| | 1、巴西马托格罗索州2024/2025年度取得破纪录的大豆单产。Fundacao MT的农业经济顾问Elcio | | --- | --- | | | Bonfada表示，该州单产平均为每公顷66.3袋，较近些年的平均水平高出14袋。2、随着国际棕榈 | | | 油价格大幅回落，我国棕榈油买船增多，预期5-6月我国进口棕榈油量分别在25万吨和28万吨。考 | | 行业 | 虑到国内棕榈油消费已压缩到20万吨左右刚需水平，后续棕榈油供给预期改善，库存可能有所回 | | 信息 | 升，价格将逐步走弱。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱震荡。近期美豆产区天气整体较为顺利，有助于大豆播种工作的推进。 | | | USDA公布本月供需报告，美豆产量及期末库存均低于预估，报告数据利多。并且中美会谈取得实 | | | 质性进展，因此美豆出口前景得到改善，美豆生柴政策出现利好，美豆期价回升至贸易关税之前 | | | 水平。国内方面，中美关税取得进展国内进口美国大豆有望增加。近期国内油厂开机大幅回升， | | | 供应偏紧情况得到明显缓解，豆粕供应快速增加预期较强。二季度国内原料大豆、豆粕供应料充 | | | 足，将 ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理李强在会上强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以 | | 国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 | | 司法保障资本市场改革发展迎来纲领性文件。最高人民法院、证监会联合发布《关于严格公正执法司法服务保障资本市场高质量发展的指导意见》，其中提 | | 出，依法打击资本违规隐形入股、违法违规"造富"行为；依法打击欺诈发行和持续信息披露造假，坚持"追首恶"、"打帮凶"。对于编传"小作文"损害 | | 他人权益且构成犯罪的，依法追究刑事责任。 | | 我国城市更新顶层设计出台。中办、国办近日印发《关于持续推进城市更新行动的意见》，提出八方面主要任务，其中包括：推进城镇老旧小区整治改造，开 | | 展完整社区建设，推进老旧街区、老旧厂区、城中村等更新改造，加强城市基础设施建设改造等。这意味着中国大力实施城市更新按下"加速键"。 | | 宏观信息 商务部回应"美方加严限制中国芯片"表示，中方敦促美方立即纠正错误做法，并将采取坚决 ...

20250516申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 7217 | 7500 | 7298 | 7094 | 7248 | 7161 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7259 | 7480 | 7339 | 7136 | 7220 | 7193 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -42 | 20 | -41 | -42 | 28 | -32 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.58% | 0.27% | -0.56% | -0.59% | 0.39% | -0.44% | | 场 | 成交量 | 41121 | 228 | 460827 | 19015 | 1 | 379584 | | | 持仓量 | 73716 | 1787 | 527579 | 44608 | 3078 ...

原油大跌，集运偏强 2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货有限公司 研究所 联系人：马思远 从业资格号：F03141554 联系方式：021-5058 6040 地址：上海东方路 800 号 宝安大厦 7、8、10 楼 邮编：200122 传真：021 5058 8822 网址：www.sywgqh.com.cn 原油：sc 下跌 4.98%。美国劳工部 13 日发布数据显示，美国 4 月份消 费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨 2.3%，环比数据由上个月的-0.1%扭转为上 涨 0.2%。美国 4 月 CPI 的同比数据低于市场预期的 2.4%。美国石油学 会数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加，同期美国汽油库存和馏分油库 存减少。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 428.7 万 桶；同期美国汽油库存减少 137.4 万桶；馏分油库存减少 367.5 万桶。 库欣地区原油库存减少 85 万桶。美国能源部周初报告说，上周美国石 油战略储备 3.996 万桶，增加了 50 万桶。关注低油价给与美国制裁委 股指：股指回调，美容护理板块领涨，计算机、通信和电子板块领跌， 全市成交额 1.19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. Zinc prices may also have short - term wide - range fluctuations. Aluminum prices are expected to be mainly oscillating strongly in the short term. Nickel prices may show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with high growth in power investment driven by the power grid, continued growth in home appliance production, and potential for new energy to boost automotive copper demand. The narrowing decline in real estate data is also a factor. Copper prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, inventory, and basis changes [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,440 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,607 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 14.83 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 185,575 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 4,075 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliances are performing well, and the decline in real estate data is narrowing. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. The previous decline in zinc prices has partially digested the production growth expectation. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term, and attention should be paid to US tariff negotiations, dollar and RMB exchange rates, and smelting output [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 215 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,765 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 22.27 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 167,050 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 900 tons [2]. Aluminum - The night - session Shanghai aluminum main contract closed up 0.67%. Sino - US tariff negotiations exceeded expectations, which is beneficial to non - ferrous demand and prices. Fundamentally, the future supply and demand of alumina are expected to be loose, but some manufacturers currently have low profits and are undergoing maintenance. For futures prices to fall again, a further decline in bauxite prices and the resumption of production by alumina manufacturers are needed. Recently, the operating rates of most aluminum processing sectors, except for the aluminum cable sector, have declined slightly, and the market expects a decrease in downstream orders. In the short term, the demand for electrolytic aluminum is weakening, but due to the better - than - expected tariff negotiation results, Shanghai aluminum is expected to be mainly oscillating strongly [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,290 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 20 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,529 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 399,300 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 0 tons [2]. Nickel - The night - session Shanghai nickel main contract closed up 0.92%. Nickel ore supply in Indonesia is still tight, leading to a continuous increase in nickel ore prices, which are passed on to downstream enterprises. The new Indonesian tariff policy may cause local nickel product prices to rise. Precursor manufacturers have sufficient raw material inventories and low purchasing enthusiasm, and nickel salt enterprises have production reduction expectations, so nickel salt prices may rise moderately. Stainless steel demand is mediocre, and prices are mainly oscillating. Fundamentally, there are both bullish and bearish factors in the nickel market, and nickel prices may follow the non - ferrous sector and show an oscillatingly strong trend in the short term [1]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 124,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,300 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,871 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 195.59 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 198,432 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 84 tons [2]. Lead - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,905 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 180 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 1,997 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 6.64 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,275 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,900 tons [2]. Tin - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 264,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 1,170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price was 32,814 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 73.89 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,775 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 15 tons [2].

