Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Since the listing of propylene on July 22, its price has been oscillating downward, affected by the "Anti-Involution" policy and device maintenance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include the industrial chain's commissioning progress, the impact of PDH profit on operation, the PP market's performance, the influence of the "Anti-Involution" policy, and potential delivery issues [1]. - The Q4 price range of propylene is estimated to be between 6,000 - 6,700 yuan/ton. Recommended strategies are range trading for the single - side, backwardation for the inter - month, and range trading for the PP - PL spread. Also, consider buying MA and shorting PL based on Iran's gas restrictions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Chapter 2: Market Review - Since July 22, the main contract price of propylene has oscillated downward from a high of 6,694 yuan/ton to a low of 6,354 yuan/ton, influenced by the "Anti - Involution" policy and device fluctuations [2]. - The "Anti - Involution" policy, which involves assessing old petrochemical devices, mainly affects market expectations and sentiment, increasing price volatility [3]. - Device fluctuations in the Shandong market, such as Zhenhua's device malfunctions and adjustments by Jineng and Yulong based on the propylene - polypropylene spread, can cause significant price changes [3]. - The propylene basis has been expanding. The spot market is more sensitive to supply - demand changes, while the 01 contract is under pressure due to potential delivery issues and the influence of the PP market [5]. - The 01 - 02 month spread of propylene has been oscillating in the range of - 100 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, with a tendency towards backwardation due to the 01 contract being a mandatory delivery month [7]. - The propylene - polypropylene spread showed a V - shaped pattern in Q3, currently at a yearly low [9]. Chapter 3: Core Focus Points 3.1 Focus on the Industrial Chain Commissioning Rhythm - From January to September, 808 million tons of propylene and 565 million tons of polypropylene (415 million tons of pellets and 150 million tons of powder) were commissioned, mostly as supporting capacities. The impact on the supply - demand gap by the end of the year depends on different commissioning scenarios [11]. - In the Shandong market, the supply - demand situation is more important. As of now, it is looser than in 2024. By the end of the year, different commissioning plans will lead to different supply - demand gaps [11]. 3.2 PDH Profit Remains Crucial - PDH and refinery catalytic cracking have a significant impact on the propylene trading market. In Q4, profit will remain a key factor. With propane in the seasonal peak, PDH is currently at a loss, and some factories plan maintenance. PP overcapacity also adds pressure [15][17]. 3.3 PP Operation Still Needs Key Attention - The price of the propylene main contract is highly correlated with the PP futures price. PP accounts for about 70% of propylene demand. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side profit - related operation fluctuations, demand - side performance during the peak season, the PP - propylene spread, and the impact of macro - policies [19]. 3.4 Continuous Tracking of the "Anti - Involution" Policy - The "Anti - Involution" policy has increased market volatility since June, and its impact will be greater in Q4. The assessment of old devices is more for technological improvement, with a relatively small impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The coal market may affect market sentiment. The reduction of South Korea's cracking capacity will reduce imports to China, but domestic production can make up for it [24]. 3.5 Potential Delivery Issues - Propylene has high storage and transportation requirements. The current exchange settings have designated delivery areas and depots, with a 100 - yuan/ton discount for South China's depots. There may be delivery problems in South China, and the discount may not cover the friction costs [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook 3.1 Valuation Feedback - PDH cost provides support. In Q4, propane prices are relatively strong, and the 01 PDH cost is about 6,400 yuan/ton, with a neutral valuation [27]. - The PP - PL spread is oscillating at a low level. Historically, the spread is mostly between 400 - 800 yuan/ton, currently around 500 yuan/ton, with a neutral short - term outlook [31]. - The olefin/methanol ratio is expected to decline in Q4 due to potential gas restrictions in Iran affecting methanol supply [33]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Outlook - From January to August, domestic propylene production was 394.4 million tons, a 13.21% year - on - year increase. In Q4, production is expected to remain high under high commissioning, and PDH profit is crucial for external supply [35][36]. - PP is expected to maintain high production in Q4, supporting propylene demand but with limited upward price space. Other downstream industries are also affected by profit and need continuous profit tracking [41]. - The Shandong market is more important for supply - demand balance. In Q4, key aspects to focus on include supply - side PDH profit and propylene - polypropylene spread, and demand - side new project commissioning and the operation of main downstream industries [42][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].

