1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in the producing areas, the impact of the US biodiesel policy, the progress of China - Canada trade talks, and the overall sufficient supply of domestic oils [1][2]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. The demand is weak, suppressing the upward space of the market, but the tight spot - end sentiment and the positive news of the US bio - fuel policy boost the market. It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a strong trend, and short - selling is not recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support but lacks a trend - driving force. It is necessary to wait for the Ramadan stocking demand in India to boost the price [1]. - **US biodiesel policy**: The latest news is that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - **China - Canada trade**: The China - Canada talks are currently optimistic, and the import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. However, due to Trump's threat to Canada, there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade, and the short - term supply concern remains [2]. - **Domestic oil supply and demand**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: In the short term, there is a rebound trend within the range, and in the medium term, there is still room for palm oil to rise. The price ranges are P2605 [8200 - 9400], Y2605 [7600 - 8300], and OI2605 [8600 - 9500]. Technically, P05 and Y05 are considered to have a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken through, but the short - term upward space is limited. Arbitrage can observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads [17]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The current basis is considered to be in a short - term weak and volatile state. There is no monthly spread strategy for now. The soybean - palm spread is expected to weaken [18]. - **Recent strategy review**: Various past strategies, such as going long on P01, P1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, etc., have different results, including stop - loss, stop - profit, and waiting for opportunities [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price ranges for monthly prediction are: soybean oil 7600 - 8300, rapeseed oil 8600 - 9500, and palm oil 8200 - 9400. The corresponding 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2%, and the historical percentiles (3 - year) are 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% respectively [21]. - **Hedging strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to different scenarios, including short - selling or long - buying soybean oil futures with different hedging ratios [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures and spot prices**: The report provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as some related spreads and basis data [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2 million tons. Argentina is facing drought, which may affect crop yields. Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43% [25][26]. - **Negative news**: The consulting company AgRural raised the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest to 181 million tons. Although the rainfall in Argentina is expected to improve the soil moisture in some areas, local drought will still put pressure on soybeans [27]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of rapeseed oil increased significantly last week, while the trading volumes of soybean oil and palm oil were slightly weaker, with palm oil having the weakest trading volume [27]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and origin weather information [37]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market maintained a strong trend this week. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the US bio - fuel boost and changes in China - Canada trade talks. Palm oil also rose due to lack of precipitation in the origin and capital allocation. Soybean oil continued to rise with the oil sector. It is necessary to pay attention to the US bio - energy policy, origin de - stocking progress, and China - Canada trade development [36]. - **Capital movement**: The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. The key seats of soybean oil slightly increased their long positions, while rapeseed oil and palm oil reduced their short positions. Foreign - funded seats generally reduced short positions and increased long positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment [36]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure with near - term strength and far - term weakness. The P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 spreads fluctuated, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil rose due to the strength of the 05 contract [39]. - **Basis structure**: The main - contract basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. The main - contract basis of soybean and palm oil remained weak, while the main - contract basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of the China - Canada relationship, the main - contract basis of rapeseed oil gradually weakened [44]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: This week, due to the lack of further information, the cross - variety spreads fluctuated mainly. As palm oil entered the production - reduction season and the supply of rapeseed oil increased, the rapeseed - palm spread was expected to weaken [48]. - **Overseas market**: - **Overseas trend**: The overseas market fluctuated mainly this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to the production - reduction season in Malaysia, better - than - expected export, and drought signs in the weather. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to fluctuate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [50]. - **Capital position**: The net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, and the bullish sentiment has improved. Speculative funds have increased their long positions. However, the net short - position ratio of commercial positions such as producers and traders is relatively high, and the industrial hedging pressure is huge, which limits the further upward space of prices [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil - based bio - fuel remained high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based bio - fuel remained at a relatively low level in recent years. As the price of US soybeans rebounds, the BOHO spread is expected to strengthen, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [54]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price is firm, and the domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [56]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, and the export increased by 8.52% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export may promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, and the export is optimistic. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [58]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: In the off - season of demand, the trading volume is difficult to improve. The origin has entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and it is expected that the ship purchases will not increase. It is necessary to wait for the reduction of inventory pressure in the origin [60]. - **Soybean oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [60]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory continues to decrease, and the spot supply is still tight. However, due to the global rapeseed harvest and the recovery of China - Canada trade, the domestic rapeseed oil supply may further increase in the future [60]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lower than the average level. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils is still weak. The market is expected to be dull after the festival [62].

