格隆汇10月13日丨供销大集(000564.SZ)在投资者互动平台表示，公司与腾讯暂无合作关系。 ...

游戏板块具备AI、内容、商业化模式变革多点催化，游戏ETF（159869）跟踪中证动漫游戏指数，反映 动漫游戏产业A股上市公司股票的整体表现，关注游戏ETF（159869）布局机会。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 消息面上，2025年9月中国手游发行商收入榜单公布，腾讯、点点互动、网易仍位列前三，米哈游进入 前五。根据SensorTower的统计，腾讯在《三角洲行动》全新赛季的带动下，加之《王者荣耀》和《和 平精英》等头部游戏的出色表现，继续位居中国手游发行商收入榜首。点点互动、网易、柠檬微趣名次 保持不变，米哈游在《原神》、《崩坏：星穹铁道》等多款产品重磅版本更新的带动下，9月收入环比 增长33%，排名进入前五。此外，江娱互动、沐瞳科技、壳木游戏、灵犀互娱等排名均有提升。 点点互动延续手游出海龙头，《Whiteout Survival》和《Kingshot》蝉联冠亚军。根据SensorTower的统 计，9月《Kingshot》陆续推出"Gen4Pets"、"MerchantEmpire"等一系列创意活动，有效激发玩家活跃与 消费热情，单月收入环比再涨5%，突破1亿美元，自2月上线以来全球累计收入已超4亿美元 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese mobile gaming market has experienced significant ranking shifts among publishers in September, with over half of the top 30 publishers showing fluctuations in their rankings [1][2][3] - Tencent remains the leader in the market, but its growth momentum has weakened, while Point Cloud Interactive has solidified its second position with strong performances from its titles [2][4] - The middle-tier publishers are seeking breakthroughs, with miHoYo's resurgence driven by the 5th anniversary of "Genshin Impact" and new updates [4][5] - Emerging companies like Muto Technology are rapidly rising, showcasing the dynamic nature of the market [5][6] Group 1: Head Publishers - Tencent continues to hold the top position, but its growth has slowed due to a lack of new major events, despite stable performance from older titles [2][3] - Point Cloud Interactive has strengthened its position with two blockbuster games, "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot," achieving significant revenue growth [2][3] - The competition among top publishers is intensifying, with slight changes in product strength impacting rankings [2][6] Group 2: Middle-Tier Publishers - miHoYo's revenue increased by 33% in September due to the 5th anniversary of "Genshin Impact," allowing it to rise to the fifth position in the rankings [4][5] - The performance of other middle-tier publishers like Giant Network has declined due to reliance on single products, highlighting the risks involved [4][5] - New products and updates are crucial for maintaining competitive positions among middle-tier publishers [4][6] Group 3: Emerging Publishers - Muto Technology has seen explosive growth with its new game "ACECRAFT," achieving a 439% increase in overseas downloads and a 527% rise in revenue [5][6] - The success of new titles is critical for emerging publishers to establish themselves in the competitive landscape [5][6] - The strategic focus on specific genres and markets has proven effective for companies like Muto Technology and Florere Game [6][7] Group 4: Market Trends - The overall revenue share of Chinese publishers in the global top 100 mobile game publishers increased to 36.1% in September, reflecting the industry's vitality [7][8] - Continuous content updates and strategic global market positioning are essential for maintaining and improving rankings [7][8] - The competitive landscape is characterized by a mix of established leaders, striving middle-tier players, and rapidly rising newcomers [7][8]

近日，"腾讯视频VIP账号因设备登录超限被封禁7天"的话题引发全网热议。有用户晒出的App页面截图显示，其账号因累计在4台设备播放，超出普通VIP会 员3台设备的上限，已于10月7日进入第4次账号保护期，至10月14日方可自动恢复。 针对争议，一位接近腾讯视频的知情人士回应称，此举核心目的是遏制猖獗的影视行业黑灰产，账号共享租赁、盗版传播等行为已对行业造成巨大损失。 更有用户质疑，平台将"封号"美化为"安全保护期"，且在两次免费恢复机会用尽后，仅提供付费升级解锁选项，存在诱导消费嫌疑。 据悉，腾讯视频VIP账号进入安全保护期后有多种恢复方式，例如，等待安全保护时间结束、手动恢复、非腾讯视频SVIP用户升级为腾讯视频SVIP。 尽管部分用户理解平台的安全考量，但更多争议集中在规则执行的合理性上。不少用户表示，能够理解平台为保障账号安全而设置设备数量上限，但质疑其 处理方式存在不公，这种处理属于"霸王条款"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reiterated a "buy" rating for Tencent Holdings and raised its target price, indicating that despite a significant stock price increase this year, its valuation remains reasonable compared to global peers. Tencent is viewed as a key beneficiary of AI applications in the Chinese market [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance and Valuation - Goldman Sachs analysts raised Tencent's 12-month target price from HKD 701 to HKD 770, noting a 51% increase in Tencent's stock price year-to-date, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index's 44% rise [1]. - The current valuation corresponds to a projected non-IFRS P/E ratio of 19 times for 2026, and 16 times when excluding its investment portfolio. This is lower than global tech giants like Meta (24 times) and Google (23 times) [4]. Group 2: Financial Performance Expectations - For the upcoming Q3 earnings report on November 13, the market is expected to focus on AI applications, capital expenditure outlook, and growth visibility in core businesses like gaming and advertising. Q3 revenue is projected to grow by 13% year-on-year, with earnings per share expected to increase by 18% [3][4]. - The report anticipates that Tencent's operating profit margin will expand by 212 basis points in Q3 2025, although the gap between profit growth and revenue growth may narrow due to rising costs