Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the overall operating rate of downstream demand seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the current rebound, they generally remain in a low - level oscillation process [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL futures, the prices of contracts in January, May, and September decreased by -1.51%, -1.27%, and -1.15% respectively compared to the previous two days; for PP futures, the decreases were -1.13%, -1.08%, and -0.96% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL futures contracts in January, May, and September were 282,287, 144,721, and 1,390 respectively; for PP futures, they were 259,821, 108,437, and 2,085 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL futures contracts in January, May, and September were 393,540, 294,817, and 4,703 respectively, with changes of +7,056, +25,032, and +250; for PP futures, they were 434,508, 306,888, and 17,796 respectively, with changes of -15,691, +14,332, and +78 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL futures, the spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -68, -46, and 114 respectively; for PP futures, they were -95, -38, and 133 respectively [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - products**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2,081 yuan/ton, 6,050 yuan/ton, 585 dollars/ton, 5,600 yuan/ton, 6,100 yuan/ton, and 8,700 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream Market**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6,800 - 7,150 yuan/ton, 6,650 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and 6,800 - 7,150 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 6,200 - 6,350 yuan/ton, 6,150 - 6,300 yuan/ton, and 6,250 - 6,450 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Friday (December 5th), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.08 per barrel, up $0.41 or 0.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.42 - $60.50. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.75 per barrel, up $0.49 or 0.77% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.06 - $64.09 [2]

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 2025/12/8 星期一 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | | | | | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | 前两日收盘价 4530.60 | 4512.20 | 4492.20 | 4441.60 | | 前日收盘价 4574.40 | 4557.00 | 4535.80 | 4487.80 | | 涨跌 46.00 沪深300 | 46.40 | 45.20 | 46.20 | | 涨跌幅 1.02 | 1.03 | 1.01 | 1.04 | | 成交量 84754.00 | 5005.00 | 29046.00 | 6014.00 | | 持仓量 1432 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.418 | 102.430 | 105.755 | 105.765 | 107.870 | 107.885 | 112.51 | 112.67 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.388 | 105.595 | 105.610 | 107.670 | 107.695 | 112.45 | 112.61 | | | 涨跌 | 0.050 | 0.042 | 0.160 | 0.155 | 0.200 | 0.190 | 0.060 | 0.060 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.05% | 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of the mild recovery of the domestic economy and the increasing expectation of global liquidity easing, the policy resonance of the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference will affect the A - share market rhythm in December and lay the foundation for the cross - year market and the investment mainline in 2026. Before the official implementation of the policies of the two meetings, funds may be more cautious, and the stock market is expected to be mainly volatile with funds preferring defensive allocations. After the meeting content is clear, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cuts may boost market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4530.60, 4512.20, 4492.20, and 4441.60 respectively, with increases of 17.20, 14.20, 15.40, and 12.00 respectively, and increases of 0.38%, 0.32%, 0.34%, and 0.27% respectively. The trading volumes were 63708.00, 3708.00, 20155.00, and 5003.00 respectively, and the open interests were 136475.00, 8471.00, 90771.00, and 26187.00 respectively, with changes of - 5723.00, 505.00, 851.00, and 425.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 2968.20, 2959.80, 2958.60, and 2943.80 respectively, with increases of 13.00, 10.00, 10.80, and 10.60 respectively, and increases of 0.44%, 0.34%, 0.37%, and 0.36% respectively. The trading volumes were 27688.00, 1268.00, 8640.00, and 1677.00 respectively, and the open interests were 53262.00, 2694.00, 23841.00, and 7797.00 respectively, with changes of - 2692.00, 228.00, - 354.00, and - 202.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 6983.20, 6926.20, 6812.20, and 6605.00 respectively, with increases of 42.00, 37.80, 40.20, and 39.00 respectively, and increases of 0.61%, 0.55%, 0.59%, and 0.59% respectively. The trading volumes were 64721.00, 4034.00, 23747.00, and 7294.00 respectively, and the open interests were 123278.00, 11229.00, 76774.00, and 32908.00 respectively, with changes of - 10513.00, 789.00, 1096.00, and 52.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 7213.40, 7137.20, 6987.80, and 6748.20 respectively, with increases of 28.00, 23.20, 26.60, and 27.40 respectively, and increases of 0.39%, 0.33%, 0.38%, and 0.41% respectively. The trading volumes were 116454.00, 7618.00, 35706.00, and 12279.00 respectively, and the open interests were 181088.00, 17229.00, 102333.00, and 56566.00 respectively, with changes of - 11986.00, 1137.00, - 1707.00, and - 1212.