| 现货指数 | 指标 | 最新一期 | 环比涨跌幅 | 上一期 | 环比涨跌幅 | 上上一期 | 环比涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | （周度） | SCFIS-点 | 1657.94 | -7.5% | 1792.14 | -3.6% | 1859.31 | -4.9% | | SCFI-$/TEU | | 1403 | -1.1% | 1418 | -11.1% | 1595 | -4.8% | | 现货运价 | TCI(20GP) $/TEU | 1568 | 1.1% | 1551 | 0.0% | 1551 | 0.0% | | （日度） | TCI(40GP) $/FEU | 2630 | -0.2% | 2636 | 0.0% | 2636 | 0.0% | | | | | 基价差（点） | | | | | | 上一交易日基 | 478.94 | | 上上一交易 | 419.94 | | 环比变化 | 59 | | 差 | | | 日基差 | | | | | -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 倪梦雪 （从业编号F0264569 投资咨询号Z0002226） | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | 价差 | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16335 | 13230 | 12900 | 现值 | 3105 | 3435 | 330 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16245 | 13150 | 12825 | 前值 | 3095 | 3420 | 325 | | 市 | 涨跌 | 90 | 80 | 75 | 涨跌 | 10 | 15 | 5 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | 0.55% | 0.61% | 0.58% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 177554 | 41282 | 82067 | | RU基差 | ...

| | shenyb@sywggh. com. cn 021-50582113 11.1 J | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9 H | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1371.5 | 1119.0 | 1196.5 | 1833.5 | 1665. 0 | 1739.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1393.5 | 1147.0 | 1222.5 | 1863.5 | 1703. 5 | 1774.0 | | Eil | 煮跌 | -22. 0 | -28.0 | -26.0 | -30.0 | -38.5 | -34.5 | | 黑 | 煮跌幅 | -1.58% | -2. 44% | -2. 13% | -1.61% | -2. 26% | -1.94% | | 00 | 成交堂 | 1478 | 711282 | 32661 | 61 | 13882 | 433 | | 场 | 持仓重 | 1616 | 68 T66F | 93095 | 658 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the overall market is expected to continue its phased upward trend. It is in the "Spring Market" window period, with the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the "15th Five - Year Plan", clear profit expectations for main lines such as AI and overseas expansion, and the seasonal recovery of the consumer end and the implementation of investment projects will further boost market confidence. However, with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, there may be significant fluctuations in overseas capital markets during the holiday, especially geopolitical risks, so potential disturbances need to be vigilant [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of IF contracts of different maturities are presented. The price changes range from -0.60 to 9.60. The trading volume of the IF next - month contract is 40,264.00, and the open interest of the IF next - quarter contract is 76,816.00. The open interest of the IF current - month contract decreased by 3,223.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The price changes of IH contracts of different maturities range from 9.80 to 12.20. The trading volume of the IH next - month contract is 19,831.00, and the open interest of the IH next - quarter contract is 24,339.00. The open interest of the IH current - month contract decreased by 1,364.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The price changes of IC contracts of different maturities range from -24.80 to -6.40. The trading volume of the IC next - month contract is 54,914.00, and the open interest of the IC next - quarter contract is 93,478.00. The open interest of the IC current - month contract decreased by 3,901.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The price changes of IM contracts of different maturities range from 11.60 to 17.60. The trading volume of the IM next - month contract is 82,316.00, and the open interest of the IM next - quarter contract is 106,809.00. The open interest of the IM current - month contract decreased by 6,616.00 [1] - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The current inter - monthly spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are -4.20, 0.80, -18.20, and -25.60 respectively, compared with the previous values of -1.40, 0.40, -10.40, and -23.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index rose 0.11%, the SSE 50 index rose 0.18%, the CSI 500 index fell 0.06%, and the CSI 1000 index rose 0.20%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts of these indexes are also provided [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry rose 0.54%, the raw materials industry rose 0.14%, the industrial industry rose 0.09%, and the optional consumption industry rose 0.59%. The main consumption industry fell 1.28%, the pharmaceutical and healthcare industry rose 0.92%, the real estate and finance industry fell 0.07%, and the information technology industry rose 0.60%. The telecommunications business industry fell 0.06%, and the public utilities industry remained unchanged [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - **Futures - Spot Basis of Different Indexes**: The futures - spot basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes are presented. For example, the current basis of IF current - month contract relative to the CSI 300 index is 3.90, compared with the previous value of 3.54 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.41%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 2.17%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index rose 1.74%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.98% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.76%, the Nikkei 225 rose 3.89%, the S&P 500 rose 0.47%, and the DAX Index rose 1.19% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and conduct regular treasury bond trading operations. It also analyzed the issue of bank deposit "outflow" [2] - The draft of the "Shanghai Metropolitan Area Territorial Spatial Planning (2025 - 2035)" was publicly announced, aiming to build a world - influential socialist modern international metropolis area by 2035 [2] - Multiple departments launched projects to provide public services in the health system, including adding 150,000 inclusive childcare places in 2026 and providing free HPV vaccines for 13 - year - old girls [2] - The European Parliament supported the launch of a digital euro in both online and offline forms, and the European Central Bank is expected to start a pilot in 2027 and officially launch it in 2029 [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Five departments jointly issued an implementation opinion on strengthening the capacity building of the information and communication industry to support the development of low - altitude infrastructure, aiming to achieve a ground mobile communication network coverage rate of no less than 90% for low - altitude public routes nationwide by 2027 [2] - The National Health Commission warned about the chaos in the "light medical aesthetics" industry, emphasizing that it must be carried out in medical institutions with relevant qualifications [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments proposed to promote the application of artificial intelligence in the field of bidding and tendering, with 20 key scenarios [2] - In 2025, the total social logistics volume in China was 368.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.1% at comparable prices. The logistics volume of industrial robots increased by 28% year - on - year, and the logistics volume of new energy vehicles increased by 25.1% year - on - year [2]

