报告日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 申银万国期货研究所 品种观点 | | 偏空(可能性) | 偏多(可能性) | | --- | --- | --- | | 股指(IH) | | V | | 股指(IF) | | V | | 股指(IC) | | 1 | | 股指(IM) | | V | | 国债(TS) | | V | | 原油 | V | | | 曲壁 | V | | | 橡胶 | | √ | | 螺纹 | | V | | 热卷 | | V | | 铁矿 | | 1 | | 黄金 | | V | | 白银 | | 1 | | 铜 | | 1 | | 铝 | | > | | 碳酸锂 | | V | | 棉花 | | V | | 白糖 | V | | | 苹果 | V | | | 王米 | | √ | | 集运欧线 | V | | | | 特别提示:表格内容仅为可能性判断,并非确定性判断。请仔细阅读屋页"免责声明"内容。 | | 一、当日主要新闻关注 首席点评： 白银再创新高 全球白银市场正迎来历史性时刻，短短数周内开启连续刷新纪录的上涨行情。12 月 17 日，现货白银价格接连突破 65 美元/盎司 ...

报告日期：2025 年 12 月 17 日 申银万国期货研究所 首席点评： 非农有喜有忧 美国劳工统计局公布数据显示，美国 11 月非农就业人口增加 6.4 万人，高于市 场预期的 5 万人；但失业率却意外升至 4.6%，创下 2021 年 9 月以来的新高。另 外，10 月非农就业大幅减少 10.5 万人，远超预期的下降 2.5 万人；8 月和 9 月 也合计下修 3.3 万人。美国财政部长贝森特表示，对美国经济前景表达乐观预期， 预计 2025 年全年 GDP 增速将达到 3.5%。 重点品种：原油，油脂，焦炭 原油：sc 夜盘下跌 2.24%。根据美国司机协会 AAA 的数据，在圣诞节前夕，美国 汽油价格已跌至每加仑 3 美元以下，达到了四年来的最低水平。美国石油学会数 据显示，上周美国原油库存减少、汽油和馏分油库存增长，截止到 2025 年 12 月 12 日当周，美国商业原油库存骤降 930 万桶；同期，美国汽油库存增加 480 万桶，馏分油库存增加 250 万桶；库欣地区原油库存减少 89 万桶。整体向下趋 势难改。 油脂：夜盘油脂继续下探，MPOB 发布本月供需报告，11 月马棕产量为 193. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - Copper: Night-time copper prices slightly declined. Concentrate supply remains tight, smelting profit is at the break - even point. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still shows high growth. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night - time zinc prices closed lower. Zinc concentrate processing fees have fallen, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. Galvanized sheet inventories are generally at a high level. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing, auto production and sales are growing, home appliance production is in decline, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the current sentiment in the non - ferrous market as a whole needs to be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Metal Market Data - **Copper**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 91,840 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 145 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,619 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 165,875 tons with a daily change of - 25 tons [2]. - **Aluminum**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 21,780 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 120 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,883 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 43.33 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons with a daily change of - 50 tons [2]. - **Zinc**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 23,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 65 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,035 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 31.61 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 64,475 tons with a daily change of 2,550 tons [2]. - **Nickel**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 112,290 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 2,670 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,255 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 190.25 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,392 tons with a daily change of 360 tons [2]. - **Lead**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 16,825 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 85 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,942 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 51.52 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 252,475 tons with a daily change of 17,725 tons [2]. - **Tin**: Domestic previous day's futures closing price is 320,620 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 5,820 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month contract closing price is 40,955 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is 50.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,795 tons with a daily change of 125 tons [2].

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | 1月 | 5月 | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 6516 | 6543 | 6568 | 6192 | 6256 | 6291 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 涨跌 | 6522 -6 | 6557 -14 | 6583 -15 | 6178 14 | 6254 2 | 6277 14 | | 货 | | | | | | | | | 市 | 涨跌幅 | -0.09% | -0.21% | -0.23% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.22% | | | 成交量 | 74760 | 300927 | 6417 | 128985 | 303323 | 6466 | | 场 | 持仓量 | 135903 | 510143 | 1043 ...

2025年12月17日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.426 | 102.470 | 105.795 | 105.795 | 107.905 | 107.920 | 111.39 | 111.55 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.454 | 102.494 | 105.785 | 105.785 | 107.870 | 107.900 | 111.53 | 111.75 | | | 涨跌 | -0.028 | -0.024 | 0.010 | 0.010 | 0.035 | 0.020 | -0.140 | ...