金融期货早评 宏观：美日联手干预汇率 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普威胁将韩国商品的关税提高至 25%，理由是他所称的该国 立法机构未能将两国去年达成的贸易协议编纂成法。2）中国人民银行召开 2026 年宏观审 慎工作会议。3）日本首相高市早苗：如果执政联盟在众议院选举中无法获得多数席位，我 将立即辞职。4）欧盟将于 2027 年 1 月全面禁止进口俄液化天然气，同年 9 月底全面禁止 进口俄管道天然气。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】人民币方面，央行邹澜明确以香港为离岸核心枢纽，通过扩容离 岸资产供给、翻倍香港人民币流动性安排完善金融生态，这一布局适配人民币从贸易结算 向投资储备的国际化升级，既解决外资人民币资产配置需求，也能为 A 股引入长期资金， 对接国内科技产业的估值与发展需求。日元的困境远超汇率层面，纽约联储的询价动作与 日本官员的干预表态虽短期拉动日元反弹，但美日利差、结构性资本外流仍在，叠加首相 高市早苗将汇率与大选绑定的政治风险，反弹缺乏基本面支撑。更关键的是，其削减消费 税的言论引发市场对财政纪律松弛的担忧，直接导致日债长端利率攀升、收益率曲线熊市 走陡，彻底颠覆全球固收市场逻辑，债券从避险工具变为 ...

南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ———巴西产区逐渐收获，阿根廷土墒继续下行 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月26日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西：大豆收割进度已达2.3%，其余作物出苗期 2.3%，营养生长18.3%，开花期17.3%，鼓粒期 53.6%，成熟期 8.1%，整体来看，当前正值主要生长季关键期，尽管近期天气相对偏干，但核心产区中西部 以及南部地区土壤墒情整体良好，保证了创纪录的单产预期。中西部马托格罗索州，收割率已经达到种植面 积的13.88%，较上周增加7.19%。收割率也高于2025年同期的4.38%，以及五年均值的5.61%。降雨减少与 晴朗天气交替出现，有利于全州范围内收割工作的推进，初期收获的单产预期良好；戈亚斯州目前收割主要 在灌溉区开始，尽管频繁降雨有利于作物生长，但受此影响下生长末期自然成熟与收获进度减缓；南马托格 罗索州收割在低洼地区进行，整体优良率85.7%；米纳斯吉拉斯州首批灌溉区开始收割，已收获部分取得了 良好的单产，而其他大部分处于灌浆期的区域作物状况良好。在南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current contradiction in the egg market lies in the intense game between the "strong reality" driven by Spring Festival stocking and the "weak expectation" of post - festival production capacity and demand. The short - term unsustainable stocking affects the long - term restoration of the supply - demand balance [2]. - In the short term, the egg price will show a downward trend as the demand - driving effect weakens during the late stage of pre - festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100 [10]. - In the long term, the improvement of short - term profitability delays the progress of egg - laying hen production capacity reduction. Market expectations are that festival stocking in the second and third quarters will boost demand. The increase in chick prices stimulates farmers' replenishment willingness, which may affect egg production 4 - 5 months later [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradiction - The "strong reality" in the egg spot market is driven by pre - Spring Festival stocking, with fast market sales, low inventory, and rising prices, which improves the profitability of the breeding sector. However, this also leads to concerns about future egg supply as farmers are less willing to cull hens and more willing to replenish chicks [2]. - The near - term trading logic is that pre - festival stocking drives up the spot price of eggs, but as the Spring Festival approaches, food processing plants have basically completed restocking, and subsequent demand is expected to be pessimistic [4]. - The far - term trading logic involves factors such as the delay of production capacity reduction, expected improvement in demand during festivals, and the impact of chick replenishment on future egg production [12]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - **Trend Judgment**: The current stage is the late stage of pre - festival stocking, with weakening demand - driving effect and egg price support. The egg price will show a downward trend in the short term [10]. - **Price Range**: The egg price will fluctuate within the range of 2900 - 3100. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Enter the market with a light position when the price drops to around 2900 and take profits when it reaches around 3100 [10]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategies**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for the basis strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Suggestions - **Egg Price Range Forecast**: The price range of the main contract is predicted to be 2800 - 3400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.35% and a historical percentile of 24.75% over three years [13]. - **Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, including shorting egg futures, selling call options, buying put options, etc., with specific contract selections, trading directions, recommended proportions, and suggested entry intervals [13]. 