南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——成本抬升，供应缩减 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年02月01日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）成本端成为短期主要扰动：成本端原油丙烷中长期来看依然会受到基本面及地缘的共同影响，但短期地缘 占据主导，周内美伊局势持续发酵，推动原油价格上涨，如果美国持续对伊朗进行威胁，风险溢价短期依然 会存在。 2）供应收缩带来供需差好转：本周供需差大幅回落，主要受到PDH检修的影响，近期金能、万华、巨正源等 陆续进入检修状态，PDH开工从76%大幅下行至60%，目前看金能、巨正源等预期都要检修到2月份，短期依 然提供支撑，但需关注丙烯价格上涨后下游的接受度。 3）情绪传染：近期盘面情绪同样占了很大的比例，上周下半周开始化工品的普涨以及本周周尾有色贵金属的 回调，都对盘面造成了比较大的影响。 我们认为，短期的上涨是成本+基本面+情绪共同作用下的结果，从理性的角度的 ...

第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、浮法玻璃日熔下滑至一定低位，但后续冷修和点火预期均存在，需求现实和预期同样疲弱。玻璃处于供需 双弱的状态下，整体节奏较难把握。价格如果上涨，会动摇市场的冷修预期而刺激点火，因此很难在需求没 有起色的情况下给到玻璃价格向上的弹性。但如果价格急速下跌的话，也不排除当下的点火预期被动摇，并 且在春节前触发更多的冷修计划；此外，在远月交易的市场逻辑里，春节后的需求回归也是一个可以博弈的 点。 2、纯碱估值弹性有限，供应端没有趋势性减产的情况下难以给到产业利润。我们对纯碱的定性依旧是过剩， 估值上跟随成本而动。价格往下需要看到上游厂家的快速累库，往上则需要看到供应"故事"或是成本"故 事"，短期都难以实现，价格或窄幅震荡为主。 南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——供需矛盾不明，价格缺乏弹性 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年2月1日 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化（因此期现正反馈持续性比较短 暂）；至于纯碱，产量仍有上升空间， ...

南华期货镍&不锈钢产业周报 1.1 核心矛盾 镍不锈钢尾盘跳水，周内主要跟随大盘以及宏观层面情绪带动偏多，贵金属以及有色领跌带领盘面大幅回 调，资金面同步炒作对盘面指引较深。此外配额发放节奏持续笼罩上方，PT Vale称目前获批配额仅为生产需 求的30%，进一步做实配额缩减预期。印尼方面周中有加强布局下游终端电池领域叙事，中长期或对供需格 局造成影响，短期推动不足。基本面上目前改善有限。菲律宾以及印尼主要矿区均进入雨季，产量以及装船 量均会受到影响，矿端发运受限。新能源方面目前价格跟随镍价上涨，节前大多厂商已经完成备货，目前高 价下进一步采购意愿不足。镍铁跟随盘面同步反弹，前期龙头采购价上行，但是目前成本高企下下游接受意 愿有所降低。不锈钢周内震荡偏强。目前盘面较高情况下库存有一定上升。现货方面盘价持续上调，试图借 趋势挺价，但是节前实际高位成交有限，下游高价接受度较低，目前多空博弈不减。 近端交易逻辑 —尾盘深度回调，受大盘影响为主 当前镍不锈钢期货盘面的近端逻辑以宏观以及大盘指引为主，近期贵金属以及有色均有不同程度的调整，沪 镍近期交易逻辑有所淡化，跟随大盘波动偏多。此外印尼端政策扰动仍有余波，基本面底部 ...

