本报告的信息均资料来源于公开资料，本公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公 正，但文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买 免 责 声 明 卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信息、建 议，不得用于未经允许的其他任何用途。如因投资者将本报告所提供的信息、建议用于 非法目的，所产生的一切经济、法律责任均与本公司无关。 2、美国农业部(USDA)周二称，美国在10月开始的2025/26年度糖产量预计将达到941万 短吨的历史高位，受助于甘蔗糖产量增加。美国农业部将甘蔗糖产量预估从1月的420万 短吨上调至430万短吨，维持甜菜糖产量在510万短吨不变。随着这一调整，最终的产量 将超过此前在2024/25年度创下的纪录。在前几年经历了供应紧张之后，创纪录高的产 量预计将改善当地市场的糖供应，但可能会降低对农民支付的价格。衡量供应水平的指 标--糖库存/使用比预估为15.9%，远高于美国农业部通常视为市场充足的13.5%的水平 。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on platinum and palladium [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The long - term core logic for platinum and palladium remains unchanged, but short - term fluctuations are intensifying due to technical corrections and Fed personnel changes. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump has led to short - term dollar strengthening and affected platinum and palladium prices. However, in the long run, factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit, the global central bank's gold - buying spree, and the supply - demand situation in the industry support the prices of platinum and palladium [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For platinum futures (pt2606, pt2608, pt2610), the current prices are 551.15, 545.00, and 539.00 respectively, with increases of 10.35, 12.70, and 11.55, and increases of 1.91%, 2.39%, and 2.19% respectively. For palladium futures (pd2606, pd2608, pd2610), the current prices are 439.10, 436.00, and 430.65 respectively, with increases of 7.25, 8.30, and 7.90, and increases of 1.68%, 1.94%, and 1.87% respectively [1] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of platinum and palladium futures are 12143 and 4151 respectively. The trading volumes of platinum futures are 6476, 269, and 53 respectively, and those of palladium futures are 2850, 57, and 47 respectively [1] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of platinum futures are - 5.77, 0.38, and 6.38 respectively, and those of palladium futures are - 16.1, - 13, and - 7.65 respectively [1] Spot Market - **Prices**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai platinum, London platinum, Chow Tai Fook platinum, and Lao Fengxiang platinum are 545.38 yuan/gram, 2160.00 US dollars/ounce, 836.00 yuan/gram, and 960.00 yuan/gram respectively. The previous closing prices of Chinese palladium and Russian palladium are 423.00 yuan/gram and 4316.12 rubles/gram respectively. The price changes and increase/decrease rates vary [1] - **Ratios**: The current values of platinum/palladium, Shanghai platinum/London platinum, pt2608 - pt2606, pt2610 - pt2606, Chinese palladium/Russian palladium, and pd2608 - pd2606 are 1.29, 1.09, - 6.15, - 12.15, 1.07, and - 3.10 respectively, different from the previous values [1] Inventory - **Platinum**: The current NYMEX inventory is 583,369.21 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 319,682.01 ounces, the trading volume of the Gold Exchange is 6,991.09 million yuan, and the trading volume is 128.00 kilograms. Compared with the previous values, the registered warehouse receipts decreased by 6081.4 ounces, and the trading volume and trading amount increased significantly [1] - **Palladium**: The current NYMEX inventory is 186,863.10 ounces, the registered warehouse receipts are 148,317.64 ounces. The inventory decreased by 4010.4 ounces compared with the previous value, and the registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged [1] Related Derivatives - **Indices**: The current values of the US dollar index, S&P index, US Treasury yield, Nasdaq index, Dow Jones index, and US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 96.92, 6,941.47, 4.18, 23,066.47, 50,121.40, and 6.94 respectively, with corresponding increases or decreases compared with the previous values [1] - **Gold and Silver Futures**: The current prices of Shanghai gold (2604, 2606, 2608) and Shanghai silver (2604, 2606, 2608) futures have increased compared with the previous closing prices [1] Macroeconomic News - **Fed Policy**: The Fed maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%, pausing after three consecutive 25 - basis - point cuts. Fed Chair candidate Waller supports a 25 - basis - point cut, consistent with Trump - appointed director Milan [2] - **Fed Chair Nomination**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair, but this nomination faces opposition from some senators. Warsh has shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance in recent years [2] - **China's Economic Data**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing market demand tightened, but production remained in an expansion state, and the industrial structure continued to optimize. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a 0.8 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing industries were 50.1% and 52% respectively, showing stable and positive development [2] - **PBOC Meeting**: The People's Bank of China held a 2026 payment and settlement work meeting, requiring efforts to promote the high - quality development of the modern payment system, including accelerating the construction of the RMB cross - border payment system, strengthening supervision, and optimizing payment services [3]

20260212申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合理合法使用本报告所提供的信 ...