3.2 Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - **Positive Information**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens continued to decline, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. The increase in the number of old hens slaughtered and the decrease in the number of newly - opened laying hens led to a reduction in egg supply in January. In January, the prices of corn and soybean meal, the main feed raw materials, increased, driving up the feed price. The increase in egg prices far exceeded the increase in costs, resulting in profitable egg - laying hen breeding [14]. - **Negative Information**: In February, as food processing enterprises and schools go on holiday, market demand will gradually weaken. Although the supply of newly - opened laying hens in January may decrease, the high inventory of laying hens is still supported by farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand in the egg market in February. The average egg price is expected to drop by 0.90 - 1.00 yuan per catty [14]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the egg quotes in the sales areas [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation This week, the opening price of the main egg 03 contract was 3072 yuan per 500KG at the beginning of the week and closed at 3046 yuan per 500KG at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.85%. The position was 271,000 contracts, an increase of 7784 contracts compared with last week [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Spread Structure Analysis - **Spread Structure**: The overall egg spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 2 spread shows a back structure, it is a normal seasonal pattern, and the overall structure is contango [18]. - **Basis Structure**: As the number of culled hens increases, the spot market is strong, the 01 basis expands significantly, and the far - month basis also strengthens [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the profit of egg - laying hen breeding is gradually recovering, approaching the cost line. The seasonality is still the lowest in the past five years, and farmers have an incentive to cull hens. This week, the breeding profit remains in a loss state but is about to turn a profit. Feed prices have rebounded, and the breeding cost has increased. If the current breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, farmers' motivation to recover losses will gradually weaken, accelerating the culling of hens [24]. 3.5 This Week's Supply and Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - **Laying Hen Inventory**: In December, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. The proportion of main - producing laying hens increased, while the proportions of reserve laying hens and hens to be slaughtered decreased. The proportion of laying hens over 450 days old decreased to 8.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.04%; the proportion of main - producing laying hens aged 120 - 450 days increased to 79.16%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26%; the proportion of reserve laying hens under 120 days old decreased to 12.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.22%. The egg - laying rate of laying hens remained flat month - on - month [27]. - **Chick Situation**: In December, chick sales increased slightly. The total sales of commercial - generation chicks of 18 representative enterprises monitored by Zhuochuang Information were about 39.59 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10%. The improvement in egg - laying hen breeding profitability, the strong rise in egg and old - hen prices, and the turn to profit in breeding (this week's average weekly egg profit was about 0.15 yuan) boosted farmers' confidence in replenishing chicks. The chick orders of breeding chicken enterprises are generally scheduled until the end of February and early March, and some are scheduled until mid - March [29][32]. - **Culled Hen Situation**: There is a divergence between Zhuochuang and Ganglian data on culled hens. Zhuochuang shows a month - on - month decrease in culled hens, while Ganglian shows a continuous increase in culled hens this month, and the market's divergence on the data is increasing [30]. 3.5.2 Consumption Situation The sales volume of eggs in the main sales areas decreased, and the arrival volume of eggs at the Guangdong wholesale market decreased [33]. 3.5.3 Inventory Situation This week, the inventory in the production and circulation links is still at a low level in recent years, but with the start of restocking, it increased week - on - week by 0.42 days and 0.5 days respectively [35].

