南华浩淞棕榈油期货气象分析报告 ——年底降雨回归，大部分地区土壤湿度暂时性好转 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月29日 本周重要气象提示 1、根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）的最新预测，10月开始南方涛动指数已经超出阈值1，厄尔尼 诺指数截至11月底为-0.55，拉尼娜现象已经形成，预计将持续到2026年初，但其强度偏弱，东南亚整体降雨 并没有明显偏差，目前对棕榈油产地影响有限。 2、本周天气来看，马来群岛降雨有所增加，本周降雨集中在马来半岛南部和印尼的卡里曼丹岛附近，马来半 岛南部地区土壤湿度明显好转。印尼中卡里曼丹岛、廖内地区年底出现大雨，明显缓解土壤湿度；马来的柔 佛、彭亨也出现短期大雨，暂时缓解土壤情况，但降雨持续性不足，后续进入2026年土壤依然有偏干风险， 后续仍需要留意马来半岛和印尼卡里曼丹岛西部的干旱问题。 3、短期灾害性天气扰动不足，持续关注土壤湿度落后地区，如持续不能好转，或影响明年后半年棕榈油产 量。 厄尔尼诺指数 source： 同花顺,南华研究 厄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The implied volatility has risen, and the market has seen a significant increase [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Option Market Data - Financial Options - 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 771,000 contracts this week, a -0.47% decrease from the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.88, higher than the historical average, and the put - call holding ratio last week was 1.01, also higher than the historical average [1] - Huatai - Baorui 300ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 952,900 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,334,700 contracts [1] - Southern China CSI 500ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,366,300 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,283,900 contracts [1] - Huaxia SSE STAR 50ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,210,800 contracts and an average daily open interest of 2,298,000 contracts [1] - Shenzhen 100ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 61,100 contracts and an average daily open interest of 117,100 contracts [1] - GEM ETF options had an average daily trading volume of 1,774,600 contracts and an average daily open interest of 1,807,500 contracts [1] - CSI 300 index options had an average daily trading volume of 91,900 lots and an average daily open interest of 197,700 lots [1] - CSI 1000 index options had an average daily trading volume of 226,500 lots and an average daily open interest of 332,900 lots [1] Option Market Data - Volatility - As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 15.33%, a 0.23% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of 50ETF options was 12.47%, a 0.14% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 18.88%, a 1.47% increase from a week ago [2] - In commodity options, the implied volatility of crude oil options was 15.53%, a 0.12% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of lithium carbonate options was 52.67%, an 11.30% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of rebar options was 25.43%, a 3.86% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of soda ash options was 24.79%, a 1.26% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of gold options was 25.43%, a 3.86% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of silver options was 57.34%, a 13.60% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of palm oil options was 16.62%, a -0.17% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of soybean oil options was 10.43%, a -0.52% decrease from a week ago; the implied volatility of rapeseed oil options was 15.26%, a 0.33% increase from a week ago; the implied volatility of rubber options was 18.83%, a 2.62% increase from a week ago [2]

宏观：双主线引爆市场：有色金属狂欢与人民币升值 【市场资讯】1）2026 年全国两会召开时间来了：政协 3 月 4 日，人大 3 月 5 日。2）财政 部：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，继续支持消费品以旧换新。 3）中国 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业 利润增速加快。工业生产和利润率的下滑是利润增速收窄的主因。4）香港财政司司长陈茂 波：三方面助力人民币国际化，吸引全球优质公司来港上市，开拓国际黄金交易新机遇。5） 克里姆林宫：俄美总统均认为以公投为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。特朗普称俄乌均 有意结束冲突，美乌将达成安全协议。6）芝商所 12 月 26 日发布重大保证金调整通知称， 将于 12 月 29 日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 金融期货早评 【核心逻辑】上周市场呈现有色金属强势上涨与人民币汇率加速升值的双主线特征。有色 金属板块中，白银表现尤为突出。本轮白银上涨是供需格局、资金动向及比价效应共同作 用的结果，但短期涨幅过高叠加明年 1 月大宗商品指数调仓带来的减持压力，需警惕回调 风险， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

