Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the documents Core Viewpoints - The A-share market has a high investment cost-performance ratio in the long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies, and their high growth potential may bring higher returns. The SSE 50 and CSI 300 have more defensive value in the current macro environment. The proportion of medium and long-term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility. Currently, policy signals are clear, and valuations are starting to recover, but the fundamentals have not been verified [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Market 1. Futures Contracts - **IF Contracts**: The closing prices of IF contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 20.00, 20.80, 16.40, and 18.20 respectively. The trading volumes were 23,577.00, 53,170.00, 12,168.00, and 3,531.00, and the open interest decreased by 4,718.00, 7,721.00, increased by 562.00, and increased by 685.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The closing prices of IH contracts decreased, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 16.40, 17.00, 17.20, and 15.40 respectively. The trading volumes were 12,022.00, 30,341.00, 4,009.00, and 855.00, and the open interest decreased by 599.00, 2,625.00, 72.00, and 155.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The closing prices of IC contracts decreased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter falling by 1.40, 1.80, 2.00, and 3.80 respectively. The trading volumes were 21,529.00, 39,078.00, 11,549.00, and 4,777.00, and the open interest decreased by 2,979.00, 2,797.00, 128.00, and increased by 1,671.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The closing prices of IM contracts increased slightly, with the current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after the next quarter rising by 2.00, 2.20, 0.80, and 0.60 respectively. The trading volumes were 32,877.00, 98,231.00, 21,466.00, and 6,839.00, and the open interest decreased by 3,636.00, 8,546.00, 339.00, and increased by 1,231.00 respectively [1] 2. Inter - month Spreads - The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts changed, with the current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month being - 6.80, 1.20, - 45.20, and - 62.40 respectively, compared to the previous values of - 5.80, 1.20, - 43.60, and - 57.20 [1] II. Spot Market 1. Major Indexes - **CSI 300 Index**: The index decreased by 0.53%, with a previous value of 4,127.16, a trading volume of 27.359 billion lots, and a total trading value of 430.446 billion yuan [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The index decreased by 0.60%, with a previous value of 2,795.51, a trading volume of 5.169 billion lots, and a total trading value of 114.043 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The index increased by 0.10%, with a previous value of 6,299.59, a trading volume of 23.706 billion lots, and a total trading value of 304.368 billion yuan [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The index increased by 0.08%, with a previous value of 6,706.61, a trading volume of 26.4 billion lots, and a total trading value of 363.14 billion yuan [1] 2. Industry Indexes - Different industries showed different trends. For example, the energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption sectors decreased by 1.10%, 0.59%, 1.21%, and 1.48% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, and information technology sectors decreased by 1.65%, 0.30%, 0.32%, and increased by 1.43% respectively. The telecommunications and public utilities sectors decreased by 0.53% and 0.70% respectively [1] III. Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts relative to their corresponding spot indexes changed compared to the previous two days. For example, the basis of IF current month - CSI 300 was - 4.36, compared to - 2.04 two days ago [1] IV. Other Indexes 1. Domestic Indexes - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.22%, the Small and Medium - sized Board Index increased by 0.28%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.23% [1] 2. International Indexes - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 1.09%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by 0.88%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.40%, and the DAX Index decreased by 0.32% [1] V. Macro Information - A batch of new regulations came into effect on August 1st, including the Hong Kong "Stablecoin Ordinance", the "Measures for the Administration of Anti - Money Laundering and Counter - Terrorist Financing of Precious Metals and Gemstone Institutions", etc. The US will resume imposing so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1st. The State Council Executive Meeting approved the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative" and deployed loan interest subsidy policies. The July China Manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decrease of 0.4 percentage points. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized work in nine aspects for the second half of the year [2] VI. Industry Information - The National Healthcare Security Administration formulated a new pricing mechanism for newly launched drugs and added more than 100 price items related to medical new technologies. The National Energy Administration is formulating policies for high - power charging facilities construction. In the first half of the year, the country's renewable energy new installed capacity was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%. The financial regulatory authority required urban commercial medical insurance to highlight its inclusive nature [2]

