Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern, but winter environmental protection speculation should be vigilant. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward space of industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to lay out forward contracts for peak seasons at low prices. Also, industrial silicon prices are closely linked to the price fluctuations of related varieties such as polysilicon and coking coal [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving logic of industrial silicon futures price trends will focus on factors such as the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background, supply - side production cuts due to environmental protection constraints or cost increases, and demand - side production cut expectations due to weak terminal shipments. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout, there is insufficient confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - discipline. The power cost accounts for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect the power cost and then the industrial silicon price. In December, there is an expected decline in the start - up rate of industrial silicon production enterprises on the supply side, and downstream polysilicon industry has production cuts, downstream silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, while the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable start - up rate [2] 1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - **Sales Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined options strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with plans to produce polysilicon/silicone/aluminum alloy in the future and worried about cost increases when purchasing industrial silicon, if the product price has no correlation, the recommended hedging ratio is 30% for buying corresponding futures contracts and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling put options + buying call options); if the product price is correlated, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling corresponding futures contracts and 20% for a combined futures contract strategy (buying put options + selling call options) [6] - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventories and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, the recommended hedging ratio is 20% for selling the main futures contract and 10% for a combined options strategy (selling call options + buying put options) [6] 2. Important Information and Events to Watch - No important information was reviewed this week [7] 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Futures Trends**: This week, the closing price of the industrial silicon futures weighted index contract on Friday was 8,677 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.15%. The trading volume was 382,100 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 38.35%, and the open interest was 407,000 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 53,000 lots. The month - spread between SI2602 and SI2605 was in a Contango structure, a week - on - week decrease of 60 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts was 9,019 lots, a week - on - week increase of 400 lots. The MACD and moving averages (daily level) show a pattern of "short - position reduction and price increase", and the current price has risen from near the lower - rail of the Bollinger Band to near the middle - rail, with the bandwidth showing signs of widening. Attention should be paid to the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton and the pressure level near the middle - rail of the Bollinger Band [9] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been fluctuating recently, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been declining, indicating that the proportion of put option open interest relative to call option open interest has decreased, and the market's bearish sentiment is gradually receding [12] - **Capital Trends**: The net short - position of key industrial silicon seats has decreased recently, indicating that some institutions are closing their short positions [14] - **Month - Spread Structure**: The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable [16] - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is generally at a normal level [18] 3.3 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of various grades of industrial silicon in different regions, industrial silicon powder, and downstream products such as trichlorosilane, polysilicon N - type price index, silicone DMC, and aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged this week, except that the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased by 50 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.23% [20][21] 4. Valuation and Profit 4.1 Tracking of Upstream and Downstream Profits in the Industry Chain - Since reaching the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit level of the silicone industry is showing a warming trend [22] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly production and start - up rate data of industrial silicon samples in different regions show that there are different degrees of changes. For example, the weekly production of BAIINFO's industrial silicon increased by 400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.64%, and the start - up rate of Shanghai Steel Union's industrial silicon decreased by 0.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.79% [25][27] - **Inventory**: There are various inventory data for industrial silicon in different regions and types, such as the weekly inventory of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, Yunnan, Sichuan, and social inventories in ports like Kunming, Huangpu, and Tianjin [35][36] 5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, with SMM's weekly production decreasing by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.40%, and BAIINFO's weekly production decreasing by 140 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53%. The start - up rate also decreased, with BAIINFO's weekly start - up rate decreasing by 1%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0238 [40] - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory data of domestic polysilicon shows that the total inventory is 512,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.015%, and there are also changes in the inventories of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [42] 5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - **Production and Start - up Rate**: The weekly start - up rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys remained stable, with the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy unchanged at 60%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy unchanged at 59.8%. The weekly inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased by 0.13 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%, and that of secondary aluminum alloy decreased by 100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51% [45] 5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased by 0.07 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.43% [49] 5.5 Terminal - There are data on China's total commercial housing sales area (residential + office + shops), monthly automobile production, and monthly new photovoltaic installed capacity [52]

南华期货乙二醇产业周报 ——煤价颓势不改，支撑位再度下调 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月21日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 总体而言，乙二醇需求端终端订单进一步下滑，需求负反馈将逐步向聚酯环节传导，聚酯需求12月月均 负荷预期91%附近，预计聚酯开工下滑将从12月底起逐步兑现。需求端难抱预期的同时，供应端前期初步释 放支撑信号，部分乙烯制装置集中降负叠加煤制停车装置重启延迟，随着负反馈信号出现静态供需平衡有所 好转，预计估值继续向下大幅压缩的难度提高。但除了自身供需之外，成本端油煤目前仍然维持双弱趋势， 若后续利润随着成本端下行而继续修复，检修预期兑现程度可能将不及预期。因此存量供应仍将长期压制估 值的反弹空间，不低的显性库存也为可能出现的流动性矛盾提供了缓冲空间，供应端或需求端的小幅超预期 若无法扭转长期格局则走势均只能定性为阶段性反弹，对"反转"的期待更可能依赖宏观叙事的驱动，在此之前 过剩预期压制估值以清退边际产能的交易主线逻辑仍将延续。 ∗ 主 ...

