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股指期货:沪深300创新高
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 09:12
股指期货日报 2025年9月25日 王映(投资咨询证号:Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪深300创新高 市场回顾 今日股指走势涨跌不一,以沪深300指数为例,收盘上涨0.60%。从资金面来看,两市成交额上涨443.06亿 元。期指方面,IF放量上涨,IC、IH缩量上涨,IM缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1、香港金管局总裁余伟文在香港固定收益及货币论坛上致欢迎词时预告,将于今天发布固定收益和货币路线 图。 2、9月25日,国家医保局正式发布《关于开展医保基金管理突出问题专项整治"百日行动"的通知》,决定 自即日起至2025年12月31日,在全国范围内开展为期百日的医保基金专项整治行动,重点打击倒卖医保回流 药、违规超量开药、骗取生育津贴等违法违规使用医保基金行为。 核心观点 今日股市走势震荡,大盘指数展现强势,沪深300指数创新高,反映市场乐观情绪仍在。今日上涨股票较为集 中,个股涨跌数比仅0.39,且虽然与昨日类似,领涨行业仍聚焦TMT,但主要为权重股在涨。短期仍维持结 构性拉升,并未出现增量系统性利好或利空,所以我们维持节前行情平稳过渡的预期,观望为主。 策略推荐 观望为主 ...
南华期货2025年度外汇四季度展望:路阻且长,波动暗流或涌关键位
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 06:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate returning to the "6 era" within the year is still low, but it has increased compared to the previous expectation. The operating range is likely to be between 6.90 - 7.25, with the core fluctuation range more concentrated between 7.00 - 7.20. The overall appreciation space is relatively limited, but the depreciation momentum is accumulating [1]. - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 2025 may have potential conditions for upward - fluctuating, but the actual increase depends on the central bank's policy attitude and regulatory signals, as well as the verification of the Chinese economy [2][19]. - The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and actual impact scale should not be linearly extrapolated. The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will probably be in the cycle combination of "loose money and weak broad credit", which provides a core operating basis for "slowing down the appreciation rhythm" [3]. - The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and weak, with an operating range of 95 - 102 [6]. - The potential "US dollar settlement wave" has increased the probability of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate falling to the "6 era" within the year, although its formation is still restricted by multiple factors [7][90]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - **Strategy Suggestions** - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Given the expected increase in the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate in Q4 compared to Q3 but still in a historically low range, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options [1]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. If the exchange rate briefly falls to 6.90 - 7.00, an additional 20% - 30% can be locked. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [1]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled [1]. 3.2 Market Conditions and Core Concerns 3.2.1 Market Volatility Conditions - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate maintained a low - volatility operation in Q3 2025. Whether it can increase volatility in Q4 depends on factors such as macro - narrative changes, market trading volume, and the central bank's policy [10][19]. - **Macro - Narrative Perspective**: The shift from low - to high - volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is related to major macro - narrative changes, following a cycle of "narrative turning - divergence intensifying - volatility rising - cognition converging - volatility converging - new narrative starting". The next potential macro - narrative that may drive volatility is the "Fed's monetary policy shift (substantial and high - rhythm interest rate cuts)" [20]. - **Market Driving Force Perspective**: The inquiry trading volume of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is positively correlated with its implied volatility. An increase in trading volume may indicate an increase in volatility. Currently, the three indicators (offshore - onshore spread, risk - reversal option, and RMB non - deliverable forward) show relatively stable market expectations for the RMB's appreciation and depreciation. If the trading volume remains above $35 billion, the market may accumulate upward volatility momentum [22][31]. - **Central Bank's Policy Perspective**: The central bank's exchange - rate management in Q4 focuses on the "dynamic balance between enhancing flexibility and preventing risks". It will adopt a "discretionary" approach, adjusting policy tools according to market dynamics. The RMB exchange rate is difficult to form a smooth appreciation or depreciation trend [34][38]. 