南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年08月20日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 强压力位：90000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 60% | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 40% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购 ...

油料产业风险管理日报 2025/08/20 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 靳晚冬（期货从业证号：F03118199） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油料价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕：2800-3300 | 10.2% | 7.8% | | 菜粕：2450-2750 | 12.7% | 7.2% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 油料套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 贸易商库存 | 蛋白库存偏高，担心粕类价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆粕期货来锁定利 | M260 | 卖出 | 25% | 3300-340 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - 8 - 9月受韩国纯苯装置检修影响，我国进口端纯苯供应预计下降，国内供需双增，8 - 9月纯苯供需格局有所好转，但隐性库存高企且终端需求不佳，短期基本面改善有限，需观察后续传统需求旺季是否带来需求增量 [3] - 苯乙烯近端价格低，下游工厂抄底意愿增强，原料补库基本结束，后续出口端有需求增量，8 - 9月苯乙烯供应过剩程度减轻 [3] - 当前苯乙烯绝对价格处于近几年历史低位且旺季预期无法证伪，短期单边谨慎做空，品种间可关注苯乙烯大装置落地时间，考虑逢高做缩纯苯苯乙烯价差 [3] - 今日受原料端供应缩量消息影响，午后化工板块整体偏强运行 [3] 3. Content Summaries by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for pure benzene is 5800 - 6400 yuan/ton, and for styrene is 7000 - 7600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility of styrene is 29.40%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 85.8% [3] - **Hedging Strategies for Styrene** - **Inventory Management**: When finished - product inventory is high and worried about price decline, short 25% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7350 - 7400 yuan/ton and sell 50% of call options (EB2510C7500) at 75 - 90 to lock in profits and reduce costs [3] - **Procurement Management**: When procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of styrene futures (EB2510) at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton and sell 75% of put options (EB2510P7100) at 90 - 110 to lock in procurement costs [3] 3.2 Core Contradictions - For pure benzene, supply from imports is expected to decline due to South Korean plant maintenance, but high hidden inventory and poor terminal demand limit short - term improvement in fundamentals [3] - For styrene, downstream restocking is mostly completed, and there is expected demand growth in exports, reducing the supply surplus in August - September [3] 3.3利多解读 - Recent downstream projects of pure benzene have been put into production, improving the supply - demand pattern [6] - As of August 18, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 1.37% compared to the previous period, with visible inventory gradually decreasing [6] - There are many rumors of styrene exports, with expected demand growth in the export market [6] - The return of multiple maintenance devices in the EPS and PS industries, especially EPS, has led to a significant increase in the operating rate and demand for styrene [6] - South Korean petrochemical companies will cut naphtha cracking capacity by up to 3.7 million tons annually [6] 3.4利空解读 - New styrene production capacity is starting to show, with two large - scale styrene plants in Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical to be put into operation in September and October, ensuring sufficient supply [7] - As of August 18, 2025, the port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu increased by 1.27 million tons (8.53%) compared to the previous period [7] - The production schedule of three major white - goods in late July shows poor production plans, leading to a pessimistic outlook for styrene terminal consumption in the third quarter [7] 3.5 Basis and Spread Data - **Basis Changes**: The basis of pure benzene and styrene shows different degrees of daily changes, with styrene basis generally decreasing [8] - **Spread Changes**: The spreads within the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, including spot - paper goods spreads and styrene - pure benzene spreads, also show certain daily changes [9] 3.6 Industrial Chain Price Data - The prices of various products in the pure benzene - styrene industrial chain, such as crude oil, naphtha, ethylene, pure benzene, and styrene, show different daily and weekly changes [9][10] - The profits of different products in the industrial chain, including pure benzene production profit, styrene integration profit, and downstream product profits, also vary [9][10]

集装箱运输市场日报 —— MSK部分新航次现舱报价略有上调 2025/8/20 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1450~1550 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格先震荡略偏下行，后有所回升。截至收盘，EC各月合约价格涨 跌互现。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510合约多头减仓150手至27 ...

| | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 800-840 | 16.28% | 67.4% | source： 南华研究 南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月20日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 820-840 | | 理 | 下跌 | | 弥补企业的生产成本 | | | | | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | 空 | 为了 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current upward driver in the market mainly comes from the reduction of overseas supply of hardwood pulp, but this factor has basically been priced in. Port inventories are high and de - stocking is not smooth, with weak spot market transactions. Downstream demand is mainly for essential purchases, and paper mills' production profits are low, with a possibility of a lackluster peak season. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp continues to decline, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction price changes of hardwood pulp in the future. The strategy is to operate within a range, focusing on the support at the previous low, and lightly testing long positions near the previous low, with a stop - loss if it breaks through [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 58.0% [2]. - **Hedging Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high softwood pulp inventories worried about price drops, they can short pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For papermaking enterprises with low inventories looking to purchase based on orders, they can buy pulp futures (sp2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [2]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract closed at 5178 yuan/ton (-98). In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5200 yuan/ton (-100), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-50). Chilean Arauco notified August prices, with a 50% reduction in supply for softwood pulp Yinxing at 720 US dollars/ton, hardwood pulp Mingxing at 520 US dollars/ton, and natural pulp Jinxing at 590 US dollars/ton. The spot market trading sentiment was poor, and downstream demand from paper mills remained weak [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Futures Contracts**: On August 20, 2025, SP2509 was at 5096 yuan/ton (-100), SP2511 at 5136 yuan/ton (-42), and sp2601 at 5380 yuan/ton (-40) [8]. - **Domestic Spot Prices**: Prices of various types of pulp such as softwood and hardwood pulp showed different degrees of decline. For example, the price of Shandong Russian Needle decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 5200 yuan/ton, and the price of Shandong Jinyu decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 4150 yuan/ton [8]. - **Domestic Finished Paper Average Prices**: The prices of some finished papers such as white cardboard and offset paper decreased. White cardboard decreased by 2.29% to 4260 yuan/ton, and offset paper decreased by 2.92% to 5533.33 yuan/ton [8].

聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4200-4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | 聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——原料消息推动乙二醇冲高收涨 2025/08/20 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心乙二醇价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失， ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/20 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2511、SM | 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润 ...

国债期货日报 2025年8月20日 债市再创新低 行情研判： 央行今日继续大额投放，维持资金面稳定，但债市仍对照股市运行。A股今日低开，债市一度延续昨日的弱反 弹之势，但随着午后大盘发力创出新高，债市大幅走弱。短期交易情绪仍旧较弱，市场筑底成功需看到债市 与股市脱敏。近期交易难度较大，思路上不做空，谨慎的投资者暂时观望，激进欲抄底者小仓介入，拉开买 入间隔。 | | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-19 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-08-20 | 2025-08-19 | 今日涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.322 | 102.328 | -0.006 | TS合约持仓(手） | 94194 | 97849 | -3655 | | TF2509 | 105.45 | 105.535 | -0.085 | TF合约持仓(手） | 170809 | 172925 | -2116 | | T2509 | 107.935 | 108.05 | -0.115 | T合约持仓(手） | 227058 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月18日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 情绪反扑，但量能继续收窄 市场回顾 今日股指缩量上涨，中小盘走势偏强，不过大小盘差距收窄。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落1801亿元。期 指方面，各品种均放量上涨。 重要资讯 1、美国财长：美中就经贸问题进行了"非常良好的对话"，当前工作开展顺利。 2、约70分钟！阅兵活动将首次展示部分陆海空基战略重器、高超精打、无人和反无人装备。 source： wind,南华研究 股指日报现货市场观察 | 名称 | 数值 | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | 1.04 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | 0.89 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 2.35 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 24082.34 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | -1801.35 | source： wind,南华研究 两市融资买入额/两市成交额 source： 同花顺,南华研究 % 两融交易额占A股交易额比重 24/04 24/08 24/12 25/04 6 8 10 12 核心观点 隔夜美股大跌叠加昨日股市回调，今日 ...