associated with AI [10]. Group 3: AI and Business Growth - Tencent is recognized as one of the best-positioned companies in China's internet sector for AI applications, with AI expected to enhance nearly all business lines, including gaming, advertising, fintech, cloud services, and e-commerce [6]. - The company achieved a significant milestone with its self-developed Hunyuan Image 3.0 model, ranking first in a global benchmark for text-to-image models, outperforming leading competitors [6]. Group 4: Capital Expenditure and Cloud Business - Based on optimistic AI demand forecasts, Goldman Sachs raised its capital expenditure predictions for Tencent from RMB 300 billion to RMB 350 billion for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, with annual expenditures projected at RMB 100 billion, RMB 117 billion, and RMB 129 billion respectively [7]. - The revenue growth forecast for Tencent's cloud business has been significantly increased, with expected growth rates of 11%, 25%, and 20% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [7]. Group 5: Core Business Performance - The gaming segment is expected to see revenue growth of 16% and 18% year-on-year for Q3 and the full year of 2025, driven by new game releases and the steady performance of established titles [10]. - The advertising segment is projected to grow by 19% in both Q3 and the full year of 2025, supported by AI-driven advertising technology improvements and new inventory releases [10].

Core Insights - The demand for AI servers is rapidly expanding, leading major cloud service providers (CSPs) to increase their procurement of NVIDIA GPU solutions and expand data center infrastructure, with a projected capital expenditure of over $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% year-on-year increase compared to 2023 and 2024 combined [1] - By 2026, total capital expenditure for the eight major CSPs is expected to reach over $520 billion, marking a 24% year-on-year growth, as spending shifts from revenue-generating equipment to servers and GPUs, prioritizing long-term competitiveness over short-term profits [1] Group 1: AI Server Demand and Capital Expenditure - The eight major CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, are expected to see a combined capital expenditure surpassing $420 billion by 2025, driven by the demand for AI server solutions [1] - The demand for the GB200/GB300 Rack AI solutions is anticipated to grow beyond expectations, with significant interest from North America's top four CSPs and other companies like Tesla and Coreweave [4] - The capital expenditure structure is shifting towards assets like servers and GPUs, indicating a focus on strengthening long-term market share and competitiveness [1] Group 2: In-house Chip Development - North America's top four CSPs are intensifying their AI ASIC development to enhance autonomy and cost control in generative AI and large language model computations [5] - Google is collaborating with Broadcom on the TPU v7p, expected to ramp up in 2026, which will replace the TPU v6e as the core AI acceleration platform [6] - AWS is set to deploy the Trainium v2 by the end of 2025, with a projected doubling of its in-house ASIC shipments in 2025, the highest growth rate among the major players [6] - Meta is enhancing its collaboration with Broadcom, anticipating the mass production of MTIA v2 by Q4 2025, which will significantly improve inference performance [6] - Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 with GUC's assistance, but its in-house chip shipment volume is expected to be limited in the short term due to delays in Maia v3 production [6]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Tencent's stock price has increased by 56% year-to-date, with a focus on AI applications and capital expenditure outlook in the upcoming Q3 earnings [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs forecasts a 13% year-on-year increase in revenue and an 18% rise in earnings per share, driven by high-margin revenue sources and operational leverage [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Growth Projections - The firm has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from 350 billion to 350 billion yuan for the years 2023 to 2027, along with an upward revision of cloud revenue growth expectations [1] Group 3: AI Integration and Business Impact - Goldman Sachs believes that Tencent's AI capabilities enhance all its business lines, benefiting from its unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets [1] Group 4: Investment Rating and Price Target - The investment rating for Tencent is maintained at "Buy," with the base case price target increased from 701 HKD to 770 HKD, and a bullish scenario price target set at 846 HKD [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights an unprecedented capital expenditure surge among global cloud service providers (CSPs) driven by the AI arms race, with total spending expected to exceed $520 billion