Group 1: Report Summary - The report covers various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping [1][9][11] - It analyzes market performance, price trends, and influencing factors for different commodities and financial instruments [2][3][9] - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies, central bank actions, and economic data are considered [2][9][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The Chinese foreign exchange market shows resilience despite complex external situations [1] - Gold and silver may continue to be strong due to market risk aversion and long - term drivers [2][14] - Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC production, US inventory data, and trade tensions [3][11] - Steel prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand balance and cost factors [4][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Main News - **International News**: Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, including tariff adjustments and market access [5] - **Domestic News**: At the end of Q2, RMB real estate loan balances increased, while personal housing loan balances decreased slightly [6] - **Industry News**: Russia maintains its forecast for grain production and expects significant grain exports [7] 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - Various outer - market indices and commodities showed different price changes on July 22 compared to July 21, including gains in the S&P 500, London gold, and losses in ICE Brent crude [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties **Financial** - **Stock Index**: A - shares are considered to have high investment value in the medium - to - long term, with different indices having different characteristics [9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Long - term treasury bond prices are falling, and market funds are relatively stable. External policies and economic data affect the market [10] **Energy and Chemical** - **Crude Oil**: Prices are falling, affected by OPEC production increases, US inventory changes, and trade tensions [3][11] - **Methanol**: Short - term prices are expected to be bullish due to changes in production load and inventory [12] - **Rubber**: Prices may slowly rise due to supply - side factors, while demand - side support is weak [13] **Metal** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are likely to remain strong, but there are risks of Trump's tariff threats being realized [2][14] - **Copper**: Prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [15] - **Zinc**: Prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to factors like US tariffs and production [16] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term prices may be strong, but there is no basis for medium - term reversal [17] **Black Commodities** - **Iron Ore**: Prices may be strong in the short term due to demand support and supply - demand imbalances in the medium term [19] - **Steel**: Prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand and cost factors [4][20] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may rise further in the short term but are likely to peak after late August [21] **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, affected by US soybean conditions and domestic supply [22] - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices may be supported, and the overall market is expected to be in a volatile pattern [23] **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a weak state, and the peak of the seasonal peak season may be approaching [24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [2] - From a medium - and long - term perspective, A - shares have a relatively high investment cost - performance. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4118.80, 4109.80, 4076.20, and 4047.60 respectively, with increases of 43.60, 45.40, 44.60, and 45.40. The trading volumes were 29517.00, 69503.00, 14593.00, and 3790.00, and the open interests were 47302.00, 162828.00, 52902.00, and 4515.00, with increases of 4202.00, 9997.00, 1211.00, and 982.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2794.80, 2796.80, 2798.60, and 2798.80 respectively, with increases of 23.20, 25.00, 24.00, and 22.60. The trading volumes were 15532.00, 37371.00, 5645.00, and 1250.00, and the open interests were 21381.00, 65052.00, 14218.00, and 1127.00, with increases of 2695.00, 5322.00, 844.00, and 90.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6183.20, 6129.40, 6001.20, and 5888.20 respectively, with increases of 72.60, 69.60, 68.80, and 70.80. The trading volumes were 26660.00, 49010.00, 12904.00, and 4002.00, and the open interests were 54215.00, 108997.00, 56846.00, and 5268.00, with changes of 1591.00, 2193.00, - 123.00, and 874.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 6590.00, 6515.40, 6331.00, and 6172.80 respectively, with increases of 44.80, 42.80, 42.60, and 44.40. The trading volumes were 39378.00, 118700.00, 26255.00, and 7964.00, and the open interests were 62728.00, 178632.00, 77150.00, and 9821.00, with changes of 367.00, - 302.00, - 1405.00, and 1357.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 9.00, 2.00, - 53.80, and - 74.60 respectively, compared with previous values of - 9.80, 0.20, - 51.00, and - 72.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's values of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 4118.96, 2792.18, 6213.41, and 6637.10 respectively, with increases of 0.82, 0.72, 0.85, and 0.38. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 257.60, 68.31, 246.21, and 301.66, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 4508.74, 1293.95, 3136.62, and 3959.15 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, energy, raw materials, and industry had relatively high growth rates of 3.97%, 2.64%, and 2.38% respectively, while real - estate finance and information technology had declines of - 0.57% and - 0.06% respectively [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **CSI 300 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to CSI 300 were - 0.16, - 9.16, - 42.76, and - 71.36 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 11.01, - 20.81, - 52.01, and - 77.21 [1] - **SSE 50 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to SSE 50 were 2.62, 4.62, 6.42, and 6.62 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 1.24, - 1.04, 2.36, and 2.56 [1] - **CSI 500 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to CSI 500 were - 30.21, - 84.01, - 212.21, and - 325.21 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 54.71, - 105.71, - 231.91, and - 344.91 [1] - **CSI 1000 Contracts**: The previous day's basis values of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) relative to CSI 1000 were - 47.10, - 121.70, - 306.10, and - 464.30 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 76.66, - 149.06, - 335.46, and - 493.46 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic Major Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3581.86, 11099.83, 6881.54, and 2310.86 respectively, with increases of 0.62%, 0.84%, 0.58%, and 0.61% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were 25130.03, 39774.92, 6309.62, and 24041.90 respectively, with changes of 0.54%, - 0.11%, 0.06%, and - 1.09% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Policy in Shenzhen**: Since the issuance of the "Opinions on Deeply Promoting the Comprehensive Reform Pilot in Shenzhen, Deepening Reform and Innovation, and Expanding Opening - up", relevant departments in Shenzhen have strengthened communication with central ministries. A series of reform results, including "the return of Hong Kong - listed Greater Bay Area enterprises to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange for listing", are expected to be implemented within this year [2] - **Real - Estate Loans**: At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2] - **US Trade Agreements**: The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and Indonesia will cancel 99% of tariff barriers on US goods [2] - **Rural Highway Regulations**: The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Data Industry**: As of the first half of this year, the National Data Administration has guided the construction of data annotation bases in 7 cities, built 524 data sets, and served 163 large models. In the second half of the year, it plans to layout and build a number of data industry cluster pilot areas [2] - **Shipbuilding Industry**: In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion volume, new order volume, and order backlog accounted for 51.7%, 68.3%, and 64.9% of the world's total in terms of deadweight tons, and 47.2%, 64.0%, and 57.6% in terms of compensated gross tons respectively [2] - **Telecom Industry**: In the first half of the year, the cumulative telecom business revenue reached 9055 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 1%. The user scale of 5G, gigabit networks, and the Internet of Things continued to expand [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2509 contract down 0.03% and an increase in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, while those in the US, Germany, and Japan declined. The central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan, and the market capital was relatively stable. Given the complex external environment, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and the price fluctuations of Treasury bond futures may increase in the short term due to the rise in market risk appetite [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts TS2509, TS2512, TF2509, TF2512, T2509, T2512, TL2509, and TL2512 all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.01% to - 0.45%. Open interest for some contracts increased (e.g., TF2509, T2509, TL2512), while others decreased (e.g., TS2509, TF2512). Trading volumes varied across contracts [2] - **Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts changed compared to the previous values, with some widening and some narrowing [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the active CTD bonds of each Treasury bond futures contract was between 1.1176% and 1.6478%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - SHIBOR7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates decreased by 1.7bp, 0.95bp, and 0.9bp respectively, while SHIBOR overnight, DR001, and FR001 also decreased, and GC001 increased slightly [2] Spot Market - **China's Treasury Bond Yields**: Yields of China's key - term Treasury bonds, including 6M, 1Y, 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, 20Y, and 30Y, generally increased, with the 10Y yield rising 0.92bp to 1.68%. The 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.74bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: US 10Y, German 10Y, and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields decreased by 6bp, 5bp, and 3.3bp respectively. The internal - external yield spreads varied [2] Macro and Industry Information - **Macro News**: The central bank conducted 170.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan. China's July LPR remained unchanged, and the market expects a further decline in the second half of the year. There are important diplomatic events and new regulations such as the "Housing Rental Regulations" [3] - **Industry Information**: Most money - market interest rates declined. US Treasury bond yields decreased across the board, mainly driven by the rise in the European Treasury bond market and increased concerns about US - EU trade negotiations [3] - **Comments and Strategies**: Long - end Treasury bonds fell significantly, and the central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal. The market capital was stable. With a complex external environment, the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, and short - term price fluctuations of Treasury bond futures may increase [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Commodities mostly rose, and attention should be paid to the determination of policies. The yields of U.S. Treasury bonds declined, and the listing benchmark price of propylene futures was set at 6,350 yuan/ton. Coal futures showed significant gains [1]. - In the medium to long term, A - shares have high investment value. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][12]. - The price of coking coal may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue their strong performance, but the risk of Trump's threat materializing needs to be watched [4][18]. Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day - **International News**: Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of U.S. industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [5]. - **Domestic News**: China's July LPR remained unchanged for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year at 3.5%, which was in line with market expectations [6]. - **Industry News**: In June, China's total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to June, the cumulative electricity consumption was 4,841.8 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.14%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.33%, and the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.26%. Gold and silver in London showed significant increases, while some agricultural products such as ICE 11 - sugar and CBOT soybeans declined [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The U.S. three major indexes mostly rose. The previous trading day's stock index also rose, with the building materials sector leading the gain and the banking sector leading the decline. The A - share market has high investment value in the medium to long term [2][12]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - end of Treasury bonds fell significantly. The central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of funds. The short - term market risk appetite increased, and the price volatility of Treasury bond futures may increase [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil futures fell 1.2% at night. U.S. refined oil demand decreased year - on - year, and the OPEC predicted an improvement in the global economy in the second half of the year [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures rose 0.79% at night. The domestic methanol plant operating rate decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose. The supply side provided support, while the demand side was weak. The price is expected to rise slowly [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver strengthened again. The market's risk - aversion demand increased, and the weakening of the U.S. dollar and Treasury bond yields provided upward momentum [4][18]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed flat at night. The smelting output was under pressure, and the downstream demand was stable overall. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The concentrate processing fee increased, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly output of lithium carbonate increased slightly. The demand was in the peak season, but the inventory also increased. The short - term price may be strong, but there is no basis for a medium - term reversal [21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global shipment decreased recently. The short - term macro - expectation was strong, and the iron ore price was expected to be strong [22][23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel gradually emerged, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term steel price was expected to be strong [24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of blast furnaces and coke improved, and the inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased. The price may continue to rise in the short term but is likely to peak after late August [3][25]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The U.S. and Indonesia reached a trade agreement, and the market's expectation of improved Sino - U.S. trade relations increased. The domestic supply was abundant, and the domestic soybean meal was expected to be strong in the short term [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures were weak at night. The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the demand for palm oil was strong. The overall oils and fats market was expected to fluctuate [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract weakened at the end of the session. The SCFIS European line index declined. The European line was in the seasonal peak season, and the freight rate was expected to rise in August. Attention should be paid to the announcement of shipping company freight rates in August [29].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices testing smelting output, and the mixed factors of stable downstream demand in China (positive growth in power and auto industries, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real estate). Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and the expected improvement in concentrate supply and possible recovery of smelting supply this year, along with mixed downstream demand (positive growth in auto and stable growth in infrastructure, slowing growth in home appliance output, and weak real estate). Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Information Copper - Night - time copper prices closed flat. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,700 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 160 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 9,867 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 66.96 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 122,175 tons, and the daily change was 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects an obvious improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,845 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 1.