戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）宏观情绪与政策扰动：近期盘面多受到"反内卷"相关消息的影响，驱动一些化工品低位反弹，在基本面有 改善前，以反弹看待。 2）现货供需相对平稳：本周供需差整体变动不大，供应端广州石化提负、劲海化工重启、青海盐湖关停，整 体开工及产量变动不大；需求端本周小幅增加，PP开工小幅下行，其他下游环氧丙烷开工小幅下行，正丁醇 小幅上行。山东市场，本周延续供增需减，价格承压下跌。 南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——关注装置变动 1.1 核心矛盾 4000 | 4000 | | | | 4000 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 04/01 | 07/01 | 10/01 | | 04/01 | 07/01 | 10/01 | | source： 南华 ...

——短期或面临利好出尽 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前锡市正处于"供应焦虑证伪"与"需求负反馈"的双重夹击之下。前期支撑锡价冲高至34.8万元/吨 的核心逻辑是"原料紧缺预期"，但随着印尼11月精炼锡出口激增以及国内11月锡矿进口量的环比大幅改 善，这一逻辑基石正在松动。市场必须正视的产业现实是：供应端的瓶颈正在被贸易流的恢复所打破，而需 求端却因高价产生了剧烈的排斥反应。SMM数据显示，尽管冶炼厂开工率维持高位，但社会库存已悄然累积 至9378吨（环比增186吨），这种在消费旺季尾声出现的累库现象，直接证伪了"缺货"的伪命题。更深层 的矛盾在于，光伏组件排产环比下降12.5%与消费电子订单的持续疲软，使得下方需求承接力极度脆弱。因 此，在原料约束缓解与投机资金获利离场的共振下，锡价的高位估值已失去基本面锚点，盘面逻辑正从"强 预期"强行切换回"弱现实"，震荡下行是阻力最小的方向。 南华期货锡产业周报 LME锡-沪锡3月连续价差 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 L ...

南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——关注下月矿山复产节奏 张泫 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723 联系邮箱：zhangxuan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月26日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【核心逻辑】本周钢联和汾渭口径矿山均减产累库，下游焦企仅维持刚需采购，厂内原料库存少量增加，大 面积冬储补库暂未开始，焦煤库存结构仍在持续恶化。进口端，本周蒙煤最高日通关车数超1700车，口岸监 管区库存压力较大。澳煤价格指数稳中有涨，内外价差倒挂严重，海煤进口窗口收窄，后续焦煤到港可能有 所回落。目前焦煤供应理论平衡铁水点为241左右，实际铁水仅为226.58，理论过剩量超10万吨。下游方 面，焦炭三轮提降全面落地，即期焦化利润边际回落。本周焦企开工率维稳，产量环比变化不大，目前焦炭 理论平衡铁水点为232左右，理论过剩量约为5万吨。展望后市，随着蒙煤年末冲量结束，叠加海煤到港预期 减少，1月进口压力或有所缓和。后续需重点关注国内矿山年初的复产节奏与复产弹性（即"开门红"），若复 产不及预期，冬储补库可能为焦煤价格反弹提供动力。反之，若供应恢复超预期， ...

2026 I 2025 12 2026 1 1 2 50ETF 50ETF 50ETF 2011 1290 lzming@nawaa.com Z0023459 2 1 2 2026 I 2025 12 | 1. | 1 | | --- | --- | | 2.2025 | 6 | | 3. | 10 | | 4. | 35 | 1. 1.1 2026 | 50ETF | | --- | 1.1. 2025 A 12 17 50 11% 300 15% 1000 22% 2026 12 17 50ETF 12.93% 20 11.06% -40.00% -30.00% -20.00% -10.00% 0.00% 10.00% 20.00% 30.00% 5.00% 15.00% 25.00% 35.00% 45.00% 55.00% 65.00% 8/16/2020 8/16/2021 8/16/2022 8/16/2023 8/16/2024 8/16/2025 IV-HV 20 1.1.1 50ETF 50ETF ETF 1.1.2 1 2026 I 2025 12 1.2. 2025 3717.4 1.2 ...

