1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the log market are relatively healthy, with low inventory, high daily average outbound volume, and firm spot prices. However, the recovery of shipping volume may suppress the subsequent upward space [2][6]. - The 05 contract is difficult to evaluate before its expiration. From the perspective of the monthly spread structure, short - selling does not have an advantage at present. Future decisions should be based on post - holiday inventory and the firmness of spot prices [7]. - The strategy of going long on dips can be considered, but due to the lack of liquidity, participation should be cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 30th, the national log inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, hitting a new low, while the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, remaining at a relatively high level. It is expected that the outbound volume will significantly decline next week as downstream factories start to have the Spring Festival holiday [2]. - In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine timber in Lanshan area continued to rise last week, and the prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan also increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Traders in Shandong offered relatively firm prices [2]. - Overseas shipping has changed. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were sent from New Zealand, 9 more than the previous period, indicating that the short - term shipping disruptions in New Zealand have basically ended, and the inventory problem may be alleviated in the future [2]. - The announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in the middle of the week showed that most car - board delivery warehouses in the Yangtze River Delta region (excluding Shandong) suspended delivery business, which reduced the implicit cost of buyers taking delivery and boosted their willingness to take delivery on the futures market, thus increasing the valuation of the futures market [2]. - The overseas offer remained at $112, the same as the previous period [2]. - On the futures market, there was a trend of upward movement last week. The 03 contract reached a maximum of 813 yuan per cubic meter in the middle of the week, but on Friday, there was a significant reduction in positions and the price dropped to 784 yuan per cubic meter. During the transition of the main contract, the overall position was insufficient, and the liquidity was poor. Large - scale position increases or decreases would have a significant impact on the futures price [2][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: After breaking through the previous high, the price fell back. The position was low, and the liquidity continued to weaken [8]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis [9]. - Monthly spread strategy: Exit the 3 - 5 positive spread and wait and see. The monthly spread needs to observe subsequent policy adjustments [9]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - On December 25th, it was proposed to sell lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800. On January 29th, the put position was moved to 775, and on February 3rd, 2026, it was already profitable [10]. - On January 17th, it was proposed to go long on the 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower edge of the 03 - 05 range, and on January 26th, it was proposed to take profit [11]. - On January 24th, it was proposed to conduct range trading between 750 - 795, and on January 30th, it was revised to 775 - 810 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short log futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 810 - 820 [10]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 760 - 765 [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The inventory reached a new low; the new announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased the buyers' willingness to take delivery; the spot price in Lanshan area increased, raising the valuation [12][16]. - **Negative Information**: Previously, buyers' willingness to take delivery was low, and sellers' delivery costs were high (this situation has been corrected); the shipping from New Zealand has recovered [13][14]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis information for different specifications of logs in various ports [14]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Funds continued to reduce positions and leave the market, and the current liquidity was insufficient [15]. 3.3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - Regarding the 3 - 5 monthly spread, it is currently recommended to wait and see. The 03 contract is fundamentally stronger than the 05 contract due to various positive factors mentioned above. The 3 - 5 monthly spread once reached 10 in the middle of the week and then fell back to - 4 on Friday [18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 810 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, while the warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong is around 812 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyers' willingness to take delivery, calculated at a 10% discount on the spot price, is around 770 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan). When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously recovering. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta region has significantly improved the recent profit [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From February 7th to 16th, it is expected that 9 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 340,000 cubic meters. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were shipped from New Zealand [31]. - As of January 30th, the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 100 cubic meters, indicating that the demand exceeded expectations. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and subsequent ship arrivals, it is expected that the inventory will start to accumulate [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - **Export Analysis**: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月05日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 支撑位：120000 117.4% 96.8% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

【核心逻辑】美国公布的经济数据好坏不一，服务业 PMI 表现强劲，但 ADP 就业数据偏弱。 美元指数小幅上涨，整体仍在 97.5 附近震荡，在缺少更多利好基本面支撑的情况下，暂时 缺乏进一步上行动力。后续需重点关注美国再度推迟的非农等关键就业数据。受美元指数 金融期货早评 宏观：美国 1 月 ADP 就业人数不及预期 【市场资讯】1）央行部署 2026 年信贷市场重点工作，要求不断加强对重大战略、重点领 域和薄弱环节的优质金融服务，强化消费领域金融支持。着力支持扩大内需、科技创新、 中小微企业等重点领域。2）美国劳工统计局宣布，将于 2 月 11 日（下周三）发布 1 月非 农就业报告，将于 2 月 5 日（本周四）发布职位空缺数据，重新安排 2 月 13 日发布 1 月 CPI 通胀报告。3）美联储宣布，在 2026 年的压力测试周期中将不会调整大型银行的资本 水平，目前正考虑对这项年度测试进行多项改革以提升透明度。4）美国 1 月 ISM 服务业 PMI 指数小幅回落至 53.8，但好于市场预期。5）美国 1 月 ADP 新增就业岗位 2.2 万个，远 低于市场预期 4.8 万人，前值由 4.1 万下修 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月04日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 强支撑位：130000 111.7% 96.6% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

