Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward cycle of gold is not over, and any adjustment in gold prices should be seen as a buying opportunity on dips. The long - term trend of gold is anchored to its monetary attribute, and with the decline of the US dollar currency system, global central banks will increase their gold allocation and reduce their US dollar allocation. [2][120] - In the fourth quarter, central bank gold purchases will act as a support, and investment demand will be the driving force. Investment demand will shift from uncertain hedging transactions to interest - rate cut transactions on the monetary policy side. The target price of London gold in Q4 2025 will move up to the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce, and the domestic price will be in the range of 820 - 900 yuan/gram. [2][121] - Silver trends generally follow gold, but there are differences in fundamentals and volatility. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce, and the domestic price is 10000 - 12000 yuan/kilogram. A strategy of buying on dips is recommended. [3][121] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Precious Metals Market Review - In 2025, the domestic and foreign precious metals markets continued the bull market in 2024, with strong upward momentum and the relative strength of gold and silver switching. The foreign market outperformed the domestic market, mainly due to the appreciation of the RMB. [9] - In the third quarter, the precious metals market had both synchronization and differentiation. Gold started to break through upwards in late August, silver followed gold's upward movement in late August after a period of adjustment, and platinum's price moved up following gold and silver after a large - scale fluctuation in July. [9] - As of September 19, 2025, all precious metals showed significant price increases compared to the end of 2024, with COMEX silver having the highest increase of 48.05%, and the gold - to - silver ratio decreased by 3.75%. [19] 2. Cross - Market Price Difference Fluctuations Caused by Concerns over US Tariff Policies - From late last year to the first quarter of this year, concerns about the US imposing gold import tariffs led to large - scale arbitrage trading, pushing up the price difference between COMEX gold and London gold. Similar arbitrage transactions have occurred multiple times since November 2024. [23] - In the third quarter of this year, a similar story of cross - market price differences in precious metals repeated. In July, the premium of COMEX futures over London spot in the gold, silver, platinum, and palladium markets widened rapidly due to concerns that the US might extend copper import tariff measures to precious metals. [26] 3. Broad Monetary Expectations Boost Precious Metals Valuation and Investment Demand 3.1 Q3 Real Interest Rate Decline Boosts Gold Valuation - In August, the enhanced expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut pushed down the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate, thereby boosting the valuation of gold. Although the non - farm payroll report in early August was far below expectations, the lack of a clear signal from the Fed and the time interval between FOMC meetings limited the increase in precious metals prices. [33] - During the period of increasing interest - rate cut expectations, the US dollar index remained resilient, with a limited depreciation range. Except for the Swedish krona, the other five major currencies depreciated against the US dollar in Q3 2025, with the Japanese yen having the largest depreciation. [35] 3.2 The Fed's Monetary Easing Expectation is the Main Cause of the Decline in Real Interest Rates - The mid - to long - term decline in the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds is mainly driven by the Fed's interest - rate cut and easing expectations. At the September FOMC meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Market expectations indicate that the Fed will cut interest rates 1.728 times by the end of this year and 4.317 times by the end of 2026. [41] - The dot - plot of the September FOMC meeting shows that most Fed officials expect the Fed to cut interest rates twice this year and once each in 2026 and 2027. Compared with June, the expected number of interest - rate cuts has increased due to the Fed's shift towards the employment side in balancing inflation and employment. [45] - The Fed's September economic forecast shows an upward revision of the GDP growth rate forecast for 2025 - 2027, a downward revision of the unemployment rate forecast for 2026 and 2027, and an upward revision of the PCE forecast, reflecting the Fed officials' increased concern about inflation and reduced concern about the economy. [49] 3.3 The Fed's Broad Monetary Policy Still Has Room for Strengthening - In the fourth quarter, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury real interest rate are expected to decline further, which will continue to boost the valuation of precious metals. The Fed's interest - rate cut and possible suspension of balance - sheet reduction are likely to be further strengthened due to increased economic downward pressure in the US and the expected increase in the number of Fed officials favorable to Trump. [51] - The US economy may face greater downward pressure in the fourth quarter and 2026, as evidenced by the cooling of the employment market and the negative impact of trade tariffs on the economy. The Fed's independence is being challenged through institutional and personnel interventions, and there is also the issue of fiscal coercion. [53][63] - Since 2025, global gold investment demand has increased significantly, but there was a net outflow in May. The uncertainty brought about by Trump's policies has increased the demand for gold investment and allocation, but the "90 - day suspension period" of the "reciprocal tariff" policy and the cooling of uncertainty have led to a partial withdrawal of investment demand. [73][75] 4. Central Bank Gold Purchases as a Support - Central bank gold purchases have shown a slowdown this year. From the perspective of the fourth quarter and 2026, central bank gold purchases will act as a support rather than the core driving force for price increases. Central banks are expected to continue to support the gold market, with a concave - shaped demand curve that is more sensitive to price declines. [81] - Long - term, the relationship between central bank gold purchases and gold prices is asymmetric. Central banks are more likely to increase purchases when prices fall, and the inhibitory effect on price increases is weaker than the boosting effect on price increases when prices fall. [82] - As of July, the Polish central bank was the largest gold purchaser in 2025, but its gold purchases slowed down in the second half of the year. Many central banks, including those of Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, and Turkey, maintained a good demand for gold. [89] - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, most central banks expect to increase their gold reserves and reduce their US dollar reserves in the next five years. In the next 12 months, 95% of central banks expect the global central bank's gold reserves to continue to increase. [90][91][98] 5. Precious Metals Market Outlook 5.1 Q4 2025 Outlook: Reaching New Highs and Maintaining Strength - In terms of influencing factors, the decline in the US dollar index and the US Treasury real interest rate has boosted the valuation of precious metals. The rise in the precious metals market in the first half of the year was mainly due to hedging demand and interest - rate cut expectations. Central bank gold purchases provided support, and market supply - demand imbalances in the first quarter also contributed to the rise. Gold entered a consolidation phase from late April to mid - August and broke through after late August. [119] - The demand for silver is weaker than that for gold. Industrial silver demand has stagnated, and the underdeveloped investment channels in the domestic market have limited investment demand. However, the deviation of the gold - to - silver ratio and the small market size of silver have created trading opportunities. [120] - The long - term upward cycle of gold is not over, and any price adjustment should be seen as a buying opportunity. In the fourth quarter, investment demand will shift, and the price of London gold is expected to reach the $4000/ounce area, with support at $3600/ounce. The expected operating range of London silver in the fourth quarter is $42 - 50/ounce. [2][3][121]