1.1 核心矛盾 当前新年度疆棉丰产落地，截至2025年12月25日，全国新年度棉花公证检验量累计606.41万吨，近日平均日 度公检量已降至5.5万吨左右，国内棉花商业库存显著回升，但在上年度低库存的现实基础与新年度低进口的 未来预期下，国内新年度整体供应增幅缩窄，现货价格坚挺，下游随着国内纺纱产能扩张，且新疆纱厂维持 高负荷运行，棉花刚需消费提升，内需在宏观政策支持下呈温和增长的态势，而中美关税的下调有利于我国 纺服出口的恢复，国内棉花消费得到支撑，使得新年度国内棉花供需预期偏紧，同时，本年度为三年一定的 目标价格补贴政策的最后一年，在新疆粮食保供方针及新疆水资源问题下，市场对明年政策调整的预期较 强，本周新疆当地组织召开会议制定棉花种植面积调减方案，市场对下年度疆棉面积缩减的预期进一步加 强，导致近期棉价重心持续且加速上移。 中国棉花累计检验量季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 南华期货棉花棉纱周报 ——供给预期持续发酵，棉价加速上行 2025/12/26 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - **Macro**: Overseas, the US GDP in Q3 grew by 4.3% year - on - year, and the employment market recovered, weakening the rate - cut expectation. Domestically, the government will continue to implement proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, with expanding domestic demand as the primary task next year. However, the domestic demand in November was weak, still needing policy support [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: Although there is an expectation that the RMB will "break 7 and enter 6" in 2026, there are three potential risks. The RMB's real purchasing power is underestimated, and the narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread is the core trigger for its appreciation. The attractiveness of the capital market has become a key variable for the exchange - rate trend [4]. - **Stock Index**: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly. Although the market sentiment has improved, there is still pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end and tightened capital [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: Maintain a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term bond market. Hold mid - term long positions [8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a narrow - range consolidation, weighing between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", waiting for a clear pre - holiday driver [9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: In the medium - to - long term, the bull market foundation of platinum remains. In the short term, beware of adjustment risks due to the large futures - spot price difference and light spot trading [16]. - **Gold & Silver**: In the short term, gold is in a relatively strong state after breaking through the previous high, while silver has high price risks. In the medium - to - long term, maintain a bullish view [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price has exceeded the expected range. After reaching a new high, the long - short game intensifies, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: For aluminum, it is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term. For alumina, it is in an oversupply situation and is expected to run weakly. For cast aluminum alloy, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [21][22]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock [24]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to operate within the range [25]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, beware of sharp fluctuations. In the medium - to - long term, there are opportunities to go long on dips [26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, with value for long - term bottom - fishing. Polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals, and new registered warehouse receipts should be monitored [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 in the short term [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, with the rebar 2605 contract between 2900 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract between 3000 - 3400 [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to run within a range, with limited upside space after valuation repair [33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve. For coke, if steel mills resume production quickly, the supply - demand structure is expected to improve [35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and they may follow the steel - price trend [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The current market is neutral. The "breaking 7" of the RMB brings macro - level benefits, and the price has rebounded from a low level. For offset - paper futures, the market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to wait and see or try short - term long positions [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price. Follow - up attention should be paid to the development of the situation [43]. - **LPG**: The fundamentals are stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern and is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall. PTA's processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The fundamentals are mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, with an internal - weak and external - strong pattern. Styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation, and the follow - up should focus on relevant news [56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: In the long - term, it can be bullish, but in the short - to - medium term, focus on the fundamentals. The near - term出栏 pressure remains, while the far - term is affected by expectations and shows a strong trend [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market soybeans are waiting for the January USDA report, and the internal - market soybean meal should focus on the supply increase from state reserves. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: In the short term, they will continue to fluctuate. Palm oil is relatively strong in the sector, and attention should be paid to the production and biodiesel market information [70]. - **Cotton**: In the short term, the hedging pressure on cotton prices is gradually digested. In the long - term, the supply - demand may be tight, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still excessive, and the price is under pressure. In the short term, some farmers are culling hens. It is recommended to take a light - position long position if betting on a rebound [74][75]. - **Apples**: The near - term is strong, and the far - term is weak. Wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: In the short term, the jujube price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. In the long - term, the supply - demand is loose, and the price will be under pressure [78][79]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market News**: The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded to issues such as the relaxation of rare - earth magnet exports to the US, TikTok's joint - venture establishment in the US, and opposed the US's additional 301 tariffs on Chinese semiconductor products. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0066 on the previous trading day, and the mid - price rose. Japan raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year and is approaching the 2% inflation target [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index closed up on the previous trading day, and the market sentiment improved. However, there is pressure on the index due to the approaching year - end [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury bond closed down on Thursday, and the trading volume of medium - and long - term varieties continued to shrink. The market adheres to a non - pessimistic view on the medium - term [7][8]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures market fluctuates between "weak reality" and "strong expectation", with spot - price increase games and geopolitical disturbances [9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to limit positions. The long - term prospects of platinum are good, but beware of short - term adjustment risks [14][16]. - **Gold & Silver**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas, while the domestic night - session was active. Silver rose sharply. Pay attention to the appointment of the new Fed chairman and economic data [17]. - **Copper**: The CSPT did not set a spot - purchase guidance price for Q1 2026. The copper price has reached a new high, and the price volatility is expected to increase in Q1 [18][19]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium term, alumina is in an over - supply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the aluminum - price trend [20][21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has strong support below. The supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, but the short - term raw - material supply is tight. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level [22][23]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: They showed a slight correction and are expected to fluctuate widely. The nickel - ore market is expected to be stable and strong, and the stainless - steel market is relatively stable [23][24]. - **Tin**: It fluctuated widely at a high level. The supply from Myanmar and Indonesia is expected to recover in December, and the demand has no obvious increase in the short term [25][29]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price decreased, and the trading volume and open interest declined. The industry is in a state of production increase and inventory reduction [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is in a supply - demand double - weak pattern, and polysilicon has deviated from the fundamentals. Pay attention to new registered warehouse receipts [27][28]. - **Lead**: The lead price rebounded slightly. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is expected to fluctuate between 16700 - 17500 [28][29]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel price rebounded due to the rise of coking coal and iron ore prices and then fluctuated. The supply may increase, and the demand is in the off - season [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: The port inventory is accumulating, but the steel - mill inventory is low. The iron - water production is expected to bottom out, and the price is expected to run within a range [32][33]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking - coal inventory structure is deteriorating, and the coke's third - round price cut has been fully implemented. As the terminal winter - storage replenishment approaches, the coking - coal inventory structure is expected to improve [34][35][36]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They rebounded from the bottom last week due to policy and cost factors. The supply may decrease, and the demand is expected to decline [37][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp price rebounded from a low level, and the offset - paper market sentiment improved. The port pulp inventory is decreasing, and some pulp mills have reduced prices [39][40][41]. - **Crude Oil**: The overseas market was closed for Christmas. The escalating geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela will drive up the short - term oil price [42][43]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuated, and the fundamentals were stable. The near - term price has support, while the expected price is under pressure [44][45]. - **PTA - PX**: PX is in a good supply - demand pattern, and PTA's production has decreased significantly. The PTA processing - fee expectation center moves up, but the space is limited [47][48][49]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The demand for ethylene glycol is weakening, and the supply has initially shown support signals. The over - supply expectation will continue to suppress the valuation [50][51]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price is mixed, with a near - term weak and long - term strong expectation. Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene is in an over - supply situation, and styrene has changed from strong reality to weak expectation. Follow - up attention should be paid to relevant news [54][56]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is in an over - supply situation, and the price is expected to be under pressure. Glass needs to digest high inventory, and caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly [57][58][62]. - **Log**: It has low volatility, with limited upside and downside space. Consider interval operations [63][64]. - **Propylene**: It maintains a loose supply situation and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [65][66]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The futures price decreased slightly, and the spot price showed regional differences. The long - term can be bullish, but focus on the short - to - medium - term fundamentals [67]. - **Oilseeds**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. The soybean supply is expected to be stable, and the rapeseed supply is low. Wait for a definite opportunity [68][69]. - **Oils and Fats**: The external - market was closed for Christmas. Palm oil production is expected to decline, and the demand is expected to increase. The overall market will continue to fluctuate [70]. - **Cotton**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic cotton price rose. The new - season cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease, and attention should be paid to pre - holiday downstream orders [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The external - market was closed for Christmas, and the domestic sugar price fell. In the short term, it is difficult for the sugar price to rise further after the basis repair [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The futures price was stable, and the spot price was mainly stable. The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and some farmers are culling hens [74][75]. - **Apples**: The futures price fluctuated horizontally, and the spot price was stable. The consumption has slowed down, and wait for the price to pull back to go long [76][77]. - **Jujubes**: The new - jujube harvest is basically completed. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the long - term supply - demand is loose [78][79].

