Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. Core Views - The US government shutdown is likely to end, which may boost market sentiment. The US dollar index may face downward pressure, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift" [3][4]. - Stock index futures are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with the support from policies and the impact of the end of the US government shutdown on market sentiment [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and mid - term long positions can be held [5]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, while alumina is in a weak operation; zinc is in a strong - side oscillation; nickel and stainless steel have limited upward momentum; tin is expected to run strongly; lead is in a strong - side oscillation [6][7][9][10][11][17]. - In the black market, steel products are expected to oscillate within a certain range, iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, coking coal and coke are in an adjustment phase, and ferroalloys are expected to oscillate [19][20][21][23]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term; LPG is affected by the decline of crude oil; PTA - PX is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side; methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support; PP and PE are in a bottom - side and low - level oscillation respectively; pure benzene and styrene have limited upward momentum; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a low - level game with a weak expectation [25][26][29][32][35][37][38]. - In the agricultural product market, pigs are waiting for the bottom - building; oilseeds are waiting for the USDA report; oils and fats are in a short - term oscillation; soybeans are in a high - level oscillation; corn and starch are in a bottom - side oscillation; cotton is running strongly in the short term; sugar is concerned about the 5500 level; eggs are generally bearish in the long term; apples are running strongly [47][49][50][52][53][54][56][58][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic price index rebounds marginally, driven by low - base effect and anti - involution. Boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. Overseas, the focus is on liquidity tension, US government shutdown, and US dollar index rebound. The US government shutdown may end, and the labor market is cooling [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift", but the possibility of a sharp unilateral depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB in the short term is low [4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated yesterday, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking. The long - position entry willingness increased, and the index is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated yesterday. The central bank will maintain a suitable monetary and financial environment, but the market is expected to oscillate before the central bank releases new signals. Mid - term long positions can be held [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot market procurement sentiment slightly improved, and the futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation within the range of 86000 - 87000 [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, and the short - term chasing of high prices needs to be cautious; alumina is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cast aluminum alloy can be considered for a long - short strategy based on the price difference with aluminum [7][8][9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory may decrease. It is expected to have an upward drive [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak in the off - season, the cost support is loosening, and the upward momentum is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to run strongly, with a support level around 276,000 yuan [11][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a long - short game, with a short - term view of oscillating strongly, but the risk of a callback needs to be vigilant [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [14][15]. - **Lead**: The lead price is pulled up by long - position funds, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance of rebar has marginally improved, while the coil plate has high inventory and production. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upward drive [19]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price may have a short - term repair space, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in an adjustment phase. The short - term price may face pressure, but the medium - and long - term price decline space is limited, and they are suitable for long - position allocation [21][22]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are affected by high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side, and are expected to oscillate [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply overnight and is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term, with further downward space [25][26]. - **LPG**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and the domestic supply and demand situation has little change [26][27][28]. - **PTA - PX**: Affected by "anti - involution" rumors and demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side, but the excess expectation of PTA still exists [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support, and it is recommended to hold the previous short - call options and carry out a 12 - 1 reverse spread [32][33]. - **PP**: It is in a bottom - side oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remaining unchanged, and the upward drive being limited [34][35]. - **PE**: It is in a low - level oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand being difficult to change in the short term [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The upward momentum of pure benzene and styrene is limited, and the market is biased towards a bearish sentiment [38]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are in a low - level game with a weak expectation. Soda ash has cost support but limited upward