Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Gold and silver are oscillating, and the market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. Last week's unexpectedly high US inflation data pressured gold and silver, while positive signals from recent US - Russia negotiations eased geopolitical risks. The July non - farm payrolls data was below expectations and the previous value was significantly revised down. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but there are divided views within the Fed, and Trump's personnel appointments affect market expectations. Trade negotiations have made progress in multiple aspects, but the overall trade environment is still deteriorating. The "Big and Beautiful" bill has increased the expectation of the US fiscal deficit. The continuous increase in gold holdings by the People's Bank of China provides long - term support for gold, but gold is hesitant to rise at current high prices. Overall, gold and silver may show an oscillating trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts intensifies [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 776.08 and 778.06 respectively, with daily changes of 0.96 and 0, and daily change rates of 0.12% and 0.00%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9233.00 and 9253.00 respectively, with daily changes of 71.00 and 69.00, and daily change rates of 0.77% and 0.75% [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 183215 and 133322 respectively, and the trading volumes are 128755 and 23298 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 307098 and 228190 respectively, and the trading volumes are 311338 and 67972 respectively [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are - 4.42 and - 6.40 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 89.00 and - 109.00 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.66 and 770.79 respectively, with daily changes of 1.83 and - 1.59, and daily change rates of 0.24% and - 0.21%. The previous day's closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3338.935, with a daily change of - 8.4 and a daily change rate of - 0.25%. The previous day's closing prices of Shanghai Silver T + D and London Silver were 9144.00 and 38.12 respectively, with daily changes of 122.00 and 0.27, and daily change rates of 1.35% and 0.70% [2] - **Price Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510,沪银2512 - 沪银2510, gold/silver (spot), Shanghai Gold/London Gold, and Shanghai Silver/London Silver are 1.98, 20, 84.39, 7.19, and 7.46 respectively, compared with previous values of 2.08, 22, 85.33, 7.15, and 7.41 [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The current inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 36,642 kg and 1,115,055 kg respectively, with changes of 60.00 kg and - 25,144.00 kg compared to the previous values. The current inventories of COMEX gold and silver are 38,573,764 and 508,499,193 respectively, with a change of 9,952.03 for COMEX gold and 0 for COMEX silver [2] Related Assets - **Values and Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 98.6526, 6370.17, 4.33, 67.67, and 7.1833 respectively, with changes of 0.42%, - 0.40%, 0.93%, 0.01%, and 0.03% compared to the previous values [2] Derivatives - **Holdings and Changes**: The current holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF are 44315 tons each, with an increase of 1.00 ton compared to the previous values. The current net positions of CFTC speculators in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 compared to the previous values [2] Macroeconomic Information - **Trade Agreement**: The EU and the US issued a joint statement detailing a new trade agreement reached in July. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods such as automobiles, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and timber. The EU promised to cancel tariffs on US industrial products, provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products, and plans to purchase $750 billion worth of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion worth of US artificial intelligence chips by 2028 [3] - **Renewable Energy Stance**: US President Trump criticized renewable energy as a "century - long scam". Even though the electricity demand in some US regions significantly exceeds supply, the US government will not approve new wind or photovoltaic projects. Trump blames the rising electricity prices in the US on renewable energy [3] - **PMI Data**: The preliminary US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The service industry PMI slightly dropped to 55.4, but the significant rebound in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI to a 9 - month high of 55.4 [3] - **Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [3] - **Real Estate Data**: The National Association of Realtors in the US stated that the annualized sales of second - hand homes in July increased by 2% to 4.01 million units, higher than the market expectation of 3.92 million units. The median price of second - hand homes increased by 0.2% year - on - year, the slowest increase in two years [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's monetary policy continues the loose approach, which supports short - term Treasury bond futures prices. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect will continue, with bond funds and deposits from residents and enterprises potentially flowing to non - bank sectors with higher returns, suppressing the bond market sentiment. Treasury bond futures prices may continue to weaken, and the cross - variety spread may also widen due to the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2509 contract rose 0.13%, and the TL2512 contract had the highest increase of 0.49%. The trading volume of most contracts was relatively large, and the open interest of some contracts changed significantly, such as a decrease of 7131 in the TS2509 contract and an increase of 10400 in the TL2512 contract [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Short - term Market Interest Rates - Short - term market interest rates generally declined on the previous trading day. SHIBOR7 - day rate dropped 3.9bp, DR007 rate dropped 4.19bp, and GC007 rate dropped 10.6bp [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Bonds**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield dropped 1.53bp to 1.77%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 34.72bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bonds**: Yields of key - term overseas Treasury bonds showed different trends. US Treasury bond yields generally rose, with the 10Y US Treasury bond yield rising 4bp. German 10Y and Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yields