3.2.2 Stock - Exchange Linkage - The stock market and the foreign - exchange market are related through capital flow and market expectation. The recent "residential deposit migration" to the stock market has provided incremental funds for the A - share market, which is driven by the decline in bank deposit interest rates and the increase in the attractiveness of equity assets [43][49]. - However, the "residential deposit/ total market value" chart has three core flaws and cannot be used as direct evidence of "residential deposit migration". The potential capital inflow can provide phased support for the RMB, but its sustainability and scale depend on the long - term investment attractiveness of the stock market and the domestic economic fundamentals [53][55]. - The Q4 2025 operating environment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is likely to be in the cycle of "loose money supply and weak credit expansion", with the appreciation rhythm slowing down. The probability of the RMB forming a trend - based appreciation against the US dollar within the year is still low, but the probability of the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" has increased [63][64]. 3.2.3 External Weak US Dollar Environment - The Fed's interest - rate cut amplitude and rhythm depend on the evolution path of the US economic fundamentals. The September 2025 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut and the weak non - farm employment data have made the issue of "whether the US economy is facing a recession" a key concern [66]. - **Economic Level**: The current US employment market has slowed down but not stalled. Inflation pressure and real - estate market risks restrict the Fed from implementing substantial interest - rate cuts within the year [71][72]. - **Policy Level**: Politically, the short - term policy is likely to remain on the "gradual adjustment" track. If the Fed's independence is interfered with, it may lead to more and larger - scale interest - rate cuts. Overall, the US dollar index is expected to operate in the range of 95 - 102 [73][76]. 3.2.4 US Dollar Settlement Wave - The formation of the US dollar settlement wave has a solid capital foundation, but it also depends on the effective cooperation of enterprise settlement willingness. The factors affecting the RMB exchange rate returning to the "6 era" include the central bank's exchange - rate intermediate - price control, the attractiveness of the domestic equity market, the trend of the US dollar index, and the behavior of enterprises in foreign - exchange transactions [7][85]. 3.3 Q4 Exchange - Rate Trend Judgment - **Benchmark Scenario**: In the context of the Fed's cautious interest - rate cut and the weak recovery of the domestic economy, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7.00 - 7.20, with the depreciation momentum gradually accumulating. There are uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery process and the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm [91]. - **Upward Risk**: Factors such as the unexpected rebound of US inflation, strong US economic data, a change in global risk preference, and uncertainties in the domestic economic recovery may cause the RMB to face short - term depreciation pressure and may briefly break through the 7.20 mark [91][92]. - **Downward Risk**: If the US inflation continues to fall, the domestic economic recovery exceeds expectations, and domestic policies are actively implemented, the RMB may appreciate, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate may fall below 7.0 [92]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestions - **Arbitrage Strategy**: In a low - volatility environment, a short straddle option strategy can be adopted, selling both out - of - the - money call and put options. Attention can also be paid to volatility surface arbitrage opportunities, such as constructing a position of "selling near - month straddle combinations + buying far - month straddle combinations" when the near - month implied volatility is significantly higher than the far - month [94]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **For Purchasing Foreign Exchange**: Prioritize forward exchange locking. Start at the low - middle level (7.00 - 7.10) of the core exchange - rate range, and lock 60% - 80% of the positions in batches. For those with non - fixed payment cycles, a combination of "forward exchange locking + optional transaction" can be used [95]. - **For Settling Foreign Exchange**: Anchor at the upper limit of the range. When the exchange rate reaches 7.18 - 7.20, settle 30% - 40% of the US dollars. If it breaks through 7.20, an additional 20% - 30% can be settled, leaving 20% - 30% for subsequent fluctuations [96]. - **Common Risk Warnings** - Avoid excessive speculation and adhere to the "risk - neutral" principle, with the hedging scale matching the actual trade volume [97]. - Dynamically track policies and the market. Adjust hedging positions in time if the USD/CNY spot exchange rate breaks through 7.25 or falls below 7.0 [99]. - Select appropriate tools. Small and medium - sized enterprises should give priority to simple tools such as forwards and options, while large enterprises can combine futures and other tools to optimize strategies but need to be equipped with a professional foreign - exchange management team [99].
