1、前置触发事件：最高法院终局裁决，核心关税体系全面作废 南华宏观专题 —— 美国关税新政的影响 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月26日 正文 一、美国关税新政再起 我们认为，近期关税政策的剧烈波动，核心触发点是美国最高法院2026年2月20日的终局司法裁决，特 朗普政府在核心关税框架被司法推翻的当天，紧急启动法律替代方案，随后72小时内完成税率调整、执行落 地、地缘绑定的关税豁免，叠加2月23日-26日的司法执行、国际博弈、政策配套等一系列最新动作，形成了 完整的政策链条。对于本次最高法院裁决并非特朗普贸易保护主义的终结，只是限制了其最灵活的单边关税 工具。特朗普政府正通过多法律路径重建关税框架，再通胀风险与政策不确定性仍显著抬升。全流程更新与 深度分析细节如下： 美国当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院以6:3的投票结果作出终局判决，核心结论明确：认定特朗 普政府此前全部依托《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施、无国会明确专项授权的普遍性关税措施，属于 总统越权行为，违反美国宪法 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月26日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 宽幅震荡：12-20万 | 107.8% | 95.1% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周 ...

【南华观点】特朗普 2026 年第二任期首次国情咨文演讲，不仅是其化解执政危机、为国 会中期选举造势的核心政治动作，更是决定 2026 年全球宏观定价逻辑、大类资产走势与 跨境资本流动的核心风向标，其政策表态直接牵动美元信用、全球贸易体系与金融市场风 险偏好。本次演讲是在特朗普执政多重风险集中爆发的背景下落地，核心关税政策被美国 最高法院釜底抽薪式否决、支持率跌至第二任期谷底、政府部分停摆与两党极化加剧，叠 加中期选举的关键时间窗口，决定了本次演讲的政策表态兼具危机对冲与政治博弈的双重 属性，也为全球金融市场埋下了短期情绪波动与长期不确定性的双重伏笔。演讲核心的金 融相关政策中，最受市场关注的关税体系重构，特朗普正面回应司法危机，给出以《1974 年贸易法》为核心的替代法律框架，推出 150 天 15% 的全球临时进口关税，配套 301、 232 条款构建长期关税体系，短期对冲了财政收入缺口，却并未消除政策的长期不可预测 性，临时关税的到期风险、专项调查的边界模糊，将延后企业资本开支、扰动全球供应链 修复，加剧市场对通胀反弹的担忧，进而打乱美联储货币政策的宽松节奏，为美元指数、 美债收益率带来持续波动压力。与 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the lithium carbonate market, including futures data, spot data, basis and warehouse receipt data, and cost - profit analysis, aiming to help investors understand the market situation and potential investment opportunities [2][19][26][37] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Data - The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 107.6% and a historical percentile of 95.7% over 3 years [2] - The main contract's closing price is 166,480 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2360 yuan (1.44%) and a weekly increase of 29,140 yuan (21.22%). The trading volume, open interest, and other indicators of the main contract and weighted index contract also showed significant changes [4] - The CME lithium hydroxide futures prices for different months in 2026 showed varying degrees of increase, and the LME lithium hydroxide futures also had corresponding trading data [14][17] Spot Data - In the lithium battery industry chain, various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery materials showed price changes. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) was 5400 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 575 yuan (11.92%) [19] - The price differences between different lithium products also changed. For example, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 3500 yuan/ton, while the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed [22] Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the lithium carbonate main continuous contract and near - month contract showed seasonal characteristics. The basis of different brands of lithium carbonate also had corresponding quotes [28][29][30] - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 330 to 38,525, and the warehouse receipts of different warehouses also changed [33] Cost - Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and lithium hydroxide production profits by different methods showed different trends over time. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also had corresponding data [38][39]

正文 《国情咨文（State of the Union Address）》，是美国总统依据《美利坚合众国宪法》第二条第三款 的法定要求，于每年年初向美国国会参众两院联席会议发表的年度施政纲领演讲与国家治理报告。它既是美 国行政分支向立法分支履行法定政务通报义务的核心制度安排，也是总统面向全美公众与全球传递政策信号 的最高规格政治活动。其内容通常涵盖过去一年的执政成果总结、内政外交核心挑战研判，以及本年度主推 的立法议程、预算方案、民生与国家安全核心施政优先事项。除法定通报功能外，它更是美国总统推动国会 立法、凝聚国内政治共识、开展公众政治动员的关键载体，是全球观察美国国家政策走向与战略布局的核心 权威窗口。历经两百余年演变，除新任总统就职当年通常发表国会联席会议特别演讲外，历任总统均会按惯 例发表这一年度演讲，如今更通过电视、网络渠道实现全球同步传播，其影响力早已超越美国国界。 北京时间2026年2月25日10点，美国前总统、现任总统特朗普发表了其第二任期内的首次国情咨文演 讲。本次演讲时长近110分钟，创下美国国情咨文演讲时长的历史纪录，官方主题定为"美国250年：强大、 繁荣与受尊重"，精准紧扣美国建国2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report regarding industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - The RMB exchange rate has shown a strong trend, driven by domestic industrial progress, geopolitical stances, policy coordination, and a weakening US dollar. The long - term upward trend of RMB is supported by the continuous improvement of domestic industrial chain autonomy [2]. - Stock indices are expected to be strong, supported by positive liquidity and sentiment, with the spring rally and policy - favorable expectations [5]. - Treasury bonds' upward space should be viewed with caution, with a suggestion to hold a small amount of T2606 mid - line long positions and wait for short - term layout opportunities [6]. - Container shipping futures (European routes) are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with the market weighing macro - level positives against the physical market fundamentals [10]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper is expected to first consolidate and then rise; aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate; zinc is expected to fluctuate strongly; nickel - stainless steel is expected to maintain high - level volatility; tin is expected to maintain high - level consolidation; lead is expected to fluctuate [15][16][17][19][20][21]. - For oilseeds, the market is expected to focus on short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities. Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [23][25]. - For energy and oil and gas, high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong. Asphalt is expected to have small fluctuations [27][28]. - For precious metals, platinum and palladium are expected to have a long - term bullish trend, while gold and silver are strategically bullish, with silver focusing on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio [31][34]. - For chemicals, pulp futures can try a small - amount low - buying strategy, and offset - printing paper futures can maintain range trading. Pure benzene and styrene should focus on geopolitical trends, and LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics. Methanol should be temporarily observed, and plastics and PP are supported by cost. Rubber is expected to maintain a strong trend, and urea can be bought at low levels. Glass and soda ash's supply expectations may change [35][36][38][40][41][44][50][54][56][60]. - For black commodities, rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly; iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize; coking coal and coke have different trends, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly [64][67][70][71]. - For agricultural and soft commodities, the pig market has weak post - holiday demand; cotton is expected to be strong, but the upward space is restricted; sugar has limited upward space; eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term; apples are pressured by weak demand; red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations; logs can be mainly observed [72][75][76][77][87][88][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Market Information**: Includes news such as US tariff adjustments, gold margin and price - limit adjustments, Spring Festival tourism data, AI - related policies, the Iran situation, and Fed officials' statements [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB has appreciated, driven by domestic industrial and geopolitical factors, as well as a weakening US dollar. Export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.95, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.88 [2][4]. - **Stock Indices**: The stock indices opened higher after the Spring Festival, with small - and medium - cap indices performing relatively strongly. They are expected to be strong due to positive liquidity and sentiment [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose on Tuesday, but the upward space should be viewed with caution. T2606 mid - line long positions can be held in small amounts, and short - term chasing of highs should be avoided [6]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The futures market showed a pattern of rising and then falling on the first trading day after the holiday. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, with multiple positive factors and some negative factors [8][9][10]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper rose slightly after the holiday. It is expected to first consolidate and then rise, and a horizontal arbitrage strategy can be considered [13][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are expected to consolidate. Aluminum should pay attention to post - holiday demand and the Iran situation; alumina is bearish in the long term; cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum [16][17]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices followed the external market to make up for the increase. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but beware of the negative feedback of tariff news on the market [17]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel rose on the first trading day after the holiday. They are expected to maintain high - level volatility, and attention should be paid to the resumption of work in the downstream and US tariff disturbances [17][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices recovered their decline and are expected to maintain high - level consolidation, paying attention to the approval progress in Indonesia and the actual resumption of production in Myanmar [20]. - **Lead**: Lead prices had a large divergence after the opening, and it is recommended to wait and see. It is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. Oils and Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The US tariff policy may affect China's soybean procurement. The supply pressure is expected to return in the second quarter. The domestic soybean meal market is short - term long and medium - term bearish, and attention should be paid to short - selling and reverse - arbitrage opportunities [22][23]. - **Oils**: Oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Palm