elasticity; glass has a cold - repair expectation; caustic soda has an increasing market pressure [38][39][41]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building. The long - term can be bullish strategically, but the short - term is still based on fundamentals [47][48]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the USDA report. The outer - market soybean price is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward shift, and the inner - market soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different trends [49][50]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a short - term oscillation, lacking a clear drive [50]. - **Soybeans**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with the price being in a stalemate and the purchase by the state reserve limiting the downward space [51][52]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price is driven by the reduction of supply, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [52][53]. - **Cotton**: It is running strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [53][54]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the 5500 level, affected by factors such as production and export [56][57]. - **Eggs**: They are generally bearish in the long term, with the production capacity facing a turning point [58]. - **Apples**: They are running strongly, with the inventory lower than last year and the market trading actively [58][59][60].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.63% today. Based on the night - session prices of adjacent trading days, it rose 0.83% [1][4]. - Among the sector indices, all sectors increased. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.75% (or 90.00% based on night - session prices), and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.07% [1][4]. - Among the theme indices, only the Economic Crops Index fell by - 0.29%. The rest of the theme indices rose. The Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.22%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest increase of 0.23% [1][4]. - Among the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Butadiene Rubber Index had the largest increase of 1.86%, and the Egg Index had the largest decrease of - 1.51% [1]. 2. Other Information - The calculation method of the price change in the report is the ratio of today's closing price to yesterday's closing price. The Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the spread during the contract roll - over and reflects the real return of investing in the commodity system [9]. - The contribution calculation method used in the report is a certain variety's daily price change / Σ (each variety's daily price change). Yellow data bars represent rising varieties, and blue data bars represent falling varieties [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report dated November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply of asphalt is decreasing due to refinery maintenance and suspension of production by some major refineries, but the resumption of production by Shengxing Chemical and the planned resumption of Jincheng Petrochemical will increase market supply. The demand is weak, mainly consuming social inventory, and the short - term peak season shows no unexpected performance. The cost - end crude oil is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is continuously weakening. In the short term, asphalt is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm. Long - term demand in the north will end with the drop in temperature, while the south may see increased consumption due to catch - up work [3] Group 4: Price and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.42% [2] Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low standing inventory for procurement, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 25 - 35 [2] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - No positive factors are clearly mentioned in the report Negative Factors - The asphalt consumption enters the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Shengxing Chemical has resumed production, and Jincheng Petrochemical has a production resumption plan [8] Group 6: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on November 12, 2025, was 3020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3340 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The North China spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The South China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Crack Spread - The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot to Brent crack spread was 59.8899 yuan/barrel, with a daily increase of 3.4658 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 31.0984 yuan/barrel [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Paper Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Price Forecast - Paper pulp price range (monthly): 4750 - 5600, current volatility: 9.14%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 5.86% [2] - Offset printing paper price range (monthly): 4150 - 4350, current volatility: 8.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 50.00% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5500 - 5600, OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) and sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) [2] Procurement Management - For low inventory, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5150 - 5250, OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) and sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Paper Pulp - Futures and spot prices: Futures show high - level oscillation, spot price is stable [3] - Supply - demand factors: Supply pressure reduces due to Maine pulp mill's temporary shutdown; demand is relatively negative in the short - term but overall demand recovers; port inventory is high, and its support is limited [3] Offset Printing Paper - Futures and spot prices: Spot price is stable after previous increases, futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [3] - Supply - demand factors: Market is in the cost - support stage, paper enterprises issued price - increase letters, but spot demand is weak, and