南华期货铁合金周报 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【现货市场】硅铁主产地内蒙72硅铁5550元/吨（+0），宁夏72硅铁5600元/吨（+100）；贸易地河北72硅铁 5900元/吨（+0），天津72硅铁5900元/吨（+0）；硅锰北方产区内蒙硅锰6517市场价5800元/吨（+0），南 方产区广西硅锰6517市场价5900元/吨（+30），贸易地江苏硅锰6517市场价5900元/吨（-50）。 【成本利润】陕西兰炭小料630元/吨（+35），宁夏硅铁生产成本5352元/吨，宁夏硅锰生产成本5942.08元/ 吨（+23.24），硅铁内蒙产区利润-49元/吨（+0）；宁夏产区利润98元/吨（+50）；硅锰北方大区利润-58.5 元/吨（+39.64），南方大区利润-417.15元/吨（+8.71）（利多）。 【供应】硅铁生产企业周度开工率为36.18%，环比上周+1.86%，硅铁周度产量为11.28万吨，环比+3.39%； 硅锰生产企业周度开工率为45.75%，环比+2.32%；硅锰周度产量20.71万吨，环比+5.77%。铁合金供应量在 利润驱动下逐渐增加，位 ...

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views Macro Perspective - In China, economic growth in July showed a marginal slowdown, but a package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect. If economic data continues to decline, relevant policies may be further strengthened. Overseas, the possibility of a September interest - rate cut remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting [2]. - In the context of weakening consumption momentum and inflation concerns, the risk of a US economic downturn has significantly increased. The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends, and Powell's speech may provide key guidance for subsequent monetary policies. In the short - term, the US dollar index may maintain a volatile pattern, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Equity Market - Last week, the stock index showed a volume - driven upward trend. Although there was no obvious positive fundamental drive, the market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to be in an upward - biased state, but trading should be cautious due to the lack of fundamental support [6]. Commodity Market - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are under pressure due to the US PPI significantly exceeding expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, they may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, or slightly strengthen. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, while alumina may show a weak - side shock, and cast aluminum alloy may also correct [9][13][14]. - **Base Metals**: Zinc prices are expected to be range - bound. Nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate within the ranges of [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan respectively. Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state. Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [18][21][23]. - **Black Metals**: Steel fundamentals are weakening, but there is still cost support. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. Coking coal and coke prices may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. Silicon iron and silicon manganese are facing increasing supply pressure [30][31][37]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices face a medium - term risk of breaking down due to the lack of positive news from the US - Russia meeting and the weakening of geopolitical support. LPG fundamentals remain loose. PTA - PX suggests buying to expand processing fees at low prices. MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [41][44][47]. - **Other Commodities**: PVC remains in a weak state. Pure benzene and styrene show a double - de - stocking trend. Fuel oil is still weak, while low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened. Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [58][60][62]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - **Market Information**: China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's economic data in July showed a slowdown. The US retail sales in July increased, but consumer confidence unexpectedly declined. The "Trump - Putin meeting" took place, and there are expectations for a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party meeting. Trump may announce semiconductor tariffs in two weeks [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestically, economic data in July slowed down, but policies are being implemented. Overseas, the September interest - rate cut is uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1823 on the previous trading day, down 93 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.1371, down 34 basis points [3]. - **Core Logic**: The US economic downturn risk is rising. The Jackson Hole meeting is crucial for observing policy trends. In the short - term, the US dollar index may fluctuate, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to trade in the 7.15 - 7.23 range [4][5]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: Last Friday, the stock index rose with reduced volume. The trading volume of the two markets decreased significantly. In the futures market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM rose with increased volume [6]. - **Core Logic**: The stock index was driven by volume last week. Although there was no fundamental positive drive, market sentiment was positive. In the short - term, the A - share market may continue to rise, but trading should be cautious [6]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver** - **Market Review**: Last week, the precious metals market was under pressure. The increase in US PPI and inflation expectations cooled the interest - rate cut expectations [9]. - **Funds and Inventory**: Long - term fund holdings of gold and silver ETFs increased, while short - term non - commercial net long positions decreased. COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories changed to different extents [10]. - **Core Logic**: In the medium - to - long - term, precious metals may be bullish, but in the short - term, they are bearish. Attention should be paid to US economic data and the Jackson Hole meeting [11]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper futures contract rose slightly during the week and then fell, closing at around 79,000 yuan per ton. Inventories in different markets changed [12]. - **Core Logic**: Copper prices are expected to fluctuate or slightly strengthen. The restart of the Chilean mine has limited impact on prices [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The US has expanded the scope of tariffs on aluminum imports. Aluminum prices may experience a short - term correction, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking [14]. - **Alumina**: Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus in the second half of the year. The market may shift to cost - based pricing, and it is expected to be in a short - term shock - adjustment state [15]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum alloy. The futures price generally follows the Shanghai aluminum price, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [16]. - **Zinc** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc contract closed at 22,505 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [17]. - **Core Logic**: Zinc fundamentals remain unchanged, and prices are expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai nickel and stainless steel contracts showed a pattern of rising and then falling during the week [19]. - **Core Logic**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel are expected to fluctuate in the [11.8 - 12.6] ten - thousand yuan and [1.25 - 1.31] ten - thousand yuan ranges respectively, with cost support [21]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin futures contract rose and then fell slightly, closing at 266,000 yuan per ton. Inventories were relatively stable [23]. - **Core Logic**: Tin prices are expected to be mainly in a range - bound state, with the delay in the resumption of Myanmar's tin mines providing support [23]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon** - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, and polysilicon futures fluctuated widely [24]. - **Core Logic**: Industrial silicon is expected to enter a shock - strengthening state, and polysilicon is expected to be in a shock - strengthening state in the medium - to - long - term [26]. - **Lead** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead contract closed at 16,850 yuan per ton, with trading volume and open interest changes [27]. - **Core Logic**: Lead fundamentals are deadlocked, and prices are expected to be range - bound [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Review**: The market showed a pattern of consolidation [29]. - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, but there is cost support. The rebar 10 - contract is expected to have support around 3100, and hot - rolled coil around 3350 [30]. - **Iron Ore** - **Core Logic**: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is neutral, and the demand from molten iron provides support. The terminal demand has some problems in the rebar segment [31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Review**: Coking coal prices fluctuated, and coke prices rose for the sixth round. The double - coking futures fluctuated widely [33]. - **Core Logic**: The macro - sentiment may fluctuate, and the market should pay attention to the changes in finished - product inventories. The supply of coking coal is in a tight - balance state, and coke supply has disturbing factors [33][34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese** - **Market Review**: The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions changed [35][36]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of ferroalloys is increasing, and the demand has certain support but also limitations. The prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: Crude oil prices showed a stop - falling adjustment after sideways trading, with the US and Brent crude oil futures prices falling [39]. - **Core Logic**: The US - Russia meeting did not bring positive news, and the geopolitical support for crude oil weakened. The medium - term risk of price breakdown is increasing [41]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: LPG futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [42][43]. - **Core Logic**: LPG fundamentals remain loose, with the supply remaining high and the demand having a slight improvement [44]. - **PTA - PX** - **Market Review**: PX - PTA prices were range - bound, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to buy to expand PTA processing fees at low prices, as PTA processing fees are at a historical low [47]. - **MEG - Bottle - Grade Chips** - **Market Review**: MEG prices were range - bound, with changes in inventory and device operations [48]. - **Core Logic**: MEG is recommended to be bought at low prices, and bottle - grade chips' prices mainly follow the cost - end fluctuations [49][50]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: Methanol 09 contract prices changed, and the inventory in different ports increased [51]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract may gradually return to fundamental pricing. The best buying point for the 01 contract needs to be waited for [52]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: PP futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [53]. - **Core Logic**: PP is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand - end and cost - end changes [54]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: PE futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [55]. - **Core Logic**: As the peak season approaches, PE demand is slowly recovering. The short - term price is expected to be in a shock - pattern, and the subsequent trend depends on the demand recovery [56]. - **PVC** - **Market Review**: PVC supply, demand, export, inventory, and price data changed [57]. - **Core Logic**: PVC remains in a weak state, with the threat of large - scale delivery in August and weak fundamentals [58]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Review**: Pure benzene and styrene futures prices changed, and the inventory decreased [60][61]. - **Core Logic**: Pure benzene is expected to be range - bound, and styrene's supply surplus has decreased. Short - term unilateral short - selling of styrene should be cautious [60][62]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Review**: High - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [63][65]. - **Core Logic**: High - sulfur fuel oil is still weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking spread has strengthened [64][65]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: Asphalt futures and spot prices changed, and the supply, demand, and inventory data also changed [66]. - **Core Logic**: Asphalt is expected to follow the cost - end in a weak - side shock. The demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortages [66]. - **Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber** - **Market Review**: Rubber futures prices changed, and the spot prices in different regions also changed [67]. - **Core Logic**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate within the range of 15700 - 16100, with cost support and inventory pressure [69].

