Industry Overview - The current real estate market remains under pressure, with no significant recovery observed. The fundamentals are still bottoming out, as indicated by a 6.5% year-on-year decline in national commodity housing sales from January to July 2025, which is a 1.0 percentage point increase in the decline compared to the first half of the year [2] - In July 2025, commodity housing sales and sales area were at 43% and 44% of the levels seen in the same period in 2019, marking the lowest levels since 2022 [2] Pricing Trends - The average selling price of new commercial housing is 9,613 yuan per square meter, reflecting a 2.6% year-on-year decrease, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3] - In July 2025, the selling prices of new residential properties in 70 cities decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, while the prices of second-hand homes fell by 5.9% year-on-year, although both categories have shown signs of narrowing declines [3] Policy Changes - In August 2025, Beijing and Shanghai implemented demand-side policy relaxations, allowing eligible families to purchase homes without restrictions outside the fifth ring road, and recognizing single adults as families for purchasing purposes [3] - Shanghai also adjusted commercial loan rates, removing the interest rate floor for first-time homebuyers and no longer distinguishing between first and second homes [3] Market Performance - The real estate sector outperformed the CSI 300 index by 0.3 percentage points this month, with an 11.3% increase since the last strategy report, ranking 16th among 31 industries [4] - The dynamic price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the sector, excluding loss-making companies, is currently at 19.8 times based on the latest closing prices [4] Recommended Companies - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the real estate sector, specifically recommending companies such as China Jinmao (00817), China Resources Land (01109), China Merchants Shekou (001979.SZ), Binjiang Group (002244.SZ), and Greentown China (03900) [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 25.1 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.09 billion RMB, up 8% year-on-year [1] - The company distributed an interim dividend of 0.03 HKD per share, to be paid to shareholders by October 31, 2025 [1] - The company ranked 9th in sales with a contract sales amount of 53.35 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, a 20% increase from 44.54 billion RMB in the same period of 2024, marking its first entry into the top ten of the industry [1] - The company has focused on quality-driven sales growth and organizational transformation, leading to improved operational efficiency and reduced financing costs [1][2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported management expenses of 1.22 billion RMB, down from 1.29 billion RMB in the same period of 2024, resulting in a management expense ratio of 4.8%, down from 5.8% [2] - Sales expenses were reported at 830 million RMB, down from 980 million RMB in the previous year, with a sales expense ratio of 3.3%, down from 4.5% [2] Financing and Debt - As of June 30, 2025, the company had interest-bearing debt of approximately 123.3 billion RMB, a decrease of 4.7% year-on-year, with short-term debt accounting for 22.3% [3] - The total interest expense was approximately 3.26 billion RMB, down from 3.55 billion RMB in the same period of 2024 [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 1.22 billion RMB, 1.33 billion RMB, and 1.46 billion RMB respectively, up from previous estimates [3] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.6, 13.4, and 12.2 for 2025-2027 [3]