南华金属日报:高位震荡,轻仓过节-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 06:16
南华金属日报:高位震荡 轻仓过节 夏莹莹(投资咨询证号:Z0016569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月25日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格整体高位震荡调整。随着国内国庆假期临近,以及前期贵金属涨幅较大,建议前多减仓过 节,节中将公布重磅美非农与ISM PMI数据。周边美指与10Y美债收益率走高,比特币回升,美股下跌,原油 则延续上涨。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3768.5美元/盎司,-1.24%;美白银2512合约收报于44.115美 元/盎司,-1.11%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收860元/克,+1.03%;SHFE白银2512合约收10397元/千克, +0.83%。消息面,贝森特质疑鲍威尔"退缩",呼吁年底前累计降息100–150基点,并透露已面试11位美 联储主席候选人。美联储27年票委戴利表示支持上周降息25个基点,认为经济风险已变,需进一步政策调整 以稳物价、托就业,现在就该行动。美联储25年票委古尔斯比则反对连续激进降息,认为就业只是温和放 缓、远未衰退;担心提前降息会削弱抗通胀立场,后续会议或不愿再降。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美 ...
金融期货早评-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:55
【核心逻辑】7-8 月作为三季度经济运行的核心观测期,其披露的数据系统呈现出当前宏 观经济的复杂态势:一方面,经济增速边际放缓的压力已明确显现,地产拖累、消费支撑 弱化、投资增速下行等信号共同构成了这一态势的核心底色;另一方面,政策端的逆周期 调节已精准发力,供需两侧的托底政策正按序落地实施;更深层次看,数据亦揭示了金融 市场与宏观基本面的结构性互动。股票市场在经济增速趋缓背景下保持强势,是行业业绩 改善、全球风险偏好回升与政策持续利好共振的结果;商品市场则受即期需求约束呈现震 荡格局。海外方面,9 月美联储议息会议重启降息周期。尽管点阵图显示年内仍有 50 个基 点的降息空间,但鲍威尔反复强调数据依赖,未来政策路径将紧密锚定就业与通胀两大核 心指标。美国 9 月 Markit 制造业、服务业 PMI 回落,基本符合市场预期,后续需重点关注 美国 PCE 数据和当周初请失业金人数。 人民币汇率:关注当周初请失业金人数情况 金融期货早评 宏观:关注美国经济数据情况 【市场资讯】1)中国国家主席在联合国气候变化峰会发表视频致辞,宣布中国新一轮国家 自主贡献,到 2035 年温室气体净排放量比峰值下降 7%-10% ...
南华期货玉米、淀粉产业链日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:07
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - New - season supply pressure drives down corn prices. After the new - grain offer opened high, it has been falling, and there is still downward pressure on prices after large - scale listing [1] - Currently, the amount of corn on the market is limited, the decline of spot prices is small. The spot market shows the characteristics of continuous decline of damp grain and firm dry grain, and the near - month contracts of the futures market are resistant to decline [1] - The current basis is at a relatively high level, and there is a risk of decline as new grain is listed in large quantities [1] - CBOT corn is consolidating at a low level, digesting the pressure of the expected bumper harvest and waiting for further guidance from the supply side [1] 3. Summaries according to Related Catalogues 3.1 Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 | 2025 - 09 - 24 | Today's Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2158 | 2164 | 6 | 0.28% | | Corn 01 | 2134 | 2136 | 2 | 0.09% | | Corn 03 | 2148 | 2146 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 05 | 2204 | 2202 | - 2 | - 0.09% | | Corn 07 | 2220 | 2215 | - 5 | - 0.23% | | Corn 09 | 2229 | 2229 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2447 | 2469 | 22 | 0.90% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2452 | 2462 | 10 | 0.41% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2457 | 2464 | 7 | 0.28% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2539 | 2544 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2544 | 2549 | 5 | 0.20% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2572 | 2591 | 19 | 0.74% | | Wheat Average Price | 2442 | 2444 | 2 | 0.08% | [2] 3.2利多解读 (Positive Interpretations) - The market is looking forward to the later purchase and reserve policy of the China National Grain Reserves Corporation, but it takes time and there is uncertainty [3] - In August, the import of corn remained at a low level, and the substitution pressure was small [3] - The supply of old - season grain sources is tight, and it takes time for new - season grain to supplement. Shandong deep - processing enterprises generally raised prices to promote purchases [3] 3.3利空解读 (Negative Interpretations) - Corn is in the new - season harvest and listing period, and the temporary oversupply of supply puts pressure on prices [3] - The purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China have been lowered, transportation is difficult, and local enterprises mainly lower prices [3] 3.4 Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main - continuous Basis | Corn | Price & Basis | Today's Change | Corn Starch | Price & Basis | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2300 | 0 | Shandong | 2780 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2440 | 0 | Jilin | 2570 | 0 | | Harbin | 2170 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2520 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - continuous Basis | 136 | - 6 | Shandong Main - continuous Basis | 311 | - 22 | [12] 3.5 US Corn Prices and Import Profits | | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - continuous | 424 | - 1.75 | - 0.41% | | | COBT Soybean Main - continuous | 1008.5 | - 4 | - 0.4% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - continuous | 519.5 | - 1.25 | - 0.24% | | | US Gulf Duty - paid Price | 2146.62 | 13.18 | 0.62% | 293.38 | | US West Duty - paid Price | 2004.48 | 13.24 | 0.66% | 435.52 | [24]
