Nan Hua Qi Huo

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油料产业周报:中美谈判未果,阿根廷政策主导盘面破位下跌-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:28
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is the short - term negative sentiment from Argentina's export tax exemption policy. Argentina's old - crop sales progress is about 60% - 70%, with a potential export volume of up to 10 million tons to China. However, the purchase gap in China in the fourth quarter is less than 10 million tons. The policy's duration until next year is still uncertain. In terms of valuation, the prices of Argentine soybean meal and soybeans have only slightly decreased, providing some cost support for the domestic soybean meal futures. In the long - term, the soybean supply affected by Sino - US trade relations should be monitored [1]. - Rapeseed meal futures generally follow the trend of soybean meal in the short - term. After the Sino - Canadian talks, China has extended the anti - dumping investigation, making rapeseed products stronger than soybeans before November. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may increase the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal by the end of the year [1]. - In the near - term, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in China remains high, and the inventory of soybean meal is increasing seasonally. Rapeseed meal is weaker but relatively stronger than soybean meal. The downstream demand for pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the subsequent purchasing sentiment is expected to be limited. After the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts, the pressure on soybean and rapeseed meal warehouse receipts has increased again, leading to a supply - dominated market [3]. - In the long - term, the import profit of soybeans is weakening, indicating a relief of supply pressure. Without purchasing US soybeans, there will be a supply gap for imported soybeans in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year. Due to Sino - Canadian tariffs, there will also be a supply gap for rapeseed meal in the long - term, but the demand may decline simultaneously. With the supply of rapeseed from other sources, the inventory will decrease in the fourth quarter and slightly recover in the first quarter of next year [17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term focus is on Argentina's export tax exemption policy. The old - crop sales progress is 60% - 70%, with a potential export of up to 10 million tons to China. The policy's impact on the market depends on its duration and China's purchase demand. In the long - term, Sino - US trade relations will affect soybean supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It follows soybean meal in the short - term. Before November, it is stronger than soybeans due to Sino - Canadian relations. After November, the arrival of Australian rapeseed may change the inventory situation [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be range - bound. The M2601 contract is predicted to oscillate between 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through these ranges [18]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Reduce or liquidate previous long positions. Consider a covered call strategy by selling a 3300 - strike call option as a covered opening position, and hold previous covered opening positions [18]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean meal is expected to be between 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.8% and a historical percentile of 3.8% over three years [22]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, feed mills, and oil mills based on their inventory and procurement situations [25]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have declined, while the price of CBOT yellow soybeans remained unchanged, and the offshore RMB exchange rate increased slightly [26]. - **Spreads and Basis**: The spreads and basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal have shown different changes, with the basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal strengthening and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowing [27]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs of US and Brazilian soybeans have decreased, and the pressing profits of Brazilian soybeans are positive but declining. The pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are relatively high [28]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: According to the USDA crop report, as of September 21, the US soybean harvest progress was 9%, and the corn good - to - excellent rate was 61%. The dry weather in the US Midwest may accelerate the harvest. The USDA export inspection report showed that the cumulative soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season increased by 25.9% year - on - year, reaching 3.43% of the annual export target. China has purchased up to nine ships of Australian rapeseed, equivalent to about 8% of last year's total imports [28][29][30]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina has cancelled export taxes on soybeans, grains, and related products from now until October 31 to stimulate exports, which may increase supply and put pressure on international prices. As of last Thursday, the planting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 0.9%, and the upcoming rainfall may accelerate planting. The US EPA's new policy on small refinery exemptions has not clarified the market, leading to a significant decline in Chicago soybean oil futures [31][32]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically completed, and near - term spot purchases are mainly on a need - to - use basis [33]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazilian Secex weekly report and USDA crop growth report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [41]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures price first declined, then rebounded, and finally broke through the support level. Rapeseed meal generally followed the trend of soybean meal but was relatively stronger. Some short - position holders in key profitable seats of soybean and rapeseed meal futures reduced their positions slightly, while foreign - funded seats increased short positions. The crowded long - position seats suggest limited downward space [37]. - **International Market**: The domestic and international markets showed different trends. Before the Sino - US trade negotiation, the international market strengthened, and the domestic market weakened. After the negotiation, the situation reversed. Subsequently, the international soybean market declined due to Argentina's export policy. The net long - position of CBOT soybean managed funds decreased and fluctuated around zero, indicating unclear short - term capital direction [60][64]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profit in US soybean production areas is strong due to biodiesel policies, and the monthly pressing volume remains at a high level. The pressing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) are average, and exports may reduce domestic pressing volume. The domestic pressing profit of Canadian rapeseed is neutral [66]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - The pressing profit of Brazilian soybeans in China is positive but declining. