| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2509 102.362 | TS2512 102.438 | TF2509 105.720 | TF2512 105.785 | T2509 108.395 | T2512 108.400 | TL2509 118.78 | TL2512 118.49 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.310 | 102.376 | 105.570 | 105.620 | 108.180 | 108.180 | 117.95 | 117.71 | | | 涨跌 | 0.052 | 0.062 | 0.150 | 0.165 | 0.215 | 0.220 | 0.830 | 0.780 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.05% | 0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report anticipates that the proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase, which is favorable for reducing stock market volatility. It believes that the policy signal is clear, and the valuation has started to repair in advance, but the fundamentals have not been fully verified. In the medium - to long - term, A - shares have a high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000, supported by more science and innovation policies, have the potential for higher returns due to their high growth, while SSE 50 and CSI 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts showed declines, with decreases ranging from - 0.40% to - 0.50%. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 53,170.00, and the open interest of IF current - month contracts decreased by 4,718.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts also declined, with drops from - 0.55% to - 0.61%. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 30,341.00, and the open interest of IH current - month contracts decreased by 599.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts mostly decreased, with falls from - 0.02% to - 0.06%. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 39,078.00, and the open interest of IC current - month contracts decreased by 2,979.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with rises from 0.01% to 0.03%. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 98,231.00, and the open interest of IM current - month contracts decreased by 3,636.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF next - month minus IF current - month was - 6.80, IH next - month minus IH current - month was 1.20, IC next - month minus IC current - month was - 45.20, and IM next - month minus IM current - month was - 62.40 [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices Performance**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.53%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.60%, the CSI 500 index increased by 0.10%, and the CSI 1000 index increased by 0.08%. Different industries in the CSI 300 index showed varying degrees of rise and fall, with the information technology industry rising by 1.43% and the optional consumption industry falling by 1.48% [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts Basis**: The basis of IF current - month minus CSI 300 was - 4.36, and the basis of IF next - month minus CSI 300 was - 11.16 [1] - **IH Contracts Basis**: The basis of IH current - month minus SSE 50 was 0.09, and the basis of IH next - month minus SSE 50 was 1.29 [1] - **IC Contracts Basis**: The basis of IC current - month minus CSI 500 was - 38.39, and the basis of IC next - month minus CSI 500 was - 83.59 [1] - **IM Contracts Basis**: The basis of IM current - month minus CSI 1000 was - 38.41, and the basis of IM next - month minus CSI 1000 was - 100.81 [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Major Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the DAX index increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 decreased by 0.32% [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - **Industrial Profits**: In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing compared to May. From January to June, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 3,436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The profits of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 13.7 times year - on - year, while the profits of the mining industry decreased by 30.3% [2] - **US - EU Trade Agreement**: The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement. The EU will increase investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $150 billion of US energy products. Some products will be exempt from tariffs [2] - **US Business Delegation to China**: A high - level US business delegation is about to visit China, organized by the US - China Business Council [2] - **Provincial Economic Data**: The economic performance of the six central provinces is remarkable, with the GDP growth rates of most provinces exceeding the national average of 5.3% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - **Artificial Intelligence**: The SASAC attaches great importance to the high - quality development of the artificial intelligence industry. The Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory released ten scientific and intelligent innovation achievements, and Pudong will create over 30 application scenarios and attract 1,000 AI enterprises in the next three years, with the core output value of AI exceeding 200 billion yuan [2] - **Photovoltaic Industry**: The photovoltaic industry should limit production, stabilize prices, and ensure profits, and learn from the successful experiences of cement integration and the high - profit cycle of electrolytic aluminum [2] - **Power Bank Industry**: The China Chemical and Physical Power Sources Industry Association held a symposium on the compliance and healthy development of the power bank industry in Shenzhen, reaching important consensus on improving product quality [2]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a range in the short term due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as the concentrate processing fees are rising, and the market expects an improvement in concentrate supply and a recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - time copper prices closed lower. Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices are challenging smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with power industry showing positive growth, automobile production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 79,830 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 105 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 9,855 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 49.92 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 124,825 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Concentrate processing fees have been rising recently. Domestic automobile production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply [2]. - The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,920 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,841 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 0.71 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 115,325 tons with a daily change of - 1,275 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 20,815 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 10 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,646 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 2.26 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 444,800 tons with a daily change of 6,350 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 123,220 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,360 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,470 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 202.01 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 205,872 tons with a daily change of - 2,220 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 16,810 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 170 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,023 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 24.27 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 263,150 tons with a daily change of 650 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 268,540 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 270 yuan/ton, the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 34,660 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 145.