南华期货甲醇产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 甲醇最近行情仍然跟随地缘与有色，基本面最大的变化在于上周三伊朗ZPC装置回来一套(40%负荷).05 合约在上周三夜盘增仓5万余手，单边绝对价格并没有什么变化，产业定价更多体现在5-9反套上(伊朗装置提 前归来对05的压力大于03)。随着美伊谈判的恢复与有色贵金属的下跌，甲醇主力合约下跌。从交易角度看， 单边参与难度较大，一方面定价权基本不在产业内，另一方面交易节奏也极快在关注地缘的基础上也需要关 注有色等盘面的变化。从前两次地缘缓和(2318-2183,2394-2243)的结果看，甲醇主力合约的价格重心在不断 上行。此外临近春节山东甲醛等下游需求降负但联弘与阳煤等mto维持开车状态，山东整体需求还可以，随着 内地上游排库不断进行(上周内地去库5.58w)，内地节前还算健康。2400的甲醇或许很贵，但2200的甲醇也还 行，毕竟1月发运再超预期基数也还是低，05合约面临着下游投产，多头预期不到证伪的阶段。综上临近 ...

等待系统性风险释放结束 本周主要观点： 事实上，最近 2 个月屡次出现有色和反内卷品种的涨跌跷跷 板效应了，每当有色技术调整的时候，相关发内卷品种总能出现 反弹。在有色品种的多头赚钱效应下降后，其他主题行情需要承 接来自有色和贵金属的大量资金，综合来看，在国家政策推动 下，低估值品种或将成为春节后重点关注品种之一。国家政策决 心深入整治内卷式竞争，调节供给侧的动态调整能力，我们认为 2026 年的主题行情，反内卷或不可避免。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、政策不及预期； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 09 日 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 等待系统性风险释放结束 期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 09 日 周行情观点综述 等待系统性风险释放结束 期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 09 日 近一周 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]

1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，尿素价格持续上涨。但伴随价格上行，下游逐步抵触，现货成交转弱， 预计尿素价格短期回调，建议多单离场，节前空仓过节。 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 2026 0 2 4 6 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 | | | 资金席位回测一览 * 远端交易预 ...

南华期货沥青产业周报 ——假期临近，交易热度逐渐下降 凌川惠（投资咨询资格证号：Z0019531 ） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 假期临近，现货端已早一步"提前过年"，需求端降至冰点。前期盘面的持续升水上涨，现货层面跟涨乏力，实 际成交热度和价格不尽人意。随着马瑞原油贴水报价的抬升，山东部分炼厂已开始转向其他重油资源，因此 所谓的原料紧张问题一直都不是制约地炼开工率的关键问题，但对远期的成本估值确有一定的抬升。因此， 未来一周沥青的行情更多的是跟随成本端原油进行波动。近期，原油波动的主线仍在地缘上，中东局势的不 稳定性放大了原油向上的脉冲。但小范围的地缘摩擦并不能扭转原油弱势的基本面和过剩格局。近期由于国 内柴油价格的持续萎靡，山东部分地炼成品油库存压力大，胀库对沥青的压制，或许在春节过后刚需启动发 现不及预期时价格将迎来一波流畅跌势。其他观点并无大的变化，随着假期临近交易热度或逐渐退温，节前 投资者需注意仓位风险控制。 沥青期货主力收盘价和山东地区沥青基差 source： 同花顺,南华研究,上海钢联 元/吨 沥青期货主力 ...

南华期货工业硅产业周报 ——供需双减，技术面有进一步下探态势 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月08日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周工业硅市场呈现震荡下跌格局。展望未来，工业硅期货价格走势的核心驱动逻辑将集中于以下因素：成 本端原材料价格变动情况、供给端停复产情况、需求端情况。 成本端，电力成本在工业硅生产成本结构中占比高达30%，而煤价波动对电力成本具备直接传导效应，进而 成为影响工业硅价格走势的关键因素。煤价的边际变动将直接作用于工业硅生产企业的成本线，近期煤价有 下跌迹象，后续需持续跟踪煤价波动节奏，以此研判工业硅成本端支撑力度的变化。 供给层面，金属硅产量继续下降，主要减量为新疆地区，后续新疆大厂减产计划预期逐步下行，2月工业硅产 量环比大幅下降约27.1%，同比亦转为负增长。需求层面，下游多晶硅企业有减产预期；当前多晶硅库存处 于高位，市场整体以去库存为主基调；同时需要注意的是，未来有可能炒作太空光伏的迹象，需关注钙钛矿 ...

