1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of short - term treasury bond futures [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The prices of treasury bond futures showed mixed trends on the previous trading day. The T2512 contract rose 0.06% and its trading volume increased [2] - The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates generally declined on the previous trading day. SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 2.8bp, DR007 rate dropped 3bp, and GC007 rate dropped 8.6bp [2] - The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined on the previous trading day. The 10Y treasury bond yield dropped 0.5bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 30.38bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 3bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield rose 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield dropped 0.4bp [2] 3.4 Macro News and Strategy - The central bank conducted 3426 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 30, with a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [3] - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to the stability of the economic situation [3] - The new 500 billion yuan policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, which is expected to drive project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan and promote economic development [3] - The European Central Bank kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged for the third time, believing that inflation has reached the target level [3] - Money market interest rates mostly declined, while US treasury bond yields rose collectively [3]

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 6729 | 6968 | 7030 | 7066 | 6651 | 6721 | | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 7009 | 7075 | 7105 | 6685 | 6765 | 6762 | | 货 | 涨跌 | -41 | -45 | -39 | -34 | -44 | -33 | | 场 | | | | | | | 619 | | | 持仓量 | 508700 | 68191 | 1821 | 613335 | 138459 | 7234 | | | 持仓量增减 | -3569 | 1907 | 143 | 677 | 4514 | 115 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States agreed to strengthen cooperation in the economic and trade fields, it did not significantly boost the stock index. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the RMB's appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts for different terms increased, with the increase ranging from 62.40 to 68.60. The trading volume of IF next - month contracts was 74,172.00, and the holding volume of IF next - month contracts was 153,415.00. The holding volume of IF contracts generally decreased, except for the IF far - season contract which increased by 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 16.20 to 19.00. The trading volume of IH next - month contracts was 41,888.00, and the holding volume of IH next - month contracts was 66,853.00. The holding volume of IH contracts generally increased [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 20.20 to 28.40. The trading volume of IC next - month contracts was 82,049.00, and the holding volume of IC next - month contracts was 133,968.00. The holding volume of IC contracts generally decreased [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts for different terms decreased, with the decrease ranging from 55.20 to 67.80. The trading volume of IM next - month contracts was 162,104.00, and the holding volume of IM next - month contracts was 190,757.00. The holding volume of IM contracts generally increased [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for different contracts were - 13.60 for IF, - 1.60 for IH, - 56.40 for IC, and - 74.00 for IM, all slightly different from the previous values [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The CSI 300 index decreased by 0.51%, the SSE 50 index decreased by 0.62%, the CSI 500 index decreased by 1.27%, and the CSI 1000 index decreased by 1.11%. The trading volume and total trading amount of each index also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among the CSI 300 industry indexes, the energy, raw materials, industrial, and other industries showed different degrees of decline, while the main consumption industry increased slightly by 0.01% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts for the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes changed compared to the previous two days [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.22%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.44%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index decreased by 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.15% [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.33%, the Nikkei 225 increased by 2.46%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.23%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.12% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The leaders of China and the United States agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade, energy and other fields, and promote people - to - people exchanges. The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, including the cancellation of some tariffs by the US. The A - share listed companies' third - quarter reports showed that the total revenue in the first three quarters was 53.41 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.20%, and the net profit attributable to the parent was 4.70 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.34%. The tax - free shop policy will be improved starting from November 1 [2] 6. Industry Information - The weighted average interest rate of newly issued commercial personal housing loans in the third quarter of 2025 was 3.07%. 21 troubled real - estate enterprises' debt restructuring and reorganization were approved or completed, with a total debt - resolution scale of about 1.2 trillion yuan. The pilot area for pension wealth management products will be expanded to the whole country. The HPV vaccine will be included in the national immunization program [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes fell. After the meeting between the leaders of China and the United States, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 4000 points. The power equipment industry led the rise, and the communication electronics industry led the decline. The market turnover was 2.46 trillion yuan. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and external funds are expected to flow in. The market style may shift towards value [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Likely to be strong [2] - Zinc: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: The copper price closed lower at night. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment maintains positive growth, while power source investment slows down. Automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: The zinc price closed higher at night. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The weekly inventory of galvanized sheets has increased. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales show positive growth, household appliance production scheduling shows negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to the different inventory situations at home and abroad, the domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one. Overall, the supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Market situation: Night - time copper price closed lower. Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output is growing. Grid investment is growing, power source investment is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may cause a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - Price trend: Likely to be strong [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market situation: Night - time zinc price closed higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth is slowing, automobile production and sales are positive, household appliance production scheduling is negative, and real estate is weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations differ [2]. - Price trend: Likely to fluctuate within a range [2]. - Suggestion: Monitor changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - Day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - Day LME 3 - Month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 87,910 | - 90 | 10,930 | - 19.66 | 135,350 | 775 | | Aluminum | 21,230 | - 10 | 2,870 | - 0.99 | 462,750 | - 2,900 | | Zinc | 22,325 | - 75 | 3,045 | 132.96 | 35,200 | - 50 | | Nickel | 120,660 | - 1,710 | 15,250 | - 203.99 | 251,706 | 270 | | Lead | 17,360 | - 210 | 2,022 | - 35.12 | 224,875 | - 4,800 | | Tin | 283,040 | 1,500 | 35,720 | 10.02 | 2,830 | 130 | [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - asset is becoming more prominent, but it is adjusting after a rapid rise. Copper prices are likely to be supported in the long - term due to potential supply shortages. The downward trend of crude oil is hard to reverse. Market styles of stocks may become more balanced, and bonds are expected to maintain a good operation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory a. Chief Comments - The European Central Bank keeps its three major interest rates unchanged. The US cancels a 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and suspends a 24% tariff for another year, among other trade - related concessions. Most domestic futures closed down at night [1]. b. Key Varieties - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver rebounded last night after a continuous decline. Although the Fed cut interest rates and ended QT, the driving factors weakened, leading to an adjustment after a rapid rise. Long - term, gold's status as a safe - asset is strengthening [2]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. Supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may cause a supply - demand gap, supporting prices in the long - run [3]. - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell 0.24% at night. OPEC's supply increased in September, and the downward trend remains [3]. c. Daily Main News - **International News**: The eurozone's Q3 GDP had better - than - expected growth, but member states' performance diverged [6]. - **Domestic News**: The results of the Sino - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur were announced, covering issues such as trade, investment, and TikTok [7]. - **Industry News**: 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive over 7 trillion yuan in project investment [8]. d. Daily Gains of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500, European STOXX50, and FTSE China A50 futures all declined. The US dollar index rose, ICE Brent crude oil fell slightly, and London gold and silver prices increased [10]. e. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: Although Sino - US leaders agreed to strengthen economic cooperation, the stock index did not rise significantly. The market style may become more balanced [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rose slightly. The central bank's support for a loose monetary policy and the Fed's interest - rate decision affected the bond market [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: The downward trend is difficult to reverse as OPEC supply increased [14]. - **Methanol**: Market fluctuations intensified due to uncertainties, with inventory rising and potential large - scale imports [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply may increase, and demand support is limited. Weather may affect production, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [16]. - **Polyolefins**: They followed the crude oil trend. Demand was stable, and the market is likely to start oscillating after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both are in the process of inventory digestion. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Similar to the analysis in the key varieties section, with a long - term upward trend and short - term adjustment [19]. - **Copper**: Similar to the key varieties section, with long - term price support [20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The supply may increase, and the price may fluctuate in a range [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation, affected by steel demand and inventory [22]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: Brazilian soybean planting is progressing well. The US soybean price is affected by trade negotiations, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate [23]. - **Oils and Fats**: Palm oil production is expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure suppresses the short - term market [24]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and the domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [25]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation, supported by the purchase price [26]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The market sentiment is affected by Sino - US trade policies. The price may have a chance to rise during the peak season [27].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - end Treasury bonds rose, and the yield of the active 10 - year Treasury bond remained at 1.8125%. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase operation had a net injection of 4195 billion yuan, and Shibor short - end varieties declined collectively, easing the tightness of the capital market. The central bank governor stated that it would continue to adhere to a supportive monetary policy stance and implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected and announced the end of QT, but Powell's hawkish remarks on the prospect of a December interest rate cut led to a decrease in the market's probability of a December rate cut and a rebound in US Treasury yields. The domestic economy showed mixed performance, with the real - estate sector still in adjustment. With the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market Treasury bond trading operations, market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the short - end Treasury bond futures prices [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.14%. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates generally declined, such as SHIBOR 7 - day rate down 1.8bp, DR007 rate down 2.56bp, and GC007 rate down 2.5bp [2]. - **Volume and Position**: The trading volume and open interest of various Treasury bond futures contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of T2512 increased by 7086, while that of TL2512 decreased by 1892 [2]. - **Spread**: The inter - term spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - term spread of T2512 - T2603 increased from 0.3150 to 0.330 [2]. Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term Treasury bonds showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.1bp to 1.82%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.67bp [2]. - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The yields of US and German 10 - year Treasury bonds and Japanese 10 - year Treasury bonds all rose. The US 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 9bp, the German 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1bp, and the Japanese 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 1bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On October 29, the central bank conducted 5577 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 4195 billion yuan after deducting the maturing reverse repurchases [3]. - **Sino - US Relations**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [3]. - **Fed Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced the end of QT. However, Powell's remarks led to a decrease in the market's expectation of a December rate cut [3]. - **Economic Data**: In the first nine months, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 61.