油料产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 靳晚冬（投资咨询证号：Z0022725） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 9.9% | 7.1% | | 菜粕：2250-2750 | 16.3% | 24.4% | 【利多解读】 【利空解读】 source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | 1 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pay attention to the central bank's policy operations. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, while in the medium - term, there is still room for an upward trend supported by the fundamentals. Mid - term long positions should be held, and short - term long positions at low levels can be closed at high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures continued the volatile pattern, with all varieties closing higher. The capital market remained tight, with DR001 around 1.53%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan [1] 3.2. Important Information - Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett stated that AI's productivity improvement might lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be truly "data - driven". The Fed governor Waller, a potential candidate for the Fed chair, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to weaken with a large adjustment amplitude today, but the bond market benefited little. Affected by the tax period, the capital market remained tight. With a lack of clear signals from monetary policy and light news, the market still lacks a strong driving force [3] 3.4. Trading Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 closed at 102.49, up 0.012 from the previous day; TF2512 at 105.91, up 0.02; T2512 at 108.495, up 0.03; TL2512 at 116.57, up 0.11 [6] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 925 to 83,687 hands; TF contract positions decreased by 1,178 to 158,973 hands; T contract positions decreased by 164 to 285,339 hands; TL contract positions increased by 563 to 185,923 hands [6] - **Contract Transactions and Changes**: TS main contract transactions increased by 2,388 to 34,723 hands; TF main contract transactions increased by 3,133 to 51,916 hands; T main contract transactions increased by 1,244 to 63,673 hands; TL main contract transactions increased by 1,158 to 89,428 hands [6] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0276 to - 0.0256; TF basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0266 to - 0.014; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0317 to 0.081; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0414 to 0.0942 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13300-13800 | 0.0401 | 0.0064 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 库存偏高，担 | 心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥 补企业的生产成本 | CF2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 13700-13800 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉 | CF601C1380 | 卖出 | 75% | 250-300 | | | | | 价上涨还可以锁定现货卖 ...

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 900-1200 | 21.36% | 46.3% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1300 | 17.89% | 11.0% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | （%） | | | | 向 | | | | | | | | | | 库 | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据 企业的库存情况，做空玻璃期货来 | FG2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 1250 | | | 存 | 产成品库存偏 高，担心玻 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock index continued to adjust today, with relatively large declines in small and medium - cap stock indices. The market is currently dominated by the game between policy - driven positive expectations and the increasing willingness of funds to take profits. In the short - term, the news is relatively flat, and the signal of favorable policies is weakening, increasing the pressure for index correction. The decline in the Asia - Pacific market today has further increased the downward pressure on A - shares. The previously strong chemical and battery sectors have corrected, while the AI sector has strengthened, showing a high - to - low rotation. The basis of stock index futures shows differentiation. For IF, except for the next - quarter contract whose basis declined, the basis of other contracts converged. The basis of IH contracts declined, while the basis of IC and IM contracts rebounded significantly, breaking away from the historical percentile below 10%. The basis of stock index futures of stock indices with large declines for two consecutive days has strengthened significantly. Coupled with the slight rebound of the index in the late trading today, it indicates that there is support below, and the market sentiment is not completely pessimistic. In general, it is expected to continue to adjust in the short - term, but the expectation of favorable policies provides support at the bottom, and the downward space of the stock index is limited [5]. Market Review - The stock indices closed down collectively today, with the large - cap stock indices relatively more resilient. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.65%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets increased by 1.5277 billion yuan. In the stock index futures market, IH declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [3]. Important Information - The China - Germany High - Level Financial Dialogue was held in Beijing, reaching a number of achievements and consensuses, ending the trade tension. The favorite candidate for the Fed Chairman, Fed Governor Waller, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [4]. Strategy Recommendation Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.41 | -0.23 | -0.85 | -0.69 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1863 | 5.4759 | 13.444 | 21.7767 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | 0.7571 | -0.2437 | 1.7523 | 2.044 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.8688 | 9.7691 | 25.4019 | 36.202 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | 0.5967 | -0.3423 | 0.8185 | 0.6867 | [6] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.81 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.92 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.31 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 1926.068 | | Trading volume change (100 million yuan) | 1.5277 | [7]

周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁矿石12合约月度价格预测（11月） | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 770-826 | 18.07% | 11.3% | 铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/11/18 source： 南华研究 1.可交割的主流中高品粉矿港口库存持续走低，支撑近月合约和基差 2. 美国政府重新开门，财政力量回归 3.钢厂边际减产，黑色产业链矛盾边际有所缓解 4.在钢厂利润低迷时，主要原料焦煤价格大跌，为铁矿石价格腾出了空间，形成了短期支撑 【利空因素】 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（11月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | | 买卖方向 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2512 | 空 | 25% | 820-830 | | | | | ...

甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 联系邮箱：zhangbo2022@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 跌 | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——驱动未明，等待远月利多兑现 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场交易的重点来自于全球油脂的供需平衡问题，核心驱动主要在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心 矛盾主要为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力能否被增长的需求所消化。10月MPOB报告中马来产量增幅超11%，库存增幅超 4%，出口大幅提振超18%，需求支撑下马棕利空出尽，随着棕榈油正式进入减产季，进入去库后将提升棕榈 油性价比。而印尼端B50计划不确定性仍存，需进一步政策指引；但印尼种植园所有权转移下，产量也有受限 预期，加上年底B40计划支撑，出口潜力依然受限。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，EPA原定11月公布的最终确定美国生物燃料义务量目前延期，中美贸易和 谈进度目前较乐观提振美豆，支撑豆油相对偏强，但美豆恢复购买后国内豆油供应压力或增加，成本支撑逻 辑走完后或转化为供应压力现实，且美豆出口好转，美国政府对生物燃料政策的力度有减弱可能，等待最 ...

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年11月18日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 推荐套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 远月期货合约 | 买入 | 10% | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划，担 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产 | LC2601-P-80000 | 卖出 | 10% | | | 关性 | 心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨导 致采购成本上涨的风险 | 计划需买入对应生产计划的期货 合约锁定采购成本 | | | | | 采购管理 | | | | 期权组合策略 | 卖出看跌期权+买入看 | 20% | | | | | | | 涨期权 | | | | | 产品价格有相关性：未来有生产 | 为防止采到碳酸锂后库 ...