Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal declined significantly. The September USDA report raised the planting area to 81.1 million acres, lowered the estimated yield per acre of US soybeans to 53.5 bushels, and the reduction was lower than market expectations. It raised the estimated soybean crushing volume to 2.555 billion bushels and lowered the estimated export volume to 1.685 billion bushels, ultimately increasing the ending inventory of US soybeans in 2025/26 to 300 million bushels. Currently, US soybeans are gradually entering the harvest and listing period, and the harvest pressure will gradually emerge. Argentina temporarily cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which will put short - term pressure on the soybean market. It is expected that soybean meal will mainly operate under pressure [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Recently, Sabah, Malaysia, was affected by flood weather, but concerns about production have cooled down. According to high - frequency data, SPPOMA estimated that the palm oil production in Malaysia from September 1 - 15, 2025 decreased by 8.05% compared with the same period last month. In terms of exports, SGS data showed that the estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from September 1 - 15 decreased by 24.7%. Both the production and exports of Malaysian palm oil declined, and Argentina cancelled export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal, which pressured the soybean oil price and dragged down the short - term performance of the oil sector [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Domestic Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures were 8366 for soybean oil, 9360 for palm oil, 10143 for rapeseed oil, 3034 for soybean meal, 2548 for rapeseed meal, and 8844 for peanuts. The price changes were 38, 44, 75, 20, 5, and 26 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.46%, 0.47%, - 3.15%, 0.66%, 0.20%, and 0.29% [1]. - Spreads: The current spreads of Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, OI9 - 1, Y - P09, OI - Y09, OI - P09 were - 332, - 558, - 728, - 768, 1381, and 613 respectively, with previous values of - 338, - 524, - 569, - 802, 1466, and 664 [1]. - Ratios and spreads: The current values of M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, M - RM09, M/RM09, Y/M09, Y - M09 were - 143, - 81, 444, 1.18, 2.78, and 5143 respectively, with previous values of - 115, - 87, 464, 1.19, 2.76, and 5091 [1]. International Futures - Prices: The previous day's closing prices of international futures were 4363 for BMD palm oil (Ringgit/ton), 1011 for CBOT soybeans (cents/bushel), 50 for CBOT US soybean oil (cents/pound), and 280 for CBOT US soybean meal (dollars/ton). The price changes were - 5, - 15, - 1, and - 4 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.11%, - 1.44%, - 1.90%, and - 1.41% [1]. Spot Market Domestic Spot - Prices: The current spot prices of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil, Guangzhou 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil, and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil were 8580, 8700, 9380, 9270, 10370, and 10370 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.23%, 0.35%, - 0.32%, - 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.48% [1]. - Basis: The current spot basis of the above - mentioned products were 214, 334, 20, - 90, 227, and 227 respectively [1]. - Spreads: The current spot spreads of Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, and Dongguan soybean meal and rapeseed meal were - 590, 1400, and 330 respectively, with previous values of - 610, 1340, and 350 [1]. Import and Profit - The current import profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed were - 314, 63, - 71, 288, 748, and 1116 respectively, with previous values of - 361, 4, - 130, 320, 881, and 1020 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 25,644, 1,570, 8,182, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 respectively, with previous values of 25,644, 1,570, 8,202, 39,055, 9,248, and 0 [1]. Industry Information - Palm oil: SPPOMA data showed that from September 1 - 20, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 6.57% compared with the same period last month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.25% compared with the same period last month, and the production decreased by 7.89% compared with the same period last month [2]. - Soybeans: As of last Thursday, the sown area of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season had reached 0.9% of the expected total area. The field operations in Paraná, Mato Grosso, Rondônia, and São Paulo states had significantly increased, and the current progress was the same as the same period last year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current stance of China's monetary policy is supportive, implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. The market risk appetite has increased due to the strengthened expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the US stock market has reached a record high [1]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are rich in technology - growth components, are more aggressive, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 indices, which are rich in dividend - blue - chip components, are more defensive [4][11]. - With the Fed entering the interest rate cut cycle, the policy space for the domestic central bank has expanded, but the short - term capital market has tightened, and the bond futures prices have fluctuated at a low level [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Key Varieties - **Fats and Oils**: The night - session of fats and oils was weak. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased in early September, and Argentina's cancellation of export taxes on soybean oil and soybean meal dragged down the short - term performance of the fats and oils sector [2][29]. - **Gold**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver initially declined and then strengthened again, reaching a new high this week. The long - term driving force for gold remains clear, and the expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Fed has continued the bullish sentiment [3][20]. - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose. The previous trading day's stock index rebounded. The 9 - month trend was more volatile, in the high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation period of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. 