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南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:32
南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年09月23日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书:Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号:F03144703 联系邮箱:yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 震荡区间:8000-9000 | 32.0% | 87.9% | source: 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | | 套保比例 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 销售工业硅 未来有生产工业硅的计划,担心销售工业硅时价格下跌导致销售利 润减少的风险 | 为防止价格下跌 导致销售利润减 少,企业需在采 | 期货 | 依据生产计划卖出对应期货合约 | 40% | 根据销售利润 | | | | 到原料的同时卖 | | | | | | | | 出期 ...
国债期货日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:27
国债期货日报 2025/09/23 徐晨曦(投资咨询证号:Z0001908) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290 观点:关注央行态度 盘面点评: 周二期债开盘后快速下挫,日内反弹无果,品种全线收跌。公开市场仅开展7天逆回购,净回笼109亿。资金 面趋于平稳,DR001回落至1.41%。 | | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-22 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-09-23 | 2025-09-22 | 今日变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.396 | -0.044 | TS合约持仓(手) | 75408 | 76728 | -1320 | | TF2512 | 105.645 | 105.76 | -0.115 | TF合约持仓(手) | 144278 | 151551 | -7273 | | T2512 | 107.755 | 107.945 | -0.19 | T合约持仓(手) | 246257 | 251433 | -5176 | | TL2512 | 1 ...
棉花产业?险管理?报:采棉集中上市情况
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:27
| 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | | 13500-14200 | 0.0882 | 0.2287 | source: 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/9/23 陈嘉宁(投资咨询证号:Z0020097 ) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 【利多解读】 1、本年度在新疆纺纱产能提升及进口棉大幅缩减之下,下游棉花刚性消费量提高,疆棉去库速度较快,整体 库存水平偏低,据中国棉花信息网调查显示,截至9月15日,国内棉花工商业库存为203.80万吨,较上月低减 少33.60万吨。 2、8月份,服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类商品零售额为1045亿元,同比增长3.1%,环比增长8.74%。下游随着"金 九银十"的到来,走货环比好转,纱布厂产成品库存进一步去化。 【利空解读】 1、目前新疆新棉生长进度较快,整体长势良好,新年度维持丰产预期,棉价上方将存在较大的套保压力。 2、海关总署最新数据显示,2025年8月我国出口纺织品服装265.39亿美元,同比下降5 ...
铁合金产业风险管理日报-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 09:27
Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 23, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the iron alloy market include the contradiction between high supply and weak demand, cost support with electricity price hikes and manganese ore supply disturbances, the contradiction between the improvement of the term structure and capital withdrawal, and the contradiction between anti - involution expectations and weak reality [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the iron alloy market. Positive factors include potential policy - related supply contractions and inventory reductions, while negative factors include weak downstream demand and inventory increases in some products [7][8][9] Summary by Directory Iron Alloy Price Forecast and Hedging - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for silicon iron is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.68% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 18.5%. For silicon manganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a volatility of 12.10% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 12.9% [3] - **Hedging Strategies**: For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 15% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 6200 - 6250 for SF and 6400 - 6500 for SM. For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio, with an entry range of 5100 - 5200 for SF and 5300 - 5400 for SM [3] Core Contradictions - **High Supply and Weak Demand**: Although production profits initially declined in early September, they have now recovered, and production remains at a high level. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and there may be a situation of "peak season without prosperity" [4] - **Cost Support**: Ningxia's electricity price has been raised by 2 cents to 0.4 yuan/kWh, and the silicon - iron spot price in some areas is lower than the cost price, forming a cost - bottom expectation. There are rumors of a possible reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, but currently, the supply is relatively sufficient [4] - **Term Structure and Capital**: The term structure of iron alloy has improved, with some contracts changing from contango to backwardation, which is favorable for short - term price increases. However, the term structure of coking coal has not improved, and the contango has deepened. Meanwhile, the iron alloy's open interest has been declining for two consecutive weeks [4] - **Anti - Involution Expectations**: There are still expectations of supply - side contractions, but there is a lack of substantial actions, and there is a high risk of price surges followed by declines [5] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: There are rumors of an increase in the standard for metallurgical industry submerged arc furnaces to 33000KVA. An important article in the 18th issue of Qiushi magazine may help regulate the market. Silicon - iron enterprise inventory and total inventory have decreased, with a 9.3% and 0.53% month - on - month decline respectively [7] - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control over high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading. There are rumors of a reduction in Gabon's manganese ore shipments in October, which may affect the cost of manganese - silicon [7] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon - iron enterprise operating rate remains high, while downstream demand is weak [8] - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. Silicon - manganese enterprise inventory has increased by 19.24% month - on - month, and the total inventory has increased by 5.97% month - on - month. Hebei Iron and Steel Group's September silicon - manganese price has decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to August [9] Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 82, with a daily increase of 118 and a weekly increase of 152. The silicon - iron warehouse receipts decreased by 243 compared to the previous day [10] - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 22, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 210, with a daily increase of 94 and a weekly increase of 86. The silicon - manganese warehouse receipts decreased by 629 compared to the previous day [11] Graphical Data - The report includes graphs of the term structure spreads of silicon iron, silicon manganese, and coking coal, as well as seasonal graphs of market prices, basis, and inventory of silicon iron and silicon manganese [12][15][25]
金融期货早评-20250923
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 02:42
Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].