the shutdown events have little impact [3] - Short - term trend: Both pulp and offset printing paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward central price [3] Group 4: Strategies Paper Pulp - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices and focus on 12 - 01 backwardation [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [5] Offset Printing Paper - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [6] Group 5: Market Factors Bullish Factors - Paper enterprises and pulp mills raise quotes [10] - Tariffs on the US remain [10] - US Magnolia pulp mill's temporary shutdown [10] Bearish Factors - Overseas shipping costs may decrease [10] - High - level port inventory is difficult to deplete [10] - Four major paper enterprises issued shutdown announcements [10] Group 6: Price and Inventory Data Price Data - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices, price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [13] - Pulp and double - offset paper spot prices, regional price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [14] Inventory Data - Pulp inventory in China (weekly) [11] - Pulp inventory warehouse receipts [15] Group 7: Basis Data - Pulp basis daily changes and seasonal data [8][9] - Offset printing paper basis daily changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The stock index oscillated today, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking again. The dividend index led the rise, and market sentiment was cautious. However, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the open interest increased, indicating that the willingness of long - positions to enter the market strengthened, showing significant long - short game characteristics. The sharp drop in US ADP private sector employment hinted at a continued cooling of the US labor market, raising expectations of a Fed rate cut. The potential end of the US government shutdown also boosted market sentiment. In China, on one hand, the continuous high - level oscillation of the index increased the willingness of funds to take profits, creating callback pressure. On the other hand, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report emphasized strengthening expectation guidance, and policy expectations provided solid support for the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week, which may provide new trading clues if it shows improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index oscillated today, with the broader - market index relatively stronger. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.13%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 485.52 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with increasing volume, while other varieties fell with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy report stated that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest - rate ratio should be maintained. It also plans to develop the "science and technology board" of the bond market, use risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and formulate a development plan for financial technology during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and promote the application of large AI models in the financial field in a steady and orderly manner. - The "small non - farm" ADP private sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years [3]. Strategy Recommendation Hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the intraday percentage changes, trading volumes, trading volume changes compared to the previous period, open interests, and open interest changes compared to the previous period of IF, IH, IC, and IM [5]. Spot Market Observation The table shows the percentage changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, the trading volume of the two markets, and the change in trading volume compared to the previous period [6]. Other Data Presentations There are also data presentations on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength comparisons, premium and discount rates of different stock index futures, and price - earnings ratios of different stock indexes, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [7][8][9]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. Although the policy has room for further easing, the market is likely to remain volatile until the central bank sends new signals. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate. Long - term bonds rose in the morning but fell in the afternoon, with all varieties slightly up. The funding situation eased, with DR001 dropping to 1.42%. There were 195.5 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [1] 2. Important Information - The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates and conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [2] 3. Market Analysis - Today, the funding situation eased, but the bond market remained volatile. The morning rise was partly driven by the decline in the A - share market, but the momentum did not last. The central bank's report indicates a suitable monetary and financial environment, so liquidity is not a concern. However, the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio is emphasized, meaning that the market interest rate outpacing the policy rate and excessive compression of the long - short spread are not desired by regulators [3] 4. Data Table - **Contract Price Changes**: TS2512 rose 0.014 to 102.474, TF2512 rose 0.03 to 105.965, T2512 rose 0.025 to 108.52, and TL2512 rose 0.09 to 116.43 [4] - **Contract Position Changes**: TS contract positions decreased by 157 to 85,109, TF contract positions increased by 1,139 to 167,869, T contract positions increased by 2,700 to 291,371, and TL contract positions decreased by 568 to 183,158 [4] - **Base Spread Changes**: TS base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0058 to - 0.0153, TF base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0057 to - 0.0178, T base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0464 to 0.0666, and TL base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0684 to 0.187 [4] - **Trading Volume Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 8,335 to 20,087, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 8,173 to 40,159, T main contract trading volume increased by 3,414 to 55,607, and TL main contract trading volume increased by 14,105 to 87,575 [4]