营收利润双增长，销售及土地拓展规模稳中有升 2025 年 08 月 28 日 ➢ 营收规模受益于物业开发及金茂服务提升，扣非归母净利同比小幅提升。截 至 2025 年上半年，公司实现 251.13 亿元营收，同比提升 14%，主要系物业开 发及金茂服务收入较 2024 年上半年增加所致，其中土地及物业开发实现 200.41 亿元营收，同比提升 17%，金茂服务实现 17.83 亿元营收，同比提升 20%；截 至 2025 年上半年，公司实现 11.23 亿元扣非归母净利，同比提升 2%，主要系 营销及管理费用较上年同期各减少 15%和 5%所致。 ➢ 四大产品线全面升级，助力销售规模首进第一梯队。公司通过全面升级"金 玉满堂"四大产品线，在北京、上海及西安等重点城市发力，截至 2025 年上半 年，实现全口销售金额 533.5 亿元，同比 2024 年的 446.2 亿元提升 16.36%， 销售排名提升三位至全国第 9 位，首次跻身全国第十；公司在做优增量的同时， 进一步盘活存量，2025 年 1 月份公司以 7.81 亿元的价格，将湖州南太湖的 4 宗 土地出让给湖州南太湖管委会，实现了土地收储的探索。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13] Core Insights - In July, the supply of core land in major cities continued to slow down, while there was a marginal improvement in land supply in lower-tier cities. Overall land transactions remained flat, with only lower-tier cities showing a year-on-year improvement [2][10] - Major developers such as China Overseas, Greentown, and Zhaoshang actively participated in the land market in July, with strong land acquisition intensity observed in the first seven months from Jinmao, Jianfa, and Greentown. Jinmao and Jianfa also performed better in sales [2][8] - Among the key projects acquired by sample developers in July, the expected profit realization for Binjiang was relatively better, while Greentown, Zhaoshang, and China Overseas acquired land in higher-quality locations [2][9] Supply Summary - In July, the supply of core land continued to decline, with lower-tier cities seeing an increase. From January to July 2025, the cumulative area of residential land launched in 300 cities decreased by 17% year-on-year, with first-tier cities up by 23%, second-tier cities down by 2%, and third and fourth-tier cities down by 21% [6] - The monthly supply of residential land in July for 300 cities decreased by 22% month-on-month, but was still higher than the monthly values from January to May [6] Transaction Summary - The overall land transaction volume in July was flat, with a year-on-year improvement in lower-tier cities. From January to July, the cumulative area and transaction amount of residential land in 300 cities decreased by 6% and increased by 25% year-on-year, respectively [7] - In July, the transaction volume decreased by 16% month-on-month, with a transaction premium rate of 8.4%, showing a marginal increase, and the auction failure rate further decreased to 7.6% [7] Developer Insights - In July, China Overseas, Greentown, and Zhaoshang were active in the land market, with the top three developers in terms of total land acquisition amount being China Overseas (14.9 billion), Greentown (13.9 billion), and Zhaoshang (6.8 billion) [8] - The cumulative land acquisition amount from January to July for the top three developers was Greentown (62.1 billion), Jianfa (61.7 billion), and China Overseas (55.3 billion), with several developers seeing over 80% year-on-year growth in land acquisition amounts [8] Investment Recommendations - Focus on medium to long-term structural opportunities, emphasizing leading developers with regional advantages, strong product capabilities, and light inventory, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant changes and achievements of China Jinmao under the leadership of its new chairman, Tao Tianhai, who has implemented unconventional strategies to stabilize and grow the company's performance in the real estate market [3][13]. Financial Performance - In the first half of the year, China Jinmao reported revenue of 25.113 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14% [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.09 billion yuan, up 8% year-on-year [3]. - The total sales amount reached 53.4 billion yuan, representing a 20% increase compared to the previous year [3]. Market Strategy - Tao Tianhai has shifted the company's strategy from contraction to actively returning to the land market, leading to a significant restructuring of the organization [3][14]. - The company has successfully launched several projects in Shanghai, with the first phase of the Jinmao Puyuan project selling out in 26 minutes at an average price of 166,000 yuan per square meter [6]. - Other projects in Shanghai also experienced strong sales, with the Baoshan project selling out on the same day of its opening [7]. Organizational Changes - Following his appointment, Tao Tianhai initiated a major organizational reform, eliminating several regional layers and restructuring into 14 regional companies [14][15]. - The internal promotion of executives and the establishment of a new management structure reflect the company's commitment to enhancing operational efficiency [15]. Land Acquisition - China Jinmao has actively participated in land auctions across high-potential cities, with significant acquisitions in Shanghai, Beijing, and other major cities [17]. - The company ranked seventh in the top 100 real estate companies for land acquisition in the first half of 2025, with a total acquisition amount of 26.1 billion yuan [18]. Future Outlook - Tao Tianhai projects that China Jinmao's total sales value will reach approximately 180 billion yuan by 2025, maintaining a sales scale above 100 billion yuan [20]. - The company is preparing for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" sales period, indicating a proactive approach to market opportunities [21].

