【南华观点】 南华贵金属日报:美CPI难阻9月降息 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月13日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场整体震荡，美通胀数据推升9月降息预期，但可能影响后面降息节奏，且风险偏好回升下贵 金属表现相对平淡。周边资产看，美指下跌，美债收益率短跌长升，原油下跌，比特币上涨，美股与上证上 涨，欧股震荡，南华有色金属指数偏强运行。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3399.6美元/盎司，-0.15%； 美白银2509合约收报于37.94美元/盎司，+0.4%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约776.04元/克，-1.12%；SHFE白 银2510合约收9187元/千克，-0.62%。周二晚间公布的7月美CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合预期，同比涨2.7%， 低于预期2.8%；核心CPI环比涨0.3%，符合预期，前值0.2%，同比涨3.1%，高于预期3.0%和前值2.9%，为 2月来最高水平，主要受服务业价格上涨推动。数据后交易员大幅提高了对美联储9月降息的预期，解读为7月 CPI数据整体温和。美联储传声筒Nick Timiraos 随后 ...

铁合金产业风险管理日报 2025/8/12 陈敏涛（Z0022731 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铁合金价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 硅铁 | 5300-6000 | 25.65% | 69.0% | | 硅锰 | 5300-6000 | 15.48% | 28.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铁合金套保 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 买卖方 套保工具 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | 口 | | 向 | | | | 库存管 | 产成品库存偏高，担心铁合金下 | | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空铁合金 | SF2509、SM 卖出 | 15% | SF:6200-6250、SM:6 | | 理 | | 跌 | | 期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国 CPI 同比低于预期 【市场资讯】1）三部门：对于单笔 5 万元以上的消费，以 5 万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。 财政部等九部门：服务业经营主体贷款可享 1%贴息，贴息贷款规模最高达 100 万元。2） 外交部回应：特朗普称可能会允许英伟达公司在华销售"特供版"Blackwell。3）美国 7 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%低于预期，核心 CPI 增速升至 2 月来最高。4）特朗普：正在考虑允许对 美联储主席鲍威尔提起重大诉讼。特朗普喷高盛关税预测，喊话 CEO 换经济学家、你专心 当 DJ 就好。5）贝森特暗示：美联储应对 9 月降息 50 基点持开放态度，希望米兰下月议息 会议前上任。特朗普提名的美联储理事米兰和主席热门人选布拉德力挺降息，称关税不导 致通胀。6）特朗普提名的美国劳工统计局局长建议暂停发布月度就业报告，白宫表态仍计 划发布。7）美国 7 月关税收入创历史新高，但特朗普政府预算赤字仍扩大。8）媒体：泽 连斯基立场软化，乌克兰可能同意停火并在领土问题上让步。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，决策层密集出台了一系列民生政策，也让市场对后续民生政策充 满期待。从长远来看，民生政策仍 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but downstream demand has not recovered, so short - term cotton price drivers are insufficient and may remain volatile. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, downstream sales are expected to improve, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory preparation and the adjustment of this week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4] Group 2: Bullish Factors - This year, due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton, the rigid consumption of downstream cotton has increased, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is low. As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 0.6446 million tons from the end of June, which supports cotton prices [5] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream inventory - preparation willingness is expected to improve marginally [5] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Recently, the spinning profit of inland yarn mills has been poor, the overall load has further declined, the load of cloth mills has increased slightly, the number of sampling orders has increased slightly, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products have accumulated slightly [6] - The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, the flower positions are generally concentrated on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, and the overall growth is good. An optimistic outlook for the new - year's output is maintained [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent inventory losses, short Zhengzhou cotton futures can be sold at 14,200 - 14,400 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling call options (CF601C14400) at 250 - 300 with a hedging ratio of 75% can also reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising cotton prices, Zhengzhou cotton futures can be bought at 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling put options (CF601P13600) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,980, up 100 or 0.72% [7] - Cotton 05 closed at 13,910, up 80 or 0.58% [7] - Cotton 09 closed at 13,735, up 55 or 0.4% [8] - Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,980, up 180 or 0.91% [8] - Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,070, down 100% (data may have an issue here) [8] - Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,995, up 95 or 0.48% [8] Group 6: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,197, down 284 [9] - The spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 70, up 20 [9] - The spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was 175, up 25 [9] - The spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 245, down 45 [9] - The spread between cotton and cotton yarn was 5,985, down 30 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,776, down 52 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton yarn was - 567, unchanged [9] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,177, up 16 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2227B was priced at 13,303, up 15 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2129B was priced at 15,451, up 17 or 0.11% [10] - FCI Index S was priced at 13,617, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index M was priced at 13,402, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index L was priced at 13,102, unchanged [10]

