| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.376 | 102.316 | 105.655 | 105.535 | 107.805 | 107.490 | 115.4 | 115.09 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.380 | 102.304 | 105.600 | 105.505 | 107.710 | 107.415 | 115.27 | 114.93 | | | 涨跌 | -0.004 | 0.012 | 0.055 | 0.030 | 0.095 | 0.075 | 0.130 | 0.160 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.00% | 0. ...

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 15 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：降息周期即将重启？ 中美在西班牙就有关经贸问题举行会谈。当地时间 9 月 14 日，中美双方在西班 牙马德里就有关经贸问题举行会谈。双方将讨论美单边关税措施、滥用出口管制 及 TikTok 等经贸问题。对于 TikTok 问题，中方将坚持原则，坚定维护中资企业 正当合法权益。涉及中国企业的具体商业安排，必须符合中国法律法规。商务部 就美国对华集成电路领域相关措施发起反歧视立案调查。本次调查自 2025 年 9 月 13 日开始，调查期限通常为 3 个月，特殊情况下可适当延长。全球金融市场 将迎来"央行超级周"，美联储、加拿大央行等多家主要央行将公布利率决议。 市场普遍预计美联储将首次降息 25 个基点，以应对疲软的劳动力市场。英美本 周将签署一项"突破性"科技协议，核心内容聚焦人工智能与量子计算合作。中 国 8 月新增社融 2.57 万亿元，新增贷款 5900 亿元，M2-M1 剪刀差创四年新低。 重点品种：黄金、铜、股指 黄金：黄金高位整理，白银接棒走强。上周公布的通胀数据整体符合预期，8 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.9%，较 7 月的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range. Weekend night - session copper prices dropped 0.31%. With tight concentrate supply and pressured smelting profits, smelting output still shows high growth. Multiple factors such as power industry growth, possible slowdown in PV growth, positive growth in auto production and sales, slowing home appliance output growth, and weak real estate make the copper market have both positive and negative factors [2]. - Zinc prices may have a short - term wide - range and weak - trend fluctuation. Weekend night - session zinc prices dropped 0.02%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, and smelting profits are turning positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards surplus [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Metal Price Performance - Copper: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 81,360 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 10,068 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 73.42 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 154,175 tons, with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 21,285 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,701 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 6.35 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 485,275 tons, with no change [2]. - Zinc: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 75 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,956 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was 30.17 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 50,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 200 tons [2]. - Nickel: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,800 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,330 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,391 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 171.20 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 223,152 tons, with a daily increase of 2,058 tons [2]. - Lead: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,000 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 125 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,018 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 41.16 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 232,625 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 273,180 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,300 yuan/ton. The previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price was 34,955 dollars/ton, and the LME现货升贴水 was - 34.98 dollars/ton. LME inventory was 2,385 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The market entered a high-level consolidation phase after a long period of continuous rise, with some funds increasing their hedging demand at high levels, leading to a certain divergence between long and short forces and significant fluctuations in stock index futures. In the long run, the strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are mostly composed of technology growth stocks, are more offensive and volatile but may bring higher returns, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are mostly composed of dividend blue chips, are more defensive, less volatile, but may have relatively weak price elasticity [2] Summary by Directory 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts for different delivery months decreased, with the decline ranging from -0.29% to -0.43%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 83,488, and the open interest decreased by 11,408 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts for different delivery months also decreased, with the decline ranging from -0.35% to -0.43%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 36,849, and the open interest decreased by 6,262 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts for different delivery months increased, with the increase ranging from 0.59% to 0.78%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 86,462, and the open interest decreased by 7,730 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts for different delivery months increased, with the increase ranging from 0.11% to 0.39%. The trading volume of the current month contract was 134,399, and the open interest decreased by 12,508 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The spreads between different delivery months of each contract showed certain changes [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The index decreased by -0.57%, with a trading volume of 26.644 billion lots and a total trading value of 689.576 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The index decreased by -0.49%, with a trading volume of 6.171 billion lots and a total trading value of 177.453 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The index increased by 0.35%, with a trading volume of 26.657 billion lots and a total trading value of 499.36 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index increased by 0.31%, with a trading volume of 31.584 billion lots and a total trading value of 508.828 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 300 Industry Index**: Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed different trends, with the telecommunications business industry having the largest decline of -2.97% and the information technology industry having the largest increase of 1.03% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis between futures and spot prices of each index showed certain changes compared with the previous values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by -0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by -0.43%, the Small and Medium - Sized Board Index decreased by -0.54%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by -1.09% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.16%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 0.89%, the S&P 500 decreased by -0.05%, and the DAX Index decreased by -0.02% [1] 5. Macro Information - The Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti - dumping investigation into imported analog chips from the United States. The dumping margin of the products from the US was over 300%, and they accounted for an average of 41% of the Chinese market share [2] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 600 - billion - yuan 6 - month term repurchase operation on September 15, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan this month, a continuous increase for four months [2] - Policies to promote private investment are being formulated, including setting minimum private investment participation ratios for major projects in industries such as railways, nuclear power, and oil and gas pipelines [2] - A series of industry stability and growth work plans have been or will be released, including those for the automotive, electronic information manufacturing, and power equipment industries [2] 6. Industry Information - The Shenzhen Science and Technology Sports Industry Fund was established, aiming to invest in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence, high - end sports equipment, and the metaverse [2] - The summer grain purchase in 2025 was coming to an end, with over 100 million tons of wheat purchased [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation drafted the "Interim Measures for the Management of Food Safety Inspectors (Draft for Comment)" and solicited public opinions [2] - From January to August 2025, the national railway completed fixed - asset investment of 504.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6% [2]

