1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term methanol market fundamentals are weak. After the previous port unloading issue was resolved, the expectation of port inventory accumulation has resurfaced. Inland, after the restart of Jiutai and the increase in freight rates, the inland demand is met by the port, leading to inventory accumulation and price cuts. As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics decreases, and factories want to reduce inventory through price cuts. Attention should be paid to the turning points in the inland market, such as concentrated bearish sentiment or the start of inventory reduction. The port is concerned about MTO profits due to poor downstream performance, but MTO's own profits are still acceptable, and Fude may return before the festival. The main negative factor is the upcoming port inventory accumulation, which may last until mid - January, reaching a level of 160. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract when the price is between 2050 - 2100 [3]. - The near - term trading logic is the enhanced willingness to hold goods due to the shutdown of Iranian plants. The long - term trading expectation is that the key point for methanol is how to reduce port inventory. Currently, the inventory problem of the 2601 contract cannot be solved, and the 2605 contract will be stronger than the 2601 contract, with the 1 - 5 spread in a reverse arbitrage situation, and the process is affected by macro sentiment [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term market fundamentals are weak. Port inventory accumulation is expected, and inland inventory is also increasing with price cuts. Attention should be paid to inland turning points and port MTO profit concerns. The main negative is port inventory accumulation, but there are still positive factors in the future, such as Fude's restart, a sharp decrease in Iranian imports, and a reduction in non - Iranian imports, which may lead to port inventory reduction. It is recommended to buy the 05 contract at 2050 - 2100 [3]. 3.1.2 Trading - type Strategy Suggestions - **Base - spread Strategy**: This week, the price of methanol 01 was 2120. After the price on the futures market rose and then fell, the 01 base spread remained stable [12]. - **Month - spread Strategy**: This week, with the shutdown of Iranian plants, the 1 - 5 spread was in a positive arbitrage situation [13]. - **Trend Judgment**: Methanol will fluctuate in the short - term. The short - term operating range of methanol 2601 is 1900 - 2200. It is recommended to reduce the position of selling put options on methanol 2601 and sell call options at the same time [14]. 3.1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the inland area are presented, including the inventory of the northwest region, southern and northern lines, and the national factory - level inventory, as well as the weekly pending orders of Chinese methanol enterprises [21][25][28]. 3.1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Various inventory data of methanol in the port area are presented, including the weekly inventory of Chinese ports, the inventory of different provinces, and the inventory of various warehouses in Jiangsu. In addition, data on the shipping volume and arrival volume of methanol are also provided [36][44][50]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% over 3 years [61]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are proposed for inventory management and procurement management, including using futures, put options, and call options, with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [61]. - **Positive Information**: The 450,000 - ton MTO of Lianhong Phase II started in December, and the goods will be available after the post - festival device approval is completed [62]. - **Negative Information**: Iran shipped 1.06 million tons in September, 0.86 million tons from October to now, 1.25 million tons in November, and 0.26 million tons in December [63]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Event Concerns - The fundamental support is average. Although the production area factories have no inventory pressure, considering the impact of winter weather on logistics, they still intend to maintain low inventory and mainly reduce prices to sell goods in the first half of the week. Downstream demand is shrinking, and some traders are short - selling. The market in the sales area is also declining [65]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland area, after the restart of Jiutai's methanol plant, the expected demand for olefins will shrink in the future, and the upward momentum of methanol in the northwest region will be limited. In the sales area, the logic of demand growth is clear. Yangmei Hydrocarbon plans to restart at the beginning of December, and Lianhong's new olefin project is expected to start in early December. After the arbitrage space between the port and Henan to northern Shandong is closed, the local supply in the sales area will be limited, and the supply - demand tight situation will be more prominent. The price support in the southern sales area is strong and is expected to continue to be stronger than that in the northern production area [66]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month spread fluctuated, mainly because of the increase in Iranian shipments [68]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Price Tracking - The prices of upstream coal (such as Ordos pit - mouth coal price and Qinhuangdao port coal price) and downstream methanol (such as methanol in Lunan and Taicang markets) are tracked. In addition, data on the number of warehouse receipts and methanol valuation are also provided [71][72][81]. 3.4.2 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - The production costs and profits of methanol from different raw materials (such as coal - based in Inner Mongolia, natural - gas - based in Chongqing, and coke - oven - gas - based in Hebei) are tracked, as well as the profits of downstream products such as MTO [83][104]. 3.4.3 Industry Chain Up - and Down - stream Production and Output Tracking - The weekly operating rates and production of methanol from different raw materials and different regions are tracked, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as MTO, traditional downstream products, and some chemical products [91][100][108]. 3.4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - The import volumes of methanol from different countries (such as Malaysia and Venezuela) and the shipping volume of Iranian methanol are tracked. In addition, data on the external structure of methanol, import profits, and price differences are also provided [128]. 3.4.5 Overseas Operating Rate Tracking - The weekly capacity utilization rate, output, and operating rates of Iranian and non - Iranian methanol plants overseas are tracked [131][132]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A supply - demand balance sheet for methanol from January 2025 to May 2026 is presented, including the supply (imports, olefin production, etc.), demand (olefin consumption, acetic acid consumption, etc.), and inventory changes in the port area [135].