南华豆一产业风险管理日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 02:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New grain seasonal supply is abundant, putting pressure on spot prices later [4]. - New grain listing has increased slightly, and the mainstream price of raw grain has dropped to 1.85 - 1.88 yuan per catty [4]. - The soybean No. 1 futures continue the rhythm of volume - increasing decline and volume - decreasing rebound, and attention should be paid to the rebound strength [4]. - The resumption of auctions intensifies the market supply pressure, and attention should be paid to the transaction situation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3850 - 4000 yuan per ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.16% and a current volatility historical percentile of 31.4% [3]. 3.2 Risk Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new grains in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2511) with a hedging ratio of 30% and a suggested entry range of 4000 - 4050 (holding) [3]. - When there is a concentrated listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a hedging ratio of 30% and a suggested entry range of 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For those worried about the rise in raw grain prices and the increase in procurement costs, it is recommended to mainly wait for spot procurement in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are recommended, waiting for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.3 Market Situation Analysis 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - There was widespread rainfall in the Heilongjiang production area, delaying the harvesting operation in some areas [4]. - The short - side of the 11 - contract significantly reduced positions, leading to a large - scale rebound in the futures price [4]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - The e - commerce platform of China National Grain Reserves Corporation will organize a special session for the competitive sale of domestic soybeans on September 26, 2025, with a sales volume of 19349 tons. The resumption of auctions increases the pressure on the spot market, and the futures market may have priced in this bearish factor [4]. - On September 24, Liangda.com planned to auction 7330 tons of raw soybeans from Rongtong Company, with a starting price of 3820 - 3930 yuan per ton, and all auctions failed [4]. 3.4 Market Price Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 23 Close Price | 2025 - 09 - 24 Close Price | Daily Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 3878 | 3907 | 29 | 0.75% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 3871 | 3893 | 22 | 0.57% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 3877 | 3894 | 17 | 0.44% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 3920 | 3928 | 8 | 0.20% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 3924 | 3927 | 3 | 0.08% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 3932 | 3934 | 2 | 0.05% | [4]
聚酯产业风险管理日报:宏观情绪触底回暖,EG小幅反弹-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 12:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has bottomed out and warmed up, with EG showing a slight rebound. The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol is limited, and if there are unexpected drivers in the supply side or macro aspects, the upward price will be more elastic. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4150 - 4350, and breakthrough depends on cost and macro drivers. In operation, due to short - term over - decline under sentiment suppression, the price has support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4150 - 4450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.95% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.1%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7000, with a volatility of 10.94% and a percentile of 7.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5000, with a volatility of 9.97% and a percentile of 6.9%. For bottle chips, it is 5500 - 6100, with a volatility of 7.49% and a percentile of 1.2% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4320 - 4420) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy EG2601P4100 put options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options (50 - 80) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4180 - 4250) to lock in procurement costs. Sell EG2601P4100 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 80) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - Ethylene glycol has insufficient fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation target. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation is further pressured. Currently, the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, and it is not recommended to continue shorting before its realization. The supply side has little room for unexpected increases, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity, the short - term downward space is limited, while the upward price has more elasticity if there are unexpected drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based ethylene glycol plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, and the restart time is undetermined, which may lead to additional import reduction in October [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October (unplanned). The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October, and attention should be paid to the production progress [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price data of various polyester products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, toluene, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers on September 24, 2025, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [8][9].