金融期货早评 宏观："十五五"首个中央一号文件公布 【市场资讯】1）美国总统特朗普签署政府拨款法案，结束政府部分"停摆"。2）美联储理 事米兰表示，美联储今年需要降息不止 100 个基点，很期待凯文·沃什担任美联储主席后的 表现。不过，里士满联储主席巴金强调，在通胀尚未完全回落至目标之前，货币政策仍需 保持谨慎，以确保劳动力市场的稳定。3）澳洲联储宣布加息 25 个基点至 3.85%，为 2023 年以来的首次加息，成为 2026 年首个加息的主要发达经济体央行。4）一位白宫官员表示， 美联储理事米兰已辞去白宫经济顾问委员会主席一职。5）中央一号文件《中共中央国务院 关于锚定农业农村现代化扎实推进乡村全面振兴的意见》发布。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】2 月市场迎来关键变量，美联储主席提名人选的鹰派立场引发降 息延后预期，叠加英国经济韧性显现，英央行 5 月前降息概率显著下降，但该流动性调整 仅为短期预期修正，欧美货币宽松的宏观背景未变。从产业与政策维度看：战略矿产与新 能源产业链，受美国关键矿产储备政策、中国供给侧管控双重支撑，铜、稀土及碳酸锂、 多晶硅等新能源标的供需缺口长期存在；人工智能产业在政策与技术驱动下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Calculated based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.93% today [1][3]. - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.36%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index, up 4.38%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, up 0.08% [1][3]. - Among the theme indices, only the Oilseeds and Oils Index fell by -0.01%, while the rest of the theme indices rose. The theme index with the largest increase was the Mini Composite Index, up 1.43%, and the theme index with the smallest increase was the Black Raw Materials Index, up 0.27% [1][3]. - Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was Lithium Carbonate, up 11.82%, and the single - variety index with the largest decrease was Silver, down - 13.64% [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Nanhua Commodity Index Market Data | Index Name | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | Daily Change | Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2758.41 | 2733.02 | 25.38 | 0.93% | 7.28% | 13.21% | 0.55 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 2174.24 | 2182.21 | - 7.96 | - 0.36% | 27.71% | 3.82% | | | Industrial Goods Index MHII | 3644.59 | 3594.36 | 50.23 | 1.40% | - 6.21% | 14.59% | - 0.43 | | Metal Index MHMI | 7150.53 | 6982.18 | 168.35 | 2.41% | 12.06% | 14.01% | 0.86 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNF | 1972.76 | | | | | | | | Black Index NHFI | 2519.61 | 2512.72 | 6.89 | 0.27% | - 5.51% | 16.31% | - 0.34 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1057.60 | 1056.80 | 0.81 | 0.08% | | | | | Mini Composite Index NHCIMi | 1204.34 | 1187.38 | 16.97 | 1.43% | 14.64% | | 0.07 | | Oil and Chemical Industry Index NHEI | 1004.87 | 996.23 | 8.64 | 0.87% | 0.68% | 22.15% | 0.03 | | Petrochemical Index NHPCI | 940.37 | 932.44 | 7.93 | 0.85% | 2.77% | 15.61% | 0.18 | | Fuel and Chemical Industry Index NHCCI | 956.65 | 951.80 | 4.85 | 0.51% | 1.78% | 14.93% | 0.12 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFM | 1056.06 | 1053.23 | 2.83 | 0.27% | 0.02% | 17.28% | 0.00 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 694.45 | 690.97 | 3.48 | 0.50% | - 0.22% | 12.98% | - 0.02 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOI | 1234.61 | 1234.79 | - 0.18 | - 0.01% | 0.14% | 10.58% | 0.01 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 927.58 | 924.28 | 3.31 | 0.36% | 3.31% | 9.85% | 0.05 | [3] 3.2 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Change to Index Change - For different indices such as Nanhua Mini Composite Index, Nanhua Composite Index, Nanhua Industrial Goods Index, etc., various varieties have different positive or negative contributions to their changes. For example, for the Nanhua Composite Index, Gold has a positive contribution of 22.26%, while some varieties like Ethylene Glycol have a negative contribution [3]. 3.3 Industry Chain Diagrams and Single - Variety Index Daily Changes - There are industry chain diagrams for energy and chemical, black, and agricultural product sectors, along with the daily changes of single - variety indices in these sectors. For example, in the energy and chemical sector, Glass rose 0.179 (1.52%) and Urea rose 0.95%; in the agricultural product sector, Palm Oil rose 0.89%, and Rapeseed Meal fell - 1.19% [3][5][6]

. 南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2026年02月03日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货价格区间 品种 价格区间预测 当前波动率（20日滚动） 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） 碳酸锂主力合约 强支撑位：130000 112.1% 96.6% source： 同花顺,南华研究 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 25/12 26/01 50000 100000 150000 200000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

南华浩淞天然橡胶期货气象分析报告 ——除印尼产区外，其他产区降雨偏少 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月3日 一、本周重要气象提示 中长期 气候动态 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO） ：目前Nino3.4指数-0.4（+0.1），弱拉尼娜现象持续，根据 NOAA预测，目前弱拉尼娜现象（-0.9~-0.5）或持续到 2026 年 2 月，并逐渐过渡到 ENSO 中 性，有45%以上概率在6-8月期间转为弱厄尔尼诺现象，产区天气扰动或加剧（厄尔尼诺有概率 会减少西太平洋周边产区雨水，提高干旱风险）。 印度洋偶极子（IOD）： DMI指数为−0.52，印度洋偶极子环比上周进一步减弱，对印尼周边降 雨影响降低。 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）： 马登-朱利安振荡（MJO）目前于第一阶段区域，预计将在2月中旬 向第三阶段发展，并影响印度洋东岸区域（印尼周边）。 中国 产区 云南产区：云南产区停割，1月降水低于同期水平，土壤湿度正常。近期云南维持偏低气温，西 双版纳最低气温在10℃左右，临沧、普洱 ...