Group 1: Main Views - The content that needs attention in the main body of this monetary policy report is relatively limited, and the report emphasizes internal certainty and focuses more on domestic demand. The probability of an increase in the aggregate policy has increased [1]. - The column content is the focus of this report. Columns 1, 2, and 4 are logically related, aiming to stabilize market sentiment and reduce asset price fluctuations. Multiple perspectives for observing interest - rate comparisons are proposed, continuing the central bank's work direction in recent years [1]. - The stability of the net interest margin (banking system) is a prerequisite for the monetary policy to intensify and benefit the real economy, and the stability of liabilities needs to be considered. After the capital market expectations stabilize, there may be a new round of aggregate policy intensification accompanied by further adjustments to the deposit rates of large - scale banks, and interest rate cuts may occur [2]. - As the spread between the policy rate and the money market stabilizes and the interest - rate corridor compresses, the interest - rate market will gradually find its "anchor" [2]. Group 2: More Positive Tone Macroeconomic Outlook - The summary of the overseas situation in the third - quarter monetary policy report is weaker than that in the second - quarter report. The report points out that "global economic growth momentum is insufficient" in the third quarter, mainly due to the decline in GDP growth rates in the eurozone and the UK, and the decline in exports in the Asia - Pacific region despite the improvement in Japan's GDP. Geopolitical conflicts are emphasized as a potential risk to the stability of the political and financial system [3]. - Domestically, there are some structural improvements in investment, but the overall economic data has shown a weakening trend since the third quarter. The third - quarter report has a marginal change in the description of the aggregate policy, indicating that the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs to be strengthened [3][4]. Next - Stage Monetary Policy Main Ideas - The monetary policy will continue to maintain a moderately loose environment, with almost no new content in this part. The description of the monetary policy in the third - quarter report has been reduced by a paragraph compared with previous reports, possibly because there is little change in the current monetary policy tone and implementation, and the aggregate policy may be announced after the year - end important meeting [4]. Group 3: Column In - Depth Reading Column 1: Scientific View of Aggregate Financial Indicators - Social financing scale and money supply are more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. This column aims to manage expectations, urging the market to look at total financing data and smooth the impact of data on the market [10][11]. - The emphasis on aggregate financial data is reasonable because the economic growth engine has shifted. Advanced manufacturing and other industries are mainly supported by government financing, so focusing only on credit data may lead to a more pessimistic view of the economy [11]. - If credit improves significantly and continuously in the future, it may mean a transformation of the economic engine from structural industries to overall demand recovery. However, the growth of new social financing this year mainly relies on government bond financing, and the comparative advantage will disappear in 2026 [12]. Column 2: The Relationship between Base Money and Money - This column explains the difference between high - powered money and broad money and points out that the expansion of broad money mainly depends on the credit expansion of banks. It supplements Column 1 by emphasizing the importance of aggregate financial data such as money supply [16][17]. Column 4: Maintaining a Reasonable Interest - Rate Comparison Relationship - The column focuses on several aspects of interest - rate comparisons, including the linkage between policy rates and other rates, deposit and loan rates, the comparison effect of bank assets, term spreads, and credit risk [20]. - The stability of the net interest margin is a key factor for policy space. The trend of deposit - rate adjustment continues, and the actions of large - scale banks need to be monitored. Future deposit - rate adjustment analysis should consider the performance of the capital market [21]. - The central bank pays close attention to the shape of the treasury bond yield curve. When the term spread deviates significantly from the central level, the monetary policy may use structural means to guide market correction [22]. - Since the Lujiazui Forum in June 2024, the central bank has taken measures to strengthen the importance of policy rates and the smoothness of the interest - rate transmission mechanism. The spread between the policy rate and the market rate is becoming more stable, and the interest - rate market is gradually finding its "anchor" [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are strengthening. For London gold, the resistance is at 4150, and the support is between 4000 - 4050. For silver, the support is between 49.5 - 50, and the resistance is at 52.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, precious metals remained strong. The potential end of the US government shutdown eases the current market liquidity shortage and supports the Fed's December rate - cut expectation. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2 per ounce, up 0.27%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $51.075 per ounce, up 1.52%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 948.88 yuan per gram, up 2.67%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11880 yuan per kilogram, up 3.2% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectation slightly rebounded. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 32.