1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - No explicit core view presented in the report. It mainly provides comprehensive data on the lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and cost - profit information. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 81.8%, and the historical percentile (3 - year) is 96.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Indicators**: The main contract's closing price is 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 13,240 yuan (8.99%) and a weekly decrease of 6,480 yuan (-3.88%). The trading volume is 451,074 lots, with a daily increase of 121,948 lots (37.05%) and a weekly decrease of 157,103 lots (-25.83%). The open interest is 415,351 lots, with a daily increase of 4,020 lots (0.98%) and a weekly decrease of 44,930 lots (-9.76%) [3]. - **Spread Data**: LC2605 - LC2607 is -860 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (59.26%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (38.71%); LC2605 - LC2609 is -1,400 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 640 yuan (-31.37%) and a weekly decrease of 820 yuan (-36.94%); LC2607 - LC2609 is -540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 960 yuan (-64.00%) and a weekly decrease of 1,060 yuan (-66.25%) [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 27,681 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots (-0.06%) and a weekly increase of 783 lots (2.91%) [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: Lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is priced at 4,710 yuan/ton (no daily change), lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) is 8,295 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 70 yuan, 0.85%), lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) is 14,075 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 125 yuan, 0.90%), etc. [20]. - **Lithium Salts**: Industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 149,000 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 1.02%), battery - grade lithium carbonate is 152,500 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,500 yuan, 0.99%), etc. [20]. - **Cell Materials**: Energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,740 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.66%), power lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 54,140 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 360 yuan, 0.67%), etc. [21]. - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 6.961, with a daily decrease of 0.0031 (-0.04%) [21]. - **Spot Spreads**: The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton (no change), the spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide is -12,800 yuan/ton (a daily increase of 1,680 yuan, 15.11%), etc. [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The main continuous contract basis and near - month contract basis of lithium carbonate are presented in historical trend charts [30][31]. - **Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium Energy, Tianqi Lithium, etc., for the LC2601 contract are provided, with most having no daily change [32]. - **Warehouse Receipt Seasonality**: The lithium carbonate warehouse receipt seasonality chart is shown, and the total warehouse receipt quantity is 27,698 lots, with a daily decrease of 17 lots [34][35]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Data - **Production Profits**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented in trend charts [37]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are shown in trend charts [38][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors, with the core driver still in the external market of the origin. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, awaiting the boost from the final US energy policy. It's advisable to adopt a slightly bullish view in the oscillation, and pay attention to the decline opportunities of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads due to the weakening support for rapeseed oil [1][2]. - In the short term, the oil market shows a Back structure with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The price difference of palm oil P5 - 9 oscillates, the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises, and the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - The pogo spread of palm oil decreases slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remains high. The BOHO spread of soybean oil weakens, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil production areas. Malaysia is in the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support, but there is a lack of trend - driving force, waiting for the price boost from India's Ramadan stocking demand [1]. - The latest news on the US biodiesel policy indicates that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market and Canadian rapeseed. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - The Canada - China talks are currently optimistic. The import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest, the support for rapeseed oil weakens [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Soybean oil is being destocked due to its high cost - effectiveness, but the supply pressure is still higher than that of last year. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for upward movement in palm oil in the medium term [15]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat the unilateral trends of P05 and Y05 as rebounds within the range, and pay attention to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the current basis; there is no recommendation for the calendar spread strategy; expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, rapeseed oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800 [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits; refiners with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs; oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports and low soybean oil sales prices can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [19]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as the price differences between months and varieties [20][21][22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; as of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly [23]. - **Negative Information**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills increased last week, and it is expected to continue to rise this week; a Chinese importer purchased a ship of Canadian rapeseed, which may weaken Australia's sales; the predicted palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is increased; the predicted soybean exports in Brazil in 2026 will decrease, but the total supply will increase [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained weak. Soybean oil transactions were relatively high with an obvious year - on - year increase, palm oil had sporadic transactions, and rapeseed oil had no transactions for the time being [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; high - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil; origin weather information [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was divided this week. Soybean oil and palm oil oscillated strongly, while rapeseed oil was affected by the Canada - China talks, rising and then falling back, and then oscillating. There is a lack of trend - driving force for upward movement, and attention should be paid to the US bio - energy policy and the de - stocking progress in the origin. The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and reduced short positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. The Back structure of palm oil is relatively steep, and the P5 - 9 price difference oscillates; the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises; the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out and consolidate this week. The basis of soybean and palm oil continued to operate weakly, while the basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more obviously but gradually weakened with the improvement of the Canada - China relationship [42]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: This week, the cross - variety spread oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts to de - stock, and the import window of Canadian rapeseed