Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to gradually peak, and the risk of further inventory accumulation will ease, with supply - side pressure gradually decreasing marginally. The industry is in a wide - range weak - oscillation stage with no significant driving force currently [4]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment and limited downward space for costs. Negative factors are the decline in production of downstream polysilicon and organic silicon enterprises, weakening demand [4][5]. Polysilicon - The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the expectation game of "November concentrated warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand", and the overall risk is relatively high [7]. - Positive factors include the potential for an industry capacity integration and clearance plan to improve the industrial pattern. Negative factors are the possible continuous inventory accumulation if the plan fails to materialize [8]. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8980 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan (-1.10%) daily and 200 yuan (-2.18%) weekly. The trading volume is 304,628 lots, up 32,817 lots (12.07%) daily but down 22,146 lots (-6.78%) weekly. The open interest is 248,019 lots, down 3,530 lots (-1.40%) daily and 22,940 lots (-8.47%) weekly [9]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots (-2.92%) daily and 2,233 lots (-4.83%) weekly [9]. 2. Spot Data - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions show different trends. For example, the price of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang remains unchanged, while the price of 553 in Tianjin drops by 50 yuan (-0.53%) daily and weekly [16]. - The price of organic silicon DMC rises by 1,600 yuan (14.35%) weekly, while the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 drops by 100 yuan (-0.46%) daily and 50 yuan (-0.23%) weekly [16]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipts - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 44,022 lots, down 1,323 lots from the previous period, with a decline rate of 7.32%. The warehouse receipt quantities in different delivery warehouses show different changes [27]. Polysilicon 1. Futures Data - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52,210 yuan/ton, down 445 yuan (-0.85%) daily but up 280 yuan (0.54%) weekly. The trading volume is 173,704 lots, down 76,062 lots (-30.45%) daily and 150,894 lots (-46.49%) weekly. The open interest is 137,091 lots, up 848 lots (0.62%) daily but down 1,377 lots (-0.99%) weekly [28]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots (0.9%) daily but down 1,660 lots (-16.85%) weekly [28]. 2. Spot Data - The price of N - type polysilicon shows little change. For example, the price of N - type re - feeding material is 52.3 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.1 yuan (0.19%) [41]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers drops. The silicon wafer price index is 1.27 yuan/piece, down 0.03 yuan (-3.00%) daily and 0.02 yuan (-2.00%) weekly [43]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 655 yuan/ton, up 1,390 yuan (-67.97%) daily and 1,065 yuan (-61.92%) weekly [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 8,190 lots, up 70 lots from the previous day [53].

