Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo
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20251029申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251029
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:42
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices may be on the stronger side as the concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, and an Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Although zinc concentrate processing fees are rising and smelting profits are positive, with smelting output expected to increase, the overall supply - demand difference is not obvious. Also, due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices rose by over 1%. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand deficit [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices rose by 0.45%. Zinc concentrate processing fees are rising, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to increase. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous domestic futures closing price was 86,990 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum was 21,120 yuan/ton with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; zinc was 22,275 yuan/ton with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; nickel was 120,300 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,490 yuan/ton; lead was 17,375 yuan/ton with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; tin was 282,780 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,930 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: For copper, the LME 3 - month closing price was 11,030 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 19.54 dollars/ton and an inventory of 135,975 tons (a daily decrease of 375 tons); for aluminum, it was 2,894 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 2.61 dollars/ton and an inventory of 469,275 tons (a daily decrease of 3,850 tons); for zinc, it was 3,057 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 171.09 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,050 tons (a daily decrease of 550 tons); for nickel, it was 15,245 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 207.07 dollars/ton and an inventory of 251,238 tons (a daily increase of 384 tons); for lead, it was 2,025 dollars/ton with a spot premium of - 35.54 dollars/ton and an inventory of 232,375 tons (a daily decrease of 3,000 tons); for tin, it was 36,325 dollars/ton with a spot premium of 40.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,725 tons (a daily decrease of 25 tons) [2].
申银万国期货早间策略-20251029
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:42
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80 and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interest changes were - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 3051.20, 3051.60, 3053.00, and 3049.20 respectively, with decreases of - 17.00, - 16.20, - 16.00, and - 18.80 and decreases of - 0.55%, - 0.53%, - 0.52%, and - 0.61% respectively. The trading volumes were 10401.00, 34831.00, 4435.00, and 1454.00, and the open interest changes were - 808.00, - 1601.00, 52.00, and - 68.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7287.40, 7231.00, 7068.20, and 6886.60 respectively, with decreases of - 25.60, - 28.40, - 25.40, and - 20.20 and decreases of - 0.35%, - 0.39%, - 0.36%, and - 0.29% respectively. The trading volumes were 24174.00, 82049.00, 15658.00, and 4523.00, and the open interest changes were - 2679.00, - 6265.00, - 377.00, and - 112.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices for IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7410.00, 7335.60, 7122.60, and 6907.20 respectively, with increases of 2.60, 3.00, 4.20, and 3.00 and increases of 0.04%, 0.04%, 0.06%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volumes were 38819.00, 141946.00, 22315.00, and 8213.00, and the open interest changes were - 3501.00, - 1434.00, - 1256.00, and 1365.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of inter - month spreads for IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.60, 0.40, - 56.40, and - 74.40 respectively, compared to previous values of - 12.80, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **CSI 300 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4691.97, with a trading volume of 220.91 billion shares and a total trading value of 5715.63 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 4716.02, with a trading volume of 262.20 billion shares and a total trading value of 6726.70 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.51% [1] - **SSE 50 Index**: The previous value of the SSE 50 index was 3050.42, with a trading volume of 54.63 billion shares and a total trading value of 1487.20 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 3069.53, with a trading volume of 70.41 billion shares and a total trading value of 1852.95 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.62% [1] - **CSI 500 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 500 index was 7341.03, with a trading volume of 202.12 billion shares and a total trading value of 4220.69 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7379.39, with a trading volume of 232.05 billion shares and a total trading value of 4717.62 billion yuan. The decline was - 0.52% [1] - **CSI 1000 Index**: The previous value of the CSI 1000 index was 7479.22, with a trading volume of 251.80 billion shares and a total trading value of 4310.16 billion yuan. The previous two - day value was 7495.38, with a trading volume of 265.34 billion shares and a total trading value of 4581.70 billion yuan [1] - **Industry Performance**: The declines in energy, raw materials, industry, and optional consumption were - 0.86%, - 2.97%, - 0.31%, and - 0.06% respectively. For other industries like major consumption, medicine and health, real - estate finance, and information technology, the changes were 0.01%, - 1.61%, etc. [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis for CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 1000 futures contracts were provided, showing differences compared to the previous two - day values [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - Information on the previous values and changes of domestic indexes such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - Cap Board Index, and ChiNext Index, as well as overseas indexes like the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index were presented [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, with goals including economic growth in a reasonable range, increased total factor productivity, and higher resident consumption rates. It also proposed developing strategic emerging industries and key technology breakthroughs in certain fields. China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol. There are talks about a China - EU meeting on rare - earth issues. China is committed to opening up its financial sector [2] 6. Industry Information - The 11th batch of national drug procurement was successfully bid. The soybean area in China is expected to remain above 150 million mu for four consecutive years, and the number of breeding sows has decreased. A special campaign against live - streaming reward chaos was launched. The added value of the wholesale and retail industry increased by 5.6% in the first three quarters, and rural road construction progress and investment were reported [2] 7. Stock Index Views - U.S. stock indexes continued to rise, while the domestic stock index adjusted downward the previous day. The market turnover was 2.17 trillion yuan, and the margin trading balance increased. After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection stage. The market style may return to value in the fourth quarter [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251029
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:19
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins followed the crude oil trend and declined slightly today. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may start to fluctuate after a short - term rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market LL Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6985, 7062, and 7101 respectively, with price drops of - 39, - 28, and - 18, and percentage drops of - 0.56%, - 0.39%, and - 0.25% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 220120, 21981, and 485, and open interests were 519487, 66606, and 1369, with changes of - 4375, 114, and 214 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 39, and 116, compared to previous values of - 66, - 29, and 95 [2] PP Futures - The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6657, 6734, and 6737 respectively, with price drops of - 42, - 34, and - 33, and percentage drops of - 0.63%, - 0.50%, and - 0.49% compared to two days ago. Trading volumes were 228673, 27355, and 1137, and open interests were 611345, 134413, and 6839, with changes of 2998, 3576, and 98 respectively. The spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 77, - 3, and 80, compared to previous values of - 69, - 2, and 71 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market Raw Materials - The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2245 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 534 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton [2] Spot Market - For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous prices of 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] News - On Tuesday (October 28), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $60.15 per barrel, down $1.16 or 1.89% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.76 - $61.50. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.4 per barrel, down $1.22 or 1.86% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64 - $65.76 [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20251029
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-29 03:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core View - The market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, providing some support for Treasury bond futures prices, given the central bank's supportive monetary policy and the resumption of open - market Treasury bond trading operations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Treasury bond futures prices generally rose on the previous trading day, with the T2512 contract rising 0.16% and its trading volume increasing [2] - The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - Short - term market interest rates generally increased on the previous trading day, with SHIBOR 7 - day rate up 12.8bp, DR007 rate up 18.02bp, and GC007 rate up 5.4bp [2] - Yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed changes, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield down 0.9bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread at 29.13bp [2] Overseas Market - The 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.6bp on the previous trading day [2] Macroeconomic News - The central bank conducted 475.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 28, with a net investment of 315.8 billion yuan [3] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal was released, aiming at economic growth within a reasonable range, and promoting the development of strategic emerging industries [3] - The central bank governor said to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen financial supervision [3] - China and ASEAN signed the FTA 3.0 upgrade protocol, expanding cooperation in emerging fields [3] - The US Senate failed to pass the bill to end the government shutdown, and the government shutdown will continue [3] Industry Information - Most money market interest rates increased, and US Treasury bond yields showed mixed changes [3] Market Comment and Strategy - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield decreased to 1.813%. The central bank's net investment and the expected Fed rate cut are important factors affecting the market [3] - The domestic demand side represented by real estate is still weak, but the market liquidity is expected to support Treasury bond futures prices [3]
