Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Scrap Steel Industry Weekly Report - Focus on Subsequent Changes in Steel Mill Profits [1] - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Yan Zhini [1] - Investment Consulting License Number: Z0022076 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - This week, the scrap steel market saw a simultaneous increase in supply and demand, with a decline in inventory and inventory-to-sales ratio, driving prices up slightly. The fundamentals of scrap steel are healthy, with strong support at the bottom, but the accumulation of steel inventory may suppress the upward movement of steel prices, and steel mill profits have also shrunk, so their willingness to raise scrap steel prices is low. It is expected that scrap steel prices will fluctuate within a range in the near future, and the spread between rebar and scrap steel may further narrow [3]. Summary by Directory Supply - This week, the scrap steel arrivals at 25 steel mills were 511,700 tons (+27,400 tons), and the average daily arrivals at Shagang were 11,800 tons (-2,700 tons) [2]. - On August 15, 2025, the scrap steel arrivals at 255 steel mills were 549,300 tons, a weekly increase of 54,841 tons; the arrivals at 132 long - process steel mills were 270,000 tons, a weekly increase of 18,891 tons; the arrivals at 89 short - process steel mills were 177,050 tons, a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [7]. Demand - This week, the daily consumption of scrap steel at 255 steel mills was 557,900 tons (+6,100 tons), with an increase in both long - and short - process steel mills [2]. - From August 7 to August 14, 2025, the daily consumption of scrap steel at 255 steel mills increased by 6,128 tons; at 132 long - process steel mills, it increased by 1,078 tons; at 89 short - process steel mills, it increased by 7,700 tons [8]. Inventory - The inventory at national processing bases decreased slightly, while the arrivals at steel mills increased. This may be due to the increase in the fear of price drops among bases after the decline in the futures market in the second half of the week, leading to the release of goods [2]. - This week, the scrap steel inventory at steel mills decreased. On August 14, 2025, the scrap steel inventory at 255 steel mills was 4,532,800 tons, a weekly decrease of 122,180 tons; at 132 long - process steel mills, it was 2,187,450 tons, a weekly decrease of 74,080 tons; at 89 short - process steel mills, it was 1,236,850 tons, a weekly decrease of 53,200 tons [2][8]. - The scrap steel social inventory decreased across the country. On August 15, 2025, the national scrap steel social inventory was 416,350 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,320 tons [9]. Price and Spread - The national Fubao comprehensive price index of scrap steel increased slightly. On August 14, 2025, the national non - tax - included scrap steel price index was 2,258.2 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 12 yuan/ton [3]. - This week, the iron - scrap spread slightly increased, and the rebar - scrap spread significantly decreased, indicating that the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel compared to hot metal has recovered, but from a profit perspective, the cost - effectiveness of adding scrap steel has decreased, and the profits of electric arc furnaces have shrunk [2]. - On August 15, 2025, the iron - scrap spread was - 111 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 6 yuan/ton; the rebar - scrap spread in East China (including tax) was 769 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton [9]. Steel Mill Profits - This week, the profits of both long - and short - process steel mills shrank. The profits of long - process large - scale steel products still ranged from 100 to 200 yuan. The profits of short - process steel mills shrank in many regions, with only an increase in North China. Among electric arc furnaces, there were still off - peak electricity profits in Hebei and Sichuan, while there were no off - peak electricity profits in Fujian, Guangdong, Hubei, and Jiangsu, but the decline was not significant, not reaching the level of significant production cuts in electric arc furnaces [2].

宏观周报 国内7月经济增速边际放缓 潘响（投资咨询证号：Z0021448） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月15日 摘要 国内方面，7 月经济数据已正式公布，从各项数值表现来看，经济增速呈现边际放缓态势。当前经济数据 虽在边际上呈现下滑态势，但不必过分焦虑。目前一揽子稳经济政策正逐步落地见效，除育儿相关支持政策 外，促消费等政策也在持续出台。若后续经济数据继续走低，相关政策有望进一步加码发力。8月12日，财政 部、中国人民银行、金融监管总局联合印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》，与此同时，财政部等 九部门共同发布《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》。两项政策是对前期《提振消费专项行动方案》 的具体落实，通过从供需两端发力促进消费。而《提振消费专项行动方案》的顶层设计表明，当前促消费政 策仍有较大发力空间。后续在健全最低工资标准调整机制、提升医疗养老保障能力、发展养老托育服务等领 域，预计会有更多政策出台，从而真正形成政策合力，推动消费需求持续改善。海外方面，9 月是否降息仍存 在不确定性，后续需重点关注美国经济数据的变化，以及杰克逊霍尔年会上鲍威尔的发言所释放的政策信 ...