3.2 Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry will visit the US to reach a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement, indicating a relaxation of tensions between the two countries [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" package of policies, the "stability" foundation of China's capital market has been continuously consolidated, and the "vibrant" ecosystem has been accelerating. The number of new A - share accounts in August increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The State Council's Food Safety Office is promoting the formulation of national standards for pre - made dishes and the explicit use of pre - made dishes in the catering industry [8]. 3.3 Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.15%, ICE 11 - sugar fell 2.04%, and other varieties showed different degrees of change [9]. 3.4 Morning Comments on Main Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term is in a high - level consolidation stage, and the long - term is in the strategic allocation period [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Bond prices rose slightly. The central bank carried out a 14 - day reverse repurchase operation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Night - session oil prices continued to fall. Iraq plans to resume oil exports, and the market is concerned about OPEC's production increase [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The overall inventory of coastal methanol is rising, and it is expected to be short - term bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices stopped falling and stabilized. Supply is expected to increase, and there is a possibility of a short - term rebound [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin prices fell. The market is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures prices fell. The market is in the process of inventory digestion, and attention is paid to the consumption in autumn [19]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices reached a new high. The long - term driving force for gold is clear, and the bullish sentiment continues [20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. The market is affected by multiple factors and may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell slightly at night. The supply may be in surplus in the short term, and prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Weekly production increased, inventory decreased, and prices may fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts fluctuated in a narrow range, showing a high - level oscillating trend [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and iron ore demand is supported. The market is expected to be oscillating and bullish [26]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the market supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The market is bullish, with hot - rolled coils stronger than rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices fell significantly at night. The US soybean harvest pressure will gradually emerge, and bean meal is expected to be under pressure [28]. - **Fats and Oils**: Similar to the previous analysis, the short - term performance is weak [29][30]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are in a stage of inventory accumulation and are expected to be weak. Domestic sugar prices are supported by low inventory but are also affected by import pressure [31]. - **Cotton**: International cotton prices have limited upward momentum, and domestic cotton prices are also under pressure. The short - term is expected to be oscillating and weak [32]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the spot freight rate accelerated its decline at the end of September. The decline rate may slow down after the National Day, and attention is paid to the shipping companies' price - cut rhythm [33].

| | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7130 | 7187 | 7229 | 6873 | 6929 | 6912 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7169 | 7223 | 7250 | 6914 | 6958 | 6928 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -39 | -36 | -21 | -41 | -29 | -16 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.54% | -0.50% | -0.29% | -0.59% | -0.42% | -0.23% | | 场 | 成交量 | 210963 | 9954 | 64 | 221626 | 15142 | 251 | | | 持仓量 | 580839 | 41372 | 145 | 645243 | 73930 | 1665 | | | 持仓量增减 | 245 ...

2025年09月22日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2512 102.364 | TS2603 102.290 | TF2512 105.675 | TF2603 105.550 | T2512 107.835 | T2603 107.490 | TL2512 114.8 | TL2603 114.48 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.410 | 102.340 | 105.820 | 105.695 | 108.080 | 107.750 | 115.62 | 115.31 | | | 涨跌 | -0.046 | -0.050 | -0.145 | -0.145 | -0.245 | -0.260 | -0.820 | -0.830 | | | 涨跌幅 | ...

申万期货原油甲醇策略日报-20250922 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 交易咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | 原油 | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 前日收盘价 | 490.0 | 487.0 | 63.64 | 63.31 | 66.66 | 66.05 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 492.4 | 491.8 | 63.97 | 63.64 | 67.52 | 66.97 | | | 涨跌 | -2.4 | -4.8 | -0.33 | -0.33 | -0.86 | -0.92 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.49% | -0.98% | -0.52% | -0.52% | -1.27% | -1.37% | | | 成交量 | 1,616 | 108,898 | 61,635 | 218,905 | 254,387 | 264,79 ...

| | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7169 | 7223 | 7250 | 6914 | 6958 | 6928 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7188 | 7233 | 7280 | 6926 | 6963 | 6931 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -19 | -10 | -30 | -12 | -5 | -3 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.26% | -0.14% | -0.41% | -0.17% | -0.07% | -0.04% | | 场 | 成交量 | 201711 | 10840 | 74 | 230403 | 18721 | 353 | | | 持仓量 | 556313 | 40101 | 92 | 609908 | 73691 | 1589 | | | 持仓量增减 | 26840 ...

