| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/30 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7818 | 8512 | 9040 | 2774 | 2465 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -18 | -56 | -6 | -16 | 6 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.23% | -0.65% | -3.15% | -0.57% | 0.24% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | ...

20251229申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：周末夜盘铜价收涨超2%，再创历史新高。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏 边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定； 汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向 | | | 缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | 锌：周末夜盘锌价收涨。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。 中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量 | | 锌 | | | | 负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建 | | | 议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 （元/吨） | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 （吨） | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 贵金属延续强势 十四届全国人大四次会议于 2026 年 3 月 5 日在北京召开，全国政协十四届四次 会议于 2026 年 3 月 4 日在北京召开。全国财政工作会议 12 月 27 日至 28 日在 北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策。一是扩大财政支出 盘子，确保必要支出力度。二是优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。三 是提高转移支付资金效能，增强地方自主可用财力。四是持续优化支出结构，强 化重点领域保障。五是加强财政金融协同，放大政策效能。中国 11 月规模以上 工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业利润增速加 快。俄罗斯总统助理乌沙科夫 28 日说，俄总统普京当天与美国总统特朗普通电 话，双方均认为，以公民投票为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。 重点品种：贵金属，股指，铜 贵金属：现货白银快速拉升，继续刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%， 低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期， 引发市场质疑，但 CP ...

| 五、宏观信息 | | --- | | 全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥 | | 债券效益。会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，大力提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育 | | 壮大新动能，进一步增加财政科技投入；进一步强化保基本、兜底线，促进居民就业增收等。 | | 美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽连斯基就拟议中的俄乌"和平计划"举行会晤。特朗普在会前对媒体表示，泽连斯基和俄罗斯总统普京都希望达成和平协议， | | 并称普京在推动和平问题上"态度认真"。特朗普透露，美乌之间将达成一项安全协议，且该协议将"非常强有力"，目前相关谈判"没有设定最后期限"。 | | 2025年交易收官在即，本周迎来元旦假期，A股 、港股及欧美等诸多金融市场届时将休市。中美两国12月PMI数据将于本周陆续公布；美联储将公布会议纪 | | 要，鲍威尔继任者或揭晓；股神巴菲特将正式谢幕；"港股GPU第一股"壁仞科技将于2026年1月2日上市交易。 | | 宏观信息 据经济参 ...

| | 1、央行公告称，12月26日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了930亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量930亿 | | --- | --- | | | 元，中标量930亿元。Wind数据显示，当日562亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放368亿元。本周央行公开市场将 | | | 有6227亿元逆回购到期，其中本周一、本周二、本周三、本周日分别到期673亿元、593亿元、260亿元、4701亿元。 | | | 2、2026年全国两会召开时间确定。全国政协十四届四次会议将于2026年3月4日在北京召开，十四届全国人大四次会议 | | | 将于3月5日召开，审查"十五五"规划纲要草案列入2026年全国人代会建议议程。 3、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026年继续实施更加积极的财政政策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支 | | | 出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债券效益。会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需 | | | 主导，大力提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动能，进一步增加财政科 | | | 技投入；进一步强化保基本、 ...

首席点评： 有色新高，能化亮眼 中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变，12 月 5 年期以上 LPR 为 3.5%，1 年期 LPR 为 3%。 中国央行：单笔逾期金额在 1 万元以下可一次性修复个人信用，明年 1 月 1 日起 正式实施。特朗普"钦点"理事米兰：美联储明年不继续降息就有衰退风险；美联 储明年票委放鹰：未来几个月内没必要降息，11 月 CPI 被低估。金银铜齐创历 史新高，黄金盘中涨超 2%、时隔两月再创新高，白银和伦铜连续两日创新高，现 货白银一度涨超 3%，伦铜四连涨；报道显示美国发力封锁委内瑞拉石油出口，原 油四连涨至逾一周新高，盘中涨近 3%。 重点品种：贵金属，原油，油脂 贵金属：国际黄金白银刷新历史新高。美国 11 月 CPI 同比 2.7%，低于预期的 3.1%，核心 CPI 同比 2.6%，低于预期的 3%。CPI 大幅不及预期，引发市场质疑， 但 CPI 整体下行趋势为降息提供空间。美国 11 月非农数据分化，新增就业人口 6.4 万人，好于市场预期的 5 万人，但失业率上行至 4.6%。疲软的就业数据支持 美联储继续降息，流动性宽松预期仍对贵金属价格形成提振。从长期角度来看， ...