南华期货沥青风险管理日报 2025年8月15日 凌川惠（投资咨询证号：Z0019531） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 沥青价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沥青主力合约 | 3400-3750 | 22.30% | 8.95% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 source： 南华研究 【核心矛盾】 沥青供给端保持平稳态势。而需求端因降雨天气影响，需求始终无法有效释放，而主要原因依旧是资金短缺 尚未改善，导致短期旺季并没有超预期表现。 库存结构上厂库压力较小，社库去库依然偏慢，投机需求走 弱，贸易商开始主动降库存，山东华东基差因开工率预期提升而走弱，裂解价差仍然维持高位；目前看需求 端仍受降雨影响，整体基本面环比转弱。成本端原油，因受到俄乌冲突缓和态势影响，地缘溢价回吐，缓解 了沥青成本端供应偏紧的预期。 沥青单边价格弱势回调，月差基差裂解均有一定程度走弱。中长期看，需求 端将随着临近秋季南北方施工条件转好，整体施工进入旺季，25年地方政府 ...

南华原油市场日报 ——盘面缩量反弹，美俄会谈成关键变量 2025年8月15日 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心观点】 1.短期多空博弈：技术修复与资金避险主导 短期原油呈止跌反弹态势，日线收于5日均线上方，下行压力边际缓解，核心驱动为"川普会"前空头主动 减仓 ——空头既锁定阶段性盈利，也规避会晤不顺的地缘风险，推动缩量反弹。但需注意，此次反弹未破 坏日线级别下跌趋势，需观察5日均线能否有效企稳，且5日与10日均线叠加区域构成关键阻力，量价背离 将加剧中期破位下行风险。 2.美俄会谈成中期方向关键变量 市场预判会晤结果中性偏空：若会晤为美俄破冰（如铺垫三方会谈），无紧张消息释放，原油将失去地缘 利好支撑；若地缘局势降温至停火导向，前期地缘溢价将逐步修复，盘面趋弱。仅当会晤超预期恶化（如 对俄加征二级关税、强化制裁），才可能触发地缘风险重定价，推动反弹并巩固7月震荡格局，此为短期唯 一明确利多场景。 3.基本面趋势性转弱成长期压制 当前基本面已明确转弱：需求端临近北半球夏季用油高峰拐点，边际走弱压力将显性化；供给端过剩风险 升温，市场对 ...

南华商品指数：农产品领涨，金银领跌 王怡琳 2025-08-15 17:01:37 摘要：本周，南华综合指数上涨13.09点，涨幅为0.52%；其中影响力最大的品种为棕榈油和纯碱，棕榈油品种指数 涨跌幅为5.11%，贡献度为0.23%；纯碱品种指数涨跌幅为4.73%，贡献度为0.15%。南华工业品指数上涨13.09 点，涨幅为0.36%；其中影响力最大的品种为纯碱和烧碱，纯碱品种指数贡献度为0.2%；烧碱品种指数贡献度为 0.13%。南华金属指数上涨28.41点，涨幅为0.44%；其中影响力最大的品种为碳酸锂，碳酸锂贡献度为0.45%。南 华能化指数上涨9.95点，涨幅为0.59%；其中影响力最大的品 南华商品指数周报 2025年8月15日 南华指数小组 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏(F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 摘要 周度数据综述 表1:南华商品指数周度数据 | 指数名称 | 本周收盘 | 上周收盘 | 涨跌点数 | 涨跌幅 | 本周最大值 | 本周最小值 | 振幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 1450~1550 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 1200~1300 | 集装箱运输市场日报 —— SCFI欧线降幅扩大 2025/8/15 source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格整体延续震荡走势。截至收盘，除EC2604合约略有回落，其 余各月合约价格均略有回升。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看，EC2510合约多头减仓959 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report - Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Ying (Z0016367) [1] - Investment Advisory License: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The stock market performed more optimistically than expected today, driven by fundamental confidence and high trading enthusiasm. Concept stocks boosted by favorable information led the market, with non - bank finance and technology - related industries leading the gains. Small - cap stocks showed strong performance due to positive sentiment and high - spirited funds. Looking ahead, the breakthrough of the pressure line should be monitored. Despite the optimistic sentiment today, it is not recommended to chase the market at present, and it is advisable to hold positions and observe. An insurance strategy of holding spot and buying put options is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index rose with shrinking volume today, and the market index attempted to reach new highs again. The trading volume of the two markets dropped significantly by 345.97 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with expanding volume [2] Important Information - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Promoting the Healthy and High - Quality Development of the Private Economy," was published in Qiushi Journal. China's year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July slowed to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles declined. From January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the production of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, while private investment declined. In July, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities showed wider month - on - month and year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year declines in housing prices in all tiers narrowed. Relevant national departments are researching and formulating policies and measures for the development of the marine industry and actively exploring ways to encourage central enterprises and social capital to participate in the development of the marine economy [3] Strategy Recommendation - Insurance Strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [4] Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | 0.80 | 0.34 | 2.11 | 2.16 | | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | 14.0755 | 7.7296 | 12.2047 | 25.7577 | | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.2994 | - 0.9794 | 0.9901 | - 0.8154 | | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | 26.8828 | 10.4541 | 22.8854 | 38.1845 | | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.3048 | - 0.0183 | 1.3297 | 1.6552 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.83 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 1.60 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 6.85 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 22446.12 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 345.97 | [5]

