, and the supply and demand are in a certain state [57][58][59]. - The price has fallen to release the premium, and the downward space is not extremely pessimistic [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke futures prices rose. The coking coal production is increasing, the import is changing, and the coking enterprises' profits are shrinking. The steel production may be affected by an accident [59][60][61]. - The coking coal price may face downward pressure in the medium - and long - term if certain conditions are met [61]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures prices rebounded. The supply and demand are weakening, and the inventory is changing. The price is supported by cost [61][62]. - They will oscillate at a low level [62]. Group 13: Commodities - Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig futures price rose. The spot price is changing, with the supply being strong and the demand being weak. The second - fattening may support the price at a low level [64]. - The 03 contract may oscillate upward [64]. Cotton - The cotton futures price showed different trends. The domestic cotton supply is increasing moderately, and the demand is supported by spinning capacity expansion. The price is affected by the internal - external spread [64][65][66]. - The cotton price is likely to rise, but be cautious about chasing high. Wait for dips to go long [66]. Sugar - The sugar futures price rose. The international sugar price is affected by the Brazilian sugar - making ratio, and the domestic sugar supply and demand are in a certain state. The spot price is falling [66][67][68]. - The domestic sugar price may fall if the international sugar price drops [68]. Eggs - The egg futures price rose. The supply is sufficient, and the demand for pre - festival stocking is weakening [68][69]. - The near - month contract may continue to rise before the stocking period ends [69]. Apples - The apple futures price rose. The spot price is stable, the pre - festival stocking is improving, and the inventory is decreasing [70][71]. - The price may rise further if the demand continues to improve and the inventory decreases more than expected [71]. Red Dates - The red date market is focused on demand. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The price is likely to oscillate at a low level [72]. - Pay attention to the pre - festival procurement [72]. Logs - The log futures price rebounded with reduced positions. The spot price is changing, and the inventory is at a certain level. The market sentiment is affecting the price [72][73][74]. - Conduct range operations and pay attention to the 3 - 5 positive spread opportunity [74].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Macro and Financial Futures** - The current macro - environment features global geopolitical turmoil and domestic structural differentiation with targeted policies for stable growth. The old US - led global system is ending, and the global financial market is in a risk - averse stage. China's economy is expected to achieve a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5% in 2026, and the government is working to boost domestic demand [1]. - The RMB exchange rate has a solid basis for appreciation due to China's export resilience and increased corporate willingness to settle foreign exchange. However, its appreciation process will be relatively moderate [2][3]. - The stock index is in an adjustment stage in the short - term, with a continued structural market. In the long - term, the logic of loose liquidity driving the market remains positive [4]. - The bond market is not recommended for short - term chasing as the upside is limited despite improved market sentiment [5]. - The container shipping European route futures are expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with near - month contracts weak and far - month contracts relatively resistant to decline [6][7][8]. - **Commodities** - Lithium carbonate is likely to show "off - season not off" characteristics in the spot market, and it is recommended to go long on dips before early February in the futures market [11][12]. - Industrial silicon is expected to have an upward - biased price due to increased demand for export and supply - side disturbances. Polysilicon is in a de - stocking phase with no clear upward driver [12][13]. - Copper prices continue to adjust with limited upward momentum. Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the long - term, while alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [15][17][19]. - Zinc prices are likely to be weak and volatile in the short - term. Nickel - stainless steel is expected to be strong with some fundamental support. Tin prices may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation. Lead prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [19][20][22]. - For oilseeds, the external soybean market is weak and volatile, while domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different outlooks. For oils, the sector is likely to be strong in the short - term, with palm oil being the strongest [24][25][26]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor fundamental situation but is supported by the Iran issue. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread. Asphalt is expected to oscillate with limited upside and downside [30][31][33]. - Precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern but may face short - term correction pressure. Gold and silver can be considered for mid - term long positions on dips [34][35]. - **Chemicals** - Pulp and offset paper markets are relatively bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. LPG shows an internal - external divergence. PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips have different supply - demand situations, and it is recommended to go long on PX and short on polysilicon [36][39][41]. - Methanol is affected by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to wait and see. PP is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation, and PE is in a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand [45][47][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene have improved supply - demand situations. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to go long with a light position. Urea is recommended to hold long positions [50][52][56]. - Soda ash is in a situation of increasing supply, and glass is in a supply - demand weak pattern. Propylene prices are driven by cost and are expected to be affected by geopolitical and device changes [58][59][60]. - **Black Metals** - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a low - level oscillation. Iron ore prices have fallen but have support below. Coking coal and coke prices are under pressure in the long - term. Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate at the bottom [61][62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - Hog prices are expected to decline slightly, and the supply - demand situation is still unbalanced. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate. Sugar prices are short - term weak. Rubber is expected to oscillate widely. Apples' future performance depends on demand. Jujubes are in a low - level oscillation. Logs are recommended for range - bound operations and long positions on dips [65][67][76] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro** - **Market Information**: Trump's statements on Greenland, central bank's payment settlement work meeting, and other geopolitical and economic events [1]. - **Core Judgments**: The global geopolitical situation affects the financial market, and China focuses on stable growth and boosting domestic demand [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate** - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar declined slightly. - **Core Logic**: China's export and corporate behavior support the RMB's appreciation, and the process is affected by the US dollar index and central bank policies [2][3]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy [3][4]. - **Stock Index** - **Market Review**: The stock index showed a differentiated performance, and the trading volume decreased. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitical risks, the market is in an adjustment stage with a structural market [4]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for short - term callbacks to increase positions [4]. - **Bond** - **Market Review**: The bond market showed a differentiated performance, and the money market was loose. - **Core Logic**: The bond market follows the stock market, and the upside is limited [5]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short - term [5]. - **Container Shipping European Route** - **Market Review**: The futures market showed a "near - weak, far - strong" pattern. - **Core Logic**: The market is in a game between weak current demand and long - term detour cost support [6][7]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Trend traders can wait or operate in a narrow range [8]. Commodities - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price increased, and the trading volume decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is general, and the prices of upstream and downstream products are rising [11]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on dips before early February and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures rose slightly, and polysilicon futures fell. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of industrial silicon is general, and the photovoltaic industry spot market is weak [12][13]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on industrial silicon and short on polysilicon, and reduce positions before the Spring Festival [13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper** - **Market Review**: Copper prices showed different trends in different markets. - **Industry Information**: Warehouse receipts and inventory changes, and Rio Tinto's production increase [15][16]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Do not build new positions above 100,000, hold long positions in the 90,000 - 95,000 range, and adjust positions flexibly in the 95,000 - 100,000 range [17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices oscillated, and alumina and cast aluminum alloy prices changed slightly [17]. - **Industry Information**: The spot market of electrolytic aluminum improved slightly [17]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillatory and strong, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong [18][19]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: Zinc prices showed a weak oscillation. - **Core Logic**: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is cold [19]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Weakly oscillate, and aggressive investors can try short - selling [19][20]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: Nickel and stainless steel prices rose. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market prices and inventory changes [20]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate strongly, and pay attention to the supply and demand situation [20][21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: Tin prices were volatile. - **Core Logic**: The supply is affected, and the demand is in the off - season [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Be cautious when entering the market due to high volatility [22]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: Lead prices oscillated in a narrow range. - **Core Logic**: The supply and demand are in a weak pattern [22]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate, and sell options to collect premiums [22][23]. - **Oils and Feeds** - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The external soybean market rebounded, and the domestic market was weak. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are different [24][25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Exit the M3 - 5 long - short spread, and hold a small short position in rapeseed meal [25][26]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The oils market continued to strengthen. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply and demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have different characteristics [26][27]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The oils sector is strong in the short - term, and pay attention to the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [27][28]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The fuel oil futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different situations [30][31]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a poor foundation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking spread [30][31]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The asphalt market price decreased slightly. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [31][32]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the asphalt market is expected to oscillate [32][33]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to long - short spreads, basis, and cracking long - positions [33]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold prices first rose and then fell, and silver prices were weaker [34]. - **Trading Logic**: Pay attention to geopolitical events, Fed policies, and other factors [35]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The precious metals are in an upward - biased pattern, and consider long positions on dips [35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The pulp and offset paper futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The port inventory of pulp increased, and the downstream demand was weak [36]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see, and consider long positions in offset paper at low prices [36]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The LPG futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [36][37]. - **Core Logic**: The internal and external markets diverge, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [37][38]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: The PX and PTA futures prices changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of PX and PTA are different [39][40]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of PTA and PX is complex, and the long - term pattern is good [40][41]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long on PX and PTA on dips [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Market Review**: The ethylene glycol futures price changed. - **Industry Performance**: The supply, demand, and inventory of ethylene glycol and bottle chips [41][42][43]. - **Core Logic**: The demand is under pressure, and the long - term pattern is bearish [43][44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The methanol futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the downstream profit was affected [45]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by geopolitics, the operation is difficult [45][46]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait and see [46]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The PP futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [46][47]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term supply - demand pattern is improved, but the long - term is uncertain [47][48]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate widely [48]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The PE futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decrease [48][49]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern is unfavorable [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The pure benzene and styrene futures prices increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [50][51][52]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand situation of pure benzene and styrene is improved [51][52]. - **Rubber** - **Market Review**: The rubber futures prices oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory and supply - demand changes [52][53][54]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by macro and supply - demand factors, the price oscillates widely [55][56]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Go long with a light position and pay attention to spreads [56]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The urea futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the market sentiment changed [56][57]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is affected by policies [57]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Hold long positions [57]. - **Glass - Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash** - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, and the supply is expected to increase [58]. - **Core Logic**: The supply is excessive, and the price is under pressure [58]. - **Glass** - **Market Review**: The glass futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory decreased, but the demand is weak [59]. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price has no trend [59]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The propylene futures price increased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand and inventory changes [59][60]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by cost and geopolitics, the supply - demand is balanced [60]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [60]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated, and the trading volume was low. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is neutral, and the price is affected by raw materials [61]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The price will oscillate in a certain range [61]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Review**: The iron ore price continued to fall. - **Core Logic**: The previous high valuation is being adjusted, but there is support below [62]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: The prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply is increasing, and the price is under pressure in the long - term [63]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Review**: The ferroalloys prices oscillated. - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is supported by cost [63]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate at the bottom [64]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs** - **Market Review**: The hog futures price decreased. - **Industry Performance**: The supply - demand is unbalanced, and the price is under pressure [65][66]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Pay attention to pre - festival stocking demand [67]. - **Cotton** - **Market Review**: The cotton futures price oscillated. - **Industry Performance**: The inventory increased, and the supply - demand situation is complex [67]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Oscillate and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [68].