remained unchanged [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operation**: On August 21, the central bank conducted 2530 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 1243 billion yuan after 1287 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [3]. - **PPP Project Financing**: About 70% of PPP存量 projects have entered the operation period. There is room for reasonable interest rate cuts and extensions of loans for these projects, and financial institutions are encouraged to negotiate with social capital parties [3]. - **New Policy Financial Tools**: Since May this year, many places have held policy briefings or project preparation meetings for new policy - based financial tools with a capital scale of 5000 billion yuan, targeting emerging industries and infrastructure [3]. - **Real Estate Market**: As of August 2025, 20 troubled real - estate enterprises have had their debt restructuring and reorganization approved, with a total debt resolution scale exceeding 12000 billion yuan. Many listed enterprises have divested real - estate development business [3]. - **International Trade**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU also plans to purchase large - scale US energy and AI chips [3]. - **US Economic Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 110,000 to 235,000, reaching a new high since June. The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI reached a new high since May 2022 [3]. Industry Information - **Interest Rate Changes**: On August 21, most money - market interest rates in China declined, while US Treasury bond yields rose across the board [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The 10 - year Treasury bond yield in China declined. The central bank's net investment, stable capital supply, and stable LPR quotes supported the short - term bond market. However, the stock - bond seesaw effect and other factors may lead to a weakening of Treasury bond futures prices [3].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed weak fluctuations. Pro farmer field surveys indicated good growth of US soybeans, strengthening expectations of high yields for the new season. However, due to the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report, there is strong support at the bottom. Dalian meal will mainly fluctuate in a short - term range, and its price is expected to remain firm under the support of import costs [2] - Oils: Night trading of oils closed up. High - frequency data showed an increase in Malaysian palm oil production and exports in August. The sharp increase in August exports boosted palm oil prices. Concerns about Indonesia's inability to meet production recovery expectations and the strict implementation of Indonesia's DMO policy also provided support. But there is a risk of a short - term decline due to US biodiesel news and profit - taking [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8394 for soybean oil, 9500 for palm oil, 9791 for rapeseed oil, 3113 for soybean meal, 2610 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were - 20, - 54, - 37, - 47, - 57, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.24%, - 0.57%, - 3.15%, - 1.49%, - 2.14%, and 0.29% [1] - **Spreads and Ratios**: Spreads such as Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, etc., and ratios like M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, etc., showed different values compared to the previous values [1] International Futures - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4423 for BMD palm oil, 1036 for CBOT soybeans, 51 for CBOT US soybean oil, and 297 for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were - 25, 20, 2, and - 3 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.56%, 1.88%, 4.59%, and - 1.08% [1] Spot Market Domestic Spot - **Prices and Changes**: Spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions showed different percentage changes. For example, the prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil were 8570 and 8690 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.12% and 0.12% [1] - **Basis and Spreads**: Spot basis and spreads between different products, such as the basis of various oils and meals and the spreads between soybean oil and palm oil, showed different values compared to the previous values [1] Import and Profit - Import profits of different sources of soybeans, palm oil, and rapeseed showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil was - 283, compared to - 242 previously [1] Warehouse Receipts - Warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts showed different values compared to the previous values. For example, the warehouse receipt of soybean oil was 15,310, the same as the previous value [1] Industry Information - Indonesia's palm oil inventory decreased by 13% month - on - month to 2.53 million tons at the end of June, despite increased production and accelerated exports. Exports in June reached 3.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 35.4% month - on - month [2] - From August 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield decreased by 2.12% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.46% month - on - month, and production increased by 0.3% month - on - month [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventory is slowly being digested, but short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate. The de - stocking process in summer is tortuous. Domestically, the macro - level is still driven by domestic demand, and terminal stocking demand may gradually pick up in mid - and late August. The market should focus on the autumn stocking rhythm after supply - demand digestion and possible changes in supply and cost [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - **LL Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7386, 7383, and 7331 respectively, with increases of 39 (0.53%), 43 (0.59%), and 23 (0.31%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 381879, 6260, and 52643 respectively, and the open interests were 386389, 21714, and 75937 respectively, with changes of +4826, +1249, and - 14155 [2]. - **PP Futures**: For the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month contracts, the previous day's closing prices were 7048, 7068, and 7016 respectively, with changes of - 8 (-0.11%), +6 (0.08%), and - 10 (-0.14%) compared to two days ago. The trading volumes were 252769, 12288, and 31224 respectively, and the open interests were 453181, 32678, and 54053 respectively, with changes of +10598, +837, and - 7840 [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the 1 - month to 5 - month, 5 - month to 9 - month, and 9 - month to 1 - month spreads were 3, 52, and - 55 respectively (previous values: 7, 32, - 39). For PP, the spreads were - 20, 52, and - 32 respectively (previous values: - 6, 36, - 30) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2428 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 571 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, Shandong propylene increased, while others remained stable [2]. - **Mid - stream Spot**: In the mid - stream spot market, the price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7150 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The price ranges of PP in these three markets were 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6850 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, remaining stable compared to the previous values [2]. Market News - On Thursday (August 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.52 per barrel, up $0.81 (1.29%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.52 - $63.