南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/08/14 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13400强支撑 | 10.94% | 0.75% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2511 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 20% | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入 | | | 采购管理 未来有采购计划，担心原料有上涨风险 | 为防止未来生猪价格上涨，依据采购计划买入生猪远期合约，锁定采购成本 | 生猪远月合约 | 买入 | 依据采 ...

南华贵金属日报:美PPI超预期 降息预期回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月15日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场明显调整，主要因晚间美PPI大超预期，重燃通胀担忧并削弱美联储降息预期，特别是关税问 题在通胀上显现问题，美指和美债收益率明显回升，其影响力也因其大超预期而大于CPI。周边资产看，原油 回升，比特币下跌，美股震荡，南华有色金属指数震荡调整。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3382.3美元/盎 司，-0.76%；美白银2509合约收报于38.035美元/盎司，-1.47%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.7元/克， +0.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9286元/千克，+0.77%。美国7月PPI同比+3.3%，选高于前值+2.3%，预 期+2.5%，为今年2月以来最高水平；美国7月PPI环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅，预期0.2%，前值 0%；核心PPI同比+3.7%，预期3%，前值 2.6%，为2月以来最高水平；核心PPI环比+0.9%，预期0.2%，前 值0%，为2022年4月以来最大涨幅。 【本 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non - ferrous metals sector. Recently, the macro - environment has limited impact on tin prices. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the production cut at the Bisie tin mine has exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the latest prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一 are 267,420 yuan/ton,沪锡连三 is 267,820 yuan/ton,伦锡3M is 33,435 dollars/ton (down 0.79% daily), and the沪伦比 is 8.02 (up 0.12% daily) [6]. 3.2 Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory Data - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 269,500 yuan/ton (up 0.86% weekly), 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton (down 25% weekly), 40% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton (up 0.9% weekly), 60% tin concentrate is 261,500 yuan/ton (up 0.89% weekly), etc. [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 7,422 tons (down 0.11% daily), in Guangdong are 4,881 tons (down 0.49% daily), in Shanghai are 1,670 tons (up 0.97% daily), and the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons (up 0.85% daily) [20].

金融期货早评 宏观：关注 7 月经济数据的发布 【市场资讯】1）美国通胀"爆表"，7 月 PPI 环比飙升至 0.9%，创三年新高，同比升至 3.3%。 2）贝森特"澄清"：并非呼吁降息，只是讨论中性利率模型。美联储票委穆萨莱姆：现在判 断下月是否支持降息还太早，给降息 50 基点泼冷水。美联储票委古尔斯比给 9 月降息预 期泼冷水：不要仓促。美联储戴利：9 月大幅降息没必要。无惧超预期 PPI，美联储主席两 位新晋候选人：支持大幅降息。3）贝森特：日本央行明显"行动太慢"，应该加息。4）美 联储逆回购工具使用量创 2021 年以来新低。5）"特普会"倒计时，特朗普预计失败概率 25%，美临时豁免部分制裁，白宫威胁手中工具很多。 【核心逻辑】昨晚公布的美国 PPI（整体和核心均强于预期），显示通胀压力依然高企，短 线利好美元指数。符合我们此前当前美国通胀黏性并未根除，不排除降息空间可能远小于 市场想象的可能的判断。与此同时，短期仍充满变数，8 月非农与 CPI、杰克逊霍尔年会， 都很有可能重塑当前市场叙事。因此，在主线明朗前，短期美元指数或围绕 98 附近震荡， 美元兑人民币即期汇率在本周大概率仍难站稳 7. ...

聚丙烯风险管理日报 2025年8月14日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚丙烯 | 7000-7200 | 8.48% | 6.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | 为了防止存货跌价损 | | 向 | | 间 | | | | | 失，可以根据企业的库 存情况，做空聚丙烯期 | PP2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7150-7200 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心聚丙烯价 | 多 | 货来锁定利润，弥补企 | | | | | | 理 | 格下跌 | | 业的生产成本 | | | ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 2025年8月14日 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 7200-7400 | 9.94% | 11.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7350-740 0 | | 理 | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].

纯苯-苯乙烯风险管理日报 2025/8/14 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纯苯 | 5800-6400 | / | / | | 苯乙烯 | 7000-7600 | 29.40% | 85.8% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格下 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7300-735 0 | ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/08/14 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1100-1500 | 32.68% | 63.87% | | 焦炭 | 1600-1950 | 25.37% | 49.13% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方向 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原料采购 | 焦化企业有焦煤补库计划，但尚未确定采购价格，担心焦煤价格上涨影响利润 | 空 | 做多焦煤2601合约 JM2601 | 买入 | （1150，1200） | source： 南华研究 黑色仓单日报 | | 单位 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-13 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- ...

镍&不锈钢：日内回调前期涨幅 8月14日风险管理日报 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 沪镍风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 策略等级（满分5） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风险 | NI主力合约 | 卖出 | 60% | 2 | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管理 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 | 涨 | 根据生产计划买入沪镍远期合约，盘面提前采购锁定生产成 本 卖出看跌期权 | 远月NI合约 | 买入 依据采购计划 | | 3 1 | | | | | 场内/场外期 | 卖出 依据采购计划 | | | | | | | 权 | | | | | | | 买入虚值看涨期权 | ...