Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate industry, indicating optimism about future developments and recovery in the sector [2][3]. Core Insights - The real estate industry is currently experiencing a phase of inventory reduction, with investment contraction outpacing sales decline. The report anticipates that the "Good Housing" policy will create new pathways for recovery, particularly in core cities, and will lead to a shift in business models from finance-oriented to manufacturing-oriented [2][3][21]. Investment Sector Summary - **Investment Trends**: From January to September 2025, total real estate development investment reached 67,706 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.9%. In September alone, investment fell by 21.3% compared to the previous month [3][20]. - **New Construction**: New construction area decreased by 18.9% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the month-on-month comparison [20][21]. - **Completion Rates**: The completion of projects showed a positive trend in September, with a year-on-year increase of 1.5% [20][21]. Sales Sector Summary - **Sales Performance**: The total sales area for real estate from January to September 2025 was 6.6 billion square meters, down 5.5% year-on-year. In September, the sales area decreased by 10.5% compared to the same month last year [21][35]. - **Sales Revenue**: The total sales revenue was 6.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 7.9%. The average selling price of properties decreased by 3% year-on-year [21][35][33]. Funding Sector Summary - **Funding Sources**: Total funding sources for real estate development amounted to 7.2 trillion yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. In September, the decline in funding sources expanded to 11.5% [36][38]. - **Loan Trends**: Domestic loans saw a year-on-year decrease of 14.6% in September, indicating tightening financial conditions for the sector [36][38]. Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: 1. "Good Housing" companies: Jianfa International, Binjiang Group, China Resources Land, Greentown China, China Jinmao, Jianfa Holdings [2]. 2. Companies with potential for commercial real estate revaluation: New Town Holdings, Yuexiu Property, China Merchants Shekou, Longfor Group, China Overseas Development, Poly Developments, Huafa Group [2]. 3. Second-hand housing intermediaries: Beike-W, with a focus on I Love My Home [2]. 4. Property management firms: Greentown Services, China Resources Vientiane, China Merchants Jiyu, Poly Property, China Overseas Property [2].

Core Insights - The real estate companies have been focusing on core cities for land acquisition, leading to a 12% year-on-year increase in land transfer fees across 300 cities in the first three quarters, despite an 8% decrease in transaction area [1][6][27] - In the third quarter, the land market cooled down as the supply of quality land in core cities slowed, with the average premium rate for residential land dropping to 5.8% and transaction area and transfer fees decreasing by 13% and 10% year-on-year, respectively [1][6][27] - The top 20 cities accounted for 61% of the national residential land transfer fees in the first three quarters, although this proportion decreased by 7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year due to the slowdown in land supply in core cities [1][15] Land Market Trends - The fourth quarter is typically a peak period for land supply, with expectations of increased market supply, but the heat of land auctions will depend on the recovery of new home sales [1][27] - The average premium rate for residential land has shown a downward trend, dropping to 3.8% in September, the lowest monthly level this year [9][27] - The land transfer fees for 300 cities reached 1.86 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, a slight increase of 3.1% year-on-year, while the third quarter saw a decline of 10.4% in transfer fees [6][7] City Concentration and Performance - The land transfer fees in first-tier cities have seen significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19.7% in the first three quarters, while second-tier cities also experienced growth, albeit at a lower rate [10][15] - The performance of third and fourth-tier cities remains weak, with both land supply and transaction metrics declining more than in first and second-tier cities [10][12] - The top cities for land transfer fees include Hangzhou, Beijing, and Shanghai, each exceeding 100 billion yuan in fees during the first three quarters [15][18] Corporate Strategies and Acquisitions - The top 100 real estate companies increased their land acquisition amounts by 36.7% year-on-year, with state-owned enterprises being the primary players in the market [18][24] - Companies are advised to focus on core cities and avoid high-priced land to ensure the safety, liquidity, and profitability of new projects [1][27] - Recent trends show companies forming joint ventures to acquire quality land at lower costs, indicating a strategic shift towards consolidating resources [28][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the real estate industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The real estate sector continues to face pressure, with significant declines in investment and sales figures. The cumulative year-on-year decline in real estate development investment reached 13.9% for the first nine months of 2025, with new housing starts down 18.9% and completed housing down 15.3% [4][45] - The sales performance of new commercial housing has weakened, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 7.9% in sales revenue and 5.5% in sales area for the same period. The sales figures for September 2025 indicate a year-on-year decline of 11.8% in sales revenue and 10.5% in sales area [6][45] - The report suggests that the high base effect from last year's fourth quarter will create significant pressure this year, leading to increased policy expectations that may provide opportunities for the real estate sector [5][72] Summary by Sections