| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2603 102.464 | TS2606 102.482 | TF2603 105.820 | TF2606 105.810 | T2603 107.985 | T2606 108.000 | TL2603 112.47 | TL2606 112.66 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.010 | -0.065 | -0.075 | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.720 | -0.680 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose by over 2% overnight, inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply-demand expectation towards a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose by nearly 3% overnight, also inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply-demand difference of zinc is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non-ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Overnight copper price rose by over 2%, influenced by the Fed's actions. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Smelting output decreased month - on - month but still shows high - growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions turn the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 92,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,834 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 24.76 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,975 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price rose by nearly 3%, affected by the Fed's actions. Zinc concentrate processing fees have dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not significant, but the market sentiment of non - ferrous metals should be noted [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,970 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,198 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 172.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 59,800 tons, and the daily change was 1,650 tons [2]. Other Metals - For aluminum, the previous domestic futures closing price was 21,875 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.68 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 520,800 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - For nickel, the previous domestic futures closing price was 115,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,530 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 186.96 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,092 tons, and the daily change was 564 tons [2]. - For lead, the previous domestic futures closing price was 17,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,984 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 48.25 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 235,550 tons, and the daily change was - 1,375 tons [2]. - For tin, the previous domestic futures closing price was 318,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,180 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 41,880 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 22.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,655 tons, and the daily change was 605 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report provides a bias assessment for various varieties, with "√" indicating a bullish bias and "V" (assuming it's a typo and should be "√") indicating a bullish bias as well: - Bullish: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), Treasury bonds (TS), Rubber, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Gold, Silver, Copper, Aluminum, Lithium carbonate, Cotton, Corn [5] - Bearish: Crude oil, Methanol, Apple, Container shipping to Europe [5] 2. Report's Core View - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote economic development and stabilize the market [1][7][11] - Under multiple positive factors, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated, and the resonance of positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut may boost market risk appetite [3][10] - Different futures varieties show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic factors 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 6 reached 236,000, the highest since the week of September 6, 2025 [6] - **Domestic News**: The Central Economic Work Conference held in Beijing on December 10 - 11 pointed out the overall requirements and policy orientation for next year's economic work, including continuing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks [7] - **Industry News**: In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles both approached 15 million, with exports of new energy vehicles doubling year - on - year [7] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas futures on December 10 - 11, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc. For example, the S&P 500 rose 0.21% to 6,901.00 points, and ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.55% to $61.55 per barrel [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After the previous trading day's decline, with the improvement of the system, the expansion of funds, and the empowerment of industries, the long - term and slow - rising trend of the A - share market may be consolidated. The Fed's expected interest rate cut in December and the positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [3][10] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly, with the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond falling to 1.831%. The market liquidity is loose. The Fed's interest rate cut and the expected introduction of domestic policies support the short - term Treasury bond futures [11] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night - session fell 1.27%. The IEA raised the forecast for oil demand growth in 2026, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to factors such as weak European demand [13] - **Methanol**: Methanol's night - session fell 1.83%. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefins plant operating rate decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory decreased. It is expected to be weak in the short term [14] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber futures fluctuated. Overseas supply is increasing, and domestic supply elasticity is weakening. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined. The downstream demand has reached a high level, and the previous price decline was affected by the weakening of crude oil and the overall commodity market. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the price continued to be weak [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures continued to be weak, and soda ash futures mainly declined. Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to the potential changes in industrial production and the recovery of the real estate industry chain [17] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices rose. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion are expected to boost market liquidity and support the long - term upward trend of precious metals [18] - **Copper**: The night - session copper price rose more than 2% due to the Fed's unexpected action. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Zinc**: The night - session zinc price rose nearly 3% due to the Fed's action. The zinc concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and related factors [20] - **Aluminum**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum rose 0.82%. The Fed's interest rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support the aluminum price. In the short - to - medium term, the supply is stable, and the demand is okay in the off - season. The upward momentum is weakening in the short term, but the long - term outlook is optimistic [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is expected to increase in December, and the demand is expected to decline. The short - term supply disturbance is the focus. It is recommended to take a bullish view after a callback [22][23] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session coking coal and coke futures continued to be weak. The steel mill's production reduction expectation and the increase in Mongolian coal imports put pressure on the price, but the strong policy expectation in December may provide upward momentum. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [24] - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price declined. The shipping volume increased slightly, and the port inventory increased slightly. The steel mill's demand is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term [25] - **Steel Products**: The steel price volatility increased. The supply and demand are both weak, and the inventory decline has narrowed. The steel price has short - term rebound momentum but is expected to be weak in the medium term [26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night - session soybean and rapeseed meal futures rose slightly. The Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slower than last year, and the US soybean export is slow. The domestic supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weak [27] - **Oils and Fats**: The night - session soybean and palm oil futures were weak, and rapeseed oil rose. The Malaysian palm oil inventory increased, and the rapeseed oil is expected to be strong in the short term due to positive news [28] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar futures fluctuated narrowly and are expected to be weak in the short term. The international raw sugar price is affected by Brazil and India, and the domestic supply is increasing, but the cost provides some support [29] - **Cotton**: The overnight cotton price was weak but still above the upper limit of the range. It is expected to be strong in the short term due to factors such as fast sales progress, potential reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC fluctuated, and the 02 contract rose 2.04%. The shipping companies' price - holding intention is strong in December and early January. The 02 contract is expected to fluctuate, and the 04 contract may decline due to supply surplus and potential red - sea route resumption [31]