宏 观 阿根廷总统米莱透露，阿根廷正通过谈判遏制市场抛售、避免债务危机，并宣布计划于周二在 纽约与美国总统特朗普会面。阿根廷总统府在一份声明中称，此次与美国总统的会晤将体现两 国"稳固的双边关系"，以及双方深化战略联系的共同承诺。白宫尚未回应置评请求。 息 美国两党的短期支出议案均未能在参议院闯关成功，让国会避免政府关门的努力陷入僵局。现 有的法案仅支持联邦政府运转到本月底。美国总统特朗普发出警告，称联邦政府可能因为两党 之间的僵局而关门。 美国关税政策对瑞士出口造成重大打击。今年8月瑞士对美国的出口额环比下跌22%，其中，瑞 士对美国的黄金出口量从30多吨跌至仅0.3吨，跌幅超过99%。 评 论 及 策 略 美联储利率决议后金银回落，周五晚间再度走强。美国周初请失业金人数回落至23.1万人，创 近四年来最大降幅，预期24万人。9月美联储风险管理式降息25个基点，符合市场预期。仅有刚 被任命的美联储理事米兰支持降息50个基点。在特朗普持续施压的背景下，美联储的降息姿态 仍然较为谨慎。本周公布的美国8月零售销售表现强劲，环比增长0.6%，预估为0.2%。同比增长 2.1%，实现连续第11个月实现正增长。美国贸易 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold has a clear long - term driver due to the US fiscal deficit, debt expansion, and central banks' gold - buying. The expectation of the Fed's further interest rate cuts keeps the bullish sentiment alive [2][20]. - Crude oil prices are affected by EU sanctions on Russia and US drilling well numbers. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - The Chinese capital market is in the initial stage of strategic allocation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices are more offensive, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 are more defensive [4][11][12]. - The "9·24" policy package has strengthened the "stability" and accelerated the "activity" of China's capital market [7]. - Manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in the whole process of data collection, storage, calculation, management, and application [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main News on the Day - **International News**: South Korea and the US have differences in the commercial feasibility guarantee of a $350 billion investment. South Korea plans to increase defense spending and hopes to resolve the tariff issue with the US [6]. - **Domestic News**: Since the implementation of the "9·24" policy package, the "stability" of China's capital market has been consolidated, and the "activity" has been accelerated. As of September 18, the margin trading balance was 24,024.65 billion yuan. The A - share market's daily trading volume has exceeded 3 trillion yuan several times this year, and the total market value has reached over 100 trillion yuan. In August, the number of new A - share accounts increased significantly [7]. - **Industry News**: The director of the National Data Bureau emphasized that manufacturing enterprises should increase investment in data - related processes to promote the implementation of "AI +" in the industry [8]. 3.2 Daily Returns of External Markets - The FTSE China A50 futures decreased by 0.17%, ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.27%, London gold spot increased by 1.22%, London silver increased by 3.24%, ICE No. 11 sugar increased by 0.31%, ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.93%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 1.23%, CBOT soybean meal decreased by 0.32%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.26%, CBOT wheat decreased by 0.52%, and CBOT corn decreased by 0.06% [9]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The US stock market rose, while the previous trading day's stock index mainly corrected. The coal and non - ferrous sectors led the rise, and the automobile and pharmaceutical sectors led the decline. The market trading volume was 3.17 trillion yuan. The financing balance decreased on September 18. The market is in a high - level consolidation stage, but the long - term strategic allocation of the Chinese capital market has just begun [4][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to fall, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose to 1.80%. The central bank increased open - market operations, but the money market tightened. The Fed's interest rate cut increased the policy space for the domestic central bank, but the short - term money market and the high - level shock of the equity market led to the repeated low - level performance of bond futures [13]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices dropped 1.55% at night. The EU proposed the 19th round of sanctions against Russia, including energy and finance. The US drilling well number increased. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fluctuated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, while the overall methanol plant operating load decreased slightly. The coastal methanol inventory increased, and the short - term trend is bearish [15]. - **Rubber**: The natural rubber futures declined last week. The supply may increase, the bonded - area inventory decreased, and the tire production increased. The price may be supported by inventory reduction and rainfall, and the short - term decline is expected to be limited, with a possible oscillatory trend [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed down. The spot market is mainly affected by supply and demand. The inventory is improving, and the decline in crude oil prices has stopped, which supports the chemical products. However, the market is worried about future demand, and polyolefins may continue to oscillate in the low - level range [17][18]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly. The market supply - demand relationship is slowly recovering, and attention is focused on the supply - side reduction. The inventory of glass production enterprises decreased this week. Soda ash futures also rebounded slightly, and its production enterprise inventory decreased [19]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, gold and silver prices first declined and then strengthened on Friday night. The US initial jobless claims decreased, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The long - term driver of gold is clear, and the expectation of further rate cuts maintains the bullish sentiment [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.29% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, but the smelting output is growing. The power industry is growing, while the real estate is weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices dropped 0.61% at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The inventory of galvanized sheets increased. The short - term supply - demand may turn to surplus, and zinc prices may fluctuate weakly within a range [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production increased, and the inventory decreased. The demand for related materials also changed. Due to the expected mining - right change, the bullish logic is weakened, but the inventory reduction and pre - holiday procurement may support the price, and