南华期货2025年度纯苯苯乙烯四季度展望 ——供需转弱，估值难有修复 戴一帆 投资咨询证号：Z0015428 黄思婕 从业资格证号：F03130744 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 第1章观点概要 【核心观点】四季度纯苯供应端国产、进口双增，需求端非苯乙烯下游需求并无支撑，而苯乙烯链条需求预 期转差，纯苯将持续过剩，自身估值难以修复，甚至有进一步压缩空间，也将拖累苯乙烯价格重心较难上 移。苯乙烯方面，供应端大装置延长检修时间+多套在产装置降负，9月苯乙烯供应继续收紧，预计到10月中 下旬新装置投产兑现后供应持续增多。需求端维持淡季不淡，旺季难旺的预期。平衡表看9-11月苯乙烯将维 持紧平衡，但自身高库存外加上游纯苯的拖累整体易跌难涨。 【策略展望】价格区间判断:BZ(5500,6300);EB(6500,7300) 策略：单边考虑逢高空，品种间逢低做扩纯苯苯乙烯价差 【风险提示】1、地缘政治影响油价波动；2、预期外减产；3、宏观政策扰动 第2章行情回顾 2025年一季度苯乙烯市场表现为先涨后跌，上涨与下跌的主导因素都是原料纯苯。 二季度苯乙烯价格震荡运行，几次大的拉涨 ...

南华期货2025年度焦煤焦炭四季度展望 ——远端预期改善，持货意愿增强 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 第一章 观点概要 【核心观点】四季度，在"反内卷"与"查超产"政策约束下，国内矿山开工率面临理论上限，焦煤供应弹性受 限。与此同时，2026年作为"十五五"规划开局之年，远端市场预期明显改善，今年冬储规模有望优于去年， 进而对煤焦价格形成阶段性支撑。然而，煤焦价格的反弹高度与持续性，最终取决于下游钢材端的供需平衡 表能否实现"软着陆"。理想路径是钢厂基于利润收缩的预判，通过提前检修减产，主动缓和钢材库存压力，从 而为产业链赢得良性上涨空间。反之，若钢厂生产调节滞后，终端需求萎缩将加剧成材库存矛盾，触发黑色 产业链负反馈风险，进而反向制约煤价反弹高度。 【策略展望】焦煤主力合约震荡区间（1100，1300），焦炭主力合约震荡区间（1550,1800）；单边以震荡 思路对待，套利关注焦煤1-5月间反套，建议入场区间（-70，-60） 【风险提示】"查超产"政策不及预期；终端需求不及预期；海外经济衰退风险； 第二章 行情回顾 上半 ...