20250915申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7169 | 7181 | 7050 | 6913 | 6936 | 6787 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7209 | 7220 | 7145 | 6939 | 6961 | 6805 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -40 | -39 | -95 | -26 | -25 | -18 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.55% | -0.54% | -1.33% | -0.37% | -0.36% | -0.26% | | 场 | 成交量 | 244355 | 9836 | 1732 | 255093 | 11223 | 528 | | | 持仓量 | 561110 | 35866 | 0 | 643355 | ...

申银万国期货研究所 林新杰（从业编号：F3032999 交易咨询号：Z0014722） 20250915申万期货品种策略日报-贵金属 | | | | linxj@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50586279 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪金2510 | 沪金2512 | 沪银2510 | 沪银2512 | | | 期 | 现价 | 834.00 | 836.00 | 10051.00 | 10075.00 | | | | 前收盘价 | 830.78 | 832.84 | 9798.00 | 9821.00 | | | 货 | 涨跌 | 3.22 | 3.16 | 253.00 | 254.00 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.39% | 0.38% | 2.58% | 2.59% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 114423 | 210404 | 203343 | 353668 | | | | 成交量 | 165360 | 107160 | 301985 | 196315 | | | | 现货升贴水 | -7. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index has been the standout performer, while commodities are poised for a potential upswing. The domestic liquidity is expected to remain loose in 2025, and more incremental policies may be introduced in Q4 to boost the real economy. With external risks gradually easing and an increased probability of a Fed rate cut in September, the attractiveness of RMB assets is further enhanced. The current market is at the resonance of "policy bottom + capital bottom + valuation bottom", but investors need to adapt to the accelerating sector rotation and structural differentiation [1][2][9]. - Crude oil prices may be affected by the decision of eight countries to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the potential partial or full restoration of the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut. Attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation [3][12]. - The glass and soda ash markets are in the process of inventory digestion, with the futures market showing weakness and converging towards the spot market. The focus is on whether autumn consumption can further aid in inventory digestion and the impact of new policy changes on the fundamentals in the long - term [3][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day - **International News**: In August, the US consumer price index increased by 2.9% year - on - year (in line with the forecast) and 0.4% month - on - month (higher than the expected 0.3%). The number of initial jobless claims last week was 263,000, higher than the estimated 235,000 [4][5]. - **Domestic News**: The State Council has approved the implementation of comprehensive reform pilot projects for the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and several city clusters, for a period of two years starting immediately [6]. - **Industry News**: From September 1 - 7, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 304,000 units, a 10% year - on - year decrease and a 4% month - on - month decrease. The wholesale volume was 307,000 units, a 5% year - on - year decrease and a 9% month - on - month increase [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of External Markets - The S&P 500 index rose by 0.85%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 2.08%, ICE Brent crude oil dropped by 1.91%, and other commodities showed various degrees of price changes [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes rose, and the previous trading day's stock index rebounded across the board. The communication sector led the gain, with a market turnover of 2.46 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 5.774 billion yuan to 2.309269 trillion yuan on September 10. The stock index has been rising since July, with short - term fluctuations but a high probability of a long - term upward trend [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - end of treasury bonds strengthened, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.8075%. The central bank's net injection of funds maintained a relatively stable capital market. However, concerns about the reduction of bond fund scale, along with the stock - bond seesaw effect and the impact of fund redemption regulations, are expected to keep the long - end of treasury bonds weak [11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The SC crude oil night session fell by 1.45%. Eight countries decided to increase daily production by 137,000 barrels starting from October, and the 1.65 million barrels per day voluntary production cut may be partially or fully restored [3][12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session dropped by 0.54%. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory reached a historical high, indicating a short - term bearish trend [13]. - **Rubber**: The rubber price showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply is affected by the rainy season in the main producing areas, while the demand is in the off - season with uncertainties. The short - term trend is expected to be in a volatile adjustment [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed a weak performance. The supply - demand relationship is the main factor in the spot market. Although the inventory is gradually being digested and the rebound of international crude oil prices is helpful, the market still needs time to stop falling. Attention should be paid to the support from downstream procurement [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass futures were in a volatile consolidation. The supply - demand situation is slowly recovering, and the inventory of glass and soda ash production enterprises decreased this week. The futures market is weak and converging towards the spot market, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [3][16]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold entered a consolidation phase. The inflation data in August strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. The long - term driving factors for gold, such as the US fiscal deficit and central bank gold purchases, still exist. Gold and silver are expected to show a relatively strong trend in the short - term, but investors should be cautious of profit - taking adjustments [17]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose by 0.45% at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, but the smelting output continues to grow. The power, automotive, and other industries have different performance trends, and the copper price is likely to fluctuate within a range [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose by 0.13% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The short - term supply - demand balance may tilt towards oversupply, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium price remained stable. The production increased, and the inventory decreased. However, there are still many uncertainties in the market, and investors should be vigilant against capital speculation [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures showed a high - level volatile trend. The inventory accumulation is mainly from rebar, and the iron - water output recovery will increase the supply pressure of finished products. Policy expectations and potential production - over - inspection effects can provide some support [22]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have started to resume production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is being rapidly depleted. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the future, but attention should be paid to the steel mills' production progress [23]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the supply pressure is gradually emerging. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the export situation is mixed. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for now, and the short - term trend is a correction [24]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal prices rose slightly at night. Although the US soybean export is affected by trade tariffs, the reduction of planting area and potential decline in yield support the price. The domestic market is expected to be in a narrow - range fluctuation, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [25][26]. - **Edible Oils**: The edible oil prices were strong at night. The palm oil price may be under pressure due to the lower - than - expected export in August. The soybean oil price is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the upcoming USDA report. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade relations and US biodiesel policies [27]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory accumulation stage with increased Brazilian sugar supply, while the domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory. However, the pressure from imported processed sugar and the upcoming new sugar - pressing season may drag down the price. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to follow the weak trend of international sugar [28]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton price rose slightly. The domestic cotton market is shifting the focus to the new cotton purchase, but the downstream demand is weak. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC container shipping index to Europe showed a weak performance, falling by 5.28%. With the approaching of the National Day Golden Week, shipping companies are intensifying price competition, and the market is following the downward trend of spot freight rates. Attention should be paid to the shipping companies' price - adjustment rhythm [30].

