南华期货锌产业周报 ——11月维持高位震荡，观望出口数据 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月9日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌价周初受LME带动，沪锌向上突破，随后维持高位震荡。宏观上，本周宏观情绪偏中性。美国政 府继续停摆，后续降息受数据缺失较难预测，但鲍威尔偏鹰派发言降低降息预期。本周公布的美国ISM制造 业PMI、芝加哥联储失业率等数据显示经济疲软，但ADP数据小幅缓解劳动力担忧。美元指数受流动性紧张 破百，短期维持高位震荡对整体有色上方压制。 基本面上，供给端国内冶炼厂冬储未结束，短期内原料较紧。TC承压运行小幅压制开工意愿，但精炼锌 产量仍处于历史高位，11月环比预计小幅下降。海外精炼锌维持偏紧格局，LME库存继续去库。受外强内弱 格局影响，目前企业皆有一定出口动作，但具体量级待观察。需求端，短期未见合适驱动，维稳为主。 展望未来，基本面上虽仍供强需弱，但受出口窗口打开，以及冶炼利润压缩影响，11月预计有一定改 善。关注宏观数据和供需博弈，偏强震荡为主。 沪锌沪铜期货主力收盘价对比 source： 同 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the short term, due to weak terminal acceptance and seasonal decline in demand, coal and coke prices may face adjustments. However, in the medium to long term, policies restricting over - production and safety inspections will limit the supply elasticity of coking coal. Coupled with winter storage, the downward adjustment space of coking coal spot may be limited. Coal and coke are suitable as long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. - The recommended trading ranges are 1100 - 1350 for coking coal and 1600 - 1850 for coke. Consider taking partial profits when the prices rebound to the upper end of the ranges [2]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Short - term situation**: Recent downstream restocking and reduced mine production have improved coking coal inventory. However, steel mills are in deeper losses, with more planned maintenance, leading to a decline in hot metal production and seasonal weakening of coal and coke demand. Spot valuations are considered too high, and restocking demand has peaked [2]. - **Long - term outlook**: Policies on over - production inspection and safety will limit coking coal supply elasticity. Winter storage is expected to support prices, and coal and coke can be long - positions in the black commodity sector [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread strategy**: Coking coal basis is high, and end - users with procurement plans can consider buying hedging on the futures market. Coke basis has strengthened, and no cash - and - carry arbitrage strategy is recommended [8]. - **Calendar - spread strategy**: The 1 - 5 reverse spread for coking coal is suspended. It is recommended to wait and see due to unclear reverse - spread logic [8]. - **Hedging and arbitrage strategy**: Short the coking profit on the futures market, with an entry range of 1.5 - 1.55 for the 01 coke/coking coal ratio [8]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory hedging**: Coke producers worried about price drops can short the J2601 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. - **Procurement management**: Coking plants concerned about rising raw material prices can long the JM2605 contract, with different hedging ratios and entry ranges [11]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking coal supply**: Some mining indicators such as 523 mine coking coal production and 314 coal washery production have changed. Inventory has also changed, with an overall increase in total coking coal inventory [12]. - **Coke supply**: Coke production and inventory have changed, with a decrease in total coke inventory [12]. - **Prices**: Spot and futures prices of coking coal and coke, as well as related profit indicators, have shown different trends [13][14][15]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: CPI increased in October, coke prices were raised, and coking coal prices in some areas rose [17]. - **Negative news**: Scrap steel prices dropped, steel mill profitability declined, and steel consumption decreased [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monitor China's October M2 money supply growth rate, US October CPI, initial jobless claims, China's October retail sales, and industrial added - value [19]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend**: The coking coal futures main contract failed to break through the resistance level and may enter a wide - range oscillation [19]. - **Capital flow**: Coking coal long - position holders took profits, and short - positions in coke increased, indicating a cautious market sentiment [21]. - **Calendar - spread structure**: The 1 - 5 positive spread for coking coal has strengthened, and it is recommended to wait and see for the reverse spread [26]. - **Base - spread structure**: Coking coal basis is high, suitable for buying hedging. Coke basis has strengthened, with neutral valuation [32]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Since July, upstream coking coal mines' profits have improved, while downstream coking and steel - making profits have deteriorated. Coke price increases have not significantly improved coking profits, and steel mills are reluctant to accept further price hikes [44]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Mongolian coal long - term contract trade profits have recovered, and customs clearance has increased. Seaborne coal import profits have improved, and coal shipments are expected to remain high [46][49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply Side and Projections - Coking coal production growth in the fourth quarter is limited, with an estimated weekly production of 960 - 965 tons in November. Import supply is expected to remain high, with an estimated net import of 980 - 1000 tons in November [63]. - Coke production is expected to be 763 - 767 tons per week in November, and exports are linearly extrapolated [65]. 5.2 Demand Side and Projections - Due to shrinking steel mill profits, the estimated daily hot metal production in November is 230 - 232 tons [68]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Coking coal and coke supply - demand balance sheets show changes in production, imports, supply, and inventory over different weeks [70].