南华期货PX-TA产业周报 ——"反内卷"情绪复苏，估值低位反弹 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 PX-TA近期在"化工反内卷"情绪复苏与需求边际好转带动下价格低位反弹，但后续来看，聚酯旺季高度难 言期待，预计主要以季节性阶段性走强为主，聚酯开工上长丝短纤已提至高位，继续提负空间有限，聚酯负 荷高点仍依赖瓶片开工表现。供应端来看，近期PTA检修计划公布较多，若后续兑现，PX-TA结构性矛盾近端 12月之前将得到缓解，因此PTA加工费近期走扩。但格局上PTA偏过剩格局预期压制PTA加工费修复力度，结 构性矛盾仍需PTA工厂的额外检修量来缓解，加工费扩张幅度有限。总体而言，近期在商品情绪不振压制下 PX-TA产业链绝对价格承压严重，继续压缩空间较为有限，后续进入十月终端需求与情绪预计延续边际好 转，同时宏观预期影响力度或大于基本面悲观预期的压制力度；在操作上，可考虑谨慎试多，或通过做扩TA- SC价差表达；加工费方面，TA01盘面加工 ...

南华期货聚丙烯产业周报 ——低利润下意外检修增多 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响聚丙烯价格走势的核心矛盾主要在于估值端：1）PDH装置利润显著压缩，当前已基本处于亏损状 态，PDH开工率从月初的73%降至本周的69%；2）PP-丙烯价差大幅收窄，导致华北多家企业，包括裕龙石 化、金诚石化、河北海伟等，均有暂停PP装置，外卖丙烯的情况出现；3）PP粒粉料价差自9月中旬开始一直 处于倒挂状态，生产粒料的经济性下降，中景石化目前暂停两条PP粒料产线，粉料生产比例相对提升。 近期在PP价格重心不断下移的情况下，生产利润严重压缩，导致意外检修情况增多。PP供给端的边际减量或 将对其价格形成一定支撑。 PP拉丝-丙烯季节性 source： wind,南华研究 元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 -500 0 500 1000 1500 山东PP粒粉价差 so ...

