金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年01月06日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 50000 75000 100000 125000 150000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 137940 | 7960 | 6.12% | 7420 | 5.68% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 304237 | ...

> 南华期货 lgger mind, Bigger fortun 智慧创造财富 南华商品指数日报 南华商品指数日报 2026年1月6日 | the same and considered to the first of the | | | | | | | 南华期货 指数发展部 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 晋扬景(Z0000505) | | | | | | | | | 赵 搏(F03103098) 王怡琳(F03118352) | | | | | | | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 | | | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | | 今收费 | 昨收盘 | 点缀 | 日 時 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动室 | Sharpe | | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | 96 | ARB | An. Vol | Ratio | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2695.42 | 2645.01 | 50.41 | 1 ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——驱动尚不明确，油脂市场维持震荡 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月6日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 国内油脂市场受制于高供应压力和疲弱需求，缺乏利好，核心驱动依然在产地外盘市场，当前油脂的核 心矛盾主要依然为以下几点： 1、棕榈油产地库存压力和需求增长的博弈。马来方面库存处于六年半高位，虽然年底进入减产季有望改 善供应压力，但出口提振不足或拖慢去库脚步；印尼B50计划暂无新消息，目前预计26年后半年开始执行， 支撑棕榈油长期需求但短期利好不足，产地整体来看报价上行动力有限。 2、美国生物柴油政策依然不明朗，且分配比例不确定，对市场提着不足。 3、中加和谈结果不明朗，但全球新季菜籽丰产叠加澳籽到港缓解供应紧张情绪，菜油支撑减弱，如中加 关系恢复，菜油供应压力将增大。 4、国内三大油脂库存虽然下滑但总体供应依然充足，缺乏上行动力，其中菜油维持去库，压力相对有 限，豆油库存最高压力最大。 source： 路透,南华研究 美元/吨 2022 2023 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：A 股首个交易日迎"开门红" 【重点行情回顾】前一交易日，国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，贵金属涨幅居前，钯金涨 8.88%，铂金涨 6.48%，沪金、沪银均涨超 1%。新能源材料多数上涨，碳酸锂涨 7.74%。基 本金属全部上涨，沪铝涨 3.98%。国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，伦敦基本金属全线上涨；美油 主力合约收涨 1.8%，报 58.35 美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约涨 1.76%，报 61.82 美元/桶。 【市场资讯】1）证监会召开资本市场财务造假综合惩防体系跨部门工作推进座谈会。会议 认为，资本市场财务造假综合惩防体系建设已进入深化落实的关键阶段，必须坚持问题导 向和系统思维打好综合惩防"组合拳"。2）美国总统特朗普再对印度发出"加税"威胁。特朗 普表示，如果新德里不满足华盛顿限制购买俄罗斯石油的要求，美国可能会提高对印度的 关税。3）2026 年 FOMC 票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，目前美国利率水平 可能已接近对经济既不产生刺激、也不形成抑制的"中性利率"，未来美联储政策走向将取 决于最新经济数据。4）美国 2025 年 12 月 ISM 制造业指数从 48.2 小幅下降 ...

