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申万期货品种策略日报-天胶-20260224
| | nimx@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586042 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | RU主力 | NR主力 | BR主力 | | RU-NR | RU-BR | NR-BR | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 16315 | 13180 | 12590 | 现值 | 3135 | 3725 | 590 | | 货 | 前2日收盘价 | 16450 | 13370 | 12780 | 前值 | 3080 | 3670 | 590 | | 市 | 涨跌 | -135 | -190 | -190 | 涨跌 | 55 | 55 | 0 | | 场 | 涨跌幅 | -0.82% | -1.42% | -1.49% | | | 基差 | | | | 成交量 | 165470 | 47212 | 12590 | | RU基差 | 混合-RU | 烟片-RU | | | 持仓量 | 140235 | 47785 | 54867 | 现值 ...
申万期货品种策略日报-生猪(LH)-20260224
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - The market will return to the basic pattern of "strong supply and weak demand" after the Spring Festival. The pig - price upward space is fundamentally restricted, but there won't be a panic - driven sharp decline due to the strong expectation of pig - price recovery in the second half of 2026. Short - term pig prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, with low possibilities of a significant upward or downward trend. However, be vigilant that the strong bullish sentiment may bring forward the upward trend to April or May, thus over - consuming the subsequent real market [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The previous day's closing prices for different contract months (March, January, May, July, September, November) were 13140, 10740, 11500, 12220, 13140, 13065 respectively, with price drops of - 140, - 155, - 40, - 10, - 40, - 95 and corresponding percentage drops of - 1.05%, - 1.42%, - 0.35%, - 0.08%, - 0.30%, - 0.72% compared to the prices two days ago [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes were 776, 14122, 38318, 5391, 3861, 1809 respectively, and the open interests were 2673, 30077, 136660, 49418, 37022, 23553 respectively. The open - interest changes were - 22, - 5078, - 4468, - 351, - 443, - 365 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads for 1 - 3 months, 3 - 5 months, 5 - 7 months, 7 - 9 months, 9 - 11 months, 11 - 1 months were 2400, - 760, - 720, - 920, 75, - 75 respectively, compared to the previous values of 2385, - 645, - 690, - 950, 20, - 120 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The current spot prices in different regions (Henan, Sichuan, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Liaoning) were 12.49, 11.3, 11.29, 11.67, 11.74, 11.5 yuan/ton respectively, with price changes of 0.06, 0.31, - 22.1, 0.2, 0.2, 0 compared to the previous values [2]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts was 1027, with no change [2].
首席点评:IEA需求预警施压油市
Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bullish**: Index futures (IH, IF, IC, IM), rubber, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium carbonate, corn [5] - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, methanol, steel, hot-rolled coil, iron ore, apple [5] Core Views - The IEA has lowered the forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 and expects a daily surplus of 373,000 barrels, mainly due to increased supply from OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ countries [1][3][12] - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that Brazil's cotton exports in the 2025/26 season will reach 14.5 million bales, a 6% year-on-year increase [1] - The COMEX's silver inventory has decreased, with a net out-of-warehouse volume of 4.7 million ounces in 24 hours [1] - Most domestic futures contracts fell at the night session, with crude oil down over 2% and caustic soda up over 3% [1] - The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - For precious metals, after market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - US President Trump is expected to visit China in early April, and President Xi Jinping will meet with him. The China-US trade "ceasefire" is expected to be extended [6] Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1-trillion-yuan outright repurchase operation on February 13, with a 6-month term. The 6-month outright repurchase will be increased for the sixth consecutive month, with an increase of 50 billion yuan [7] Industry News - The Ministry of Education has issued an opinion on deepening the reform of key elements in vocational education teaching, focusing on adding new majors in fields such as low-altitude economy and artificial intelligence [8] 2. Daily Returns of External Markets - Most external market varieties showed price declines on February 12, with London silver having the largest drop of 10.73%, followed by ICE Brent crude oil at 2.99% and London gold at 3.17%. Only a few varieties such as ICE No. 2 cotton, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT wheat showed price increases [9] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**:The overall stock index is expected to continue its phased bullish pattern in February, but potential disturbances from overseas capital markets during the Spring Festival holiday should be watched out for [4][10] - **Treasury