oil is in the production - reduction season, but exports are declining; soybean oil has cost support; rapeseed oil supply is expected to be loose [24][25]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure is weak, while the low - sulfur marine fuel oil is relatively strong due to rigid buying support [27]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices fluctuated slightly. The spot market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices during the holiday, but the actual transaction is not satisfactory. It may face a decline if the demand fails to meet expectations after the holiday [28]. Precious Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum and palladium are expected to be bullish in the long term, supported by factors such as tariff policies and the Iran situation. Attention should be paid to relevant investigations and new tariff measures [30][31]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold and silver prices adjusted downward. They are strategically bullish, and silver should focus on the opportunity to repair the gold - silver ratio. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and Fed meetings [33][34]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Printing Paper**: Pulp futures are expected to continue to rise, and a small - amount low - buying strategy can be considered. Offset - printing paper futures are expected to fluctuate, and range trading can be maintained [35][36]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene prices rose after the holiday. Attention should be paid to geopolitical trends, and a long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is mainly affected by geopolitics, especially the Iran - US negotiation. The domestic supply and demand situation has little change [39][40]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices rose, mainly due to concerns about the Iran - US conflict and a significant reduction in imports. It is recommended to wait and see [41]. - **Plastics and PP**: Plastic and PP prices rose following the oil price. They are supported by cost and macro - factors. Attention should be paid to mid - stream inventory accumulation and downstream demand release [42][44]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to maintain a strong trend. Natural rubber is in the low - production season, and synthetic rubber has cost support. Attention should be paid to post - holiday demand and inventory digestion [45][50][51]. - **Urea**: Urea prices rose, driven by the high price of the latest Indian urea import tender. It is recommended to buy at low levels [53][54]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Soda ash is expected to have a complex supply - demand situation, with potential weakening of demand and possible production reduction. Glass is in a supply - demand weak situation, and high inventory is a risk [55][56][57][60]. - **Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported by cost and supply - demand factors. Attention should be paid to the Iran - US negotiation and the supply - demand situation [62]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils**: Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to fluctuate weakly, with high supply pressure and slow - starting demand [64]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to stop falling and stabilize. The supply improvement needs to be observed, and the demand is expected to increase with the resumption of work in steel mills [65][67]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal is relatively weak, while coke has a first - round price increase. Attention should be paid to the resumption of work in mines and steel mills [68][70]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to fluctuate weakly, affected by the high inventory of downstream steel products [71]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Pigs**: The post - holiday pig market has weak demand, and a selling - call - option strategy can be considered [72][73]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are strong, but the upward space is restricted by the high domestic - foreign cotton price difference. A long - position strategy can be considered after a pullback [74][75]. - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar is under pressure, and the upward space of sugar prices is limited [76]. - **Eggs**: Eggs are expected to be stable in the short term and rise in the medium term, affected by high inventory and weak consumption in the short term [77]. - **Apples**: Apple prices are pressured by weak post - holiday demand, but the decline space is limited due to delivery contradictions [87]. - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to face pressure and maintain low - level fluctuations, with attention paid to post - holiday demand [88]. - **Logs**: Logs can be mainly observed, with a relatively neutral valuation. A small - amount low - buying strategy and a small - amount 03 - 05 reverse - arbitrage strategy can be considered [89][90].