∗ 近端交易逻辑 当下市场微观情绪已由多头踩踏转为节前的清冷僵持，主力合约在跌停后进入缩量震荡区间，暗示资金 避险意愿远超入场意愿。现货市场表现出明显的"结构性矛盾"：一方面高价抑制消费，另一方面流通货源 因物流停运而显紧凑，导致现货升水在盘面大跌后反而被迫抬升。月差结构上，近端 Back 结构因节前刚需仍 有支撑，但远端 Contango 趋势隐现。结尾直接点明，短期盘面处于"估值修正"后的阴跌阶段，既无逼空 逻辑也无大幅反转动能，价格将维持偏弱震荡。 南华期货锡产业周报 ——回吐涨幅，震荡为主 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锡价经历了从宏观亢奋到现实坍塌的剧烈回转，盘面在触及前期高点后因流动性预期逆转而高 位"跳水"，两日内回吐了 1 月下半月几乎全部涨幅。宏观上，"沃什交易"引发的鹰派转向直接扼杀了有 色金属的溢价空间，导致资金集体获利了结。与此同时，锡市基本面呈现出极度脆弱的"供需两淡"特征： 海外印尼 RKAB 政策担忧虽存但边际钝化，缅甸矿端虽未见显著放量但低位供应 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polysilicon futures price fluctuated widely this week. The core logic driving the price trend focuses on factors such as supply - side production suspension and resumption, downstream demand - side production scheduling, photovoltaic export rush, and anti - involution. The industry presents a "weak supply and weak demand" characteristic, with supply expansion slowing and downstream production under pressure. Due to the export tax - refund window in April, there may be an export rush for photovoltaic modules, but the overall market is mainly focused on inventory consumption [3]. - The polysilicon futures price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 83.6% [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The current polysilicon market is affected by supply - side production changes, downstream demand, export rush, and anti - involution. The industry shows a "weak supply and weak demand" situation, with supply - side production declining and downstream production also under pressure. The market is mainly consuming inventory, and attention should be paid to the anti - involution progress [3]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Polysilicon Futures Price Range**: The polysilicon futures price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 28.63% and a historical percentile of 83.6% in the past 3 years [9]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: Different hedging strategies are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, including using futures contracts and option combinations, with recommended hedging ratios [9]. 3.2 Market Information - On January 31 (Saturday), some leading polysilicon companies held a meeting to discuss polysilicon market - related matters. On February 5, a photovoltaic industry - related meeting was held to focus on capacity optimization and price order rectification [11]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Market Review and Technical Analysis**: The polysilicon weighted index closed at 49,536 yuan/ton this week, with a week - on - week increase of 5.06%. The trading volume was 12,451 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 47.72%, and the open interest was 65,885 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 10,229 lots. The PS2605 - PS2606 spread was in a contango structure, with a week - on - week decrease of 470 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,610 lots, a week - on - week increase of 190 lots. The futures price is expected to face resistance at 52,000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon fluctuated widely in the past week. The option open - interest PCR showed a weakening trend [17][18]. - **Capital Trends**: The long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed a stable trend in the past week [20]. - **Spread Structure**: The polysilicon futures term structure is in a contango structure [22]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main contract showed a slightly stronger oscillation this week, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of taking goods from the futures market periodically [26]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules are provided, showing different price changes [29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - The overall profit margin of polysilicon enterprises is weakening. From the spot market, the spot profit of polysilicon is declining. In terms of production technology, the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method. The gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 26.99% [30]. 3.5 Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - **Domestic Production**: The domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with the SMM - weekly production at 20,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50% and a month - on - week decrease of 15.55%. The Baichuan - weekly production was 19,220 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.78% and a month - on - week decrease of 27.14%. The Baichuan - weekly utilization rate was 31%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0313 and a month - on - week decrease of 26.19% [38]. - **Overseas Production**: The overseas polysilicon monthly production and utilization rate data are provided [40]. - **Inventory**: The domestic polysilicon weekly inventory increased. The total weekly inventory was 589,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.63% and a month - on - week increase of 10.22% [43]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - **Production**: The weekly silicon wafer production was 10.38 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 11.66% and a month - on - week decrease of 1.33% [46]. - **Inventory**: The weekly silicon wafer inventory was 28.32 GW, a week - on - week increase of 3.77% and a month - on - week increase of 7.97% [46]. 3.5.3 Battery Cell Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and utilization rate data of battery cells are provided, including different types of battery cells such as Topcon, BC, and HJT [53]. - **Inventory**: The weekly battery cell inventory was 9.17 GW, a week - on - week increase of 2.80% and a month - on - week increase of 2.80% [56]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Module Supply - **Production**: The monthly production and utilization rate data of photovoltaic modules are provided, including N - type and P - type modules [59]. - **Inventory**: The weekly photovoltaic module inventory was 24.7 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 5.36% and a month - on - week decrease of 17.67% [62]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic module winning bids show that the winning bid capacity was 137.33 MW, a week - on - week decrease of 46.84% and a month - on - week decrease of 95.83%. The average winning bid price was 0.78 yuan/watt, a week - on - week increase of 1.30% and a month - on - week increase of 6.85% [64]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new - installed capacity of Chinese photovoltaics and the data of green power generation (including wind and solar power) are provided [68][70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper trading has entered a more complex and politicized new stage. The copper price dropped to the daily limit at the