南华期货铁合金周报 ——下方受到成本支撑，上方受到下游累库压力 陈敏涛（Z0022731） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026/2/8 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 硅铁周度厂库库存季节性 source： 南华研究 钢联 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 4 6 8 10 硅锰周度厂库库存季节性 source： 钢联，南华研究 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 11/01 10 20 30 40 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 * 远端交易预期 1.2 交易型策略建议 【行情定位】 ∗ 趋势研判：区间震荡。 ∗ 价格区间： 硅铁05合约价格区间5400-5900之间，硅锰05合约价格区间在5700-6100之间 铁合金目前的矛盾是成本支撑与下游终端库存累库之间的博弈，硅锰还面临自身高库存的压力，但锰矿报价 坚挺，形成底部有成本支撑，上方有压力的震荡格局。 供应端，铁合金利润回升但仍未摆脱亏损区间，铁合 金产量减产至目前的状态下继续大幅 ...

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——维持震荡走势 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间，产能扩张周期也 ...

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂期货价格呈现大幅减仓下降态势。展望后市，春节前夕碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将暂无，整体 以降低波动率为主；而节后则将聚焦以下因素：国内外锂资源释放进度、供需两端的检修排产情况、终端新 能源汽车的产销情况，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，当前国内可售锂精矿库存暂时平稳。国内江西锂矿事件的进展，建议市场参与者通过政府官网关注 安评和环许的公示和进展，规避不实信息误导下的非理性决策行为。供给端，部分锂盐厂停产检修时间安排 在春节前后，后面需关注春节后复产情况；需求端，当前春节前下游补库已经结束，市场主要焦点在于新能 源汽车的产销情况，建议后续持续关注。 技术面，碳酸锂期货的历史波动率再创历史新高，隐含波动率处于下降态势，预计后续波动率大幅回落可能 性持续存在；下方关注12万左右的支撑位。 综合研判，春节前下游补库备货情况已结束，而春节长假期间不确定性因素较多，因此建议在春节前夕逐步 降低仓位，以轻仓或空仓状态过节，规避长假持仓风险。同时，当前碳酸锂期货市场波动率处于历史高位， 波动率进一步上行空间有限，建议关注卖波动率策略的布局机会。 中长期维度，储能 ...

南华期货白糖产业周报 ——警惕原糖走弱拖累内盘 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 我们认为市场交易的重点来自于当前价格是否开启触底反弹？当前影响白糖价走势的核心矛盾有以下几 点： 1、05合约的价格能否触底反弹？目前05合约明显贴水广西糖价格，但是与巴西配额外进口价格类似，因此后 续价格跟随原糖价格波动的概率还是比较高。上周白糖期货基本持平，多空主力持仓均无明显变化。当前国 内白糖需求一般，企业反映节前需求冷淡，当前国内白糖需求一般，国际原糖价格偏弱运行，预计对国内白 糖造成拖累。预计国内白糖进一步上行空间有限，上方60日均线压力较大。 2、国际市场15美分为什么站不住？上周国际原糖价格跌破前期14.5-15美分的震荡区间 ，周五收盘14.14美 分。由于巴西糖的出口成本在15.2美分，当前糖价已经连续4次冲上该价格后被压制。由于全球过剩影响， 15.2美分的成本线位置可能在未来较长一段时间不是成为支撑，而是变成了压力。 巴西糖配额外进口利润（郑糖） source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 ...

南华期货苹果产业周报 ——节前备货尾声，成交氛围偏弱 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 source： 上海钢联，南华研究 万吨 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 01/01 03/01 05/01 07/01 09/01 0 250 500 750 1000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 2023 2024 2025 2026 12/01 12/15 12/29 01/12 01/26 02/09 02/23 -1000 -500 0 500 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 AP2603合约还有不到一个月的时间进行交割，市场当前重点关注春节旺季消费情况，上周产区节前备货 步入尾声，去库加速，但现货价格弱稳，果农降价促销心理显现，整体需求仍受到高价压制。从盘面看， AP2605强于AP2603，03合约减仓下跌，需要关注交割品短期问题是否得到改善。上周全国苹果去库环比加 . 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、当前产区春节 ...