Investment and Sales Data - In the first nine months of 2025, national real estate development investment totaled 67,706 billion, down 13.9% year-on-year. New housing starts were 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, and completed housing was 31,129 million square meters, down 15.3% [4][45] - The sales area of new commercial housing was 65,835 million square meters, with a year-on-year decline of 5.5%, and sales revenue was 63,040 billion, down 7.9% [4][6] Price Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing was 9,575 yuan per square meter, down 2.5% year-on-year, with a slight improvement in the rate of decline compared to previous months. In September, the average price was 9,406 yuan per square meter, down 1.4% year-on-year [22][45] Development Investment and Funding - Real estate development investment accelerated its decline, with a year-on-year drop of 13.9% for the first nine months. Funding for real estate enterprises was 72,299 billion, down 8.4% year-on-year [45][58] - In September, the year-on-year decline in development investment was 21.3%, while funding saw a decline of 11.5% [45][58] Construction Data - The new housing starts for the first nine months were 45,399 million square meters, down 18.9%, while completed housing was 31,129 million square meters, down 15.3%. However, September saw a year-on-year improvement in completed housing [58][45]

Core Insights - The new housing policy "沪六条" in Shanghai has positively impacted the real estate market, with significant increases in new and second-hand home transactions [1][2] - China Jinmao has successfully capitalized on this policy, particularly with its project Jinmao Tangqian, which achieved a subscription rate of 164% shortly after the policy was implemented [1][2] Market Performance - The average daily transaction of new homes in Shanghai's outer ring increased by approximately 40% compared to August, with second-hand homes selling 18,000 units in a month, accounting for 57% of total transactions [1] - Jinmao Tangqian launched 160 units at an average price of approximately 53,800 RMB per square meter, with a total price starting at 4.79 million RMB [1] Project Details - Jinmao Tangqian is part of a larger strategy where Jinmao acquired three plots in Baoshan district in December 2024, with a total investment of 43.06 billion RMB for one project and 29.29 billion RMB for another [2] - The project has the highest plot ratio of 2.3 among the three acquired plots and was obtained without premium at a price of approximately 9,058 RMB per square meter [2] Competitive Landscape - Jinmao's other project, Jinmao Puyuan, located in Hongkou, also saw a high subscription rate of 153% for its first batch of 99 units, priced at 166,000 RMB per square meter [2][3] - Concerns have been raised regarding the profit margins of Jinmao Puyuan due to its high land cost compared to competing projects in the same area [4] Market Trends - The second-hand housing market in Shanghai has been experiencing a downward trend, with a 0.74% decrease in average listing prices in September [5] - The competitive pricing of second-hand homes poses a challenge for new projects like Jinmao Puyuan, which may face pressure on pricing strategies [5] Organizational Changes - Jinmao has undergone significant organizational restructuring to enhance efficiency and decision-making speed, transitioning to a two-tier management system [6] - The company has appointed new executives with strong backgrounds in the East China market, indicating a strategic focus on this region [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "A" rating for buying the stocks of New Town Holdings (601155), Greentown China (03900), and China Jinmao (00817) with target prices of 18, 11.7, and 2.1 respectively [6]. Core Insights - The real estate market shows signs of stabilization with a year-on-year increase in transactions during the National Day holiday, marking the first positive growth since 2020. The total number of transactions in 30 major cities reached 4,304 units, up 1.7% year-on-year [1][13]. - There is a clear market differentiation, with first-tier and third-tier cities performing well, showing transaction increases of 18.3% and 24.0% respectively, while second-tier cities saw a decline of 25.9% [1][16]. - The report suggests a more optimistic outlook for the fourth quarter, driven by increased supply in core cities and recovering demand in non-core cities, indicating a potential sales growth [12][30]. Summary by Sections 1. National Day Holiday Market Performance - The real estate market during the 2025 National Day holiday showed a slight improvement compared to 2024, with 4,304 transactions recorded, the first year-on-year increase since 2020 [1][13]. - First-tier cities recorded 1,492 transactions, a growth of 18.3% from 2024, while third-tier cities saw 1,514 transactions, up 24.0%. In contrast, second-tier cities experienced a decline to 1,298 transactions, down 25.9% [16][19]. 2. High-frequency Data and Market Heat - High-frequency data has limitations in accurately reflecting the real estate market's heat due to statistical discrepancies and data quality issues. Daily transaction data tends to be lower during holidays [22][23]. - New housing supply and the number of viewings for second-hand homes provide better insights into market demand and developer sentiment. In September, the approved pre-sale area for new homes reached 705 million square meters, the highest monthly figure for 2025 [2][26]. 3. Outlook for the Fourth Quarter - The report anticipates a recovery in new home sales driven by strong land acquisition by leading developers and the introduction of quality projects in core cities. Non-core cities are expected to benefit from price adjustments and lower mortgage rates, enhancing rental yield advantages [3][30]. - Key companies to watch include those reversing difficulties like Gemdale Corporation and New Town Holdings, as well as leading firms maintaining land acquisition strength such as Greentown China and China Jinmao [3][12].

