Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core View - On September 24, treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract down 0.24% and a decrease in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates generally rose, and key - term treasury bond yields showed mixed trends. The long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp. Overseas, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp. The central bank's monetary policy showed a moderately loose orientation, with a net MLF injection of 3000 billion yuan in September. With the Fed entering the interest - rate cut cycle, the central bank's policy space has increased, but the next policy adjustment needs central unified deployment. It is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [2][3] Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On September 24, prices of various treasury bond futures contracts generally fell, such as the TS2512 contract down 0.05%, the TF2512 contract down 0.14%, and the T2512 contract down 0.24%. Open interest of most contracts decreased, except for some with an increase. Trading volume varied among contracts [2] - **IRR and Arbitrage**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - Rates of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR7 days, DR001, DR007, GC001, GC007, FR001, and FR007 generally rose on September 24. For example, SHIBOR7 days rose 12.8bp, DR007 rose 18.48bp, and GC007 rose 14.2bp [2] Spot Market - Chinese Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: Yields of key - term treasury bonds showed mixed trends on September 24. The 10Y treasury bond yield rose 1.98bp to 1.9%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 41.3bp [2] Overseas Market - Treasury Bonds - **Yield Changes**: On September 24, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Monetary Policy**: On September 24, the central bank conducted 4015 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 170 billion yuan. It also announced a 6000 - billion - yuan MLF operation on September 25, with a net injection of 3000 billion yuan in September, continuing the moderately loose monetary policy [3] - **Trade Policy**: China stated at the WTO that it would not seek new special and differential treatment, while emphasizing its status as the largest developing country. The US and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with certain EU products on the tariff - exemption list [3] - **Financial Policy**: Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits, with specific collateral requirements [3] - **US Fiscal Policy**: The US Treasury Secretary criticized the Fed Chairman and urged a 100 - 150 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap with Argentina [3] Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On September 24, most money - market interest rates rose, and US treasury bond yields collectively increased [3] Comment and Strategy - The market situation showed that treasury bond futures prices generally declined, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal, and short - end Shibor rates rose. Although the MLF continued to inject medium - term liquidity, considering factors such as economic data and the Fed's policy, it is recommended to remain bearish on the long - end and stay on the sidelines for the short - end [3]

重点品种：铜、黄金、原油 铜：夜盘铜价收涨 3.31%，印尼 Grasberg 矿难导致供应预期缩减。年初以来精 矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统 计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比陡增，未来增速可能放缓； 汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率导致全球 铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 黄金：金银涨势暂缓，出现一定调整。鲍威尔最近一次讲话中表示，就业下行风 险证明降息是合理的，但通胀仍然有些高企，政策取决于数据，延续了 9 月美联 储会议时的谨慎姿态。美联储金融监理副主席鲍曼周二表示，美联储在支持就业 市场方面可能行动过于缓慢，如果需求状况恶化、企业开始财源，届时可能需要 加快降息的速度。上周，9 月美联储风险管理式降息 25 个基点，符合市场预期。 仅有刚被任命的美联储理事米兰支持降息 50 个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景 下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨慎，不过降息前景较为明确。市场预期今年剩 余两次会议均将降息。本周接连有几位联储官员讲话释放谨慎态度，但市场情绪 整体并未受其打压。市场预期关税对 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily update on the basis of non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, etc., and offers short - term price trend views and strategies [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Copper may have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 3.31%. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia led to a reduced supply expectation. The concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and the smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss, but the smelting output has continued to grow. The power industry has positive growth, the PV rush - installation has increased sharply year - on - year, and the future growth rate may slow down. The auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, which will support the copper price in the long term [2] - Zinc may have short - term wide - range weak - side fluctuations. The night - session zinc price rose 0.62%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has generally recovered, the smelting profit has turned positive, and the smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. The infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has a small positive growth, the auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 25 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 10,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 31.37 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 144,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 400 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 20,705 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 5.