金融期货早评 宏观：关税风波再起 【市场资讯】1）美联储理事沃勒：多位 CEO 称 AI 将致大量裁员，3 月利率决议取决于 2 月就业数据。2）特朗普关税—①欧洲议会暂停批准欧美贸易协议。②特朗普警告不遵守与 美国贸易协定的国家将面临更高关税。③美众议院议长约翰逊谈关税退税：无先例可循， 将由白宫定夺。④英首相发言人：一切措施都在考虑之中。3）伊朗问题—①特朗普称倾向 于与伊朗达成协议，而非战争。②美特使威特科夫和库什纳将参加新一轮美伊谈判。③美 媒称美军参联会主席警告对伊动武风险极高，易陷长期冲突。4）飞猪发布数据显示，春节 假期国内游订单量再创新高，其中门票订单量同比去年增长超 80%，酒店间夜量同比增长 75%。更长假期还带来节中出游需求的进一步释放，大年初二至初五之间出行的订单量同 比增长约三成。 【南华观点】2026 年春节假期期间，海外金融市场主要围绕 AI 产业变局、地缘政治博弈 及关税政策重构三大主线展开博弈。具体来看：一为 AI 产业主线。AI 产业正经历深度生态 变革，产业深化过程中，行业层级分化持续加剧，核心是盈利逻辑的重新定位；二是地缘 政治主线。地缘政治方面，大国关系是影响市场波动 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given text 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped by 6.31 points, a decline of -0.23%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil variety index having a change of -1.9% and a contribution rate of -0.31%, and the palm oil variety index having a change of -3.63% and a contribution rate of -0.16% [1][2] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell by 18.49 points, a decrease of -0.51%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and iron ore, with the crude oil variety index having a contribution rate of -0.33% and the iron ore variety index having a contribution rate of -0.16% [1][2] - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with the most influential variety being lithium carbonate, contributing 0.52% [1][2] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index declined by 17.69 points, a drop of -1.11%. The most influential variety was crude oil, with a contribution rate of -0.48% [2] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 2.48 points, an increase of 0.23%. The most influential variety was soybean meal, with a contribution rate of 0.27% [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Data Summary | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Volatility | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2723.32 | 2729.62 | -6.31 | -0.23% | 2779.86 | 2723.32 | 56.54 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 2131.41 | 2063.61 | 67.80 | 3.29% | 2203.72 | 2063.61 | 140.11 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3605.09 | 3623.58 | -18.49 | -0.51% | 3667.91 | 3605.09 | 62.83 | | Metal Index NHMI | 7011.05 | 6981.69 | 29.36 | 0.42% | 7126.36 | 6981.69 | 144.67 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1569.97 | 1587.66 | -17.69 | -1.11% | 1598.11 | 1569.97 | 28.15 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 2021.71 | 1990.25 | 31.47 | 1.58% | 2062.45 | 1990.25 | 72.20 | | Black Index NHFI | 2466.17 | 2493.61 | -27.44 | -1.10% | 2493.61 | 2466.17 | 27.44 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1059.62 | 1057.14 | 2.48 | 0.23% | 1061.11 | 1054.59 | 6.52 | | Nanhua Composite Index NHCIMi | 1195.04 | 1210.65 | -15.61 | -1.29% | 1219.72 | 1195.04 | 24.67 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 1018.32 | 1034.36 | -16.04 | -1.55% | 1041.88 | 1018.32 | 23.56 | | Petrochemical Ammonia NHPCI | 925.04 | 938.88 | -13.84 | -1.47% | 942.86 | 925.04 | 17.82 | | Coal Chemical Engineering Index NHCCI | 934.78 | 950.45 | -15.67 | -1.65% | 951.53 | 934.78 | 16.75 | | Black Raw Materials Xinjiang NHFMI | 1024.39 | 1040.92 | -16.53 | -1.59% | 1041.69 | 1024.39 | 17.30 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 680.44 | 689.07 | -8.63 | -1.25% | 689.07 | 680.44 | 8.63 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl | 1234.90 | 1232.08 | 2.83 | 0.23% | 1237.96 | 1230.95 | 7.00 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 940.84 | 928.88 | 11.96 | 1.29% | 941.59 | 928.88 | 12.71 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength and Weakness Arbitrage Data - The report provides the current value, previous value (last week), change, and ranking of the ratio of various Nanhua commodity indices and variety indices. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index is 0.783 (previous value 0.756, change 0.03, ranking 0.992), and the ratio of the industrial products index to the composite index is 1.324 (previous value 1.328, change 0.00, ranking 0.011) [11] 3.3 Nanhua's Sector Indices Weekly Data 3.3.1 Nanhua Industrial Products Index - This week's closing is 3605.09, last week's closing is 3623.58, with a decline of -0.51%. The most influential varieties are crude oil and iron ore. The crude oil variety index has a contribution rate of -0.33%, and the iron ore variety index has a contribution rate of -0.16%. There are 21 commodities in total, 9 rising commodities, and 11 falling commodities [1][2][16] 3.3.2 Nanhua Metal Index - This week's closing is 7011.05, last week's closing is 6981.69, with an increase of 0.42%. The most influential variety is lithium carbonate, contributing 0.52%. There are 13 commodities in total, 8 rising commodities, and 2 falling commodities [1][2][16] 3.3.3 Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index - This week's closing is 1569.97, last week's closing is 1587.66, with a decline of -1.11%. The most influential variety is crude oil, with a contribution rate of -0.48%. There are 20 commodities in total, 7 rising commodities, and 13 falling commodities [2][16] 3.3.4 Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - This week's closing is 1059.62, last week's closing is 1057.14, with an increase of 0.23%. The most influential variety is soybean meal, with a contribution rate of 0.27%. There are 13 commodities in total, 8 rising commodities, and 5 falling commodities [2][16] 3.3.5 Nanhua Black Index - This week's closing is 2466.17, last week's closing is 2493.61, with a decline of -1.10%. The most influential varieties are iron ore, rebar, and coke. The iron ore variety index has a contribution rate of -0.58%, the rebar variety index has a contribution rate of -0.25%, and the coke variety index has a contribution rate of -0.18%. There are 7 commodities in total, 1 rising commodity, and 5 falling commodities [17] 3.3.6 Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index - This week's closing is 2021.71, last week's closing is 1990.25, with an increase of 1.58%. The most influential varieties are lithium carbonate, nickel, and tin. The lithium carbonate variety index has a contribution rate of 0.90%, the nickel variety index has a contribution rate of 0.49%, and the tin variety index has a contribution rate of 0.21%. There are 8 commodities in total, 5 rising commodities, and 2 falling commodities [19] 3.4 Contribution Degree of Each Variety's Daily Change Rate to the Index Change Rate - The report provides the average weekly open interest, month-on-month increase rate, open interest ratio, and other data of various futures varieties, including soybean meal, lithium carbonate, rebar, coking coal, etc. [21]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -1.69% today. All sector indices and theme indices declined, with the Nanhua Precious Metals Index having the largest decline of -2.47% among sector indices and the Energy Index having the largest decline of -2.26% among theme indices. The smallest decline among sector indices was the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index at -0.11%, and the smallest decline among theme indices was the Economic Crops Index at -0.08%. Among single - variety indices of commodity futures, the caustic soda index had the largest increase of 3.46%, and the tin index had the largest decline of -6.19% [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2723.32 today, down 46.86 points or -1.69% from yesterday, with an annualized return rate of 4.84%, an annualized volatility of 13.67%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.35. - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 2131.41, down 53.94 points or -2.47%, with an annualized return rate of 92.90%, an annualized volatility of 30.24%, and a Sharpe ratio of 3.07. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3605.09, down 54.12 points or -1.48%, with an annualized return rate of -7.02%, an annualized volatility of 14.79%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.47. - The Nanhua Metal Index (NHMI) closed at 7011.05, down 99.70 points or -1.40%, with an annualized return rate of 9.58%, an annualized volatility of 14.20%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.67. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1569.97, down 22.07 points or -1.39%, with an annualized return rate of -16.43%, an annualized volatility of 17.25%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.95. - The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) closed at 2021.71, down 37.32 points or -1.81%, with an annualized return rate of 22.10%, an annualized volatility of 17.75%, and a Sharpe ratio of 1.25. - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2466.17, down 11.65 points or -0.47%, with an annualized return rate of -7.00%, an annualized volatility of 16.09%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.43. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1059.62, down 1.20 points or -0.11%, with an annualized return rate of -0.90%, an annualized volatility of 7.57%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.12. - The Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi) closed at 1195.04, down 20.50 points or -1.69%, with an annualized return rate of 0.91%, an annualized volatility of 15.36%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.06. - The Energy Index (NHEI) closed at 1018.32, down 23.56 points or -2.26%, with an annualized return rate of 0.63%, an annualized volatility of 23.54%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03. - The Petrochemical Index (NHPCI) closed at 925.04, down 9.75 points or -1.04%, with an annualized return rate of 2.24%, an annualized volatility of 16.32%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.14. - The Combustible Chemical Index (NHCCI) closed at 934.78, down 11.74 points or -1.24%, with an annualized return rate of 1.16%, an annualized volatility of 15.61%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.07. - The Black Raw Materials Index (NHFM) closed at 1024.39, down 8.62 points or -0.83%, with an annualized return rate of -0.36%, an annualized volatility of 17.06%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.02. - The Building Materials Index (NHBMI) closed at 680.44, down 2.89 points or -0.42%, with an annualized return rate of -0.66%, an annualized volatility of 13.19%, and a Sharpe ratio of -0.05. - The Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOI) closed at 1234.90, down 1.07 points or -0.09%, with an annualized return rate of 0.27%, an annualized volatility of 10.26%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.03. - The Economic Crops Index (NHAECI) closed at 940.84, down 0.75 points or -0.08%, with an annualized return rate of 1.10%, an annualized volatility of 9.91%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.11 [3]. Single - Variety Index of Agricultural Products - Palm oil had a decline of -0.96%, rapeseed oil had a decline of -0.10%, rapeseed had a decline of -0.83%, rapeseed meal had an increase of 0.26%, and live pigs had a decline of -0.35% [8]. Single - Variety Index of Energy and Chemical Sector - Synthetic ammonia had a decline of -1.05%, coal had a decline of -3.00%, polyethylene had a decline of -2.48%, and crude oil had a decline of -3.34% [6][11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the latest data on lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price trends, trading volumes, open interests, and cost - profit analysis, to help investors understand the current situation of the lithium carbonate market [2][20][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 115.2%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 96.3% [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 840 yuan (-0.56%) and a weekly increase of 16,640 yuan (12.53%). The trading volume is 304,798 lots, a daily decrease of 47,079 lots (-13.38%) and a weekly decrease of 226,926 lots (-42.68%). The open interest is 353,975 lots, a daily decrease of 2,556 lots (-0.72%) and a weekly increase of 24,198 lots (7.34%) [4]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME and LME also have relevant lithium hydroxide futures data, including opening prices, highs, lows, last prices, changes, and settlement prices [14]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (3.62%); the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,500 yuan (3.35%) [20]. - **Cell Materials**: The prices of various cell materials also fluctuated. The price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 52,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,090 yuan (2.13%) [20]. - **Price Spreads**: The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract shows certain seasonal fluctuations. The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands also vary, such as - 800 yuan for Shengxin Lithium Energy and 0 yuan for Tianqi Lithium Industry [29][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 37,282 lots, an increase of 1,755 lots from the previous day [34]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and the production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticizing/smelting methods show different trends. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also fluctuate [39][40].