Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The copper trading has entered a more complex and politicized new stage. The copper price dropped to the daily limit at the beginning of the week due to the drying up of liquidity and the weakening of speculative sentiment, and then rebounded under the boost of the "state reserve purchase" policy. The volatility of copper price reached a phased high. The release of indicators such as the US non - farm payrolls next week may change the holiday capital position - holding attitude [2]. - In the short - term, the trading logic focuses on macro - policy expectations, capital liquidity, and inventory structure changes. The price fluctuation reflects more of the emotional side rather than the substantial deterioration of the fundamentals. In the long - term, the core contradiction will shift to whether the strong physical supply - demand fundamentals can offset the negative impact of macro - policy uncertainties [7][8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded due to the "state reserve purchase" policy. The release of US non - farm payrolls and other indicators next week may affect the capital position - holding attitude during the holiday [2]. - Fundamentally, the sharp drop in copper price led to concentrated delivery of downstream orders. The upstream processing enterprises took the opportunity to set prices, the enterprise operating rate rebounded, raw material inventory increased, and finished - product inventory decreased. China is in the seasonal inventory accumulation cycle, while the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper has slowed down [2]. - According to the model, the current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend with a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 99.48%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 20.27%, higher than the previous week and the historical volatility of 18.01%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.74%, with a one - week annualized volatility of 15%, lower than the previous week and the historical volatility of 20.28% [9]. - **Trend Judgment**: The current stage of cathode copper and LME copper is the early stage of an upward trend at a low - cycle position [9]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [98549, 104071] with a price center of 101310; the price range of London copper is [12697, 13541] with a price center of 13119 [9]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 1.52%, and that of going long on London copper is 1.16%, both indicating a moderate risk - return ratio and suitable for moderate participation [9]. - **Basis (Premium/Discount), Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The basis strategy is bearish, the monthly spread strategy is neutral, and attention should be paid to cross - market reverse arbitrage opportunities [11]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with low raw material inventory and the need to replenish inventory before the festival, considering the significant increase in copper price volatility, it is recommended to use appropriate hedging tools to hedge the cost increase caused by price increases. Specific operations include batch - building positions near the support level of futures and buying up - and - out cumulative options in the over - the - counter market [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: China's non - ferrous metal industry association proposed three major countermeasures, including enhancing domestic raw material supply capacity, diversifying copper concentrate imports and overseas investments, and promoting copper smelting capacity management. Anglo American Resources adjusted its medium - and long - term copper production guidance downward. The domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to accumulate significantly [18][19]. - **Negative Information**: The registered copper warrants in LME warehouses increased to the highest level since late February last year. Trump signed an executive order to impose tariffs on products imported into the US from countries that purchase, import, or obtain goods or services from Iran [19][20]. - **Exchange Information**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange issued risk warnings and adjusted trading margin ratios and daily price limits for copper futures contracts [21]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretations - Next week, major macro - economic indicators will be released, including US core retail sales, China's CPI and PPI, US unemployment rate, and non - farm payrolls, etc. [22] Chapter 3: Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Capital 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - At the beginning of the week, affected by market sentiment, copper prices dropped and then fluctuated within a range. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai copper weighted index decreased, and the market speculation degree returned to below the median of 50. The price of the Shanghai copper main contract fluctuated around 101659, and the term structure of Shanghai copper futures premium continued to provide favorable conditions for delivery arbitrage [25]. 3.2 Overseas Market Interpretation - LME copper and Comex copper maintained high volatility this week, with the amplitude narrowing compared with the previous week. The LME copper price was stronger than the Comex copper price, resulting in an increase in the inversion of the LC spread and a slowdown in the inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper. The net long positions of Comex copper speculators decreased [26]. Chapter 4: Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - This week, the copper spot price dropped significantly, the discount narrowed and even turned into a premium. The smelting income of refined copper spot decreased week - on - week, and the procurement willingness of smelting enterprises was weak while the shipping willingness was strong. The Yangshan copper premium recovered, and the copper import window opened. The operating rates of some processing industries rebounded, but it is expected to decline next week due to the approaching Spring Festival [30]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - This week, the copper import profit increased week - on - week, the recycled copper import profit decreased, the Shanghai - London ratio continued to weaken, and the copper import window opened. The export volume of copper and copper concentrates from Chile to China decreased, and it is expected that the arrival volume of copper concentrates in China in January will decrease month - on - month [33]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - This week, affected by the increase in copper import profit and the opening of the import window, the global visible copper inventory continued to rise. The inventory accumulation speed of Comex copper and Shanghai copper slowed down. The total LME copper inventory increased, with the registered warrants increasing and the cancelled warrants decreasing. The copper concentrate inventory is lower than the same period in previous years [36]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - There are no maintenance plans for sample smelting enterprises in February, but the operating rate is expected to decline due to the Spring Festival holiday, and the output in February is likely to decrease. The