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,690 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - With recent positive trade progress, gold and silver prices have continuously declined. Before the new tariff deadline, there was a peak in negotiations. After the US and Japan reached a trade agreement, multiple media reported that the US and the EU are expected to reach a preliminary agreement on imposing a 15% tariff, cooling the risk - aversion sentiment. US CPI has rebounded, further cooling the short - term expectation of interest rate cuts. Although the impact of the US tariff policy shown by economic data is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. In addition, the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the price is high and the upward movement is hesitant. Silver is showing strength driven by industrial products. Gold and silver may continue to show a volatile and slightly upward trend [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For futures contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2508, 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2508, 2512, there were small declines in prices with the largest decline being - 0.18% for Shanghai Silver 2512. In the spot market, London Gold and London Silver also decreased, with London Gold dropping by - 1.66% [2] - **Position and Volume**: The positions and trading volumes of different futures contracts vary. For example, the position of Shanghai Gold 2512 is 110,694 and the trading volume is 46,395 [2] - **Spread and Ratio**: The current values of spreads such as Shanghai Gold 2512 - Shanghai Gold 2506 and ratios like gold/silver have changed compared to previous values [2] Inventory - The inventories of gold and silver in different exchanges have changed. For example, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory increased by 501 kg, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 402,925 [2] Related Market Indicators - The US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil price, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate all have their current values and changes. For example, the US dollar index is currently 97.4884, up 0.29% [2] ETF and CFTC Positions - The positions of SPDR Gold ETF and SLV Silver ETF both increased by 1 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver increased by 481, while that in gold decreased by 1,451 [2] Macro News - US President Trump visited the Federal Reserve and pressured for interest rate cuts. An investment company sued Federal Reserve officials for closed - door policy meetings. The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged and listed "trade disputes" as a major source of policy uncertainty. The EU voted to impose counter - tariffs on US products worth 93 billion euros [3] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July dropped to 49.5, the lowest since December 2024, while the preliminary values of the service and composite PMIs reached new highs since December 2024. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 217,000, the lowest since mid - April [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has a relatively high investment cost - performance in the medium - to - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may offer higher returns due to more science and technology innovation policies, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive in the current macro - environment [11]. - The bond market may continue to weaken in the short term, especially the long - term treasury bond futures prices will fluctuate more significantly [12]. - The prices of some commodities are driven by the "anti - involution" policy, and the expected increase in industrial product prices is rising [12]. - The steel market has a weak supply - demand situation with little change in inventory, and steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][24]. - The prices of coking coal are likely to continue rising in the short term but may peak after late August [2][25]. - The prices of crude oil are affected by geopolitical factors and trade agreements, and the subsequent OPEC production increase situation needs attention [3][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The European Central Bank kept its three major interest rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the first time after eight consecutive cuts since June last year. It cited "trade disputes" as the main source of policy uncertainty [5]. - **Domestic News**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying unfair price behaviors and regulate market price order [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first half of the year, China's gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%, while gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. The increase in domestic gold ETF positions was 84.771 tons, a year - on - year increase of 173.73% [7]. 3.2 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.07%, the European STOXX 50 rose 0.12%, and the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.11%. The US dollar index rose 0.29%. Among commodities, SC crude oil rose 0.56%, ICE Brent crude rose 1.00%, London gold fell 0.55%, and London silver fell 0.48% [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to see an increase in the proportion of medium - and long - term funds, which is conducive to reducing market volatility. The policy signal is clear, and the valuation is starting to recover [10][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall. Due to factors such as the central bank's net capital withdrawal, unchanged LPR, and improved consumer confidence in the US, the bond market may continue to weaken in the short term [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose at night. The US - EU trade agreement is approaching, and geopolitical tensions remain a focus. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall methanol plant operating rate decreased. Coastal inventories increased. Methanol is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins continued to rebound. The market is focused on the supply - demand situation, and the improvement of the supply - demand situation needs time [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded significantly. The supply of both decreased during the summer maintenance period, and inventories declined. It is recommended to wait and see due to high short - term market enthusiasm [16]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rose on Thursday. Supply - side factors support prices, but demand is weak. Prices may be volatile in the short term [17]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices have been falling. The trade situation has improved, reducing risk - aversion sentiment. However, long - term factors still support gold prices, and silver is relatively strong due to industrial product support [18]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell at night. The processing fee of concentrates is low, and downstream demand is mixed. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [19]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. The processing fee of concentrates has increased. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to the issue of mining qualifications in Jiangxi. Although there is still room for sentiment fermentation, the fundamentals are under pressure. The price may be strong in the short term but lacks a medium - term reversal basis [21][22]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the relatively good profit of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [23]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of the steel market is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short term [3][24]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces rebounded, and coking coal and coke inventories changed. The prices are likely to rise further in the short term but may peak after late August [2][25]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybean prices are expected to be volatile in the short term. Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to be weak due to the promotion of soybean meal substitution and sufficient supply [26]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil prices are expected to be supported by the improvement of the Indonesian market and the expected increase in exports to the EU. The medium - to - long - term price center of oils and fats is expected to rise slowly [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index rebounded. The freight rate of the European line is approaching its peak, and the peak season inflection point may be approaching, but the extent and slope of the subsequent freight rate adjustment are uncertain [28].