南华煤焦产业风险管理日报-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 11:06
南华煤焦产业风险管理日报 2025/09/22 南华研究院 黑色研究团队 张泫:Z0022723 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 双焦价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 1200-1350 | 41.63% | 81.94% | | 焦炭 | 1650-1850 | 31.38% | 67.08% | source: 南华研究,wind 双焦风险管理策略建议 利可关注煤焦1-5反套。 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方 | 建议套保 | 建议入场区 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | 具 | 向 | 比例 | 间 | | 库存套 | | | 做空焦炭260 | | | 25% | (1780,18 30) | | 保 | 焦炭开工快速恢复,现货供需趋于宽松,焦企担心未来销售价格下降,想提前锁定焦炭销售价格 | 多 | 1合约 ...
集装箱产业风险管理日报-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:57
集装箱产业风险管理日报 2025/09/22 俞俊臣(投资咨询证号:Z0021065) 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 EC风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位,但运力偏饱满,或订舱货量不佳,旺季不 | 旺,担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失,可根据企业舱位,做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 | 1100~1200 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大,或即将进入市场旺季,希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本,可以在当前买入集 运指数期货,以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 | 900~1000 | | source: 南华期货 | | | | | | | 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数(欧线)期货(EC)价格高开震荡。 截至收盘,EC各合约价格都有不同程度回升。从交 易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看,EC2510合约 ...
南华干散货运输市场日报:小麦、大豆发运量大幅减少,拖累灵便型船舶运输需求,BSI运价指数由涨转跌-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the reporting date, the shipment volume of industrial products remained high, marginally supporting the transportation demand for Capesize vessels. The Capesize vessel freight index BCI maintained a weekly increase, supporting the continued rise of the BDI composite freight index. However, the BPI freight index continued to decline, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling, indicating that freight rates on some routes were starting to weaken. The significant reduction in wheat and soybean shipments dragged down the transportation demand for Handysize vessels, while the high shipment volume of industrial products such as Australian iron ore, South African coal, Russian coal, and Guinean bauxite supported the transportation demand for Capesize vessels [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Spot Index Review 3.1.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - Compared with the data on September 12, the range of decline in the route - specific freight index widened, the decline of the BPI freight index increased, and the BSI freight index turned from rising to falling. In addition, the weekly increase of the BCI freight index narrowed, which also led to a narrowing of the increase in the BDI composite freight index. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2203 points, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%; the BCI freight index closed at 3437 points, a week - on - week increase of 11.95%; the BPI freight index closed at 1845 points, a week - on - week decrease of 8.03%; the BSI freight index closed at 1489 points, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%; the BHSI freight index closed at 815 points, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [4]. 3.1.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On September 18, the FDI composite index, FDI rental freight index, and FDI spot freight index all rebounded, but the rebound amplitude decreased. In the FDI rental freight index, the rental freight of Capesize vessels still increased month - on - month. Specifically, the FDI composite freight index closed at 1389.93 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the FDI rental index closed at 1725.57 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.97%; among them, the Capesize vessel rental index closed at 1926.47 points, a month - on - month increase of 2.29%; the Panamax vessel rental index closed at 1550.88 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%; the Handymax vessel rental index closed at 1632.4 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21%; the FDI freight index closed at 1166.17 points, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [9]. 3.2 Dry Bulk Shipment Situation Tracking 3.2.1 Number of Vessels Used for Shipment in Sending Countries on the Day - The main sending countries of industrial products include Indonesia, Australia, Guinea, Russia, the United States, South Africa, Brazil, Canada, India, Colombia, Serbia, and Mozambique. The main sending countries of agricultural products include Russia, Argentina, Australia, Ukraine, and the United States. On September 22, among the main sending countries of agricultural products, Brazil used 50 vessels for shipment, Russia used 14 vessels, Argentina used 22 vessels, and Australia used 3 vessels. Among the main sending countries of industrial products, Australia used 57 vessels, Guinea used 34 vessels, Indonesia used 39 vessels, Russia used 20 vessels, South Africa used 18 vessels, Brazil used 12 vessels, and the United States used 11 vessels [14][15]. 