南华期货锡风险管理日报 2025年8月18日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 锡价格波动率（日度） | 最新收盘价 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 266820 | 245000-263000 | 14.36% | 26.1% | 利多因素： 利空因素： 1. 关税政策反复。 2. 缅甸锡矿开始向中国流入。 3. 半导体板块扩张速度减缓，逐渐从扩张周期走向收缩周期。 source： 同花顺,南华研究 锡风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪锡主力期货合约 | 沪锡主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 275000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | SN2510C ...

肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79060 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | 南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月18日 南华有色金属研究团队 source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2510C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...

南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250817） ——旺季预期初见端倪，关注订单启动情况 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证证号：F03133676 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 MEG周度观点：旺季预期初见端倪，关注订单启动情况 【库存】华东港口库至55.3万吨，环比上期增加3.7万吨。 【装置】盛虹190w近期短停后重启；浙石化二期一线80w重启出料；神华榆林40w近期降负检修。海外方 面，沙特Sharq3一套55w近期再次停车。 【观点】 乙二醇价格近期以区间震荡为主。基本面方面，供应端油降煤升，总负荷降至66.39%（-2.01%）；其 中，乙烯制方面，盛虹空分影响短停后重启，预计影响1-2万吨产量；浙石化一线重启后提负；煤制方面神华 榆林降负检修，通辽金煤、中化学等装置重启后提负，煤制负荷升至80.47%（+5.33%）；后续仍有部分检修 量预期回归，若无意外，负荷仍将继续上调。效益方面，原料端原油小幅走弱，乙烯小幅走强，动力煤价格 小幅走强，煤制利润继续压缩。库存方面，本周到港计划偏多，港口发货不佳，下周一港口显性库存预计累 库3万吨 ...