南华期货有色金属锡2026年度展望 ——物以锡为贵 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月26日 第一章 观点概要 摘要： 价格趋势预测： 全年宽幅震荡，整体重心上移。上半年伴随供给修复与AI泡沫或承压运行；下半年随宏 观宽松落地与基本面紧平衡共振上行。 供给端：缅甸，印尼，刚果金三大供应区不确定性均较大，上半年供应或较今年更强，但伴随缅甸雨 季，刚果金战乱发酵，印尼配额限制等因素持续影响，下半年供应端扰动持续。 需求端： 消费电子进入复苏周期；AI权重较小，但驱动较强；其余传统耗锡板块维持平稳增长。 预测区间：我们预计2026年SHFE沪锡主力合约核心波动区间在27.5-40万元/吨，伦锡波动区间在38500- 56000美元/吨。 风险提示：全球宏观环境，AI泡沫，供给端扰动等不可抗力。 第二阶段（5月下旬-9月）：负反馈显现，宏观退潮下的深度回调。 5月下旬起，行情进入长达4个月的 调整期。一方面，前期飙升的锡价对下游焊料企业的采购意愿形成了显著的抑制作用，高价负反馈导致现货 成交低迷，社会库存去化受阻。另一方面，印尼RKAB审批逐 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry No information provided regarding the report's investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, with multi - dimensional domestic and international policies, the lithium carbonate industry will see growth in demand from new energy vehicles and energy storage. The supply of lithium resources will increase steadily, but the price of lithium carbonate will be affected by multiple factors, showing a pattern of "bottom support, top constraint, and stage fluctuations dominated by expectations" [1][2][5]. - The new energy vehicle market is transitioning from high - growth to structural adjustment. Domestic policies will focus on increasing the battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid (including extended - range) models, while overseas policies vary by country. The energy storage industry will develop around the goals of efficient use of renewable energy and energy system security, with significant regional differences in policies [8][12][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Viewpoint Summary 3.1.1 Policy End - Domestic policies in 2025, such as the preferential procurement of new energy vehicles by government agencies and the new energy vehicle countryside campaign, helped the industry achieve its annual sales target ahead of schedule. In 2026, the focus will be on plug - in hybrid vehicles, increasing their battery capacity per vehicle. Although the vehicle purchase tax halving policy may suppress short - term growth, the long - term trend is positive. In the energy storage field, after the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, policies focus on new energy consumption [1]. - Internationally, European countries have introduced subsidy and leasing policies to meet carbon emission assessments. The United States, India, and South Korea have different new energy vehicle policies. In the energy storage field, the US focuses on large - scale projects and technological breakthroughs, Europe relies on subsidies and market mechanisms, and African countries like South Africa emphasize the self - controllability of the industrial chain [1]. 3.1.2 Supply End - In 2026, global lithium resource supply will increase by about 471,000 tons of lithium carbonate, showing a pattern of "overseas - led, domestic and international coordinated release". Domestic production will see significant growth, especially in salt - lake lithium extraction. However, high lithium prices may stimulate the resumption of production of suspended mines [2]. - In the second half of 2025, lithium carbonate production remained high. The capacity utilization rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction was relatively high, that of lepidolite - based lithium extraction was low due to production suspension, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled material - based lithium extraction gradually recovered [2]. 3.1.3 Demand End - In the new energy vehicle field, from January to November 2025, domestic production increased by more than 32% year - on - year, with pure - electric vehicles leading and hybrid vehicles collaborating. From 2026 to 2027, the increase in battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid vehicles will drive the demand for lithium carbonate [2]. - In the energy storage market, from January to November 2025, the tender and winning scale expanded steadily. This was supported by policies and market mechanisms, and the decline in lithium battery costs and the maturity of large - capacity battery cell technology further enhanced the economy of energy storage systems. The consumer battery cell market also performed well, with demand surging in the fourth quarter of 2025 and expected high - speed growth in 2026 [2]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - In 2026, the explosive growth of the energy storage field will push up the cost curve of lithium resources and the price center of lithium carbonate. However, the upper price limit will be restricted by factors such as the resumption of production of mines at high prices, profit pressure in the battery cell link, and the price comparison effect of alternative batteries. The lower price limit will be anchored to the cash cost. The price will fluctuate based on the verification of "expectations and reality" [5]. - Futures prices are more affected by market sentiment, with stronger short - term upward elasticity than spot prices [5]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Review - In the first quarter of 2025, the market expected post - holiday demand to pick up, but after the Spring Festival, the unexpected resumption of production of the Jianxiawo mine increased supply, while downstream demand was overdrawn, causing the futures price of lithium carbonate to fall from its high [6]. - In the second quarter, the demand for lithium carbonate was weak during the peak season, and the Trump administration's tariff policy on China led to a general decline in the commodity market, further depressing the futures price [6]. - In the third quarter, the market sentiment improved. Supply concerns due to issues such as mine certificates and production suspension pushed up the lithium price. However, the expected resumption of production of the Jianxiawo mine later reversed the supply expectation and led to price fluctuations [6]. - In the fourth quarter, the release of energy storage demand led to a "strong supply and demand" situation, and the price center of lithium carbonate continued