南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年11月19日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 锂矿端，本月到港锂精矿数量预计偏多，可缓解市场锂矿端的紧张格局；供给方面，盐湖产能释放将持续为 锂盐市场补充供给，而"枧下窝复产速度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规 模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端当前表现强劲，磷酸铁锂、三元材料、六氟磷酸锂等核心电池材料价格持 续上行，直观反映出市场对碳酸锂的需求韧性；从历史经验来看，临近12月时，下游动力电芯排产会出现季 节性环比减少情况，当前市场核心焦点同时聚焦于储能电芯排产能否弥补动力电芯排产的下滑，具体需根据 排产情况判断。假设，若整体下游排产环比减量有限，则仍符合市场预期；但若减量超预期，则可能引发市 场波动，削弱市场对短期需求的信心，进而导致碳酸锂价格震荡承压。 . 此外，11月底仓单集中注销情况亦需重点关注：若仓单数量出现大幅减少，则很有可能引发市场对持仓量和 仓单数量的炒作，进而对碳酸锂 ...

南华原油风险管理日报 2025年11月19日 美国柴油期货连1 source： 彭博,南华研究 美分/加仑 美国柴油期货 连1 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 200 300 400 500 欧柴裂解价差和布油及ARA库存 source： 彭博,南华研究 美元/桶 美元/桶 千吨 布伦特原油期货价格连1 欧洲柴油对布伦特原油裂解连一(右轴) ARA柴油库存(右2轴) 23/12 24/06 24/12 25/06 50 100 20 40 60 2000 3000 原油内外盘套利 | | 跟踪指标 | 单位 | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-12 | 2025-11-05 | 2025-10-20 | 周涨幅 | 月涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Brent M+2 | 美元/桶 | 63.85 | 62.45 | 63.24 | 60.88 | 2.24% | 4.9% | | | SC M+3 | 元/桶 | 461.50 | 462.20 | 465.90 | 439.20 | ...

南华原木产业风险管理日报 ——现货下跌，带动盘面走弱 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 联系邮箱：songjipeng@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月19日 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 780-830 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， | lg2601 卖出 | | 25% | 810-820 | | 理 | 下跌 | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].

国债期货日报 2025/11/19 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周三期债低开后快速下探，此后低位震荡，品种全线收跌。资金面缓解，DR001在回落至1.42%附近。公开 市场逆回购3105亿，净投放1150亿。 重要资讯： 1.财政部5年、7年国债加权中标收益率分别为1.5610%、1.6720%，边际中标收益率分别为1.5907%、 1.6985%，全场倍数分别为3.95、4.86。 2.贝森特：特朗普将在圣诞节前决定美联储新主席人选。 3.日媒：中国已向日本通报暂停进口日本水产品。 行情研判： 今日 A股反弹，债市受到一定影响。资金面边际转松，一级市场国债加权中标利率明显低于二级市场，发行 情况不错，但二级市场不为所动。目前股市、资金面、新债发行均不是影响市场的关键因素，短期市场缺乏 有力驱动。在货币政策缺乏信号的情况下，短期市场难以打破震荡格局，中期在基本面支持下仍有一定上涨 空间。操作上，中期多单继续持有。 | | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-18 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-19 ...

南华宏观专题 —— 美国2026年中期选举的"驴象之争"（下篇） 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月19日 主要观点 综合来看，2026年中期选举对特朗普及共和党而言，本质上构成一场压力叠加的艰难防御战。从历史维 度来看，作为执政党，共和党天然面临美国中期选举中"执政党大概率失利"的历史惯性制约，这一长期形 成的选举魔咒为其选情埋下潜在隐患。从现实环境分析，特朗普个人的民调表现持续承压，其在一系列关键 政策议题上的争议性立场进一步加剧了选民分化，为共和党的选举动员蒙上阴影。从结构性因素考量，马斯 克"美国党"的潜在入局可能打破传统两党竞争格局，分流部分核心选票，而民主党在堕胎权等社会议题上 已被验证的强大选民动员能力，将持续对共和党形成针对性制衡。基于上述挑战，除非未来一年内出现足以 显著提振共和党支持率的重大利好事件（如美国经济实现超预期繁荣、特朗普政府成功处置重大外交危机 等），否则共和党丧失众议院控制权的概率相对较高。而参议院的选举竞争因受具体席位防御分布的影响， 将呈现更为焦灼的态势， ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注美国就业数据公布 【市场资讯】1）李强会见俄罗斯总统普京。2）美国 10 月 18 日当周首次申请失业救济人 数 23.2 万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非农"ADP 周度就业数据：截 至 11 月 1 日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少 2500 人。3）沙特王储七年来 首次访美给特朗普派"大礼"，确认对美国投资增至 1 万亿美元；美国务卿称将发放沙特芯 片出口许可；特朗普会晤前称将批准向沙特出售 F-35 战机。4）特朗普自称已选定美联储 主席人选，美财长称人选缩减至五个，包括现任联储理事沃勒和鲍曼、前理事沃什、白宫 经济顾问哈塞特、贝莱德高管里德。5）白宫审查新规：拟对美国公民海外加密资产征税。 6）美财政部报告：9 月海外投资者持有美债规模 9.25 万亿美元、逼近最高纪录，日本美 债持仓连增九个月创逾三年新高，英国持仓九个月来首降。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美国政府停摆落幕，后续需重点关注经济数据发布节奏及其所反 映的停摆对实际经济的冲击程度。同时，上周美联储人事变动引发市场聚焦。亚特兰大联 储主席即将退休，鸽派候选人有望接任；下任美联储主席人选悬念待 ...

