南华期货油脂产业周报 ——春节在即资金避险离场，等待节后机会 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月10日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。虽然马来进入减产季，但库存当前仍处于七年高位，1月去 库预期目前兑现，产地压力预计进一步减轻；印尼2026年依然持续B40计划，B50目前看来实施难度较大，棕 榈油生物燃料需求端扩张有限；但一季度东南亚斋月公共假期及印度采购支撑产地报价，季节性减产期间产 地价格预计下方空间有限。 2、美国生物柴油政策最新消息称将维持现有提案，即对2026年的掺混要求达到56.1亿加仑，同时取消进 口原料惩罚限制，利好全球油脂市场，及加大拿菜籽，最终结果在3月有望公布，关注后续消息。 3、中加和谈目前较乐观，加菜籽进口有望维持15%进口税，叠加全球菜籽丰产，菜油支撑减弱，近期陆 续有菜籽买船信息传出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides various data related to lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 110.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 96.0% [3]. - **Contract Performance**: The main contract's closing price is 137,340 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan (0.25%) daily but down 10,760 yuan (-7.27%) weekly. The trading volume is 295,231 lots, down 10,090 lots (-3.30%) daily and 324,311 lots (-52.35%) weekly. The open interest is 345,989 lots, up 1,918 lots (0.56%) daily but down 9,781 lots (-2.75%) weekly [5]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609) show various daily and weekly changes [5]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME's February 26th lithium hydroxide futures settlement price is 16.65, with different price and volume data for other months. LME lithium hydroxide futures data is also presented, but specific details are not fully described in the text [15]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt Prices**: The latest average prices of various lithium ores and salts are provided, such as lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) at 4,375 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium carbonate at 136,000 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan, 0.37% daily), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide at 123,200 yuan/ton (up 700 yuan, 0.57% daily) [22]. - **Price Seasonality and Trends**: Seasonal and historical price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products are presented through charts, including six - fluoro lithium phosphate, phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, and ternary materials [23][24]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea, and domestic prices are calculated and analyzed, showing daily and weekly changes [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract, the seasonal basis of the Ganglian - lithium carbonate main contract, and the basis of the near - month contract are analyzed through charts and data. The brand - specific basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers are also provided [30][33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 35,537 lots, up 940 lots (2.72%) daily and 2,453 lots (7.41%) weekly. The warehouse receipt data of different warehouses are detailed [5][37]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented through charts [40]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, are shown in the charts [42][43].

金融期货早评 宏观：日英变局推升全球市场风险，自身根基是避险关键 【市场资讯】1）沪深北交易所宣布优化再融资一揽子措施。2）英国政坛突发"黑天鹅"。 因英国前驻美国大使曼德尔森涉爱泼斯坦案，英国首相幕僚长摩根·麦克斯威、公关总监蒂 姆·艾伦先后引咎辞职。苏格兰工党领袖公开呼吁英国首相斯塔默辞职，但英国首相府发言 人表示，斯塔默不会辞职。3）美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特表示，美国就业增长数 据预计将出现放缓，但这并不意味着经济增长势头减弱，而是反映了劳动力市场结构性变 化。1 月非农就业报告将于周三公布，市场预计将新增就业约 7 万人。4）法国央行行长维 勒鲁瓦意外提前至 6 月卸任。5）日本首相高市早苗表示，将推动全国范围内的食品减税 讨论，并明确承诺不会为此发行赤字债券。她强调，将通过非税收入和补贴审查等方式筹 措资金，在确保财政可持续性的前提下迅速实施减税。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2026 年初全球金融市场波动加剧，日本大选落地后的右翼政治走 向，与英国突发的政坛危机形成共振，进一步推升市场不确定性，两国的乱局本质都是内 部经济矛盾向外传导的结果。日本第 51 届众议院选举中，高市早苗带领自民党拿下 ...

