南华期货油脂产业周报 ——短期宏观情绪转弱，压制油脂上方空间 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月3日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： * 近端交易预期 . 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。虽然马来进入减产季，但库存当前仍处于七年高位，关注出 口是否加快去库进度；印尼B50计划将不会在2026年执行，棕榈油生物燃料需求端扩张有限，产地整体来看 报价具有支撑但趋势性驱动不足，等待印度斋月备货需求提振棕榈油价格。 2、美国生物柴油政策最新消息称将维持现有提案，即对2026年的掺混要求达到56.1亿加仑，同时取消进 口原料惩罚限制，利好全球油脂市场，及加大拿菜籽，最终结果在3月有望公布，关注后续消息。 3、中加和谈目前较乐观，加菜籽进口有望维持15%进口税，叠加全球菜籽丰产，菜油支撑减弱，关注后 续采购信息。但随着美国总统特朗普发言威胁加拿大，中加贸易仍 ...

南华期货鸡蛋产业周报 ——期现分歧加大 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月02日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前鸡蛋市场的矛盾体现为由春节备货驱动的"强现实"与市场对节后产能及需求的"弱预期"之间的激烈博弈。 现货市场呈现典型的"强现实"特征。受终端春节前集中备货的强劲需求拉动，市场走货速度明显加快，生产与 流通环节库存均维持在低位。在低库存与高需求的共同支撑下，产地鸡蛋价格持续走强，养殖环节盈利情况 得到显著改善。但是，当下的强现实造成的是市场对鸡蛋未来预期的担忧。产能去化进度虽在前期有所进 展，但随着盈利情况的改善，强烈刺激了养殖户的惜淘情绪 ，去化意愿逐步减弱甚至部分养殖户鸡苗补栏意 愿加强。总结来说就是短期不可持续的备货影响了长期供需平衡的修复。 中国鸡蛋主销区周度销量季节性 source： 南华研究 吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 05/01 09/01 2500 5000 7500 10,000 淘汰鸡出栏季节性 source： 南华研究 万只 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views of the Report - If Kevin Warsh is successfully appointed as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will combine a hawkish stance with political compromise, implementing a unique policy of simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. His core goal is to compress the private sector's balance sheet and repair the government's balance sheet, with oil prices serving as a key supplementary tool for this policy. This series of policy adjustments will interact with the narrative of the loss of US dollar credit, becoming a crucial scenario to test this narrative [2]. - The market is expected to enter a cautious exploration period in February. The key lies in Warsh's explanation of policy contradictions during the Senate hearing. His combination policy of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction may suppress risk assets such as equities and be beneficial for the bond market to carry out short - term borrowing and long - term investment strategies. However, the high - level operation of long - term yields also brings uncertainties to the real economy [2]. - The trend of Warsh's policies will become the core variable in the global financial market, and whether his nomination can be confirmed by the Senate is currently the primary uncertainty factor. Subsequently, three key points need to be focused on: the Senate voting result, the possible risk of the Fed's independence caused by Powell's departure, and the switch of the global market trading narrative [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chairman. Senate Democrats and some Republicans oppose the nomination. Eurozone Q4 2025 GDP grew 1.3% year - on - year. Japan's Tokyo January core CPI slowed to 2%. South Korea is concerned about the won's depreciation. The US continued to list Japan as a "monitoring object" [1]. - **Core Logic**: If Warsh takes office, the Fed's monetary policy framework may change from the "post - Keynesian data - dependent model" to the "supply - side monetarism" paradigm. The US dollar index may strengthen if US economic data is positive. His policy may suppress risk assets and benefit the bond market [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Warsh's nomination triggered high market volatility. The on - shore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. The change in the Fed's policy framework may reshape market expectations, and the US dollar index may rise [2][3]. - **Stock Index**: The nomination of Warsh led to market fluctuations. Overseas market reactions may affect A - shares in the short term, causing a phased adjustment. The market style may shift from "small - and - medium - cap stocks outperforming" to "large - cap stocks outperforming" [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's rise was partly due to the stock market's adjustment and policy rumors. Warsh's nomination may lead to a deeper market adjustment. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may break through 1.80%, and mid - line long positions can consider partial profit - taking [6][7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Near - month contracts are suppressed by weak spot prices, while long - term contracts are supported by geopolitical uncertainties. The market is expected to continue this differentiation [8][9][10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price first rose and then fell. Global copper inventories continued to rise, but the growth rate slowed. China's power grid investment may increase copper demand. Before the holiday, short - term range trading is recommended [12][13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price was affected by funds and emotions, first rising and then falling. Fundamentally, there is pressure on aluminum prices due to increased production and weakening demand. In the long term, the aluminum price is expected to rise. For alumina, the long - term trend is weak, and for cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price recovered its previous gains. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel fell. They are mainly affected by the market and macro - level emotions. The supply and demand pattern may be affected in the long - term, but the short - term impact is limited [18][19]. - **Tin**: The tin price fell, but there is support at the bottom. The market is in a state of divergence, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lead**: The lead price was weak, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Selling options to collect stable premiums is recommended [20]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. The supply of imported soybeans may have a gap in Q1, and the prices of domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal are not optimistic [22][23][24]. - **Oils**: The overall trend of oils is still prone to rise and difficult to fall. Palm oil is facing a pressure test, and the prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by supply and demand factors such as production and policies [24][25][26]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil supply is gradually recovering, but the demand is weak. The low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to decline in the long - term, and the pressure on the low - sulfur fuel oil to contract is increasing [28][29]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price is rising weakly. The recent rise is driven by multiple factors, but the supply pressure will increase in the future. The 03 contract may provide a trading opportunity [30]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: Warsh's nomination led to a sharp decline in platinum and palladium prices. In the short - term, the "tightening trade" expectation does not change the long - term "loose trade" trend. Attention should be paid to position control [31][33][34]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver fluctuated sharply. In the short - term, they may enter a phased adjustment period, but in the long - term, they are expected to rise due to factors such as the Fed's policy and the global de - dollarization trend [34][38][39]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The prices of pulp and offset paper futures fell. The decline is due to factors such as the overall bearish sentiment in the commodity market, increased port inventories, and reduced downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41][42]. - **LPG**: The LPG price is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is weak. Attention should be paid to the risk of price increases [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX supply is expected to remain high, and the PTA supply is stable. The high processing fee of PTA is expected to be difficult to maintain. It is recommended to buy PX on dips and short the PTA processing fee on highs [43][44]. - **MEG - Bottle Grade Resin**: The demand for ethylene glycol is seasonally weak, and the supply is expected to increase. The price is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [46][47]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is volatile, mainly affected by geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical commodity market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PP**: The PP price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing. Attention should be paid to macro - trends and cost changes [49]. - **PE**: The PE price is affected by macro - emotions and cost factors. The supply is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. Attention should be paid to the risk of price declines [50]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply of pure benzene is increasing, and the demand is decreasing. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decline. It is recommended to wait and see and buy styrene on dips [50][52]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to close long positions [52]. - **Glass - Soda Ash**: The soda ash supply is expected to be in excess, and the glass market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [54][56]. - **Propylene**: The propylene price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. The supply and demand are both decreasing, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran situation [57]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a range - bound state. The supply may increase, and the demand is seasonally weak. The iron ore price is affected by factors such as steel mill restocking and supply and demand [58][59]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price follows the overall market trend. The supply is in a seasonal low, and the demand may increase with the rise of iron - water production [60]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market is in a stage of excess supply, and the coke price increase may face difficulties. The short - term price volatility may increase, and the long - term trend depends on domestic mine复产 and downstream demand recovery [62]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are in a range - bound state, with cost support at the bottom and supply - demand pressure at the top [62]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig prices in the north rebounded, and those in the south stabilized. The market is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The specific price trend depends on the actual出栏 volume and terminal consumption [64][65]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is under pressure due to the strengthening of the US dollar. The domestic cotton price is supported by supply - demand expectations but restricted by the high domestic - foreign price difference. It is recommended to buy on dips [65][66]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price fell, and the domestic sugar price is affected by international prices. The short - term price increase is mainly due to capital factors, and the upward space is limited [66][67][68]. - **Eggs**: The spot egg price is stable at a high level, and the large basis indicates risks after the Spring Festival. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [68]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday apple stocking accelerated, the spot price was loose, and the futures price was relatively stable. Attention should be paid to the logic of the shortage of delivery goods [69][70]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube supply is abundant, and the demand is the focus. The short - term price may fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term price is under pressure [70][71]. - **Logs**: The log inventory is at a low level, and the spot price is rising. The overall valuation is increasing. It is recommended to sell put options [72][73].