南华镍、不锈钢产业风险管理日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:27
Report Overview - The report is the "South China Nickel & Stainless Steel Industry Risk Management Daily" dated September 24, 2025, by the South China New Energy & Precious Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently in a state of internal oscillation, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. Concerns about the stability of ore supply are increasing, while the cobalt price has upward potential, driving up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices remain firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude before the holiday [3] Key Points by Category Price and Volatility Forecast - The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.88% and a historical percentile of 0.1% [2] Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [2] - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When facing the risk of product price decline and inventory devaluation, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) at a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options at a 50% hedging ratio [3] - **Procurement Management**: For future production procurement needs, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options, and buy out - of - the - money call options, with the hedging ratio based on the procurement plan [3] Market Situation Analysis Core Contradictions - In the nickel market, the Indonesian energy department's sanctions on mining companies have increased concerns about the stability of ore supply. In the new energy sector, the expected extension of the cobalt export ban in Congo may drive up the prices of MHP and nickel salts. Nickel iron prices are firm, and the stainless steel market shows a wait - and - see attitude [3] Positive Factors - Indonesia's APNI plans to revise the HPM formula, shorten the nickel ore quota license period, and the stainless steel has been destocking for several weeks. Also, the Indonesian forestry working group has taken over part of the nickel mining area [5] Negative Factors - High pure nickel inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless steel import tariffs, the implementation of South Korea's anti - dumping duty on Chinese stainless steel plates, weak stainless steel spot transactions [5] Market Data Nickel Disk - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,450 yuan/ton, up 1% from the previous day. The trading volume increased by 103.70% to 107,755 lots, and the open interest increased by 125.11% to 85,526 lots [5] Stainless Steel Disk - The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,895 yuan/ton, with little change. The trading volume decreased by 12.00% to 122,330 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5.80% to 116,704 lots [5] Inventory Data - Domestic nickel social inventory is 41,484 tons, an increase of 429 tons; LME nickel inventory is 230,586 tons, an increase of 132 tons; stainless steel social inventory is 897,200 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 28,652 tons, a decrease of 614.5 tons [6] Industry News - CATL and Antam are promoting the construction of a nickel integrated smelter [7]
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:12
Report Overview - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 24, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - The current core contradictions affecting the ferroalloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disruptions, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the ferroalloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - driven supply reduction and cost support, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and high inventory in some cases [7][8][9] Key Points by Section Ferroalloy Price and Hedging - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.78% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 19.1%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 11.94% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.0% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profit declined in early September, but has since recovered. Production remains at a five - year high, while downstream demand shows no significant improvement, and there may be a "no - peak season" situation [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/degree, and there are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October. Although current manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, short - term disruptions need attention [4] - **Term Structure and Capital Withdrawal**: The term structure of ferroalloys has improved, but the term structure of coking coal has worsened. Ferroalloy positions are decreasing, with silicon ferroalloy's total position at 396,000 lots (down 6% week - on - week) and silicon manganese's at 551,400 lots (down 2.75% week - on - week) [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations and Weak Reality**: There are expectations of supply reduction, but lack of substantial actions, leading to a high risk of price reversals [5] 利多解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces, and an important article in the "Qiushi" magazine may address industry competition issues. Silicon ferroalloy enterprise inventory is 63,400 tons (down 9.3% week - on - week), and total inventory is 151,500 tons (down 0.53% week - on - week) [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: Strict government policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industry restructuring. There are rumors of reduced manganese ore shipments from Gabon in October, which may affect silicon manganese costs [7] 利空解读 - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Silicon ferroalloy enterprises maintain high operating rates, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long term, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about steel demand. Silicon manganese inventory is increasing, with enterprise inventory at 198,900 tons (up 19.24% week - on - week), total inventory at 502,300 tons (up 5.97% week - on - week), and Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon manganese price down 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was - 18, down 100 day - on - day and 68 week - on - week. The spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5480 yuan/ton, up 30 day - on - day and 30 week - on - week [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 24, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 198, down 12 day - on - day and up 62 week - on - week. The spot price in Ningxia was 5680 yuan/ton, down 20 day - on - day and 20 week - on - week [11]
南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250924
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-24 11:06
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Coking Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: September 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies Price Forecast - The monthly price range for coking coal is predicted to be between 1200 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 37.90% and a historical percentile of 73.74% [3] - The monthly price range for coke is predicted to be between 1650 - 1850, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 29.18% and a historical percentile of 62.12% [3] Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Hedging for Coke**: When coke production recovers rapidly, and the spot supply - demand becomes loose, coke enterprises worried about price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1780, 1830) and 50% at (1830 - 1880) [3] - **Procurement Management for Coking Coal**: Due to factors like repeated macro - sentiment, low seasonal coking coal mine开工率, and production - overrun inspections, coking plants worried about price increases can long - buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the entry range of (1200, 1250) and 50% at (1150, 1200) [3] Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes - For various black commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, coke, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese, the report shows their warehouse receipt quantities on September 24, 23, and 17, as well as the daily and weekly changes [4] Market Situation Analysis - Downstream pre - holiday stockpiling improved the coking coal inventory structure, and there was a price - support sentiment at the mine mouth, leading to a stop in the decline and a rebound of coking coal spot prices. The second - round price cut for coke was fully implemented, and the cost of coking coal for furnaces increased, squeezing coking profits. Some coke enterprises tried to raise prices, but it was difficult to implement before the holiday [4] Outlook and Strategy - "Anti - involution" remains the focus in the second half of the year. Market participants' expectations for the future have improved, and the willingness to hold goods has increased. Coal and coke are not considered as short - allocation in the black series. The high supply pressure of steel and high inventory will limit the rebound height of coal and coke prices. The report does not recommend using coking coal as a short - allocation in the black series and suggests paying attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coal and coke [4] Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Pre - holiday seasonal stockpiling by downstream, improved inventory pressure at mines, price - support at the mine mouth, and attempts by some coke enterprises to raise prices; the second - round price cut for coke improved steel profits, and high pig - iron production provided rigid support for coal and coke demand in the short term; "Anti - involution" is the trading focus, and macro - sentiment will affect the market; the Fed's 25BP interest rate cut and expected further cuts support the overall valuation of commodities [4][6] - **Negative Factors**: High social inventory pressure of finished steel products and lower - than - expected peak - season demand limit the rebound space of coal and coke; high average daily customs clearance at the 288 Port and high coal shipping volume indicate strong imported coal supply [4][7] Group 4: Coal and Coke Price Data Futures Price Data - The report provides detailed data on coking coal and coke futures, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, spreads between different contracts, coking profit, and various ratios such as the ore - coke ratio, screw - coke ratio, and carbon - coal ratio, along with their daily and weekly changes [8] Spot Price Data - It shows the spot prices of various coking coal and coke products, including domestic and imported coal, different types of coke, and their daily and weekly changes. It also presents data on import and export profits, coking profits, and the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal [9][10] Group 5: Graphical Data - The report includes multiple graphs showing historical volatility percentages of coking coal and coke, seasonal customs clearance vehicle numbers at the 288 Port, term - structure spread of coking coal and coke, seasonal patterns of futures spreads and basis, warehouse receipt inventory seasonality, import profit seasonality, coking profit seasonality, and ratio seasonality between different types of coal and thermal coal [11][12][13]