| 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 166740 | 6240 | 3.89% | 4800 | 2.96% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 376418 | -74656 | -16.55% | -212601 | -36.09% | 手 | | 主力合约持仓量 | 427928 | 12577 | 3.03% | -24655 | -5.45% | 手 | | 加权指数合约收盘价 | 167131 | 6304 | 3.92% | 4713 | 2.90% | 元/吨 | | 加权指数合约成交量 | 492964 | -121292 | -19.75% | -593880 | -54.64% | 手 | | 加权指数合约持仓量 | 848112 | 16036 | 1.93% | -38206 | -4.31% | 手 | | LC2605-LC2607 | -620 | 240 | -27.91% | 120 | -16.22% | 元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Globally, the geopolitical landscape is undergoing adjustments, with the US - EU game as a key variable. The EU's freezing of the US - EU trade agreement approval process has led to a halt in bilateral economic and trade cooperation, triggering panic about a possible $4 trillion US debt sell - off by Europe. The traditional safe - haven status of US debt is challenged, and the financial market has entered a "safe - haven - dominated" stage. The US faces structural dilemmas, and global capital is shifting to diversified allocation. Domestically, in 2025, the economy showed structural differentiation. In 2026, with a GDP growth target of 4.5% - 5%, expanding domestic demand is the core focus. Fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support domestic demand, infrastructure investment, consumption stimulation, and industrial upgrading [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, the appreciation foundation of the RMB against the US dollar is solid, but the appreciation process will be relatively moderate, affected by the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation [3]. - For the stock index, although there are many external disturbances, the bottom support of the stock index is strong [4]. - For treasury bonds, the short - term upward trend of the bond market is mainly driven by the stock market adjustment, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. - For the container shipping European line, the short - term is expected to continue the volatile pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - For lithium carbonate, the spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state. It is recommended to wait for the market risk to be fully released before entering the market [10]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, in the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. - For copper, the exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to be cautious when building new positions above 100,000 yuan [16]. - For aluminum, the short - term is affected by emotions and may fluctuate and correct, but there is upward space in the medium - long term; for alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; for cast aluminum alloy, it has strong follow - up to aluminum and is recommended to pay attention to the spread [18]. - For nickel - stainless steel, it is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing if the trade relationship improves [23]. - For oils, they are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. - For fuel oil, the high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - For asphalt, it will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. - For platinum and palladium, the bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - For gold and silver, gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. - For pulp - offset paper, the pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - For LPG, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - For PTA - PX, the short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - For MEG - bottle chips, the demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - For methanol, the geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - For PP, it is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - For PE, it is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - For pure benzene - styrene, the supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - For rubber, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [53]. - For glass and soda ash, the supply - demand expectation is weak [55][56]. - For propylene, the supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, they are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the price range is recommended [58][59]. - For iron ore, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and the price is affected by macro expectations [60]. - For coking coal and coke, the disk is weak, and the long - term price may be under pressure if the macro situation changes [62]. - For live pigs, the cold wave has put pressure on the northern pig prices [63]. - For cotton, it is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and orders [65]. - For sugar, it is expected to fluctuate under pressure, and attention should be paid to the production progress in Thailand and India [67]. - For eggs, the price is expected to be stable overall with local adjustments [69]. - For apples, the near - term contracts are affected by weak demand, and the far - term contracts are less affected. Attention should be paid to the stocking situation [74]. - For red dates, the short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to downstream procurement [75]. - For logs, although the price has broken through, it does not have the condition to continue to fall sharply. It is recommended to operate in the range of 750 - 795 [76]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market Information**: The EU has frozen the US - EU trade agreement approval process; the ADP weekly employment report shows an average increase of 8,000 private - sector jobs per week; there are issues related to Greenland; domestic fiscal and financial policies are coordinated to promote domestic demand; the US Treasury Secretary reveals the progress of nominating the next Fed Chairman [1]. - **Core Judgments and Transmission Logic**: Geopolitical changes have led to a "safe - haven - dominated" global financial market. Domestically, expanding domestic demand is the focus in 2026, and fiscal and monetary policies are coordinated to support the economy [2]. - **Exchange Rate Analysis**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation against the US dollar, but the process will be moderate, affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Export enterprises are recommended to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises are recommended to adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index closed down collectively, and the trading volume increased slightly [4]. - **Important Information**: The Ministry of Finance has announced policies to support the economy, and there is a global bond - selling wave [4]. - **Market Interpretation**: The stock index was affected by geopolitical factors and short - term capital adjustments but has strong bottom support [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The treasury bond market rose, and the bond yield decreased [5]. - **Important Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and policies were announced to expand domestic demand [6]. - **Core Views**: The short - term upward trend of the bond market is driven by the stock market, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [6]. Container Shipping European Line - **Market Review**: The container shipping index (European line) futures market closed down, and the trading volume was light [7]. - **Information Sorting**: The core contradiction is the game between the price cut of leading shipping companies and the repeated resumption of navigation. There are both positive and negative