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current market presents a situation of "weak reality vs strong cost." Both glass and soda ash are in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but cost and policy expectations still support far - month prices [1][6]. - For glass, the 01 contract is considered to be in an oversupply situation. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking. Cold - repair expectations may affect soda ash demand. For soda ash, it is mainly priced by cost, and there is a downward expectation for rigid demand due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - The market is affected by structural contradictions, real - world conditions, and supply disturbances. Near - end trading focuses on weak reality and strong cost, while far - end trading anticipates cost increases and supply contractions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Structural contradictions exist. In the glass market, the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 2400 tons, and the daily melting volume has dropped to 159,100 tons. The market is still considered oversupplied. For soda ash, it is cost - priced, and without production cuts, its valuation lacks upward flexibility. The rigid demand for soda ash may decline due to potential glass cold - repairs [1]. - In reality, the sales of glass manufacturers have weakened after price increases, and the inventory of traders and in Shahe and Hubei remains high, which may cause a negative feedback. Soda ash maintains a high - production and high - inventory pattern, with obvious oversupply, but there is cost support in the long - term [1]. - Supply disturbances exist. In November, besides the coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, unexpected cold - repair plans and supply disruptions in the glass industry need to be monitored [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The overall fundamental situation is weak, but cost and policy expectations support far - month prices [6]. - Price range prediction: The price range for the glass 2601 contract is (900, 1300), and for the soda ash 2601 contract is (1100, 1500). It is recommended to avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within these ranges [9]. - Month - spread strategy: Without unexpected production cuts, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [9]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Temporarily wait and see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Glass and soda ash price range prediction: Glass 2601 contract (900, 1300), soda ash 2601 contract (1100, 1500). - Strategy suggestions: Avoid unilateral strategies and conduct band operations within the above - mentioned ranges. For the month - spread strategy, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread without unexpected production cuts. Temporarily wait and see for the hedging and arbitrage strategy [9]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management of glass and soda ash, including futures trading and option trading [10]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe on November 9, 2025, was 1117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - Glass futures prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the glass 01 contract was 1091 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [13]. - Soda ash spot prices and spreads: On November 7, 2025, the soda ash 01 contract was 1210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 1 - 5 month - spread was - 84 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [16]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: None provided. - Negative information: The coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe has led to the shutdown of 4 production lines, and the daily melting volume may further decline. Although the glass sales rate has exceeded 100%, the sustainability needs to be observed [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow No specific information provided. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The position of the glass main contract is relatively high this week, and the long - short game may continue until near the delivery. Due to fundamental limitations, the price movement range of glass and soda ash is limited [21]. 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Glass: It maintains a C - structure. The near - end is weak, and the far - end may have cost increases and cold - repair expectations. The 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic, but attention should be paid to supply disturbances [26]. - Soda ash: It also maintains a C - structure. The industry's oversupply expectation remains unchanged. The near - end is suppressed by high production and high inventory, and the far - end may have cost increase expectations. There are few short - term month - spread opportunities [26]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The coal price has risen, and the theoretical cost has increased. Natural gas production lines are in a loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. At current prices, glass factories have limited willingness to actively cold - repair [38]. - Soda ash: The price of thermal coal has risen, and the cost has increased. The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1260 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1210 yuan/ton [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 70,000 tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [47]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 170,000 tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the proportion has increased significantly compared to last year. The export in September was over 180,000 tons, maintaining high expectations [48]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 159,000 tons. With the continuous weakness of glass prices and environmental protection policy expectations, there may be an increase in cold - repairs in Hubei and East China [58]. - Soda ash supply: The supply has not shown unexpected fluctuations, and the current daily production of soda ash is maintained at around 