1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of finished steel products are neutral, lacking driving forces, and are in a range - bound state. The current core contradiction lies in the furnace charge end. In the short term, finished steel products are supported by the cost end, with limited downside space but lacking upward driving forces. Steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The price range of the main rebar contract 2605 may be between 3050 - 3200, and that of the main hot - rolled coil contract 2605 may be between 3200 - 3350 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Rebar production recovery has slowed down marginally, apparent consumption has rebounded unexpectedly, and inventory has turned to destocking, but the change is small. In the future, inventory may enter a restocking trend again. Overall, rebar inventory is at a low level and is in a destocking trend compared to the same period seasonally. - The destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has accelerated marginally. Although the inventory base is large compared to the same period, it is in a destocking state seasonally. However, the recent increase in hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts is significant, with a 58% week - on - week increase [1]. - For iron ore, steel mills' inventory is low, with restocking expectations supporting prices. But the decline in molten iron production and the continuous restocking of port inventory make it difficult for prices to rise significantly. - For coking coal, the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimao Port is at a relatively high level in recent years, and port inventory is increasing. The recovery of mine开工率 and the accumulation of mine coking coal inventory will suppress prices. Although winter storage supports prices, the large inventory base limits the upside space [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and the production of rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased month - on - month, but demand is weak in the off - season. - The coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, with the highest inventory level in the past five years, and the destocking pressure is high. - The low inventory of steel mills' iron ore at ports supports iron ore prices, while the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products. - Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge [1][5]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The 05 - contract price range forecast for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 11.13% and a volatility percentile of 14.3%; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 9.84% and a volatility percentile of 5.83% [7]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits and make up for production costs. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [7]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive Information**: Winter storage supports the price of furnace charge; the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have rebounded; the low inventory of steel mills at ports supports iron ore prices; the destocking speed of hot - rolled coils has improved marginally [14]. - **Negative Information**: The driving force for steel production cuts is weakening, and production has increased month - on - month; the restocking of port iron ore inventory may affect the price of finished steel products; the coil and plate segment is still in a high - inventory situation, and there is no driving force on the consumption side; export controls have taken effect [15]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events - Next Monday, China will announce the GDP growth rate for 2025. - Next Thursday, the United States will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Basis**: Analyzed the basis seasonality of rebar and hot - rolled coil 05 contracts in Shanghai [16][17]. - **Coil - to - Rebar Spread**: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the spot coil - to - rebar spread in Shanghai and Beijing, as well as the seasonal changes in 01, 05, and 10 coil - to - rebar spreads [18][19][20]. - **Term Structure**: Analyzed the term structure spread diagrams of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore futures, and coking coal [24][25][26]. - **Month - to - Month Spread Structure**: Analyzed the seasonal changes in the month - to - month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures (01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01) [27][28][29]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have improved marginally, and the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production may gradually weaken [31]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - Analyzed the seasonal changes in hot - rolled coil export profit estimates, the relationship between hot - rolled coil export profit and export volume, and the relationship between the difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coils and steel export orders [46][48][49]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - As of January 16, 2026, the cumulative consumption and production of the five major steel products have decreased year - on - year, and the current inventory has also decreased compared to the beginning of the year [65]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the relationship between steel production, profits, and inventory, as well as the impact of blast furnace and electric furnace production and maintenance on supply [66][70][71]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Analyzed the predicted seasonality of the apparent demand for crude steel, the consumption of the five major steel products, and the inventory and sales ratio of various steel products [82][91][101].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include cost support with receding geopolitical sentiment, improved supply - demand situation of downstream PP but still with pressure, and expected supply contraction due to increased PDH maintenance. The propylene 03 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton in the short term [2][3]. - In the near - term, the propylene futures price increase is influenced by cost and supply - demand factors. Overseas propane remains strong, PDH maintenance increases, and the fundamentals of downstream PP improve marginally. In the long - term, there are expectations of propylene capacity expansion, PP over - supply pressure, and cost pressure from increased supply of crude oil and LPG [5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost support: Geopolitical disputes after the festival brought risk premiums to crude oil and supported propane prices. Iran exported an average of 960,000 tons of LPG per month in 2025, with about 80% going to China. Although the geopolitical situation cooled down at the end of the week, the impact still remains [2]. - Supply - demand of downstream PP: The PP operating rate this week was 75.62%, slightly down from the previous high of nearly 80%. Spot trading improved marginally, but overall, supply - demand pressure still exists [2]. - Supply contraction: Nationally, the supply - demand gap was still loose, but in the Shandong market, the gap narrowed due to maintenance at Jinneng and Wanhua, leading to a stronger spot price. With continuous PDH losses, more maintenance is expected, and attention should be paid to potential load - reduction of cracking units due to naphtha consumption tax issues [3]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to fluctuate and rise. The price range for PL03 is 5,800 - 6,200 yuan/ton. The unilateral strategy is to buy at low prices, as it is affected by cost and supply - demand. PDH maintenance provides stronger support, but the price may correct with the decline of crude oil risk premiums [15]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis strategy is to expect the spread to widen. The spot price is strengthening due to supply - demand gap contraction, while the futures price may correct with the decline of geopolitical risks. For the PP - PL spread and PL/PG ratio, it is recommended to wait and see [16][17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - For inventory management, if the finished product inventory is high, enterprises can short - sell propylene futures at high prices to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs. For procurement management, if the inventory is low, enterprises can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [18]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Tensions in Iran and low PG shipments from the Middle East supported CP prices. Poor PDH profits led to increased maintenance of PDH units this week [19]. - **Negative information**: The long - term trading theme in the crude oil market may be oversupply, and the suspension of US military action against Iran led to a decline in risk premiums [20]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - January 19: China's Q4 GDP; January 20: China's LPR; January 22: US PCE index [21]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Analysis - The PL03 contract fluctuated and rose this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased, with no significant changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the dragon - tiger list. Foreign investors slightly reduced their net long positions, and retail investors slightly increased their net long positions. Technically, it shows an upward trend but may face short - term correction pressure [23]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - The propylene 03 basis was 95 yuan/ton this week, with the spot price rising steadily and the futures price fluctuating. The 02 - 03 calendar spread was - 97 yuan/ton, compared with - 7 yuan/ton last week. The 03 contract had a larger increase, and the calendar spread showed a reverse arbitrage trend [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries this week was 762 yuan/ton (+85), and the gross profit of Shandong local refineries was 280 yuan/ton (-89). The cracking end declined slightly, and Fujian Refining had a short - term shutdown [28]. 3.4.2 Mid - stream Profits - Propane cracking profit fluctuated at a low level, and LPG cracking was less economical than naphtha. The PDH profit based on FEI was 88 yuan/ton, and the PDH profit based on CP was - 218 yuan/ton [30]. 3.4.3 Downstream Profits - The spread between PP raffia and propylene was 305 yuan/ton, and the spread between PP powder and propylene was 285 yuan/ton, both slightly narrowing. Epoxy propane chlorohydrin method profit was 323 yuan/ton. Acrylonitrile had a large loss of - 2,362 yuan/ton. Acrylic acid profit was - 415 yuan/ton, and its profit was weakening. Butanol and octanol had profits, while phenol - acetone had a loss of - 1,026 yuan/ton [33]. 3.4.4 Import and Export Profits - The Sino - Korean propylene spread remained stable recently, with CFR China at 785 US dollars (+35) [46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Forecast 3.5.1 Shandong Market Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Forecast - In the Shandong market this week, supply decreased and demand increased. The supply - demand gap narrowed due to maintenance at Jinneng and Wanhua [50]. 3.5.2 Market Supply and Forecast - Due to maintenance of some units this week, propylene production was 1.2315 million tons (-10,500 tons), and the operating rate was 75.23% (-0.72%). PDH, MTO, and steam cracking units all had maintenance situations [53]. 3.5.3 Demand and Forecast - **PP**: The spread between PP pellets/powder and propylene slightly rebounded, and the pellet operating rate slightly decreased. Some PP units had maintenance or production - switching, and the operating rate continued to decline, but the spread has returned to the normal range [65][70]. - **Epoxy propane**: The overall load of epoxy propane slightly decreased but remained at a high level, with some enterprises having short - term shutdowns or load - reduction [71]. - **Acrylonitrile**: There were no significant changes this week [73]. - **Butanol and octanol**: The butanol operating rate increased by 4% due to increased loads at some enterprises. The 450,000 - ton unit of Bohua Yongli is expected to start trial production in February, and Shandong Jianlan is operating normally with a 70,000 - ton unit at a low load [79][81]. - **Acrylic acid**: The acrylic acid capacity utilization rate decreased but remained at a high level, and there was a divergence between production and profit [82]. - **Phenol - acetone**: Some enterprises increased their loads, while Wanhua decreased its load [84]. - **Shandong regional demand**: Demand in the Shandong region increased this week, mainly due to the resumption and increased loads of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [85].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Since the New Year's Day holiday, the geopolitical logic has become the main line of methanol. Although Iranian plants have limited gas supply in winter, geopolitical conflicts have boosted the valuation under the recent warming of commodity sentiment. After methanol prices exceeded 2300, the biggest change in the fundamentals was the joint shutdown of olefin plants. Xingxing has shut down, Shenghong plans to shut down in February, and Bohua plans to shut down from March to April. The port basis has been continuously weakening, the de - stocking slope has been adjusted upwards, and near - end pressure has emerged, with the 3 - 5 structure under pressure. From the perspective of downstream profits, after the rapid rise of methanol prices, the port MTO profits have declined. In the inland areas, with the arrival of rain and snow, prices are expected to drop to clear inventory, and inland prices may fall further. The biggest contradiction in short - selling is the uncertainty of geopolitical logic, so it is difficult for methanol prices to decline significantly. It is recommended to wait and see. Overall, the geopolitical logic of methanol continues. Although the shutdown of MTO plants has weakened the fundamentals of the 05 contract marginally, the operation is difficult [1]. - The near - end trading logic is the concern about the Iranian geopolitical conflict, and the far - end trading expectation is the expectation of MTO shutdown in the far - end of methanol [7]. - The trend of methanol is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2100 - 2350. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and prepare for short positions [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Geopolitical logic has been the main line of methanol since the New Year's Day holiday. The joint shutdown of olefin plants has changed the fundamentals, and downstream profits have been affected. The uncertainty of geopolitical logic makes short - selling difficult [1]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Near - end trading logic: Concern about the Iranian geopolitical conflict. Far - end trading expectation: Expectation of MTO shutdown in the far - end of methanol [7]. - Base - difference strategy: This week, the price of methanol 05 was 2250. After the disk price rose and then fell, the 05 base - difference declined [9]. - Month - difference strategy: This week, with the expectation of MTO shutdown, the 3 - 5 spread went into a reverse arbitrage [10]. - Trend judgment: Methanol is expected to fluctuate upwards, with the short - term operating range of methanol 2605 being 2100 - 2350. Strategy recommendation: Take profit on long positions and prepare for short positions [11]. 1.3 Methanol Inland Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the inventory situation of methanol in the inland areas, including the inventory of northwest methanol, north - line methanol plants, and national methanol plants, etc. [18][23][26] 1.4 Methanol Port Inventory Situation - Multiple charts show the port inventory situation of methanol, including the inventory of Chinese ports, provincial ports, and the inventory of some warehouses. Also, the situation of Taicang's shipping volume is presented [33][43][46] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Methanol price range forecast: The monthly price range of methanol is 2200 - 2500, with a current volatility of 20.01% and a historical percentile of 51.2% in 3 years [59]. - Methanol hedging strategy table: Different hedging strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management according to different scenarios [59]. - Bullish information: The opposition leader in Iran called on workers in key oil, gas, and energy fields to go on a national strike and hold large - scale demonstrations [60]. - Bearish information: Iran's shipments in January were 310,000 tons [61]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Donald Trump expressed support for protesters, and the US government is discussing possible strikes against Iran, including air strikes on military targets, but no decision has been made [63]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the inland areas, the current methanol production is at an absolute high level, while winter is the traditional off - season for downstream demand. Coupled with the high raw material inventory of downstream users, some downstream areas have the phenomenon of vehicle congestion. Especially, some olefin plants in the ports have shutdown plans, which will further weaken the demand and suppress the sentiment of industry players [64]. - This week, the 1 - 5 month - difference