Bonds**:Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**:sc crude oil fell 5.14% at the night session. The global oil market is facing a large surplus, with supply growth outpacing demand [3][12] - **Methanol**:Methanol fell 0.04% at the night session. The overall coastal inventory is basically flat, and the inventory process is slow [13] - **Natural Rubber**:Natural rubber slightly declined. With the approaching Spring Festival, risk control and position reduction are recommended [14] - **Polyolefins**:Polyolefin futures mainly fell. The market currently focuses on the expectation of supply improvement, and short-term prices follow cost fluctuations [15] - **Glass and Soda Ash**:Glass futures slightly fell, and soda ash futures mainly declined. The supply and demand of glass are gradually being repaired, while the supply of soda ash has slightly shrunk, and the effectiveness of supply and demand repair needs further observation [16] Metals - **Precious Metals**:Precious metals fell, with silver having a larger decline. After market adjustment and the accumulation of new positive factors, gold is expected to return to a steady upward channel, and investors are advised to wait and see for silver [2][17] - **Copper**:Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [18] - **Zinc**:Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non-ferrous metals. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [19] - **Aluminum**:The short-term industrial situation of aluminum is relatively weak, but in the long term, low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relatively strong support for the price [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**:The market sentiment has turned weak again, and the futures price of lithium carbonate has continued to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to the right-side trading opportunities after volatility reduction and participate cautiously [21][22] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**:The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a volatile trend at the night session. After the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the trend of hot metal production, mine operation, and import policies [23] - **Steel**:The steel market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to continue the volatile and weak pattern [24] - **Iron Ore**:The short-term iron ore price is expected to maintain a volatile and weak operation, and steel mills are expected to replenish inventory on demand [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**:Domestic soybean meal has strengthened following the external market, but the high inventory and sufficient supply in the far month are expected to continue to put pressure on prices [26][27] - **Oils and Fats**:Oils and fats showed a weak and volatile trend at the night session. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia is in the de-stocking cycle, and prices are expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [28] - **Sugar**:Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short term, with the international sugar price breaking through the downward trend [29] - **Cotton**:Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range-bound trend in the near term, with potential pressure on the upside in the short term [30] - **Hogs**:The short-term hog price may show a narrow-range shock, supported by sentiment and local inventory replenishment, but the overall upside space is limited [31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**:EC rose 6.4%. Before the Spring Festival, it is expected to be in a volatile pattern, and after the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the verification of cargo volume expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [32][33]
20260213申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(J&J)-20260213
品排行国期货 申银万国期货研究所 沈击莽 (从业编号F03148029 交易咨询号Z0022842) 20260213申万期货品种策略日报-双焦(JI&J) | shenyb@sywgqh. con. cn 021-50582113 | 11.1 18 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5月 | 1月 5月 9月 1月 | | | | | | 9 H | | 前1日收盘价 | 1373.5 1120.0 1200.0 1827.0 1664.0 | | | | | | 1739.0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1377.0 1123.5 1203. 5 1832. 0 1667.0 | | | | | | 1742.0 | | 煮跌 | -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -5.0 -3.0 | Eil | | | | | -3.0 | | 煮跌幅 | -0. 25% -0. 31% -0. 29% -0. 27% -0.18% | 黑 | | | | | -0.17% | | 成交堂 | 1006 528830 296 ...
申万期货品种策略日报-油脂油料-20260213
| 指标 | CNF到岸价: | | | 申万期货品种策略日报- | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 马来西亚棕 榈油:连续 | | 2026/2/13 | 油脂油料 | | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | | 李霁月(从业编号:F03119649;交易咨询号:Z0019570) | | | | | | | | lijy@sywgqh.com.cn | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | 棕榈油主力 | 菜油主力 | 豆粕主力 | 菜粕主力 | 花生主力 | | | 前日收盘价 | 8082 | 8782 | 9047 | 2790 | 2415 | 8844 | | 国 | 涨跌 | -28 | -124 | -84 | 17 | 21 | 26 | | 内 | 涨跌幅(%) | -0.35% | -1.39% | -3.15% | 0.61% | 0.88% | 0.29% | | 期 | 价差 | Y9-1 | P9-1 | OI9-1 | Y-P09 | OI-Y09 | OI-P09 | ...
