2025年07月31日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.336 | 102.384 | 105.630 | 105.675 | 108.300 | 108.210 | 118.36 | 117.96 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.302 | 102.364 | 105.545 | 105.610 | 108.130 | 108.115 | 117.87 | 117.49 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.085 | 0.065 | 0.170 | 0.095 | 0.490 | 0.4 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International oil prices have risen for three consecutive days. The rebound in US economic growth in Q2 exceeded expectations, but economists believe this measure overstates the economic health as the decline in imports is the main reason for the improvement in economic data, and the growth rate of domestic demand in the US is the slowest in two and a half years [3]. - Methanol prices fell 0.9% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly but increased compared to the same period last year. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise, and methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: SC near - month contract decreased by 0.24% to 529.7, SC next - month contract increased by 2.64% to 528.6; WTI near - month contract increased by 3.39% to 69.25, WTI next - month contract increased by 3.25% to 68.32; Brent near - month contract increased by 0.98% to 73.47, Brent next - month contract increased by 1.37% to 72.75 [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes were 28, 136,660, 306,435, 174,121, 136,654, 467,877 respectively; open interests were 746, 37,676, 351,819, 243,122, 191,811, 551,927 respectively. Open interest changes were 0, - 996, - 7352, 1993, - 35473, 5974 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: The current spreads of SC near - month - SC next - month, SC next - month - SC next - to - next - month, SC near - month - WTI near - month, SC near - month - Brent near - month, WTI near - month - WTI next - month, Brent near - month - Brent next - month were 1.1, 528.6, 30.6, 0.2, 6.68, 0.72 respectively, different from the previous values [2]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The 01, 05, and 09 contracts decreased by 0.40%, 0.33%, and 0.62% respectively to 2510, 2447, 2419. The spreads of 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 changed to 63, 28, - 91 respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes were 141,975, 4,445, 623,870 respectively; open interests were 278,074, 13,180, 579,345 respectively. Open interest changes were - 828, 1864, 3317 respectively [2]. Spot Market Methanol - **Price Changes**: The port price in US dollars was 0 (down 276), the prices in East China, North China, and South China were 2435 (down 5), 2180 (unchanged), 2410 (up 5) respectively [2]. Crude Oil - **International Market**: The prices of OPEC basket crude oil, Brent DTD, Russian ESPD, Oman, Dubai, and Cinta were 72.61, 71.57, 69.21, 73.02, 72.51, 67.72 respectively, all higher than the previous values [2]. - **Domestic Market**: The prices of Daqing and Shengli crude oil were 66.29 and 68.33 respectively, up from the previous values. The Chinese gasoline wholesale price index, Chinese diesel wholesale price index, FOB naphtha (Singapore), and ex - factory price of jet kerosene were 8,060, 6,969, 63.06, 5,676 respectively, also higher than before [2]. Comments and Strategies Crude Oil - US economic growth data in Q2 was better than expected, but domestic demand growth was slow. As of July 25, US crude oil inventories increased, gasoline inventories decreased, and distillate inventories increased. Future attention should be paid to OPEC's production increase [3]. Methanol - The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) - to - olefins plants increased slightly, and the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants decreased slightly but increased compared to last year. Coastal methanol inventories continued to rise. The estimated arrival volume of imported methanol from July 25 to August 10 is 69.88 - 700,000 tons. Methanol is expected to be bullish in the short term [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - In the protein meal market, US soybean is growing well with a higher - than - expected good rate, leading to a continuous decline in US soybean futures prices. Concerns about domestic soybean supply in the fourth quarter and the strengthening of rapeseed meal prices support domestic protein meal prices [3]. - In the oil market, Malaysian palm oil production increased in July 2025, but export volume decreased. The consensus between China and the US on tariff issues has boosted the overall strength of the oil sector [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil futures were 8240, 8982, and 9621 respectively. Their price changes were 14, 12, and 129, with price change rates of 0.17%, 0.13%, and - 3.15% respectively. For protein meals, the closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal were 3010 and 2730, with price changes of 27 and 75 and price change rates of 0.91% and 2.82% respectively. The closing price of peanuts was 8844, with a price change of 26 and a price change rate of 0.29% [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For example, the current value of Y9 - 1 spread is 52 (previous value: 38), P9 - 1 is - 4 (previous value: 2), and so on. The current M/RM09 ratio is 1.10 (previous value: 1.12) [2]. International Futures Market - **Futures Prices**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4244 (Ringgit/ton), 996 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 274 (dollars/ton) respectively. Their