fluctuated, mainly due to the increase in Iranian shipments [70]. Chapter 4: Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Price Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts show the price trends of upstream and downstream products in the methanol industry chain, including coal prices, methanol market prices, and the number of warehouse receipts [74][75][80] 4.2 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts show the profit trends of different production methods of methanol and its downstream products, such as coal - based production, natural - gas - based production, and coke - oven - gas - based production [86][88][90] 4.3 Upstream and Downstream Production and Output Tracking in the Industry Chain - Multiple charts show the开工率 and output trends of methanol production and its downstream products, including the开工率 of major enterprises, different production methods, and the开工率 of downstream MTO and traditional downstream industries [92][95][102] 4.4 Import - Export Price and Profit Tracking - Multiple charts show the import - export volume, price, and profit trends of methanol, including the import volume from different countries, the outer - disk structure, and the import profit [128][129] 4.5 Overseas Production Tracking - Multiple charts show the production utilization rate, output, and plant operation rate of overseas methanol, including the overall overseas capacity utilization rate, Iranian and non - Iranian plant operation rates [131][132] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, inventory changes, and inventory - consumption ratios of methanol in ports from January 2025 to May 2026, including Iranian imports, non - Iranian imports, various types of demand, and inventory in different regions [135]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Urea is in a phase of supply surplus due to the continuous release of new production capacity in 2026, and its price center will further decline, but the decline will be supported by export policies. The price trend in the first half of the year will depend on the demand rhythm, and in the second half, it will be policy - dominated. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation, but the price is expected to correct in the short term, with the top range between 1850 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to hold long positions [4]. - The short - term upstream price will remain firm, and some prices will continue to rise, but the market is afraid of high prices, and the procurement rhythm of the middle and lower reaches has slowed down [8]. - The urea market is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the UR2605 operating range between 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to build long positions around 1700 yuan/ton [10]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Urea is in a supply - surplus stage. In 2026, the price center will decline, and the price trend will be affected by export policies and demand rhythm. The urea 05 contract has a price increase expectation but may correct in the short term [4]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the UR2605 operating in the range of 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton. It is recommended to build long positions around 1700 yuan/ton [10]. - **Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The 11, 12, 01 contracts have a weak unilateral trend, while the 02, 03, 04, 05 contracts are strong with peak - season demand expectations. The upper pressure of the 05 contract is 1950 yuan/ton, and the lower static support is 1650 yuan/ton. There is no hedging arbitrage strategy [10][11]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry. The national off - season reserve is concentrated from December to March, and the relatively low price may attract spontaneous reserves. India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, intending to purchase 1.5 million tons [12]. - **Negative Information**: The current domestic daily urea production is 20810 tons. Next week, some maintenance devices will resume operation, and some gas - head urea plants will have concentrated maintenance. The domestic daily urea production is expected to decline significantly after a narrow increase. The demand side should focus on the procurement rhythm of reserve demand and the start - up change of Northeast compound fertilizer plants [12]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - China's urea production this week was 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37400 tons or 2.93%. Next week, the weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons, continuing to increase [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - The domestic urea market continued to rise over the weekend, with a price increase of 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The prices of small and medium - sized particles in the mainstream areas are between 1510 - 1630 yuan/ton. Driven by the fourth batch of urea export quotas and the news of a new round of Indian tenders, the market sentiment is strong, but the middle and lower reaches are resistant. The short - term market will continue to be stable and strong [14]. - After the premium of the 05 contract is compressed, it is recommended to do a positive spread for 5 - 9 at low positions [15]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of urea is 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 27.16% and a historical percentile of 62.1% in three years [21]. - **Urea Hedging Strategy Table**: Different hedging strategies are provided for inventory management and procurement management under different scenarios, including shorting urea futures, buying put options, selling call options, etc., with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The document shows the seasonal charts of urea's weekly fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, natural - gas production cost, and corresponding production profits [25][27]. 4.2 Upstream Start - up Rate Tracking - The document presents the seasonal charts of urea's daily output, weekly capacity utilization rate, weekly coal - head capacity utilization rate, and weekly natural - gas production capacity utilization rate [31]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The document includes the seasonal charts of China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, weekly port inventory, weekly Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and the combined inventory of ports and inland areas [33][35]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The document shows the seasonal charts of compound fertilizer's weekly capacity utilization rate, inventory, production cost, production profit, and the seasonal charts of melamine's weekly capacity utilization rate, market price, production volume, and production profit. It also shows the market prices of different types of compound fertilizers and synthetic ammonia [37][45][51]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The document provides the seasonal charts of urea's average production and sales, as well as the production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [61][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The glass industry is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with the daily melting of float glass dropping to a certain low level, and there are expectations for both cold repairs and ignitions in the future. The demand is weak in both reality and expectation, making it difficult to have a trend - based movement. The policy may also affect the supply, so changes in supply expectations should be monitored. The price rhythm is hard to grasp [1]. - The soda ash industry is mainly cost - priced. Although the supply side occasionally reduces production, new production capacities are gradually ramping up, and the daily output is at an absolute high. Without supply disruptions, the expectation of oversupply remains consistent, and the valuation has limited upward flexibility. As the cold repair expectations of float glass and photovoltaic glass resurface, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month [1]. - In reality, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, resulting in a short - lived positive feedback between futures and spot. For soda ash, the production still has room to increase, and the capacity expansion cycle is not over, so the expectation of oversupply persists [1]. - The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: The daily melting of float glass has declined, with both cold repair and ignition expectations. The demand is weak, and the policy may affect supply. The high middle - stream inventory needs to be digested [1]. - Soda ash: Cost - based pricing, new capacities are increasing, daily output is high, and there is an expectation of oversupply. The cold repair of glass will reduce rigid demand [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Glass: The overall demand is weak, with both cold repair and ignition expectations, and the middle - stream maintains high inventory. The 05 contract is more about expectations, but the fundamentals lack clear drivers. - Strategy: The prices of glass and soda ash lack clear trends, showing a weak and volatile pattern with limited short - term elasticity [5]. 