Group 1: Government Policies and Initiatives - The Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, Ni Hong, emphasizes the need to construct safe, comfortable, green, and smart houses, while also renovating old ones [1] - Nine departments, including the Ministry of Housing, have issued an action plan to develop and implement intelligent municipal infrastructure construction and renovation plans [2] - Beijing has introduced a new tax policy for housing rental enterprises, reducing the VAT rate from 5% to 1.5% starting January 1, 2026, and lowering the property tax rate from 12% to 4% [3] Group 2: Real Estate Transactions and Market Activity - In Chengdu, a new policy has been released that removes local deposit restrictions for housing provident fund loans, allowing eligible non-local contributors to apply for conversion loans [4] - Two low-density residential land parcels in Suzhou's Xiangcheng district were sold at a total price of 661 million yuan, with floor prices of 7,500 yuan and 7,000 yuan per square meter [5] - A residential land parcel in Hangzhou's Binjiang district was sold for 1.264 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 20% premium over the starting price [6] Group 3: Land Supply and Development - Beijing has announced the eighth round of proposed residential land supply for 2025, covering 9 plots with a total area of approximately 44 hectares and a planned construction scale of about 1.03 million square meters [7] - Shanghai is set to auction 6 land parcels in its eighth batch of land sales, with a total starting price of 18.495 billion yuan [8] Group 4: Company Performance and Leadership Changes - China State Construction's project, Yunhe Jiuyuan, achieved sales of 448 units in September, leading in sales volume, area, and amount in Beijing [9] - Beijing Urban Construction's Xi Yuan project opened its humanistic demonstration area, showcasing high-end residential values [10] - Sunac China’s debt restructuring plan received approval from 98.5% of creditors, marking a significant step towards resolving its offshore debt issues [12] Group 5: Sales Performance of Real Estate Companies - China Resources Land reported a cumulative contract sales amount of approximately 154.4 billion yuan for the first nine months, a year-on-year decline of 10.4% [13] - China Jinmao's contract sales for the same period reached 80.685 billion yuan, with a total area of 3.6745 million square meters sold [14] - Longfor Group's total contract sales amounted to 50.75 billion yuan, with a sales area of 3.943 million square meters [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the real estate and property management sectors [2][3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a narrowing decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, with significant month-on-month increases in new home sales across major cities [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the impact of favorable policies, including low mortgage rates and city-specific initiatives aimed at urban renewal, which are expected to stimulate market activity [3][32]. - The report identifies potential investment opportunities in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the evolving market dynamics, particularly in commercial real estate and property management [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data - New home sales in 34 key cities reached 2.604 million square meters, a week-on-week increase of 166%, with first and second-tier cities seeing a 170% increase [3][4]. - Year-on-year, new home sales in October are down 24%, with first and second-tier cities down 22% and third and fourth-tier cities down 43% [3][7][8]. - The inventory of unsold residential properties in 15 cities decreased by 0.2%, with a current available area of 90.1 million square meters [3][23]. 2. Policy and News Tracking - The People's Bank of China reported that the average mortgage rate for new loans was approximately 3.1% in September, down 25 basis points year-on-year [3][32]. - The Ministry of Natural Resources released 13 industry standards to guide urban renewal and the revitalization of underutilized spaces [3][32]. - Various cities have implemented tax incentives for rental housing enterprises and optimized public housing fund policies to support homebuyers [3][32]. 3. Company Performance - China Jinmao reported a 6% increase in sales volume to 3.675 million square meters and a 27.3% increase in sales revenue to 80.69 billion yuan for the first nine months [3][36]. - Other major developers like Poly Developments and China Vanke reported declines in sales volume and revenue, with Poly Developments seeing a 25.1% drop in sales volume [3][36]. - The report notes that several companies are actively engaging in financing activities, including issuing convertible bonds and providing loan guarantees [3][36].