南华期货铁矿石周报 ——上有供给压制，下有铁水支撑 周甫翰 （投资咨询资格证号：Z0020173） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【核心矛盾】 目前铁矿石价格仍区间运行，价格上方有高供给压制，下方有钢厂利润、铁水修复预期支撑，短期估值修 复后预计价格继续大幅上行空间不大。 【利多因素】 1.钢厂利润回升，产业链矛盾缩小 2.螺纹钢基本面有所好转，库存下降 【利空因素】 1. 铁矿石发运整体偏高，整体现货不缺 3.焦煤有止跌的迹象，对铁矿石价格的跷跷板支撑作用减弱 发运端，铁矿石发运环比增加，年底发运增量显著。年同比发运过剩量在加速上升，目前全年发运累计同 比增量在4500万吨，其中3300万吨来自于非主流矿。非主流矿发运在超季节性高位，目前成为了供给增量的 主力。铁矿石发运整体在高位，供给压力仍大，发运偏高对价格上方形成压制。 需求端，铁水产量继续环比下降。但是从未来检修数据看，预计铁水产量在未来1-2周见底。钢厂利润在减 产后回升，钢厂复产增产的驱动增加。五大材整体供需双弱，但产量下降大于库存下降的幅度，使得去库斜 率 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, winter storage policies were gradually introduced. A refinery in Shandong released a winter storage contract at 2,900 yuan/ton for the end of March. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm was stronger than expected, and the futures market offered premiums and opportunities for positive arbitrage. However, major refineries in South China increased production and lowered prices, impacting the local market and even having a price advantage when transported to Northeast China considering logistics costs. Additionally, the continuous pressure from the US on Venezuela and the potential for military conflict led to supply disruptions in the asphalt raw material end, increasing asphalt price volatility [2]. - Refinery开工率 increased this week due to the resumption of production in Shandong refineries and increased production by major South China refineries, driving up overall asphalt supply. On the demand side, spot market trading improved as prices declined, but the end - of - peak - season performance in the South was not as expected. Factory inventories slightly increased, while social inventories remained stable. Crude oil prices, the cost factor, were weakly volatile. Spot basis remained stable, consistent with the weakening demand trend. In the long - term, demand in the North will end with the drop in temperature, while the end - of - peak - season demand in the South may boost overall consumption. Overall, the peak season for asphalt did not exceed expectations. In the short - term, the focus should be on the subsequent winter storage situation of refineries and whether they will further adjust prices to stimulate purchasing. Due to geopolitical and negotiation uncertainties in the crude oil cost factor, asphalt is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the short - term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The release of winter storage policies in Shandong provided a valuation anchor for the spot market. The potential for the US to promote an early end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict suppressed crude oil prices, while the increased military threat to Venezuela pushed up futures prices due to raw material shortage expectations. The US's strengthened sanctions on Russian oil companies may cause short - term disruptions to domestic refinery raw material imports [2][7]. - The increase in low - price point - of - sale resources and the release of short - term low - price contracts by some local refineries. Currently, asphalt is in the end - of - peak - season stage. A significant downward movement in asphalt prices still depends on the cost factor, crude oil. Given the current crude oil trend and refinery profits, this year's winter storage may not provide a favorable basis spread for the mid - and downstream, and there may still be a problem of insufficient volume [7]. - The expected demand impulse in the "15th Five - Year Plan" was a lackluster performance, mainly due to the persistent shortage of funds [7]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to be bullish and volatile. Technical analysis should focus on the support level performance of BU2603. Strategy recommendations in this part are temporarily suspended [11]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The basis is expected to be bearish as spot prices are weak and the demand peak is passing. The calendar spread may show a weakening seasonal trend as the basis is weak. The crack spread between asphalt and crude oil has a short - term bullish driver. Detailed strategies in this part are temporarily suspended [11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is predicted to be between 2,800 - 3,150 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.15%, and its historical percentile over three years is 38.97% [12]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations**: For inventory management, if product inventories are high and there are concerns about price drops, companies can short asphalt futures to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a short - selling