3.2.2 Analysis of Shipment Volume and Vessel Usage on the Day - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 21 vessels were used for corn shipment, 21 for wheat, 11 for soybeans, 12 for soybean meal, and 17 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 108 vessels were used for coal, 82 for iron ore, and 15 for other dry goods. In terms of vessel types, the largest number of vessels required for agricultural product shipments was 35 Post - Panamax vessels, followed by 21 Handymax vessels, and finally 17 Handysize vessels. For industrial product shipments, the largest number was 96 Capesize vessels, followed by 71 Post - Panamax vessels, and finally 53 Handymax vessels [15]. 3.3 Tracking of the Number of Vessels at Major Ports - The data for the week showed that the number of vessels at major Chinese ports decreased week - on - week. Data from mid - to late September showed that "three ports increased, two ports decreased." The expected number of dry - bulk vessels docked at Chinese ports increased by 8 week - on - week, the number of vessels docked at six Australian ports decreased by 5 week - on - week, the number of vessels at South African ports increased by 1 week - on - week, the number of vessels at Brazilian ports increased by 1 week - on - week, and the number of vessels at six Indonesian ports decreased by 2 week - on - week [16]. 3.4 Relationship between Freight and Commodity Prices - On September 19, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $40 per ton. On September 22, the near - term shipping quote for Brazilian soybeans was 3945.57 yuan per ton. On September 18, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $30205 per day. On September 19, the latest quote for the CIF price of iron ore was $120.75 per thousand tons. On September 18, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $14490 per day. On September 18, the latest quote for the CIF price of thermal coal was 558.34 yuan per ton. On September 19, the Handysize vessel freight index was quoted at 807.6 points. On September 19, the CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade ACFR radiata pine was quoted at $114 per cubic meter [19].
甲醇产业风险管理日报-20250922
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:49
甲醇产业风险管理日报 2025/09/22 张博(投资咨询证号:Z0021070) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 甲醇价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测(月度) | 当前波动率(20日滚动) | 当前波动率历史百分位(3年) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 | 2200-2500 | 20.01% | 51.2% | | 聚丙烯 | 6800-7400 | 10.56% | 42.2% | | 塑料 | 6800-7400 | 15.24% | 78.5% | source: 南华研究 甲醇套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 理 | 跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失,可以根据企业的库存情况,做空甲醇期货来锁定利 润,弥补企业的生产成本 | MA2601 | 卖出 | 25% | 2250-235 0 15 ...
股指期货:多空博弈,震荡延续
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 10:45
Report Title - "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" released on September 22, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The stock market was oscillating strongly today. In terms of index style, small and medium - cap stock indices were dominant again. The trading volume of the two markets narrowed to around 2.1 trillion yuan. The phone call between the Chinese and US leaders sent a positive signal. The volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures declined today, affected by the decline of most futures contract basis and the listing of new contracts. Recently, the news was relatively calm and lacked unexpected information. The market was mainly a game between bulls and bears. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, some funds might leave the market to deal with uncertain risks, resulting in a decline in both spot and futures trading volume and a weakening of market trading enthusiasm. However, supported by the expectation of favorable policies, the downside space of the stock index was limited. It was expected that the stock index would continue to oscillate in the short term [4] Market Review - The stock index oscillated strongly today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.46%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2023.47 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with increasing volume, while the rest rose with decreasing volume [2] Important Information - The Chinese and US leaders had a phone call. According to the Global Times, Trump said the call was "very productive", and the two leaders would meet during the APEC meeting and he planned to visit China early next year. The 5 - year and 1 - year LPR quotes remained unchanged in September. The State Council Information Office held a press conference on the "High - quality Completion of the 14th Five - Year Plan" series of themes at 3 p.m. [3][6] Strategy Recommendation - It is recommended to mainly hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday gain/loss (%) | 0.30 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.39 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 11.0121 | 5.0813 | 11.4627 | 21.3295 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.2955 | - 1.6499 | - 7.2929 | - 10.545 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.6208 | 9.9659 | 23.8802 | 35.4212 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.0745 | 0.3869 | - 0.743 | - 1.0197 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index gain/loss (%) | 0.22 | | Shenzhen Component Index gain/loss (%) | 0.67 | | Ratio of rising and falling stocks | 0.69 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 21214.83 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (billion yuan) | - 2023.47 | [7]