南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月26日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 宽幅震荡：12-20万 | 107.8% | 95.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周 ...

【南华观点】特朗普 2026 年第二任期首次国情咨文演讲，不仅是其化解执政危机、为国 会中期选举造势的核心政治动作，更是决定 2026 年全球宏观定价逻辑、大类资产走势与 跨境资本流动的核心风向标，其政策表态直接牵动美元信用、全球贸易体系与金融市场风 险偏好。本次演讲是在特朗普执政多重风险集中爆发的背景下落地，核心关税政策被美国 最高法院釜底抽薪式否决、支持率跌至第二任期谷底、政府部分停摆与两党极化加剧，叠 加中期选举的关键时间窗口，决定了本次演讲的政策表态兼具危机对冲与政治博弈的双重 属性，也为全球金融市场埋下了短期情绪波动与长期不确定性的双重伏笔。演讲核心的金 融相关政策中，最受市场关注的关税体系重构，特朗普正面回应司法危机，给出以《1974 年贸易法》为核心的替代法律框架，推出 150 天 15% 的全球临时进口关税，配套 301、 232 条款构建长期关税体系，短期对冲了财政收入缺口，却并未消除政策的长期不可预测 性，临时关税的到期风险、专项调查的边界模糊，将延后企业资本开支、扰动全球供应链 修复，加剧市场对通胀反弹的担忧，进而打乱美联储货币政策的宽松节奏，为美元指数、 美债收益率带来持续波动压力。与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate market, including futures data, spot data, basis and warehouse receipt data, and cost - profit analysis, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [2][19][26][37] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 107.6% and a historical percentile of 95.7% over 3 years [2] - The main contract's closing price is 166,480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2360 yuan (1.44%) and a weekly increase of 29,140 yuan (21.22%). The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the main contract and weighted index contract also showed significant changes [4] - The CME lithium hydroxide futures prices for different months in 2026 showed varying degrees of increase, and the LME lithium hydroxide futures also had corresponding trading data [14][17] Spot Data - In the lithium battery industry chain, various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery materials showed price changes. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 5400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 575 yuan (11.92%) [19] - The price differences between different lithium products also changed. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton, while the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed [22] Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and near - month contract showed seasonal characteristics. The basis of different brands of lithium carbonate also had corresponding quotes [28][29][30] - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 330 to 38,525, and the warehouse receipts of different warehouses also changed [33] Cost - Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and lithium hydroxide production profits by different methods showed different trends over time. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also had corresponding data [38][39]

正文 《国情咨文（State of the Union Address）》，是美国总统依据《美利坚合众国宪法》第二条第三款 的法定要求，于每年年初向美国国会参众两院联席会议发表的年度施政纲领演讲与国家治理报告。它既是美 国行政分支向立法分支履行法定政务通报义务的核心制度安排，也是总统面向全美公众与全球传递政策信号 的最高规格政治活动。其内容通常涵盖过去一年的执政成果总结、内政外交核心挑战研判，以及本年度主推 的立法议程、预算方案、民生与国家安全核心施政优先事项。除法定通报功能外，它更是美国总统推动国会 立法、凝聚国内政治共识、开展公众政治动员的关键载体，是全球观察美国国家政策走向与战略布局的核心 权威窗口。历经两百余年演变，除新任总统就职当年通常发表国会联席会议特别演讲外，历任总统均会按惯 例发表这一年度演讲，如今更通过电视、网络渠道实现全球同步传播，其影响力早已超越美国国界。 北京时间2026年2月25日10点，美国前总统、现任总统特朗普发表了其第二任期内的首次国情咨文演 讲。本次演讲时长近110分钟，创下美国国情咨文演讲时长的历史纪录，官方主题定为"美国250年：强大、 繁荣与受尊重"，精准紧扣美国建国2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate has shown a strong trend, driven by domestic industrial progress, geopolitical stances, policy coordination, and a weakening US dollar. The long - term upward trend of RMB is supported by the continuous improvement of domestic industrial chain autonomy [2]. - Stock indices are expected to be strong, supported by positive liquidity and sentiment, with the spring rally and policy - favorable expectations [5]. - Treasury bonds' upward space should be viewed with caution, with a suggestion to hold a small amount of T2606 mid - line long positions and wait for short - term layout opportunities [6]. - Container shipping futures (European routes) are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the market weighing macro - level positives against the physical market fundamentals [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to first consolidate and then rise; aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate; zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly; nickel - stainless steel is expected to maintain high - level volatility; tin is expected to maintain high - level consolidation; lead is expected to fluctuate [15][16][17][19][20][21]. - For oilseeds, the market is expected to focus on short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities. Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][25]. - For energy and oil and gas, high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong. Asphalt is expected to have small fluctuations [27][28]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a long - term bullish trend, while gold and silver are strategically bullish, with silver focusing on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio [31][34]. - For chemicals, pulp futures can try a small - amount low - buying strategy, and offset - printing paper futures can maintain range trading. Pure benzene and styrene should focus on geopolitical trends, and LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics. Methanol should be temporarily observed, and plastics and PP are supported by cost. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend, and urea can be bought at low levels. Glass and soda ash's supply expectations may change [35][36][38][40][41][44][50][54][56][60]. - For black commodities, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize; coking coal and coke have different trends, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly [64][67][70][71]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig market has weak post - holiday demand; cotton is expected to be strong, but the upward space is restricted; sugar has limited upward space; eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term; apples are pressured by weak demand; red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations; logs can be mainly observed [72][75][76][77][87][88][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Includes news such as US tariff adjustments, gold margin and price - limit adjustments, Spring Festival tourism data, AI - related policies, the Iran situation, and Fed officials' statements [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB has appreciated, driven by domestic industrial and geopolitical factors, as well as a weakening US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.88 [2][4]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices opened higher after the Spring Festival, with small - and medium - cap indices performing relatively strongly. They are expected to be strong due to positive liquidity and sentiment [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose on Tuesday, but the upward space should be viewed with caution. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term chasing of highs should be avoided [6]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on the first trading day after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with multiple positive factors and some negative factors [8][9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose slightly after the holiday. It is expected to first consolidate and then rise, and a horizontal arbitrage strategy can be considered [13][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate. Aluminum should pay attention to post - holiday demand and the Iran situation; alumina is bearish in the long term; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices followed the external market to make up for the increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of the negative feedback of tariff news on the market [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel rose on the first trading day after the holiday. They are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream and US tariff disturbances [17][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices recovered their decline and are expected to maintain high - level consolidation, paying attention to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption of production in Myanmar [20]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a large divergence after the opening, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US tariff policy may affect China's soybean procurement. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. The domestic soybean meal market is short - term long and medium - term bearish, and attention should be paid to short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but exports are declining; soybean oil has cost support; rapeseed oil supply is expected to be loose [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while the low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong due to rigid buying support [27]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices fluctuated slightly. The spot market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices during the holiday, but the actual transaction is not satisfactory. It may face a decline if the demand fails to meet expectations after the holiday [28]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium are expected to be bullish in the long term, supported by factors such as tariff policies and the Iran situation. Attention should be paid to relevant investigations and new tariff measures [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices adjusted downward. They are strategically bullish, and silver should focus on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and Fed meetings [33][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures are expected to continue to rise, and a small - amount low - buying strategy can be considered. Offset - printing paper futures are expected to fluctuate, and range trading can be maintained [35][36]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose after the holiday. Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and a long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics, especially the Iran - US negotiation. The domestic supply and demand situation has little change [39][40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose, mainly due to concerns about the Iran - US conflict and a significant reduction in imports. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. - **Plastics and PP**: Plastic and PP prices rose following the oil price. They are supported by cost and macro - factors. Attention should be paid to mid - stream inventory accumulation and downstream demand release [42][44]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend. Natural rubber is in the low - production season, and synthetic rubber has cost support. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory digestion [45][50][51]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rose, driven by the high price of the latest Indian urea import tender. It is recommended to buy at low levels [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to have a complex supply - demand situation, with potential weakening of demand and possible production reduction. Glass is in a supply - demand weak situation, and high inventory is a risk [55][56][57][60]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to the Iran - US negotiation and the supply - demand situation [62]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with high supply pressure and slow - starting demand [64]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize. The supply improvement needs to be observed, and the demand is expected to increase with the resumption of work in steel mills [65][67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is relatively weak, while coke has a first - round price increase. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in mines and steel mills [68][70]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by the high inventory of downstream steel products [71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The post - holiday pig market has weak demand, and a selling - call - option strategy can be considered [72][73]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are strong, but the upward space is restricted by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. A long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [74][75]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the upward space of sugar prices is limited [76]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term, affected by high inventory and weak consumption in the short term [77]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are pressured by weak post - holiday demand, but the decline space is limited due to delivery contradictions [87]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations, with attention paid to post - holiday demand [88]. - **Logs**: Logs can be mainly observed, with a relatively neutral valuation. A small - amount low - buying strategy and a small - amount 03 - 05 reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered [89][90].

金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped by 6.31 points, a decline of -0.23%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil variety index having a change of -1.9% and a contribution rate of -0.31%, and the palm oil variety index having a change of -3.63% and a contribution rate of -0.16% [1][2] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell by 18.49 points, a decrease of -0.51%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and iron ore, with the crude oil variety index having a contribution rate of -0.33% and the iron ore variety index having a contribution rate of -0.16% [1][2] - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with the most influential variety being lithium carbonate, contributing 0.52% [1][2] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index declined by 17.69 points, a drop of -1.11%. The most influential variety was crude oil, with a contribution rate of -0.48% [2] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 2.48 points, an increase of 0.23%. The most influential variety was soybean meal, with a contribution rate of 0.27% [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Data Summary | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2723.32 | 2729.62 | -6.31 | -0.23% | 2779.86 | 2723.32 | 56.54 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 2131.41 | 2063.61 | 67.80 | 3.29% | 2203.72 | 2063.61 | 140.11 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3605.09 | 3623.58 | -18.49 | -0.51% | 3667.91 | 3605.09 | 62.83 | | Metal Index NHMI | 7011.05 | 6981.69 | 29.36 | 0.42% | 7126.36 | 6981.69 | 144.67 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1569.97 | 1587.66 | -17.69 | -1.11% | 1598.11 | 1569.97 | 28.15 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 2021.71 | 1990.25 | 31.47 | 1.58% | 2062.45 | 1990.25 | 72.20 | | Black Index NHFI | 2466.17 | 2493.61 | -27.44 | -1.10% | 2493.61 | 2466.17 | 27.44 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1059.62 | 1057.14 | 2.48 | 0.23% | 1061.11 | 1054.59 | 6.52 | | Nanhua Composite Index NHCIMi | 1195.04 | 1210.65 | -15.61 | -1.29% | 1219.72 | 1195.04 | 24.67 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 1018.32 | 1034.36 | -16.04 | -1.55% | 1041.88 | 1018.32 | 23.56 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 925.04 | 938.88 | -13.84 | -1.47% | 942.86 | 925.04 | 17.82 | | Coal Chemical Engineering Index NHCCI | 934.78 | 950.45 | -15.67 | -1.65% | 951.53 | 934.78 | 16.75 | | Black Raw Materials Xinjiang NHFMI | 1024.39 | 1040.92 | -16.53 | -1.59% | 1041.69 | 1024.39 | 17.30 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 680.44 | 689.07 | -8.63 | -1.25% | 689.07 | 680.44 | 8.63 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl | 1234.90 | 1232.08 | 2.83 | 0.23% | 1237.96 | 1230.95 | 7.00 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 940.84 | 928.88 | 11.96 | 1.29% | 941.59 | 928.88 | 12.71 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength and Weakness Arbitrage Data - The report provides the current value, previous value (last week), change, and ranking of the ratio of various Nanhua commodity indices and variety indices. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index is 0.783 (previous value 0.756, change 0.03, ranking 0.992), and the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index is 1.324 (previous value 1.328, change 0.00, ranking 0.011) [11] 3.3 Nanhua's Sector Indices Weekly Data 3.3.1 Nanhua Industrial Products Index - This week's closing is 3605.09, last week's closing is 3623.58, with a decline of -0.51%. The most influential varieties are crude oil and iron ore. The crude oil variety index has a contribution rate of -0.33%, and the iron ore variety index has a contribution rate of -0.16%. There are 21 commodities in total, 9 rising commodities, and 11 falling commodities [1][2][16] 3.3.2 Nanhua Metal Index - This week's closing is 7011.05, last week's closing is 6981.69, with an increase of 0.42%. The most influential variety is lithium carbonate, contributing 0.52%. There are 13 commodities in total, 8 rising commodities, and 2 falling commodities [1][2][16] 3.3.3 Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index - This week's closing is 1569.97, last week's closing is 1587.66, with a decline of -1.11%. The most influential variety is crude oil, with a contribution rate of -0.48%. There are 20 commodities in total, 7 rising commodities, and 13 falling commodities [2][16] 3.3.4 Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - This week's closing is 1059.62, last week's closing is 1057.14, with an increase of 0.23%. The most influential variety is soybean meal, with a contribution rate of 0.27%. There are 13 commodities in total, 8 rising commodities, and 5 falling commodities [2][16] 3.3.5 Nanhua Black Index - This week's closing is 2466.17, last week's closing is 2493.61, with a decline of -1.10%. The most influential varieties are iron ore, rebar, and coke. The iron ore variety index has a contribution rate of -0.58%, the rebar variety index has a contribution rate of -0.25%, and the coke variety index has a contribution rate of -0.18%. There are 7 commodities in total, 1 rising commodity, and 5 falling commodities [17] 3.3.6 Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index - This week's closing is 2021.71, last week's closing is 1990.25, with an increase of 1.58%. The most influential varieties are lithium carbonate, nickel, and tin. The lithium carbonate variety index has a contribution rate of 0.90%, the nickel variety index has a contribution rate of 0.49%, and the tin variety index has a contribution rate of 0.21%. There are 8 commodities in total, 5 rising commodities, and 2 falling commodities [19] 3.4 Contribution Degree of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - The report provides the average weekly open interest, month-on-month increase rate, open interest ratio, and other data of various futures varieties, including soybean meal, lithium carbonate, rebar, coking coal, etc. [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -1.69% today. All sector indices and theme indices declined, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the largest decline of -2.47% among sector indices and the Energy Index having the largest decline of -2.26% among theme indices. The smallest decline among sector indices was the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index at -0.11%, and the smallest decline among theme indices was the Economic Crops Index at -0.08%. Among single - variety indices of commodity futures, the caustic soda index had the largest increase of 3.46%, and the tin index had the largest decline of -6.19% [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2723.32 today, down 46.86 points or -1.69% from yesterday, with an annualized return rate of 4.84%, an annualized volatility of 13.67%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.35. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 2131.41, down 53.94 points or -2.47%, with an annualized return rate of 92.90%, an annualized volatility of 30.24%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.07. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3605.09, down 54.12 points or -1.48%, with an annualized return rate of -7.02%, an annualized volatility of 14.79%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.47. - The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 7011.05, down 99.70 points or -1.40%, with an annualized return rate of 9.58%, an annualized volatility of 14.20%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.67. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1569.97, down 22.07 points or -1.39%, with an annualized return rate of -16.43%, an annualized volatility of 17.25%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.95. - The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 2021.71, down 37.32 points or -1.81%, with an annualized return rate of 22.10%, an annualized volatility of 17.75%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.25. - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2466.17, down 11.65 points or -0.47%, with an annualized return rate of -7.00%, an annualized volatility of 16.09%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.43. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1059.62, down 1.20 points or -0.11%, with an annualized return rate of -0.90%, an annualized volatility of 7.57%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.12. - The Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1195.04, down 20.50 points or -1.69%, with an annualized return rate of 0.91%, an annualized volatility of 15.36%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06. - The Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 1018.32, down 23.56 points or -2.26%, with an annualized return rate of 0.63%, an annualized volatility of 23.54%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03. - The Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 925.04, down 9.75 points or -1.04%, with an annualized return rate of 2.24%, an annualized volatility of 16.32%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.14. - The Combustible Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 934.78, down 11.74 points or -1.24%, with an annualized return rate of 1.16%, an annualized volatility of 