Core Insights - The real estate market showed signs of recovery in September, driven primarily by the sales of improved housing options, with 62.5% of the 24 reported companies experiencing a month-on-month increase in sales [1][2] - Differentiated pricing strategies have played a crucial role, with smaller units attracting buyers through lower prices while improved housing options achieve premium pricing [1][7] Sales Performance - Among the 24 companies, leading firms like Poly Developments and China Overseas Land & Investment reported sales exceeding 20 billion yuan in September, indicating robust growth [2][3] - Mid-sized companies also saw significant sales increases, with Yuexiu Property achieving a 23.54% month-on-month growth in September [2][3] Market Dynamics - The recovery pace varies among companies, with some experiencing substantial month-on-month growth due to low sales bases in previous months, such as Ronshine China with a 132.31% increase [3] - The concentration of land acquisition in core cities has led to a 13% year-on-year increase in residential land sales across 300 cities [4][6] Land Acquisition Trends - Companies are focusing on optimizing land reserves, particularly in first- and second-tier cities, with significant investments planned for 2024 [4][5] - The competitive bidding for prime land parcels, such as the one in Beijing, reflects the ongoing demand for quality locations [6] Product Quality and Market Appeal - The introduction of high-quality housing standards has enhanced market attractiveness, with improved housing options meeting the evolving demands of buyers [7][8] - The sales of improved housing units have surged, with a notable increase in the proportion of larger units sold in major cities [8][9]

Core Insights - The real estate market in September showed signs of stabilization and recovery, driven primarily by the demand for improved housing options [1][9] - A total of 24 real estate companies reported sales data, with 15 companies, accounting for 62.5%, experiencing a month-on-month increase in sales [1] - Differentiated pricing strategies have played a crucial role, with smaller units attracting buyers through competitive pricing, while improved housing options achieved premium pricing [1][9] Sales Performance - Among the 24 companies, Poly Developments and China Overseas Development led with sales exceeding 200 billion yuan in September, at 205.31 billion yuan and 201.73 billion yuan respectively [3] - Other notable companies include China Resources Land and China Merchants Shekou, with sales of 176 billion yuan and 166.98 billion yuan [3] - The sales growth for Poly Developments and China Overseas has been consistent, with both companies reporting month-on-month increases for three consecutive months [3] Market Dynamics - Different tiers of companies are experiencing varied recovery rates, with top-tier firms benefiting from scale advantages and mid-tier firms leveraging popular projects to boost sales [3][4] - Companies like R&F Properties saw a significant month-on-month increase of 132.31% in September due to a low sales base in August [4] - The overall market recovery is supported by strong land acquisition strategies focused on first- and second-tier cities, with a reported 13% year-on-year increase in land sales revenue across 300 cities [5] Land Acquisition Trends - Real estate companies are increasingly concentrating their land acquisitions in core cities, with top 20 cities accounting for 61% of the total land sales revenue [5] - China Resources Land acquired 18 new projects in the first half of 2025, with a total investment of 32.28 billion yuan, primarily in first- and second-tier cities [5] - The supply of quality land has increased, providing more options for developers, as seen in Beijing's recent addition of 22 new real estate projects [6] Product Quality and Market Appeal - The introduction of high-quality housing standards has enhanced market attractiveness, with improved housing options meeting the needs of buyers [7] - Recent policy adjustments in major cities have further stimulated demand, allowing for greater flexibility in purchasing [7] - The sales of improved housing options have surged, with a notable increase in the proportion of larger units sold in major cities [8][9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the real estate industry, with a total land acquisition amount of 605.6 billion yuan for the top 100 companies, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 28.0% [12][13]. Core Insights - The total land acquisition amount for key real estate companies increased by 28.0% year-on-year, with the growth rate narrowing by 6.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [6][12]. - High-value land parcels are primarily concentrated in Shenzhen and the Yangtze River Delta region, indicating a trend towards premium land acquisition in these areas [6][28]. - The top three companies in terms of new value added are Greentown China, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Land & Investment, with new values of 114.4 billion yuan, 99.6 billion yuan, and 92.3 billion yuan respectively [9][16]. Summary by Sections Land Acquisition - The top 100 real estate companies acquired a total of 605.6 billion yuan in land from January to August 2025, with a significant contribution from state-owned enterprises [12][13]. - The land acquisition amount for the top 10 companies accounted for 43.6% of the total new value added in the same period [16]. Market Trends - The report highlights that many previously unsold and stored land parcels are being re-offered through regulatory adjustments, which have gained market acceptance [17]. - The regulatory adjustments mainly involve lowering the plot ratio and commercial ratio, thereby increasing the attractiveness of the land parcels [17][19]. Regional Insights - The Yangtze River Delta region leads in land acquisition, with the top 10 companies acquiring 182.4 billion yuan, followed by the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region with 89.6 billion yuan [21]. - In major cities, state-owned and local government enterprises remain the primary players in land acquisition, with private enterprises supplementing in key areas [25].