2026 年 2 月 12 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1133.00 | 1130.400 | 20505 | 20944 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1123.96 | 1121.220 | 19711 | 20284 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | 9.04 | 9.180 | 794 | 660 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | 0.80% | 0.82% | 4.03% | 3.25% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 89881 | 160510 | 134806 | 211818 | | | | 成交量 | 44843 | 217933 | 2 ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/2/12 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8110 | 8906 | 9131 | 2773 | 2394 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 12 | -34 | 35 | 39 | 26 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.15% | -0.38% | -3.15% | 1.43% | 1.10% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views - The futures and spot markets of the pig industry show a divergent trend. The main futures contract LH2605 closed slightly up 0.30% to 11,555 yuan/ton, and market sentiment rebounded slightly. However, the spot market remained weak, with the national average price falling to 11.44 yuan/kg. The core contradiction lies in the oversupply situation. [2] - The daily output of large-scale farms increased to 351,400 heads, while the sales of slaughtered pork were sluggish, and demand was weak. The self-breeding and self-raising model in the industry has fallen into losses. It is expected that there is no strong basis for a short-term rebound in pig prices, and the market tomorrow may show a narrow-range fluctuation and a generally stable trend. [4] Group 3: Summary Based on the Directory Futures Market - **Price and Change**: The previous day's closing prices of contracts in January, March, May, July, September, and November were 13,285, 10,845, 11,555, 12,260, 13,210, and 13,150 respectively, with price increases of 80, 100, 85, 100, 95, and 120, and increases of 0.61%, 0.93%, 0.74%, 0.82%, 0.72%, and 0.92% respectively. [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 406, 22,688, 52,452, 7,703, 5,579, and 2,487 respectively, and the open interests were 2,662, 46,259, 147,570, 50,197, 37,733, and 24,032 respectively. The changes in open interests were +174, -5,721, -1,979, +172, -275, and -15 respectively. [2] - **Price Spreads**: The current price spreads between January - March, March - May, May - July, July - September, September - November, and November - January were 2,440, -710, -705, -950, 60, and -135 respectively, compared with previous values of 2,460, -725, -690, -955, 85, and -175 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Price and Change**: The current spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Liaoning were 11.94, 10.8, 11.21, 11.47, 11.47, and 11.6 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.12, -21.6, -0.24, 0, 0, and -0.09 respectively. [2] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 727 on the previous day, with no change from two days ago. [2]

品排行国期货 20260211申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | | shenyb@sywggh. com. cn 021-50582113 11.1 J | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9 H | | | 前1日收盘价 | 1371.5 | 1119.0 | 1196.5 | 1833.5 | 1665. 0 | 1739.5 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 1393.5 | 1147.0 | 1222.5 | 1863.5 | 1703. 5 | 1774.0 | | Eil | 煮跌 | -22. 0 | -28.0 | -26.0 | -30.0 | -38.5 | -34.5 | | 黑 | 煮跌幅 | -1.58% | -2. 44% | -2. 13% | -1.61% | -2. 26% | -1.94% | | 00 | 成交堂 | 1478 | 711282 | 32661 | 61 | 13882 | 433 | | 场 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper price rose 0.17% overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output decreased month-on-month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is persistently weak. The copper price may enter an adjustment phase in the short term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price fell 0.08% overnight. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is persistently weak. The zinc price may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. It is recommended to pay attention to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,150 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was -10 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,100 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was -76.10 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 184,300 tons, and the daily change was +1,025 tons [2]. - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,435 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was -200 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,105 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was -34.34 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 488,975 tons, and the daily change was -2,000 tons [2]. - Zinc: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was -35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,398 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was -19.55 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,925 tons, and the daily change was -675 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,090 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was -5,600 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,550 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was -212.22 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 285,072 tons, and the daily change was -210 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,640 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was -135 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,978 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was -50.95 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 232,750 tons, and the daily change was -100 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 381,260 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 6,150 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 49,230 US dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was -159.00 US dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 7,030 tons, and the daily change was -55 tons [2].