to rise [6]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.3.1 New Energy Policies 3.3.1.1 New Energy Vehicle Policies - In 2025, domestic new energy vehicle policies, such as the preferential procurement of government agencies and the new energy vehicle countryside campaign, helped the industry achieve its annual sales target. By November 2025, the cumulative sales of domestic new energy vehicles reached 15.5 million [8]. - In 2026, domestic policies will focus on increasing the battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid vehicles, which will drive the growth of the power battery market. However, the vehicle purchase tax halving policy may suppress short - term market growth [8]. - Internationally, European countries will face stricter carbon emission assessments and have introduced subsidy policies. Other countries have different policies: India has set a low electric vehicle penetration target, the US is ending its subsidy policy, and South Korea is increasing subsidies [10]. 3.3.1.2 Energy Storage Policies - Domestically, after the cancellation of mandatory energy storage allocation, policies focus on new energy consumption, promoting the coupling of energy storage with terminal energy demand through scenario - based projects and activating the "peak - shaving and valley - filling" function of energy storage [12]. - Internationally, the US focuses on large - scale energy storage projects and technological breakthroughs, European countries use subsidy and market - based mechanisms, and African countries like South Africa aim to build a self - controllable industrial chain [15][16]. 3.3.2 Lithium Resources 3.3.2.1 Global Lithium Resources - In 2026, the global new supply of lithium resources is expected to reach 471,000 tons of lithium carbonate, with overseas accounting for 60%. Attention should be paid to the price conditions for the resumption of Australian mines and geopolitical risks in Africa [20]. 3.3.2.2 Chinese Lithium Resources - In 2025, domestic lithium resource supply increased significantly, with lithium ore production reaching 265,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent and salt - lake lithium extraction reaching 146,600 tons. In 2026, the production is expected to grow by over 40% [22]. - In terms of imports, domestic lithium concentrate imports are increasing, with Australia accounting for about 50%. African imports decline in the second quarter due to the rainy season, and imports increased in the second half of 2025 due to rising prices [25]. - In 2025, domestic lithium carbonate imports were about 230,000 tons, mainly from southern hemisphere salt - lake regions. Imports from Chile and Argentina decreased in the third quarter due to winter and equipment maintenance [34]. 3.3.3 Chinese Lithium Salt Production - Since the second half of 2025, domestic lithium carbonate production has remained high. The capacity utilization rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction was above 65%, that of lepidolite - based lithium extraction was about 30% due to mine suspension, and that of recycled material - based lithium extraction rose from 20% to about 33% [37]. 3.3.4 Battery Cells - In 2025, China's total lithium battery production is expected to reach 1,859 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 43%. Power batteries are the main driver of growth, with an output of 1,226.55 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 39.74%. Energy storage battery cells and consumer battery cells also performed well, with growth rates of 52.33% and 42.24% respectively [40]. 3.3.5 Terminal Applications 3.3.5.1 New Energy Vehicles - From January to November 2025, domestic new energy vehicle production reached 14.867 million, a significant year - on - year increase. Pure - electric vehicles led the growth, while hybrid vehicles also increased steadily. From 2026 to 2027, the increase in battery capacity per vehicle of plug - in hybrid vehicles will drive the demand for lithium carbonate [44]. 3.3.5.2 Energy Storage - From January to November 2025, the tender and winning scale of the domestic energy storage market continued to expand, with a cumulative winning capacity of 160.39 GWh. This growth was supported by policies and market mechanisms, and the maturity of large - capacity battery cell technology enhanced the economy of energy storage systems [49]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.4.1 Valuation Feedback No information provided regarding the global lithium resource valuation - cash cost. 3.4.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - In 2026, the total supply of lithium resources will reach 2.131 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 28.37%), and the total demand will be 2.036 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 23.87%), with the surplus narrowing to 95,000 tons. The high elasticity of supply will suppress the upper price limit, while the structural growth of demand will push up the lower price limit [54]. - In terms of demand structure, the demand for power batteries will reach 1.15 million tons in 2026 (a year - on - year increase of 20.55%), and the demand for energy storage batteries will increase by 50% year - on - year to 564,000 tons. The demand side has the potential for over - performance [55]. 3.4.3 Price Outlook - In the scenario of rising prices in 2026, lithium prices will fluctuate upwards in the early stage. If demand materializes in March - April, battery - grade lithium carbonate will rise to over 130,000 yuan/ton and then enter a volatile phase. In the third quarter, if demand remains strong, it will start a second wave of increase and reach the annual high in October - November [57]. - In the scenario of falling prices in 2026, if demand is lower than expected in March - April, battery - grade lithium carbonate will fall quickly. If supply expansion exceeds expectations, prices will continue to decline. The price decline of battery - grade lithium hydroxide will be similar to that of lithium carbonate [58].