摘要：本周，南华综合指数上涨72.31点，涨幅为2.6%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和白银，原油品种指数涨跌 幅为6.62%，贡献度为1.09%；白银品种指数涨跌幅为11.92%，贡献度为0.72%。南华工业品指数上涨49.5点，涨 幅为1.35%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和铜，原油品种指数贡献度为1.16%；铜品种指数贡献度为0.19%。南华 金属指数上涨59.45点，涨幅为-0.81%；其中影响力最大的品种为碳酸锂，碳酸锂贡献度为-0.64%。南华能化指数 上涨36.54点，涨幅为2.32%；其中影响力最大的品种 南华商品指数周报 2026年1月30日 指数发展部 曹扬慧 (Z0000505) 赵 搏 (F03103098) 王怡琳 (F03118352) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 摘要 本周,南华综合指数上涨72.31点，涨幅为2.6%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和白银，原油品种指数涨跌幅为 6.62%，贡献度为1.09%；白银品种指数涨跌幅为11.92%，贡献度为0.72%。南华工业品指数上涨49.5点，涨幅为 1.35%；其中影响力最大的品种为原油和铜，原油品种指数贡献度为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The valuation of the log industry has an upward - driving force. The inventory of logs in China has reached a new low, and the daily average outbound volume has remained at a high level. The spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong regions have increased, and the downstream wood - square prices have also risen, which may lead to an increase in the cost of the lowest warehouse receipts in Shandong. However, in the long - term, there are no conditions for a significant unilateral upward movement, and the supply - demand structure contradiction is not prominent [1][2]. - The short - term trading logic is based on low inventory, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta, and the impact on New Zealand's log shipments, making it difficult to accumulate inventory in the short term. The long - term trading expectation is that the overall supply - demand structure is relatively stable, and the profit - making effect will adjust the inventory difference between regions [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - As of January 23, the national log inventory was 2.49 million cubic meters (- 80,000), reaching a new low. The daily average outbound volume was 68,600 cubic meters (+ 2,000), remaining at a high level. In the spot market, the price of 3 - meter radiata pine wood in Lanshan area increased to 1,100 yuan per cubic meter (+ 20). The price increase of downstream wood squares may drive up the spot price of radiata pine in Lanshan and the lowest warehouse - receipt cost in Shandong. In the Yangtze River Delta, the prices continued to rise last week. From January 22 - 28, the number of log - shipping vessels from New Zealand decreased by 2. The external - market quotation remained at 112 US dollars [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market broke through the range and rose, but the trading volume was low, and the liquidity had not recovered. On Friday, it opened high and went high, breaking through the upper limit of the sideways - oscillation range and reaching a new high in nearly two months [8]. - **Basis, Calendar - Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Industrial customers can consider buying the basis. For the calendar - spread strategy, the 3 - 5 positive spread should be exited and observed, as the follow - up delivery - related policies may be adjusted [9]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Past strategies included selling lg2603 - P - 750 and lg2603 - C - 800 (proposed on December 25, with lg2603 - C - 800 taking profit and the put position moving to 775 on January 29); doing a 3 - 5 positive spread at the lower limit of the 03 - 05 range (proposed on January 17 and taking profit on January 26); and conducting range operations between 750 - 795 (proposed on January 24 and revised to 775 - 810 on January 30) [12]. - For inventory management, when the log import volume is high and the inventory is at a high level, enterprises can short log futures to lock in profits. For procurement management, when the procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy log futures to lock in procurement costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns - **Spot Transaction Information**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis of different log specifications in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang on January 30, 2026 [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Factors affecting the market include low inventory, reduced Christmas - season shipments from New Zealand, rising spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta and Shandong, and rising prices of downstream wood squares in Lanshan. On the delivery side, the buyer's willingness to take delivery is low, and the seller's delivery cost is high. There are also changes in the delivery game in Chongqing, and Japanese cedar imports continue [17]. - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: After low - volatility oscillation this week, the market showed an upward trend on Thursday and Friday. The overall position remained low, around 10,000 lots, and the capital attention was not high [18]. - **Basis and Calendar - Spread Structure**: For the 3 - 5 calendar spread, it is recommended to exit and observe. In the short term, the 03 contract is stronger than the 05 contract, but the safety margin for further upward movement is insufficient [20]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Valuation - The warehouse - receipt cost in the Yangtze River Delta is around 810 yuan (+ 6), anchored to 6 - meter large A logs, and in Shandong, it is around 800 yuan (+ 10), anchored to 5.9 - meter small A logs. The buyer's willingness to take delivery is around 760 yuan (+ 10) after a 20 - yuan discount on the spot price. When the price approaches the warehouse - receipt cost, it is considered overvalued [27]. 3.4.2 Import Profit The import profit has been continuously repaired. The strengthening of spot prices in the Yangtze River Delta has significantly improved the recent profit [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - From January 31 to February 9, it is expected that 9 vessels will arrive at the port, with a total cargo volume of about 168,000 cubic meters. As of January 23, the daily average outbound volume was 61,800 cubic meters, a month - on - month increase of 2,000 cubic meters. The demand exceeded expectations, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to decrease [33].