Core Viewpoint - China Jinmao (00817.HK) has shown resilience in a challenging real estate market, reporting a revenue increase of 14% year-on-year to approximately 25.11 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, alongside a net profit increase of 8% to about 1.09 billion yuan [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Jinmao achieved a signed sales amount of approximately 53.4 billion yuan, marking a 20% year-on-year growth and ranking ninth in the industry for the first time [2]. - The overall gross profit margin remained stable at around 16%, consistent with the same period in 2024 [2]. - Despite the positive sales performance, the company recorded a negative net cash flow from operating activities, although the outflow decreased from 3.02 billion yuan in the previous year to 1.49 billion yuan [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Strategy - China Jinmao ranked seventh in land acquisition with an investment of 26.1 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, acquiring 16 projects primarily in core first- and second-tier cities [3]. - The company is focusing on a strategy of "optimizing increment and revitalizing stock," emphasizing the need to enhance overall competitiveness through the "six strengths and three comparisons" initiative [2][4]. - The chairman highlighted the importance of risk management and structural optimization to ensure sustainable development amid significant survival challenges faced by both private and state-owned enterprises in the industry [4]. Group 3: Business Diversification - While property development revenue grew by 17% to 20.04 billion yuan, other diversified business segments did not perform as strongly, with commercial leasing and retail operations revenue declining by 5% [3]. - The hotel operations revenue decreased by 12%, primarily due to the disposal of the Sanya Hilton hotel in the second half of 2024 [3]. - The property service segment, however, saw a 20% increase in revenue, maintaining a 7% share of total income [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Jinmao (00817) [1] Core Views - The company has shown significant sales growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in sales amounting to 53.3 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, outperforming the industry average decline of 18% [5] - The company is actively acquiring land, with a land acquisition amount of 49.2 billion yuan, representing a 1064% year-on-year increase, and a land acquisition/sales ratio of 92% [5] - Financing costs are continuously decreasing, with an average new financing cost of 2.7% in the first half of 2025, down by 69 basis points from the end of 2024 [5] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 72.404 billion yuan, with a decline expected in subsequent years, reaching 49.62 billion yuan in 2025 [4] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to recover from a loss of 6.897 billion yuan in 2023 to a profit of 738 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% [4][6] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.05 yuan in 2025, with a projected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24.2 [4][6]

董事认为本次交易属集团日常业务中按照正常商业条款进行的交易，公平合理，并且符合公司及其股东 的整体利益。 中国金茂(00817)发布公告，于2025年8月27日，公司间接非全资附属公司北京兆兴与其股东方兴亦城、 上海建发及福州裕诚订立框架协议，据此，北京兆兴同意按照方兴亦城、上海建发及福州裕诚所持股权 比例，并根据相同的条款与条件向方兴亦城、上海建发及福州裕诚(或其各自指定的实体)提供贷款。 预期于框架协议有效期内，北京兆兴向上海建发及福州裕诚所提供贷款的每日最高结存余额(包括应计 利息)将分别为人民币19.5671亿元及人民币16.21274亿元。 ...

China Jinmao Holdings Group Limited 中國金茂控股集團有限公 司 （於香港註冊成立的有限公司） （股票代號：00817） 公告 須予披露的交易 提供貸款 提供貸款 董事會謹此宣佈，於2025年8月27日，本公司間接非全資附屬公司北京兆興與 其股東方興亦城、上海建發及福州裕誠訂立框架協議，據此，北京兆興同意按 照方興亦城、上海建發及福州裕誠所持股權比例，並根據相同的條款與條件向 方興亦城、上海建發及福州裕誠（或其各自指定的實體）提供貸款。 香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示，概不對任何就因本公告全部或任何部份內容而產生 或因倚賴該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔責任。 上市規則的涵義 方興亦城為本公司的全資附屬公司。北京兆興由方興亦城、上海建發及福州裕 誠分別持有36%、35%及29%的股權，為本公司的間接非全資附屬公司。雖然上 海建發及福州裕誠均為北京兆興的主要股東，但由於北京兆興構成上市規則第 14A.09條下本公司的非重大附屬公司，因而上海建發及福州裕誠並非本公司的 關連人士。因此，本次交易並 ...

Group 1 - The "Six Measures" policy in Shanghai aims to optimize real estate regulations, including adjustments to housing purchase limits, housing provident fund, personal housing loans, and property tax [1] - The policy specifically targets the outer ring area of Shanghai, allowing eligible families to purchase an unlimited number of homes, thereby releasing significant purchasing power [2] - Following the implementation of the policy, two new residential projects in the outer ring area sold out immediately, indicating strong demand and effective market response [2] Group 2 - The second-hand housing market also experienced a surge in activity, with a reported 10% increase in overall signing volume after the policy announcement [3] - Real estate agencies reported significant increases in browsing and consultation metrics, with a 17% rise in browsing volume and a 14% increase in consultation volume compared to the previous period [3] - New listings in the second-hand market surged by 166%, and new customer inquiries increased by 40%, reflecting heightened market activity following the policy change [3]