南华期货镍&不锈钢2026年度展望 ——供需结构调整周期，随势而动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 一、核心观点 1.1核心观点 2025 年镍市场整体走势先扬后抑，上半年整体受政策以及宏观面带动偏多，印尼年内出台一系列加工规范化 新规，并且出台HMA基准价均带来小幅情绪上移，此外年内中美关系走势进一步扰动风险管理偏好。需求端 的强弱变化作为底部中枢影响着价格的震荡区间，供给端的印尼冶炼与湿法中间品项目继续按节奏释放，整 体供应环境保持稳定，期间虽有政策讨论诸如配额、成本机制调整以及项目审查等，但这些变化并未显著改 变实际产量。由于此前多批新增产能已陆续进入成熟运行区间，市场更关心的并非单次政策表态，而是可能 真正影响实物流向的措施；然而截至年底，供给端并未出现足以扭转格局的变化，使得价格重心仍由需求主 导。 需求端边际增量有限持续压制上方空间，年中新能源强势反内卷浪潮以及出口稳定性波动均在一定程度上引 领了波段性调整。镍元素过剩的局面长期延续也受制于于需求端无法寻求新的突破；新能源领域在固态电池 尚未市场化之前，磷酸铁锂不 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the given content. The report mainly provides a comprehensive set of data on the lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets, including price, volume, and inventory data. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - The closing price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract was 123,520 yuan/ton, down 1,200 yuan (-0.96%) daily but up 17,360 yuan (16.35%) weekly. The trading volume was 924,823 lots, down 24,183 lots (-2.55%) daily and 89,093 lots (-8.79%) weekly, and the open interest was 607,187 lots, down 40,179 lots (-6.21%) daily and 65,524 lots (-9.74%) weekly [3]. - The closing price of the weighted - index contract was 123,776 yuan/ton, down 926 yuan (-0.74%) daily but up 17,683 yuan (16.67%) weekly. The trading volume was 1,532,681 lots, up 190,899 lots (14.23%) daily and 221,433 lots (16.89%) weekly, and the open interest was 1,072,674 lots, down 2,555 lots (-0.24%) daily but up 6,443 lots (0.60%) weekly [3]. - For different contract spreads, e.g., LC2601 - LC2605 was - 1,980 yuan/ton, with daily and weekly changes of - 20 yuan (1.02%) and - 260 yuan (15.12%) respectively [3]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 17,101 lots, unchanged daily but up 1,465 lots (9.37%) weekly [3]. 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium ore market, the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 3,265 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (1.71%) daily; lithium spodumene (3 - 4%) was 6,405 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan (0.87%) daily; and lithium spodumene (5 - 5.5%) was 10,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan (0.86%) daily [18]. - In the lithium salt market, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 102,250 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.44%) daily; battery - grade lithium carbonate was 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (3.35%) daily; and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide was 88,430 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan (4.00%) daily [18]. - Regarding price spreads, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 2,650 yuan/ton, unchanged daily but up 50 yuan (1.92%) weekly; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 10,620 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-0.93%) daily and 950 yuan (-8.21%) weekly [22]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands for the LC2601 contract varied, e.g., Shengxin Lithium Energy was - 1,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; Tianqi Lithium was - 1,700 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [30]. - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 17,101 lots, unchanged from the previous day. Some warehouses had no change in receipts, while Yichun Yinli decreased by 300 lots, and Shanghai Guochu decreased by 13 lots [32]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O:2.5%) showed certain trends over time, as presented in the graph [34]. - The production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods also had corresponding trends over the period from December 24 to October 25 [34]. - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, were also presented in graphical form, showing their trends over time [36][38].