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **Glass**: - Spot prices: There was no change in the prices of various glass products on January 18, 2026, compared with the previous day [8]. - Futures prices: The glass 05 contract increased by 17 yuan to 1103 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily increase of 1.57%. The 09 contract increased by 13 yuan to 1209 yuan, with a daily increase of 1.09%. The 01 contract decreased by 941 yuan to 0 yuan, with a daily decrease of 100% [8]. - Production and sales: On January 16, 2026, the production - sales ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 135, 90, 91, and 105 respectively [9]. - **Soda ash**: - Spot prices: There was little change in the market prices of heavy and light soda ash in various regions on January 16, 2026, compared with the previous day [10]. - Futures prices: The soda ash 05 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1192 yuan on January 16, 2026, with a daily decrease of 0.08%. The 09 contract increased by 3 yuan to 1259 yuan, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan to 1115 yuan, with a daily decrease of 0.09% [11]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: There are still some glass production lines with cold repair expectations to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the supply is still shrinking [11]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies. - The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively manage high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting from 2026, and the market may have new expectations for supply - side policies. - There is still room for positive feedback between futures and spot for both glass and soda ash when the futures prices rise. - Shahe glass has ignition expectations, the high middle - stream inventory persists, and the far - month demand lacks upward flexibility, with differences in the degree of demand decline. - The second - phase first and second lines of Alxa's 100 - million - ton new production capacities are gradually ramping up, maintaining long - term supply pressure. The cold repair expectation of glass will affect the rigid demand for soda ash [14]. - Monitor the production - sales situation, spot prices of glass, and the spot trading situation of soda ash [15]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - Glass: The expectation of the main 05 contract is unclear, with weak supply and demand. The near - term spot pressure is high, and the middle - stream has high inventory. The far - month has expectations of supply reduction and cost increase, but the demand is unclear [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structures - Glass: The 5 - 9 spread fluctuates mainly in a range, without a clear direction, as the supply - demand expectations are uncertain, and funds are on the sidelines [20]. - Soda ash: It maintains a C - shaped structure. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term situation may deteriorate again [21]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Glass: Natural gas production lines are in losses, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have small profits or are on the verge of break - even [37]. - Soda ash: The cash cost of the ammonia - soda process (in Shandong) is around 1210 - 1220 yuan/ton, and the cash cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is around 1080 - 1090 yuan/ton [37]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [43]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, basically in line with expectations, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, with a significantly higher proportion than last year. The export in November was close to 19 million tons, maintaining high export expectations [43]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Supply Side and Projections - **Glass**: The daily melting of glass has dropped to around 150,000 tons. There are still some cold - repaired production lines to be fulfilled before the Spring Festival, and the daily melting is expected to decline further [49]. - **Soda ash**: The current daily output of soda ash has increased to over 110,000 tons. The first and second lines of the second - phase project in Alxa (with a total of 2.8 million tons) have been ignited and are gradually producing products [54]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Projections - **Glass**: The middle - stream inventory remains high, and the spot pressure persists. As of the end of December, the deep - processing orders for glass were 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The deep - processing raw material inventory was 8.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 26.96%. The cumulative apparent demand for glass in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 7.5%. The terminal demand remains weak, and the middle - stream replenishes inventory at low prices [56]. - **Soda ash**: The total daily melting of float glass and photovoltaic glass is 238,000 tons, showing a slight decline, and the daily rigid demand for soda ash is about 47,600 tons. With the cold repair expectation of glass, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline month - on - month. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic glass remains high, with an inventory period of about 39 days, and the industry chain is in a state of oversupply. The cumulative apparent demand for soda ash in 2025 is estimated to have decreased by 0.2%. The rigid demand for soda ash declines slightly month - on - month, and the middle and lower reaches mainly replenish inventory at low prices [67]. 3.5.3 Inventory Analysis - **Glass**: According to Longzhong data, the total inventory of glass factories is 53.013 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory period is 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. The upstream inventory has been transferred to the middle - stream [75]. - **Soda ash**: The inventory of soda ash is 1.575 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0023 million tons. Among them, the light - soda inventory is 0.837 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0005 million tons, and the heavy - soda inventory is 0.738 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0018 million tons. The inventory in the delivery warehouse is 0.3877 million tons (an increase of 0.00104 million tons). The total inventory of soda ash factories and delivery warehouses is 1.9627 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.00127 million tons. The upstream inventory fluctuates at a high level [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term, the contradiction of coking coal surplus intensifies, and the winter storage replenishment is more than half completed. The short - term futures market may be adjusted due to surplus intensification, insufficient winter storage drive, and weakening macro - sentiment. However, during the Spring Festival, mine closures and the gradual resumption of hot metal production are expected to improve the supply - demand contradiction of coking coal and coke, and the adjustment space of the futures market is limited. In the long - term, if there is a combination of "domestic supply recovery exceeding expectations" and "weakening macro - sentiment", the medium - and long - term prices of coking coal and coke will face greater downward pressure [2]. - It is expected that coking coal and coke will maintain a range - bound operation in the short term. Investors can consider constructing a short strangle option portfolio strategy [3]. - The "14th Five - Year Plan" macro - policy expectations and the "anti - deflation" policy in the opening year will provide bottom support for far - month contracts. The opening of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are beneficial to the overall valuation of commodities [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply side: Domestic mine production of coking coal is increasing steadily. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at ports is at a high level year - on - year. Australian coal supply is tight, and the export price is firm. The arrival of coking coal at ports has declined from a high level [2]. - Demand side: Coking enterprises have started a round of price increases, but steel mills are resistant. Recently, the spot price of coking coal has rebounded significantly, the immediate coking profit has shrunk, and the operating rate of coking enterprises has decreased slightly. The maintenance volume of blast furnaces in steel mills has increased, and the hot metal production has decreased slightly, resulting in an intensified coking coal surplus. However, the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to recover, and the decline space of hot metal is limited. It is expected that production will resume steadily at the end of January, and the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to improve [2]. 3.1.2 Strategy Recommendations - Construct a short strangle option portfolio strategy for short - term coking coal and coke investment [3]. 3.1.3 Trading Logic - Near - term: The downstream has started winter storage, and the spot price of coking coal has certain support. The hot metal production has basically bottomed out, and the expectation of steel mill复产 is strong, so the demand for coking coal and coke is expected to stabilize [7]. - Long - term: The macro - policy in the "14th Five - Year Plan" opening year and the "anti - deflation" policy will support far - month contracts. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle and global liquidity easing are positive for commodity valuations [9]. 3.1.4 Market Positioning - Trend judgment: Oscillatory operation. - Price range: JM2605 operates in the range of 1120 - 1250; J2605 operates in the range of 1650 - 1800 [10]. 3.1.5 Basic Data Overview - Coking coal supply: The operating rate and daily output of 523 mining enterprises and 314 coal washing plants have increased [13]. - Coking coal inventory: The inventory of 523 mining enterprises, 314 coal washing plants, independent coking enterprises, and 247 steel mills has increased, while the port inventory has decreased slightly [13]. - Coking supply: The production capacity utilization rate and daily output of independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills have decreased slightly [15]. - Coking inventory: The inventory of independent coking enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of 247 steel mills and ports has increased [15]. - Coking coal and coke futures prices: The month - to - month spreads and basis of coking coal and coke have different changes [16]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: The central bank has introduced a series of policies to support high - quality economic development. The individual income tax refund policy for home purchases has been extended. The government has promoted fiscal - financial cooperation to boost domestic demand. The supply and consumption of five major steel products have increased, and the inventory has decreased. The prices of some coking coal varieties have risen. The supply of Australian coking coal is tight, and the price has risen. Coking enterprises have started the first round of price increases [23][24][25]. - Negative information: The inventory of imported iron ore at ports has increased, the customs clearance pressure of coking coal is high, and there is a rumor of increased customs clearance at the Ganqimao Port [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - Monday: Pay attention to China's GDP growth rate and total GDP in 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in December 2025, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in December 2025. - Tuesday: Pay attention to China's one - year loan prime rate as of January 20. - Thursday: Pay attention to the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10 and the annual rate of the core PCE price index in the US in November [26]. 3.3 Futures Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend: The main contract of coking coal rebounded to around 1250 and then fell back. The subsequent support levels are 1120 - 1130. The trend of coke follows that of coking coal, and the support level for the 05 contract is 1640 - 1650 [27]. - Month - to - month spread structure: The 5 - 9 spreads of coking coal and coke changed little this week, showing a low - level oscillation. Attention can be paid to the 5 - 9 inter - month reverse arbitrage of coking coal, with the recommended entry range of (- 40, - 50) [31]. - Basis structure: This week, the main futures market of coking coal and coke oscillated and declined, the spot price of coking coal increased, and coke started the first round of price increases, so the 05 basis strengthened [34]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Coking coal mines' theoretical profit has expanded due to the increase in coking coal spot prices. The immediate coking profit has shrunk because of the increase in coking coal prices for coke production. The profitability of downstream steel mills is expected to shrink with the price increase of coke [38]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The long - term agreement price of Mongolian coking coal in the first quarter has rebounded by about $7. The port customs clearance enthusiasm is high, and the inventory pressure in the supervision area is large. The coal shipping volume has decreased this week, and the price difference between Australian coal and domestic coal has continued to expand. The subsequent arrival pressure of coking coal is expected to ease [41][46]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Coking Coal Supply - Side Deduction - In January, coking coal supply is expected to increase, with an estimated average weekly production of about 9.5 million tons. The average weekly import volume of coking coal in January is revised up to about 2.55 million tons. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coking coal in January is estimated to be 238,000 tons per day [63]. 3.5.2 Coke Supply - Side Deduction - The four - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the fifth - round price cut is still under negotiation. The immediate coking profit is under pressure, and the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises is average. The average weekly production of coke in January is expected to be about 7.7 million tons. The net export volume of coke is linearly extrapolated, with an estimated average weekly export volume of 150,000 tons in January. The theoretical hot - metal balance point of coke in January is estimated to be 233,000 tons per day [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side Deduction - The hot - metal production is expected to stabilize and rebound after a short - term decline. The average daily hot - metal production in January is estimated to be 227,000 tons per day. The average theoretical hot - metal surplus of coking coal in January is about 11,000 tons per day, and that of coke is about 6,000 tons per day [69]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke from Week 45 in 2025 to Week 57 in 2026 are estimated, including production, import, total supply, supply converted to theoretical hot metal, actual hot metal, inventory, and the difference between theoretical and actual hot metal [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The current dominant factor for iron ore prices is not the fundamentals but the macro - expectations. In the context of continuous inventory accumulation and slow production resumption, the fundamentals cannot support the current high valuation, and there is a lack of support for the price to continue rising. However, after the price drops, steel mills have a rigid demand for replenishing inventory, so there is also support for the price at the lower level [4][7] - The iron ore price has a large divergence from the fundamentals, and the price is significantly over - estimated [5][7] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Leveraging Factors**: There is a structural shortage of medium - grade iron ore delivery products; the steel fundamentals are acceptable with some support from export rush; steel mills currently have decent profits and some room for production increase [5] - **Negative Factors**: The overall iron ore shipment is moderately high, the floating inventory at sea is high, and the overall spot is not in shortage; despite the price decline, the valuation is still high; the inventory continues to accumulate, with the port inventory exceeding 170 million tons and the accumulation speed exceeding previous years [5] - **Market Performance**: The iron ore swap price once exceeded $109 per ton during the week, hitting an 18 - month high, but then the price declined along with other risk assets. After the recent surge in non - ferrous metals and other assets, the selling pressure was significant, and