申万期货品种策略日报:国债-20251028
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:49
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View - The market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which will support the prices of treasury bond futures. Given the complex and severe external environment and the weak demand side represented by the real estate sector in China, the central bank governor has stated that a supportive monetary policy stance will be maintained, and open - market treasury bond trading operations will be resumed [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2512 contract rose 0.16%, and its position increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of various treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities [2]. - The position and trading volume data of different treasury bond futures contracts (TS2512, TS2603, TF2512, etc.) are presented, along with their price changes, position changes, and cross - period spreads [2]. Spot Market - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally increased. SHIBOR 7 - day rate rose 12.8bp, DR007 rate rose 18.02bp, and GC007 rate rose 5.4bp [2]. - Yields of China's key - term treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 0.9bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 29.13bp [2]. - In overseas markets, the 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield increased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield increased by 1.6bp [2]. Macro News - The central bank conducted 3373 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on October 27, with a net investment of 1483 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount [3]. - At the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference, central bank governor Pan Gongsheng, Financial Regulatory Administration director Li Yunze, and CSRC chairman Wu Qing made important statements regarding monetary policy, financial service models, and capital market reforms [3]. - Premier Li Qiang attended the fifth RCEP leaders' meeting, emphasizing the need for RCEP parties to collaborate and support the accession of applicants such as Hong Kong, China [3]. - In September, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year, accelerating from August. From January to September, the profit growth of these enterprises continued to recover [3]. - By the end of September 2025, the number of national financing platforms and the scale of outstanding operating financial debts decreased by 71% and 62% respectively compared to March 2023. As of now, over 5 trillion yuan of government bonds have been issued to replace hidden debts [3]. Industry Information - Most money market interest rates increased. For example, the 1 - day and 7 - day weighted average interest rates of inter - bank pledged repurchase and inter - bank lending all rose [3]. - US treasury bond yields collectively declined. For instance, the 2 - year yield fell 0.64bp, and the 10 - year yield fell 3.46bp [3]. - The 10 - year treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.8355%. The central bank conducted 9000 billion yuan of MLF operations, with a net investment of 2000 billion yuan for the month, but the Shibor short - end varieties mostly increased, and the capital market tightened [3].
20251028申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251028
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow rapidly. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue rising. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall supply - demand differences are not significant [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - Market performance: Copper prices closed slightly lower at night. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output has high growth. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. An Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a supply - demand deficit in the global copper market [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Zinc prices closed slightly higher at night. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate sector remains weak. Domestic and foreign inventory situations are different, with domestic zinc prices potentially weaker than foreign ones [2]. - Strategy: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data - **Domestic Futures and Basis**: Copper's previous closing price was 88,390 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; aluminum's was 21,305 yuan/ton with a basis of - 60 yuan/ton; zinc's was 22,310 yuan/ton with a basis of - 105 yuan/ton; nickel's was 122,060 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton; lead's was 17,525 yuan/ton with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; tin's was 286,150 yuan/ton with a basis of - 1,540 yuan/ton [2]. - **LME Data**: Copper's LME 3 - month forward closing price is not provided, with a spot premium of - 23.84 dollars/ton and an inventory of 136,350 tons (a daily decrease of 575 tons); aluminum had a spot premium of 3.28 dollars/ton and an inventory of 473,125 tons (a daily decrease of 4,550 tons); zinc had a spot premium of 212.89 dollars/ton and an inventory of 37,600 tons (a daily increase of 2,900 tons); nickel had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 15,335 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 205.18 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 250,854 tons (no daily change); lead had an LME 3 - month forward closing price of 2,024 dollars/ton, a spot premium of - 33.80 dollars/ton, and an inventory of 235,375 tons (a daily decrease of 4,375 tons); tin had a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton and an inventory of 2,750 tons (a daily increase of 30 tons) [2].
