Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: 2025/09/05 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0001908) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report suggests a trading strategy of taking advantage of market fluctuations. It advises buying on dips and setting profit targets. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in a situation where stocks are strong and bonds are weak, as long as the A-share market does not show an obvious downward trend [2][4] Key Points Summarized by Section Market Performance - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down across the board, with TL experiencing the largest decline. Spot bond yields rose across the board but fell back after the futures market closed. The open market had a net withdrawal of 59.46 billion yuan. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 remaining around 1.31% [2] - The A-share market's sharp adjustment the previous day did not bring more upward momentum to the bond market. Instead, the bond market declined as the stock market rebounded strongly. The 30-year Treasury bond issuance rate was slightly higher, and the situation was mediocre [4] Specific Contract Data | Contract | 2025-09-05 Price | 2025-09-04 Price | Change | 2025-09-05 Position | 2025-09-04 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.388 | 102.44 | -0.052 | 73,830 | 76,004 | -2,174 | | TF2512 | 105.58 | 105.745 | -0.165 | 139,550 | 142,981 | -3,431 | | T2512 | 107.92 | 108.27 | -0.35 | 218,747 | 217,136 | 1,611 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 117.4 | -1.1 | 142,701 | 140,684 | 2,017 | [5] Basis and Trading Volume Data | Contract | 2025-09-05 Basis | 2025-09-04 Basis | Basis Change | 2025-09-05 Trading Volume | 2025-09-04 Trading Volume | Volume Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS (CTD) | -0.0605 | -0.0299 | -0.0306 | 32,921 | 31,545 | 1,376 | | TF (CTD) | -0.0455 | 0.0269 | -0.0724 | 75,029 | 62,934 | 12,095 | | T (CTD) | 0.3381 | 0.3866 | -0.0485 | 92,512 | 83,913 | 8,599 | | TL (CTD) | 0.6967 | 0.8792 | -0.1825 | 169,741 | 135,244 | 34,497 | [7] Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [3] - US ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since June [3] - The weighted winning bid yields for the 1-year and 30-year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.3485% and 2.1139% respectively, with full - scale multiples of 2.33 and 3.02, and marginal multiples of 1.61 and 4.46 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday are closely related to the US economy. The rare simultaneous increase of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil, along with a significant decline in US stocks, was due to factors such as rising long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, political crises, and trade geopolitical instability, which led to increased risk premiums and market risk - aversion. The subsequent fall in copper prices was a correction of the over - increase. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (CU2511C82000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2]. 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reaching an agreement on tariff policies; increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and a rising lower support level [4]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations; a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies; and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US adjustment of copper tariff policies [4][5]. 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper futures is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai copper continuous - one is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); Shanghai copper continuous - three is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; and LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%) [4]. 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,190 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan (- 0.41%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 80,125 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan (- 0.39%); Guangdong Nanchu is 80,000 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan (- 0.35%); and Yangtze Non - ferrous is 80,230 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (- 0.43%). The spot premiums of various regions also showed different degrees of decline [7]. 3.5 Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are also seen in the non - tax - included data [11]. 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory 3.6.1 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [13]. 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the registered warehouse receipts are 142,275 tons, down 2,775 tons (- 1.91%); and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 16,100 tons, up 2,575 tons (19.04%) [15]. 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory - The total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) on a weekly basis [16]. 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Domestic and Overseas Economy**: Domestically, pro - service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are being promoted, but their effects need further observation. Industrial profit repair takes time. Overseas, the US economy shows "soft landing" features, and employment data strengthens the market's Fed rate - cut expectation. Attention should be paid to non - farm employment and unemployment data. Also, the high prices of long - term bonds in the UK, Germany, and France may lead to speculation about a global credit "crisis" [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The core of the current RMB - US dollar exchange rate is the rhythm control. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. After a strong employment report followed by a weak QCEW correction notice, market dovish sentiment may increase. The non - farm data is crucial. The RMB - US dollar spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair to a reasonable equilibrium, with attention on market sentiment around 7.13 [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to adjust in the short term, with limited downside space [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock. It is not advisable to chase high, and previous long positions should stop profit [7]. - **Container Shipping**: The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and mainstream shipping companies' Golden Week blank - sailing plans. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [12]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips. Alumina is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell call options. Cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [14]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options or double - selling can be considered [16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are expected to be in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term. Trading strategies such as selling the outer market and buying the inner market or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are expected to be in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [21]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to be slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. It is recommended to observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state, and caution is needed in operation [26][27]. - **Commodities - Black Metals**: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure. However, there are expectations for peak - season demand, and the market may be in a short - term shock - adjustment state. Attention should be paid to actual peak - season demand and macro policies [29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are currently strong but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the lifting of the military - parade production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. There may be room for the coke price to fall in the short term. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure, but short - term over - supply is not serious. Attention should be paid to pre - National - Day replenishment and peak - season demand verification [33]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state. It is recommended to go long on the spread between the two when the spread is - 400 for the 01 contract [34][36]. - **Commodities - Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which will affect oil prices next week. Geopolitical risks are short - term interference factors. The oil market may face downward risks after the market sentiment subsides [38]. - LPG: LPG is expected to maintain a volatile state, affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand [40]. - PTA - PX: The PX - TA market is mainly affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end. It is recommended to shrink the PTA01 processing fee when it is above 350 [43]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to build long positions on dips or sell the 4,250 put option for the 10 - contract [47]. - Methanol: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [48]. - PP: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high growth [51]. - PE: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the driving force from demand is not strong. It is expected to be in a volatile state [53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak. Pure benzene is expected to be weak and volatile, and for styrene, it is not recommended to short - sell unilaterally. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider buying at a low price [55][56]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations, and the downward driving force remains [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news. Its valuation is low, and it is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost. In the medium - to - long - term, demand may improve with the arrival of the construction season, but there are still rainfall disturbances [61]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and hold positive spreads for RU9 - 1 [65]. - Urea: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,650 - 1,850. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with stable demand and high upstream and mid - stream inventories [68]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US ISM service PMI expands at the fastest pace in half a year, but employment is weak, and prices remain high. The trade deficit widens, and the Fed rate - cut expectation is strengthened [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB - US dollar exchange rate rises. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. Attention should be paid to non - farm data [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index falls with increased volume, and it is expected to adjust in the short term with limited downside space [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock [7]. Container Shipping - The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [8][10]. Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price falls slightly but may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is weak and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [13][14]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term [18][19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [19][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. Observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state [25][27]. Commodities - Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel mills resume production after the military parade. The market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure but also supported by peak - season demand expectations [28][29]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are strong, but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [30][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the coke supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure [31][33]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state [34]. Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase expectations and US crude oil inventory accumulation lead to a decline in oil prices. The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase affects future prices [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand, and is expected to maintain a volatile state [39][40]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - TA market is affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end [41][43]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol oscillates between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment [44][47]. - **Methanol**: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments [48]. - **PP**: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain, depending on downstream demand growth [50][51]. - **PE**: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand driving force is not strong [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news, with low valuation [59]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost, and demand may improve in the medium - to - long - term [60][61]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity [62][65]. - **Urea**: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [68].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with stable macro conditions, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further due to tight supply, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 272,020 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 13.