output in January 2026 is expected to be about 1.12 million tons, lower than that in 2025 but higher than that in December 2024 [41]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In January 2026, the operating rates of most copper processing enterprises rebounded compared with the previous expectations. The operating rates of electrolytic copper rod, copper strip, copper tube, and copper cable enterprises increased, while the operating rate of brass rod enterprises decreased slightly [43][46]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The copper price dropped to the limit at the beginning of the week and then rebounded, with the volatility reaching a phased high. Near the Spring Festival, the activity of speculative trading will decline. For medium - term investors, attention can be paid to the price fluctuations in the range of 98000 - 100000. Short - term range operations are recommended before the festival, and chasing up or selling down should be done with caution [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, lead prices entered a downward channel under the dual pressure of tightened macro - liquidity and seasonal industrial shutdown. The "Wash trade" led to a strong US dollar index, capping the valuation of non - ferrous metals including lead. Meanwhile, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand before the Spring Festival. The marginal contraction of supply is offset by a more severe consumption slump. The lead market is in a weak reality logic of "supply exceeding demand, rising inventories and falling prices", and the fundamental analysis remains weak [3]. - In the short - term, the market is experiencing a pre - holiday capital risk - aversion wave, with extremely low trading sentiment. The spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand, so there is a risk of downward correction due to large fluctuations in the external market during the holiday [7]. - Looking at the whole year of 2026, lead prices are still trapped in a wide - range oscillation pattern due to over - capacity and the substitution of recycled lead. Although there is cost support at the mine end, the price ceiling will be suppressed in the long - term due to the lack of new growth points in consumption and strict environmental capacity limits [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level: The "Wash trade" caused the US dollar index to be strong, forming a valuation ceiling for lead [3]. - Industry - level: Before the Spring Festival, the domestic lead market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The开工 rate of recycled lead enterprises has declined seasonally, and the consumption of downstream battery enterprises has come to a standstill. Inventories are rising [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Futures unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see. The current price is in a seasonal weak range but close to the cost line, so the risk of short - selling increases. It is recommended to make arrangements after the post - holiday inventory data is clear [10]. - Arbitrage strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity of inter - period positive arbitrage. Due to the high inventory - accumulation pressure in February, the far - month contracts may be relatively stronger due to consumption recovery expectations. Observe the reverse arbitrage opportunity after the spread between the 03 - 05 contracts narrows [10]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventories worried about price drops, it is recommended to short the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 75% at an entry range of 17,500 yuan/ton [11]. - Raw material management: For enterprises with low raw - material inventories worried about price increases, it is recommended to long the main Shanghai lead futures contract with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 16,000 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive drivers**: In February, affected by the Spring Festival holiday and routine maintenance of some enterprises, the production of primary lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The LME lead inventory is at a relatively medium - level historically, limiting the absolute downward space [12]. - **Negative drivers**: Hawkish signals in the "Wash trade", a sharp decline in the operating rate of battery enterprises, and expected increase in social inventories approaching 100,000 tons [13]. - **Spot transaction information**: The daily average price of SMM 1 lead is 16,400 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous day; the weekly average price is 16,805 yuan/ton; the monthly average price is 17,078.75 yuan/ton. The price of domestic lead concentrates is 16,150 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, and the price of imported lead concentrates is 16,483.7 yuan/ton, down 0.3% [15]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Domestic: On February 13th, pay attention to the initial value of the accumulation of social inventories announced by SMM [17]. - International: On February 10th, pay attention to the marginal adjustment of the "balance - sheet reduction" expectation by US inflation - related data [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The lead price closed at 16,510 yuan/ton this week. Currently, profitable positions are mainly short in net positions. The basis and monthly spread structure show that the spot is weak, and the Contango structure may expand [18][20]. - **International market**: As of 15:00 this Friday, LME lead was at $1,948.5/ton. LME lead maintains a C - structure, and the spot is weaker than the futures [23][38]. - **Internal - external price difference tracking**: Relevant charts show the seasonal changes in lead spot import profit and loss and the relationship between the closing prices of Shanghai lead and LME lead [41]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The comparison of primary lead processing fees shows the changes in domestic and imported lead concentrate processing fees [43]. - The relationship between SMM lead concentrate monthly production and domestic lead concentrate processing fees is also presented [43]. 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The relationship between lead concentrate import profit and loss and import volume is shown, as well as the monthly import volume and its year - on - year change [45][46]. - Seasonal charts of refined lead import, lead concentrate import, lead battery import and export, and lead ingot net export are provided [47][49][50]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - Seasonal charts of domestic lead ingot total supply and monthly actual consumption are presented [54]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The monthly production of lead concentrates, global lead mine production, electrolytic lead production, and recycled refined lead production, as well as their year - on - year changes and seasonality, are shown [56][58]. - The capacity utilization rates of primary lead and recycled lead are presented [63]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Seasonal charts of lead battery operating rates (monthly, weekly, by type, and by region) are provided [65][66]. - Seasonal charts of lead battery import and export volumes, and the finished - product inventory days of lead battery enterprises and dealers are presented [68].

