Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down in a volatile manner. The escalation of Sino-US trade tariff disputes weakened the export prospects of US soybeans, leading to a decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns over tariffs boosted the price of Brazilian soybeans, pushing up the cost of domestic soybean imports. There are also concerns that the export volume of new-season US soybeans in 2025/26 may decline, and the domestic import volume after September may decrease. Coupled with the impact of poor planting profits, the planting area of US soybeans in 2025/26 may decline, providing support for the price of distant-month soybean meal [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. It is expected that the inventory in Southeast Asian producing areas will reach an inflection point. According to SGS data, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 31, 2025, is expected to increase by 6.3%. According to SPPOMA data, the production of Malaysian palm oil from March 1 - 31, 2025, increased by 12.44% month-on-month. With the recovery of production in the producing areas, the inventory is expected to rise. Reuters predicts that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in March 2025 will be 1.56 million tons, a 3% increase from February; the production is expected to be 1.31 million tons, a 10.3% increase from February; the export volume is expected to be 1.02 million tons, a 2% increase from February. The fundamental outlook is bearish, but the sharp rise in overnight oil prices will provide some support for the oil sector [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 7,576, 8,588, 9,205, 3,119, 2,631, and 8,844 respectively. The price changes were -52, -170, -143, -45, -84, and 26, with percentage changes of -0.68%, -1.94%, -3.15%, -1.42%, -3.09%, and 0.29% respectively [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread is currently 68, down from the previous 80; the M9 - 1 spread is currently 26, down from the previous 37 [1] International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4,701 ringgit/ton, 1,013 cents/bushel, 46 cents/pound, and 294 dollars/ton respectively. The price changes were -27, 20, 1, and 4, with percentage changes of -0.59%, 2.02%, 2.62%, and 1.38% respectively [1] Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, with different percentage changes. For example, the current price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 7,900, with a percentage change of -0.63% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads of various varieties have also changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 324 [1] Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -1,130, down from the previous -999 [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 735, 500, 1,811, 9,350, 0, and 1,500 respectively, with no change in soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and peanuts compared to the previous values, while the warehouse receipts of soybean meal increased from 8,900 [1] Industry Information - Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export costs to offset the impact of the 32% "reciprocal" tariff imposed by the US on Indonesian exports. The small - scale palm oil farmers' organization SPKS proposed to reduce export tariffs and special export taxes to 0% to help stabilize the price of palm fruits [2] - The EU will impose a 25% tariff on corn starting from April 15 in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs. US soybeans will be subject to tariffs starting from December 1 [2] - According to the expected value of a foreign media survey, as of the week ending April 3, the expected net sales of US soybeans for the 2024/25 market year are between 200,000 - 700,000 tons, and the expected net sales for the 2025/26 market year are 0 - 50,000 tons [2]

| | 1、央行公告称，4月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1189亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.50%，投标量1189 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1189亿元。Wind数据显示，当日2299亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼1110亿元。 | | | 2、中央周边工作会议4月8日至9日在北京举行。国家主席习近平在重要讲话中系统总结新时代以来我国周边工作的成 | | | 就和经验，科学分析形势，明确了今后一个时期周边工作的目标任务和思路举措，强调要聚焦构建周边命运共同体， | | | 努力开创周边工作新局面。会议强调，构建周边命运共同体，要与周边国家巩固战略互信，支持地区国家走稳自身发 | | | 展道路，妥善管控矛盾分歧；深化发展融合，构建高水平互联互通网络，加强产业链供应链合作；共同维护地区稳 定，开展安全和执法合作，应对各类风险挑战；扩大交往交流，便利人员往来。 | | | 3、国务院总理李强主持召开经济形势专家和企业家座谈会。李强强调，要实施好更加积极有为的宏观政策，靠前发力 | | | 推动既定政策尽快落地见效，根据形势需要及时推出新的增量政策。要把扩大内需作为长期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Although the terminal demand shows signs of stabilization and the steel mills' profits are recovering, factors such as tariff disturbances and the uncertainty of demand continuation need to be considered [3]. - The iron ore market is also expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. Despite the support from iron ore demand due to the potential increase in blast furnace restarts, the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has the potential for upward valuation repair supported by the recovery of downstream demand, and attention should be paid to the digestion of upstream inventories [3]. - The ferroalloy market may see stronger support below driven by the recovery of demand, and attention should be paid to the peak season performance of terminal steel demand and the digestion of market inventories [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: Most futures contracts showed price changes. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased by 1 yuan (-0.1%), the coke 05 contract decreased by 4 yuan (-0.2%), the coking coal 01 contract decreased by 13 yuan (-1.2%), and the coking coal 05 contract decreased by 9 yuan (-1.0%). Among steel products, the rebar 01 contract decreased by 28 yuan (-0.9%), and the hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased by 6 yuan (0.2%) [2]. - **Ratio and Spread Changes**: Some ratios and spreads changed. For instance, the coke inter - period (1 - 5 spread) increased from 104 to 107, and the coal - coke ratio (01 contract) increased from 1.52 to 1.54 [2]. Spot Market - **Price Changes**: In the coke spot market, prices remained stable. In the coking coal spot market, some prices remained unchanged, while the import Mongolian 3 (clean coal) at Shaheyi decreased from 1138 to 1132. In the steel product spot market, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices showed slight decreases in some regions [2]. Profit - **Profit Changes**: The coke simulation profit decreased from 26 to - 399, the steel mill profit on the disk decreased slightly from - 50 to - 53, and the steel product simulation profit increased from 263 to 272 [3]. Macro News - The State Council Tariff Commission increased the additional tariff rate on all imported goods originating from the United States from 34% to 84 starting from 12:01 on April 10, and US President Trump authorized a 90 - day tariff suspension for countries that do not take retaliatory actions [3]. Industry Information - As of April 8, the capital availability rate of sample construction sites was 58.5%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55 percentage points. The capital availability rate of non - housing construction projects was 60.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38 percentage points [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Possibly weak in the short term [1] - Zinc: Possibly weak in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Possibly fluctuate in the short term [1] - Nickel: Possibly fluctuate in the short term [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the short - term trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel prices. Factors such as US tariff policies, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes affect these metal prices. Copper and zinc may be weak due to US tariff concerns and supply - related factors, while aluminum and nickel may fluctuate because of factors like supply - demand balance and cost uncertainties [1] Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices resumed their decline due to US tariff concerns. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable, with power investment driven by the grid, growing home appliance production, and potential growth in automotive copper demand. However, export changes need attention. Copper prices may be weak in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, inventory, and basis should be monitored [1] Zinc - Night - time zinc prices fell due to US tariffs. Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic demand in sectors like automotive, infrastructure, and home appliances is positive, and the decline in real - estate data has narrowed. The market expects an improvement in concentrate supply in 2025, and the previous price drop has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may be weak in the short term, and factors such as US tariff progress, exchange rates, and smelting output should be watched [1] Aluminum - Night - time Shanghai aluminum prices dropped 1.11%. After alumina reached a low level, the profit on the futures market was low, and bottom - fishing sentiment led to a small rebound. However, supply is still sufficient, limiting the upside. Downstream demand continued to recover in April, with increased orders and operating rates in sectors like profiles and alloys. Considering global risk - aversion and the ongoing destocking of electrolytic aluminum, aluminum prices may fluctuate in the short term [1] Nickel - Night - time Shanghai nickel prices dropped 0.37%. Nickel ore supply is uncertain, and the discount of pure nickel to nickel sulfate has widened, limiting the downside of nickel prices. The PNBP policy in Indonesia may increase nickel ore prices. Precursor manufacturers have concentrated procurement needs, and nickel salt inventory is low, which may drive up prices. Stainless - steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly in consolidation. Nickel prices may fluctuate in the short term [1] Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 73,490 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 8,588 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 34.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 213,450 tons, and the daily change was 3,225 tons [2] - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 19,720 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 40 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,338 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 42.67 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 452,525 tons, and the daily change was - 2,175 tons [2] - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,360 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 185 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,553 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 12.15 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 125,825 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 119,280 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 2,630 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 14,150 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 211.53 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 202,938 tons, and the daily change was 630 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,545 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,870 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 29.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 235,725 tons, and the daily change was - 125 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 266,430 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 590 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 32,175 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,435 tons, and the daily change was 445 tons [2]