评 论 及 策 略 铂钯维持看多基调，长期核心逻辑未改，但短期受技术性回调、美联储人事变动等扰动，震 荡加剧。截至2026年2月2日，NYMEX铂、钯价自1月末以来分别回调21.5%、16.9%，核心扰动为特 朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。沃什政策立场偏鸽但不及预期，其提名宣 布后美元短线走强拖累铂钯，且提名需参议院确认，进程及后续政策独立性仍存不确定性，短期 货币政策预期博弈持续。宏观上，鲍威尔司法调查仍动摇美元信用，全球央行购金潮延续，中国 央行连续14个月增持、波兰央行购金计划落地，去美元化下铂钯储备价值凸显；格陵兰岛地缘风 险反复，为价格提供阶段性托底，美联储6月降息预期未变，长期宽松环境仍具支撑。产业端， 铂供需缺口明确，氢能需求激增叠加南非产能约束，支撑强劲；钯供应刚性，混动需求与严苛排 放政策托举需求，现货紧平衡。整体而言，短期扰动不改变长期看多逻辑，需警惕提名进程、外 盘回调等阶段性风险。 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产 ...

| | | | | daihx@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 生猪（LH） | | | | | | 1月 | 3月 | 5月 | 7月 | 9月 | 11月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 13205 | 10745 | 11470 | 12160 | 13115 | 13030 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 13200 | 10645 | 11565 | 12130 | 13095 | 13010 | | 期 | 涨跌 | 5 | 100 | -95 | 30 | 20 | 20 | | 货 | 涨跌幅 | 0.04% | 0.94% | -0.82% | 0.25% | 0.15% | 0.15% | | 市 | 成交量 | 291 | 30850 | 46228 | 6147 | 3382 | 1018 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 2488 | 51980 | 149549 | 50025 | 38008 | 24047 | | | 持仓量增减 | 116 | -8063 ...

5.克利夫兰联储主席哈玛克周二表示，在对经济活动持"谨慎乐观"看法的背景下，美联储今年没 有迫切需要调整利率政策立场。鉴于可能的前景，"在利率目标区间的设定上，我们可能会维持不 变相当一段时间"。她表示，"我认为我们处于一个良好的位置，可以将联邦基金利率维持在当前 水平，观察形势如何发展"，货币政策最有可能接近既不抑制也不刺激经济活动的立场。"与其试 图对利率进行精细调整，我更倾向于在评估近期降息影响、并观察经济表现的过程中保持耐心。" 哈马克指出经济前景依然向好，但同时强调通胀仍然"过高"，并表示在今年通胀可能停留在 3% 左右的风险下，价格压力回落至关重要。在招聘方面，相关信息显示当前状况相对稳定。 6.据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储到 3 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 19.6%，维持利率不变的概率为 80.4%。 美联储到 4 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 36%，维持利率不变的概率为 58.8%，累计降息 50 个基 点的概率为 5.3%。到 6 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 49.3%。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属震荡整理。市场等待本周美国就业和通胀数据公布，对后续降息预期或造成一定影响 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.482 | 102.504 | 106.015 | 106.080 | 108.485 | 108.485 | 112.68 | 112.83 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.484 | 102.514 | 106.025 | 106.085 | 108.490 | 108.500 | 112.73 | 112.84 | | | 涨跌 | -0.002 | -0.010 | -0.010 | -0.005 | -0.005 | -0.015 | -0.050 | ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8098 | 8940 | 9096 | 2734 | 2368 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -16 | -74 | -41 | 5 | 22 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.20% | -0.82% | -3.15% | 0.18% | 0.94% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | 40 | 112 | 68 | -946 | 1057 | 111 | | 市 场 | 前值 | 56 | 134 | 90 | -1000 | 971 | - ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. From a fundamental perspective, the market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and the impact of macro factors on commodities has increased. In the short term, polyolefins fluctuate with costs. Overall, the current spot drivers for polyolefins are relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors. With the long holiday approaching, positions need to be gradually controlled [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6839, 6775, and 6826 respectively, with increases of 51, 54, and 49, and percentage increases of 0.75%, 0.80%, and 0.72% respectively. The trading volumes were 70, 282260, and 21211, and the open interests were 774, 512614, and 69891, with changes of 35, -5995, and -1078 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6671, 6688, and 6707 respectively, with increases of 43, 58, and 46, and percentage increases of 0.65%, 0.87%, and 0.69% respectively. The trading volumes were 134, 257385, and 20657, and the open interests were 2673, 488568, and 112610, with changes of -7, -1773, and 1575 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 64, -51, and -13 respectively, compared to previous values of 67, -56, and -11. For PP, the current spreads were -17, -19, and 36, compared to previous values of -2, -31, and 33 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2244 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 627 US dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Midstream and Products**: The current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets for LL were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 6650 - 7100 yuan/ton, 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7150 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton, compared to previous ranges of 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6650 - 6850 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (February 10), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, down $0.40 or 0.62% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.65 - $64.71. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.8 per barrel, down $0.24 or 0.35% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.44 - $69.49 [2]