期货策略周报 I 2026 年 02 月 02 日 下一个风口在哪里？ 本周主要观点： 综合各个板块的节奏，随着有色和贵金属板块的大幅、集中 式的下跌调整，以充分释放风险，其他板块的行情可能也随之而 来，资金需要寻找新的主题行情，反内卷主题的相关品种较多， 估值也较低，具有一定安全边际，体量也足够容纳来自有色和贵 金属溢出的资金量。可以重点关注。国家政策决心深入整治内卷 式竞争，调节供给侧的动态调整能力，我们认为 2026 年的主题行 情，反内卷或不可避免。 风险点：宏观政策变化、产业政策变化、政策不及预期； 重要声明：本报告内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 南华研究院 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290 号 顾双飞 投资咨询证号：Z0013611 王建锋 投资咨询证号：Z0010946 胡乐克 投资咨询证号：Z0013991 陈敏涛 期货从业证号：Z0022731 市场具有太多的不确定性，依靠频繁地预测，难以走出困局。我们要摒弃对行 情的预测，而依赖于策略。追风1号和追风2号咨询产品，每日推送报告，推荐交易 品种和离场规则。可以在【南华期货app—研报精选—策略研选】的路径下订阅， 两款 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent methanol market has been volatile. Geopolitical risks have not subsided, and the overall sentiment in the energy and chemical commodity sector has improved, leading to a strong rebound in methanol. However, from the perspective of methanol's fundamentals, there is significant negative feedback from downstream, with MTO plants shutting down one after another. The overall trading logic is expected to be strong first and then weak. It is recommended to wait for unilateral trading, and consider a 3 - 5 reverse spread + expanding MTO profit strategy [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The recent volatile methanol market is due to geopolitical risks and improved sentiment in the energy and chemical sector. After Trump announced a suspension of military strikes against Iran, methanol prices once fell below 2200. But with the U.S. Navy approaching the Middle East, concerns about methanol supply from Iran resurfaced. Subsequently, the improved outlook for the energy and chemical sector led to a rapid rise in the sector, with the aromatic series showing significant gains. However, from the perspective of methanol's fundamentals, downstream negative feedback is obvious, with MTO plants such as Xingxing and Yangmei shutting down, and others having shutdown or load - reduction expectations. In the inland region, due to the long - open port back - flow window, inventory reduction has been slow, and upstream producers face significant inventory - clearing pressure before the Spring Festival. Geopolitical risks have not subsided, and the macro - narrative logic continues, so methanol is unlikely to decline significantly in the near term [2] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 05 contract was 2250. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 05 base - spread declined [13] - **Calendar - spread Strategy**: This week, with the expectation of MTO plant shutdowns, the 3 - 5 spread moved towards a reverse spread [14] - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2100 - 2350. It is recommended to implement a 3 - 5 reverse spread + expanding MTO profit strategy [15] 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - The report provides various charts related to methanol inland inventory, including northwest methanol inventory (excluding MTO), northwest MTO inventory, southern line methanol plant inventory, northern line methanol plant inventory, national methanol plant inventory, national net methanol plant inventory (plant inventory - pre - sales), and methanol northwest pending shipments [21][25][30] 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - The report presents multiple charts about methanol port inventory, such as China's weekly methanol port inventory seasonality (from different data sources), provincial - level weekly methanol port inventory seasonality, methanol downstream inventory in the East China region (excluding Shandong), methanol coastal available inventory, weekly methanol arrivals in China, and methanol arrivals in different regions [36][52] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over three years [64] - **Hedging Strategy Table**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about falling methanol prices, it is recommended to short methanol futures to lock in profits and buy put options while selling call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low and there