by 2026 [1][2] - Major CSPs including Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu are projected to collectively spend over $420 billion by 2025, marking a staggering 61% increase compared to previous years [1][2] - The capital expenditure is primarily directed towards three areas: procurement of NVIDIA GPU solutions, expansion of data center infrastructure, and acceleration of self-developed AI ASIC chips [2] Group 2 - The AI server industry chain in the A-share market is expected to be the most direct beneficiary of the CSP capital expenditure increase, with the global AI computing server market projected to grow from approximately $39.97 billion in 2024 to $113.96 billion by 2031, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.4% [3] - High-performance AI server shipments are forecasted to increase by 21% and 39% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, while inference AI server shipments are expected to rise by 3% and 5% during the same period [3] Group 3 - The semiconductor sector is set to benefit from the CSP capital expenditure growth, focusing on the GPU supply chain and domestic alternatives, with NVIDIA holding an 86% market share in the AI GPU market by 2025 [5][6] - The demand for liquid cooling technology is surging as traditional air cooling fails to meet the thermal requirements of high-power AI servers, with leading liquid cooling suppliers expected to capture 5% and 10% of the global liquid cooling market by 2027 and 2030, respectively [8] Group 4 - ASIC chips are emerging as a critical avenue for CSPs to break NVIDIA's dominance, with global AI ASIC chip sales projected to approach 8 million units by 2027 [9] - The urgency for domestic alternatives in the semiconductor field is increasing due to U.S. export controls on EDA tools, which has created a pressing need for local GPU and AI ASIC production [7] Group 5 - The investment landscape is characterized by a clash between traditional value investors ("old investors") and younger tech-focused investors ("young investors"), with the current capital expenditure trend favoring the latter's preferences for AI and semiconductor sectors [10][12] - The article suggests that future investment opportunities may lie in identifying quality companies that can benefit from the AI wave while maintaining reasonable valuations and solid performance [13]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Tencent's stock price has increased by 56% this year, outperforming the Hang Seng Tech Index's 44% rise, despite renewed investor concerns over US tariffs and geopolitical risks [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the market will focus on AI applications and capital expenditure outlook in Tencent's Q3 performance [1] - The firm predicts a year-on-year revenue increase of 13% and an 18% rise in earnings per share, driven by high-margin revenue sources and operational leverage [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Revenue Forecast - Goldman Sachs has raised its capital expenditure forecast for Tencent from 350 billion to 3500 billion for the years 2023 to 2027 [1] - The firm has also upgraded its cloud revenue growth forecast [1] Group 3: AI Integration and Business Outlook - Goldman Sachs believes that Tencent's AI capabilities empower all its business lines, benefiting from its unique WeChat ecosystem and global gaming assets [1] - The firm maintains a "Buy" rating on Tencent, raising the base case target price from 701 HKD to 770 HKD, with a bull case target price of 846 HKD [1]

Core Viewpoint - The technology stocks collectively weakened, leading to a decline of over 4% in the Hang Seng Tech Index, influenced by tariff expectations and concerns over AI stock valuations being "overvalued" according to the Bank of England [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Xiaomi Group-W (01810) fell by 7.78%, trading at 48 HKD [1] - Alibaba-W (09988) decreased by 5.2%, trading at 156.8 HKD [1] - Tencent (00700) dropped by 4.07%, trading at 625 HKD [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Risks - Tariff expectations have negatively impacted market sentiment [1] - The Bank of England highlighted that key infrastructure supporting AI development, such as data centers, is facing "bottleneck" risks, which could lead to a significant market correction [1] - There is a notable divergence in opinions among market giants regarding whether AI constitutes a bubble [1] Group 3: Analyst Insights - Jianyin International's report suggests that increased investment may affect short-term profitability but will maintain Alibaba's strong positioning to seize structural AI opportunities and enhance synergy between its main market businesses, supporting long-term growth objectives [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the market will focus on AI applications and capital expenditure outlook in Tencent's Q3 performance, as well as upgrades in foundational and multimodal AI model capabilities [1]