南华期货塑料产业周报 ——供应压力限制其上行空间 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前PE自身的矛盾并不突出，总体供需格局持续偏弱：在供给端，多套装置集中在9月底重启，10月装置检 修量预计快速下滑，供给回升。并且，由于海外PE供需持续偏弱，外盘价格下滑，源自北美和中东的报盘明 显增加。因此，10-11月PE进口存在进口预期，供应压力进一步加大。在需求端，虽然当前PE正处于逐步进 入旺季的阶段，但是需求回升速度偏缓，下游订单跟进有限，企业补库意愿不强，同时PE库存，尤其是 LLDPE库存处于偏高水位，中上游出货存在压力，因此PE基差持续处于贴水状态。需求的弱导致PE支撑不 足，总体呈现震荡偏弱走势。 PE检修减损量（周）季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 0 5 10 15 LLDPE外盘价格 source： wind,南华研究 美元/吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene market include the possible repeated submission of "anti - involution", the vulnerability of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, and the insufficient demand of major downstream PP, which leads to a contraction in the price difference between PP and propylene and a lack of ability to accept high - priced propylene. The PL01 contract is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. The propylene trend is highly correlated with polypropylene, and the PP - PL spread oscillates between 490 - 540 yuan/ton. Recently, as PP maintenance increases, its valuation is repaired, and propylene follows the upward trend [1]. - In the short - term, the spot price is relatively stable, and the futures price rebounds slightly. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled. The basis has shrunk from a high of 190 to - 15 yuan/ton. Considering the characteristics of the 01 contract, the month - spread strategy is to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices, and the hedging and arbitrage strategy is to widen the PP - PL spread at low prices [15][17]. - In the long - term, there are expectations of new capacity coming on stream on the supply side, and the growth rate of PP terminal demand is lower than that of supply, leading to inventory accumulation [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - "Anti - involution" may be repeatedly submitted, affecting market expectations [1]. - Spot prices are easily affected by individual device fluctuations. With the restart and increased load of some devices in the Shandong region, the supply - demand gap in the spot market has widened [1]. - The main downstream PP has sufficient supply but insufficient demand. The price difference between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk, and most downstream industries have poor profit conditions and resist high - priced propylene [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is in an oscillatory state, and the price range of PL01 is 6200 - 6600 yuan/ton. For the unilateral strategy, those who went long at around 6300 can still hold their positions [15]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is in an oscillatory state. The previous expectation of a narrowing basis has basically been fulfilled, and currently, the spot is stable in the short - term, and the futures price rebounds slightly [15]. - **Month - Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices. Considering that 01 is a forced cancellation month, the direction is still to conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices [16][17]. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Widen the PP - PL spread at low prices. When the PP - PL spread is around 500, add positions [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of propylene is 6250 - 6600 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 0.0513 and a historical percentage of 0.102 (3 - year) [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high, short - sell propylene futures at high prices and sell call options to lock in profits and reduce costs. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, buy propylene futures at low prices and sell put options to lock in procurement costs and reduce costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On the crude oil side, sanctions and disputes around Russia drive the market up. On the industrial side, as PP maintenance increases this week, its valuation is repaired, driving propylene up. Additionally, as PDH profits are compressed, planned maintenance increases [20]. - **Negative Information**: This week's data on the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits and the second - quarter GDP are better than expected, increasing the probability of a pause in interest rate cuts in October [21]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On September 30th, China's official manufacturing PMI will be released [23]. - On October 1st, the US September ISM manufacturing data is expected to be 49.2, higher than the previous value of 48.7 [23]. - On October 3rd, economic data such as the US unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls will be released [23]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: This week, the PL01 contract first declined and then rebounded. The trading volume did not change much. The net long positions of the main profitable seats decreased, the positions in the top - ten long and short lists did not change significantly, the net short positions of profitable seats decreased slightly, foreign investors' net short positions increased slightly, and retail investors' net long positions increased slightly [24]. - **Technical Analysis**: From the daily line, propylene is in a rebound during an oscillatory decline, and the short - term upper pressure is still near the middle track. From the hourly line, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating a possible transition to oscillatory consolidation in the short - term [24]. - **Basis and Month - Spread Structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 01 closed at - 15 yuan/ton, compared with - 67 yuan/ton last week. The 01 - 02 month - spread of propylene closed at - 34 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from last week, showing an overall reverse arbitrage trend but with oscillations [27]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 823.98 yuan/ton (- 98.7), and that of Shandong local refineries was 204.72 yuan/ton (- 73.48). Although the profits of major refineries increased, the cracking capacity utilization rate decreased slightly, mainly affected by the new cracking capacity of Yulong [30]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - The cracking profit of Asian naphtha was - 56 US dollars/ton (- 27), and that of Asian propane was - 14 US dollars/ton (- 12). Propane cracking profit was better than naphtha cracking profit, but as the propane price strengthened, propane cracking profit weakened [32]. - The PDH profit based on FEI cost was - 215 yuan/ton (- 65), and that based on CP cost was - 170 yuan/ton (- 175). Currently, both the propylene monomer and PP sectors are in a loss - making state [32]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The price difference between PP raffia and propylene was 225 yuan/ton (+ 160), and that between PP powder and propylene was 255 yuan/ton (+ 130). The pressure caused by the price difference still exists [34]. - The profit of propylene oxide (PO) by different methods showed different trends. The profit of acrylonitrile was - 1191 yuan/ton (+ 6), with little change. The profit of acrylic acid was + 391 yuan/ton (+ 214), with a significant improvement. The profit of butanol was + 147 yuan/ton (+ 84), with little change. The profit of octanol was 264 yuan/ton (- 84), with a relatively large decline recently but still in a relatively good profit state among downstream products. The profit of phenol - acetone was - 371 yuan/ton (- 87), with little change [36]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profit Tracking The price difference between Chinese and South Korean propylene has shown little recent fluctuation. With fewer planned maintenance activities in South Korea in September and October, imports are expected to remain at a high level [41]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Projection 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market This week, both supply and demand in the Shandong market increased. In October, Binhuahua and Lihuayi have maintenance plans, and the supply - demand gap will oscillate [43]. 3.5.2 Market Supply - Side and Projection - This week, due to the resumption of production by some enterprises, the overall operating rate of propylene increased to 75.52% (+ 1.67%), still at a high level. In October, Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical still have plans for production start - up and capacity increase, while on the PDH side, Bohua, Binhuahua, Haiwei, Lihuayi, etc. have maintenance plans [46]. - This week's supply increase mainly comes from the increased load of Wanhua Penglai. The production volume in the Shandong region is expected to oscillate in the next few weeks. Although Zhenhua is restarting, Jinneng's maintenance is postponed, and the maintenance plans of Binhuahua and Lihuayi are expected to offset some of the incremental supply [48]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Projection - The price difference between PP powder and propylene is still relatively low, and many devices are shut down. This week, Shandong Kairi resumed production at a low - load operation [54]. - In the Shandong region, demand increased this week, mainly due to the resumption of production of PP devices. There were different production - related changes in various downstream industries such as PP granules, PP powder, propylene oxide, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, butanol - octanol, and phenol - acetone [73].