南华浩淞白糖期货气象分析报告 ——2月巴西降水量有望季节性回升 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 本周重要气象提示——巴西 当前巴西中南部处于甘蔗分蘖期，此阶段需要持续的高温环境， 积温越高（有效积温需 5000~6500℃），茎秆伸长速度越快，若此时温度低于 20℃，伸长会大幅放缓；需水增加，持水量 65%~70%，适度湿润利于分蘖苗萌发，干旱会导致分蘖少、有效苗数不足。 巴西中南部当前处于26/27榨季甘蔗生长阶段，受拉尼娜影响，整体降水偏低，近期降水偏少，气温回 升，土壤湿度小幅改善，但仍处于历史低位水平。从预报看，预计1月末至2月上旬，巴西中南部降水量季节 性回升，预计土壤湿度将得到改善。 巴西中南部近期降水偏少，处于低位水平，对于新榨季的甘蔗生长造成一定影响，当前的土壤湿度小幅 改善，但仍处于历史低位水平，不利于甘蔗的拔节。预计随着1月末至2月上旬降雨量增加，土壤湿度改善将 有助于甘蔗伸长。 巴西产区地图预报：降水&土壤湿度 source：浩淞风云 南华研究 source：浩淞风 ...

南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——产区降雨稍有好转但整体有限，关注马来半岛干旱情况 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，25年年底南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，南方涛动指数持续正值，拉尼娜现象已经形成，至26年年初，其强度持续偏弱， 东南亚整体降雨并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。南方涛动指数逐渐向0轴回归，拉尼娜或接近 尾声。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨量依旧偏少。马来半岛几乎无降水，东马零星降雨为主，印尼的卡里曼丹岛 降雨量稍多，苏门答腊岛及周边地区降雨也有限。 3、土壤湿度来看，马来半岛南部土壤湿度依然偏干，且进入2月后干旱或进一步扩散，3月甚至整个马来半岛 均呈现干旱态势，沙巴和沙捞越地区降雨量尚可，土壤湿度全国范围较好，暂无干旱困扰；印尼本周卡里曼 丹岛及占碑地区有降雨，但廖内及北苏门答腊地区土壤湿度递减，如2、3月降雨无改善可能也有干旱风险。 ...

1.春节临近备货需求开启但提振力度有限。 2.白毛价差位于低位，压缩屠宰企业利润。 3.标猪价格下跌时有少量二育补栏行为，价格回升后获利了结导致市场供应增加。 南华期货生猪产业周报 ——备货需求开启 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月26日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周生猪市场处于春节前供需博弈中，供应端压力集中释放与需求端承接乏力的矛盾凸显。供应端上，临近 月底，规模场为完成月度出栏计划，出栏节奏明显加快，市场猪源供应宽松。同时，前期部分二次育肥户在 猪价反弹至相对高位后，获利了结意愿增强，选择出栏套现进一步增加了市场的有效供应。需求端上表现相 对疲软，尽管春节日益临近，但今年春节时间偏晚，导致传统腌腊、灌肠及"杀年猪"等季节性需求启动迟缓、 整体放量不及预期。下游终端消费提振不明显，白条猪肉走货速度一般。受此影响，屠宰企业普遍面临亏 损，因此压价收购意愿强烈，且收购积极性不高，行业冻品入库意愿低迷，市场缺乏有效的需求"蓄水池"来消 化过剩供应。 白条肉宰后均重季节性 千克 2022 2023 2024 2025 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Global Fixed - Income Market**: A new logic has emerged where bonds have shifted from traditional safe - havens to risk sources. Fiscal sustainability has become the core anchor for bond pricing, and the new logic is driven by the combination of fiscal, monetary, and inflationary pressures. It is also globally contagious, affecting both developed and emerging markets. The fiscal health of economies and policy games are key considerations for fixed - income investment [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB has a solid foundation for appreciation, supported by domestic export and settlement data. However, the appreciation process will be regulated by the central bank and may be affected by the strength of the US dollar index. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlements, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy [6][7]. - **Equity Index**: The medium - to long - term upward trend of the equity index is supported by policy and liquidity, but the small - and medium - cap indices may experience short - term technical adjustments due to overheating [7]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game between the weak current reality and the uncertain future. There are both positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates and trade protectionism. The future price trend depends on the realization of resumption of navigation [11]. - **Commodities** - **Carbonate Lithium**: Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce positions. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of selling volatility [16]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the upward elasticity is restricted by the polysilicon inventory. Long - term investors can consider a long - position strategy at low prices [18][19]. - **Copper**: The price is in a narrow - range shock. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan, and long - positions built in the range of 90,000 - 95,000 yuan can be held [24]. - **Aluminum and Its Products**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The price may be volatile and slightly stronger, but it is also affected by macro and geopolitical factors [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition. Attention should be paid to supply - side news and inventory changes [29]. - **Tin**: The price may be in a high - level wide - range shock due to geopolitical factors [31]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to be in a narrow - range shock, and selling options to collect premiums is recommended [32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing. Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest [33][35][36]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock, and attention should be paid to position control [47][48]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices have reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state, and short - term corrections can be considered as opportunities to build long - positions [48][49]. - **Paper Pulp and Offset Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see for both paper pulp and offset paper futures [53]. - **LPG**: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [58]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [60]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [62]. - **PP and PE**: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [64][67]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long - positions for the 05 contract, but the price may correct in the short term [70]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price elasticity of soda ash is limited, and glass is in a state of weak supply and demand, with no obvious trend [72][73]. - **Propylene**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [75]. - **Black Commodities** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are in a range - bound shock, with the rebar 2605 contract in the range of 3050 - 3200 yuan and the hot - rolled coil 2605 contract in the range of 3200 - 3350 yuan [76][77]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [83]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Live Pigs**: The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [88]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [90][91]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [93]. - **Eggs**: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner [95]. - **Apples**: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [96]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - **Logs**: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [101]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Macroeconomic and Financial Futures - **Macro**: The probability of Rick Rieder of BlackRock being elected as the Fed Chairman has soared. His policy stance may lead to a further cut in policy rates. Japan's Prime Minister will take measures against abnormal market fluctuations, and the US is affected by a winter storm [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The RMB is supported by domestic data for appreciation, but the process will be regulated by the central bank [3][6]. - **Equity Index**: The previous trading day's index showed a differentiated trend, with large - cap indices weak and small - and medium - cap indices rising. The market may have short - term corrections due to overheating [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded last week, but the short - term may continue to oscillate. Medium - term long - positions can be held, and short - term investors can wait and see [8][9]. Container Shipping to Europe - **Market Review**: The futures contracts showed a differentiated trend, with the near - term contracts relatively stable and the far - term contracts showing different trends. The主力合约 EC2604 slightly declined, and the次主力合约 EC2606 rose [10]. - **Information Summary**: There are positive factors such as the delay of full - scale resumption of navigation and local improvements in macro data, and negative factors like the sharp decline in spot freight rates, the weakening of freight rate indices, and trade protectionism [11]. - **Trading Judgment**: The 02 and 04 contracts' prices decreased year - on - year. If the resumption of navigation cannot be realized, the 06 contract may have some upward space [12][13]. Commodities - **New Energy** - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rose last week, and the market is active. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival and pay attention to selling volatility [15][16]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The prices of both showed certain changes last week. In the short term, the price of industrial silicon is likely to rise, but the polysilicon inventory restricts its upward elasticity [17][19]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals** - **Copper**: The price was in a narrow - range shock last week. The LC spread narrowed, and LME copper warehouse receipts in US warehouses flowed in. It is not recommended to build new positions above 100,000 yuan [21][24]. - **Aluminum and Its Products**: The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy showed different trends. Aluminum is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term and bullish in the long term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be slightly stronger [25][26][27]. - **Zinc**: The price was oscillating strongly. The supply is expected to be relatively loose, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate strongly following the sector [27]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel showed different trends. The supply side is facing disturbances, and the market is in a state of long - short competition [28][29]. - **Tin**: The price was oscillating strongly and reached a new high at night. It is affected by geopolitical factors [30][31]. - **Lead**: The price was oscillating weakly. The supply and demand are both weak, and it is recommended to sell options to collect premiums [32]. - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Oilseeds**: External soybean futures are weakly oscillating, and domestic soybean meal is expected to stop falling in the short term. Rapeseed meal may return to international pricing [33][35]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to remain strong, with palm oil being the strongest. The market is affected by geopolitical factors and bio - fuel policies [36][37]. - **Energy and Oil and Gas** - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil market has a poor fundamental situation, but the Iranian issue provides support at the bottom [39]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is expected to be in a shock state. The 02 and 03 contracts' premium opportunities may be stable trading opportunities [41]. - **Precious Metals** - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices rose last week. In the medium - to long - term, the bull market foundation remains. The price is expected to be in a high - level wide - range shock [44][48]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices reached new highs, driven