2025 12 28 1 12 2 3 LPR LPR 12 T2603 1 2026 11 2 12 4000 MLF 1000 3 GDP 4.3% 3.3% Z0016413 gaoxiang@nawaa.com 4 20 2011 1290 2025 12 28 1. 1.1 T2603 108.28 0.19% TF2603 106.03 0.1% TS2603 102.546 0.06% TL2603 112.85 0.5% 0.8bp 1.84% 7bp 1.29% 1.1 111.20 111.40 111.60 111.80 112.00 112.20 112.40 112.60 112.80 113.00 107.70 107.80 107.90 108.00 108.10 108.20 108.30 108.40 T2603.CFE TL2603.CFE(RHS) iFind 1.2 2 105.75 105.80 105.85 105.90 105.95 106.00 106.05 102.40 102.42 102.44 102.46 102.48 102.50 102.52 102 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - This week's pulp futures prices reached a new high since April, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton on the 23rd, showing a wide - range volatile trend as expected. The main influencing factors include foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. [2] - It is expected that the pulp futures prices will continue to fluctuate in a wide range next week, with a possibility of a high - level decline. [3] - In the short - term, the futures prices are affected by the capital side, and the fundamentals are slightly stronger than before, with some support at the bottom. In the long - term, the impact of near - term warehouse receipts has been mostly priced in, while the supply of long - term warehouse receipts is uncertain, which brings some positive factors. The macro - sentiment may weaken due to the possible halt of the Fed's interest - rate cut process, but there may be positive policy factors in the domestic market. [4][5] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors this week are foreign market price support, the macro - sentiment impact of the RMB breaking 7, and capital fluctuations. The futures prices reached a new high, with the main contract rising to 5710 yuan/ton. Suzano's price increase in the Asian market in January and the RMB breaking 7 provided cost support and positive sentiment, respectively. Capital fluctuations led to wide - range volatility. [2] - From the fundamental perspective, China's pulp port inventory decreased by 8.7 tons this week, which is a significant de - stocking and is one of the reasons for the high - level volatility of futures prices. [2] - In terms of terminal demand, the operating rates of downstream paper types showed mixed changes, and the demand was relatively weaker than last week. The import price of softwood pulp increased by 0.02%, with a further narrowing of the increase, which still has a supporting effect but is difficult to drive the futures prices up further. [2] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not detailed in the document 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - For inventory management of enterprises with high inventories of pulp and offset printing paper, it is recommended to short pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums and reduce costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5500 - 5600 for pulp and 4350 - 4400 for offset printing paper. [9] - For procurement management of papermaking enterprises with low inventories, it is recommended to buy pulp/offset printing paper futures to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs. The recommended hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry intervals are 5000 - 5100 for pulp and 4000 - 4100 for offset printing paper. [9] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: The RMB breaking 7, Suzano's price increase of 20 dollars in the Asian market in January, and the further decline of port inventory [14] - **Likely Negative Information**: The relatively high valuation of futures prices and the shutdown plan of leading paper enterprises in the first quarter of 2026 [13] - **Spot Transaction Information**: The pulp price shows a range - bound trend, with the main contract range of [5550, 5650]. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations in the futures market, with a small amount of high - short strategies, and to wait and see for options. Temporarily wait and see for basis and arbitrage strategies. [13] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - The SP2605 contract continued to fluctuate in a wide range this week. The RSI indicator once reached the over - bought range and then declined. Currently, the technical indicators are slightly bearish. [20] 3.2 Base and Spread Structure - Not detailed in the document Chapter 4: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 4.1 Supply - On December 26th, the inventory was 190.6 tons (- 8.7), which is a significant de - stocking and has a positive effect. The warehouse receipts have reached an absolute low compared to the same period. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp has gradually converged to a normal level, which is positive. [32] - In November, the domestic monthly import volume of softwood pulp was 81.99 tons, an increase from October. The global pulp shipment volume to China increased by 3.85% month - on - month in November, which will put pressure on future de - stocking. [32] 4.2 Demand - The downstream finished paper inventories of enterprises continue to accumulate, and the profit margins have declined this week, which restricts the raw material replenishment actions of downstream enterprises. [32] - The operating rates and production of various types of finished paper show different trends, and the export and consumption also have their own characteristics, which are presented in the corresponding seasonal charts. [68][73][76][82]