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 513,850 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,845 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 105 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: 59.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 45,775 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,050 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 121,250 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 1,250 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 15,435 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 178.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 230,454 tons, LME inventory daily change: 1,554 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 115 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 40.08 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 219,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,700 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 271,650 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 960 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 34,315 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 105.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 2,575 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 5 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - Protein Meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal rebounded. Argentina temporarily取消 export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat, increasing global soybean market pressure. With ongoing US soybean harvest and unclear export prospects, domestic supply increase expectations and lower import costs may lead to short - term low - level oscillations of domestic soybean meal futures [2]. - Oils and Fats: Night trading of oils and fats was strong. In Malaysia, concerns about palm oil production due to floods in Sabah have subsided. Both production and exports of Malaysian palm oil decreased in September 1 - 20, 2025. Argentina取消 export taxes on soybean oil and meal, pressuring soybean oil prices and affecting palm oil's cost - effectiveness. This is expected to continue to drag down the performance of oils and fats in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8100, 9126, and 9921 respectively, with changes of 14, 72, and - 75, and percentage changes of 0.17%, 0.80%, and - 3.15%. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2930, 2457, and 8844, with changes of 2, - 35, and 26, and percentage changes of 0.07%, - 1.40%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads and ratios such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, etc., showed different changes compared to the previous values. For example, Y9 - 1 changed from - 296 to - 320 [1]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4299 (ringgit/ton), 1009 (cents/bushel), 50 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton), with changes of - 84, - 4, - 0, and - 1, and percentage changes of - 1.92%, - 0.40%, - 0.14%, and - 0.40% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and fats and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.85%, while the spot price of Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil decreased by 0.59% [1]. - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads also changed. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil was 210, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil changed from - 590 to - 560 [1]. Import and Crushing Profits - Import and crushing profits for different products such as Malaysian palm oil, US Gulf soybeans, etc., changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import and crushing profit of Malaysian palm oil changed from - 656 to - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, etc., showed some changes. For example, the warehouse receipts of palm oil decreased from 1570 to 1500 [1]. Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil exports in July 2025 were 354 tons, production was 511 tons, and inventory was 257 tons, slightly increasing from the previous month [2]. - Brazil's National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) lowered the September soybean export forecast from 753 tons to 715 tons and increased the September corn export forecast from 712 tons to 761 tons [2].

美国8月新屋销售年化总数80万户，远超预期的65万户，环比大涨20.5%，达到自2022年初以来 的最快增速。8月待售新房库存降至49万套，为今年以来的最低水平。 消 息 评 论 及 策 略 金银涨势暂缓，出现一定调整。鲍威尔最近一次讲话中表示，就业下行风险证明降息是合理 的，但通胀仍然有些高企，政策取决于数据，延续了9月美联储会议时的谨慎姿态。美联储金融 监理副主席鲍曼周二表示，美联储在支持就业市场方面可能行动过于缓慢，如果需求状况恶化 、企业开始财源，届时可能需要加快降息的速度。上周，9月美联储风险管理式降息25个基点， 符合市场预期。仅有刚被任命的美联储理事米兰支持降息50个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景 下，美联储的降息姿态仍然较为谨慎，不过降息前景较为明确。市场预期今年剩余两次会议均 将降息。本周接连有几位联储官员讲话释放谨慎态度，但市场情绪整体并未受其打压。市场预 期关税对通胀影响或持续性有限，并对四季度投资增长有一定期待。美国财政赤字、债务持续 膨胀，以中国为代表的央行持续增持黄金，黄金方面长期驱动仍然明确。对美联储继续降息的 预期令多头情绪延续，但短期出现一定调整。 20250925申万期货品种 ...

申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不 保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中的观 点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司无关。 责 声 明 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建议，不 得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、建议用于非法目的， 所产生的一切经济、法律责任均与本公司无关。 20250923申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 485.8 ...