申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250409 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 交易咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | 原油 | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 478.6 | 478.7 | 60.96 | 60.68 | 61.62 | 61.20 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 510.1 | 507.0 | 62.32 | 62.00 | 64.36 | 63.98 | | | 涨跌 | -31.5 | -28.3 | -1.36 | -1.32 | -2.74 | -2.78 | | | 涨跌幅 | -6.18% | -5.58% | -2.18% | -2.13% | -4.26% | -4.35% | | | 成交量 | 246,401 | 91,448 | 563,563 | 385,336 | 881,698 | 54 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping European route is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] Core View of the Report - The EC in the container shipping European route weakened during intraday trading. The 06 contract closed at 1767 points, down 8.32%, hitting a new low since March. The 08 contract fell 12.38%, and the closing price was basically the same as the 06 contract. The expectation difference for the peak season continued to narrow, and it was doubtful whether the seasonal peak season from May to August could be realized. The current freight rates of shipping companies have not changed much. In the first half of April, most shipping companies continued the quotes at the end of March, and there was a small increase in the second half. The freight rates in April tended to stabilize, and the average price of a 40 - foot container in the 16th week was about $2300. Some shipping companies have announced their online quotes for May, with the quotes for 40 - foot containers ranging from $2337 to $4545. The average weekly capacity put into operation by shipping companies in May exceeded 300,000 TEU, and the increase efforts of each shipping company varied. Under the influence of the uncertainty of high - tariffs, shipping companies may start a price - cut game to preserve more profits instead of betting on the peak - season demand. It is expected that the EC will continue its weak pattern in the short term [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Contract Volume and Price - The latest transaction price of EC2504 was 1500.9 points, down 1.20%, with a trading volume of 772 and a unilateral open interest of 1736. The net long position of the top 20 members was - 138 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2506 was 1767 points, down 8.32%, with a trading volume of 74206 and a unilateral open interest of 32760. The net long position of the top 20 members was 712 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2508 was 1768 points, down 12.38%, with a trading volume of 36214 and a unilateral open interest of 28249. The net long position of the top 20 members was 0 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2510 was 1270.1 points, down 9.40%, with a trading volume of 14176 and a unilateral open interest of 15731 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2512 was 1459.7 points, down 9.91%, with a trading volume of 3296 and a unilateral open interest of 3132 [1] - The latest transaction price of EC2602 was 1286 points, down 11.60%, with a trading volume of 2658 and a unilateral open interest of 2458 [1] - The total trading volume was 131322, and the total unilateral open interest was 84066. The net long position of the top 20 members was 574 [1] Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - The latest SCFIS index was 1422.42 points, down 3.5% week - on - week [1] - The latest SCFI was $1336 per TEU, up 1.4% week - on - week [1] - The latest TCI (20GP) was $1660 per TEU, with no change [1] - The latest TCI (40GP) was $2737 per TEU, with no change [1] - The basis difference on the previous trading day was - 462.58 points, and the basis difference on the day was - 344.58 points, a change of 118 points [1] Spot Market Data - The capacity put into operation on the Asia - Europe route was 488775 TEU, with no change. The idle capacity ratios of global container ships, container ships over 17000 TEU, 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships, and 8000 - 11999 TEU container ships were 2.4%, 3.2%, 0.6%, and 2.7% respectively [4] - The average speed of container ships was 13.95 knots. The speed of container ships over 17000 TEU was 15.7 knots, and the speed of 12000 - 16999 TEU container ships was 15.3 knots [4] - The in - port capacity in Rotterdam was 229100 TEU, in Hamburg was 98200 TEU, and in Singapore was 335300 TEU [4] - The number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden was 8, the north - bound traffic volume of the Suez Canal was 2, and the south - bound traffic volume was 1 [4] - The 6 - 12 - month time - charter rates for 9000 TEU, 6500 TEU, and 2500 TEU container ships were $106000, $73500, and $33750 per day respectively [4]

报告日期：2025 年 4 月 9 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：市场分化，原油领跌 美国总统特朗普签署煤炭相关的四个行政令。特朗普助手表示，首个行政命令将 指示所有机构结束对煤炭行业的所有歧视性政策。第二项命令将指示暂停关闭燃 煤电厂。第三项命令则有关电网可靠性。第四项命令涉及（对抗）那些反对煤炭 政策的民主党州。从央行、金融监管总局、国资委等多部门密集部署，到中央汇 金公司积极发挥类"平准基金"作用，再到全国社保基金理事会、国有资本运营 公司、央国企集团、保险机构、上市公司"真金白银"实施增持、回购，4 月 7 日以来的稳市"组合拳"快速出手、协调发力，向市场传递了"稳住股市"的强 烈信号。国内商品期货夜盘，原油合约收跌 2.93%报 467.6 元/桶。沪金收涨 0.58% 报 719.94 元/克，沪银收涨 0.39%报 7704 元/千克。 重点品种：原油、贵金属、股指 原油：原油夜盘下跌 2.93%。特朗普威胁称如果中国不取消 34%的报复性关税， 将对中国商品额外加征 50%的关税。中国商务部表示，中国 "将奉陪到底"。特 朗普的关税政策加剧了人们对全球经济衰退的担忧。美国石油学会数据显示， ...

报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及国家/地区政策、国内外宏观环境和产业链影 响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 申万期货品种策略日报-黑色20250409 分析师：冉宇蒙 从业资格号：F3085160 投资咨询号：Z0016375 | | | | | 电话：021-50586040 邮箱：ranym@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 焦炭01合约 | 焦炭05合约 | 焦煤01合约 | 焦煤05合约 | 动力煤01合约 | 动力煤05合约 | | | 前日收盘价 | 1631 | 1527 | 1071 | 926 | 801 | 801 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1665 | 1594 | 1099 | 977 | 801 | 801 | | | 涨跌 | -34 | -67 | -28 | -51 | 0 | 0 | | | 涨跌幅% | -2.0% | -4.2% | -2.5% | -5.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/4/9 | 星期三 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3480.80 | 3468.80 | 3452.60 | 3410.80 | 前日收盘价 | 3598.60 | 3574.60 | 3543.80 | 3495.80 | | | 涨跌 | 112.60 | 95.80 | 89.60 | 85.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 3.23 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/4/9 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；投资咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7628 | 8758 | 9348 | 3164 | 2715 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -22 | 18 | 99 | 108 | 117 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.29% | 0.21% | -3.15% | 3.53% | 4.50% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...