Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange market maintained strong resilience and vitality in September, with cross - border capital flows remaining active and balanced, and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market being relatively balanced. The total scale of China's foreign - related payments and receipts in the first three quarters reached a record high [1]. - The prices of crude oil, precious metals, and stock indices showed different trends. Crude oil prices were difficult to reverse the downward trend; precious metals experienced significant adjustments at high levels; stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: As of October 21, the total debt of the US federal government exceeded $38 trillion for the first time, just over two months after reaching $37 trillion in mid - August [5]. - **Domestic News**: In September, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group in urban China was 17.7%, 7.2% for the 25 - 29 age group, and 3.9% for the 30 - 59 age group [6]. - **Industry News**: In the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739,500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [7]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.53%, the European STOXX 50 index decreased by 0.47%, and the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.10%. ICE Brent crude oil increased by 4.36%, while London gold and silver decreased by 0.64% and 0.46% respectively. Other varieties also showed different degrees of increase or decrease [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial Products** - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices were about to enter a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment was expected to remain loose, and external funds were also likely to flow in. The market style might return to value in the fourth quarter [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The central bank was expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, and there might be reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, which would support the price of treasury bond futures [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 1.65% at night, but the downward trend of oil prices was difficult to reverse [2][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.13% at night. The operating rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The methanol market fluctuated more due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices fluctuated on Wednesday. Supply pressure might gradually emerge, and demand support was relatively limited. The market was expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. After continuous declines, the market sentiment gradually stabilized [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures closed slightly up, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both were in the process of inventory digestion, and the market was still cautious [18][19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices adjusted significantly at high levels. After a rapid rise, there were profit - taking positions, and the driving factors weakened, leading to sharp price adjustments [3][20]. - **Copper**: The supply of copper concentrates remained tight, and the smelting output continued to grow. The Indonesian mine accident might lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The smelting output was expected to continue to increase. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices might be weaker than foreign ones, and the overall price might fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply increased, demand showed some growth, and inventory decreased. The futures price fluctuated and rose. It was expected to remain volatile in the short term, and the downward adjustment space was limited [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The double - coking futures oscillated at night. The steel price and demand showed some improvement, but the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits could not be ignored. The short - term market was expected to oscillate at a high level [24][25]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices stabilized. The demand for iron ore was supported, and the global iron ore shipment decreased recently. The port inventory decreased rapidly. The market was expected to be strong and fluctuate upward [26]. - **Steel**: Steel prices were stable and improving. The supply pressure was gradually emerging, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not significant. The market was expected to be bullish in the medium term [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and rose at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market was expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats prices were weak at night. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil increased, but the market was under pressure due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade [29]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weak at night. The global sugar market entered the inventory accumulation stage, and the domestic sugar market was expected to fluctuate in the short term [30]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices oscillated. The US cotton market was in a short - term oscillation. The domestic cotton market was under pressure from weak demand, but the price was supported by factors such as slow harvesting progress and rising purchase prices. It was expected to be strong and fluctuate in the short term [31]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index was strongly oscillating. Maersk's price increase in November indicated its intention to support prices. The market continued to bet on the year - end peak season, and the upward driving force was accumulating. The far - month contract was slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiation [32].