ratio of 25% in the range of 3,100 - 3,300 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options to reduce capital costs, with a selling ratio of 20% in the range of 30 - 40 yuan/ton. For procurement management, if the regular procurement inventory is low and companies want to purchase according to orders, they can buy asphalt futures at the current stage to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a buying ratio of 50% in the range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, with a selling ratio of 20% in the range of 25 - 35 yuan/ton [12][13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Likely Positive Information**: A Shandong refinery released a winter storage contract at 2,900 yuan/ton, boosting market expectations. Tensions between the US and Venezuela increased, with the possibility of military conflict [18]. - **Likely Negative Information**: Asphalt consumption entered the off - season, and demand was under pressure. The US urged Ukraine to resolve the battlefield issue, and the geopolitical premium of crude oil may decline. Major South China refineries increased production and lowered prices, impacting the spot market [18]. - **Domestic Asphalt Market Overview**: This week, asphalt prices in Northeast and North China increased by 15 - 20 yuan/ton, while prices in Northwest, Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, South China, and Southwest China decreased by 25 - 350 yuan/ton. In North China, limited spot resource circulation was beneficial for traders to raise prices. In the Northwest, the price of Zhenhai's rail - transported asphalt decreased, lowering the regional price center. In Shandong, the resumption of production by the main refinery increased supply and decreased demand, leading to price drops for some local brands. In East China, supply was abundant, and some prices were lowered. In South China, a major refinery significantly increased production and reduced prices for road, sea, and rail transportation to ensure smooth sales [17]. - **Spot Market Outlook**: Demand in the North will stop, but limited supply growth and low factory inventories will limit price drops. In the South, the end - of - peak - season demand is decreasing, and sufficient supply in South and East China is negative for asphalt prices [19]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Key Events - Geopolitical situation changes, including Venezuela's latest crude oil shipping and arrival logistics. - Russia's crude oil export and shipping situation, the possibility of an end to the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and changes in floating storage inventories at sea. - Asphalt winter storage policies [20]. 3.3 Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Flow**: This week, asphalt futures prices showed a volatile trend, and market sentiment was cautious. The net short positions of key profitable seats in the asphalt market decreased, indicating that some institutions were more optimistic about the future. Overall, the decrease in net short positions increased the downward resistance of asphalt, and the market may continue to be volatile in the short - term [22]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the asphalt basis structure showed signs of stabilization, with the futures market close to parity. The release of winter storage policies supported market activity, despite weak demand [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The asphalt calendar spread structure continued to weaken, in line with the approaching off - season [37]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As of December 18, compared with December 11, the price of coking materials in Shandong remained stable at 3,525 yuan/ton. Weak international oil prices earlier led to price drops in diesel and petroleum coke, reducing market enthusiasm for coking materials. However, later price increases in crude oil improved market trading. The mainstream transaction price of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 2,960 - 3,350 yuan/ton. The demand for asphalt was shrinking, and the high prices of Sinopec refineries hindered sales. On Monday, the settlement price was lowered by 100 yuan/ton, and preferential policies were introduced, increasing the enthusiasm of mid - and downstream users. Some local refineries' short - term contract prices dropped below 2,800 yuan/ton. The main local refineries introduced winter storage policies at 2,920 yuan/ton, which were well - received by end - users. This week, the price gap between asphalt and coking materials in Shandong widened to over 600 yuan/ton, slightly reducing