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans as they are more profitable than US soybeans with a 23% tariff. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and the domestic soybean pressing volume may decline seasonally. Although importing rapeseed can yield pressing profits, the purchase of rapeseed will still be cautious due to import margin requirements [74]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - For this month's new - crop balance sheet, the planted area is expected to increase marginally after a significant downward revision in August, and the yield per acre is expected to decrease marginally after reaching a record high. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The domestic pressing demand will continue to grow due to biodiesel policies, while the export demand will remain weak due to Sino - US trade relations. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may exceed normal levels. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight [81]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Projection - China's soybean imports will decline rapidly in the fourth quarter, and rapeseed imports will remain low. The production of soybean meal will also decrease in the fourth quarter, and there may be 2 - 3 ships of imported soybean meal if there is an import profit. Argentina will mainly export soybeans to China [83]. 5.3 Domestic Demand and Projection - The inventory of soybeans carried over from the third quarter and the arrival of new imports in the fourth quarter will maintain a high level of domestic soybean pressing volume, but it will decline in the fourth quarter. After the previous high - level stocking, the consumption of soybean meal is unlikely to increase significantly [86]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projection - The inventory of soybeans in China is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as imports decrease. The inventory of soybean meal will also decline rapidly due to the reduction of raw material inventory and pressing volume [88].
油料产业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:22
油料产业风险管理日报 2025/09/23 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高,担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失,可以根据在企业库存情况,做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润,弥补企业的生产成本 | 1 | | | 0 | | 饲料厂采购 | 采购常备库存偏低,希望根据订单 | 空 | 为了防止粕类价格上涨而抬升采购成本,可以在目前阶段买入豆粕期货,在盘 | M260 | 买入 | 50% | 2850-300 | | 管理 | 情况进行采购 | | 面采购来提前锁定采购成本 | 1 | | | 0 | | 油厂库存管 | 担心进口大豆过多,豆粕销售价过 | 多 | 为了防止进口库存叠加损失,可以根据企业自身情况,做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖 ...
纯苯,苯乙烯风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:21
纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/9/23 戴一帆(投资咨询证号:Z0015428) 黄思婕(期货从业证号:F03130744) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 2、9月新增浙石化两套60万吨苯乙烯装置检修,9月苯乙烯供应继续收紧。本周多次传出有苯乙烯装置降负或 提前检修的消息,有待核实。 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5600-6200 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 6800-7400 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source: 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高,担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的 ...
玉米&淀粉产业链日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:21
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - New - season supply pressure leads to a decline in futures prices, and many deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have lowered the purchase price of new grain; the overall demand for corn is stable, and the import pressure is limited; the supply - demand structure is turning loose, and the main task in the fourth quarter is to digest the pressure of new grain [1] - There are both positive and negative factors in the corn market. Positive factors include a slight rebound in spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai, low - volume imports in August, and successful corn procurement by the Chengdu branch of Sinograin. Negative factors are the new - season harvest causing supply pressure and weakened market sentiment due to price cuts by deep - processing enterprises [3] Group 3: Summary of Relevant Catalogs Corn & Starch Futures Price Changes - From September 19 to September 22, 2025, most corn and corn starch futures contracts showed price declines. For example, corn 11 dropped from 2168 to 2158 (-0.46%), and corn starch 11 dropped from 2463 to 2447 (-0.65%). The wheat average price rose slightly by 0.04% [2] Positive Factors - Corn spot prices in some areas of Huanghuai have slightly rebounded [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, with less substitution pressure [3] - On the 22nd, the Chengdu branch of Sinograin conducted a corn bidding procurement of 4100 tons, all of which were successfully transacted, and there were no sales sessions [3] Negative Factors - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary supply surplus exerts pressure on prices [3] - Many deep - processing enterprises have lowered the purchase price of new grain, further weakening market sentiment [3] Spot Prices and Basis - Corn spot prices in different regions (such as Jinzhou Port, Shekou Port, and Harbin) remained unchanged on the day, and the basis of Jinzhou Port's main - continuous contract increased by 21. Corn starch spot prices in different regions (such as Shandong, Jilin, and Heilongjiang) also remained unchanged, and the basis of Shandong's main - continuous contract increased by 42 [11] US Corn Prices and Import Profits - The price of CBOT corn main - continuous contract dropped by 0.59% to 421.75. The import profit of US Gulf is 306.56 yuan/ton, and that of US West is 448.76 yuan/ton [24]
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 11:20
南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/23 边舒扬(投资咨询证号:Z0012647) 康全贵(从业资格证号:F03148699) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | source: 南华研究,wind,同花顺 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体,秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大,但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹,适当 锁定种植利润,做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050(持有) | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市,卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权,提高 | A2511- ...