by geopolitical risks, policy uncertainties, and the weakening of the US dollar. They are in an upward - prone state [48][49]. - **Chemicals** - **Paper Pulp and Offset Paper**: The paper pulp futures price is affected by the spot market and may have limited upward space. The offset paper futures price is affected by cost and supply - side factors. It is recommended to wait and see for both [51][53]. - **LPG**: The short - term price is supported by external cold snaps and geopolitical factors, but the demand side is weakening [54]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices are strongly rising due to concentrated long - positions. However, the high - valuation situation is not suitable for chasing long - positions. It is recommended to wait for corrections to build long - positions [55][58]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The price of ethylene glycol has bottomed out and is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment. It is not suitable to be used as a short - position target in the short term [59][60]. - **Methanol**: The price has rebounded, mainly due to geopolitical risks and the improvement of the energy - chemical sector's sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider 3 - 5 reverse spreads and expanding MTO profits [61][62]. - **PP and PE**: Both are affected by market sentiment and sector rotation. Their fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][67]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Both are running strongly. It is recommended to wait and see and look for opportunities to buy on dips for styrene [68]. - **Urea**: The price of the 05 contract may continue to rise, but there may be short - term corrections. It is recommended to hold long - positions [69][70]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The soda ash market has an over - supply expectation, and the glass market is in a state of weak supply and demand. Both have limited price elasticity [71][73]. - **Propylene**: The price is affected by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and device - related changes [74][75]. - **Black Commodities** - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices are in a range - bound shock. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand will weaken seasonally [76][77]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space. Although the supply is abundant, the demand has certain resilience, and the steel mill's restocking demand is strong [78][80]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The demand for coking coal and coke may be insufficient in the short term. The coking coal spot price may face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to post - holiday mine resumption and macro - sentiment changes [81][83]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicon**: They are in a range - bound shock, with silicon ferrosilicon in the range of 5400 - 5900 yuan and silicon manganese in the range of 5700 - 6100 yuan [84][85]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities** - **Live Pigs**: The spot price has stabilized. The main 03 contract may rise in an oscillating manner [87][88]. - **Cotton**: The domestic cotton price has an upward drive in the medium - to long - term, but the short - term upward space is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is recommended to build long - positions on dips [89][91]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price has limited probability of further increase due to the decline of raw sugar and weak demand [92][93]. - **Eggs**: The main contract may weaken in an oscillating manner due to the weakening of pre - holiday demand [94][95]. - **Apples**: The futures price may continue to rise if the demand continues to improve and inventory is removed more than expected [95][96]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [97]. - **Logs**: The price is in a range of 750 - 795, and a double - selling strategy of put at 750 and call at 800 can be considered [98][101].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the technical adjustment of non - ferrous related varieties last week, there are signs of a rebound, and silver has reached a new high. The underlying logic is the demand logic of related commodities driven by the new economy, new energy, and AI economy, and there may be a risk of short - squeeze as the market progresses. The anti - involution logic of low - valued varieties is gradually advancing. Recently, chemical varieties have shown signs of a rebound and increased trading activity, which is worthy of attention. The national policy is determined to rectify involution - style competition and adjust the dynamic adjustment ability of the supply side. It is believed that anti - involution will be an inevitable theme in 2026 [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - long Market Viewpoint Summary - The strength - weakness structure of the commodity market in the past week remains unchanged, with non - ferrous metals and precious metals remaining strong. Chemical varieties have also shown strong performance recently. After a recent technical adjustment, non - ferrous commodities are strengthening again, and the upward trend continues [4]. - Gold and silver have broken through new highs after a short - term technical adjustment, and there are no signs of a trend reversal from the