南华期货原油产业周报 ——地缘驱动，油价低位震荡 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月29日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周原油市场的核心矛盾在于短期地缘风险溢价抬升与基本面偏弱之间的博弈。一方面，委内瑞拉相关船只 遭美方封锁、特朗普再度强化对马杜罗政权的施压，以及俄乌冲突中谈判进展有限、炼厂设施遭袭，均推升 了短期供应扰动与风险溢价，支撑油价偏强运行。另一方面，从价格表现看，WTI与Brent周度涨幅有限，反 映市场对地缘事件的持续性与实质性影响仍持谨慎态度。在全球需求弹性不足、供应端尚未出现系统性收缩 的背景下，地缘风险更多体现为情绪性支撑，尚难推动油价形成趋势性上行。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 原油波动率和VIX source： wind,南华研究,彭 ...

南华期货铜产业周报 ——持仓创新高，多空资金博弈加剧 南华有色金属研究团队 傅小燕 投资咨询证号：Z0002675 联系邮箱：fxiaoyan@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/12/28 第一章 核心矛盾与策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 上周美国初请失业金人数小于预期，降息概率小幅下修。据CME"美联储观察"：美联储明年1月降息25个 基点的概率为17.7%，维持利率不变的概率为82.3%。数据还表明，到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为 45.6%，维持利率不变的概率为46.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为7.7%。但市场并未过多解读。CFTC持仓 显示，Comex铜投机净多头资金继续增仓，价格顺势大涨。 基本面上，上游冶炼企业采购情绪较强，但中游电解铜买卖双方购销情绪偏弱，因为下游加工企业采购畏高 情绪仍在，实际成交量偏少，甚至有企业开始"躺平"，现货价格涨幅受限。LME铜注销仓单仍维持在 50000吨上下，局部供应紧张支撑中国保税区铜溢价回升，目前出口窗口依然打开。 CSPT不对2026年一季度设定现货采购指导价，打破往年惯例，表明当前铜价已超出企业认知，一季 ...

南华期货LPG产业周报 ——近端仍有支撑，预期承压 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响LPG价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端原油市场震荡反复：国际原油一方面承受供应过剩的基本面压力，另一方面持续受到地缘政治风险 事件的扰动。本周受美委影响周初延续上周的反弹，下半周整体偏震荡。 2）外盘丙烷走势坚挺：海外丙烷市场表现相对强势。美国本周在浓雾及假期影响下发运偏低，中东地区同样 发运量仍处于低位，供应偏紧格局延续。本周FEI及CP价格延续上涨，FEI升贴水18.75，CP升贴水50，反映 出国际市场结构性支撑仍存。 3）内盘基本面持稳：供应端到港量本周低位，港口库存延续去化；化工需求端，PDH本周继续上行至 76.32%，但行业持续处于深度亏损状态，加之市场传闻部分PDH企业计划检修，关注实际检修情况。 我们认为，LPG价格多数时间跟随外盘丙烷及原油走势波动，但 ...

——有重新转强的趋势 边舒扬（投资咨询资格证号：Z0012647） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月28日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 南华期货苹果产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响苹果价格走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、01合约最终会以什么价格结束？目前的基本面比较明朗，就是今年苹果整体有所减产，质量明显下降，库 存果中也有大量次果、果脯果汁果等。对标盘面的可交割果少是支撑盘面持续上涨的主要原因。从目前的趋 势看，供给的缩量给于的盘面价格只可能越来越高，因此01合约的价格最终还是将要不断创新高，也是有可 能达到12合约的水准，甚至超过。尽管有空头亏钱交货，但是否能够达到合格要求呢？因此01合约会继续走 交割逻辑，而不是当下淡季消费逻辑。 2、春节旺季消费好还是差？后续决定苹果价格因素将从供给转为消费。由于近几年都出现过远期合约坍塌的 情况，主要还是因为消费不及预期导致，由于水果类型越来越多，且消费者偏好出现改变，苹果的消费结构 出现较大变化，因此传统的消费旺季有时候也可能会出现旺季不旺的局面。由于大部分的苹果质量下降，市 场还是存在担心劣币驱逐良币的情况在未来会发生。 ∗ ...