105,000 tons, with high - level supply continuing [61]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: After the spot price increase, the sales of manufacturers have weakened. The mid - stream has high inventory and slow destocking, which may cause a negative feedback. The glass demand is currently weak, with high inventory in the upper and middle reaches and large spot pressure [64][65]. - Soda ash demand: The rigid demand for soda ash has slightly weakened. The combined daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 247,200 tons, corresponding to a daily rigid demand for soda ash of about 49,000 tons. However, due to cold - repairs in float and photovoltaic glass, the rigid demand has declined month - on - month [70]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: According to Longzhong data, the manufacturer's inventory is 63.136 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.654 million heavy boxes, or 4.03%. The inventory days have decreased by 0.9 days to 27.1 days. The mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei remains high [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash is 1.7142 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,200 tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 665,600 tons (a decrease of 11,300 tons). The total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses is 2.3798 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 900 tons. The upstream inventory is relatively stable, and the oversupply is less than expected [75][77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradiction affecting the ferroalloy market is the imbalance between high inventory and weak demand, challenges to cost support, and the gap between anti - involution expectations and weak reality. With the steel mills' profitability rate falling below 40% and iron - water production expected to decline, ferroalloy demand is likely to decrease. After the macro - sentiment fades, the ferroalloy market will return to its fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand, but will be supported by the cost side, expected to fluctuate [2]. - In the short - term, downstream finished - product inventory is accumulating seasonally, and the steel mills' profitability is declining, which may lead to a negative feedback loop in the black - metal industry, further weakening ferroalloy demand. In the long - term, the anti - involution expectation exists, but without substantial progress, there is a high risk of price fluctuations [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - High inventory and weak demand: Ferroalloy production profit is declining, and the market doesn't expect further production increase. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and both silicon ferro and silicon manganese inventories are at a five - year high, with silicon manganese inventory rising by 1.5% and silicon ferro by 9.3% week - on - week [2]. - Cost support challenges: The correlation between coking coal prices and ferroalloy prices is weakening, and the increase in coking coal prices doesn't drive up ferroalloy prices [2]. - Anti - involution expectation and weak reality: The anti - involution sentiment remains, but the high inventory and weak demand situation persists. The market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality, with a high risk of price spikes followed by drops [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Technically, the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages of ferroalloys are downward, and the MACD red bars are shrinking [11]. - **Price Range**: The price range of the silicon ferro main contract 2601 is 5200 - 6400, and that of the silicon manganese main contract 2601 is 5500 - 6500 [12]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Strategies**: The basis is expected to narrow slightly, and no basis strategy is recommended. Although the 1 - 5 calendar spread of ferroalloys is at a five - year low, it's not advisable to buy the spread immediately due to high inventory and weak demand. The 1 - 5 spread may further weaken, but the risk of reverse - arbitrage is also high [12]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of silicon ferro is 5300 - 6000, and that of silicon manganese is 5300 - 6000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of silicon ferro is 12.75% (18.8% in the three - year historical percentile), and that of silicon manganese is 9.62% (4.4% in the three - year historical percentile) [13]. - **Hedging Strategies**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it's recommended to short ferroalloy futures to prevent inventory depreciation. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it's recommended to buy ferroalloy futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry", with a capacity replacement ratio of at least 1.5:1. The fourth round of coke price increases has started. China's exports of automobiles, ships, and electromechanical products have increased [14]. - **Negative News**: The steel market is in a weak season, with steel mills' profitability declining, iron - water production decreasing, and the plate market having high inventory and production. Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates [14][15]. - **Weekly Data**: Silicon ferro production was 11410 tons (up 90 tons week - on - week), and silicon manganese production was 201880 tons (down 5845 tons week - on - week). Silicon ferro factory inventory was 78690 tons (up 6700 tons week - on - week), and silicon manganese factory inventory was 319500 tons (up 5000 tons week - on - week) [14][16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Next Monday: China's M2 money supply for October. - Next Friday: China's year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 and industrial added value above designated size for October. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - **Unilateral Trends and Fund Movements**: The silicon ferro main contract 2601 closed at 5526, up 0.47% week - on - week, with a total open interest of 357300 lots, up 12.14% week - on - week. The silicon manganese main contract 01 closed at 5760, down 0.21% week - on - week, with a total open interest of 571100 lots, up 8.89% week - on - week. The net position of silicon ferro is short, and the net short position of silicon manganese is increasing [17]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The term structure of ferroalloys generally shows a contango structure, but the term structure of some silicon ferro and silicon manganese contracts is improving to a backwardation structure. The basis has been fluctuating slightly. The 1 - 5 calendar spread is at a five - year low, and it's not recommended to buy it immediately. With the anti - involution news, the 1 - 5 spread may further weaken [21][22]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Ferroalloy production profit is declining. Silicon ferro production remains high, and there is a strong incentive for enterprises to cut production. Silicon manganese production has been falling for several weeks [37]. - The export profit of silicon ferro has improved, and its export volume is expected to increase [63]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - Supply: As the off - season approaches and production profit has been falling, there is a higher possibility of production cuts. With the arrival of the flat - water season, silicon manganese production in the southern region may decline, and overall ferroalloy production is expected to decrease [67]. - Demand: Downstream demand is entering the off - season. The profit of downstream products like rebar and hot - rolled coils is declining due to inventory accumulation, which will suppress the demand for ferroalloys. Iron - water production is likely to decline, and ferroalloy demand for steel - making may also decrease [67][77]. - Inventory: Warehouse receipts are expected to continue to decline due to forced cancellation and seasonal factors, and the total inventory will gradually decrease [67]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side Projection - Due to the decline in production profit, especially for silicon ferro, there is a strong incentive for production cuts, and the production is expected to decline slightly [69]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Projection - The demand for ferroalloys is affected by the off - season and the decline in downstream product profit. The high iron - water production is difficult to maintain, and the demand for ferroalloys in steel - making may decrease [77]. 3.5.4 Inventory - Side Projection - Given the high operating rate of ferroalloy enterprises and weak downstream demand, enterprise inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. After the forced cancellation of warehouse receipts, new receipts will be registered, and the total inventory is expected to increase [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The PE market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The supply pressure continues to increase, while the demand support is insufficient. In the medium - and short - term, a bearish view is taken, and in the long - term, the supply pressure of non - standard PE products may suppress LLDPE prices [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: The pressure is continuously increasing. There are few subsequent device maintenance plans, and the start - up rate is expected to continue to rise. In the fourth quarter, new device startups are still concentrated, such as the upcoming startups of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [1]. - Demand side: The support is insufficient. Although the agricultural film industry is in the traditional peak season, the overall start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. After mid - November, the growth space for demand will be limited, and other downstream industries of PE have insufficient new orders [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Weak oscillation. The price range of L2601 is 6600 - 7000. The strategy is to short on rallies [10]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: No basis strategy; 1 - 5 reverse spread; short - term hedging arbitrage space is limited, and in the long - term, consider narrowing the L - P spread on the 05 contract [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [11]. - **Procurement management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: On Wednesday, affected by the news of gas restrictions on Iranian devices, the methanol futures market strengthened, and polyolefins briefly followed the upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - The start - up situation of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices [12]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral trend and capital movement**: This week, the futures market oscillated downward. The open interest increased, and there were no obvious changes in the top five long and short positions on the order book. The net long positions of the top five profitable seats slightly increased [17]. - **Basis structure**: The spot situation in East China improved and prices stabilized, but the situations in North and South China were still weak. As of Friday, the basis in North China was - 32 yuan/ton (strengthened by 47 compared with last week), in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+107), and in South China was 248 yuan/ton (- 3) [20]. - **Spread structure**: The L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure due to the relatively optimistic market expectation for the subsequent macro - situation and the limited start - up of LLDPE devices in the first half of next year [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines are compressed. Currently, the coal - based production line with the best profit is also in a loss state. Since PE devices are not very sensitive to profit conditions, short - term