Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Financial Market**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is entering a phase of direction selection. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter. The bond market is supported by the expected implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. Methanol, rubber, polyolefins, glass, and soda ash markets have their own supply - demand characteristics and are affected by factors such as inventory and international trade [2][14][15]. - **Metals**: Precious metals have experienced a sharp correction after a rapid rise. The copper market is affected by supply shortages, and the zinc market may fluctuate within a range. The lithium carbonate market is currently in a short - term volatile state [20][21][22]. - **Black Metals**: The double - coking market is expected to oscillate at a high level, the iron ore market is expected to be oscillating and bullish, and the steel market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [24][26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal market is expected to oscillate, the oil market is under short - term pressure, the sugar market is expected to oscillate, and the cotton market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [28][29][30]. - **Shipping Index**: The container shipping European line market is expected to have an upward drive, and the far - month contract is slowly recovering [33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The net financial assets of EU member states have declined compared to previous periods, indicating a deterioration in the financial situation [6]. - **Domestic News**: The central bank will accelerate the legislation in key and emerging fields to improve the financial legal system [7]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of June 2025, the total asset management scale of the trust industry in China reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.11% [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 and the European STOXX 50 had little change. The FTSE China A50 futures rose by 1.62%, the US dollar index rose by 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil rose by 1.18%, London gold fell by 5.31%, and London silver fell by 7.11% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is in a phase of direction selection. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally rose. The central bank's open - market operations increased liquidity, and the market expects the central bank to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. The decline in oil prices is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. The reaction of OPEC in November is crucial [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber rebounded on Tuesday. Supply pressure may increase in the later stage, and demand support is limited. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures continued to be weak, affected by factors such as crude oil prices and inventory digestion [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to be weak. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals declined significantly. The market is waiting for the China - US trade talks, and the Fed's monetary policy and the US government shutdown also affect the market [20]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the market may fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate market is in a short - term volatile state. The fundamentals are improving, but there is still a possibility of project resumption [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Double - Coking**: The double - coking market oscillated narrowly at night. The high iron - water output provides support for the price, but the possibility of blast furnace production reduction cannot be ignored [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is weak. The demand for iron ore is supported by strong steel production, and the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently [26]. - **Steel**: The steel price is stable and rising. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market is expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The protein meal market oscillated downward at night. The US soybean export inspection volume increased, and the Brazilian soybean planting is progressing. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [28]. - **Oils**: The oil market is weak at night. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports provides some support, but the market is under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market oscillated at night. The global sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market is expected to oscillate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market is oscillating strongly. The US cotton market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic cotton market is supported by factors such as the slowdown of machine - picking progress and the rise in seed cotton purchase prices [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping European line market is strong in the morning. Maersk's price increase in November indicates its intention to support prices, and the market is waiting for other shipping companies' actions and the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4519.80, 4506.80, 4482.00, and 4447.20 respectively. The price changes were - 20.06, 9.40, - 2.60, and - 15.80 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 300 index of - 0.44, 0.21, - 0.06, and - 0.35. The trading volumes were 25145.00, 71457.00, 12171.00, and 3514.00 respectively, and the positions were 40679.00, 156399.00, 56967.00, and 3406.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 40679.00, 112532.00, - 106267.00, and - 55287.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2972.00, 2970.40, 2972.00, and 2969.80 respectively. The price changes were - 11.27, 7.40, 10.40, and 7.20 respectively, with corresponding changes in the SSE 50 index of - 0.38, 0.25, 0.35, and 0.24. The trading volumes were 13161.00, 34271.00, 4201.00, and 986.00 respectively, and the positions were 14994.00, 60464.00, 13478.00, and 956.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 14994.00, 44254.00, - 54024.00, and - 13254.