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.5% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, recommend selling 75% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan and selling 25% of call options (SN2511C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, recommend buying 50% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan and selling 25% of put options (SN2511P260000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - **Domestic**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin main contract, Shanghai tin continuous - one, and Shanghai tin continuous - three are all stable, while the price of LME tin 3M is 34,425 US dollars per ton, down 195 US dollars or 0.56% [6] - **Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89, up 0.04 or 0.51% [6] - **Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and some solder products have increased slightly on a weekly basis, while some other products are stable [10] - **Imports and Processing Fees**: Tin import profit and loss is - 18,752.84 yuan per ton, down 7.34% daily, and tin ore processing fees are stable [10] 4. Tin Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,495 tons, up 1.19% daily, with different changes in Guangdong and Shanghai [13] - **LME Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,195 tons, up 0.92% [13]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant decline in US stocks, and a sharp increase in long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, led to an over - rise. The copper price fell after the opening on Wednesday. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the copper price may remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [3]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Liduo Factors**: The US reaching a tariff - policy agreement with other countries, an increase in interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rise in the lower support level [5][7]. - **Lidkong Factors**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff - policy adjustment [6][7]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, down 0.02 (- 0.25%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaomao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,190 yuan/ton, 80,125 yuan/ton, 80,000 yuan/ton, and 80,230 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums also decreased [9]. Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are seen in the non - tax - included data [13]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) [17][18]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak and volatile pattern of the container shipping market continues, and shipping companies are gradually announcing blank sailings for the Golden Week [2]. - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. The prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The EC2510 contract is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with purchased shipping space but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [2]. - For shipping companies with increased blank sailing efforts or approaching the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions - The futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 780 lots to 27,222 lots, the short positions decreased by 1300 lots to 30,668 lots, and the trading volume increased by 1140 lots to 29,546 lots (bilateral) [2]. - CMA CGM has continuously lowered the European line quotes for September, and the futures price weakened and fluctuated as expected following the decline of the spot cabin quotes on the European line. However, there are still uncertainties, including the uncertainty of US tariffs and the gradually announced blank sailing plans of major shipping companies for the Golden Week, which support the futures price from the supply side [2]. Bullish Interpretations - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These additional tariff measures can remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court [3]. - On September 1st local time, due to the expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [3]. Bearish Interpretations - MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, with the decline basically remaining the same [4]. - CMA CGM's spot cabin quotes on the European line in early September continued to decline [4]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 5, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 472.90 points, with a daily increase of 22.30 points and a weekly decrease of 232.30 points; the basis of EC2512 was 97.60 points, with a daily increase of 25.20 points and a weekly decrease of 321.60 points; and so on for other contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1300.7 points, with a daily decline of 1.69% and a weekly increase of 1.22%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1676.0 points, with a daily decline of 1.48% and a weekly increase of 6.68%; and so on for other contracts. Also shows the price differences between different contracts [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 15, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1092, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1827, an increase of $11. On September 18, the total quote for 20GP was $1040, an increase of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1740, an increase of $10 [7]. - For CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the next two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1210, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020, a decrease of $200 [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, a decrease of 216.6 points or 10.88% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.9 points, a decrease of 27.48 points or 2.64% [7]. - The SCFI for the European route was $1481 per TEU, a decrease of $187 or 11.21%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923 per FEU, an increase of $279 or 16.97% [7]. - The XSI for the European line was $2421 per FEU, a decrease of $31 or 1.26%; the XSI for the US - West line was $2034 per FEU, an increase of $96 or 5.0% [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, an increase of $16 or 0.81% [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 4, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.360 days, a decrease of 0.098 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.420 days, a decrease of 0.378 days; and so on for other ports [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 4, 2025, the average speed of container ships over 8000 TEU was 15.769 knots, a decrease of 0.055 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of container ships over 3000 TEU was 14.765 knots, an increase of 0.013 knots; the average speed of container ships over 1000 TEU was 13.323 knots, an increase of 0.183 knots [22]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, the same as the previous day [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term, London gold and silver weekly lines continue to close with large bullish candles, indicating a strong pattern. London gold has broken through the 3450 - 3500 resistance and can be further expected to reach 3700. London silver has broken through the 39.5 - 40 integer - level resistance, and the next target is raised to the 44 - 45 area. Short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of economic data fluctuations on precious metal prices. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips, and existing long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market fluctuated and adjusted. The US dollar index slightly declined, the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased, European and American stocks generally rebounded, Bitcoin dropped, and crude oil was weak. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3602.4 per ounce, down 0.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.315 per ounce, down 1.77%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 812.98 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9773 yuan per kilogram, down 0.14% [2]. - The US ADP employment data and weekly initial jobless claims released on Thursday evening provided evidence for cooling the US job market and boosted the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak corporate employment and high prices [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of interest - rate cuts within the year continues to rise. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in September is 0.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 99.4%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 44.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.3%. In December, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 48.4% [2]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.3 tons to 982 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.8 tons to 15230.6 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 32.9 tons to 1259.9 tons per day; as of the week ending August 29, the SGX silver inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 1283.6 tons per week [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus This week's data is intensive, and the focus is on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday [3]. 3.4 Price Table - The latest price of SHFE gold main continuous contract is 812.98 yuan per gram, down 1.9 yuan, or 0.23%. The latest price of SGX gold TD is 809 yuan per gram, down 0.97 yuan, or 0.12%. The latest price of CME gold main contract is $3602.4 per ounce, down $17.3, or 0.48%. The latest price of SHFE silver main continuous contract is 9773 yuan per kilogram, down 47 yuan, or 0.48%. The latest price of SGX silver TD is 9770 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan, or 0.1%. The latest price of CME silver main contract is $41.315 per ounce, down $0.495, or 1.18%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 87.1935, up 0.6185, or 0.71% [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The SHFE gold inventory is 43254 kilograms, up 3003 kilograms, or 7.46%. The CME gold inventory is 1211.7239 tons, unchanged. The SHFE gold position is 136664 lots, down 5666 lots, or 3.98%. The SPDR gold position is 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons, or 0.23%. The SHFE silver inventory is 1259.949 tons, up 32.91 tons, or 2.68%. The CME silver inventory is 16093.3703 tons, up 41.8578 tons, or 0.26%. The SGX silver inventory is 1283.61 tons, up 1.755 tons, or 0.14%. The SHFE silver position is 248568 lots, down 22024 lots, or 8.14%. The SLV silver position is 15230.565366 tons, down 50.8324 tons, or 0.33% [13]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 98.2917, up 0.1316, or 0.13%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1419, up 0.0022, or 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 45621.29 points, up 350.06 points, or 0.77%. The WTI crude oil spot price is $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49, or 0.77%. The LmeS copper 03 price is $9891.5 per ton, down $82.5, or 0.83%. The 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.17%, down 0.05%, or 1.18%. The 10Y US real interest rate is 1.79%, down 0.03%, or 1.65%. The 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, down 0.03%, or 4.92% [17].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The end of the low - electricity - price period in Southwest China during the wet season will slow down and potentially decrease the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also slower than expected. Overall, the future operating rate of industrial silicon may peak, reducing the risk of inventory accumulation and supply - side pressure [4]. - Demand - The demand from the organic silicon industry is limited, while the demand from the recycled aluminum alloy remains stable. The demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months as enterprise profits improve and production schedules are raised. If supply decreases and polysilicon demand increases, the oversupply situation may ease, and the industry may reach a price bottom - reversal point [4]. - Factors Affecting Price - Positive factors include the "anti - involution" policy boosting market sentiment, limited downward space for costs, and strong demand. Negative factors include potential weakening of demand due to industrial integration or production cuts in the polysilicon industry [7][8]. Polysilicon - Supply - The production schedule of polysilicon enterprises in September is expected to increase, exacerbating the supply - side surplus. The increasing number of daily warehouse receipts also pressures the futures market [10]. - Demand - The production pace of silicon wafers and battery cells continues to slow. Terminal demand lags, and high inventory restricts the demand for polysilicon [10]. - Long - term Outlook - If major enterprises reach effective integration agreements, the current "over - capacity and price involution" situation may improve, fundamentally repairing the supply - demand pattern [10]. 3. Section Summaries Industrial Silicon - **Risk Management Strategy** - Price Forecast - The strong support level of the industrial silicon main contract is 8200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 77.6% [2]. - Procurement Management - For products with no price correlation, 60% of the corresponding futures contracts can be bought at 7900 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 40% of put options (SI2511 - P - 8200) can be sold. For products with price correlation, 20% of the main futures contracts can be sold according to the procurement progress, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be bought according to the procurement cost [2]. - Sales Management - 20% of the corresponding futures contracts can be sold according to the production plan, and 40% of put - call option combinations can be bought according to the sales profit [2]. - Inventory Management - 10% - 20% of the main futures contracts can be sold at 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and 20% - 40% of call options (SI2511 - C - 9200) can be sold [2]. - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8515 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. The trading volume is 371805 lots, with a weekly increase of 9.69%. The open interest is 277305 lots, with a weekly decrease of 