the profitability of asphalt production. Uncertain future supply of diluted asphalt led some refineries to produce asphalt at low levels or intermittently, providing some bottom support for asphalt prices [41]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - **South Korea Market**: South Korean asphalt cargoes arriving in East China cost 400 - 410 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 3,280 - 3,360 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands had a premium over domestic products due to quality and specific project demand. Mid - and downstream users in East China mainly consumed inventory. Some individual brands with lower prices, such as the January cargoes with a duty - paid price of 2,950 yuan/ton in East China, were attractive to some mid - and downstream users [49]. - **Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand Markets**: Singaporean asphalt cargoes arriving in South China cost 490 - 500 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 3,930 - 4,010 yuan/ton. Thai asphalt cargoes arriving in South China cost 515 - 525 US dollars/ton, with a RMB duty - paid price of 4,130 - 4,210 yuan/ton. The end - of - peak - season demand in South China supported the consumption of imported resources, most of which were from previous long - term contracts. In Southeast Asia, reduced typhoon activity increased demand, gradually consuming inventory, which will support the local spot market in the future [49]. - **Imported Asphalt Market Overview and Outlook**: Affected by the decline in crude oil and fuel oil prices, the price of some South Korean January cargoes continued to fall [49]. 3.5 Supply, Demand, and Inventory Analysis 3.5.1 Supply and Forecast - According to Baichuan Yingfu statistics, from January to November 2025, China's asphalt production was 26.04 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.78 million tons or 12%. Among them, PetroChina's refineries produced 5.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 million tons or 32%; Sinopec's refineries produced 5.87 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.75 million tons or 11%; CNOOC's asphalt production was 1.91 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%; and local refineries produced 13.23 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.13 million tons or 19%. Based on the current production plan, China's asphalt production from January to December 2025 is expected to be about 28.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.79 million tons or 11%. It is expected that PetroChina's refineries will produce about 5.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.28 million tons or 31%; Sinopec's refineries will produce about 6.29 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.98 million tons or 13%; CNOOC's asphalt production will be about 2.10 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%; and local refineries will produce about 14.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.28 million tons or 19% [52]. 3.5.2 Demand and Forecast - Demand in Central and South China was steadily released, increasing the operating rate of modified asphalt production. However, the end - of - peak - season demand in East China decreased, reducing the operating rate of modified asphalt production [71]. 3.5.3 Inventory and Forecast - In North, Northwest, and Northeast China, some social warehouses received winter storage resources, increasing the local social inventory rate. In Central China, reduced project demand in some areas and the receipt of shipping resources in some social warehouses also increased the social inventory rate [86]. 3.5.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the monthly supply - demand balance sheet for asphalt from January to November 2025, including data on production, imports, exports, apparent consumption, actual demand, and inventory changes [111]. 3.5.5 Weather Outlook In the next 10 days (December 20 - 29), cumulative precipitation in northern and southwestern Xinjiang, western Gansu, southern Shaanxi, northeastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, Shandong, Jianghan, northern and western Jiangnan, South China, and eastern Southwest China will be 5 - 20 mm. In some areas of southwestern Xinjiang, southern Sichuan, Chongqing, eastern Guizhou, and Taiwan, it will be 25 - 40 mm, with local areas exceeding 50 mm. Cumulative precipitation in Northeast China and eastern Southwest China will be 40 - 80% higher than the same period of the year, with some areas more than doubling. Precipitation in most other areas of China will be significantly lower [112].