factors [8]. - **Trading Judgments**: It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate rose, and the trading volume increased [10]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain was average, and the price of lithium ore and lithium salt increased [10]. - **Viewpoint**: The spot market may show "off - season not off" characteristics, and the futures are expected to be in a high - level wide - range volatile state [10]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: The futures price of industrial silicon decreased, and that of polysilicon increased [11]. - **Industry Performance**: The industrial silicon spot market was average, and the photovoltaic industry spot market improved [12]. - **Viewpoint**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, and in the medium - long term, it is recommended to pay attention to the supply side [12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The copper price continued to adjust, and the basis decreased [14]. - **Industry Information**: The exchange has adjusted the trading margin and price limit, and the inventory has changed [15]. - **Viewpoint**: The exchange has strengthened supervision, and the short - term price is under pressure [16]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy changed [17]. - **Core Views**: Aluminum may fluctuate and correct in the short term but has upward space in the medium - long term; alumina is in an oversupply situation and is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased [18]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market price and inventory of nickel and stainless steel changed [19]. - **Market Analysis**: It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the quota issuance rhythm [19]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds** - **Market Review**: The price of rapeseed meal decreased, and the funds in the meal market continued to decline [21]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The supply of imported soybeans may be in short supply in the first quarter, and the supply of rapeseed meal may increase if the trade relationship improves [22]. - **Outlook**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal is affected by the reserve release, and the rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [23]. - **Oils** - **Market Review**: The prices of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil rebounded [23]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: The export of palm oil increased, and the policies of the US and Indonesia affected the market [24]. - **Viewpoint**: They are easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term [23]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: The prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [26]. - **Industry Performance**: The supply and demand of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil have different characteristics, and the inventory has changed [26]. - **Core Logic**: The high - sulfur market is still weak, and the low - sulfur cracking is sluggish [26][27]. - **Asphalt** - **Spot Situation**: The asphalt price was stable, and the supply and demand in different regions were different [28]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed, and the price is affected by geopolitical factors [29]. - **Viewpoint**: It will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention can be paid to positive spreads, 03 basis, and cracking long - matching opportunities [29]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium** - **Market Review**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose [31]. - **Trading Logic**: Geopolitical and tariff issues have injected short - term safe - haven premiums [31]. - **Viewpoint**: The bull market foundation is still there, but attention should be paid to the opening jump phenomenon [33]. - **Gold and Silver** - **Market Review**: Gold rose, and silver fluctuated [34]. - **Trading Logic**: The geopolitical situation has increased the safe - haven demand for gold, and silver is affected by industrial demand and other factors [34]. - **Viewpoint**: Gold is strong, and silver is volatile. The overall trend of precious metals is easy to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of silver's decline [34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper** - **Market Review**: The futures prices of pulp and offset paper fluctuated [37]. - **Spot Market**: The price of pulp was stable, and the port inventory increased [37][38]. - **Viewpoint**: The pulp market is relatively bearish, and the offset paper is expected to be neutral. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40]. - **LPG** - **Market Dynamics**: The LPG price decreased, and the spread changed [40]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41]. - **PTA - PX** - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of PX and PTA have changed, and the profit has decreased [41]. - **Viewpoint**: The short - term is affected by unexpected maintenance rumors, and it is recommended to buy on dips in the long term [41]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips** - **Inventory**: The inventory of MEG in East China ports has increased [43]. - **Fundamental Situation**: The supply and demand of MEG and polyester have changed, and the profit has been repaired [43]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand side is under pressure, and the over - supply expectation suppresses the valuation [44]. - **Methanol** - **Market Dynamics**: The methanol price changed [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The basis and inventory of methanol have changed [45]. - **Viewpoint**: The geopolitical logic continues, but the 05 contract's fundamentals have weakened marginally, and it is recommended to wait and see [45]. - **PP** - **Market Dynamics**: The PP price decreased [45]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PP is different in different regions, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [46]. - **Viewpoint**: It is necessary to pay attention to the PDH device dynamics, and the short - term supply - demand pattern is expected to be better than that of PE [48]. - **PE** - **Market Dynamics**: The PE price decreased [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of PE decreased, and the supply and demand and inventory have changed [49]. - **Viewpoint**: It is turning to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand and is expected to be weak in the short term [49]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed [49]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot prices of pure benzene and styrene decreased, and