opens, the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [46]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market rebounded this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to Malaysia's production - reduction season, better - than - expected exports, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - effectiveness of international palm oil also improved slightly. The net long - position ratio of managed funds decreased, and the commercial short - position ratio was high, limiting the upward space of prices [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The pogo spread of palm oil decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remained high, requiring government subsidies for the Southeast Asian bio - fuel policy. The BOHO spread of soybean oil continued to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price quotation is firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The domestic consumption demand decreased. Although the supply pressure is still large, the better - than - expected exports are expected to promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, exports improved, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low, waiting for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [59]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply shortage caused by the arrival rhythm [59]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The spot supply remains tight, but the global rapeseed harvest and the resumption of Canada - China trade may increase the domestic rapeseed oil supply in the future [59]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [61].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the meteorological conditions in Brazilian and Argentine soybean - producing areas, and points out the current growth status, sowing progress, and potential impacts of weather on yields in these regions, also lists the annual key points of international soybeans [1][2][53] Summary According to Related Contents 1. Brazilian Soybean - Producing Areas - **Overall Situation**: Brazil's soybeans are generally in the middle growth stage, with some areas entering the final stage. The national emergence rate is 6.2%, the vegetative growth period is 24.6%, the flowering period is 48.7%, the pod - filling period is 19.6%, and the harvesting progress is 1.39%, higher than the same period last year and the historical average [1][14] - **Regional Conditions** - **Mato Grosso**: The harvesting progress is close to 5%, and it is expected to accelerate by the end of January, affected by rainfall and crop maturity [1][14] - **Mato Grosso do Sul**: Soil moisture is good, the pest and disease incidence is low, and over 85.7% of the soybean fields are rated as "good" [1][14] - **Goias**: Some irrigated areas have entered the maturity stage, and the rest benefit from regular rainfall [1][14] - **Minas Gerais**: The crop condition is good, and harvesting will start in the last ten days of January [1][15] - **Parana**: Decreased rainfall and high - temperature weather have accelerated the maturity of plots nearing the end of the cycle, and sporadic harvesting has begun in the western part [1][15] - **Rio Grande do Sul**: State - wide rainfall is beneficial to crop growth, and the first - sown crops have entered the pod - filling stage [1][15] 2. Argentine Soybean - Producing Areas - **Sowing Progress**: The sowing progress increased by 5.6% week - on - week to 93.9%, about 5% behind the previous year [2][35] - **Crop Conditions**: 96% of the sown crops are in good condition or above (a 4% decline from the previous period), and 73% of the water conditions are suitable or above (a 12% decline from the previous period) [2][35] - **Potential Risks**: The northeastern region and the north - central part of Santa Fe are affected by excessive water, delaying sowing. In Buenos Aires, the soil surface is showing water deficiency. If there is no effective rainfall in the next 2 - 3 weeks, the potential yield per unit may be reduced [2][35] 3. International Soybean Annual Key Points - **January**: U.S. soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, and Chinese imports [53] - **February**: U.S. exports, Chinese imports, Chinese stocks, and (planting intention forecast) [53] - **March**: Brazilian exports, South American production, and U.S. sown area [53] - **April**: South American production, U.S. sown area, and Brazilian exports [53] - **May**: U.S. and Chinese sown areas, and Brazilian exports [53] - **June**: U.S. yield per unit and Brazilian exports [53] - **July - September**: U.S. yield per unit [53] - **October**: U.S. yield per unit, production, and South American planting area [53] - **November**: U.S. production and South American planting area [53] - **December**: U.S. production, South American planting area, and U.S. exports [53] 4. Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - **Planting Period**: The average daily temperature of the 5 - centimeter soil layer at the initial sowing stage should reach 10 - 12°C. After germination, the suitable temperature for seedling growth is 15 - 25°C, and the water content should be maintained at 60% - 70%. Risks include floods and extreme drought [61] - **Flowering Period**: The suitable temperature is 20 - 28°C, and the soil water content should be 70% - 80%. Risks include floods, droughts, and continuous rain [61] - **Growth Period**: The suitable temperature is 21 - 23°C, and the soil field water - holding capacity should be about 70%. Risks include heatwaves, droughts, and pests [61] - **Harvest Period**: The suitable temperature is 15 - 25°C, the air relative humidity should be 50% - 60%, and the soil humidity should be 40% - 50% of the field water - holding capacity. Risks include continuous rainfall and storms [61]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - A La Niña phenomenon has formed, but its intensity has been weak as of early 2026, with limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, indicating that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited. The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and March. Some regions in Indonesia may also face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March. Short - term lack of rainfall and persistent poor soil humidity in some areas may affect palm oil production in the second half of the year [1][2] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Weather Forecast - **El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index**: As of the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index exceeded the threshold of 1, and the El Niño index was - 0.55 as of the end of November. The Southern Oscillation Index has remained positive, indicating the formation of a La Niña phenomenon. As of early 2026, its intensity has been weak, and the overall rainfall in Southeast Asia has not shown significant deviations, currently having limited impact on palm oil production areas. The Southern Oscillation Index is gradually approaching the zero - axis, suggesting that La Niña may be nearing its end [1]. - **Weekly Weather**: This week, rainfall in the Malay Archipelago remains scarce. The Malay Peninsula has almost no precipitation, with only sporadic rainfall in East Malaysia. Most parts of Indonesia have received some rainfall, but the amounts are still limited [1]. - **Soil Humidity**: The soil humidity in the southern Malay Peninsula is dry, and drought may spread in February and expand to the entire Malay Peninsula in March. In Sabah and Sarawak, rainfall is sufficient, and soil humidity is good. In Indonesia, although most areas have received rainfall, the amounts are lower than the same period last year. Soil humidity in Riau, Central Kalimantan, and North Sumatra is decreasing, and these regions may face drought risks if rainfall does not improve in February and March [2]. Regional Palm Oil Production Areas Indonesia - **Jambi**: Rainfall shows a downward trend, but soil humidity is good, and there is currently no drought disturbance [25]. - **West Kalimantan**: Rainfall decreases towards the end of the month, and attention should be paid to changes in soil humidity [29]. - **Central Kalimantan**: Rainfall is decreasing, and soil humidity may decline [37]. - **East Kalimantan**: Precipitation is abundant, and the soil is moist [42]. - **Riau**: Rainfall increase is insufficient, and soil humidity is decreasing [50]. - **South Sumatra**: Rainfall is rising, and soil humidity is expected to exceed the average level of the past 20 years [57]. - **North Sumatra**: Rainfall was limited in January, and soil humidity is decreasing [63]. Malaysia - **Johor**: There is almost no precipitation, and soil humidity may decline [71]. - **Pahang**: Rainfall has returned to a lower level, and the increase in soil humidity is insufficient [77]. - **Perak**: Rainfall at the beginning of the year is decreasing, and soil humidity is also decreasing [84]. - **Sabah**: Cumulative rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90]. - **Sarawak**: Rainfall is adequate, and soil humidity remains at a relatively high level in recent years [96].