are concerns about rising prices, it is recommended to buy methanol futures to lock in procurement costs, sell put options to collect premiums, and lock in the purchase price if the price falls [64] - **Positive News**: Iran's opposition leader Reza Pahlavi called on workers in key oil, gas, and energy sectors to start a national - scale strike and hold large - scale demonstrations [65] - **Negative News**: Iran shipped 390,000 tons in January [66] 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Donald Trump expressed support for protesters and said the U.S. was ready to provide assistance. The U.S. government is discussing possible strikes against Iran, including air strikes on military targets, but no decision has been made [68] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland region, the current methanol operating rate is at an absolute high level, while winter is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. Coupled with high raw material inventories among downstream users and the parking plans of some port olefin plants, demand will further weaken, significantly suppressing market sentiment [69] - This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread fluctuated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [75] 3.4 Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - The report tracks the prices of various products in the methanol industry chain, including coal prices at Ordos pithead and Qinhuangdao Port, methanol prices in the Lunan market and Taicang, and the number of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of methanol [79][80][85] 3.4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - It tracks the production costs and profits of methanol produced from different raw materials, such as coal - based production in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based production in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based production in Hebei. It also tracks the profits of MTO plants and traditional downstream products [91][93][110] 3.4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Operation Rate Tracking in the Industry Chain - The report tracks the operating rates and production volumes of methanol production from different sources and downstream products, including the operating rates of major Chinese methanol enterprises, natural - gas - based methanol, and MTO plants, as well as the production volumes of coal - single - methanol, coal - combined - methanol, and coke - oven - gas - based methanol [95][99][105] 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - It tracks the import volumes of methanol from different countries, such as Malaysia and Venezuela, and the import profit of Iranian methanol. It also analyzes the price differences between domestic and foreign markets [128][130][131] 3.4.5 Overseas Operation Tracking - The report tracks the capacity utilization rate, production volume, and operating rates of methanol plants in foreign countries, including the overall overseas capacity utilization rate, production volume, and the operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian plants [133][134] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - The report provides a supply - demand balance sheet for methanol ports from January 2025 to May 2026, including data on supply (imports from Iran and non - Iran), demand (from various downstream sectors), and inventory changes [137]

中长期维度，储能、新能源乘用车及商用车三大下游应用领域的需求增长逻辑未发生本质改变，行业基本面 对碳酸锂的长期价值支撑依旧稳固，但需警惕碳酸锂、铜、铝、锡价格过快上涨对储能、商用车领域经济性 的侵蚀，这一因素或将阶段性压制下游需求释放弹性。大方向上，仍建议把握市场回调机会，采取逢低做多 的操作思路。 南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——关注卖波动率机会，中长期依然看好 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月01日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂期货价格呈现大幅减仓下降态势。展望后市，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内 外锂资源释放进度、供需两端的检修排产情况，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，当前国内可售锂精矿库存紧张格局已得到充分缓解，锂矿库存充裕。此前国内江西锂矿事件经市场 持续炒作后，消息面对行情的扰动效应已边际减弱，建议市场参与者通过官方媒体、权威行业机构及正规信 息平台获取真实准确的市场动态，提升信息甄 ...