the basis increased [50]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply side has new changes, and the styrene price rose at night [49]. - **Rubber** - **Market Trends**: The rubber price stabilized slightly [52]. - **Related Information**: The LPR remained unchanged, and domestic policies were favorable [52]. - **Core Views**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate in a wide range and may stabilize in the short term, but external risks should be noted [72]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Soda Ash**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased [55]. The supply is expected to be high, and the price is restricted by inventory [55]. - **Glass**: The price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The supply and demand are expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to the supply change [56]. - **Propylene** - **Market Dynamics**: The propylene price decreased [56]. - **Spot Feedback**: The spot price of propylene is different in different regions, and the supply and demand have changed [56]. - **Viewpoint**: The supply - demand relationship has weakened, and attention should be paid to geopolitical and device changes [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: They fluctuated and fell, and were relatively resistant to decline compared to furnace materials [58]. - **Core Logic**: The production growth of finished products has slowed

Group 1: Report Summary - The South China Composite Index fell by -0.73% today based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1]. - Among the sector indices, only the South China Agricultural Products Index rose by 0.17%, while the rest declined. The South China Non - Ferrous Metals Index had the largest decline of -2.98%, and the South China Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.44% [1]. - Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.65%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.85%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.38% [1]. - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Rapeseed Oil Index had the largest increase of 2.66%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -10.43% [1][3]. Group 2: Index Market Data - **South China Composite Index (NHCI)**: Today's close is 2723.27, down 2.43 points (-0.09%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 9.90%, the annualized volatility is 12.00%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.82 [3]. - **Precious Metals Index (NHPMI)**: Today's close is 2180.86, up 5.64 points (0.26%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 110.22%, the annualized volatility is 21.49%, and the Sharpe ratio is 5.13 [3]. - **Industrial Products Index (NHII)**: Today's close is 3586.63, down 18.17 points (-0.50%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -3.89%, the annualized volatility is 14.16%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.28 [3]. - **Full - house Index (NHMI)**: Today's close is 7170.98, down 8.59 points (-0.12%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 15.85%, the annualized volatility is 12.79%, and the Sharpe ratio is 1.24 [3]. - **Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI)**: Today's close is 1528.77, down 8.60 points (-0.56%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -15.12%, the annualized volatility is 16.84%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.90 [3]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals Index (NHNF)**: Today's close is 2053.38, up 5.00 points (0.24%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 26.48%, the annualized volatility is 14.64%, and the Sharpe ratio is 1.81 [3]. - **Black Index (NHFI)**: Today's close is 2530.10, down 26.38 points (-1.03%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -0.47%, the annualized volatility is 16.37%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.03 [3]. - **Agricultural Products Index (NHAI)**: Today's close is 1052.92, up 0.57 points (0.05%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 2.61%, the annualized volatility is 7.89%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.33 [3]. - **Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi)**: Today's close is 1181.00, down 0.80 points (-0.07%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -0.32%, the annualized volatility is 9.13%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.04 [3]. - **Energy Index (NHEI)**: Today's close is 968.59, down 7.44 points (-0.76%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -2.68%, the annualized volatility is 17.50%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.15 [3]. - **Petrochemical Index (NHPCI)**: Today's close is 907.89, up 1.53 points (0.17%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 1.21%, the annualized volatility is 10.55%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.12 [3]. - **Coal - Chemical Index (NHCCI)**: Today's close is 923.88, down 4.92 points (-0.53%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -0.01%, the annualized volatility is 12.24%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.00 [3]. - **Colored Raw Materials Index (NHFM)**: Today's close is 1054.74, down 13.31 points (-1.25%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -0.02%, the annualized volatility is 16.82%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.00 [3]. - **Building Materials Index (NHBMI)**: Today's close is 687.09, down 5.51 points (-0.79%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -0.51%, the annualized volatility is 12.88%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.04 [3]. - **Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl)**: Today's close is 1216.05, up 6.84 points (0.57%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is -1.09%, the annualized volatility is 8.42%, and the Sharpe ratio is -0.13 [3]. - **Economic Crops Index (NHAECI)**: Today's close is 921.65, down 3.47 points (-0.37%) from yesterday. The annualized return rate is 0.54%, the annualized volatility is 9.10%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.06 [3]. Group 3: Other Information - The calculation method of the rise - fall ratio in the text is the ratio of today's closing price to yesterday's closing price, and the contribution degree is the product of the rise - fall ratio and the weight. The South China Commodity Index eliminates the price difference when the commodity contract is rolled over, reflecting the real return of investing in commodity futures [10]. - The contribution degree calculation method used in the text is: the rise - fall ratio of a certain variety on the day / ∑|the rise - fall ratio of each variety on the day|. The colored data bar represents that the variety rose on the day, and the blue data bar represents that the variety fell on the day [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the report. It mainly provides comprehensive data on the lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and cost - profit information. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 81.8%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 96.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Indicators**: The main contract's closing price is 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13,240 yuan (8.99%) and a weekly decrease of 6,480 yuan (-3.88%). The trading volume is 451,074 lots, with a daily increase of 121,948 lots (37.05%) and a weekly decrease of 157,103 lots (-25.83%). The open interest is 415,351 lots, with a daily increase of 4,020 lots (0.98%) and a weekly decrease of 44,930 lots (-9.76%) [3]. - **Spread Data**: LC2605 - LC2607 is -860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (59.26%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (38.71%); LC2605 - LC2609 is -1,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 640 yuan (-31.37%) and a weekly decrease of 820 yuan (-36.94%); LC2607 - LC2609 is -540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 960 yuan (-64.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1,060 yuan (-66.25%) [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 27,681 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots (-0.06%) and a weekly increase of 783 lots (2.91%) [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is priced at 4,710 yuan/ton (no daily change), lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) is 8,295 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 70 yuan, 0.85%), lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) is 14,075 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 125 yuan, 0.90%), etc. [20]. - **Lithium Salts**: Industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 1.02%), battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 0.99%), etc. [20]. - **Cell Materials**: Energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,740 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.66%), power lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,140 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.67%), etc. [21]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.961, with a daily decrease of 0.0031 (-0.04%) [21]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton (no change), the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is -12,800 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,680 yuan, 15.11%), etc. [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main continuous contract basis and near - month contract basis of lithium carbonate are presented in historical trend charts [30][31]. - **Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., for the LC2601 contract are provided, with most having no daily change [32]. - **Warehouse Receipt Seasonality**: The lithium carbonate warehouse receipt seasonality chart is shown, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 27,698 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots [34][35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - **Production Profits**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented in trend charts [37]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are shown in trend charts [38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors, with the core driver still in the external market of the origin. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, awaiting the boost from the final US energy policy. It's advisable to adopt a slightly bullish view in the oscillation, and pay attention to the decline opportunities of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads due to the weakening support for rapeseed oil [1][2]. - In the short term, the oil market shows a Back structure with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The price difference of palm oil P5 - 9 oscillates, the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises, and the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - The pogo spread of palm oil decreases slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remains high. The BOHO spread of soybean oil weakens, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil production areas. Malaysia is in the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support, but there is a lack of trend - driving force, waiting for the price boost from India's Ramadan stocking demand [1]. - The latest news on the US biodiesel policy indicates that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market and Canadian rapeseed. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - The Canada - China talks are currently optimistic. The import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest, the support for rapeseed oil weakens [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Soybean oil is being destocked due to its high cost - effectiveness, but the supply pressure is still higher than that of last year. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for upward movement in palm oil in the medium term [15]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat the unilateral trends of P05 and Y05 as rebounds within the range, and pay attention to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the current basis; there is no recommendation for the calendar spread strategy; expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, rapeseed oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800 [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits; refiners with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs; oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports and low soybean oil sales prices can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [19]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as the price differences between months and varieties [20][21][22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; as of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly [23]. - **Negative Information**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills increased last week, and it is expected to continue to rise this week; a Chinese importer purchased a ship of Canadian rapeseed, which may weaken Australia's sales; the predicted palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is increased; the predicted soybean exports in Brazil in 2026 will decrease, but the total supply will increase [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained weak. Soybean oil transactions were relatively high with an obvious year - on - year increase, palm oil had sporadic transactions, and rapeseed oil had no transactions for the time being [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; high - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil; origin weather information [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was divided this week. Soybean oil and palm oil oscillated strongly, while rapeseed oil was affected by the Canada - China talks, rising and then falling back, and then oscillating. There is a lack of trend - driving force for upward movement, and attention should be paid to the US bio - energy policy and the de - stocking progress in the origin. The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and reduced short positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. The Back structure of palm oil is relatively steep, and the P5 - 9 price difference oscillates; the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises; the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out and consolidate this week. The basis of soybean and palm oil continued to operate weakly, while the basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more obviously but gradually weakened with the improvement of the Canada - China relationship [42]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: This week, the cross - variety spread oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts to de - stock, and the import window of Canadian rapeseed opens, the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [46]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market rebounded this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to Malaysia's production - reduction season, better - than - expected exports, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - effectiveness of international palm oil also improved slightly. The net long - position ratio of managed funds decreased, and the commercial short - position ratio was high, limiting the upward space of prices [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The pogo spread of palm oil decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remained high, requiring government subsidies for the Southeast Asian bio - fuel policy. The BOHO spread of soybean oil continued to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price quotation is firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The domestic consumption demand decreased. Although the supply pressure is still large, the better - than - expected exports are expected to promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, exports improved, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low, waiting for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [59]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply shortage caused by the arrival rhythm [59]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The spot supply remains tight, but the global rapeseed harvest and the resumption of Canada - China trade may increase the domestic rapeseed oil supply in the future [59]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the meteorological conditions in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, and points out the current growth status, sowing progress, and potential impacts of weather on yields in these regions, also lists the annual key points of international soybeans [1][2][53] Summary According to Related Contents 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas - **Overall Situation**: Brazil's soybeans are generally in the middle growth stage, with some areas entering the final stage. The national emergence rate is 6.2%, the vegetative growth period is 24.6%, the flowering period is 48.7%, the pod - filling period is 19.6%, and the harvesting progress is 1.39%, higher than the same period last year and the historical average [1][14] - **Regional Conditions** - **Mato Grosso**: The harvesting progress is close to 5%, and it is expected to accelerate by the end of January, affected by rainfall and crop maturity [1][14] - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Soil moisture is good, the pest and disease incidence is low, and over 85.7% of the soybean fields are rated as "good" [1][14] - **Goias**: Some irrigated areas have entered the maturity stage, and the rest benefit from regular rainfall [1][14] - **Minas Gerais**: The crop condition is good, and harvesting will start in the last ten days of January [1][15] - **Parana**: Decreased rainfall and high - temperature weather have accelerated the maturity of plots nearing the end of the cycle, and sporadic harvesting has begun in the western part [1][15] - **Rio Grande do Sul**: State - wide rainfall is beneficial to crop growth, and the first - sown crops have entered the pod - filling stage [1][15] 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas - **Sowing Progress**: The sowing progress increased by 5.6% week - on - week to 93.9%, about 5% behind the previous year [2][35] - **Crop Conditions**: 96% of the sown crops are in good condition or above (a 4% decline from the previous period), and 73% of the water conditions are suitable or above (a 12% decline from the previous period) [2][35] - **Potential Risks**: The northeastern region and the north - central part of Santa Fe are affected by excessive water, delaying sowing. In Buenos Aires, the soil surface is showing water deficiency. If there is no effective rainfall in the next 2 - 3 weeks, the potential yield per unit may be reduced [2][35] 3. International Soybean Annual Key Points - **January**: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [53] - **February**: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [53] - **March**: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [53] - **April**: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [53] - **May**: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [53] - **June**: U.S. yield per unit and Brazilian exports [53] - **July - September**: U.S. yield per unit [53] - **October**: U.S. yield per unit, production, and South American planting area [53] - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [53] - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [53] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Risks include floods and extreme drought [61] - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Risks include floods, droughts, and continuous rain [61] - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [61] - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Risks include continuous rainfall and storms [61]