南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ——— 巴西收获进展加速，阿根廷关注降水 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月09日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西：2025/26年度大豆收割进度完成16.55%，高于去年同期的9.84%。中西部地区来看，马托格罗索州 大豆收割进度已达已播种面积的39.61%，单周收割进度推进14.64%，远高于去年同期的28.58%，干燥天气 有利于中北部，北部和西部地区收割加速推进，已收获单产超过初期预估；戈亚斯州西南部旱作区的收获正 在加速，但由于降雨过多，收获单产表现不一，部分地区出现籽粒较轻，质量下降的现象；南马托格罗索州 南部部分地区的大豆缺水导致生产潜力下降，其他地区长势仍保持优秀，整体来看97.7%的大豆评级在良好 以上；米纳斯吉拉斯州大豆继续维持良好生长，但近期降雨过多延误了灌溉区的收获。南部地区来看，巴拉 那州西部地区的收获工作正在进行，而高温少雨影响了大豆单产潜力，并加速了大豆成熟；在南里奥格兰德 州，种植期已经延长，在头茬玉米收割后的区域播种作业仍在继续。整体来看已 ...

南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 ——预计巴西2月下旬降水减少 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月9日 本周重要气象提示——巴西 当前巴西中南部处于甘蔗分蘖期，此阶段需要持续的高温环境， 积温越高（有效积温需 5000~6500℃），茎秆伸长速度越快，若此时温度低于 20℃，伸长会大幅放缓；需水增加，持水量 65%~70%，适度湿润利于分蘖苗萌发，干旱会导致分蘖少、有效苗数不足。 巴西中南部当前处于26/27榨季甘蔗生长阶段，受拉尼娜影响，整体降水偏低，近期降水季节性回升，气 温抬升至30℃左右，土壤湿度明显改善。从预报看，预计2月下旬巴西中南部降水量季节性回落，预计土壤湿 度下降。 巴西中南部近期降水改善，短期利于新榨季的甘蔗生长，当前的土壤湿度小幅改善，利于甘蔗的拔节。 预计随着2月上旬降雨量增加，土壤湿度改善将有助于甘蔗伸长。 巴西产区地图预报：降水&土壤湿度 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 巴西产区气象跟踪：中南部近期降水改善 土壤湿度好转 巴西中南部甘蔗产 ...

南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——降雨分布不均匀，马来半岛南部依然面临干旱困扰 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月9日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，直 到2026年1月底依然维持，厄尔尼诺指数截至25年12月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象持 续，但由于强度持续偏弱，东南亚整体降雨并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨稍有恢复，主要集中在印尼的大部分地区及马来东部。马来半岛零星降雨， 且多在北部地区。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，3月及4月目前来看缺乏好转可能，不过沙巴和沙捞越地 区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰，产量方面整体来看应该幅度有限；印尼本周大部分 地区降雨恢复，但廖内及西卡里曼丹地区土壤湿度递减，如后续降雨无改善，在3、4月可能也有干旱风险。 4、短期降雨不多，暂无暴雨等灾害性天气困扰，持续关注土壤 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction in the egg market last week was the intense game between the strong reality of pre - holiday stocking and the pessimistic expectation of the post - holiday off - season, leading to severe "futures - spot divergence." As stocking ended and spot prices fell, the market's dominant logic shifted from "reality" to "expectation" [1] - The near - end trading logic is that after the pre - holiday stocking ends, demand decreases, and the market trades the post - holiday off - season. Also, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment [3][4] - The far - end trading logic includes increased farmers' willingness to cull old chickens as spot prices decline, market expectations of improved demand driven by festival stocking in the second and third quarters, and the impact of accelerated chick replenishment on egg production in 4 - 5 months due to rising chick prices [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The pre - holiday strong demand for stocking and the post - holiday pessimistic demand expectation led to "futures - spot divergence." Spot prices remained firm due to short - term demand, while futures contracts were deeply discounted. The end of stocking and the decline in spot prices marked the start of the resolution of this contradiction [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Judgment**: The pre - holiday stocking demand has ended, and the market is trading the post - holiday demand off - season [10] - **Price Range**: It will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10] - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter the market with a light long position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profit when it reaches around 3100 [10] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Egg Price Range Prediction**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 15.35% and the historical percentile of the current volatility (3 - year) at 31.95% [11] - **Risk Management Strategy for Egg Enterprises**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract codes, trading directions, and recommended ratios provided [13] 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: As of the end of January, the inventory days in the production and circulation links were at a relatively low level in the same period of history, providing room for price increases [14] - **Negative Information**: In February, market demand is gradually weakening as food processing enterprises and schools are on holiday. Egg supply is still relatively abundant, and the egg price is expected to decline by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan/jin. The concentrated procurement of food enterprises, e - commerce, and traders is basically completed, and the market's purchasing enthusiasm has decreased [14] 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information - Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3002 yuan/500KG, and the closing price was 2904 yuan/500KG, a decrease of 3.26%. The position was 149,000 lots, a decrease of 51,367 lots compared with last week [15] 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The egg calendar spread generally shows a contango structure [18] - **Basis Structure**: After the end of stocking demand, the decline in egg spot prices is greater than that in futures prices, leading to a narrowing of the basis [20] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the egg - laying hen farming profit is gradually turning into a loss due to price decline, and farmers' willingness to cull chickens is increasing. This week's farming profit decreased compared with last week. Feed prices remained stable, corn prices fluctuated at a high level, and the farming cost remained the same as last week [24] 3.5 This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Egg - Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.288 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while that of reserve and to - be - slaughtered laying hens decreased. The egg - laying rate remained the same as last month [27] - **Chick Situation**: In January, the chick sales volume increased slightly. The total sales volume of commercial chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information was about 43.22 million, a month - on - month increase of 9.16% [30] - **Chicken Culling Situation**: There are differences in the chicken culling data between Zhuochuang and Ganglian. Zhuochuang's monthly chicken culling decreased, while Ganglian's chicken culling volume has been increasing this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [33] 3.5.2 Consumption Situation - This week, the egg sales volume in the main sales areas decreased compared with last week, and the egg arrival volume in the Guangdong wholesale market increased [36] 3.5.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the production and circulation links have completed inventory replenishment, with the available inventory days being 1.44 days and 1.77 days respectively [38]