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026/2/1 1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货铁合金周报 ——底部震荡，下方受到成本支撑 铁合金目前的矛盾是成本支撑与供需压力的博弈，形成底部有支撑，上方有压力的震荡格局。 供应端，铁合 金利润回升但仍未摆脱亏损区间，铁合金产量减产至目前的状态下继续大幅减产的可能性不大，预计产量维 持目前水平上下小幅波动，硅铁产量处于近几年历史同期最低点的水平，硅锰产量处于近几年历史同期中下 的水平。硅铁产量环比上周+0.10%，硅锰产量环比上周-0.43% 。需求端，钢厂利润近期尚可，盘面利润走 强，给了钢厂套保的机会，后续钢厂可能有复产和增产的驱动，铁水产量可能稳中回升，但下游终端钢材进 入消费淡季，消费需求季节性走弱，对铁合金的需求增量有限。库存端，硅铁库存环比上周+0.10%，硅铁仓 单库存环比上周-6.55%；硅锰库存环比上周+0.08%，硅锰仓单库存环比上周+6.70%， 硅锰库存基数仍偏 大，为近5年库存最高水平，去库压力较大，仍要需要减产来实现，并且仓单数量的增加对盘面也造成一定的 压力。 铁合金下方受到成 ...

南华期货铅产业周报 ——累库预期压制价格 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周铅价在有色板块集体狂飙后陷入"补跌与防御"并存的境地，宏观层面的避险交易虽将黄金推向历 史高点，但铅市因缺乏新能源或AI题材的长期叙事，其宏观溢价正被供需现实迅速稀释。地缘政治不稳定性 及美国政府关停预期虽一度推高通胀预期，但美联储偏鹰派的表态导致美元反弹，诱发了以铅为代表的低弹 性品种率先回调。与此同时，国内基本面呈现典型的"双弱"格局，随着春节假期临近，铅精矿成交清淡， 尽管副产白银利润可观支撑了冶炼厂的生产积极性，使得加工费（TC）维持在低位运行，但供应端的边际缩 减远不及下游需求端的"断崖式"滑坡。由此验证了，当前铅市正处于由宏观偏好驱动转向基本面季节性过 剩的切换期，库存端显现出的累库苗头正成为价格下行的核心牵引。 铅定价逻辑 source： SMM,南华研究 元/吨 元/金属吨 国产铅精矿价格 再生精铅-平均价 SMM 1#铅锭-平均价 铅精矿加工费（国产）(右轴) 21/12 22/12 23 ...

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货白糖产业周报 ——盘面减仓上涨，警惕回落风险 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 1月以来3-5价差持续震荡，上周价差小幅回升平水，因03合约受空头大幅减仓拉升，涨幅大于05。备货 行情结束后，3-5价差或迎来回落，因03合约处于国产糖库存的高峰期，且今年春节备货成交一般，后续库存 压力偏大，因此03压力会比05更大。关注后续3-5价差收缩的交易机会。 . 白糖期货月差（03-05）季节性 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 2303-2305 2403-2405 2503-2505 2603-2605 07/01 09/01 11/01 01/01 -100 -50 0 50 100 白糖工业库存季节性 source： 中糖协,南华研究 万吨 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 200 400 600 ∗ 远端交易逻辑 SR2605合约贴水广西现货， ...

南华期货集运产业周报 ——地缘扰动叠加中欧贸易量增长预期拉升远期定价 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 当前市场的核心矛盾在于"春节前季节性货量下滑的弱现实"与"地缘政治风险升级及亚欧贸易关系改善的强预 期"之间的激烈博弈。本周，红海危机外溢至波斯湾的风险显著提升，叠加印度-欧盟自贸协定落地、中英高层 互动等宏观贸易利多，共同强化了市场对长期绕行和货量潜力的预期，推动远月合约持续走强。然而，临近 春节，货主出货节奏放缓，船公司为保障装载率下调即期线上报价的"弱现实"也对近月合约形成压制，导致盘 面呈现"近弱远强"的分化格局。 上周scfi综合指数最新录得1316点（-9.68%）。其中，欧洲航线录得1418（-11%），美西航线录得1867 （-10%），美东航线2605（-10%）。本周scfi继续呈现加速下跌走势。 即期运价方面，趋势性下移较为明显。从线上报价的趋势走势来看，从第三周到第九周，价格重心下移 10%。线上week9报 ...