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 119,100 tons, and the daily change was - 2,375 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 90 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,641 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.18 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 430,700 tons, and the daily change was 3,500 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,550 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 2,010 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,510 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 205.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 207,576 tons, and the daily change was 294 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 185 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,015 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 25.97 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 268,400 tons, and the daily change was - 2,550 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 33,675 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 53.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,935 tons, and the daily change was - 100 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices have strengthened. Market risk aversion has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st, and the weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled due to the rebound in US CPI. There is a need to be vigilant about the possibility of Trump's tariff threats being realized. Gold has long - term driving forces but is hesitant to rise at high prices, while silver is relatively strong due to the boost from industrial products. Gold and silver may continue their relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 779.32 and 783.66 respectively, with daily increases of 5.36 (0.69%) and 5.28 (0.68%). The current prices of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 9242.00 and 9290.00 respectively, with daily increases of 102.00 (1.12%) and 104.00 (1.13%) [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are 53205 and 97403, and the trading volumes are 47780 and 43343 respectively. The positions of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are 141275 and 210744, and the trading volumes are 102682 and 76697 respectively [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2508 and沪金2512 are - 8.40 and - 12.74, and those of沪银2508 and沪银2512 are - 119.00 and - 167.00 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 770.92 and 770.84 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.28 (- 0.17%) and - 1.24 (- 0.16%). The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.85, with a change of - 7.135 (- 0.21%). The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9123.00, with a change of 14.00 (0.15%), and the previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.14, with a change of 0.28 (0.75%) [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2506 and沪银2512 - 沪银2506 are 4.34 and 48 respectively. The current value of the gold - to - silver ratio (spot) is 84.50, and the current values of the Shanghai - to - London gold and silver ratios are 7.18 and 7.44 respectively [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold are 28,872 kg and 37,143,884 respectively, with changes of 0 and an increase of 346,352.72 compared to the previous day. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver are 1,217,085 kg and 496,688,541 respectively, with changes of an increase of 4,296.00 kg and a decrease of 493426 compared to the previous day [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P 500 index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6419, 6297.36, 4.47, 69.65, and 7.1847 respectively, with daily increases of 0.36%, 0.54%, 0.22%, 0.01%, and 0.06% [2]. - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous day. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895, with changes of an increase of 481 and a decrease of 1451 [2]. 3.5 Macroeconomic News - **Japan's Political Situation**: In Japan's 27th Senate election, the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito lost its majority in the Senate. Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru said he would continue to serve, while the leader of the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party Noda Yoshihiko said he would consider a no - confidence motion against the cabinet if Ishiba remained in office [3]. - **US Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The Trump administration's "Great and Beautiful" bill is expected to increase the US fiscal deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next ten years. US Treasury Secretary Bessent criticized the Fed's "panic propaganda" on tariffs, and the Trump administration is trying to influence market expectations through new Fed chair candidates [3]. - **Trade Issues**: The EU may hold a meeting this week to prepare for the scenario of failing to reach a trade agreement with the US and may use the "anti - coercion tool." Trump's tariff negotiation stance has hardened as the August 1st deadline approaches. Trump has postponed the new trade tariff deadline, but there is a risk of the tariff threat being realized [3]. - **EU's New Policy**: The EU Commission is formulating a new bill requiring large enterprises and car rental companies to switch to electric vehicle procurement by 2030, which may affect about 60% of new car sales in the EU, covering a market size of about 6.4 million vehicles per year [3].

| | 1、南部半岛棕榈油压榨商协会（SPPOMA）数据显示，2025年7月1-20日马来西亚棕榈油产量环比 | | --- | --- | | | 上月同期增加6.19%。2、马来西亚独立检验机构Amspec表示，马来西亚7月1-20日的棕榈油出口量 | | 行业 | 环比减少7.31%。3、Saveraa International：截至2025年7月15日，印度港口植物油总库存量已 | | | 攀升至855679公吨，较6月30日的722918公吨，在短短半个月内激增18%。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡下行，美国与印度尼西亚达成贸易协议，将大豆关税从32%降至19%，协 | | | 议中包含印尼采购45亿美元美国农产品（涵盖大豆、玉米和棉花）。作为美国大豆第五大进口 | | | 国，印尼此举有力提振了市场对未来美豆出口需求的信心。同时近期民间出口商向未知目的地销 | | | 售12万吨美国大豆，市场对于中美贸易关系改善预期增加。叠加美豆生柴政策下，需求仍将给美 | | | 豆价格提供支撑，美豆期价出现回升。国内供应宽松格局仍将施压上方空间，短期受进口成本支 | | | 撑预计连 ...