Report Information - Report Date: August 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Shenwan Futures Variety Strategy Daily Report - Treasury Bonds - Analyst: Tang Guanghua from Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute (Qualification No.: F3010997; Trading Consultation No.: Z0011162) [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose in the previous trading day, and short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Given the "anti - involution" policy expectations, the prices of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize in the short term when the equity and commodity markets are weak [2][3]. Summary by Section Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of all treasury bond futures contracts rose, with T2509 rising 0.17%. The T2509 contract's trading volume was 69,263, and its open interest decreased by 2,277. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - **Interest Rate Spread**: The inter - term spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts were - 0.068, - 0.080, 0.030, and 0.330 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous values [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 rates decreased by 0.4bp, 3.07bp, and 15.1bp respectively [2]. - **Chinese Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term Chinese treasury bonds generally declined. The 10 - year treasury bond yield decreased by 2.59bp to 1.7%, and the 10 - 2 year yield spread was 27.8bp [2]. - **Overseas Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10 - year US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10 - year German treasury bond yield increased by 1bp, and the 10 - year Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 0.6bp [2]. Macroeconomic News - **Monetary Policy**: On July 31, the central bank conducted 283.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 47.8 billion yuan [3]. - **Policy Meetings**: The State Council Executive Meeting passed the "Opinions on Deeply Implementing the 'Artificial Intelligence +' Initiative", and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized efforts in the second half of the year to achieve economic goals [3]. - **Economic Data**: China's official manufacturing PMI in July was 49.3, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease; the comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, a 0.5 - percentage - point decrease; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease [3]. - **Overseas News**: The US will resume collecting so - called "reciprocal tariffs" on August 1. The core PCE price index in the US in June increased by 2.8% year - on - year, higher than expected [3]. Industry Information and Strategy - **Interest Rate Trends**: On July 31, most money market interest rates in China rose, and US treasury bond yields showed mixed trends [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize in the short term due to the "anti - involution" policy expectations and the weak performance of the equity and commodity markets [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures mainly declined. In the spot market, the prices of linear LL and drawn PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Currently, from a fundamental perspective, market enthusiasm has cooled, and the polyolefin spot market is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors. Summer maintenance is in balance, and inventories are being slowly digested. Future focus should be on the autumn restocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price Changes**: For LL, the 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month futures prices decreased by 43, 34, and 37 respectively, with declines of - 0.58%, - 0.46%, and - 0.50%. For PP, the corresponding decreases were 23, 11, and 27, with declines of - 0.32%, - 0.15%, and - 0.38% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 85106, 897, and 211583 respectively; for PP, they were 72769, 690, and 188972 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for 1 - month, 5 - month, and 9 - month were 170116, 7879, and 326961 respectively; for PP, they were 190211, 10289, and 288497. The changes in open interest were 4000, 231, - 7196 for LL and - 935, 100, - 11205 for PP [2] - **Price Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of 1 - month - 5 - month, 5 - month - 9 - month, and 9 - month - 1 - month were 9, 40, and - 49 respectively; for PP, they were 4, 22, and - 26. The previous spreads were 18, 37, - 55 for LL and 16, 6, - 22 for PP [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, and South China propane were 2406 yuan/ton, 6245 yuan/ton, and 538 dollars/ton respectively, with previous prices of 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, and 544 dollars/ton. The prices of PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film remained unchanged at 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream**: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; for PP, they were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton [2] News - On Thursday (July 31), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.26 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.06% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.56 - $70.41. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.53 per barrel, down $0.71 or 0.97% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $72.4 - $73.53 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weakly volatile. The U.S. soybean is growing well, with a higher-than-expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in U.S. soybean futures prices. However, due to the lack of a substantial agreement between China and the U.S., the logic of a domestic supply gap remains unchanged, and import costs will support the price of Dalian soybean meal [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils closed slightly lower. High-frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increased month-on-month in July, while exports were weak, strengthening the expectation of inventory accumulation in July and dragging down the recent performance of palm oil. Due to the high level of imported soybeans in China, the supply of domestic soybean oil is sufficient, and the price is low. China's export of soybean oil to India poses a substitution risk, which may put pressure on the demand for palm oil in the origin and cause concerns about future exports. It is expected that oils will be weakly volatile in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8192, 8900, and 9510 respectively, with changes of -48, -82, and -111, and percentage changes of -0.58%, -0.91%, and -3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 3000, 2702, and 8844 respectively, with changes of -10, -28, and 26, and percentage changes of -0.33%, -1.03%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil is currently 52, compared to the previous value of 38 [1]. 3.2 International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 990 (cents/bushel), 55 (cents/pound), and 276 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, -6, -1, and 2, and percentage changes of 0.33%, -0.58%, -2.42%, and 0.73% respectively [1]. 