南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年11月20日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强压力位：100000 | 48.6% | 84.1% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 推荐套保比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 远月期货合约 | 买入 | 10% | | | 产成品价格无相 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划，担 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产 | LC2601-P-80000 | 卖出 | 10% | | | 关性 | 心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上涨导 | 计划需买入对应生产计 ...

2025年11月20日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 股指期货日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 市场避险情绪浓厚，股指高开低走 市场回顾 今日股指高开低走，大盘股指相对抗跌，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.51%。从资金面来看，两市成交额 减少177.20亿元。期指方面，IM缩量下跌，其余品种均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 英伟达送惊喜，上季营收加速增长62%，本季指引再超预期。三季度总营收两年来首次同比加快增长，和 数据中心收入齐创单季新高，后者同比增66%、环比增近25%；四季度营收指引中值同比增65%，毛利率料 为75%、六个季度内首次同比提升。黄仁勋称，Blackwell芯片销量远超预期，训练和推理的计算需求均呈指 数级增长，股价盘后一度涨6%。 2. 美联储会议纪要暴严重分歧：多人认为不适合12月降息，一些人担心股市无序下跌。 核心观点 英伟达Q3财报超预期，美科技股走强，提振科技板块情绪，受此影响今日股指均高开，且中小盘股指相对较 强，但由于目前资金止盈意愿较强加上中日紧张关系尚未缓和，指数开盘后均承压走弱，市场避险情绪浓 厚，大小盘风格切换，具有防御属性的大盘股 ...

| 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 支撑位：8000 | 27.9% | 72.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划，担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少，企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | | 出期货合约锁定 | 场内/场外期权 | 买入看跌期权 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/20 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策态度 盘面点评： 周四期债早盘冲高回落，午后有所回升，但TL回升乏力。T、TF收涨，TL收跌，TS接近平盘。资金面恢复宽 松，DR001回落至1.36%附近。公开市场逆回购3000亿，净回笼100亿。 重要资讯： 1.一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）分别维持在3%和3.5%不变。 2.消息称住建部等多部门正在衡量一系列选项，包括首次在全国范围内对新增个人住房贷款提供贴息。其他正 在酝酿的措施还包括提高房贷借款人的个人所得税专项扣除，以及进一步降低住房交易契税等。 行情研判： 今日 A股高开低走，债市几乎未受影响。日内影响债市的主要是有关房地产政策的传言，导致早盘债市回 落，超长债受影响更为明显。三季度以来房地产市场再度转弱，我们认为传言并非空穴来风，相信各项政策 正在酝酿之中，未来将择机推出。对市场的影响主要在于短期情绪，即便政策未来推出也难以扭转房地产市 场的基本面，对债市的利空有限，利率中长期仍需保持低位。操作上，中期多单继续持有。 国债期货日度数据 | ...

LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/11/20 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮 期货从业证号：F03140197 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 4000-4500 | 12.86% | 1.82% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空PG期货来锁定利润，弥补 企业的生产成本 | PG2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低 ...

丙烯产业风险管理日报 2025/11/20 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮 期货从业证号：F03140197 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 丙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 丙烯 | 5700-6200 | 0.121 | 0.5432 | source： 同花顺,南华研究 丙烯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心丙烯价格下跌 | 多 | 为防止存货跌价损失，可根据企业库 存情况，逢高空配丙烯期货来锁定利 | PL2603 | 卖出 | 50% | 6100-6200 | | | | | 润 | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期 ...

南华贵金属日报：黄金&白银：降息预期降温 关注晚间9月非农补发 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月20日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格震荡微涨，尽管英伟达财报公布略高于预期，美联储降息预期仍有下降，但近期美股VIX和 美债MOVE指数双双走高，比特币持续下挫，反映股债市场的波动恐慌加剧，亦增加资金对贵金属与美元现 金层面应对金融市场动荡的避险需求。目前市场聚焦于周四晚间公布的美9月非农就业报告。然后由于美国10 月非农不发布、11月报告意外延后至美联储12月FOMC会后发布，数据缺失下令降息预期降温。周四凌晨公 布的美联储会议纪要反映内部严重分歧，多人认为不适合12月降息，一些人担心股市无序下跌；随后"新美 联储通讯社"表示，可能占微弱多数的决策者对12月降息感到不安。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收4078.3美 元/盎司，+0.29%；美白银2512合约收报于51.065美元/盎司，+1.08%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约收937元/ 克，+1.09%；SHFE白银2512合约收12148元/千克，+2.19%。 【降息预期与基金 ...

