南华干散货运输市场日报 —当日，农产品发运大幅增加，支撑巴拿马型船、大灵便型船需求，BPI运价指数环比上 涨 2025年08月20日 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 一、总结 当周BPI运价指数周环比转涨，同时（大）灵便型船运输市场涨幅扩大，运价周环比上涨超3%。但BDI综合运 价指数和BCI运价指数环比下跌，且跌幅扩大。 从主要港口船舶停靠数量、商品发运、用船需求去看：工业品发运需求继续保持强劲态势，比如煤炭、铁矿 石及其他干货发运量均维持高位，支撑海岬型船和巴拿马型船用船需求；农产品发运需求也恢复增加态势， 主要表现在玉米、大豆、豆粕进口发运上。（在中美继续暂停加征对等关税90天期间，大豆贸易值得进一步 关注，不论是运费还是国内商品价格，都会受其影响。） BCI期现货价格比较 source： 同花顺,南华研究,路透 美元/天 BCI运价指数(右轴) BCI-C10_14航线运价 24/02 24/04 24/06 24/08 24/10 24/12 25/02 25/04 25/06 0 2000 4000 20000 40000 二、现货指数回顾 2.1.BDI运价指数分析：BCI周环比大跌 ...

集装箱运输市场日报 —— 哈马斯妥协，MSK新一周现舱报价降幅缩小 2025/8/19 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1450~1550 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格先震荡略偏下行，午后有所回升。截至收盘，除EC2508合约 略有上行，其余各月合约价格均略有回落。从交易所排名 ...

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年8月20日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 268090 | 245000-263000 | 14.36% | 26.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2510C275000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率合适时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锡主力期货合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices continued to fluctuate on Tuesday and are expected to remain volatile in the short term. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton has been raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The Fed's meeting minutes and Powell's speech may have limited impact on copper prices, while the strong support of the US dollar index exerts pressure on the overall valuation of non - ferrous metals [3]. - There are both利多 and利空 factors for copper prices.利多 factors include reaching a tariff agreement, a decline in the US dollar index due to increased interest - rate cut expectations, and the upward shift of the support level.利空 factors include tariff policy fluctuations, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,890 yuan per ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan per ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 82,000 yuan per ton and sell 25% of CU2510C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. - For raw material management with low raw material inventory and concerns about price increases, buy 75% of Shanghai Copper main futures contracts around 77,000 yuan per ton [2]. Copper Futures Market Data | Futures Contract | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,890 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,870 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,850 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,684.5 | - 67.5 | - 0.69% | | Shanghai - London Ratio | Ratio | 8.21 | 0.03 | 0.37% | [6] Copper Spot Data | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,100 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Shanghai Wumaotong | Yuan/ton | 79,050 | - 230 | - 0.29% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve | Yuan/ton | 78,970 | - 180 | - 0.23% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,220 | - 210 | - 0.26% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 195 | - 30 | - 13.33% | | Shanghai Wumaotong Premium | Yuan/ton | 130 | - 40 | - 23.53% | | Guangdong Southern Reserve Premium | Yuan/ton | 155 | - 45 | - 22.5% | | Yangtze River Non - ferrous Premium | Yuan/ton | 185 | - 5 | - 2.63% | [12] Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread | Spread Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,049.89 | 36.38 | 3.59% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | 1,491.35 | - 0.7 | - 0.05% | | Price Advantage (Tax - included) | Yuan/ton | - 441.46 | 37.08 | - 7.75% | | Current Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 5,735 | 30 | 0.53% | | Reasonable Scrap - to - Refined Spread (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | 6,191.97 | - 4.86 | - 0.08% | | Price Advantage (Tax - excluded) | Yuan/ton | - 456.97 | 34.86 | - 7.09% | [17] Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts total 25,498 tons (unchanged), and International Copper warehouse receipts total 8,780 tons, a decrease of 5,571 tons (- 38.82%). - LME copper inventory totals 155,150 tons, a decrease of 450 tons (- 0.29%). - COMEX copper inventory totals 269,943 tons, an increase of 4,054 tons (1.52%) [21][23][24]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is 332.39 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.25 yuan (0.99%). The copper concentrate TC is - 37.67 US dollars per ton, unchanged [25].

南华贵金属日报:聚焦全球央行年会 贵金属偏弱整理 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月20日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场偏弱整理，美指回升形成一定压力，且俄乌和平谈判预期削弱地缘避险溢价。目前市场聚焦 于周五全球央行年会对美联储未来降息前景指引。周边资产看，美短债震荡，中长债收益率回落，比特币明 显下跌，原油调整，中国股市震荡，欧股上涨美股整体下跌，南华有色金属指数下跌调整。最终COMEX黄金 2512合约收报3358.9美元/盎司，-0.57%；美白银2509合约收报于37.33美元/盎司，-1.84%。 SHFE黄金 2510主力合约775.06元/克，-0.13%；SHFE白银2510合约收9187元/千克，-0.25%。地缘上，美俄乌三方 会晤地点考虑布达佩斯、日内瓦甚至俄罗斯，美媒报道，特朗普称，乌克兰可能需要做出领土让步才能达成 潜在协议。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期保持平稳。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为13.9%，降息25个 基点的概率为86.1%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为6. ...

LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/08/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） LPG日报 沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 3750-4400 | 15.47% | 5.99% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价 格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根 据企业的库存情况，做空PG期货 | PG2510 | 卖出 | 50% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 | | | | | | | | | 本 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收 ...