申银万国期货早间策略-20251028
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a phase of direction selection again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's interest rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme of the current upward market trend, considering the possible intensification of Q4 growth - stabilization policies and the potential resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80, and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48% respectively. The trading volumes were 24392.00, 74172.00, 14177.00, and 3440.00, and the open interests were 40441.00, 153415.00, 55843.00, and 5714.00 respectively, with changes of - 2317.00, - 6793.00, - 1216.00, and 1074.00 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts were 3067.40, 3066.80, 3069.20, and 3067.40 respectively, with increases of 23.40, 22.40, 23.60, and 24.40, and increases of 0.77%, 0.74%, 0.77%, and 0.80% respectively. The trading volumes were 11960.00, 37476.00, 5043.00, and 1819.00, and the open interests were 15335.00, 65887.00, 14472.00, and 2468.00 respectively, with changes of 218.00, 1268.00, 850.00, and 497.00 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts were 7310.40, 7254.40, 7083.00, and 6903.40 respectively, with increases of 125.00, 125.20, 121.20, and 126.40, and increases of 1.74%, 1.76%, 1.74%, and 1.87% respectively. The trading volumes were 27275.00, 87202.00, 16929.00, and 5288.00, and the open interests were 49174.00, 140233.00, 51880.00, and 11298.00 respectively, with changes of 1344.00, 5789.00, 409.00, and 1439.00 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts were 7399.40, 7322.60, 7105.20, and 6891.60 respectively, with increases of 55.80, 54.80, 54.80, and 58.60, and increases of 0.76%, 0.75%, 0.78%, and 0.86% respectively. The trading volumes were 45173.00, 137585.00, 23471.00, and 8513.00, and the open interests were 72266.00, 187588.00, 78846.00, and 20144.00 respectively, with changes of 2184.00, 4103.00, 2254.00, and 1214.00 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month were - 13.60, - 0.60, - 56.00, and - 76.80 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12.80, 0.20, - 52.00, and - 71.20 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4716.02, 3045.82, 7258.53, and 7495.38 respectively, with increases of 1.19%, 0.62%, 1.62%, and 1.03% respectively. The trading volumes (in billions of shares) were 6726.70, 1554.40, 3660.62, and 4581.70 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the raw materials, telecommunications services, and information technology industries had relatively high increases of 2.24%, 3.72%, and 2.63% respectively, while the major consumer industry had a slight decline of - 0.03% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 12.28, - 25.88, - 56.68, and - 93.28 respectively; those of IH current month - SSE 50, IH next month - SSE 50, IH next quarter - SSE 50, and IH far - quarter - SSE 50 were 2.58, 2.78, 4.18, and 5.98 respectively; those of IC current month - CSI 500, IC next month - CSI 500, IC next quarter - CSI 500, and IC far - quarter - CSI 500 were - 68.99, - 124.99, - 296.39, and - 475.99 respectively; and those of IM current month - CSI 1000, IM next month - CSI 1000, IM next quarter - CSI 1000, and IM far - quarter - CSI 1000 were - 95.98, - 172.78, - 390.18, and - 603.78 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3996.94, 13489.40, 8272.63, and 3234.45 respectively, with increases of 1.18%, 1.51%, 1.63%, and 1.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 26433.70, 49299.65, 6875.16, and 24308.78 respectively, with increases of 1.05%, 1.35%, 1.23%, and 0.28% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - Diplomatic Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, expressing the hope that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for bilateral relations. Spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China and the US were in close communication regarding the possible meeting of the two heads of state [2] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference opened. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the central bank would maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, resume open - market treasury bond trading, and take other measures. Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze said that a financial service model emphasizing both investment in things and people would be constructed. CSRC Chairman Wu Qing said that reforms of the ChiNext would be deepened [2] - Premier Li Qiang attended the 5th RCEP Leaders' Meeting, calling on all parties to collaborate more closely to address challenges and support the accession of applicants such as Hong Kong, China. Vice - Premier He Lifeng emphasized that the financial system should prevent risks, strengthen supervision, and promote high - quality development and opening - up [2] 6. Industry Information - Domestic gasoline and diesel prices were lowered on October 27th. The prices per ton were reduced by 265 yuan and 255 yuan respectively [2] - Relevant authorities were considering a new document to standardize the naming of "semi - solid - state batteries" as "solid - liquid batteries" [2] - Shandong Province issued the first provincial - level special plan for low - altitude information infrastructure, aiming to build a low - altitude communication network infrastructure in ten years [2] - The Bank of Korea stated that stablecoins should be issued by traditional banks under national supervision, and the South Korean government was considering launching a won - linked stablecoin [2]