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月18日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格延续调整回落，美联储官员内部分歧加剧，12降息概率预期已低于5成。"新美联储通讯 社"表示，不管降息与否，美联储12月会议都可能有至少3张反对票，其中明确支持降息的为特朗普任命的三 位理事，反对降息的为四位地方联储官员，而作为美联储副主席的杰斐逊，通常会支持主席鲍威尔的立场。 最终COMEX黄金2512合约收4045.1美元/盎司，-1.2%；美白银2512合约收报于50.05美元/盎 司，-1.25%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约收929.46元/克，-3.09%；SHFE白银2512合约收11933元/千 克，-4.08%。 南华贵金属日报：黄金&白银：12月降息预期分歧大 贵金属延续调整回 落 【降息预期与基金持仓】 12月降息预期摇摆不定。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储12月11日维持利率不变概率57.1%，降 息25个基点的概率为42.9%；美联储1月29日维持利率不变概率35.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为48.2%， 累计降息50个基点的概率1 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on US economic data and the impact of the government shutdown; in China, pay attention to policy support due to a marginal slowdown in the economy [1]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to strengthen with the weakening of the US dollar index and seasonal effects, but caution is needed before new data is released [2]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate, with a focus on overseas variables such as US economic data, NVIDIA's Q3 earnings, and Sino - Japanese relations [5]. - Hold medium - term long positions in Treasury bonds, as they may benefit from weakening risk sentiment in the capital market, but short - term fluctuations are expected [5]. Commodities - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut, but may rise in the long term [13]. - Copper prices lack drivers and are expected to have a technical adjustment; aluminum may experience high - level oscillations; zinc, lead, and tin are expected to oscillate; nickel and stainless steel are at the bottom with limited further decline space; lithium carbonate may be over - inflated and risky for chasing highs; industrial silicon may have wide - range oscillations, and polysilicon may be weaker [17][18][24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to oscillate within a range, with support from raw material costs and suppression from inventory [29]. - Iron ore has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and opportunities for shorting at high levels can be considered after the basis is repaired [31]. - Coking coal and coke may face short - term adjustment pressure but have limited downside space in the long term, and can be considered for long positions when the price approaches the lower end of the range [34]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to oscillate weakly due to high inventory and weak demand [36]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is in an oscillating and pressured state, with short - term attention on the support at $63 and long - term focus on geopolitical risks and macro - funds' hedging trends [38]. - LPG is expected to oscillate strongly; PX - PTA is expected to oscillate strongly with cost; MEG can be considered for selling call options to express a bearish view; methanol 01 may continue to decline; PP's short - term supply - demand situation has improved, and a 1 - 5 positive spread is supported; PE's short - term supply - demand has slightly improved, but the medium - long - term pattern is weak; pure benzene and styrene may have limited rebound height; fuel oil's high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking has upward momentum; asphalt's short - term bottom space is limited, and winter - storage willingness should be noted; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda have their own characteristics in terms of supply, demand, and price trends [39][41][49]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products - Pulp and offset paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward - shifted price center; logs can be considered for a 01 - 03 reverse spread strategy; propylene is expected to oscillate [70][72][75]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Overseas: The US government shutdown has ended, and attention should be paid to economic data and the impact on the economy. Fed personnel changes have attracted market attention, and if Hassett is elected as the Fed chair, it may further open up the space for interest rate cuts. - Domestic: The economy shows a marginal slowdown, and the intensity and effectiveness of policy support are the focus [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB has strengthened against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar index, the guidance of the central parity rate, and market settlement support. Attention should be paid to US employment data and domestic corporate settlement willingness [2]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. The overall market sentiment was relatively stable, and short - term oscillations are expected, with a focus on overseas variables [5]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose slightly, and in the short term, they may continue to oscillate, while in the medium term, they may rise with fundamental support [5]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to adjust due to divergent expectations of a December interest rate cut. Long - term funds' gold ETF holdings decreased, and silver ETF holdings remained stable. Attention should be paid to US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [13]. Copper - Copper prices declined slightly, with an increase in warehouse receipts and a decrease in basis. The supply was relatively stable, and the demand showed some improvement, but the price lacked a clear driver [17]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum prices declined due to profit - taking by some funds. The supply was expected to be tight overseas, but domestic demand was weak. Alumina was in an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy had certain support [18]. Zinc - Zinc prices oscillated narrowly. The smelting end had a strong demand for ore, and the TC decreased in November. The inventory situation needed to be observed, and the market had large differences between bulls and bears [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel and stainless steel prices were weak, with cost support weakening. The 12 - month interest rate cut expectation was uncertain, and the demand for nickel and stainless steel was weak [22]. Tin - Tin prices oscillated narrowly. The supply was weaker than the demand due to limited resumption of production in Wabang. It was recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly, but the downstream had no intention to replenish inventory. There was an over - inflation risk, and caution was needed when chasing highs [24]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon had a weak supply - demand pattern and was expected to oscillate widely. Polysilicon had a weak fundamental situation and was expected to oscillate weakly [25]. Lead - Lead prices were under pressure due to inventory accumulation. The supply was gradually returning to balance, and it was expected to oscillate [27]. Black Metals Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded slightly, with a marginal improvement in the supply - demand balance of rebar and high inventory pressure on hot - rolled coils. The cost of iron ore was under pressure, and the profit of steel enterprises was declining [29]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded significantly, with an increase in shipping volume and a decrease in arrival volume. The supply was strong, the demand was weak, and the inventory was accumulating. It was recommended to short at high levels after the basis was repaired [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices fell below the key support level. The supply of coking coal was marginally relaxed, and the demand was seasonally weak. However, the price had limited downside space in the long term [34]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese prices rebounded slightly due to environmental inspections, but the high - inventory situation remained unchanged. The demand was expected to decline, and they were expected to oscillate weakly [36]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices declined slightly, with a supply - demand imbalance and geopolitical risks. The price was expected to oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the support at $63 [38]. LPG - LPG prices rose, with a decrease in supply and an increase in demand. The inventory was decreasing, and it was expected to oscillate strongly [40]. PX - PTA - PX - PTA prices rose, with a strengthening of the aromatics blending logic and an improvement in the supply - demand of PTA. The processing fee was repaired, but the oversupply expectation remained [45]. MEG - Bottle Chips - MEG prices rebounded due to supply - side accidents. The demand was relatively stable, and it was recommended to sell call options to express a bearish view [49]. Methanol - Methanol prices continued to decline, with pressure on the 01 contract due to high supply and limited cost support. It was recommended to hold short positions and consider reverse spreads [51]. PP - PP prices oscillated at the bottom, with an increase in supply and a slight increase in demand. The cost support was strengthening, and a 1 - 5 positive spread was supported [54]. PE - PE prices rebounded slightly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth. The short - term supply - demand improved slightly, but the medium - long - term pattern was weak [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices rebounded at a low level, but the fundamentals did not change significantly, and the rebound height was limited [59]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil cracking was bearish due to weak demand, and low - sulfur fuel oil cracking had upward momentum due to supply reduction expectations [60][63]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices fell, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand. The inventory structure improved, and the short - term bottom space was limited. Attention should be paid to winter - storage willingness [64]. Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices were limited by high supply and cost support; glass prices were under pressure due to high inventory and weak production and sales; caustic soda prices were affected by high supply and weak downstream replenishment [66][68][69]. Pulp, Wood, and Related Products Pulp and Offset Paper - Pulp prices were slightly affected by macro - sentiment and inventory, with some support from supply - side factors. Offset paper prices continued to decline due to lack of fundamental support [70]. Logs - Log prices were low - volatility, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity [72]. Propylene - Propylene prices oscillated, with a supply - demand balance of supply reduction and demand increase. The demand side was affected by PP and other downstream industries, and it was expected to oscillate [75].

