Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices slightly declined. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have fallen, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 91,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 145 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 165,875 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 21,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,883 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 43.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 23,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 65 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,035 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 31.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 64,475 tons with a daily change of 2,550 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 112,290 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,670 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,255 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 190.25 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,392 tons with a daily change of 360 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 16,825 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,942 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 51.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 252,475 tons with a daily change of 17,725 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 320,620 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 5,820 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 40,955 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,795 tons with a daily change of 125 tons [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are trading in a consolidation pattern. On the spot side, the prices of linear LL from Sinopec and PetroChina are stable, and the prices of拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina are also stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the disk drive was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion, and the future domestic consumption potential [2]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6516, 6543, and 6568 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they decreased by 6, 14, and 15 respectively, with daily price changes of -0.09%, -0.21%, and -0.23%. The trading volumes were 74760, 300927, and 6417, and the open interests were 135903, 510143, and 10432, with changes of -14270, 21355, and 1247 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -27, -25, and 52, compared with the previous values of -35, -26, and 61 [2]. - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6192, 6256, and 6291 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, they increased by 14, 2, and 14 respectively, with daily price changes of 0.23%, 0.03%, and 0.22%. The trading volumes were 128985, 303323, and 6466, and the open interests were 195372, 497942, and 26213, with changes of -23998, 11398, and 1729 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -64, -35, and 99, compared with the previous values of -76, -23, and 99 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2131 yuan/ton, 6055 yuan/ton, 594 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6020 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures increased by 4 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene decreased by 10 yuan/ton, South China propane decreased by 5 dollars/ton, and North China powder materials decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market - Middle Reaches**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850, 6500 - 6750, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively, remaining the same as the previous values. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300, 6050 - 6200, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, also remaining the same as the previous values [2]. News - On Tuesday (December 16), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $55.27 per barrel, down $1.55 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.73%, with a trading range of $54.98 - $56.70. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $58.92 per barrel, down $1.64 from the previous trading day, a decrease of 2.71%, with a trading range of $58.72 - $60.40 [2].

2025年12月17日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.494 | 105.785 | 105.785 | 107.870 | 107.900 | 111.53 | 111.75 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.024 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.020 | -0.140 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures stopped falling and rebounded. On the spot side, linear LL prices from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were lowered by 150. For拉丝 PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, the overall operating rate of the downstream demand side seems to have reached its peak, and demand is steadily being released. Previously, the market was driven down by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, leading to a lower valuation of polyolefins. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling, the pace of digestion of upstream supply and demand, and the future domestic consumption potential [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of LL for January, May, and September were 6522, 6557, and 6583 respectively, with increases of 46 (0.71%), 71 (1.09%), and 64 (0.98%) compared to the day before. For PP, the closing prices were 6178, 6254, and 6277, with increases of 49 (0.80%), 86 (1.39%), and 66 (1.06%) [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September were 131615, 458385, and 5952 respectively, and the open interests were 150173, 488788, and 9185. The open interest changes were -33948, 9111, and 310. For PP, the trading volumes were 271855, 478514, and 9946, and the open interests were 219370, 486544, and 24484, with open interest changes of -73814, 43232, and 4180 [2] - **Spreads**: The current spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January were -35, -26, and 61 respectively, compared to previous values of -10, -33, and 43. For PP, the current spreads were -76, -23, and 99, compared to previous values of -39, -43, and 82 [2] Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2128 yuan/ton, 6065 yuan/ton, 609 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous prices were 2103 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Midstream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6850 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6750 (8100 - 8250) yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6050 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6350 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton [2] News - On Monday (December 15), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $56.82 per barrel, down $0.62 (1.08%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $56.40 - $57.80. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $60.56 per barrel, down $0.56 (0.92%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.13 - $61.50 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple positive factors such as further improvement of the system, renewed expansion of funds, and continuous empowerment of industries, the long - term and steady - growth pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, fund protection, and industry drive." The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December is likely to boost global capital flow and risk appetite again, and continuous capital market reforms will further strengthen the foundation for the steady - growth trend. With the gradual implementation of the tone of important meetings in December, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut will resonate, potentially increasing market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4539.60, 4522.80, 4496.60, and 4453.