20260213申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃(LL&PP)-20260213
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly, with Sinopec and PetroChina keeping prices stable for linear LL and拉丝PP. The market currently focuses on supply improvement expectations, and the macro - to - commodity transmission has increased. Short - term polyolefins follow cost fluctuations. The current spot drive for polyolefins is relatively limited, and the market pays more attention to the driving rhythm of macro factors. With the long holiday approaching, positions should be gradually controlled [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For linear LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices were 6800, 6734, and 6781 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of - 54 (- 0.79%), - 53 (- 0.78%), and - 55 (- 0.80%) yuan/ton. For拉丝PP, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices were 6645, 6648, and 6674 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of - 36 (- 0.54%), - 45 (- 0.67%), and - 47 (- 0.70%) yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of linear LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures were 171, 258012, and 18078 respectively, while for拉丝PP, they were 56, 210709, and 14456 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of linear LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures were 1082, 501315, and 69632 respectively, with changes of 54, - 2602, and 202 respectively. For拉丝PP, the open interests were 2673, 479342, and 110409 respectively, with changes of - 12, - 7495, and - 1177 respectively [2] - **Spreads**: For linear LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 66, - 47, and - 19 respectively, compared with previous values of 67, - 49, and - 18. For拉丝PP, the current spreads were - 3, - 26, and 29 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12, - 28, and 40 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2234 yuan/ton, 6440 yuan/ton, 632 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6490 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Most prices were stable compared with the previous day [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of linear LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6900 yuan/ton, and 6800 - 7050 yuan/ton respectively. For拉丝PP, the price ranges were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6800 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Thursday (February 12), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for March 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.84 per barrel, down $1.79 (2.77%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.39 - $65.1. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for April 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $67.52 per barrel, down $1.88 (2.71%) from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $67.09 - $69.85 [2]
集运欧线数据日报-20260213
Group 1: Report's Core View - The spot freight rate for large containers in the European container shipping line is expected to remain around $2,080 at the end of February, corresponding to about 1,400 points, and the actual discount margin has narrowed. The spot market has limited drivers for speculation due to the expected off - season. Maersk's cabin opening for the first week of March at a flat price of $1,900 may indicate the falsification of price - support efforts, but the market is expected to be volatile before the holiday. After the holiday, it will be the verification period for the rush - export of photovoltaic products and the actual implementation of the March price increase letters. Pay attention to the potential falsification of expectations from the spot market after the holiday [1] Group 2: EC Contract Volume and Price - EC2604: The latest transaction price is 1,258.9 points, with a daily increase of 6.4%. The trading volume is 36,394 (a change of 19,190 from the previous period), and the open interest is 31,021 (a decrease of 2,006 from the previous period). The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2,767 [2] - EC2606: The latest transaction price is 1,566.1 points, with a daily increase of 4.78%. The trading volume is 4,232 (an increase of 577 from the previous period), and the open interest is 13,387 (a decrease of 798 from the previous period) [2] - EC2608: The latest transaction price is 1,632 points, with a daily increase of 3.11%. The trading volume is 452 (an increase of 189 from the previous period), and the open interest is 1,402 (an increase of 31 from the previous period) [2] - EC2610: The latest transaction price is 1,131.1 points, with a daily increase of 1.69%. The trading volume is 1,230 (an increase of 276 from the previous period), and the open interest is 8,090 (a decrease of 218 from the previous period) [2] - EC2612: The latest transaction price is 1,425.4 points, with a daily increase of 2.89%. The trading volume is 15 (an increase of 6 from the previous period), and the open interest is 122 (a decrease of 3 from the previous period) [2] - Total: The total trading volume is 42,323, and the total open interest is 54,022. The net long position of the top 20 members is - 2,767 [2] Group 3: Latest Spot Freight Rates - European Routes - Weekly Spot Index: SCFIS is 1,657.94 points, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.5%; SCFI is $1,403/TEU, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.1% [4] - Daily Spot Freight Rates: TCI(20GP) is $1,568/TEU, with no change; TCI(40GP) is $2,630/FEU, with no change [4] - Basis Spread: The basis spread of the previous trading day is 399.04 points, a decrease of 81 points from the day before the previous trading day [4]
20260213申万期货有色金属基差日报-20260213