南华商品指数：所有版块均下跌，贵金属板块领跌 王怡琳 南华商品指数市场数据 | 用于同 的 HD 1日 300 11 200 300 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 啊 | Sharpe | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | 96 | ARR | An. Vol | Batio | Points | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2528.48 | 2541.86 | -13.38 | -0.53% | -2.02% | 11.60% | -0.17 | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1523. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force. The near - term contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - term contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the positive spread logic [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and with the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Therefore, the inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal and oil mills remains high, and it is considered weak. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on supply - side yield adjustments and demand - side Chinese purchases. The domestic market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Near - term contracts are affected by seasonal de - stocking, and far - term contracts are pressured by Brazilian supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will have a weak supply - demand situation in Q4. There are negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations [2]. - **Proximal Trading Logic**: Currently, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills is high, and the oil mill crushing volume has slightly increased. The demand is limited, and the warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal is about to decline, making the near - term narrative dominant [6]. - **Distal Trading Expectations**: The cost of far - month soybeans is high, and import profits are falling, indicating limited far - month purchases. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and the supply gap is expected to narrow. Rapeseed meal supply may improve, and demand is expected to weaken. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting is progressing well, and future harvest pressure will affect domestic meal prices [17]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: The market will be in a range - bound state. The M2601 contract will fluctuate between 2800 - 3200 [25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options; hold the previously sold call options for rapeseed meal 2601; for non - holders, avoid excessive short - chasing after a Monday low - opening, and consider high - selling and low - buying or positive spread strategies [25]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For spread strategies, reduce positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads. For hedging arbitrage strategies, narrow the spread of soybean and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, and that of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750 [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures; feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [28]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [29]. - **Spreads**: Information on the spreads between different contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, is presented [30]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given [31]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The USDA's November report shows a lower US soybean yield and production than previous forecasts. Argentina's soybean planting progress is behind schedule, and the NOPA's October report shows an increase in soybean meal production [33][34]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and its October exports are higher than last year. The USDA has not resumed the weekly crop growth report due to the government shutdown [35]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [35]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazil's Secex weekly report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [42] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the external market, first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The rapeseed meal futures continued to decline due to previous China - Canada negotiations. Key profitable seats in soybean and rapeseed meal reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the market sentiment for soybean meal turned bullish. The 1 - 5 spreads of both soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The basis of both soybean and rapeseed meal declined, and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowed [39][40][44]. - **External Market**: After the USDA report, the prices of both domestic and external markets declined. Then, with the news of Sino - US soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded, and the domestic market followed. The net long positions of CBOT soybeans returned above the zero - axis [56][60]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profits in US soybean production areas are weakening due to rising costs, while the monthly pressing volume remains high. The pressing profits in Brazilian and Argentine production areas are also weakening, and the pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are rising due to falling prices [62]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - After Argentina opened the export window in September, the domestic soybean meal price declined, but the decline was limited due to the lack of negative feedback from domestic purchases. Recently, although the market has rebounded, the pressing profits have not improved. The near - term domestic supply pressure and profit support limit the downward space, while the far - term market may decline after the collapse of Brazilian premium prices. The import of rapeseed has shown pressing profits, but subsequent purchases are expected to be cautious due to margin factors [67]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the US soybean production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The demand for crushing will continue to grow, while the export will be weak. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may recover. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the government shutdown, and attention should be paid to the November balance sheet [71]. - Globally, in the 2025/26 soybean balance sheet, the beginning inventory and production are expected to decline, the crushing volume will decrease, the export volume will slightly increase, and the ending inventory will decline [75]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The import of soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, and the supply will enter a seasonal de - stocking phase. The import of rapeseed will remain low [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean crushing volume will remain high, and the consumption of soybean meal will have limited growth [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the fourth quarter and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal inventory will also decline and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].

南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 11000-13500 | 12.64% | 21.34% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | | 库存管 理 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2601 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | 担心库存减值，但期货盘面没有合适价位入场，卖出看涨期权 | LH2601-C-1300 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 担心库存减值，又不想放弃后市可能出现猪价大涨的机会，买入虚值 ...