20251210申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6557 | 6610 | 6656 | 6192 | 6280 | 6322 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 涨跌 | 6643 -86 | 6708 -98 | 6754 -98 | 6275 -83 | 6370 -90 | 6409 -87 | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.29% | -1.46% | -1.45% | -1.32% | -1.41% | -1.36% | | | 成交量 | 228488 | 193612 | 2327 | 245848 | 139975 | 3064 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time with internal disagreements, and officials may hint at a pause later. The market has highly priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, but Kevin Hassett believes there is still much room for rate cuts [1]. - In December 2025, the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Central Economic Work Conference will affect the rhythm of the A - share market in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and investment themes in 2026. Before the policies are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the positive policy signals resonate with the Fed's rate cuts, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - For various futures varieties, different trends and influencing factors are analyzed, and corresponding investment outlooks are provided, such as the long - term upward trend of precious metals and the short - term weakening trend of some energy and chemical products [12][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Varieties - **Treasury Bonds**: Generally rising, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.83%. Market liquidity is stable, but there are concerns about global liquidity tightening. The long - term Treasury bond futures price remains weak due to factors such as the suspension of 5 - year fixed deposits in banks and the new fund sales regulations [2][10]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and rapeseed oils were weak at night, while palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil exports slowed down, and production decreased. The expected inventory build - up in November may limit the upside of palm oil. The arrival of imported Australian rapeseed may suppress rapeseed oil prices [3][28]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it still shows high growth overall. The supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to supply disruptions [3][18]. 3.2 Daily News Focus 3.2.1 International News - Chinese and US officials met to promote Sino - US economic and trade cooperation. China welcomes more US companies to invest in China, and the US side is willing to play a bridging role [6]. 3.2.2 Domestic News - China successfully launched the Remote Sensing Satellite 47 and the Satellite Internet Low - Earth Orbit Group 15 satellites on December 9 [6]. 3.2.3 Industry News - Multiple provinces have released the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions, proposing to accelerate the construction of a new real - estate development model and improve the housing supply system [7][8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market was mixed. Before the policies of the two important meetings are determined, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and after the policies are clear, market risk appetite may increase [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The situation is similar to the key varieties section, with long - term bond futures remaining weak [10][11]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil fell 1.31% at night. The European conflict and the US oil production forecast are the main influencing factors, and the downward trend remains [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.45% at night. The start - up rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and coastal methanol inventories decreased, but the overall inventory is still high. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply is entering the off - season. The demand for all - steel tires is stable. The price is expected to be volatile in a wide range [14]. - **Polyolefins**: The polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the market sentiment is affected by crude oil and the overall commodity market. It is expected to maintain a low - level volatile trend [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures mainly declined. Their inventories decreased, and the market is cautious. The focus of trading is shifting to the May contract [16]. 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver reached a new high, and gold fluctuated slightly. Weak employment data strengthened the expectation of a rate cut in December. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged [17]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, the price closed lower at night, with tight concentrate supply and a potential supply - demand deficit [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower. The concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum fell 0.7% at night. Due to the approaching Fed meeting and uncertainty about future rate - cut paths, the price corrected. In the long term, it is supported by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply and demand situation is complex. In the short term, the supply is affected by production resumption, and the price is risky to chase up. In the long term, it can be considered from a bullish perspective after a correction [21][22]. 3.3.4 Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session trading was volatile. Steel mill profits are low, and iron - water production may decrease, which is negative for the demand for coking coal and coke. However, strong policy expectations in December may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron - ore price slightly declined. Shipping increased slightly, and port inventories increased slightly. Steel mills' profitability is low, and they will continue to purchase on demand. The price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price fluctuated. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but macro - expectations are positive, so there is some short - term upward momentum, but the medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Soybean and rapeseed meal were weak at night. Brazilian soybean sowing progress has accelerated, and US soybean exports are slow. The domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, putting pressure on prices [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Similar to the key varieties section, soybean and rapeseed oils were weak, and palm oil rose slightly. Palm oil inventory build - up and the arrival of Australian rapeseed are the main influencing factors [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures were volatile and are expected to be weak in the short term. International and domestic factors such as Brazilian sugar production and Chinese sugar supply affect the price [29]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures were volatile and are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term. Domestic supply is sufficient, and downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but there is also hedging pressure [30]. 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 1.17%. The demand in mid - December is okay, and the price is expected to be volatile. The 04 contract may decline due to supply - surplus and potential resumption of Red Sea shipping [31].