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6972.00, 6909.20, 6747.40, and 6567.00 respectively. The price changes were - 92.34, - 12.60, - 117.60, and - 136.60 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 500 index of - 1.31, - 0.18, - 1.71, and - 2.04. The trading volumes were 28764.00, 81712.00, 17991.00, and 6366.00 respectively, and the positions were 48948.00, 135493.00, 52568.00, and 6207.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 48948.00, 82817.00, - 87905.00, and - 47231.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7137.60, 7059.20, 6841.60, and 6637.40 respectively. The price changes were - 92.73, - 44.80, - 182.60, and - 170.60 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 1000 index of - 1.28, - 0.63, - 2.60, and - 2.51. The trading volumes were 44989.00, 143577.00, 28288.00, and 11429.00 respectively, and the positions were 71066.00, 189654.00, 82550.00, and 11067.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 71066.00, 112051.00, - 116798.00, and - 76204.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.00, - 1.60, - 62.80, and - 78.40 respectively, while the previous values were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index had a previous value of 4538.22, a previous two - day value of 4514.23, and a change rate of 0.53. The SSE 50 index had a previous value of 2974.86, a previous two - day value of 2967.77, and a change rate of 0.24. The CSI 500 index had a previous value of 7069.64, a previous two - day value of 7016.07, and a change rate of 0.76. The CSI 1000 index had a previous value of 7239.18, a previous two - day value of 7185.48, and a change rate of 0.75 [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the energy, industrial, optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, real estate and finance, information technology, and telecommunications industries had positive change rates of 1.98%, 0.93%, 0.99%, 0.15%, 0.15%, 0.98%, and 3.21% respectively, while the raw materials, major consumption, and public utilities industries had negative change rates of - 1.17%, - 0.48%, and - 0.05% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts**: The basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index had previous values of - 18.42, - 31.42, - 56.22, and - 91.02 respectively, and previous two - day values of 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the SSE 50 index had previous values of - 2.86, - 4.46, - 2.86, and - 5.06 respectively, and previous two - day values of 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 500 index had previous values of - 97.64, - 160.44, - 322.24, and - 502.64 respectively, and previous two - day values of 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 index had previous values of - 101.58, - 179.98, - 397.58, and - 601.78 respectively, and previous two - day values of 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous values of 3863.89, 12813.21, 7870.96, and 2993.45 respectively, previous two - day values of 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, and change rates of 0.63%, 0.98%, 0.71%, and 1.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index had previous values of 25858.83, 47582.15, 6735.13, and 24258.80 respectively, previous two - day values of 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, and change rates of 2.42%, - 1.44%, 1.07%, and 1.80% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China started on October 20 in Beijing. China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. The GDP in the first three quarters of China increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. The national fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the per - capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors. The housing prices in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPRs in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the work plan for stabilizing growth in the building materials industry. The transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 12% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. China's wind power installation targets were comprehensively raised. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, the production of raw coal decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, the production of crude oil increased by 4.1%, the production of natural gas increased by 9.4%, and the production of crude steel and pig iron reached new lows since December 2023 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The futures market capital in China reached a new high of about 2.02 trillion yuan on October 9, 2025, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift to value in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - Precious metals are strong in the long - term, but there may be adjustments after rapid increases. Copper prices may be supported in the long run due to supply - demand changes [3][18][19]. - The central bank is expected to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, and there may be reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and treasury bond trading operations [11][12]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, and their trends vary [2][3][13][14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News International News - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in related projects in the next 6 months, and the Pentagon will invest in a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [5]. Domestic News - China's LPR for October remained unchanged, with the 1 - year and 5 - year varieties at 3% and 3.5% respectively, and the central bank may implement a moderately loose monetary policy [6][11]. Industry News - The monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed on October 28, 21:00, and will be included in the tradable scope for qualified overseas investors [7]. 