losses usually do not lead to unexpected shutdowns, so PE lacks strong cost - side support in a downward market [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - strong and demand - weak pattern of PE is difficult to change. On the supply side, although device maintenance has increased recently, the high inventory capacity and the upcoming start - up of multiple devices in the fourth quarter, as well as the expected increase in imports after October, will further increase the total supply of PE. On the demand side, although the production and sales of agricultural films are still good, the subsequent growth is limited, and the support from other downstream industries of PE will gradually weaken [31]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Its Deduction - The current PE start - up rate is 82.56% (+1.69%). Multiple devices such as Fushun Petrochemical and ExxonMobil restarted at the beginning of the month, and the device maintenance volume decreased. It is expected that the device maintenance volume will continue to decrease, and with the upcoming start - up of two sets of Guangxi Petrochemical's devices, the supply pressure of PE will remain high [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Its Deduction - **Import**: The overseas market is in a loose pattern, and the continuous decline in PE prices has led to an influx of low - price goods into China. Therefore, PE imports are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [43]. - **Export**: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the total volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [43]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Its Deduction - The current average start - up rate of PE downstream industries is 45.75% (- 0.52%). The agricultural film industry is still in the peak season, but the start - up rate and order growth rate have slowed down. As the year - end approaches, the growth space for demand is limited, and the willingness of downstream enterprises to stock up has weakened [48].

南华期货集运产业周报 2025年11月09日 ——高位回调，关注货量与地缘动向 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 本周市场的核心矛盾从"船司集体提涨预期"转向 "龙头船司保守定价与市场乐观情绪之间的预期差"。边际变化 上，马士基最新wk47开舱价仅大柜2365美金，远低于此前部分船司宣称的3000美金水平，这一定价策略直接 导致市场多头情绪转弱，并引发主力合约2512出现显著的多头减仓行情。现货运价方面，11月下旬报价呈现 高度分化（MSC 2365美金、YML/ONE 2500-2600美金、EMC 2710美金），整体中枢预计将持平或略高于 11月上旬的2100美金水平，但难以形成趋势性上涨动力。当前矛盾焦点在于马士基的保守定价是否会带动其 他船司下调报价，以及12月运价宣涨能否有效落地。供需层面，货量疲软格局未改，船司间的策略分化加剧 了现货市场的不确定性，预计短期盘面仍将受"现实弱"与"预期稳"之间的博弈主导。 EC各合约收盘价、SCFIS指数 点 EC2512收盘价 EC2602收盘价 EC26 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the US dollar index is expected to fluctuate between 99 - 101. Its ability to firmly return above 100 depends on the US government's reopening negotiation deadline and the quality of economic data after reopening [1][19]. - This week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to range from 7.10 to 7.15. Near the end of the year, it may show a "shifting down of the oscillation bottom" trend, with a low probability of significant one - sided depreciation [1][19]. - There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October. The trade data has short - term "noise", and the export data in October is a replenishment for the high growth in September. The export growth rate may decline in the fourth quarter, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - **US Market**: The adjustment of US stocks was triggered by warnings from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley at a summit. The US government shutdown affected data release. ADP employment in October exceeded expectations, but the labor market is under pressure. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut fluctuated, and the US dollar index lost the 100 mark and then rebounded and fell [2][5]. - **European and UK Markets**: The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.0%, with a 5 - 4 vote split. High inflation in the UK restricted interest - rate cuts. Sweden and Norway also maintained their policies [6]. - **Japanese Market**: The minutes of the Bank of Japan's policy meeting indicated that the pre - conditions for restarting interest - rate hikes were gradually being met, strengthening the market's expectation of a policy shift and causing fluctuations in the Japanese bond market [6]. - As of November 7, 16:30, the US dollar index depreciated, the on - shore and off - shore RMB depreciated against the US dollar, while the Japanese yen, euro, and British pound appreciated against the US dollar [7]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate showed an inverted V - shape, fluctuating within the 7.10 - 7.14 range as predicted [15]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The short - term trend of the US dollar index and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is as mentioned in the core viewpoints. There's no need to over - worry about the decline in China's import and export data in October [19][21]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0836, depreciating 44 basis points. The counter - cyclical factor shows that the central bank aims to stabilize the exchange rate [23]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In September 2025, China's foreign exchange market was stable. Cross - border capital flows were active and balanced, and foreign exchange supply and demand were relatively balanced. There was a small net outflow in September due to the holiday, which turned into an inflow in October [26][27]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the depreciation sentiment of overseas investors towards the RMB slightly declined [31]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: The 1 - year NDF closing price of the USD/CNH rose. In the short - to - medium term, the market's sentiment towards RMB appreciation and depreciation changed little, while the long - term appreciation sentiment increased [33]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant figures show the trading