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股指周报:牛市预期持续,本周预计高位震荡,日内短多为主-20250818
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 06:25
Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Oscillation" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bull market sentiment continued to ferment last week, with the stock index hitting a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3,700 - point mark during the week, and the small - cap growth style outperformed. The overseas market sentiment returned to caution, and the US stock market was basically flat. The market is expected to oscillate at a high level this week, and the one - sided trading strategy should focus on short - term long positions within the day [1][2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Last Week's Stock Index Operation Review 1. Bull Market Atmosphere Continued to Ferment, and A - shares Reached a New High - The bull market atmosphere continued to ferment last week, and the stock index hit a new high for the year. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3,700 points. Among the four broad - based indexes, CSI 1000 (+4.09%) > CSI 500 (+3.88%) > SSE 50 (+2.37%) > SSE 50 (+1.57%). Overseas, the international market sentiment became cautious, and US stocks were basically flat, with the Nasdaq rising 0.81% [1][8] 2. Communications and Electronics Led the Rise, and Trading Volume Increased Rapidly - From the perspective of Shenwan's primary industry classification, most sectors rose last week. Communications (+7.66%) and electronics (+7.02%) led the gains, while banks (-3.19%) and steel (-2.04%) lagged. The A - share trading volume increased rapidly and exceeded 2 trillion at the end of the week [2][9] 3. The Premium of Stock Index Futures Narrowed Rapidly, and the Option Volatility Increased Rapidly - In the futures market, the basis of each stock index futures (spot - futures) declined last week. In operation, short - term long positions within the day are appropriate, and it is an opportunity to lay out long - term long positions when there is a sharp decline. In the options market, the implied volatility of stock index options increased, and the at - the - money IV of the current - month SSE 300 Index reached around 18%. One can try short - term double - selling to reduce volatility [3][10] II. Fundamental Elements Review and Market Outlook 1. The Central Bank Conducted a Net Withdrawal of 41.49 Billion Yuan in the Open Market Last Week - In terms of inter - bank liquidity, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 41.49 billion yuan in the open market last week, with 71.18 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 112.67 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities. Inter - bank interest rates changed little, with Shibor overnight rising 8.36bp, Shibor one - week rising 2.94bp, etc. [69] 2. Short - Term Sentiment Remained Strong, and One - Sided Operations Became More Difficult - In the short term, investor sentiment remained strong. The brokerage sector related to the bull market expectation performed well. However, the rotation of sectors continued, indicating that the main line of the bull market has not been established. The market showed some fear of high prices, but the willingness of funds to enter the market was strong. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a high level this week, and one - sided trading strategies should focus on short - term long positions within the day [2][70] III. Economic Data & Financial Event Forecast 1. Macroeconomic Data Release - On August 19th (20:30), the data of new housing starts in the US in July will be released [101] 2. Key Financial Events - There are no major financial events [101]
午评:沪指震荡微涨,电力、钢铁等板块拉升,脑机接口概念活跃
8日早盘,三大股指盘中震荡上扬,科创50指数走势疲弱,场内超2900股飘绿。 截至午间收盘,沪指微涨0.07%报3642.1点,深证成指涨0.14%,创业板指涨0.21%,科创50指数跌 0.79%,沪深北三市合计成交10934亿元。 盘面上看,半导体、传媒、食品饮料、煤炭等板块走低,医疗保健、工程机械、燃气、电力、钢铁等板 块拉升,雅江水电、脑机接口、辅助生殖概念等活跃。 方正证券指出,A股趋势性慢牛行情有望延续。今年来面对外部冲击加剧、内部困难挑战交织的复杂局 面,我国各行业生产仍实现稳步增长,经济运行总体保持平稳态势,宏观基本面整体较强有韧性。上市 公司盈利当前同样处于下行周期尾声阶段,叠加反内卷等一系列政策利好出台,企业盈利后续有望逐步 改善。此外当前市场流动性宽松充裕,风险偏好显著改善,有望推动A股继续向好前进。结构上,中期 可以关注盈利周期位置底部回升方向,主要包括TMT、顺周期等,以及消费板块的强"阿尔法"特征。短 期可以关注受益于指数上涨、成交量放大的券商板块补涨机会。 (文章来源:证券时报网) ...