| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2512 | TS2603 | TF2512 | TF2603 | T2512 | T2603 | TL2512 | TL2603 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.332 | 102.254 | 105.615 | 105.505 | 108.005 | 107.675 | 115.01 | 114.7 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.336 | 102.260 | 105.645 | 105.540 | 108.035 | 107.690 | 115.21 | 114.94 | | | 涨跌 | -0.004 | -0.006 | -0.030 | -0.035 | -0.030 | -0.015 | -0.200 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View of the Report - After the high - level oscillation in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity - based assets. With the Fed's interest rate cut and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In terms of market style, although technology growth has been the core theme in the current upward market trend, considering the potential increase in Q4's growth - stabilizing policies and the resonance of global monetary and fiscal policies, the market style in Q4 may shift towards value and become more balanced compared to Q3 [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **Futures Price and Volume**: For IF contracts, the previous day's closing prices of IF current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter were 4648.40, 4634.80, 4604.00, and 4567.40 respectively, with increases of 68.60, 68.00, 62.40, and 66.80 and increases of 1.50%, 1.49%, 1.37%, and 1.48%. Similar data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts. The trading volumes and open interests of each contract are also presented, along with the changes in open interests [1] - **Inter - month Spread**: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF next month - IF current month, IH next month - IH current month, IC next month - IC current month, and IM next month - IM current month are - 13.60, 0.20, - 52.00, and - 71.20 respectively, compared with previous values of - 12.80, - 0.80, - 51.40, and - 69.80 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The previous value of the CSI 300 index was 4660.68, with a previous two - day value of 4606.34 and an increase of 1.18%. Similar data are provided for the SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices. The total trading amounts and trading volumes are also given [1] - **Industry Performance**: Different industries showed different growth rates. For example, the energy industry decreased by 0.42%, while the telecommunications business increased by 5.50% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The previous values of the basis of IF current month - CSI 300, IF next month - CSI 300, IF next quarter - CSI 300, and IF far - quarter - CSI 300 were - 12.28, - 25.88, - 56.68, and - 93.28 respectively, compared with previous two - day values of - 12.74, - 25.54, - 52.54, and - 89.54. Similar data are provided for IH, IC, and IM contracts [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous values of 3950.31, 13289.18, 8139.58, and 3171.57 respectively, with increases of 0.71%, 2.02%, 1.81%, and 3.57% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P, and DAX Index had certain previous values and growth rates, such as the Hang Seng Index increasing by 0.74% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - **Sino - US Economic and Trade Consultation**: From October 25th to 26th, Sino - US economic and trade consultations were held in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The two sides reached a basic consensus on important economic and trade issues [2] - **Central Bank Operations**: The People's Bank of China carried out 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27th, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan this month. It also conducted 1.7 trillion yuan of outright reverse repurchases, resulting in a net investment of 400 billion yuan after hedging the matured ones. The total net investment of medium - term liquidity this month is 600 billion yuan [2] - **APEC Meeting**: President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in South Korea from October 30th to November 1st [2] 6. Industry Information - **Fund Industry**: The draft regulatory guidelines for the performance comparison benchmarks of public funds may be released soon. As of October 26th, 176 funds have adjusted their performance comparison benchmarks this year [2] - **Banking Industry**: Since October, many banks have raised the minimum investment threshold for gold accumulation. Short - term gold price fluctuations may become the norm [2] - **Power Industry**: As of the end of September, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with solar power and wind power showing significant year - on - year growth [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The China - US economic and trade consultations reached a basic consensus on addressing respective concerns, and both sides agreed to further determine specific details and complete domestic approval procedures [1][6]. - The US CPI data in September showed a certain trend, with the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of CPI and core CPI having different performances compared to expectations and previous values [1]. - For key varieties: - Copper prices are under short - term pressure, but the Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap in the global copper market, supporting copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - Gold prices have experienced a sharp adjustment after a rapid rise, but the long - term narrative of gold as the ultimate safe - haven asset remains strong [2][19]. - The stock index is in a direction - selection stage. With a loose domestic liquidity environment and expected inflows of external funds, the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. 3. Summary by Category News - **International News**: The US and Vietnam reached a framework for a reciprocal, fair, and balanced trade agreement, and the US will maintain a 20% tariff on Vietnam while working to address obstacles for US agricultural products in the Vietnamese market [5]. - **Domestic News**: China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, reaching a basic consensus on multiple important issues [1][6]. - **Industry News**: As of the end of September, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.72 billion kilowatts, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased compared to the previous year [7]. Outer - Market Daily Returns - The S&P 500 rose 0.79%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.06%, the FTSE China A50 futures rose 1.33%, and the US dollar index rose 0.01%. Among commodities, LME copper rose 1.20%, while ICE Brent crude oil fell 0.41% [9]. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: Positive news from China - US tariff negotiations led to a rise in US stock indices and the domestic stock index. After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is in a direction - selection stage. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and the market style may shift towards value in the fourth quarter [3][10]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fell slightly. The central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, which provides some support for treasury bond futures prices. However, the easing of risk - aversion sentiment may put pressure on prices [11][12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.3% at night. Geopolitical tensions pushed up oil prices, but the overall downward trend is difficult to reverse due to limited impact on Russian crude oil transportation [13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol rose 0.04% at night. The operating load of coal - to - olefin and methanol plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. The market is volatile [14]. - **Rubber**: Natural rubber prices rose last week. Supply pressure may increase later, but weather conditions in rubber - producing areas and the progress of China - US trade negotiations will affect prices [15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fell slightly. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins may have a short - term oscillatory rebound [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures had a slight decline. Both are in the process of inventory digestion, and attention should be paid to consumption in autumn and policy changes [17][18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices fell from high levels. Geopolitical risks decreased, and although the long - term bullish logic for gold remains, short - term adjustments occurred [2][19]. - **Copper**: Copper prices fell slightly at night. Concentrate supply is tight, but smelting output is growing. The Indonesian mine accident may support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices fell at night. Smelting output is expected to increase, and domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones. The market may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke prices rose slightly on Friday night. The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to steel inventory reduction, hot metal production, and policy guidance [22]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices were strongly volatile at night. US soybean export inspection volume increased, and Brazilian soybean planting progressed well. The domestic market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [23][24]. - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and rapeseed oil prices rose, while palm oil prices fell slightly at night. Palm oil production and export data showed an increase, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [25]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices were weakly volatile. The global sugar market is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak in the short term [26]. - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices were strongly volatile. The US cotton market is oscillating, and the domestic cotton market is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [27]. - **Shipping Index** - **European Container Shipping**: The European container shipping index opened higher and oscillated. Shipowners are actively supporting prices at the end of the year, but the market is cautious about the peak - season space. The far - month contract is slowly recovering, and attention should be paid to the progress of the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - Copper prices may be on the strong side. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference for zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Copper - Market performance: Night - session copper prices closed slightly lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 87,700 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 20 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 10,947 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 25.97 dollars/ton. LME copper inventory was 136,925 tons, with a daily increase of 75 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, power grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. Zinc - Market performance: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,315 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 85 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,020 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 187.37 dollars/ton. LME zinc inventory was 34,700 tons, with a daily decrease of 600 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, smelting output is expected to rise, galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 21,205 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,857 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 3.19 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory was 477,675 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,850 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 121,860 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,390 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 15,325 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 194.12 dollars/ton. LME nickel inventory was 250,854 tons, with a daily decrease of 24 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,635 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 215 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,017 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was - 36.64 dollars/ton. LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, with a daily decrease of 4,375 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 283,810 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 2,470 yuan/ton; the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 35,650 dollars/ton, and the LME spot premium was 143.00 dollars/ton. LME tin inventory was 2,720 tons, with a daily decrease of 25 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP remained stable for Sinopec and PetroChina. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment and the stop - fall and rebound of crude oil, polyolefins follow the crude oil trend. Currently, the supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillatory rebound trend [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **LL Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6969, 7021, and 7050 respectively, with changes of - 30, - 23, and - 8, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.43%, - 0.33%, and - 0.11%. The trading volumes were 229753, 23556, and 105, and the open interests were 529187, 62588, and 1136, with changes of - 2302, 182, and 7 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 52, - 29, and 81, compared to previous values of - 45, - 14, and 59 [2] - **PP Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6662, 6719, and 6728 respectively, with changes of - 29, - 21, and - 6, and corresponding percentage changes of - 0.43%, - 0.31%, and - 0.09%. The trading volumes were 229145, 19734, and 517, and the open interests were 608100, 126861, and 6141, with changes of - 10384, 281, and 106 respectively. The current spreads of 1 - 5 months, 5 - 9 months, and 9 - 1 months were - 57, - 9, and 66, compared to previous values of - 49, 6, and 43 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 2295 yuan/ton, 6010 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6510 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Spot Market**: For LL, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7150 yuan/ton. For PP, the current prices in East China, North China, and South China markets were 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous values of 7100 - 7500 yuan/ton, 6450 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton [2] News - On Friday (October 24), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.5 per barrel, down $0.29 or 0.47% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.21 - $62.59. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.94 per barrel, down $0.05 or 0.08% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.41 - $66.78 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Treasury bond futures prices generally declined, with the T2512 contract dropping 0.1% and the trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds also fluctuated, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.94bp to 1.84%. The market risk - aversion sentiment eased, and the US Treasury bond yields rebounded. The domestic economy is still in an adjustment phase, and the central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy [2][3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: The Treasury bond futures prices generally fell. For example, the T2512 contract decreased by 0.1%. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds varied, with the 10Y Treasury bond yield rising 0.94bp to 1.84% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2512 contract decreased, while that of some other contracts increased [2] - **Arbitrage Analysis**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 days decreased by 0.5bp, DR007 increased by 0.27bp, and GC007 increased by 0.8bp [2] - **Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds fluctuated. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.94bp to 1.84%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 28.71bp [2] 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term Treasury bonds increased. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 4bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 3bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.4bp [2] 3.4 Macro and Industry Information - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield rose to 1.772%. The central bank's open - market operation had a net withdrawal of 235 billion yuan, and the LPR quote remained unchanged this month. The Shibor stayed at a low level, and the capital market was loose. The domestic economy is still in an adjustment phase, with the real - estate market remaining weak [3] - **Policy Expectations**: The State Council stated that it would implement counter - cyclical adjustments, and the central bank is expected to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy. There may be reserve requirement ratio cuts, interest rate cuts, and Treasury bond trading operations in the fourth quarter [3] - **International Events**: Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held from October 24th to 27th, which eases the market risk - aversion sentiment. The US sanctions on Russian oil companies led to an increase in oil prices and a rebound in US Treasury bond yields [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss, but smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, smelting profits have turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones, and overall, the supply - demand difference is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects a. Copper - Market performance: Night - time copper prices closed higher. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 86,030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 10 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 10,817 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 11.55 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 136,850 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output is growing, grid investment is growing positively, power source investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak. The Indonesian mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap [2]. b. Zinc - Market performance: Night - time zinc prices closed flat. The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 22,300 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 95 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 3,023 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 225.89 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 35,300 tons, a decrease of 1,975 tons [2]. - Supply and demand factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have increased, smelting profits are positive, and smelting output is expected to rise. Galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly, infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production scheduling is in negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. c. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 21,135 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 30 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,865 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 8.21 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 482,525 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 121,150 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 1,530 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 15,335 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 190.56 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 17,615 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 205 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 2,012 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of - 36.83 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous day's domestic futures closing price was 281,230 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton; the previous day's LME 3 - month closing price was 35,725 dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 100.00 dollars/ton, and LME inventory was 2,745 tons, an increase of 10 tons [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures continued to rebound. With the easing of the external environment and the rebound of crude oil prices, polyolefins followed the crude oil trend. Currently, the supply - demand pressure is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term volatile rebound trend [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **LL (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6999, 7044, and 7058 respectively, with price increases of 63, 66, and 49 and percentage increases of 0.91%, 0.95%, and 0.70% respectively. The trading volumes were 253296, 26147, and 495, and the open interests were 531489, 62406, and 1129, with changes of - 18375, 487, and 194 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 45, - 14, and 59, compared to previous values of - 42, - 31, and 73 [2]. - **PP (Polypropylene) Futures**: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6691, 6740, and 6734 respectively, with price increases of 72, 75, and 54 and percentage increases of 1.09%, 1.13%, and 0.81% respectively. The trading volumes were 320558, 28822, and 1586, and the open interests were 618484, 126580, and 6035, with changes of - 14771, 1854, and 1037 respectively. The current spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 49, 6, and 43, compared to previous values of - 46, - 15, and 61 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials and Semi - finished Products**: Methanol futures were at 2294 yuan/ton, Shandong propylene at 6010 yuan/ton, South China propane at 542 dollars/ton, PP recycled materials at 5600 yuan/ton, North China powder at 6510 yuan/ton, and plastic film at 8800 yuan/ton. Most prices remained stable compared to the previous day [2]. - **Mid - stream Products**: The spot prices of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6900 - 7450, 6850 - 7150, and 7100 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of PP in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6450 - 6650, 6450 - 6550, and 6450 - 6600 yuan/ton respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous day [2]. News - On Thursday (October 23, 2025), the settlement price of WTI crude oil December 2025 futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.79 per barrel, up $3.29 or 5.62% from the previous trading day, the largest increase since June 13. The trading range was $59.64 - $62.20. The settlement price of Brent crude oil December 2025 futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.99 per barrel, up $3.40 or 5.43% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.86 - $66.36 [2].

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2025/10/24 | 星期五 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4574.00 | 4563.40 | 4537.00 | 4500.20 | 前日收盘价 | 4593.60 | 4580.80 | 4553.80 | 4516.80 | | | 涨跌 | 15.60 | 14.60 | 14.20 | 15.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | 0.3 ...

报告日期：2025 年 10 月 24 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评：新蓝图，新起点 中国共产党第二十届中央委员会第四次全体会议，于 2025 年 10 月 20 日至 23 日在北京举行。全会提出了"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标：高质量发 展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破， 社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进 展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。在此基础上再奋斗五年，到二〇三五年实现我国经 济实力、科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产 总值达到中等发达国家水平，人民生活更加幸福美好，基本实现社会主义现代化。 国内商品期货夜盘，原油主力合约收涨 3.48%报 469.8 元/桶。贵金属方面，沪 金收涨 1.56%报 948.64 元/克，沪银涨 1.48%报 11517 元/千克。 重点品种： 贵金属、原油、白糖 贵金属：金银高位调整后价格企稳。俄乌冲突有望进一步降温，但美国制裁俄罗 斯两大石油巨头之后，地缘政治风险再起。贸易对抗阶段性升温，但近期美方有 表态有所缓和。美联储主席暗示暂停缩表，但市场对年内两次降 ...