螺纹钢、热卷产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 严志妮 投资咨询证号：Z0022076 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 螺纹价格区间预测 | | 01合约区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 波动率百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | 3000-3300 | 11.63% | 16.5% | | 热卷 | 3200-3500 | 11.11% | 9.72% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 螺纹风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 | RB2501 | | 30% | 3150-3 200 | | | | | 况，做空螺纹或是热卷期货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | 卖出 | | | | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心 钢材价格下跌 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish strategy for cotton investment [5] 2. Core View of the Report - Zhengzhou cotton continued its weak performance this week. New cotton listing is delayed, and downstream demand shows signs of weakening. With new cotton about to enter the market, cotton prices face significant hedging pressure [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Market - **Supply**: As of September 18, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.8%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and down 0.2 percentage points from the four - year average. The national delivery rate was 15.8%, up 6 percentage points year - on - year and 7.1 percentage points from the four - year average [1] - **Import**: In August, China's cotton import volume was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons. The棉纱 import volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: In August, domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 104.5 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 8.74% and a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Textile and clothing export volume was $26.539 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% and a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Inventory**: As of September 15, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.038 million tons, a decrease of 336,000 tons from the end of August. Commercial inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 305,800 tons, and industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons [1] International Market - **US Supply**: As of September 21, the US cotton boll opening rate was 60%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 12%, 1 percentage point behind year - on - year and the same as the five - year average. The overall good and excellent rate of cotton plants was 47%, a month - on - month decrease of 5 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 10 percentage points [1] - **US Demand**: From September 12 - 18, the net signing of US 25/26 - year - old upland cotton was 19,527 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 54% and a decrease of 54% compared with the four - week average. The shipment of upland cotton was 31,116 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14% and an increase of 6% compared with the four - week average. The net signing of Pima cotton was 1,928 tons, and the shipment was 1,179 tons. There were no new signings for 26/27 - year - old upland and Pima cotton this week [1] - **Southeast Asian Supply**: As of recently, India's cotton planting area was 10.964 million hectares, a 2.5% decrease from the same period last year. Some southern states had an increase in planting area, but due to rainfall, there are still differences in the market's prediction of India's new - year cotton output [1] - **Southeast Asian Demand**: In August, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was $3.86 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. Bangladesh's clothing export volume was $3.17 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 20.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. In July, India's clothing export volume was $1.34 billion, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In August, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was $1.524 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 9.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.34% [4] Market Outlook - New cotton in Xinjiang may be concentrated on the market during the National Day. Downstream yarn mills maintain stable load and replenish raw materials as needed, but the overall operating rate of fabric mills has slightly decreased, and the off - take speed of finished products has slowed down. Brazil's cotton production is expected to increase, but its market expansion faces challenges. Last week, the weekly export volume of US cotton decreased [3]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——化工稳增长通知出台，EG实质影响有限 2025/09/26 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4150-4450 | 9.75% | 3.2% | | PX | 6400-7100 | 12.56% | 27.4% | | PTA | 4400-5000 | 12.61% | 19.0% | | 瓶片 | 5600-6200 | 9.81% | 13.4% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防 ...

本周岚山现货3.9米中A，5.9米小A价格上调10元（千里目数据）。其余无变化。 南华原木产业周报 外盘报价上看，太平洋最新报价为115美金（+2），TPT报价115（+0），长青报价116.5（+1）。 2025年9月26日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 ——外盘报价小幅上涨 | 原木数据纵览 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 指标 | 更新日期 | 数值 | 环差 | 同比 | 频率 | 单位 | | 供应 | 辐射松进口量 | 2025-08-31 | 130 | -10 | -3.7% | 月 | 万m³ | | 库存 | 港口库存（中国） | 2025-09-19 | 292 | -10 | -9.9% | 周 | 万m³ | | | 港口库存（山东） | 2025-09-19 | 1766000 | -64000 | 0.4% | 周 | m³ | | | 港口库存（江苏） | 2025-09-19 | 916619 | - ...

今日集运指数（欧线）期货（EC）价格如预期延续震荡走势。 截至收盘，EC各合约价格涨跌互现。从 交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510合约多头减仓1523手至18659手，空头减仓1060手至19737 手，交易量减少16778手至26471手（双边）。如此前预期，临近国庆假期，部分投资者逐渐平仓。 来自于现舱报价的回升——马士基公布的10月中旬欧线现舱报价止降回升和MSC跟进上调近期欧线报 价，带来的利多影响相对趋缓，欧线现舱报价今日暂无明显变动，影响趋于中性。而特朗普再度对部分特定 商品加征关税也从宏观情绪角度带来小幅利空。值得注意的是，下周剩余两个交易日，仍需关注节前资金波 动带来的风险。最新一期SCFI欧线跌至1000美元/TEU以下，可能给市场带来一定的利空因素，短期来看，期 价仍延续震荡或震荡偏下行的可能性较大；12合约可继续关注低多机会，整体以观望或日内短线做空为主。 【利多解读】 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

南华豆一产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 豆一11合约价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 3850-4000 | 10.16% | 31.4% | source： 南华研究,wind,同花顺 豆一风险策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 种植主体，秋季收获新豆售粮 需求较大，但阶段性卖压较大 | 多 | 借助期价反弹，适当 锁定种植利润，做空 | A2511 | 空 | 30% | 4000-4050（持有） | | | 使价格承压 | | 豆一期货 | | | | | | 库存管理 | 集中上市，卖方议价权减弱 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权，提高 | A2511- ...