金融期货早评 宏观：美政府再次面临部分停摆 【市场资讯】1）英国首相斯塔默：在华会谈取得了实质性成果。2）美国财政部发布报告： 未将任何经济体列入汇率操纵名单。3）美参议院未能推进拨款法案，联邦政府再次面临 "停摆"危机，国土安全部的拨款或另起法案。4）美国总统特朗普称，明天上午将宣布美联 储主席人选。 1. 微软 AI 支出引爆忧虑，股价暴跌 10%，拖累美股大盘。贵金属巨震。 2. 特朗普：将于明早（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【策略建议】短期内，建议出口企业可在 7.01 附近，择机逢高分批锁定远期结汇，以规避 汇率回落可能导致的收益缩水风险；进口企业则可在 6.93 关口附近采取滚动购汇的策略。 【重要资讯】1）美参院关键投票未能推进拨款法案，特朗普称接近达成协议避免政府关门。 2）美国总统特朗普：将于明天早上（北京时间今晚）宣布美联储主席人选。 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 股指：短期预计延续调整 【市场回顾】 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 关键过渡阶段。海外方面，美 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美联储释放耐心信号 股指：美联储如期暂停降息，对 A 股影响有限 【市场资讯】1）国家能源局：截至 2025 年底全国累计发电装机容量 38.9 亿千瓦，同比增 长 16.1%。2）美联储 1 月议息：按下暂停键，维持利率在 3.5-3.75%区间，米兰和沃勒支 持降息 25BP；鲍威尔重申利率处于中性区间上端，政策没有预定路线，用数据说话。鲍威 尔还表示如果关税通胀触顶后回落，即表明可以放松政策，建议继任者远离政治。3）加拿 大央行宣布维持 2.25%基准利率不变。4）贝森特：特朗普可能在可能在一周公布美联储主 席人选。5）巴西央行将利率维持在 15%不变，表示将在下次会议上开始降息。6）加纳央 行行长：加纳央行已出售部分黄金储备以获取外汇。7）特朗普表达不担忧美元走弱后，贝 森特表示，美国长期奉行强势美元政策，还称绝对没有干预日元。8）特朗普警告对伊朗下 一次袭击将更严重，称后者时间不多了。伊朗常驻联合国代表团回应称，伊方愿在相互尊 重基础上与美对话。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前全球市场正处于"海外等待政策验证、国内等待需求修复"的 过渡阶段。海外方面，美联储最新 FOMC 议息会议维 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of global geopolitical games, the strategic value of key mineral resources is continuously highlighted, and the pricing logic of related varieties has shifted from simple supply - demand to "resource security + commodity attribute" driven. The market's expectation of a loose monetary policy in major economies is rising, but the short - term market of strongly financial - attribute varieties is still volatile. China's industrial economy has entered a new stage of bottom - building and recovery, and industrial enterprise profits are expected to turn to moderate growth in 2026 [2]. - The "exchange rate inquiry" by the New York Fed may be an important signal of US - Japan joint intervention. The US dollar index is under pressure, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar due to factors such as seasonal settlement demand and market expectations [4]. - The spring rally in the stock index market is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to continue to be strong, while large - cap indexes are relatively weak [8]. - In the bond market, it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. - In the container shipping market, the near - term contracts are under pressure, while the far - term contracts may be driven up by factors such as trade improvement and geopolitical risks [10][12]. - For new energy commodities, lithium carbonate prices may strengthen in the short term, and industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, while polysilicon is still in the process of destocking [14][15][17]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper prices are affected by market sentiment, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc has strong upward pressure, nickel - stainless steel is in a correction, tin prices are affected by news, and lead is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [20][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29]. - In the oil and fat market, oilseeds follow the rebound, and oils are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [30][33]. - In the energy and oil and gas market, fuel oil cracking is strong, low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward momentum, asphalt is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - long term [36][38][40][45]. - In the chemical market, pulp prices may decline, PX - TA may have a phased correction, MEG may fluctuate widely, PP and PE are affected by macro - emotions, pure benzene and styrene market sentiment has declined, rubber is in a shock correction, urea is recommended to hold long positions, and glass and soda ash are in a repeated pattern [51][52][53][56][57][59][60][62][63][65][66][67][71][73][75][76]. - In the steel and iron ore market, rebar and hot - rolled coils are in a bottom - range oscillation, iron ore price fluctuations are narrowing, coking coal and coke are testing the lower support, and ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are oscillating weakly with cost support [77][78][79][80][81][83][84]. - In the agricultural and soft commodities market, live pigs are falling, cotton is recommended to buy on dips, sugar has limited upward potential, eggs are under pressure to fall, apples may be affected by the shortage of delivery products, dates may be in a low - level oscillation, and logs are recommended to wait and see [86][88][90][91][92][99][100][101][102][103]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed Chair nominee may be announced this week. Japan's Prime Minister may resign if the ruling camp fails to win a majority in the House election. China's industrial enterprise profits in 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year, and the single - month growth rate in December turned positive [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Concerns about the US government's new shutdown risk. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed lower in the previous trading day, and the RMB is expected to appreciate against the US dollar [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The spring rally is expected to last until February, with small - and medium - cap indexes likely to be strong, and large - cap indexes relatively weak [8]. - **Treasury Bond**: It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and wait and see in the short term [9]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term price and basis may strengthen due to pre - holiday restocking demand [14][15]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon prices are likely to rise in the short term, and polysilicon is in the process of destocking [16][17][18]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The market is affected by sentiment, and it is not recommended to open new positions above 100,000 yuan [20][22]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina may oscillate, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [23][24]. - **Zinc**: The upper pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [24]. - **Nickel - Stainless Steel**: It is in a correction, and the short - term trend is affected by market sentiment [25][26]. - **Tin**: The price is affected by Indonesian news and a new model, and it is expected to be in a high - level wide - range oscillation [27][28]. - **Lead**: It is in a narrow - range and weak oscillation [29]. Oils and Fats - **Oilseeds**: They follow the rebound, but lack their own driving force [30]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be strong in the short term, with palm oil being the strongest [33]. Energy and Oil and Gas - **Fuel Oil**: Cracking is strong, but the fundamental situation is still poor [36][37]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It has limited upward momentum, and the supply pressure is increasing [38][39]. - **Asphalt**: It is affected by geopolitical factors and may correct, and it is recommended to focus on the winter - storage situation of refineries [40][41][42]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are expected to rise in the medium - long term, and it is recommended to buy on dips [45][46]. - **Gold & Silver**: Spot gold is approaching 5,200, and it is recommended to buy on dips [47][49]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp prices may decline, and offset paper may be affected by cost and supply factors [51][52]. - **PTA - PX**: They may have a phased correction, and it is recommended to buy on dips [53][56]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It may fluctuate widely, and it is not recommended to short in the short term [57][59]. - **PP**: The short - term fundamental pressure is not large, and it is affected by macro - emotions [60][62]. - **PE**: The fundamental situation is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see [63][65]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The market sentiment has declined, and it is recommended to focus on export increments and downstream feedback [66]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock correction, and it is recommended to wait and see or hold light positions [67][71][72]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to hold long positions [73][74]. - **Glass Soda Ash**: They are in a repeated pattern, with soda ash having an over - supply expectation and glass having a weak supply - demand pattern [75][76]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a bottom - range oscillation, and the price ranges of rebar and hot - rolled coil are estimated [77][78]. - **Iron Ore**: The price fluctuations are narrowing, and the price has certain support [79][80]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are testing the lower support, and the price may face pressure in the short term [81][83]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: They are oscillating weakly with cost support [84]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Live Pig**: The price is falling [86]. - **Cotton**: It is recommended to buy on dips and focus on downstream orders [88][89]. - **Sugar**: The upward potential is limited [90][91]. - **Egg**: The futures are trading the post - holiday off - season expectation in advance, and the price is under pressure to fall [91][92]. - **Apple**: The spot price is loose, and it is recommended to focus on the shortage of delivery products [99][100]. - **Date**: It may be in a low - level oscillation, and it is recommended to focus on downstream procurement [101]. - **Log**: The volatility has returned to a low level, and it is recommended to wait and see [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in the producing areas, the impact of the US biodiesel policy, the progress of China - Canada trade talks, and the overall sufficient supply of domestic oils [1][2]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. The demand is weak, suppressing the upward space of the market, but the tight spot - end sentiment and the positive news of the US bio - fuel policy boost the market. It is expected that the short - term oil market will maintain a strong trend, and short - selling is not recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Palm oil**: Malaysia has entered the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support but lacks a trend - driving force. It is necessary to wait for the Ramadan stocking demand in India to boost the price [1]. - **US biodiesel policy**: The latest news is that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - **China - Canada trade**: The China - Canada talks are currently optimistic, and the import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. However, due to Trump's threat to Canada, there are still uncertainties in China - Canada trade, and the short - term supply concern remains [2]. - **Domestic oil supply and demand**: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, but the overall supply is still sufficient. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: In the short term, there is a rebound trend within the range, and in the medium term, there is still room for palm oil to rise. The price ranges are P2605 [8200 - 9400], Y2605 [7600 - 8300], and OI2605 [8600 - 9500]. Technically, P05 and Y05 are considered to have a strong unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken through, but the short - term upward space is limited. Arbitrage can observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads [17]. - **Basis, monthly spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The current basis is considered to be in a short - term weak and volatile state. There is no monthly spread strategy for now. The soybean - palm spread is expected to weaken [18]. - **Recent strategy review**: Various past strategies, such as going long on P01, P1 - 5 reverse arbitrage, etc., have different results, including stop - loss, stop - profit, and waiting for opportunities [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range prediction**: The price ranges for monthly