3.3 Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals have changed compared to the previous situation. For example, the current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8370 and 8400 respectively, with percentage changes of -0.48% and -0.47% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis and spreads also show differences from the previous values. For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 178 [1]. 3.4 Import and Crushing - **Profitability**: The current import profitability of various varieties has changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current import profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil is -444, compared to the previous value of -355 [1]. 3.5 Warehouse Receipts - **Quantities and Changes**: The current quantities of warehouse receipts for various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the current quantity of soybean oil warehouse receipts is 0, compared to the previous value of 13,709 [1]. 3.6 Industry Information - **Indonesia's Policy**: Indonesia will set the reference price of crude palm oil (CPO) in August at $910.91 per metric ton, higher than $877.89 in July [2]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil Exports**: According to ITS data, Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1,289,727 tons, a 6.71% decrease from the same period last month. According to AmSpec, exports were 1,163,216 tons, a 9.58% decrease from the same period last month [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations. The spot copper price closed lower at night. The overall processing fee for concentrate is currently at a low level, testing smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and improving, with positive growth in the power and auto industries, a slowdown in home appliance output growth, and continued weakness in the real estate sector. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance output [2]. - Zinc prices may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations. The spot zinc price closed higher at night. The processing fee for concentrate has been rising recently. The supply of concentrate has improved significantly this year, and smelting supply may recover. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector remains weak. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs, as well as changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance output [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Futures Market Data - **Copper**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 78,100 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 115 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 9,607 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 50.76 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 136,850 tons, and the daily change was 9,225 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 20,675 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,563 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 2.64 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 460,350 tons, and the daily change was 4,250 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 22,635 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 5 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 2,762 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 6.56 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 109,050 tons, and the daily change was - 3,100 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 121,520 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 1,470 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 14,950 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 200.20 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 208,092 tons, and the daily change was 3,180 tons [2]. - **Lead**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 16,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 145 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 1,970 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 40.86 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 276,375 tons, and the daily change was 6,025 tons [2]. - **Tin**: The domestic previous - day futures closing price was 267,570 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 250 yuan/ton, the previous - day LME 3 - month closing price was 32,685 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium (CASH - 3M) was - 16.00 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 1,945 tons, and the daily change was 90 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's official manufacturing PMI in July 2025 fell to 49.3, and the new orders index dropped to 49.4, while the non - manufacturing sector remained in expansion. The market demand for manufacturing has slowed down [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares have high investment value. Among them, CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are more supported by science and innovation policies and may bring higher returns, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][9][10]. - Domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The market focus has returned to supply and demand, and the speed of upstream inventory digestion should be concerned in the future [3][15]. - Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate. The long - term drivers of gold still provide support, but the upward movement is hesitant due to high prices. Attention should be paid to the performance of the US non - farm payrolls [4][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Main News on the Day International News - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased by 1,000 to 218,000, lower than the market expectation of 224,000. The number of continuing jobless claims in the previous week remained unchanged at 1.946 million [5]. Domestic News - In June 2025, China's exports of goods and services in the balance of payments were $329.2 billion, imports were $259.1 billion, and the surplus was $70.1 billion [6]. Industry News - In the first half of the year, the newly installed capacity of renewable energy in China was 268 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 99.3%, accounting for about 91.5% of the newly installed capacity. The installed capacity of new energy storage reached 94.91 million kilowatts/222 million kilowatt - hours, an increase of about 29% compared with the end of 2024 [7]. 