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烧碱产业风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:59
寿佳露(投资咨询证号:Z0020569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2500-2900 | 22.00% | 39.1% | 烧碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 source: 南华研究,同花顺 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 产成品库存偏高,担心烧碱价格下跌 | | 为了防止存货跌价损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空烧碱期货来锁定利 润,弥补企业的生产成本 | SH2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 2800-285 0 | | | | 多 | | | | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本,若烧碱上 ...
南华期货假期效应显现
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:51
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - Near the holiday, there are signs of capital withdrawal, with a significant contraction in the trading volume of the two markets today. Technology concepts led the decline, while the dividend index rose. To cope with holiday uncertainties in the short term, risk aversion has increased. Although the stock market fluctuated frequently this week, as previously mentioned, the central point did not change much, showing a pre - holiday stable transition and wide - range shock market. There are only two trading days next week. If there are no unexpected factors, the stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Domestic PMI data will be released, and attention should be paid to its changes. If capital flow intensifies before the holiday, it may increase the stock market's amplitude. It is recommended to gradually lighten the position and buy the straddle option strategy next week [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index declined overall today. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed down 0.95%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 224.05 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties declined with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority will launch a RMB business capital arrangement from October 9 this year, replacing the existing RMB trade financing liquidity arrangement, and implementing multiple optimization measures and expanding eligible capital uses. - Seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Petrochemical and Chemical Industry (2025 - 2026)". - Trump announced that starting from October 1, a 50% import tariff will be imposed on kitchen cabinets, bathroom sinks and related building materials, a 30% tariff on imported furniture, and a 100% tariff on patented and branded drugs [3]. Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -1.04 | -0.47 | -1.47 | -1.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.1085 | 4.8226 | 13.6035 | 24.299 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -1.2397 | -0.3587 | 0.637 | 3.0154 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.9924 | 9.5988 | 25.2224 | 36.4864 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | -0.6449 | 0.1041 | 0.3365 | 1.1537 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.65 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -1.76 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.53 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21468.85 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (100 million yuan) | -2242.05 | [6]
南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:40
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current core focus of the market is on whether the supply of lithium carbonate can match the downstream demand increase from October to November. Near the "National Day" holiday, downstream enterprises still have restocking sentiment, and policies on new - energy vehicles and energy storage may support lithium carbonate futures prices. [3] - The report suggests focusing on two aspects: whether the downstream restocking sentiment can continue after the National Day and the implementation rhythm of the resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine. If downstream restocking weakens and there is no strong demand support, the price may turn down. [3] - From a multi - dimensional analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that before mid - October, the lithium carbonate futures price will fluctuate in the range of 68,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The strong pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 78,000 yuan/ton, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 26.2% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 35.9%. [2] - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 74,040 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 0, a daily ratio of 0.00%, a weekly change of 80, and a weekly ratio of 0.11%. Other contract data such as volume, open interest, and spreads are also provided. [9] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 40,329 lots, with a daily increase of 20 and a weekly increase of 845. [9] 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various types of lithium ores are given, including lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - alumina stone. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,875 yuan/ton, with a weekly decrease of 5 and a weekly ratio of - 0.27%. [19] - **Carbonate and Hydroxide Prices**: The average daily prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are provided. For instance, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 71,350 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 150 and a daily ratio of - 0.21%. [22] - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between different types of lithium products are presented, such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate. [25] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The average daily prices of downstream products like lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolytes are given. For example, the latest average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,650 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 and a daily ratio of - 0.12%. [27] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main contract and brand - based basis quotes are provided. For example, the basis quote of Tianqi Lithium Industry (LI2CO3≥99.8%, LC2507) is 300 yuan/ton. [28] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The daily changes in lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are presented, with a total of 40,329 lots today, an increase of 20 from yesterday. [30] 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ores (lithium spodumene and lithium mica) are shown in the form of a graph. [32] - **Import and Delivery Profits**: The import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate are presented in graphical form. [32][33] 3.5 Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce battery materials, different hedging strategies are recommended based on the correlation between product prices and lithium carbonate prices. For example, when product prices are not correlated, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be bought at 67,000 - 71,000 yuan/ton, and 40% of put options can be sold. [2] - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce lithium carbonate, to prevent price drops, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be sold according to the production plan, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be used. [2] - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory, 40% of the main futures contracts can be sold at 76,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and 60% of call options can be sold. [2] 3.6 Market Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Jiangxi lithium ore enterprises face time - node pressure to submit reports, which may cause temporary production suspension and affect supply. Policy support for new - energy vehicles and energy storage may extend the peak season and boost demand. [5] - **Negative Factors**: There is a risk that downstream restocking during the peak season may fall short of expectations, and the expected resumption of production at the Jianxiaowo lithium mine may increase supply. [6]
玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 10:35
玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/26 寿佳露(投资咨询证号:Z0020569) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 宏观预期和产业逻辑的矛盾;远月有政策预期和成本抬升预期,暂无法证伪;近端现实一般,需要观察旺季下中游的去 库能力 【利多解读】 成本仍保留抬升预期,影响远月定价;政策预期尚无法完全排除,供应端或需求侧故事或被反复交易 【利空解读】 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻璃 | 1000-1400 | 32.42% | 83.6% | | 纯碱 | 1100-1500 | 22.39% | 25.7% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 玻璃纯碱套保策略表 | | 行 为 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导 | | | | | | (%) | ...