明 免责声明 原油：sc夜盘上涨0.21%。伊朗和美国6日在阿曼首都马斯喀特举行间接谈判。伊朗外长阿 拉格齐在谈判结束后表示，谈判开局良好，双方已就继续谈判达成共识，但避免威胁与施 压是任何对话的必要前提。阿曼外交大臣巴德尔6日在社交媒体上发文说，各方计划在适 当时候再次举行谈判，伊美双方将把谈判结果带回各自首都进行审慎研究。哈萨克斯坦原 油出口量也备受市场关注。据四家贸易消息人士向路透社透露，由于Tengiz油田在1月份 因电力设施火灾而缓慢恢复，哈萨克斯坦通过俄罗斯的主要石油出口路线2月份石油出口 量可能下降多达35%。 甲醇：甲醇夜盘下跌0.09%。国内煤（甲醇）制烯烃装置平均开工负荷在80.61%，环比上 升0.55个百分点。本周期内，受部分东部MTO装置开车、提负影响，导致国内CTO/MTO开工 整体上升。截止2月5日，国内甲醇整体装置开工负荷为78.32%，环比提升0.76个百分点， 较去年同期提升2.12个百分点。截至2月5日，沿海地区（江苏、浙江和华南地区）甲醇库 存在139.5万吨（目前沿海甲醇库存处于历史中高位置），相比1月29日下降3.5万吨，降 免责声明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious view on various commodities, with some marked as "cautiously bearish" and others as "cautiously bullish". For example, crude oil, methanol, etc., are marked as "cautiously bearish", while gold, silver, etc., are marked as "cautiously bullish" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple aspects including economic data, geopolitical events, and market trends. It mentions that the US is at a critical stage of its economic cycle, and the global market is affected by various factors such as US employment data, geopolitical negotiations, and supply - demand changes in different industries [1][5]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term, while the short - term is affected by data announcements; the crude oil market is influenced by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels last week. US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 14% week - on - week but increased by 3% year - on - year. As of February 5, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,136,099 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.4%. The US non - farm employment data to be released this Wednesday is expected to show an increase of 69,000 in non - farm employment in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Futures markets mostly rose at night, with propylene up over 2% and glass down over 1% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data, which may affect subsequent interest rate cut expectations. After a sharp rise in January, precious metals had a significant shock. In the long - term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases still support the upward trend of gold. The central bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. It is recommended to wait and see for silver due to its high volatility and relatively low gold - silver ratio [2]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran and the US held indirect negotiations in Muscat. The negotiation started well, and both sides agreed to continue. Kazakhstan's oil export volume in February may drop by up to 35% due to the slow recovery of the Tengiz oil field [3]. Stock Index - US stock indexes were mixed. The stock index rose slightly the previous trading day, with the media sector leading the rise and the real estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 523 million yuan on February 9. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [3]. 3. Main News of the Day International News - Ray Dalio warned that the US is at the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, on the verge of order collapse and conflict. He suggested that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [5]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. Industry News - An article in Qiushi emphasized the importance of cultivating future industries for high - quality development [7]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas markets on February 9 and 10, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, etc. Some indexes and commodities rose, while others fell [8]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market expects the new Fed chairman's policy to be a combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The bond futures price is expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran - US negotiations started well, and Kazakhstan's oil export volume may decline [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.09% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. The domestic production area is in the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weak. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and soda ash futures also fell. The glass supply - demand situation is gradually improving, and the supply of soda ash is slightly shrinking. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. They are affected by US data announcements. In the long - term, gold is expected to rise, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver [17]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.17% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.08% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market was flat at night. The aluminum production rate is high, but the downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, low inventory and stable demand support the price [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and production plan of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after volatility reduction [21]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded at night. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand growth is limited. After the Spring Festival, factors such as iron - making production, mine operation, and import policies should be noted [22]. - **Steel**: Steel production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The construction downstream demand is weakening. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The steel mill's demand for iron ore is expected to be based on on - demand replenishment, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean meal price is also affected by high inventory and sufficient supply expectations [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia decreased, and the production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continued to fluctuate. The global sugar supply is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price maintained a range - bound trend. The textile factory's restocking is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of direct subsidy policies [29]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures market continued to be weak. The supply in the spot market exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 4.57%. The spot freight rate in February is relatively stable, and the market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the impact of export demand and price increase letters should be noted [31].