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 fell 0.37%, the European STOXX 50 dropped 1.11%, the FTSE China A50 futures declined 1.69%, the US dollar index rose 0.08%, ICE Brent crude oil fell 1.25%, London gold spot rose 0.45%, London silver dropped 1.16%, LME metals declined to varying degrees, and most agricultural products in CBOT showed small fluctuations [8]. 3. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The US three major indexes fell, and the stock index had a significant correction in the previous trading day. The banking sector with high interest and low volatility has performed well since 2025. In the long - term, A - shares have high investment value [2][9][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to rise, and the yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond fell to 1.70%. In the short - term, when the equity and commodity markets are weak, the price of treasury bond futures may continue to stabilize [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc night session fell 0.71%. Trump's tariff policies have added uncertainty to global oil demand. The US crude oil production in May reached a record high of 13.49 million barrels per day. Attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [12]. - **Methanol**: The methanol night session fell 0.08%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased slightly, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [13]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures mainly declined. The market is mainly driven by supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the autumn stocking market after supply and demand digestion [14]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures continued to correct. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to the speed of upstream inventory digestion [3][15]. - **Rubber**: The price of raw rubber is supported by supply - side factors, but the demand - side support is weak. The inventory in Qingdao is increasing, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [16]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold rebounded after a decline, and silver continued to correct. The Fed's internal views are divided, and the market is speculating on the possibility of a rate cut in September. Gold and silver may continue to fluctuate [4][17]. - **Copper**: The copper price at night session closed lower. The copper price may fluctuate within a range due to the combination of long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs and other factors [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price at night session closed higher. The zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the progress of US tariffs and other factors [19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate rose significantly due to the mining qualification issue in Jiangxi. The inventory continued to increase, and the fundamentals are still under pressure. The short - term core contradiction lies in the warehouse receipt inventory [20][21]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported, but the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The iron ore price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the future [22]. - **Steel**: The decline of rebar is greater than that of hot - rolled coil. The supply - demand contradiction in the steel market is not significant for the time being, and the steel price is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish in the future [23]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the Politburo meeting, the short - term market sentiment has declined. After the correction, it is expected to maintain a range - bound and slightly bullish trend [24]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures were weakly volatile at night. The good growth of US soybeans has put pressure on the price, but the import cost will support the domestic soybean meal price [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: The oils and fats futures closed slightly lower at night. The expected inventory build - up of Malaysian palm oil in July has dragged down the palm oil price, and the oils and fats are expected to be weakly volatile in the short - term [26][27]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC was weakly volatile, and the 10 - contract closed at 1425.1 points, down 4.66%. The market will continue to game the off - season freight rate, and attention should be paid to the degree and slope of the freight rate correction [28].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Polyolefin futures fluctuated within the day. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, due to the increasingly clear macro - situation of domestic anti - involution, polyolefins may experience short - term wide - range fluctuations with market divergence emerging. The spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in progress, and attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair. Recently, supply and demand tend to gradually digest the inventory accumulated in the second quarter [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7442, 7424, and 7387 respectively. The price changes were 4, - 1, and 2, with percentage changes of 0.05%, - 0.01%, and 0.03%. The trading volumes were 90243, 1023, and 244663, and the open interests were 166116, 7648, and 334157, with changes of 3501, 191, and - 9463 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 18, 37, and - 55, compared to the previous values of 13, 40, and - 53 [2] PP Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7167, 7151, and 7145 respectively. The price changes were 1, - 7, and - 15, with percentage changes of 0.01%, - 0.10%, and - 0.21%. The trading volumes were 90691, 884, and 208517, and the open interests were 191146, 10189, and 299702, with changes of 11092, 353, and - 9052 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 16, 6, and - 22, compared to the previous values of 8, - 2, and - 6 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market Raw Materials - The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2421 yuan/ton, 6250 yuan/ton, 543 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous values of 2436 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, 544 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6880 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous prices of 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7200 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively, compared to the previous prices of 7300 - 7650 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton [2] Information - On Wednesday (July 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $70.00 per barrel, up $0.79 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.45 - $70.51. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $73.24 per barrel, up $0.73 or 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $71.75 - $73.63 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Domestic macro - policies are set to continue and increase efforts, with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to be implemented. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and the market is speculating about a possible September rate cut [1]. - In the long - term, A - shares offer good investment value. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to policy support, while the SSE 50 and SSE 300 have defensive value [2][11]. - Gold and silver are likely to continue to fluctuate. Although there are long - term drivers, the high price makes upward movement hesitant [3][19]. - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. However, the economic data improvement may be overestimated, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 - **International News**: The initial estimate of the annualized quarterly growth rate of the US real GDP in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The annualized quarterly growth rate of the core PCE price index was 2.5%, down from the previous 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3% [6]. - **Domestic News**: Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Commerce Minister Wang Wentao met with the board delegation of the US - China Business Council, emphasizing the need to establish communication channels and maintain stable Sino - US economic and trade relations [7]. - **Industry News**: The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association plans to strictly control new production capacity of copper smelting and alumina, and guide the rational layout of new capacity for silicon, lithium, and magnesium [8]. 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The S&P 500 decreased by 0.12%, the European STOXX 50 increased by 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures increased by 0.13%, the US dollar index increased by 1.06%, ICE Brent crude oil increased by 0.98%, and gold and silver prices declined [9]. 3.3主要品种早盘评论 - **Financial**: - **Stock Index**: The US three major indices showed mixed performance. The previous trading day saw index differentiation, with small - cap stocks weakening. The bank sector has performed well since 2025, and it is expected that the proportion of long - term funds in the capital market will gradually increase. A - shares have high long - term investment value [2][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined. Overseas, the US GDP growth exceeded expectations, and the Fed kept interest rates unchanged. Domestically, industrial enterprise profits improved, and the IMF raised China's GDP growth forecast. Short - term Treasury bond futures prices may stabilize [12]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Crude Oil**: International oil prices rose for three consecutive days. The US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but the improvement may be overestimated. US crude oil inventories increased, and attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [4][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and the short - term trend is mainly bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated during the day. Spot prices were stable. In the short - term, they will fluctuate widely, and the market is divided. The focus is on the process of fundamental repair [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures rebounded and then declined. The summer maintenance led to supply contraction, and inventories decreased. The short - term focus is on policy implementation and fundamental digestion speed [17]. - **Rubber**: The recent rainfall in the producing areas affected rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to correct [18]. - **Metals**: - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, and there were uncertainties about a September rate cut. The US economic data showed resilience, and the long - term drivers of gold still provided support, but the high price made upward movement difficult [3][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices closed lower at night. The US only imposed a 50% tariff on copper products, exempting refined copper. The processing fee for concentrates is low, and downstream demand is generally stable. Copper prices may fluctuate in a range [20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices closed lower at night. The processing fee for concentrates has been rising. Domestic demand shows mixed performance, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely in the short - term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose due to mining qualification issues. The demand in July continued to be strong, but the inventory increased. The short - term focus is on warehouse receipts, and the medium - term does not have the basis for a reversal [23]. - **Black Metals**: - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by strong production momentum of steel mills, but the global iron ore shipment has decreased recently. The inventory at ports is decreasing rapidly, and the medium - term supply - demand imbalance pressure is large. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the inventory is decreasing. Steel exports are facing challenges, but billet exports are strong. The short - term market is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily average pig iron production decreased slightly, and the coke production improved. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while that in coal mines decreased. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish after adjustment [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The US soybean growth is good, and the futures price is under pressure. The domestic protein meal price is supported by concerns about soybean supply and the rise of rapeseed meal price [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean and palm oil futures were weak at night, while rapeseed oil fluctuated and closed up. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased, and the export decreased. The market is concerned about trade trends, which support the oil and fat sector [29]. - **Shipping Index**: - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 0.45%. The spot freight rate has begun to loosen, and the 10 - contract is at a deep discount, which provides some support. The market will gradually shift to the off - season freight rate game [30].