5.17% [12]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50072 lots, with a weekly decrease of 1.15% [13]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of 99 and 553 industrial silicon in different regions are mostly stable, while the prices of 421 in some regions have decreased by about 100 yuan/ton in a week [18]. - The price of trichlorosilane is 3375 yuan/kg, the N - type polysilicon price index is 51.13 yuan/kg, the price of DMC is 10650 yuan/ton, and the price of alloy ADC12 is 20750 yuan/ton [18][20]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 50072 lots, a decrease of 276 lots from the previous period [35]. - The basis of the main contract of 553 and 421 industrial silicon in different regions shows seasonal characteristics [29][30][31]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 52195 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.09%. The trading volume is 268080 lots, with a weekly decrease of 28.76%. The open interest is 145950 lots, with a weekly increase of 1.42% [36]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 6870 lots, with a weekly decrease of 0.15% [36]. - **Spot Data** - The prices of N - type polysilicon products such as N - type re - feedstock, N - type dense material, etc., have increased by about 2 - 2.5 yuan/kg in a week. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in the photovoltaic industry have also changed slightly [41]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is - 1065 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 16.39% [53]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 6870 lots, unchanged from the previous day [53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term LPG prices are mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwined to influence the market, while the fundamentals remain largely unchanged [4] - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have increased the risk premium of crude oil [5] - Crude oil is under downward pressure in the future due to increasing supply and decreasing demand; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting; US oil inventory data is bearish [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 11.58%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.52% [3] 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short PG2510 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to prevent inventory depreciation and lock in profits; also, sell PG2510C4500 call options with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 40 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [3] Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase based on orders, for short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy PG2510 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 4200 - 4300 to prevent price increases and lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG2510P4200 put options with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 20 - 30 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [3] 3.3 Industry Data Summary - **Price Data**: On September 4, 2025, Brent was at 66.88 (down 0.51 from the previous day and 0.77 from the previous week), WTI at 63.34 (down 0.43 and 0.98 respectively), and LPG's main contract closed at 4368 (down 48 and 41 respectively) [8][10] - **Spread Data**: For example, the LPG - FEI spread was 478.56 (down 36.11 from the previous day and 121.37 from the previous week), and the LPG - CP spread was 112.77 (down 68.13 and 259.39 respectively) [10] - **Month - spread Data**: The LPG08 - 09 month - spread was 392 (down 38 from the previous day and up 60 from the previous week), and the LPG09 - 10 month - spread was - 641 (up 55 and down 41 respectively) [10] - **Ratio Data**: The MB/WTI ratio was 0.48 (up 0.03 from the previous day and down 0.01 from the previous week), and the FEI/Brent ratio was 0.66 (unchanged from the previous day and up 0.03 from the previous week) [10] - **Profit Data**: The LPG's盘面 import profit - FEI was - 336.84 (down 44.37 from the previous day and 40.29 from the previous week), and the PDH盘面 profit - PG was 195.8 (up 40.2 and down 33.85 respectively) [10] - **Freight Data**: The freight from the Middle East to the Far East was 74.667 (down 3.833 from the previous day and 9.166 from the previous week), from the US to Europe was 76.5 (down 0.625 and 4.5 respectively), and from the US Gulf to the Far East was 139 (down 1.333 and 9.417 respectively) [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are temporary differences in far - month pricing without a clear direction [2] - For glass, the mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, the phased restocking ability is weak, and the market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. For纯碱, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.2%. For纯碱, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 26.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.3% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures at 1450 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are differences in far - month pricing direction [2] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - **利多**: Cost has an upward expectation affecting far - month pricing, and policy expectations cannot be completely excluded [2] - **利空**: The mid - upstream inventory of glass and 纯碱 is high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable [2] Glass Fundamentals - The mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The daily melting volume on the supply side is stable at around 15.9 - 16 tons with a slight upward expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August decreased by 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] 纯碱 Fundamentals - The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. The normal maintenance continues, and the commissioning of Yuanxing Phase II is a focus this year. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the spot price is expected to rise further. The overall rigid demand for 纯碱 is stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [3] Price and Spread Data Glass - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1236, the 09 contract price was 950, and the 01 contract price was 1139. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 286, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 189, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 97 [4] 纯碱 - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1357, the 09 contract price was 1160, and the 01 contract price was 1277. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 197, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 117, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 80 [6] Spot Price Data Glass - On September 4, 2025, the average price of沙河 glass was 1124, and prices in various regions were mostly stable [5] 纯碱 - On September 4, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in different regions were mostly stable, with the price in沙河 rising from 1176 to 1192 [8]