15.61%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.07. - The Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1024.39, down 8.62 points or -0.83%, with an annualized return rate of -0.36%, an annualized volatility of 17.06%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.02. - The Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 680.44, down 2.89 points or -0.42%, with an annualized return rate of -0.66%, an annualized volatility of 13.19%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05. - The Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1234.90, down 1.07 points or -0.09%, with an annualized return rate of 0.27%, an annualized volatility of 10.26%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03. - The Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 940.84, down 0.75 points or -0.08%, with an annualized return rate of 1.10%, an annualized volatility of 9.91%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.11 [3]. Single - Variety Index of Agricultural Products - Palm oil had a decline of -0.96%, rapeseed oil had a decline of -0.10%, rapeseed had a decline of -0.83%, rapeseed meal had an increase of 0.26%, and live pigs had a decline of -0.35% [8]. Single - Variety Index of Energy and Chemical Sector - Synthetic ammonia had a decline of -1.05%, coal had a decline of -3.00%, polyethylene had a decline of -2.48%, and crude oil had a decline of -3.34% [6][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the latest data on lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price trends, trading volumes, open interests, and cost - profit analysis, to help investors understand the current situation of the lithium carbonate market [2][20][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 115.2%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 96.3% [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 840 yuan (-0.56%) and a weekly increase of 16,640 yuan (12.53%). The trading volume is 304,798 lots, a daily decrease of 47,079 lots (-13.38%) and a weekly decrease of 226,926 lots (-42.68%). The open interest is 353,975 lots, a daily decrease of 2,556 lots (-0.72%) and a weekly increase of 24,198 lots (7.34%) [4]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME and LME also have relevant lithium hydroxide futures data, including opening prices, highs, lows, last prices, changes, and settlement prices [14]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (3.62%); the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,500 yuan (3.35%) [20]. - **Cell Materials**: The prices of various cell materials also fluctuated. The price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 52,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,090 yuan (2.13%) [20]. - **Price Spreads**: The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract shows certain seasonal fluctuations. The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands also vary, such as - 800 yuan for Shengxin Lithium Energy and 0 yuan for Tianqi Lithium Industry [29][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 37,282 lots, an increase of 1,755 lots from the previous day [34]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and the production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticizing/smelting methods show different trends. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also fluctuate [39][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The latest price data in January 2026 in China shows a mild recovery at a low level with structural differentiation, while the non - farm data in the US in January greatly exceeded expectations, leading to an adjustment of the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Domestic price repair depends on the optimization of "new supply" and the unblocking of the transmission chain in the middle and lower reaches. The economic opportunities from the visit and domestic growth - stabilizing policies may lead to a valuation repair of pro - cyclical sectors [2]. - In the short term, for the RMB exchange rate, pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline, and its linkage with the US dollar index may increase [3]. - For the stock index, the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - For the bond market, it is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - For the container shipping European line, the market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. - For new energy products, the spot market for lithium carbonate is trading lightly, and it is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [15][17]. - For non - ferrous metals, aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy may be in a shock adjustment. Copper may be weak in its rebound, zinc may be in a shock, nickel - stainless steel may be affected by quota disturbances, tin may be adjusted in a wide - range shock, and lead may fluctuate weakly [20][26][28]. - For oilseeds and fats, for oilseeds, there are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities. For fats, the domestic market has limited driving forces and is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [31][33]. - For energy and oil and gas, for fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, due to geopolitical uncertainties, it is recommended to control positions before the holiday. For asphalt, its price may follow the cost - end crude oil, and there may be a decline after the holiday [35][37][39]. - For precious metals, for platinum and palladium, the long - term bull market foundation still exists, and it is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. For gold and silver, the long - term upward trend remains, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [43][45]. - For chemical products, for pulp and offset paper, it is recommended to conduct range trading. For pure benzene - styrene, pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. For LPG, pay attention to geopolitical uncertainties. For PTA - PX, it is advisable to buy at low prices. For MEG - bottle chips, it is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. For methanol, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For plastics and PP, the short - term driving force is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock before the holiday. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday, and it is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For urea, it is recommended to be empty before the holiday. For glass and soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday. For propylene, pay attention to cost and risk [51][54][57][62][65][67][69][80][82][83][86]. - For black products, for rebar and hot - rolled coils, the price may be in a weak shock. For iron ore, it is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday. For coking coal and coke, pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday. For ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, they are in a bottom - shock state [88][91][94][95]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, for live pigs, it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract. For cotton, it is expected to be in a shock in the short term. For sugar, the upward space is limited. For eggs, the main contract is expected to decline in a shock. For rubber, it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock. For apples, the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited. For red dates, the short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure. For logs, it is recommended to wait and see [99][100][103][104][111][113][114][116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's CPI and PPI data in January 2026 showed a mild recovery at a low level. The US non - farm data in January was strong, affecting the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts. Indonesia plans to cut the output of the world's largest nickel mine by 70%, and the US Congressional Budget Office expects the 2026 deficit to be $1.9 trillion [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The US non - farm report in January was strong, delaying the market's expectations for the Fed's first interest rate cut. The RMB exchange rate was under the central bank's regulation and maintained a mild appreciation. Pre - holiday seasonal settlement demand may support the RMB's appreciation, but after the holiday, its endogenous appreciation power may decline [3]. - **Stock Index**: The Fed's interest rate cut rhythm may be postponed, putting pressure on the stock index before the holiday. After the holiday, there may be opportunities for the IC contract [7]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to be cautious before the holiday, with a small amount of medium - term long positions in T2606 and to exit the March contract at high prices [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The market is in a small - scale shock, and funds are cautious. The spot price decline has slowed down, but there are still uncertainties in the market [11][12]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market is trading lightly. The downstream pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the supply - demand pattern has not changed significantly. It is recommended to sell volatility strategies before the holiday [15]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The market is in a wide - range shock. Due to high inventory, it is recommended to hold a light position or be empty before the holiday [16][17]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The non - farm data in the US was better than expected, reducing the probability of interest rate cuts. The fundamentals of aluminum have not changed much, and it may be in a shock adjustment. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, and cast aluminum alloy may follow aluminum [20]. - **Copper**: The probability of a March interest rate cut has decreased, and the copper price's rebound is weak. It is recommended to hold a light position or wait and see before the holiday [20][23]. - **Zinc**: It follows the sector's adjustment, and the non - farm data suppresses the price. It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is affected by quota disturbances. The market is in a supply - demand double - weak situation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the risk of capital withdrawal before the holiday [27][28]. - **Tin**: Its price is mainly driven by the macro situation and is expected to be in a wide - range shock adjustment [29][30]. - **Lead**: It follows the sector's fluctuation and is expected to be in a weak shock [30]. Oilseeds and Fats - **Oilseeds**: The external market of US soybeans is strong in the short - term, and the domestic soybean meal may rebound in the short - term but may be restricted by new supplies in the long - term. There are few unilateral opportunities, and it is recommended to pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities [31]. - **Fats**: The domestic market has limited driving forces. The palm oil market needs to observe the de - stocking process, the soybean oil has support from policies, and the rapeseed oil supply is loose. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [32][33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: It opened high and went high. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is being repaired, and the demand is weak in some areas. The logic is mainly related to geopolitics, and it is recommended to control positions before the holiday [35]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cost has increased, and it opened high and went high. The supply is relatively abundant in the short - term, the demand is stable, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to control positions before the holiday [36][37]. - **Asphalt**: Its price increase is weak. The demand has reached the freezing point before the holiday, and it may follow the cost - end crude oil. There may be a decline after the holiday [38][39]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term bull market foundation still exists. It is recommended to buy in steps at low prices and control positions. Pay attention to the impact of Fed officials' speeches and relevant events [43]. - **Gold and Silver**: The long - term upward trend remains, but the short - term operation is difficult. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions before the holiday [45]. Chemical Products - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is relatively neutral, and the offset paper futures may be in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to conduct range trading [51][52]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pay attention to cost - end fluctuations. The supply of pure benzene increases, and the demand is flat. The supply of styrene will increase in February, and the demand will decrease during the Spring Festival [54][55]. - **LPG**: There are still uncertainties in geopolitics. The supply is neutral - low, and the demand is at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to risk management before the holiday [56][57]. - **PTA - PX**: It benefits from the good supply - demand structure of PX. The first quarter may see inventory accumulation, and the second quarter may be in short supply. It is advisable to buy at low prices [59][62]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand is seasonally weak, and the supply - demand balance has improved. It is expected to fluctuate in a wide range, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [63][65]. - **Methanol**: It follows geopolitics and non - ferrous metals. It is recommended to be empty before the holiday [66][67]. - **Plastics and PP**: The short - term driving force is limited. PE has a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and PP has limited supply pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a shock before the holiday [68][69]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [72][80]. - **Urea**: It is in a stage of over - supply due to new capacity release. The 05 contract may have a price increase expectation, but it is recommended to exit long positions and be empty before the holiday [81][82]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: For soda ash, the demand is expected to weaken, and it is in a weak shock. For glass, there may be concentrated cold repairs before the Spring Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [83][84]. - **Propylene**: The fundamentals still have support, but the cost has uncertainties. Pay attention to cost, supply - demand, and risk [85][86]. Black Products - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: The price may be in a weak shock. The supply is relatively strong compared to the demand, and the inventory is accumulating. The price may test the lower limit of the shock range [88][89]. - **Iron Ore**: The overall supply - demand is weak, and the iron water is expected to rise. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously before the holiday [90][91]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: There are many disturbances in the overseas market, and the domestic driving force is insufficient. Pay attention to the resumption rhythm after the holiday [92][94]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: They are in a bottom - shock state. The cost provides support, but the downstream inventory accumulation and high inventory of ferromanganese put pressure on the price [95]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pigs**: The futures price has rebounded, and it is recommended to go long on the 05 contract [98][99]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to be in a shock in the short term. The supply - demand is in a tight - balance state, and the external - internal cotton price difference restricts the upward space [99][100]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price is weak, and the domestic sugar's upward space is limited [101][103]. - **Eggs**: The main contract is expected to decline in a shock. The pre - holiday demand has weakened, and the supply is sufficient [104]. - **Rubber**: It rose and then fell, with synthetic rubber leading the decline. The fundamentals have both support and pressure, and it is recommended to hold a light position before the long holiday and is expected to be in a range - bound shock [104][111]. - **Apples**: The pre - holiday stocking is basically over, and the short - term demand weakens, but the decline space is limited [112][113]. - **Red Dates**: The short - term price may be in a low - level shock, and the long - term price is under pressure due to sufficient supply [114]. - **Logs**: The liquidity is insufficient, and the industry is optimistic about the post - holiday market. It is recommended to wait and see [115][116].