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.9%, and the total profit was 3.17 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. As of the end of September, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.2%, up 0.2 percentage points year - on - year [3]. Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: Most money market interest rates declined. For example, the weighted average interest rate of the 1 - day inter - bank pledged repurchase fell 6.42bp to 1.4045%, and the 7 - day rate fell 1.28bp to 1.5452% [3]. - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields rose collectively. The 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 10.62bp to 3.592%, and the 10 - year yield rose 9.82bp to 4.074% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, and announced to end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. The market had largely priced in these moves, and Fed Chair Powell's post - meeting remarks were hawkish, suggesting that a December rate cut is not guaranteed [1][2][7]. - Against the backdrop of the US fiscal deficit, deteriorating debt situation, and increased global confrontation, central banks around the world are continuously increasing their gold holdings. However, due to the weakening of driving factors, precious metals have experienced continuous adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The domestic stock market showed an upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 4000 points. With the expected continuation of a loose domestic liquidity environment and the potential inflow of external funds, the stock market is expected to continue its upward trend in the short term [3][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% and will end balance sheet reduction on December 1st. Inflation remains high, and the risk of employment decline has increased. Powell said a December rate cut is not certain [1][7]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30th to exchange views on China - US relations and common concerns [8]. - **Industry News**: The Reserve Bank of India has repatriated nearly 64 tons of gold reserves in the first six months of the current fiscal year, and the proportion of domestic gold reserves has nearly doubled compared to four years ago [9]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - Different overseas market varieties showed various trends. For example, the S&P 500 was almost flat, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 0.45%, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.68%, and London gold fell 0.56% [10]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The Fed's rate cut and the expected loose domestic liquidity environment are conducive to the inflow of funds into the stock market. The market style may shift towards value and become more balanced. The stock index is expected to continue rising in the short term [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term treasury bond futures prices are supported by the central bank's monetary policy and the expected reasonable and sufficient market liquidity. However, the hawkish remarks on the December rate cut by Powell have led to a rise in US bond yields [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: Although geopolitical tensions have pushed up oil prices, the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian oil transportation and unclear market trends [14]. - **Methanol**: The operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin and methanol plants has declined. Coastal methanol inventories have increased slightly, and the market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15]. - **Rubber**: Supply pressure may increase as the rubber - tapping season progresses, but short - term trends are expected to be strong due to expected smooth progress in China - US trade negotiations and the Fed's rate cut [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures showed a rebound, but glass futures fell at night. The domestic market is in a process of inventory digestion, and the focus is on autumn consumption and policy changes [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals have been adjusting after the Fed's rate cut. Although the long - term narrative of gold as a safe - haven asset is strengthening, short - term driving factors have weakened, leading to price adjustments [2][19]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for the copper price [20]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price rose slightly at night. The processing fee of zinc concentrates has rebounded, and the supply - demand difference is not obvious. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the overseas price [21]. - **Black Metals**: - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke futures oscillated at a high level at night. The production of five major steel products increased slightly, and the demand for coking coal and coke is supported. The market is expected to be strong in the short term [22][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Protein Meal**: The bean and rapeseed meal futures oscillated and rose at night. The sowing of new - season soybeans in Brazil is progressing smoothly, and the export prospects of US soybeans have improved. The domestic market is expected to oscillate in the short term [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil futures showed a weak trend at night. The expected increase in palm oil inventory and supply - side pressure are suppressing the short - term market [25]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and the sugar price is expected to decline. The domestic sugar price is affected by import profits but may be supported by the upcoming new - season crushing [26]. - **Cotton**: The cotton futures continued to oscillate strongly. The new - cotton purchase is in full swing, and the short - term market is expected to remain strong [27]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated strongly. Some shipping companies have adjusted their freight rates downward. The market is in the traditional peak - season price - holding period, and there may be room for price increases [28].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the strong side, and zinc prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose 0.47%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand situation into a deficit, supporting copper prices in the long term. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose 0.11%, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. Zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. Overall, zinc supply - demand differences are not obvious, and prices may fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous closing price was 88,680 yuan/ton with a basis of - 65 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,270 yuan/ton with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,380 yuan/ton with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; nickel was 121,250 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,520 yuan/ton; lead was 17,370 yuan/ton with a basis of - 210 yuan/ton; tin was 286,170 yuan/ton with a basis of - 470 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: For copper, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 19.66 dollars/ton, and the inventory was 134,575 tons with a daily change of - 1,400 tons; for aluminum, it was 2,870 dollars/ton, - 0.99 dollars/ton, 465,650 tons, and - 3,625 tons respectively; for zinc, 3,070 dollars/ton, 132.96 dollars/ton, 35,250 tons, and - 1,800 tons; for nickel, 15,405 dollars/ton, - 203.99 dollars/ton, 251,436 tons, and 198 tons; for lead, 2,019 dollars/ton, - 35.12 dollars/ton, 229,675 tons, and - 2,700 tons; for tin, 36,105 dollars/ton, 10.02 dollars/ton, 2,700 tons, and - 25 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins follow the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited. After a short - term rebound in the market, it may start to fluctuate in the future [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7009, 7075, and 7105 respectively, with increases of 24, 13, and 4, and percentage increases of 0.34%, 0.18%, and 0.06%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6685, 6765, and 6762 respectively, with increases of 28, 31, and 25, and percentage increases of 0.42%, 0.46%, and 0.37% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 212938, 21224, and 643 respectively, and the open interests were 512269, 66284, and 1678 respectively, with changes of - 7218, - 322, and 309. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 201901, 20539, and 557 respectively, and the open interests were 612658, 133945, and 7119 respectively, with changes of 1313, - 468, and 280 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 66, - 30, and 96 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 39, and 116. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 80, 3, and 77 respectively, compared to previous values of - 77, - 3, and 80 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film are 2261 yuan/ton, 5985 yuan/ton, 543 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6450 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2245 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 534 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: In the mid - stream, the current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Wednesday (October 29), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.48 per barrel, up $0.33 or 0.55% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.70 - $61.02. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.92 per barrel, up $0.52 or 0.81% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.92 - $65.37 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a bias for various varieties, with "偏空" (Bearish) and "偏多" (Bullish) ratings for different financial and commodity instruments such as stock indices, bonds, and commodities [4]. Core Viewpoints - The "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on economic growth within a reasonable range, improving total factor productivity, and enhancing residents' consumption rate [6]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to consolidate the positive momentum of the capital market and improve market - stabilizing mechanisms [7]. - Different commodities have their own market drivers and trends. For example, gold is influenced by factors like geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and market sentiment, while oil is affected by geopolitical sanctions and market trading trends [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Sections 1. Main News International News - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the "2025 Fiscal Year Continuing Appropriations and Extension Act" for the 13th time, leading to the continuation of the government shutdown [5]. Domestic News - The full - text of the "15th Five - Year Plan" was released, setting goals for economic and social development, including economic growth, technological self - reliance, and reform breakthroughs [6]. Industry News - The central bank governor stated that the central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, execute existing measures, and study new policies to support the capital market [7]. 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - A table shows the daily returns of various outer - market assets, including the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and different commodities such as oil, gold, and agricultural products [10]. 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: After a high - level shock in September, stock indices are entering a direction - selection phase. With a potentially loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds opened higher and closed higher. With the central bank's supportive monetary policy and expected market liquidity, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to be supported [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil fell at night. Geopolitical sanctions on Russian oil companies have been imposed, but the downward trend of oil prices remains due to unclear market situations and limited impact on Russian oil transportation [3][14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell at night. The开工 rate of coal - to - olefin and methanol production decreased, and coastal methanol inventories increased. Market uncertainties have intensified price fluctuations [15]. - **Rubber**: As the rubber - tapping season progresses, supply pressure may increase. However, potential weather impacts on production and positive progress in Sino - U.S. trade negotiations may support prices [16]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Following the oil trend and with high downstream demand, the market may start to oscillate after a short - term rebound [17]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures rebounded slightly, and soda ash futures oscillated. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and market sentiment is cautious. Attention should be paid to autumn consumption and policy changes [18][19]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell significantly and then rebounded slightly. Geopolitical risks have cooled, and after a rapid rise, prices are adjusting due to weakened driving factors and accumulated profit - taking [2][20]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. With a tight supply of concentrates and high smelting output, an Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap, supporting long - term prices [21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. With an increase in zinc concentrate processing fees and expected production growth, the price may fluctuate within a range due to different inventory situations at home and abroad [22]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke market oscillated upwards at night. While high iron - water production provides support, the possibility of blast furnace production cuts due to shrinking profits should be considered [23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated upwards at night. With good progress in Sino - U.S. trade talks and high U.S. soybean export inspections, the domestic market may oscillate in the short term [24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oil prices were weak at night. With expected increases in palm oil production and exports in Malaysia, and supply - side expectations of relaxation, short - term prices are under pressure [25]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated within a range. The global sugar market is in a stock - building phase, and Brazilian factors are dragging down prices. In the domestic market, cost support and import - related rumors may affect prices [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to oscillate. Affected by the U.S. government shutdown and domestic market conditions, prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index oscillated. With multiple shipping companies reducing freight rates and limited capacity control, the market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [28].