| | 1、巴西植物油行业协会Abiove预测该国2025/26年度大豆产量将达到创纪录的1.785亿吨，高于 | | --- | --- | | | 去年的1.718亿吨。2、印尼能源部长Bahlil Lahadalia表示，印尼2025年1-9月生物柴油消费量 | | 行业 | 为1057万公升，较去年同期的961万公升增加近10%。3、据马来西亚棕榈油协会（MPOA）发布的数 | | 信息 | 据，马来西亚10月1-20日棕榈油产量预估增加10.77%，其中马来半岛增加4.54%，沙巴增加 | | | 21.99%，沙捞越增加16.69%，婆罗洲增加20.45%。 | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕震荡收涨，最新出口检验报告显示，截至2025年10月16日的一周，美国大豆 | | | 出口检验量为1,474,354吨，高于市场预期区间，较一周增长45%。巴西新季大豆播种有序推进， | | | 根据AgRural数据截至上周四，巴西2025/26年度大豆种植率达到24%，高于前一周的14%和去年同 | | | 期的18%。近期市场对于中美贸易关系缓和预期升温，受此提振美豆期价有所回暖。国内方面，市 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - After experiencing high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index will enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents are likely to increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the upward market trend, considering the expected increase in pro - growth policies in the fourth quarter and the possible resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style may return to value in the fourth quarter and be more balanced than in the third quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with decreases of 20.80, 21.20, 20.20, and 20.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 21714.00, 65140.00, 8023.00, and 2057.00, and the positions were 38677.00, 151558.00, 55037.00, and 4041.00 respectively. The position changes were - 3011.00, - 6000.00, - 1150.00, and 708.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts decreased slightly, with decreases of 3.80, 1.80, 2.80, and 1.80. The trading volumes were 11040.00, 31434.00, 3566.00, and 1049.00, and the positions were 14291.00, 59769.00, 13098.00, and 1315.00 respectively. The position changes were - 219.00, - 2561.00, - 338.00, and 283.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts decreased significantly, with decreases of 57.80, 56.20, 55.20, and 39.20. The trading volumes were 23265.00, 68879.00, 12798.00, and 4297.00, and the positions were 45760.00, 131680.00, 51376.00, and 7623.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4745.00, - 8301.00, - 643.00, and 1052.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts decreased, with decreases of 35.80, 36.20, 35.40, and 34.60. The trading volumes were 35068.00, 120919.00, 18115.00, and 8259.00, and the positions were 68005.00, 180451.00, 78082.00, and 15098.00 respectively. The position changes were - 4046.00, - 10035.00, - 2049.00, and 2464.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 10.60, 2.00, - 53.40, and - 74.00 respectively, compared with the previous values of - 11.00, 0.60, - 56.00, and - 78.20 [1] II. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous day's closing prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed, with the CSI 300 down 0.33%, the SSE 50 up 0.09%, the CSI 500 down 0.80%, and the CSI 1000 down 0.43%. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, telecommunications, and utilities sectors had positive growth rates of 0.63%, 0.02%, and 0.31% respectively, while the raw materials, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors had negative growth rates of - 0.99%, - 0.86%, and - 0.95% respectively [1] III. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis differences between futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) and their corresponding spot indexes (CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000) showed certain changes compared with the day before yesterday [1] IV. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all had positive growth rates of 1.36%, 2.06%, 2.13%, and 3.02% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, and DAX Index had positive growth rates of 0.65%, 3.37%, and 0.29% respectively, while the S&P 500 had no change [1] V. Macro Information - US President Trump expressed his expectation to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but also mentioned that the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there is currently no information to provide on the specific issue [2] - The Asset Management Association of China is about to release a draft for soliciting opinions on the performance comparison benchmark rules for public funds. Multiple fund managers, mainly leading ones, have submitted a batch of indexes intended as performance comparison benchmarks, covering various types such as broad - based, industry, and style. However, the regulatory authorities are relatively cautious about the number of indexes entering the actual benchmark library [2] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao met with Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury to discuss Airbus' cooperation with China. Wang emphasized that Airbus should continue to strengthen cooperation with China based on the commissioning of the second A320 final assembly line in Tianjin. China will continue to play the role of the round - table meeting for foreign - funded enterprises to help solve problems and concerns in Airbus' development and operation in China [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released the unemployment rate data for different age groups in September. The unemployment rate of the urban labor force aged 16 - 24 was 17.7%, 7.2% for those aged 25 - 29, and 3.9% for those aged 30 - 59 [2] VI. Industry Information - The "Energy - Saving and New - Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 3.0" was officially released, proposing that by 2040, the penetration rate of new - energy passenger vehicles will reach over 85%, with BEV accounting for 80%. L4 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will be fully popularized, and L5 - level intelligent and connected vehicles will start to enter the market [2] - The National Press and Publication Administration announced the game version numbers for October, with 159 domestic games and 7 imported games approved. The number of approvals was at a high level this year, second only to 173 in August. Many well - known game companies such as Tencent, Zhongqingbao, and 37 Interactive Entertainment had new games on the list [2] - Chinese Deputy Minister of Natural Resources Sun Shuxian said that the total output value of China's geographic information industry in 2025 will increase to nearly one trillion yuan. China will strengthen the construction of spatio - temporal information infrastructure, consolidate the data resource base, and prioritize the opening of data resources closely related to people's livelihood and in urgent social demand to the public [2] - According to data from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, in the first three quarters, the total transport turnover, passenger volume, and cargo volume of the civil aviation industry were 1220.3 billion ton - kilometers, 580 million passengers, and 739500 tons respectively, with year - on - year increases of 10.3%, 5.2%, and 14% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends, with the T2512 contract remaining unchanged and its open interest decreasing. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of various treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. Key - term treasury bond yields in China and overseas markets had different changes. The overall market environment was affected by multiple factors, and it was expected that the central bank would implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which would support the prices of treasury bond futures [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous trading day saw the prices of treasury bond futures vary. For example, the TS2512 contract fell by 0.014 (0.01%), the TF2512 contract rose by 0.020 (0.02%), the T2512 contract remained unchanged, and the TL2512 contract rose by 0.020 (0.02%) [2]. - **Open Interest and Volume**: The open interest of TS2512 decreased by 1250, while that of TF2603 increased by 475. The trading volume of each contract also differed, with the TL2512 having a trading volume of 113354 [2]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were 0.080, 0.110, 0.310, and 0.300 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of various treasury bond futures was at a low level, such as 1.5711 for TS2512, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 rate increased by 0.37bp, and GC007 rate increased by 1.8bp [2]. - **Yields of Chinese Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of Chinese key - term treasury bonds had different changes. The 10Y - term treasury bond yield decreased by 0.98bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 27.73bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Yields of Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds generally decreased. The 10Y - term US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y - term German treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, and the 10Y - term Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 0.4bp [2]. Macro and Market Environment - **Domestic Situation**: Treasury bond prices generally rose, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond decreased to 1.763%. The central bank's net injection was 685 billion yuan, the LPR quote remained unchanged this month, Shibor was at a low level, and the capital was loose. The domestic economy had mixed performance, with industrial added - value growth better than expected, but consumption, investment, and real estate still facing challenges [3]. - **International Situation**: The US president released a conciliatory signal, the market's risk - aversion sentiment eased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut increased, leading to a decline in US treasury bond yields. The US government was in a shutdown state, and the federal debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars [3].

20251023申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能区间波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价震荡整理。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘， | | | 铜 | 但冶炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源 投资放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大 | 可能偏强 | | | 概率导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下 | | | | 游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨，LME低库存导致现货升水明显。短期锌精矿加工费总体回 | | | | 升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度 | | | 锌 | 增加。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持 | 可能区间波 | | | 续疲弱。由于国内外库存状况迥异，国内锌价可能弱于国外。锌供求总体差 | 动 | | | 异不明显，总体可能区间波动。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化 | | | | 。 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were raised by 50. For drawn wire PP, Sinopec's prices were stable, and some prices from PetroChina were lowered by 50. Fundamentally, polyolefin prices have gradually stopped falling and the price center has shifted downwards, influenced by both crude oil and the need for self - digestion in the fundamentals. After continuous declines, polyolefins started to rebound following crude oil, and market sentiment gradually stabilized [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Polyolefin Futures (LL&PP) - **Price Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6936, 6978, and 7009 respectively, with increases of 53, 61, and 57 compared to the prices two days ago, and涨幅 of 0.77%, 0.88%, and 0.82% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6619, 6665, and 6680 respectively, with increases of 36, 38, and 33 compared to the prices two days ago, and涨幅 of 0.55%, 0.57%, and 0.50% respectively [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 234079, 20723, and 235 respectively, and the open interests were 549864, 61919, and 935 respectively, with open interest changes of - 12101, - 1145, and 85 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 253179, 22456, and 866 respectively, and the open interests were 633255, 124726, and 4998 respectively, with open interest changes of - 15845, 2422, and 262 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 42, - 31, and 73 respectively, compared to previous values of - 34, - 35, and 69. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 46, - 15, and 61 respectively, compared to previous values of - 44, - 20, and 64 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - **Prices**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2264 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2270 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 523 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] Spot Market - **LL Spot Prices**: In the East China market, the price range was 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 6850 - 7150 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 7100 - 7500 yuan/ton. The previous price ranges were the same except for an incorrect record in the North China market (8100 - 8250 yuan/ton was wrongly added) [2] - **PP Spot Prices**: In the East China market, the price range was 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton; in the North China market, it was 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton; in the South China market, it was 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and the previous price ranges were the same [2] Market News - On Wednesday (October 22, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.50 per barrel, up $1.26 or 2.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.34 - $59.83. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.59 per barrel, up $1.27 or 2.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.38 - $64.17 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is likely to remain loose, and domestic residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4519.80, 4506.80, 4482.00, and 4447.20 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4588.60, 4577.60, 4550.20, and 4515.00 respectively. The price increases were 71.00, 73.40, 71.20, and 71.00 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 300 were 1.57, 1.63, 1.59, and 1.60. The trading volumes were 29776.00, 77133.00, 12638.00, and 2919.00 respectively, and the open interests were 41688.00, 157558.00, 56187.00, and 3333.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were 1009.00, 1159.00, - 780.00, and - 73.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2972.00, 2970.40, 2972.00, and 2969.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 3004.20, 3004.80, 3005.60, and 3004.00 respectively. The price increases were 33.00, 35.20, 35.20, and 35.20 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the SSE 50 were 1.11, 1.19, 1.19, and 1.19. The trading volumes were 12905.00, 35150.00, 4265.00, and 1113.00 respectively, and the open interests were 14510.00, 62330.00, 13436.00, and 1032.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were - 484.00, 1866.00, - 42.00, and 76.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 6972.00, 6909.20, 6747.40, and 6567.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7108.80, 7052.80, 6886.20, and 6709.80 respectively. The price increases were 138.40, 144.00, 140.40, and 145.40 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 500 were 1.99, 2.08, 2.08, and 2.22. The trading volumes were 33289.00, 89215.00, 17433.00, and 5710.00 respectively, and the open interests were 50505.00, 139981.00, 52019.00, and 6571.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were 1557.00, 4488.00, - 549.00, and 364.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7137.60, 7059.20, 6841.60, and 6637.40 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7261.00, 7182.80, 6966.80, and 6753.60 respectively. The price increases were 126.40, 129.40, 130.20, and 126.40 respectively, and the corresponding price increase rates of the CSI 1000 were 1.77, 1.83, 1.90, and 1.91. The trading volumes were 44744.00, 151318.00, 26613.00, and 10398.00 respectively, and the open interests were 72051.00, 190486.00, 80131.00, and 12634.00 respectively. The changes in open interests were 985.00, 832.00, - 2419.00, and 1567.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 11.00, 0.60, - 56.00, and - 78.20 respectively, while the previous values were - 13.00, - 1.60, - 62.80, and - 78.40 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4607.87, with a trading volume of 215.71 billion lots and a total trading value of 5513.90 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4538.22, with a trading volume of 218.42 billion lots and a total trading value of 5057.99 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.53 [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3007.26, with a trading volume of 55.30 billion lots and a total trading value of 1472.70 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 2974.86, with a trading volume of 53.18 billion lots and a total trading value of 1283.62 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.09 [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7185.62, with a trading volume of 205.97 billion lots and a total trading value of 3449.91 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7069.64, with a trading volume of 176.83 billion lots and a total trading value of 3146.75 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.64 [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7344.05, with a trading volume of 237.25 billion lots and a total trading value of 3481.59 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7239.18, with a trading volume of 218.58 billion lots and a total trading value of 3284.45 billion yuan. The price increase rate was 1.45 [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Different industries in the CSI 300 had different price increase rates. For example, the price increase rates of energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were - 0.58%, 1.10%, 1.53%, and 0.60% respectively; the price increase rates of major consumption, medical and health, real - estate and finance, and information technology were 0.16%, 0.97%, 0.52%, and 3.74% respectively; the price increase rates of telecommunications services and public utilities were 5.72% and - 0.36% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **CSI 300 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 300 were - 19.27, - 30.27, - 57.67, and - 92.87 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 18.42, - 31.42, - 56.22, and - 91.02 respectively [1] - **SSE 50 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the SSE 50 were - 3.06, - 2.46, - 1.66, and - 3.26 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 2.86, - 4.46, - 2.86, and - 5.06 respectively [1] - **CSI 500 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 500 were - 76.82, - 132.82, - 