2025年12月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 涨跌 | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.060 | 0.065 | 0.070 | 0.070 | 0.400 | 0.4 ...

20251212申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.456 | 102.466 | 105.825 | 105.820 | 108.030 | 108.045 | 112.79 | 112.94 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.430 | 102.444 | 105.785 | 105.790 | 107.980 | 108.000 | 112.59 | 112.75 | | | 涨跌 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.050 | 0.045 | 0.200 | 0.190 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0. ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6561 | 6599 | 6635 | 6162 | 6243 | 6283 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6557 | 6610 | 6656 | 6192 | 6280 | 6322 | | 货 | 涨跌 | 4 | -11 | -21 | -30 | -37 | -39 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | 0.06% | -0.17% | -0.32% | -0.48% | -0.59% | -0.62% | | 场 | 成交量 | 289654 | 280955 | 2747 | 272617 | 203963 | 3106 | | | 持仓量 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/11 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8230 | 8706 | 9502 | 2778 | 2395 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -36 | -64 | -116 | -43 | -2 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.44% | -0.73% | -3.15% | -1.52% | -0.08% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For copper, night - session copper prices closed lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. Supply disruptions in the mining sector have led to a global copper supply - demand gap. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - For zinc, night - session zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, and concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Data - Copper: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 91,010 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 85 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 11,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 8.19 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,000 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,735 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 100 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,846 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 32.14 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 525,800 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 23,025 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 166.73 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 57,750 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 2,375 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 116,900 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,430 yuan/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 192.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,344 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was 228 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,115 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 1,977 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 51.57 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,825 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 312,120 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 930 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 39,850 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 46.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,075 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory was - 10 tons [2].

| | 1、央行公告称，12月9日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了1173亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量1173 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量1173亿元。Wind数据显示，当日1563亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼390亿元。 | | | 2、国务院总理李强同主要国际经济组织负责人举行"1+10"对话会。李强强调，今年中国经济顶压前行，取得新的发 | | | 展成绩，我们有信心有能力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务。中国经济将保持稳健向好势头，经济总量将再上新台 | | | 阶，产业升级将创造新的发展空间，超大规模市场需求将加快释放。 | | | 3、财政部副部长廖岷就"1+10"对话会有关情况答记者问：与会国际经济组织的负责人一致认为，面对挑战，国际社 会必须展现出超越分歧的团结与智慧，采取协同一致的行动，持续为世界经济注入确定性与新动力。加强国际宏观经 | | | 济政策协调。主要经济体应关注宏观政策的外溢影响，共同应对通胀、债务与汇率波动风险。积极化解和减少贸易政 | | | 策的不确定性，有效应对贸易壁垒上升和贸易碎片化。进一步完善各国国内政策。更加注重财政 ...