situation of the Hong Kong Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract [36]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Figures present the trading situation of the Singapore Exchange's USDCNH futures main contract and the basis difference with the Hong Kong Exchange [43]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Focus On 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 200 billion yuan. Service trade imports and exports increased in the first three quarters. China announced measures to implement the consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations. Some export control measures were suspended, and some US entities' trade qualifications were restored. In October, foreign trade maintained growth, and foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves increased [47][48]. - **US**: The number of corporate layoffs reached a high level since 2020. The ISM manufacturing PMI in October was in contraction, ADP employment exceeded expectations, the ISM services PMI reached a new high, and consumer confidence was at a low level [49][50]. - **UK**: No significant events [51]. - **Eurozone**: The manufacturing PMI in October was 50, and the services PMI drove the composite PMI to a new high. Germany's service industry recovered strongly, while France's was in contraction [51]. - **Japan**: Nominal wages increased in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy [52]. - **Others**: South Korea's CPI accelerated in October, which may lead to the central bank continuing to suspend interest - rate cuts [53]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Key Statements Summary - **China's Central Bank**: No relevant statements [54]. - **Federal Reserve**: Different Fed officials had different views on interest - rate cuts, adding uncertainty to the December decision [54][55]. - **Bank of Japan**: The prime minister hoped for appropriate policies, and the meeting minutes showed a cautious attitude towards interest - rate hikes [56]. - **European Central Bank**: Officials believed there was no reason to adjust borrowing costs but remained vigilant about inflation [57]. - **Bank of England**: The bank kept the interest rate at 4%, with internal differences intensifying and increasing the expectation of a December interest - rate cut [58]. - **Others**: The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the key interest rate unchanged and warned of inflation pressure [59]. 3.3.3 Key Financial and Economic Data and Events to Focus on This Week - A series of important economic data from different regions such as the UK unemployment rate, China's M2 money supply, and the US CPI are to be released this week [60]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Conditions - Figures show the exchange rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound [62][64][68]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Figures display the trends of assets such as London gold, VIX, WTI crude oil, and the S&P 500 index [83][84][87]. 3.4.3 Capital Situation - Figures present the central bank's open - market operations, Shibor, and SOFR quotes [92][94]. 3.4.4 China - US Interest Rate Spread - Figures show the trends of the China - US interest rate spread and the yields of 10 - year Chinese and US Treasury bonds [96][97]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - Figures show the trends of the CFETS, BIS, and SDR RMB exchange rate indices [100]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - Figures show the monthly value of the global economic and trade friction index and the year - on - year and month - on - month changes in the amount involved in relevant measures [102][104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic urea market is stable with an upward bias due to new export quotas, but high supply in November may pressure prices. Export policy adjustments and rising coal prices support the urea price, while the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - The near - term trading logic suggests an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month difference of urea futures due to the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, though the 01 contract still has a premium because of autumn fertilizer expectations [7]. - In the long - term, the domestic urea daily production fluctuates slightly, and the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the enterprise inventory increases significantly, and new orders need to be replenished [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - New export quota of 600,000 tons is directly allocated to upstream factories, supporting short - term spot prices. In November, high daily production may pressure prices, but export policy adjustments and rising coal prices provide support [4]. - Near - term: The cheapest deliverable locations for urea futures are Henan and Shandong. The 1 - 5 month spread of 01 contract is in an inverse spread due to the disappearance of export expectations, but the 01 contract still has a premium [7]. - Long - term: Domestic urea daily production fluctuates between 195,000 - 201,000 tons around holidays and then drops to 195,000 tons. After - holiday enterprise inventory is around 1.4 million tons, an increase from before the holiday, and new orders need to be replenished [12]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to run weakly and volatile. The UR2601 contract is expected to trade between 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1,750 yuan/ton and set up an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [14]. - **Basis, Month - spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak unilateral trend, while contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong with peak - season demand expectations [15]. - Month - spread strategy: The upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices and set up an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month spread [15]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: None [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tender for 2.5 million tons on November 6, with a shipment deadline of January 15, 2026. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and low prices may attract spontaneous reserves [17]. - **Negative Information**: The domestic urea daily production has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and high inventory has pressured prices. Market confidence is lacking, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons next week, an increase from this week. There are no planned shutdowns, and 5 - 6 enterprises' devices may resume production [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic urea daily production fluctuates around 195,000 - 201,000 tons around holidays and then drops to 195,000 tons. After - holiday enterprise inventory is around 1.4 million tons, an increase from before the holiday. Agricultural demand in Shandong and Henan is postponed due to rain, and compound fertilizer factories in some areas are shut down. Downstream procurement willingness is low [21]. - The main contradiction is weak domestic demand. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot offset the weakening of domestic demand, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The 1 - 5 month spread of urea futures is in an inverse spread [22]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for urea is 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1% [31]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short urea futures (UR2601) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Buy put options (UR2601P1850) to prevent price drops and sell call options (UR2601C1950) to reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 45 - 60 [31]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy urea futures (UR2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton. Sell put options (UR2601P1650) to collect premiums and lock in purchase prices if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, and production profit [33]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization [43]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of China's urea weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) [47]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit, as well as charts of melamine's production, capacity utilization, market price, and production profit [53]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's average production and sales, as well as production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [76].

南华期货烧碱产业周报 ——供需格局偏弱，价格区间波动 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月9日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 现实补库需求不及预期，随着检修结束产量逐步回升，烧碱供应压力增加；估值上，液氯价格偏强，整体氯 碱利润维持中高位置，削弱了成本支撑，碱厂也没有主动减产的动机。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 高利润限制价格高度；中长期投产压力继续，供需格局偏弱 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 40 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 30 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 液碱山东周度工厂库存季节性 source： BAIINFO,南华研究 万吨 202 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The market was affected by news such as the US increasing military threats against Venezuela and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs after the China - US leaders' meeting, causing short - term increases in crude oil and asphalt prices. Concerns about asphalt raw material supply emerged due to Venezuela's importance as an oil source for Chinese asphalt refineries. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments were not substantially affected according to Kpler data. Demand has entered the off - season, winter storage is unpromising, and some Shandong refineries have复产 expectations. The price is expected to move downward, and short - term traders should pay attention to the rhythm and take profits in time [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Asphalt Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.68% [2]. 3.2. Asphalt Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs and lock in the spot selling price if prices rise [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a 20% ratio at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2]. 3.3. Price and Basis Information - **Spot Prices**: On November 7, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3050 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan from the previous day and 180 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta was 3390 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan and 80 yuan week - on - week), the North China was 3100 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan and 150 yuan week - on - week), and the South China was 3350 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan and 100 yuan week - on - week) [9]. - **Basis**: The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 2 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan and 43 yuan week - on - week), the Yangtze River Delta was 338 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan and up 57 yuan week - on - week), the North China was 48 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan and 13 yuan week - on - week), and the South China was 298 yuan/ton (up 24 yuan and 37 yuan week - on - week) [9]. - **Crack Spread**: The Shandong spot crack spread against Brent was 75.7456 yuan/barrel (down 8.6645 yuan and 24.0369 yuan week - on - week), and the futures main contract crack spread against Brent was 75.3991 yuan/barrel (down 10.5705 yuan and 26.8094 yuan week - on - week) [9]. 3.4. Seasonal Data - The report also includes seasonal charts of asphalt 12 - contract basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, and Northeast regions, asphalt futures month - spreads (03 - 06, 06 - 09, 09 - 12), domestic asphalt plant - warehouse total inventory rate, and asphalt warehouse and plant - warehouse receipt quantities [10][15][20].