299.42, and - 475.82 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 97.64, - 160.44, - 322.24, and - 502.64 respectively [1] - **CSI 1000 - related Basis**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 were - 83.05, - 161.25, - 377.25, and - 590.45 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 101.58, - 179.98, - 397.58, and - 601.78 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Main Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3916.33, 13077.32, 8038.31, and 3083.72 respectively. The previous two - day values were 3863.89, 12813.21, 7870.96, and 2993.45 respectively. The price increase rates were 1.36%, 2.06%, 2.13%, and 3.02% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26027.55, 49185.50, 6735.35, and 24330.03 respectively. The previous two - day values were 25858.83, 47582.15, 6735.13, and 24258.80 respectively. The price increase rates were 0.65%, 3.37%, 0.00%, and 0.29% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - US President Trump said he would visit China early next year. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman responded that no information could be provided for the time being [2] - Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao held a video conference with EU Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security Valdis Dombrovskis, discussing key China - EU economic and trade issues such as export controls and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles. He also had a phone call with Dutch Minister of Economic Affairs Micky Adriaansens, discussing issues related to Nexperia. Wang stated that China's recent measures on rare - earth export controls were normal actions to improve the export control system in accordance with laws and regulations, and urged the Dutch side to resolve issues related to Nexperia properly [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a policy - interpretation round - table meeting for foreign - invested enterprises, with over 170 representatives of foreign - invested enterprises and foreign business associations in China attending. Deputy Minister of Commerce Ling Ji emphasized that China's export controls were responsible actions to maintain world peace and regional security and stability and fulfill non - proliferation obligations, while also approving compliant trade in accordance with laws to maintain the stability of the global industrial and supply chains [2] - The Ministry of Culture and Tourism released data showing that in the first three quarters, the number of domestic tourist trips was 4.998 billion, an increase of 0.761 billion year - on - year, representing a growth rate of 18%. The domestic tourism consumption was 4.85 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 11.5% [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The National Medical Products Administration will further improve the legal and standard systems, increase support for R & D innovation, improve the quality and efficiency of review and approval, strengthen the safety bottom - line for high - level medical devices, accelerate the launch of innovative products, and promote the innovative and high - quality development of the medical device industry [2] - As of the end of June 2025, the total asset management scale of China's trust industry reached 32.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 20.11%. This was the first time that China's trust scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan, ranking third after insurance asset management and public funds in terms of asset scale [2] - Guangzhou announced a new blueprint for future industries, planning to develop six core future industries, including intelligent unmanned systems, embodied intelligence, cell and gene technology, future networks and quantum technology, advanced new materials, and deep - sea and deep - space exploration [2] - Shanghai issued an action plan to promote the high - quality development of the construction industry, proposing 21 specific measures in eight aspects, such as encouraging the integration of homogeneous businesses of construction enterprises, building a new model for real - estate development, and accelerating urban renewal [2] 3.7 Stock Index Views - The three major US stock indexes showed mixed performance. In the previous trading day, the stock index rose significantly, with the communication and electronics sectors leading the gains and the coal sector leading the losses. The market trading volume was 1.89 trillion yuan. On October 20, the margin trading balance increased by 396 million yuan to 2.413231 trillion yuan. The volatile situation of China - US tariffs has led to frequent shifts between long and short positions in the stock index. Meanwhile, during the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee from October 20th to 23rd, market funds were relatively cautious [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak. The prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The weakness of polyolefins was due to the drag of crude oil and the need to digest spot goods after the long holiday. With the continuation of the China-US game, crude oil was under pressure, weakening cost support. In the short term, polyolefin prices fluctuated passively with the cost side, and market sentiment was cautious. However, after continuous declines in chemicals, the decline speed might slow down [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices of January, May, and September contracts were 6883, 6917, and 6952 respectively, with changes of 4, -4, and 0 and percentage changes of 0.06%, -0.06%, and 0.00%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6583, 6627, and 6647, with changes of 18, 9, and -3 and percentage changes of 0.27%, 0.14%, and -0.05% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL's January, May, and September contracts were 286298, 25219, and 168, and the open interests were 561965, 63064, and 850, with changes of -135, 1569, and 20. For PP, the trading volumes were 318981, 27402, and 831, and the open interests were 649100, 122304, and 4736, with changes of -5749, 2797, and 215 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL's 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were -34, -35, and 69, compared with previous values of -42, -31, and 73. For PP, the current spreads were -44, -20, and 64, compared with previous values of -53, -32, and 85 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2270 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 522 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Mid - stream Products**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450, 6850 - 7150, and 7100 - 7500. For PP, the price ranges were 6450 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6450 - 6600 [2] News - On Tuesday (October 21), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.82 per barrel, up $0.30 or 0.52% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.99 - $58.28. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.32 per barrel, up $0.31 or 0.51%, with a trading range of $60.35 - $62.09 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, with possible reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter, and may initiate treasury bond purchase and sale operations. Market liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of treasury bond futures [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices generally rose in the previous trading day. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.03%, and the open interest increased [2]. - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The open interest and trading volume of different - term contracts showed different changes, such as the open interest of TS2512 increasing by 1619 and that of TS2603 decreasing by 32 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates showed mixed changes. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate rose 0.8bp, DR007 interest rate fell 0.89bp, and GC007 interest rate fell 0.3bp [2]. - The yields of key - term treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes. The 10Y - term treasury bond yield fell 0.52bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 28.04bp [2]. - Overseas, the 10Y - term treasury bond yields of the US, Germany, and Japan all declined. The US 10Y - term treasury bond yield fell 2bp, the German 10Y - term treasury bond yield fell 2bp, and the Japanese 10Y - term treasury bond yield fell 0.9bp [2]. 3.3 Macro News and Information - The central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 21, with a net investment of 685 billion yuan [3]. - The US President continued to send easing signals, the market risk - aversion sentiment eased, and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, leading to a decline in US bond yields [3]. - In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above the designated size was better than expected, the consumption growth rate declined, the investment growth rate turned negative, and the year - on - year decline rates of real estate investment and sales widened [3]. - The European leaders issued a joint statement supporting the negotiation to promote a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict [3]. 3.4 Market Interest Rate Changes - In the money market, most interest rates of silver deposit - interbank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending showed an upward trend [3]. - US bond yields collectively declined, with the 10 - year US bond yield falling 2.49bp to 3.953% [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the strong side, while zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] - For copper, the concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2] - For zinc, the short - term zinc concentrate processing fee has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets has increased on a weekly basis. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are increasing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real - estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap, long - term supporting copper prices. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 85,380 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 15 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,597 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.22 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 137,175 tons, and the daily change was - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Night - session zinc prices closed higher. LME low inventory has led to a significant spot premium. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Suggest to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,855 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 85 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,994 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 299.34 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 37,325 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,890 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 0 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,781 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.36 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 487,125 tons, and the daily change was - 4,100 tons [2] - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 120,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,210 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 206.29 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 250,476 tons, and the daily change was - 54 tons [2] - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,060 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 195 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,993 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 39.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 247,300 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2] - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 279,340 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 350 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,475 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 56.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 2,735 tons, and the daily change was 0 tons [2]