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of rubber has been significantly affected by recent macro - sentiment fluctuations. With the implementation of macro - easing policies from the central bank and changes in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policies, the macro - sentiment has retreated, leading to a callback and differentiation in commodities [1][2]. - The price of Shanghai rubber RU is mainly determined by future demand, destocking expectations, and valuation, and is highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are in the pre - low - season rush to increase production, with sufficient raw materials. High inventory from increased imports in December and downstream inventory pressure will suppress prices. The future trend of rubber prices is expected to fluctuate with sentiment and remain in a wide - range shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment fluctuations impact the rubber market. The implementation of China's central bank's easing policies and the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, along with geopolitical tensions and trade frictions, have led to a retreat in macro - sentiment and a callback in commodities [1]. - For RU, domestic suspension of tapping, destocking of whole latex, future demand, and valuation expectations are key factors, while being highly influenced by macro - sentiment. Overseas production areas are approaching the low - season, with sufficient raw materials and high inventory from imports suppressing prices. Downstream inventory pressure and uncertain domestic and foreign demand also affect prices [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference shock range for RU2605 is 15,500 - 16,200, with important pressure at 16,000 and support around 15,600. The shock range for NR2603 is 12,500 - 13,200, with important support at 12,600 [15]. - **Trend Judgment**: With stable pre - festival stocking demand downstream and a neutral - to - loose supply upstream, rubber prices are mainly affected by macro - sentiment and policy stimuli, and will mainly fluctuate in the future [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Adopt a neutral view on RU and NR, and be cautious at current price levels. Consider using hedging strategies such as protective options or spread strategies. Pay attention to the high - basis situation of RU and the low - spread expansion opportunity of NR - BR [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory, short - sell rubber futures (RU2605) to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options (RU2605 - P15500), and sell call options (RU2605 - C16750) [29]. - **Procurement Management**: Enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans can buy rubber far - month futures (NR2603 and subsequent contracts) to lock in procurement costs and buy out - of - the - money call options (RU2605 - C16250) [29]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central bank announced a series of policies to increase liquidity and stimulate the economy. Tire enterprise开工 rates increased, and vehicle sales showed growth in some segments. Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased in 2025. There is a probability of an El Nino event in Q3 2026 [30][31]. - **Negative Information**: Geopolitical risks decreased, leading to a drop in oil prices and dragging down the chemical sector. The Fed may "pause rate cuts". South Korea's natural rubber imports decreased in 2025, and China's natural rubber social inventory increased. Rainfall in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia decreased, increasing raw - material supply expectations [32][33][34]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor weather changes in production areas and the progress of tapping in high - latitude regions. Pay attention to the release of import and export data, port and social inventories, and the registration of whole - latex warehouse receipts. Track downstream tire pre - festival stocking and production - sales rhythms. Keep an eye on macro - sentiment and relevant economic data [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, commodities continued to fluctuate and adjust, with rubber showing a relatively strong shock, reaching a high point before回调. RU performed relatively strongly [36]. - **Fund Trends**: The net short - position of Shanghai rubber increased, while the short - position of 20 - standard rubber decreased, and profits increased during the week [41]. 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: The prices of some rubber varieties changed slightly, with some showing small increases or decreases [45][47]. - **Delivery - Product Price Trends**: The price trends of 20 - standard rubber delivery products are presented in relevant charts [49]. - **Term Structure Analysis**: The basis of whole latex is regressing, and the term structure of NR and the spread between different varieties and contracts show certain characteristics [50][58]. - **External Market Conditions**: The unilateral trends and term - spread structures of external markets such as Tocom RSS3 and Sicom 20 - standard rubber are presented, and the internal - external spreads between RU and Japanese rubber and NR and Singapore rubber are analyzed [63][65][67]. - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Indicators**: The virtual - to - physical ratio of rubber is higher than the historical average, and the bullish sentiment has declined, while the downstream tire sentiment has returned to neutral [74]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between dark and light rubber has widened, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber has narrowed. The reasons are related to supply - demand and inventory situations [78][92]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw - Material Costs**: Domestic production areas have suspended tapping, and the price of Yunnan rubber blocks has remained stable. In Thailand, raw - material prices have increased slightly due to the end of the harvesting season and competition for procurement [96]. - **Processing Profits**: The processing profits of domestic and imported rubber have shown different trends, with some showing slight decreases [103][106]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Main - Producing Country Output**: The global natural - rubber production in 2025 is expected to increase by 1.3%, with different growth rates in each country [108]. - **Domestic Import Situation**: China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) increased in 2025 [111]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Main - Producing Country Total Demand**: China's demand rebounded in November, and the total demand of most overseas main - producing countries also increased month - on - month [117]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: Tire enterprise开工 rates increased last week, mainly due to pre - festival stocking. Tire exports showed different trends in different segments, and the EU's anti - dumping investigation may affect future exports [119]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand [127][128]. - **Supporting Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic automobile sales have been strong, but the inventory pressure has increased. The export of new - energy vehicles and semi - trailers has been strong [131]. - **Supporting Demand - Heavy - Duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The sales of heavy - duty trucks and construction machinery have increased, but the long - term growth of demand may be limited by the slowdown in fixed - asset investment [134]. - **Overseas Tire Production**: The production of Japanese tires has been stable, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [136]. - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite weakening auto sales. European passenger - car production and sales have been stable [138]. - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: The PMI data in December showed an increase, and the开工 of other rubber downstream industries has further improved [144]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the rubber warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 0.52 million tons, and the 20 - standard rubber warehouse - receipt inventory decreased slightly by 0.02 million tons [146]. - **Social Inventory**: As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased, with changes in the inventory and turnover rates of bonded and general - trade warehouses [148].