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | LL PP | | | | | | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 9月 | | | | | | | | | 前日收盘价 | 6522 | 6557 | 6583 | 6178 | 6254 | 6277 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 | 6476 | 6486 | 6519 | 6129 | 6168 | 6211 | | 货 | 涨跌 涨跌幅 | 46 0.71% | 71 1.09% | 64 0.98% | 49 0.80% | 86 1.39% | 66 | | 市 | | | | | | | 1.06% | | 场 | 成交量 | 131615 | 458385 | 5952 | 271855 | 478514 | 9946 | | | 持仓量 | 150173 | 488788 | 9185 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a table indicating the likelihood of a bullish or bearish outlook for various varieties, but it emphasizes that these are only possibilities, not definite judgments [5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The social finance growth rate remains at a high level. The increase in RMB loans and social financing scale in the first 11 months of 2025 exceeded the full - year figure of the previous year. The growth rates of inclusive small and micro loans, medium - and long - term loans for the manufacturing industry, and technology loans continue to be higher than the overall loan growth rate [1]. - For precious metals, short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases provide solid support [2][18]. - The copper market is expected to shift to a supply - demand gap due to disruptions in ore supply. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2][19]. - The aluminum price has short - term weakening upward momentum, but a long - term optimistic outlook is still recommended, considering macro - level support and the situation of supply and demand [3][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Main News Concerns 3.1.1. International News - The Bank of Japan may maintain its commitment to continue raising interest rates next week, emphasizing that the subsequent pace of rate hikes will depend on the economy's response to each increase. The market has almost fully priced in the rate increase from 0.5% to 0.75% at the December 18 - 19 meeting [6]. 3.1.2. Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy next year to support the expansion of domestic demand, optimize supply, and promote high - quality economic development [7]. 3.1.3. Industry News - Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd., jointly invested by several leading silicon material enterprises, was established, regarded as an important step in the anti - involution of the photovoltaic industry. The planned annual silicon material production capacity of relevant enterprises in the future will not exceed 1.5 million tons [7]. 3.2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various overseas market varieties on December 11 and 12, 2025, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 Futures, ICE Brent Crude Oil Continuous, etc. [8]. 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties 3.3.1. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: The long - term slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is expected to be consolidated. The Fed's interest rate cut in December and positive policy signals are expected to boost market risk appetite [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Loose policies are expected to increase, providing support for short - term treasury bond futures prices. The market funds are relatively loose [10][11]. 3.3.2. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The overall downward trend is hard to change. The IEA has adjusted the forecast of world oil demand, and OPEC+ production has increased [12]. - **Methanol**: It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. The start - up rate of domestic coal - to - olefin plants has decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory has declined [13]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to maintain a wide - range shock in the short term. Overseas supply pressure exists, while domestic supply elasticity is weakening, and demand supports the stable start of all - steel tires [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Pay attention to whether the cost represented by crude oil can stop falling and the digestion rhythm of upstream supply and demand. The downstream demand is steadily releasing [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both domestic glass and soda ash are in the process of inventory digestion. The inventory of glass is decreasing faster, while soda ash still needs time for supply - demand digestion [16][17]. 3.3.3. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Short - term fluctuations do not change the long - term upward trend. Interest rate cuts and balance - sheet expansion by the Fed support prices [18]. - **Copper**: The price dropped by more than 2% over the weekend. The concentrate supply is tight, and the global copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a gap [19]. - **Zinc**: The price dropped by more than 1% over the weekend. The supply of zinc concentrate is temporarily tight, and attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals [20]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward momentum is weakening, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. The macro - level supports the price, and the supply and demand situation needs further attention [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about the upward height in the short term. The weekly social inventory is decreasing, but potential supply increments have not been released [22][23]. 3.3.4. Black Products - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The short - term trend is expected to be volatile. The rigid demand is weakening, but strong policy expectations in December provide upward momentum [24]. - **Steel**: The steel price has the power to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited. The medium - term outlook is weak [25]. 