prediction are: soybean oil 7600 - 8300, rapeseed oil 8600 - 9500, and palm oil 8200 - 9400. The corresponding 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.5%, 10.4%, and 20.2%, and the historical percentiles (3 - year) are 2.4%, 0.1%, and 24.1% respectively [21]. - **Hedging strategies**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to different scenarios, including short - selling or long - buying soybean oil futures with different hedging ratios [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures and spot prices**: The report provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as some related spreads and basis data [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive news**: As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2 million tons. Argentina is facing drought, which may affect crop yields. Malaysia's palm oil production from January 1 - 20 decreased by 14.43% [25][26]. - **Negative news**: The consulting company AgRural raised the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest to 181 million tons. Although the rainfall in Argentina is expected to improve the soil moisture in some areas, local drought will still put pressure on soybeans [27]. - **Spot trading information**: The trading volume of rapeseed oil increased significantly last week, while the trading volumes of soybean oil and palm oil were slightly weaker, with palm oil having the weakest trading volume [27]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, high - frequency production and export data of Malaysian palm oil, and origin weather information [37]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic market**: - **Unilateral trend**: The oil market maintained a strong trend this week. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the US bio - fuel boost and changes in China - Canada trade talks. Palm oil also rose due to lack of precipitation in the origin and capital allocation. Soybean oil continued to rise with the oil sector. It is necessary to pay attention to the US bio - energy policy, origin de - stocking progress, and China - Canada trade development [36]. - **Capital movement**: The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. The key seats of soybean oil slightly increased their long positions, while rapeseed oil and palm oil reduced their short positions. Foreign - funded seats generally reduced short positions and increased long positions, showing a strong bullish sentiment [36]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure with near - term strength and far - term weakness. The P5 - 9 and Y5 - 9 spreads fluctuated, and the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil rose due to the strength of the 05 contract [39]. - **Basis structure**: The main - contract basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. The main - contract basis of soybean and palm oil remained weak, while the main - contract basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of the China - Canada relationship, the main - contract basis of rapeseed oil gradually weakened [44]. - **Cross - variety spreads**: This week, due to the lack of further information, the cross - variety spreads fluctuated mainly. As palm oil entered the production - reduction season and the supply of rapeseed oil increased, the rapeseed - palm spread was expected to weaken [48]. - **Overseas market**: - **Overseas trend**: The overseas market fluctuated mainly this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to the production - reduction season in Malaysia, better - than - expected export, and drought signs in the weather. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to fluctuate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [50]. - **Capital position**: The net position ratio of managed funds has rebounded, and the bullish sentiment has improved. Speculative funds have increased their long positions. However, the net short - position ratio of commercial positions such as producers and traders is relatively high, and the industrial hedging pressure is huge, which limits the further upward space of prices [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The POGO spread decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil - based bio - fuel remained high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based bio - fuel remained at a relatively low level in recent years. As the price of US soybeans rebounds, the BOHO spread is expected to strengthen, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [54]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price is firm, and the domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [56]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The MPOB report shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in December decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, and the export increased by 8.52% month - on - month. The inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export may promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, and the export is optimistic. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [58]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm oil**: In the off - season of demand, the trading volume is difficult to improve. The origin has entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and it is expected that the ship purchases will not increase. It is necessary to wait for the reduction of inventory pressure in the origin [60]. - **Soybean oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [60]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory continues to decrease, and the spot supply is still tight. However, due to the global rapeseed harvest and the recovery of China - Canada trade, the domestic rapeseed oil supply may further increase in the future [60]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lower than the average level. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils is still weak. The market is expected to be dull after the festival [62].

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