| | 1、央行公告称，7月24日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了3310亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量3310 | | --- | --- | | | 亿元，中标量3310亿元。Wind数据显示，当日4505亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净回笼1195亿元。 | | | 2、为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年7月25日，人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展4000亿 | | | 元MLF（中期借贷便利）操作，期限为1年期。专家表示，本月有3000亿元MLF到期，这意味着7月MLF将净投放1000亿 | | | 元，为连续第五个月加量续做。 | | | 3、国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔 、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张 。 | | | 一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴关系定位。二是坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则 | | | 秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴欧投资提供公平 、公正、非歧视的营商环境。 | | | 4、人民银行上海总部召开2025年第三季度新闻发布会。人民银行上海总部货币信贷调研部副 ...

宏观信息 行业信息 综合点评及操作建议 五、宏观信息 外交部发言人宣布，国务院总理李强将于7月26日出席在上海举行的2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议开幕式并致辞。 商务部表示，打击战略矿产走私出口面临的形势依然复杂严峻，下阶段将采取建立两用物项出口管制联合执法协调中心，将违法境外实体列入出口管制管控名 单，制定发布战略矿产合规出口工作指引等举措。 国家主席习近平会见欧洲理事会主席科斯塔、欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩，并就中欧关系未来发展提出三点主张。一是坚持相互尊重，巩固伙伴关系定位。二是 坚持开放合作，妥善处理分歧摩擦。三是践行多边主义，维护国际规则秩序。另外，国务院总理李强表示，希望欧方为中国企业赴欧投资提供公平、公正、非 歧视的营商环境。 央行、农业农村部印发《关于加强金融服务农村改革 推进乡村全面振兴的意见》，提出要加大乡村振兴重点领域的金融资源投入，包括加大对粮食主产区、 产粮大县信贷资源倾斜，支持拓宽农民增收渠道等。 国家发改委表示， 2025年7350亿元中央预算内投资已基本下达完毕，重点支持现代化产业体系、现代化基础设施体系、新型城镇化和乡村全面振兴等领域项 目建设。 六、行业信 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) expects Malaysia's crude palm oil production to reach 19.5 million tons and exports to reach 17 million tons in 2025 [2] - The Indian Vegetable Oil Producers Association (IVPA) anticipates that India's palm oil imports may increase in the second half of this year, with total edible oil imports remaining at 16 million tons in the 2024/25 season ending in October [2] - As of the week ending July 22, about 8% of the US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, up from 7% the previous week and 4% the same period last year [2] - Night - time trading of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a decline. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate dropped to 68%, lower than the expected 71%. With possible high - temperature stress in the southwest and improved export prospects, US soybean futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term. In China, due to the push for soybean meal substitution and a loose supply, Dalian soybean meal futures are weak in the short term [2] - Night - time trading of rapeseed and palm oil showed a slight decline, while soybean oil fluctuated strongly. Positive fundamentals in Indonesia and expected growth in palm oil exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will support palm oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, with biofuel policies, the central price of edible oils is expected to rise slowly [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8166 for soybean oil, 9104 for palm oil, 9492 for rapeseed oil, 3025 for soybean meal, 2671 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 92, 110, 36, - 70, - 78, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 1.22%, - 3.15%, - 2.26%, - 2.84%, and 0.29% [1] - For spreads, the current values of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, and OI - P09 were 52, 44, 53, - 938, 1326, and 388 respectively, compared to previous values of 44, 20, 53, - 920, 1382, and 462 [1] - For ratio - spreads, the current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, and Y - M09 were - 34, 270, 343, 1.13, 2.70, and 5141 respectively, compared to previous values of - 21, 314, 337, 1.12, 2.61, and 4979 [1] International Futures Market - The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4244 (Malaysian ringgit/ton) for BMD palm oil, 1025 (cents/bushel) for CBOT soybeans, 56 (cents/pound) for CBOT US soybean oil, and 283 (US dollars/ton) for CBOT US soybean meal. The price changes were 48, 3, 0, and - 2 respectively, with percentage changes of 1.14%, 0.24%, 0.86%, and - 0.84% [1] Domestic Spot Market - The current spot prices of domestic products were 8280 and 8330 for Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, 9150 and 9050 for Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil, 9540 and 9460 for Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil, with percentage changes of 0.61%, 0.85%, 0.55%, 0.56%, - 0.42%, and - 0.42% respectively [1] - The current spot prices of other products were 2870 and 2890 for Nantong and Dongguan soybean meal, 2570 and 2560 for Nantong and Dongguan rapeseed meal, 7600 and 7550 for Linyi and Anyang peanuts, with percentage changes of - 2.05%, - 1.70%, - 3.38%, - 3.40%, 0.00%, and 0.00% respectively [1] - The current spot spreads were - 670 for the difference between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, 1350 for the difference between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and 240 for the difference between Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal, compared to previous values of - 670, 1310, and 239 respectively [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits for near - month products were - 311 for Malaysian palm oil, - 235 for US Gulf soybeans, - 62 for Brazilian soybeans, 93 for US West soybeans, 696 for Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and 369 for Canadian rapeseeds, compared to previous values of - 297, - 207, - 13, 129, 657, and 402 respectively [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts were 21,695 for soybean oil, 334 for palm oil, 3,487 for rapeseed oil, 40,714 for soybean meal, 0 for rapeseed meal, and 0 for peanuts, compared to previous values of 21,695, 854, 3,487, 41,446, 0, and 0 respectively [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold and silver are strengthening. The market's risk aversion demand has increased before the new tariff deadline on August 1st. The weakening of the US dollar and US Treasury yields has provided upward momentum for gold. Although the impact of the US tariff policy on economic data is smaller than expected, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant at high prices. Silver is showing strength due to the boost from industrial products. In the near term, there is a need to be vigilant against the risk of Trump's threats being realized, and gold and silver may continue to show a relatively strong performance [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2508,沪金2512,沪银2508, and沪银2512 are 790.16, 795.02, 9431.00, and 9462.00 respectively. The price increases are 7.66, 8.30, 65.00, and 50.00, with corresponding increases of 0.98%, 1.06%, 0.69%, and 0.53%. The trading volumes are 25775, 31505, 85020, and 101074 respectively, and the open interests are 42972, 104970, 117554, and 220226 respectively [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D, London Gold, and Shanghai Silver T + D are 780, 790.91, and 9368.00 respectively. The price increases are 3, 7.83, and 142.00, with corresponding increases of 0.39%, 1.00%, and 1.54%. The price of London Silver is 39.27 with an increase of 0.37 and an increase rate of 0.95% [2]. 3.3 Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and silver are 28,857 kg and 1,199,046 kg respectively, with a decrease of 5,420.00 kg in silver inventory. The COMEX gold and silver inventories are 37,488,075 and 497,984,759 respectively, with increases of 295,931.68 and 339196 respectively [2]. 3.4 Related Markets - **Indices and Yields**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and US dollar - RMB exchange rate are 97.3550, 6309.62, 4.35, 68.67, and 7.1705 respectively. The changes are - 0.49%, 0.06%, - 0.68%, 0.01%, and - 0.01% respectively [2]. 3.5 Derivatives - **ETF and CFTC Positions**: The current positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF are 44315 tons, with an increase of 1.00 ton. The CFTC speculative net positions in silver and gold are 33486 and 32895 respectively, with changes of 481 and - 1451 respectively [2]. 3.6 Macroeconomic News - **Trade Agreements**: US President Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia. The US will lower the tariff on Philippine goods from 20% to 19%, and the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero - tariff. Indonesia will remove 99% of its tariff barriers against the US, and all Indonesian products exported to the US will be subject to a 19% tariff. Indonesia will also supply key minerals to the US and sign major agreements worth hundreds of billions of dollars to purchase Boeing aircraft, US agricultural products, and US energy [3]. - **Fed - related News**: Trump said that Fed Chairman Powell is about to leave office, and he believes that the interest rate is too high and should be lowered by 3 percentage points or more. The Trump administration has pressured the Fed to cut interest rates. US Treasury Secretary Besent said that tariff revenues are "huge" and may account for 1% of the US GDP, and are expected to reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He also supports Powell to complete his term and calls for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions. A US congressman has accused Powell of perjury regarding the Fed building renovation and called for criminal charges [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: 20250723 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Li Ye - Qualification Number: F0285557 - Transaction Advisory Number: Z0002369 - Email: liye@sywgqh.com.cn - Phone: 021 - 50586241 Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are expectations of improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - **Price Trend**: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Short - term price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Downstream demand in the domestic market is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,670 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,898 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 68.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 122,075 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Short - term price may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. - **Market Data**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,854 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 4.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 118,225 tons with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. Other Metals - **Aluminum**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,652 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.88 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,425 tons with a daily increase of 3,725 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,550 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 570 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,530 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 207.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 207,876 tons with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 185 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,015 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 25.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 264,925 tons with a daily decrease of 3,475 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 33,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 85.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,885 tons with a daily decrease of 50 tons [2].