3.3.5. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The price is expected to be weak. Brazilian soybean sowing progress is slightly behind, US soybean exports are slow, and domestic long - term supply is sufficient [26]. - **Edible Oils**: Palm oil has significant inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term due to positive news [27]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short term. International factors and domestic supply and cost factors need to be considered [28][29]. - **Cotton**: The price trend is strong, supported by factors such as fast sales progress, possible reduction in planting area, and improved Sino - US relations [30]. 3.3.6. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The 02 contract may face adjustment pressure, and the 04 contract is expected to have further downward space due to supply surplus and potential Red Sea route resumption [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the context of multiple positive factors such as further improvement of the system, renewed expansion of funds, and continuous empowerment of industries, the long - term and steady - growth pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, forming a triple resonance of "policy support, fund protection, and industry drive." The expected interest rate cut by the Fed in December is likely to boost global capital flow and risk appetite again, and continuous capital market reforms will further strengthen the foundation for the steady - growth trend. With the gradual implementation of the tone of important meetings in December, the positive policy signals and the Fed's interest rate cut will resonate, potentially increasing market risk appetite again [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and the quarter after next) were 4539.60, 4522.80, 4496.60, and 4453.80 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4574.00, 4555.60, 4531.00, and 4489.00 respectively. The price increases were 29.80, 27.40, 28.00, and 29.60 respectively, and the trading volumes were 74003.00, 8279.00, 35116.00, and 7056.00 respectively. The open interest was 113155.00, 20301.00, 118268.00, and 31235.00 respectively, with an increase of 1266.00, 3152.00, 8332.00, and 1133.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts were 2969.80, 2962.60, 2961.80, and 2948.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2986.80, 2980.00, 2979.80, and 2966.40 respectively. The price increases were 21.20, 20.00, 22.80, and 22.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 32570.00, 3336.00, 15385.00, and 2310.00 respectively. The open interest was 47489.00, 6153.00, 33343.00, and 10023.00 respectively, with a change of - 211.00, 704.00, 3314.00, and 60.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts were 7074.40, 7015.80, 6894.00, and 6691.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7174.00, 7115.00, 6998.80, and 6795.40 respectively. The price increases were 90.20, 92.60, 96.20, and 99.20 respectively, and the trading volumes were 82739.00, 13122.00, 44665.00, and 11914.00 respectively. The open interest was 99631.00, 26329.00, 100787.00, and 37925.00 respectively, with an increase of 51.00, 4850.00, 9352.00, and 2326.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts were 7304.60, 7222.80, 7063.00, and 6820.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7361.80, 7286.20, 7119.80, and 6880.00 respectively. The price increases were 49.40, 55.00, 52.80, and 56.80 respectively, and the trading volumes were 126483.00, 16755.00, 56716.00, and 17722.00 respectively. The open interest was 149811.00, 35293.00, 127987.00, and 65089.00 respectively, with a change of - 2749.00, 5989.00, 6429.00, and 154.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current values of the inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts were - 18.40, - 6.80, - 59.00, and - 75.60 respectively, and the previous values were - 16.80, - 7.20, - 58.60, and - 81.80 respectively [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Major Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes were 4580.95, 2994.64, 7169.79, and 7370.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 4552.18, 2977.03, 7082.89, and 7312.00 respectively. The price increases were 0.63, 0.59, 1.23, and 0.81 respectively [1] - **Industry Indexes**: Among different industries, the energy industry had a decline of - 0.52%, while the raw materials, industrial, and optional consumption industries had increases of 0.94%, 0.89%, and 0.58% respectively. The main consumption, medical and health, real - estate finance, and information technology industries had increases of 0.66%, 0.29%, 0.35%, and 0.93% respectively. The telecommunications business and public utilities industries had increases of 0.55% and 0.53% respectively [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - **IF Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IF contracts and the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index were - 6.95, - 25.35, - 49.95, and - 91.95 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 12.58, - 29.38, - 55.58, and - 98.38 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IH contracts and the Shanghai 50 index were - 7.84, - 14.64, - 14.84, and - 28.24 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.23, - 14.43, - 15.23, and - 29.03 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IC contracts and the CSI 500 index were 4.21, - 54.79, - 170.99, and - 374.39 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 