Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Paper pulp and offset paper futures prices are expected to maintain a slightly oscillating trend in the short term, with the price center slightly shifting downward [3]. - For paper pulp, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term and continue to focus on the 12 - 01 reverse spread, while the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. - For offset paper, the futures strategy is to short at high levels in the short term, and the options strategy is to wait and see [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for paper pulp is 4750 - 5600, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 5.62%. For offset printing paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 9.72% and a historical percentile of 50.00% [2]. - **Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When the inventory of finished products (softwood pulp/offset paper) is high and there are concerns about price drops, recommend shorting paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Also, sell call options to collect premiums and lock in the spot selling price if the price rises unexpectedly [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the inventory of paper - making enterprises is low and they want to purchase according to orders, recommend buying paper pulp/offset paper futures to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25%. Sell put options to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - **Paper Pulp**: The paper pulp futures price first dropped significantly and then rebounded. The spot price fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, the US government shutdown had a negative macro - impact, and port inventory increased by 10.2 tons. However, the shutdown of some pulp mills provided some support [3]. - **Offset Paper**: The offset paper futures price declined due to the price reaching a high and then correcting, and the lack of fundamental support for the previous price increase, along with insufficient market confidence [3]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some pulp mills have shut down, and tariffs on the US remain unchanged [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Macro - sentiment has weakened, port inventory is high and difficult to reduce, and paper pulp spot prices have generally fallen [11]. Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price and Spread**: On November 14, 2025, the closing prices and price changes of paper pulp (SP) and offset printing paper (OP) futures and their spreads are provided, showing daily and weekly fluctuations [14]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of paper pulp and double - offset paper on November 13 and 14, 2025, respectively, are presented, with some prices remaining unchanged and showing certain regional differences [15]. Basis Data - **Paper Pulp Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of paper pulp on November 12, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are shown for different varieties and contracts [7]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily changes in the basis of offset paper on November 14, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, are provided for different contracts [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Futures** - The RMB strengthened significantly against the US dollar due to multiple internal and external factors, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to "oscillate and build a bottom with a slowly declining bottom" [2] - Short - term stock indices may be under pressure, but with policy support, they are expected to oscillate [3][5] - Treasury bond mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term positions can be bought on dips [6] - **Commodities** - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise, and short - term corrections are opportunities to add long positions [8][10] - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising, and the Shanghai copper is likely to follow. The price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is in high - level oscillation; alumina is weakly running; cast aluminum alloy is in high - level oscillation [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation with strong support below [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, waiting for clear signals, and the downside space is greater than the upside space [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended [17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is prone to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a view of oscillating strongly, but callback risks should be watched out for [18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to oscillate widely due to weak fundamentals [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation, and attention can be paid to lower entry opportunities [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range, with rebar in the 2900 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coil in the 3100 - 3400 range [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation with no significant driving force [24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term futures and spot prices may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and cost support [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: It will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term, with room for further decline [28][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: They are expected to oscillate strongly following the cost side in the short term, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom with limited downward space [39][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change, and the upward driving force is insufficient [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, but pay attention to the trading rhythm [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong, but the high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp is expected to oscillate in the short term, and offset paper is expected to stabilize weakly [57][58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: In China, the consumer price index has rebounded marginally, and boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. In the US, the government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to the release of economic data and the Fed's decision - making [1] - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB strengthened against the US dollar due to multiple factors. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to oscillate and build a bottom [2] - **Stock Index**: The short - term stock index may be under pressure due to weak credit and reduced expectations of Fed rate cuts, but it is expected to oscillate with policy support [3][5] - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term bond market is in narrow - range oscillation. In the context of weak economic fundamentals, long positions can be held [5][6] Commodities - **Precious Metals** - **Gold and Silver**: The price pulled back after rising. The 12 - month rate - cut expectation is uncertain. In the medium - to - long term, the price will continue to rise [8][9][10] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The external copper price pulled back after rising. The Shanghai copper is likely to follow, and the price will oscillate between expectations and reality in the short term [10][11][12] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is affected by funds and industry fundamentals; alumina is in an oversupply situation; cast aluminum alloy follows aluminum [13][14] - **Zinc**: It is in high - level oscillation, with the smelting end having a willingness to cut production in November, and the bottom support is strong [14] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They continue to oscillate, with cost support weakening and limited upward momentum [15][16] - **Tin**: It is running strongly, and short - term chasing is not recommended due to supply shortages [16][17] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is in a situation of increased production and inventory reduction, with good demand, and is expected to oscillate strongly [17][18] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They have weak demand, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [19][20] - **Lead**: It is in strong - level oscillation. After the supply problem is gradually solved, it will slowly return to balance [21] - **Black Metals** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a macro vacuum period, and the core contradiction returns to the fundamentals. Rebar's supply - demand balance improves marginally, while hot - rolled coil has high inventory [22][23] - **Iron Ore**: The short - term price is in oscillatory operation, and the port inventory is in a cumulative trend [23][24] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term price may face adjustment pressure, but the medium - to - long - term coal coke is suitable for long - allocation [24][25][26] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are in a situation of high inventory and weak demand, and are expected to oscillate [26] - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory has increased more than expected, and it will oscillate in the 60 - 65 range in the short - to - medium term [28][29][30] - **LPG**: It is in strong - level oscillation, with a neutral - to - good fundamental situation but high valuation [30][31] - **PTA - PX**: The short - term supply - demand is strong, but the PTA over - supply expectation is difficult to change [32][35] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The short - term EG rebounds at a low level, but the long - term valuation is under pressure [36][38] - **PP**: It will oscillate at the bottom, with supply pressure and improved demand during the "Double Eleven" [39][40][41] - **PE**: It will rebound at the bottom, but the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern is difficult to change [42][44] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term disk follows pure benzene to strengthen, but the benzene - ethylene destocking pressure is large [44][45] - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur cracking has an upward driving force [45][48] - **Asphalt**: It is weakly viewed in the short term, with a loose supply - demand pattern and cost - side influence [49][50] - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: They are expected to slowly rise in oscillation, with the expected strength pattern of RU>NR>BR [51][52] - **Urea**: The short - term market is stable and strong due to export quota increase, but high - supply pressure exists [52][53] - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Soda Ash**: The price is restricted by high inventory, but there is cost support below [53][54] - **Glass**: The 01 contract may decline towards the end, but there is cost support in the long term [55] - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term spot is weak, and the long - term production pressure continues [56] - **Pulp and Offset Paper** - **Pulp**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with multiple long and short factors intertwined [57] - **Offset Paper**: The futures price is expected to weaken and stabilize [58] - **Log**: The grid strategy and option double - selling can continue to be configured [58]

南华贵金属日报： 黄金&白银：降息预期摇摆不定 贵金属冲高回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月14日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格冲高后回落调整。美政府停摆暂时缓解后，贵金属进入阶段性获利了结阶段，同时美联储官 员释放对12月FOMC鹰派言论，加剧贵金属与金融市场调整。消息面，美国众议院通过临时拨款法案，联邦 政府关门结束，特朗普首席经济顾问哈塞特表示，10月将获得一半的就业报告，没有失业率数据，估计政府 关门造成6万人失业。美联储官员密集发声，整体传递出对降息路径的谨慎甚至偏鹰派立场，12月降息预期已 下降至5成：今年票委穆萨莱姆强调，面对不确定性，政策制定需保持谨慎，避免激进调整；明年票委哈玛克 主张，当前利率水平已具限制性，建议"按兵不动"，观察经济反应；明年票委卡什卡利明确表态，不支持 上月末的降息决定，认为12月是否行动应完全取决于即将公布的数据；后年票委戴利指出，现在就判断12月 是否降息"为时过早"，需等待更多证据验证经济走势。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报4174.5美元/盎 司，-0.93%；美白银2512合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the pressure on the supply side will gradually ease marginally. The industry is still in a stage of wide - range weak oscillation, and there is no significant driving force at present [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term trading main line of the polysilicon market revolves around whether the November storage platform will be established, and then will gradually shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The overall risk level is relatively high [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, the low - electricity - price environment in Southwest China during the wet season is about to end, and the furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the risk of inventory accumulation will be alleviated. On the demand side, the demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy field is stable, and the demand from polysilicon enterprises is expected to decrease [4]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The "anti - involution" policy releases a positive signal, and the short - term downward space of the cost side is limited, with a relatively low profit valuation [4][5]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The output of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises has declined, weakening the demand side [5]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 9145 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.54% and a weekly increase of 0.88%. The trading volume and open interest have increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly increases. The prices of downstream products such as trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index have also shown little change [16]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 45387 lots, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous day. The warehouse receipt inventories in various delivery warehouses have also changed to varying degrees [27]. Polysilicon - **Core Logic**: The core factors affecting the polysilicon futures price are whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, the pressure of concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation in November, whether the winning bid price of demand - side components can rise stably, and whether the photovoltaic competitive - bidding on - grid electricity price can increase. The current market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [7]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: The industry may introduce a production capacity integration and clearance plan, which is expected to improve the industrial pattern if implemented [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: If the production capacity integration and clearance plan fails to be implemented, inventory is likely to continue to accumulate [8]. - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 54195 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1.37% and a weekly increase of 1.50%. The trading volume of the main contract has decreased, while the open interest has increased [28]. - **Spot Data**: The prices of different types of polysilicon and related products in the photovoltaic industry chain have shown little daily change, with some slight weekly decreases [41][43]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data**: The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 2235 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 49.00% and a weekly increase of 60.22%. The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9130 lots, a decrease of 720 lots from the previous day [53]. Silicon Industry Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Selling Industrial Silicon**: To prevent price decline and profit reduction, enterprises can sell corresponding futures contracts according to the production plan (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 20%) [2]. - **Purchasing Industrial Silicon**: When the finished product price has no correlation, to prevent cost increase, enterprises can buy corresponding futures contracts (hedging ratio: 20%) or sell put options (hedging ratio: 10%); when the finished product price is correlated, to prevent inventory impairment, enterprises can sell the main futures contract according to the procurement progress (hedging ratio: 40%) or buy put options and sell call options (hedging ratio: 40%) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: To prevent inventory depreciation, enterprises can sell the main futures contract (hedging ratio: 40%) or sell call options (hedging ratio: 10%) [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a clear bullish trend based on multi - dimensional analysis of supply and demand factors. However, considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant about the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [4]. - On the supply side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrate arrivals this month can ease the tight situation in the lithium ore market. The release of salt lake production capacity will continue to supplement the lithium salt supply, and the resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - On the demand side, the current demand is strong. The prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, reflecting the market's demand for lithium carbonate. The high - production schedule in November will maintain strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. From the perspective of national industrial policies, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which may boost the spot procurement demand for lithium salts and support prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volume Indicators**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 87,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,260 yuan (1.46%) and a weekly increase of 7,340 yuan (9.12%). The trading volume is 1,106,011 lots, a daily decrease of 39,318 lots (-3.43%) but a weekly increase of 523,978 lots (90.03%). The open interest is 536,514 lots, a daily increase of 7,548 lots (1.43%) and a weekly increase of 64,531 lots (13.67%) [7]. - **Price Interval Forecast**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.6% and a historical percentile of 59.6% over three years [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate Term Structure and Spread**: The report also presents the term structure of lithium carbonate, as well as the seasonal spreads of LC01 - 03, LC01 - 05, and LC03 - 05 [11][12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores are rising. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan (1.13%) and a weekly increase of 160 yuan (7.67%) [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 82,000 yuan/ton and 84,350 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 900 yuan (1.11%) and 1,050 yuan (1.26%) [26]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [30]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The report shows the basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands [34][36]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 27,508 lots, a decrease of 779 lots from the previous day. The warehouse receipt quantities of different warehouses and sub - warehouses are also provided [39]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [41][43]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises planning to produce battery materials in the future and worried about rising lithium carbonate prices, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling put options (LC2601 - P - 73000, 20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises planning to produce lithium carbonate and worried about price drops, strategies include selling futures contracts and using option combination strategies, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% - 20% [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories and worried about price drops, strategies include selling futures contracts and relevant options, with recommended hedging ratios of 10% - 20% [2].

