Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [5] Core Views - Geopolitical and policy factors are influencing the oil price, which shows a strong upward trend. The negotiation between Iran and the US on the nuclear issue is in progress, and the Fed's interest - rate stance affects market expectations. The global grain consumption in the 2025/26 season is expected to increase, and the domestic futures market has mixed performance [1]. - Precious metals are in a rebound phase. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. Silver's high volatility suggests investors to wait and see. Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes in Kazakhstan. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase due to supply and demand factors [2][3]. - In the financial market, the stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival. The bond market is affected by factors such as the Fed's policy and domestic economic data, and the bond price is expected to stabilize [10][11]. - In the energy and chemical market, the supply and demand of various products such as crude oil, methanol, and rubber are affected by different factors, and their prices show different trends. In the metal market, precious metals, copper, zinc, aluminum, and lithium carbonate have different price trends and influencing factors. In the black market, the supply and demand of steel, iron ore, and coking coal are affected by the approaching Spring Festival and other factors. In the agricultural product market, the prices of protein meal, oil, sugar, cotton, and pork are affected by factors such as production, demand, and policies. In the shipping market, the container shipping European line is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival and will face verification after the festival [13][19][25][28][33]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Main News Focus International News - Elon Musk said that SpaceX has shifted its focus to building a "self - developing" city on the moon, which is expected to be achieved in less than 10 years. The plan to build a city on Mars will start in 5 - 7 years and is expected to take more than 20 years [6]. Domestic News - On the morning of February 9, President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance in building a modern socialist country [7]. Industry News - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form workers [8]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and FTSE China A50 futures all rose. The US dollar index fell. ICE Brent crude oil, London gold, London silver, LME aluminum, LME copper, and LME nickel all rose, while LME zinc fell. CBOT soybeans, CBOT wheat, and CBOT corn fell, while CBOT soybean oil rose [9]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, and the domestic stock index rebounded. In February, the market is expected to continue the upward trend, but there are potential overseas risks during the Spring Festival [10]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's open - market operations keep the money market loose. The Fed's policy and domestic economic data affect the bond market, and it is recommended to operate cautiously before the Spring Festival [11][12]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session price rose. The negotiation between Iran and the US is in progress, and Kazakhstan's oil export may decline [13]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night - session price fell. The domestic coal - to - olefin device's operating rate increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased slightly [14]. - **Natural Rubber**: The natural rubber price rebounded. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand supports the stable operation of all - steel tires. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro - factors [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures mainly fell. The supply and demand of glass and soda ash are gradually being repaired, and the market focuses on the real - estate and photovoltaic industries [17]. Metal - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals continued to rebound. Although affected by short - term factors, long - term support factors remain. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [21]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price rose at night. The domestic aluminum price is high, but the downstream demand is weak before the Spring Festival. However, long - term factors support the price [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after the volatility decreases [23][24]. Black - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke were weak at night. The demand for coking coal and coke is limited, but the downstream's pre - festival replenishment provides support [25]. - **Steel**: The steel supply decreased slightly, and the demand weakened. The inventory increased, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate weakly [26]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore shipping and arrival increased, and the port inventory increased. The steel mill's replenishment is coming to an end, and the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate weakly [27]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fell at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is in progress, and the domestic supply is expected to be sufficient, which may put pressure on the price [28]. - **Oil**: The oil prices were weak at night. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the inventory is expected to decline, but the crude oil price affects the palm oil price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [29]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar price was slightly stronger at night. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton price fluctuated within a range. The textile factory's replenishment is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the direct subsidy policy [31]. - **Pork**: The pork price fell. The supply pressure increased, and the demand could not fully digest it. The pig price is expected to be weakly stable [32]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping European Line**: The EC price fell. The spot freight rate is relatively stable before the Spring Festival, and it is expected to be volatile. After the Spring Festival, it will face the verification of the photovoltaic export rush and the implementation of the price increase letter [33][34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The stock index rebounded significantly in the previous trading session, with the communication sector leading the gains and the petroleum and petrochemical sector leading the losses. The market turnover was 2.27 trillion yuan. Looking forward to February, the overall situation is still expected to continue the phased improvement pattern. February is in the window period of the "Spring Market", coupled with the release of policy dividends at the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan", the profit expectations of the AI and overseas expansion main lines are clear. At the same time, the seasonal recovery of the consumer side and the implementation of investment projects will further enhance market confidence. However, with the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, there may be significant fluctuations in overseas capital markets during the holiday, especially geopolitical risks, and potential disturbances need to be vigilant [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 4722.60, 4721.20, 4691.20, and 4637.40 respectively, with increases of 64.80, 64.80, 64.20, and 61.20. The trading volumes were 17217.00, 51368.00, 16681.00, and 5251.00, and the open interests were 26451.00, 154559.00, 76883.00, and 30540.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -4885.00, -2093.00, 958.00, and 437.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 3083.60, 3084.00, 3079.00, and 3048.20 respectively, with increases of 39.60, 38.60, 35.60, and 36.40. The trading volumes were 8201.00, 26188.00, 4988.00, and 1960.00, and the open interests were 11631.00, 57290.00, 24315.00, and 10234.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -2132.00, -1831.00, -1101.00, and -583.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8322.00, 8311.60, 8215.20, and 8095.20 respectively, with increases of 133.00, 135.20, 133.80, and 121.60. The trading volumes were 22324.00, 76113.00, 28444.00, and 9988.00, and the open interests were 30709.00, 138576.00, 96339.00, and 41362.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -4656.00, -7513.00, 799.00, and -286.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next were 8256.00, 8232.60, 8063.20, and 7890.20 respectively, with increases of 173.60, 175.20, 173.40, and 169.20. The trading volumes were 28961.00, 112370.00, 31900.00, and 13607.00, and the open interests were 45633.00, 179169.00, 107292.00, and 57020.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were -6572.00, -8746.00, -2127.00, and 524.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were -1.40, 0.40, -10.40, and -23.40 respectively, compared with the previous values of -2.20, -0.80, -23.20, and -36.00 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 4719.06, 3081.78, 8311.28, and 8233.78 respectively, with increases of 1.63%, 1.45%, 2.02%, and 2.26%. The trading volumes (in billions of lots) were 207.25, 41.92, 211.67, and 282.85, and the total trading amounts (in billions of yuan) were 5227.57, 1357.22, 4279.82, and 4825.57 respectively [1] - **Industry Performance**: Different industries showed different growth rates. For example, the energy, raw materials, and industrial sectors had growth rates of 0.54%, 2.04%, and 1.76% respectively. The major consumer, medical and health, real - estate and finance, and information technology sectors had growth rates of 0.33%, 0.15%, 0.91%, and 2.69% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors had growth rates of 4.93% and 0.09% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF the quarter after next - CSI 300 were 3.54, 2.14, -27.86, and -81.66 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -3.80, -6.00, -33.40, and -83.80 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's values of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH the quarter after next - SSE 50 were 1.82, 2.22, -2.78, and -33.58 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -0.86, -1.66, -4.46, and -36.66 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's values of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC the quarter after next - CSI 500 were 10.72, 0.32, -96.08, and -216.08 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -5.81, -29.01, -130.81, and -246.41 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's values of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM the quarter after next - CSI 1000 were 22.22, -1.18, -170.58, and -343.58 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of -24.77, -60.77, -220.77, and -395.97 [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The previous day's values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 4123.09, 14208.44, 8594.83, and 3332.77 respectively, with increases of 1.41%, 2.17%, 1.74%, and 2.98% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The previous day's values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 27027.16, 56363.94, 6964.82, and 25014.87 respectively, with increases of 1.76%, 3.89%, 0.47%, and 1.19% [1] 5. Macro Information - President Xi Jinping inspected the National Information Technology Application Innovation Park in Beijing, emphasizing the importance of scientific and technological self - reliance and strength [2] - The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing Stock Exchanges announced a package of measures to optimize refinancing, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the technology innovation field [2] - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments extended the tax preferential policy for returned cross - border e - commerce export goods for two years until the end of 2027 [2] - Seven departments including the Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security conducted administrative guidance on 16 platform companies to protect the rights and interests of new - form employment workers [2] 6. Industry Information - The Ministry of Commerce held a symposium on automobile enterprises to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption [2] - Market supervision and other departments introduced new regulations to manage the transportation of liquid food [2] - Chongqing introduced a package of real - estate policies, including housing purchase subsidies for multi - child families [2] - The first Global Humanoid Robot Free Fighting League (URKL) was officially launched [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indices rose. The stock index rebounded significantly in the previous trading session. The communication sector led the gains, and the petroleum and petrochemical sector led the losses. The market turnover was 2.27 trillion yuan. In February, the overall situation is expected to continue the phased improvement pattern, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be vigilant [2]

| | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | | EC2602 | | 0.79 | 124 | 1437 | 1128 | 1278 | -150 | | | | | -99 | 8 | | | | | EC2604 | 1238 | -0.39 | 14384 | 31132 | 17381 | 21507 | -4126 | | | | | -15067 | -295 | | | | | EC2606 | 1553 | -0.03 | 2206 | 14726 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | -2694 | -86 | | | | | EC2608 | 1614.8 | 0.29 | 269 | 1414 | | | | | | | | -213 | 27 ...

研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 20260210申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨0.6%。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环 比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家 电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低0.2%。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿 供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量 长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼 | | | 延续增长。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增 | | | 产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 （元/吨） | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 （吨） | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6788 | 6721 | 6777 | 6628 | 6630 | 6661 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6866 | 6812 | 6864 | 6686 | 6691 | 6723 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -78 | -91 | -87 | -58 | -61 | -62 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -1.14% | -1.34% | -1.27% | -0.87% | -0.91% | -0.92% | | 场 | 成交量 | 41 | 327062 | 20012 | 149 | 252557 | 20389 | | | 持仓量 | ...

20260210申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 463.5 | 467.2 | 64.47 | 64.10 | 67.82 | 67.13 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 462.4 | 466.4 | 63.90 | 63.49 | 66.31 | 65.49 | | | 涨跌 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 1.51 | 1.64 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.24% | 0.17% | 0.89% | 0.96% | 2.28% | 2.50% | | | 成交量 | 97,941 | 76,182 | 354,331 | 166,807 | 475,717 | ...

| | 1、据巴西农业部下属的国家商品供应公司CONAB，截至2月8日，巴西大豆播种率为99.7%，上周为 | | --- | --- | | | 99.6%，去年同期为99.5%，五年均值为99.5%；巴西大豆收割率为17.4%，上周为11.2%，去年同 | | 行业 | 期为14.8%，五年均值为18.7%。2、布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所（BAGE）称，截至2月4日，阿根廷 | | 信息 | 2025/2026年度大豆播种工作全部结束3、截至2月6日当周，国内主要油厂大豆压榨量248万吨，为 | | | 历史次高水平，周环比上升19万吨 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收跌，根据CONAB数据截至1月31日，巴西大豆收割率为11.4%，上周为 | | | 6.6%，去年同期为8%，五年均值为11.8%。美方称中国对美豆的采购计划可能从已完成的1200万吨 | | | 提升至2000万吨，大幅提振美豆出口前景。但考虑到巴西收割工作现阶段持续进行，且巴西产量 | | | 预估继续上调，收割压力逐步加大使得美豆期价仍面临一定压力。国内方面，节后进口大豆拍卖 | | | 预计恢复，叠加国内豆粕的高库存以及远月供应 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 4.美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特在接受 CNBC 采访时就劳动力市场表示，应预期就业数据会 走低，但这不应引发恐慌。哈塞特认为，鉴于人口增长缓慢但生产率增长"飙升"，较低的就业数 据仍将与高 GDP 增长保持一致。哈塞特补充称，所谓的均衡就业增长率（即每月为保持失业率稳定 所需的就业增长幅度）"远低于"前总统乔·拜登执政时期的水平。哈塞特关于劳动力数据的评论 推动美国国债价格上扬。哈塞特还表示，GDP 增长"非常强劲"，预计到年底增长率将达到 4.0%， 全年整体增长率为 3.0%，并将去年第一季度的负增长归咎于拜登政府。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属延续反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席提名和资金踩踏两方面因素影响：1 月 30 日 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场以及缩表主张，导致降息预期 降温，同时市场对美联储独立性担忧缓解，带动美元指数明显回升。1 月以来贵金属快速上涨，波 动率已处于高位，沃什获提名成为触发因素，引发大量资金获利了结。从长期角度来看，去美元化、 地缘风险、央行购金等支撑因素并未发生逆转，我 ...

申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 评 论 及 策 略 生猪市场呈现期现联袂回落的走势，主力合约LH2605收跌0.69%。现货层面，全国外三元生猪 出栏均价也小幅下滑。主要由于小年临近，养殖户销售窗口期日益收窄，导致压栏情绪松 动，市场供应压力陡增。下游屠宰企业开工率有所提升，但仍难以消化供应压力，导致成交 价格承压下行。综合来看，市场短期内呈现"供需双增，但供给压力更为突出"的博弈格局 。预计猪价可能以弱势稳定为主，后续行情的关键，需要密切关注养殖端的出栏情绪是否延 续以及屠宰企业开工率能否有更强劲的表现。 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相 ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 沈击莽 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | shenyb@sywggh.com.cn 021-50582113 | | | | | | | | | 11.0 18 | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9 H | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1393. 5 | 1147.0 | 1222.5 | 1863. 5 | 1703.5 | 1774.0 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1390. 5 | 1138.5 | 1217.5 | 1860. 0 | 1698.5 | 1769.0 | | Eli | 浅跌 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | | स्त | 煮跌幅 | 0. 22% | 0. 75% | 0. 41% | 0. 19% | 0. 29% | 0. 28% | | 10 | 成交堂 | 1668 | 798141 | 3 ...