南华期货PX-TA产业周报 ——良好预期推高估值 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428 ） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业资格证号：F03133676） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 PTA在四季度以来的减产程度超出前期市场预期，目前表现出的高度自律也让PX-TA的结构性矛盾大幅 缓解。后续从供需结构上来看，2026上半年PTA静态对下游需求维持紧张格局，但随着去库与加工费修复预 期兑现，存量装置仍随时可能回归，因此PTA加工费预期中枢上移但空间较为有限，而最终去库情况同样需 要视PTA的减产力度而定。但抛开中间PX-TA-聚酯的动态平衡，而直接从PX对聚酯来看，PX当前已处于"能 开尽开"的状态，一季度预计随聚酯淡季小幅累库，而二季度则将大幅紧缺，上半年整体维持紧张格局。总体 而言，PX的良好供需格局确定性较高，当供需后续出现超预期的情况价格弹性将被大幅放大，从而引发向上 的流动性行情。在市场一致看好预期下预计保持易涨难跌，但当前尚未出现核心驱动，多配主要出于对格局 看好的考虑。因此后续随着现实端需求负反馈逐步向上传 ...

南华期货原油产业周报 —— 美委紧张升级，地缘驱动回归 杨歆悦 投资咨询证书：Z0022518 联系邮箱：yangxy@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 油价在地缘局势不确定性和基本面持续疲软的情况下区间波动。美委内瑞拉紧张局势加剧的背景下，油价止 跌反弹。特朗普已下令 "全面彻底封锁" 进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮，这加剧了要求总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗下台 的压力。委内瑞拉在11月份出口了约60万桶/日的石油。鉴于最新的事态发展，这些交易量很可能会下降。标 普数据显示，在美国升级驱逐马杜罗之后，前往委内瑞拉的油轮数量有所下降。地缘局势升级将给短期油价 带来上行驱动，后续关注美委局势进展。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 原油波动率和VIX source： wind,南华研究,彭博 美国原油ETF隐 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国通胀超预期放缓 【市场资讯】1）吴清出席中国资本市场学会学术委员会成立会议并召开资本市场"十五五" 规划专家座谈会。2）特朗普：下一任美联储主席必须是"超级鸽派"，将很快公布人选。特 朗普称赞沃勒和鲍曼。3）美国通胀超预期放缓，11 月核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.6%，创 2021 年 以来最低。美联储主席最热人选哈塞特：CPI 报告好得令人震惊，美联储有很大空间可以 降息。然而，经济学家怀疑政府关门导致数据失真，有人指明显出错。4）美国上周首申人 数回落至 22.4 万人，扭转此前激增趋势。5）10 月日本、英国增持美债超百亿美元，中国 持仓下降，加拿大大降。6）欧央行连续第四次按兵不动，重申通胀将在中期回归 2%目标， 未释放明确宽松指引。拉加德暗示欧央行不急行动：政策处于有利位置，未预设利率路径， 任何选项都应考虑。报道：欧央行官员们表示，降息周期很有可能结束了。7）英国央行 "鹰派"降息 25 个基点，5 比 4 惊险过关，称进一步判断宽松将更艰难。8）德国史无前例， 上调明年发债规模至 5120 亿欧元，为基建和国防输血。 【核心逻辑】海外方面，美联储 12 月议息会议如期降 ...