Report Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating Core View - Gold continued to decline. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but two Fed officials voted against the decision. Powell stated that no decision has been made on the first rate cut in September as expected by the market, but "downside risks in the labor market are obvious." With the progress of trade negotiations, the US dollar index strengthened, and gold prices weakened continuously. Silver also declined against the backdrop of an overall correction in industrial products. After the US reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, risk aversion cooled, but there is still some uncertainty in China-US negotiations. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates, but rates are expected to remain unchanged in July, and the market is speculating on a possible rate cut in September. Recent US economic data shows resilience, US CPI has rebounded, and the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, with subsequent impacts likely to gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill further boosts expectations of US fiscal deficits, and the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold holdings. The long-term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - For Shanghai Gold 2510, the current price is 770.68, down 3.10 (-0.40%) from the previous close, with an open interest of 214,105 and trading volume of 206,379. For Shanghai Gold 2512, the current price is 772.76, down 3.00 (-0.39%), with an open interest of 115,693 and trading volume of 25,383. For Shanghai Silver 2510, the current price is 9,090.00, down 102.00 (-1.11%), with an open interest of 392,370 and trading volume of 689,866. For Shanghai Silver 2512, the current price is 9,110.00, down 103.00 (-1.12%), with an open interest of 210,377 and trading volume of 71,085 [2] Spot Market - The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold T+D was 769.48, up 2.29 (0.30%); the previous closing price of London Gold was 758.13, down 9.39 (-1.22%); the previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T+D was 9,166.00, up 3.00 (0.03%); the previous closing price of London Silver was 37.10, down 1.10 (-2.87%) [2] Inventory - The current value of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory is 33,462 kg, an increase of 2,199.00 kg from the previous value; the current value of the silver inventory is 1,208,094 kg, an increase of 3,228.00 kg. The current value of COMEX gold inventory is 38,514,461, an increase of 347,929.37; the current value of COMEX silver inventory is 504,338,309, an increase of 2,041,750 [2] Related Derivatives - The current value of the US dollar index is 99.9684, up 1.06% from the previous value; the S&P index is 6,362.9, down 0.12%; the US Treasury yield is 4.38, up 0.92%; Brent crude oil is 72.75, up 0.01%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate is 7.2123, up 0.44%. The current value of the SPDR Gold ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton; the SLV Silver ETF holdings is 44,315 tons, an increase of 1.00 ton. The net position of CFTC speculators in silver is 33,486, an increase of 481; the net position in gold is 32,895, a decrease of 1,451 [2] Macroeconomic News - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5% for the fifth consecutive time early today, in line with expectations. Powell said it's too early to say whether the Fed will cut rates in September as the financial market expects. Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported semi-finished copper products starting August 1. The US GDP annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 3%, significantly exceeding the expected 2.4%. The core PCE price index annualized quarterly growth rate in Q2 was 2.5%, down from 3.5% but higher than the expected 2.3%. The US ADP employment in July increased by 104,000, exceeding expectations but still far below last year's average [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The spot prices of linear LL and拉丝 PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The market showed a divergence this week after a rebound last week, and the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply and demand. Summer maintenance is in balance, and attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair. Recently, supply and demand tend to gradually digest the inventory accumulated in the second quarter [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -104, -98, and -121 yuan/ton and drops of -1.39%, -1.31%, and -1.62% respectively. The trading volumes were 114997, 1587, and 388896, and the open interests were 157846, 7336, and 346401, with changes of 5906, 528, and -20147 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and -65 respectively [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7136, 7137, and 7130 yuan/ton respectively, with declines of -100, -90, and -91 yuan/ton and drops of -1.38%, -1.25%, and -1.26% respectively. The trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, and the open interests were 165953, 9581, and 325802, with changes of -3873, -366, and -29838 respectively. The current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were -1, 7, and -6 respectively [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2435 yuan/ton, 6220 yuan/ton, 544 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6850 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Spot Market**: The current prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7600 yuan/ton respectively; the current prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton respectively [2] News - On Tuesday (July 29), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $69.21 per barrel, up $2.50 or 3.75% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $66.53 - $69.76. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $72.51 per barrel, up $2.47 or 3.53% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.86 - $73.08 [2]