beginning of the week due to the drying up of liquidity and the weakening of speculative sentiment, and then rebounded under the boost of the "state reserve purchase" policy. The volatility of copper price reached a phased high. The release of indicators such as the US non - farm payrolls next week may change the holiday capital position - holding attitude [2]. - In the short - term, the trading logic focuses on macro - policy expectations, capital liquidity, and inventory structure changes. The price fluctuation reflects more of the emotional side rather than the substantial deterioration of the fundamentals. In the long - term, the core contradiction will shift to whether the strong physical supply - demand fundamentals can offset the negative impact of macro - policy uncertainties [7][8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded due to the "state reserve purchase" policy. The release of US non - farm payrolls and other indicators next week may affect the capital position - holding attitude during the holiday [2]. - Fundamentally, the sharp drop in copper price led to concentrated delivery of downstream orders. The upstream processing enterprises took the opportunity to set prices, the enterprise operating rate rebounded, raw material inventory increased, and finished - product inventory decreased. China is in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, while the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper has slowed down [2]. - According to the model, the current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend with a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 99.48%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 20.27%, higher than the previous week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.74%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 15%, lower than the previous week and the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: The current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend at a low - cycle position [9]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [98549, 104071] with a price center of 101310; the price range of London copper is [12697, 13541] with a price center of 13119 [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52%, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16%, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [9]. - **Basis (Premium/Discount), Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The basis strategy is bearish, the monthly spread strategy is neutral, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with low raw material inventory and the need to replenish inventory before the festival, considering the significant increase in copper price volatility, it is recommended to use appropriate hedging tools to hedge the cost increase caused by price increases. Specific operations include batch - building positions near the support level of futures and buying up - and - out cumulative options in the over - the - counter market [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: China's non - ferrous metal industry association proposed three major countermeasures, including enhancing domestic raw material supply capacity, diversifying copper concentrate imports and overseas investments, and promoting copper smelting capacity management. Anglo American Resources adjusted its medium - and long - term copper production guidance downward. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to accumulate significantly [18][19]. - **Negative Information**: The registered copper warrants in LME warehouses increased to the highest level since late February last year. Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on products imported into the US from countries that purchase, import, or obtain goods or services from Iran [19][20]. - **Exchange Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued risk warnings and adjusted trading margin ratios and daily price limits for copper futures contracts [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - Next week, major macro - economic indicators will be released, including US core retail sales, China's CPI and PPI, US unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [22] Chapter 3: Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Capital 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - At the beginning of the week, affected by market sentiment, copper prices dropped and then fluctuated within a range. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper weighted index decreased, and the market speculation degree returned to below the median of 50. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated around 101659, and the term structure of Shanghai copper futures premium continued to provide favorable conditions for delivery arbitrage [25]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation - LME copper and Comex copper maintained high volatility this week, with the amplitude narrowing compared with the previous week. The LME copper price was stronger than the Comex copper price, resulting in an increase in the inversion of the LC spread and a slowdown in the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper. The net long positions of Comex copper speculators decreased [26]. Chapter 4: Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - This week, the copper spot price dropped significantly, the discount narrowed and even turned into a premium. The smelting income of refined copper spot decreased week - on - week, and the procurement willingness of smelting enterprises was weak while the shipping willingness was strong. The Yangshan copper premium recovered, and the copper import window opened. The operating rates of some processing industries rebounded, but it is expected to decline next week due to the approaching Spring Festival [30]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - This week, the copper import profit increased week - on - week, the recycled copper import profit decreased, the Shanghai - London ratio continued to weaken, and the copper import window opened. The export volume of copper and copper concentrates from Chile to China decreased, and it is expected that the arrival volume of copper concentrates in China in January will decrease month - on - month [33]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - This week, affected by the increase in copper import profit and the opening of the import window, the global visible copper inventory continued to rise. The inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper and Shanghai copper slowed down. The total LME copper inventory increased, with the registered warrants increasing and the cancelled warrants decreasing. The copper concentrate inventory is lower than the same period in previous years [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - There are no maintenance plans for sample smelting enterprises in February, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the output in February is likely to decrease. The output in January 2026 is expected to be about 1.12 million tons, lower than that in 2025 but higher than that in December 2024 [41]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In January 2026, the operating rates of most copper processing enterprises rebounded compared with the previous expectations. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, copper tube, and copper cable enterprises increased, while the operating rate of brass rod enterprises decreased slightly [43][46]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded, with the volatility reaching a phased high. Near the Spring Festival, the activity of speculative trading will decline. For medium - term investors, attention can be paid to the price fluctuations in the range of 98000 - 100000. Short - term range operations are recommended before the festival, and chasing up or selling down should be done with caution [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, lead prices entered a downward channel under the dual pressure of tightened macro - liquidity and seasonal industrial shutdown. The "Wash trade" led to a strong US dollar index, capping the valuation of non - ferrous metals including lead. Meanwhile, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The marginal contraction of supply is offset by a more severe consumption slump. The lead market is in a weak reality logic of "supply exceeding demand, rising inventories and falling prices", and the fundamental analysis remains weak [3]. - In the short - term, the market is experiencing a pre - holiday capital risk - aversion wave, with extremely low trading sentiment. The spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand, so there is a risk of downward correction due to large fluctuations in the external market during the holiday [7]. - Looking at the whole year of 2026, lead prices are still trapped in a wide - range oscillation pattern due to over - capacity and the substitution of recycled lead. Although there is cost support at the mine end, the price ceiling will be suppressed in the long - term due to the lack of new growth points in consumption and strict environmental capacity limits [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level: The "Wash trade" caused the US dollar index to be strong, forming a valuation ceiling for lead [3]. - Industry - level: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The开工 rate of recycled lead enterprises has declined seasonally, and the consumption of downstream battery enterprises has come to a standstill. Inventories are rising [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see. The current price is in a seasonal weak range but close to the cost line, so the risk of short - selling increases. It is recommended to make arrangements after the post - holiday inventory data is clear [10]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of inter - period positive arbitrage. Due to the high inventory - accumulation pressure in February, the far - month contracts may be relatively stronger due to consumption recovery expectations. Observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity after the spread between the 03 - 05 contracts narrows [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton [11]. - Raw material management: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 16,000 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and routine maintenance of some enterprises, the production of primary lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The LME lead inventory is at a relatively medium - level historically, limiting the absolute downward space [12]. - **Negative drivers**: Hawkish signals in the "Wash trade", a sharp decline in the operating rate of battery enterprises, and expected increase in social inventories approaching 100,000 tons [13]. - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the weekly average price is 16,805 yuan/ton; the monthly average price is 17,078.75 yuan/ton. The price of domestic lead concentrates is 16,150 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, and the price of imported lead concentrates is 16,483.7 yuan/ton, down 0.3% [15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Domestic: On February 13th, pay attention to the initial value of the accumulation of social inventories announced by SMM [17]. - International: On February 10th, pay attention to the marginal adjustment of the "balance - sheet reduction" expectation by US inflation - related data [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16,510 yuan/ton this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The basis and monthly spread structure show that the spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand [18][20]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, LME lead was at $1,948.5/ton. LME lead maintains a C - structure, and the spot is weaker than the futures [23][38]. - **Internal - external price difference tracking**: Relevant charts show the seasonal changes in lead spot import profit and loss and the relationship between the closing prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead [41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The comparison of primary lead processing fees shows the changes in domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees [43]. - The relationship between SMM lead concentrate monthly production and domestic lead concentrate processing fees is also presented [43]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The relationship between lead concentrate import profit and loss and import volume is shown, as well as the monthly import volume and its year - on - year change [45][46]. - Seasonal charts of refined lead import, lead concentrate import, lead battery import and export, and lead ingot net export are provided [47][49][50]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Seasonal charts of domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly actual consumption are presented [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The monthly production of lead concentrates, global lead mine production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their year - on - year changes and seasonality, are shown [56][58]. - The capacity utilization rates of primary lead and recycled lead are presented [63]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Seasonal charts of lead battery operating rates (monthly, weekly, by type, and by region) are provided [65][66]. - Seasonal charts of lead battery import and export volumes, and the finished - product inventory days of lead battery enterprises and dealers are presented [68].