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the actual economy. The absence of October non - farm data and the Fed's divided views have cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are showing a marginal slowdown, and the policy support and its effectiveness are key concerns [1]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, with many opposing a December rate cut. The US October non - farm data is not released, and the November report is postponed, leading to a cooling of the rate - cut expectation. Overseas, focus on the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, and domestically, pay attention to policy support [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Affected by the non - farm data and the Fed's differences, the US dollar index is strong, and the rate - cut expectation has cooled. Follow US November economic data, the next Fed chair candidate, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange. The RMB may get some support from seasonal effects [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.07 [3]. - **Stock Index**: Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, which may drive up the domestic technology sector. The index style may switch to small - and medium - cap stocks in the short term. The index is expected to oscillate with upper pressure and lower support [3][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Although the A - share rebound and other factors have affected the bond market, the medium - term fundamentals still support it. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be established on dips [5][6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures price oscillates, waiting for new drivers. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the short - term is expected to be weakly oscillating. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can take profit on the 12 - 02 reverse spread [7][8][9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The performance of different commodities varies. For precious metals, the short - term is affected by the unclear rate - cut prospect, while the medium - and long - term is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases. Other commodities are also influenced by their respective supply - demand, cost, and policy factors [12][15]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: The rate - cut expectation has cooled. Focus on the US September non - farm employment report. In the short term, the price may continue to oscillate and adjust, and dips can be used to build long positions. The long - term price is expected to rise [12][13][15]. - **Copper**: The delay of non - farm employment data makes the copper price lack elasticity. The short - term is mainly about post - decline repair. Pay attention to the support at 86000 and the pressure at 87000. Downstream enterprises can use a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - and long - term and oscillate in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weakly running, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the smelting end may reduce production in November. Observe the inventory changes and the bottom space at the end of the month [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for clear signals. The supply of nickel ore may be affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the demand for nickel - iron is weak. Stainless steel has high inventory and low demand [20][21]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating narrowly. Due to the shortage of concentrates, the supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about chasing high prices. The downstream replenishment willingness is low, and the upside space is doubtful. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips. Polysilicon has weak short - term fundamentals, and it is suitable to short on rallies [25][26]. - **Lead**: The bottom space is small. The supply is tight, and the import window is open. It is expected to oscillate [27][28]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The black metal market is affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, supply - demand relationships, and cost. The overall is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of negative feedback [29]. Summary by Directory - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar's supply - demand balance is marginally improving, and hot - rolled coil has high inventory and needs to reduce production to destock. Pay attention to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [29][30]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and there is a shortage of deliverable products. Wait for the basis to be repaired and then consider shorting on rallies [31][33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the short - term may face adjustment pressure. The medium - and long - term is supported by policies and winter storage demand. Consider building long positions when the price falls to the lower limit of the range [34][35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They continue to accumulate inventory. The demand is expected to decline, and they are expected to oscillate weakly [36][37]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The energy and chemical market is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Different products have different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has cooled. It is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 in the short - and medium - term. Pay attention to geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The cost fluctuates greatly, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The supply is slightly decreasing, the demand of PDH is in a loss state, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals are neutral to positive, but the valuation is high [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The aromatics blending logic is strengthened, and they are expected to oscillate strongly with the cost. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and macro - dynamics. The PTA processing fee can be operated within the range of 200 - 290 [44][47][48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Consider taking profit on short positions and switch to selling call options. The demand is expected to be stable in November and weaken seasonally in December. The supply may accumulate inventory, and the long - term is under pressure [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract is expected to be weakly running. The port pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is recommended to hold short call options and conduct reverse spreads [51][52]. - **PP**: It is oscillating at the bottom. The supply pressure may be relieved if more devices stop, and the demand is good in the short term. It is not advisable to short further in the short term and can consider going long on dips [53][55]. - **PE**: The fundamental driving force is insufficient. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited in the long term. The downward space is limited, but the upward pressure exists [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly. Pure benzene may have more negative feedback, and styrene has high inventory and limited rebound height [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported by factors such as supply reduction and demand improvement [60][61][62]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is small. Pay attention to the winter storage willingness. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the long - term demand may be affected by seasonal factors [63][64][65]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is mainly cost - priced and has limited upward elasticity. Glass has high inventory and downward pressure. Caustic soda has high supply and weak demand in the long term [65][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The futures price centers are moving down. Pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply, and offset paper is affected by tender prices [68][69]. - **Log**: Continue to pay attention to shorting opportunities and the 01 - 03 reverse spread. The spot price decline drives the futures price down, and the inventory is increasing [70][71].

重要资讯 1. 美国10月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数23.2万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非 农"ADP周度就业数据：截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 股指期货日报 2025年11月19日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 外围扰动下股指走势分化，大盘股指终结三连跌 市场回顾 今日股指走势分化，大盘股指收涨，中小盘股指收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2001.59亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC缩量下跌， IM放量下跌。 2.外交部：如日方拒不撤回涉台错误言论 一切后果由日方承担。 核心观点 今日股指走势分化，受中日关系紧张影响，具有防御属性的大盘股指表现较优，军工及水产板块领涨。期指 成交量加权平均基差则与标的股指表现相反，IF、IH贴水加深，IC、IM贴水收敛，市场资金博弈特征延续。 当前资金止盈意愿增强对股指形成压制，政策利好预期对股指形成支撑，短期股指预计维持上有压力下有支 撑的震荡格局，中日关系继续僵持的情况下，大盘股指或延续优势。关注本周将恢复公布的美国经济数据及 英伟达Q ...

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——EG供需承压格局难改 2025/11/19 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3750-4200 | 15.19% | 26.4% | | PX | 6300-7100 | 14.65% | 37.0% | | PTA | 4300-4900 | 13.86% | 23.8% | | 瓶片 | 5400-6000 | 10.84% | 27.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 【核心矛盾】 总体来看，乙二醇需求端变化不大，聚酯需求11月预计维持在91%附近，12月起随季节性走弱。近期供 应端装置意外较多，后续累库斜率有所缓和，在价格上与11月9日的周报观点一致，动力煤走势偏强的背景下 成本端支撑加强，表现为3900下方继续破位下跌难度变大。但长期来看，累库斜率放缓与兑现推迟均为节奏 问 ...