南华期货碳酸锂数据日报 2025年12月18日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 一、期货数据 碳酸锂期货主力合约 source： 同花顺,南华研究 元/吨 碳酸锂期货主力合约收盘价 碳酸锂期货主力合约成交量(右轴) 碳酸锂期货主力合约持仓量(右轴) 手 24/12 25/01 25/02 25/03 25/04 25/05 25/06 25/07 25/08 25/09 25/10 25/11 60000 80000 100000 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 碳酸锂期货数据 | 指标 | 本期值 | 日涨跌 | 日环比 | 周涨跌 | 周环比 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力合约收盘价 | 106160 | -2460 | -2.26% | 7280 | 7.36% | 元/吨 | | 主力合约成交量 | 1013916 | -144695 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, with increased supply but supported by exports, the fundamentals of iron ore may weaken marginally, yet there could be periods of structural shortages, and demand at the lower end is supported. Domestic demand remains stable overall, while overseas demand is strong. It is expected that the price trend will not be significant, maintaining a wide - ranging oscillatory pattern. The price range for the fourth quarter is Platts 62: [90, 115], and the iron ore index is [700, 900]. The recommended industrial risk management strategy is range - bound operation [4][5][117] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Iron Ore Price Review in 2025 - **January 15 - February 21**: Pessimistic expectations were reversed, and supply disruptions supported price increases. The black market followed the stock market, with positive domestic and overseas macro - sentiments. Three hurricanes affected Western Australia ports, reducing global shipments, and the spot market was tight. After the Spring Festival, the rapid resumption of coking coal production and inventory accumulation also supported iron ore prices [6] - **February 22 - April 8**: Both expectations and fundamentals weakened. After the hurricane, shipping resumed, and the black market diverged from the stock market. Tariff policies and the expectation of crude steel reduction led to a downward trend in prices [7] - **April 9 - June 18**: A temporary balance was reached after risk release. After the tariff shock in early April, the iron ore valuation was low, but the actual demand remained strong, with increasing hot metal production and decreasing port inventory. The Geneva Agreement led to a price increase, but the subsequent weakening of export demand and the cooling of the US economy led to a period of low - volatility oscillation [8] - **June 19 - September 22**: Iron ore prices bottomed out in late June and then rose steadily. The anti - involution trading in the commodity market drove up the price of iron ore through the increase in steel prices and the improvement of steel mill profits. The falsification of the previous pessimistic expectations also contributed to the price rebound [9] - **September 23 - Present**: Overall demand weakened, but the supply of coking coal and the structural shortage of iron ore supported prices, resulting in a wide - ranging price oscillation. The continuous high hot metal production led to over - seasonal inventory accumulation of steel products, and the decline in steel mill profits increased the pressure of negative feedback production cuts. However, the decline in coking coal prices and the structural shortage of medium - grade ore supported the price of iron ore [11] 2. Supply - **2025 Supply Situation**: The global iron ore supply in 2025 was tight at first and then loose. As of early December 2025, the global shipment was about 1.46 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The supply in China was generally balanced, with a 0.7% year - on - year increase in imports from January to October and a 1.35% year - on - year decrease in domestic iron concentrate production. The main suppliers, Australia and Brazil, faced production and shipping difficulties due to natural disasters [14][21] - **Key Suppliers' Situations**: - **Australia**: In early 2025, the Pilbara region in Western Australia was hit by severe hurricanes, causing production stoppages, port closures, and transportation disruptions. In February, Cyclone "Zelia" forced Port Hedland to close for 3 days, and Rio Tinto's first - quarter shipments decreased by 9.35% year - on - year [23] - **Brazil**: In early 2025, heavy rainfall and floods in the northern mining areas affected mining and transportation. The export revenue of iron ore to China in the first quarter decreased by 21.8% year - on - year, and the shipment volume decreased by 5% - 8% [23] - **India**: It is shifting from a net exporter to a net importer. In 2025, its imports increased significantly, and exports decreased sharply. The government's policy to support the domestic steel industry and the expansion of the steel industry led to an increase in demand for iron ore [26] - **Russia**: In 2025, China's imports from Russia increased by 42.23% year - on - year. The decline in Russia's domestic steel industry demand and the optimization of the Sino - Russian railway logistics system contributed to this increase [30] - **Mongolia**: In the first 10 months of 2024, its exports to China increased by 21.84% year - on - year, mainly due to the improvement of port clearance efficiency and the construction of cross - border railway networks [31] - **Four Major Mines**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the total production of the world's four major mines increased year - on - year, but there were internal