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Copper prices closed 2.25% lower overnight. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Copper prices may enter an adjustment phase in the short term [2] - Zinc prices closed 0.87% lower overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventory is generally at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night - time price drop: 2.25% [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profit at the break - even point, smelting output growth continues [2] - Downstream demand: Power investment stable, auto production and sales growing, home appliance production scheduling negative, real estate weak [2] - Price trend: May enter an adjustment phase in the short term [2] - Domestic previous futures closing price: 101,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 80 yuan/ton, previous LME3 - month closing price: 12,856 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount: - 94.71 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 192,100 tons, LME inventory daily change: 3,000 tons [2] Zinc - Night - time price drop: 0.87% [2] - Supply situation: Zinc concentrate processing fees decline, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continues to grow [2] - Downstream demand: Galvanized sheet inventory high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales growing, home appliance production scheduling negative, real estate weak [2] - Price trend: May follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [2] - Domestic previous futures closing price: 24,575 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 25 yuan/ton, previous LME3 - month closing price: 3,382 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount: - 28.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 105,250 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,500 tons [2] Other Metals - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous futures closing price 23,530 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 160 yuan/ton, previous LME3 - month closing price 3,098 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 32.16 dollars/ton, LME inventory 485,750 tons, LME inventory daily change - 1,225 tons [2] - **Nickel**: Domestic previous futures closing price 139,810 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 5,230 yuan/ton, previous LME3 - month closing price 17,250 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 205.08 dollars/ton, LME inventory 285,750 tons, LME inventory daily change 0 tons [2] - **Lead**: Domestic previous futures closing price 16,690 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 130 yuan/ton, previous LME3 - month closing price 1,984 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 47.05 dollars/ton, LME inventory 232,950 tons, LME inventory daily change 200 tons [2] - **Tin**: Domestic previous futures closing price 392,000 yuan/ton, domestic basis 1,840 yuan/ton, previous LME3 - month closing price 47,800 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 194.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 7,550 tons, LME inventory daily change 120 tons [2]
20260213申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇-20260213
1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The global oil market is facing a significant surplus in 2026, with daily supply expected to exceed demand by 3.73 million barrels. The supply growth rate is faster than demand due to OPEC+ increasing production since April 2025 and output boosts from other producers like the US, Guyana, and Brazil. The IEA has lowered the global daily oil supply growth forecast to 2.4 million barrels this year, still much higher than demand growth [3]. - The domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins device's average operating load is 80.88%, up 0.27 percentage points. Coastal methanol inventory is basically flat with slow inventory reduction, and the overall domestic methanol device operating load is 78.20%, down 0.12 percentage points from the previous period but up 2.08 percentage points year - on - year [3]. 3. Summary by Category Futures Market - **Price Changes**: SC near - month contract price increased by 0.3 yuan (0.06%), SC next - month remained unchanged; WTI near - month dropped by $1.98 (-3.05%), WTI next - month fell by $1.99 (-3.07%); Brent near - month rose by $0.55 (0.80%), Brent next - month increased by $0.54 (0.79%) [2]. - **Trading Volume**: SC near - month had a trading volume of 2,652, SC next - month had 89,585; WTI near - month had 298,943, WTI next - month had 217,319; Brent near - month had 333,597, Brent next - month had 216,713 [2]. - **Open Interest**: SC near - month open interest decreased by 1,824 to 2,419, SC next - month decreased by 2,197 to 43,716; WTI near - month decreased by 27,598 to 234,240, WTI next - month increased by 3,656 to 241,210; Brent near - month decreased by 29,632 to 540,674, Brent next - month increased by 29,786 to 492,239 [2]. - **Spreads**: SC near - month - SC next - month spread changed from - 6.2 to - 5.9 yuan/barrel, etc. [2]. Spot Market - **International Market**: OPEC basket price rose from 67.86 to 68.52, Brent DTD from 72.41 to 73.15, etc. [2]. - **Domestic Market**: Daqing crude price rose from 66.23 to 66.94, Chinese gasoline wholesale price index from 7,420 to 7,425 yuan/ton, etc. [2]. Commodity - Specific Analysis - **Crude Oil**: SC night - session dropped by 5.14%. The global oil market has a large surplus, and supply growth outpaces demand [3]. - **Methanol**: Methanol night - session fell by 0.04%. The domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins device's operating load increased, coastal inventory is basically flat, and the overall domestic methanol device operating load decreased slightly compared to the previous period [3].