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The egg market's supply-demand pattern has improved, but long - term egg - laying hen capacity remains in surplus with high price pressure. The current capacity is at a high level but approaching an inflection point, with an overall bearish long - term trend. If speculating on a rebound, it is recommended to focus on far - month contracts [1] - Market expectations are that holiday stocking during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, Dragon Boat Festival, and Mid - Autumn Festival & National Day in the second and third quarters will boost demand [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The inventory of laying hens is still at an absolute high. Although the inventory of laying hens in production has decreased slightly, the supply remains high. The market supply - demand pattern has improved. In December, the inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.344 billion, a month - on - month decrease. The egg - laying rate is expected to increase with the dropping temperature. The elimination volume of old hens remains high due to low breeding profits, and the enthusiasm for culling is fair. Chicken chick sales increased slightly in December, but the overall replenishment sentiment remains cautious. The inventory structure shows that the proportion of large and medium - sized eggs increased month - on - month, while that of small - sized eggs decreased [1] 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The pre - Spring Festival stocking demand has started, and the circulation and production inventories are at historical lows. The previous low of the main contract may be a phased low, and there may be a second bottom - testing near contract expiration. The bottom - rebound grinding range may be between 2800 - 3400 [6] - **Strategies**: For the unilateral strategy, close out previous short positions, and either wait and see or lightly bet on a peak - season rebound. For the basis strategy and the calendar - spread strategy, wait and see [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 11.01% [6] - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about inventory depreciation, short egg futures (JD2603) to lock in finished - product profits (10% - 25% recommended ratio); if there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell call options (JD2603 - C - 3400); if concerned about inventory depreciation but not wanting to miss potential large price increases, buy out - of - the - money put options (JD2603 - P - 2900). For procurement management, if there are future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw - material prices, buy egg forward contracts (JD2603 - P - 2900) according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs; if there are no suitable prices on the futures market, sell put options; if concerned about rising procurement prices but not wanting to lock in profits in advance, buy out - of - the - money call options (JD2603 - C - 3400) [6] Chapter 2: Market Information 2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: In January 2026, the egg price and feed cost both increased, but the increase in egg price (16.72% from January 1 - 15) far exceeded that of feed cost (0.53%), leading to the egg - laying hen breeding industry turning from loss to profit. This improvement in profitability has significantly boosted farmers' confidence, resulting in stronger reluctance to sell and a slower market supply rhythm [8] - **Negative Information**: In the third week of November (collection date: November 20), the mutton price increased month - on - month, while the prices of pork products, eggs, chicken, commercial - generation chicks, live cattle, and laying - hen compound feed decreased month - on - month, and the prices of beef, fresh milk, corn, soybean meal, fattening - pig compound feed, and broiler - chicken compound feed remained flat [9] 2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the production areas Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The main egg futures contract 03 opened at 3040 yuan/500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3072 yuan/500KG at the end of the week, a 1.05% increase. The open interest was 263,000 contracts, an increase of 12,344 contracts from last week [10] 3.2 Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar - Spread Structure**: The overall egg calendar - spread shows a contango structure. Although the January - February spread shows a back structure, it follows the normal seasonal pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, with the overall structure being contango [12] - **Basis Structure**: The increase in the culled - chicken output has made the spot market strong. The basis of contract 01 has widened significantly, and the far - month basis has also strengthened [14] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current egg - laying hen breeding profit is gradually recovering and approaching the cost line. Seasonally, it is still the lowest in the past five years, giving farmers an incentive to cull hens. This week, the breeding profit remained in the red but is about to turn positive. Feed prices have rebounded, with the corn price strengthening periodically, leading to an increase in breeding costs. If the current breeding profit continues to be in the red, farmers' desire to recoup losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of hens [16] Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens in production was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The proportion of main - laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve and to - be - culled hens decreased. The proportion of hens over 450 days old dropped to 8.52%, a 0.04% month - on - month decrease; the proportion of main - laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 79.16%, a 0.26% month - on - month increase; the proportion of reserve hens under 120 days old dropped to 12.32%, a 0.22% month - on - month decrease. The egg - laying rate remained flat month - on - month [19] - **Chicken Chick Situation**: Chicken chick sales increased slightly in December. The total sales of commercial - generation chicken chicks from 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 39.59 million, a 0.10% month - on - month increase. The egg - laying hen breeding is still in the red, but the strong increase in egg and old - hen prices has turned the breeding profit positive (this week's average weekly egg profit was about 0.13 yuan), directly boosting farmers' confidence in replenishment. Chicken chick orders from breeding enterprises are generally scheduled until the end of February and early March, with some until mid - March, indicating guaranteed future demand [21] - **Culled - Chicken Situation**: There is a divergence between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data on culled - chicken volume. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase this month, and the market's disagreement over the data is growing [23] 5.2 Consumption Situation - Egg sales in the main sales areas increased, while the egg arrival volume at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased [26] 5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production - link inventory and the circulation - link inventory were at multi - year lows, at 0.26 days and 0.48 days respectively [28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Asset Allocation**: In the equity market, Chinese stocks have high return odds, while US stocks need to be carefully differentiated, and Japanese stocks offer short - term event - driven opportunities. In the fixed - income market, the Chinese bond market will likely fluctuate, and the US bond market will be volatile. In commodities and foreign exchange, crude oil will be highly volatile, the value of gold will be prominent, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to fluctuate around the equilibrium level with a mild appreciation basis [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar before the Spring Festival. The appreciation space depends on the strength of the US dollar index and the central bank's regulation of the RMB exchange rate [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The short - term adjustment of the stock index is only a slowdown in rhythm, not a trend reversal. It is expected to strengthen again after the adjustment [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market may need new catalysts to continue rising. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [5][6]. - **Commodities** - **Carbonate Lithium**: There is support on the demand side before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the industry fundamentals support its value, but beware of the impact on downstream demand. Investors can look for structural long - making opportunities [7][8]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, pay attention to polysilicon enterprises' production resumption. In the medium - term, polysilicon prices may decline, but industrial silicon has support at the bottom [8][10][11]. - **Copper**: The copper price is affected by multiple events. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations and avoid new positions above 100,000 yuan [11][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may rise in the long - term; alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [15][16]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the bottom in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe the entry opportunity after a significant correction [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The trend is volatile, and the quota issuance rhythm is the core factor [19]. - **Tin**: It may maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lead**: It will mainly fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds** - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal has limited downward space, and rapeseed meal may be re - priced internationally [22][23]. - **Oils**: The support for rapeseed oil is weakening, and attention can be paid to the narrowing of the rapeseed - palm oil price difference [24][25]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak long - term trend, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a sluggish cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27][28]. - **Asphalt**: The basis may be passively strengthened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread [28][29]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a high - level wide - range shock. Be wary of the callback risk during the Spring Festival [31][32][35]. - **Gold and Silver**: They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern. Long - term bullish, but pay attention to position control [35][36]. - **Chemicals** - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current situation is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term, but there may be a phased correction in the short - term [42][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The excess supply will suppress the valuation, and the "reversal" may rely on macro - narrative [44][45]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical logic [46]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [48][49]. - **PE**: It may maintain a weak trend in the short - term [49][50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene is relatively strong, but do not chase high prices [50][51][52]. - **Rubber**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][68][69]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions, with a possible short - term correction [54][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash has an over - supply expectation; glass has a weak supply - demand pattern [56][57]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise in the short - term, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [57][58]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is over - valued in the short - term, but there is support at the bottom [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the macro - sentiment and the resumption of domestic mines after the Spring Festival [62]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They may oscillate at the bottom after the correction [62][63]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Hogs**: The price will continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend change in the short - term [64][65]. - **Cotton**: It may fluctuate in a narrow range, and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [65][66]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and pay attention to the production progress in Thailand and India [66][67]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the near - term contracts [68]. - **Apples**: The disk may continue to decline if the Spring Festival stocking does not improve [70][71]. - **Red Dates**: The price will likely fluctuate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [72]. - **Logs**: The 03 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 795 yuan, and consider the 3 - 5 positive spread [73][74][75]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Market News**: The US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries; China adjusts the minimum down - payment ratio for commercial housing mortgages; China's electricity consumption in 2025 exceeded 10 trillion kWh; the CSRC emphasizes market stability [1]. - **Core Logic**: Five core logic lines for asset allocation are proposed, covering the Fed's policy, geopolitics, global growth sources, social vulnerability, and policy cycle differences [1]. - **Exchange Rate**: The RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar before the Spring Festival, and its appreciation is affected by the US dollar index and central bank regulation [3]. - **Stock Index Futures**: The short - term adjustment of the stock index is temporary, and it is expected to strengthen again [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market needs new catalysts, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the medium - term and wait in the short - term [5][6]. Commodities - **New Energy** - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price dropped last week, but the demand is supported before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the industry fundamentals are stable [7]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon fluctuates widely, and polysilicon focuses on inventory reduction. Pay attention to polysilicon enterprises' production resumption [8][10]. - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The price dropped last week due to multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [11][14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may rise in the long - term; alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term; casting aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [15][16]. - **Zinc**: There is support at the bottom in the short - term, and it is advisable to observe the entry opportunity after a significant correction [18]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The trend is volatile, and the quota issuance rhythm is the core factor [19]. - **Tin**: It may maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations [20]. - **Lead**: It will mainly fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Oils and Fats and Feeds** - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is weak, the domestic soybean meal has limited downward space, and rapeseed meal may be re - priced internationally [22][23]. - **Oils**: The support for rapeseed oil is weakening, and attention can