南华期货钢材周报 ——短期尚无驱动，区间震荡 陈敏涛（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022731） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 基本面方面，成材自身的矛盾基本面不大，整体维持减产和去库的趋势，上周热卷的消费量环比边际改善明 显，但不排除可能是在出口管制生效前的抢出口行为，还需关注后续的需求的持续性。供应端由于高炉和电 炉的利润近期回升较多，成材减产的力度可能减弱，上周螺纹和热卷的产量均小幅增加，但终端需求萎靡， 工地陆续停工，北方已经进入季节性淡季，螺纹需求降速虽放缓但仍处于低位，若螺纹产量继续增加而消费 并无起色，螺纹钢未来去库趋势可能放缓。铁水产量上周环比微增，但是否见底还需观察，铁水产量的微增 支撑了铁矿价格的强势，目前铁矿港口库存继续累库，铁矿上方亦有压力，但结构上钢厂库存相较于往年偏 低，有补库需求的支撑 ，铁矿价格可能区间震荡。焦煤矿山库存和港口库存维持累库状态，蒙古通关量维持 在高位，蒙古口岸库存也维持累库趋势，整体看焦煤的供应相对宽松，限制焦煤的上涨空间。近期商品市场 偏暖也部分带动了钢材价格的上涨，但受制于现 ...

1.1 核心矛盾 南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、12月底-春节前仍有部分玻璃产线冷修等待兑现，继续影响远月定价和市场预期。此外，2026年政策端对 供应的扰动尚不能排除，关注供应预期的变化。 2、纯碱则以成本定价为主，虽然供应端偶有降负，但新产能待投，产量也仍在中高位置，没有趋势性减产的 情况下纯碱估值难以有向上弹性，且随着玻璃冷修预期再起，纯碱刚需有下滑的预期。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化；至于纯碱，新产能已经上路，尚 无法脱离供需过剩的一致预期。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 玻璃：近端大部分冷修兑现，当前日熔下滑至15.45万吨附近，春节前供应扰动尚在，日熔仍有进一步下滑的 预期，等待兑现程度。基本面，中游高库存以及需求淡季抑制现货价格，现货压力较大，观察后续现实端反 馈。 ——低位震荡 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 纯碱：跟随上下边际成本波动，不过新产能待投，但现实层面高库存和高产量预期压制绝对价格；纯碱上游 不断 ...

南华期货白糖产业周报 ——反弹还是反转？ 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 我们认为市场交易的重点来自于当前价格是否已经见底。当前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、01合约的价格是否合理？当前01合约及进入交割月，尽管此前曾经出现较大幅度反弹，但是上周四相比远 月合约期价出现较大回落。按照巴西配额外45天船期进口价格计算，01价格对标的最低现货价格是5160左 右，因此01与盘面贴合后出现较大幅度下跌也符合逻辑。 2、05合约未来的价格会到哪里？目前05合约明显贴水广西糖价格，但是与巴西配额外进口价格类似，因此后 续价格是否会跟随原糖价格波动的概率还是比较高。需要注意的是得利席位在最近几日价格反弹之际重新增 加了大量空头头寸，相反散户席位最近也出现明显增加多头头寸的现象。考虑到当前利多因素不足，期价进 一步走高的概率实际上相对有限 2、国际市场会重新站稳15美分吗？上周国际原糖价格先跌后涨，期价一度重新回到15.2美分之上。 由于巴 西糖的出口成本在15.2美分，当前糖价 ...

南华期货锌产业周报 ——区间震荡 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌市正处于强宏观预期与弱现实库存的剧烈博弈之中。宏观层面，海外交易宽松预期叠加国内"十 五五"规划纲要提出的新基建加码，使得整体风险偏好显著回暖，有色板块共振上行。然而，回归基本面逻 辑，我们看到了典型的"内紧外松"结构性矛盾**：国内供应端因矿端极度紧缺（国产TC跌至1500元/金属 吨历史低位）迫使冶炼厂延续检修，叠加12月出口窗口关闭，导致国内社会库存逆势去化至11.47万吨的相对 低位。与此同时，海外LME库存却突破10万吨大关，隐性库存显性化带来的压力客观存在，这直接压制了伦 锌的上方空间。由此判断，当前锌价的底部支撑由高企的边际成本和国内供应缺口夯实，但上方天花板则受 制于海外累库与淡季需求的双重压制，短期难以形成单边突破趋势，大概率维持高位区间震荡。 沪锌沪铜期货主力收盘价对比 元/吨 沪锌期货主力合约收盘价 沪铜期货主力收盘价(右轴) 元/吨 15000 20000 25000 30000 50 ...