申万期货品种策略日报:油脂油料-20251028
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The protein meal market: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal showed a strong and volatile trend. The latest export inspection report indicated that the U.S. soybean export inspection volume in the week ending October 16, 2025, was higher than the market - expected range, up 45% from the previous week. Brazil's new - season soybean sowing is progressing orderly. The domestic soybean meal futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term due to poor domestic crushing margins and subdued buying enthusiasm [2]. - The oil market: The night - session of oils showed a weak trend. The MPOA estimated a 10.77% increase in Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, and AmSpec data showed a 2.5% month - on - month increase in palm oil exports during the same period. The expected reduction in palm oil production has not materialized, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in October has strengthened. The supply - side expectation of loosening is suppressing the short - term oil market [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts were 8234, 9100, 9748, 2932, 2400, and 8844 respectively. The price changes were 40, - 22, - 13, - 1, - 40, and 26, with corresponding percentage changes of 0.49%, - 0.24%, - 3.15%, - 0.03%, - 1.64%, and 0.29% [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The current spreads and ratios of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values, such as the Y9 - 1 spread of soybean oil changing from - 288 to - 290 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT soybean oil, and CBOT soybean meal were 4381 (ringgit/ton), 1084 (cents/bu), 51 (cents/lb), and 298 (dollars/ton) respectively. The price changes were - 20, 42, 0, and 4, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.45%, 4.01%, 0.76%, and 1.29% [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current spot prices of various oils and meals in different regions have different percentage changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil increased by 0.47%, while the spot price of Dongguan soybean meal decreased by 0.67% [1]. - **Basis**: The current spot basis of various varieties also shows different values, such as the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil being 236 [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of various varieties have changed compared to the previous values. For example, the import and crushing profit of near - month Malaysian palm oil has changed from - 528 to - 417 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts are 27144, 600, 7540, 42382, 4050, and 0 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate reached 36% of the expected level, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in 2025/26 in the central - southern region reached 55% of the planned area [2]. - As of the week ending October 23, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1061375 tons, down from the previous week [2].
申银万国期货首席点评:央行重启公开市场国债买卖操作
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Report Core Viewpoints - The central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, and the prices of precious metals, crude oil, and stock index futures show different trends affected by various factors such as geopolitics, economic data, and policies [1] - Precious metals have experienced a continuous decline after a rapid rise due to the weakening of driving factors, while the long - term trend of gold as a safe - haven asset remains [2] - Crude oil prices are under a downward trend despite geopolitical tensions, and the situation is still unclear [3] - Stock index futures are in a direction - selection stage, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [4] Summary by Relevant Parts 1.当日主要新闻关注 International News - Mexican President Sinbaum said that US President Trump agreed to extend the deadline for the agreement on trade, security, and immigration issues between the two countries, and Trump will not impose additional tariffs [6] Domestic News - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi talked with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work together to prepare for high - level interactions and create conditions for bilateral relations. The Chinese Foreign Ministry also responded to multiple hot issues such as a possible meeting between the two heads of state [7] Industry News - In September, the profits of China's industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points compared with August, with the profits of high - tech and equipment manufacturing industries growing rapidly [8] 2.外盘每日收益情况 - The US S&P 500 index decreased by 0.79%, the German DAX index decreased by 0.13%, the UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.70%, and the FTSE A50 futures bond decreased by 1.33% from October 24th to October 27th. The US dollar index decreased by 0.15%, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond futures decreased by 0.20%. ICE Brent crude oil decreased by 1.58%, London gold decreased by 0.25%, and London silver decreased by 0.44%. LME aluminum decreased by 0.30%, LME copper increased by 1.20%, LME zinc decreased by 0.10%, and LME nickel decreased by 0.07%. ICE No. 11 sugar decreased by 1.77%, ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 0.25%, CBOT soybeans decreased by 0.07%, CBOT soybean meal increased by 0.65%, CBOT soybean oil decreased by 1.12%, and CBOT wheat remained unchanged [10] 3.