it may oscillate in the short term [23][24]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level on Friday night. The steel output was basically flat, and the inventory increased. The short - term inventory pressure and profit reduction restrict the price, while policy expectations and demand support the price [25]. - **Iron Ore**: Steel mills have resumed production, and the demand for iron ore is supported. The global iron ore shipment has decreased, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The market is optimistic about the future trend, considering the Fed's interest rate cut and pre - holiday replenishment [26]. - **Steel**: The profitability of steel mills remains stable, and the steel supply pressure is increasing. The steel inventory is accumulating, and the steel export situation is mixed. The market supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the hot - rolled coil performs better than the rebar [27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were strong at night. The USDA report had a neutral - to - bearish impact on the market. The positive signal of Sino - US trade relations may put pressure on the domestic market [28]. - **Edible Oils**: The soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while the rapeseed oil futures rose slightly. The production and export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the market is affected by the US biodiesel policy and the Fed's interest rate cut, with an expected oscillatory trend [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation stage, and the Brazilian sugar production and export situation is changing. The domestic sugar market is supported by high sales - to - production ratio and low inventory but is dragged down by import pressure. The short - term trend is weak, with a possible rebound [31]. - **Cotton**: The ICE US cotton futures declined. The international cotton supply pressure remains, and the domestic market is in the new - cotton acquisition stage. The new - cotton pre - sale and acquisition expectations support the price, but the high - yield expectation and weak downstream demand limit the upward momentum. The short - term trend is oscillatory [32]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index of container shipping to Europe weakened rapidly on Friday, with the October contract falling below 1100 points. The SCFI European line price decreased, and the freight rate continued to decline in September. The shipping capacity will decrease in October, and the decline rate of freight rates may slow down after the National Day holiday [33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 0.29%. Concentrate supply remains tight, squeezing smelting profits, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. The power industry shows positive growth, PV installation surges year - on - year but future growth may slow; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance output growth slows; the real estate sector remains weak. Multiple factors are intertwined [2]. - Zinc prices may have short - term wide - range weak fluctuations. The night - session zinc price dropped 0.61%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are generally rising, turning smelting profits positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and the real estate sector remains weak. Short - term supply - demand differences may tilt towards oversupply [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Night - session copper price closed up 0.29%. Smelting output is growing despite tight concentrate supply and pressured profits. The power industry has positive growth, PV installation has a sharp year - on - year increase with possible future slowdown, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and real estate is weak. Copper prices may have range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - session zinc price closed down 0.61%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, leading to positive smelting profits and expected output increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment has a small positive cumulative growth rate, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance output growth slows, and real estate is weak. Zinc prices may have wide - range weak fluctuations. Suggest to focus on the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - Copper: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 79,910 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 9,997 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 64.90 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 148,875 tons with a daily decrease of 900 tons [2]. - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,676 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 5.43 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 513,900 tons with a daily increase of 30,125 tons [2]. - Zinc: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,045 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,899 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was 50.91 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 48,825 tons with a daily decrease of 150 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 1,680 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 15,270 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 179.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 228,450 tons with a daily decrease of 18 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 17,150 yuan/ton, domestic basis was - 115 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 43.72 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 222,675 tons with a daily decrease of 2,675 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price was 268,770 yuan/ton, domestic basis was 1,910 yuan/ton, LME 3 - month closing price was 34,220 dollars/ton, LME spot premium was - 124.41 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 2,645 tons with no daily change [2].

报告日期：2025 年 9 月 19 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：下跌只是插曲，潜力悄然集聚 美国上周首申失业金人数超预期大幅回落至 23.1 万，较前周降 3.2 万，创近四 年最大降幅。回落主要反映了德州地区异常数据的正常化，德州上周从申请人数 增幅最大的州转为降幅最大的州。英国央行决定维持利率不变，但对年内进一步 降息持谨慎态度，原因是对通胀反弹的担忧日益加剧，英国央行声明称，虽然预 期通胀将回到 2%的目标，但尚未走出困境。海外投资者 7 月美债持仓再创新高， 日本持仓又创逾一年新高，中国持仓创逾十六年新低，加拿大持仓剧减 571 亿美 元。 重点品种：股指、黄金、铜 股指：美国三大指数上涨，上一交易日股指冲高回落，电子板块领涨，有色金属 板块领跌，市场成交额 3.17 万亿元。资金方面，9 月 17 日融资余额增加 127.11 亿元至 23885.22 亿元。整体上而言 9 月走势相对 7 月和 8 月更为波折，我们认 为是进入了持续上涨后的高位整固阶段，在行情长时间持续上涨后部分资金在高 位对冲需求增加使得多空力量出现一定分歧从而带来股指较大波动，但从中长期 角度来说，我们认为中国资本市场 ...