热点解读：地缘冲突下，为何原油和沥青期货盘面出现背离 2026-01-05 18:03:29 南华期货原油、沥青热点解读 ——地缘冲突下，为何原油和沥青期货盘面出现背离 凌川惠（投资咨询资格证号：Z0019531 ） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月5日 核心观点 元旦期间，地缘冲突再次引起市场关注。此次冲突的核心是美国以"缉毒"为由升级制裁与军事行动，并于1 月3日采取"斩首行动"逮捕委内瑞拉总统马杜罗。但同样的地缘扰动下，沥青和原油期货盘面却出现了明显的 背离走势。 此次事件对于国际原油影响更多是地缘溢价回吐。理由如下，首先是美国对委内瑞拉的制裁和军事威胁已 存在多时，国际原油对于此次地缘扰动前期已充分计价。此次行动结束，更多是靴子落地后的利多出尽。其 次，委内原油产量和出口占全球原油贸易中的比重很小，且出口目的地国家也相对集中。以委内瑞拉12月份 生产数据为例，12月份委内产量约96.3万桶/日，约占全球占比原油产量的1%左右。因此，整个委内的产量占 比很小。同时，委内出口的油种主要是重质高硫组分的原油（API15.9,硫含量2.7%），更适用于沥青生产和 炼厂调和所用。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the biggest contradiction in methanol lies in the improvement of the willingness to hold goods. Despite high port inventories, the negotiable inventory is limited. With the slow unloading speed, the methanol port has become a market of stock - based competition. The concentration of cargo rights has led to an increase in port basis, and the strong inland demand has continuously relieved the pressure on the port. In the medium - term, port contradictions will gradually ease. The slow arrival of goods will stretch the inventory accumulation slope, and the pressure of high supply at the port will gradually decrease. From the perspective of port inventories alone, the 05 contract is in a process of gradual inventory reduction. Inland, after the commissioning of Lianhong, traders' bullish sentiment was strong, especially with the maintenance of Jiutai, bringing a prosperous period. However, with Jiutai's resumption, there are signs of weakness. In the long - run, the inland supply - demand situation is still relatively healthy. As an intermediate product, methanol needs to consider the valuation of its upstream and downstream industries. From the perspective of coal and olefin downstream, the valuation is at a low level, and the upside potential of methanol is limited. In summary, under the expectation of inventory reduction, it is difficult for methanol to reach new lows, but its upward movement is restricted by upstream and downstream industries. Attention should be paid to the demand increment brought by the commissioning of new plants. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Methanol Market Review - **First Quarter**: The market was volatile. The article about the Iranian energy crisis in the New York Times triggered a sharp increase in domestic sentiment, with the futures price and port paper - based basis rising significantly. Then, the shutdown of Xingxing at the MTO end led to an expectation of olefin - end shutdown, causing the methanol price to rise first and then fall. After the Spring Festival, there was a large - scale seasonal inventory accumulation inland, and the market price decreased. After the price of inland methanol was oversold, the procurement by coastal olefin producers provided support. The Spring maintenance plans of major plants such as Xin'ao, Rongxin, Huayu, and Jiutai Dalu in March also contributed to the price rebound. The main contradiction was the recovery time of Iranian plants. With the gradual recovery of inland MTO external procurement and downstream operations, the bottom price of methanol was supported. By the end of the first quarter, Iranian plants returned, and the shipping volume recovered, ending the bullish story. - **Second Quarter**: Methanol prices were greatly affected by macro factors. The change in US tariff policy and the outbreak of the Iran - Israel conflict had an impact on the market. The US tariff increase and China's counter - measures led to a decline in methanol valuation. Later, the smooth progress of Sino - US economic and trade talks and a larger - than - expected tariff reduction improved market sentiment, and methanol prices rose. The Iran - Israel conflict increased geopolitical risks. As China is the world's largest methanol consumer and imports a large amount of methanol from Iran, the conflict led to concerns about supply and an increase in downstream costs, pushing up the methanol valuation. After the conflict, the rapid decline in methanol prices was mainly due to the disappearance of "geopolitical premium" rather than a weakening of fundamentals. - **Third Quarter**: The Iran - Israel conflict cooled down, but the shadow of war remained. Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, accelerating the loading of ships. The domestic anti - involution sentiment cooled down, and the cost - end price decreased. The methanol price fluctuated downward with intermittent rebounds. The high - level of overseas imports led to a historical high in port inventories, while the inland market was strong due to continuous external procurement by MTO plants. The theoretical reverse - flow window at the port remained open. In September, there was uncertainty about Iranian shipping. If Iranian plants shut down, it would support the price in the fourth quarter, and the methanol price showed a narrow - range fluctuation. - **Fourth Quarter**: Before the shutdown of Iranian plants, the import volume from Iran exceeded expectations, and the shipping volume reached a historical high. The port basis continued to decline, and the port inventory accumulation accelerated, putting pressure on the port basis. The 1 - 5 month spread first decreased and then rebounded due to the relatively fast shipping in the early stage of the fourth - quarter Iranian shipping. 3.2 2026 Methanol Supply - Demand Pattern Outlook 3.2.1 Supply - Side Device Commissioning - **Domestic**: In 2025, the domestic methanol new - project volume was considerable, and most projects were equipped with downstream facilities. The production process of new projects in 2025 involved coal - based, coke - oven gas - based, and carbon dioxide hydrogenation - based methods. Three new plants were commissioned in the first three quarters of 2025, with a total upstream production capacity of 6.7 million tons, and most of them were配套 with downstream facilities. In 2026, the planned commissioning production capacity was 5.55 million tons, including large - scale projects such as China Coal Yulin and Inner Mongolia Zhuozheng, but they were all配套 with downstream facilities, so the actual external sales volume was limited. - **Overseas**: In 2025, the overseas new commissioning production capacity was 3.4 million tons, including Sarawak in Malaysia (1.75 million tons/year) and Apadana in Iran (1.65 million tons/year). In 2026, attention should be paid to the 1.65 - million - ton/year Denapetro (DPC) plant in Iran. - **Iranian Shipping**: In the fourth quarter of 2024, the early arrival of overseas cold snaps led to the shutdown of some Iranian plants and a strengthening of the port basis. In the first quarter of 2025, the monthly average shipping volume from Iran was about 210,000 tons, and the import volume decreased by 40% compared with the first quarter of 2024 due to the delayed restart of Iranian plants. In the second quarter, the Iran - Israel conflict affected Iranian methanol production areas, and the shipping volume in June decreased sharply. In the third quarter, the conflict cooled down, and Iran adopted low - inventory shipping, with a monthly average shipping volume of 960,000 tons, putting pressure on the port. 3.2.2 Demand - Side Device Commissioning - **MTO Demand in 2026**: In 2025, one new MTO plant (Inner Mongolia Baofeng) was commissioned in the first quarter. Shandong Lianhong was postponed until December 2025. In 2026, a Guangxi Huayi MTO plant is expected to be commissioned in May. - **Traditional Demand in 2025**: In the first quarter, the downstream weighted operating rate was relatively high compared with the historical average, driven by the inland MTO demand. The MTBE demand increased significantly, with more export orders and new plant commissioning. In the second quarter, the downstream situation was affected by summer maintenance, but the operating rate was still acceptable. In the third quarter, the traditional downstream operating rate weakened, but the demand was resilient, with the demand increment mainly in acetic acid and MTBE. - **New Downstream Commissioning in 2026**: In 2025, the new downstream demand pattern was acceptable, with a slower growth rate compared with 2024. The new downstream industries mainly included BDO, acetic acid, silicone, formaldehyde, MTBE, and DMF, with BDO and acetic acid having the largest new production capacity. In 2026, there are many new downstream commissioning plans, including MTO, acetic acid, MTBE, BDO, and ethanol projects, which will support the methanol demand. 3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Views - **Balance Sheet**: The 05 contract is in a process of continuous inventory reduction. In the short - term, the port is a stock - based competition market due to the improvement of the willingness to hold goods, slow unloading speed, and concentrated cargo rights, which has led to an increase in port basis. The strong inland demand has relieved the port pressure. In the long - run, the port contradictions will ease, and the pressure of high supply will decrease. Inland, the supply - demand situation is relatively healthy in the long - run, although there are short - term fluctuations. - **Strategy Views**: The future game points of methanol may include the inventory accumulation expectation after Iran's return (continued high - volume shipping), the huge demand increment brought by the commissioning of Huayi, and the limited upside potential of methanol due to the pressure on upstream and downstream industries.