20260213中万期货品种策略日报:软商品-20260213
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the overall surplus pattern remains unchanged. The current sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle, which drags down sugar prices. However, considering the current low level of raw sugar prices, it is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term. Domestically, during the peak crushing season of southern sugar mills, the seasonal increase in sugar supply under the background of increased production leads to gradually emerging supply pressure. On the import side, sugar imports exceed market expectations and suppress the market. On the spot side, prices are weak, and pre - holiday consumption shows no improvement. With the international sugar price breaking down, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term [4]. - For cotton, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton opened higher overnight and then declined. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate decreases, and the restocking of textile mills is coming to an end, but there is still some demand support. The spot cotton price is relatively firm, and the competitive procurement of large enterprises supports the cotton price. Considering the suppression of domestic cotton consumption by imported cotton and cotton yarn, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the near future. Currently, the futures price is at the upper limit of the range, and with the previous positive factors already apparent, there may be short - term upward pressure, mainly in a range - bound pattern [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - Sugar futures prices generally declined. For example, the price of SR2609 decreased by 16 points, with a decline rate of 0.30%; the price of 11 - sugar 2603 decreased by 0.06, with a decline rate of 0.43%. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also changed. For instance, the open interest of SR2609 increased by 21, while that of SR2605 decreased by 8525 [2]. - The comparison ratios and spreads of different sugar contracts also changed. For example, the current value of SR2605 - SR2509 is 3, compared with the previous value of 4 [2]. Spot Market - The current price of white sugar in Liuzhou is 5370, the same as the previous price, while the price of white sugar in Kunming is not available this time. The basis of Liuzhou and Kunming for SR2509 also changed. For example, the basis of Liuzhou SR2509 increased from 108 to 119 [2]. - The import prices of white sugar from Brazil and Thailand also changed. For example, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar decreased from 3374 to 3331 [2]. Inventory and Position - The total number of white sugar warehouse receipts and effective forecasts remains unchanged at 14719. The non - commercial long and short positions of ICE 11 - sugar changed, and the long - to - short ratio decreased from 0.48 to 0.42 [2]. Industry Information - In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season in Yunnan, 51 sugar mills have started crushing, 1 less than the same period last year. The estimated sugar - cane crushing capacity is 18.66 tons per day, an increase of 0.37 tons per day compared with the same period last year. The start - up time of the last sugar mill is estimated to be in late February, about 2 weeks later than the same period last year [3]. - The US Department of Agriculture predicts that the sugar production in the 2025/26 year starting in October will reach a record high of 9.41 million short tons, mainly due to the increase in cane sugar production. The sugar inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 15.9%. The estimated sugar imports in the 2025/26 year are 2.24 million short tons, lower than the previous year's 3.39 million short tons. The estimated sugar consumption is 12.2 million short tons, the lowest level since the pandemic [3]. - According to the latest sugar - cane crushing report of the Maharashtra Sugar Industry Commission, as of February 8, 2026, sugar mills in the state have crushed 90.66 million tons of sugar cane in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, a significant increase compared with the same period last year. A total of 8.44 million tons of sugar have been produced, with an average sugar yield of 9.31% [4].