01合约参考运行区间：螺纹（2900-3300），热卷（3100-3500） 2025年9月30日 南华期货钢材四季度展望 ——曙光微露，动能欠乏 1 观点概要 需求端：地产端量价企稳仍需时间，传导至开发投资端滞后性显著，对应地产耗钢需求持续疲软。基建 方面，新能源新增装机抢装潮已过，而狭义基建在化债背景下资金面偏紧，加上"十四五"收官阶段新项目有 限，整体用钢需求难有起色。制造业内需受"反内卷"政策导向影响，加之设备更新、以旧换新等政策效应渐 退，三季度以来已逐步呈现走弱迹象。外需方面，间接出口因中国产品性价比优势和海外降息潜在支撑，预 计仍具韧性；直接出口虽受海外需求带动，但更多受成本替代逻辑驱动，与国内价格呈"跷跷板"效应。随着价 格优势收窄、新接订单一般以及去年四季度高基数效应的显现，今年四季度直接出口的高增长态势恐难持 续。鉴于去年同期基数较高，四季度钢材总消费同比增速或将显著放缓。 供给端："反内卷" 政策虽为长期方向，但目前对钢铁行业尚未产生实质影响，不过市场对供给端 "政策 底" 的预期正逐步形成。当前行业高供应与需求承接乏力的矛盾已显现，后续或面临负反馈减产压力；但与此 同时，原料端价格底部 ...

2025年9月30日 南华期货白糖四季度展望 ——过剩周期延续 熊市困局难破 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章：观点概要 2025年上半年白糖市场宽幅震荡，可以拆分为三个阶段，郑糖波动大致区间5600-6100元/吨，原糖波动 区间在16.2-19.76美分/磅。市场主要围绕24/25年度印度糖供应变化、出口，中国进口糖浆及预混粉限制，中 国糖供应变化，以及25/26年度巴西估产、印度、泰国估产变化展开。 展望2025年下半年，市场的关注重点将围绕巴西25/26榨季产量变化，印度、泰国25/26榨季估产及产量 落地情况，印度出口预期变化，国内国产糖消费及库存变化、25/26榨季国产糖产量预估变化、进口糖及糖浆 预拌粉进口节奏及政策变化。整体看，由于印度泰国增产预期打的比较足，当前糖价被压制的过低，而巴西 存在一定的减产倾向，因此在三季度市场可能会先去交易巴西减产从而抬升糖价，国内糖价在5300一带是存 在一定支撑的，海外市场则会在15.2美分受到依托，而随着巴西交易的结束，市场供应重新回到亚洲地区 时，盘面的压力又会随之而来。 四季度SR26 ...

股指期货日报 重要资讯 1、 9月份制造业采购经理指数（制造业PMI）为49.8%，较8月上升0.4个百分点，实现连续两个月回升；非 制造业商务活动指数为50%，处于临界点，整体运行平稳；综合PMI产出指数保持扩张。 2、距离美国联邦政府关门还剩1天，国会两党就拨款问题举行的关键谈判失败。据路透社报道，美国联邦政 府的现有资金将于当地时间9月30日午夜正式耗尽，为避免政府关门，当地时间9月29日，美国总统特朗普与 国会两党领袖在白宫进行会谈，讨论临时拨款法案以化解危机。 3、美国总统特朗普宣布将对进口软木原木及木材征收10%关税，并对进口橱柜、浴室柜及软包木制品加征 25%关税。新关税将于10月14日起生效，部分税率将在明年1月1日起进一步上调。 2025年9月30日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 关注节后外围变量情况 市场回顾 今日股指走势延续强势，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨0.45%。从资金面来看，两市成交额上涨199.49亿 元。期指方面，各品种均缩量上涨。 核心观点 本周两个交易日股市走势整体偏强，内部政策提振为主因，今日公布的PMI数据 ...