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——地缘增加盘面波动 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月08日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油市场震荡反复：中长期看原油一方面承受供应过剩的基本面的影响，另一方面受到地缘的影 响，短期地缘占据主导，本周原油价格在美伊局势变动中上下震荡，周五谈判完，目前据消息称伊朗拒绝放 弃其核燃料浓缩活动，而美方仍在对伊朗施压，特朗普表示下周将再次与伊朗谈判。 2）外盘丙烷本周偏震荡：中东地区发运量整体中性，到岸贴水依然较高；美国本周在寒潮影响在供应下滑， 库存维持去库状态，低产量下去库加快。截至本周五，FEI升贴水53.5（换月导致），CP升贴水-15。 丙烯-PDH-利润-FEI 3）内盘基本面较上周持稳：供应端本周依旧延续偏低的状态，到港量本周依然不高，港口库存在新增样本下 小幅累库，但炼厂商品量低位回升；需求端在PDH装置检修下延续偏弱 ...

南华期货铁合金周报 ——下方受到成本支撑，上方受到下游累库压力 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026/2/8 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 硅铁周度厂库库存季节性 source： 南华研究 钢联 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 4 6 8 10 硅锰周度厂库库存季节性 source： 钢联，南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 10 20 30 40 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 1.2 交易型策略建议 【行情定位】 ∗ 趋势研判：区间震荡。 ∗ 价格区间： 硅铁05合约价格区间5400-5900之间，硅锰05合约价格区间在5700-6100之间 铁合金目前的矛盾是成本支撑与下游终端库存累库之间的博弈，硅锰还面临自身高库存的压力，但锰矿报价 坚挺，形成底部有成本支撑，上方有压力的震荡格局。 供应端，铁合金利润回升但仍未摆脱亏损区间，铁合 金产量减产至目前的状态下继续大幅 ...

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——维持震荡走势 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间，产能扩张周期也 ...

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂期货价格呈现大幅减仓下降态势。展望后市，春节前夕碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将暂无，整体 以降低波动率为主；而节后则将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂资源释放进度、供需两端的检修排产情况、终端新 能源汽车的产销情况，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，当前国内可售锂精矿库存暂时平稳。国内江西锂矿事件的进展，建议市场参与者通过政府官网关注 安评和环许的公示和进展，规避不实信息误导下的非理性决策行为。供给端，部分锂盐厂停产检修时间安排 在春节前后，后面需关注春节后复产情况；需求端，当前春节前下游补库已经结束，市场主要焦点在于新能 源汽车的产销情况，建议后续持续关注。 技术面，碳酸锂期货的历史波动率再创历史新高，隐含波动率处于下降态势，预计后续波动率大幅回落可能 性持续存在；下方关注12万左右的支撑位。 综合研判，春节前下游补库备货情况已结束，而春节长假期间不确定性因素较多，因此建议在春节前夕逐步 降低仓位，以轻仓或空仓状态过节，规避长假持仓风险。同时，当前碳酸锂期货市场波动率处于历史高位， 波动率进一步上行空间有限，建议关注卖波动率策略的布局机会。 中长期维度，储能 ...

