1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with "√" indicating a bullish bias and "V" (assuming it's a typo and should be "√") indicating a bullish bias as well: - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Treasury bonds (TS), Rubber, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Lithium carbonate, Cotton, Corn [5] - Bearish: Crude oil, Methanol, Apple, Container shipping to Europe [5] 2. Report's Core View - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic development and stabilize the market [1][7][11] - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated, and the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut may boost market risk appetite [3][10] - Different futures varieties show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025 [6] - **Domestic News**: The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10 - 11 pointed out the overall requirements and policy orientation for next year's economic work, including continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks [7] - **Industry News**: In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles both approached 15 million, with exports of new energy vehicles doubling year - on - year [7] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas futures on December 10 - 11, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,901.00 points, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.55% to $61.55 per barrel [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the previous trading day's decline, with the improvement of the system, the expansion of funds, and the empowerment of industries, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market may be consolidated. The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December and the positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [3][10] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.831%. The market liquidity is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut and the expected introduction of domestic policies support the short - term Treasury bond futures [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session fell 1.27%. The IEA raised the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to factors such as weak European demand [13] - **Methanol**: Methanol's night - session fell 1.83%. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant operating rate decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory decreased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply elasticity is weakening. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the previous price decline was affected by the weakening of crude oil and the overall commodity market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the price continued to be weak [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to be weak, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to the potential changes in industrial production and the recovery of the real estate industry chain [17] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion are expected to boost market liquidity and support the long - term upward trend of precious metals [18] - **Copper**: The night - session copper price rose more than 2% due to the Fed's unexpected action. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Zinc**: The night - session zinc price rose nearly 3% due to the Fed's action. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and related factors [20] - **Aluminum**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum rose 0.82%. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the aluminum price. In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and the demand is okay in the off - season. The upward momentum is weakening in the short term, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to decline. The short - term supply disturbance is the focus. It is recommended to take a bullish view after a callback [22][23] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak. The steel mill's production reduction expectation and the increase in Mongolian coal imports put pressure on the price, but the strong policy expectation in December may provide upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price declined. The shipping volume increased slightly, and the port inventory increased slightly. The steel mill's demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [25] - **Steel Products**: The steel price volatility increased. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The steel price has short - term rebound momentum but is expected to be weak in the medium term [26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night - session soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year, and the US soybean export is slow. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session soybean and palm oil futures were weak, and rapeseed oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive news [28] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly and are expected to be weak in the short term. The international raw sugar price is affected by Brazil and India, and the domestic supply is increasing, but the cost provides some support [29] - **Cotton**: The overnight cotton price was weak but still above the upper limit of the range. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to factors such as fast sales progress, potential reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 2.04%. The shipping companies' price - holding intention is strong in December and early January. The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline due to supply surplus and potential red - sea route resumption [31]

2025年12月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 涨跌 | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.060 | 0.065 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 0.400 | 0.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. On the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, while those from PetroChina remained stable. For drawn PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina were stable. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached a high, and demand is gradually being released. Previously, the market was driven by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, causing the valuation of polyolefins to decline. Although the international crude oil price rebounded briefly after the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, it continued to weaken at the close, dragging down domestic chemical products, and the polyolefin market generally remained weak [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6534, 6558, and 6600 respectively, with price drops of -27, -41, and -35 and declines of -0.41%, -0.62%, and -0.53%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6177, 6241, and 6280 respectively, with price changes of 15, -2, and -3 and changes of 0.24%, -0.03%, and -0.05% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL's January, May, and September contracts were 231491, 295211, and 3959, and the open interests were 227085, 451436, and 7497, with open interest changes of -39927, 41542, and 1127. For PP, the trading volumes of January, May, and September contracts were 257560, 176198, and 3665, and the open interests were 351293, 400615, and 19776, with open interest changes of -28910, 26024, and 706 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -24, -42, and 66, compared to previous values of -38, -36, and 74. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -39, and 103, compared to previous values of -81, -40, and 121 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2077 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2059 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 596 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6030 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 6900, 6550 - 6800, and 6600 - 7000 respectively. The previous price ranges were 6600 - 6900, 6550 - 6850 (8100 - 8250), and 6650 - 7050. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6000 - 6200, and 6150 - 6350, and the previous price ranges were 6150 - 6350, 6100 - 6250, and 6200 - 6400 [2] News - On Thursday (December 11), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.60 per barrel, down $0.86 from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.47%, with a trading range of $57.01 - 58.94. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.28 per barrel, down $0.93 from the previous trading day, a decline of 1.49%, with a trading range of $60.77 - 62.63 [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.444 | 105.785 | 105.790 | 107.980 | 108.000 | 112.59 | 112.75 | | | 涨跌 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.045 | 0.200 | 0.190 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading at low levels. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. The previous downward trend in polyolefin valuations was influenced by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. However, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25bp, international crude oil prices stopped falling and rebounded, which will support domestic polyolefin prices, and the market may gradually stop falling and rebound to repair valuations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6561, 6599, and 6635 respectively, with price changes of 4, -11, and -21, and percentage changes of 0.06%, -0.17%, and -0.32%. The trading volumes were 289654, 280955, and 2747, and the open interests were 267012, 409894, and 6370, with changes of -72250, 50119, and 625 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6162, 6243, and 6283 respectively, with price changes of -30, -37, and -39, and percentage changes of -0.48%, -0.59%, and -0.62%. The trading volumes were 272617, 203963, and 3106, and the open interests were 380203, 374591, and 19070, with changes of -30955, 33415, and 432 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -38, -36, and 74 respectively (previous values were -53, -46, and 99). For PP, the spreads were -81, -40, and 121 respectively (previous values were -88, -42, and 130) [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film are 2057 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 596 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6030 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6700 - 7100, 6550 - 6850, and 6650 - 7050 respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6150 - 6350, 6100 - 6250, and 6200 - 6400 respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (December 10), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.46 per barrel, up $0.21 or 0.36% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.66 - $59.05. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.21 per barrel, up $0.27 or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.35 - $62.73 [2]

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/11 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8230 | 8706 | 9502 | 2778 | 2395 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -36 | -64 | -116 | -43 | -2 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.44% | -0.73% | -3.15% | -1.52% | -0.08% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in the mining sector have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 91,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 11,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.19 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,000 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,735 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 100 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,846 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.14 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 525,800 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 23,025 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 166.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 57,750 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,375 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 116,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,430 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 192.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,344 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 228 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,115 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,977 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 51.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,825 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 312,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 930 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 39,850 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 46.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,075 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 10 tons [2].

| | 1、央行公告称，12月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1173亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1173 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1173亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1563亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼390亿元。 | | | 2、国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强强调，今年中国经济顶压前行，取得新的发 | | | 展成绩，我们有信心有能力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。中国经济将保持稳健向好势头，经济总量将再上新台 | | | 阶，产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。 | | | 3、财政部副部长廖岷就"1+10"对话会有关情况答记者问：与会国际经济组织的负责人一致认为，面对挑战，国际社 会必须展现出超越分歧的团结与智慧，采取协同一致的行动，持续为世界经济注入确定性与新动力。加强国际宏观经 | | | 济政策协调。主要经济体应关注宏观政策的外溢影响，共同应对通胀、债务与汇率波动风险。积极化解和减少贸易政 | | | 策的不确定性，有效应对贸易壁垒上升和贸易碎片化。进一步完善各国国内政策。更加注重财政 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot side, for linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable while PetroChina lowered some prices by 150 yuan. For拉丝PP, Sinopec maintained stability and PetroChina cut some prices by 30 yuan. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, with demand steadily releasing. However, market sentiment was still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the self - valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the current rebound, it generally remains in a low - level oscillation process [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of LL for January, May, and September were 6557, 6610, and 6656 respectively, with price drops of 86, 98, and 98 from two days ago, and percentage drops of - 1.29%, - 1.46%, and - 1.45%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September were 6192, 6280, and 6322, with price drops of 83, 90, and 87 from two days ago, and percentage drops of - 1.32%, - 1.41%, and - 1.36% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 228488, 193612, and 2327 respectively, and the open interests were 339262, 359775, and 5745, with open interest changes of - 34931, 43792, and 656. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September were 245848, 139975, and 3064, and the open interests were 411158, 341176, and 18638, with open interest changes of - 11906, 22036, and 718 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 53, - 46, and 99 respectively, compared with previous values of - 65, - 46, and 111. For PP, the current spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 88, - 42, and 130, compared with previous values of - 95, - 39, and 134 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2070 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2094 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6700 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6850 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6750 - 7150 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7100 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, and 6200 - 6400 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous ranges of 6200 - 6350 yuan/ton, 6100 - 6250 yuan/ton, and 6200 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (December 9), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.25 per barrel, down $0.63 or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.12 - $59.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.94 per barrel, down $0.55 or 0.88% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.83 - $62.78 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause later. The market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, but Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for rate cuts [1]. - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the rhythm of the A - share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the policies are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's rate cuts, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - For various futures varieties, different trends and influencing factors are analyzed, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided, such as the long - term upward trend of precious metals and the short - term weakening trend of some energy and chemical products [12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Treasury Bonds**: Generally rising, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.83%. Market liquidity is stable, but there are concerns about global liquidity tightening. The long - term Treasury bond futures price remains weak due to factors such as the suspension of 5 - year fixed deposits in banks and the new fund sales regulations [2][10]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and rapeseed oils were weak at night, while palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil exports slowed down, and production decreased. The expected inventory build - up in November may limit the upside of palm oil. The arrival of imported Australian rapeseed may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3][28]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. The supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to supply disruptions [3][18]. 3.2 Daily News Focus 3.2.1 International News - Chinese and US officials met to promote Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. China welcomes more US companies to invest in China, and the US side is willing to play a bridging role [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite 47 and the Satellite Internet Low - Earth Orbit Group 15 satellites on December 9 [6]. 3.2.3 Industry News - Multiple provinces have released the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, proposing to accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model and improve the housing supply system [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market was mixed. Before the policies of the two important meetings are determined, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The situation is similar to the key varieties section, with long - term bond futures remaining weak [10][11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil fell 1.31% at night. The European conflict and the US oil production forecast are the main influencing factors, and the downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.45% at night. The start - up rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply is entering the off - season. The demand for all - steel tires is stable. The price is expected to be volatile in a wide range [14]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity market. It is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Their inventories decreased, and the market is cautious. The focus of trading is shifting to the May contract [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver reached a new high, and gold fluctuated slightly. Weak employment data strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in December. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged [17]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, the price closed lower at night, with tight concentrate supply and a potential supply - demand deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower. The concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fell 0.7% at night. Due to the approaching Fed meeting and uncertainty about future rate - cut paths, the price corrected. In the long term, it is supported by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand situation is complex. In the short term, the supply is affected by production resumption, and the price is risky to chase up. In the long term, it can be considered from a bullish perspective after a correction [21][22]. 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session trading was volatile. Steel mill profits are low, and iron - water production may decrease, which is negative for the demand for coking coal and coke. However, strong policy expectations in December may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price slightly declined. Shipping increased slightly, and port inventories increased slightly. Steel mills' profitability is low, and they will continue to purchase on demand. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but macro - expectations are positive, so there is some short - term upward momentum, but the medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, putting pressure on prices [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key varieties section, soybean and rapeseed oils were weak, and palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil inventory build - up and the arrival of Australian rapeseed are the main influencing factors [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were volatile and are expected to be weak in the short term. International and domestic factors such as Brazilian sugar production and Chinese sugar supply affect the price [29]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures were volatile and are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but there is also hedging pressure [30]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 1.17%. The demand in mid - December is okay, and the price is expected to be volatile. The 04 contract may decline due to supply - surplus and potential resumption of Red Sea shipping [31].