南华期货钢材（螺纹钢、热卷）周报 ----钢材基本面走弱 2025/08/17 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周报核心观点 周度盘面回顾：上半周，受宁德锂矿停产、唐山轧材厂及烧结环节因阅兵限产的消息影响，以及煤矿安全会 议召开前的乐观预期推动，市场炒作情绪升温，盘面震荡上行；下半周，随着煤矿会议落幕且市场认为影响 不及预期，叠加焦煤限仓消息释放，炒作情绪显著降温，加之钢材本周数据表现疲软、累库节奏加快，盘面 呈现震荡下行。 供需存：供增需减，库存累积加速 供给：本周钢厂铁水与废钢日耗均小幅增长，意味着粗钢产量呈增加态势；从排产检修情况来看，后续铁水 产量仍将维持高位震荡，暂无明显减产迹象。利润方面，当前长流程钢厂利润依旧可观，短流程钢厂虽部分 地区利润已低于谷电利润，但下浮幅度有限，钢厂自主减产动力不足。政策层面，目前有部分地区传出烧结 限产消息，且 8 月 20 日 - 9 月 6 日唐山独立轧钢企业将因环保要求停产，后续高炉是否会受影响仍需进一步 跟踪，不过轧材厂和烧结限产确实可能对产量产生一定影响。 需求：本周五大材表需呈现明显环比下滑，其中螺 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Views - No clear core views are presented in the provided content. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Data - 10 - year Treasury bond futures (T2509.CFE) had a Friday settlement price of 108.325 with a -0.26% weekly decline; T2512.CFE settled at 108.225 with a -0.26% weekly decline [7]. - 5 - year Treasury bond futures (TF2509.CFE) settled at 105.675 with a -0.14% weekly decline; TF2512.CFE settled at 105.670 with a -0.19% weekly decline [7]. - 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS2509.CFE) settled at 102.346 with a -0.02% weekly decline; TS2512.CFE settled at 102.384 with a -0.05% weekly decline [7]. - 30 - year Treasury bond futures (TL2509.CFE) settled at 117.660 with a -1.33% weekly decline; TL2512.CFE settled at 117.210 with a -1.40% weekly decline [7]. Spread Data - The T2509 - T2512 inter - delivery spread was 0.100 with no weekly change; TF2509 - TF2512 was 0.005 with a -1.143 weekly change; TS2509 - TS2512 was -0.038 with a -0.095 weekly change [7]. - The 2TS - T cross - variety spread was 301.059 with a 0.189 weekly increase; 2TF - T was 103.025 with a -0.005 weekly change; TS - TF was 99.017 with a 0.097 weekly increase [7]. Spot Bond Yields - 1Y Treasury bond yield was 1.37% with a 1.32 BP weekly increase; 2Y was 1.40% with a 0.72 BP increase; 3Y was 1.41% with a -0.65 BP decrease [7]. - 5Y Treasury bond yield was 1.59% with a 4.92 BP increase; 7Y was 1.69% with a 3.70 BP increase; 10Y was 1.75% with a 5.80 BP increase; 30Y was 2.05% with a 9.05 BP increase [7]. - 1Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.53% with a 3.18 BP increase; 3Y was 1.66% with a 2.93 BP increase; 5Y was 1.74% with a 7.47 BP increase [7]. - 7Y China Development Bank bond yield was 1.86% with a 6.83 BP increase; 10Y was 1.86% with a 7.87 BP increase; 30Y was 2.15% with a 9.80 BP increase [7]. Funding Rates - The inter - bank pledged repo rate DROO1 was 1.40% with a 9.03 BP weekly increase; DR007 was 1.48% with a 5.47 BP increase; DR014 was 1.51% with a 3.28 BP increase [7]. - SHIBOR1M was 1.53% with a 0.04 BP increase; SHIBOR3N was 1.55% with a -0.74 BP decrease [7].

南华期货焦煤焦炭周报 ——成材表需超季节性走弱，旺季需求表现待验证 2025/08/15 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【盘面回顾】本周产地焦煤整体波动不大，部分煤种下调报价，口岸蒙煤跟随盘面震荡，安泽低硫主焦报价 1470-1480元/吨，口岸蒙5#原煤1000元/吨左右波动。周内焦炭现货6轮提涨落地，即期焦化利润环比修复。 本周双焦盘面宽幅震荡，9-1价差底部震荡，JM9-1月差-149.5(+8)，J9-1月差-76.5(+4)。 供需平衡表 . | 焦煤周度平衡表 (万吨) | Week18 | Week19 | Week20 | Week21 | Week22 | Week23 | Week24 | Week25 | Week26 | Week27 | Week28 | Week29 | Week30 | Week31 | Week32 | Week33 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

白糖产业风险管理日报 2025/08/15 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 白糖近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 5600-6000 | 4.40% | 2.2% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 白糖风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 区间 | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 糖价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空郑糖期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | SR2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 5800-58 50 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若糖价上涨 | | | | | | | | | 还可以锁定现 ...

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/08/15 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 7600-8400 | 10.5% | 0.1% | 【利多解读 】 1、产区库存处于历史低位，产区期初库存偏低同时前期去库速度大于往年，导致随着时间推移产区库存持续 下降，对盘面起到依托作用。 2、产地不稳定的天气因素引发资金关注，有调研数据报告显示，西北产区坐果情况不佳，可能有较大减产。 source： 南华研究,同花顺 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 ...