橡胶与商品指数走势对比 橡胶与原油及石化指数走势 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 南华工业品指数 南华橡胶指数(右轴) 南华商品指数(右2轴) 点 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 3500 4000 4500 5000 150 175 200 225 250 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 RU主力收盘价 INE原油主力收盘价(右轴) 南华石油化工指数(右2元轴/桶) 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 400 500 600 700 800 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 . 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——节前基本面驱动有限，随情绪区间波动为主 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月9日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前橡胶基本面支撑与压力并存。上游原料进入低产季，库存与进口偏多，下游长假开 ...

南华期货生猪产业周报 ——节前备货即将结束 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月09日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周生猪市场陷入典型的"节前困境"，其核心矛盾在于：长期产能去化迟缓的背景下，短期供给的集中释放 与"旺季不旺"的终端需求发生激烈碰撞，导致猪价持续探底并击穿行业成本线。具体来看，节前养殖端出于资 金回笼与计划完成压力，推动大体重猪源及二次育肥猪集中上市，供给压力凸显；而终端消费受节前备货带 动的回暖力度有限，无法消化供应增量，市场呈现"供需双弱、供大于求"的格局。这一矛盾更因高企的出栏均 重与积压的二次育肥"活体库存"被进一步加剧，意味着供应压力已形成延续至节后淡季的预期。从根本上说， 当前疲弱态势源于行业产能去化进程缓慢，能繁母猪存栏居于高位，致使市场缺乏反转根基。值得注意的 是，2026年中央一号文件已将生猪产能调控升级为"综合调控"，标志着政策层面主动化解过剩产能的决心， 这将成为影响中长期格局的关键变量。 白条肉宰后均重季节性 source： 南华研究 千克 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

南华期货甲醇产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 甲醇最近行情仍然跟随地缘与有色，基本面最大的变化在于上周三伊朗ZPC装置回来一套(40%负荷).05 合约在上周三夜盘增仓5万余手，单边绝对价格并没有什么变化，产业定价更多体现在5-9反套上(伊朗装置提 前归来对05的压力大于03)。随着美伊谈判的恢复与有色贵金属的下跌，甲醇主力合约下跌。从交易角度看， 单边参与难度较大，一方面定价权基本不在产业内，另一方面交易节奏也极快在关注地缘的基础上也需要关 注有色等盘面的变化。从前两次地缘缓和(2318-2183,2394-2243)的结果看，甲醇主力合约的价格重心在不断 上行。此外临近春节山东甲醛等下游需求降负但联弘与阳煤等mto维持开车状态，山东整体需求还可以，随着 内地上游排库不断进行(上周内地去库5.58w)，内地节前还算健康。2400的甲醇或许很贵，但2200的甲醇也还 行，毕竟1月发运再超预期基数也还是低，05合约面临着下游投产，多头预期不到证伪的阶段。综上临近 ...

等待系统性风险释放结束 本周主要观点： 事实上，最近 2 个月屡次出现有色和反内卷品种的涨跌跷跷 板效应了，每当有色技术调整的时候，相关发内卷品种总能出现 反弹。在有色品种的多头赚钱效应下降后，其他主题行情需要承 接来自有色和贵金属的大量资金，综合来看，在国家政策推动 下，低估值品种或将成为春节后重点关注品种之一。国家政策决 心深入整治内卷式竞争，调节供给侧的动态调整能力，我们认为 2026 年的主题行情，反内卷或不可避免。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、政策不及预期； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 09 日 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 等待系统性风险释放结束 期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 09 日 周行情观点综述 等待系统性风险释放结束 期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 09 日 近一周 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，尿素价格持续上涨。但伴随价格上行，下游逐步抵触，现货成交转弱， 预计尿素价格短期回调，建议多单离场，节前空仓过节。 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 2 4 6 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 | | | 资金席位回测一览 * 远端交易预 ...

南华期货沥青产业周报 ——假期临近，交易热度逐渐下降 凌川惠（投资咨询资格证号：Z0019531 ） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 假期临近，现货端已早一步"提前过年"，需求端降至冰点。前期盘面的持续升水上涨，现货层面跟涨乏力，实 际成交热度和价格不尽人意。随着马瑞原油贴水报价的抬升，山东部分炼厂已开始转向其他重油资源，因此 所谓的原料紧张问题一直都不是制约地炼开工率的关键问题，但对远期的成本估值确有一定的抬升。因此， 未来一周沥青的行情更多的是跟随成本端原油进行波动。近期，原油波动的主线仍在地缘上，中东局势的不 稳定性放大了原油向上的脉冲。但小范围的地缘摩擦并不能扭转原油弱势的基本面和过剩格局。近期由于国 内柴油价格的持续萎靡，山东部分地炼成品油库存压力大，胀库对沥青的压制，或许在春节过后刚需启动发 现不及预期时价格将迎来一波流畅跌势。其他观点并无大的变化，随着假期临近交易热度或逐渐退温，节前 投资者需注意仓位风险控制。 沥青期货主力收盘价和山东地区沥青基差 source： 同花顺,南华研究,上海钢联 元/吨 沥青期货主力 ...