国债期货日报 2025年8月12日 债市仍受压制 观点：逢低布局下季合约 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 期债日内探底回升，全线收跌，TF相对较强，TL最弱。现券收益率今日继续上行，短端幅度较小，超长端上 行幅度较大，但整体幅度较昨日缓和。公开市场净回笼461亿元。资金利率略微上行，DR001在1.32%左右。 日内消息： 1.中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明：自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 行情研判： 债市目前仍受股债跷跷板效应影响。盘前中美关税如期暂缓90天的消息一定程度上对股市继续上涨提供了情 绪助力，今日上证指数继续向去年10月8日形成的高点发起冲击。机构行为方面，基金与券商在卖出债券。当 下股市牛市氛围浓厚，即便出现一定震荡，大盘还将继续向上，对债市的压制将在一段时间内持续，但债市 在基本面与政策面主导下，调整存在边界。交易盘可逢低布局下季合约，可将买入间隔适当拉大。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1: Market Performance Summary - Today, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.82% based on the closing prices of adjacent trading days [1] - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell by -0.36%, while the rest rose. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 1.31%, and the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase of 0.69% [1] - All theme indices rose. The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase of 1.79%, and the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest increase of 0.47% [1] - In the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Soda Ash index had the largest increase of 4.76%, and the Industrial Silicon index had the largest decrease of -1.78% [1] Group 2: Index Data - Index data includes various indices such as the Energy Index NHEI, Petroleum and Chemical Index NHPCl, Coal - Chemical Index NHCCl, etc., with their respective closing prices, previous closing prices, and annualized yields [2] Group 3: Single - Variety Index Yields and Fluctuations - There is data on the yields and fluctuations of major single - variety indices, though specific details are not fully clear from the text [2] Group 4: Industry Chain and Variety Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, specific varieties' single - variety index daily price changes are given, like the yields of some products in the energy and chemical industry chain [2] - In the black sector, there is a schematic diagram of the industrial chain of some varieties and their single - variety index daily price changes [7] - In the agricultural products sector, the single - variety index daily price changes of some varieties such as palm oil, rapeseed oil, etc. are presented. For example, palm oil rose 1.71%, rapeseed oil rose 2.26%, and rapeseed fell -0.70% [8]

集装箱运输市场日报 —— 中美24%关税暂停影响偏中性，期价延续震荡 2025/8/12 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1500~1600 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 1200~1300 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格开盘明显下行，后震荡回升。截至收盘，除EC2508合约略有 回升，其余各月合约价格均略有回落。从交易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看， ...

南华原木产业风险管理日报 2025年8月12日 宋霁鹏（投资咨询证号：Z0016598 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 原木价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原木 | 820-860 | 16.28% | 67.4% | 现货与基差 source： 南华研究 原木套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | 库存管 理 | 原木进口量偏高库存高位，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空原木期货来锁定利润， 弥补企业的生产成本 | lg2509 卖出 | | 25% | 850-875 | | 采购管 | 采购常备库存偏低，希望根据订单情 | 空 | 为了防止原木价格上涨而抬升采 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is the Nanhua Pulp Industry Risk Management Daily, dated August 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - The monthly price range forecast for pulp is 4900 - 5400 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.03% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 58.0% [2] - For inventory management with high - level softwood pulp inventory, it is recommended to short pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - For procurement management when paper - making enterprises have low inventory, it is recommended to buy pulp futures (sp2509) at 25% hedging ratio in the range of 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Spot Prices - The main contract closed at 5264 (+38) today [3] - In the spot market, Shandong Yinxing is quoted at 5850 yuan/ton (+0), Shandong Russian Needle at 5250 yuan/ton (-0), and Shandong Jinyu at 4150 yuan/ton (-0) [4] - Asia - Pacific Senbo announced a 150 - yuan/ton increase in the acceptance price of hardwood pulp for long - term contract customers only due to rising costs [4] - Market trading sentiment has improved, and downstream paper mills maintain rigid procurement [4] Group 4: Market Analysis and Strategy - The market currently lacks obvious driving factors, but the fundamentals of pulp have marginally improved with the approaching downstream consumption peak season, overseas mill production cuts, and inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts at low prices [5] Group 5: Price Quotes - Futures contracts: SP2509 closed at 5216 yuan/ton on August 12, 2025, up 14 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.1% increase; SP2511 closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day and 18 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 2% increase; sp2601 closed at 5488 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton from the previous day and 84 yuan/ton from a week ago with a 1.55% increase [7][10] - CFR quotes: Softwood pulp was 870 US dollars/ton on August 11, 2025, unchanged; hardwood pulp was 820 US dollars/ton, unchanged [10] - Domestic spot prices: Various types of softwood and hardwood pulp, chemical mechanical pulp, and natural pulp have different price quotes, with some showing slight increases or remaining stable; domestic finished paper prices also vary, with white卡纸 down 2.29% week - on - week and some other papers showing small changes [9]

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年8月12日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 下跌家数更多，警惕回调 市场回顾 今日股指继续放量上涨，大盘走势偏强。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升545.47亿元。期指方面，各品种缩 量上涨，持仓量回落反应空头平仓为主。 重要资讯 1、财政部等九部门：严禁服务业经营主体将贷款资金用于房地产开发或投资、理财等套利活动。 2、财政部等九部门：按照贷款本金对经营主体进行贴息，贴息期限不超过1年，年贴息比例为1个百分点。 3、中美发布联合声明：今起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 0.51 | 0.61 | 0.52 | 0.31 | | 成交量（万手） | 10.3585 | 5.7355 | 7.9041 | 17.441 | | 成交量环比（万手） | -0.1165 | 0.8277 | -1.4462 | -3.8939 | | 持仓量（万手） | 25.6148 | 9. ...