assets with large previous gains all corrected. The iron ore price trend, after removing the impact of inventory fundamental factors, is currently close to the CSI 300 index trend again, indicating that the current price is mainly driven by macro factors rather than fundamental factors [5] - **Supply - Side Situation**: After the end - of - year shipment rush, the seasonality has weakened, but the year - on - year shipment is still at a high level, with a year - on - year growth of 12%. The iron ore shipment is still in excess, which is the main reason for the continuous inventory increase [5] - **Demand - Side Situation**: The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, with the pig iron output in this period decreasing by 1.5 tons to 2.28 million tons compared with the previous period. The steel outbound volume has been at a high level since December. In December, the steel export volume was 11.301 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.32 million tons or 13.2%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. Currently, the rebar production is at a low level, the demand is resilient, and the inventory has not accumulated rapidly. The hot - rolled coil production has marginally increased, but the demand can digest the production increase, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils has decreased [5][7] - **Inventory - Side Situation**: The port inventory continues to accumulate, with the inventory of imported ore in 47 ports reaching 17.2887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 244,260 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate beyond the seasonality, and the divergence between the iron ore price and the fundamentals continues to widen. Steel mills are gradually replenishing raw materials before the Spring Festival, but the replenishment pace is significantly slower than in previous years, and the overall replenishment willingness of steel mills is not strong, mainly for rigid - demand procurement and being cautious about prices [7] 1.2 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range is 770 - 820 yuan, with the current at - the - money option IV at 18.90% and the historical volatility percentile at 11.3% [8] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and there is concern about future inventory price decline, the strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2602, short, 25%, entry range: 840 - 850) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2602 - C - 840, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if there is a need to purchase in the future and there is concern about price increase, the strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2602, long, 30%, entry range: 800 - 810) and selling out - of - the - money put options. If the price falls below the strike price, hold long futures positions (I2602 - P - 810, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 1.3 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: The pig iron cost per ton decreased by 1.69 yuan week - on - week and 7.65 yuan month - on - month; the blast furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton decreased by 5 yuan week - on - week and increased by 6 yuan month - on - month; the blast furnace rebar profit per ton decreased by 3 yuan week - on - week and increased by 34 yuan month - on - month; the average - electricity rebar profit of Jiangsu electric furnaces decreased by 52 yuan week - on - week and 21 yuan month - on - month; the steel mill profitability rate increased by 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and 3.9 percentage points month - on - month; the iron - scrap price difference decreased by 21.69 yuan week - on - week and 38 yuan month - on - month [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: The global shipment volume decreased by 328,000 tons week - on - week and 4.116 million tons month - on - month; the Australia - Brazil shipment volume decreased by 1.333 million tons week - on - week and 3.561 million tons month - on - month; the Australian shipment volume decreased by 51,000 tons week - on - week and 1.217 million tons month - on - month; the Brazilian shipment volume decreased by 1.282 million tons week - on - week and 2.345 million tons month - on - month; the non - Australia - Brazil shipment volume increased by 1.005 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 555,000 tons month - on - month [10] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: The daily average port clearance volume decreased by 33,800 tons week - on - week and increased by 64,400 tons month - on - month; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 14,900 tons week - on - week and increased by 14,600 tons month - on - month; the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and increased by 0.37 percentage points month - on - month; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and increased by 0.55 percentage points month - on - month [11] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: The inventory of imported ore in 45 ports increased by 2.7984 million tons week - on - week and 10.4247 million tons month - on - month; the proportion of traded ore in 45 ports increased by 0.07 percentage points week - on - week and 1.04 percentage points month - on - month; the port congestion days in 45 ports remained unchanged week - on - week and increased by 3 days month - on - month; the number of ships at ports in 45 ports increased by 1 week - on - week and 6 month - on - month; the inventory of imported ore in steel mills increased by 2.7263 million tons week - on - week and 5.3827 million tons month - on - month; the available days of imported ore in steel mills increased by 1.13 days week - on - week and 1.77 days month - on - month [12] Chapter 2: Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative difference, and over - seasonality of the global iron ore shipment volume [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative difference, over - seasonality, and year - on - year cumulative value of the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines [15][18] - **Non - Mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Examined the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative difference, over - seasonality, and year - on - year cumulative value of the non - mainstream mines' shipment volume. The Platts iron ore index leads the non - mainstream shipment by about 5 weeks [21][24] - **Arrival and Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality, year - on - year cumulative value of the arrival volume at 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][29] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the seasonality of freight prices, the proportion of freight costs, ship speed, and the floating inventory of iron ore [32][38] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mine enterprises and the monthly output of 433 mine enterprises [41] Chapter 3: Demand Analysis 3.1 Pig Iron Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, the impact of blast furnace maintenance on pig iron production, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality, year - on - year change, and iron ore prices [45][47][49] 3.2 Steel Mill Profit Analysis - Studied the production profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the relationship between various steel product profits and future production [51][55][57] 3.3 Downstream Steel Analysis: Rebar - Analyzed the seasonality of rebar production, consumption, total inventory, short - process production, the proportion of short - process production, the price - cost relationship, and related price spreads [65][66][70] 3.4 Downstream Steel Analysis: Hot - Rolled Coil - Studied the seasonality of hot - rolled coil production, consumption, total inventory, and price spreads [73][74][76] 3.5 Downstream Steel Analysis: Medium - Thick Plate - Analyzed the seasonality of medium - thick plate production, consumption, total inventory, and inventory - sales ratio [78][79] 3.6 Off - Balance - Sheet Steel Analysis - Examined the seasonality of off - balance - sheet steel production estimation, the combined inventory of on - and off - balance - sheet crude steel, and the production, inventory, and apparent demand of various steel products such as H - beams, angle steels, galvanized coils, and others [81][83][87] 3.7 Export Analysis - Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port outbound volume, export orders, and export profits [98][99] Chapter 4: Inventory Analysis 4.1 Port Inventory Analysis - Studied the seasonality of the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports, the inventory structure, the relationship between inventory over - seasonality and iron ore prices, the seasonality of different types of ore inventory, and the proportion of different types of ore in the port inventory [101][104][113] 4.2 Other Inventory Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the imported iron ore inventory in 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore in steel mills, and the estimated inventory turnover days [119][120] Chapter 5: Valuation Analysis 5.1 Basis and Term Structure - Presented the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profits. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts and the term structure of iron ore futures [121][122] 5.2 Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - Rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio - Studied the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and the hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [124] 5.3 Coking Coal Ratio Analysis - Analyzed the seasonality of the price difference between coking coal and iron ore of different contracts and the cost - sharing relationship between coking coal and iron ore [126][127] 5.4 Scrap Steel Cost - Effectiveness Analysis - Examined the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between the iron - scrap price difference and scrap steel consumption, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [129][131][133]

Report Title - The title of the report is "South China Futures Cotton and Cotton Yarn Weekly Report - Oscillatory Adjustment", dated January 16, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating Core Views - **Near - term**: Under the pressure of downstream profit squeeze and a significant increase in the internal - external price difference, there is an upper limit on cotton prices. However, the current load of yarn mills remains stable, and the expansion of spinning capacity supports cotton consumption. With relatively low overall downstream inventory pressure, short - term cotton prices may oscillate within a narrow range. Attention should be paid to downstream imports and order situations [9] - **Long - term**: In recent years, the domestic downstream textile production capacity has expanded significantly, and Xinjiang yarn mills have maintained high - load operations, increasing the rigid consumption of cotton raw materials. Although China's cotton production has increased significantly, it still needs to import foreign cotton to fill the gap. The probability of further issuing additional cotton import quotas is low, so the supply - demand of domestic cotton in the new year may still be tight. Attention should be paid to the demand side affected by policy changes in the new year, as well as the adjustment of the Xinjiang cotton target price subsidy policy and its impact on farmers' enthusiasm for cotton planting [18][19] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The USDA's January global supply - demand forecast report slightly increased the price with a 7.7 - ton month - on - month decrease in US cotton production to 3.4% year - on - year. As of January 15, 2026, the cumulative national new - year cotton notarized inspection volume reached 691.88 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76.03 tons. The daily average notarized inspection volume has recently dropped to around 3 tons, and the new - cotton notarization work is nearing completion. The domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory has significantly rebounded to a peak in recent years. However, restricted by import quotas, the overall supply increase in the new year has narrowed. With the expansion of cotton yarn production capacity, the rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the market expects a potential supply - demand shortage at the end of this year. There is also an expected reduction in the cotton - planting area in Xinjiang in the 26/27 season. But after the strengthening of domestic cotton prices, downstream spinning profits have been squeezed, the internal - external cotton price difference has widened significantly, and the inflow of imported yarn may increase periodically, pressuring the upper limit of cotton prices [2] 1.2 Transaction - Type Strategy Recommendations - The price range of CF2605 is predicted to be between 14,000 and 15,000. It is recommended to lay out long positions on CF2605 during pull - backs [21][23] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in profits and sell call options (CF2605C15200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2605) to lock in procurement costs and sell put options (CF2605P14000) to collect premiums and reduce costs [21] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of Zhengzhou cotton futures contracts (01, 05, 09) decreased last week, with respective decreases of 0.37%, 0.58%, and 0.77% [22] - **Spot Data**: The CC Index 3128B increased by 0.01%, while the CC Index 2227B and CC Index 2129B decreased by 0.01% and 0.03% respectively [22] - **Spread Data**: The CF1 - 5 spread increased by 30, the CF5 - 9 spread increased by 30, and the CF9 - 1 spread decreased by 60 [22] - **Import Price**: The FC Index M increased by 0.41%, and the FCY Index C32s increased by 0.2% [24] - **Cotton Yarn Data**: The futures price of cotton yarn decreased by 0.75%, and the spot price remained unchanged [24] Chapter 2: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive News**: As of January 8, the national new - cotton picking progress was 99.9%, the selling rate was 99.5%, the processing rate was 94.5%, and the sales rate was 55.6%. In November, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles increased by 4.84% month - on - month and 4.19% year - on - year. In November 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased by 6.32% month - on - month and 9.84% year - on - year [25] - **Negative News**: In December 2025, the export of textiles and clothing decreased by 7.35% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the cumulative net contracted export volume of US cotton decreased by 13.99% year - on - year [27] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Attention should be paid to the release of domestic textile and clothing consumption data in China, flower and yarn import - export data, and US cotton weekly export data [28] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: At the beginning of last week, Zhengzhou cotton prices further declined under the influence of profit - taking. Both long and short positions significantly reduced, and the short - term trading enthusiasm in the market cooled. The RSI index fell to the neutral range, and prices entered an oscillatory adjustment phase [34] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: Currently, Zhengzhou cotton 1 - 5 shows a slight back structure supported by industrial end - taking, while contracts 05 and subsequent ones maintain a contango structure. The far - month contracts maintain the expectation of supply - demand tightness at the end of the year and have a stronger trend [37] - **Basis Structure**: This week, the cotton basis weakened slightly and then rebounded, remaining generally stable. The mainstream basis of machine - picked 31 - grade double 29/cotton with less than 3.5% impurity in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, is mostly above CF05 + 850, and in northern Xinjiang, it is mostly above 1000 [40] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Downstream Spinning Profit Tracking - Supported by policies and technological innovation, Xinjiang yarn mills have a cost advantage over those in the inland. Since September last year, domestic cotton prices have declined under the hedging pressure of ginning factories and the supply pressure of new - cotton listing, while yarn prices have remained relatively stable, and domestic yarn mill profits have recovered. However, since December, domestic cotton prices have oscillated upwards, and yarn prices have remained stable, squeezing yarn mill profits again. This week, cotton prices oscillated slightly upwards, yarn prices remained basically stable, and yarn mill profits continued to weaken slightly on a weekly basis [43] 4.2 Import Profit Tracking - Affected by the Xinjiang cotton ban and tariff policies, the internal and external cotton prices have shown relatively independent trends. This year, China's cotton import profit has been considerable, but the import quota is low, and the import volume has remained at a low level. In November 2025, China imported 12 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 3 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1 ton. The cumulative import volume in the 25/26 season is 31 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3 tons. This week, the internal and external cotton prices fluctuated within a narrow range, and the import profit remained basically stable compared to last week [46] Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - A bumper harvest of Xinjiang cotton is expected in the new year. With the additional 20 - ton sliding - scale tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the 89.4 - ton 1% tariff quota issued in 2026, the expected new - year cotton import volume is 110 tons. The probability of further issuing additional sliding - scale tariff quotas is low. Downstream, domestic demand may maintain a mild recovery supported by domestic macro - policies, and the easing of Sino - US trade relations is conducive to the recovery of China's textile and clothing exports, supporting the expected domestic cotton consumption [48][49]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - As of January 16, 2026, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.73%. Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 0.17%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index had the largest decline of -2.98%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.44%. Among the theme indices, the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the largest increase of 0.65%, the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase of 0.09%, the Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.85%, and the Mini Composite Index had the smallest decline of -0.38%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the Rapeseed Oil Index had the largest increase of 2.66%, and the Lithium Carbonate Index had the largest decline of -10.43% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data of Nanhua Commodity Index - **Composite Index**: The Nanhua Composite Index (NHCI) closed at 2728.81, down 20.05 points or -0.73% from the previous trading day, with an annualized return rate (ARR) of 10.16%, an annualized volatility of 12.00%, and a Sharpe ratio of 0.85 [3]. - **Sector Indices**: The Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) fell 0.46%, the Industrial Products Index (NHII) fell 3.14%, the Metal Index (NHMI) fell 1.78%, the Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) fell 1.25%, the Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNF) fell 2.98%, the Black Index (NHFI) fell 0.44%, and the Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) rose 0.17% [3]. - **Theme Indices**: The Mini Composite Index (NHCIMi) fell 0.38%, the Energy Index (NHEI) fell 1.85%, the Oilseeds and Oils Index (NHOOl) rose 0.65%, the Building Materials Index (NHBMI) rose 0.09%, etc. [3]. Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index's Rise and Fall - **Nanhua Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Rapeseed Oil (13.35%), while negative contributors included Palm Oil, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Mini Composite Index**: Positive contributors included Glass (7.88%), and negative contributors included Rebar, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Industrial Products Index**: Positive contributors included Rebar (2.09%), and negative contributors included Iron Ore, etc. [3]. - **Nanhua Metal Index**: Positive contributors included Zinc (0.62%), and negative contributors included Stainless Steel, etc. [3]. Single - Variety Index Daily Rise and Fall - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Some varieties like Glass rose 1.57%, while others like Methanol fell 21.86% [3]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Rapeseed Oil rose 2.66%, while Rapeseed Sugar fell 1.23% [6]. - **Black Sector**: Some varieties' information is presented, such as Rebar's relevant data in the contribution part [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Nanhua Comprehensive Index rose 30.56 points, a 1.13% increase, with silver and crude oil being the most influential varieties. The silver variety index had a change of 20.03% and a contribution of 1.21%, while the crude oil variety index had a change of 1.22% and a contribution of 0.2% [1][2] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 14.2 points, a -0.39% decrease, with caustic soda and soda ash being the most influential varieties. The caustic soda variety index had a contribution of -0.22%, and the soda ash variety index had a contribution of -0.12% [1][2] - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with tin being the most influential variety, contributing 0.63% [1][2] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index fell 15.24 points, a -0.98% decrease, with caustic soda being the most influential variety, contributing -0.32% [1][2] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 1.55 points, a -0.15% decrease, with soybean meal being the most influential variety, contributing -0.24% [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Weekly Data Overview - The Nanhua Comprehensive Index (NHCI) closed at 2728.81 this week, up 30.56 points or 1.13% from last week, with a maximum of 2762.87 and a minimum of 2698.26, and a volatility of 64.62 [3] - The Nanhua Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 2128.42, up 183.10 points or 9.41%, with a maximum of 2148.96, a minimum of 1945.31, and a volatility of 203.65 [3] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index (NHII) closed at 3621.64, down 14.20 points or -0.39%, with a maximum of 3680.51, a minimum of 3621.64, and a volatility of 58.88 [3] - The Nanhua National Index (NHMI) closed at 7218.64, up 50.30 points or 0.70%, with a maximum of 7349.16, a minimum of 7168.35, and a volatility of 180.81 [3] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index (NHECI) closed at 1542.88, down 15.24 points or -0.98%, with a maximum of 1571.89, a minimum of 1542.88, and a volatility of 29.02 [3] - The Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index (NHNFI) closed at 2049.28, up 18.16 points or 0.89%, with a maximum of 2112.26, a minimum of 2031.12, and a volatility of 81.14 [3] - The Nanhua Black Index (NHFI) closed at 2579.80, down 2.09 points or -0.08%, with a maximum of 2603.38, a minimum of 2579.80, and a volatility of 23.58 [3] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index (NHAI) closed at 1061.51, down 1.55 points or -0.15%, with a maximum of 1065.94, a minimum of 1059.68, and a volatility of 6.26 [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Arbitrage Data - The ratio of the Nanhua Precious Metals Index to the Comprehensive Index is 0.780, up 0.06 from last week, with a ranking of 0.999 [8] - The ratio of the Industrial Products Index to the Comprehensive Index is 1.327, down 0.02 from last week, with a ranking of 0.005 [8] - The ratio of the Metal Index to the Industrial Products Index is 1.993, up 0.02 from last week, with a ranking of 0.998 [8] 3.3 Nanhua Sector Index Weekly Data 3.3.1 Nanhua Industrial Products Index - Closed at 3621.64, down -0.39%. The most influential varieties are caustic soda and soda ash, with contributions of -0.22% and -0.12% respectively [1][2] - There are 21 commodities in total, 6 rising, and 14 falling [14] 3.3.2 Nanhua Metal Index - Closed at 7218.64, up 0.70%. The most influential variety is tin, contributing 0.63% [1][2] - There are 13 commodities in total, with 3 rising and some falling [14] 3.3.3 Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index - Closed at 1542.88, down -0.98%. The most influential variety is caustic soda, contributing -0.32% [1][2] - There are 20 commodities in total, 5 rising, and 15 falling [14] 3.3.4 Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - Closed at 1061.51, down -0.15%. The most influential variety is soybean meal, contributing -0.24% [2] - There are some commodities in total, with 5 rising and some falling [14] 3.3.5 Nanhua Black Index - Closed at 2579.80, down -0.08%. The most influential varieties are coke, iron ore, and manganese silicon, with contributions of -0.34%, -0.09%, and -0.05% respectively [15] - There are 7 commodities in total, 2 rising, and 5 falling [15] 3.3.6 Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index - Closed at 2049.28, up 0.89%. The most influential varieties are tin, nickel, and zinc, with contributions of 1.07%, 0.30%, and 0.29% respectively [17] - There are 8 commodities in total, with 5 rising and 3 falling [17] 3.4 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Fluctuations to Index Fluctuations - Soybean meal has a weekly average holding volume of 3795715 hands, a month - on - month increase of 8.50%, and a holding volume ratio of 4.52% [19] - Silver has a weekly average holding volume of 726175 hands, a month - on - month increase of 2326523, a month - on - month increase rate of 5.84%, and a holding volume ratio of 1.82% [19] - Rebar has a weekly average holding volume of 682059 hands, a month - on - month increase of 2.38%, and a holding volume ratio of 0.74% [19]