be paid to the narrowing of the rapeseed - palm oil price difference [24][25]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil has a weak long - term trend, and the low - sulfur fuel oil has a sluggish cracking spread. It is recommended to wait and see [26][27]. - **Asphalt**: The basis may be passively strengthened, and it is recommended to pay attention to the positive spread [28][29]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: They are in a high - level wide - range shock. Be wary of the callback risk during the Spring Festival [31][32]. - **Gold and Silver**: They are in an easy - to - rise and hard - to - fall pattern. Long - term bullish, but pay attention to position control [35][36]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price dropped, and the offset paper futures are bearish. It is recommended to wait and see [38][40][41]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical changes and domestic device maintenance [41][42]. - **PTA - PX**: It is recommended to buy on dips in the long - term, but there may be a phased correction in the short - term [42][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The excess supply will suppress the valuation, and the "reversal" may rely on macro - narrative [44][45]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the uncertainty of the geopolitical logic [46]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the actual implementation of device maintenance [48][49]. - **PE**: It may maintain a weak trend in the short - term [49][50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Styrene is relatively strong, but do not chase high prices [50][51][52]. - **Rubber**: The fundamental pressure still exists, and it is recommended to wait and see [53][68][69]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions, with a possible short - term correction [54][55]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash has an over - supply expectation; glass has a weak supply - demand pattern [56][57]. - **Propylene**: The price may rise in the short - term, and pay attention to geopolitical and device changes [57][58]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They will maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [59]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is over - valued in the short - term, but there is support at the bottom [59][60][61]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Pay attention to the macro - sentiment and the resumption of domestic mines after the Spring Festival [62]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They may oscillate at the bottom after the correction [62][63]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The price will continue to fluctuate, and it is difficult to have a trend change in the short - term [64][65]. - **Cotton**: It may fluctuate in a narrow range, and pay attention to downstream imports and orders [65][66]. - **Sugar**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and pay attention to the production progress in Thailand and India [66][67]. - **Eggs**: The price is supported before the Spring Festival, and it is advisable to buy on dips in the near - term contracts [68]. - **Apples**: The disk may continue to decline if the Spring Festival stocking does not improve [70][71]. - **Red Dates**: The price will likely fluctuate at a low level in the short - term and be under pressure in the long - term [72]. - **Logs**: The 03 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 795 yuan, and consider the 3 - 5 positive spread [73][74][75].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Recently, there have been signs of adjustment in non-ferrous varieties, with selling pressure emerging at higher levels. The strong upward trend in non-ferrous metals and precious metals is essentially driven by the new economic logic, specifically the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new energy and AI economies. However, their valuations are slightly high. The anti-involution logic of low-valuation varieties is gradually advancing. The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to 150,000 tons, approaching the low limit in 2015. The national policy is determined to rectify involution-style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti-involution may play a role in the theme market in 2026 [2][5] - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week still revolved around non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices rose, risks also accumulated, and exchanges at home and abroad introduced corresponding measures to control risks. After the decline of the non-ferrous hot spots, the anti-involution theme may be able to take over [4] Summary by Directory Market Overview - The hot spots in the commodity market in the past week centered on non-ferrous and precious metal varieties. As prices increased, the risks also grew, and exchanges at home and abroad took steps to manage risks. The market's hot money may look for the next theme market [4] Variety Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Gold coins have been falling continuously in recent months, breaking below the 50 mark, and gold has shown continuous stagnant growth, so adjustments need to be watched out for [4] - **Agricultural Products**: It is rumored that the initial agreement on Sino-Canadian trade was reached on Friday, and the tariff on rapeseed may be lowered. The market has already priced in this expectation, causing rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal to open significantly lower on Friday night. The global soybean supply and demand pattern remains weak, but the support around 1000 for US soybeans is still effective [4] - **Chemical Industry**: In 2026, the chemical industry will generally operate within the anti-involution framework. The national policy emphasizes the supply and demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products is at the limit [4] - **Black Sector**: Steel is one of the key varieties for anti-involution, and the downward space for coal is also limited, and the supply guarantee market is coming to an end [4] Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital was 8.809 billion. The precious metal sector had 9.738 billion, a decrease of 1.862 billion in the non-ferrous sector, an increase of 1.281 billion in the black sector, a decrease of 189 million in the energy sector, a decrease of 213 million in the chemical industry, an increase of 281 million in the feed breeding sector, an increase of 1.308 billion in the oil and fat sector, and a decrease of 587 million in the soft commodity sector [9] - **Black and Non-ferrous Weekly Data**: It includes the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various black and non-ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and gold [9] - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It shows the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various energy and chemical varieties such as fuel oil, low-sulfur oil, and asphalt [11] - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It presents the price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position difference percentile, and annualized basis of various agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12] Graphs - There are graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, oil and fat varieties, energy varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non-ferrous plate varieties [13][15][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tracking logic of copper prices has shifted from "fundamentals" back to "pre - holiday supply - demand". The US CPI growth remained stable in December, with core CPI slightly lower than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in January and March. Global copper speculative net - long funds in the three major exchanges significantly reduced their positions, and the market's fear of high prices became more evident. On the fundamental side, the spot smelting income of refined copper continued to rise week - on - week, and smelting enterprises had a high willingness to purchase. The Yangshan copper premium declined, and the sellers' shipping sentiment decreased. The "mismatch" between supply and demand due to the lack of downstream consumption growth and short - term copper inflows led to passive inventory replenishment, resulting in a significant increase in domestic copper inventories [2]. - In the short - term, the market may be calm before the Fed's interest rate decision at the end of the month. Futures prices will more likely follow the spot trading situation, with limited price fluctuations, and funds will still compete around the 100,000 yuan mark. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [3]. - Cathode copper is in the middle of an upward trend, with a medium - risk - return ratio for going long (1%), suggesting moderate participation; LME copper is also in the middle of an upward trend, with a low - risk - return ratio for going long (0.93%), suggesting cautious participation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Macro - factors**: US CPI growth was stable in December, with core CPI slightly lower than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts in January and March. The Fed's probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in January is 5%, and the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 95%. By March, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.8%, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 78.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 0.9% [2]. - **Fundamental factors**: The spot smelting income of refined copper continued to rise week - on - week, and smelting enterprises had a high willingness to purchase. The Yangshan copper premium declined, and the sellers' shipping sentiment decreased. The "mismatch" between supply and demand due to the lack of downstream consumption growth and short - term copper inflows led to passive inventory replenishment, resulting in a significant increase in domestic copper inventories [2]. - **Market factors**: When prices were fluctuating at high levels during the week, both long and short funds reduced their positions to adjust portfolios. The market may be calm next week before the Fed's interest rate decision, and futures prices will more likely follow the spot trading situation [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper is in the middle of an upward trend, with a medium - risk - return ratio for going long (1%); LME copper is also in the middle of an upward trend, with a low - risk - return ratio for going long (0.93%) [3]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Do not recommend opening new positions above 100,000 yuan; continue to hold long positions established in the 90,000 - 95,000 yuan range, and flexibly adjust long positions established in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range; aggressive investors can consider combination strategies; enterprises needing to purchase spot copper can make batch purchases at appropriate prices considering capital pressure, or consider over - the - counter option hedging plans suitable for range - bound markets without considering capital pressure [3]. - **Base - spread, Month - spread, and Cross - border Spread Strategies**: The base - spread strategy is bearish, with a 3% probability of expansion in the next 1 - 2 weeks. The month - spread strategy is neutral, with a 55% probability of expansion. The cross - border spread is within the normal range, and it is recommended to wait and see [11]. 3.1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Suggestions - For enterprises with low raw material inventories worried about price increases, they can consider buying the main futures contract when prices fall to support levels (the first support level is around 99,000 yuan, and the second is around 96,000 yuan), buying up - and - out accumulator options in the 96,000 - 105,650 yuan range, or using a combination of selling put options and buying call options in the 95,000 - 100,000 yuan range [15]. 3.1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - Due to the roll - over of the February contract and reduced liquidity, the hedging strategy of buying this contract was closed, waiting for an opportunity to re - establish positions. The risk - reversal synthetic long strategy had a small profit when the call option became in - the - money during the sharp rise in futures prices last week, and then entered a range - bound period [16][17]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US December CPI was stable at 2.7% year - on - year, and core CPI was 2.6%, indicating controllable inflation with resilience. State Grid announced that its fixed - asset investment during the 14th Five - Year Plan period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the 13th Five - Year Plan period, which will drive the development of the new power system industry chain. In 2025, the cumulative production of cathode copper by 24 sample enterprises was 12.3389 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.38%. In 2026, the copper production of Chile is expected to be between 550,000 and 570,000 tons, higher than last year's estimate of 540,000 tons [19]. - **Negative Information**: The probability of a Fed rate cut in January and March decreased. Nvidia corrected the copper demand data for data centers, significantly reducing the expected copper demand. Domestic copper inventories continued to accumulate, with Shanghai and Jiangsu markets increasing and the Guangdong market decreasing. The copper production of Kamoa - Kakula's smelter is expected to reach an annualized 500,000 tons by the end of 2026. Luoyang Molybdenum's 2026 copper production guidance is between 760,000 and 820,000 tons [20][21][22]. - **Exchange Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin, trading limit, and opening quantity of silver, tin, and nickel futures contracts to prompt investors to manage risks and maintain market stability [24]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretations Next week, important macro - economic indicators will be released, including China's fixed - asset investment, industrial added - value, GDP, and the US GDP deflator, initial jobless claims, PCE price index, etc. [27] 3.3 Chapter 3: Interpretation of Disk Price - Volume and Funds - **Domestic Market Interpretation**: Affected by exchange regulatory measures, US tariff policies, and Nvidia's report, funds flowed out, and futures prices fell from high levels. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai copper weighted index decreased week - on - week, and market speculation fluctuated around the median [29]. - **International Market Interpretation**: LME copper and Comex copper reached new highs and then declined. The LC spread narrowed to within - 60 US dollars per ton, which may slow down the inventory accumulation of Comex copper. However, the open interest of the active Comex copper contract remained at a high level, and speculators reduced their net - long positions [31]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Analysis of Spot Prices and Profits 3.4.1 Spot Prices and Smelting Profits - The spot smelting income of refined copper continued to rise week - on - week, and smelting enterprises had a high willingness to purchase. The Yangshan copper premium declined, and the sellers' shipping sentiment decreased. After the holiday, the trading sentiment in the spot market improved slightly, with the purchase intensity index of electrolytic copper higher than the sales sentiment. The downstream industries of copper tubes and copper strips are expected to see a continued week - on - week increase in their weekly operating rates [38][39]. 3.4.2 Import Profits and Import Volumes - The copper import profit "first declined and then rebounded", and the import profit of recycled copper increased significantly. The Shanghai - London ratio declined, the LC spread narrowed, and the shipping willingness in the bonded area was strong, putting pressure on the Yangshan copper premium. In December 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates increased month - on - month and year - on - year, while the imports of unwrought copper and copper products decreased year - on - year. The volume of copper concentrates arriving in China in January will decrease month - on - month [41]. 