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4574.00, 4555.60, 4531.00, and 4489.00 respectively. The price increases were 29.80, 27.40, 28.00, and 29.60 respectively, and the trading volumes were 74003.00, 8279.00, 35116.00, and 7056.00 respectively. The open interest was 113155.00, 20301.00, 118268.00, and 31235.00 respectively, with an increase of 1266.00, 3152.00, 8332.00, and 1133.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2969.80, 2962.60, 2961.80, and 2948.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2986.80, 2980.00, 2979.80, and 2966.40 respectively. The price increases were 21.20, 20.00, 22.80, and 22.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 32570.00, 3336.00, 15385.00, and 2310.00 respectively. The open interest was 47489.00, 6153.00, 33343.00, and 10023.00 respectively, with a change of - 211.00, 704.00, 3314.00, and 60.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7074.40, 7015.80, 6894.00, and 6691.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7174.00, 7115.00, 6998.80, and 6795.40 respectively. The price increases were 90.20, 92.60, 96.20, and 99.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 82739.00, 13122.00, 44665.00, and 11914.00 respectively. The open interest was 99631.00, 26329.00, 100787.00, and 37925.00 respectively, with an increase of 51.00, 4850.00, 9352.00, and 2326.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7304.60, 7222.80, 7063.00, and 6820.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7361.80, 7286.20, 7119.80, and 6880.00 respectively. The price increases were 49.40, 55.00, 52.80, and 56.80 respectively, and the trading volumes were 126483.00, 16755.00, 56716.00, and 17722.00 respectively. The open interest was 149811.00, 35293.00, 127987.00, and 65089.00 respectively, with a change of - 2749.00, 5989.00, 6429.00, and 154.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 18.40, - 6.80, - 59.00, and - 75.60 respectively, and the previous values were - 16.80, - 7.20, - 58.60, and - 81.80 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4580.95, 2994.64, 7169.79, and 7370.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4552.18, 2977.03, 7082.89, and 7312.00 respectively. The price increases were 0.63, 0.59, 1.23, and 0.81 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry had a decline of - 0.52%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had increases of 0.94%, 0.89%, and 0.58% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had increases of 0.66%, 0.29%, 0.35%, and 0.93% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities industries had increases of 0.55% and 0.53% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index were - 6.95, - 25.35, - 49.95, and - 91.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 12.58, - 29.38, - 55.58, and - 98.38 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts and the Shanghai 50 index were - 7.84, - 14.64, - 14.84, and - 28.24 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.23, - 14.43, - 15.23, and - 29.03 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were 4.21, - 54.79, - 170.99, and - 374.39 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 8.49, - 67.09, - 188.89, and - 391.89 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 9.14, - 84.74, - 251.14, and - 490.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.40, - 89.20, - 249.00, and - 491.40 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.35, 13258.33, 8020.01, and 3194.36 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3873.32, 13147.39, 7947.12, and 3163.67 respectively. The price increases were 0.41%, 0.84%, 0.92%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25976.79, 50148.82, 6827.41, and 24186.49 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25530.51, 50602.80, 6901.00, and 24294.61 respectively. The price increases were 1.75%, - 0.90%, - 1.07%, and - 0.45% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice proposing 11 specific measures in three aspects: deepening cooperation between the business and financial systems, increasing financial support for key consumption areas, and expanding government - policy - bank - enterprise docking cooperation [2] - Multiple departments are deploying to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and more incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 to boost consumption, promote investment recovery, and cultivate new growth drivers [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will hold important economic and trade activities in 2026 [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China invested over 700 billion yuan in high - standard farmland construction, supporting the construction and renovation of 460 million mu of high - standard farmland [2] 6. Industry Information - China's artificial intelligence industry has been accelerating development in 2025, with the core industry scale expected to exceed one trillion yuan [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of China's machinery industry added value was 7.1%, and the growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was 8.7% [2] - By 2030, China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters. By 2060, the proportions of fossil energy, hydropower and nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaics will be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30% respectively [2] - As the copper futures price exceeded $10,000 per ton this year, China is accelerating the promotion of "aluminum replacing copper" in air - conditioners and related standard formulation [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes declined, while the stock indexes in the previous trading session regained their upward momentum. The non - ferrous metals sector led the gains, and the commercial and retail sector led the losses. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan [2] - On December 11, the margin trading balance decreased by 6.26 billion yuan to 2490.146 billion yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices closed down by over 2% during the weekend night session. The concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still maintained high growth. Copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mine supply disturbances. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices closed down by over 1% during the weekend night session. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continued to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention. Suggestions include monitoring the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Weekend night - session price down over 2%, concentrate supply tight, smelting output with high growth, downstream demand mixed, supply - demand expected to be in deficit [2]. - Zinc: Weekend night - session price down over 1%, concentrate supply temporarily tight, smelting output growing, downstream demand mixed, overall supply - demand difference not obvious [2]. - Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, and Tin: Only price, basis, LME - related prices, inventory and inventory change data are provided without specific market analysis [2]. Price and Inventory Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,020 | - 30 | 11,553 | 20.69 | 165,850 | 875 | | Aluminum | 21,875 | - 60 | 2,875 | - 32.55 | 518,750 | - 2,050 | | Zinc | 22,970 | 45 | 3,139 | 90.60 | 60,350 | 550 | | Nickel | 115,400 | - 3,490 | 14,620 | - 186.45 | 252,852 | - 240 | | Lead | 17,170 | - 75 | 1,966 | - 49.62 | 235,475 | - 75 | | Tin | 318,710 | 320 | 41,125 | 17.00 | 3,695 | 40 | [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures continued to be weak during the day session and rebounded at night. The overall downstream demand has reached a high level and is being steadily released. Previously, the price was affected by the weakness of crude oil and the overall commodity market, causing the valuation of polyolefins to decline. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the rhythm of upstream supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary by Category Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6476, 6486, and 6519 respectively, with price drops of -58, -72, and -81 and declines of -0.89%, -1.10%, and -1.23%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 6129, 6168, and 6211, with drops of -48, -73, and -69 and declines of -0.78%, -1.17%, and -1.10% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes for LL in January, May, and September contracts were 168516, 367973, and 5244, and the open interests were 184121, 479677, and 8875, with changes of -42964, 28241, and 1378. For PP, the trading volumes were 285479, 285582, and 3813, and the open interests were 293184, 443312, and 20304, with changes of -58109, 42697, and 528 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -10, -33, and 43, compared to the previous values of -24, -42, and 66. For PP, the corresponding spreads were -39, -43, and 82, compared to the previous values of -64, -39, and 103 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2104 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 609 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6000 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2123 yuan/ton, 6090 yuan/ton, 603 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6040 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Middle - Stream**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 6600 - 6900 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6800 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the three markets were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6150 yuan/ton, and 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, and the previous values were 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton, 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton, and 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (December 12), the settlement price of the West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures contract for January 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $57.44 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.28% from the previous day, with a trading range of $57.15 - $60. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for February 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $61.12 per barrel, down $0.16 or 0.26% from the previous day, with a trading range of $60.81 - $61.86 [2] Comment and Strategy - For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable, while some prices of PetroChina were lowered by 70. For拉丝 PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable [2]

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日收盘价 | TS2603 102.464 | TS2606 102.482 | TF2603 105.820 | TF2606 105.810 | T2603 107.985 | T2606 108.000 | TL2603 112.47 | TL2606 112.66 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.474 | 102.492 | 105.885 | 105.885 | 108.100 | 108.115 | 113.19 | 113.34 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | -0.010 | -0.065 | -0.075 | -0.115 | -0.115 | -0.720 | -0.680 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.01% | -0.01% | -0.06% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose by over 2% overnight, inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, it generally continued to grow at a high rate. The supply disruption of mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply-demand expectation towards a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose by nearly 3% overnight, also inspired by the Fed's unexpected actions. The processing fee for zinc concentrates has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. The overall supply-demand difference of zinc is not obvious, but the current sentiment of the non-ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Overnight copper price rose by over 2%, influenced by the Fed's actions. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Smelting output decreased month - on - month but still shows high - growth overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. Mine supply disruptions turn the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 92,180 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 11,834 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 24.76 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 164,975 tons, and the daily change was - 700 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight zinc price rose by nearly 3%, affected by the Fed's actions. Zinc concentrate processing fees have dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, while smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not significant, but the market sentiment of non - ferrous metals should be noted [2]. - The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,970 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 65 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,198 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 172.81 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 59,800 tons, and the daily change was 1,650 tons [2]. Other Metals - For aluminum, the previous domestic futures closing price was 21,875 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 60 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,895 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 26.68 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 520,800 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - For nickel, the previous domestic futures closing price was 115,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 3,530 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 14,610 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 186.96 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 253,092 tons, and the daily change was 564 tons [2]. - For lead, the previous domestic futures closing price was 17,170 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 80 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 1,984 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 48.25 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 235,550 tons, and the daily change was - 1,375 tons [2]. - For tin, the previous domestic futures closing price was 318,710 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,180 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 41,880 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was 22.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 3,655 tons, and the daily change was 605 tons [2].