3.2 Foreign Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose, while ICE Brent crude oil fell. Other commodities also showed different price changes [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock index: After a high - level shock in September, it will enter a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be loose, and the market style may shift to value in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - Treasury bonds: They generally fell. The central bank may implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter, which will support treasury bond futures prices [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil: SC fell at night. The decline is due to geopolitical stability and the end of the demand peak. The reaction of OPEC in November is crucial [13]. - Methanol: It fell at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the inventory of coastal methanol increased [14]. - Rubber: After continuous declines, it is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the supply pressure may gradually appear [15]. - Polyolefins: The futures continued to be weak, and the price was affected by crude oil and inventory digestion [16]. - Glass and soda ash: Both futures continued to be weak, and they are in the process of inventory digestion [17]. Metals - Precious metals: Gold and silver continued to be strong, but the upward trend at high levels slowed down. There may be adjustments after rapid increases [3][18]. - Copper: The price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [19]. - Zinc: The price rose at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates increased, and the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one [20]. - Lithium carbonate: The supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term [21]. Black Metals - Coking coal and coke: The night - session trend was weak. The high iron - water production supports the demand, but there is a risk of blast furnace production cuts [22][23]. - Iron ore: The price was weak, but the demand is supported by strong steel production. The global iron ore shipment decreased, and the port inventory decreased rapidly [24]. - Steel: The price was stable and improving. The supply pressure is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant [25]. Agricultural Products - Protein meal: The price of soybean and rapeseed meal rose at night. The US soybean crushing data exceeded expectations, but the domestic supply is sufficient [26]. - Oils and fats: The price of rapeseed and palm oil fell at night, while soybean oil rose. The export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market is affected by the Sino - US trade situation [27]. - Sugar: The price of Zhengzhou sugar rose at the end of the night session. The global sugar market is in a stocking phase, and the domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate [28]. - Cotton: The price of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated. The US cotton picking is progressing, and the domestic cotton price lacks upward momentum [29][30]. Shipping Index - Container shipping to Europe: EC fluctuated. The SCFIS European line rebounded after 13 weeks of decline. The market is in a game for the year - end peak season, and it is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations in the short term [31].

研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 20251021申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 跟随铜价走势 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。中美贸易对峙后，市场情绪逐步 | | | | 企稳。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。短期锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 | | | | 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速趋 | 跟随铜价走 | | 锌 | 缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。由于国内外库存状 | 势 | | | 况迥异，国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, and may initiate treasury bond trading operations. Market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of treasury bond futures. The current external environment is more complex and severe, with increasing trade barriers. The domestic demand side, represented by real estate, remains weak. The State Council has stated that it will intensify counter - cyclical adjustments to expand domestic demand and strengthen the domestic economic cycle [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2512 contract fell by 0.17%. The TS2512 contract closed at 102.334, down 0.044 or 0.04% from the previous day; the TF2512 contract closed at 105.655, down 0.125 or 0.12%; the T2512 contract closed at 108.110, down 0.185 or 0.17%; the TL2512 contract closed at 115.3, down 0.570 or 0.49% [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of the T2512 contract decreased by 5009, while the open interest of the T2603 contract increased by 852. The trading volume of the T2512 contract was 76613, and that of the T2603 contract was 6483 [2]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: The inter - delivery spread of TS2512 - TS2603 was 0.080 (previous value 0.088), TF2512 - TF2603 was 0.075 (previous value 0.0850), T2512 - T2603 was 0.300 (previous value 0.3150), and TL2512 - TL2603 was 0.280 (previous value 0.3000) [2]. - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate increased by 0.3bp, the DR007 rate increased by 0.55bp, and the GC007 rate decreased by 0.9bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term treasury bond yields generally increased. The 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 2.58bp to 1.85%. The yield spread between 10 - year and 2 - year treasury bonds was 31.66bp [2]. - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The US 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, the German 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 4bp, and the Japanese 10Y treasury bond yield increased by 3.8bp [2]. 3.3 Macro and Industry Information - **Macroeconomic Data**: In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was better than expected, while the consumption growth rate declined, and the investment growth rate turned negative. The year - on - year decline rates of real estate investment and sales widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to decline month - on - month [3]. - **Policy Information**: The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan in open market operations. The LPR quotes this month remained unchanged. The State Council stated that it will intensify counter - cyclical adjustments to expand domestic demand [3]. - **International News**: The US president continued to send conciliatory signals, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment eased. The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months [3].