2025年09月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.410 | 102.320 | 105.590 | 105.485 | 107.580 | 107.280 | 114.74 | 114.39 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.350 | 102.290 | 105.425 | 105.350 | 107.490 | 107.205 | 114.76 | 114.38 | | | 涨跌 | 0.060 | 0.030 | 0.165 | 0.135 | 0.090 | 0.075 | -0.020 | 0. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins are operating weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand fundamentals. This summer's maintenance is in balance. Currently, PE inventory is being slowly digested, and PP inventory has also improved. However, the futures market is in a process of gradually stopping the decline. In the future, attention should be paid to the support of downstream stocking for raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7209, 7220, and 7145 respectively, with price drops of -17, -17, and -31, and percentage drops of -0.24%, -0.23%, and -0.43%. The trading volumes were 217976, 5427, and 29, and the open interests were 533469, 34922, and 8028, with open interest changes of 16282, 1284, and -25. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -11, 75, and -64 (current values) compared to -11, 61, and -50 (previous values) [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6939, 6961, and 6805 respectively, with price drops of -9, -10, and -49, and percentage drops of -0.13%, -0.14%, and -0.71%. The trading volumes were 197721, 6276, and 190, and the open interests were 624199, 53554, and 2184, with open interest changes of 9293, 1437, and -135. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were -22, 156, and -134 (current values) compared to -23, 117, and -94 (previous values) [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2389 yuan/ton, 6700 yuan/ton, 601 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to 2408 yuan/ton, 6675 yuan/ton, 598 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6770 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton (previous values) [2]. - **Spot Market (Mid - stream)**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The current price ranges of PP in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6750 - 6950 yuan/ton, 6700 - 6950 yuan/ton, and 6750 - 7000 yuan/ton respectively [2]. Market News - On Thursday (September 11), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.37 per barrel, down $1.30 or 2.04% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.21 - $63.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.37 per barrel, down $1.12 or 1.66% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.15 - $67.62 [2].

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/9/12 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8336 | 9330 | 9893 | 3088 | 2550 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 80 | 86 | 123 | 22 | -15 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.97% | 0.93% | -3.15% | 0.72% | -0.58% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...