报告日期：2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：中美经贸关系竞合窗口期 2025 年 5 月 15 日，中方宣布自即日起暂停对 28 家美国实体的出口管制措施， 同时美方同步撤销对中国商品 91%的关税，保留的 34%关税中 24%暂停加征 90 天。 这场"关税休战"标志着双方在芬太尼关税争端持续两年后首次达成竞合妥协，但 商务部昨日"发现一起查处一起"的强硬表态，以及美方仍保留 10%战略关税的举 措，揭示出博弈远未结束。 国内政策组合拳精准发力，央行降准释放万亿流动性与科技金融 15 条新政形成 共振。0.5 个百分点的全面降准叠加汽车金融公司定向降准，既延续了适度宽松 基调，又精准支持实体产业升级。值得关注的是，4 月企业新发贷款利率降至 3.2% 的历史低位，配合《促进科技金融发展意见》提出的全生命周期金融服务体系， 政策着力点正从总量刺激转向结构优化。 海外市场方面，特朗普政府的"交易艺术"展现新动向。在斩获卡塔尔 2000 亿美 元大单的同时，美国众议院推进数万亿美元减税计划，这种"左手贸易右手财政 "的组合策略无不体现其交易的风格。 当前中美博弈已进入"边打边谈"的新阶 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/5/15 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7914 | 8184 | 9438 | 2914 | 2416 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 122 | 230 | 64 | 28 | 6 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 1.57% | 2.89% | -3.15% | 0.97% | 0.25% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/5/15 | 星期四 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 3892.00 | 3851.00 | 3783.20 | 3745.00 | 前日收盘价 | 3943.00 | 3907.40 | 3841.40 | 3803.40 | | | 涨跌 | 50.80 | 56.00 | 58.80 | 58.80 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 1.31 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite has increased, leading to a decline in Treasury bond futures prices and potentially greater short - term fluctuations. The cancellation of some additional tariffs and the establishment of an economic and trade consultation mechanism have eased market避险 sentiment. Meanwhile, the market capital situation continues to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors show certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract dropped by 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts changed, with some contracts seeing a decrease in open interest, such as the T2506 contract [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.92bp to 1.68%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.96bp [2]. - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates increased by 1.1bp, 1.03bp, and 1.2bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose by 4bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose by 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose by 5.5bp [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 14, the central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. Starting from May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [3]. - **Economic Data**: At the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, 4bp lower than the previous month [3]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: China adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US, and the US adjusted the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [3]. 3.5 Industry Information - **Interest Rate Trends**: Most money market interest rates rose, and US Treasury bond yields increased across the board. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.672%. The market capital situation continued to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors showed certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3].

| | 20250514申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌： | | | 摘要 | 铝： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | | 镍： 短期内或以震荡偏强为主。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价，考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电网带动电力投资 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 高增长，家电产量延续增长，需关注出口变化，新能源渗透率提升有望巩固 汽车铜需求，地产数据降幅缩窄。铜价短期可能宽幅波动，关注美国关税谈 | 幅波动 | | | 判进展，以及美元、人民币汇率、库存和基差等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电表现良好，地产数据降幅缩窄。市 | | | 锌 | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复，前期锌价的回落已部分 | 可能短期宽 | | | 消化产量增长预期。短 ...