美钢铝关税涉及范围扩大，后市如何看待 揭婷（投资咨询证号：Z0022453） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 当地时间8月15日，美国特朗普政府宣布扩大对钢铁和铝进口征收50%关税的范围，将数百种衍生产品 纳入加征关税清单。美国商务部在8月15日晚间发布的《联邦公报》公告中表示，工业与安全局已将407个产 品编码加入《美国协调关税表》，这些产品将因所含钢铁和铝成分而被加征额外关税。公告称，这些产品中 非钢铁和铝的部分，将适用特朗普总统对特定国家商品所征收的关税税率，扩大的关税清单将于8月18日正式 生效。 | 时间 | 事件 | | --- | --- | | 2025 年 2 月 10 日 | 特朗普签署文件,宣布对所有美国进口钢铁和铝征收 25% 的关税, | | | 同时取消对部分贸易伙伴的钢铝免税配额和豁免政策 | | 2025 年 3 月 12 日 | 美国对所有进口钢铁和铝征收 25% 关税的举措正式生效 | | 2025 年 5 月 30 日 | 特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的集会上表示,将把进口钢铁和铝的关 | | | 税从 25% 提高至 50%，随后在社交媒体上发文称该决定从 ...

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Daily Report on Risk Management of Pig Enterprises - Date: August 19, 2025 - Author: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply increase trend in the pig market is obvious, and both the industry and funds are aware of it. The futures market has priced in the expectation of oversupply. The fundamental situation remains one of oversupply, while policy expectations provide an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.94%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.75% [2]. 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations Inventory Management - For enterprises with high product inventory and concerns about inventory impairment, they can short - sell LH2511 pig futures at a recommended ratio of 20% to lock in finished - product profits, sell call options (either over - the - counter or exchange - traded) at a 20% ratio, and buy out - of - the - money put options [2]. Procurement Management - For enterprises with future procurement plans and concerns about rising raw material prices, they can buy pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in procurement costs, sell put options (either over - the - counter or exchange - traded) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - Frequent policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs. The supply increase trend is well - recognized, and the futures market has reflected the oversupply expectation. The fundamental situation is oversupply, and policy expectations offer an opportunity for arbitrage [3]. 3.4利多解读 - No information provided in the report. 3.5利空解读 - Positive factors: Improved macro - sentiment boosts market confidence, the standard - fat price spread is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and there is a medium - to - long - term expectation of production capacity reduction from the policy side [5]. - Negative factors: The inventory of breeding sows remains high, the inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high, the slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises remains high with losses in slaughtering profit, and downstream terminal consumption is weak [5]. 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average pig spot price is 13.62 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0.01 yuan and a growth rate of 0.07%. Prices vary by region, such as 13.63 yuan/kg in Henan (up 0.04 yuan, 0.29%), 13.65 yuan/kg in Hunan (down 0.02 yuan, - 0.15%), etc. [8]. 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of different pig futures contracts are as follows: Pig 01 is 14,200 yuan/ton, Pig 03 is 13,330 yuan/ton, Pig 05 is 13,810 yuan/ton, Pig 07 is 14,260 yuan/ton, Pig 09 is 13,780 yuan/ton, and Pig 11 is 13,900 yuan/ton, all with no daily change [9]. 3.8 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - For example, the spread of LH01 - 03 is 870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 2.25%); the basis of Henan - 01 contract is - 570 yuan/ton, with no change [17][19].

丙烯产业风险管理日报 2025/08/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 丙烯价格区间预测 下旬万华蓬莱90万吨PDH及金能90万吨PDH存检修计划；京博检修PP线预期8月下旬复产；整体山东市场供需差缩 | | | source： 丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为防止存货跌价损失，可根据企业库 存情况，逢高空配丙烯期货来锁定利 | PL2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 6600-6700 | | | | | 润 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本， 若现货价格上涨还可以锁定卖出价格 | PL2601C6800 | 卖出 | 50% | 120-160 | | 采购管理 | 采购常备库存偏 低，希望根据订单 | 空 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：国内财政支出增速加快 【市场资讯】1）中印外长会谈达成 10 项成果。中印边界问题特别代表会晤达成 10 点共 识。2）美俄乌三方会晤地点考虑布达佩斯、日内瓦甚至俄罗斯。美媒：特朗普称，乌克兰 可能需要做出领土让步才能达成潜在协议。3）美商务部周二正式宣布，将风力涡轮机等 407 类钢铁和铝衍生产品纳入关税清单。特朗普钢铝关税范围陡然扩大，美国进口商措手 不及。尽管特朗普豁免了关税，美国铜业公司仍宣布涨价。4）财政部：前 7 月全国一般公 共预算累计增幅首次转正，印花税增长 20.7%，政府性基金预算收入同比微降。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，尽管，当下经济增速呈现边际放缓态势，但不必过分焦虑。目前 一揽子稳经济政策正逐步落地见效，除育儿相关支持政策外，促消费等政策也在持续出台。 若后续经济数据继续走低，相关政策有望进一步加码发力。从已公布的数据来看，广义财 政收入呈现回暖态势，收入完成压力有所缓解；与此同时，财政支出增速加快，显示政府 稳增长力度明显。后续国内经济数据是否持续走弱仍存在不确定性，需持续跟踪高频数据。 海外方面，9 月是否降息仍存在不确定性，后续需重点关注美国经济数据的变化，以及 ...