主要品种早盘评论 Financial - Stock index futures continued to rise after the Sino - US tariff negotiation released positive news. After the high - level shock in September, they are in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [4][11] - Treasury bond futures rose slightly. The central bank carried out large - scale MLF operations, but the short - term Shibor increased. With the easing of risk - aversion sentiment and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the market liquidity is expected to remain reasonable and abundant, which supports the price of treasury bond futures [12][13] Energy and Chemical - SC crude oil futures decreased by 0.75% at night. The US and the EU imposed sanctions on Russian oil companies, but the downward trend of crude oil prices is difficult to change [3][14] - Methanol futures decreased by 0.53% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased slightly. The market is volatile due to various uncertainties [15] - Rubber supply may face pressure as the tapping season progresses, and the demand support is limited. The short - term trend is expected to be strong due to the expected smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations [16] - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. The spot prices were stable. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, and the high demand from downstream industries, the market may fluctuate and rebound in the short term [17] - Glass futures were in a low - level consolidation, and soda ash futures rebounded slightly. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and the market is cautious. Attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [18] Metal - Precious metals continued to decline. Geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the driving factors have weakened. However, the long - term trend of gold as a safe - haven asset remains [2][19] - Copper prices decreased slightly at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the smelting profit is at the break - even point, but the smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [20] - Zinc prices increased slightly at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee has increased, and the smelting output is expected to rise. The domestic zinc price may be weaker than the foreign one, and the market may fluctuate within a range [21] Black - Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The output of five major steel products increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The high iron - water output provides support for coking coal and coke, but the possible reduction of blast - furnace production due to shrinking profits is a risk. The short - term trend is expected to be a high - level shock [22] Agricultural Products - Protein meal futures fluctuated strongly at night. The US soybean export inspection volume was higher than expected, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress was good. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23] - Oil futures were weak at night. The palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to increase in October, and the supply - side expectation is loose, which suppresses the short - term market [24] - International sugar prices are in a downward trend due to the increase in Brazilian sugar supply. The domestic sugar price may be supported by the cost of the new crushing season, and there is a possibility of an upward trend in the short term [25] - Cotton futures continued to be strong in a volatile manner. The US cotton market is in a short - term shock due to the government shutdown. The domestic new cotton purchase is in the peak season, and the price supports the market in the short term [26] Shipping Index - The container shipping index for European routes (EC) declined. The SCFIS European route index rebounded for the second consecutive period. The market is still gambling on the year - end peak season, and the shipping companies are relatively positive in price - holding at the end of the year, but the market operation is not smooth [27][28]
申万期货品种策略日报:聚烯烃(LL、PP)-20251028
Shen Yin Wan Guo Qi Huo· 2025-10-28 02:43
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and polyolefins have followed the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillating rebound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7024, 7090, and 7119 respectively, up 55, 69, and 69 from the day before, with increases of 0.79%, 0.98%, and 0.98%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6768, and 6770 respectively, up 37, 49, and 42, with increases of 0.56%, 0.73%, and 0.62% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 241446, 30216, and 144 respectively. For PP, they were 262100, 37290, and 1332 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 523862, 66492, and 1155 respectively, with changes of - 5325, 3904, and 19. For PP, they were 608347, 130837, and 6741, with changes of 247, 3976, and 600 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 29, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 29, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 69, - 2, and 71, compared to previous values of - 57, - 9, and 66 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [2]