| shenyb@sywgqh. con. cn 021-50582113 | 11.1 18 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5月 | 1月 5月 9月 1月 | | | | | | 9 H | | 前1日收盘价 | 1373.5 1120.0 1200.0 1827.0 1664.0 | | | | | | 1739.0 | | 前2日收盘价 | 1377.0 1123.5 1203. 5 1832. 0 1667.0 | | | | | | 1742.0 | | 煮跌 | -3.5 -3.5 -3.5 -5.0 -3.0 | Eil | | | | | -3.0 | | 煮跌幅 | -0. 25% -0. 31% -0. 29% -0. 27% -0.18% | 黑 | | | | | -0.17% | | 成交堂 | 1006 528830 29614 85 9994 | 00 | | | | | 362 | | 持仓重 | 9220 4668995 87542 784 37523 | 场 | | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the natural rubber market showed a slight decline. The domestic production areas have stopped tapping, and the northeastern part of Thailand has gradually stopped tapping, while the southern part is producing normally. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao, China, has been continuously increasing, and the short - term supply elasticity has weakened, with the raw rubber prices remaining relatively firm. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, it is recommended to control risks and mainly reduce positions [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The previous day's closing prices of RU, NR, and BR were 16450, 13370, and 12780 respectively, with price changes of - 125, - 75, and - 290, and percentage changes of - 0.75%, - 0.56%, and - 2.22% respectively. The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and NR - BR were 3080, 3670, and 590 respectively, with changes of - 50, 165, and 215 [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of RU, NR, and BR were 180678, 46594, and 62549 respectively [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of RU, NR, and BR were 12780, 50704, and - 6788 respectively, with changes of - 290, 1663, and 10 [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The current prices of whole - milk rubber in Shandong, Shanghai, and Kunming were 16150, 16250, and 16100 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.92%, - 0.91%, and - 0.92%. The prices of smoked sheets in Shandong and Shanghai remained unchanged at 18700. The prices of mixed rubber in Qingdao and Yunnan were 15390 and 16150 respectively, with percentage changes of 0.88% and - 0.62% [2] - **Thailand Spot Prices**: The current prices of Thai smoked sheets, cup rubber, and latex were 65.3, 54.87, and 62 respectively, with percentage changes of 2.19%, 0.00%, and 1.64% [2]

申银万国期货研究所 戴鸿绪 （从业编号F03153282 交易咨询号Z0023729） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨 投资者应合理合法 ...