20250923申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 可能短期区间波动 铜： | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 可能短期宽幅偏弱波动 锌： | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低0.07%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润承压，但冶炼产 量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力行业延续正增长，光伏抢装同比 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 陡增，未来增速可能放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续 | | | | 疲弱。多空因素交织，铜价可能区间波动。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需 | 间波动 | | | 求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.25%。锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速小幅 | | | 锌 | 正增长，汽车产销正增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。短期供求差 | 可能短期宽 | | | 异可能向过剩倾斜，锌价可能区间偏弱波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下 | 幅偏弱波动 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号： ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices dropped, then strengthened again starting Friday evening and reached new highs this week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, in line with market expectations. The market anticipates further rate cuts in the remaining two meetings this year. Despite the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts under Trump's pressure, the outlook for rate cuts is clear. The strong US retail sales in August and progress in trade negotiations have led to expectations of investment growth in Q4. The long - term drivers for gold remain clear due to the US fiscal deficit, expanding debt, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. After a short - term adjustment, the expectation of continued Fed rate cuts has sustained bullish sentiment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - **Precious Metal Futures Prices**: The prices of SHFE gold and silver futures contracts (2510 and 2512) all increased, with silver showing higher percentage increases. For example, the price of SHFE silver 2512 rose by 3.78% to 10348.00, and SHFE gold 2512 rose by 2.46% to 850.98 [2] - **Precious Metal Futures Positions and Volumes**: The trading volumes and open interests of SHFE gold and silver futures contracts were relatively large. For instance, the trading volume of SHFE silver 2512 was 571883, and its open interest was 433982 [2] - **Precious Metal Futures Premiums**: The spot premiums of SHFE gold and silver futures were all negative [2] Spot Market - **Precious Metal Spot Prices**: The prices of London gold, London silver, Shanghai gold T + D, and Shanghai silver T + D all increased. London silver had a relatively high increase of 1.21%, reaching 843.32 dollars per ounce [2] - **Precious Metal Spot Ratios**: The ratios between different precious metal spot prices and futures prices showed some changes. For example, the ratio of gold to silver decreased from 84.04 to 83.10 [2] Inventory - **Precious Metal Inventories**: The inventory of SHFE gold increased by 999.00 kilograms to 57429 kilograms, while the inventory of SHFE silver decreased by 44080.00 kilograms to 1159443 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 183001.68 ounces, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 43194 ounces [2] Related Market Indicators - **Related Market Indexes**: The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.6519, the S&P index increased by 0.49% to 6664.36, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.73% to 4.14, and Brent crude oil price decreased slightly by 0.01% to 66.05. The US dollar to RMB exchange rate increased by 0.15% to 7.1196 [2] ETF and CFTC Data - **ETF Holdings**: The holdings of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1.00 ton to 44315 tons [2] - **CFTC Speculative Positions**: The net long positions of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while those in gold decreased by 1451 [2] Macro News - **Argentina's Situation**: Argentine President Milei is negotiating to curb market selling and avoid a debt crisis and plans to meet with US President Trump in New York on Tuesday [3] - **Fed Officials' Statements**: Different Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Some are cautious about canceling restrictive monetary policies, some support the recent rate cut as an insurance measure, and some oppose further rate cuts due to high inflation. However, newly - appointed Fed理事Milan is strongly dovish and calls for significant and rapid rate cuts [3] - **US Economic Data**: US retail sales in August were strong, with a month - on - month increase of 0.6% (estimated 0.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, achieving 11 consecutive months of positive growth [3] - **US Trade Negotiations**: There are multi - party progress in US trade negotiations, and the impact of tariffs on inflation may be limited [3]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/9/23 星期二 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4510.00 4487.00 4464.40 | 4440.40 | | | 前日收盘价 | 4506.40 4493.40 4484.00 | 4459.00 | | | 沪深300 | 涨跌 -3.38 -1.60 13.60 | 12.40 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.07 -0.04 0.30 | 0.28 | | | 成交量 | 33705.00 2045.00 65934.00 | 8437.00 | ...