Financial Futures Core View - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, providing funds for the federal government until January 30, 2026, easing the government shutdown deadlock. If the US government resumes normal operations as expected and the core economic data is weak, the support for the US dollar may weaken, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.14 this week [3]. - China's import and export data in October declined, but there's no need to worry excessively as it was affected by short - term factors. The export growth rate in the fourth quarter may decline, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [3]. - The bond market is in a short - term shock situation, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [4]. Market Conditions - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 at 16:30, down 32 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1178 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0866, down 10 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - On Tuesday, the bond futures opened higher,冲高 in the morning, then fell back, and maintained a narrow - range shock in the afternoon. The DR001 rose to 1.51% [4]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are running at a high level in the short term. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2/ounce, up 0.27%; the SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, up 2.67%. The market is concerned about the release of US data [5]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The US government shutdown is expected to end, and the market believes the probability of a December interest rate cut has increased, boosting copper prices. The Comex copper closed at $5.07/pound, up 0.08% [9]. - Aluminum: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices recently. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10][11]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are in a high - level narrow - range shock. The smelting end is short of ore, and the TC in November has dropped significantly. It is expected to be strong in the short term [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the pressure on the fundamentals and the spot market is prominent. The price of nickel ore may be strong in the short term, and the price of nickel iron has been continuously adjusted [13][14]. - Tin: Bulls entered the market at night, and the Shanghai tin broke through upwards. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [15][16]. - Lead: The lead price is in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply is tight, but the import window is open, and it is expected to gradually return to balance [18][20]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock. The short - term kinetic energy is weak, and the long - term is still under pressure [26][28]. - LPG: The cost has risen, and the domestic LPG market is in a strong pattern. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand of the PDH end has increased [28][29]. - PTA - PX: Affected by the "anti - involution" rumor, the PTA price has rebounded from a low level. The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA is in an oversupply situation [30][33]. - MEG - bottle chips: The ethylene glycol is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the demand is stable. The long - term is still in a weak situation [33][34]. - PP: The PP market is in a bottom - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has improved slightly during the "Double 11" period [36][37]. - PE: The PE market is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited [38][40]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are still falling. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the de - stocking pressure is large [41][42]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The rubber price is in a pressure - bearing shock and moving up. The downstream demand has certain support, but the inventory pressure is large [43]. - Urea: The export quota has increased, and the short - term price is supported. The industry is expected to maintain a high daily output level in November [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The soda ash is under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation. The glass is in a low - level game, and the caustic soda production is gradually recovering, with increasing market pressure [46][49]. - Pulp and offset paper: The pulp and offset paper futures prices are in a high - level shock. The supply of pulp is expected to decrease in the short term, and the cost of offset paper is expected to rise [49][50]. - Propylene: The propylene price is in a rebound. The supply is still loose, and the demand is affected by the PP market [50][52]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The policy may affect the long - term supply. The short - term is still based on the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be supported during the peak season [53]. - Oilseeds: The market is waiting for the USDA report. The import of soybeans is mainly from Brazil, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is high. The rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand [53][54]. - Oils: The price of palm oil is expected to gradually recover. The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the supply of rapeseed oil is still a concern [55]. - Soybean No.1: The soybean No.1 is in a high - level consolidation [55]. - Corn and starch: The corn and starch prices are rising. The supply of corn is sufficient, but the selling pressure has been released, and the demand is increasing [55][57]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a shock. The new cotton output is high, and the downstream demand is average [57][58]. - Sugar: The sugar price is waiting for the Brazilian production data. The Brazilian sugar export in October increased, and the production in the second half of October is expected to increase [58][59]. - Eggs: The futures price of eggs is falling, and the market expectation is difficult to be falsified [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention should be paid to whether the ending stocks in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range is expected to move up slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the implementation of tariffs, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. After China's decision to resume group tours to Canada, there is an additional expectation of negotiations, and considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal areas and oil mills remains high, limiting the upside potential for price rebounds. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus is on the export demand of US soybeans and the de-stocking logic after tariff implementation. The external market is pricing in the expected export of 12 million tons of US soybeans to China, and attention is on the USDA report's ending stocks. The domestic market is pricing in the de-stocking logic, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. The potential for demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The oscillation range for M2601 is 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower bounds. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced or liquidated; a covered call strategy can be considered in combination with options, selling a 3300 call option as a covered call for M2601, and holding existing covered call positions; sell a 2600 call option for rapeseed meal 2601 [16]. 3.1.3 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: The current basis can be considered in combination with the oscillation range, using accumulating options to reduce basis risk. The near-term basis is expected to strengthen. - **Spread Strategy**: Positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads can be reduced. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is high (650 - 700) [17]. 3.1.4 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Chicago soybean futures need a catalyst to rise further. US agricultural exporters are optimistic about the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. As of November 6, 61% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop had been sown, up from 47% a week ago but below last year's 67%. The USDA will release its November supply and demand report on November 14 [24]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean sowing has started, but as of November 5, only 4.4% of the expected area had been sown, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October were significantly higher than last year. Argentina's agricultural areas have experienced above - average rainfall, which may offset the risk of reduced rainfall caused by La Nina [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazil Secex weekly report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report and Conab Brazil grain production survey. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural positions report and USDA monthly supply and demand report. Special attention should be paid to the USDA supply and demand report released at 1 am Beijing time on November 15 [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the increase in external market costs this week, with long - positions adding and the price rebounding. The rapeseed meal futures adjusted this week after a significant rebound following previous China - Canada negotiations. - **Capital Flows**: In the soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets, foreign institutional short - positions were closed and long - positions were added, while institutional investors reduced long - positions and added short - positions, indicating limited upside potential for the rebound. The soybean meal option PCR indicator shows that the market's bullish sentiment has returned. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures spreads generally show a B - structure in the first half of the year and a C - structure in the second half, mainly related to seasonal supply patterns. This week, the M1 - 5 spread first rose and then fell, related to the rebound of M01, and the RM1 - 5 spread weakened due to the decline of RM01. - **Basis Structure**: The soybean meal basis declined this week due to the increase in the futures price, with the spot price rising less than the futures. The rapeseed meal basis also declined for the same reason. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, mainly due to the larger decline in rapeseed meal prices [30][31][34][40]. 3.3.2 External Market - **External Market Trends**: The external and domestic markets rebounded after a correction. After the expectation of China - US negotiations and news of soybean purchases, US soybean prices rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed the cost increase. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - position funds [45][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - In the soybean production areas, the crushing profit in the US has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, while the monthly crushing volume has remained at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has rebounded due to the decline in rapeseed prices [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - China mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing, with a relatively small volume of direct imports of meal. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the profit under the current 13% tariff on US soybeans. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and domestic soybean crushing is expected to decline seasonally. Although rapeseed imports offer crushing profits, due to import margin factors, subsequent ship bookings are expected to remain cautious [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, in terms of production, after a significant downward revision of the planted area in August, the area is expected to marginally increase, and after the yield was adjusted to the highest level in history, it is expected to marginally decline in subsequent months. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. In terms of demand, the crushing volume will continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above - normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to the balance sheet released by the government in November [61]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the opening of US soybean imports, domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the lack of effective import profit, but will start to recover in the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed imports will continue to remain at a low level [63]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory carried over from the third quarter, combined with fourth - quarter arrivals, is expected to keep the crushing volume at a high level. After high - level pre - stocking of domestic soybean meal, subsequent consumption is unlikely to increase significantly [66]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as soybean imports decrease, and is expected to stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The raw material inventory of domestic soybean meal will also decrease, and the crushing volume will decline. The soybean meal inventory is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [68].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, and recommends holding medium - term long positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On Tuesday, bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning, then declined, and maintained a narrow - range oscillation in the afternoon. Only TS slightly declined, while the rest slightly rose [1]. - The money market remained tight, with DR001 rising to 1.51%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [1]. Important News - The State Council General Office issued "Several Measures to Further Promote Private Investment". - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that it would create better development conditions for business entities [2]. Market Judgment - Today's news was light. The A - share market closed lower, and the bond market did not benefit significantly. - The money market remained tight. Despite increased open - market injections, money market rates continued to rise. The short - end yields of cash bonds rose slightly, while the medium - and long - end were less affected. - The market is not worried about liquidity but lacks trading hotspots. It is difficult to change the oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to monetary and credit data tomorrow [2]. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 11 Price | 2025 - 11 - 10 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 11 - 11 Position (Hand) | 2025 - 11 - 10 Position (Hand) | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.46 | 102.466 | - 0.006 | 85266 | 85232 | 34 | | TF2512 | 105.935 | 105.93 | 0.005 | 166730 | 172702 | - 5972 | | T2512 | 108.495 | 108.485 | 0.01 | 288671 | 291294 | - 2623 | | TL2512 | 116.34 | 116.3 | 0.04 | 183726 | 184847 | - 1121 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0211 | - 0.0267 | 0.0056 | TS Main Transaction (Hand) | 28422 | 24929 | 3493 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0235 | - 0.025 | 0.0015 | TF Main Transaction (Hand) | 48332 | 49109 | - 777 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0202 | 0.0205 | - 0.0003 | T Main Transaction (Hand) | 52193 | 58830 | - 6637 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1186 | 0.1987 | - 0.0801 | TL Main Transaction (Hand) | 73470 | 96097 | - 22627 | [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall cotton harvest in Xinjiang is nearing completion. New - cotton costs are fixed at around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. The increasing new - season supply will pressure cotton prices. Downstream demand is tepid, but there's a rigid restocking demand from yarn mills. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate, with attention on hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0543 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0346 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,700 - 13,800 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF601C13800) at 250 - 300 with a 75% ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low inventory and planning to purchase, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF601P13400) at 150 - 200 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some southern Xinjiang areas have lower - than - expected yields and lower lint percentage, supporting the purchase price. Yarn mills have a rigid restocking demand, and positive market sentiment is driven by Sino - US trade talks [4][6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, leading to high hedging pressure. As of the end of October, domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories reached 3818,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons. In October 2025, textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [6][7]. 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Information - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01, 05, and 09 closed at 13,560, 13,560, and 13,735 respectively, all down 20 with a - 0.15% change. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,855, down 10 (- 0.05%), while cotton yarn 05 and 09 had significant drops [8]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1282, up 18; the flower - yarn spread was 6280, up 15; the internal - external cotton spread was 1872, up 100 [8]. - **Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B decreased slightly, while FCI Index S, M, and L had relatively large drops [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The potential end of the US government shutdown boosted market sentiment, causing stock indices to open higher today. However, they trended downward after the opening and fluctuated until the close, with the total trading volume of the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan again. The basis of stock index futures declined, and the open interest decreased, indicating a stronger willingness among long - position holders to exit. With a relatively quiet information environment, on one hand, the long - term high - level oscillation has increased the willingness of funds to take profits, leading to a correction pressure on the index; on the other hand, policy expectations provide relatively strong support at the lower level of the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week to further verify the recovery of the fundamentals [4] Market Review - Stock indices closed lower today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.91%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.868 billion yuan. Stock index futures all declined with reduced trading volume [2] Important Information - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding market access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees - There is a glimmer of hope in the US government shutdown crisis! The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill on Sunday to fund the government until next January [3] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.84 | 11.04 | 0.3615 | 26.3184 | -0.5129 | | IH | -0.58 | 5.0142 | 0.4232 | 9.4744 | -0.1967 | | IC | -0.79 | 11.2484 | -1.0252 | 24.1256 | -0.8077 | | IM | -0.30 | 18.6082 | -0.8391 | 35.4095 | -0.0582 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.03 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.11 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 19935.86 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | -1808.68 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the final US energy policy to boost the oil market and further news on Indonesia's B50. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Due to palm oil entering the production - reduction season and the early arrival of Ramadan in Southeast Asia next year, there may be an opportunity to go long on the far - month P05. At the same time, the short - term support for rapeseed oil and soybean oil is more obvious, and it is advisable to continue to be bullish on the widening of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [1][2]. - The future oil market will mainly focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation volume, the supply - demand balance game in palm oil producing areas, and the smooth arrival of US soybeans and the progress of China - Canada relations [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the current oil market lies in the supply - demand balance of global oils, with the core drivers mainly in the foreign market. Key contradictions include the digestion of inventory pressure in palm oil producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. - **Price Range**: P2601 fluctuates in the range of [8400 - 9000], Y2601 in the range of [8000 - 8500], and OI in the range of [9300 - 10000]. Pay short - term attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil. - **Technical Analysis**: Unilaterally, one can choose to go long on the P05 contract on dips; for arbitrage, one can go long on the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads. - **Basis Strategy**: Currently, the basis should be regarded from the perspective of short - term weak shock. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Considering the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in the first quarter of next year and Indonesia's B50 plan, palm oil has upward potential, and the P1 - 5 spread can be considered from the perspective of reverse spread. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: The rapeseed - palm spread and the soybean - palm spread will widen [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10000, and palm oil is 8400 - 9000. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to their inventory and price expectations [27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils decreased week - on - week. The October MPOB report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports [32]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysian palm oil inventory and production increased in October. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased from November 1 - 10 compared with the same period last month. As of November 7, the national palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week [33]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and there was almost no transaction in rapeseed oil [34]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [42]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment turned bearish, the downward space was limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the upcoming production - reduction season in producing areas. Attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing opportunity of palm oil [41]. - **Capital Movement**: The positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil foreign and retail investors slightly increased short positions, and long - position confidence was insufficient. The position change of soybean oil was relatively small, and foreign short - position holders slightly reduced positions. Rapeseed oil long - position holders left the market due to the expectation of eased China - Canada relations [41]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to grind the bottom this week, and the basis remained weakly due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [43]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market was differentiated. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. Palm oil did not have a clear structure, with the spot being the weakest and the 05 contract the strongest, showing a contango structure, but the 09 contract was relatively weak, and the 05 and 09 contracts showed a back structure [43]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads strengthened, while the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly. This was mainly because there was a lot of negative information in the palm oil market, rapeseed oil lacked clear information, and soybean oil was relatively strong due to the optimistic expectation of China - US trade talks [51]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was mainly in shock this week. The negative factors in palm oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted, and the oil and oilseed sector maintained a shock operation. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and rapeseed oil was stronger than palm oil due to the lack of expectation of eased China - Canada relations [53]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The production cost of bio - fuels decreased slightly due to the decline in palm oil prices, and the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained low due to sufficient global soybean supply [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the cost price decreased slightly due to the decline in origin quotes, but the profit changed little, and there were almost no new purchase orders under the negative basis [60]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory slightly exceeded market expectations, but the negative impact of increased production was offset by a significant increase in exports. The La Nina climate has appeared in the producing areas, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. After October, it will enter the seasonal production - reduction season, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress in the producing areas [64]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: Under the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is extremely low, and it is expected that there will be little possibility of new near - month purchase orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is not expected to increase [66]. - **Soybean Oil**: The current arrival of soybeans is still high, but the supply pressure will gradually weaken from December as the arrival of soybeans decreases [66]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, and the downstream demand is limited. However, the inventory will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [66]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, and the demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils, the market boost after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bullish trend in the lithium carbonate market is clear, but considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant against the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [5]. - The core contradiction lies in the supply - demand mismatch. The arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight situation at the lithium ore end. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. The demand is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production schedule in November remaining highly prosperous [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 59.0% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: For the lithium carbonate futures, the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the main contract and weighted contract have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the closing price of the main contract is 86,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 700 yuan (-0.80%) and a weekly increase of 7,980 yuan (10.16%) [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts such as LC2601 - LC2603, LC2601 - LC2605, and LC2603 - LC2605 also show daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 28,099 lots, with a daily increase of 608 lots (2.21%) and a weekly increase of 1,609 lots (6.07%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotations**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminite have daily and weekly increases. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (1.83%) and a weekly increase of 105 yuan (4.96%) [24]. - **Carbonate/Hydroxide Lithium Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different grades of lithium hydroxide, have daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,550 yuan (1.97%) and a weekly increase of 1,400 yuan (1.78%) [27]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and the difference between CIF prices in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide also show changes [31]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes have different daily price changes [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the basis quotations of different brands show different values and changes [35][37]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 28,099 lots, with an increase of 608 lots compared to yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [40]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented in the form of time - series charts [42][44]. Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about cost increases, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - P - 73000 (20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio). For those worried about inventory impairment after procurement, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises worried about profit reduction due to price drops during sales, strategies include selling corresponding futures contracts (20% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio), and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory worried about inventory depreciation, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2].

南华期货工业硅&多晶硅企业风险管理日报 2025年11月11日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 支撑位：8000 | 21.1% | 63.8% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 | 为防止价格下跌 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | 导致销售利润减 | | | | | | | | 少，企业需在采 | | | | | | | 润 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on the natural rubber industry in the medium to long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are performing well, and the downstream operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive manufacturers' rigid - demand purchases, providing effective support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is significant, leading to average downstream trading willingness, limited domestic demand growth, and existing export obstacles. In the medium to long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully reached its peak, and the supply pressure will increase. The stable demand expectation requires continuous macro - level benefits and actual implementation. The export growth, although resilient, still faces risks and challenges such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - In the future, rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. In the short term, the valuation may increase with market fluctuations. The report suggests different trading strategies based on price trends and market conditions [1][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are good, and the operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive rigid - demand purchases, providing support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is large, domestic demand growth is limited, and export obstacles exist. The market expects an increase in natural rubber supply, and the abundant supply and weak cost of synthetic rubber drag down the overall valuation of the rubber system [1] - In the medium to long term, the global production capacity cycle has not peaked, and the supply pressure will increase. Stable demand requires continuous macro - level benefits. The export growth faces risks from international situations and trade barriers [2] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14900 - 15300, and for NR2511 is 12000 - 12400. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with short - term sentiment possibly warming up, but the pressure from the weak supply - demand expectation still exists [14] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the short - term, take a bullish view with a focus on upper pressure levels. Consider hedging strategies such as combining protective options or using a long - volatility strategy. Hold the RU spot - futures positive arbitrage and pay attention to warehouse receipt changes. For NR, pay attention to high - level reverse arbitrage opportunities. For the 01 combination of the depth - difference spread, adopt a strategy of expanding the spread when the price is low [15] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - grade rubber NR is 11900 - 12700 [18] - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory management, adopt strategies such as shorting rubber futures, buying out - of - the - money put options, and selling call options. For procurement management, consider buying rubber far - month futures, buying out - of - the - money call options, and selling put options [18] 3.2 Important Information and Focus Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: In October, the CPI and core CPI showed positive changes. The auto consumption index was high, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks and new - energy passenger vehicles increased. There were favorable weather conditions and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations [20][21] - **Negative Information**: The EU launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese tires. The rubber production in Thailand is expected to increase, and China's rubber imports increased. There were declines in the European replacement tire market and some negative macro - economic factors [22][24] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus Points - Pay attention to rainfall in rubber - producing areas and its impact on raw material supply, changes in dry - rubber imports and exports and social inventory, downstream tire export data and operating rate, and important macro - economic data and events [26] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices stabilized and rebounded after falling to the lower limit of the range. RU01 stabilized around 15000, and NR01 returned to around 12000. RU positions increased steadily, and NR positions rebounded slightly [28] - **Capital Movement**: In terms of profitable positions on the disk, the long and short positions of RU were stable, while the short positions of NR made more profits with a decrease in positions [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, spot prices generally declined, with relatively large declines in whole - milk, Indian - standard, and Vietnamese No. 10 standard rubber [35] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Changes**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, and the near - term contracts strengthened relatively. The 11 - 01 spread continued positive arbitrage. NR prices fell, and the back structure deepened [48][49] - **Month - spread Structure**: The Tocom RSS3 price decline led to a weakening of near - month contracts, and the C structure deepened. The Singapore TRES20 rubber price slightly increased, and the structure was flat [56] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese smoked - sheet rubber futures narrowed, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber oscillated and narrowed [59] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the rubber market sentiment has fluctuated greatly, with a neutral sentiment last week. The downstream tire demand sentiment slightly improved. Currently, the RU warehouse receipts are low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio continues to rise, while the NR virtual - to - physical ratio has decreased compared to the previous period [64][65] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - rubber Spot Spread**: Last week, the depth - difference spread steadily widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk rubber was further repaired. The supply pressure of standard products may increase in the future, and attention should be paid to domestic weather and downstream production and sales [66] - **Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread**: Last week, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased, while the operating rates of butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber recovered. The supply pressure of synthetic rubber was strong, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber remained high [70] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rain in Hainan and southern Thailand affected raw material prices, with prices remaining firm in Hainan and southern Thailand, and weakening in Yunnan. The water - cup price difference in Thailand rebounded [72] - **Processing Profit**: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber was similar to last week, and the profit of TSR9710 slightly declined. The import profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was flat, while the profits of Thai standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased and then slightly recovered [81][83] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Main Producing Countries**: The natural rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, and India shows seasonal characteristics [86] - **Import Situation**: In October, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [87] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Main Producing Countries**: In September, except for India, the total demand in main producing countries decreased month - on - month. The consumption in Malaysia and Indonesia in September was higher than the same period, but the cumulative volume remained low [90] - **Tire Production and Sales**: Last week, the operating rate of most tire enterprises returned to normal. The sales of all - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends, and tire exports were resilient but faced challenges such as EU anti - subsidy investigations [93] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable this year, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [98] - **Supporting Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic passenger car sales have been strong, and commercial vehicle sales have also increased year - on - year. Automobile exports have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [100][102] - **Supporting Demand - Heavy - duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy - duty trucks has increased this year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery's domestic sales and exports is 11.24%. In the long term, the growth of new demand for trucks may be limited [107] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable this year, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [109] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite a decline in auto sales. European passenger car production and sales are stable, while commercial vehicle production has decreased significantly. The production and export of Japanese and South Korean automobiles show different trends [111] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: In October, the operating rate of domestic conveyor belts decreased to a five - year low, while the operating rate of rubber hoses was relatively good year - on - year [127] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by weather, RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased due to stable rubber imports and high downstream wait - and - see sentiment [130] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [132]