南华原油风险管理日报-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:51
南华原油风险管理日报 2025年9月26日 杨歆悦(投资咨询证号:Z0022518) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 隔夜原油延续反弹态势,不仅突破前期高点,还打破了此前的震荡收敛格局,但整体仍处于横盘震荡大框 架内。此次反弹主要受俄乌地缘风险推动,乌克兰频繁袭击俄罗斯石油设施,包括新罗西斯克港这一俄最 大原油出口港,引发市场对俄石油供应下滑的担忧,叠加多头情绪偏强且小幅增仓,共同支撑油价走高。 值得注意的是,按此前地缘驱动节奏,当前原油反弹的时间与空间已基本到位,需警惕油价重复"反弹后 回落"走势、重回震荡区间。若无重大地缘事件,原油上方空间有限,大趋势仍为弱势,中长期或维持弱 势横盘或呈向下趋势,短期多空天平变化还需盘面及供应数据进一步验证。 美国原油周度出口量季节性 source: 同花顺,南华研究 万桶/天 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 09/01 200 400 美国馏分燃料油当周库存环比/MA4季节性 source: 同花顺,南华研究 千桶 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 01/01 05/01 ...
南华期货早评-20250926
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 03:18
金融期货早评 宏观:美国首申失业金人数下降 【市场资讯】1)美国第二季度 GDP 增速上修至 3.8%,创近两年新高,PCE 物价指数 2.6%。 美国上周首申人数大幅回落至 21.8 万人,为 7 月以来最低。2)所有在世的前美联储主席、 多位前财长和前白宫经济顾问致函最高法,不要解雇美联储理事库克!3)美联储理事米兰: 主张每次降息 50 个基点,通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。美联储金融监管副主 席鲍曼:就业市场"脆弱"证明理应进一步降息。美联储明年票委呼吁利率工具改革:美联 储是时候准备新基准了。4)历史罕见!白宫警告政府关门期间或永久裁员,预算僵局再升 级。5)美国被爆施压韩国将投资承诺提高近 2000 亿美元、要现金不要贷款。 【核心逻辑】7-8 月作为三季度经济运行的核心观测期,其披露的数据系统呈现出当前宏 观经济的复杂态势:一方面,经济增速边际放缓的压力已明确显现,地产拖累、消费支撑 弱化、投资增速下行等信号共同构成了这一态势的核心底色;另一方面,政策端的逆周期 调节已精准发力,供需两侧的托底政策正按序落地实施;更深层次看,数据亦揭示了金融 市场与宏观基本面的结构性互动。股票市场在经济 ...
锌风险管理报告
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 12:02
南华期货锌风险管理报告 2025年9月25日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号: Z0018441 林嘉玮 从业资格证号:F03145451 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2011】1290号 锌价格波动率(日度) | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 22045 | 21000-23500 | 7.74% | 3.0% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 锌风险管理建议(日度) | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高,担心价格下跌 | | 多 | 做空沪锌主力期货合约 | 沪锌主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 22700 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪锌期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低,担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪锌主力期货合约 | 沪锌主力期货合约 ...
南华商品指数:有色板块领涨,贵金属板块下跌
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 11:39
南华商品指数:有色板块领涨,贵金属板块下跌 王怡琳 2025-09-25 17:00:51 摘要:依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算,今日南华综合指数上涨0.96%。板块指数中,只有南华贵金属指数,下 跌-0.32%,其余板块均是上涨,涨幅最大的板块是南华有色金属指数,涨幅为1.67%,涨幅最小的板块是南华黑色 指数,涨幅为0.5%。 主题指数中,所有主题指数均有所上涨,其中涨幅最大的主题指数是能源指数,涨幅为 1.55%;涨幅最小的主题指数是煤制化工指数,涨幅为0.28%。 商品期货单品种指数中,涨幅最大的单品种指数是 国际铜,上涨3.59%,跌幅最大的商品期货单品种指数是黄金,跌幅为-0.61%。 > 南华期货 igger mind, Bigger fortun 智慧创造财富 南华商品指数日推 南华商品指数日报 2025年9月25日 南华商品指数市场数据 主要单品种指数收益率VS波动率 800 2006 2008 1000 10001 �������� 鬥背景展得英出荷花平台国企業最年美食品出品交易量最后需要的重量是一步就看展前第一次 主要单品种指数当日持仓额变化比例 "" " 無"葉"白菜業名最前最後半點是電影 ...
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 10:44
集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/25 俞俊臣(投资咨询证号:Z0021065) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 马士基10月中旬欧线现舱报价止降回升,且增幅较为明显;后两周,MSC欧线现舱报价跟进小幅回升。 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1250~1350 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1000~1100 | | source: 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格高开震荡。 ...
国债期货日报-20250925
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-25 09:47
国债期货日报 2025/09/25 徐晨曦(投资咨询证号:Z0001908) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 号 观点:关注央行态度 盘面点评: 周四期债早盘低开低走,午后大幅反弹,尾盘TL翻红,其余品种微跌。现券收益率日内波动较大,日终与昨 日相差不大。公开市场逆回购4835亿,超额续作MLF 3000亿,净投放2965亿。资金面仍然趋紧,DR001回 升至1.48%。 日内消息: 1. 贝森特:不理解鲍威尔为何"退缩",敦促年底前降息100-150个基点,正在面试11位美联储主席候选人。 | | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-24 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.3 | 102.324 | -0.024 | TS合约持仓(手) | 76969 | 75884 | 1085 | | TF2512 | 105.475 | 105.54 | -0.065 | TF合约持仓(手) | 151433 | ...