20251223申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼 | | | 产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。中钢 协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增 长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建议关 | | | 注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 | LME现货升贴水 | LME库存 | LME库存日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 （元/吨） | （元/吨） | 期收盘价 (美元/吨） | （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） | （吨） | ...

| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2025/12/23 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月（从业编号:F03119649；交易咨询号:Z0019570） | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 7772 | 8414 | 8864 | 2741 | 2412 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | 60 | 122 | 120 | 6 | 23 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.78% | 1.47% | -3.15% | 0.22% | 0.96% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | | 货 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.464 | 102.504 | 105.860 | 105.860 | 107.980 | 108.005 | 111.98 | 112.2 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.490 | 102.526 | 105.970 | 105.965 | 108.150 | 108.175 | 112.66 | 112.84 | | | 涨跌 | -0.026 | -0.022 | -0.110 | -0.105 | -0.170 | -0.170 | -0.680 | -0.640 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Bullish on stock indices (IH, IF, IC, IM), treasury bonds (TS), rubber, rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, lithium carbonate, cotton, and corn; bearish on crude oil, methanol, apples, and container shipping to Europe [6] 2. Core Views - A - shares are expected to form a long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern with the resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industrial drive". The expected December interest rate cut by the Fed and capital market reforms will further strengthen this foundation [2][12] - The downward trend of CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, and weak employment data supports the Fed to continue cutting rates, boosting precious metal prices. The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged [3][20] - The short - term trend of aluminum prices is expected to continue consolidation, while a long - term optimistic outlook is maintained, considering supply and demand factors and the approaching holidays [4][23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Main News on the Day 3.1.1. International News - The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles" requirements, seen as a concession to the traditional European automotive industry and a step back in climate policy [7] 3.1.2. Domestic News - State - owned enterprises will take on national science and technology tasks, aiming to make breakthroughs in "neck - choking" areas and supply "root technologies" and key common technologies [8] 3.1.3. Industry News - Three government departments jointly issued the "Internet Platform Price Behavior Rules" to promote the innovation and healthy development of the platform economy [9] 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.88%, ICE Brent crude oil increased 1.41%, London silver climbed 2.26%, and other varieties showed different degrees of price changes from December 18th to 19th [11] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial - **Stock Indices**: The long - term and slow - rising bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's expected December interest rate cut and positive policy signals will boost market risk appetite [2][12] - **Treasury Bonds**: The price of short - term treasury bond futures is supported by the expectation of loose policies, despite factors such as the rise in US and Japanese bond yields [13][14] 3.3.2. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse, with a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventory and an increase in gasoline and distillate inventories [15] - **Methanol**: Short - term methanol is expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as the decline in CTO/MTO开工率 and the change in coastal inventory [16] - **Rubber**: Short - term rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation due to supply and demand factors [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures are running weakly. Short - term attention should be paid to the cost trend and the digestion rhythm of supply and demand [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The focus of market trading is shifting to the May contract [19] 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: The long - term upward trend of precious metals remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the Fed's possible interest rate cuts and the weakening of the US dollar's credit [3][20] - **Copper**: The copper market is facing a supply - demand gap due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to factors such as the US dollar and downstream demand [21] - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Market sentiment and related factors need to be monitored [22] - **Aluminum**: Short - term aluminum prices are expected to consolidate, and a long - term optimistic view is maintained, considering supply, demand, and holiday factors [4][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Although there are signs of a slowdown in inventory reduction, the overall trend is still upward, and attention should be paid to factors such as production resumption and demand verification [24][25] 3.3.4. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After a significant decline, the double - coking market is expected to stabilize, and attention should be paid to factors such as iron - water production and downstream inventory [26] - **Steel**: The short - term steel price has the potential to rebound, but the medium - term trend is weak, affected by supply, demand, and macro - expectations [27] - **Iron Ore**: Short - term iron ore prices are expected to be slightly stronger and volatile, considering factors such as shipping, inventory, and steel - mill demand [28] 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meals**: Domestic soybean meal is expected to continue range - bound due to factors such as the slow US soybean exports and sufficient future supply [29] - **Oils and Fats**: Short - term oil prices are expected to be weak and volatile, affected by factors such as palm oil export policies and inventory pressure [30][31] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar shows signs of stabilization. Attention should be paid to the impact of supply and cost factors on market sentiment [32] - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [33] 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The freight rate of the 02 contract may face adjustment pressure as the Spring Festival approaches and the shipping schedule changes [34]