南华浩淞大豆气象分析报告 ———巴西产区开启籽粒灌浆，阿根廷进入需求关键期 . 靳晚冬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022725） 联系邮箱：jwd@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月05日 本周重要气象提示 1、巴西：全国22.6%处于开花期，38.5%处于营养生长期，37.3%处于籽粒灌浆期，整体进入需水关键期， 另有部分早播大豆已进入成熟收获期。马托格罗索州田间长势良好，已摆脱11月降雨不均的负面影响；重播 面积仍处历史均值区间，收获即将开始；戈亚斯州播种临近收尾；降雨趋于规律，田间缺苗与长势不均现象 明显减少；南马托格罗索州持续降雨继续利好作物，大部分地块已进入生殖生长期，高产潜力大；米纳斯吉 拉斯州播种全部结束，近期雨量减少有利于农药喷施；巴伊亚州晴雨相间，利于作物生长及最后阶段播种作 业；巴拉那州收获已启动，约1/3面积处于籽粒灌浆期，大部分作物发育良好；南里奥格兰德州近期降雨使此 前因干旱受阻的营养生长得以恢复，同时为12月初播种的地块提供发芽条件，并推动播种工作顺利延续。 2、阿根廷：大豆周环比增长6.5%后来到82%。目前基本全部种植区作物生长状 ...

——春节前下游补库节奏渐起 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月05日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅震荡偏强态势。展望未来，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂 资源释放进度、国内锂矿库存紧张程度、下游需求的可持续性，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存紧张程度有所缓解，2026年1月份锂矿进口量持续放量，一定程度上可以缓解 市场锂矿紧张程度。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"经过持续不断的炒作后，市场对此消息的反应已经减 弱，建议直接关注公司公告和工厂实际开工情况。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游库存降幅 显著。同时，下游补库节奏亦不容忽视，预计后续春节前补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。 综合基本面等因素分析，中长期看，行业基本面支撑下的长期价值并未改变，碳酸锂仍具备逢低布多的机 会。操作层面，建议投资者聚焦回调后的结构性做多机会，依托基本面锚定合理估值区间 ...

本周多晶硅期货价格整体呈宽幅震荡态势，暂无法判断趋势。当前主导多晶硅期货价格走势的核心逻辑，聚 焦于以下因素：供给端检修停产情况、下游需求端排产情况、光伏反内卷政策、仓单注册情况。 从基本面角度看，行业基本面当前呈现"供需双弱"的特征：供给端，多晶硅环节产量已出现下滑趋势，行 业供给扩张节奏显著放缓；需求端，下游硅片、电池片及组件环节产量同步承压，产业链整体呈现收缩态 势。库存端，多晶硅库存仍处于近期高位，未见明显拐点。从终端需求来看，本周组件招标市场表现偏弱， 招标数量与成交均价均有所下降，后续需持续观察终端中标市场情况。 综合来看，后续交易逻辑建议以价格走势、量能变化为支撑的技术面逻辑为主，基本面仍暂时失效。 南华期货光伏产业周报 ——波动率有所下降，基本面逐渐生效 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年01月05日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 光伏组件周度中标情况 元/瓦 光伏组件周度中标数据-中标均价 光伏组件项周度中标规模(右2轴) ...