股指期货:风止则树静
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:49
股指期货日报 2025年9月23日 王映(投资咨询证号:Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 风止则树静 市场回顾 今日股指走势震荡,以沪深300指数为例,收盘下跌0.06%。从资金面来看,两市成交额上涨3729.00亿元。 期指方面,IF、IH放量上涨,IC、IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1、近日,市场监管总局约谈货拉拉,要求其严格遵守《中华人民共和国反垄断法》等法律规定,落实反垄断 合规主体责任,及时规范经营行为,公平参与市场竞争,维护货车司机、消费者等相关主体合法权益,推动 平台规则和算法公平公正、公开透明,促进行业规范健康发展。 2、市场监管总局会同国家网信办起草的《直播电商监督管理办法》今年6月至7月向社会公开征求意见,目前 已进入法制审查程序,近期将正式发布出台。 3、工信部:开辟人形机器人、脑机接口、元宇宙、量子信息等新赛道,创建一批未来产业先导区。 核心观点 期前夕。短期继续观望为主。 策略推荐 观望为主 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅(%) | ...
南华金属日报:强势拉涨,再创新高-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:44
【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格继续强势拉涨并刷新高,周边美指下跌,中长短美债遭抛售,比特币下跌等因素皆反映美国 货币财政路径对美元信用的侵蚀以及虚拟货币的安全性缺陷难以替代黄金货币属性。然而美货币政策预防经 济衰退的韧性以及美股作为美经济基本盘,改善美股风险偏好和美股表现,或加剧美股泡沫下的风险或经济 滞胀可能性,从而增加黄金避险端需求。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3781.2美元/盎司,+2.03%;美白 银2512合约收报于44.315美元/盎司,+3.17%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收846.5元/克,+2.01%;SHFE白 银2512合约收10317元/千克,+3.81%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 南华金属日报:强势拉涨,再创新高 夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月23日 SHFE黄金白银期货主连价格 降息预期略有降温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示,美联储10月维持利率不变概率10.2%,降息25个基点 的概率为89.8%;美联储12月维持利率不变概率1.7%,累计降息25个基点的概率为23.1%,累计降息50个基 ...
铁矿石11合约月度价格预测-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:43
铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/09/23 周甫翰 (投资咨询证号 Z0020173) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石11合约月度价格预测(10月) | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 780-850 | 21.06% | 11.3% | source: 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议(10月) | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货,担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2511 | 空 | 25% | 840-850 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2511-C-850 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购,担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2511 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:43
source: 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 关性 | | | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 60% | 67000-7 1000 | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划, | 为防止成本上涨,企业根据生 | | | | | | | | 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | | | | | | | | 涨导致采购成本上涨的风险 | 期货合约锁定采购成本 | 场内/场外期权 | 卖出看跌期权 | 40% | LC2511- | | | | | | | | | P-68000 | | | | 产品价格有相关性:未来有生 | | 期货 | 依据采购进度卖出期 | 20% | 依据采购 | | | 产成品价格有相 | 产电池材料的计划,担心未来 | 为防止采到碳酸锂后库存减 | | 货主力合约 | ...
南华镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:38
南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/9/23 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号:Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号:F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source: 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1.25-1.31 | 6.91% | 0.1% | source: 南华研究,wind,同花顺 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级(满分 5) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润,对冲现 货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 | 60 ...