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——锂矿库存得到缓解，利润有所修复 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现偏向态势。展望未来，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂资源释放 进度、国内锂矿库存紧张程度、下游需求的可持续性，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存紧张程度有所缓解，2026年1月份锂矿进口量持续放量，一定程度上可以缓解 市场锂矿紧张程度。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"经过持续不断的炒作后，市场对此消息的反应已经减 弱，建议直接关注公司公告和工厂实际开工情况。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游库存降幅 显著。当前市场预计1月份下游排产环比减少10%左右属于合理区间，若环比减少弱于市场预期，则警惕回调 压力。同时，下游补库节奏亦不容忽视，碳酸锂价格已连续上涨约2个月，涨价周期内下游对高价碳酸锂的采 购意愿显著下降，以刚需补库及消耗自身库存为 ...

南华期货铁合金周报 ——短期震荡偏强，下方亦有支撑，但上涨空间或有限 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/12/28 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期铁合金偏强震荡的主要原因一方面在于加快推进全面绿色低碳转型，从明年开始有力有效管控高耗能高 排放项目消息的预期影响；另一方面铁合金在利润亏损的情况一直维持减产的状态，以及下方受到成本端的 支撑，部分地区上调了电价。但本周硅锰产量小幅增加，环比上周增加+2.3%，一方面在于硅锰利润底部边 际反弹，另一方面下游螺纹产量连续两周环比增加和铁水产量上周的环比改善，在下游需求疲软没有改变的 条件下，硅锰大规模产量的增加的可能性不大，以小幅波动为主；硅铁产量维持减产的趋势，硅铁产量环比 上周-1.3%，减产速度明显放缓。库存端，硅铁库存继续去库，硅铁库存环比上周-2.4%；硅锰库存继续累 库，硅锰库存环比上周+0.4%，累库速度放缓，库存基数大为近5年库存最高水平，去库压力较大。 下游需 求，上周铁水改善，热卷消费环比改善明显，但不排除是在明年1月1号出口管制生效前的抢出口行为，下游 需求可能是阶段性的反 ...

纯苯方面，本周供应小幅波动；需求端，主力下游苯乙烯、苯酚、苯胺、己二酸开工均有不同程度提 升，五大下游折原料纯苯总体需求量明显回升，但中长期看下游仍无法给到很强的需求支撑。库存方面，华 东主港的纯苯库存已经累至历史高位，面临胀库风险。明年炼厂检修计划陆续公布，根据当前已有检修计划 计算，明年上半年检修季纯苯的月检修损失相较于前两年明显减少，春节后纯苯去库压力较大。外盘美湾纯 苯价格继续偏强，美韩窗口持续打开，但在当下亚洲纯苯比较过剩的情况下，零星的出口成交仍难改变过剩 格局，纯苯维持内弱外强。 南华期货纯苯苯乙烯产业链周报 ——低位反弹 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证证号：Z0015428 ） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 . 苯乙烯主力基差季节性 source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 -500 0 500 1000 1500 source： ...

南华期货尿素产业周报 ——远月尝试买入 2025/12/28 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 | | | 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便宜可交割品地点仍为河南与山东。考虑到01合约出口预期消失，1-5月差走反 套。由于01合约还有秋季肥预期，尿素01合约仍有升水。 资金席位回测一览 1.1 核心矛盾 从投产格局以及产业周期来看，尿素仍然处于不断释放新增产能导致供应过剩的阶段，在这样的阶段下， 尿素2026年的价格中枢将进一步下移，但下跌的过程中受到出口政策的托底，总得来看2026年尿素价格将依 靠出口政策缓解压力。需求节奏来看，上半年对应农需旺季，大概率暂停出口，上半年尿素行情将依据需求 节奏涨跌，进入下半年后，依靠出口政策缓解国内供应压力，价格走势偏政策主导。对于尿素05合约而言， 对应国内需求旺季，存有涨价预期，具体节奏来看，大概率在2026年春节前一个月迎来启动，顶部区间参考 1850-1950之间，需要注意的是农需节奏存在波段性，建议尝试买入远月合约。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 ...

南华期货铅产业周报 ——虚强实弱 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前铅价的强势并非源自铅自身供需的内生驱动，而是宏观"强预期"与白银等副产品溢价在微观库存 低位上的投机性共振。宏观层面，海外市场正处于"圣诞避险"与"交易2026年宽松"的甜蜜期，国内则 在"十五五"规划纲要的政策强心针下，不仅地产止稳预期升温，新基建逻辑更是带动有色板块整体估值上 移，铅作为板块内的低估值品种被动跟涨。然而，剥离宏观滤镜回归产业现实，供需两端正在出现显著 的"剪刀差"背离：供应端随着环保扰动消退及冶炼利润修复，再生铅周度开工率已回升至45.4%，原生铅 检修恢复亦带来边际增量；反观需求端，正值2025年岁末关账节点，下游电池厂处于典型的"去库盘点"垃 圾时间，采购意愿降至冰点。值得注意的是，尽管供需边际走弱，但极低的社会库存（五地仅1.79万吨）成 为了多头最后的堡垒，这种"低库存+强宏观"的组合掩盖了现货成交的寡淡。因此，短期铅价的定价权已暂 时移交至宏观资金与白银情绪手中，基本面供需的实质性 ...