股指期货日报 2025年11月17日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 股指缩量调整，中日关系恶化军工领涨 市场回顾 今日股指震荡为主，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.65%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落472.88亿元。期 指方面，IM缩量下跌，其余品种均放量下跌。 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.89 | -1.12 | -0.50 | -0.26 | | 成交量（万手） | 11.4292 | 5.7196 | 11.6917 | 19.7327 | | 成交量环比（万手） | 0.4303 | 0.8963 | 0.0305 | 0.4748 | | 持仓量（万手） | 27.2721 | 10.1114 | 24.5834 | 35.5153 | | 持仓量环比（万手） | 0.7845 | 0.3993 | 0.0816 | -0.2069 | 重要资讯 1. 文化和旅游部郑重提醒中国游客近期避免前往日本旅游，已在日中国游客 ...

寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2200-2400 | 15.50% | 5.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱产业风险管理日报 烧碱风险管理策略建议 2025/11/17 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润，弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2400-245 0 | | | 产成品库存偏高，担心烧碱价格下跌 | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若烧碱上涨 ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/17 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周一期债开盘后冲高，此后窄幅震荡，品种全线收涨。资金面再度收紧，DR001在1.51%附近。公开市场逆 回购2830亿，6M买断式逆回购8000亿，超额续作5000亿，净投放9631亿。 重要资讯： 受中日关系恶化影响，A股今日走弱，对债市略有助益。若资本市场风险情绪持续走弱，债市或能继续受益， 但当前资金面再度转紧，一定程度上不利于市场拓展空间。短期债市仍然缺乏热点，预计维持震荡，中期在 基本面支持下仍有上涨空间。操作上，中期多单继续持有，短线低位多单可逢高了结。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-14 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.478 | 102.446 | 0.032 | TS合约持仓(手） | 82762 | 80625 ...

油脂产业风险管理日报 2025/11/17 陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 油脂价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆油：8000-8500 | 11.5% | 2.4% | | 菜油：9300-10300 | 10.4% | 0.1% | | 棕榈油：8400-9000 | 20.2% | 24.1% | source： 南华研究 油脂套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保 | 买卖 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 敞口 | | 工具 | 方向 | （%） | 间 | | 贸易商库存 | 油脂库存偏高，担心油脂价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据在企业库存情况，做空豆油期货来锁定利 | Y260 | 卖出 | 25% | 8400-850 | | 管理 | | | 润，弥 ...

南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/11/17 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫：Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1100-1350 | 36.02% | 69.61% | | 焦炭 | 1550-1850 | 28.42% | 60.19% | source： 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 建议套保 | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | 比例 | 间 | | 库存套 保 | 钢厂盈利边际收缩，焦企提涨难度增大，焦企担心未来销售价格下降，想提前锁定焦炭销售价格 | 多 | 做空焦炭260 1合约 | J2601 卖出 | | 25% | （1780，18 30） | | | | | | | ...

俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 联系邮箱：yjc@nawaa.com 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月17日 纸浆、胶版印刷纸近期价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 纸浆 | 4750-5600 | 9.88% | 8.74% | | 胶版印刷纸 | 4150-4350 | 9.10% | 48.83% | source： Wind、同花顺iFinD、南华研究 造纸产业风险管理日报 纸浆、胶版印刷纸风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | SP2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 5500-5600 | | 管理 | 纸）库存高位，担心 | 多 | 做空纸浆/胶版印刷纸期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

尿素产业风险管理日报 2025/11/17 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 联系邮箱：zhangbo2022@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 尿素价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 1650-1950 | 27.16% | 62.1% | | 甲醇 | 2250-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source： 南华研究 【利多解读 】 尿素目前出口已经证实。尿素期货在市场投机性偏强背景下阶段性投机定价为主，因此预计期货呈现宽幅震 荡的格局，下方支撑有所增强。 【利空解读】 受国内政策压制，协会要求工厂低价销售尿素，给现货情绪带来负面影响。 尿素套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 ...