technical form [4]. - In the context of the easing of China - Canada trade relations, rapeseed oil has weakened, but soybean oil and palm oil are unaffected. The overall downside space for oils and fats is very limited, and they can be used as long - position allocations [4]. - The chemical sector will generally operate within the anti - involution framework in 2026. The national policy emphasizes the supply - demand adjustment of the petrochemical sector. The production capacity of glass has declined significantly recently, and the valuation of chemical products has reached an extreme level [4]. - Steel in the black sector is one of the key anti - involution varieties, and the downside space for coal is also limited. The coal supply - guarantee market is nearing its end. Recently, chemical varieties are showing signs of an upward trend [4]. 3.2 Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is 34.115 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals have a capital inflow of 5.764 billion yuan, non - ferrous metals 3.479 billion yuan, black metals - 0.594 billion yuan, energy 0.274 billion yuan, chemicals 4.047 billion yuan, feed and breeding 0.478 billion yuan, oils and fats 2.118 billion yuan, and soft commodities 0.259 billion yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It shows price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, gold, silver, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 21.8%, and the inventory percentile is 100% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: It details price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for energy and chemical products such as fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For example, the price percentile of fuel oil is 7.5%, and the inventory percentile is 44.1% [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It provides price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, open - interest change percentile, and annualized basis for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 9.9%, and the inventory percentile is 91.9% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - This week, the A-share market showed a significant differentiation pattern of "small and medium-cap stocks leading, large-cap stocks under pressure", with the CSI 500 index performing the best. The trading volume of the two markets first declined, then stabilized, and then increased again, maintaining a high level of trading activity. Policy support for emerging industries and advanced manufacturing, along with high market risk appetite and capital preference for small and medium-cap stocks, drove the continuous strengthening of small and medium-cap stock indices. Meanwhile, cooling operations such as multiple surges in broad-based ETFs affected large-cap stocks more significantly, exacerbating the divergence between large and small-cap indices [2]. - Next week, focus on the Fed's January interest rate meeting, with the market expecting the interest rate to remain unchanged, and the core point being the statement on the interest rate cut path. The ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 has reached a five-year low. Historically, policy orientation, structural changes in fundamentals, and shifts in capital preferences are the core drivers of style switching. In the short term, the leading pattern of the CSI 500 is expected to continue, and a neutral to bullish approach is maintained, but beware of the technical correction risk caused by the local overheating of small and medium-cap stock indices [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Analysis - This week, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.62%, the SSE 50 index by 1.54%, the CSI 500 index by 4.34%, and the CSI 1000 index by 2.89%. The CSI 500 index performed the best [7]. - The trading volume of the two markets first declined, then stabilized, and then increased again, maintaining a high level of trading activity [2]. - The recent trade conflict between the US and Europe over Greenland has affected European stock markets, but the impact on A-shares is limited. A-shares maintain a relatively independent operation rhythm due to China's industrial chain integrity, policy support, and a rich policy toolbox [30]. 2. Key Focus and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Fed's January Interest Rate Meeting - The market expects the Fed to keep the interest rate unchanged in January, and the core focus is on the statement of the interest rate cut path. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate at 275 - 300 basis points in January 2026 is 97.2% [2][31]. 2.2 The Ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 Reaches a Five - Year Low: Can the Structural Market Continue? - The ratio of CSI 300 to CSI 500 has reached a five - year low. In September 2021, August 2021, and other periods, there were also significant market trends related to the CSI 500 and CSI 300. Policy orientation, structural changes in fundamentals, and shifts in capital preferences are the core drivers of style switching [2][32][34]. 2.3 Market Outlook and Strategy Recommendations - In the short term, the leading pattern of the CSI 500 is expected to continue. It is recommended to maintain a neutral to bullish approach, but beware of the technical correction risk caused by the local overheating of small and medium - cap stock indices [2].