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 13.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 35.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 18.2 tons to 591.9 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. In terms of events, on Wednesday, at 22:20, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; at 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on fintech; at 23:45, US Treasury Secretary Baisent will speak. On Friday, at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamark will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday, at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main continuous contract is at 948.88 yuan per gram, up 12.9 yuan or 1.38%. SGX gold TD is at 946.5 yuan per gram, up 13.48 yuan or 1.44%. CME gold main contract is at $4133.2 per ounce, down $23.9 or 0.57%. SHFE silver main continuous contract is at 11880 yuan per kilogram, up 161 yuan or 1.37%. SGX silver TD is at 11865 yuan per kilogram, up 139 yuan or 1.19%. CME silver main contract is at $51.075 per ounce, up $0.67 or 1.33%. SHFE - TD gold is at 2.38 yuan per gram, down 0.58 yuan or 19.59%. SHFE - TD silver is at 15 yuan per kilogram, up 22 yuan or - 275%. CME gold - silver ratio is 80.9241, down 1.5499 or 1.88% [6][7] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 89616 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1168.7184 tons, down 4.7997 tons or 0.41%. SHFE gold position is 131045 lots, down 5612 lots or 4.11%. SPDR gold position is 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons or 0.41%. SHFE silver inventory is 591.884 tons, down 18.094 tons or 2.97%. CME silver inventory is 14884.8306 tons, down 17.0023 tons or 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 822.42 tons, down 7.89 tons or 0.95%. SHFE silver position is 233702 lots, down 9515 lots or 3.91%. SLV silver position is 15088.632696 tons, unchanged [15] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 99.4822, down 0.1411 or 0.14%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.12, down 0.0032 or 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 47927.96 points, up 559.33 points or 1.18%. WTI crude oil spot is at $61.04 per barrel, up $0.91 or 1.51%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10840 per ton, down $34.5 or 0.32%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.13%, up 0.02 or 0.49%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.84%, up 0.01 or 0.55%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.55%, down 0.01 or 1.79% [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with prices oscillating between $63 - 65 this week and a slightly lower price center; the CP November contract price showing supply - side pressure; the US propane inventory at a historical high and demand being seasonally weak; and the domestic fundamental situation with a slight contraction in supply and relatively strong chemical demand [2][5]. - There are both negative and positive factors. Negative factors are the continuous losses in the domestic PDH sector and the shrinking Asian cracking profit which may reduce the demand for PG as a cracking substitute. Positive factors are the potential avoidance of a US government shutdown and the supply - decrease and demand - increase in the fundamentals this week, along with a rebound in civil gas prices [5]. Summaries by Catalog LPG Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.77% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 9.53% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to lock in profits and cover production costs, and sell the PG2512C4400 call option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio around 4000 to lock in procurement costs, and sell the PG2512P4000 put option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 50 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [1]. Industry Data Summary - The data shows the prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products on different dates from November 4 to November 11, 2025, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated submission of "anti-involution" with no actual progress, the susceptibility of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, sufficient supply of the main downstream PP with weak demand, and the low and weak external propane market with continuous losses in PDH profits [2] - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls leading to a rebound in spot prices, while negative factors include high supply despite PDH losses and weak downstream PP demand [3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The predicted monthly price range for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1261 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.6133 [1] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton and sell call options (PL2601C6200) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to long propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] Industry Data - On November 11, 2025, Brent crude oil closed at $65.09/barrel, up $1.15 from the previous day and $0.74 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $60.99/barrel, up $0.94 from the previous day and $0.56 from the previous week [6] - The price of propylene in the Shandong region was 5765 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 70 yuan/ton from the previous week; in the East China region, it was 5875 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [6] - The profit of PDH (using FEI) was - 275.32 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, down 60.06 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 32.47 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of PDH (using CP) was - 216.73 yuan/ton, down 56.42 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 25.62 yuan/ton from the previous week [6] Seasonal Price Charts - There are seasonal price charts for upstream raw materials (such as Brent, WTI, NWE NAP, etc.), mid - stream propylene prices (such as in Shandong, East China, etc.), downstream prices (such as PP, epoxy propane, etc.), and盘面 prices (such as propylene month - spreads, PP - PL spreads, etc.) [8][20][27]