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 18.40, - 8.40, - 57.00, and - 76.20 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 16.00, - 6.60, - 56.60, and - 74.20 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value was 4546.57, with an increase of 0.34%. The trading volume was 147.20 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 3487.67 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value was 2974.34, with an increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 36.28 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 886.22 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value was 7012.81, with an increase of 0.24%. The trading volume was 141.04 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 2399.13 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value was 7248.66, with an increase of 0.01%. The trading volume was 194.84 billion lots, and the total trading amount was 3113.16 billion yuan [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption had increases of 0.48%, 0.41%, 0.66%, and 0.25% respectively; main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology had changes of - 0.79%, 0.28%, - 0.08%, and 1.09% respectively; telecommunications and public utilities had changes of 0.94% and - 0.23% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 300 Index were - 15.97, - 34.37, - 54.37, and - 104.97 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 12.85, - 28.85, - 48.65, and - 97.25 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the SSE 50 Index were - 6.14, - 14.54, - 15.74, and - 30.54 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 4.68, - 11.28, - 11.88, and - 26.08 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 500 Index were - 29.61, - 86.61, - 200.61, and - 407.81 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 45.96, - 102.56, - 214.96, and - 423.76 respectively [1] - The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) and the CSI 1000 Index were - 35.26, - 111.46, - 260.86, and - 500.46 respectively, compared with the previous two - day values of - 52.87, - 127.07, - 280.07, and - 517.27 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3875.79, 13006.72, 7904.33, and 3067.48 respectively, with changes of - 0.06%, 0.40%, 0.26%, and 1.01% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25935.90, 49864.68, 6857.12, and 23899.33 respectively, with changes of 0.68%, 1.14%, 0.87%, and 0.11% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Chinese President Xi Jinping held talks with French President Emmanuel Macron. The two sides emphasized mutual support on core interests and major concerns, exchanged views on the Ukraine crisis, and witnessed the signing of cooperation documents in multiple fields [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade organized Chinese entrepreneurs to communicate with US - China Business Council and its member enterprises in Washington, and the council's president also attended a seminar with the US Semiconductor Industry Association and its member enterprises to discuss cooperation in the semiconductor field [2] - The Chinese government conducts export control of rare - earth - related items in accordance with laws and regulations, and approves compliant export applications for civilian use in a timely manner. The Chinese side urges Japan to correct its wrong words and deeds on the Taiwan issue [2] - The EU has terminated the lawsuit against China's trade - restriction measures at the WTO. China believes the EU's decision to terminate the lawsuit is correct [2] - More than 15 regions have issued "15th Five - Year Plan" suggestions, with a focus on artificial intelligence and other cutting - edge industries, each with its own layout and development direction [2] 6. Industry Information - The Future Network Test Facility, the first national major scientific and technological infrastructure in the field of information and communication in China, has been officially put into operation, providing open - test support for multiple fields and carrying out demonstration applications in cutting - edge directions [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has issued a recommended national standard for food - delivery platforms, aiming to solve problems such as "ghost food - delivery" and promote the healthy development of the food - delivery industry [2] - In November, the number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 49,000, a seven - month high, with a month - on - month increase of 20%. In the first 11 months of this year, the cumulative number of second - hand housing transactions in first - tier cities reached 519,000, a year - on - year increase of about 5% [2] - In December, the supply of new housing is expected to be stable at a low level. The single - month supply of 28 cities is expected to decline by 12% month - on - month and 49% year - on - year, and the annual cumulative supply is expected to decline by 19% year - on - year. However, due to "quality improvement and quantity reduction" in supply and year - end discounts, the new - housing transactions in December are expected to have a pulse - like recovery [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance. The previous trading day, the stock index fluctuated and recovered. The machinery and equipment sector led the gains, while the comprehensive sector led the losses. The market turnover was 1.56 trillion yuan. On December 3, the margin trading balance decreased by 3.713 billion yuan to 2.465189 trillion yuan [2] - In December 2025, the global financial market will face two "policy wind vanes": the Fed's December interest - rate meeting and the Chinese Central Economic Work Conference. Their policy resonance will affect the A - share market rhythm in December and the investment mainline in 2026 [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices closed slightly lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break-even point. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, household appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disturbances in mines have led to a global copper supply-demand deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night-time zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, household appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the current bullish sentiment in the non-ferrous metals sector. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Metal Prices and Market Data - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 90,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 110 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,434 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 162,150 tons with a daily increase of 350 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,055 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,888 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 533,400 tons with a daily decrease of 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,820 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,085 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,450 tons with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,885 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 252,990 tons with a daily decrease of 84 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,016 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,150 tons with a daily decrease of 3,800 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 315,520 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 9,790 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 40,540 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,195 tons with a daily increase of 50 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. On the spot market, prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of downstream demand is high, with demand steadily released. However, market sentiment is still affected by the weakness of crude oil and commodities as a whole. In the short term, the valuation of polyolefins is at a low level, and after the rebound, they generally maintain a low - level oscillation process. Future attention should be paid to marginal consumption, supply, and production scheduling levels [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6776, 6829, and 6867 respectively, down -0.47%, -0.65%, and -0.67% from the day before the previous day. For PP, the corresponding prices were 6359, 6452, and 6482, down -0.36%, -0.40%, and -0.32%. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 210139, 118193, and 1134 respectively. For PP, they were 206027, 87292, and 1646. - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 386484, 269785, and 4453 respectively, with changes of -16226, 14989, and 180. For PP, they were 450199, 292556, and 17718, with changes of -9702, 10392, and 161. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -53, -38, and 91 respectively, compared with -66, -39, and 105 previously. For PP, they were -93, -30, and 123, compared with -96, -25, and 121 previously [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2116 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 583 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6150 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. - **Mid - stream**: In the LL market, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China were 6850 - 7250 yuan/ton, 6700 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively. In the PP market, they were 6250 - 6400 yuan/ton, 6150 - 6300 yuan/ton, and 6300 - 6450 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (December 4), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.67 per barrel, up $0.72 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $58.81 - $60.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $63.26 per barrel, up $0.59 or 0.94%, with a trading range of $62.53 - $63.62 [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.368 | 102.388 | 105.595 | 105.610 | 107.670 | 107.695 | 112.45 | 112.61 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.420 | 102.456 | 105.850 | 105.865 | 108.040 | 108.090 | 113.61 | 113.78 | | | 涨跌 | -0.052 | -0.068 | -0.255 | -0.255 | -0.370 | -0.395 | -1.160 | -1.170 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0 ...

| CNF到岸价: | 指标 | | --- | --- | | 名称 | | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 2025/12/5 申万期货品种策略日报- 油脂油料 申银万国期货研究所 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） lijy@sywgqh.com.cn 国 内 期 货 市 场 豆油主力 棕榈油主力 菜油主力 豆粕主力 菜粕主力 花生主力 前日收盘价 8254 8666 9618 2833 2422 8844 涨跌 -32 -64 -93 -213 14 26 涨跌幅(%) -0.39% -0.73% -3.15% -6.99% 0.58% 0.29% 价差 Y9-1 P9-1 OI9-1 Y-P09 OI-Y09 OI-P09 现值 -260 -132 -186 -540 1438 898 前值 -256 -134 -313 -566 1409 843 比价-价差 M9-1 RM9-1 M-RM09 M/RM09 Y/M09 Y-M09 现值 -95 42 481 1.20 2.71 5049 前值 -87 71 480 1.19 2.71 5071 国 际 期 货 市 场 B ...

报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响 因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作 者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不 受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见 或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 明 免责声明 20251204申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 459.0 | 455.5 | 59.58 | 59.41 | 64.82 | 64.36 | | | 前2日收盘价 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Night - session copper prices closed higher, hitting a record high. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point, and smelting output, while declining month - on - month, continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - session zinc prices closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally high, infrastructure investment growth has slowed, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance output is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Metal Price and Market Data - **Copper**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 89,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 90 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 11,449 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 88.38 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 161,800 tons, and the daily change was 2,375 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 70 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 2,897 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 30.98 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 535,900 tons, and the daily change was - 2,000 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 3,062 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 186.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 52,375 tons, and the daily change was 350 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 117,600 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,330 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 14,875 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 196.14 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 253,074 tons, and the daily change was - 1,290 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,195 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 1,999 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 43.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 256,950 tons, and the daily change was - 3,925 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 311,370 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,390 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month futures closing price was 40,750 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 133.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 3,145 tons, and the daily change was - 15 tons [2].