南华宏观专题 —— 美国2026年中期选举的"驴象之争"（上篇） 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月13日 关键词：美国政治、选举、2026年中期选举 风险提示：2026年美国中期选举爆发黑天鹅事件 正文 一、美国中期选举机制详解 1.1 中期选举的定义与核心特征 1. 中期选举的基本概念 美国中期选举是美国政治体系中一项至关重要的周期性选举活动，其核心定义是在总统四年任期中间进 行的全国性选举。这一选举制度的设计，旨在通过定期的民意反馈，对联邦政府及地方政府的权力进行制衡 与调整，确保政府的政策方向与选民的意愿保持一致。进一步来看，美国中期选举的法律依据源于1787年 《宪法》第一条对国会选举周期的规定。根据定义，中期选举每四年举行一次，与总统大选相隔两年，因此 得名"中期"。其主要内容是改选美国国会的部分席位，具体包括众议院的全部席位和参议院约三分之一的 . .. 席位。此外，许多州和地方行政区也会在此期间同步举行州长、州议员及其他地方官员的选举。中期选举的 实质是民主党和共和党两大主要政 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The prices of iron ore and coking coal have formed a seesaw effect again. The sharp decline in coking coal prices provides room for the rebound of iron ore prices. In the short term, the iron ore price may be repaired, and the decline rate may slow down. However, the overall supply is still excessive, and the inventory at ports continues to accumulate. In general, the short - term price tends to fluctuate with no significant driving force [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The price forecast range for the iron ore 12 - contract in November is 770 - 826, with the current at - the - money option IV at 18.54% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies are: directly shorting iron ore futures (I2512) to lock in profits with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advised entry range of 820 - 830; selling call options (I2512 - C - 830) to collect premiums with a hedging ratio of 30% and selling at high prices [2] Procurement Management - For those who need to purchase iron ore in the future and are worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are: directly going long on iron ore futures (I2512) to lock in costs with a hedging ratio of 30% and an advised entry range of 780 - 790; selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780), holding long futures positions if the price falls below the strike price, with a hedging ratio of 40% and selling at high prices [2] Core Contradictions - The prices of iron ore and coking coal form a seesaw effect. The sharp decline in coking coal prices provides room for iron ore price rebound. The short - term price may be repaired due to reduced iron ore shipments, improved steel mill profits, weakened coking coal suppression, and a previously high basis. However, the downstream steel market has weak supply and demand, and the high - inventory problem persists. The overall supply is excessive, and the port inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. There is a short - term structural shortage of iron ore, and the deliverable inventory is low, resulting in a continuously rising basis despite inventory accumulation [3] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The basis is rising, and in the medium - to - long - term, both overseas monetary and fiscal policies are loose [4] Bearish Factors - The macro - economy is weakening marginally, with the PMI in China and the US declining month - on - month; iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level; hot - rolled coil inventory is continuously accumulating above the seasonal level, with production still at a high level and overall demand lacking momentum; steel mills are reducing production but not completely, and the demand for plates is still high; the strength of coking coal squeezes the space for iron ore [4][5][7] Price Data Futures Closing Prices and Basis - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 772.5, 745.5, and 723 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.5, - 2, and - 1.5, and weekly changes of - 5, - 10.5, and - 12 respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 bases were 6, 32.5, and 55.5 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 4, and - 4, and weekly changes of - 1.5, 3.5, and 5.5 respectively [6] Spot Prices - On November 13, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder and Rizhao Carajás fines were 780 and 880 respectively, with daily changes of - 4 and - 4, and weekly changes of - 5 and - 13 respectively [6] Platts Index - On November 12, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 92.45, 103.6, and 115.6 respectively, with daily changes of 1, 1.25, and 1.1, and weekly changes of - 1, - 1.3, and - 1.8 respectively [8] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22, a weekly decrease of 2.14 and a monthly decrease of 7.32; the 45 - port deshipping volume was 320.93, a weekly increase of 0.77 and a monthly decrease of 6.07; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 867, a weekly decrease of 49 and a monthly increase of 116; the global shipping volume was 3069, a weekly decrease of 144.8 and a monthly decrease of 138.5; the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2443.3, a weekly decrease of 240.2 and a monthly decrease of 223.2; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2741.2, a weekly decrease of 477.2 and a monthly decrease of 304.6; the 45 - port inventory was 14898.83, a weekly increase of 356.35 and a monthly increase of 874.33; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 9009.94, a weekly increase of 160.08 and a monthly decrease of 36.25; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.21, a weekly increase of 0.86 and a monthly increase of 0.97 [16]

徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周四期债全线收跌，中长期品种低开低走，短期品种震荡。资金面回归宽松，DR001回落至1.32%。公开市 场逆回购1900亿，净投放972亿。 国债期货日报 2025/11/13 TF主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TF基差：主连 TF IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 -1 0 1 2 3 TS主力合约基差与IRR source： -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 wind,南华研究 元 TS基差：主连 TS IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -1 0 1 2 3 长债与超长债利率走势 source： wind,南华研究 % 10Y国债到期收益率 30Y国债到期收益率 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 国债利差 source： wind,南华研究 bp 国债 ...

市场回顾 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.21%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升969.28亿元。期 指均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 股指期货日报 2025年11月13日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 放量上涨但持续性有待观察，关注明日国内经济数据公布情况 1. 证监会副主席李明：坚决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌。 2. 特朗普签署临时拨款法案，美政府结束"停摆"。 核心观点 临时拨款法案通过，美国政府结束为期43天的停摆，提振市场情绪，今日股指放量走强。不过我们认为单纯 情绪面驱动难有较强持续性，同时从期指基差来看，今日IF、IH、IC合约成交量加权平均基差均回落，IM成 交量加权平均基差虽持续回升，但当季、下季合约基差贴水加深，持仓量下跌，表明整体多头离场意愿增 强，可见市场情绪并没有完全好转。关注明天将公布的国内经济数据，若整体向好，进一步强化经济修复逻 辑，提振盈利预期，将推动股指从"震荡筑底"向"估值修复"过渡；若无明显亮点，维持弱复苏态势，预 计股指将延续震荡格局。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, precious metals are strengthening. London gold's resistance has moved up to 4200, and if broken, it may retest the previous high of 4380. Its support is at 4120. Silver has skyrocketed due to the slow transfer of the COMEX 2512 main contract, with a resistance level moved up to 54.5, support at 51, and strong support at 49.5 - 50 [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Quotes Review** - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose strongly due to the expected passage of the US temporary spending bill and the Fed's internal personnel adjustment favoring loose - money expectations. However, the possible absence of the US October CPI and non - farm payroll reports restricts the Fed's possibility of cutting interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4201.4 per ounce, up 2.07%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.23 per ounce, up 4.9%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 945.76 yuan per gram, up 0.16%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12073 yuan per kilogram, up 2.02% [2]. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings** - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly rebounded. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 40.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 59.4%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.5%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 25%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.4%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.4%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 36.4%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.28 tons to 1046.64 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 8.8 tons to 583.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3]. **This Week's Focus** - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. Regarding events, on Friday at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4]. **Price and Inventory Data Tables** - **Precious Metal Price Table**: It shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE and fund positions in gold and silver [16][18]. - **Stock - Bond - Commodity Summary Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [21].