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至10月18日，巴西大豆播种率为21.7%，上周 | | --- | --- | | | 为11.1%，去年同期为17.6%，五年均值为27.7%。2、美国农业部数据显示，截至2025年10月16日 | | 行业 | 当周，美国大豆出口检验量为1474354吨，前一周修正后为1017172吨，初值为994008吨。2024年 | | 信息 | 10月17日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为2549979吨。本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为 | | | 5537802吨，上一年度同期8013348吨。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨。美国压榨数据表现超预期，减轻了市场对于美豆需求的担忧。根 | | | 据NOPA数据显示，9月份大豆压榨量1.97亿蒲，环比增加4.24%，同比增加11.6%，并创下有记录 | | | 以来的第四个月度高点，也是历史同期最高纪录，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，场关 | | | 注10月末APEC中美两国元首会面情况，国内供应充足使得短期连粕上方仍面临较大压力。 | | | 油脂：夜盘菜棕油震荡收跌，豆油震荡收 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold has become the dominant long - term narrative as the ultimate safe - haven asset, with its rising speed and intensity increasing due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, global confrontation, and central banks' continuous gold purchases. Silver's spot supply - demand contradiction is further highlighted, but after a rapid rise, there may be adjustments and increased volatility [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures, the prices of沪金2606,沪金2512,沪银2606, and沪银2512 all increased, with涨跌幅 of 2.86%, 2.91%, 1.93%, and 1.97% respectively. In the现货 market, the prices of London gold and London silver increased, while the prices of Shanghai gold T + D and Shanghai silver T + D decreased [2]. - **Positions and Volumes**: The持仓量 of沪金2606 is 22,015, and that of沪金2512 is 207,916; the持仓量 of沪银2606 is 27,319, and that of沪银2512 is 432,663. The成交量 of沪金2606 is 15,617, and that of沪金2512 is 728,228; the成交量 of沪银2606 is 33,301, and that of沪银2512 is 2,455,760 [2]. - **Spot Premiums**: The现货升贴水 of沪金2606 is - 31.30, that of沪金2512 is - 24.88, that of沪银2606 is - 238.00, and that of沪银2512 is - 194.00 [2]. Inventory - The上期所 gold inventory remains unchanged at 84,606 kg, while the上期所 silver inventory decreased by 64,253.00 kg. The COMEX gold inventory decreased by 75,206.36, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 2,991,703 [2]. Related Market Indicators - The美元指数 increased by 0.07%, the标准普尔指数 increased by 1.07%, the美债 yield decreased by 0.50%, the布伦特原油 price decreased by 0.01%, and the美元兑人民币 exchange rate decreased by 0.04% [2]. Derivatives - The spdr gold ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the SLV白银ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons, the CFTC投机者净持仓 of silver increased by 481, and the CFTC投机者净持仓 of gold decreased by 1,451 [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US and China are about to return to the negotiation table. The US listed rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as issues to be raised with China. China advocates resolving issues through negotiation on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [3]. - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in critical mineral projects in the next six months, with an estimated recoverable resource value of $53 billion. The Pentagon will invest in building a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [3]. - The White House National Economic Council Director said that the government shutdown may end this week, and if not, stronger measures may be taken [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The weakness in polyolefin prices was due to both the drag of crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. With the continuation of the China - US game, crude oil was under pressure and cost support weakened. In the short term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuated passively following the cost side, and market sentiment was cautious. However, after consecutive declines in chemicals, the decline rate might slow down [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For linear LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6879, 6921, and 6952 respectively, with increases of 5, 14, and 21 compared to the day before, and corresponding increases of 0.07%, 0.20%, and 0.30%. For拉丝 PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6565, 6618, and 6650 respectively, with increases of 14, 15, and 17, and corresponding increases of 0.21%, 0.23%, and 0.26% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of linear LL for January, May, and September contracts were 218340, 20698, and 263 respectively, and the open interests were 562100, 61495, and 830 respectively, with changes of - 3312, - 750, and - 33. The trading volumes of拉丝 PP for January, May, and September contracts were 257663, 22344, and 831 respectively, and the open interests were 654849, 119507, and 4521 respectively, with changes of - 6902, 1181, and 333 [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 42, - 31, and 73 respectively, compared to previous values of - 33, - 24, and 57. For拉丝 PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 53, - 32, and 85 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 30, and 82 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2269 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 523 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, with some price changes compared to the previous values [2] - **Mid - Stream Spot**: The spot price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7100 - 7550 yuan/ton respectively. The spot price ranges of拉丝 PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Monday (October 20, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.52 per barrel, down $0.02 or 0.03% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.35 - $57.81. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.01 per barrel, down $0.28 or 0.46% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.07 - $61.55 [2]