2026 年 2 月 13 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 | | 申银万国期货研究所 | | | 陈梦赟（从业资格号：F03147376；交易咨询号：Z0022753） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | chenmy@sywgqh.com.cn | 021-50585911 | | | | | | 沪金 2606 | 沪金 2604 | 沪银 2606 | 沪银 2604 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 1129.74 | 1126.120 | 20348 | 20626 | | | 期 | 前日收盘价 | 1133.00 | 1130.400 | 20505 | 20944 | | | 货 | 涨跌（收盘价） | -3.26 | -4.280 | -157 | -318 | | | 市 | 涨跌幅（收盘价） | -0.29% | -0.38% | -0.77% | -1.52% | | | 场 | 持仓量 | 93522 | 154552 | 135582 | 198505 | | | | 成交量 | 53698 | 24 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously bullish: Index (IH, IF, IC, IM), Rubber, Coking Coal, Coke, Manganese Silicon, Ferrosilicon, Gold, Silver, Aluminum, Lithium Carbonate, Corn [4] - Cautiously bearish: Crude Oil, Methanol, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Apple [4] 2. Core观点 of the Report - The US non - farm payrolls in January 2026 far exceeded expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%. Fed officials' statements and market expectations for interest rate cuts have changed. Indonesia plans to significantly cut nickel production, which will impact the global nickel supply structure. The domestic futures market had a mixed performance at night. For different commodities, their market conditions are affected by various factors such as supply and demand, policy, and macro - economic data [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Main News on the Day International News - The US added 130,000 non - farm jobs in January 2026, far exceeding market expectations. The unemployment rate was 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025, and hourly wages rose 0.4% month - on - month. Fed officials have different views on interest rates, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts have been postponed from June to July. Trump called for significant rate cuts [1][5] Domestic News - In January, China's CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 0.2% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year. PPI rose 0.4% month - on - month for four consecutive months, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The base period for CPI and PPI data was changed in 2025, and the impact of the base - period change was small [6] Industry News - China successfully carried out important tests in the manned lunar exploration project, achieving a significant breakthrough [7] 3.2. Daily Returns of Foreign Markets - The S&P 500 was almost flat, the European STOXX50 rose slightly, the FTSE China A50 futures fell, the US dollar index rose slightly, ICE Brent crude oil rose 0.80%, London gold and silver prices rose significantly, and most LME metals prices increased. ICE 11 - number sugar fell, while ICE 2 - number cotton rose, and CBOT commodities had mixed performances [8] 3.3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Index Futures**: The US three major indexes declined slightly, and the previous trading day's index showed small fluctuations. The building materials sector led the rise, and the communication sector led the fall. The market turnover was 2.00 trillion yuan. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but potential disturbances during the Spring Festival holiday need to be watched out for [3][9] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds had mixed performances. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond fell to 1.79%. The central bank conducted a net reverse - repo injection of 4035 billion yuan. After the US non - farm data, the Fed rate - cut expectations were postponed, and US Treasury yields rose. China's economic data showed a recovery in consumption demand. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and Treasury bond futures prices are expected to stabilize. Caution is advised before the holiday [10] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The sc crude oil rose 0.82% at night. Iran and the US held indirect talks, and Kazakhstan's crude oil exports may decline in February [11] - **Methanol**: Methanol oscillated at night. The average operating load of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the overall methanol plant operating load also increased. Coastal methanol inventory decreased slightly, and the expected import volume in the future is known [12] - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. Domestic and some Thai production areas are in the off - season, the supply elasticity has weakened, and the raw rubber price is relatively firm. The all - steel tire production is stable. Risk control and position reduction are recommended before the Spring Festival [13] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. The market focuses on supply improvement expectations and macro factors. Positions need to be gradually controlled before the holiday [14] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass and soda ash futures closed slightly up. Glass inventory increased, and soda ash inventory increased slightly. Glass supply and demand are being repaired, and soda ash supply is slightly shrinking. Positions need to be controlled before the holiday [15] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at high levels. After the US non - farm data, the rate - cut expectations cooled down, and precious metals prices dropped. In the long term, factors supporting precious metals remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait and see for silver [2][16][17] - **Copper**: Copper prices oscillated at night. Concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point. Copper prices may enter an adjustment stage in the short term, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need to be monitored [3][18] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices oscillated at night. Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight. Zinc prices may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals, and factors such as the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand need attention [19] - **Aluminum**: The domestic aluminum price is at a high level. The aluminum plant operating rate is rising, but the aluminum - water ratio is decreasing, and the downstream enterprise operating rate is falling. Aluminum ingot inventory is accumulating. Although the short - term industry situation is weak, there is support in the long term [20] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate production and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate production decreased. Demand also declined. Social inventory decreased. The market sentiment weakened, and the futures price continued to fall. It is recommended to focus on trading opportunities after volatility reduction and be cautious [21] Black - Series - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The night - session prices of coking coal and coke oscillated weakly. Mine production decreased before the Spring Festival, and Mongolian coal imports decreased slightly. The demand for coking coal and coke has limited growth, and the downstream replenishment is almost completed. After the holiday, factors such as iron - water output and mine operations need to be focused on [22] - **Steel**: As the Spring Festival approaches, steel production decreased slightly, and supply is expected to increase later. Steel inventories increased, and demand from the construction industry weakened. The domestic policy environment is still good, and steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly [23] - **Iron Ore**: Global iron ore shipments increased slightly, mainly from Brazil. Port inventory increased, and domestic iron - concentrate production decreased. The blast - furnace operating rate increased slightly. Steel mills' demand for iron ore will be based on demand. The iron ore price will oscillate weakly in the short term [24] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: Bean and rapeseed meal prices rose. Brazil's soybean harvest rate increased, and the USDA raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production. Although the data is bearish, the market has digested it. Domestic bean meal prices followed the foreign market, but future supply pressure may still exist [25] - **Oils and Fats**: Bean and palm oil prices fell, while rapeseed oil prices rose slightly. Malaysia's palm oil inventory decreased, exports increased, and production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [27] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar prices oscillated. The global sugar supply is in an over - supply situation, and the northern hemisphere is in a production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and imports are high. The price is expected to oscillate [28] - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton prices rose. As the Spring Festival approaches, the operating rate is decreasing, and textile mills' replenishment is coming to an end. There is still some demand support, and the price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the direct - subsidy policy [29] - **Hogs**: Hog futures prices continued to be weak. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and the spot price is under pressure, which will continue to affect the futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of the daily slaughter volume of group enterprises and downstream slaughter volume on prices [30] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 1.42%. The spot freight rate is expected to be stable, and the market is expected to oscillate before the holiday. After the holiday, the verification of photovoltaic exports and the implementation of price - increase letters need attention [31]