临近年关，国内矿山减产范围扩大，焦煤供应呈现季节性收缩特征。进口煤方面，本周蒙煤通关积极性尚 可，日均通车维持在1000车以上。澳煤价格坚挺，印尼煤挺价，内外价格倒挂持续，预计后续炼焦煤到港量 仍将处于低位。近期焦炭第一轮提涨落地，入炉煤成本有所下移，即期焦化利润改善，预计后续焦企开工率 将小幅回升。高炉钢厂目前处于有序复产阶段，但铁水产量增幅较为缓慢，短期内焦煤供需格局依然偏松。 随着春节前后矿山减产范围进一步扩大，焦煤供需结构有望逐步改善。焦炭方面，供需两端同步恢复，基本 面矛盾暂不突出。后续需重点关注春节后矿山与高炉钢厂的复产节奏。在海运煤进口持续偏紧的背景下，若 节后国内矿山供应出现扰动，同时配合下游钢厂积极复产，可能引发短期焦煤供需错配行情。反之，若后续 出现"国内矿山复产超预期"与"宏观情绪转弱"的组合，煤焦价格或将面临较大的下行压力。 【风险点】宏观政策扰动 南华期货煤焦产业周报 ——关注节后供需博弈 张泫 投资咨询资格证号：Z0022723 联系邮箱：zhangxuan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月8日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 ...

周度观点: 近期债市不空,即便没有降准降息这样直接的增量边际推动行情. 在本文所述逻辑和环境的支持下,利率向下走出技术性突破的可能性并不小。 近期关注：1）A股调整情况：2）地方两会:3 ）地缘事件变动。 回顾近期各类资产的异动，我们认为其本质上体现的是前期极致叙事的松动。 从长期视角来看,不论是美元信用弱化、全球贸易格局重构,还是AI资本开支 推动社会生产力发展,这些宏大叙事都没有被证伪或者出现转向的迹象。但正 确的叙事方向也不意味资产价格会无限上涨,当市场结构也走向极致化,可能 只需要一些细微的边际变量，就能够推动行情出现阶段性反转。 具体来看,由于开年以来委内瑞拉事件和格陵兰岛纠纷的突然爆发,美元资产 在国际资产配置框架下的安全性明显下降,出于"避险"考量,资源品和贵金 属的价格得到进一步推升。但与此同时,抬升过快的价格以及迅速膨胀的投机 属性反过来与配置盘主打的"避险"发生冲突,使得"避险资产"本身不够安 全:一月以来金银、有色金属、美元的波动水平都在快速走高,而中证500尽 管不参与上述的宏大叙事,但流动性逻辑下也跟随美元同步升波。当长期的叙 事在一个更短的时间框架下出现了松动,资产也更倾向于体现出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current fundamentals of the log market are relatively healthy, with low inventory, high daily average outbound volume, and firm spot prices. However, the recovery of shipping volume may suppress the subsequent upward space [2][6]. - The 05 contract is difficult to evaluate before its expiration. From the perspective of the monthly spread structure, short - selling does not have an advantage at present. Future decisions should be based on post - holiday inventory and the firmness of spot prices [7]. - The strategy of going long on dips can be considered, but due to the lack of liquidity, participation should be cautious [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 30th, the national log inventory was 2.42 million cubic meters, hitting a new low, while the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, remaining at a relatively high level. It is expected that the outbound volume will significantly decline next week as downstream factories start to have the Spring Festival holiday [2]. - In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine timber in Lanshan area continued to rise last week, and the prices of 3.9 - meter medium A and 5.9 - meter small A in Lanshan also increased by 10 yuan per cubic meter. Traders in Shandong offered relatively firm prices [2]. - Overseas shipping has changed. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were sent from New Zealand, 9 more than the previous period, indicating that the short - term shipping disruptions in New Zealand have basically ended, and the inventory problem may be alleviated in the future [2]. - The announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange in the middle of the week showed that most car - board delivery warehouses in the Yangtze River Delta region (excluding Shandong) suspended delivery business, which reduced the implicit cost of buyers taking delivery and boosted their willingness to take delivery on the futures market, thus increasing the valuation of the futures market [2]. - The overseas offer remained at $112, the same as the previous period [2]. - On the futures market, there was a trend of upward movement last week. The 03 contract reached a maximum of 813 yuan per cubic meter in the middle of the week, but on Friday, there was a significant reduction in positions and the price dropped to 784 yuan per cubic meter. During the transition of the main contract, the overall position was insufficient, and the liquidity was poor. Large - scale position increases or decreases would have a significant impact on the futures price [2][4]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: After breaking through the previous high, the price fell back. The position was low, and the liquidity continued to weaken [8]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis [9]. - Monthly spread strategy: Exit the 3 - 5 positive spread and wait and see. The monthly spread needs to observe subsequent policy adjustments [9]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - On December 25th, it was proposed to sell lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800. On January 29th, the put position was moved to 775, and on February 3rd, 2026, it was already profitable [10]. - On January 17th, it was proposed to go long on the 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower edge of the 03 - 05 range, and on January 26th, it was proposed to take profit [11]. - On January 24th, it was proposed to conduct range trading between 750 - 795, and on January 30th, it was revised to 775 - 810 [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: When the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short log futures according to their inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The recommended short - selling ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 810 - 820 [10]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and enterprises hope to make purchases according to orders, they can buy log futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The recommended buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is 760 - 765 [10]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The inventory reached a new low; the new announcement of the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased the buyers' willingness to take delivery; the spot price in Lanshan area increased, raising the valuation [12][16]. - **Negative Information**: Previously, buyers' willingness to take delivery was low, and sellers' delivery costs were high (this situation has been corrected); the shipping from New Zealand has recovered [13][14]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides detailed spot prices and basis information for different specifications of logs in various ports [14]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Funds continued to reduce positions and leave the market, and the current liquidity was insufficient [15]. 3.3.2 Basis and Monthly Spread Structure - Regarding the 3 - 5 monthly spread, it is currently recommended to wait and see. The 03 contract is fundamentally stronger than the 05 contract due to various positive factors mentioned above. The 3 - 5 monthly spread once reached 10 in the middle of the week and then fell back to - 4 on Friday [18]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta region is around 810 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, while the warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong is around 812 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyers' willingness to take delivery, calculated at a 10% discount on the spot price, is around 770 yuan (an increase of 10 yuan). When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [25]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously recovering. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta region has significantly improved the recent profit [26]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection - From February 7th to 16th, it is expected that 9 ships will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 340,000 cubic meters. From January 29th to February 4th, 13 ships were shipped from New Zealand [31]. - As of January 30th, the daily average outbound volume was 61,700 cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 100 cubic meters, indicating that the demand exceeded expectations. However, with the Spring Festival holiday approaching and subsequent ship arrivals, it is expected that the inventory will start to accumulate [31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - **Export Analysis**: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]