3.4.3 Inventory Analysis - Global visible copper inventories continued to rise. Comex copper continued to accumulate inventory, with a total of over 540,000 tons. China's copper inventories increased significantly month - on - month, and LME copper inventories also increased. The increase in domestic copper inventories was mainly due to the "mismatch" between supply and demand, resulting in passive inventory replenishment [44]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectations 3.5.1 Supply Deduction - In 2025, the global copper concentrate production was expected to be 19.871 million metal tons, and the supply - demand balance was - 166,000 metal tons. In 2026, the global copper concentrate production is expected to be 20.316 million metal tons, and the supply - demand balance is - 456,000 metal tons. In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.159 million tons, higher than expected. In January 2026, China's electrolytic copper production is expected to be 1.1636 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45 tons, mainly due to smelter maintenance, statistical cycle issues, and tight copper concentrate supply [49][50]. 3.5.2 Demand Expectations - In January, the operating rates of most copper - related industries are expected to continue to increase slightly month - on - month. The copper foil industry has the highest prosperity, followed by the electrolytic copper rod industry, copper rod industry, copper strip industry, and recycled copper rod industry. The operating rate of the electrolytic copper rod industry increased the most, mainly due to post - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises and pre - holiday inventory building by enterprises [52]. 3.5.3 Price Expectations - Affected by multiple events, domestic and international copper prices first rose and then fell. The market sentiment fluctuated. Futures prices may be calm next week before the Fed's interest rate decision, following the spot trading situation, with limited price fluctuations, and funds will still compete around the 100,000 yuan mark. It is recommended to pay attention to volume - price fluctuations [55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro - sentiment declined last week, ferroalloys showed a trend of rising first and then falling, and fluctuating downward. The industrial side's hedging at high prices suppressed the price increase. Ferroalloys are supported by the cost side and may show a bottom - oscillating trend after the short - term correction [2]. - The production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and the production reduction trend has gradually flattened and turned upward, with production starting to gradually recover. However, the demand improvement is limited, and high inventory further suppresses demand. De - stocking may still need to be achieved through production cuts [63]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment decline last week led to a fall - back in ferroalloys. Industrial hedging at high prices restricted price increases. Silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week, but its warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96%. Silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.48% week - on - week [2]. - On the supply side, the decline in hot - metal production last week reduced the demand for ferroalloys. Although the profit of ferroalloys has recovered recently, the downstream demand is weak, and the driving force for production reduction is not strong, with production expected to fluctuate slightly around the current level. Silicon - iron production decreased by 0.40% and silicon - manganese production decreased by 0.23% week - on - week [2]. - On the demand side, the decline in hot - metal production reduced the demand for ferroalloys. The downstream five major steel products may enter a seasonal inventory - accumulation state, also reducing the demand for ferroalloys [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: Range - bound oscillation. - Price range: The price range of the silicon - iron main contract 2603 is 5300 - 5800 yuan/ton, and that of the silicon - manganese main contract 2603 is 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton. - Basis strategy: Wait - and - see. - Calendar - spread strategy: Wait - and - see. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Wait - and - see [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Ferroalloy price range forecast: The price range of silicon - iron in the next month is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.8%. The price range of silicon - manganese is 5300 - 6000 yuan/ton with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.18% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 10.5% [7]. - Ferroalloy hedging: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 15% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5800 - 6000 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2603, SM2603) with a 25% hedging ratio at the entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton for silicon - iron and 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton for silicon - manganese [7]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Anti - involution expectations; accelerating the comprehensive green and low - carbon transformation and controlling high - energy - consumption and high - emission projects effectively from next year; the 15th Five - Year Plan; magnesium ingot production increased by 7.7% month - on - month in November; downstream steel profits gradually improved; silicon - manganese inventory decreased by 2.5% week - on - week; silicon - iron inventory decreased by 7.8% week - on - week [9][10]. - **Negative information**: Not clearly listed in a summarized form, but factors such as the decline in hot - metal production and high inventory of silicon - manganese are negative factors [2]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the US will announce the weekly initial jobless claims [17]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Analyzed the closing prices and positions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [14]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar - spread Structure - Silicon - manganese warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 32.96% week - on - week. The silicon - manganese inventory base is at a five - year high, with great de - stocking pressure. The improvement in ferroalloy profits may lead to a continued increase in production, putting pressure on supply [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The marginal improvement of ferroalloy profits led to a weakening of the motivation for production cuts, and production began to increase slightly month - on - month [32]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the relationship between silicon - iron export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [62]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - On the supply side, the production profit of ferroalloys has improved marginally, and production has started to gradually recover. On the demand side, although hot - metal production may stop falling and steel production has increased month - on - month, the downstream consumption demand is difficult to rise sustainably in the off - season, and the improvement in ferroalloy demand is limited. High inventory further suppresses demand, and de - stocking may require production cuts [63]. 3.5.2 Supply - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly production of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, as well as the relationship between production profit and production, and the relationship between hot - metal production and ferroalloy production, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [66][67][68]. 3.5.3 Demand - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted weekly demand for silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in the five major steel products, as well as the relationship between hot - metal production, magnesium ingot production, steel enterprise profitability, and ferroalloy demand, and the relationship between ferroalloy export profit and export volume, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [70][71][74]. 3.5.4 Inventory - side and Deduction - Analyzed the historical and predicted seasonal inventory of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese, including enterprise inventory, warehouse - receipt inventory, and total inventory, but no specific conclusions are given in the text [85][90][92].