橡胶与商品指数走势对比 橡胶与原油及石化指数走势 source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 南华工业品指数 南华橡胶指数(右轴) 南华商品指数(右2轴) 点 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 3500 4000 4500 5000 150 175 200 225 250 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 RU主力收盘价 INE原油主力收盘价(右轴) 南华石油化工指数(右2元轴/桶) 24/06 24/12 25/06 25/12 10000 12500 15000 17500 20000 400 500 600 700 800 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 . 南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——节前基本面驱动有限，随情绪区间波动为主 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月9日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 目前橡胶基本面支撑与压力并存。上游原料进入低产季，库存与进口偏多，下游长假开 ...

南华期货生猪产业周报 ——节前备货即将结束 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月09日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周生猪市场陷入典型的"节前困境"，其核心矛盾在于：长期产能去化迟缓的背景下，短期供给的集中释放 与"旺季不旺"的终端需求发生激烈碰撞，导致猪价持续探底并击穿行业成本线。具体来看，节前养殖端出于资 金回笼与计划完成压力，推动大体重猪源及二次育肥猪集中上市，供给压力凸显；而终端消费受节前备货带 动的回暖力度有限，无法消化供应增量，市场呈现"供需双弱、供大于求"的格局。这一矛盾更因高企的出栏均 重与积压的二次育肥"活体库存"被进一步加剧，意味着供应压力已形成延续至节后淡季的预期。从根本上说， 当前疲弱态势源于行业产能去化进程缓慢，能繁母猪存栏居于高位，致使市场缺乏反转根基。值得注意的 是，2026年中央一号文件已将生猪产能调控升级为"综合调控"，标志着政策层面主动化解过剩产能的决心， 这将成为影响中长期格局的关键变量。 白条肉宰后均重季节性 source： 南华研究 千克 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

南华期货甲醇产业周报 ——空仓过节 2026/2/8 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 甲醇最近行情仍然跟随地缘与有色，基本面最大的变化在于上周三伊朗ZPC装置回来一套(40%负荷).05 合约在上周三夜盘增仓5万余手，单边绝对价格并没有什么变化，产业定价更多体现在5-9反套上(伊朗装置提 前归来对05的压力大于03)。随着美伊谈判的恢复与有色贵金属的下跌，甲醇主力合约下跌。从交易角度看， 单边参与难度较大，一方面定价权基本不在产业内，另一方面交易节奏也极快在关注地缘的基础上也需要关 注有色等盘面的变化。从前两次地缘缓和(2318-2183,2394-2243)的结果看，甲醇主力合约的价格重心在不断 上行。此外临近春节山东甲醛等下游需求降负但联弘与阳煤等mto维持开车状态，山东整体需求还可以，随着 内地上游排库不断进行(上周内地去库5.58w)，内地节前还算健康。2400的甲醇或许很贵，但2200的甲醇也还 行，毕竟1月发运再超预期基数也还是低，05合约面临着下游投产，多头预期不到证伪的阶段。综上临近 ...