南华期货油脂产业周报 ——阿根廷结束低价竞争，油脂未来依然有供应缩紧预期 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 美国生物柴油政策不明，市场等待美国最终政策敲定。 棕榈油方面，马来西亚9月提前进入减产季，印尼天气产量正常增产，B40计划预计年底有赶进度的可 能，支持产地报价。 豆油方面巴西大豆播种进度较快，同比高于去年同期，全球大豆供应依然宽松，中美贸易前景不确定， 但上周阿根廷大豆的购买可以弥补部分美豆缺口，国内豆油供应紧张兑现时间后移。 菜油方面，加拿大新季产量乐观，中加关系是市场关注的最热焦点，与大豆不同的是，菜油供应仍有其 它渠道可以补充，加上澳菜籽进口窗口或打开，有望弥补部分加菜籽缺口，但考虑到澳籽产量，想要完全替 代加菜籽供应的可能性有限，菜油供应紧张的预期较强。 综上，我们认为油脂国内驱动不足，未来空间依靠产地利好驱动发力，短期盘面整理运行。关注中美、 中加关系和棕榈油产地去库进度及B40计划进程。策略上可关注菜籽油15正套、棕榈油01逢低做多的机会。 马来西亚棕榈油精炼ol ...

南华镍&不锈钢2025四季度展望 ——底气渐足，随势而动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F03138675 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 一、核心观点 1.1核心观点 三季度镍不锈钢行情震荡偏强为主，产业链各环节成本均有不同程度的上移，底部支撑较为坚挺。在此基础 上，产业链与宏观层面的消息政策反复扰动风险偏好。展望四季度，基本面上印尼镍矿政策仍是最大变量 ——印尼能源部ESDM一期发布对190家矿业公司制裁，责令进行环保优化，印尼林业组织接管Weda Bay镍 矿产区等消息均在推升镍矿供给端扰动情绪；叠加10月印尼审批次年镍矿配额在即，整体矿端基准价以及升 水将稳中偏强运行，继而提高镍价重心。此外四季度新能源领域或将持续偏强运行——反内卷风气自三季度 以来不断发酵，新能源整体重心大幅上移，我们认为四季度整体新能源领域品种重心在政策托底前提下向下 空间有限；此外刚果钴矿出口禁令延长，并且发布25年四季度以及2026年出口配额，预计四季度钴价仍有上 涨空间并对MHP钴系数起到有利支撑。 不锈钢方面四季度仍需关注需求端回暖趋势，镍铁的持 ...

2025年9月30日 铁矿石2025年四季度展望 ——海外需求主导，上下空间有限 周甫翰（投资咨询证号：Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 核心观点 2025年四季度在供应增加、出口的高铁水支撑下，铁矿石基本面尚可。预计价格趋势性不强，维持震荡偏 强格局。国内需求整体维稳，海外需求偏强，但做多需要关注海外风险。 四季度价格区间普氏62：【90，115】，铁矿石指数为【700, 900】。 产业风险管理建议：区间操作 风险点：经济刺激不及预期，关税政策超预期，铁矿投产超预期 2025年上半年铁矿石价格整体先涨后跌，交易逻辑跟着宏观预期发生了变化。 一、1月15-2月21日：悲观预期扭转，供应扰动支撑价格向上 这段时间黑色整体跟随股市。在12月的政治局和中央经济工作会议后，市场进入了短暂的宏观真空期， 铁矿石价格指数在剥离掉基本面因素后，整体与沪深300指数走势一致，日内分时走势也几乎一致。市场情绪 在1月中旬企稳。这段时间国内外宏观情绪共振向上。美国经济数据偏强加核心cpi低于预期，商品价格普涨 反映二次通胀的预期。根据特朗普第一任期，市场对特朗普第二任期有减税和经济向好的交易 ...

南华期货2025年度有色金属锌四度展望 ——内外格局分化，破局契机将至 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 林嘉玮（从业资格证号：F03145451） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 .. 观点：三季度锌外强内弱格局愈发明显。宏观上，初期反内卷等国内叙事对有色金属价格进行提振，国内经 济弱修复。而后美联储降息落地，后续降息预期加强，对金属板块形成上行驱动。 但伦锌沪锌两者走势大相径庭，基本面上的差距使得伦锌重心上移，而沪锌却被压制持续筑底。一方面受海 外冶炼厂减停产，而国内开工率受利润驱动维持强势影响，造成海外库存持续去化。另一方面，内外比价走 弱且仍有趋势化现象，国内出口窗口迟迟难以打开，造成我国精炼锌过剩难以消耗。 预测区间：后续沪锌仍处于空头逻辑，但下行幅度受伦锌支撑从而有限，预计走势属于偏弱震荡，预测四季 度运行区间在21580-22300元/吨。 策略：目前至10月底若海外库存尚未显性化且降息预期不改则内外正套逻辑不变。出口窗口打开或逼近则以 内外反套为主。同时区间内高抛低吸，以及逢高卖出套保或卖出虚值看涨期权。 风险提示：全球宏观环境，中美关税，供给端扰 ...