differences. Vale and FMG had obvious production increases, while BHP and Rio Tinto had some production declines or challenges. The S11D project of Vale and the Western Range project of Rio Tinto are important production - increasing projects [38][39] - **Domestic Mines**: The cumulative production of domestic iron concentrate was about 215 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.35%, mainly due to safety inspections and rainfall in the north. Currently, domestic mines are in the process of resuming production [64] - **2026 Supply Outlook**: It is expected that the iron ore supply in 2026 will increase steadily, with the increment mainly coming from Simandou and Brazil. With high prices supporting shipments and new capacity coming online, shipments are expected to increase by 2% year - on - year, equivalent to about 30 million tons of iron concentrate [68] 3. Demand - **Overall Demand Outlook in 2026**: The demand pattern of the black market has shifted from domestic - driven to external - driven. In 2026, the "weak domestic and strong overseas" structure is expected to continue. Domestic infrastructure and real estate demand will be weak, while the export chain will be the main support for black metal demand. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts may stimulate overseas manufacturing demand, which is beneficial for China's steel exports [69][70] - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: The real estate industry is still in a bottom - grinding stage, and sales are expected to continue to decline in 2026. Infrastructure investment has also shown signs of weakening. However, the new construction area of real estate may improve marginally in 2026, which may reduce the drag on rebar demand [76][77] - **Hot Metal Production**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was 2.3748 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.43%. Currently, steel mill profits have declined, but with the concession of coking coal prices, there is still some production profit. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel industry has been alleviated, and hot metal production has decreased [83] - **Steel Mill Supply Structure and Downstream Demand**: In 2025, downstream steel mill demand was supported by exports. The demand for building materials decreased, while the demand for plate steel maintained positive growth, but the growth rate slowed down. Steel mills adjusted their supply structure through production transfer [86][87] - **Export Support**: Overseas exports are still an important support for steel demand. In October 2025, China's steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3%. From January to October, the cumulative steel exports were 97.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. It is expected that in 2026, the year - on - year growth rate of steel exports will remain positive, but the decline may narrow further [95] 4. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: Due to the impact of hurricanes and high hot metal production in the first three quarters of 2025, port inventory decreased marginally. Currently, shipments have recovered, and port inventory may start to accumulate again, which will suppress the upward space of iron ore prices. There is also a structural shortage of iron ore, especially for the medium - grade ore required by steel mills [98] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mills adhere to the low - inventory strategy for raw materials, with a relatively high proportion of trading ore. The global iron ore floating inventory is currently high, and the arrival rhythm of iron ore is expected to accelerate. The shipping cost of iron ore has increased, and its weight in the iron ore price has also increased [100][103] 5. Valuation - **Term Structure**: The term structure of iron ore remains in a back structure, but the contango of the far - month contracts has narrowed. In 2026, attention can be paid to the opportunities of structural shortages between ore powders and months for arbitrage trading [107] - **Iron - Scrap Price Difference**: The cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has significantly improved in the past six months. In 2026, attention should be paid to the strengthening of the substitution effect of scrap steel on iron ore [110] - **Coking Coal/Iron Ore Seesaw Effect**: In 2025, the price seesaw effect between coking coal and iron ore was significant. In 2026, this effect is expected to continue under the background of low - profit operation of steel mills [112][113] - **Volatility**: In 2025, the implied volatility of iron ore options was generally decreasing. It is expected that the volatility will remain at a low level, but attention should be paid to potential volatility increases due to sudden macro - events [115]

——原料刚性约束与存量需求韧性的双重共振 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 观点概要 摘要： 展望2026年，全球铅市将由紧平衡转向累库周期，但国内受再生铅原料瓶颈制约，将走出独立的成本防 御行情，呈现外弱内强特征。预计沪铅主力运行区间16200-18200元/吨左右，伦铅1950-2200美元/吨附 近。 供给侧分化显著：原生铅受副产品高利润驱动将维持高产，贡献主要增量；而再生铅受制于财税合规及 反向开票政策，废电瓶有效供给面临10%-15%折损，迫使产量增长停滞。原料端的隐性紧缩将确立再生铅成 本线为行业定价的坚实底座。 需求端步入存量主导时代，增速预计维持1.5%。两轮车新国标限重放宽至63kg将助推铅酸份额回升， 有效对冲锂电替代。全球10.2万吨的过剩量主要累积于海外，国内仅约3万吨微幅过剩，意味着国内显性库存 仍将维持低位，出口窗口难以开启。 南华期货有色金属铅2026年度展望 3.1 矿端：转向紧平衡 预测区间：沪铅16200-18200元/吨附近，伦铅1950至2200美元/吨左右 风险提示：宏观衰退，关税影响超预期，供给端扰 ...