price changes were 14, - 12, - 1, and - 2, with price change rates of 0.33%, - 1.21%, - 1.09%, and - 0.72% respectively [2]. Domestic Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of various oils and meals have different changes. For example, the spot price of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 8410, with a price change rate of 0.72%, and the spot price of Nantong soybean meal is 2890, with a price change rate of 0.70% [2]. - **Spot Basis**: Spot basis values vary, such as 170 for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil and - 120 for Nantong soybean meal [2]. - **Spot Spreads**: The current value of the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 670 (same as the previous value), and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil is 1350 (previous value: 1310) [2]. Import and Crush Profit - The current import and crush profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, etc. are - 355, - 197, etc. respectively, showing different trends compared to the previous values [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 13,709, 0, and 3,487 respectively, with some changes compared to the previous values [2]. Industry Information - According to the Ministry of Commerce, China and the US have formed Geneva Consensus and London Framework in the economic and trade field, and their teams have held economic and trade talks in Stockholm [3]. - Brazil's National Supply Company predicts that the grain output in the 2024 - 2025 agricultural cycle will reach 3.396 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. From January to June this year, Brazil exported soybeans worth 1.9 billion dollars to China, accounting for 74.6% of the total soybean export value [3].

| 摘要 | 铜： 可能短期区间波动 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收低，受美盘铜大幅回落影响。美国仅对铜材加征50%关税，但 精炼铜豁免，出乎市场预期。目前精矿加工费总体低位，考验冶炼产量。根 | | | | 据国家统计局数据来看，国内下游需求总体稳定向好，电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期区 | | 铜 | 长；汽车产销正增长；家电产量增速趋缓；地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织， | 间波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展，以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看，国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长，基建稳定增长，家电产量增速趋缓，地产持续疲弱。今 | 可能短期宽 | | | 年精矿供应明显改善，冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波动，关注美 | 幅波动 | | | 国关税进展，以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产量等因素变化。 | | | | 分析师：李野 | | | | 从业资格号：F0285 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Protein meal: Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The U.S. soybean good-to-excellent rate decreased, and the weather forecast indicated potential high - temperature stress in the southwest, supporting the U.S. soybean futures price. The export outlook of U.S. soybeans improved, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In China, the emphasis on soybean meal reduction and the loose supply pattern led to a decline in the Dalian Commodity Exchange meal futures price. However, due to trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in the fourth quarter, limiting the further decline of soybean meal prices [2]. - Oils: Night trading of oils was weak. Indonesia's latest fundamental data is favorable, and the expected increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in the second half of 2025 will boost palm oil export demand and support its price. With the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: For domestic futures, the closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil decreased, with declines of - 0.27%, - 1.85%, and - 3.15% respectively. The closing prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, while the peanut closing price increased by 0.29%. There were changes in spreads and price - to - spreads compared to the previous values [1]. - **International Futures**: In the international futures market, the BMD palm oil price increased by 0.33%, while the CBOT soybean, CBOT U.S. soybean oil, and CBOT U.S. soybean meal prices decreased by - 0.32%, - 0.71%, and - 0.53% respectively [1]. Spot Market - **Prices and Basis**: Domestic spot prices of soybean oil in Tianjin and Guangzhou increased slightly, while the 24° palm oil price in Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou decreased. The prices of soybean meal in Nantong and rapeseed meal in Nantong increased, while the price of soybean meal in Dongguan decreased. There were corresponding changes in spot basis [1]. - **Spreads**: The spot spreads between different varieties, such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil, showed certain changes [1]. Import and Crushing Profit - Import and crushing profits of different oilseeds and oils, including Malaysian palm oil, U.S. Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, U.S. West soybeans, Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and Canadian rapeseeds, changed compared to the previous values [1]. Industry Information - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 decreased compared to the same period last month, with a 15.22% decrease according to Amspec and a 9.2% decrease according to ITS [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The A - share market has high investment value in the medium - long term. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science - innovation policy support, while the SSE 50 and SHS 300 have defensive value in the current macro - environment [2][12] - The market for crude oil is affected by factors such as trade agreements and OPEC's production decisions. The organization may fully restore the additional voluntary supply cut of 2.2 million barrels per day by the end of September [4][14] - The prices of various commodities are influenced by multiple factors including supply - demand relationships, policies, and international trade situations. For example, the prices of glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion, and their market performance is related to the "anti - involution" policy and fundamental repair [17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日主要新闻关注 3.1.1 International News - The German government will approve the 2026 budget draft on Wednesday, including a record 126.7 billion euros in investment for infrastructure and defense [6] 3.1.2 Domestic News - The Party Group of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasized promoting the urbanization of agricultural transfer population, protecting their land rights, and promoting urban - rural integration development with the county as the focus [7] 3.1.3 Industry News - The Guangdong Paper Industry Association issued an "anti - involution" initiative, opposing low - price disorderly competition and dumping below cost [8] 3.2外盘每日收益情况 - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas financial products on July 25 and July 28, such as the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and ICE Brent crude oil [9] 3.3主要品种早盘评论 3.3.1 Financial - **Stock Index**: The A - share market had a volatile rebound. The defense and military industry sector led the rise, and the coal sector adjusted. The trading volume reached 1.77 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - long - term funds in the capital market is expected to increase, which is conducive to reducing market volatility [2][11] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds rebounded significantly. The yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond fell to 1.715%. The central bank increased open - market operations, and the tightness of the capital market eased. Due to policy expectations and market sentiment, the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices will increase [13] 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 2.06% at night. The US and the EU reached a new trade agreement. OPEC and its allies will hold a meeting on August 3 to decide the production level in September [4][14] - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 1.23% at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased slightly, while the overall operating load of methanol plants decreased slightly. Coastal methanol inventory continued to rise, and it is expected to be bullish in the short term [15] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways at night. The spot market was stable. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" policy and the supply - demand relationship [16] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures hit the daily limit down. They are in the process of inventory digestion. The market sentiment was affected by policy expectations and fundamental repair [17] - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices fell on Monday. Supply - side factors supported the price, while the demand side was weak. The inventory in Qingdao continued to increase, and the short - term trend is expected to continue to decline [18] 3.3.3 Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices weakened continuously, and silver also corrected. The strengthening of the US dollar index and the reduction of risk - aversion sentiment led to the decline. The long - term driving force for gold still exists, but the prices may fluctuate [19] - **Copper**: Copper prices rose at night. The low processing fees of concentrates and low copper prices test smelting production. The downstream demand is generally stable, and copper prices may fluctuate within a range [20] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose at night. The processing fees of concentrates continued to rise. The market expects an improvement in supply, and zinc prices may fluctuate widely [21] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices rose significantly due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi and then fell sharply. The production increased slightly, and the inventory continued to rise. The short - term core contradiction lies in warehouse receipts, and the medium - term upside is limited [22] 3.3.4 Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore is supported by the profit - driven production of steel mills. The global iron ore shipment has decreased recently, and the port inventory is decreasing rapidly. The supply - demand imbalance pressure is large in the medium term, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [24] - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, but the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. The export of billets is strong. The market is affected by macro - expectations and raw material sentiment, and the price is expected to be bullish with fluctuations [25] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The daily hot metal output decreased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills increased slightly. The inventory of coking coal in steel mills and coking plants increased, while the inventory of coking coal in mines decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range after the correction [3][26] 3.3.5 Agricultural Products - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The night - session of soybean and rapeseed meal traded weakly. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was lower than expected, and the export prospects are uncertain. The price of soybean meal is expected to have limited downside [27] - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats closed up at night. The fundamental data of Indonesia is positive, and the export of palm oil to the EU is expected to increase. The production and export data of Malaysian palm oil are negative in the short term, but the price is expected to rise slowly in the long term [28] 3.3.6 Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fluctuated, and the 10 - contract closed down 1.84%. The SCFIS European line index decreased, and the spot freight rate is showing signs of decline. The market is waiting to see the extent and slope of the freight rate correction [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For protein meals, night - session soybean and rapeseed meals showed weak and volatile trends. The overall growth of US soybeans is good, but trade uncertainties make the export outlook of US soybeans worrying, causing the futures price of US soybeans to decline. Considering trade tariff uncertainties, the global soybean - related prices are expected to rise in Q4, and the room for further decline in soybean meal prices is limited [2]. - For oils, night - session oils closed up with volatility. The latest fundamental data from Indonesia is positive, and the head of the Economic and Fiscal Policy Strategy Bureau of the Indonesian Ministry of Finance expects an increase in palm oil product exports to the EU in H2 2025, which will boost palm oil export demand and support palm oil prices. In Malaysia, the latest production and export data are negative in the short - term, but with the support of biodiesel policies in various countries, the medium - and long - term price center of oils is expected to slowly move up [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Domestic Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of domestic futures for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil were 8120, 8946, and 9406 respectively, with changes of - 24, 10, and - 51 and percentage changes of - 0.29%, 0.11%, and - 3.15% respectively. For soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanuts, the previous day's closing prices were 2990, 2647, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 31, - 23, and 26 and percentage changes of - 1.03%, - 0.86%, and 0.29% respectively [1]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: For spreads like Y9 - 1, P9 - 1, and OI9 - 1, the current values are 44, 14, and 49 respectively, compared with previous values of 40, 8, and 56. For ratios - spreads such as M9 - 1, RM9 - 1, and M - RM09, the current values are - 51, 267, and 330 respectively, compared with previous values of - 38, 270, and 346 [1]. International Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of international futures for BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4258 (ringgit/ton), 1012 (cents/bu), 56 (cents/lb), and 279 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of 14, - 10, 0, and - 2 and percentage changes of 0.33%, - 1.00%, 0.09%, and - 0.82% respectively [1]. Domestic Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of domestic spot products such as Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil are 8260, 8310, and 9070 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.36%, - 0.36%, and - 0.33%. For spot products like Nantong soybean meal, Dongguan soybean meal, and Nantong rapeseed meal, the current prices are 2870, 2890, and 2560 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.00%, 0.70%, and - 0.78% [1]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The current spot basis values for Tianjin first - grade soybean oil, Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil, and Zhangjiagang 24° palm oil are 140, 190, and 124 respectively. The current spot spreads such as the spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil, and the spread between Zhangjiagang third - grade rapeseed oil and first - grade soybean oil are - 670 and 1350 respectively [1]. Import and Crushing Profits - The current import and crushing profits for near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, and near - month Brazilian soybeans are - 437, - 271, and - 165 respectively, compared with previous values of - 526, - 249, and - 76 [1]. Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipt values for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 21,495, 0, and 3,487 respectively, remaining the same as the previous values [1]. Industry Information - As of the week ending July 24, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 409,714 tons, compared with 377,020 tons (revised) in the previous week [2]. - As of the week ending July 27, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, higher than the market expectation of 67%, and the good - to - excellent rate of US corn was 73%, in line with market expectations [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - With recent progress in trade negotiations, the US dollar index has strengthened, leading to a continuous decline in gold prices. Amid the overall rise and fall of commodities, silver has also corrected. Before the new tariff deadline, there has been a peak in negotiations. After the US reached a trade agreement with Japan and a 15% tariff agreement with the EU (lower than previous expectations), risk aversion has cooled. Trump has been pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates, but the expectation of a July rate cut remains low, and the market is focusing on whether there will be a rate cut in September. The rebound of US CPI has further cooled the short - term rate cut expectation, and the market is watching this week's non - farm payrolls performance. Although US economic data shows that the impact of tariff policies is smaller than feared, the subsequent impact may gradually increase. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill continues to boost the expectation of the US fiscal deficit, and the People's Bank of China has been continuously increasing its gold holdings. The long - term drivers for gold still provide support, but the high price makes upward movement hesitant. Overall, gold and silver are likely to continue to show a volatile performance [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The current prices of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 770.68 and 772.84 respectively, with price drops of - 4.10 and - 4.16, and declines of - 0.53% and - 0.54%. The current prices of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 9201.00 and 9218.00 respectively, with price drops of - 11.00 and - 16.00, and declines of - 0.12% and - 0.17%. [2] - **Positions and Volumes**: The positions of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 209675 and 112653 respectively, and the trading volumes are 256019 and 31873 respectively. The positions of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are 398421 and 210928 respectively, and the trading volumes are 1203307 and 160014 respectively. [2] - **Spot Premiums**: The spot premiums of沪金2510 and沪金2512 are 0.90 and - 1.26 respectively, and those of沪银2510 and沪银2512 are - 15.00 and - 32.00 respectively. [2] Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous closing prices of Shanghai Gold T + D and London Gold were 771.58 and 764.91 respectively, with price drops of - 2.03 and - 3.94, and declines of - 0.26% and - 0.51%. The previous closing price of London Gold (in dollars per ounce) was 3314.18, with a price drop of - 22.04 and a decline of - 0.66%. The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver T + D was 9186.00, with a price drop of - 186.00 and a decline of - 1.98%. The previous closing price of London Silver (in dollars per ounce) was 38.15, with a price increase of 0.02 and an increase of 0.04%. [2] - **Differences and Ratios**: The current values of沪金2512 - 沪金2510 and沪银2512 - 沪银2510 are 2.16 and 17 respectively. The spot gold - to - silver ratio is 84.00. The ratios of Shanghai Gold to London Gold and Shanghai Silver to London Silver are 7.24 and 7.49 respectively. [2] Inventory - **Changes**: The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold and COMEX gold remain unchanged at 30,258 kilograms and 38,034,038 respectively. The inventories of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver and COMEX silver have increased by 21,015.00 kilograms and 1375881 respectively. [2] Related Variables - **Index and Yield Changes**: The current values of the US dollar index, Standard & Poor's Index, US Treasury yield, Brent crude oil, and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate are 98.6694, 6389.77, 4.42, 69.6, and 7.1835 respectively, with increases of 1.02%, 0.02%, 0.45%, 0.01%, and 0.21% respectively compared to the previous values. [2] Derivatives - **Position Changes**: The positions of spdr gold ETF and SLV silver ETF have increased by 1.00 tons. The net positions of CFTC speculators in silver have increased by 481, while those in gold have decreased by 1451. [2] Market News - **Trade Negotiations**: On July 28 local time, the economic and trade teams of China and the US held economic and trade talks in Stockholm, Sweden, aiming to translate the important consensus of the two heads of state into specific policies and actions, implement the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks and the London framework, and promote the healthy development of China - US economic and trade relations. [3] - **Trump's Statements**: Trump may impose a unified tariff of 15% - 20% on imported goods from countries that have not negotiated separate trade agreements with the US. He is also disappointed with Putin and is shortening the 50 - day deadline for Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement. If no agreement is reached, the US will implement "secondary sanctions". [3] - **US Treasury Borrowing**: The US Treasury has significantly raised its estimate of federal borrowing for this quarter to $1 trillion, mainly due to the impact of the debt ceiling. It now expects the net borrowing from July to September to be $1.01 trillion, up from the April forecast of $554 billion. [3] - **European Central Bank**: European Central Bank hawkish official Kazimir said that the ECB is not in a hurry to lower borrowing costs again. Unless there is a major unexpected economic turn, the reason for action in September is not sufficient. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors such as stable domestic downstream demand, positive growth in the power and automotive industries, slowing growth in home appliance production, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, copper smelting, and home appliance production [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range short - term fluctuations. With the continuous recovery of concentrate processing fees and the expected improvement in concentrate supply and possible recovery of smelting supply this year, combined with positive growth in domestic auto production and sales, stable growth in infrastructure, slowing growth in home appliance production, and weak real estate. Attention should be paid to US tariff progress, and changes in the US dollar, zinc smelting, and home appliance production [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Night - time copper prices closed higher. Current low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices test smelting output. Domestic downstream demand is generally stable and positive, with the power industry continuing positive growth, auto production and sales showing positive growth, home appliance output growth slowing, and real estate remaining weak. Copper prices may fluctuate within a range [2]. - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,000 yuan/ton; domestic basis: 80 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 9,763 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 54.34 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 128,475 tons; LME inventory daily change: 3,700 tons [2]. Zinc - Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Recent concentrate processing fees have been continuously rising. Domestic auto production and sales are growing positively, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and real estate is weak. The market expects a significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and a possible recovery in smelting supply. Zinc prices may have wide - range short - term fluctuations [2]. - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 22,615 yuan/ton; domestic basis: - 15 yuan/ton; previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price: 2,806 dollars/ton; LME spot premium/discount: - 1.95 dollars/ton; LME inventory: 115,775 tons; LME inventory daily change: - 1,125 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 20,645 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 10 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,631 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 0.58 dollars/ton, LME inventory 450,825 tons, LME inventory daily change 2,725 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 121,500 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 1,220 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 15,230 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 208.46 dollars/ton, LME inventory 203,922 tons, LME inventory daily change - 534 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 16,880 yuan/ton, domestic basis - 160 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 2,018 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 27.31 dollars/ton, LME inventory 266,275 tons, LME inventory daily change - 3,050 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price 267,700 yuan/ton, domestic basis 3,730 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price 33,670 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount - 20.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 1,740 tons, LME inventory daily change 50 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures declined and traded sideways overnight. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for both Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, due to the clearer macro - situation of anti - involution in China, the market rebounded last week. However, the spot market of polyolefins is still mainly driven by supply - demand factors, with summer maintenance in balance. Attention should be paid to the process of fundamental repair [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7400, 7395, and 7335 respectively, down 104, 98, and 121 from two days ago, with declines of - 1.39%, - 1.31%, and - 1.62%. For PP, the corresponding closing prices were 7136, 7137, and 7130, down 100, 90, and 91, with declines of - 1.38%, - 1.25%, and - 1.26% [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: LL's trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 114997, 1587, and 388896, with open interests of 157846, 7336, and 346401, and open interest changes of 5906, 528, and - 20147. PP's trading volumes were 120821, 2000, and 344922, with open interests of 165953, 9581, and 325802, and open interest changes of - 3873, - 366, and - 29838 [2] - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were 5, 60, and - 65, compared to previous values of 11, 37, and - 48. For PP, the current spreads were - 1, 7, and - 6, compared to previous values of 9, 6, and - 15 [2] Raw Material and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2406 yuan/ton, 6195 yuan/ton, 539 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2519 yuan/ton, 6240 yuan/ton, 547 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6930 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: The current price ranges of LL in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7250 - 7650, 7200 - 7450, and 7400 - 7550. For PP, the ranges were 7050 - 7150, 7000 - 7150, and 7000 - 7200. Most of the previous values were the same, except for the North China LL market which also had a previous range of 8100 - 8250 [2] News - On Monday (July 28), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $66.71 per barrel, up $1.55 or 2.38% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.05 - $67.14. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.04 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.34% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.35 - $70.45 [2]