——现货磨底 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响尿素走势的核心矛盾有以下几点：一是季节性的需求淡季，二是出口预期的结束。我们认为尿 素或维持震荡走势。我们可以看到，近期尿素价格走势和现货情况呈现了高度的相关性，后期需要关注现货 成交情况。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 source： 南华研究,同花顺 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 23/12 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 25/08 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 source： 南华研究 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 2 4 6 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便宜可交割品地点仍为河南与山东。考虑到01合约出口预期消失，1-5月差走反 套。由于01合约还有秋季肥预期，尿素01合约仍有升水。 南华期货尿素产业周报 * 远端交易预期 截止本周国内尿素日产20.01万吨，下周潞安大颗粒、赤天化装置陆续恢复，金象装置检修，天泽检修计划或 有推迟，预计下周国内尿素日产量继续小幅提 ...

玉米&淀粉产业链日报 2025/09/26 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z002181） 康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾 】 新季供应压力显现，新粮报价高开后持续回落，集中上市期价格仍将承压； 当前玉米上量有限，部分地区推迟收获，现货价格相较于期货端呈现一定韧性，期货盘面止跌反弹； 当前基差处于偏高水平，随着进入新粮大量上市，基差面临回落风险； CBOT玉米低位盘整，消化丰产预期压力及等待供应端进一步指引； 阿根廷短期出口政策反复，对农产品市场价格造成意外扰动； 【利多解读】 1、9月25日，农业农村部召开全国粮油作物大面积单产提升暨"三秋"生产视频会，后期中储粮收购储备政策 或将视价格运行情况择机出台，存有不确定性； 2、8月进口玉米保持地量水平，替代压力较小； 3、旧季粮源供应偏紧，部分产区收获延迟，补充尚需时间，深加工刚需补库支撑现货价格； 【利空解读】 玉米&淀粉期货盘面价格 | | 2025-09-24 | 2025-09-25 | 今日涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玉米1 ...

丙烯产业风险管理日报 2025/09/25 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 丙烯 | 6250-6600 | 0.0556 | 0.1666 | 【利空解读】 产业数据汇总 source： 同花顺,南华研究 丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为防止存货跌价损失，可根据企业库 存情况，逢高空配丙烯期货来锁定利 润 | PL2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 6500-6600 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本， 若现货价格上涨还可以锁定卖出价格 | PL2601C66 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: September 25, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets showed a strong and volatile trend. The nickel ore supply was unstable due to sanctions on mining companies in Indonesia and the approaching quota approval in October. The cobalt price was expected to rise, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. The nickel iron price decreased due to stainless - steel demand constraints, and the stainless - steel market was also strong but with weak spot trading. The decline of the US dollar in the macro - level led to an upward movement in the non - ferrous metals market [3] - There were both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors included the proposed revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, the shortening of the nickel ore quota period, continuous de - stocking of stainless steel, and the takeover of some nickel - producing areas. Negative factors included high pure nickel inventory, tariff disturbances, and weak stainless - steel spot trading [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The predicted price range of Shanghai nickel was 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] - **Stainless Steel**: The predicted price range of stainless steel was 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.95% and a historical percentile of 0.3% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price declined and inventory had impairment risk, it was recommended to sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: When the company had future production procurement needs and was worried about rising raw material prices, it was recommended to buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3] Market Data Nickel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Nickel Main Contract | 122,990 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 1 | 122,990 | 1,540 | 1.27% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 2 | 123,160 | 1,530 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | Shanghai Nickel Continuous 3 | 123,350 | 1,460 | 1.26% | yuan/ton | | LME Nickel 3M | 15,240 | - 195 | - 1.20% | US dollars/ton | | Trading Volume | 177,030 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 99,642 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 25,153 | 48 | 0.19% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | - 505 | 185 | - 26.8% | yuan/ton | [5] Stainless Steel | Indicator | Latest Value |环比差值 |环比 | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Stainless Steel Main Contract | 12,930 | 0 | 0% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 1 | 12,930 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 2 | 12,970 | 30 | 0.23% | yuan/ton | | Stainless Steel Continuous 3 | 13,030 | 35 | 0.27% | yuan/ton | | Trading Volume | 129,897 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Open Interest | 109,896 | 0 | 0.00% | lots | | Warehouse Receipts | 87,505 | - 298 | - 0.34% | tons | | Main Contract Basis | 640 | - 35 | - 5.19% | yuan/ton | [5] Inventory Data | Inventory Type | Latest Value | Change from Previous Period | | --- | --- | --- | | Domestic Social Inventory of Nickel | 41,484 tons | + 429 tons | | LME Nickel Inventory | 230,586 tons | 0 tons | | Stainless Steel Social Inventory | 909 tons | + 11.8 tons | | Nickel Pig Iron Inventory | 28,652 tons | - 614.5 tons | [6] Positive and Negative Factors - **Positive Factors**: The Indonesian APNI planned to revise the HPM formula, the nickel ore quota period was shortened from three years to one year, stainless steel had been de - stocking for several weeks, and the Indonesian forestry working group took over part of the nickel - producing area of PT Weda Bay [5] - **Negative Factors**: The pure nickel inventory was high, there were still tariff disturbances between China and the US, the EU stainless - steel import tariff was uncertain, the anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates in South Korea was implemented, and the stainless - steel spot trading was weak [5]