8.49, - 67.09, - 188.89, and - 391.89 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous values of the basis between IM contracts and the CSI 1000 index were - 9.14, - 84.74, - 251.14, and - 490.94 respectively, and the previous two - day values were - 7.40, - 89.20, - 249.00, and - 491.40 respectively [1] 4. Other Domestic Main Indexes and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The previous values of the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index were 3889.35, 13258.33, 8020.01, and 3194.36 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 3873.32, 13147.39, 7947.12, and 3163.67 respectively. The price increases were 0.41%, 0.84%, 0.92%, and 0.97% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The previous values of the Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P 500, and DAX Index were 25976.79, 50148.82, 6827.41, and 24186.49 respectively, and the previous two - day values were 25530.51, 50602.80, 6901.00, and 24294.61 respectively. The price increases were 1.75%, - 0.90%, - 1.07%, and - 0.45% respectively [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration issued a notice proposing 11 specific measures in three aspects: deepening cooperation between the business and financial systems, increasing financial support for key consumption areas, and expanding government - policy - bank - enterprise docking cooperation [2] - Multiple departments are deploying to implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, and more incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 to boost consumption, promote investment recovery, and cultivate new growth drivers [2] - The China Council for the Promotion of International Trade will hold important economic and trade activities in 2026 [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, China invested over 700 billion yuan in high - standard farmland construction, supporting the construction and renovation of 460 million mu of high - standard farmland [2] 6. Industry Information - China's artificial intelligence industry has been accelerating development in 2025, with the core industry scale expected to exceed one trillion yuan [2] - During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the average annual growth rate of China's machinery industry added value was 7.1%, and the growth rate in the first three quarters of this year was 8.7% [2] - By 2030, China's natural gas production is expected to reach 300 billion cubic meters. By 2060, the proportions of fossil energy, hydropower and nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaics will be 23%, 19%, 25%, and 30% respectively [2] - As the copper futures price exceeded $10,000 per ton this year, China is accelerating the promotion of "aluminum replacing copper" in air - conditioners and related standard formulation [2] 7. Stock Index Views - The three major US indexes declined, while the stock indexes in the previous trading session regained their upward momentum. The non - ferrous metals sector led the gains, and the commercial and retail sector led the losses. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan [2] - On December 11, the margin trading balance decreased by 6.26 billion yuan to 2490.146 billion yuan [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper prices closed down by over 2% during the weekend night session. The concentrate supply remains tight, with smelting profits on the verge of break - even. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it still maintained high growth. Copper supply - demand is expected to turn into a deficit due to mine supply disturbances. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices closed down by over 1% during the weekend night session. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is in a stage of tightness, while smelting output continued to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply - demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention. Suggestions include monitoring the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Metal Price and Market Conditions - Copper: Weekend night - session price down over 2%, concentrate supply tight, smelting output with high growth, downstream demand mixed, supply - demand expected to be in deficit [2]. - Zinc: Weekend night - session price down over 1%, concentrate supply temporarily tight, smelting output growing, downstream demand mixed, overall supply - demand difference not obvious [2]. - Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, and Tin: Only price, basis, LME - related prices, inventory and inventory change data are provided without specific market analysis [2]. Price and Inventory Data | Metal | Domestic Previous Futures Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (yuan/ton) | Previous LME 3 - month Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 94,020 | - 30 | 11,553 | 20.69 | 165,850 | 875 | | Aluminum | 21,875 | - 60 | 2,875 | - 32.55 | 518,750 | - 2,050 | | Zinc | 22,970 | 45 | 3,139 | 90.60 | 60,350 | 550 | | Nickel | 115,400 | - 3,490 | 14,620 | - 186.45 | 252,852 | - 240 | | Lead | 17,170 | - 75 | 1,966 | - 49.62 | 235,475 | - 75 | | Tin | 318,710 | 320 | 41,125 | 17.00 | 3,695 | 40 | [2]

| | 申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） lujm@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | LL | | | PP | | | | 1月 5月 9月 1月 5月 | | | | | | 9月 | | | 前日收盘价 6476 | | 6486 | 6519 | 6129 | 6168 | 6211 | | 期 | 前2日收盘价 6534 | | 6558 | 6600 | 6177 | 6241 | 6280 | | 货 | 涨跌 -58 | | -72 | -81 | -48 | -73 | -69 | | 市 | 涨跌幅 -0.89% | | -1.10% | -1.23% | -0.78% | -1.17% | -1.10% | | 场 | 成交量 168516 | | 367973 | 5244 | 285479 | 285582 | 3813 | | | 持仓量 | 184121 | 4796 ...