报告日期：2025 年 7 月 21 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：美国稳定币监管立法落地，中国工业经济韧性凸显 美国总统特朗普在白宫正式签署《指导与建立美国稳定币国家创新法案》（简 称《天才法案》），标志着美国稳定币监管立法进入实施阶段。 美国众议院 17 日以 308 票赞成、122 票反对的结果，通过了这一法案，该法案旨在为"锚 定"美元的稳定币制定监管框架。国内方面今年上半年工业和信息化领域主要 经济指标总量和增速稳步提升，规上工业增加值同比增长 6.4%，在一季度良好 开局的基础上展现出较强韧性，制造业增加值占 GDP 比重达到 25.7%，基本保 持稳定。下一步，多项政策举措将筑牢工业经济基本盘、持续培育发展动能。 其中，工业和信息化部将实施新一轮钢铁、有色金属、石化、建材等十大重点 行业稳增长工作方案；会同相关部门完善支持新型工业化的金融政策，纵深推 进产融合作；在政策、人才、资金、市场等方面持续优化企业发展环境。 重点品种：黄金、钢材、股指 钢材：当前钢厂盈利率持平未明显降低，铁水仍处高位缓慢回落的情况下，钢材 供应端压力逐步体现。钢材库存延续去化，钢材出口虽面临关税和反倾销影响， 但钢坯 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading session, with the T2509 contract down 0.09% and little change in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed movements, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US 10Y Treasury bond yields declined, German 10Y yields rose, and Japanese 10Y yields fell. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures, but the "anti - involution" policy drives some commodity prices to strengthen, increasing the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, for TS2509, the closing price was 102.434, down 0.006 (-0.01%); for TS2512, it was 102.498, down 0.004 (0.00%); for TF2509, 105.990, down 0.055 (-0.05%); for TF2512, 106.050, down 0.065 (-0.06%); for T2509, 108.790, down 0.095 (-0.09%); for T2512, 108.860, down 0.080 (-0.07%); for TL2509, 120.46, down 0.270 (-0.22%); for TL2512, 120.3, down 0.260 (-0.22%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: Open interest for TS2509 was 113080 (down 174), TS2512 was 8999 (down 110), TF2509 was 157810 (up 943), TF2512 was 37446 (up 721), T2509 was 192316 (down 630), T2512 was 37438 (up 270), TL2509 was 115390 (down 1221), TL2512 was 32595 (up 128). Trading volumes were 22678 for TS2509, 1786 for TS2512, 44183 for TF2509, 2983 for TF2512, 51738 for T2509, 5384 for T2512, 72268 for TL2509, and 5564 for TL2512 [2] - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread for TS was -0.064 (previous value -0.062), TF was -0.060 (previous value -0.070), T was -0.070 (previous value -0.055), and TL was 0.160 (previous value 0.170) [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of active CTD bonds for each contract was between 1.3735% - 1.8005%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed movements. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.75bp to 1.67%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.02bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: US 10Y Treasury bond yields fell 3bp, German 10Y yields rose 1bp, and Japanese 10Y yields fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 18, the central bank conducted 1875 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 1028 billion yuan. This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 2000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits [3] - **LPR**: The latest LPR will be announced on July 21, and it is widely expected to remain unchanged [3] - **Trade and Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to US and Canadian trade - related measures, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' rights [3] - **Hydropower Project**: The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [3] - **Fed**: Fed Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged the Fed to cut rates. The US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On July 18, most money market interest rates showed mixed movements, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields declined across the board, mainly due to Waller's dovish remarks and the decline in inflation expectations [3] Comment and Strategy - The central bank's supportive monetary policy supports Treasury bond futures prices, but the "anti - involution" policy boosts commodity prices, increasing the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices [3]

Report Overview - The report is the "20250721 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report", focusing on the market conditions of copper and zinc, and also presenting domestic market basis data and LME spot premium/discount data [1][2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2] - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market - Weekend night - session copper prices closed higher. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry in positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2] - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2] Zinc Market - Weekend night - session zinc prices closed higher. The concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak [2] - The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Short - term zinc prices may fluctuate widely. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2] Domestic Market Basis Data - Copper basis is 115 yuan/ton, aluminum basis is 120 yuan/ton, zinc basis is - 15 yuan/ton, nickel basis is - 1750 yuan/ton, lead basis is - 195 yuan/ton, and tin basis is 760 yuan/ton [2][3] LME Spot Premium/Discount Data - Copper LME spot premium/discount is - 53.76 dollars/ton, aluminum is - 0.78 dollars/ton, zinc is 4.75 dollars/ton, nickel is - 194.43 dollars/ton, lead is - 24.20 dollars/ton, and tin is 44.00 dollars/ton [2][5]