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is expected to focus on reform in areas such as building a modern industrial system, a unified national market, and improving social security. There may be further emphasis on green development, and attention is paid to whether a GDP growth target will be set [1]. - The stock index is entering a direction - selection phase. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds may flow in. The market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter and become more balanced [2][10]. - Precious metals are strengthening due to factors like trade tensions, potential Fed policy changes, and deteriorating US fiscal conditions. However, there may be adjustments after rapid rises [3][19]. - For oils and fats, palm oil exports are growing, providing some price support, but the market may be pressured by macro - disturbances [3][28]. Section Summaries I. General Situation and Outlook - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to be released around October 28. The macro - economy shows positive trends in exports, CPI, and PPI. There are weather and climate phenomena such as cold snaps and a possible La Nina event [1]. II. Key Varieties - **Stock Index**: After a high - level shock in September, it's in a direction - selection phase. Domestic and external funds may flow in, and the market style may shift in the fourth quarter [2][10]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are rising. Factors include trade tensions, Fed policy hints, and US government issues. There are risks of adjustments [3][19]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production and exports are increasing, but the market may be affected by macro - factors [3][28]. III. Daily News - **International News**: Trump is signaling trade relaxation, and the US may face a "tariff refund" situation if it loses a court case [5]. - **Domestic News**: The China Shipowners' Association has deepened cooperation with international shipping institutions [6]. - **Industry News**: India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October [7]. IV. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500, ICE Brent crude, and the US dollar index rose, while the FTSE China A50 futures, London gold, and London silver declined [9]. V. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Similar to the key variety analysis, it's in a direction - selection phase with potential fund inflows and a possible style shift [2][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The price is supported by a loose monetary policy environment. The Fed may cut interest rates, and the domestic economy has positive and negative factors. The central bank may continue with a loose policy [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemicals** - **Crude Oil**: The price decline is due to geopolitical stability and reduced demand. OPEC's actions in November are crucial for the price trend [13]. - **Methanol**: The开工 rate of related devices is decreasing, and inventory is rising. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, but weather and trade negotiations can affect the price [15]. - **Polyolefins**: The price is affected by crude oil and market sentiment, with a possible slowdown in the decline [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The inventory of glass is increasing, and that of soda ash is slightly decreasing. The market is cautious, and consumption and policies are key factors [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: The same as the key variety analysis, with growth and adjustment risks [3][19]. - **Copper**: The supply of concentrates is tight, and the demand varies by industry. The Indonesia mine accident may support the price [20]. - **Zinc**: The processing fee is rising, and the price may follow copper. The domestic price may be weaker than the international one [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, with limited fluctuations [22]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price is strong in the short - term but may face a high - level shock. The steel - making profit and production are key factors [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand is supported by steel production, and the supply has decreased. The price is expected to be strong [25]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The export is mixed. The market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with a mid - term bullish view [26]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The US soybean crushing data is positive, but the domestic supply is sufficient, putting pressure on the price [27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key variety analysis, with palm oil exports supporting the price and macro - factors causing pressure [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is under supply pressure [29]. - **Cotton**: The US market is affected by the government shutdown, and the domestic market has a production increase expectation and weak downstream demand [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market is in a game for the year - end peak season. The price is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and the far - month price is related to the Israel - Palestine negotiation [31].

2025年10月20日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.378 | 102.290 | 105.780 | 105.695 | 108.295 | 107.980 | 115.87 | 115.57 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.362 | 102.274 | 105.705 | 105.600 | 108.165 | 107.870 | 114.96 | 114.68 | | | 涨跌 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.075 | 0.095 | 0.130 ...