南华期货乙二醇产业周报 ——订单边际好转，但上方维持承压 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 总体而言，乙二醇近期供需边际好转，累库预期随意外检修幅度有所收窄。需求端随天气转冷冬季订单 下发边际好转，但目前来看以阶段性好转为主，旺季不旺预期难以扭转，聚酯高度总体有限。近端显性库存 去化至历史低位，且10月底之前累库幅度有限，若出现意外或可产生流动性行情，基差维持正套看待。单边 向上难觅驱动，或有阶段性反弹节奏，但乙二醇长期累库预期使得乙二醇空配地位难改，向上突破在基本面 之外仍需宏观或成本端推动。目前而言，乙二醇短期驱动不足，预计维持4150-4350区间震荡，可以区间操作 或者在70以上入场卖出eg2601-P-4150。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 1、乙二醇港口显性库存持续去化至历史低位，10月底之前预计维持60万吨以下显性库存，短期流动性偏紧格 局难改。 2、国内乙二醇开工已升至高位，"能开尽开"背景下供应弹性有限，若出现供应端意外难有 ...

南华期货镍&不锈钢产业周报 —节前减仓过度，基本面有所松动 2025年9月28日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F03138675 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍盘面周内震荡为主，基本面实际调整有限。矿端情绪尚未消散，镍矿方面担忧聚焦在三个层面，政府制 裁采矿企业，企业环保优化后成本抬升，以及配额审批将近，批复数量或不及预期 。新能源方面支撑仍存， 目前九月已过补货节点，下游保存一定成交动向。刚果延长钴出口禁令，并且公布2025，2026出口总配额， 钴价仍有上行空间，带动MHP以及镍盐方面价格有一定上涨，当前市场流通偏紧，库存较低且仍有询单，后 续报价或延续偏强 。镍铁近期价格有所回落，目前价格已经接近不锈钢成本下线，不锈钢进入累库情况下镍 铁需求有所降低，进一步上探动能不足，近期无高价大单成交。不锈钢方面周内反复博弈，盘面一直不温不 火，目前库存重新出现小幅累积，结束连续十周去库；现货端灵活跟随盘面浮动，各种规格优惠试图以现货 成交为前提刺激盘面，但是整体节前现货仍以观望为主，探涨动作无明显成效。周中美元指数下探引领有色 金属一波上行，随后跟随美元指 ...

Bigger mind, Bigger fortune 智慧创造财富 2025 四季度国债展望 | 2025 年 9 月 等待政策重心的回摆时刻 核心观点: 风险资产与监管扰动是三季度债市多次回落的主因,换一个角 度来说,这也意味着基本面以及流动性的核心驱动没有改变, 从债市的底层框架来说，当前并不存在周期逆转的风险。 经过回顾后,我们有几点心得体会: 《南华期货 2025 年国债下半年展 望: 三端共振, 帆随心动》 《股债:从晓晓板转向共振 -- 8 月 经济数据的启发》 1 ) 除了以公募收费新规为代表的监管影响仍未平息，其余在三 季度对债市造成明显冲击的利空均已落地或脱敏。 2）我们认为监管层面的扰动可能接近尾声。 3）外部不确定性在降低。 四季度展望: 三季度的利空扰动大多与基本面和流动性层面无关,并且已经 充分反应在了当前的定价中,因此我们没有理由对四季度继续 悲观。尽管没有更多的降息降准操作,但整个三季度内央行在 流动性层面的支持是一如既往的。另一方面，8 月基本面数据全 面走弱,宏观政策托底的必要性大幅提升,我们认为这可能会 引发货币政策重心向"稳增长"回摆。而从最新央行三季度货 币政策执行例 ...

南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——下游补库临近尾声，焦煤现货续涨存疑 张泫（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月27日 近期焦煤矿山开工率持续抬升，蒙煤积极通关，焦煤供应旺盛。节前补库临近尾声，节后焦煤库存结构有边 际恶化的风险，预计现货挺价难度将逐步提高。焦炭提涨正式开启，预计国庆节中或节后正式落地，届时即 期焦化利润有望小幅改善，短期内焦企大面积减产的概率不高。高炉钢厂积极增产，铁水产量仍在240万吨以 上的高位，用焦需求旺盛，焦炭供需无明显矛盾。展望后市，节前补库逻辑基本交易完毕，后续焦煤坑口挺 价难度较大，短期盘面或面临一定下行压力，焦炭供需矛盾不大，走势跟随焦煤为主。中长期来看，"反内 卷"仍是下半年市场的交易主线，需警惕宏观情绪波动及矿山超产检查对煤焦市场的扰动，市场参与者对后市 预期逐渐改善，持货意愿相比上半年也有所增强。我们维持之前的判断，煤焦不作为黑色系空配，预期焦煤 主力盘面维持宽幅震荡格局，突破前高需要看到实质性利好政策出台或煤矿开工率超预期下滑。后续关注国 庆节后终端需求恢复情况、10月底四中全会及十五五规划纲要的提出。 中国精 ...