南华期货工业硅产业周报 ——供需双减，技术面有进一步下探态势 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月08日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周工业硅市场呈现震荡下跌格局。展望未来，工业硅期货价格走势的核心驱动逻辑将集中于以下因素：成 本端原材料价格变动情况、供给端停复产情况、需求端情况。 成本端，电力成本在工业硅生产成本结构中占比高达30%，而煤价波动对电力成本具备直接传导效应，进而 成为影响工业硅价格走势的关键因素。煤价的边际变动将直接作用于工业硅生产企业的成本线，近期煤价有 下跌迹象，后续需持续跟踪煤价波动节奏，以此研判工业硅成本端支撑力度的变化。 供给层面，金属硅产量继续下降，主要减量为新疆地区，后续新疆大厂减产计划预期逐步下行，2月工业硅产 量环比大幅下降约27.1%，同比亦转为负增长。需求层面，下游多晶硅企业有减产预期；当前多晶硅库存处 于高位，市场整体以去库存为主基调；同时需要注意的是，未来有可能炒作太空光伏的迹象，需关注钙钛矿 ...

∗ 近端交易逻辑 当下市场微观情绪已由多头踩踏转为节前的清冷僵持，主力合约在跌停后进入缩量震荡区间，暗示资金 避险意愿远超入场意愿。现货市场表现出明显的"结构性矛盾"：一方面高价抑制消费，另一方面流通货源 因物流停运而显紧凑，导致现货升水在盘面大跌后反而被迫抬升。月差结构上，近端 Back 结构因节前刚需仍 有支撑，但远端 Contango 趋势隐现。结尾直接点明，短期盘面处于"估值修正"后的阴跌阶段，既无逼空 逻辑也无大幅反转动能，价格将维持偏弱震荡。 南华期货锡产业周报 ——回吐涨幅，震荡为主 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锡价经历了从宏观亢奋到现实坍塌的剧烈回转，盘面在触及前期高点后因流动性预期逆转而高 位"跳水"，两日内回吐了 1 月下半月几乎全部涨幅。宏观上，"沃什交易"引发的鹰派转向直接扼杀了有 色金属的溢价空间，导致资金集体获利了结。与此同时，锡市基本面呈现出极度脆弱的"供需两淡"特征： 海外印尼 RKAB 政策担忧虽存但边际钝化，缅甸矿端虽未见显著放量但低位供应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated widely this week. The core logic driving the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side production suspension and resumption, downstream demand - side production scheduling, photovoltaic export rush, and anti - involution. The industry presents a "weak supply and weak demand" characteristic, with supply expansion slowing and downstream production under pressure. Due to the export tax - refund window in April, there may be an export rush for photovoltaic modules, but the overall market is mainly focused on inventory consumption [3]. - The polysilicon futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 83.6% [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The current polysilicon market is affected by supply - side production changes, downstream demand, export rush, and anti - involution. The industry shows a "weak supply and weak demand" situation, with supply - side production declining and downstream production also under pressure. The market is mainly consuming inventory, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution progress [3]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Polysilicon Futures Price Range**: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% in the past 3 years [9]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, including using futures contracts and option combinations, with recommended hedging ratios [9]. 3.2 Market Information - On January 31 (Saturday), some leading polysilicon companies held a meeting to discuss polysilicon market - related matters. On February 5, a photovoltaic industry - related meeting was held to focus on capacity optimization and price order rectification [11]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index closed at 49,536 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week increase of 5.06%. The trading volume was 12,451 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 47.72%, and the open interest was 65,885 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,229 lots. The PS2605 - PS2606 spread was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 470 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,610 lots, a week - on - week increase of 190 lots. The futures price is expected to face resistance at 52,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon fluctuated widely in the past week. The option open - interest PCR showed a weakening trend [17][18]. - **Capital Trends**: The long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed a stable trend in the past week [20]. - **Spread Structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure is in a contango structure [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract showed a slightly stronger oscillation this week, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of taking goods from the futures market periodically [26]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules are provided, showing different price changes [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profit margin of polysilicon enterprises is weakening. From the spot market, the spot profit of polysilicon is declining. In terms of production technology, the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.99% [30]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic Production**: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with the SMM - weekly production at 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% and a month - on - week decrease of 15.55%. The Baichuan - weekly production was 19,220 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78% and a month - on - week decrease of 27.14%. The Baichuan - weekly utilization rate was 31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0313 and a month - on - week decrease of 26.19% [38]. - **Overseas Production**: The overseas polysilicon monthly production and utilization rate data are provided [40]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory increased. The total weekly inventory was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.63% and a month - on - week increase of 10.22% [43]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 11.66% and a month - on - week decrease of 1.33% [46]. - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77% and a month - on - week increase of 7.97% [46]. 3.5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and utilization rate data of battery cells are provided, including different types of battery cells such as Topcon, BC, and HJT [53]. - **Inventory**: The weekly battery cell inventory was 9.17 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.80% and a month - on - week increase of 2.80% [56]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and utilization rate data of photovoltaic modules are provided, including N - type and P - type modules [59]. - **Inventory**: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 24.7 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 5.36% and a month - on - week decrease of 17.67% [62]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic module winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 137.33 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 46.84% and a month - on - week decrease of 95.83%. The average winning bid price was 0.78 yuan/watt, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a month - on - week increase of 6.85% [64]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new - installed capacity of Chinese photovoltaics and the data of green power generation (including wind and solar power) are provided [68][70].