一、摘要 当周（8月11日~8月14日）BDTI原油运价指数收于1019点，环比上涨1.19%（涨幅缩窄），同比上涨 12.72%（涨幅扩大）。 截至8月8日当周，发运量"两增两降"。美国增11.69%、俄罗斯增18.95%、沙特降5.14%、阿联酋降 20.83%。 截至8月13日，区域船舶通行量上，红海区域原油船舶、亚丁湾区域原油船舶均继续增加，对油轮用船需求 明显增加，继续利多BDTI运价指数。但VLCC型油轮用船需求下降，运距回落，令指数涨幅受限。 重要事件关注：OPEC+原油增产、美国关税政策、美联储降息预期 二、BDTI原油运价指数走势：当周运价继续反弹，环比涨幅缩窄，同比涨幅扩大 截至2025年8月14日，BDTI原油运价指数收于1019点，环比上涨1.19%，同比上涨12.72%。 从季节性走势看，当周运价涨幅缩窄。 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI） 3000 波罗的海运费指数：原油（BDTI）季节性 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 3000 source： 同花顺,南华研究 15/12 17/12 19/12 21/12 23/12 5 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded close to the previous high after the adjustment in the USDA report. There is an optimistic outlook for the new - year cotton production. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the downstream market shows marginal improvement, but the current recovery is limited. The USDA's August report tightened the global new - year cotton supply - demand expectations. The low inventory of old cotton supports near - month contracts, and the short - term cotton price center may rise with the marginal improvement in the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of August 7, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.7%, 6.7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [2]. Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and the same year - on - year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.63% month - on - month and an increase of 1.80% year - on - year; the textile and clothing export volume was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.06% year - on - year [2]. Inventory - As of the end of July, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [2]. International Market US Supply - As of August 10, the cotton budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points behind year - on - year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 8%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 53%, a decrease of 2 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7 percentage points year - on - year [2][3]. US Demand - From August 1 to 7, the net signing of US 25/26 - year upland cotton was 54,885 tons, a significant increase month - on - month, with 41,345 tons shipped; the net signing of Pima cotton was 476 tons, with 2,722 tons shipped; the net signing of 26/27 - year upland cotton was 249 tons, and there was no signing of 26/27 - year Pima cotton [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 8, the new - year cotton sowing area in India reached 10.7 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.7% year - on - year [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year; in June, India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [3]. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 14,120 yuan, up 320 yuan with a 2.32% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 05 contract closed at 14,090 yuan, up 340 yuan with a 2.47% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,835 yuan, up 195 yuan with a 1.43% increase. The CC Index 3128B was 15,216 yuan, up 38 yuan with a 0.25% increase; the CC Index 2227B was 13,335 yuan, up 26 yuan with a 0.2% increase; the CC Index 2129B was 15,486 yuan, up 28 yuan with a 0.18% increase. The FC Index M was 13,576 yuan, up 156 yuan with a 1.16% increase; the FCY Index C32s was 21,255 yuan, up 68 yuan with a 0.32% increase. The cotton yarn futures price was 20,185 yuan, up 580 yuan with a 2.96% increase, and the spot price was 20,720 yuan, up 100 yuan with a 0.48% increase [22][26].

南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月15日 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78950 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2510C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...