南华期货白糖产业周报 ——警惕原糖走弱拖累内盘 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 我们认为市场交易的重点来自于当前价格是否开启触底反弹？当前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几 点： 1、05合约的价格能否触底反弹？目前05合约明显贴水广西糖价格，但是与巴西配额外进口价格类似，因此后 续价格跟随原糖价格波动的概率还是比较高。上周白糖期货基本持平，多空主力持仓均无明显变化。当前国 内白糖需求一般，企业反映节前需求冷淡，当前国内白糖需求一般，国际原糖价格偏弱运行，预计对国内白 糖造成拖累。预计国内白糖进一步上行空间有限，上方60日均线压力较大。 2、国际市场15美分为什么站不住？上周国际原糖价格跌破前期14.5-15美分的震荡区间 ，周五收盘14.14美 分。由于巴西糖的出口成本在15.2美分，当前糖价已经连续4次冲上该价格后被压制。由于全球过剩影响， 15.2美分的成本线位置可能在未来较长一段时间不是成为支撑，而是变成了压力。 巴西糖配额外进口利润（郑糖） source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 ...

南华期货苹果产业周报 ——节前备货尾声，成交氛围偏弱 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 source： 上海钢联，南华研究 万吨 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 0 250 500 750 1000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 2026 12/01 12/15 12/29 01/12 01/26 02/09 02/23 -1000 -500 0 500 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 AP2603合约还有不到一个月的时间进行交割，市场当前重点关注春节旺季消费情况，上周产区节前备货 步入尾声，去库加速，但现货价格弱稳，果农降价促销心理显现，整体需求仍受到高价压制。从盘面看， AP2605强于AP2603，03合约减仓下跌，需要关注交割品短期问题是否得到改善。上周全国苹果去库环比加 . 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、当前产区春节 ...

临近年关，国内矿山减产范围扩大，焦煤供应呈现季节性收缩特征。进口煤方面，本周蒙煤通关积极性尚 可，日均通车维持在1000车以上。澳煤价格坚挺，印尼煤挺价，内外价格倒挂持续，预计后续炼焦煤到港量 仍将处于低位。近期焦炭第一轮提涨落地，入炉煤成本有所下移，即期焦化利润改善，预计后续焦企开工率 将小幅回升。高炉钢厂目前处于有序复产阶段，但铁水产量增幅较为缓慢，短期内焦煤供需格局依然偏松。 随着春节前后矿山减产范围进一步扩大，焦煤供需结构有望逐步改善。焦炭方面，供需两端同步恢复，基本 面矛盾暂不突出。后续需重点关注春节后矿山与高炉钢厂的复产节奏。在海运煤进口持续偏紧的背景下，若 节后国内矿山供应出现扰动，同时配合下游钢厂积极复产，可能引发短期焦煤供需错配行情。反之，若后续 出现"国内矿山复产超预期"与"宏观情绪转弱"的组合，煤焦价格或将面临较大的下行压力。 【风险点】宏观政策扰动 南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——关注节后供需博弈 张泫 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723 联系邮箱：zhangxuan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 ...

周度观点: 近期债市不空,即便没有降准降息这样直接的增量边际推动行情. 在本文所述逻辑和环境的支持下,利率向下走出技术性突破的可能性并不小。 近期关注：1）A股调整情况：2）地方两会:3 ）地缘事件变动。 回顾近期各类资产的异动，我们认为其本质上体现的是前期极致叙事的松动。 从长期视角来看,不论是美元信用弱化、全球贸易格局重构,还是AI资本开支 推动社会生产力发展,这些宏大叙事都没有被证伪或者出现转向的迹象。但正 确的叙事方向也不意味资产价格会无限上涨,当市场结构也走向极致化,可能 只需要一些细微的边际变量，就能够推动行情出现阶段性反转。 具体来看,由于开年以来委内瑞拉事件和格陵兰岛纠纷的突然爆发,美元资产 在国际资产配置框架下的安全性明显下降,出于"避险"考量,资源品和贵金 属的价格得到进一步推升。但与此同时,抬升过快的价格以及迅速膨胀的投机 属性反过来与配置盘主打的"避险"发生冲突,使得"避险资产"本身不够安 全:一月以来金银、有色金属、美元的波动水平都在快速走高,而中证500尽 管不参与上述的宏大叙事,但流动性逻辑下也跟随美元同步升波。当长期的叙 事在一个更短的时间框架下出现了松动,资产也更倾向于体现出 ...