集运欧线：EC下跌1.42%。2月底现货运价大柜均价维持在2080美元左右，测算下来对应1400点左右，实际贴水 幅度收窄，同时市场内含淡季预期，现货层面可博弈的驱动相对有限。周二马士基新开舱3月第一周，大柜报 价维持1900美元，持平于2月后三周报价，未见提涨，对比于2月初多家船司表价宣涨3月运价，马士基3月第一 周相对务实的开舱一定程度传递挺价可能证伪，但由于是持平而非降价再加上当前市场的贴水，节前预计偏向 震荡格局。节后进入光伏抢出口的验证期，同时也迎来3月涨价函实际落地成色的验证期，抢出口带来的货量 预期叠加船司积极挺价，关注节后现货可能带来的预期证伪。 | | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | | EC2604 | 1177.9 | -1.42 | 17204 ...

20260212申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价震荡整理。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环 比回落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家 电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。铜价短期可能进入调整阶段。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下 | | | 游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价震荡整理。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。 中钢协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排产 负增长；地产持续疲弱。锌价可能跟随有色整体走势。建议关注美元、冶炼产量和下游需 | | | 求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 收盘价 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 期收盘价 | LME现货升贴水 （CASH-3M） | LME库存 | LME库存日 度变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （元/吨） | （元/吨） | (美元/吨） | （美元/吨） | （吨） | （吨） | | 铜 | ...

| 申万期货品种策略日报——股指 | 2026/2/12 | 星期四 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 申银万国期货研究所 贾婷婷（从业资格号：F3056905；交易咨询号：Z0016232 ）jiatt@sywgqh.com.cn;15921620356 | 申银万国期货研究所 柴玉荣 （从业资格号：F03111639；交易咨询号：Z0018586）chaiyr@sywgqh.com.cn;18802979529 | | | | | | | | | | | 一、股指期货市场 | IF当月 | IF下月 | IF下季 | IF隔季 | | | | | | | | 前两日收盘价 | 4728.20 | 4724.00 | 4690.20 | 4636.80 | 前日收盘价 | 4716.20 | 4714.80 | 4680.00 | 4625.80 | | | 涨跌 | -7.80 | -5.80 | -8.00 | -10.00 | 沪深300 | 涨跌幅 | -0. ...

20260212申万期货品种策略日报-原油甲醇 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 董超 （从业编号F3030150 投资咨询号Z0012596） dongchao@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50583880 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | SC近月 | SC次月 | WTI近月 | WTI次月 | Brent近月 | Brent次月 | | | 前日收盘价 | 470.6 | 476.8 | 64.47 | 64.10 | 67.82 | 67.13 | | | 前2日收盘价 | 470.3 | 476.1 | 63.90 | 63.49 | 66.31 | 65.49 | | | 涨跌 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.57 | 0.61 | 1.51 | 1.64 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.06% | 0.15% | 0.89% | 0.96% | 2.28% | 2.50% | | | 成交量 | 2,539 | 82,615 | 354,331 | 166,807 | 475,717 | 2 ...

2026年02月12日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.472 | 102.504 | 106.050 | 106.115 | 108.540 | 108.525 | 112.75 | 112.84 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.482 | 102.504 | 106.015 | 106.080 | 108.485 | 108.485 | 112.68 | 112.83 | | | 涨跌 | -0.010 | 0.000 | 0.035 | 0.035 | 0.055 | 0.040 | 0.070 | 0. ...