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.67 per barrel, up $0.83 (1.24%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.74 - $67.80 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Chinese economy shows new resilience with the dual records of "trillion - kilowatt - hour electricity consumption and trillion - yuan trading volume". The policy combination is effective, and a positive cycle has been formed [1]. - The domestic stock market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + fund bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [2]. - Various commodities have different trends affected by factors such as supply and demand, geopolitics, and policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Chief Comment - A - share market major indices are rising, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index up 12.51%, 14.45%, and 21.19% respectively this year. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets frequently exceeds 2 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance is at a historical high [1]. - In July, the total social electricity consumption reached 1.0226 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 8.6%, doubling compared to a decade ago [1]. - China's foreign trade maintains a steady - to - improving trend, with the cumulative import and export growth rate rising month by month, achieving a 3.5% increase in the first seven months [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Equity Index**: The equity index shows differentiation. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. The external risks are gradually easing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices with more technology - growth components are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices with more dividend - blue - chip components are more defensive [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are in a volatile state. The market is waiting for signals from Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, and the overall trend of gold and silver may be volatile with the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts [3]. - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices continue to rise due to the decline in US crude oil inventories, strong oil demand, and the uncertainty of efforts to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The hurricane season in 2025 is relatively calm so far [3]. c. Main News Concerns - **International News**: The EU and the US announced details of a new trade agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods, while the EU will cancel tariffs on US industrial products and provide preferential market access for US seafood and agricultural products. The EU plans to purchase $750 billion of US liquefied natural gas, oil, and nuclear products and $40 billion of US AI chips by 2028 [5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council agreed in principle to the "Development Plan for the Open and Innovative Development of the Whole Biopharmaceutical Industry Chain in the China (Jiangsu) Free Trade Pilot Zone" [6]. - **Industry News**: In July, the total social electricity consumption exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time globally, with a significant increase in the proportion of new energy [7]. d. Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Equity Index**: The US three major indices fell. The domestic equity index shows differentiation, and the market trading volume is 2.46 trillion yuan. The market is in a favorable period, but investors need to pay attention to sector rotation [10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded after reaching the bottom. The central bank's monetary policy is loose, which supports short - term treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect may suppress the bond market, and the cross - variety spread may widen [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices continue to rise due to factors such as inventory decline and demand. The hurricane has not affected key oil and gas infrastructure. The number of initial jobless claims in the US increased, and the OPEC's production increase situation needs to be monitored [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. Coastal methanol inventories increased significantly, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [13]. - **Rubber**: The price of rubber is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand. The inventory is slowly being digested, and the terminal demand may pick up in mid - to - late August [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Similar to polyolefins, the market is driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market and supply - cost changes [17]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are volatile, waiting for signals from Powell's speech. The long - term drivers of gold still support the price, and the overall trend may be volatile [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as low concentrate processing fees and stable downstream demand [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices may fluctuate widely. The supply of concentrates has improved, and the smelting supply may recover [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is affected by sentiment. The supply is expected to increase slightly in August, and the demand is also expected to increase. The inventory situation is complex, and the price may have room to rise if the inventory is depleted [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [22]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The futures of coking coal and coke are in a wide - range volatile state, with intense long - short competition [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal are weakly volatile at night. The US soybean production is expected to be good, but the reduction in planting area provides support. The domestic market is expected to be range - bound [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats rose at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased in August, but there are risks of a short - term decline due to factors such as US biodiesel news [26]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are expected to be volatile as the global sugar market is about to enter the inventory - accumulation stage. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratios and low inventories, but import pressure may drag down prices [27]. - **Cotton**: US cotton prices fell. The domestic cotton market supply is relatively tight, but the demand is in the off - season. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside space [28]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index is weakly volatile. The freight rate has been decreasing, and the short - term decline may slow down. The high - volume capacity supply may increase the downward pressure on freight rates during the off - season [29].

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of low concentrate processing fees testing smelting output, stable - to - positive downstream demand in some sectors like power and automotive, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and improved concentrate supply this year, smelting supply may resume. Domestic automotive and infrastructure sectors show positive or stable growth, while home appliance output growth slows and real estate remains weak. Monitor US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. Summary by Category Price Performance - Copper had a night - session price increase, with a domestic previous - day futures closing price of 78,640 yuan/ton, a LME 3 - month closing price of 9,721 dollars/ton, and a LME spot - to - 3 - month spread of - 90.75 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,150 tons [2]. - Aluminum's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,570 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,577 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 2.28 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 479,525 tons [2]. - Zinc's night - session price rose. Its domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,786 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 9.33 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3,650 tons to 72,200 tons [2]. - Nickel's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 119,930 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 15,008 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 195.01 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,086 tons to 209,328 tons [2]. - Lead's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,725 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 1,982 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was - 39.48 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory increased by 22,475 tons to 282,950 tons [2]. - Tin's domestic previous - day futures closing price was 267,840 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 33,775 dollars/ton, and LME spot - to - 3 - month spread was 32.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons to 1,630 tons [2]. Market Conditions - For copper, domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry maintaining positive growth, automotive production and sales growing, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak [2]. - For zinc, domestic automotive production and sales are growing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. Concentrate supply has improved significantly this year, and smelting supply may recover [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On August 20, the central bank conducted 616 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net daily injection of 497.5 billion yuan. The new - period LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The central bank's monetary policy continues the loose thinking, which supports short - term Treasury bond futures prices, but the stock - bond seesaw effect will continue, and bond prices may continue to weaken. The cross - variety spread may also widen due to the resumption of VAT collection on government and financial bonds [3] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2509 contract fell 0.19%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] Short - term Market Interest Rates - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 1.7bp, DR007 rate rose 1.94bp, and GC007 rate rose 2.5bp [2] Spot Market - On the previous trading day, the yields of key - term Chinese Treasury bonds varied. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 1.7bp to 1.79%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 35.86bp [2] Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 4bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank carried out large - scale reverse repurchase operations, and the new - period LPR remained unchanged. The People's Bank of China Shanghai Head Office put forward work requirements. The State Council Office forwarded the guidance on standardizing PPP projects. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that most policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and the UK's inflation accelerated [3] Industry Information - On August 20, most money - market interest rates increased. US Treasury bond yields mostly declined. The bond market was affected by multiple factors such as macro - news, economic data, and central bank operations [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Pro Farmer's crop tour indicates that the expected corn yields in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 are higher than in 2024, and the average soybean pod numbers in Nebraska are higher while those in Indiana are lower than in 2024 [2] - Night trading of soybean and palm oil closed up, while rapeseed oil showed weak performance. The increase in August exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about Indonesia's production recovery and stricter DMO policy support palm oil prices, but short - term decline risks exist due to US biodiesel news [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Although the good growth of US soybeans strengthens the expectation of high yields, the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report provides strong support to US soybeans, and the price of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain firm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut futures were 8414, 9554, 9828, 3160, 2667, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 112, - 86, - 22, - 1, - 11, and 26, and percentage changes of - 1.31%, - 0.89%, - 3.15%, - 0.03%, - 0.41%, and 0.29% [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4448 (Ringgit/ton), 1033 (cents/bu), 52 (cents/lb), and 296 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of - 25, 2, - 0, and 1, and percentage changes of - 0.56%, 0.22%, - 0.83%, and 0.44% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8580 and 8680 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.72% and - 1.70%; the current prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9540 and 9510 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.05% and - 2.06%; the current prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9950 and 9880 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.90% and - 0.60% [1] - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 166, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 900 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 242, - 178, - 63, 231, 905, and 882 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 15,310, 1,420, 3,487, 10,925, 8,633, and 0 respectively, with some unchanged compared to the previous values [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy combination punches from the frontier to industries, from banks to the stock market, are gradually advancing, aiming to stabilize growth, promote transformation, and boost confidence, adding certainty to the full - year economic recovery [1]. - The current domestic market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the probability of the market trend continuing is high, but it is necessary to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [2][11]. - The overall situation of gold and silver may show a volatile trend as the expectation of interest rate cuts rises [3][19]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - Regional cooperation is further strengthened, and the financial toolbox is expanding. The capital market sentiment is warming up, and the policy combination is promoting economic recovery [1]. 2. Key Varieties Index Futures - The US three major indices mainly declined. The domestic market had a late - afternoon rally, with the beauty care sector leading the rise and the pharmaceutical and biological sector falling. The market turnover was 2.45 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased. In 2025, domestic liquidity will remain loose, and more incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year. External risks are gradually easing, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September is increasing. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 are more defensive [2][11]. Precious Metals - Last week's unexpected US inflation data pressured gold and silver. Positive signals from US - Russia negotiations reduced geopolitical risks. The employment market's weakness supported precious metal prices. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the long - term drivers of gold still provide support. Gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [3][19]. Crude Oil - SC night trading rose 0.95%. There was a multi - party meeting on the Ukraine issue. India's state - owned refiner continued to buy Russian crude oil. US commercial crude oil inventories decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. Future OPEC production increases should be monitored [4][5][13]. 3. Main News on the Day International News - The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, with only two opposing. There were differences among Fed officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation, but most thought the risk of rising inflation was higher than that of falling employment [6]. Domestic News - China's new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months. The 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above was 3.5%. This was in line with expectations as the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate, the basis for LPR pricing, did not change [7]. Industry News - The State Council General Office forwarded a Ministry of Finance document, stating that existing PPP projects should be promoted in a classified and hierarchical manner, with priority given to projects with certain returns [8]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily return data of various overseas market varieties on August 19 and 20, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and others, showing their price changes and percentage changes [9]. 5. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: Similar to the key varieties section, the market is in a favorable position, and different indices have different characteristics [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds generally fell. The central bank's open - market operations, LPR stability, and US economic data all had an impact. The bond market may continue to be weak due to factors such as the stock - bond seesaw effect and tax policies [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Similar to the key varieties section, pay attention to international events and inventory changes, as well as future OPEC production [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night trading rose. The domestic methanol device's operating load decreased slightly, and the coastal inventory increased. It is expected to be bullish in the short term [14][15]. - **Rubber**: The price is mainly supported by the supply side. The demand side is weak, and the short - term trend may continue to decline [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures closed up. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, with inventory slowly being digested. Pay attention to the autumn stocking market [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply is shrinking, but inventory is rising. Focus on the fundamental repair process [18]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the key varieties section, gold and silver may fluctuate as the interest - rate cut expectation rises [19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The concentrate processing fee is rising, and supply may recover. Zinc prices may fluctuate widely [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term trend is volatile. Supply is increasing, demand is also growing, and inventory changes are complex. There is a risk of correction, but there may be room for price increases if inventory decreases [23]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore demand is supported by strong steel production. Global iron ore shipments have decreased recently, and the mid - term supply - demand imbalance is a concern. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: Steel supply pressure is emerging, but inventory is decreasing. Exports are facing challenges, and the market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - trading of coking coal and coke was volatile. The steel demand is in the off - season, and the coking coal market is in a multi - empty game with a wide - range volatile trend [26][27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell at night. The good growth of US soybeans weakened the US soybean futures price, but the import cost supports the domestic market [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil rose at night, while rapeseed oil was weak. The increase in Malaysian palm oil exports and concerns about Indonesia's production support palm oil prices, but there is a risk of decline due to US biodiesel news [29]. - **Sugar**: International sugar is entering the inventory - accumulation stage, and the domestic market is supported by high sales rates and low inventories but may be dragged down by processed sugar. Both are expected to be volatile [30]. - **Cotton**: ICE US cotton fell. The domestic cotton supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be volatile and bullish with limited upside [31]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC contract fell. The shipping rate is decreasing, and the market is expected to be volatile, with the shipping rate expected to slow down in early September [32][33].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - In 2025, domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose and the market is in a policy window period. More incremental policies may be introduced in the second half of the year to boost the real economy. External risks are gradually easing, with a 90 - day extension of the suspension of Sino - US tariffs and an increased probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, which further enhances the attractiveness of RMB assets. The current market is in a resonance period of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", and the market trend is likely to continue, but investors need to adapt to accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indexes, which are dominated by technology - growth stocks, are more offensive with larger fluctuations but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indexes, which are dominated by dividend blue - chip stocks, are more defensive with smaller fluctuations but relatively weaker price elasticity [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different periods increased, with increases of 49.00, 46.80, 49.60, and 50.80 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 90137.00, and the open interest increased by 4297.00. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 4.80 to - 8.60 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different periods also rose, with increases of 30.40, 30.60, 29.60, and 29.00 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 45450.00, and the open interest of the current - month and next - month contracts increased, while that of the next - quarter and far - quarter contracts decreased. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from 0.20 to 0.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different periods increased significantly, with increases of 92.40, 98.00, 94.20, and 103.20 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 77339.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 43.40 to - 37.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different periods rose, with increases of 88.60, 93.60, 98.40, and 106.60 respectively. The trading volume of the current - month contract was 196109.00, and the open interest increased in all periods. The price - to - price spreads between the next - month and current - month contracts changed from - 50.80 to - 47.80 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The SSE 50 index increased by 1.23%, the CSI 300 index increased by 1.14%, the CSI 500 index increased by 1.09%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.86%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index showed different degrees of change [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the information technology industry had the highest increase of 2.51%, followed by optional consumption (1.36%), raw materials (1.35%), etc., while the public utilities industry had the lowest increase of 0.16% [1] 3.3 Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed. For example, the basis of the IF current - month contract relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 7.17 to - 1.40, and the basis of the IH current - month contract relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.98 to 4.21 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.89%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 1.38%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.17%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 1.51%, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.24%, and the DAX index decreased by 0.60% [1] 3.5 Macro Information - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced that child - rearing subsidies are exempt from personal income tax starting from January 1, 2025. The new LPR remained unchanged for three consecutive months, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. The Fed's July meeting minutes showed that almost all policymakers supported not cutting interest rates, and there were differences among officials regarding inflation, employment risks, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Premier Li Qiang emphasized promoting the quality improvement and upgrading of the biomedical industry, and the State Council General Office proposed a classified and hierarchical approach to implement existing PPP projects [2] 3.6 Industry Information - Some platform companies have reported basic information as required, and the tax department will conduct publicity, guidance, and interviews for those that have not. The State Administration for Market Regulation plans to introduce new regulations on anti - monopoly in the public utilities sector. Multiple rural banks in Zhejiang, Guizhou, Jilin and other places have lowered deposit interest rates by 10 - 20 basis points, while many banks have launched large - denomination certificate of deposit products with an annual interest rate of over 2%. In July, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, a 4.9% month - on - month and 10% year - on - year decrease, with the inventory level below the warning line but above the reasonable range [2]