20251209申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求转向缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼产量 | | | 和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。中钢 协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增 | | | 长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建议关 | | | 注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | (美元/吨） | （美元/吨） ...

| 1、央行公告称，12月8日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1223亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1223 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 亿元，中标量1223亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1076亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放147亿元。 | | | | 2、中共中央政治局召开会议，分析研究2026年经济工作。会议强调，明年经济工作要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，继续 | | 实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 | | 度，切实提升宏观经济治理效能。要坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能；坚持 | | | | 改革攻坚，增强高质量发展动力活力；坚持对外开放，推动多领域合作共赢；坚持协调发展，促进城乡融合和区域联 | | 动；坚持"双碳"引领，推动全面绿色转型；坚持民生为大，努力为人民群众多办实事；坚持守牢底线，积极稳妥化 | | 解重点领域风险。 | | | | 3、12月3日，中共中央在中南海召开党外人士座谈会，就今年经济形势和明年经济工作听取各民主党派中央、全国工 | | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/9 星期二 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 4574.40 | 4557.00 | 4535.80 | 4487.80 | | 前日收盘价 4613.20 | 4597.40 | 4576.00 | 4529.00 | | 涨跌 35.00 沪深300 | 38.20 | 36.40 | 37.40 | | 涨跌幅 0.76 | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.83 | | 成交量 76082.00 | 7171.00 | 31206.00 | 6069.00 | | 持仓量 1328 ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8230 | 8706 | 9502 | 2778 | 2395 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -36 | -64 | -116 | -43 | -2 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.44% | -0.73% | -3.15% | -1.52% | -0.08% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 | 现值 | -278 | -160 | -102 | -594 | 1448 | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report analyzes the economic situation and market trends of various commodities. It points out that China will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, aiming to promote stable economic development and improve quality and efficiency. The market trends of different commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply - demand relationships, international policies, and macro - economic indicators [1][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded to the Japanese Prime Minister's remarks on Taiwan, emphasizing that Asian neighbors and the international community should remain vigilant and urging Japan to reflect on its actions [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, and highlighting the importance of people's livelihood and economic planning [6]. - **Industry News**: From January to November, the sales revenue of the mobile communication equipment retail industry and the household appliance retail industry increased by 20.3% and 26.5% respectively year - on - year, and the sales revenue of new energy passenger cars increased by 19.1% year - on - year [6]. II. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.35%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.87%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 2.16%, and LME copper increased by 0.09% on December 8 compared with December 7 [7]. III. Morning Comments on Major Commodities - **Financial Commodities** - **Stock Index**: Before the policies of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference are officially announced, the stock market is expected to be volatile, and funds may be more cautious. After the policies are clear, market risk appetite is expected to increase [8]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The long - term Treasury bond futures prices remain weak due to factors such as the expected increase in policy introduction, the reduction of demand for long - term Treasury bonds, and the impact of new fund sales regulations [2][9][10]. - **Energy and Chemical Commodities** - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is difficult to reverse. The US labor market shows signs of stagnation, and the sanctions on Russian oil companies may have only a short - term impact on supply [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol is expected to be weak in the short term. The domestic methanol plant operating rate has increased, and the coastal inventory has decreased, but it is still at a high level [12]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weak, and demand supports the stable operation of the all - steel tire industry [13]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins are in a low - level oscillation process. The downstream demand is stable, but market sentiment is affected by the weakness of crude oil and other commodities [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market is cautious. The adjustment effect of the glass supply side needs time, and the supply - demand digestion pressure of soda ash increases [15][16]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Although precious metals are weakly volatile in the short term, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged due to factors such as the weakening of the US dollar and central bank gold purchases [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mining supply disruptions [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed lower at night. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but market sentiment needs to be concerned [19]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term aluminum price may face a correction. The long - term supply limitation and low inventory support the aluminum price, and the medium - to - long - term outlook is optimistic [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current price of lithium carbonate has a high risk of chasing up. In the long term, it is recommended to take a bullish approach after a correction [21][22]. - **Black Commodities** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The demand for coking coal and coke is affected by the expected reduction in iron - making production, but policy expectations may provide upward momentum [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term. The market shows an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, but the low inventory level of steel mills and the obvious discount of the futures price support the price [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, but the positive macro - expectations and the stability of raw material prices support the price [25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The protein meal is expected to be weak. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is accelerating, and the domestic supply expectation is sufficient, which puts pressure on the price [26][27]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats are running weakly. The palm oil production recovery is lower than expected, but inventory accumulation may limit the upside. The arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply shortage expectation of rapeseed oil [3][28]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The international sugar price is affected by the production and export situation of Brazil and India, while the domestic supply pressure is increasing seasonally [29]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand and macro - sentiment support the price, but the upside space may be limited [30]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract of container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline further. The market is affected by factors such as the supply - demand relationship and the potential resumption of shipping in the Red Sea [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot market, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec remained stable, while those from PetroChina were partially reduced by 100 yuan. For drawn PP, the prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins themselves is at a low level, and after the current rebound, they generally maintain a low-level oscillation process [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6643 yuan, 6708 yuan, and 6754 yuan respectively, with declines of -31 yuan, -34 yuan, and -34 yuan, and decreases of -0.46%, -0.50%, and -0.50% respectively. The trading volumes were 234,875, 153,809, and 1,942 respectively, and the open interests were 374,193, 315,983, and 5,089 respectively, with changes of -19,347, +21,166, and +386 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -65 yuan, -46 yuan, and 111 yuan respectively [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6275 yuan, 6370 yuan, and 6409 yuan respectively, with declines of -12 yuan, -12 yuan, and -11 yuan, and decreases of -0.19%, -0.19%, and -0.17% respectively. The trading volumes were 299,256, 139,493, and 2,275 respectively, and the open interests were 423,064, 319,140, and 17,920 respectively, with changes of -11,444, +12,252, and +124 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -95 yuan, -39 yuan, and 134 yuan respectively [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2093 yuan/ton, 6100 yuan/ton, 589 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6083 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 7150 yuan, 6600 - 6900 yuan, and 6750 - 7100 yuan respectively. The current price ranges of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6200 - 6350 yuan, 6100 - 6250 yuan, and 6200 - 6450 yuan respectively [2]. News - On Monday (December 8), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.88 per barrel, down $1.20 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.00%, with a trading range of $58.68 - $60.30. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.49 per barrel, down $1.26 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 1.98%, with a trading range of $62.34 - $63.96 [2].

20251208申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 453.7 | 454.8 | 60.14 | 59.83 | 63.37 | 62.96 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 452.6 | 453.9 | 59.70 | 59.36 | 62.75 | 62.35 | | | 涨跌 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.61 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.24% | 0.20% | 0.74% | 0.79% | 0.99% | 0.98% | | | 成交量 | 66,825 | 19,066 | 240,924 | 141,512 | 218,464 | ...

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 资本市场加深改革稳固慢牛基础 2025 年 12 月 6 日，《基金管理公司绩效考核管理指引（征求意见稿）》下发。 作为公募基金行业发展进入高质量转型阶段的重要制度安排，《指引》从薪酬结 构、绩效考核、支付机制、问责制度等多个维度作出系统性规定，明确提出"坚 持基金份额持有人利益优先"的基本原则，通过一系列量化指标和刚性约束，引 导基金管理公司将员工激励与基金长期业绩深度绑定。 1）国际新闻 12 月 5 日晚，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国 财政部长贝森特和贸易代表格里尔举行视频通话，双方围绕落实好中美两国元首 釜山会晤和 11 月 24 日通话重要共识，就下一步开展务实合作和妥善解决经贸领 域彼此关切，进行了深入、建设性的交流。双方积极评价中美吉隆坡经贸磋商成 果执行情况，表示要在两国元首战略引领下，继续发挥好中美经贸磋商机制作用， 不断拉长合作清单、压缩问题清单，推动中美经贸关系持续稳定向好。(新华 社) 重点品种：股指，原油，铜 股指：美国三大指数小幅上涨，上一交易日股指明显上涨，非银金融板块领涨， 银 ...