Group 1: Macroeconomics - The European Central Bank and the Bank of England maintained their benchmark interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its three key interest rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, while the BoE's decision, with four out of nine policymakers voting for a 25 - basis - point cut, signaled a dovish stance [1]. - The UK's GDP growth forecast was downgraded to 0.9%, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.3%, indicating weak domestic demand. The visit of UK's Starmer to China is seen as a practical choice to break through growth bottlenecks [2]. - The US 12 - month JOLTS job openings reached a new low since September 2020, and the US Challenger job cuts in January hit a record high for the same period since 2009, surging 205% month - on - month [4][5]. Group 2: Exchange Rates - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate showed a trend of first depreciation and then appreciation. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9408 at 16:30, down 32 basis points, and the night - session closed at 6.9363. The central parity rate was set at 6.9570, down 37 basis points [3]. - Due to weak US employment data and AI - related panic, the market's risk - aversion demand increased, supporting the US dollar index. The RMB's appreciation momentum may decline after the holiday as seasonal settlement demand weakens [3]. - Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at the 6.93 level [4]. Group 3: Stock Index Futures - The stock index fell collectively, with the large - cap index relatively more resilient. The trading volume in the two markets dropped to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The short - term stock index is expected to continue to adjust, with the large - cap index outperforming, but the adjustment range is limited [4][5]. Group 4: Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The open - market operation injected cross - festival funds, and the money market was stable. The yield of spot bonds declined across the board. The bond market may gain upward momentum as the A - share market is likely to adjust [5][6]. Group 5: Container Shipping (European Routes) - The main contract EC2604 of container shipping on European routes fluctuated widely. The market's core contradiction lies in the game between geopolitical risks and weak fundamentals. Short - term, it will maintain a volatile pattern with limited upside [6][7][8]. - It is recommended to shift long positions on the medium - term during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high levels. Short - term, consider shorting lightly at high levels [6][8]. Group 6: New Energy (Carbonate Lithium and Industrial Silicon) - Carbonate lithium futures prices fell, with a daily decline of 9.81%. The trading volume increased by 70.48%, and the open interest decreased by 30,100 lots. It is recommended to reduce positions before the Spring Festival to avoid risks [9]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices declined. They are expected to trade in a narrow range, with industrial silicon between 8300 - 9100 and polysilicon between 48000 - 52000 [10][11][13]. Group 7: Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fell. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to replenish inventory when prices decline. The copper market is affected by factors such as inventory changes and holiday - related demand [15][16][20]. - Aluminum prices may oscillate, with support at 23000 - 23500. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a long - term weakening trend. Cast aluminum alloy prices are also expected to oscillate [21][22][23]. - Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the future. Nickel - stainless steel prices are affected by the broader market and are expected to be weak and volatile. Tin prices are likely to follow the sector in wide - range adjustments [23][24][26]. - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lacking upward drivers before the Spring Festival [26][27]. Group 8: Oils and Fats, and Feeds - For oilseeds, the external market of US soybeans is strong. Domestic soybean meal is expected to rebound in the short - term, and rapeseed meal is difficult to have an independent upward trend. It is recommended to participate in long positions in spreads and single - side trades lightly [28]. - For oils, the short - term is expected to be in a consolidation phase. The overall situation in the first quarter is still supported, and short - selling is not recommended [29]. Group 9: Energy and Oil & Gas - Fuel oil is in a weak operation. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is gradually recovering, and the demand is mainly in the bunkering market. The long - term high - sulfur cracking trend is downward [31]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is stable. The inventory decline provides a slight boost [31][32]. - Asphalt prices are struggling to rise. The short - term is expected to be in a volatile state, with limited upside and downside [32][33][34]. Group 10: Precious Metals - Platinum and palladium prices in NYMEX retreated significantly. The short - term "tightening trade" does not change the long - term "loosening trend." Attention should be paid to position control [34][35][36]. - Gold and silver prices fell under pressure. In the short - term, they are weak and may continue to decline. In the long - term, the upward trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38]. Group 11: Chemicals - Pulp and offset paper futures prices rebounded from lows. It is recommended to hold short positions in pulp futures and consider short - term long positions in offset paper futures [39][40]. - LPG prices are affected by the US - Iran negotiation. Attention should be paid to the negotiation results [40][41][42]. - PX - PTA is recommended to be bought on dips. The processing fee of PTA is expected to narrow [43][44][45]. - MEG - bottle chips are weakly volatile. The short - term is expected to be in a range - bound state [45][46]. - Methanol is recommended to be observed on the long - side. 3 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads can be shorted, and the MTO spread can be widened [46][47][48]. - Plastics and PP are weakly volatile. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and focus on post - holiday inventory accumulation and demand recovery [48][49]. - Pure benzene and styrene are in a consolidation phase. It is recommended to observe in the short - term and pay attention to geopolitical and demand factors [49][50][52]. - Rubber prices are supported at the bottom. It is recommended to be lightly - positioned before the long holiday and consider option strategies [53][57][81]. - Urea prices are expected to correct in the short - term. It is recommended to exit long positions [57][58]. - Glass and soda ash are weakly volatile. Soda ash is in an oscillating state, and glass is in a situation of weak supply and demand [58][59][60]. - Propylene is affected by cost, supply - demand, and market sentiment. Attention should be paid to risks [60][61]. Group 12: Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a state of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weakly volatile. The price range of rebar 2605 is expected to be between 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils 2605 is between 3200 - 3350 [62]. - Iron ore is in a state of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the Spring Festival [63][64]. - Coking coal and coke prices fell. The short - term rebound has limited sustainability [64][65]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern with support at the bottom and pressure at the top. The price range of ferrosilicon 05 is between 5400 - 5900, and that of ferromanganese 05 is between 5700 - 6100 [65][66][67]. Group 13: Agricultural and Soft Commodities - Hog prices are in a bottom - grinding state. It is recommended to observe before clear demand signals and consider spread strategies [69]. - Cotton prices are expected to be strong but are restricted by the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton. It is recommended to buy on dips [70][71][72]. - Sugar prices are expected to have limited upward space, with pressure at the 60 - day moving average [72][73]. - Egg prices fell below the previous low. It is recommended to sell call options on JD2603 - C - 3100 [74]. - Apple prices are likely to be strong. The consumption peak is coming to an end, but the delivery contradiction provides support [81][82][83]. - Red date prices are expected to be in a low - level oscillation in the short - term and face pressure in the long - term [84][85]. - Log prices may rise. It is recommended to try long positions on dips and sell put options [86][87].